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pn965. Raj Prasads' Submission to the Fiji Truth and Reconciliation Commission - Essential reading

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 00:11:00 +0000

My submissions seek to illuminate aspects of Fiji’s history that have long remained obscured or deliberately omitted from mainstream narratives. These omissions have had serious consequences. They have fostered profound misconceptions about our past, allowed racial injustice to take root and contributed directly to the erosion of Fiji’s fragile democratic foundations.

Over many years, I have undertaken extensive independent research into Fiji’s history, including the Girmit period, the post-Girmit era, and the evolution of political leadership and governance. This work culminated in two published books: Tears in Paradise – Suffering and Struggles of Indians in Fiji 1879–2004 and Enslaved in Paradise – A History of Mammoth Betrayals of Fijians by the British, Chiefs and Leaders of Fiji 1876–2006. I am not an academic historian; however, my research was conducted rigorously and conscientiously, with the objective of recovering suppressed histories and explaining why racism became embedded at the core of Fiji’s political life and why Indo-Fijians were systematically marginalised and treated as second-class citizens for generations.

The history presented in my work differs markedly from that taught in Fiji’s schools and universities. Much of the official curriculum reflects a colonial narrative that sanitises colonial rule while excluding the brutal realities endured by Indian indentured labourers, the subsequent exploitation of Indo-Fijian farmers and the systematic subjugation of iTaukei communities through communal controls enforced under colonial authority. These distortions denied generations their historical truth and obscured accountability.

A recurring theme in my submissions is the role of a particular institution—created and empowered under British colonial rule—which, in my considered view, has caused enduring harm to Fiji’s democratic development. Genuine democracy, racial harmony and national unity cannot flourish while this legacy remains entrenched in governance.

I regret that I am unable to appear before the Commission due to a terminal medical diagnosis and specialist advice against travel or undue mental and physical strain. Nevertheless, I wish to assure the Commission that my submissions are supported by extensive documentary evidence and verifiable references, capable of withstanding rigorous scrutiny.

I submit this material in good faith, not to inflame division, but to assist the Commission in confronting truth honestly. Only through such reckoning can Fiji hope to secure a just, united, and democratic future for all its people.

The Chairperson, Dr Marcus Brand, Fiji Truth and Reconciliation Commission, 78 Berkeley Crescent, Suva, Fiji.

Honourable Chairperson,

I respectfully submit this written statement to the Fiji Truth and Reconciliation Commission in support of its mandate to promote admission, establish truth and advance genuine national reconciliation. This submission is intended to assist the Commission in examining the historical and structural causes of enduring political, social and economic injustices in Fiji.

To continue, paste the following on your url line:

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pn964. Poll controlled by Big Business, not Balanced or Impartial

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Thu, 25 Sep 2025 01:38:00 +0000

Integrity Briefing

Integrity Briefing: The Boardroom's Manifesto - How NZ's corporate elite lobbies in plain sight

Bryce Edwards

Sep 24, 2025

Each year, the New Zealand Herald’s “Mood of the Boardroom” survey offers a meticulously curated glimpse into the political psyche of the nation’s corporate elite. It is presented as a neutral snapshot of opinion, a barometer of business confidence. Yet, to read it as such is to miss its primary function. The survey is not a passive reflection of a “mood”; it is an actively constructed piece of political communication, a public-facing manifesto for a sophisticated and concerted lobbying effort.

The 2025 edition, surveying 150 of the country’s top chief executives and directors, lays bare an agenda from a powerful, unified, and increasingly impatient elite. With CEO confidence in the New Zealand economy plummeting from a nine-year high of 3.23/5 last year to just 2.81/5, the message is clear: the status quo is unacceptable, and change is demanded.

This is more than just sentiment; it is a political tool used to broadcast a specific policy mandate and apply immense pressure on the government. The survey’s very existence, sponsored by many of the same corporations whose leaders are surveyed — including Deloitte, Foodstuffs, Westpac, and the powerful lobby group BusinessNZ — represents a form of self-reinforcing “soft lobbying”. Business interests fund a platform that legitimises and amplifies their own policy demands, framing them as the consensus view of “the boardroom” and, by extension, the national economic interest.

This column deconstructs that mandate, revealing what the business elite is lobbying for and how it prosecutes its agenda in the corridors of power.

The CEO Wishlist: A Blueprint for a corporate-centric state

While framed in the language of national interest and economic growth, the policy agenda pushed by the business lobby is highly self-serving. It is a blueprint designed to reduce corporate costs, shift risk onto the public balance sheet, and create new, state-guaranteed opportunities for private profit.

The Austerity-infrastructure paradox & the CGT ploy

The central pillar of the boardroom’s agenda is a call for fierce fiscal restraint, but one that is applied selectively. There is an overwhelming demand to rein in government spending, with one CEO summarising the mood by stating, “New Zealand’s fiscal challenge is not inadequate revenue but runaway expenditure”. This sentiment is backed by the numbers, with concern around the “efficacy of government spending” nearly doubling among CEOs from 16% last year to 31%. The prescription is to “focus on essential services” and live within current tax settings.

This call for austerity is paired with vehement opposition to any new taxes that might fall on business or accumulated wealth. A wealth tax remains deeply unpopular, with 81% opposed to its introduction. Similarly, 76% reject gift and estate duties, and a 75% majority opposes any increase in the overall tax take from businesses.

Yet, this fiscal hawkishness contains a profound contradiction. While demanding spending cuts, the business elite simultaneously makes urgent, cross-sectoral calls for a massive, state-facilitated infrastructure pipeline, with one CEO demanding “delivery needed, not just more announcements”. The question of how to pay for this is answered with a strategic pivot. A surprising 61% of CEOs now support “broadening the tax on asset gains”.

This is not a sudden conversion to the principles of tax fairness. It is a pragmatic calculation. A more detailed breakdown reveals only 34% support a capital gains tax (CGT) in principle, with 47% opposed, showing the support is highly conditional. A CGT is seen as the only politically viable mechanism to raise the revenue needed for the infrastructure they demand, and it is a tax they believe they can lobby to shape to their advantage — far preferable to a wealth tax. As one respondent noted, a CGT could be considered if it were part of a “tax rebalancing” that lifted the economy, a clear signal that any such tax must be accompanied by corporate-friendly concessions.

This agenda is complemented by a strong push for superannuation reform. A clear majority supports targeting superannuation by increasing the age of eligibility. Fisher Funds CEO Simon Power, a former National Party minister, explicitly calls for “bolder superannuation reform”, arguing for a long-term plan to increase employer KiwiSaver contributions, moving closer to Australia’s model.

The strategy is coherent: secure state-backed investment in profitable infrastructure while lobbying to reduce the state’s long-term social liabilities and minimising their own direct contribution to the bill. It is a textbook case of socialising risk while privatising profit.

The War on “Red Tape”: Redefining regulation as obstruction

A constant refrain throughout the survey is the need to remove regulatory roadblocks. “Reduce the regulation. Get out of the way”, demands Mainfreight managing director Don Braid. This sentiment is echoed across industries, from Pernod Ricard’s Kevin Mapson highlighting nine-month waits for hospitality licences to BusinessNZ CEO Katherine Rich targeting sector-specific rules that are “holding them back”.

The primary target of this frustration is the Resource Management Act (RMA). The most visceral expression of this comes from Port of Tauranga CEO Leonard Sampson, who details a seven-year battle to gain consent for a critical wharf expansion. He describes the process, which is being challenged by local hapu, as “enormously frustrating” and claims it can be “hijacked”.

This language is revealing. The use of “hijacked” deliberately reframes democratic consultation and the recognition of Treaty partner interests not as legitimate parts of the process, but as illegitimate and hostile obstacles to commercial progress. This rhetoric serves to build a public narrative that the RMA is broken, creating political momentum for reforms like the Fast-track Bill that weaken these consultation rights. The “war on red tape”, therefore, is not merely a technocratic push for efficiency. It is an ideological project to redefine the purpose of regulation itself — from a tool for balancing competing public, private, and environmental interests to a mechanism for enabling private development with minimal friction.

