The Business of Technology

Why don't TV manufacturers offer cheaper TVs by removing the tuner?

2013-08-14T19:32:00.000-07:00

With all of the functionality of choosing a video stream to play on TV existing in various boxes - cable box, satellite box, Apple TV, BlueRay player, XBox, etc. why are we not seeing more TV models that don't have tuners? Almost 70% of US population lives in urban areas where it is very uncommon for people to tune into over the air broadcasts. The few people who used to gave up after the introduction of digital and shutting down of the analog signal a couple of years back.

Of course there are computer monitors available without TV tuners. But for some reason the price point on monitors is much higher than TVs. A 26" computer monitor will cost you $600-$800 while for the same price you could get a 46" TV.

I'm hopeful that with widespread adoption of OTT players like Apple TV, Roku and now Google Chromecast, the TV makers will have a Eureka moment soon and realize that the digital tuner in the TV monitor is largely vestigial - sure there are some humans that can still wiggle their ears but we agree that the muscles that move the ears are vestigial in humans!

McKinsey: The $33 Trillion Technology Payoff

2013-05-29T09:35:00.000-07:00

McKinsey, in its latest report, has released a list of disruptive technologies with most economic impact. Mobile Internet is at the top with potential to deliver $11 trillion in economic impact annually by 2025! The one that is missing is Big Data - but not because it doesn't have potential; instead McKinsey treats it as the foundational technology underlying many of the major ones listed here - like Internet of Things, Automation of Knowledge Work, Genomics, etc.

"By 2025, the 12 technologies — led by the mobile Internet, the automation of knowledge work, and the Internet of Things — have the potential to deliver economic value of up to $33 trillion a year worldwide, according to the McKinsey researchers."

The Automation of Knowledge Work is both an opportunity and challenge for the economy - on one hand we will play a significant technological role in developing and implementing technologies that would automate many of the business and knowledge processes, but on the other it would reduce the need for massive number of knowledge workers thus putting further pressure on the employment numbers. Any thoughts on how you see this playing out?

Beyond Samsung Galaxy S4 - the battle of the OS's - iOS vs. Android

2013-03-14T18:00:00.000-07:00

While all eyes were on the Samsung Galaxy S4 launch this evening, I found some interesting metrics that blew my mind. Apple iOS vs. Google Android - you really need to read between the lines to see what's happening: Just 1% of Android growth is in USA while 20% of iOS growth is here.

"...US is one of the few (but largest) market where the iPhone is available as a “low end” offering. At a minimum price of $0 (with a contract) many consumers are finding the iPhone attractive relative to a $0 (with a contract) Android phone. This price parity (illusory as it may be) allows iPhone to grow even faster than Android in this particular market.
One wonders what would happen if such price parity were present globally."

This last comment is particularly true for India - one of the largest, relatively virgin market for smartphones (less than 10% of mobile phones sold last year were smartphones). While unlocked, un-subsidized Samsung Galaxy S3 sells for about 30,000 Indian Rupees (equivalent of $550), the iPhone 5 sells for about 45,000. In US, unlocked version of both phones cost about the same - about $650 for unlocked, and $200 with 2-year contracts.

Seems like both eco systems have found their perfect niches and struck a balance - iOS the most desirable if price was not a factor, and Android more value for money. It will be interesting to see who rocks this apple cart - Samsung with its high-end S4 in USA, or Apple with its rumored low-end iPhone for emerging markets.

Click on the link below for more data of Android vs. iOS activations.

http://www.asymco.com/2013/03/11/where-are-the-android-users/

State of the Technology: Smart Energy or Connected Home or Home Automation

2013-03-08T15:28:00.001-08:00

Smart Energy has been a pet interest of mine for a few years now. Back then the technology seemed to be moving at a glacial pace. Then industry alliances and standards began to emerge, energy costs kept on increasing, smart metering got deployed widely, features of energy management started getting incorporated into everyday products - home security, smart thermostats, etc. Now we have the "Internet of Things" and smart energy / connected appliances seems to be getting subsumed under that larger umbrella.

