Trifecta Billy

Breeders Cup Champions Crowned & Winners Announced

2016-11-07T10:23:00.000-08:00

In a "Classic" for the ages, it was youth served as Arrogate, trained by the inimitable Bob Baffert, runs down California Chrome in the final yards and wins the 2016 Breeders Cup Classic. It was a great performance by these two amazing thoroughbreds. Thank you to the connections of both of these outstanding horses who love to run fast, once again proving that the true measure of a champion is to run with all of their hearts and to give it their all on the track. Thank you to everyone who participated, and congratulations to all of the winners!.....

Mon. Winner: R.O. USA Book Winner
Tue. Winner: G.M. USA Book Winner
Wed. Winner: D.G. USA Book Winner
Thur. Winner: K.B. USA Book Winner
Fri. Winner: G.S. USA Book Winner, BC Picks, 1 yr. Amazon Prime Membership

Trifecta Billy's Free Breeders Cup Contest

2016-10-30T23:07:00.002-07:00

Trifecta Billy is proud to announce his first annual free Breeders Cup contest. This contest is in the spirit, memory, and honor of the following : My Father, My Mother, Roberto Clemente, Hollywood Park, and of course, the Breeders Cup. (The Super Bowl of horse racing for football fans.) There is no purchase necessary to win, the rules are simple and easy, and the prizes are cool and the coolest. I hope you will join me. My book, The King of Hearts : Baseball Diamonds & Life, has some great sports and human interest stories, and who doesn't want free shipping from Amazon, and all of the other benefits offered as an Amazon Prime member. As my good friend Jim says when he's saying goodbye, "Good Luck Everybody!" Click the read more button below the picture of my baseball hero, Roberto Clemente, for a complete listing of the rules for the free contest and the prizes that will be awarded.

The Rules & Prizes

Go to my contact page, put the "The King of Hearts" in the subject line, and send me an e-mail.
On Monday 10-31-2016, Tuesday 11-1-2016, Wednesday 11-2-2016, and Thursday 11-3-2016, one lucky winner will be drawn and each winner will receive a digital copy of my book, The King of Hearts : Baseball Diamonds & Life.
On Friday 11-4-16, one grand prize winner will receive a digital copy of my book The King of Hearts : Baseball Diamonds & Life, free Intelligent Choice horse racing selections for Saturday's Breeders Cup on 11-5-2016, and a free Amazon Prime membership for one year!
Only one entry per person.
Each entrant can only win one prize.
Each winner will be contacted via e-mail. Once your details are provided, you will receive your prize digitally or via e-mail. The grand prize winner will receive their prize both digitally and via e-mail.
Your email will not be sold, lent, or utilized for any reason other than to notify you of your prize winning entry. I promise.
Each prize will be randomly drawn and verified before notification.
Each winner agrees to allow me to post their first and last initial, as well as their country of origin on this blog on Sunday 11-6-16
All prizes to be awarded by Monday at 11:59 p.m. on 11-6-16
In the event a winner or winners does or do not respond to e-mails of prize notification by Sunday at 11:59 on 11-6-16, a new winner or winners will be drawn.

The King of Hearts : Baseball Diamonds & Life

2016-10-30T21:25:00.003-07:00

35 years ago my father passed away after a long and excruciating battle with cancer. He was truly one of the most courageous men I have ever known. His kindness and compassion for all human beings, especially those less fortunate, was undeniable. On Father's Day 2014, I wrote a short piece here on my blog, reliving a moment in time that has stood still for me all of these years. This book is the rest of his story. I tried to finish the story in 2014, but life happened in the worst way. My mother, who never smoked once in her lifetime, succumbed to an incurable lung disease and passed away late in 2014. Though she had read brief snippets of the beginning of the story, sadly she passed before the story was complete.....

I didn't know then, that the story could not be completed until May of 2016. When you read what happened, it will amaze you and remind you of just how mysterious life can be. I would like to thank you for taking the time to get to know my parents and the love that they showed to the world. Their love made it a better place. Thank you Mom & Dad.

The King of Hearts : Baseball Diamonds & Life

The Breeders Cup and Redemption Time

2016-10-30T15:27:00.002-07:00

The time of year that makes my pulse race and my heart pound, has finally arrived. It's the time of year to watch the world's best thoroughbreds come together to determine champions on the race track. This year they are meeting at the great race place, Santa Anita, the old familiar stomping grounds of California Chrome. I remember when he took the racing world by storm back in 2014, and all of the great memories that he brought to me and to millions of horse racing fans everywhere, after he won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, before his temporary setback when he was defeated in the Belmont Stakes in his quest for the Triple Crown. Now, 2 years later, after a rough ending to 2014 when he was defeated in the 2014 Breeders Cup Classic, and a rougher 2015 when he did not make the race, he is North America's top money earning thoroughbred of all time, with an astounding $13,432,650 in earnings from 24 career starts. That's $559,693.75 per start. When he comes onto the track on Nov. 5, 2016 he will be trying to cap his illustrious career with a win in the 2016 edition of the Breeders Cup Classic...

Win, lose, or draw it will be very exciting to see the action next Saturday, and no matter what happens life will go on. It always does. After a rough couple of years for this handicapper, much like California Chrome, I'm back. I'll be providing some excitement of my own in the days to follow, so stay tuned for details and your chance to win! In the meantime, enjoy this clip of California Chrome romping away like it was 2014 again!

50,767 Reasons Why It's Never Wise To Cancel A Breeders Cup Pick 6 Ticket and 1 Shared Belief

2014-10-27T10:02:00.000-07:00

Shared Belief

On November 2nd, 2013 I made one of the biggest mistakes of my life. I cancelled a $120 investment in the Breeders Cup Pick 6 sequence and placed a $64 wager instead. Instead of receiving $50,767.40 by hitting 6 of 6 and 8 consolations, I cashed for $1,625.60 by hitting the 5 of 6 consolation 4 times. Saying it was a bad decision is quite the understatement.

I turned the money I "saved" by lowering my investment into $2,500 net profit on the day, but.....
I still had trouble looking into the mirror for a "day" or two knowing how close I was to a life changing
moment that every handicapper lives for.
Then I realized something. I had correctly selected the winning combination on Breeders Cup day, which is arguably the most challenging Pick 6 sequence in horse racing and I began to think.
I did it once and I will do it again.

I consider myself a lucky man, but I know that hard work, belief, and passion for a definite chief aim in life, all matter far more than "luck." There is no such thing as failure in this handicappers eyes. Temporary setbacks happen in life and valuable lessons can be learned from them. Life offers second chances and "shots" at redemption as long as the "shots" coincide with the work, the belief, and the passion.
I have learned my lesson. I will never cancel another investment of this nature again. I will evaluate and analyze thoroughly the "past performances," write down the combinations, carefully ponder the risk, invest wisely and never look back.

In what has been a very difficult year for me personally, there have been some fantastic people whom I wouldn't have met had I cashed the Pick 6 ticket for $50,000. I wouldn't have met Sunny or Lorena, who encouraged me to share. I wouldn't have met my cohorts Mary and Bri, who taught me that laughter and conviction can go together in the right "resting" place. I wouldn't have met Lupita who reminded me how important it is to be enthusiastic. I wouldn't have met the team of friends who hold the shared belief that the Pick 6 is ours for the taking. All of you are worth the equivalent to me. Thank you.

The very important post position draw is in a few hours. The past performances should be out late tomorrow. The number crunching begins soon thereafter. Ahhhh....my element rapidly approaches....

Baze, Bing, Biz, Baffert, Bayern, Baseball and Billy. Oh Boy!

2014-07-29T11:02:00.000-07:00

Do you ever feel like there is so much to say, and so very little time to say it? That is the case for me today as the ebbs and tides, and the highs and lows of life, are swirling around me this morning. So I thought putting my thoughts into a short, compact list might be just the ticket. And away they go, as race caller Trevor Denman would say at the start of a race at Del Mar...