The Bipartisan ploy: Insulating profits from democracy

The demand for an infrastructure overhaul is universal and urgent. Westpac New Zealand chief executive Catherine McGrath calls for a “bipartisan path” on critical projects to give the private sector the certainty it needs to invest. Dentons chairman Hayden Wilson laments the lack of a cohesive strategy, urging investment for the “largest return over the longest time” and warning that a new government might “throw everything out, and start again”.

The call for “bipartisanship” is a particularly astute lobbying tactic. While sounding eminently reasonable, its practical effect is to de-politicise multi-billion-dollar investment decisions, locking in a multi-decade pipeline of projects that will be highly profitable for the construction, engineering, finance, and consulting sectors. In this context, “certainty” is a euphemism for guaranteed, low-risk, long-term returns underwritten by the taxpayer. Once a 30-year plan is agreed upon by the major parties, it becomes insulated from the vagaries of electoral cycles and changing public priorities. This creates a stable, low-risk environment for private capital, with firms like Aurecon and banks like Westpac positioned to secure long-term, state-underwritten returns. It is a strategy to secure guaranteed profits with public backing, shielded from democratic accountability.

The Political scorecard: A Public flogging

The survey’s numerical ratings of politicians should not be read as a simple popularity contest, but as a sophisticated and public performance management system. The boardroom is using its collective voice to punish leaders who fail to deliver on its agenda and strategically reward those whose portfolios and actions are directly aligned with its interests.

Censuring the leadership: “God Help New Zealand”

The verdict on the government’s leadership is brutal. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, a former CEO himself, receives a shocking ranking of 15th out of 28 ministers, with his score plummeting from 3.73/5 last year to just 2.96/5. Finance Minister Nicola Willis fares little better, ranked 13th with a score of 3.09/5, a sharp fall from 3.88/5.

The commentary is just as damning. Luxon is criticised for being “not a good listener” and for failing to use his much-vaunted business “Rolodex”. One chairperson was quoted saying: “Luxon has been a disappointment. The public don’t like him. It’s too late for him. He needs to stand aside or be removed by his colleagues. Otherwise we will end up with the completely looney tune of Labour with the very left Greens and radical Māori party. God help New Zealand”. Willis is accused of chasing “cheap politics” over the price of butter and delivering “spin without substance”, with 43% of business leaders believing her growth agenda is failing.

This public humiliation in a high-profile survey is a deliberate act of political pressure. The results are strategically released to generate maximum media impact, fuelling narratives of a leadership crisis and forcing the Prime Minister and Finance Minister to spend their time defending their positions rather than advancing their agenda. It is a warning shot intended to force a change in direction or personnel.

Anointing the deliverers & The opposition vacuum

In stark contrast to the leaders, specific ministers whose portfolios are critical to the business agenda are lauded. Education and Immigration Minister Erica Stanford is ranked number one with a stellar 4.38/5, praised for her “superb” leadership and clear policy programme addressing skills and labour supply.

Infrastructure and RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop is ranked third (3.80/5), and Trade Minister Todd McClay is fourth (3.74/5). By elevating these ministers far above the Prime Minister, the business community is sending a clear signal about who holds real power and whose agenda should be prioritised in Cabinet.

This pressure is amplified by the perceived lack of a credible alternative. The Opposition is rated abysmally. Labour leader Chris Hipkins scores a derisory 2.01/5, with his frontbench dismissed as “largely anonymous” “invisible”, and “hopeless”. The Green Party co-leaders fare even worse – Chlöe Swarbrick is rated 1.72, Marama Davidson 1.45 – and Te Pāti Māori co-leaders sink even lower, around 1.3.

With the centre-left deemed feeble and ineffectual by the corporate class, Luxon’s government knows it is under pressure only from its right flank – the business lobby and its political allies. There is no political cost for acceding to the boardroom’s demands, turning the political contest into a one-sided negotiation between the government and its corporate backers.

The Mechanics of influence and the façade of democracy

The “mood” expressed in the survey is prosecuted through concrete demands for institutionalised political influence, embedding corporate perspectives at the heart of executive decision-making.

Formalising the backdoor: A Demand for institutionalised access

The desire for direct, privileged access to power is explicit. A significant 69% of survey respondents want the Prime Minister’s Business Advisory Council reinstated — a call for a formalised, high-level channel of influence. Furthermore, 68% support reviving a formal decision-making partnership between business, government, and other sector leaders. The Institute of Directors justifies this by arguing, “New Zealand’s challenges are too complex for the Government to solve on its own. We need a genuine partnership”.

While sounding inclusive, these proposed bodies would give a small, unelected group of CEOs privileged status in policy formation. This is layered on top of existing access through lobby groups like BusinessNZ and corporate-funded think tanks like The New Zealand Initiative, which one CEO explicitly credits for insights from an international trip. The language of “partnership” is co-opted to make privileged access look like good governance.

The “Not Representative” defence: An Inadvertent confession

Faced with this damning report card, both Luxon and Willis adopted a defensive posture. Willis stated, “I respect the 150 people in this room deeply, but you are not broadly representative of the five million people we serve”. Luxon echoed this, saying his job was to think about the “5 million people living in this country not just the 150 filling in the survey”.

This defence was immediately and publicly rebutted by Foodstuffs North Island CEO Chris Quin. “It’s really important that we don’t think that we’re not connected with the five million New Zealanders. We absolutely are”, he argued. “Every one of the people in this room that runs a business... has a pretty good feel for how they’re feeling”.

The exchange exposes the central contradiction of the entire affair. If the government truly believes the survey is unrepresentative, why does it command so much media attention, and why do senior ministers feel compelled to attend its launch and respond to its findings in detail?

The Government’s actions betray its words. It treats the “Mood of the Boardroom” as a vital political event even while publicly claiming its participants are just another interest group. This is an inadvertent confession of the immense de facto power this lobby holds.

Conclusion: Whose mood governs New Zealand?

The 2025 Mood of the Boardroom survey is not a benign academic exercise. It is a public declaration of a lobbying agenda from a powerful and impatient elite. It reveals a clear blueprint for policy change: a state that cuts social spending but underwrites private infrastructure investment; a regulatory environment that prioritises commercial speed over community and environmental protection; and a tax system that continues to favour capital over labour and income.

The survey demonstrates that the business community has the access, the financial clout, and the coordinated strategy to see its blueprint enacted. It uses its platform to publicly manage the government’s performance, punishing leaders for perceived failures and rewarding ministers who deliver on its priorities. This agenda is then pursued through demands for institutionalised backdoor channels that would embed corporate power at the heart of the state.

The immense political and media weight given to the “Mood of the Boardroom” stands in stark contrast to the relative powerlessness of ordinary citizens. It forces a critical question for the integrity of our democracy. While we have an exhaustive, multi-part analysis of what the country’s CEOs are thinking, where is the report on the “Mood of the Waiting Room”, the “Mood of the Staffroom”, or the “Mood of the Foodbank?”. The answer, it seems, is that in the contest of ideas and influence, some moods matter far more than others.

Dr Bryce Edwards

Director of The Integrity Institute:

pn964 New Poll on Capital Gains Tax shows NZ Divided

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Thu, 18 Sep 2025 06:14:00 +0000

olitics RNZ-Reid Research Poll

7:04 am today

RNZ-Reid Research poll: Where the public stands on capital gains tax

7:04 am today

Russell Palmer, Political Reporter

Photo: RNZ

Capital gains tax finds some backing among voters

Morning Report18 September 2025

More of the public want a capital gains tax than oppose the idea - assuming the family home is exempt - but it's not by a huge margin.

The support almost entirely vanishes if the family home's included, and party supporters' views on it are much less firm - on both sides of politics - than their leaders seem to be.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll asked: Do you support or oppose the introduction of a capital gains tax on properties, excluding the family home?