Zigbee alliance has been doing some good work for the last 10 years bringing a lot of appliance, technology and software vendors together, publishing standards.

But despite Zigbee, the market was slow to move. I believe the ingredient that was missing was competition. Well, now we have that - in form of WICED - Broadcom's Wireless Internet Connectivity for Embedded Devices (WICED) platform. Also, other Wi-Fi players like Qualcomm Atheros are also competing with HomePlug and other technologies.

I think the market is ripe for connected appliances and Smart Energy now. Already, products like Nest are becoming household names (well, at least in Silicon Valley :))

All that remains now is a little push by the Utilities to promote Time of Use (TOU) billing across a larger percentage of its customers, and people will start looking up all the smart energy savings with renewed interest.

A look at the Communications Service Providers priorities from MWC13

2013-03-03T13:39:00.001-08:00

LTE-Advanced is on everyone's mind with its promised improvement in speed, offload, voice over LTE, etc. However, this Light Reading survey of CSP's at MWC13 does not hold out much hope for seeing a lot of deployment in 2013 - but it's coming nevertheless.

On the other hand backhaul reliability continues to be a problem - or an opportunity - depending on how you look at it

Read the full survey results here with additional interesting insights on Gigabit Wifi, VoLTE, etc:
http://www.lightreading.com/mobile-world-congress-service-provider-survey-results/240149693?f_src=lightreading

Continuing my thoughts on a flood of Smartphone OS's at MWC13

2013-02-26T14:20:00.002-08:00

In my earlier posts over the last couple of days, I completely ignored Tizen. I still don't know what to make of it. The love child of Samsung and Intel, it seems very promising. However, considering that Samsung accounts for 40% of all Android smartphones, what would they gain by introducing Tizen. They are both open source - though Tizen has components from Samsung that are not quite open source.

To me it seems like Samsung's insurance policy against Google, just like Google is working closely with other handset manufacturers to reduce its dependence on Samsung.

As for Intel, this is an interesting move. You would think that this is Intel's strategy of finally getting a foothold in the Smartphone and Tablet market.

"Intel is trying to catch up to Qualcomm both in terms of the baseband market and applications processors. According to Strategy Analytics' latest report on the market, Qualcomm, MediaTek, Intel, Broadcom and ST-Ericsson grabbed the top five spots in the market in terms of revenue share, in that order. The research firm said Qualcomm led the cellular baseband market with 52 percent revenue share in 2012, followed by MediaTek with 12.5 percent and Intel with 12.3 percent."

Read more: Intel sees Tizen as mobile growth opportunity - FierceWireless http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/intel-sees-tizen-mobile-growth-opportunity/2013-02-25#ixzz2M2vdgPfd

But why build an OS? Neither Nvidia, nor Qualcomm or a bunch of other ARM chip makers whose processors power a majority of Smartphones and Tablets today built their own operating system. Besides, Tizen will work on all chip platforms, so how does Intel gain from it exclusively?

With Google under threat from Samsung, maybe it should strengthen its partnership with Apple!

2013-02-25T18:14:00.002-08:00

Samsung now has over 40% of the worldwide Android smartphone market. This over-dependence on Samsung is becoming a threat for Google who expects to drive over $8b in revenue from its Mobile business this year. Samsung gets close to 10% of the revenues Google generates from search advertising on its various properties when Samsung customers access these properties on Samsung's smartphones. With the dominant market share Samsung now has, it could start demanding a larger cut of this pie from Google.

Google's response, some observers like the author of this WSJ piece Amir Efrati think, is to leverage its investment in Motorola Mobility and other Android device makers like Huawei, HTC, LG and others to dilute the market share held by Samsung. However, there is a possibility of another play here. Google makes its money from search advertising and advertising on its properties like Youtube, Google Maps and others - it makes no money on Android OS itself. And these applications are among the top applications on iOS too.

