The Happy Wanderer

Gay Marriage is Contagious

2013-05-15T07:00:00.000-04:00

On Nov 4th 2012 The U.S made history passing same sex marriage votes in three states altogether. In 2012 Same Sex Marriage was legal in 9 states and the District of Columbia (DC). 2012 was the year with the most legal same sex marriages votes passing in the U.S.

In 2010
Only 5 states and DC allowed same sex marriage in the U.S
and 10 countries allowed same sex marriage in the World

In 2013
12 states and the DC allow same sex marriage in the U.S
and 14 countries allow same sex marriage in the world

Most of the new countries and some of the new states occurred in the past few months. If Prop 8 is overturned we can add one more american state to the list, and in the next 2 years same sex marriage will be voted on by another dozen something states, which all look poise to pass same sex marriage. Including Ohio the swing state which will hold a vote overturning it's constitutional ban on same sex marriage.

But most importantly 3 out of the 4 new countries all occurred in the past couple months. The developed world and even the developing world is jumping on the ban wagon. Same Sex marriage is legal in most Brazilian States, Finland will soon have a vote that will easily pass, and even religious countries like Israel will have a vote in 2 years to legalize same sex marriage (And multiple major parties are in support of it)

In short this decade will be the great leap in Gay rights throughout the world, and we will most likely see in 2020 a most developed countries in the world legalize same sex marriage.

BC Election Prediction and Hopes.

2013-05-14T07:00:00.000-04:00

It seems the easy victory the NDP were hoping for was all but swept away after the leadership debate. Granted the NDP are still 7% on average ahead of their closes rivals the Liberal party of British Columbia. It actually peculiar when you think about it that most of the recent provincial elections we had greatly diminished the lead of the front runner come election day (Mainly Quebec and Alberta).

This BC election isn't much different from the Quebec elections. A Liberal party slightly right wing being in power for over a decade, and a new opposition leader coming from the left hoping to change everything. The Major differences of course being that Quebec has the separatist movement and the Incumbent party in BC has a new young leader.

The point I am trying to get across is that I have a hypothesis that the BC Liberals will shrink that gap even more when the ballots are counted. I make this hypothesis based on experience.

First Experience:
In Quebec most people hated Charest, but a solid 30% still voted for him, why? Because Charest ran the economy angle and the I know what I am doing angle too. He made Marois and Francois Legault seem inexperienced and especially Marois bad for business. Christy Clark is playing the same angle. She wants to appear that she is the economically best choice for BC. And come election day Charest closed the 7% gap to a measly 0.7%. Christy Clark won't be as lucky, she isn't running against a sovereigntist who is banging the drums of an issue no one cares about. BC voters may last second buy into the BC Liberal rhetoric that they are better for the economy.

I would predict that the BC NDP will win a majority, and the BC Liberals a close 3-4 points behind. Anyways I hope that the BC Greens do well and carry at least one seat, and there was some hope in the last week with the Greens polling to in the low ten's, but now come election day the Green vote is the least stable and has diminished to 8-9 percent which may not even be attainable, as the BC greens are only running candidates in 61/85 ridings. Still I wish Jane Sterks and the Greens good luck!

A Green BC seats

2013-04-18T07:00:00.000-04:00

In this post I will explain the possibility of a green seat in BC in this coming election May 14th.

Jane Sterk Green party leader will be running in Victoria Beacon Hill. This riding in the last election elected Carole James by a large margin

2009 election result
NDP 13,400 55.4%
Lib 6,375 26.3%
Green 4,106 17.0%
Indep 319 1.3%

This riding carries a lot of advantages for Jane Sterk particularly a high Green party base, but Jane Sterk has no chance of winning this riding in the upcoming election. Why? Because the incumbent party in this riding is the NDP, which if the polls are correct are maintaining most of their support in this riding. The Liberals are currently polling well below what they were polling in 2009 and therefore will most likely fall into third place on May 14th, and even if all those Liberal voters go to Jane Sterk she would still not manage to win this riding, because the NDP will most likely maintain over 50% of the vote.

Why did Jane Sterk pick such an impossible riding? She had so many better options to chose from. Like Sannich North and the Islands or West Vancouver Sea to Sky.

Either of these ridings would have been better. Sannich North would have been good, because Elisabeth May is the Green MP for the riding, and she could try and muster up her supporters to vote for Jane Sterk in the provincial election, and this riding would have also been more ripe for the taking, because the incumbent party running in Sannich North is the Liberal party that is polling almost 15% below where they were in the last election.

West Vacouver Sea to Sky would have also been a better choice for the green party leader Jane. Not only is the incumbent in the riding a Liberal, which provides loads of opportunity for the Greens to grab the seat, but the green party got a strong nearly second place showing in 2009. In fact the Green candidate in the riding got more votes and a greater share of the votes in West Vacouver Sea to Sky than Jane Sterk did in her previous attempt at a seat in Esquimalt-Royal Roads.