More than 42 percent said they did, but more than a third opposed it - with less than 7 percentage points in it, the electorate's clearly got mixed feelings.

There is some room for persuasion too - both for and against - with about 20 percent unsure about the policy.

The results are more stark when the family home is included, with just 11 percent support and more than 70 percent opposed.

Labour has been contemplating its tax policy since losing the 2023 election.

The party pitched a CGT in 2011 under Phil Goff and again in 2014 under David Cunliffe - but lost both elections against the incumbent Prime Minister John Key, whose "show me the money" quip in a debate against Goff was broadly regarded as a death knell for the policy at the time.

Goff now said the policy was not the main reason for those losses.

"Oppositions are always at risk of when they make an undertaking to spend money to show where that money is coming from," he told RNZ.

"I think there are a multitude of reasons why Labour lost in 2011 and 2014 and I wouldn't put the capital gains tax at the top of the list ... generally, after you've been in government for nine years and you're in opposition it's going to be very hard to win back government, and that was one of the key challenges that we had in in 2011; 2014 there were other reasons as well."

He argued the OECD has long called for a CGT on property, as did Treasury's outgoing chief executive Caralee McLiesh last year, and said other academics and economists also support it.

"I think that regardless of the politics of it, sometimes you've got to step back and say 'why has New Zealand not done as well as other countries?' ... the answer is therefore it's time to change and do the right thing for New Zealand, regardless of what you think the political impact might also be."

But when you break the poll numbers down by party, Labour's supporters are far from sold: less than half are keen when the family home's exempt, more than a quarter are not.

Labour's leader Chris Hipkins is promising to release a tax policy by end of year, widely rumoured to include a capital gains tax. If so, the mixed poll results put them in a somewhat difficult position.

Phil Goff. Photo:

Goff argued it's not a lost cause.

"It's quite remarkable when you think of it, because generally if you say do you support any tax measure or any rating measure, the natural inclination of people is to say no.

"Those figures that you've got there are in the absence of a positive campaign out there at the moment around the benefits of a capital gains tax to New Zealand and New Zealanders. If you get a good campaign that explains and persuades people as to the real benefits that come from having a capital gains tax, then that gap could well widen."

National has long opposed a CGT, and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon last year ruled out a capital gains tax under his leadership.

His position hasn't changed.

"I think that's the last thing, the worst thing that New Zealand needs, is more tax, more borrowing, more spending - that's what's got us into the mess, that's what caused a huge amount of pain and suffering for low and middle income working New Zealanders dealing with high interest rates and a recession," he said on Wednesday.

"We know what the Labour prescription will be - but a capital gains tax, a wealth tax, an inheritance tax, a death tax, all we know is it's going to be more tax, more borrowing, and when you look at a coalition of Labour, Te Pāti Māori and the Greens that's pretty economically dysfunctional."

But the poll results also show National's supporters are even more conflicted with the party line than Labour's, with about half against a CGT, and about a third in favour.

The numbers for ACT are not too different to those of National: slightly more opposition at 55 percent, but still a third of supporters in favour.

Leader David Seymour said he completely opposes a CGT, arguing landlords already pay tax on rent.

ACT Leader David Seymour. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii

"I don't believe in double taxation, more generally New Zealand needs to generate more wealth, not find new and magical ways to divide that wealth up.

"I wouldn't be surprised if there were people who wanted a capital gains tax, one of the things about the ACT Party is that we ask ourselves 'what is the right policy' and then 'how do we sell it' - we don't put our finger in the wind and then try and design policies to be popular in the short term.

"We want New Zealand to grow wealthy in the long term, capital gains tax does not make housing more affordable, that's been shown around the world where it's been tried, it does not make you wealthier, it actually is all about dragging people down and taxing them more rather than how do we push everyone up."

The Greens' supporters were the most on board with 70 percent want a CGT on investment property, just 12 percent don't.

Co-leader Marama Davidson said the government had been "taxing people who earn and not people who own - a capital gains tax is one of those solutions we are in favour of but we could probably go a lot further, in fact we do in our own policy".

New Zealand First's Winston Peters is on record firmly opposing a CGT, and was instrumental in seeing the policy defeated in the 2017-2020 term under Jacinda Ardern - who then ruled it out under her leadership.

"We're the ones that stopped it last time because they couldn't tell us what they would do about capital losses," he said.

But more than half his supporters want a CGT, compared to just over 30 percent opposing one. Peters insists the party membership backs his position.

"When they have it explained by me, they back it substantially. When they have it explained by you, quite possibly they're confused."

New Zealand First's Winston Peters. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Te Pāti Māori's supporters also clash directly with the party's position, with nearly half opposing a capital gains tax and just over a quarter supporting one - despite the party having campaigned on one for years.

Having tried for a CGT in 2011 and suffering election defeat in 2011, Goff clearly has not given up on the idea.

"Political opponents of the tax say this is a new and radical thing, that just increases the tax burden on people. It's neither new nor radical, because most countries in the developed world have a capital gains tax, and it works effectively.

"The National coalition representing the wealthier people in the country are plainly going to stand up for the interests of the wealthier people not to pay tax on their capital gains - but there are more ordinary folk out there who do an honest week's work, pay the tax on every dollar they earn, for whom it's unfair that others in the community pay no tax because they make their income out of a capital gain."

Separate polling by Talbot Mills and reported by The Post suggests 55 percent of Kiwis expect a CGT will be a reality by 2050.

Parties both for and against have some persuading to do - and the opportunity to change some votes by doing so - if they want their stance to win out come after next year's election.

pn963. External Partners Excluded from Pacific Islands Forum Meeting

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Tue, 09 Sep 2025 01:30:00 +0000

Moetai Brotherson backs Solomon Islands' decision to exclude external partners at Honiara meeting

7:53 am today

Caleb Fotheringham, in Honiara, Solomon Islands

French Polynesia's President Moetai Brotherson in Honiara for the 54th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting from 8-12 September 2025. Photo: RNZ Pacific / Caleb Fotheringham

French Polynesia's President Moetai Brotherson says Pacific leaders will discuss if dialogue partners should only be invited once every other year to the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders' Meeting.

Brotherson is one of the leaders pleased with the Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele's decision to exlude about two dozen external partners - including China, France, the United Kingdom and the United States - at this year's summit in Honiara.

"Some of us maybe refrain from saying certain things when the dialogue partners are around," Brotherson said.

"Some are suggesting that maybe we should meet with the dialogue partners every two years instead of every year. So that would give an alternative, that's an option, but it hasn't been decided. It's going to be discussed."

When asked if he thought it was a good idea, Brotherson said it could be "a compromised format".

"We should ask dialogue partners, what do they think about it."

The decision to exclude donor partners from the Forum was announced about a month ago at the Forum's Foreign Ministers' meeting. the decision has drawn criticism from several leaders, and there have been accusations that the Solomon Islands may be an unsuitable host for the annual gathering.

Brotherson expressed hope that the relationship with dialogue partners was not going to be damaged.

"If [dialogue partners] are disappointed and some of them had big announcements that they wanted to share with us, so they won't be able to do so."

'An act of Pacific self-determination'

Pacific Conference of Churches general-secretary Reverend James Bhagwan believes it was a good idea that the partners were not at the meeting.

"I think the chair of the Forum, Prime Minister of Solomon Islands, has been quite wise," Bhagwan told RNZ Pacific.

"I see this as an act of Pacific self-determination. This is a space now for the Pacific to talk. I know there are those who would wish to be here, but this is now really a Pacific Islands Forum."

PIF secretary-general Baron Waqa said the meeting will be successful without the partners.

"Having said that I'm not saying that we don't need them, we need them, and they will be back next year in Palau."

Manele said "deferring" partner dialogue was to give time for the Forum to review how it engages with external partners.

Brotherson expects PIF dialogue partners to respect the decision.