Given the recent animosity between Apple and Google, including statements like "I'll willing to go thermonuclear war over this" by Steve Jobs, a closer partnership between the two companies may sound outlandish. However, it wasn't so long ago that Eric Schmidt was on the board of Apple and iPhone's initial success against the then leader BlackBerry could be somewhat attributed to the seamless implementation of Google's web search, Youtube, GMail and Maps on iOS. And now that Steve Jobs has exited the scene, some of the vitriol may not be there anymore.

Anyway, call it a contrarian view if you may. But if Apple is the best hardware manufacturer out there, Google is the best discovery and content player. They can both prosper with collaboration.

The fight for Open Source Smartphone OS

2013-02-24T15:18:00.001-08:00

As Mobile World Congress 2013 gets underway in Barcelona, Spain, we are once again hit with a flood of press releases talking about the launch of new FirefoxOS or Ubuntu for Phones. While as a technology purist I love these developments, as a pragmatic person I don't quite see the business model.

If you draw parallels to the PC industry over the last 30 years, the OS field was dominated by Microsoft and Apple, with open source Linux playing the geek role. While I agree that the Smartphone penetration and volumes will far exceed the PC numbers, I still don't see the viability of so many OS's. Today, we have the Google Android and Apple iOS taking up almost 70% of the market share, with the older players like BlackBerry, Microsoft taking up a bulk of the balance 30%. Many other older players have fallen by the wayside - Palm and even Nokia amongst them (I mean Nokia's Symbian OS, their new play is entirely around Microsoft Windows 8).

Nevertheless, it's always fun to imagine a Utopian world - where standardized hardware and open source OS will rule. You will be able to pick any barebones smartphone from the shelves at Fry's Electronics and put your own ROM, and voila you'll have the Smartphone of your dreams!

IT Spending by NA Utilities will increase 4.5% over next 4 years - IDC Energy Insights

2011-12-06T13:52:00.001-08:00

IDC presented a mixed outlook for North American Utilities industry today. In a webinar titled "North America Utilities Industry - Top 10 Predictions 2012" IDC predicted that energy consumption in North America will remain stagnant - 0.2% growth rate in 2012 and might actually decrease 5-15% by 2020. In the disappointments column - there is the declining ARRA funding, peaking of Smart Meter deployment, more regulatory control - both from EPA and Nuclear. On the bright side though, investments in upgrading grid, security, demand response and distributed generation will continue unabated at least in the near future.
http://eon.businesswire.com/news/eon/20111201005377/en/smart-grid/smart-buildings/electric-vehicles

TV Everywhere adds a new element of cost for Cable companies

2011-11-16T16:08:00.001-08:00

http://goo.gl/T289N

"The MSOs on this morning's panel were in agreement that the monetary benefits of delivering cable services to new platforms is difficult to measure, but the expenses are becoming easier to calculate."

This is a very untenable situation for Cable companies - already hard pressed due to a decline in housing market and experiencing its first sustained net subscriber loss in a decade and a half.

The cost elements that TV Everywhere offering is introducing for Cable companies are:
1. Increased bandwidth requirements
2. Content rights
3. Customer Care organizations having to deal with a whole slew of new complaints from subscribers watching on iOS, Android and other devices.

While the first two are obvious and a lot of attention has been given to them, the customer care costs have not yet started figuring in the overall equation yet. The delivery of content outside the closed loop in the OTT (over the top) model is going to require retraining of technical support teams to deal with a much larger set of variables, most of which are outside a cable company's purview. Left unaddressed, it could create serious quality of service issues leading to poor customer satisfaction and leading to even more cable subscribers cutting the cord for online alternatives.

Wireless play is a tough act for Cable companies

2011-11-16T15:04:00.001-08:00

http://goo.gl/MvyA8

Cox announces it is going out of Wireless business. They tried several iterations - first buying up spectrum and coming out with their own service, then goingg with Sprint as an MVNO and recently even announcing that they may jump back in the fray on their own when it comes to 4G.

