Analysis on Israel and Middle East

Israel Egypt Relations

2011-11-26T07:15:00.000-08:00

Since the fall of President Mubarak earlier this year, Israel Egypt relations have had their ups and downs. The relations have been impacted by other events and likewise these events have impacted on their relations too. This article reviews and analyses Israel Egypt relations under the new interim government in Egypt which continues to struggle to keep all parties satisfied.

A triangle has formed in recent months that includes the relations between 3 regional players, Egypt, Hamas and Israel. The triangle is focussed around the Sinai region which, with a loosened grip of control by the Egyptian government, has created a vacuum for which terrorists from various factions have been able to exploit. Four major inter-related events have taken place recently that illustrate the highly sensitive nature of this region:

- 18th August 2011 - A cross border raid from Gaza, through the Sinai and into Israel results in 8 Israelis being killed. The result of which was a renewed round of violence between Israel and armed oranisations in Gaza.

- Following the cross border raide, 5 Egyptian soldiers were killed in Israel's return of fire which resulted in the incitement of Egyptian youths and culminated in the storming of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo on 9th September.

- 18th October 2011 - Gilad Shalit is released after 5 years in captivity following mediation by Egypt and thus ending 5 years of negotiations.

- Late October 2011 - more rockets are fired from Gaza with return shelling by Israel's Air Force and ending with a ceasefire mediated by the Egyptians.

What is clear to see is the following: 1) The Arab Spring has created a highly unstable Sinai region that is a hotbed for terrorist activity and smuggling of weapons for groups ranging from Hamas to Al Quaida; 2) The voice of the Arab people is strong and has major influence that can easily be turned against Israel; 3) Despite this, the Egyptian government has proved itself a capable negotiator and holds strong influence in the region.

Let us now look at each of the above incidents to review how they impact on the situation as a whole and Israel Egypt relations in particular.

On October 18th fifteen men from the Popular Resistence Committees, the same group that kidnapped Gilad Shalit and three Americans in Gaza, wore clothes almost identical to Egyptian soldiers and carried out a raid that originated in Gaza but was launched from the Sinai, so as to confuse the Israeli military, with the aim of killing or kidnapping Israeli citizens. Israeli intelligence had forewarning of the attack and so was well prepared to retaliate before more damage could be done and resulted in the killing of 5 Egyptian soldiers in the ensuing gun fight that took place. That the attack was possible at all is due to a loss of control in the Sinai that elements from Gaza can now cross freely without the watchful guard of Egyptian soldiers. The attack also indicates how Hamas was unable to control other armed elements in Gaza and had to pay the price of Israeli air strikes before a ceasefire could finally take place but no thanks to Hamas but rather to the Egyptian interim government.

Egypt was caught in the middle of this incident and was infuriated to have 5 of its soldiers killed in a conflict that had little to do with them. With Israel being mindful of its delicate relations with Egypt and finding itself isolated in the new Middle East, felt the need to appease Egypt by delivering an apology for those killed that was given on the same day that Gilad Shalit was released on October 18th. Equally, Egypt's relations with Hamas were stretched upon finding that its military clothing had been used to stage an attack against Israel.

The Sinai as a Hotbed for Terrorism
The attack mentioned above highlights how the Sinai has become a vacuum for Islamist terrorist activity. Beduin tribes, once discriminated against by the Mubarak regime through lack of civil rights of owning land, attaining certain jobs and having had no investment put into the Sinai, now survive by acting as smuggling agents for anyone willing to hire their services to finance an underground economy.

The pipeline that sends gas from Egypt to Israel and Jordan and provides Israel with 40% of its gas has been attacked no less than 7 times since Mubarak was deposed. Smuggling of weapons has increased considerably with greater ease and with the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, weapons from Libya are now flowing through the Sinai. After an Egyptian police station was attacked in the Sinai town of El Arish, for the first time since 1979, Israel has allowed Egypt to send in reinforcements to regain stability in the Sinai though it is uncertain whether this will be enough.

Internal Politics in Egypt
Egypt is currently undergoing a period of deep transition and it is very unclear where it will end up. What is clear however is that the Egyptian people have found their voice and are insisting they be heard. It is also possible that with the fall of the secular regime of President Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood will strengthen considerably and may well gain popularity on the back of the heavy anti-Israel sentiment that exists in Egyptian society. An examples of this comes in the storming of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo in September that had Israeli personnel taking refuge in the secure room in the Embassy and being saved at the last minute by mediation from Barack Obama and an elite commando unit of the Egyptian army.

The background to the angry mob storming the embassy was the accidental killing of 5 Egyptian soldiers in the return fire of Israeli soldiers in the attack described above. The storming was sparked by this event though the basis for it was a swelling of anti-Israel feeling from the people themselves who have been demanding an end to the Israel-Egypt peace deal of 1979. The international community as well as Israel and Egypt themselves are well aware that it is this treaty that is remaining the last block of stability for Israel Egypt relations.

The Gilad Shalit Deal
It took Israel and Hamas over 5 years to negotiate a deal that would see the release of 1027 Palestinian prisoners in return for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit. The breakthrough came as a result of a change in relations between Hamas and Egypt.

One major factor behind this change is what is happening in Damascus, current home to Hamas's headquarters. With the imminent fall of Bashar Al Assad's regime there, Hamas is feeling insecure about where it will base its next home, and so is turning increasingly towards Egypt for help, especially as the Muslim Brotherhood gains strength there.In addition to this, Hamas has been suffering from reduced aid from its patron, Iran, increasing unpopularity in Gaza due to economic difficulties and bad governance and its rejection of Mahmud Abbas's attempt of unilateral state recognition at the UN last month. In addition, Hamas feels itself pressured by other terrorist factions in Gaza who seem to be challenging Hamas's control there as it finds it difficult to balance between acting as a government and continuing its struggle against Israel. All of this meant that it badly needed an achievement to show the residents of Gaza and win back popular support.

For its part, Israel found this was the window of opportunity to have Shalit released as the sands were shifting beyond its control, it was being isolated internationally and within the Middle East, it had lost its key alley of Turkey and was being threatened by Abbas's attempt for statehood at the UN that was gathering pace and international support.

In all of this Egypt saw its opportunity to replace the German mediators and act as the saving interlocutor that both Hamas and Israel needed to strengthen their ties with Egypt.

The Future
It would seem that although Egypt is an unstable state and poses serious potential risk to Israel and Israel Egypt relations, it is also a proven mediator and hold particular influence in the region. It is likely then that whoever comes to power following elections there, they will want to honour the 1979 peace agreement as it will enable it to continue their position in the new Middle East and its aid from the US.

As Hamas comes to depend on Egypt more too, Israel will need to maintain as close relations with Egypt as possible in case of future kidnappings and other attacks that may well require Egyptian mediation. Indeed, with the Muslim Bortherhood gaining strength in Egypt, Hamas has felt emboldened by this and claimed an aim to carry out more kidnappings of Israeli citizens.

Whether Egypt will be able to play a larger role in Israel-PA relations is yet to be seen but following the loud voice of the Egpytian people that is very much anti-Israel, the Egyptian government will have to take heed of this if it is to remain in power and so should Israel-PA relations deteriorate into legal and political confrontations, then so shall Israel Egypt relations follow suit. Furthermore, should this be the case then Israel will find itself in a sharp dilemma as to how much it allowed the Egyptian military to build up its presence in the Sinai to prevent smuggling when at the same time its own people are demanding an end to the 1979 peace pact and an end to Israel Egypt relations altogether.