Baze, Bing...jockey Tyler Baze won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Sunday at Del Mar aboard upsetter Big Macher. I love the fact that the "kid" from Renton, Washington wins the race named after the "crooner" from Tacoma, Washington. Last month Tyler won the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita. After dealing with the loss of his cousin and fellow jockey Michael Baze a few years ago, then dealing with his suspension for alcohol abuse last year, it looks like the talented rider from the most legendary clan of jockeys in America is back. And he means Biz. And away they go.....
Biz, Baffert, Bayern...Fed Biz also meant Biz this past weekend at Del Mar as he romped to an easy 5 1/4 length victory in track record time of 1:41.00. Whose record did he break? Only the amazing Zenyatta's! What a Bizzzzy weekend it was for Mr. Bob Baffert. He had to win the San Diego handicap at Del Mar with Fed Biz, AND win the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on the other side of the country as Bayern upset Unbeatable.....hmmm..I meant Untapable. Those that follow me here know that Bayern was an IC1 winner for me @ juicy 9-1 odds on the Belmont Stakes day undercard. Look for more from this colt moving forward. He has much talent and the guidance of a hall of fame trainer who wins big races "once in a while." And here's the pitch, and it looks like a change-up...
Baseball... it is a change-up. The best one in the game. It belongs to Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez who last week against the Orioles in Seattle tied Tom Seaver's Major League Record set way back in 1971 for 13 consecutive starts of 7 plus innings while giving up 2 runs or less. I look for King Felix to break the mark in his next start on #HappyFelixDay, which is now my favorite day of the week. I will keep insisting what I have been for the last couple of weeks....#CyYoung4Felix...And away they go.....
Billy...I will always remember one piece of advice my sweet Mother gave to me many years ago. My Mother, who has the most beautiful blue eyes in the world, once told me to always wear shirts that matched my eyes, which closely resemble hers. It was excellent advice. Thank you Mom. I remember wearing my bright orange, navy,and red sweater a lot back in the 80's because you gave it to me. It's my lucky sweater. I was wearing it when I got a hole in one, and when I stood in the winners circle at Longacres in Renton, Washington. I still have the sweater you gave me Mom and will treasure it always, but going forward I think I will heed your advice, (which may have come after seeing me wear my lucky sweater so often,) and stick to blue, aqua, and teal colors. I love you Mom....Always and forever.

The 2014 Del Mar Meet Is Here & Away They Go

2014-07-17T15:47:00.002-07:00

The 2014 summer meet at Del Mar has gotten underway this afternoon. I have been to many race tracks in my lifetime, but in my mind Del Mar along the Pacific Ocean has to be the most incredible from both a visual and a horse betting standpoint. When the legendary singer Bing Crosby coos "Where the turf meets the surf down at old Del Mar," I must imagine that he had to have felt the same way that I do.

It was here, at this majestic and historic race track in the summer of 2009, where I hit the first Pick 6 ticket of my life not once, but twice due to a late scratch and I ended up cashing for a little over $4,900 from a measly $96 dollar investment. I remember it well as my top selection, IC1, won 5 of the 6 races in the sequence for me that afternoon.

So here we are 5 years later. This handicapper is delighted. It's summer. It's my time of year. But life tends to throw us many "curve balls," and unfortunately I will be unable to give as much attention to this meet as I have in previous summers. But I can do the following. I will share as much information as my time permits. For those of you who love to see these great animals run, Del Mar is one of the greatest places on earth to do so. Enjoy!

The "Raider" Strikes Again at Royal Ascot or Was it Destiny?

2014-06-20T11:27:00.000-07:00

Wesley Ward photo by Tod Marks

Wesley Ward won the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot earlier this week with Hootenanny, a 2 year old son of Quality Road, ridden by Victor Espinoza. Hootenanny had to defeat an exceptionally large field of 24 rivals. He did it easily by 3 1/2 lengths. What an amazing feat, in what is now becoming a regular June sojourn for one Wesley Ward. I have to admit I smiled a little upon hearing the news. This is Wesley's 4th win at the very prestigious Royal Ascot meet since 2009, and he is now being referred to as the American "raider," after flying across the pond to steal yet another purse from the Brits.

But I have another thought. What if Wesley Ward is not a "raider" at all and is just living his destiny. Could he possibly have dreamed as a young boy that he would win the 1984 Eclipse award for Outstanding Apprentice Jockey? He has. Could he possibly have imagined that one day as a trainer he would win 4 times with 2 year old horses at the grandest turf racing festival in the world, Royal Ascot. He has. And could he possibly have thought when he was a young boy in Selah, Washington that he would meet the Queen of England someday? He has. Maybe it was meant to be, but why?

I'm sure Wesley learned from his father what I learned from my father. Anything is possible if you believe. I know this because I watched Wesley believe he could win every race in the early 1980's at the now closed Yakima Meadows. I watched how he and his father Dennis Ward, who provided me with many a winner over the years, treated the horses with love and respect. Though he is a long way from Selah right now, I would say he's succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. Or was it destiny.

For Wesley Ward the Sport of Kings,

it appears, comes down to one thing: “I

just love the horses,” he said. “I really

love what I do. The one thing about

racing is, you always have something to

look forward to no matter how down you

are.” He pauses slightly and then adds,

“In racing, there’s always hope.”

Wesley Ward

Don't

Ever

Stop

Trying

It's

Not

Yet over

William King

Happy Fathers Day

2014-06-15T09:17:00.000-07:00

A few days ago, Sunny Cadwallader, who works at SportsManias and is a trend setter when it comes to sports and social media, asked me to tell her one thing that I wanted her to know about me. What I chose to tell her was that I once stood in the batters box at Parker Field in Yakima, Washington against Randy Johnson. Thirty three years ago I was looking at that face behind the glove, dug into the batters box, prepared to swing at the first good pitch I saw from the tallest, most intimidating pitcher I had ever faced. We were both kids, just a mere 17 years old.

I think one of the scouts who was at the game had him clocked at 95 mph but.....
it seemed like the speed of light to me and my teammates. In my first at bat, and for the first time in my life, I couldn't see the ball. It was just a streak of white in the night sky. In fact, I struck out the first 2 times I faced him. Because I couldn't "see" it.

In my final at bat, my coach had recommended placing my hands directly in front of me to shorten my swing in what is called a slap bunt, and it worked. Randy finally hit my bat. The right fielder caught it in front of the warning track about 350 feet away. A bunt swing proved that the harder the pitch is coming, the further it will go if you make contact.

I wanted to say thank you to my dad, on Father's Day for giving me every opportunity to have those 3 at bats against the future Major League Baseball Hall of Famer. It taught me that anything is possible in life no matter how big the challenge. You see, two days prior to those 3 at bats, I had carried my dying father out of his hospital room so he could peacefully pass away at home. He had fought a hard battle against cancer for 10 months to see me play, after the doctors had given him 6 months to live. Now that's courage. Going 0-3 against Randy with 2 strikeouts... That's easy. Ask anyone who faced him.

Sorry that you didn't get to see him pitch dad. He was amazing, but so were you. Happy Father's Day!

2014 Belmont Stakes : Belmont Pick 6, Belmont Pick 4, and Belmont Trifecta Plays Starring California Chrome

2014-06-07T11:25:00.000-07:00

California Chrome & Victor Espinoza Photo by Los Alamitos

The 2014 Belmont Stakes card is underway and here are the winners through the first 5 races

Race 1
IC4 Wabbajack at odds of 5-2
The all IC $.10 superfecta returned a whopping $43.05 for a $2.40 wager.

Race 2
IC3 Kid Cruz at odds of 3-1

Race 3
Longshot Norumbega at odds of 10-1

Race 4
Longshot Undrafted at odds of 9-2

Race 5
IC1 Bayern at odds of 9-1

Trifecta Billy Belmont Picks

$2 Pick 6 :

Race 6 : 1-3-5-8-9

Race 7 : 1-5-6

Race 8 : 6-9-10

Race 9 : 1

Race 10 : 1-6

Race 11 : 2

$180

$.50 Pick 4

Race 8 : 4-5-6-8-9-10

Race 9 : 1-4-5-9-13

Race 10 : 1-2-3-4-5-6-8

Race 11 : 2

$105

$1 Trifecta

Race 11 : 2 / 1-4-5-7-8-9-10-11 / 1-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11

$72

$1 Trifecta

Race 11 : 1-4-5-7-8-9-10-11 / 2 / 1-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11

$72

2014 Belmont Stakes : Free Intelligent Choice Selections...IC1 California Chrome to Win the Belmont

2014-06-06T12:13:00.000-07:00

California Chrome & Alan Sherman Photo by Mike Kane

The big day at "Big Sandy" has arrived. Will the light shine brightly on California Chrome as it did in Louisville and then again as it did in Pimlico? The waiting is over. It's time to dance, and when the dance is over, I picture a wave of euphoria from sea to shining sea in this great land of ours. The roar will echo from Southern California and the great Pacific Ocean, all the way to the Atlantic Ocean near New York. That's what I envision having analyzed the numbers, the human connections, and most importantly the beautiful 3 year old chestnut son of Lucky Pulpit named California Chrome. I've written extensively as to why he has been selected as IC1 in his last 4 races. I've also "seen" things from him that I have "seen" in other great horses, especially Zenyatta and the confidence that she exuded on the racetrack. She was the show and she knew it, and so does he. She knew that all the people came to see her, and so does he. She loved to win and so does he.