However, now they seem to be abandoning the wireless business entirely. It would be interesting to see how the other Cable companies react.

Is it International Labor Day or April Fools Day today - Google rents goats to mow lawns

2009-05-01T18:10:00.000-07:00

I swear I thought it was April Fools day for a moment - Google using goats to mow its lawns. But then, on second thought, isn't this how things are done in lots of places around the world. Looks like extreme hightech and low tech and coexist quite nicely.

6 Half-Truths About the Cloud

2009-04-11T21:19:00.000-07:00

6 Half-Truths About the Cloud:

Cloud Computing is generating a lot of buzz right now. Like all buzzwords, Cloud Computing too means different things to different folks. It's been applied to everything from SaaS to Utility Computing to Virtualization. While all these are components of features of Cloud Computing, none of these alone can be called Cloud Computing.

I'm sure in the coming few months, the concept will get fleshed out and more clear examples will emerge. Right now though Amazon's Web Services, Salesforce.com's Force.com, and a bunch of Google's and Yahoo's services seem to be the leading examples of Cloud Computing.

So what's the difference between iPhone and iPod Touch

2009-03-30T19:38:00.000-07:00

Skype is now available on both - so now you could buy an iPod Touch with a good wi-fi hotspot plan and use it as a phone.

Electric DeLorean back for the future

2009-03-14T13:34:00.000-07:00

asahi.com（朝日新聞社）：Electric DeLorean back for the future - English

Trust the Japanese to take a great idea and make it better. DeLorean - one of the most iconic cars of the 80s gets a new lease of life from university teachers and students in Hiroshima. There may be a commercial proposition here - how about an electric conversion kit to breathe life into all the old cars. Instead of junking old cars and recycling only a portion of metal, you could recycle 100%. Think of all the landfills, the energy used for recycling metal, the pollution and the terrible waste that could be avoided. This whole concept of having a new car every 3-5 years is so out of line with the current focus on environment - I wish someone would take up these real recycling ideas in right earnest.

Dr. Sugata Mitra at TED

2009-02-06T22:33:00.000-08:00

My ex-boss - Dr. Sugata Mitra is talking about his legendary "Hole in the Wall" experiment at TED 2009.

Speakers Sugata Mitra: Education researcher

Sugata Mitra's "Hole in the Wall" experiments have shown that, in the absence of supervision or formal teaching, children can teach themselves and each other, if they're motivated by curiosity and peer interest.

Why you should listen to him:

In 1999, Sugata Mitra and his colleagues dug a hole in a wall bordering an urban slum in New Delhi, installed an Internet-connected PC, and left it there (with a hidden camera filming the area). What they saw was kids from the slum playing around with the computer and in the process learning how to use it and how to go online, and then teaching each other.

In the following years they replicated the experiment in other parts of India, urban and rural, with similar results, challenging some of the key assumptions of formal education. The "Hole in the Wall" project demonstrates that, even in the absence of any direct input from a teacher, an environment that stimulates curiosity can cause learning through self-instruction and peer-shared knowledge. Mitra, who's now a professor of educational technology at Newcastle University (UK), calls it "minimally invasive education."

"Education-as-usual assumes that kids are empty vessels who need to be sat down in a room and filled with curricular content. Dr. Mitra's experiments prove that wrong."