Palestinian Prisoners to be Released

2011-10-16T04:44:00.000-07:00

The Israeli Prisons Service has released the list of Palestinian Prisoners that are to be released in exchange for Gilad Shalit, expected to be on Tuesday this week. Here is the full list of each of those to be released, including their date of birth, when they were arrested and how long they were sentenced to prison for.

Here is the full list of the first 450 Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for Gilad Shalit.

List of Prisoners for Gilad Shalit

2011-10-16T04:14:00.000-07:00

The list of prisoners that will be released in exchange for Gilad Shalit has been published on the Israeli Prisons Service website. It includes over 450 murderers and terrorists that have been serving anything from a few years to multiple life sentences for their part in various terrorist bombings against Israel over the years.

It will be a tough day indeed for President Shimon Peres who is required to sign off on each pardon for the list of prisoners that are to be released by Tuesday this week. He will be reading through each case and despite having a heavy heart as he reviews the background behind each terrorist and the blood they have on their hands, he will be signing each one for their release.

Included in the list, is Tamimi Aref Ahmad Ahlam, a Palestinian woman serving 16 life sentences for her role in the Sbarro Pizza Restaurant bombing that killed 16 people. Here is a list of the others and information on their criminal records:

1. Randa Muhammad Yusuf Shahatit

2. Abir Isa Amru

3. Iman Muhammad Gazzawi

4. Amal Fayiz Jum’a Mahmud

5. Miryam Salim Tarabin

6. Abir Mahmud Hasan Awda

7. Fatin al-sa’di

8. Wafa Samir al-Bass

9. Abu Golmi Youssef Lanan

10. Sanabil Nabigh Yusuf Barik

11. Fatina Mustafa Khalil Abu Ayyash

12. A’isha Muhammad A’biyat

13. Hanan Ahmed Ali

14. Nasrin Abu Zina

15. Shalbi Hana

16. Kraja Samud

17. Pollshchuk Irina – Ukraine – 2002 – released

18. Issawi Abd Faiz Ibtisam

19. Sh’hadeh Muhammad Hussein Sana’a – Israel – 2002 – released

20. Al-Saadi Said Ali Qahara

21. Jiwasi Ziyad Dawa’a

22. Daragmeh Rawad Hussein Ruma

23. Latifa Muhammad Abu Dara’a – Nablus – 2003 – released

24. Tamimi Aref Ahmad Ahlam

25. Muna Jawad Ali Amna - lead a 16yr old Israeli boy to his death by pretending to be an online romance but instead lured Ofir Rahum to Ramallah where terrorists were waiting to murder him.

26. Aliaa Muhammad Yhya Jaadallah Ja’abri

27. Ramyah Ratab Hassan Abu Samra

Update: In addition, the following female terrorists were released a few years ago in exchange for the Shalit video that showed proof of life that Shalit was still alive.

1. Ayat Kisi – Sentenced to one year and eight months for attempted murder. Original release date: November 18, 2009.

2. Rojena Riyad Mohammed Jinajira – Sentenced to three years for conspiracy and attempted murder. Original release date: June 9, 2011.

3. Rimat abu Ayisha – Sentenced to nine months for membership in a banned organization. Original release date: November 13, 2009.

4. Haba Assad Halil Alantasha – Sentenced to three years and four months for attempted murder. Original release date: March 03, 2011.

5. Samud Abdullah Halil – Sentenced to one year and eight months for attacking a soldier and possession of a knife with the intent to cause bodily harm. Original release date: December 15, 2009.

6. Mimouna Javrin – Detained without bail pending trial for attempted murder and possession of a weapon with the intent to cause bodily harm.

7. Jihad Abu-Turki – Sentenced to one year and three months for attempted murder and possession of a weapon with the intent to cause bodily harm. Original release date: May 24, 2011.

8. Barah Malki – Sentenced to eleven months for attempted murder and assault of a police officer in the line of duty. Original release date: November 11, 2009.

9. Lila Mohammed Tzalah al-Buhari – Sentenced to eight years and four months for attempted murder. Original release date: October 31, 2010.

10. Fatima Yunus al-Zak – Held without bail pending trial for charges of undergoing paramilitary training, attempted murder, and possession of a weapon.

11. Nifin Halil Abdallah Dak – sentenced to three and a half years for attempted murder. Original release date: January 01, 2010.

12. Kafah Bahash – Sentenced to a year and a half for assaulting a soldier. Original release date: July 02, 2010.

13. Linan Yusuf Abu Ghulma – Sentenced to six years for attempted murder and carrying a concealed weapon. Original release date: September 08, 2010.

14. Shirin Mohammed Hasan – Sentenced to three years and nine months for attempted murder. Original release date: March 04, 2010.

15. Sana’a Tzalah Hagargah – Sentenced to two years in prison for attempted murder and possession of a weapon. Original release date: August 05, 2010.

16. Sabeena Ziad Mohammed Manal – Sentenced to seven years for membership in a banned organization, conspiracy and attempted murder. Original release date: November 19, 2010.

17. Zahoor Abed Hamdan – Sentenced to eight years for attempted murder. Original release date: May 15, 2011.

18. Hiam Ahmed Yusuf Ba’id – Sentenced to three years and four months for membership in a banned organization. Original release date: May 07, 2010.

19. Nahad Farhat Daghra – Held without bail pending trial for assaulting a soldier and possession of a weapon.

20. Najuah Abed Alghani – Held without bail pending trial for membership in an illegal organization and disturbing the peace.

Gilad Shalit Deal

2011-10-14T07:42:00.000-07:00

After five years in captivity with no outside contact at all, finally a deal has been reached to release Gilad Shalit. The price is 1,027 Palestinian prisoners being held in Israeli prisons for crimes of terrorism and murder.

The Gilad Shalit deal will be implemented in two stages. In the first stage, 450 prisoners will be handed over to various territories, not all will be returning to Gaza or the West Bank where their families live. Shalit will be transferred to Egypt and from there flown to Israel. In two months time, a further 550 Palestinians will be released according to the choosing that suits Israel.

The deal has been made possible due to various factors including new heads of the Mossad and the Shin Bet in Israel, a new regime in Egypt that has wanted to show its relevance and strength amidst the perception that the Egpytian government is in turmoil and not in control and a Hamas which is losing popularity in the Gaza Strip and feeling its Headquaters on unstable ground in Damascus as the Syrian regime heads towards a civil war.

The price is high but it was never going to get lowered and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu decided the window of opportunity was there to be taken, especially as Hamas had loosened its tight grip on the negotiations since June. The Gilad Shalit deal closes a chapter, though Hamas has not renounced its policy of kidnapping more Israeli soldiers and so the potential is still high for more as well as an increased danger of those being released being free to resume their terrorist activities.

Sanctions Against Syria

2011-10-06T14:17:00.000-07:00

As the unrest continues the international community's demand for tougher sanctions against Syria increases. Thousands of civilians have now been killed in the Syrian uprisings and NATO and others have been pushing for sanctions against syria and the Assad regime to end the human rights abuses there. Recent statements from Bashar al-Assad have drawn Israel further into the matter.

This week Canada and Turkey announced further sanctions against Syria though stopped short of wanting to make a military intervention there. Turkey's sanctions have however included both commercial and military bans of exports and business between the two counties who were once allies in the region.

