DowJonesTrader

Major Index Work on 200-Day Moving Average

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Fri, 16 May 2008 06:16:00 +0000

The U.S. markets pulled in modestly from major resistance with a late-day reversal Wednesday, and on Thursday, it seemed to re-attempt the upward trek once again. However the Dow Jones Industrials closed the day just shy of 13,000 at 12,992.66.

Perhaps most obviously, each index continues to work on its 200-day moving average as detailed here repeatedly. This may be Bullish news leading on a possible road to recovery. Yet, along with those 200-days, round-number resistance is coming into play at Dow 13,000, Nasdaq 2,500 and S&P 1,400. Each benchmark has held tightly to these areas throughout May, improving the chances of an eventual breakout. The next few days and weeks will tell the facts.

On a sour note, while we were close to hitting the 'eject' button on AIG as it recently came close to violating our DJTP -6% SELL 'Rule', thanks to more bad credit news we got our heads handed over to us with no-time to react as the stock plummeted -9% overnight, and therefore we are kicking it out of our holdings...

Asides from that, our latest flurry of BUYS in the last 4 to 8 weeks, (which now makes up 18 holdings of our DJT Portfolio), is doing and holding up just fine.

Here is a look at our DJTP performance Year To Date vs. the major stock market benchmarks and index:

DJTP.....+7.74%

SP500.....-3.05%

DOW......-3.26%

NASD......-4.47%

April Showers? ... or Bull?!

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 06:05:00 +0000

We purchased the following companies based on the MACD indicator and "volume+" which flashed a 'BUY':

BA .... $85.40
HD .....$30
MCD .. $58
UTX....$71

Dow Crumbling at 11,980, And We Are Buying In Our DJTP?!

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 03:38:00 +0000

In only a few words;

"Don't fight the Fed" and "Follow the Trend".

... Because that is all we do here!

Though the 'Financials' are certainly not out of the woods yet, conviction continues as we can only follow the technical indicators here with our DJTP, and we have purchased the following companies whereby the MACD indicator and "volume+" flashed a 'BUY':

AXP ...$45
C ......$24
CVX ...$89
GE .....$33
INTC ..$21.70
JNJ ....$65.50
3M ....$80
T ......$37

Chevron (CVX) and Bank of America (BAC) were recently added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and will now be tracked from here on out in our DJTP.

No 'Conventional Wisdom' and Plenty of 'Technical Conviction' Equals "New Buys!"

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 01:31:00 +0000

In this Bear Market, new conviction has finally surfaced as some stocks bounce off 'older' major support levels, thus we have purchased the following companies whereby the MACD indicator and "volume+" flashed a 'BUY':

AA ....$33.50
AIG ...$48
CAT ...$71
DD ....$45
DIS... $30.60
IBM... $107

On the flip side, we have a 'SELL' on the following stocks:

KO
MO
MSFT
PFE

Notes:
Pfizer (PFE) simply is breaking down lower since December 2007, and finally hit our -6% 'STOP'... Meanwhile, Altria (MO) also best known as 'Big-MO' (which we held in our DJT portfolio since 3/30/07 for a +18% profit, and it's now time to let it go), will spin-off the Philip Morris division into a new company called Philip Morris International (Symbol PM) .

On that note and more importantly as it relates to our DOW JONES TRADER PORTFOLIO, this upcoming February 19, 2008 a change of the Dow 30 components will occur as Altria Group (MO) and Honeywell (HON) will be replaced by Chevron (CVX) and Bank of America (BAC).

... and until next time, we keep on following "The Big Money".

It's 2008 And The "R" Word Is "In" On Wall Street!

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 18:54:00 +0000

IT'S BARELY THE new year, and already conventional wisdom seems to be shifting under many feet on Wall Street. This year, the conventional wisdom doesn't seem to have much conviction. Investors are still shaken by the real estate, mortgage and credit crises which dampened 2007 and continue to roil markets this year.

Just a couple of weeks ago, with revelers ringing in the new year, many pundits were saying there would and wouldn't be a recession in 2008.

Then stocks went into a nose dive, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging more than -800 points from December 31, 2007 through January 9, 2008. The catalyst for this specific reactive stock market down pull, is based on on the latest figures illustrating a sharp drop in employment. This, is a fact and a significant piece of data which needs to be seriously considered for re-aligning any stock portfolio (unlike the millions of other useless shock-headlines derived by the financial talking heads speculating tea leaves). Furthermore, the Dow Jones Averages are now testing support levels and only the markets will advise us if we go lower from here. (See Chart)

So let's cut through the chase ... what is a small stock investor to do in 2008?

