mark's market

thursday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 01:24:00 +0000

The March SP exploded to the upside Wednesday as the rally I was looking for came through. I expect a smaller range day Thursday, as we consolidate the large move higher. I will be watching the reaction to 1329.75, which was last Thursday's swing high and also R1. If we don't trade above it tomorrow I would argue we are topping out. The Russell 2000 March futures which have been leading with the NASDAQ look ripe for a pullback. I expect the Russell to under-perform over the next few days and roll over to the downside modestly.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1316.75
S2 1306.75
S3 1293.5

R1 1330
R2 1340
R3 1353.25

wednesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 01:43:00 +0000

The March SP traded down to 1302.25, as 1300 held once again. We continue to be rangebound 1300-1340. I expect the market to rally Wednesday for 2 reasons. First, 1300 has proven it has been support, and after 2 straight days of morning weakness only to rally, the upside will likely be tested. And secondly, it is the 1st of the month which usually has a positive bias. If we re-test 1300 again, it is increasingly likely we break lower and head towards 1289.25. I don't see that happening just yet.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1301.25
S2 1294
S3 1286

R1 1309.25
R2 1316.5
R3 1324.5

tuesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:43:00 +0000

It should come as no surprise that 1300 held on the March SP, even though we traded through it briefly. The NASDAQ March futures also tested the key 2434-36 level and held, leading the rally after 10am. Finally, the Euro also did reverse by more than a penny from the key 132.17-132.36 zone. These technical levels are important and were dead on. I still expect 1300 to be support for the SP and would buy dips as we should test that level once again as we remain range-locked 1300-1340.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1306.5
S2 1298.5
S3 1288

R1 1317
R2 1325
R3 1335.5

monday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 21:41:00 +0000

The March SP had a narrow range Friday and remains above the 1300 level which is key support. I think the NASDAQ will again be the leader this week, and as long as 2434-36 holds to the downside any pullback should be bought. The Euro rally from lows (126.27) looks like it should begin to roll over to the downside soon also as 132.17-132.36 is a key reversal zone and we traded that area Friday.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1306.5
S2 1300.75
S3 1294.25

R1 1313
R2 1318.75
R3 1325.25

friday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 02:43:00 +0000

The market put in a reversal lower Thursday which was a long time coming. Since the market is running overbought this was expected. I think the new trading range on the March SP will be 1300-1340 in the coming days, which more sideways action as we work off our overbought condition.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1306.5
S2 1297.5
S3 1286

R1 1318
R2 1327
R3 1338.5

thursday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 03:13:00 +0000

The March SP sold off in the morning and then took off to the upside at 11:30 with the FOMC announcement of rates "lower for longer". I did some research and saw the NASDAQ emini future is the highest in years, eclipsing the old high 2435.50 from last July. I am thinking that the NASDAQ is breaking out to the upside, and that the SP may be getting dragged with it, since every dip keeps getting bought. Until the NASDAQ breaks 2435.50 on a closing basis I don't see a real break in the March SP coming. In fact, 1300 now looks like solid support based on the last few days of trading.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1313
S2 1301.5
S3 1291.25

R1 1323.25
R2 1334.75
R3 1345

wednesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 03:12:00 +0000

The March SP continues the pattern of shrugging off weakness, once again finishing in the green. I thought a close below 1305 would confirm a short-term top in, but that didn't happen. It appears the market will consolidate further although odds still favor a reversal from the 1310-1315 zone. We are trading higher on state of the union and AAPL earnings this evening.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1308.25
S2 1304.75
S3 1298

R1 1315
R2 1318.5
R3 1325.25

tuesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 01:15:00 +0000

The March SP traded up in the 1310-1315 zone again today only to reverse around 10am. We had some weakness but managed to close up again on the day ever so slightly. The market continues to act well, but the upside still is stretched so we should have more consolidation days like today, or mild pullbacks. I would not be surprised if the market put in a short-term top Monday. A close below 1305 would confirm that view on Tuesday.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1304.5
S2 1298.25
S3 1291.25