Although the violence in Syria has resulted in over 3000 deaths of Syrian civilians, the UN Security Council has continued, as usual when an Arab country is involved, to remain silent on the issue and refuses to debate the Syrian uprisings or sanctions against Syria. The US and Britain has imposed their own sanctions independently but there has been no action taken by the UN to impose sanctions from all countries. The US and UK have also stated that they will not be taking a Libyan style military intervention in Syria but instead will be relying on international pressure to bring about an end to the violence.

If its just sanctions against Syria that the international community is counting on to bring the violence to an end and Bashas al-assad to his senses and back in line with humanitarian norms, then we can very well expect to see many more deaths and abuses of human rights in Syria before any real change takes place.

Anniversary of the Yom Kippur War

2011-10-06T10:52:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow marks the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, the day that Israel was attacked in 1973 by a surprise on the holiest day in the Jewish calendar by Egypt and Syria. The anniversary of the Yom Kippur War was commemorated across Israel in many ceremonies to remember the 2000+ soldiers who died in the war as well as a last minute military drill to ensure Israel is still prepared to defend itself from a potential threat.

The Yom Kippur War began as a coordinated attack by Syria and Egypt and supported by Jordan and Iraq as a way to regain the territories captured by Israel 6 years earlier in the 6 Day War of 1967. Egptian forces crossed the ceasefire lines of the Suez canal whilst Syria began advancements into the Golan Heights in the north. Although being caught totally off guard due to the Yom Kippur holiday, within three weeks Israeli forces had managed to push back the Egyptians to within 100km of Cairo and 40km of Damascus and held on to its territory that was the war aims of the aggressors to recapture.

Thirty-eight years later, the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War is still fresh in the minds of Israelis and this year, following the turmoil in the region recently, a last minute emergency military drill has been conducted to ensure the IDF is still prepared for a surprise attack, should one be on the cards from its neighbours. Despite the solid cold-peace between Israel and Egypt that resulted from the war, that peace is now looking quite fragile following recent developments on Israel's southern border with Egypt.

Israel Turkey Gas Discovery

2011-10-05T11:01:00.000-07:00

As if recent tensions between Turkey and Israel over the Mavi Mamara flotilla incident was not enough, the Israeli discovery of massive gas fields on its northern coast is now adding increased fuel to the fire. The battle that has been taking place in the diplomatic arena however seems to have now turned to the spectre of military action.

In 2009, Israeli commissioned the Houston based Noble Energy, along with Israel's Delek Energy company to search for gas on Israel's northern border. The search resulted in the discovery of a huge 8.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) gas field 50 miles off the coast of Haifa, a field now called Tamaer Gas Field. It was the largest gas find of that year. In 2010 the consortium discovered an even larger field, called Leviathan, that holds 16tcf and was the largest find of the decade. The discoveries would provide Israel with a significant boost to its economy with over $300bn of gas, satisfy Israel's gas demands for the forseeable future, save $3bn in current gas-importing costs and possibly turn it into a gas exporter to Europe and India.

The find has caused tensions however due to its location in the Levant Basin Province, an area which spans across ill defined maritime borders of Israel, Turkey, Lebanon, Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

According to the UN Convention on the Law and the Sea, countries are allowed to extend an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) 200miles from their coastline where there is at least 400 miles that separate one country's coastline from another, so that the border is halfway between the two countries. Israel signed an agreement saying as such with Cyprus back in December 2010. The agreement however has been challenged by Lebanon and Turkey.

Turkey, becoming more and more radicalised due to the policies of Prime Minister Recip Tayyip Erdogan, has become further angered by the cooperation being shown between Greece and Cyprus, with Israel by planning to export the new gas throughout Europe and thus becoming competitors to Turkey who already exports there. the anger follows Turkey's increasingly anti-Israel rhetoric as Turkey aims to improve and assert its position within the rapidly changing Arab world following the Arab Spring this year.

Erdogan's rhetoric has alarmed Israel's policy makers as he shifts from diplomatic tension to more concrete threats of military action of sending naval ships to accompany future flotillas to Gaza. Turkish naval ships have already been spotted sailing uncomfortably close to Israel's shoreline in a manner that seems to indicate it is trying to ascertain Israel's alertness should the tensions come to military blows. The most recent flare up has come with Israeli fighter jets being scrambled to inspect the presence of Turkish naval ships that have been reported in the area of the 2 gas fields. This in turn resulted in Turkey scrambling its own jets.

Although Israel reached an agreement with Cyprus, a country with which it is at peace with, it does not have such an agreement with Lebanon, a country who is technically at war with Israel and who's government is now dominated by a terrorist group, Hezbollah. Following Lebanon's raising of concern to the UN, Israel responded with its own claim in August 2010. Israel asserts that Lebanon's claim over its boundary is too far south. This is irrelevant as far as Lebanon is concerned and as it collects evidence to provie its case to the UN, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been issuing threats against Israel that it will act to protect Lebanon and take any action necessary to fight off threats to its resources. Lebanon's Energy Minister stated in July 2011 that it will not sit by while Israel enjoys the benefit of Lebanon's resources and will ensure that if Lebanon is in an unstable state then so it will create this same state for Israel:

For Israel to be able to exploit its oil resources, the companies must work in an atmosphere of stability and calm. Israel will not enjoy stability, calm, and tranquility unless Lebanon enjoys them too. Lebanon will not experience volatility and instability, while Israel enjoys stability. Absolutely not.

Israel, while it still has the upper hand on this issue, continues to develop its discovery and has stated that it will do whatever it takes to protect its new discovery. The tensions then are clear and with gas in the Tamar Field being expected to be collected by 2012, the northern coast of Israel is an area that has big potential for serious and dangerous outcomes.

Hezbollah's Political Rise in Lebanon

2011-07-03T08:50:00.000-07:00

Despite indictments against Hezbollah member this week in Lebanon, it remains to be seen whether the murderers of Rafik Hariri will actually be brought to serve their time due to the increasing power and influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since the 'Cedar Revolution' in 2005 and the withdrawal of Syrian run government, Hezbollah has made significan political gains in Lebanon backed by pro-Iranian and Pro-Syrian elements in the Lebanese government. The result is that the March 14th pro-West movement is now the opposition leaving Hezbollah in the dominant position.

Despite the Syrian military withdrawl from Lebanon in 2005, it is known that Syria still hold significant political power in Lebanon and played a large part in trying to derail the trials to find the culprits of the murder of Rafik Hariri, Lebanon's former PM and possibly the most dramatic assassination in the Middle East for many years. As a result, the new PM in Lebanon, is the Syrian backed, Najib Mikati, a multi-millionaire businessman who has Hezbollah's interest close to his heart too. It is after all important for Syria to have an ally on its border to which in can turn to should the troubles and riots on its own soil get even more out of control. Indeed, there are reports that much of Hezbollah's weapons have been moved from Syria into Lebanon in fear that its patron's regime should fall.

So where does this leave Lebanon's relations with Israel?
Israel, since the Second Lebanon War in 2006 in its fight against a powerful guerilla forces of Hezbollah, has claimed that any attack by Hezbollah will be considered an attack from Lebanon itself as Hezbollah is clearly developing its political wing alongside its terrorist division. For Israel Hezbollah's political division in government will be treated, as they should, as one and the same. During the Second Lebanon War this was not the case as the pro-Wester March 14 Movement was the main party in power and it was difficult for Israel to make clear that its war was not with Lebanon but with the terrorist fighters of Hezbollah. Now however, as Hezbollah has clearly settled in its new coalition government and has garnered more support, the Israeli's position of treating Lebanon's government as more closely aligned with Hzbollah will be reinforced too and tensions will rise further on Israel's northern border.