Can we put him in the same category? Not just yet. If California Chrome wins the Belmont Stakes and garners the elusive Triple Crown victory though, he will have taken about 1000 strides towards that same distinction. Just like he loves to do in the stretch drive. Win, lose, or draw it has been one amazing ride. One that I am very grateful to have been along for. Thank you Perry, Steve, Art, Alan, Victor, Willie, and Raul for bringing out the very best in your amazing horse. May the journey be a safe and victorious one. Here are the free IC selections.

Race 1-----Allowance 96000N1X -----1 1/16 Miles

IC1-----#2 Bernardo / J. Toscano Jr. / J. Ortiz / 3-1

IC2-----#7 Forever Thing / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez / 7-2

IC3-----#4 Lieutenant Seany O / D. Jacobson / 6-1

IC4-----#8 Wabbajack / J. Toner / R. Maragh / 8-1

Race 2-----The Easy Goer $150,000-----1 1/16 Miles

IC1-----#5 Misconnect / T. Pletcher / J. Castellano / 4-1

IC2-----#6 No Surrender / T. Pletcher / J. Bravo / 8-1

IC3-----#4 Kid Cruz / L. Rice / I. Ortiz Jr. / 5-2

IC4-----#7 Legend / H. Bond / L. Saez / 3-1

Race 3-----The Brooklyn Invitational Grade II $500,000-----1 1/2 Miles

IC1-----#4 Cat Burglar / B. Baffert / R. Napravnik / 5-2

IC2-----#2 Ground Transport / M. Stidham / J. Velazquez / 3-1

IC3-----#3 Micromanage / T. Pletcher / J. Castellano / 7-2

IC4-----#1 Eriugena (Ire) / M. Maker / M. Smith / 10-1

Race 4-----The Jaipur Invitational Grade III $300,000-----6 Furlongs (Inner Turf)

IC1-----#11 Salto / T. Pletcher / I. Ortiz Jr. / 5-1

IC2-----#10 Marchman / W. Calhoun / R. Albarado / 3-1

IC3-----#8 Ben's Cat / K. Leatherbury / J. Pimentel / 5-2

IC4-----#3 Marriedtothemusic / L. Rice / C. Velasquez / 12-1

Race 5-----The Woody Stephens Grade II $500,000-----7 Furlongs

IC1-----#1 Bayern / B. Baffert / G. Stevens / 5-1

IC2-----#5 Coup de Grace / C. Brown / J. Castellano / 10-1

IC3-----#7 Tonito M. / J. Hollendorfer / C. Nakatani / 20-1

IC4-----#3 Havana / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez / 6-1

Race 6-----The TVG Acorn Grade I $750,000-----1 Mile

IC1-----#8 My Miss Sophia / T. Pletcher / J. Castellano / 6-5

IC2-----#3 Fiftyshadesofgold / W. Calhoun / M. Smith / 8-1

IC3-----#9 Artemis Agrotera / M. Hushion / J. Ortiz / 5-1

IC4-----#5 Sweet Reason / L. Gyarmati / I. Ortiz Jr. / 10-1

Race 7-----The Ogden Phipps Grade I $1,000,000-----1 1/16 Miles

IC1-----#1 Close Hatches / W. Mott / J. Rosario / 5-2

IC2-----#5 Beholder / R. Mandella / G. Stevens / 7-5

IC3-----#6 Princess of Sylmar / T. Pletcher / J. Castellano / 9-5

IC4-----#2 Antipathy / K. McLaughlin / I. Ortiz Jr. / 30-1

Race 8-----The Longines Just a Game Grade I $750,000-----1 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#9 Discreet Marq / C. Clement / I. Ortiz Jr. / 5-2

IC2-----#6 Stephanie's Kitten / C. Brown / J. Velazquez / 4-1

IC3-----#10 Better Lucky / T. Albertrani / J. Rosario / 3-1

IC4-----#8 Waterway Run / C. Brown / J. Lezcano / 6-1

Race 9-----The Metropolitan Handicap Grade I $1,250,000-----1 Mile

IC1-----#9 Normandy Invasion / C. Brown / J. Castellano / 5-1

IC2-----#1 Palace Malice / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez / 8-5

IC3-----#13 Shakin It Up / B. Baffert / R. Napravnik / 6-1

IC4-----#4 Goldencents / D. O'Neill / M. Smith / 10-1

Race 10-----The Knob Creek Manhattan Grade I $1,000,000-----1 1/4 Miles (Inner Turf)

IC1-----#1 Imagining / C. McGaughey III / J. Velazquez / 7-2

IC2-----#5 Boisterous / T. Pletcher / C. Nakatani / 8-1

IC3-----#10 Chamois / C. Clement / J. Bravo / 15-1

IC4-----#8 Real Solution / J. Castellano / 5-1

IC5-----#6 Seek Again / W. Mott / J. Rosario / 3-1

Race 11-----The Belmont Grade I $1,500,000-----1 1/2 Miles

IC1-----#2 California Chrome / A. Sherman / V. Espinoza / 3-5

IC2-----#9 Wicked Strong / J. Jerkens / R. Maragh / 6-1

IC3-----#7 Samraat / R. Violette Jr. / J. Ortiz / 20-1

IC4-----#8 Commissioner / T. Pletcher / J. Castellano / 20-1

IC5-----#4 Commanding Curve / D. Stewart / S. Bridgmohan / 15-1

Race 12-----Optional Claiming 62k/N2X-----1 1/8 Miles (Inner Turf)

IC1-----#1 Cheyenne Nation / R. Rodriguez / C. Velasquez / 12-1

IC2-----#6 Red Vine / C. Clement / J. Rosario / 5-1

IC3-----#12 Mr. Jenney / C. Clement / J. Lezcano / 4-1

IC4-----#3 Inchcape / J. Servis / I. Ortiz Jr. / 12-1

Race 13-----Optional Claiming 62k/N2X-----7 Furlongs

IC1-----#5 In Trouble / A. Dutrow / R. Napravnik / 5-2

IC2-----#11 Celebrator / T. Pletcher / J. Velazquez / 10-1

IC3-----#1 Kingsford Drive / B. Brown / J. Lezcano / 15-1

IC4-----#8 Pazolini / K. McLaughlin / J. Rosario / 3-1

The IC selections have an excellent track record at Belmont Park. The Trifecta's, Superfectas, Pick 3's, Pick 4's, and Pick 6 investments can be life changing in these very large pari-mutuel pools.

Enjoy the day and the moment. You never know when a life changer can appear, but I'm ready.

I can see the finish line, and I like what I see.

2014 Belmont Stakes : A Triple Crown Triumph is California Chrome's Ultimate Destiny Dance

2014-06-04T01:42:00.000-07:00

Photo by William King

A few days after California Chrome arrived in New York, and 5 or 6 days after he had toyed with the field in the 2014 Preakness Stakes, I arose from my chair that particular morning and went outside. My view stretches over the mountain top and looks east towards Belmont Park about 3000 miles away. As I looked eastward at the "chestnut" sunrise with the "purple" silk like clouds perched above, I reflected upon the amazing journey this brilliant colt from California has taken us on this year. He is on the verge of becoming the first Triple Crown winner in 36 years, the first Triple Crown winner ever bred in California, and the first Triple Crown winner to have beaten this large of a field in the Belmont Stakes. It's been a magnificent journey so far.