The Green party especially those in BC need to understand that they can win in some ridings if they run their best candidates their. The Greens in BC missed a golden opportunity to capture their first seat in the British Columbia assembly by not running their leader in the best riding.

RNC of the 20th Century.

2013-04-17T07:00:00.000-04:00

The Republican National Committee continues to live in the past. Just recently the RNC has passed a resolution affirming that the national Republican policy on same sex marriage is that marriage is only between a man and a women.

Even as many Republicans are coming out in support of same sex marriage the RNC continues to deny the inevitable, and continues to drag along this issue, which is one of the past. The RNC at the same meeting last week stated that they do have a problem reaching out to minorities. The RNC stated that they need to be reaching out to African Americans, Latinos and Asian Americans, but have provided no road map on how to do it.

The RNC is being pressured by right wing groups like the Family Research Council to maintain their outdated polices, and this will be problematic for the RNC. This tug of war between social conservatives and social conservatives is one that has existed for many years but has became amplified since the tea party movement in 2010.

In 2012 you would think that the RNC would have learned it's lesson that only pandering to social conservatives in your base won't help you appeal to moderates. The Tea Party movement may have died down, but the vast majority of Republicans are still claiming to be apart of the tea party. Senators like Ted Cruz shows how much the Republican party is stuck back in the 20th century.

With over 52% of young Republicans supporting Gay-Marriage and with 60% of young people believing that abortion will be legal. It will be very hard for many Social Republicans to run for re-election in the following years running on the current RNC policy platform.

BC Election.... No Show.

2013-04-16T07:00:00.000-04:00

The British Colombian election is set for May 14th, and it's pretty straight forward. People in BC no longer support the BC liberals after three consecutive terms. BC Liberals have been losing popularity since they won the 2009 BC election.

The NDP started out the year nearly at 50%, and having twice as much support as the Liberals. The BC Conservatives which usually get 3-4% in the polls started to eat away at the BC Liberals support, and almost took second place just a Little over a year ago. But ever since May 2013 the BC Conservatives have collapsed and the BC liberals have started building up some support.

Right now the election looks like a no show, but their our some interesting things to look out for.

1. The support and seat capability of the Greens
2. The strength of the Conservatives
3. How big will the NDP win

1. The greens
The Greens are currently polling at around 10-13% which is very high for the Green party in British Columbia. Unfortunately the Greens won't get a seat in this election most likely. Jane Sterk decided to run in Victorian Beacon Hill which was a bad decision. This riding is home of the former leader of the BC NDP Carole James who carried the riding with 55% of the vote in 2009. With NDP polling above their 2009 levels it will be hard to see how the Greens can go from 17% to a victory in this riding. With the NDP running high it's hard to see how the Greens could combat the stream. The Greens will very likely place a strong second in this riding.

How will success be measured
- The Greens success will be measured by whether or not they are able to gain a seat or improve their share of the popular vote.
(I will go to greater detail on the riding the green party could win in this election.)

2. The Strength of the Conservatives

The Conservatives just about a year ago was tied for second place with the BC Liberals, but like many parties that suddenly blib high in the polls it is often short lived. (Remember when Francois Legault was leading in Quebec). What will interesting to see is whether the Conservative party of BC can became a real visible party in British Columbia elections.

How will success be measured

- If the Conservatives get 10% of the vote it will be a big win for them, because it will show that they do have a base in province to build on.

-Another interesting thing to look out for is whether or not the Conservatives in BC will beat the Greens in popular vote.

3. How big will the NDP win?

If all goes well, and no gaffes emerge than the NDP should be heading for a big majority government come May 14th. The real test for the NDP is whether they will be given power, because they are popular or because the other is less popular. In 2009 the BC NDP got 42% of the vote, and today they are polling anywhere between 46%-38%.If the NDP don't improve their numbers on 2009 that would prove that the NDP won only, because the BC Liberals are unlikable.

How will success be measured

- If the NDP don't improve on their election results from last election.

Justin Trudeau Wins

2013-04-14T07:00:00.000-04:00

104,552 votes, yes just over 80% of the people who registered for the Liberal party of Canada leadership election ended up voting. A statement that was said quite often that night was that in this election more votes were cast than in any other leadership election. This is well...... true if we are talking about federal political parties.

In 2003 the Conservative leadership election
97,397 votes were cast
In 2012 the NDP leadership election
65,108 votes were cast

Although if we include provincial leadership elections the Liberal leadership election just held yesterday would only place second. The party that has obtained the most votes when it comes to electing a leader in Canada goes to the PQ (Parti Quebecois) in 2005. Yes in 2005 105,259 members of PQ voted to elect André Boisclair as leader of the PQ in Quebec.

