Markets and other topics

College Football vs NFL

2014-10-06T09:16:00.001-07:00

In the US, football rules. Ratings wise nothing comes close. Football is not just a sport, it's a way of life. Non-blood related fans come together as one big family to celebrate the fall season.

More and more football games in local communities whether it be local high school games or colleges have become family events and activities for all to enjoy. I am raising two daughters of which are 10 and 7 years of age. Our favorite time together is to go our local High School, Mountain View HS in Virginia and watch our beloved Wildcats play underneath the Friday night lights.

There's a purity in HS and college football and passion that goes far beyond pro sports. We witnessed one of the greatest scenes in Mississippi when Ole Miss defeated Alabama. Oxford, MS was on the main stage. The tailgating scene was absolutely impressive underneath the oak trees known as "The Grove"

This was not just a college football game. It was pride, pride for their school, pride for the State of Mississippi.

Years later you'll most likely not remember who made the game winning catch, or remember QB Bo Wallace led Ole Miss to victory, but people will remember the school Ole Miss.. They.. They meaning everyone there beat Alabama.

So what does this mean for NFL? The NFL is a jugernaut. A corporation that is rules driven, image conscience, and players all driven to "protect the shield".

In my opinion, I would not want to spend my hard earned money to go an overpriced ball game to where drinks are $30 for the family, food is another $30 and tickets run in the hundreds.

There's a price point of entertainment that does get excessive. NFL I believe has reached that, at a premium level. The in-home experience far exceeds the at the stadium experience.

In the college ranks it's not only about the "game" it's the whole weekend. Until the NFL gathers the purity of the game, the community togetherness like local HS and college football and the lack of corporate "protecting the shield" mentality, my guess would be families will flock to HS level and college level games and NFL will start to regress.

Bears mirror image of last year

2014-10-05T17:31:00.001-07:00

Technology today certainly makes the NFL game experience a lot more fun and interactive. If you are a Bears fan and on Twitter, a must do is watch your Twitter feed while watching the game..Bears fans comments are hilarious yet are passionate expressions of what you are thinking but won't say out loud because your kids are in the house.

Ever heard of a broken record? That is what the Chicago Bears have been so far. A mirror image of last year. Poor defense, turnovers and poor special teams. The definintion of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

Bears Phil Emery brings in very impressive talent to anchor our D-Line. Additions of Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Jason Ratliff, and Jared Allen would help bring pressure on QB's.

Overall def ranking is 22nd and total offense is 17th. Mediocre at best.

What stats will not tell you is momentum killing plays. It may seem like just a missed FG on the stat sheet, but Sure-Footed Robbie Gould missed a 35 yd FG, right before the half which Carolina quickly turned into a last min end of half TD.

Seems like this year has been plagued by momentum and rhythm killer plays. There is no good time for turnovers, but it's turning the ball over in the opponents territory and having it returned deep into Chicago's zone has put huge pressure on the already shaky Mel Tucker schemed defense.

Injuries as well has bitten the Chicago Bears once again. Matt Slauson, Roberto Garza, Jermod Bushrod, Jason Ratliff, Shea McClellin, Peanut Tillman, Chris Conte, and Ryan Mundy are some of the anchors of the team have suffered injuries.

Zip up the seam. Big plays on 3rd down have killed the Bears. Green Bay and Carolina have exposed the sub par LB core of the Bears. Pass catching TE's have shredded the middle of the defense. I can't count how many times the defense has given up more than 15 ydd via TE right down the seam. Aging Lance Briggs and DJ Williams cannot cover one on one these quick basketball like power forwards. Once you move up a safety to help then you risk over the top receptions by quick WR like Cobb and Nelson.

What to do? It all starts in the trench. Mel Tucker needs to quit playing a bend and don't break defense and start to release Hell and Fury on these QB's. Jennings and Fuller are All-Star CB's. Use them.. Trust them. 4-3 scheme not working.. 3-4 with A gap blitzes need to be the norm not the exception. The NFC North is not the black and blue division it once was. It's turned into a West Coast offensive division.. How do you tackle a finesse style offense? You punch them in the mouth. Bring the heat and rattle the QB's cage. Time for the Bears to get back to the black and blue. Run the ball, bring some heat and maintain and not kill momentum.