In March ,earlier this year, he caught the eye of my good friend and astute handicapper Capp'n Q, who loved him before the G2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. We discussed his bloodlines and found a bevy of superstars in his family tree giving us further evidence that this horse may be something special. When the 2014 Kentucky Derby rolled around a short time later it became very evident to this handicapper that it was quite likely that something very special was about to happen when he was the "underdog" "favorite." And it did, when California Chrome turned on the afterburners in deep stretch and pulled away by 5 lengths before "slowing" down and winning by 1 3/4 lengths easily. I thought about this upcoming Saturday.

He was an easy selection in the 2014 Preakness Stakes and got a chance to display his amazing tactical speed both out of the gate and down the stretch. It was a masterful ride and a brilliant run by the "polished" California Chrome in Maryland as he won again by 1 3/4 comfortable lengths. Again I thought of this Saturday.

When I touched on the mental toughness, the look of a champion, and their unique post parade "dances" that shows the other horses who they have to beat if they want to win, I wasn't yet aware that I would be adding another name to the list of magnificent horses, but here we are. With 2 races down and 1 race to go, I've got my pen ready. I'm ready to crown a magnificent colt named California Chrome as one of horse racing's all time greats. In just a few days, barring something extraordinary, he will join his Great Great Grandfather, Seattle Slew, as a Triple Crown winner and a legend.

Thank you again for the beautiful "chestnut" sunrise mother nature. I've looked at the picture at the top of the page, and was in awe when I saw it in real life. It was magnificent, but I've looked at the amazing photo taken by Mike Kane, and after thorough analysis, I have to give this nod to the beautiful "chestnut" Triple Crown winner, California Chrome. When I look at the eyes of assistant trainer Alan Sherman, it appears that he is in awe as well. Sorry mother nature, but this time I have to put you behind Seattle Slew, Zenyatta, and California Chrome.

California Chrome & asst. trainer Alan Sherman Photo by Mike Kane

2014 Belmont Stakes : What Did The Opossum Say To California Chrome?

2014-05-29T06:14:00.000-07:00

Peter Opossum : Hey California Chrome...PSSSST...You have a minute?

California Chrome : Sure my friend. How you doing?

Peter Opossum : I just wanted to apologize for getting so close to you during your workout at Belmont
today.

California Chrome : No problem buddy. Hey, do you have any of those cookies my owners like to give me?

Peter Opossum : Sorry my friend. I might have an Oreo or something. Let me check....Nahhh.

California Chrome : That's okay. I only like this one kind. Mrs. Pasture's paddock cookies...yummy!

Peter Opossum : Nice...Maybe I'll swing by after you eat one and grab some crumbs.

California Chrome : Sure...I will have plenty very soon. They like to give them to me when I win.

Peter Opossum : That's why I crossed the track the other day. You see back in 1977 my great great
grandfather, who I was named after, saw your great great grandfather, Seattle Slew,
win the Triple Crown, and I wanted to see you up close and personal.

California Chrome : I appreciate that. Thank you very much. I love to run fast. Real fast.

Peter Opossum : I know you do. You have run very fast all year. You've won every race that you have ran
in this year. A perfect 5 for 5, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, the Grade 1
Kentucky Derby, and your last race, the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. In fact, you have
now beaten 50 horses this year in those 5 races.

California Chrome : Hmmm...I didn't know that. I just like to run fast and eat those paddock cookies. I love
my owners, my trainer, and of course Alan, Victor and Willie. They take care of me and
let me gallop around the track and when that happens I get to run fast, and then I get
those delicious cookies after the race.

Peter Opossum : Nice. Well all of the animals around the track think you are going to win the Belmont
Stakes and take the Triple Crown back to California with you. We're all pulling for you.
We don't believe the so called experts in the media who don't think you can win. We've
watched all your races. It seems like your friend Victor Espinoza has been saving your
energy all year just for this moment.

California Chrome : Indeed he has... I wanted to run faster in Kentucky, but Victor is very smart and
made me slow down at the end. Then I got to run very fast in Maryland.

Peter Opossum : You did run very fast and I am sure glad that you let me run with you today. It was an
honor, and a great memory for me. I will treasure it forever and hopefully one day my
offspring will get to run on the track with your offspring.

California Chrome : No problem friend. Hey...Have you got any of those Mrs. Pasture's paddock cookies?

His Name is California Chrome and He's Magnificent!

2014-05-25T15:44:00.000-07:00

California Chrome photo courtesy of Los Alamitos

He came from humble beginnings. It started with a vision in the minds of his owners who had the foresight to purchase his unwanted mother and breed her to a grandson of Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy and great grandson of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, who also came from a vision of his owners.

He began his life on a farm in central California, and his racing career started under the watchful eye of his trainer Art Sherman, who was born in New York, and also came from humble beginnings. After Hollywood Park closed in December of 2013 he trained and was stabled at a very humble, modest and now very proud track in Los Alamitos, California.

Now this magnificent colt, after beginning his racing career on the southern California racing circuit, is on the verge of winning the Triple Crown. His heart knows no bounds. His mind is focused on winning, as he has shown us each and every time he has set foot on the race track this year. His adventure started about 5 miles from the Pacific Ocean, and will continue in 2 weeks about 10 miles from the Atlantic Ocean.

He showed us what he could do in Kentucky. He showed us what he could do in Maryland. There is no doubt in my mind that no matter what happens, this magnificent colt will display his heart and courage, and show all of us what he can do in New York. This handicapper can hardly wait.

2014 Preakness Stakes : Free Intelligent Choice Selections

2014-05-17T07:31:00.002-07:00

California Chrome working at Pimlico Photo by Jim McCue/JMC

One down, two to go. The Kentucky Derby has been run, and now it's time for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico to deliver the drama, as California Chrome looks to lock up the victory and head to Belmont Park in his quest for the Triple Crown. Two weeks ago he was the "underdog" "favorite" and became the first California bred to win the Derby since Decidely in 1962, and today he seeks to become the first California bred since Snow Chief in 1986 to win the Preakness Stakes.

I mentioned earlier this week that I felt that California Chrome would be very, very tough to deny when they turned for home at Pimlico and, despite a minor throat issue, my opinion has not wavered. My fellow horse racing prognosticators and enthusiasts, Capp'n Q and Daily Dub, also feel that we will see California Chrome head to Belmont Park with a perfect 5 for 5 record this year and a chance at immortality. But they still have to race and, just like in life, nothing is guaranteed. The Intelligent Choice system picked him for many reasons and Saturday those reasons will be on display for all to see, just as they were in the Derby. Here are the Intelligent Choice selections for Preakness Saturday after the early morning changes.

Race 1-----Md Sp Wt 50K-----1 1/16 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#4 Relentless Ride / J. Lawrence / A. Cintron / 6-1
IC2-----#8 Margin / M. Pino / J. Castellano / 9-2
IC3----- #2 Mount Coronet / H. Smith / V. Carrasco / 14-1
IC4-----#9 Interpol / G. Motion / A. Garcia / 7-2

Race 2-----Starter Handicap 40K-----1 1/16 Mile

IC1-----#10 No Brakes / P. Schoenthal / H. Karamanos / 6-1
IC2-----#5 Lunar Rock / T. Keefe / S. Russell / 5-2
IC3-----#1 Outhaul / L. Stickler Jr. / J. Tunon / 15-1
IC4-----#7 Regal Warrior / H. McMahon / T. McCarthy / 3-1

Race 3-----OC 25k/N2X-----1 1/16 Mile ~~(Turf)~~ Off Turf

IC1-----#11 Soup d'Coupe / D. Capuano / J. Castellano / 6-1
IC2-----#9 Tom Kitten / M. Vitali / O. Bocachica / 12-1
IC3-----#4 Romp City / C. Gonzalez / H. Karamanos / 6-1
IC4-----#7 Prospero / M. Trombetta / T. McCarthy / 3-1

Race 4-----OC 25k/N2X-----5 Furlongs (Turf)

IC1-----#7 Majestic Hussar / W. Ward / V. Espinoza / 8-5
IC2-----#11 Silvertonguedtommy / K. Magee / V. Carrasco / 15-1
IC3-----#1 I.E. Flash / H. Elamri / G. Cruise / 10-1
IC4-----#1A High Bar / H. Elamri / E. Rosa / 10-1