The rise of Hezbollah in the Lebanese government also raises questions about the need for continued military support of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Inititally this support was provided by America when Syria withdrew in 2005 in order to build a pro-Western government. As this has failed to happen and the weapons will be supervised and distributed, or not, by Anti-Western elements, is there a need for this support after all?

A new war with Israel? This seems unlikely for now as Hezbollah will not want to risk losing its support from the people in the south who already leave their villages to take refuge in Beirut as soon as there are signs of trouble on the border. Hezbollah, although recuperated from its losses from the 2006 war, will not want to risk major damage once again with a fresh round of fighting that it knows will mean a massive onslaught of bombing from Israel, bigger than what it saw in 2006.

According to Reuters, it is possible that Hezbollah may want to cause a small skirmish on Israel's border to detract attention away from the troubles in Syria. However Hezbollah is a client of Iran, not Syria and its not clear whether Hezbollah itself would want such a distraction at the potential cost of a full frontal confrontation with Israel. And besides, it has enough to deal with domestically to fight off internal competition within Lebanon.

Osama Bin Laden Killed

2011-05-02T11:32:00.000-07:00

The world woke up this morning to be surprised by the news that America's most wanted man, Osama Bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaida has been killed after a 40 minute raid on his compound in Abottobad, Pakistan. What does this mean for those who have been inspired by Bin Laden's leadership to carry out attacks of their own in the name of Al Qaida-ism remains unclear but one thing is clear, it is a massive achievement in what Bush termed 'the War on Terror'.

Following a tip-off by a Guantanamo Bay inmate that lead to the CIA and US Special Forces catching up with one of the Bin Laden's few and trusted couriers, after years of investigation the courier was finally tracked down and put under surveillance in August last year. Depsite speculation that Bin Laden was hiding out in caves in the Pakistani province of Waziristan, the investigation lead to a luxurious suburb just south of Islamabad where Bin Laden's compound was guarded with high walls and barbed wire, merely 100yards away from a Pakistani military training base. The raid by US forces took less than 40 minutes and resulted in both the courier, Bin Laden and a few others who were in the house at the time being killed and taken away for suspection and confirmation that it was really the target that they had killed.

The raid involved members of the US's elite NAVY SEAL TEAM 6, a top conuter-terrorism unit, and the intelligence the US had gathered was shared with no other country, including Pakistan, with only a handful of people in the White House being aware of it either. As the US hellipcopters hovered above the house at 1am on Sunday morning, guards within the compound ascended the roof and opened fire on them with rocket propelled grenades though were overcome by the elite unit who killed Bin Laden and evacuated his body.

Established by Osama Bin Ladin in the late 1980s to bring together Arabs who fought in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union, Al-Qa'ida is multi-national, with members from numerous countries and with a worldwide presence whose senior leaders are also senior leaders in other terrorist organizations, including those designated by the US Department of State as foreign terrorist organizations, such as the Egyptian al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya and the Egyptian al-Jihad.

Al-Qa'ida's current goal is to establish a pan-Islamic Caliphate throughout the world by working with allied Islamic extremist groups to overthrow regimes it deems non-Islamic and expelling Westerners and non-Muslims from Muslim countries particularly Saudi Arabia.

As an ideology, Al Qaida professes that the Muslim world has been and continues to be victim to a prolongued Judeo-Christian attack against Islam embodied most notably in the form of America and Israel and is the root of all suffering and humiliation that the Islamic world has experienced since the time of the Crusades and continues today through the US, Israel and the corrupt and secular Islamic states that it seeks to overthrow. Al Qaida strongly opposes the values, influences and ideas of the West that it considers 'unislamic' especially democratic principles. In Al Qaida's view, the only acceptable form of government is a "Caliphate" based exclusively on Sharia law. However, AI Qaida is careful to define itself only by what it opposes and has yet to define what the Islamic Caliphate it advocates would actually stand for.

As a result, and with the funding for Al Qaida's activities having not required Osama Bin Laden's help for quite some time now, it is highly likely that the removal of its leader is nothing more than merely a symbolic gesture and practically not much will have changed on the ground as far as the determination of its adherents is concerned.

Hamas-PA Re-Unification

2011-04-27T12:41:00.000-07:00

Momentum is picking up as both PA President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu take off on their tour of Europe to round up support for the declaration, or prevention of, a Palestinian state at the UN in September. The latest move, as Bibi begins talks in UK, France and Germany, is that the PA claims to have made a reconciliation with its Hamas rivals in the Gaza Strip following talks in Cairo.

It seems hardly likely that Hamas has come to a compromise over its core aims and mission, at least not in the long term. At best they are short term commitments in order to stave off potential uprisings in Gaza following those going on elsewhere in the region. While the PA edge closer to drumming up support, claiming 130 countires will vote in favour of a Palestinian state at the UN, the people in Gaza must surely be wondering what that could mean for them and they would be turning to its Hamas leaders for answers. Were Hamas to reply they are not a part of it would surely spark protests amongst what is already a highly pressurised situation of poor living conditions compared to the economic progress that has been made in Abbas's controlled areas in the West Bank.

The reaction from Israel to this reconciliation, as stated previously, is one of warning of choosing between peace with Israel or peace with the terrorist organisation that is Hamas, as it could not have both. The PA has responded with its own warning that Israel must choose between peace with the PA, Hamas and the unified Palestinian people or settlements. Bibi's response to this was:

Abbas has to choose whether he wants peace with Israel, or peace with Hamas,” the official said. “He can’t have both. If he chooses peace with Hamas it will bury the peace process.

How this new reconciliation will pan out in practice is yet to be seen. For all intent and purposes for the time being it could be no more than a simple ruse to drum up support to compliment Abbas's diplomatic tour.

Itamar Murderers Arrested

2011-04-17T06:47:00.000-07:00

After a month since the horrific terrorist attack that saw most of the Fogel family, including a 3 month old baby, murdered in their home in Itamar, it will come as little comfort to their next of kin to know that the terrorists have now been caught. Although it is an impressive piece of investigative and counter-terror work carried out by the Shin Bet, police and IDF the pain felt by the remaining members of the Fogel family is still as sharp as ever.

The first suspect is Hakim Mazen Awad, 18, a high school student whose father was active in the Popular Front terror organization. Awad has a prison record. His uncle, who was killed in clashes with IDF forces in 2003, was involved in a June 2002 terror attack in Itamar, which left five dead.

The second suspect, Amjad Mahmad Awad, 19, also a student, is affiliated with the Popular Front.

Both suspects have admitted to the killings and show no regret or remorse. Indeed, they admit that had they seen the other 2 children in the apartment that night then they would have killed them too. A full report can be found here.

The punishment will likely be a life sentence in an Israeli prison and the murderers could well become a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Hamas for the release of Gilad Shalit who has now been in Hamas possession, without access to any messages or visits from the International Red Cross, for over 5 years. Could these two murderers be seen again in 20 years time in another Samir Kuntar type deal?
.

Hamas Target School Bus

2011-04-08T06:02:00.000-07:00

Due to the relaxed security processes following the Egyptian revolution, Hamas has been able to receive more weapons that they have used recently to provoke IDF responses in the Gaza Strip. As a result Israel has been forced to make pro-active attacks to curb the flow of weapons that are smuggled into Gaza from as far away as Sudan.