"I haven't seen anyone from the partners lurking around," he said, adding he met with European Union Commissioner for International Partnership Jozef Síkela, who said he was disappointed but respected the decision.

Brotherson, who is a strong advocate against deep sea mining, said dialogue partners have a role in dissuading other Pacific countries who are interested in the industry by providing other economic opportunities.

"Those big countries that sometimes have a tendency to come and lecture us, on environment and things like that. They are the same countries that have been mining the whole planet for centuries.

"I want to tell them, instead of lecturing us, come and help us. Build our economies because you cannot just tell us, don't do it, help us do otherwise.

pn952. This is where New Caledonia is now: a state within a state

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Sat, 26 Jul 2025 05:20:00 +0000

New Caledonia: A Historic Agreement for a Unique Status By Paco Milhiet and Pierre-Christophe Pantz

From: RSIS Publications <publications@rsis.edu.sg>

Date: Sat, 26 Jul 2025 at 10:07 AM

RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at RSISPublications@ntu.edu.sg.

No. 163/2025 dated 23 July 2025

New Caledonia:
A Historic Agreement for a Unique Status

By Paco Milhiet and Pierre-Christophe Pantz

SYNOPSIS

Fourteen months after deadly riots erupted in New Caledonia, a political agreement was reached by the French state and local political groups on 12 July 2025. The main outcome is the creation of a "Caledonian State" within the French Republic – a sui generis status, legally hybrid, situated somewhere between federalism and free association. This agreement marks a pivotal moment in New Caledonia’s institutional trajectory and has significant implications for France’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy.

COMMENTARY

New Caledonia is an archipelago located in the South Pacific, more specifically in the Melanesian arc. Under French sovereignty since 1853, its political landscape has long been characterised by a bipolarity for or against independence, leading to political turmoil. In May 2024, a renewed outbreak of civil unrest, which resulted in the death of 14 people, plunged the territory into deep institutional uncertainty and economic crisis.

After multiple failed mediation attempts, the summit held in the French town of Bougival, near Paris, was widely seen as a last chance at a settlement. It resulted in a groundbreaking agreement and a major geopolitical shift, paving the way for a unique political status for New Caledonia.

@Paco Milhiet, d-map.com

The End of a Political Crisis?

Inhabited by the Kanak people for over 3,000 years, New Caledonia was annexed by France in 1853 and initially used as a penal colony. Successive waves of immigration from Europe and Asia, and the devastating impact of disease, colonial discrimination, and land dispossession, progressively marginalised the Kanak population, and they became a minority by 1963 (47 per cent).

Against the backdrop of the broader Pacific decolonisation movement, nationalist and independence aspirations emerged at the end of the 1960s. Between 1984 and 1988, political tensions escalated into near-civil war, culminating in the 1988 Ouvéa hostage crisis, where 19 Kanak militants and two French soldiers were killed.

A series of political agreements – Matignon (1988) and Nouméa (1998) – granted greater autonomy, introduced a restricted electoral roll for local elections and restored civil peace. Nevertheless, the archipelago has been classified as a non-self-governing territory by the United Nations since 1986, formally recognising its unresolved colonial status.

Three referendums on self-determination were held between 2018 and 2021. All returned a majority for remaining within the French Republic, but pro-independence groups boycotted the third vote. These consultations highlighted the reality of deep ethnic divide: the Kanak population voted overwhelmingly for independence, while other communities voted to stay within the French Republic.

Independence Referendums in New Caledonia
Referendum question: “Do you want New Caledonia to gain full sovereignty and become independent?”

In 2024, the French government's proposed reform of the local electoral roll, triggered widespread unrest. Riots erupted in Nouméa and surrounding areas, leaving 14 people dead (including two gendarmes), hundreds injured, and extensive damage to infrastructure and businesses.

In this explosive context, and following a breakdown in dialogue between the New Caledonian partners and the State for almost four years (2021-2025), the Bougival summit marked a pivotal step. Despite persistent polarisation and opposing visions for the future, the meeting was an attempt to find a negotiated solution to a crisis that has haunted the archipelago for decades.

The Bougival Agreement: A Deliberately Vague Document

On 12 July 2025, the French State and New Caledonia’s main political forces – both pro- and anti-independence – reached a landmark agreement. This political compromise is unprecedented: it establishes a “State of New Caledonia” within the French Republic, a constitutional innovation combining enhanced autonomy, institutional hybridity, and shared sovereignty.

Another major innovation is the introduction of a Caledonian nationality, creating a dual-nationality system – French and Caledonian. Building on the Nouméa Accord, more competencies – including international relations – will be progressively transferred to New Caledonia. However, France will retain authority over defence, justice, security, and currency, although these competencies may eventually be handed over to New Caledonia by the next local congress.

While the agreement appears to favour the pro-independence side, it also includes major concessions to anti-independence groups: the unfreezing of the restricted electoral roll to natives (estimated at +12,000 new voters), to spouses, and to people who have been resident in the country for at least 15 years; no binding referendum on independence in the near future; and increased congressional representation for South Province – a stronghold of anti-independence support around Nouméa.

In theory, the Bougival agreement marks a major political achievement. In practice, however, it is a deliberately vague document, fraught with legal ambiguities that could trigger political struggles over its interpretation and implementation.

A Fragile Success and a Long Way to Ratification

The path to ratification remains strewn with obstacles. Negotiated in haste under pressure from French President Emmanuel Macron, the agreement is still only a draft. To be ratified, it must pass through a complex legislative process.

First, a constitutional reform must be approved by a three-fifths majority of the French Parliament (the National Assembly and Senate convened in Congress) – a considerable challenge given France’s current political volatility and criticisms of the Bougival agreement from key opposition figures such as Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Next, the agreement will need to be submitted to a local referendum in early 2026. The outcome remains uncertain, as deep divisions persist on the ground, starkly illustrated by the police protection required for New Caledonian officials returning from Bougival who have faced threats. Although intended as a consensus-based text, the agreement has already come under fierce criticism on both sides of the political spectrum, similar to the previous New Caledonian agreements (Matignon 1988, Nouméa 1998), which were initially heavily criticised.

If both hurdles are overcome, long-delayed provincial elections (last held in 2019) will be organised in New Caledonia between May and June 2026. The new assembly will then be tasked with drafting a fundamental law (basically a local constitution), followed by the adoption of an organic law by the French Parliament implementing the new agreement at the national level.

A daunting constitutional journey towards ratification.

Conclusion: Wider Geopolitical Implications

The Bougival Agreement establishes a legally hybrid status – neither federation nor free associated state – with potentially far-reaching consequences. If ratified, it may bring closure to a political crisis that has plagued New Caledonia for decades.

The stakes are high. Economic recovery is now critical to avoid a prolonged social crisis. Following the May 2024 riots, more than 500 businesses were destroyed or seriously damaged, over 10,000 jobs lost, food prices spiked, and mining activity collapsed. As the world’s-fourth largest producer of nickel – accounting for 90 per cent of New Caledonia’s exports – the territory has suffered an estimated GDP contraction of 10-15 per cent.

Geopolitically, this latest episode in the Caledonian crisis will be closely monitored across the region. Several Pacific Island leaders have openly expressed support for Kanak independence, elevating the issue on the international stage.

Even though the Bougival Agreement states that “New Caledonia (...) fully intends to assume its voice and place in the Indo-Pacific, in close collaboration with France”, this sequence exposes a fundamental paradox in France’s Indo-Pacific narrative: advocating for regional stability abroad while facing persistent political unrest in some of its overseas territories.

In the longer term, the hybrid status proposed in the Bougival Agreement could set a precedent for other French overseas territories – notably French Polynesia, which enjoys a comparable degree of autonomy and is currently led by Moetai Brotherson, a pro-independence president.

Dr Paco Milhiet is a Visiting Fellow with the South Asia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. Dr Pierre-Christophe Pantz is a lecturer and researcher at the University of New Caledonia (UNC).