Justin Trudeau first test as leader will be coming in the following month. That test will be the By-election in Labrador (which the Liberals are looking very likely as the winners). Justin Trudeau will most likely as all new leaders start to spike in the polls the important thing to watch here is how high will Justin Trudeau go. If Justin Trudeau ties with Harper or will Justin Trudeau lead and if so how much. All this is very important, because from the spike we can usually expect the true solid support to be anywhere 5-10% below.

What will also be interesting to watch is when will the new Conservative attack ads come, but right now it's the honeymoon. The Liberals are trying now to sell the new leader bit as much as they can to fund raise as much as possible, and the high poll numbers and media will help Liberal fortune's in the short run. The real show begins in the Fall session of next year, where Harper will have to start directing his attacks at either Mulcair or Trudeau.

A Green Canada Includes The West!

2013-04-01T07:00:00.000-04:00

Canada may be out of the Kyoto protocol, but even our own non scientific target of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 won`t be reached at this rate. Due to Harper`s indifference on climate change Canada is falling behind most nations not only when it comes to environmental action, but also maintaining past successes. Harper made Canada the only country not to stay on the UN convention combating droughts.

In Canada emissions are going up. Canada is way above it`s Kyoto agreements. Right now Canada emits 690 Mega tonnes of CO2. Nearly 20 tonnes of CO2 per capita, which makes us one of the biggest polluters in the developed world. Who is to blame? Alberta. I think it is an over simplification to blame everything on Alberta. And yes while it is true that Alberta over represents itself in CO2 emissions in Canada compared to it's portion of the population.

Alberta isn't a bad province, because it has oil, and yes oil isn't a bad thing. Oil is a vital resource in today's modern economy. The problem though is that Alberta's Tar Sands are polluting to much, and will hinder Canada ability to reach any target. The Problem is that Alberta is built on this vital resource. Alberta's low unemployment rate and usually* decent public finances are all due to the cash cow that is the OIL!

Quebec and other eastern provinces who don't have as many resources like Alberta, haven't found it too hard to reduce CO2 emissions. Ontario is 6.5% below 1990 levels (That means Ontario reached it's Kyoto target) Quebec is 2% below 1990 levels. Both these provinces have pledged to reduce CO2 emissions by 15% in Ontario and 20% in Quebec from 1990 levels by 2020. For Quebec and Ontario it is much easier to be green and so far these provinces are leading by example.

The western provinces don't fair so well. BC emission are up 28% above 1990 levels, Manitoba 10%, Alberta 37% and Saskatchewan 69%!!!!!! Harper has taken no action on these frighting numbers. For me even though I live in Quebec I see that Canada can't reach any target no matter how low emissions are in Central Canada.

My Vision for a green Canada include's the west. In order to create a green Canada we need to get the west off fossil fuels, and yes that means getting rid of the old economy and creating a new economy. For this we can't just say to Alberta your on your own. The federal government must help the west invest in green energy to create a new western economy off fossil fuels. A green Canada doesn't mean high unemployment in Alberta. It means new and sustainable employment in the west.

Pro Same Sex Marriage GOP Candidate.......Maybe?

2013-03-31T07:00:00.000-04:00

With Rob Portman, the senator from Ohio along with the many prominent Republicans like Dick Cheney, Meg Whitman and Laura Bush supporting gay marriage is it possible to see a GOP candidate in 2016 run supporting gay marriage.

In 2012 all the GOP candidates where opposed to same sex marriage. Most in fact supported a constitutional amendment prohibiting the marriage of anyone other than a man and a women. Only John Hutsman supported civil unions. And it should be noted that Ron Paul said that the government should get out of marriage and let everyone pretty much define it for themselves.

Currently most of the candidates that may run don't support marriage equality. John Hutsman who now supports marriage equality may be the only candidate in the 2016 republican primary to support same sex marriage. But the question shouldn't be if a pro same sex marriage candidate is possible, but whether the position is winnable.

Currently most republicans 61% according to current polls are against same sex marriage. But this is also generational, among republicans ages 18-44 46% support and oppose same sex marriage. While 45 and up oppose same sex marriage by a margin of 64%-25%. Considering big major donors of the Republican party come from an older generation it is fair to say a pro gay marriage GOP candidate may find it hard to find influential friends in this party.

The Republicans have only started to warm up to this issue and yes in three years more Republicans will probably change their minds. Especially with the supreme court ruling coming in June but also in the some 8 states that will have a vote on this issue in the next 2 years.

Anyways the 2016 GOP primaries and Caucuses should be interesting. A fight between the younger Republican generation and the older. The tug of war if you will. Santorum will most likely champion the cause for social conservative, but it will be interesting to see which major candidate will take his challenge. If any?

Labrador By-Election!

2013-03-30T07:00:00.000-04:00

In the midst of scandal Peter Penashue resigned and is seeking re-election in Labrador. This by-election is perfectly placed to be a present for the next Liberal leader. Another seat for a party that lost so much in the last election would be a great present for the parties future leader.