Race 5-----The Maryland Sprint Handicap G3-----6 Furlongs

IC1-----#3 Lemon Drop Dream / S. Asmussen / R. Santana Jr. / 4-1
IC2-----#5 Service for Ten / E. Geralis / S. Russell / 6-1
IC3-----#1 Sneaking Uponyou / J. Ness / L. Saez / 12-1
IC4-----#2 Happy My Way / J. Orseno / J. Bravo / 6-5

Race 6-----The Very One 100K-----5 Furlongs (Turf)

IC1-----#12 Sensible Lady / A. Goldberg / J. Rosario / 7-2
IC2-----#7 Ageless / A. Delacour / L. Garcia / 9-2
IC3-----#3 Madame Giry / C. Gambolati / T. McCarthy / 5-1
IC4-----#11 Jewel of a Cat / B. Perkins Jr. / J. Velasquez / 10-1

Race 7-----The Chick Lang 100K-----6 Furlongs

IC1-----#2 Extrasexyhippzster / M. Trombetta / J. Pimentel / 3-1
IC2-----#3 Jessethemarine / J. Rigattieri / J Caraballo / 15-1
IC3-----#9 Brewing / D Wayne Lukas / L. Saez / 8-5
IC4-----#8 Prudhoe Bay / E. Plesa Jr. / A. Serpa / 10-1

Race 8-----The James W. Murphy 100K-----1 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#4 Wallyanna / M. Pino / J. Castellano / 8-1
IC2-----#10 Allstar / M. Vitali / O. Bocachica / 30-1
IC3-----#6 Thunder Strike (GB) / G. Motion / J. Velasquez / 8-1
IC4-----#2 Camden Street / T. Pletcher / J. Bravo / 7-2

Race 9-----The Gallorette Handicap G3-----1 1/16 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#10 Watsdachances (Ire) / C. Brown / J. Castellano / 4-1
IC2-----#9 Starstruck (Ire) / L. Jones / K. Clark / 5-1
IC3-----#7 Strathnaver (GB) / G. Motion / J. Rosario / 3-1
IC4-----#6 Lady Ten / M. Trombetta / J. Pimentel / 10-1

Race 10-----The Sir Barton 100K-----1 1/16 Mile

IC1-----#2 Six Spot / S. Asmussen / R. Santana Jr. / 5-1
IC2-----#3 Life in Shambles / C. Clement / J. Rosario / 6-1
IC3-----#1 Sea View Chico / L. Jones / J. Caraballo / 12-1
IC4-----#10 Class Leader / N. Howard / J. Graham / 7-2

Race 11-----The Dixie G2-----1 1/16 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#7 Chamois / C. Clement / J. Bravo / 6-1
IC2-----#3 Charming Kitten / T. Pletcher / J. Velasquez / 9-2
IC3-----#8 Up With the Birds / M. Pierce / J. Rosario / 5-1
IC4-----#6 Hey Leroy / M. Azpurua / J. Castellano / 5-2

Race 12-----The Preakness G1-----1 3/16 Mile

IC1-----#3 California Chrome / A. Sherman / V. Espinoza / 3-5
IC2-----#5 Bayern / B. Baffert / R. Napravnik / 10-1
IC3-----#8 Social Inclusion / M. Azpurua / L. Contreras / 5-1
IC4-----#9 Pablo Del Monte / W. Ward / J. Sanchez / 20-1

Race 13-----Md Sp Wt 50k-----6 Furlongs

IC1-----#5 My Son Ernie / A. Dutrow / A. Cintron / 9-5
IC2-----#7 Nevsky / M. Vitali / O. Bocachica / 12-1
IC3-----#1A Negrito / T. Tullock Jr. / J. Pimentel / 3-1
IC4-----#6 Take This / A. Delacour / L. Garcia / 6-1

That ladies and gentlemen is a wrap on the entire Preakness Day card. It's our deepest hope that all of the jockeys and horses will be safe on this historic day. And may the big race be as exciting as I imagine it in my mind. When they turn for home, and this special colt from California does what he has done in each of his races this year, there will be a raucous roar from this camp and across the land!

TRIFECTA BILLY PREAKNESS DAY SPECIALS

Race 12
$1 Trifecta : Play IC1 #3 to win with all to run 2nd, and 3rd = $72
$1 Exacta : Play IC1 #3 to win with all to run 2nd = $9
$5 Trifecta : Play IC1 #3 to win with IC2 #5 to run 2nd and all to run 3rd = $40
$1 Trifecta : Play IC2 #5 to win with IC1 #3 to run 2nd and all to run 3rd = $8
$5 Trifecta : Play IC1 #3 to win with IC3 #8 to run 2nd and all to run 3rd = $40
$1 Trifecta : Play IC3 #8 to win with IC1 #3 to run 2nd and all to run 3rd = $8

May all of your investments be winning ones !!!!!

2014 Preakness Stakes : It'll be Tough to Beat a "Polished" California Chrome

2014-05-14T00:43:00.000-07:00

California Chrome & Assistant Trainer Alan Sherman Photo by Mike Kane

The post position draw for the 2014 Preakness Stakes is today, and the anticipation is building as the continuing story of California Chrome unfolds. Trifecta Billy and the rest of the team here have come to a conclusion. California Chrome will be IC1 and he loves to win races. He loves to run fast, and he is going to be very, very tough to deny when they turn for home on Saturday in this 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.

Because of the lighter field, the draw for post position is not nearly as much of a factor as it was in Louisville on the Wednesday before the run for the roses. There, where he landed the 5 post it really cemented him as the winner for me. He had so much, from a speed handicapping standpoint, going for him, then he drew one of the best posts possible for his speed, and his "close to the pace" style of running.

What he has accomplished this year is pretty amazing,Take a look at what he has done so far.

1-25-2014 Wins the 1 1/16 mile Cal Cup Derby at Santa Anita by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:43.1
3-8-2014 Wins the 1 1/16 mile Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita by 7 1/4 lengths in 1:40.2
4-5-2014 Wins the 1 1/8 mile Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita by 5 1/4 lengths in 1:47.2
5-3-2014 Wins the 1 1/4 mile Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs by 1 3/4 lengths in 2:03.3

4 wins in 4 starts by a combined total of 19.33 lengths for earnings of $2.34 million dollars.

And he has done it gearing down in deep stretch in each of these wins. I wonder what will happen when he gets asked to run for an entire stretch?

He is very polished. He looks like a star. He acts like a star. He runs like a star. He knows who he is and so do his handlers. Anything can happen in horse racing and sometimes does, but it's certainly hard to "imagine" any other choice than a "reality" based decision on who will be the best horse on Saturday. As a handicapper I always use "imagination" to envision how the race will transpire, and I will always use "reality" (what I read, what I see, what I hear, and what I know) when it comes time to invest. I do know one thing, and that is this : If any other runner wants to beat California Chrome on Saturday, they will have to bring their A+ game. Here is, the polished one, and the field that will try to upset the heavy favorite.

California Chrome----------Art Sherman----------Victor Espinoza----------Lucky Pulpit
Pablo Del Monte-----------Wesley Ward----------Jeffrey Sanchez---------Giant's Causeway
Kid Cruz--------------------Linda Rice------------Julian Pimentel-----------Lemon Drop Kid
Social Inclusion--------------Manny Azpurua-------Luis Contreras----------Pioneerof The Nile
Ride On Curlin--------------William Gowan--------Joel Rosario-------------Curlin
Dynamic Impact-------------Mark Casse-----------Miguel Mena------------Tiznow
Bayern----------------------Bob Baffert------------Rosie Napravnik---------Offlee Wild
Ring Weekend--------------Graham Motion--------Alan Garcia--------------Tapit
Ria Antonio-----------------Tom Amoss------------To be announced--------Rockport Harbor
General A Rod--------------Michael Maker---------To be announced--------Roman Ruler

That's the field for the 2014 Preakness Stakes. We'll be "polishing" the Intelligent Choice system waiting for the "Past Performances," and "imagining" what is going to happen as California Chrome's dance with destiny continues here in round 2.

The Light Shines Bright For California Chrome

2014-05-06T05:13:00.000-07:00

Photo by Steve Haskin

The light was shining on California Chrome in Kentucky. He passed with flying colors. Now he goes to Maryland, the birthplace of his mother, to take on all comers in the 139th running of the Preakness Stakes and to try and capture the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown.