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S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU Singapore
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pn951. Three parties with their pants in a twist: What Green party Tamantha Paul actually said

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Wed, 26 Mar 2025 07:28:00 +0000

UPDATE 3/4/25. Excellent historical overview of police-Māori relations

Read this

UPDATE. Support for Tamantha.

Read this

ACT, Labour and National all got their pants in a twist and completely misrepresented what Tamantha Paul actually said about the police.

She said:

“Wellington people do not want to see police officers everywhere, for a lot of people it makes them feel less safe, because ... it’s that kind of constant visual presence that tells you that you might not be safe, therefore here’s heaps of cops.

She was not talking about the police in general as these politicians would have you believe but about the heavy patrol beats which could intiminate some members of the public, and how they diverted police attention from other things. "The cost of those beat patrols is that it’s taking resource away from actual genuine family violence callouts and sexual violence callouts.”

Talking to ZB, Paul said the comments came from a number of conversations she had with Wellingtonians who were concerned beat patrols were tce callouts.

“I think it’s reasonable to want to address the drivers of crime rather than having police officers at the bottom of the cliff responding to those drivers of crime.

“It’s more poverty in our communities, more drug use in our communities and greater mental health need. That’s what drives crime. If we can attack those drivers and focus our resources there, then there isn’t going to be a need for beat patrols in the first places.

Hipkins misses the plot

Labour's Hipkins said, “Tamatha Paul's comments were ill informed, were unwise, in fact, were stupid”. Asked specifically what was stupid, Hipkins said, “it was those comments where she was saying that people felt safer with seeing gang members, patched gang members on the street, compared to seeing police on the street”.

But it was not Paul who made that comment, said Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick. “I think that people may be confusing the comments of two of our different Māori MPs there.”It was Green MP Kahurangi Carter in July last year.

ACT

ACT Police spokesperson Todd Stephenson said Paul had “spent so much time hanging out with radical left-wing student groups that she’s got law and order completely backwards”.

National

The Prime Minister said Paul was in "la-la land".

But none of these leaders actually addressed what Paul had said.

She was, hower, not uncritical of police.

"I'm not surprised that people are upset that a young, brown woman is being critical of an institution that has let her and her communities down for a very long time," she told RNZ.

- ACW

pn950. BETRAYAL!

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Tue, 18 Mar 2025 10:57:00 +0000

Read what Grubsheet's Graham Davis has to say about Rabuka's attempt to change the 2013 Constitution introduced by Voqere Bainimarama and Aiyaz Sayeed Khaiyum and the Fiji First government which guarantees all citizens, irrespective of race, equal treatment before the law, and introduce changes which would give the Great Council of Chiefs and indigenous Fijians paramount rights. And how he is being assisted by the National Federation party and some wealthy Indians. Read also about Rabuka's new watch!

Click on this link

https://www.grubsheet.com.au/the-extraordinary-conduct-of-pramesh-sharma-coalition-cheerleader-and-dogla-traitor/

pn949. Some Rich Kiwis Care*

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Sat, 14 Sep 2024 04:17:00 +0000

Bruce Plested, the co-founder of Mainfreight that employs 11,000 people, is a billionaire who gives much of his money away. He has some interesting things to say on running a business, training staff, learning from Māori, sharing profits with his workers, a wealth tax, and more. In 2014 he donated $100,000 to Te Pāti Māori and $45,000 to the National Party. In 2017 he donated $100,000 to TPM and nothing to National .... Click here to read

Rahjna Patel and her husband Kantilal Prasad built a network of nearly 50 highly successful healthcare clinics in Auckland, starting in Ōtara, where the focus was patient care.

"You've got to know when you have enough," she says as she talks about their charity work.

The Patels sold their last remaining business in 2022, leaving them to focus on community work, which includes a Hindu temple they had built in Papatoetoe and a successful family harm prevention programme Gandhi Nivas. Click here to read.

* These two stories are part of a special RNZ series, RICH: The meaning of wealth in Aotearoa. Over several days, feature interviews by Corin Dann and Anusha Bradley with a diverse range of wealthy and powerful New Zealanders examine attitudes to wealth, ideas for making us a richer country and what to do with money when you have plenty of it.

pn948. New Caledonia on Brink of Civil War

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Tue, 09 Jul 2024 03:27:00 +0000

Amid heightened global tensions and a local crisis centring on the efforts of the indigenous Kanak people to secure their rights, the restoration of long-lasting peace is necessary in New Caledonia as the threat of civil war looms.

Since 13 May 2024, the nickel-rich islands in the Southwest Pacific have experienced severe unrest, described by French President Emmanuel Macron as an ‘unprecedented insurrection movement’, with the indigenous Kanak population at the forefront of the riots. On 15 May, France declared a state of emergency in its Pacific territory. The riots have targeted vehicles and ambulances bound for hospitals in Noumea, affecting residents’ access to healthcare. Barricades, skirmishes with the police and looting has left nine dead and hundreds injured, inflicting hundreds of millions of euros in damage.

After one month of deadly unrest, Macron announced on 12 June a temporary suspension of the controversial voting reforms to restore order, though this fails to address the long-term issues concerning the future of New Caledonia. The French High Commissioner of Noumea confirmed on 17 June that a curfew will still remain in effect and public gatherings will remain prohibited. The transfer of seven New Caledonian pro-independence activists to prisons in mainland France following the recent unrest has fuelled a new wave of violence in the French Pacific territory since 22 June.

The unrest in New Caledonia stems from a controversial law allowing individuals living in the region for over ten years to vote in local elections, which the Kanak community views as discriminatory. The law contradicted the Noumea Accord, a 1998 agreement granting increased political power to the collegial elected government of New Caledonia, comprising independence and loyalist parties. Click here to read more

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQVxbdndnNThgbdGltDwHpkNPDr

pn947. Fiji: a Small Ray of Hope with the appointment of Graeme Leung as Attorney-General

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Fri, 07 Jun 2024 02:20:00 +0000

With the appointment of former Fiji Law Society President Graeme Leung as Attorney-General an important detail has changed in the Fiji political scene, one that could see a reversal — or at least a review— of some very questionable legal decisions by the outgoing Acting Attorney-General Siromi Turaga, and a clean, fresh start for Fiji.

Siromi Turaga is the highly biased, politically-motivated AG in cahouts with Acting Chief Justice Salesi Temo who made two illegal appointments: Alipate Qataki as a judge and John Rabuka as acting Director of Public Proscecutions. Both appointments were in breach of Fiji's Constitution.

Further, Temo's overruling of Magistrate Seini Puamua who had virtually acquitted former PM and FijiFirst leader Voqere Bainimarama of charges against him was also questionable. Temo's over-ruling resulted in Bainimarama (and former police chief Sitiveni Qihilo) being jailed which stripped Bainimarama of the FijiFirst leadership and denied him a place in parliament. Thus, Temo effectively beheaded the largest party in parliament, FijiFirst party, and removed almost all parliamentary opposition to government. With only a two seat majority the government coalition of People's Alliance, National Federatlon Party and SODELPA, PM Sitiveni Rabuka must be very pleased indeed.

Which makes one ask why Graeme Leung's appointment?

It certainly adds much needed credibility and respectability to government which has been plagued with by a number of "salacious" scandals and internal divisions.

Leung's chief duty as AG is to advise the PM on all legal matters. Whether or not the PM heeds his advice is another thing.

Leung could (and I believe should) call for:

■ the appointment of a Chief Justice and the dismissal of Acting CJ Temo. (Temo's appointment was criticized by the Fiji Law Society)

■ the cancellation of the Alipate Qataki and John Rabuka appointments;

■ the reinstatement of Director of Public Prosecutions Chris Pryde who has been waiting for his appeal to be heard of over 14 months;

■ an earlier hearing of the appeal of Elizabeth Rice, wrongfully stood down as Assistant Director of Public Prosecutions because she is "white";

■ the decision to deregister the Fiji First Party to be put on hold. It could be derigistered unless it changes its constitution by 28th April. The party needs time to recover from its current disarray following 17 of its 26 MPs voting with Government on the pay increase bill contrary to party instructions.