Nevertheless, although most rockets land in desolate fields in southern Israel, one anti-tank missile that was fired purposely at a children's schoolbus only 5 kilometers away, has caused sever injuries to the driver and a 16yr old boy. The IDF has responded with air strikes in Gaza that have killed 5 Hamas terrorists. Both sides however are conscious of escalated attacks and Israel has forced Hamas into a ceasefire along with the many armed factions that Israel considers Hamas able to control.

Although Israel sees Hamas as the ruling party in Gaza and thus holds it responsibile for all actions there, there are concerns that Hamas does not have control over the situation, including the escalation in attacks. Indeed, some say that the head of Hamas's military wing, Ahmed Jabari, does not even taking into account the views of Hamas Prime Minister, Ismail Haniyeh, when considering attacks against Israel.

Arms Smuggling into Lebanon and the Gaza Strip

2011-04-08T01:01:00.000-07:00

As the aftermath of the Egyptian revolution continues to be rolled out on a political level, behind the scenes the efforts to curb smuggling of weapons to Hamas in the Gaza Strip have waned. As a result, Israel has been accused by Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Karti of taking efforts into its own hands by carrying out an air strike on Tuesday that killed 2 people, one of which was a chief smuggler of weapons for Hamas. Israel has denied all involvement.

The attack however ties in with concerns over smuggling in the region as highlighted by the below transcript from a secret meeting held in Tel Aviv on 5th April between US and Israeli Security officials.

Cable dated:2009-11-18T14:32:00
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002501
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2019
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOPS, PTER, KWBG, EG, IR, LE, IS
SUBJECT: 40TH JPMG: COUNTERSMUGGLING TECHNICAL DISCUSSION (PART 2 OF 4)
Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (S) Summary: Concurrent to the Joint Political Military Group (JPMG) Executive Session, IDF J5 and Israel Defense Intelligence (IDI) officers briefed U.S. JPMG delegation members on current arms transfers and weapons smuggling into Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. IDF J5 and IDI officers first focused on arms transfers to Hizballah in Lebanon via Iran and Syria, and provided current estimates of Hizballah arms. IDF J5 and IDI officers argued that Hizballah's ultimate goal during any future conflict is to launch a massive number of missiles and rockets daily into Israeli territory, including those that can reach the Tel Aviv area. J5 and IDI also described the sophisticated smuggling routes from Iran into the Gaza Strip, arguing that Hamas is now more powerful than prior to Operation Cast Lead. IDF J5 and IDI officers noted improved countersmuggling efforts by Egypt, but stressed more must be done to curb smuggling into Gaza. This is the second of four cables (septel) reporting on the 40th Joint Political Military Group. End summary.

2. (SBU) Israeli attendees included representatives from the IDF J5, IDI, Shin Bet, and Mossad. The U.S. delegation was led by PM Coordinator for Counter Piracy Robert Maggi, and included PM/RSAT John Schwenk, OSD Israel Desk Officer Eric Lynn, J5 Israel Desk Officer LTC Alan Simms, U.S. DAO Tel Aviv Assistant Air Attache Matt Yocum, EUCOM LCDR Molly McCabe, and U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv political-military officer Jason Grubb.

3. (S) Maggi stressed the importance of and noted progress with counter-smuggling efforts into Gaza -- but also acknowledged the GOI desire to see even further progress. He said the USG was looking for practical ideas to improve counter-smuggling efforts. IDF J5 officers argued that smuggling represents a strategic challenge for the GOI, which is facing a proliferation of knowledge and capabilities that are severely limiting Israel's diplomatic options for peace. IDF J5 made the case that weapons and knowledge proliferate from state actors, which disrupts diplomatic regional efforts. IDF J5 highlighted "regional faultlines," with the United States and Iran leading two opposing camps -- and countries such as China, Russia, and Qatar remaining on the sidelines with unclear intentions.

4. (S) IDI officers briefed on arms "deliveries" to the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, making the case with the latter that these arms transfers were done openly and should not be considered smuggling. IDI noted that since 2006, Hizballah has increased its quantity of sophisticated arms with improved range and accuracy -- these arms were acquired via Syria and Iran despite the presence of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). IDI highlighted the continued desire by Hizballah to avenge the assassination of its former military commander Imad Mughniyah, and pointed to failed attempts to do so in Azerbaijan and Egypt. Finally, IDI reviewed the arms delivery route from Syria to Lebanon via the Beqa'a Valley, and then to points south through Beirut.

5. (S) IDI presented estimates of Hizballah arms in Lebanon, including a breakdown of arms south of the Litani River. According to the IDI, Hizballah possesses over 20,000 rockets, hundreds of 220 mm and 302 mm rockets, several hundred "Fajr" rockets, hundreds of simple anti-tank (AT) launchers with rockets and missiles, and hundreds of advanced anti-tank wire guided missiles (ATGM), dozens of SA-14, SA-7, and QW-1 anti-aircraft guns, several Ababil unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), an unknown quantity of C-802 coastal missiles and up to thousands of improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

6. (S) Given this arsenal, Maggi asked what the IDF thought Hizballah's intentions were. IDI officers opined that Hizballah was preparing for a long conflict with Israel in which it hopes to launch a massive number of rockets at Israel per day. IDI officers noted in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Tel Aviv was left untouched -- Hizballah will try to change the equation during the next round and disrupt everyday life in Tel Aviv. A Mossad official noted that Hizballah will want to ensure it can launch rockets and missiles to the very last day of the conflict, i.e., avoid running out of munitions. He estimated that Hizballah will try to launch 400-600 rockets and missiles at Israel per day -- 100 of which will be aimed at Tel Aviv. He noted that Hizballah is looking to sustain such launches for at least two months.

7. (S) IDI then shifted focus to the Gaza Strip, describing three circles of arms smuggling: 1. arms sources and

TEL AVIV 00002501 002 OF 002

financing, such as Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and unfettered arms markets such as Eritrea and Yemen, and possibly China; 2. transit areas and states such as the Red Sea, Yemen, Sudan, Syrian, Lebanon, and Libya; and finally, 3. the "close circle" along the Sinai-Egyptian border and Philadelphi route. Maggi asked what percentage of arms transfers occurred via land, sea and air. IDI noted that it was difficult to determine: smugglers tend to prefer the naval route -- as there are fewer obstacles -- but the last segment almost always occurred overland. IDF J5 added that land smugglers are learning from past experience and building new overland "bypasses." When asked about air routes from Iran over Turkey, IDI officials indicated that Turkey has been made aware of such activity, although a Mossad representative suggested Turkey may not be entirely aware of the extent of such activity, given the IRGC's smuggling expertise. The GOI highlighted that focusing solely on the last phase of smuggling (e.g. along the Philadelphi route) would only lead to limited success, and that wider efforts were key.

8. (S) IDI also provided an analysis of weapons entering Gaza following Operation Cast Lead. IDI noted that one of the goals of Cast Lead was to damage Hamas' ability to produce its own weapons. In this regard, the IDF was successful, but Hamas is reconstituting its capabilities. According to the IDI, Hamas possibly possesses a few rockets with ranges over 40 km -- perhaps as far as 60-70 km, or within range of Tel Aviv. In addition, the IDI believes Hamas possesses quality AT systems such as the Kornet PG-29 and quality anti-aircraft artillery (AAA). These weapons join an already potent arsenal including Grad rockets with ranges up to 40 km, ammonium perchlorate (APC) oxidizer for indigenous rocket production, hundreds of 120, 80 and 60 mm MBs, dozens of mortars, C5 K air-to-surface rockets, PG-7 AT rockets and launchers, SA-7 MANPADS, PKS AAA MGs and thousands of rounds of ammunition, and quality AT, such as Sagger missiles and launchers, and light anti-tank weapon (LAW) rockets.