Linux Journal

Electronic Health Records and your privacy

2009-01-31T20:58:00.001-08:00

Electronic Health Records has been a hot topic ever since Obama's inauguration and the inclusion of $20b for EHR in the proposed stimulus bill. However, the patient privacy is issue is far from settled as yet and for the EHR to gain widespread adoption and result in the kind of healthcare cost savings that are being promised, it is imperative that the privacy issue is addressed at the earliest. I think the three key determinants here are:

1. A government willing to regulate and effectively enforce privacy laws
2. Heavy deterrent action against a few major privacy offenders

3. Putting in technology to address privacy

EHR does promise to be the largest IT initiative on the horizon and like many in the IT industry, I am rooting for it. But it's not only for selfish business reasons. As a healthcare consumer, I see the ridiculousness of the current system - doctors requesting other doctors for patient's records over the phone, records being sent out by fax (not the best way of ensuring privacy), no way of making sure you have the most recent records. We've lost a decade on this issue - EHR would have been big in the early part of this decade had it not been for the diversions that most of us regret now.

Your E-Health Records

As part of the stimulus package, $20 billion will be pumped into the health care system to accelerate the use of electronic health records. The goal is both to improve the quality and lower the costs of care by replacing cumbersome paper records with electronic records that can be easily stored and swiftly transmitted.
The idea is sound, but it also raises important questions about how to ensure the privacy of patients. Fortunately, the legislation would impose sensible privacy protections despite attempts by business lobbyists to weaken the safeguards.
With paper records the opportunities for breaches are limited to over-the-shoulder glimpses or the occasional lost or stolen files. But when records are kept and transferred electronically, the potential for abuse can become as vast as the Internet.
Electronic health records that can be linked to individual patients are already protected by laws that apply primarily to hospitals, doctors, nursing homes, pharmacists, laboratories and insurance plans. The stimulus bill that has passed in the House, and a similar bill awaiting approval in the Senate, would strengthen the privacy requirements and apply them more directly to “business associates” of the providers, like billing and collection services or pharmacy benefit managers, that have access to sensitive data but are not readily held accountable for any misuse.
The potential for harm was spelled out by the American Civil Liberties Union in a recent letter to Congress. Employers who obtain medical records inappropriately might reject a job candidate who looks expensive to insure. Drug companies with access to pharmaceutical records might try to pressure patients to switch to their products. Data brokers might buy medical and pharmaceutical records and sell them to marketers. Unscrupulous employees with access to electronic records might snoop on the health of their colleagues or neighbors.
The bills pending in Congress would go a long way toward preventing such abuses. They would outlaw the sale of any personal health information without the patient’s permission, mandate audit trails to help detect inappropriate access, and require that patients be notified whenever their records are lost or used for an unauthorized purpose. They would also beef up the penalties for noncompliance and allow state attorneys general to help enforce the rules — a useful backup in case the federal government falls down on the job. The House version would also encourage the use of protective technologies, like encryption, to protect personal medical information that will be transmitted.
Health insurance plans and some disease management groups are complaining that the new requirements would impose administrative burdens that could actually impede the use of electronic records and interfere with coordination of care. They want to ease the marketing restrictions, notify patients only if security breaches are harmful, and keep the attorneys general out of the enforcement role.
It should be possible through implementing regulations to fine-tune the privacy requirements so that they do not disrupt patient care. Congress must make every effort to ensure that patients’ privacy is protected.

New stimulus bill contains complete health IT act

2009-01-24T18:03:00.000-08:00

The latest in HITECH is not what you think it is - it is the Health IT for Economic and Clinical Health Act. The act is part of the economic stimulus bill expected to be signed into law this February. It provides for a whopping $20 billion in health information technology spending - I realize a billion isn't what it used to be given all the numbers floating around in the current economic mess, but it still is more than pocket change :-)

The cornerstone of this Act is the emphasis on widespread use of Electronic Health Records (EHR) by doctors, hospitals, and payers. And for once it seems like even the privacy advocates like ACLU and others are lending support.

Read more here.

Technorati Tags: Electronic Health Records, EHR, EMR, HITECH, Health Information Technology

Solar Panels on White House

2009-01-21T19:22:00.000-08:00

Wow! That was quick - less than one day since Obama's been in the White House and there are solar panels on the roof of the West Wing already!