The prospects look very promising. First the big boost is of course the scandals around Peter Penashue will most defiantly make him lose many votes. And in fact that is really all that is needed to elect a Liberal in the next election. Labrador only elected Peter by 78 votes. This riding has a long Liberal history. Since Newfoundland became a part of Canada in 1948 this riding has only elected a conservative twice. In 1968 and 2011. Every other election since 1948 this riding has elected a Liberal.

Added on to that, the Conservatives have committed practical political suicide in the east supporting drastic changes to Employment insurance. Even the Conservatives support for the seal hunt won`t do much good as the Liberals are also in favor of keeping the seal hunt going. The NDP will have some issue`s though conveying that message. With the Greens even deciding to step out of this election in favor of some sort of co-operation to unseat Peter Penashue (that the NDP refused to take part in) that frees up some 132 progressive votes from the last election, which most certainly will vote for either the Liberals or NDP.

Put all these together and it seems that the Conservatives will be even lucky to place second let alone first. The first place winner looking at the evidence will most likely be Yvonne Jones the Liberal candidate. If the Liberals win this by-election it will grow the Liberal caucus to 36, which is 2 more than the 2011 election results. We are the only major party which has grown in size since 2011. The Conservatives are down 2 so far at 164 and the NDP are 3 down now at 100.

Same Sex Marriage..... About Time!

2013-03-29T07:00:00.000-04:00

This week the U.S supreme court has been hearing oral arguments for and against same sex marriage as well as the Defense Of Marriage Act (DOMA). The answers to these cases will come in at the end of June. Quite frankly I am hopeful, but know that the supreme court will probably not make a national consensus on this issue.

The Supreme court of the U.S unlike our own is very politically motivated. It is relatively safe to assume that their our 4 justices on both sides of bench for and against same sex marriage and Anthony Kennedy in the middle is left to decide. What I suspect will probably occur is that the Supreme court will strike down Prop 8 claiming it is unconstitutional. Therefore re-legalizing same sex marriage in the California, and California only. This unfortunately I don`t believe will be a Rov Vs Wade decision, where the entire country is effected by the ruling.

California if the supreme court strikes Prop 8 down will be the 10th state to legalize same sex marriage. Currently there is a push to legalize same sex marriage in Illinois, Hawaii, Ohio, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Delaware. As new polls show that a clear majority of Americans believe that we should let all people marry. Then Marriage equality will only be a matter of time. The supreme court could settle this problem once and for all, or continue this inevitable fight for marriage equality. If DOMA is repealed it will give the thousands of Gay and Lesbians couples already married in 9 states and DC all the rights of marriage.

In the meantime France, New Zealand and the U.K are putting this issue to bed. It`s only a matter of time... it`s only a matter of time.

America Moves a Few Inches to the Left

2012-11-09T07:00:00.000-05:00

For the most part the U.S political climate has remained the same. The White House resident is still a democrat, the senate is still controlled by democrats and the House is controlled by Republicans. But I think in all it is a win for left wing of the country, and shows to some extent the fact that America has at least in my mind moved little bit more towards the left of the political spectrum.

In the Presidential election Obama didn't win popular vote wise as much as he did in 2008. This of course doesn't prove that America has moved to the right, because we have to look at previous elections and look for a trend. The trend I see is that many former swing states have started to lean towards the democrats, and many former Republican states have started to become the new swing states.

Michigan and Pennsylvania have been called swing states for quite some time, but they haven't voted for a republican since 1988! The state of New Mexico was also called a swing state and even voted for Bush in 2004, but the Hispanic vote which is growing in New Mexico, and is increasingly voted Democrat ensured Obama would win New Mexico by a 10% margin (which rivals other more staunchly democratic states like Washington). The state of Virginia which before 2008 has voted Republican since 1964 has became increasingly a democratic state. The state of North Carolina before 2008 has voted Republican since 1976. In 2004 Bush won the state by more than 12%, and now Romney only wins by a mere 3%.

As it can be seen a Democrat candidate has an easier way to 270 electoral votes versus any generic Republican candidate, because many states have become increasingly democratic due the increasing minority demographics in the U.S which currently vote staunchly democrat and the Youth vote increasing involvement.

For example in the year 2000 Only 15% of voters were of the age 18-29 and by a margin of 13% they voted for Gore. In 2008 18% of voters were 18-29 and Obama carried it by more then 34%. In 2012 the portion increased again and is now 19% and they still vote by an overwhelming margin of 23% for the democrats.

As for minorities in 2000 80% of voters were white, in 2008 only 74% were white and in 2012 only 72% are white. The Republican party is only winning this demographic, and have improved there numbers among whites since 2000. Bush in 2000 got 54% of the white vote Romney got 59%. The Reason this landslide majority among white's doesn't easily propel someone to the presidency is because of the minority vote, which feel they are being pushed away by the Republicans.