R1 1311.5
R2 1317.75
R3 1324.75

monday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 20:30:00 +0000

The March SP continues to move higher and close near the upper end of its daily trading ranges which is quite surprising. The e-mini has only been down once this year, last Friday the 13th. The market still is too stretched to the upside to get any new upside going, especially with resistance in the 1310-1315 zone. Scaling into shorts over the next few days should provide some good covers when volatility comes back. Volume also has been light which is a red flag.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1309
S2 1306.5
S3 1302

R1 1313.5
R2 1316
R3 1320.5

friday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 04:47:00 +0000

The March SP traded the 1310-1315 zone and did meet some resistance, esp at R1 1309. I still am looking for the market to begin to roll over to the downside shortly as we continue to run overbought. A "sell the news" reaction to what seems to be decent earnings is likely in the cards.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1307
S2 1302.75
S3 1294.75

R1 1315
R2 1319.25
R3 1327.25

thursday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 02:32:00 +0000

The March SP made it back over 1300 but now has an RSI reading of 68.15, levels usually associated with short-term tops. The signal may be early, but I expect a top within the next 3 days, and am growing more cautious. 1310-1315 should contain the upside, and are good places to sell to anticipate a reversal. I would not be surprised to see the market get turned down from that level, especially since we are overbought and up over 4% this month (not even 3 weeks in) alone.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1297.5
S2 1291
S3 1279.5

R1 1309
R2 1315.5
R3 1327

wednesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 02:36:00 +0000

The March SP opened higher but quickly faded, as this is the 3rd time we traded the 1295-1297.50 zone or higher only to reverse and close lower. We still are stuck in are 1280-1295 range. This reversal from 1300 likely means a bit more downside before we work off our overbought condition and make another run at 1300.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1279.5
S2 1269.75
S3 1258.25

R1 1291
R2 1300.75
R3 1312.25

tuesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 20:18:00 +0000

The March SP traded in a range 1281.25-1292.25 with a 1291.50 close in the light session Monday. My levels do not change as I don't count Monday as a "true" trading day since US markets are closed. The main takeaway is that 1280 continues to hold.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1285.5
S2 1276.25
S3 1263.25

R1 1298.5
R2 1307.75
R3 1320.75

monday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 13:14:00 +0000

US stock market indexes are closed Monday but the futures will still trade Sunday night. After Friday's news of the downgrades of many EU countries debt ratings, one would think the market may continue to be under pressure, but I am not so sure. The news was expected for some months, and we managed to rally up sharply in the final hour. 1280 is the line in the sand for this breakout, and it has held 3 times on a re-test. To the upside it appears we could be topping as we cannot sustain 1295-1297.50, as twice we have reversed lower after trading those levels. Our new range is 1280-1295 until further notice, but a close below 1280 would be a blow to the bulls. Conversely a close over 1295 should open the door to 1310-1315. While Monday should give more clues I would not be surprised to see us continue to break higher despite all the negative headlines.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1	1285.5
S2	1276.25
S3	1263.25

R1	1298.5
R2	1307.75
R3	1320.75

friday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 04:47:00 +0000

The March SP opened higher, quickly reversed on the 730am number, but still managed to claw back and finish slightly higher. The trend is up until we see a more overbought scenario, or a intraday reversal that puts us closing near the lows of the day.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1290
S2 1282.5
S3 1273.25

R1 1299.25
R2 1306.75
R3 1316

thursday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 03:24:00 +0000

The March SP did trade the 1278-1280 level (1279.25 low) as expected and held, suggesting this breakout to the upside is for real. I am thinking that dips should be bought for now until we see more topping action. The market continues its perfect streak of being up/unchanged every day this year.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1285.75
S2 1281.75
S3 1275.5