Well, actually this picture is almost 30 years old - Jimmy Carter installed these back in 1979 - only to have these taken down by Ronald Reagan in 1986 (click here). Makes you wonder - what if? What if we had persisted with Energy Independence as the top priority? What alternate energy sources would we be using today? Would there be much lesser pollution, lower cancer rates and decrease in other diseases, fewer wars fought over oil, .....

What if? That's such a potent thought.

Coffee Beans As The Next Great Auto Fuel?

2009-01-10T11:16:00.001-08:00

Not only will the fuel be cheap, but the exhaust will also produce the wonderful aroma of coffee.

Scientists at the University of Nevada, Reno, researching the prospect of extracting oil from used coffee grounds report that the process is not that difficult. The cheap and environmentally friendly biofuel is abundant enough to potentially manufacture several hundred million gallons a year to power cars and trucks.
The idea was formed by accident says the chief researcher. “I had left my coffee out one night, and the next morning, I noticed that there was a kind of oil around the edge of the cup,” Mano Misra, a professor of engineering said. “Every cup of coffee has it. I decided to do some tests on the oil.”
The analysis proved that the grounds contained roughly 10 to 15 percent oil by weight. The researchers then extracted the oil with standard chemistry techniques and converted it to biodiesel.
For the study, the team collected leftover grounds of espressos, cappuccinos and other coffee preparations from the Starbucks coffee chain.
Being that the process is not particularly energy intensive, the researchers estimated that biodiesel could be produced for about a dollar a gallon.
According to the Department of Agriculture, the world’s coffee production is more than 7.2 million tons per year.
The study was first reported toward the end of last year in The Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry.

Fill 'er up with an unleaded cappuccino?

The resulting coffee-based fuel –which smells like java– is more stable than traditional biodiesel due to coffee’s high antioxidant content, according to the researchers.
“We have found that biodiesel created from spent coffee grounds is stable over a longer period of time than other forms of biodiesel that have been created from feed stocks such as soy and corn,” Misra said. “Biodiesel from spent coffee grounds is a low-cost ‘green’ form of fuel that shows a significant reduction of carbon dioxide emission. It’s an excellent source for biodiesel.”
One hurdle, Dr. Misra said, is in the organized collection of the spent beans. Therefore, the researchers plan on setting up a pilot operation this year using waste from a local bulk roaster.
It won’t be a complete fix for reducing America’s dependence on oil, but it can be a help while at the same time providing a nice aroma for those in the vicinity. The researchers report that the exhaust actually smells like coffee.
“It won’t solve the world’s energy problem,” Dr. Misra said of his work. “But our objective is to take waste material and convert it to fuel.”

Stimulate Manufacturing, Not Consumption

2009-01-04T12:49:00.001-08:00

I love this quote from Joel Kotkin's article, "we have deluded ourselves into believing that a small number of "creative" alchemists--software engineers, hedge fund managers, urban developers--could transform code, cash and condos into limitless pots of gold. The huge winnings of these few would then allow the rest of us to spend like teenagers on a borrowed credit card, consuming everything made by the hard-working fools abroad."

Read on...
http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/29/manufacturing-productivity-stimulus-oped-cx_jk_1230kotkin_print.html

New Geographer
Stimulate Manufacturing, Not Consumption
Joel Kotkin 12.30.08, 12:01 AM ET

As store earnings plunged last week, the National Retail Federation proposed that the country create the mother of all sales by suspending taxes on all purchases. These tax holidays would occur in March, July and October and be national in scope.

The bill, they suggested, should be picked up by--who else?--the federal taxpayer, who would make up for the lost local revenues even for the five states without sales taxes. The rationale, suggests the Federation's chairman, J.C. Penney Chief Executive Myron Ullman III, in a letter to President-elect Barack Obama, would be "to help stimulate consumer spending as one of the first priorities of your new administration."

Now I can understand the manager at the local Target, Macy's or Nordstrom feeling a bit neglected as money pours out to prop up financial institutions and the Big Three. This proposed subsidy for mallrats, however, makes the previous somewhat-dubious bailouts look like good policy.