Among African Americans the percentage has remained relatively constant with around 90% something of all African Americans voting Democratic, but the reason this is dangerous is because the African American voting population is increasing. From 9%-13% (between 2000 and 2012)

Among Hispanics there is a different story. They have also increased there share of the voting population from 7% -10% (between 200 and 2012), but they have also increasingly started to move towards the blue candidate. In 2004 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush, In 2008 only 32% and in 2012 27%. The same is true for the Asian population as well.

It can be seen that demographics of America's voting population has made dramatic changes to some states voting habits as the Republican party is increasingly becoming a party made up of primarily white people and seems to be pushing away the other minorities. If any Republican wishes to get elected president continually pushing away minorities and not reaching out will cause the demise of the Republican party.

Last Second Projection!

2012-09-03T12:28:00.001-04:00

The poll that get's the last say is Leger Marketing August 31st. The Poll shows a new development that seems to be supported by past polls. That the CAQ will have more votes then the Liberals, and the PQ will win a government. But votes don't translate into seats, and in fact I think Won't win more seats or votes come election night

While I say Francois Legault still won't win his party has shown that it can in fact hold it's 28%. Leger Marketing shows that CAQ support is even among older voters and middle age voters who tend to be more reliable , while it's support is low among young voters who tend to be less reliable. While the Liberals support is only high among voters older then 65 and below or average on all other age groups especially youth. The PQ on the other hand have gain some support among some middle age voters, but still is weak among retired or soon to retire voters. This tells us that the Liberals and the CAQ have some gains they can make on election day if there is low youth turnout.

Still 28% of voters can change their minds. This is bad news for the CAQ because among it's voters 37% said they could change their minds, while only 27% Liberal and a low 15% PQ. This plays to the advantage of the PLQ, because there lost votes didn't go to the PQ it went to the CAQ and on election day the most likely transfer of votes will be between CAQ voters to PLQ. But the PQ can also make gains as 34% of Quebec Solidaire voters and Option National two other separatist parties also could change there minds.

Pauline Marois has been leading in the polls since the beginning with the exception of that one fringe poll showing Charest would win. Now 53% of Quebec thinks she will form the next government. But 76% think that it will be a minority, but if the polls are right it's not out of the question that the PQ will get a majority. 308.com actually has Marois in Majority territory, but a very small one.

I will post my complete projection at 1pm. In case any new poll comes out.

When Is A Religious Symbol Not Religious?

2012-08-23T23:21:00.000-04:00

I have been going over the arguments I have presented why it is hypocritical for the PQ to want to eliminate religious symbols in public areas, but yet still keep the crucifix. But after much deep consideration I have come to the conclusion that I am wrong.

Because fundamentally is the crucifix itself being in the national assembly a religious statement, and can symbols that can be characterized as religious be able to get government funds? For example if the crucifix is broken and needs repair should taxpayers pay for it?

In this situation I find myself agreeing with the PQ and complacently disagreeing with my former post. That the crucifix does have historical reasons to be in the national assembly. It is a historical artifact, and like many historical artifacts in the world they do have religious meaning. For example in Mount Royal there is a big cross and many historical places that we preserve can be characterized as religious.

That doesn't mean simply because we invest in repairing or preserving these symbols that we are therefor endorsing a religion or another but rather that we are preserving it's historical meaning. For example the UN does spend money on preserving many very historical sites which can in some cases be a religious site, It doesn't mean that we endorse the religion the symbol may represent to some people but rather the protection of an old historical site.

On the question of whether people should be able to wear religious symbols in public I do still disagree with them, because I believe we should live in a very tolerant society that allows people in most cases (with very few exception) the ability to wear whatever we want as long as it is decent of course. Which means Hijabs, Kipahs, Kirpans etc... should be allowed to be worn by anyone anywhere in public.

In conclusion the crucifix should be allowed to stay in the national assembly, because it is historical.

Premier Legault? Not Happening !!!!!!!!!

2012-08-20T07:00:00.000-04:00

With current polls putting Francois Legault a close third to the other two major political parties many are wondering whether Francois Leagualt will be able to make it all the way and win government in this election. There are many reasons to suspect that the CAQ will make major gains in this election and that they will no doubt out do the ADQ, but when it comes to the question of whether they can achieve a government, but I think they won't.

First it's very easy to look at the polls and say that the surge in CAQ support may give Legault the support he needs to form a government. A poll done on August 16th have the CAQ at 27%, QLP at 28% and the PQ at 33%. This poll suggest that the CAQ can make this a three way race, but if we look deaper into the numbers you will know why the CAQ won't end up victories September 4th.