P90X2 1 month Review

2012-01-03T19:24:00.000-08:00

Dec 12, a big package arrives on my doorstep, it is heavy filled with medicine balls, a stability ball, a "rumble roller" and push up stands. I open the DVD's and see the same face as before, Tony Horton. There are two nice books that tell you about the program and nutrition, all I've seen before in years past from doing P90X in 2008. I want to know how is this going to be different, why did I spend close to $300 on a program I already have? I was skeptical to say the least. I could not wait until I popped in the Day 1 DVD which is X2 Core. I see the same warning as before, I see the same list of items needed, I thought to myself "here we go, what a waist" boy was I wrong! From the warm ups and the pure core workout and core stabilization with the stability ball, when I was done with the first workout I knew this IS different. I felt like I was in a training room with professional athletes. I then could not wait and see what Day 2 was like.
Day 2 Plyocide, I know about Plyometrics from the first P90X, this again was very impressive. I noticed that this workout I was sweating more and felt I was getting a lot more out of the workouts than the first series. My body was being shredded but not to the point of hurting like I did the first go around.
Day 3 was a rest day which was welcomed fore sure, but was abnormal because P90X only had one rest day and that was on day 7...
Day 4 I was ready once again, after a well rested day 3 I put in the Full Body Workout with the Ab Ripper X2 workout. Again, I knew this is more advanced, new moves, better ways to modify and complete engagement of the core. After the Ab Ripper X2 workout I was a pile of water lying on the floor looking like Frosty the Snow man with my hat off and a corn pipe lying next to me. The video was well over with and I wanted to just lay there and regain all form of normalcy.
Day 5 Yoga X2...I have to say I was not a real big fan of the Yoga in P90X it was long, it was boring and I felt I did not have that much time to spend on something I could just replace with a stretching DVD. Yoga 2 is 67 minutes, but even though it encompasses familiar moves it does seem to again focus on core and balance. The 67 min does go by quick, plus your body does need to stretch especially after the first 4 DVD's
Day 6 Balance and Power, let me say I have no balance and all my power is from my butt and legs. This will challenge you and you will fall, you will struggle in the first couple weeks with this. On week 3 I started to have enough stability in my core to finish some of these moves.
Day 7 Rest ...
All in all, this is the "Foundation" phase for what is to come. I have to say P90X2 is indeed a great program and I am recommending this to anyone who reads this and friends. Well done so far!

NFL Team's Christmas Shopping List

2011-10-12T13:45:00.000-07:00

Solution to Problems

2010-01-27T10:41:00.001-08:00

Problem: Housing numbers still not showing a recovery

Problem: Employment numbers still not showing growth

Problem: Companies are still not meeting downgrading Street expectations

Problem: GDP is erratic

Problem: Credit still depleting

All problems that are now in the second year since Oct 2007’s financial crisis. We all know the problems, but very few viable solutions have been presented. You’ll hear President Obama today talk about the crisis, greedy bankers, political splits, a call for joint reform, healthcare is still a problem, deficit still out of control, people are still out of jobs, and the list will go on. All finger pointing with no active plans to SOLVE the problem. I am offering a solution instead of hearing about solutions that do not work.

CUT THE CAPITAL GAINS TAX!

Yes that is right, if you cut the capital gains tax, it would induce a massive capital injection into US companies, which would give them capital to hire the unemployed, innovate, which will increase earnings, which then will offset the tax cut, due to corporations will pay higher tax dollars on higher revenue. Spending will increase because people will have more discretionary income due to more job creation. GDP will increase, there will be more of a balance in trade and will allow the government to BUY back debt which will decrease the deficit. This will increase confidence in the market place, and will allow people who are waiting for catalyst to buy homes get off the sideline and allow builders to build and inventory to be reduced, all because of a cut in investment tax rates.

This should have been done from the get go. Instead of all this hybrid stiff you see today. This would have put more money in peoples pockets directly and indirectly and none of this finger pointing and demonizing banks would occur. This is a viable solution to our great Nation’s economy. Pass it on!

Ronald Reagan just rolled over

2010-01-14T11:49:00.001-08:00

What just was announced today, sounds were heard of Ronald Reagan rolling over in the grave. Today President Obama announced a Financial Distress Fee to the largest banks that have over $50B in assets to cover a $110B shortfall from the TARP bailout. All the blame has been cast on these firms , and they are getting penalized again for the use of taxpayer money. These banks have already paid back the funds plus interest and had to buy back warrants. All this resulted in the Fed making over $45B in profits. Let's all remember the banks were forced to take these funds, and what happened with AIG, GMAC, GM, and Chrysler? Banks have already been hit with a FDIC fee increase of 15 basis points on insured deposits. Once again this administration has taken this country into socialism and the heavy hand of the government is playing with people's minds. They are going to ride this bailout train till it crashes, but come November the polls will tell who will be pushed around and who does the pushing. Virginia and NJ have already made their statements heard, MA may be next with the running of Scott Brown. It is ironic as well, these large financial institutions were largely responsible for putting Obama in office with their large contributions. I wonder if Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan) and Lloyd Blankfein (CEO of Goldman Sachs) want their money back?