The light was also shining brightly on DAP racing, Art Sherman, and Victor Espinoza, as California Chrome burst away from the field and cruised to an easy 1 3/4 length victory over 18 rivals in the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby. And just as Espinoza had done in the Santa Anita Derby, he geared down California Chrome when he knew no one could beat him.

There was a little light shining on Trifecta Billy also. The free exacta pick I posted the morning of the Kentucky Derby paid a generous $170 for each $1 exacta. In addition, two of the free trifecta picks I posted cashed big as well paying $1,712.30 for each of the winning $1 trifecta selections posted. The total net profit on the picks posted was a whopping $2,618.60!!!..... IC1 won four of the thirteen races on the big day. "And they're off".... To the Preakness.

The 140th Running of the Kentucky Derby

2014-05-06T02:53:00.000-07:00

California Chrome wins the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby convincingly.

They grow up so fast!

Here's another cool clip of California Chrome "growing up to be a rock star"....

2014 Kentucky Derby : Free Intelligent Choice Selections

2014-05-03T07:46:00.000-07:00

As promised, here are the Intelligent Choice racing system selections for the 2014 Kentucky Derby, plus a little more information about Trifecta Billy's IC racing system.

In 2004 I devised a pure mathematical system based on 20 key points in the past performances of the horses. The system is weighted and utilizes many variables that relate to the consistency and performance of each horse. It takes roughly 15 minutes to IC a race and provides a great handicapping tool that seeks out live long shots and standout favorites alike. It really focuses on the horse with the best chance of winning. It has very little to do with the betting odds of the horses.

The first year it was created, we did a year long study from many different tracks around the country. Some of the results were astonishing. My friend Capp'n Q, called me one day from Emerald Downs in Auburn, Washington, and wanted to know who the system had selected for a race at Turfway Park, in Florence, Kentucky. I told him the system selection, and he was surprised when I told him the #5 horse was IC1, or the top selection. He then told me why he was surprised. It seems the #5 horse was 25-1. He then wanted to know who the IC selections were for the 2 following races. I told him, and he said he would call me back in a couple of hours. When he called me back, he sounded happy, and then he told me he had $700 for me after he hit a huge Pick 3 that had paid a little bit over $3,000. The #5 horse had won the race and paid $56 to win. We were ecstatic, and tried the system at Breeders Cup at Belmont Park in 2005. That year a undefeated sprinter named Lost In The Fog, who was 10-0 at the time, lost the Breeders Cup Sprint to IC1, Silver Train, who was 11-1 keying a big Pick 3 for us. The first of many Pick 6 tickets that I have accurately selected was 5 IC1 selections in a row with a non IC, but logical choice. I actually hit the Pick 6 twice after a selection of mine scratched and I received the favorite in the race who just so happened to be IC1. My net profit after the 2 Pick 6 tickets and the consolations was just over $4,800.

The success stories are long with the system, but it does not contain the human element, nor the heart and tenacity of the magnificent thoroughbreds that I love to watch run. And though it can never be perfect due to obvious extenuating circumstances, it is a tremendous handicapping tool that helps to guide us to the winners. Let's see how the IC selections perform on the Kentucky Derby card today.

Race 1-----Alw30000s-----1 Mile

IC1-----#2 Upkeep / P. Bauer / J. Rocco Jr.
IC2-----#3 Nick's Pick / T. Amoss / L. Goncalves
IC3-----#6 Prosecution / B. Cox / J. Court
IC4-----#8 Doctor Peter / D. Anderson / C. Borel

Race 2-----OC 75k/N1X-----1 1/16 Mile

IC1-----#1 No Surrender / T. Pletcher / J. Bravo
IC2-----#6 Chas's Legacy / P. Byrne / J. Rocco Jr.
IC3-----#7 Rockford / W. Mott / J. Rosario
IC4-----#5 Demander / I. Wilkes / B. Hernandez Jr.

Race 3-----Md Sp Wt 60k-----6 Furlongs

IC1-----#8 A Touch of Poetry / N. Zito / J. Ortiz
IC2-----#4 Swift Humor / B. Colebrook / J. Graham
IC3-----#9 Coastal Moon / M. Casse / S. Elliott
IC4-----#2 Reeder / B. Colebrook / J. Rocco Jr.

Race 4-----(Fillies & Mares) Alw 65000N1X-----1 1/16 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#8 First Romance / T. McCauley / J. Rocco Jr.
IC2-----#7 Flashy Gal / W. Catalano / J. Rosario
IC3-----#2 Faerie Queene / R. Hiles / C. Lanerie
IC4-----#3 Magical Steps / B. Colebrook / J. Graham

Race 5-----OC 75k/N1X-----7 Furlongs

IC1-----#7 Thundergram / M. Casse / S. Elliott
IC2-----#3 Standpoint / S. Bridgmohan / B. Cox
IC3-----#2 Twang / A. Stall Jr. / J. Rosario
IC4-----#9 Jessica's Star / M. Stidham / J. Graham

Race 6-----29th Running of THE CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE G2-----1 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#9 Centre Court / G. Arnold II / J. Leparoux
IC2-----#1 Tapicat / W. Mott / J. Rosario
IC3-----#3 Miz Ida / S. Margolis / S. Bridgmohan
IC4-----#8 Effie Trinket / R. Violette Jr. / L. Saez

Race 7-----(Fillies & Mares) 28th Running of THE HUMANA DISTAFF G1-----7 Furlongs

IC1-----#3 Judy the Beauty / W. Ward / J. Velazquez
IC2-----#8 Midnight Lucky / B. Baffert / R. Napravnik
IC3-----#6 Iotapa / J. Sadler / V. Espinoza
IC4-----#5 Scherzinger / J. Hollendorfer / M. Smith

Race 8-----23rd Running of THE AMERICAN TURF G2-----1 1/16 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#2 Chief Barker (Ire) / L. Rivelli / J. Graham
IC2-----#10 Picozza / T. Pletcher / J. Velasquez
IC3-----#8 Storming Inti / C. Brown / J. Castellano
IC4-----#5 Global View / T. Proctor / G. Stevens

Race 9-----80th Running of THE CHURCHILL DOWNS G2-----7 Furlongs

IC1-----#10 Delaunay / T. Amoss / R. Napravnik
IC2-----#4 Sahara Sky / J. Hollendorfer / J. Rosario
IC3-----#1 Capo Bastone / T. Pletcher / J. Velasquez
IC4-----#11 Shakin It Up / B. Baffert / M. Smith

Race 10-----28th Running of THE WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC G1-----1 1/8 Mile (Turf)

IC1-----#1 Wise Dan / C. Lopresti / J. Velasquez
IC2-----#10 Seek Again / W. Mott / J. Rosario
IC3-----#4 Admiral Kitten / M. Maker / J. Leparoux
IC4-----#7 Boisterous / T. Pletcher / J. Castellano

Race 11-----140th Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY G1-----1 1/4 Mile

IC1-----#5 California Chrome / A. Sherman / V. Espinoza
IC2-----#8 General A Rod / M. Maker / J. Rosario
IC3-----#13 Chitu / B. Baffert / M. Garcia
IC4-----#20 Wicked Strong / J. Jerkens / R. Maragh
IC5-----#4 Danza / T. Pletcher / J. Bravo

Other notable Long Shots :

#10 Wildcat Red
#11 Dance With Fate
#14 Medal Count
#15 Tapiture
#16 Intense Holiday
#17 Candy Boy

Race 12-----OC 62k/N2X-----6 Furlongs

IC1-----#9 Captain Genius / B. Cox / L. Goncalves
IC2-----#7 Bull Dozer / B. Calhoun / R. Napravnik
IC3-----#3 Slan Abhaile / D. Romans / J. Rosario
IC4-----#4 Vanity Feature / T. Drury Jr. / B. Hernandez Jr.