In the Leger Marketing poll they asked people who said they would vote one way if their choice was final or if they could change there minds on election day. The PQ and the PLQ both scored high among there supporters. With 71% of PQ supporters and 64% of PLQ supporters saying that there choice was final. The CAQ on the other hand has half it's supporters saying they could change their minds on election day. This shows that the CAQ support is weak and that his party's support is the most liquid of the three major parties. Meaning he has most to lose and the least to gain as Quebec Liberal supporter and PQ supporters seem to have more then CAQ supporters made up their minds.

Also when asked who in the people's opinion will form the next government the CAQ placed third with 15%, behind the PLQ and PQ with 26% and 37% respectfully. Which shows that a large number of CAQ supporters don't see the CAQ getting elected which means that the party itself isn't sure it will win even though their polling like they could.

Even with all this the CAQ have a lot going for them when asked who can bring better access to health care, who can stop corruption and who can balance the budget Francois Legault wins beating the other leaders by a large margin. But when it comes to election night the CAQ won't reach where they are in the polls as there voters are less sure about the party. When it comes to election night CAQ voters will be more likely to stay at home or change there minds and vote for someone else then PQ or PLQ voters.

See The Poll Here

Charest Will Win

2012-08-13T09:22:00.000-04:00

I'm calling it right now. A Liberal minority government. Polls show that the PQ is leading right now with the support of those alienated by Charest's stance on education and their view of him being corrupt. But, I think that when time comes to vote, a significant portion of the PQ support will simply go with what they know best: the Liberals. They will reason that the tuition increases were not all that bad and that Charest didn't do all too bad on corruption. Besides, the PQ wants a referendum and when time comes to actually take action and vote, they will not support the PQ.

And what about the CAQ? Why won't Quebecers vote for Francois Legault's party? Because, so far the party has not proven to be a serious choice. They seem like disorganised buffoons. Charest is just feeding off this. And so, Charest will win the same way Harper did: by making sure that only the Liberals seem in control of the situation while the other parties blow themselves up.

Charest had a field day with this, saying: “If I understand it correctly, François Legault will run the Twitter account and organize cocktail fundraisers, while Jacques Duchesneau will run the rest of the government.” Marois also pounced, accusing the CAQ of “improvisation” and calling them “amateurish.” In other words, not ready to govern.

PQ Proposes New Language Law!

2012-08-09T07:00:00.000-04:00

The PQ leader Pauline Marois is proposing new language laws and a her version of secularism. Both of which will make Quebec much worse off. The new Language laws or as Marois would like to put it "a new Bill 101" would harm the most vulnerable people in Quebec society. These People are the anglophone population.

New laws like instituting bill 101 in small business that used to be exempts of such laws would make it harder for the anglophone population to get a job or even keep there job. Now business with as few as 11 people would have to comply to bill 101.

But not all the new language laws will harm the anglophone population. Other rules the PQ are proposing like barring most francophone and anglophones from attending English CEGEP's. Will make it difficult for many to become bilingual. And statistically bilingual Quebecers make more money then there uni-lingual francophone counterparts. This isn't just an issue that will effect anglophones, because trying to reduce the Quebec's populations English language skills will harm the Quebec as a whole.

Yet Marois tries to defend her language laws by using the same old fear tactics that the french language will die if we don't.

"Our identity is so important. We are French people in North America. We are a small minority. If we don't wage this battle, we could lose this identity."

'If we don't wage this battle, we could lose [our] identity,'

"We have abandoned the defence of our language," she told reporters, saying the use of the French language is on the decline, particularly in Montreal.

Charest Strategy: Family!

2012-08-07T07:00:00.000-04:00

Jean Charest new proposal to give parents who send their kids to public primary school will get 100 dollars every year helps many people, because Many parents today are having trouble affording school supplies for their children. This plan will effect the parents of over 450,000 children who go to public primary schools in Quebec.100$ a year isn't a lot, but for many families it is good assistance.

Another Proposal by the Quebec Liberals to try and get young family voters was announced Sunday.This plan is to help business create daycares in workplaces. Another much needed assistance to families in Quebec which have a very hard time finding daycares. This proposal did come with some bad news, which was that the cost of daycare's will rise by the cost of living.

It seems the Liberal Party has mapped out it's strategy in this election. Since they can't get younger voters for obvious reasons then they are going for family voters. The PQ have yet to make any move on the campaign trail to attract these group of voters, which may be a fatal mistake for them as adults tend to vote more often then young people which seems to be the group they are courting.

Read More Here

Quebec Solidaire And The PQ

2012-08-06T07:00:00.000-04:00

Amir Khadir was the first Quebec Solidaire member of the national assembly, and now the Quebec Solidaire seems poised to try and gain another seat right next to Amir Khadir's. In the riding of Gouin the Co-President of the Quebec Solidaire Francois David is campaigning to try and get her party a second seat in the National Assembly.