Complacency in the market

2010-01-11T10:03:00.000-08:00

The theme this year has been so far the lack of volatility in the market place. The VIX has traded down to 19 mo lows and is breaking inter-day lows consistently. Does this mean the coast is clear and we have nothing else to worry about? With a new global economy, I don’t think so! There are Dubai like crisis potentials all over the place. Who is currently holding back that they are on the brink of severe loss or overnight shut down, whether it be a company or country. This newly phrased term so commonly used in markets today such as cautiously optimistic are being utilized by major players suggests to me that the artificially inflated markets have room to move downward. What will happen once Big Government bailouts start retreating out? The crutch we have now are not permanent implants. This administration is also set on overseeing innovation and free markets, which limit profits. The steep yield curve right now will have to start coming back which means lesser profits for lenders, and higher rates in the future. If we think demand for lending is limited now, wait till rates start heading upward, then again profits are affected. My opinion is VIX is not pricing in these factors, and we have become way too complacent.

Major changes hit lenders

2010-01-06T09:05:00.000-08:00

To say the mortgage industry has changed is an understatement. Words of RESPA and Hud are dancing in the heads of all lenders currently. RESPA has enacted a major change in the way mortgages are applied for. Notably is the good faith estimates. The simple one page report with a summary of numbers and bottom line figures, are no longer in existence. A one page easy to understand document has turned into a 3 page survey that shows no bottom line to the consumer and is really a doctorial of things that could be shown by a numerical summation. It has caused much frustration throughout the industry. Also the process of loans has differed. A lender must now show a borrower upfront this 3 page good faith estimate and must receive a “intent to continue” before 10 days or your loan will be withdrawn. Rate locks cannot occur unless this intent to continue is issued by the borrower. Also make note for potential home purchasers is that a firm pre-approval that Realtors covet will no longer be issued, only pre-qualification notices can be issued to write contracts. This could have an effect on competitive contracts and offers. We all must adjust to new rules, but as much as lenders need to adjust, the public needs to be just as educated on the changes, which in my opinion is just not happening.

Economic impact of one man

2009-12-23T10:41:00.001-08:00

Enron, Worldcom, Bernie Madoff, Tiger Woods? These scandals have cost people millions of dollars. Tiger's latest scandal is no different. The PGA Tour and people who make their living off of the enterprise known as Tiger Woods stand to lose a lot of money. The PGA Tour has seen a record amount of profits due to the interest in the number one athlete in the world. Charities, which the PGA does a great job helping in it's efforts, will certainly see this decline of revenue. The tree of the Tiger Woods branches out into many different areas. This list can go on and on. As if the recession is not bad enough, PGA and the entire golfing industry is going to have to deal with it's own financial storm. Only time will tell how much revenue will be lost and the overall effect of the incident. It just goes to show, the old adage is true, one mistake will not only effect you, but have an effect on many. Lesson to learn, never place your eggs in one basket, and anyone who is bathed in flesh will fail.

Looks can be deceiving

2009-12-22T18:13:00.001-08:00

Behind the "good" economic numbers for home sales lies a monster. Yield curve is the steepest in history, which means banks are doing very well by borrowing at 0 and lending at high rates. Spreads are huge. With these good numbers though, you have to look deeper, the home sales are low cost home prices that were bought at distressed levels by investors and reselling them at quick turnarounds. Also people thought the November tax credit was going to end, so, Nov home sales were inflated. Also we saw GDP revised down, but no one cares. Mortgage rates rising is seen as a good thing due to economic recovery, but when all the tools are put back in the Fed's tool belt, is the building going to collapse? Time will tell, but in Q4 expect huge bank earnings which will get everyone excited. Expect good retail sales, but we are comparing these numbers to last year, which was horrible. This better than worse mentality has to stop, and let's start comparing ourselves to "normal" economic times, we'll see we have a long way to go.

End of low rates are here to stay

2009-12-21T17:32:00.001-08:00

Mortgage rates today climbed today, as the Fed announced that they will be stopping their Mortgage Backed Security purchases in late March. Rates rose from 4.875% to 5.215% in two days. This is going to be interesting to see how this will effect the recovery efforts and housing. Also, the Senate made it a step closer for Health Care reform, all the HMO's rose today in trading. Add this to the list of Social security, Medicare, and Amtrak, all government disasters. I do not have to tell you that the government is the worst run business in the world.