9. (S) IDF J5 presented some basic benchmarks for possible countersmuggling solutions for Gaza. First, Egyptian national commitment is required. Other benchmarks outlined by the IDF included a clear chain of command, control of the Sinai and its inhabitants, systematic treatment of tunnel infrastructure, trial and imprisonment of smugglers, and overcoming traditional failures such as bribery and lack of coordination. IDF J5 noted that Egyptian Intelligence Minister Soliman has been supportive, while there is growing awareness on the part of Egyptian Defense Minister Tantawi -- who the IDF views as an obstacle to counter-smuggling efforts. However, IDF J5 said there is a lack of coordination between the Egyptian Army and intelligence service on counter-smuggling efforts.

10. (S) The IDF has observed a more systematic response by Egypt in recent months, including assigning guards to newly discovered tunnel entries, or even blowing up tunnels -- by IDF estimates, the Egyptian Army has collapsed 20-40 tunnels in the last 4-5 months. Nevertheless, the IDF continues to see a lack of urgency on the part of Egypt regarding smuggling into the Sinai; little attention has been paid to improving the socio-economic conditions of Bedouins primarily responsible for Sinai smuggling. While Egypt has made several key arrests -- including prominent smuggler Muhammad Sha'er -- others are still at large. Finally, the IDF noted the construction of an underground barrier and sensors' network -- but in many cases, the smugglers have dug deeper tunnels to avoid the network.

11. (S) The IDF J5 outlined consultations with geology and tunnel experts, whom suggested several possible solutions to the Sinai-Gaza tunneling network: constant and specific mine activity in the vicinity of the border to a depth of 20-30 meters; the use of a shock device or stun charge, or smoke at a tunnel entrance for deterrence purposes; constructing underground obstacles 90 meters deep to destabilize current tunnel infrastructure; close supervision and inspection of buildings in urban areas, in which there is a high concentration of trucks and newly built rooftops and roads; and the arrest of major smugglers -- such as Darwish Madi -- and utilization of interrogation to discover major tunnels and dismantle smuggling networks.

12. (U) PM Coordinator for Counter Piracy Maggi has cleared this cable. CUNNINGHAM.

Middle East Timeline of Events

2011-03-30T07:57:00.000-07:00

Want to keep up to date with everything that's happened and is happening in the Middle East? Click here for a full comprehensive and easy to navigate timeline.

Syrian Uprisings: Reasons

2011-03-30T06:55:00.000-07:00

With human rights groups saying that more than 60 people have been killed so far suring the Syrian uprisings, what exactly are the Syrian people, ruled by an Alawite minority, uprising against?

For full details on the protests in Deraa and other Syrian towns, click here.

Analysis on Middle East Revolutions

2011-03-28T12:35:00.000-07:00

A massive change is occurring throughout the Middle East and it is far from clear how the geo-political world will look once the dust has settled. Furthermore, in a region so rich in oil and yet so poor in democratic process or infrastructure, the western world is right to wonder what will be the outcome of these revolutions - democratisation for long suffering peoples or further radicalisation?

It is clear why the revolutions are taking place. Organised and carried out mainly by a large majority of young people who feel frustrated at lack of job security, social safety nets, basic freedoms of speech and movement as well as a lack of the dignity of clear governance, the people have finally had enough. What is not clear however is where these revolutions are headed and to what end. What is more, although these revolutions have been primarily inward facing, the concerns in Israel for how this will affect her, despite Israel's general long held belief that a democartic Middle East will improve prospects for peace and stability in the region, are strong.

The first major revolution we saw, shortly after Tunisia, was in Egypt. After 30 years of rule by Mubarak, the 80m strong Egyptian people finally stood up and hit back. Egypt however, a bastion of stability and a 'Moderate' leader in the region, is seen by Israel to be a taste case for the others to come. Sharing a 150 mile border with Israel across the Sinai, Egpyt is at the heart of the Arab world and is traditionally the sign of emerging trends, as the birthplace of the authoritarian military rule, Pan-Arabism Islam and now the revolt against dictatorship. After the 1973 yom Kippur War, supporting strongly by the US, Egypt lead the way in the signing of Peace Treaties with Israel that was shortly followed by a treaty with Jordan, both of which have stood the test of time and removed the threat of war between Israel and the strongest Arab military force.

Despite the military forces who have taken over the interim governance of Egypt following the ousting of Mubarak in January, Israelis still have reason for concern as to what lies ahead for the future of its peace treaty with Egypt. For one, although the peace treaty was kept in spirit, it was far from taken on board by the Egyptian people. One thing this revolution has called into question indeed is that peace treaties can be made with governments but to really be considered solid they need to also be made with the people themselves. As Egpyt took a strong position in coordinating Israeli-Palestinian relations, security and the peace process, the new regime may well look differently upon this. Whether the new government feels the same is very much up in the air.

Secondly, there is already a dangerous deterioration of security in the Sinai with the Egyptian police not monitoring the activities going on there as much as they did under Mubarak. Indeed, there has already been a sabotage on February 5th on the Egypt-Jordan natural gas pipeline with delays in it being re-installed (suggesting the delays were of a political nature as well as logistical) as well as attempted attacks on the gas pipeline that supplies gas from Egypt to Israel. This calls into question the future of commercial and business considerations between Israel and Egypt that will be determined by Egypt's foreign policy.

so what does this mean for the West and the International community as a whole? Although the US and Europe could not control much of what happened during the revolution itself, they can however have a major impact on what happens following it. With the US already supplying large amounts of military aid to Egypt, it should be looking, along with Europe due to its own economic deficit, to provide Egypt with the necessary tools to build its democratic infrastructure and institutions. The EU is in a good position to improve and upgrade its commitments to Egypt in economic reform and investments as already laid out in the EU-Egypt Action Plan of 2007.

In the wider context the revolution in Egypt took place at a time of weakening of te pragmatic Arab leadership lead by Egypt and Saudi Arabia as well as Jordan and the Palestinian Authority with many splits dividing their strength and unity against the more radical Shiite entity of Iran. Furthermore, there is an increasingly prominent view of the US's weakness in the region with regards to its influence and power.
in its place, the void was filled by more radical forces such as Iran, as is currently being seen in Iraq as the Americans come closer to withdrawing in the not too distant future, as well as on-the-fence states such as Turkey, Qatar and Syria who have positioned themselves as in-betweeners and hold much influence in the region enabling them to play one side off against the other.

In order to not allow these more pragmatic and moderate regimes, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, to fall, the internaitonal communtiy needs to show more support and involvment in bolstering them and their governments to ensure revolution does not break out there too. Furthermore, the west needs to get more involved in the transition process in general in those countries which are currently going through dramatic change.

As we watch the events in Libya unfold, it is crucial that the international community does not allow Ghaddafi's forces to win the battle for this will surely dishearten other potential revolutions that are boiling in places like Syria and even Iran. In contrast, autocratic rulers will interpret Ghaddafi's victory as evidence that the only way to suppress such potential revolutions is with violent and brute force in the knowledge that the West will unlikely intervene in fear of another failure.