In fact, if there is one thing Americans do not need, it is yet another incentive to spend money they do not have. This has become a fixture of stimulus-think under the Bernanke-Bush regime. Remember the tax rebates earlier in the year? That was a big help, wasn't it?

Sadly, this "shop 'til you go bankrupt" strategy is being adopted by the new kingpins in Washington as well. Already you can hear Barney Frank, chair of the House Financial Services Committee, talking about a big stimulus to "prop up consumption."

This quick-fix approach has become a new genus of bipartisan madness. Like "the best minds of my generation ... looking for an angry fix"--to recall Allen Ginsberg's Howl--politicians and policymakers seem to feel we need some quick high to restore our battered economy.

Like a bad drug habit, reckless stimulation may make us feel better in the short term, but it could leave us shaky later on. To be effective over time, a stimulus plan must first address some fundamental challenges that have haunted the American economy for a generation.

Of course, there are countries that should be spending more. Places like China, Germany and Japan have gotten fat off our consumption. Now their beggar-thy-neighbor policies are backfiring as shopaholic nations, most notably the U.S., rein in their spending.

In contrast, our economy's failing stems from not producing nearly enough in goods and services to pay our bills. Our long-term weakness stems not from a shortage of consumer credit--the main obsession of Wall Street and both parties--but from the decline in manufacturing, growing dependence on imported fuel and deteriorating basic infrastructure.

Our consumption patterns--coupled with disdain for production--explain how our deficit in goods-related trade alone has soared over the past two decades from roughly $100 billion annually to over $800 billion. In the process, we have created an enormous shift in currency reserves to countries like China, Russia, India, Korea, Brazil and Taiwan. They produce and save too much; we consume and borrow too much.

Reversing this dangerous disequilibrium does not necessitate the end for American-style capitalism--as suggested recently by France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy--but instead a paradigm shift within it.

First, we need to swear off our addiction to hype-driven bubbles, seen first in technology and more recently in real estate. The fact that the government may be about to start yet another--this one colored "green"--suggests bad habits are hard to break.

Of course, bubbles certainly benefit some individuals and companies, most notably the financial sectors, who can best take advantage of wild speculative swings. The financial sector's share of profits more than doubled as a percentage of national income since the 1980s.

However, this pattern has not worked so well for most Americans, who have seen their wages stagnate or even fall. Most of us would benefit far more from robust growth that stems from productive industries like energy, fiber, food, logistics and manufacturing. Parts of the industrial Midwest, Texas and the Southeast have enjoyed expansions in these fields--until the onset of the recession, at least.

More important, productive economic growth creates demography far more egalitarian than the Namibia-like bifurcation that characterizes bubble centers like Manhattan and San Francisco. In fact, notes University of Washington demographer Richard Morrill, areas with greater concentration of these kinds of industries tend to suffer less inequality and offer better prospects for the average middle class worker.

Concerns over income equality should persuade Democrats--the supposed party of the people--to focus primarily on the basics of economic growth. This is precisely what we have not been doing for over a generation.

Just think of the billions sunk into convention centers, yuppie condos, performing arts centers and other ephemera. These produce some high-wage short-term construction and architecture jobs, but after that, they offer largely low-paying service work. Meanwhile the Chinese and other competitors dredge new harbors, build high-speed rail systems, new freeways and fiber-optic lines--the keys for pushing their economies to the next stage.

Sure, you can say, the Chinese are also hurting from this financial crisis. But at least they can pay for their own stimulus. The Germans, Russians and Japanese, for now, can also dip into their dollar reserves to pay for new infrastructure investment. In contrast, we will have to beg the money for our stimulus like some busted-up small-town bookie.

More serious yet, the real problem may be whether we even want to make the changes necessary to boost our economy. Americans were once masters of both innovation and production, but we have begun to fall behind on both counts.