Dollar continues to climb

2009-12-08T15:38:00.001-08:00

Today no change in reverse momentum for the dollar trade. Gold continues to lose ground, and commodities sold off again. McDonalds reports worse than expected same store sales numbers which effected the Dow and 3M reported earnings today and gave disappointing guidance. On the rate front, we saw the 10 yr sell off at the end of the day pushing yields to a higher level. Mortgage rates rode intraday and now stands at a flat 5% on a 30 year. Meanwhile interesting weather is going to effect travel over most of the nation, everyone stay safe.

Back to life, Back to Reality

2009-12-07T15:17:00.001-08:00

Markets received confidence today from Ben Bernanke regarding interest rates. His comments assured markets once again the rates will stay low for "extended period" of time. This helped the market to recover from a day in the red. Good news from after Fed Ex after the bell, gives a cheery insight into the future which may have a positive effect on trading tomorrow. Dollar weakened again which led to commodities rising and gold recovering somewhat. Now onto what really matters, did you see the football this weekend? Texas and Alabama for the National Championship game, FLA takes on Cincinnati, and the two undefeated teams Boise St and TCU go at it. Rose Bowl Ohio St and Oregon, which will be a good game. NFL, Cowboys, Steelers, Vikings, Redskins, and Patriots see gut wrenching loses. The two undefeated Saints and Colts keep rolling. Tonight, Ravens and Packers go at it, being a Bear fan, go Ravens!

Rates are on the rise to stay

2009-12-05T09:16:00.001-08:00

This week was very volatile in the mortgage rate front. We started the week with rates at all time lows, then quickly rates rose by Friday. With the better than expected jobs report, with only 11,000 lost for Nov, the Treasuries sold off on all parts of the curve. Friday, stocks futures started up 120 points directly after the announcement, market opened up 1.5%, then as the dollar started to rise, commodities and stocks that follow started to fall. Oil then retreated and the market ended flat. My favorite stocks here would be TBT – short treasuries, and DTO, short oil. DZZ is worth looking at as gold trades starts to unwind. Key of the trading next week will be watching the VIX, which ended at 21 on the cash. Also look at GS and AAPL as they are good market indicators of what the whole market might do. If profits are recognized for the year, I'd start hedging or sell. Beginning 2010 will be interesting as people will try to guess the timing for Fed to start to retreat some liquidity from the market. Fed futures rose from 40% chance of raising rates in June to 70% on Friday.

Interesting Data

2009-10-01T09:32:00.000-07:00

By Greg Nosar

Today’s markets are down due to the higher than expected jobless claims and the disappointing Manufacturing data coming out. The 10 yr treasury continues it’s bid with a yield now posting 3.22%. Some encouraging data though is the pending homes sales were up in August, showing a decline in inventory. This recession started with homes, it needs to end with homes sales. The tax benefit of $8000 buyers credit seemed to have been the catalyst to increase the sales. However; this is scheduled to end in November. Other notables are Airline stocks taking a hit due to United Airlines announcing a stock dilution to increase capital. There is a battle between the bulls and bears today, conflicting data for recovery is setting the stage, but I think the real important number is the jobs number tomorrow, stay tuned.

Market Imbalances

2009-09-30T08:26:00.000-07:00

Market Imbalances

By Greg Nosar

We have seen a tremendous run in the market since March 9, 2009. Many stocks are up over 100% from their lows, the S&P 500 has rebounded nicely. I am however concerned of the over enthusiasm in the recent rally. Looking at indicators that existed in the market before and during the downturn, gold at $1000 an oz, oil at all time highs, bond yields at low, yield curve flat. We see these same indicators today, however the market keeps rallying. The market has been fed by quantitative easing, “better than expected” earnings, which are still off 50-60% from 2007-2008. Jobs are still in negative figures. Market is trading at 20x earnings, these factors have me concerned that the market will give back a lot of it’s gains.

What I am looking at the most is the disconnect of the low treasury yields, today we hit a 3.28% yield on the 10yr, and yet the market is up near Dow 10,000. Somebody is wrong, fixed income or equities, time will tell to see who is right.

The Truth about the Recession

2009-09-29T13:23:00.000-07:00

The truth about the Recession

By Greg Nosar

I do not have to tell you how severe this recession has become. Jobs have been lost, unemployment is creeping up to 10%, profits have been cut in half, 401k’s have turned into 101k’s. Our baby boomers nearing retirement age may have to work for 5-10 more years to feel comfortable in their fixed income setting. This financial meltdown has had and will continue to have extreme effects on the future of business and markets. Like it or not we are a global economy. The US is not the only one that has been affected. Markets worldwide have been affected by this massive crisis. I have worked in the financial industry for 12 years and September 2008 was one of the scariest times I can remember in the financial industry. Warren Buffet phrased it “an economic Pearl Harbor”. Firms with prior successes such as Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers were forced to close their doors, Meryl Lynch and Countrywide was forced to sell to Bank of America, Wells Fargo had to buy Wachovia, JP Morgan gobbled up Washington Mutual, and the lists go on and on. And today banks are continuing to fail at an enormous rate. We know what appears to have happened but what REALLY happened? As an insider of the industry, I am exposing the truth behind the recession.