As for the Peace process, there is strong debate in Israel over whether now is the time for renewal of it and trying to bring it back to life or to wait until the regional pieces of the jugsaw have fallen into place and they know who is who. The concern of starting the process again is whether there is enough stability to ensure that any potential agreement is sustainable.

Israeli PM, Bibi Netanyahu seems to have finally decided that the former option is more favourable as waiting for the regional outcome entails too much risk. To further delay the renewal of the process is only likely to encourage frustration from the Palestinians and strengthen the calls for self-declaration of a Palestinian State and the isolation of Israel in the public arena. In addition, with the current wave of uprisings taking place in the region, Palestinians may well be encouraged to undertake another popular uprising/Intifada and lead to further escalation and move away from the more pragmatic approach of round the table talks. The EU should sieze on this opportunity to support the Palestinians in bringing them back to the table and setting agreed upon parameters upon which the talks can take place. At the same time they need to continue the good work done by Palestinian Prime Minister Fayyed in the West Bank of institution building.

It may also be wise to revisit the Syrian peace track and lure it away from the grips of Iran to balance out the shaky balance of power. In turn this would cool down the relations it has with Hezbollah and bring it closer towards the moderate camp.

To conclude, the current level of instability in the Middle East makes the stakes way too high for the international community to ignore and simply let the chips fall where they may. The outcome of these revolutions will determine the world's geo-political scene for generations to come and so if the international community is to have any say in how they would like this new world to look, then the time to act is now.

IDF Siezes Weapons

2011-03-28T12:26:00.000-07:00

As Islamic revolutions continue to rage throughout the Middle East, the signs that Iran is taking this opportunity to expand its influence in the region are becoming more and more clear. On March 15th the Israeli Navy siezed a large shipment of weapons headed for Alexandria where upon disembarkment they would be smuggled across the Sinai and into the Hamas controlled Gaza Strip.

The full video of this capture can be seen here:

IDF Raids Gaza

2011-03-22T11:39:00.000-07:00

As the British, French and US forces begin their aerial bombardment of Colonel Ghadaffi's compounds and infrastructure to enable a no-fly zone in Libya, the Israel Air Force has been carrying out raids in Gaza following a large volley of morter and rockets fired by Hamas into Southern Israel's towns over the weekend.

50 rockets were fired by Hamas into Israel, disturbing the usual deterrence that Israel has created following the Gaza war back in 2009. The recent air raids by Israel will be aiming to restore this deterrence by causing sufficient damage to Hamas facilities in the Gaza Strip. The reason for the rapid increase in rocket attacks could well be Hamas's desire to artificially create a crisis situation that would detract from the internal unrest and dissatisfaction with their rule by Gaza residents.

Jihad Forums

2011-03-09T08:07:00.000-08:00

The Jihadi Websites Monitoring Group at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism presents a periodical review of significant issues discussed in Jihadi forums. The review covers a broad range of fields and presents trends in the dialogue between Jihadi activists and supporters. It examines new Jihadi publications as well as traditional news sources, and includes: leaders' statements, Jihadi magazines, interesting correspondence which stimulated dialogue, specific threats and clues regarding attacks, predicted future activity and more.

This report summarizes the most prominent events posted on the Jihadi online forums in the second half of January 2011. Among the central topics appearing in this issue are:
• An audio tape by Osama bin Laden addressing the French people was released.
• Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's no. 2 man published an audio tape in which he defends the Sunnis against the Shiites.
• The Iraqi “Al-Furqan” institute dedicated a video on the subject of explosive devices to the Mujahideen in the Arabian Peninsula.
• Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula published the fourth issue of the English Jihadi magazine “Inspire”.
• An announcement was made by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb following the revolution in Tunisia.
• The Jihadi forums welcomed the riots in Egypt and surfers called to reinforce the Jihad there.
• A report was issued regarding the death of Dagestan's Deputy Amir, Adam Husseynov Amir Hassan.

or the full Periodical Review: Summary of the Jihadi Forums, The Second Half of January 2011, please click here

No Fly Zone Over Libya

2011-03-01T10:06:00.000-08:00

As the crisis in Libya deepens the pressure on the international community is increasing to intervene and stop the violence taking place against the Libyan people. the latest update is from Britain's David Cameron who is suggesting a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent the Libyan military from firing upon protestors from the sky.

Barak Seener, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Al Jazeera that any UN resolution backing a no-fly zone

would have to demand that the no-fly zone is not open ended and subject to review at certain intervals.

Despite all this and an estimated 1000+ people killed, along with the 140,000 Libyans who are fleeing to cross the border to Tunisia and Egypt, Colonel Gaddafi continues to live in denial claiming that the people love him.

Iran Warships Enter Suez

2011-02-23T04:31:00.000-08:00

A Guest Posting from Ariel Harkham - Co-Founder of the Jewish National Initiative

Yesterday, February 22, two Iranian warships, the Alvand and the Kharg passed through the Suez Canal for the first time in 30 years undisturbed. This naval deployment begins a new era in Israel’s national security strategy.

Israel, with the fall of the Mubarak regime and Cairo’s decision yesterday to provide Iran access to the Mediterranean theatre, no longer has to hold its breath to see what would replace the Mubarak autocracy. Israel is forced to inhale and ingest the toxic winds coming out of Egypt today. This new Egyptian ruling class has sent a loud signal that the 30+ year status quo in Israeli and Egyptians relations has been irrevocably altered. This should be regarded as the opening salvo against the once venerated signed and honored peace treaty by Egypt’s previous governments. That the territories which were gained from such signatures is now used to damage Israeli interests and security instead uphold them is just an outward sign of changing winds. A long held cold peace that has accelerating toward a lethal freeze.

Some in the media have tried to minimize the importance of these new international developments, characterizing them as more Iranian posturing, empty of any real significance. Such sentiment could not be further from the truth. With an Iranian naval presence so close to Israeli shores, posturing has turned into positioning, where Iran is now projecting its force, setting up its pieces not just to effect Israeli internal deliberation, or bolster allies, but to enhance its standing among those state actors now sitting on the fence of Iranian resolve.

The diplomatic overtones of these boats use of the Suez Canal and its presence off the coast of Israel is a victory in the battle of perception. And though Israel also has its boats somewhere near Iranian territory, as it has been reported, Iran doesn’t have an unsympathetic Turkey, buffered by Hezbollah-Syrian aggression to wrestle with in the North, nor does it have an indifferent Egyptian stance amplified by Hamastan to contend with in the South. More clearly, Israel’s fragile security environment plays a direct role in the diplomatic arena; as to who will get involved and who will stay out, who will remain a friend and who will become a foe. Minimizing belligerent symbolism is crucial for Israeli diplomacy, unfortunately with these two warships now entering the fray, the diplomatic conversation has by consequence changed for the worse. This is precisely what Iran desires, changing the perception that Israel is a winner, convincing other that it is not a regional hegemon, but rather a paper tiger. This can only occur by changing the psychology, by inputting a new line of conversation, which can be accomplished by raising the stakes through proxy, speech and now military deployment.

From a military standpoint these boats aren’t little dinghy’s, but quite the contrary. The Kharg has a crew of 250 sailors and can carry up to three helicopters. The Alvand, on the other hand, is armed with torpedos and anti-ship missiles. They will be docking at a Syrian port to coordinate with its ally, it will sail proudly in the Mediterranean intimidating Israeli shipping and trade, and is a possible intelligence threat, camouflaged to eavesdrop on Israeli signals and be used for electronic warfare.