Indeed, our policies no longer focus on such things as manufacturing and energy production, deeming them beneath our dignity. As early as the mid-1980s, the New York Stock Exchange issued a report baldly stating that "a strong manufacturing economy is not a requisite for a prosperous economy."

At the same time, we have deluded ourselves into believing that a small number of "creative" alchemists--software engineers, hedge fund managers, urban developers--could transform code, cash and condos into limitless pots of gold. The huge winnings of these few would then allow the rest of us to spend like teenagers on a borrowed credit card, consuming everything made by the hard-working fools abroad.

By now we should know better. Americans possess no monopoly on "creativity." Our suppliers abroad are using the billions made from selling us everyday stuff to help finance future moves up the value-added scale. You can see it in every critical field from aerospace, steel and pharmaceuticals to software services, fashion design and entertainment.

Americans can meet this challenge but not by goading the family to spend more at Wal-Mart. Instead, we need to remember what actually drives economic growth. The ultimate fate of the economy will not be determined in the malls, but in the mines, oilfields, farms, factories, design shops and laboratories of a more productive economy.

Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and executive editor of www.newgeography.com. He is finishing a book on the American future and writes a weekly column for Forbes.com.

Technorati Tags: economy, manufacturing, consumption, bailout, stimulus, china, india, software, hedge funds

Copying machine graveyard

2008-12-28T10:44:00.000-08:00

This can't be good news for the document technology industry here in USA either. With so much of unused, off-lease equipment in the market, sales of new equipment is likely to take a bigger hit. This apart from the fact that new copiers are not high on business' investment plans right now and increasing reliance on electronic communications is finally making a dent on the print volumes.

From Asahi Shimbun

Recession leads to copy machine graveyard

Recession leads to copy machine graveyard (TAKU HOSOKAWA/ THE ASAHI SHIMBUN)

With barely space to move in this warehouse packed with used copy
machines in Tokorozawa, Saitama Prefecture, OA Land, an office
equipment leasing company, recently placed a cap on buying used office
equipment. The company acquired as much as 70 percent more used items
in recent months than usual as the number of companies going bankrupt
or cutting back has risen amid the current global financial crisis.
(IHT/Asahi: December 24,2008)

India - tradition and science living in harmony

2008-10-29T18:48:00.000-07:00

A quotation from ancient hindu text - Rigveda -on the quest to understand the cosmos by means of studying the closest heavenly body from earth - the moon.

It is remarkable that science and tradition exists so much more harmoniously in a country often ridiculed by the West as being overly traditional, religious and superstitious. While we are still arguing in USA about evolution, it is the defacto standard in all government run schools in India - and to the best of my knowledge there has never been any religious hue and cry about it. There are many other such examples - some of which too controversial for me to relate here.

Here's a great piece from NY Times that talks about it here.

Clean transportation, renewable energy and mass employment

2008-10-18T11:00:00.000-07:00

While USA debates and argues, the rest of the world moves forward with innovations and real solutions. Here's a great example from India "Solekshaw" - the solar rickshaw. It combines the most popular transportation in Indian cities with solar power charged battery motor to solve a range of problems at the same time. Decidedly low tech in its approach, it is a clear example of the fact that the technology is out there - it's the adoption and government initiatives that are lagging behind.

And, while we still can't charge our cellphones in a taxicab in most American cities, this $500 rickshaw comes with 4 cellphone charging stations! And that brings us to the next innovation where India and China will lead the way - the adoption of mobile as the main channel for information and commerce.

http://dst.gov.in/whats_new/press-release08/solekshwa-launched.htm

Congratulations NASA on your 50th Anniversary

2008-09-21T18:12:00.000-07:00

Two shuttles on the launchpad - one as a backup. That is a first - looks like NASA learned its lesson well -hope we'll never need the standby though.

All the best to the Atlantis crew for the upcoming mission to repair Hubble Space Telescope.