■ an early appeal hearing for Bainimarama (and former police chief Sitiveni Qihilo) against Tempo's ruling;

■ and perhaps a review of the USP case that was used to remove Bainimarama in the first place (see pn936).

-- ACW

pn946. Papua New Guinea landslide disaster: at least 2,000 dead

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Tue, 28 May 2024 03:03:00 +0000

At least 2,000 people have been killed in a major landslide in the remote Highlands province of Enga 600 km NW of the capital Port Moresby when the side of a mountain collapsed on Friday. Aid rushed to the area is impeded by nearby tribal fighting. This article provides a good coverage while this article provides some additional detail.

Meanwhile, in the capital, it is unclear whether the existing government will remain in power. A vote of confidence in parliament today could see PM Marape toppled.

pn945. FijiFirst Party in Disarray. What's going to happen now?

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Mon, 27 May 2024 02:37:00 +0000

Fiji Parliament chamber

Precisely when Fiji needs a strong and united Opposition party, more so than perhaps ever before, the FijiFirst Party has shown just how weak and disunited it is with members putting their own selfish monetary interests ahead of the party and the nation.

Sixteen of its MPs, including the Leader of the Opposition Inia Seruiratu, went against the party directive to vote against or abstain from voting on a government motion to substantially increase salaries and benefits of all parliamentary members by up to 138%.

All 16 could be expelled from the party --and from parliament -- for their actions. There are compelling factors to expel and not to expel them.

Graham Davis in Grubsheet gives all the details. Click here.

See also what others think about the increases:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/517803/fiji-mps-vote-for-salary-increases-as-public-faces-economic-hardships

pn944. Two Historical "Good Reads" on NZ and the Solomon Islands

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Sun, 26 May 2024 02:40:00 +0000

<br><table><tbody><tr><td>photo

</td><td> photo </td></tr></tbody></table><br>

Victor Billot writes on his experience of the NewLabour and then Alliance parties. This is the first of two parts, published in Commonweal volume four in October 2023.

His personal story of Jim Anderton's New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. The last attempt to swing the political pendulum to the left. A little long winded; the best part is towards the middle and end.

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/BLOG/FMfcgzGxTPGBwsrBBHKzfgQVdNcQTQbW

What Solomon Islanders thought about the American occupation in World War II. They saw Black soldiers in the same uniform as the White soldiers!

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/BLOG/FMfcgzGxTPGBwsrBBHKzfgQVdNcQTQbW

pn943. Not to be missed: No Māori Allowed. NZTV1 7:30 Tonight

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Sun, 26 May 2024 02:01:00 +0000

pn941.Iwi pledges to use only te reo Māori to communicate with Goverment

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Mon, 20 May 2024 02:01:00 +0000

A south Taranaki iwi will use only te reo Māori when corresponding or speaking with central government officials from now on and hopes other iwi and kaupapa Māori organisations will follow suit.

In a media release, Te Korowai o Ngāruahine Trust said its board and employees would all seek to use te reo when engaging with the Government. “If all our speakers across the motu utilised te reo Māori in their engagement with government, this will demonstrate demand for te reo Māori services in real terms and cause resourcing pressure on the overall government policy agenda,” chair Emma Gardiner said.

Speaking to Newsroom, the trust’s chief executive Te Aorangi Dillon said what started as a response to the Government’s policies on te ao Māori, including te reo, had prompted the iwi to reflect on the value of the campaign for language revitalisation. Read more ... https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/05/17/iwi-pledges-to-use-only-te-reo-maori-to-communicate-with-govt/

pn940. Pacific NGO alliance condemns France for 'betrayal of the Kanaky people'

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Mon, 20 May 2024 01:38:00 +0000

An alliance of over two dozen Pacific non-government organisations have condemned France for what they say is a "betrayal" of New Caledonia's Kanak population.

In a statement, the group have also called for calm and peace as the civil unrest enters its eighth day after Paris adopted controversial constitutional amendment that would open up the local electoral rolls to allow French residents in who have been in New Caledonia for 10 years to vote in provincial elections.

It is a move that pro-independence protesters say would weaken the indigenous Kanak vote and the principle reason for the violent unrest.

The Pacific Regional Non-Government Organisations (PRNGOs) has condemned "the Macron government for its poorly hidden agenda of prolongling colonial control over the territory".

The alliance said Kanak leaders had called repeatedly for the withdrawal of the proposed constitutional changes that would endanger the indigenous peoples' right to self-determination and threaten ongoing peaceful dialogue about future arrangements for the territory for several months.

"The changes, proposed unilaterally by the Macron government, would remove voting eligibility provisions that have been preserved and protected under the 1998 Nouméa Accords as a safeguard for indigenous peoples against demographic changes that could make them a minority in their own land and block the path to freedom," the statement said.

"Despite repeated protests and warnings that Macron's constitutional modification initiative could end a 30-year period of relative peace under the Accords, the proposals, already passed by the French Senate, were again pushed through its National Assembly early last week.

"Growing frustration, especially amongst Kanak youth, at what is seen locally as yet another French betrayal of the Kanaky people and other local communities seeking peaceful transition, has since erupted in riots and violence in Nouméa and other regions.

So far, six people have been confirmed dead as a result of the armed clashes, including two police officers.

A Kanak journalist Andre Qaeze told RNZ Pacific police and armed forces are attempting to clear and open roads to parts of Nouméa.

However, Qaeze, who is with Radio Djiido, said this work is being made difficult by the protesters.

The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) is [https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/517266/defence-force-hercules-awaits-french-approval-before-heading-to-new-caledonia ready to send a Hercules to Nouméa to bring New Zealanders home as soon as the French give permission to do so.

The Fiji government is also working with the Australian and New Zealand governments to get Fijian citizens out of Nouméa, Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said in Parliament on Monday.

According to PRNGOs, the security situation is likely to be made worse by humanitarian challenges due to the damage to shops and other outlets for daily necessities and medicines.

The members of the alliance are calling for the French Presidency to immediately withdraw its "unilaterally-imposed project of removing constitutional provisions that safeguard pro-independence voters".

They also want the United Nations and Pacific leaders to send a neutral mission to oversee and mediate dialogue between all parties to the Noumea Accords and resulting political process.

Listen to Kanak people

Meanwhile, the Australia West Papua Association (AWPA) said the French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's comments that Paris would "show the utmost firmness towards looters and rioters and toughen sanctions" was a "short-sighted" statement and does not "look at the underlying causes of the protests".

"France should listen to the Kanak people," the organisation said in a statement.

AWPA's Jo Collins said "like all colonial powers anywhere in the world, the first response to what started as peaceful protests is to send in more troops, declare a state of emergency and of course accuse a foreign power of fermenting unrest".

He said the unrest is being caused by France itself.

-- Source: RNZI

pn939. Riots in New Caledonia

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Fri, 17 May 2024 03:01:00 +0000

Constitutional amendments by the French parliament to allow people who had been resident in New Caledonia to vote have sparked off riots by pro-independence groups in the capital Noumea. Some 10,000 rioters are involved. four people are dead and the riot leaders have been arrested.

Last Wednesday, the French National Assembly voted 351 in favour (mostly right-wing parties) and 153 against (mostly left-wing parties) the proposed constitutional amendments that would open the electoral roll and allow those who have been residing in New Caledonia for an uninterrupted ten years to vote in local elections.

Le Monde says "the reform of the territory's electorate has reawakened a near-civil war atmosphere, because major inequalities disadvantaging Kanak people persist, and the government has seemed to be biased in favor of one side."

The rioters claim the French parliamant decision has broken a 20-year accord with the local indigenous Kanaks, and threatened to make the Kanak a minority in their own country. French troops are being flown into the country, food is in short supply in Noumea, commercial flights are cancelled and the route to the airport is all but closed. Some 300 New Zealanders are currently in the country.