In 1999 President Clinton made the following statement, “For many potential homebuyers, the lack of cash available to accumulate the required downpayment and closing costs is the major impediment to purchasing a home. Other households do not have sufficient income available to make the monthly payments on mortgages financed at market interest rates for standard loan terms. Financing strategies, fueled by the creativity and resources of the private and public sectors, should address both of these financial barriers to homeownership.”The Clinton administration urged financial institutions such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mac to create plans which would allow anyone interested in purchasing a home to be able to reach their goal. Lenders under the guidance of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae lightened their requirements of qualification to buy or refinance a home. 100% financing was available to clients that had less than stellar credit. Stated income loans, no income verification loans, and no assets verification loans were created. The worst lenders were incentivized by selling these loans.

Pricing for a borrower was better for jumbo loans (loans above at that time $333,700) if the lender put them into a no income verification loan (NIV). For the lender, it was an easy transaction with better rates, less work and easy sale to the market place through Freddie Mac. This created an onslaught of buying which pushed real estate prices soaring and construction was at an all time high. It was not unusual for someone to buy a property for one price and three months later to sell for $100k profit. This was very common during the years of 2003-2006. With all the construction in most major cities booming, many construction companies would hire immigrants to help with the work. Immigration surged with people from Mexico, El Salvador, Panama, and other Central and South American countries. They were the buyers of all the inventory and homes being built. It was a true sellers market. I remember frustration from my buyers that could not compete with the demand of homes. They would call me and tell me they were losing bids left and right due to the other contracts being offered. People were out bidding each other by $30-$40k at a time. Home values were at a massive bubble.

The market was at a point where the “Home affordable program” was not affordable. People were giving up on the market place because it was cheaper to rent than to buy. It finally reached a pointer where people who could once afford to buy could no longer afford to buy. This caused construction to slow, workers became unemployed, and immigrants started moving back. All of this led to massive inventories being left behind. Defaults started to happen first in the subprime market due to mortgage fraud and false documentation being given to lenders. It was easy for people to walk away from home that they were now upside down on. This started to creep it’s ugly head on October 9, 2007.

Investment banks who held these mortgages as Mortgage backed securities (MBS) were starting to see a rise in defaults in their portfolios. This led to now value cutting these securities which then led to losses and write downs. The accounting practices from the FASB did not help the matter either with the forceful write downs of these securities to what is called Mark to Market accounting. Before long the market for these securities was nonexistent and banks were having to right down their portfolio to zero. This caused massive panic and a race for capital injections to offset huge balance sheet losses. This when the people began to speak of the government stepping in to save the day.

Federal Chairman Benjamin Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson, were in the middle of a firestorm and had to somehow offset these losses and not cause a financial meltdown. On September 16 and 17^th, 2008 Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. Lehman Brothers were huge players in the secondary market (this is where the mortgage securities were bought and sold). These investment banks not only had huge portfolios of these instruments, but they were leveraging these investments 30:1. If you or I were leveraged 30:1 we would be bankrupt tomorrow! Rumors around Wall Street were flying around as to who would be next, credit spreads were at all time highs, and LIBOR borrowing rates were getting out of control. In stepped the Federal Government and as people were pulling their money out of banks, they were guaranteeing money markets and were insuring these securities. They had to buy a massive amount of MBS and 10 yr fed treasuries to counteract this crisis. TARP and TALF was created, and we now have the government owning publicly traded companies such as Citigroup and AIG.

Risk tolerance has been neutralized and this has changed the markets forever. We now see this great country founded on capitalism being turned into socialism. Wall Street has given up it’s control to Washington DC. Elected officials have become more powerful than the CEO’s of the major companies in America. Mortgages are getting harder and harder to come by and the “easy” everyone can get a mortgage stage has passed. We now have the pendulum swung to very tight regulations. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae require 20% down for buyers, credit scores above 660, fully documented income for 2 years, a very strict analysis if you are self employed, and new laws and regulations are being made everyday.

In my opinion, it’s too little too late. The once government who is casting blame on capitalism and free markets are the very ones who encouraged the massive home crisis in the first place. Washington DC needs to stop being hypocritical, let free markets reign, let failure occur and let reward happen to those who do things right.