Viable Opposition

Which Nation is the Greatest Illicit Drug Trading Threat to the United States/

2026-01-06T08:30:00.001-04:00

I know that it has been a while but I've had other priorities in my life after spending over a decade blogging about various global issues. That said, the recent American activities in Venezuela have brought me out of my blogging lethargy.

According to the United States, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro was abducted from his home nation and brought to the United States largely because he was branded as a narcoterrorist by the Trump Administration. Let's take a look at the 2025 edition of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's National Drug Threat Assessment (NDTA) and see which nations are responsible for the plague of illicit drugs in America:

The purpose of the NTDA is to provide "... a national-level perspective on the threats posed by deadly illicit drugs and the violent transnational criminal organizations responsible for producing the drugs poisoning our communities."

First, we find this letter from the DEA's Acting Administrator on the first text page of the document with my highlights:

Mexico and its cartels are mentioned four times in the opening letter alone.

Here are excerpts from the opening paragraphs of the document with my bolds:

"Mexican cartels’ production, trafficking, and distribution of powerful illicit synthetic drugs, chiefly fentanyl and methamphetamine, represent a dire threat to public health, the rule of law, and national security in the United States. The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartels (CJNG), together with their procurement, distribution, and financial support networks stretching across Latin America, China, and other key global nodes, remain the dominant threats for the trafficking of these and other drugs into the United States.

Fentanyl and other synthetic drugs, including methamphetamine, are the primary drivers of fatal drug overdose deaths nationwide, while other illicit drugs, such as cocaine, heroin, and diverted prescription opioids still contribute meaningfully to the drug threat landscape in the United States. However, overdose and poisoning deaths involving fentanyl and other synthetic opioids caused more deaths than all other categories of drugs. This exceptionally deadly drug – often pressed into pills resembling legitimate medications and presented as authentic to customers or mixed into other drugs – creates a heightened risk of fatal overdose for unsuspecting or otherwise opioid-naïve users.

The production and trafficking of drugs by Mexican cartels has fundamentally altered the drug and criminal landscapes in North America. The cartels capitalize on the relative ease of synthetic drug production compared to the physical and environmental limitations of traditional plant-based drug production to generate immense revenues. The cartels maintain steady supply chains for obtaining the precursor chemicals, primarily from China and India, necessary to produce these synthetic drugs. The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartels, in particular, control clandestine production sites in Mexico, smuggling routes into the United States, and distribution hubs in key U.S. cities. The cartels work with U.S. drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) and violent gangs to distribute drugs throughout the country, all exploiting social media and messaging applications to extend their reach to a larger and younger customer base. The cartels’ extensive, complex, and adaptable networks present formidable challenges across the U.S. law enforcement, national security, regulatory, financial, and health and wellness sectors."

The NDTA goes on to detail the activities of the Sinaloa, Jalisco New Generation, Northeast, Michoacan Family and other cartels and their areas of operation within Mexico as shown in this example for the Sinaloa Cartel:

The document also outlines the volumes of various drug seizures along the Mexico - United States border and the routes that the drugs take through the United States as shown here:

In total, the country of Mexico is mentioned 121 times in the entirety of the 2025 NDTA whereas Venezuela is mentioned as a threat to the United States only six times as shown here:

So, this begs the question, which nation is the greatest illicit drug trading threat to the United States according to the DEA?

The Strait of Hormuz - The World's Key Economic Choke Point

2025-06-25T08:30:00.001-03:00

One aspect of the recent Iran-United States-Israel hostilities is a key issue that could have significant negative impacts on the global economy. Thanks to the geography of the Persian Gulf, there is a choke point which could be used by the Iranians to reduce the supply of hydrocarbons to the world's markets.

As shown on this map, the Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran, a very narrow body of water that provides passage from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman:

The Strait is between 47 and 95 kilometres (29 to 60 miles) wide and has an inbound and outbound shipping lane which are both only 3 kilometres (2 miles) wide with a 3 kilometre buffer zone separating the two lanes. The shipping lanes are located mainly in Omani waters however they are governed by international maritime law with Iran controlling the waters to the north of the shipping lanes and Oman controlling the waters to the south of the shipping lanes. The Strait is deep with a minimal number of marine hazards and reaches depths of up to 650 feet in the shipping lanes however, there are zones which are unsafe for tankers because water depths are less than 25 metres as shown here in red:

Given its proximity to the hydrocarbon producing regions immediately adjacent to the Persian Gulf, it's clear that the Strait of Hormuz is a choke point for the flow of oil. Here is a graphic from the EIA showing how much oil and other liquid petroleum products have passed through the Strait since 2020:

Approximately 20 percent of global liquids production flows through the Strait every day however it is important to keep in mind that an even higher percentage of total globally exported hydrocarbon liquids pass through this choke point. An estimated minimum of 30 percent of total exported seaborne oil and nearly 40 percent of global crude oil trade exits the Persian Gulf through the Strait. While the Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline running from the UAE to the Gulf of Oman could offset some of the lost oil exports should the Strait be closed, it has a capacity of only 4.2 million barrels per day. The East-West crude oil pipeline that runs across Saudi Arabia from Abqaiq on the Persian Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea has a total design capacity of 5 million barrels of oil per day with roughly 3.3 million barrels of daily spare capacity as shown on this graphic:

Here is a table showing which nations exported oil and liquids through the Strait of Hormuz for the period between January and October 2023:

Here is a graphic showing the destination of the exported crude oil that transits the Strait of Hormuz:

It is estimated that 84 percent of the crude oil and condensate that moved through the Strait went to Asian markets in 2024.