Iranian boats in collusion with a new Egyptian regime are now sailing in the Mediterranean changes Israel’s threat assessment for the worse. The ramifications of this development abound, escalating a conflict to ever greater heights of danger. Yesterday’s Suez crossing is sure to be considered by future historians as Iran’s crossing of the Rubicon in its race towards war with the Jewish State.

Libya Human Rights Abuse - The UN Stays Silent

2011-02-22T11:54:00.000-08:00

In the past 5 years the UN human Rights Council has passed 50 resolutions, 35 of them against Israel. Despite the ongoing and horrific human rights abuses that have taken place in Libya and continue to do so at an alarming rate during during the recent uprisings in Libya, not 1 resolution has been passed by the Council against the state nor has there been a whisper of the suggestion of calling an emergency session of the council regarding the current horrors taking place in Libya today. The UN surely has double standards.

Revolution in Egypt Continued...

2011-02-17T10:01:00.000-08:00

With Egypt being out of the media spotlight for about a week since the demonstrations in Tahrir Square resulted in successfully removing President Mubarak from power, it would be a mistake to think that all is fine and the transition to a functioning democracy there will be clear. Indeed, quite the opposite and furthermore are what lie ahead as far as Israel's strategic and defence policies are concerned.

It is important to remember that the revolution in Egypt is not yet a democratic one for since the assassination of President Anwar Sadat in 1981, Egypt had been ruled under emergency legislation that gave a large amount of power to its military, and continues to do so post-Mubarak under Defence Minister mohammed Hussein Tantawi. The stage at the moment is a difficult one in which a transitional government will need to be set up that will handle the overseeing of new elections and constitutional reform.

It is not clear at all however how all this will pan out in practice for the current system has provided the ruling military elite with high powers that favour them financially as they also dominate over economic policy. One of the key demands of the demonstrators was to address this bias to favour economic improvements for the people. As a result, there will continue to be this tension between the people and the military even now that Mubarak has been deposed and how this tension is resolved remains to be seen.

For Israel, the removal of governments on its borders has been seen twice before: in Lebanon and in Gaza. In both cases the vacuum was filled by radical forces in the shape of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. There are fears by many in Israel that the same will occur in Egypt where the long-time opposition of Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood, is waiting in the wings and biding their time to make their move to power. Although the people of Egypt and the government controlled media have continued to be highly intolerant and hateful towards Israel and Jews in general, President Mubarak, supported by the US, was good to his word in upholding the 1979 Peace Treaty between Egypt and Israel and changed the conflict from an existential threat to Israel, to one of a manageable dispute. As the US will be conituing to support Egypt in these uncertain times, it is unlikely that this peace treaty is about to be ripped up anytime soon though in the long run there are many in Israel who are nervous about who exactly will come to power in Cairo and what their foreign policies might be. furthermore, as the people themselves are anti-Israel, even the secular leaders, out to win votes when election time comes, will be trying to gain popularity by reflecting the people's thoughts and speaking out against Israel.

Egypt under Mubarak, a kind of western ally, was also a staunch anti-Iran advocate who cooperated in preventing the spread of influence from the terrorist state in the region. There will be too much domestic tenstion and pressure coming up in the next few months for Egypt to be concerned as much as it was in regional Arab affairs including the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks which have all but dried up in recent weeks. With Mubarak gone and Egypt still in a state of turmoil, Iran has already begun flexing its muscle today by sending a warship through the Suez canal, something that has not been attempted in over 30 years. It was only due to Israel's objection of it being a clear provocation that the boat was turned around. Although Egypt's peace treaty will hold for now, in the short term there is a real risk of a relaxing of the security around the Sinai/Gaza border at Rafah where arms are attempted to be smuggled through on a daily basis. Indeed, there have already been reports of increased activity on the border and Israel also fears that its gas supply from Egypt will also be cut off.

Israel has enjoyed large benefits from its treaty with Egypt including economic growth resulting from the cuts in defence budget for the past 30 years. It is far from certain what its strategy should be going forward as it finds itself in its most precarious position in the region since its War of Independence.

Riots in the Middle East

2011-02-16T10:54:00.000-08:00

Following the revolution in Egypt it came as no surprise that the people of other Arab states would shortly follow. First it was Yemen and Jordan, and now Libya and Bahrain. Let us understand a little more however about who is behind each protest and why they are protesting.

Beginning in Tunisia when Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire on December 17th 2010, due to a deep feeling of social humiliation that the nation strongly related to, demonstrators protested against the rule of President Ben Ali who, after the death of 50 demonstrators, finally fled the country as the army stood aside and let the people drive him out. Prime Minister Mohammed Channouchi stood in as interim leader though was soon deposed by demonstrators who put their leader, Fouad Mebazaa, in his place. The reasons for the demonstrations are ones that we will see repeated over and over again below, though in Tunisia's case the revolution was lead by a rising middle class who have become highly educated and organised enough to create such a revolt. With Tunisians seeing themselves less as Arabs and more as Mediterraneans who have travelled to Turkey, Spain and Greece, it was not hard for them to feel cheated out of the standard of living enjoyed in Europe but not in Tunisia.

Neighbouring Tunisia is Algeria which also saw a wave of riots as the wave of unrest spilled over due to a sharp increase in food prices and high unemployment rates being the top of the iceberg on top of the poor living conditions, low housing supply and government corruption. Algeria has had constant rioting for the past 20 years however with barely a week going by without a protest taking place in some part of the country about the way the government insists on badly treating its people and ignoring its demands. The difference in this wave of protest however is that the people have come together as a national community and psyche in an impressive show of universal demonstration and force. For more on Algerian history and background to the riots, click here.. For a full history of the Maghreb, click here.

Moving to Jordan, the protests have been coming mainly from the Beduin tribes which are traditionally the backbone of support to the Hashemite monarchy. They have had enough however in the lavish spendings of the Jordanian monarchy while the poor amongst the population go hungry. Many in the army and security services though also come from the same Beduin background that make up the demonstrators, thus potentially leading to a full scale mutiny against the Jordanian authorities. The Muslim Brotherhood and the large Palestinian sector of the country (roughly 70%) are however remaining silent and instead are biding their time for when the first real cracks will begin to appear and then make their move.

The story in Yemen is similar with the people demonstrating against President Saleh's 32 year rule and government corruption, inefficient public spending while the country's people live in poverty (Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world with over half the population living on less than $2 a day and with oil, its main source of income, possibly drying up within a decade the poverty would get even worse) and lack of political freedoms. As a result of the poverty stricken neighbourhoods and a lack of security policy or practice, Yemen has become a haven for Al-Qaida and the recruitment of young terrorists.

And now in Bahrain, with a 3rd protester having been killed, the government is under pressure to end the riots as quickly and harmlessly as possible. the government has been incredibly heavy handed in its treatment of the demonstrators and continues to be so in order to stamp out the wave of unrest.

Clearly Arab regimes in the region are nervous about their own populations' desire to uprise as seen by Syria bolstering its security forces who have been put on high alert should the unrest spread, as it has done already in its patron state, Iran. It seems that for now there will not be any more toppling of governments on the scale we have seen in Tunisia and Egypt, but for sure the recent and ongoing uprisings will have had a long term affect on the region and on the Arab psyche as a whole.

Jihadi Forums - Review

2011-02-16T10:50:00.001-08:00

For the latest review of what's going on in the Jihadi Forums, click here.