Race 13-----Md Sp Wt 60k-----1 1/16 Mile

IC1-----#1 Party Time / B. Baffert / M. Smith
IC2-----#8 Rocket Time / A. Stall Jr. / J. Rosario
IC3-----#6 Silent Ruler / Keith Desormeaux / Kent Desormeaux
IC4-----#10 H Town Brown / W. Ward / J. Velasquez

INVESTMENTS

Kentucky Derby plays :

EXACTA :
Play California Chrome to win with all other horses in the 2nd spot
Play all horses in the race to win, with California Chrome in the 2nd spot

TRIFECTA BILLY SPECIAL

Play California Chrome to win with all other horses to place 2nd and 3rd
Play California Chrome to place 2nd with all other horses to win and place 3rd

Play California Chrome to win with #'s 4,6,8,10,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 to place 2nd and 3rd
Play California Chrome to place 2nd with #'s 4,6,8,10,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 to win and place 3rd
Play California Chrome to place 3rd with #'s 4,6,8,10,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 to win and place 2nd

2014 Kentucky Derby : Past & Present Performances : Will the "Underdog" Win the Derby as the "Favorite?"

2014-05-02T06:56:00.002-07:00

California Chrome winning the SA Derby by 5 1/4 lengths (Photo by HOEP)

The moment of anticipation that many of us wait for each spring has finally arrived. The 140th running of the Kentucky Derby is tomorrow. It's a time to study, focus, learn and remember. In horse racing terms it's time to delve into the "Past Performances."
When this grizzled handicapper looks at the past performances, I actually look at the Derby winners from the past first to look for commonalities and traits that tomorrows Kentucky Derby runners may possess. I will never forget how I felt "knowing" that Barbaro was going to win when he ran in the Derby. A few weeks ago I mentioned how I felt when I "knew" that Animal Kingdom was destined to win the Derby. It was the same with Big Brown in the Derby even though no horse had won from the #20 post in the races history. I, like many other handicappers "knew" these horses would win. I am not by any means bragging about my handicapping prowess. I can give you many examples of "knowing" I was right, then being humbled and proven that I was wrong. Sometimes we can lose focus and let our hearts get in the way of a sound decision, which is highly detrimental to the success of one who studies these amazing animals. I've been a speed handicapper through and through for decades, but often times have to let my "feel" for "knowing" the shape of a race, the human connections, and mostly the heart of the champion caliber horses who want to run as fast as they can for us, be my guide when making a selection.

The big question surrounding tomorrows big race is can the "underdog" win as the favorite. You may be asking how can the solid Derby favorite be the underdog?" The story behind this amazing run for the roses by California Chrome, his owners, Perry Martin and Steve Coburn of DAP Racing, and of course his 77 year old trainer Art Sherman, who is making a bid to eclipse the great Charlie Whittingham's record as the Derby's oldest trainer, is extremely compelling. The owners bought a mare who won one race and was "unwanted" for a mere $8,000. Then they paid a "whopping" $2,500 to breed her with Lucky Pulpit. Millions and millions of dollars are spent by people with very deep pockets each year to breed, develop, train and then race on the highest level in the world. The fact that Perry and Steve, obviously a couple of great guys with a passion for thoroughbreds, are on the verge of winning the most prestigious race in the country on Saturday absolutely makes this handicapper smile.

I have another angle to contend with regarding Art Sherman, who as an 18 year old kid, traveled to the Kentucky Derby by rail with the legendary Swaps who went to the 1955 Derby and shocked the world by beating the heavy east coast favorite Nashua. Ironically, I found Nashua in California Chromes pedigree on his dams side. I have "known" for decades that Art Sherman is a tremendous horse trainer. His winning percentage in California is outstanding, and he is an excellent horseman. Art has stated that he would never come to the Derby, unless he thought he had a horse who could contend. He does this year. Here they are. It only took Art 59 years to get back. How can one not root for this team to succeed?

We are about to find out whether or not this team of "underdogs" can go back east and beat the country's best 3 year old colts, as the "favorite." It kind of "feels" like a "past performance" to me. It's "Deja vu all over again," as Yogi Berra once said. Can California Chrome become the first Cal-bred to win the Kentucky Derby since 1962? Of course he can. He doesn't know about any of us pundits, nor does he care. He just loves to run. He loves to run very, very fast. I "know" he has won his last four races by over 24 1/4 lengths combined. I "know" that he ran the 4th fastest Santa Anita Derby time in history under a hand ride, geared down in the final 1/16th of a mile with absolutely no urging in the stretch. "I "know" that he is undefeated with Victor Espinoza aboard. When they step onto the track Saturday be sure and watch his demeanor, his presence, his attitude, and just get to "know" him. If he looks like a champion, we will "know" that we've stayed focused, we will "know" that we've stayed positive, and we will "know" to meet one another in the winners circle after the "underdog" favorite wins the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Intelligent Choice selection for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby

IC1-----California Chrome----Art Sherman-----Victor Espinoza

The last piece of the puzzle is putting winning tickets together. We will post the IC selections for the entire card later tonight, or very early Saturday morning. We'll also present some betting, and ticket construction strategies, so be sure and check back later. Trifecta Billy wishes you all the luck in the world!

2014 Kentucky Derby: Posts & Pace

2014-05-01T07:44:00.001-07:00

So the post position draw is complete and just like so many previous Derby's, there are winners and losers after the draw. But before we get to the draw, there is a very important scratch to talk about. Hoppertunity, the second favorite in the race was scratched early Thursday morning. Trainer Bob Baffert stated that the horse had an issue with his left foot. It's bad news for the Baffert camp, but excellent news for the others left in the field. Let's take a look at the posts starting with the favorite California Chrome, who landed in the #5 post. Trainer Art Sherman must be thrilled with that spot. The #5 post has won the race 3 times since 1997, including the 2002 winner War Emblem, who was ridden by one Victor Espinoza, who just happens to have the mount in the #5 post again with California Chrome. The #16 post is the only other one to have multiple winners this century.

On the flip side of the coin, the #1 post was chosen with the very first pill for the aptly named "Vicar's in Trouble." Though the #1 post has had some success in past Derby's, it hasn't happened lately. The last winner to start from the #1 post was Ferdinand in 1986 for the legendary jockey Bill Shoemaker and one of the greatest trainers of all time, Charlie Whittingham. If you ask any of the trainers today which post they did not want, the #1 post would be the unanimous answer. Another runner who probably would have preferred to be in a different spot would be Wicked Strong, who landed in the extreme outside with the #20 post. Due to his lack of speed, and having to navigate around the 19 horses to his left to get to the rail as quickly as he can, this corner feels his chances to cross the line first have been lessened. In fact, his morning line was raised to 8-1 by morning line maker Mike Battaglia, but will be revised again with the scratch of Hoppertunity. Also, another closer, Ride On Curlin, with Calvin Borel up, has the same navigation issues as he will start from the #19 post. This will make it more difficult to get to that rail that Calvin loves so much. Let's take a look at the field. I'll add the style that each horse tends to have the most success, then provide pace projections.

Vicar's in Trouble-----Speed-----Troublesome post, needs the lead, but may not get it
Harry's Holiday-----Stalker-----Another buried on the rail, will try and lay close
Uncle Sigh-----Stalker-----Tries hard, but may not be quick enough to gain good position
Danza-----Stalker-----With Chrome & Samraat to his outside, he'll need to stay clear
California Chrome-----Speed-----Projects to be 2nd-4th early, 1st-2nd turning for home
Samraat-----Stalker-----Will lean on the horse to his left to stay in contention
Wee Miss Artie-----Mid-Pack-----Probably in the third group, not a great set up here
General A Rod-----Speed-----Good spot for Rosario to try and dictate the pace.
Vinceremos----Mid-Pack-----Again, not fast enough for 2nd group, tough to get there for this one
Wildcat Red-----Speed-----Will fight for top spot early with the #5, #8, #13...never gives up
~~Hoppertunity-----Closer-----Mr. Smith knows how to close here, will be flying late~~
Dance With Fate-----Closer-----Nakatani to save ground as quickly as he can, will be flying late
Chitu-----Speed-----As fast as possible early, may not be quick enough to get the lead
Medal Count-----Mid-Pack-----Will rate, then navigate through the turn for the stretch drive
Tapiture-----Stalker-----Will try and get into the 2nd group from here, then follow Chrome home
Intense Holiday-----Closer-----Will take to the inside to save ground, and make his big run
Commanding Curve-----Closer-----Could be trouble out here for deep closers....see #16 & #20
Candy Boy-----Mid-Pack-----Stevens will have to be near perfect, will be flying late
Ride On Curlin-----Mid-Pack-----Borel knows the way, but way out here could be tough
Wicked Strong-----Closer-----Lugging out like he did in the Wood, could spell doom from here

It seems likely that trainer Wesley Ward, will send out Pablo Del Monte to run for the roses on Saturday, which will keep the super sized field at 20. There is never a dull moment when handicapping a race of this magnitude, and today's scratch is yet another example. I'll be back soon to go over the past performances and projections for the 140th running of the big race. In addition, I will have the Intelligent Choice selections on the site sometime Friday. Until then, stay focused, stay positive, and I'll see you at the finish line!