R1 1292
R2 1296
R3 1302.25

wednesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 01:45:00 +0000

The March SP broke out of its 1250-1280 trading range to the upside as expected but volume was not that great. We are now getting slightly overbought, so odds favor re-testing the 1278-1280 level sometime Wednesday to see if this move up is legit. We traded above the Oct 27th high of 1289.25 and have the highest close since July 29th.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1284.25
S2 1276.25
S3 1266.75

R1 1293.75
R2 1301.75
R3 1311.25

tuesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 03:16:00 +0000

The March SP continues to do little but has quietly closed up or flat every day this year (5 times). We still remain range bound 1250-1280, but it appears only a matter of time before we break out to the upside.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1273.5
S2 1269.25
S3 1263

R1 1279.75
R2 1284
R3 1290.25

monday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:34:00 +0000

Friday's non-farms jobs number was a positive but after a spike up the March SP really didn't get much traction to the upside. We remain range-bound 1250-1280. I was hoping Friday would be the catalyst to break us out to the upside but that fizzled. We are still range-bound and I'd continue to fade the extremes, but still feel we are headed higher after consolidation.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1266.5
S2 1259
S3 1251

R1 1274.5
R2 1282
R3 1290

friday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 01:05:00 +0000

The March SP did get a mild pullback, but we started to rally by 9am. This is 2 days in a row where we have seen morning weakness only to rally all the way back. While I am still cautious about the downside it appears the market wants to trade higher, so that's what I expect tomorrow on the non-farms number. The last 3 closes are 1272, 1273, and 1273. We are going to move, and odds favor that move up, regardless of number. Many expect it to disappoint so the stage is set for a rally and the action agrees. Resistance is at 1289, which is around R2. I want to sell that level aggressively.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1270.25
S2 1262.5
S3 1252

R1 1280.75
R2 1288.5
R3 1299

thursday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 13:30:00 +0000

The March SP had a 12-pt trading rage which again was relatively tight. I still feel the risk remains to the downside as volume has been light. I would not be surprised to see us work our way lower in the coming days, but 1250 should be the next buying opportunity.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1270.25
S2 1265.5
S3 1258.25

R1 1277.5
R2 1282.25
R3 1289.5

wednesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 00:33:00 +0000

The March SP gapped higher Tuesday but closed off its high. The upside should be capped at 1285, and I would be positioned short for atleast a few days should we trade their tomorrow. Given the 20 pt gap up odds favor a pullback, especially since volume was light. Iran rhetoric over their military presence in the Gulf is worth watching, as it added a pop to crude oil. Given the last few trading days had 10-point ranges we are due for a reversion to the mean of 17-points sooner than later. I would def sell rallies tomorrow, esp near 1285. The VIX seems to have support at 24 which broke the last few weeks of 2011, so I expect us to test that soon, which would coincide with a mild pull-back.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1268.25
S2 1264.25
S3 1258.5

R1 1274
R2 1278
R3 1283.75

tuesday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 18:16:00 +0000

The first day of the New Year usually has a positive bias, and I expect no different. Europe was up pretty good Monday with us closed, so I anticipate that is what is in store for us Tuesday. The levels are stacked a bit closely again, so I would put more confidence in 1264.25 and 1268.25 as resistance, but keep in mind light volume could drive us much higher if we do rally, so don't be too early selling.

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1	1248.75
S2	1244.75
S3	1239

R1	1254.5
R2	1258.5
R3	1264.25

monday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 18:14:00 +0000

Happy New Year! US markets are closed today. I will be back later with an update.

friday watch

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 01:12:00 +0000

Last day of the year...may get a last hour sell-off only to possibly mark-up when we re-open Tuesday. I don't expect much, but 1253 (unch for 2011) should be pretty well defended. It also happens to be S1. Have a good new year!

-mark

ESH2 (MARCH)
DAILY
S1 1253.25
S2 1248
S3 1238.5

R1 1262.75
R2 1268
R3 1277.5