The Pacific Conference of Churches has called for the UN to lead an impartial and competent dialogue mission to monitor the situation. In a statement on Friday, it said it "stands in deep solidarity with our sisters and brothers of Kanaky", saying the violence is born of frustration and pain. It said after 20 years of consensual management, the breakdown in dialogue between the French government and the independence fighters and the Kanak people is now a reality.

The Pacific Islands Forum and the Melanesian Spearhead Group have always supported the independence of New Caledonia. The Melanesian Spearhead Group and Vanuatu's prime minister Charlot Salwai has called on the French government to withdraw or annul the proposed constitutional amendments that sparked the civil unrest.

French Home Affairs and Overseas minister Gérald Darmanin refuses to accept the Kanak rationale for the riots. He says "This is a Mafia-like body which I do not amalgamate with political pro-independence parties...[it] is a group that claims itself to be pro-independence and commits looting, murders and violence."

With such an attitude, useful dialogue is unlikely any time soon. Arresting the riot leaders is not the solution.

-- ACW, based mainly on RNZI reports.

pn938. Solomon Islands Post-Election. What, if enything, has changed?

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Wed, 15 May 2024 02:44:00 +0000

Dr Jon Fraenkel provides the details. See hyperlink below.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/516264/solomon-islands-an-incumbent-s-defeat-and-resurrection

pn937. The Changing Composition of NZ's population due to emigration and immigration

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Wed, 15 May 2024 02:22:00 +0000

Updated. See link at end.

Net migration loss of NZ citizens exceeds 50,000 a year for the first time

A record 52,500 New Zealand citizens left the country in the year ended March 31, according to Stats NZ. The latest numbers were much higher than the previous record of 44,400 citizen departures, more than a decade ago.“This is the first time the annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens has exceeded 50,000,” Tehseen Islam of Stats NZ said this morning.

Stats NZ also said the provisional net migration gain of 111,100 in the year comprised a net gain of 163,600 non-New Zealand citizens that more than offset the net migration loss of 52,500 Kiwi citizens. For migrant arrivals in the March 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 49,800 arrivals. About 31,900 Philippines citizens arrived. About 26,800 arrivals were citizens of China and 25,800 were New Zealand citizens.

Read this update https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/15/stratospheric-exodus-of-skilled-workers-huge-loss-for-nz-expert/

pn936. Former Fiji PM Voqere Bainimarama sentenced to one year's jail

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Fri, 10 May 2024 03:29:00 +0000

Bainimarama with cloth covering handcuffs
"so that his grandchildren would not see them."

Fiji's most popular leader in recent times and former PM 69-year old Frank Bainimarama has been sentenced to one year's jail for "perverting the course of justice" by Acting Chief Jusice Selesi Temo. Former Police Chief Sitiveni Qiliho who acted on Bainimarama's instruction was sentenced to two years.

The maximum penalty possible was 5 years for Bainimarama and 10 years for Qiliho.

Both had previously had the charges dismissed in the Magistrate's court by Magistrate Seini Puamau but her ruling was overruled by Acting Chief Justice Temo (see pn923).

The charges stem from an instruction in 2019 by Bainimarama to stop an investigation into claims by the then new University of South Pacific's Vice-Chancellor Professor Pal Ahluwahia of alleged financial mismanagement by the administraton under the previous USP VC the late Professor Rajesh Chandra*, pertaining to questionable appointments, contract renewals, leave payments and back pay.

It is interesting to note that similar charges have been made against the VC's of Fiji's other two universities, the University of Fiji and the Fiji National University. University of Fiji VC Professor Shaista Shameem says "complaints were likely to be put together by several 'identifiable disgruntled former management and academic staff.'"(see pn 825). And so could the complaints at USP. In my post of 5 February 2021 I noted there were 33 cases of alleged mismanagement against Professor Ahluwahia. Such is Fiji. What goes around comes around.

I have previously commented that it is unusual for an incoming VC to criticize a previous administration, which seemed pointless anyway since there was no way of reversing appointments and renewals or recovering the alleged money lost in leave- and back pay. I thought the new VC should "get on with the job" of administering the university and healing the divisions among his staff.

While the USP charge is questionable, the Rabuka government has made it clear that that they would "get" Bainimarama one way of another. With the slim majority in parliament and serious charges against some of its coalition partners government needed to find a way to distract attention from government and discredit the largest party in parliament Bainimarama's Fiji First Party. In the 55-seat parliament FF has 26 seats, Rabuka's People's Alliance has 21, the National Federation Party 5 and SODELPA 3.

If this charge had failed, it is rumoured they had another 30 charges they thought they could use against Bainimarama.

Imprisonment means that Bainimarama cannot stand in another election for several years unless he can get the judgment overturned by appeal. This stands a good change of succeeding if the judges are independent, which Acting Chief Justice Temo most certainly is not.

* Disclosure. Rajesh Chandra was a former student of mine in the 1960 and a senior colleague and friend in the 1990s.

-- ACW

pn935. Soon, could we be listening to only National Party , Act and NZP news and views?

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Fri, 03 May 2024 03:10:00 +0000

As the nation's public TV news and opinion channels start to close down to save government money, we wonder where it will stop.

Could we, in a year's time, be listening to only Government news, and the role of the fourth estate as a check on government have ceased until a more enlighted government is returned to power?

Read https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/03/thank-you-for-watching-midday-signs-off-for-the-final-time/

pn934. NZ MPs are in the top one percent of earners. Read how it happened.

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Fri, 03 May 2024 02:24:00 +0000

Once, MPs were regarded as public servants and backbench MPs received salaries similar to secondary school teachers.

Now, MPs are in the top one percent of earners with backbench MPs being paid $163,000, or $231,000 with perks added. The PM is paid $472,000 plus perks.

Bryce Edwards of the Democracy Project traces how it all happened in "Accepting a significant pay rise shows how much MPs are out of touch."

He opens with:

"How entitled are New Zealand’s politicians? Right now, MPs across the political spectrum look entirely out of touch in their unified stance of accepting the hefty pay increases recommended by the Remuneration Authority.
MPs should simply reject the pay increases – which they can easily do – rather than risk a legitimate public backlash from constituents who feel betrayed by an already well-paid political class that insists on austerity for others but not themselves."

Read on by clicking here.

pn933. Solomon Islands Elections: a return of the incumbent government

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Thu, 02 May 2024 03:25:00 +0000

Jeremiah Manele has been elected the new PM of Solomon Islands, with 31 votes over rival Matthew Wale's 18.

Foreign media has made much of the demise of former PM Manasseh Sogavere whose switch from recognition of Taiwan to the People's Republic of China has been seen as a major election issue. If this was so, it must have been a very minor issue. Manele was Foreign Minister under Sogavere when the switch was made and he has promised to maintain present relationships.

Moreover, Manele's victory signals a return of the incumbent government formerly headed by Manasseh Sogavare in the 50-seat parliament.

Manele's administration, which calls itself the Government for National Unity and Transformation (GNUT), is made up of three parties; his own Our Party with 15 seats, Manasseh Maelanga's People's First Party with 3 seats and Jamie Vokia's Kandere Party with one seat, a total of 19, together with the SI Party for Rural Advancement (1 seat) and support from among the 11 independents MPs.

Matthew Wale's opposition —that mainly opposed the switch from Taiwan— comprises his own Democratic Party with 11 seats, the United Party with 6 seats, and one seat from the Democratic Alliance party.

The fragmentation of both government and opposition groups is only too obvious, and with most loyalties linked to individuals, clans and island groups the next few years promise to be very volatile.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/02/solomon-islands-lawmakers-elect-jeremiah-manale-as-new-pm/

pn932. Latest NZ Political Polls

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Wed, 01 May 2024 03:37:00 +0000

Three poll results have been released in the past three days, two of which show a Labour coalition could form government if an election were held on the poll date, 1News-Verian because NZ First dropped below the 5% threshold, Talbot Mills on numbers.