2014 Kentucky Derby : Sires and Bloodlines

2014-04-29T03:42:00.000-07:00

The storms have subsided for the time being, the last travelers have arrived, and we are now less than 48 hours from the post position draw for the 2014 Kentucky Derby.
The favorite, California Chrome, who arrived around noon Monday, was looking dapper, fit and ready. He has a very calm demeanor, and this confident, positive vibe that seems to be part of his character. Art Sherman has the colt ready and he, like his horse is laid back, and confident. In just 4 short days, California Chrome will get to display that confidence for all to see.

I remember when I looked at his past performances prior to his win in the G2 San Felipe in March at Santa Anita earlier this year, which was his first stakes win against open company. I was slightly skeptical. My handicapping pal, Capp'n Q, on the other hand absolutely loved the Lucky Pulpit colt. In fact, he told me that he thought we were looking at another Best Pal. After he made a mockery of the field, I began to delve further into his family tree, as I wanted a clearer picture. You see, Lucky Pulpit, is just now gaining traction in California as a sire, and I had noted that it cost a mere $2,000 to breed this horse. His best horse to date until now has been Rousing Sermon, a late running closer who never seemed to win the big prize, although he did run 8th in the Kentucky Derby. I liked what I saw when I checked out the information.

California Chrome ---Pulpit--A.P. Indy--Cozzene--Seattle Slew--Mr. Prospector--Caro--Secretariat
Northern Dancer--Danzig--Buckpasser--Vaguely Noble--Honest Pleasure
Native Dancer--Nashua--Sir Ivor

It really is quite a family. His pedigree is loaded with superstars. Plain and simple. Check out the other 2014 Kentucky Derby pedigrees below. This list contains the updates after the latest scratches, with horse, sire, rating of bloodlines, and distance and surface capable or questionable.

California Chrome---Lucky Pulpit---Above Average---Distance capable
Vicar's In Trouble---Into Mischief---Average---Distance ???????
Dance With Fate---Two Step Salsa---Above Average---Distance capable, Surface ???????
Wicked Strong---Hard Spun---Above Average---Distance capable
Samraat---Noble Causeway---Average---Distance ???????
Danza---Street Boss---Average---Distance ???????
Hoppertunity---Any Given Saturday---Above Average---Distance capable
Intense Holiday---Harlan's Holiday---Above Average---Distance capable
Wildcat Red---D'Wildcat---Average---Distance ???????
We Miss Artie---Artie Schiller---Average---Distance ???????, Surface ???????
Ride On Curlin---Curlin---Above Average---Distance capable
Chitu---Henny Hughes---Average---Distance ???????
Tapiture---Tapit---Above Average---Distance capable
General A Rod---Roman Ruler---Average---Distance ???????
Medal Count---Dynaformer---Above Average---Distance capable
Candy Boy---Candy Ride*Arg---Average---Distance ???????, Surface ???????
Uncle Sigh---Indian Charlie---Average---Distance ???????
Vinceremos---Pioneerof the Nile---Average---Distance capable
Harry's Holiday---Harlan's Holiday---Above Average---Distance capable
Commanding Curve---Master Command---Average---Distance ???????

That wraps up part 3 of handicapping the Kentucky Derby....I'll be back after the post position draw with more updates.

Wilshire Stakes (Gr. III) - Sunday, April 27

2014-04-28T02:02:00.001-07:00

Jerry Hollendorfer and Raphael Bejarano team up for a convincing win Sunday with new acquisition, Parranda, in the G3 Wilshire Stakes.

Last Tycoon Stakes (Gr. III) - Friday, April 25

2014-04-26T05:03:00.001-07:00

It's smokin' Joe Talamo on the turf for Ron McAnally in the first graded stakes race, of the first ever spring meet at Santa Anita on Friday, as Quick Casablanca wins in a photo finish.

2014 Kentucky Derby: A Closer Look....10 days to go

2014-04-24T07:17:00.004-07:00

The 2014 Kentucky Derby is almost here. There are 10 days to go until we find out who will conquer the large field in the run for the roses. Last week I touched on the "feel" side of handicapping when I spoke of looking for a horse with an "attitude." When I see a horse that looks like a champion and walks like a champion, more often then not, they have the heart of a champion and they race like a champion. However, we all know that there's far more to selecting the winner than just looking at a horse on the track.

They have to have excellent handling by both the jockey and the trainer. There is an old saying in sales that 80% of a companies sales come from the top 20% of the sales staff. How does this relate to horse racing you might ask? Through all of my years spent poring over the numbers in the daily racing form, I have found a similar correlation, especially with trainers.And though I realize the exact percentages may not be quite like the sales of large companies, the top trainers do win a majority of the big stakes races. But I am getting ahead of myself. First let's take a look at the probable field of 20, barring any further late scratches. You will note the listing of the horse followed by the trainer, jockey, sire, and prep race result.

California Chrome---Art Sherman---Victor Espinoza---Lucky Pulpit---1st Santa Anita Derby
Vicar's In Trouble---Michael Maker---Rosie Napravnik---Into Mischief---1st Louisiana Derby
Dance With Fate---Peter Eurton---Corey Nakatani---Two Step Salsa---1st Blue Grass Stakes
Wicked Strong---Jimmy Jerkens---Rajiv Maragh---Hard Spun---1st Wood Memorial
Samraat---Richard Violette Jr.---Jose Ortiz---Noble Causeway---2nd Wood Memorial
Danza---Todd Pletcher---Joe Bravo---Street Boss---1st Arkansas Derby
Hoppertunity---Bob Baffert---Mike Smith---Any Given Saturday---2nd Santa Anita Derby
Intense Holiday---Todd Pletcher---John Velasquez---Harlan's Holiday---2nd Louisiana Derby
Wildcat Red---Jose Garoffalo---Luis Saez---D'Wildcat---2nd Florida Derby
We Miss Artie---Todd Pletcher---Javier Castellano---Artie Schiller---1st Spiral Stakes
Ride On Curlin---William Gowan---Calvin Borel---Curlin---2nd Arkansas Derby
Chitu---Bob Baffert---Martin Garcia---Henny Hughes---1st Sunland Derby
Tapiture---Steve Asmussen---Ricardo Santana Jr.---Tapit---4th Arkansas Derby
~~Ring Weekend---Graham Motion---Alan Garcia---Tapit---1st Tampa Bay Derby~~
General A Rod---Michael Maker---Joel Rosario---Roman Ruler---3rd Florida Derby
Medal Count---Dale Romans---Robby Albarado---Dynaformer---2nd Blue Grass Stakes
Candy Boy---John Sadler---Gary Stevens---Candy Ride*Arg---3rd Santa Anita Derby
Uncle Sigh---Gary Contessa---Irad Ortiz Jr.---Indian Charlie---2nd Gotham Stakes
Vinceremos---Todd Pletcher---TBA---Pioneerof the Nile---2nd Tampa Bay Derby
Harry's Holiday---Michael Maker---TBA---Harlan's Holiday---2nd Spiral Stake

This is the tentative field with 10 days to go and one thing to note about the list is that only 3 trainers with horses entered have ever won the Kentucky Derby. They are Bob Baffert, who has won the race 3 times, Todd Pletcher who has 1 victory in this race, and Graham Motion who also has 1 win. Only 6 jockey's on the list have won the race and they are as follows. Gary Stevens and Calvin Borel have 3 wins each. Joel Rosario, Victor Espinoza, John Velasquez, and Mike Smith have each won the Derby once. One also sees when looking at the chart that Mr. Baffert and Mr. Pletcher train 6 of the 20 entrants or 30% of the field. Do these statistics mean that the winner of the race must come from one of these trainers or jockeys? Absolutely not, but if one of these trainers or jockeys wins the race we should not be surprised.

In my next post we'll go over the bloodlines of the horses to see who's family tree looks best. This is the first time any of these runners will go the 1 1/4 mile distance, so it is extremely important to evaluate this crucial information to help us narrow down the field. Stay tuned, stay focused, stay positive, and I'll see you at the finish line.