In the last election Francois David got 7987 votes while the PQ candidate Nicholas Girard (who is also running in 2012) got 10276 votes. In total that about 2,300 votes difference, which may be a lot for the Quebec Solidaire to get. Especially with the PQ riding higher in the polls then they did in 2008, but the Quebec Solidare seems to be doing a very local campaign. In which they will be concentrating a lot more of there time on Gouin and Mercier (Amir Khadir's riding).

In 2008 Amir Khadir unseated a PQ MNA to get elected, if Francois David get's elected September 4th she will also unseat a PQ member of national assembly. What does this mean to the PQ chances of forming government. In an election so close the Quebec Solidaires two seat could make it or break it for the PQ. Francois David had this to say:

« Si à la fin de la campagne, il manque un seul comté pour que le PQ forme un gouvernement majoritaire, et bien je suis ouverte à dialoguer avec lui », a-t-elle lancé.

Which in English means that she would be open to having dialogue with the PQ after the election if they are missing one MNA to form a Majority government. And one would believe it very likely that the Quebec Solidaire would support the PQ form a government.

So now one can safely assume when making riding projections that if their is a minority government one can safely assume that the QS will be supporting the PQ.

Read more here

Marco Rubio for VP? Part 2

2012-08-05T07:00:00.000-04:00

I will now provide the answer to the final question and give the recap as well as the overall score and compare all three VP candidates I have so far analysed.

Final Question
Does Rubio come with baggage?
He does have a lot of political experience, but Marco Rubio doesn't have any executive experience, which is what Mitt has been screaming about when he talks about how he has a lot of executive experience making tough decisions. It would be hard to explain why the we must have a someone who has worked in the private sector and knows how to make executive decisions Mitt Romney would chose someone who has been in Politics for his entire working life. Rubio has Legislative experience as Senator and state congressman. This is not just a slight disadvantage, and will for sure make some questions about Rubio being pick. John Kasich worked in the private sector very recently for 8 years and Chirs Christie did have a job as a lawyer as well as executive experience as a governor.

To Recap?
Rubio will have an enormous amount of support coming with him on the ticket,and he would defiantly help Romney in some must win states like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa as well as New Hampshire. He also seems to have a clean record and shows no major disadvantage. Which is why many people in the Republican party are hoping Romney will chose Rubio. The only problem he did state before he isn't interested in running for VP, but that hasn't stopped many before.

Here is all the scoring of all three candidates with some slight changes

Score Marco Rubio John Kasich Chris Christie
Can he Help carry a state 4/4 1/4 2/4
Motivate a group 3/3 1/3 2/3*
Does he come with Baggage 1/3 2.5/3 2.5/3

Total 8/10 4.5/10 6.5/10

* The Reason I changed Christie's 3 to a 2 was because I found it unfair I gave him a 3 out of three for motivating the tea party and Marco the same score for motivating the tea party and getting Latino votes.

Marco Rubio for VP? Part 1

2012-08-04T13:00:00.000-04:00

Like I did for Christie and Kasich I will now analyse the benefits and the disadvantages of Marco Rubio as a VP choice.

First Question
Does he help carry any state?
Marco Rubio is the Senator from Florida which does for some reason always seem to be in the center of political campaigns. The only issue is Rubio isn't very popular in his state. Current polls have him with 46% disapproval and 41% approval, but I will explain why Rubio can still help Romney win Florida soon. Rubio like Christie can help carry states that are very pro Tea party. Like Iowa, Missouri and New Hampshire. Although it should be noted that Missouri is already leaning for Romney Iowa would still be a toss up and so would New Hampshire. But unlike Christie though he can get Latino voters. Which may help Romney in states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colardo and even Florida. This makes Rubio a very attractive candidate when it comes to electoral calculations.

Does he attract a group Romney can't?
Yes he does! Not only would the so called "crown prince of the Tea Party" be able to motivate the Tea party movement which has been very slow to go full out supporting Romney, but Rubio would also get Latino voters which helped Obama get elected in 2008. Exit polls in Rubio's senate race showed that Rubio got 55% of the Latino votes while Obama in 2008 won the Latino vote by 57% in Florida and 67% nationwide. If Rubio is the VP candidate he could attract many Latino voters which is a very crucial block for the Obama campaign especially in Florida where Latino voters already vote more Republican than the national average.

I will provide the answer, the recap as well as the score for all the three VP candidates that I have so far analysed on Sunday at 7.

Marois Startegy Clever, But Will It Work?

2012-08-04T07:00:00.000-04:00

In an effort to try and win the election Marois asked student Protesters to hold a truce on strikes until the election is over. Future confrontations with Police Marois said would benefit Charest Law and Order agenda.

She is right if there are major confrontations with police that leads to mass social unrest Charest will be seen as the person who can fix it all, and Marois will look like she is siding with the protesters. Also mass riots will take the issue of corruption and even tuition hikes off the view of the public. Just like it did a few months ago, because the issue become not whether we should reduce tuition, but how do we stop this unrest? Right now the more militant student group called La CLASS is considering whether or not to listen to Marois advice.