Not only is the Strait of Hormuz a choke point for oil and associated liquids, it is a choke point for Liquified Natural Gas or LNG, primarily produced by Qatar. In 2024, approximately 20 percent of global LNG trade passed through the Strait with Qatar exporting about 9.3 billion cubic feet of LNG per day through the Strait in 2024. The EIA estimates that 83 percent of the LNG that passed through the Strait in 2024 went to Asian markets, primarily China, India and South Korea. Here is a map from the EIA showing the LNG infrastructure in the Persian Gulf:

Here is a graphic showing the origin and destination of LNG that is transported through the Strait of Hormuz:

The Strait of Hormuz is an extremely important and vulnerable geographic feature that has the potential to throw the world's economy into chaos. Should Iran choose to hinder or harass maritime traffic passing through the Strait, it could have significant ripple effects through the global economy by pushing oil prices to record levels.

What is Net Zero and is it Achievable?

2025-05-19T08:30:00.003-03:00

The global ruling class frequently utilizes the phrase "net zero" when discussing the concept of global climate change. While the words seem simple on the surface, understanding the concept and its potential for achieving the goal of reducing global temperatures is so important. As well, we need to understand how other natural processes that are completely out of our control may impact global climate.

Let's start with a definition:

Net zero refers to a state in which the volume of greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere is removed from the atmosphere. Any ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases must be balanced by the removal of those gases.

It is important to note that net zero does NOT necessarily mean that there will be no greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. absolute zero), rather that certain actions can be undertaken to balance greenhouse gas emissions with the removal of those gases through various means. For instance, while China and India may continue to increase their greenhouse gas emissions, other nations could use sequestration, solar and wind power, forests, wetlands and grasslands and other technologies like carbon capture and storage to reduce their own emissions levels to less than the actual volumes that they emit, thereby offsetting growing emissions by the aforementioned nations. It is important to understand that nature can also absorb carbon dioxide without mankind's intervention, in particular, at the ocean-atmosphere interface where ocean waters absorb carbon which is ultimately transferred to ocean sediments.

Here is a quote regarding net zero from the University of Oxford's Net Zero website:

"The ‘net’ in net zero is important because it will be very difficult to reduce all emissions to zero on the timescale needed. As well as deep and widespread cuts in emissions, we will likely need to scale up removals. In order for net zero to be effective, it must be permanent. Permanence means that removed greenhouse gas does not return into the atmosphere over time, for example through the destruction of forests or improper carbon storage."

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that net zero needed to be achieved by 2050 to retain the possibility of reaching the 1.5 degree Celsius global temperature increase, a number that was reached through the use of modelling.

Here is a table from the United Nations Emissions Gap Report 2024 "No more hot air...please" report showing emissions from various nations and regions of the world:

To achieve net zero, one of the most important aspects is to reach peak national emission levels; the United Nations notes that seven of the G20 nations have not yet reached peak emissions including China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Republic of Korea, and Türkiye.

Not surprisingly, there are many pitfalls with the concept of net zero as follows:

1.) national net zero target dates vary widely and are frequently changed

2.) some nations choose to ignore emissions from certain economic sectors

3.) net zero targets are not legally binding

4.) some nations link emissions reduction targets to their rate of economic growth (i.e. emissions intensity) while others do not

Some wealthy nations have also funded greenhouse gas offset projects outside of their borders in developing nations while still emitting high volumes of greenhouse gases within their home territory.

Now for my opinion (not that you might care but I'll offer it anyway). Yes, I believe that greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere are rising. That said, I don't believe that the rising levels are necessarily entirely anthropegenic and that the net zero plans being put in place will likely do very little to lower these levels. Greenhouse gas components include methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbons and, most importantly, water vapour which is the largest component of greenhouse gas, being responsible for about half of earth's greenhouse effect. Here is a quote from NASA:

"Data from satellites, weather balloons, and ground measurements confirm the amount of atmospheric water vapor is increasing as the climate warms. (The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report states total atmospheric water vapor is increasing 1 to 2% per decade.) For every degree Celsius that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%, according to the laws of thermodynamics."

Basically, it's like a self-perpetuating or self-amplifying system. Temperatures rise resulting in higher volumes of water vapour which further increase temperature which further increases atmospheric water vapour content etcetera ad infinitum.

Let's look at two of the many reasons why net zero may be unachievable. Climate is likely influenced by solar activity, a controversial phenomenon which is being studied by scientists and is not fully understood as shown in this study:

Volcanic eruptions can also have a significant impact on global climate since they emit carbon dioxide, particulate matter and, in the case of submarine volcanoes, water vapour, into the atmosphere as shown in this study:

The January 2022 Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha'apai eruption in Tonga is estimated to have released 150 million metric tons of water vapour along with 0.5 to 1.5 metric megatons of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, raising the global levels of stratospheric water vapour by 10 percent. In this case, the eruption resulted in a temporary but notable cooling of the tropical stratosphere.

The massive eruption of Krakatoa in 1883 in Indonesia caused oceans to cool for nearly a century and had a significant impact on atmospheric temperatures as well. Volcanic carbon dioxide does have the potential to promote global warming whereas volcanic sulphur dioxide has the potential to lower global temperatures so the impact of volcanic eruptions on the global climate is heavily impacted by the type of gases contained in the eruptions.

Here is a diagram showing how volcanic gases interact with the atmosphere:

There are many natural processes that will impact global climate, some over the short- and medium-term and some over the long-term and these processes are currently being studied to better understand how they impact global temperatures. Our politicians would have us believe that there is a simple solution to the global climate "crisis"; reaching net zero through the adoption of heat pumps, electric vehicles and carbon taxation. As you can see from the information that I have provided in this posting, the earth's atmosphere is an extremely complex system with some of the potential climate-impacting processes being totally uncontrollable by humanity. That is why I believe that net zero is a fallacy being perpetrated on us by individuals with a climate emergency agenda that is not necessarily in our best interest but is in the best interest of the "global few".