But which date? The Talbot Mills poll ran though March, and the Roy Morgan poll for parts of March and April. The only poll conducted over a reasonable short time was 1News-Verian. See table:

Tabot Mills tends to favour Labour and Roy Morgan National.

Australian-based Roy Morgan also published a breakdown by age and sex of those polled. A similar breakdown from the other pollsters would have been useful.

Men, particularly older men, favoured National. Women favoured Labour and younger women Greens. Nearly a quarter (24.5%) of women aged 18-45 would vote Greens! See details below.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

	2023 NZ Election	April 2024	Women			Men
	2023 NZ Election	April 2024	All	18-49	50+	All	18-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
National	38.1	36.5	28	14.5	42.5	45.5	41.5	49.5
ACT	8.6	11	10	14	5.5	12	6.5	18
NZ First	6.1	5.5	4.5	3.5	6	6	4	8.5
National/ ACT/ NZ First	52.8	53	42.5	32	54	63.5	52	76

Labour	26.9	24.5	28	25	31	21.5	25.5	16.5
Greens	11.6	13	16.5	24.5	7.5	9.5	16	2.5
Maori Party	3.1	5.5	9.5	16	2.5	1.5	2	1
Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party	41.6	43	54	65.5	41	32.5	43.5	20

Others	5.6	4	3.5	2.5	5	4	4.5	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The polls show that the National Coalition has lost some support since the elections and that Labour's standing is also not spectacular.

PM Luxon had 23% support as preferred PM, down 2%, while Opposition leader Hipkins had 16%, up a miserable 1%.

In the 1News Verian Poll, voters were also asked: "Which of the [coalition] party leaders do you think has the most influence on Government decisions?"

Around 51% responded with the prime minister, while about 49% did not.

Out of those who didn't believe the National leader was in control, 23% believed New Zealand First's Winston Peters had the most influence, 10% said ACT's David Seymour was in charge, whilst 17% said they didn't know who was behind the wheel.

Could New Zealanders be disallusioned with a jaded political line up on both sides of the political divide?

-- ACW

pn931. Democracy in the Solomon Islands

noreply@blogger.com (Crosbie Walsh) — Sat, 27 Apr 2024 02:36:00 +0000

Sogave switched from regognizing
Taiwan to recognizing China

Democracy can be limited when there are too few parties contesting an election. It is limited also when there are too many, and too many independent candidates, as is the case with the Solomon Islands which has just had an election, and is now on tenterhooks as parties woo support from other parties and independents to elect a government and appoint a prime minister.

Former PM Mannaseh Sogavare 's One party did best with 15 successful candidates but it needs another 11 if it is to form the government in the 50-seat parliment. Matthew Wale's Democratic party came next with 11 seats. In all, eight parties won one seat or more and there are 11 independents.

The opportunities —and need? —for graft and other forms of corruption in lobbying for support are immense. One wonders whether franchise, at this stage of Solomon Islands development, might be better in the hands of a geographically representative and educated council of electors.

This RNZ article sums up the sums up the voting situation.

.

pn965. Raj Prasads' Submission to the Fiji Truth and Reconciliation Commission - Essential reading

pn964. Poll controlled by Big Business, not Balanced or Impartial

pn964 New Poll on Capital Gains Tax shows NZ Divided

RNZ-Reid Research poll: Where the public stands on capital gains tax

Capital gains tax finds some backing among voters

Do New Zealand voters support a capital gains tax?

How does support for a CGT differ among voters?

pn963. External Partners Excluded from Pacific Islands Forum Meeting

Moetai Brotherson backs Solomon Islands' decision to exclude external partners at Honiara meeting

'An act of Pacific self-determination'

pn952. This is where New Caledonia is now: a state within a state

pn951. Three parties with their pants in a twist: What Green party Tamantha Paul actually said

pn950. BETRAYAL!

pn949. Some Rich Kiwis Care*

pn948. New Caledonia on Brink of Civil War

pn947. Fiji: a Small Ray of Hope with the appointment of Graeme Leung as Attorney-General

pn946. Papua New Guinea landslide disaster: at least 2,000 dead

pn945. FijiFirst Party in Disarray. What's going to happen now?

pn944. Two Historical "Good Reads" on NZ and the Solomon Islands

<br><table><tbody><tr><td>photo

</td><td> photo </td></tr></tbody></table><br>

Victor Billot writes on his experience of the NewLabour and then Alliance parties. This is the first of two parts, published in Commonweal volume four in October 2023.

pn943. Not to be missed: No Māori Allowed. NZTV1 7:30 Tonight

pn941.Iwi pledges to use only te reo Māori to communicate with Goverment

pn940. Pacific NGO alliance condemns France for 'betrayal of the Kanaky people'

Listen to Kanak people

pn939. Riots in New Caledonia

pn938. Solomon Islands Post-Election. What, if enything, has changed?

pn937. The Changing Composition of NZ's population due to emigration and immigration

pn936. Former Fiji PM Voqere Bainimarama sentenced to one year's jail

pn935. Soon, could we be listening to only National Party , Act and NZP news and views?

pn934. NZ MPs are in the top one percent of earners. Read how it happened.

pn933. Solomon Islands Elections: a return of the incumbent government

pn932. Latest NZ Political Polls

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

pn931. Democracy in the Solomon Islands

.

pn965. Raj Prasads' Submission to the Fiji Truth and Reconciliation Commission - Essential reading

pn964. Poll controlled by Big Business, not Balanced or Impartial

Integrity Briefing: The Boardroom's Manifesto - How NZ's corporate elite lobbies in plain sight

The CEO Wishlist: A Blueprint for a corporate-centric state

The Political scorecard: A Public flogging

The Mechanics of influence and the façade of democracy

Conclusion: Whose mood governs New Zealand?

pn964 New Poll on Capital Gains Tax shows NZ Divided

Capital gains tax finds some backing among voters

Do New Zealand voters support a capital gains tax?

How does support for a CGT differ among voters?

pn963. External Partners Excluded from Pacific Islands Forum Meeting

'An act of Pacific self-determination'

pn952. This is where New Caledonia is now: a state within a state

pn951. Three parties with their pants in a twist: What Green party Tamantha Paul actually said

pn950. BETRAYAL!

pn949. Some Rich Kiwis Care*

pn948. New Caledonia on Brink of Civil War

pn947. Fiji: a Small Ray of Hope with the appointment of Graeme Leung as Attorney-General

pn946. Papua New Guinea landslide disaster: at least 2,000 dead

pn945. FijiFirst Party in Disarray. What's going to happen now?

pn944. Two Historical "Good Reads" on NZ and the Solomon Islands

<br><table><tbody><tr><td>photo </td><td> photo </td></tr></tbody></table><br>

Victor Billot writes on his experience of the NewLabour and then Alliance parties. This is the first of two parts, published in Commonweal volume four in October 2023.

pn943. Not to be missed: No Māori Allowed. NZTV1 7:30 Tonight

pn941.Iwi pledges to use only te reo Māori to communicate with Goverment

pn940. Pacific NGO alliance condemns France for 'betrayal of the Kanaky people'

Listen to Kanak people

pn939. Riots in New Caledonia

pn938. Solomon Islands Post-Election. What, if enything, has changed?

pn937. The Changing Composition of NZ's population due to emigration and immigration

pn936. Former Fiji PM Voqere Bainimarama sentenced to one year's jail

pn935. Soon, could we be listening to only National Party , Act and NZP news and views?

pn934. NZ MPs are in the top one percent of earners. Read how it happened.

pn933. Solomon Islands Elections: a return of the incumbent government

pn932. Latest NZ Political Polls

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

pn931. Democracy in the Solomon Islands

<br><table><tbody><tr><td>photo

</td><td> photo </td></tr></tbody></table><br>