What Most probably will happen is that there will be some student protest, but there will be less. Whether the protest will be the main issue on voters mind has yet to be seen.It is clear more then ever that how to solve civil unrest will play a major factor in this election, but will it be the main theme of the election is yet to be seen.

“It would certainly be good to hold a truce,” Ms. Marois said on Thursday. “I invite students and those who marched in the streets to march towards their voting booths on election day and send a clear message to this government.”

Ms. Marois made the plea as she unveiled plans to freeze tuition fees for 100 days if the PQ forms the next government, promising a public forum to examine university funding. She said a PQ government would index any potential tuition fee hikes to the cost of living.

Boussole Électorale

2012-08-03T13:00:00.000-04:00

Which is french for Electoral Compass. The French version came almost right after an election on September 4th was certain on RDI. The English version is now Available on the CBC.

So, find out who you would vote for!
Alor, trover qui vous voteriez pour!

I got the Liberals as my first choice, take your try now.

And They Are Off.. PQ Lead!

2012-08-03T07:00:00.001-04:00

In a snap poll done just a few days ago shows the PQ may form the next government. According to the poll the PQ will get 39% and the Liberals will get 38%, while the CAQ will get 14% and the Quebec Solidare as well as the green party will get 4 and 3 percent respectively.

The Reason this shows that the PQ will form the government is, because when only polling francophone people who tend to decide most of Quebec's ridings come election night the PQ have a strong lead. With 43% saying they will vote PQ and only 32% saying they will vote Liberal.The Most surprising thing about this poll is that at the end of July the CAQ was hovering around the low 20's.

Another reason to suspect that the PQ are in the Lead is that according to the survey PQ voters are more excited to vote than Liberal. With 96% of PQ supporters polled said that they were sure they would vote in this election. The Liberals didn't even get close to that number among there supporters.

Still the election is still anyone's game. In Quebec in only takes a few weeks for everyone to change there minds completely .

Read more here

John Kasich for VP? Part 2

2012-08-02T13:00:00.000-04:00

And now as promised the final question as well as the recap and the overall score.

Third Question
Does John Kasich Bring any Baggage?
John Kasich does come with some small pieces of baggage. Let's begin with the less serious. John Kasich is undecided on whether Ohio should allow more use of casino's which traditionally most Republicans are against it, but again John is undecided so you can't attack a lot on that, and this is a very unimportant. The more serious baggage John as a VP nominee may face is a controversy he had with a police officer back in 2008. Where a police man pulled him over and gave him a ticket for not yielding to an emergency vehicle, and he admitted to wrong doing. The problem was that even after he admitted to doing wrong he then called the police man an idiot for doing his job. These are very small almost not worthy mentioning issue's.

To Recap
If Romney picks John Kasich there seems to be no gain for the Republican candidate. John doesn't motivate any group Romney is lacking, He also doesn't even help carry his own state. John also doesn't have any negative attributes, which means that he would be a safe choice for Romney. Because he wouldn't cause any damage or gain.

Scoring
Does he help Carry any state 1/4 (I gave him the one, because he wouldn't make Romney lose a state)
Does he motivate a group 1/3 (I gave him one because he doesn't unmotivated a group)
Does he have any baggage 2.5/3 (Because he brings very little baggage)

Total 4.5/10

John Kasich For VP? Part 1

2012-08-02T07:00:00.000-04:00

This is a part of my continuing quest to research every possible VP pick before Romney announces them. Today I will analyse John Kasich. He is the governor of Ohio. His name has been thrown around as a VP candidate over the past weeks.
I will be using the same format I used for when I researched Chris Christie , where I will pose some of the very important questions of choosing a VP and score them.

Let start with the first question
Does he Help Romney carry any state?
John Kasich is the Governor of the all important swing state of Ohio, which so far has the longest holding record of voting for the winner. The only issue he isn't popular in the state. His current approval rating in his state is 41% and disapproval is 44% according to a recent poll. Even when people of his state where asked who would make the best VP choice for Romney the current Governor came in 3rd place behind Rubio and Christie. While this doesn't mean Romney will lose any votes nominating Kasich doesn't seem like it would help the ticket. Other than that Kasich has no benefit for Romney in any other state.

Can he get any group Romney can't get?
The best answer to this question for Romney is usually either Hispanic voters or Tea Party voters (as they aren't so motivated to go out and vote). Unfortunately for Kasich he isn't well known by the country and Tea Party people don't very much know him. So he's hardly someone who can excite the base. According to exit polls he won the Governor race in 2010 by getting the demographics most Republicans rely on. He doesn't much motivate any group to come out and vote for him.

Later today I will post the nest question as well as the recap and his overall score.