Solely based on the essence of this blog, the answer is no different than what has been done for 2007; That is to, "Follow The Big Money Trend".

Based on the facts, we know this:

(1) Oil and commodity prices remain sky high.

(2) Dow Stocks with maximum exposure overseas will do well
Yes, that is the fact. Emerging markets have de-coupled from the U.S. and won't be affected as much by a slowing U.S. economy. Most are now at record multiples compared to U.S. and European stocks. This disparity will not persist indefinitely.

(3) Defensive sectors like consumer durables and health care will outperform growth sectors such as technology and manufacturing.

Especially during the first half of the year. But as interest rate cuts begin to be felt, one can expect technology and even battered financial shares will rebound by the end of the year and at some point, will offer compelling opportunities.

(4) The real estate collapse will stabilize, and overall markets will begin to improve.
(But when? The answer is, "No one knows!" ... and without the facts, we're not going there!)
However, we can agree prices won't fall forever - Like everything else in the financial world, real estate "booms and busts" are clearly trends and always cyclical. Until we see some hard evidence a recovery is underway, only then would it be prudent to speculate with the odds in our favor, period. (... umm, Our crystal ball says it could be this year, 2009 or in 2015!)

(5) The current "Big Money Trend" for individual Dow 30 stocks is as follows:

All are in a "DOWN" Trend, with the exception of the following still maintaining an "UP" Trend and still considered a "BUY":

MRK

PFE

WMT

*** The Following Stocks BEGAN their DOWN Trend in Our DJTP and Are a SELL ***

INTC

MCD
PG

* DJT Portfolio Closes 2007 Year Up +27.3% *

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 05:37:00 +0000

Happy New Year!

Well, here we are ... Another calendar year gone by, one more Dom Pérignon champagne cork has popped and we now begin to ponder what 2008 may bring.

While 2007 ended on an mediocre note for many stock portfolios, our DeanJonesTrader Portfolio (DJTP) closed up +27.3% for the 2007 Year!

There is no place for feelings on Wall Street or in stock investing but we will admit, on this New Year's Day it feels reeeeal good knowing the DJTP crushed the major Index and benchmark averages for the 2007 year! Here is a look at the facts and the final hard numbers for 2007 in comparing our yearly performance to the major stock market benchmarks and index:

SP500.....+3.7%
DOW......+6.3%
NASD......+9.5%
DJTP....+27.3%

Looking back on 2007
It is interesting to note our DJTP moved up consistently throughout the course of the year (as illustrated in the 52 week chart shown below). However, the months of May and June 2007 were critical for setting the stage. We locked-in profits from several gains, but more importantly, we shed all financial stocks from the portfolio (AXP, AIG, C, JPM), and furthermore loaded up on the defensive stocks (KO, PG, MCD, MO, XOM) still a prevailing momentum trend upholding our gains today.

As the whipsawed markets of recent months have rattled shareholders and shattered a lengthy period of unusual market calm, our DJTP moved up only +2.74% in the last quarter of 2007 (while the S&P 500 was down -4.63%), but we'll gladly take the +27.3% profits for the year, as is! (For trivial purposes, our DJTP hit an all time year-high of +30.3% on Friday, December 7, 2007).

... Okay, now enough with the celebrating!

"Lessons learned" in 2007
One can say history does repeat itself. As expressed in our "Mission Statement" where we state a "rule" of sorts; CUT your LOSERS short, and let the WINNERS RUN --- can never be overemphasized. The one single and most costly mistake made in our DJT Portfolio was to prematurely dive back into the financials once again (AIG and C in particular), which took down our portfolio value significantly single handily.

In July 2007, our DJTP had already recorded a +25% new high for the year(!) Ironically, we had preserved gains and locked in some profits back in June/July 2007 based on that "rule", at the same time when the entire sector flashed a strong sell as the subprime-mortgage fiasco became ever more public. (See ‘sells’ for AIG, AXP, C and JPM on Friday June 15, 2007) ... However, we hesitated to sell in the second go-around, and it cost us a few percentage points.

Rising volatility is nothing new on Wall Street and is typically a signal that new market leadership is emerging. While volatility creates opportunity, you don't necessarily need to overhaul your investment plan. More often than not, making small, tactical shifts to a properly allocated portfolio can position you for a changing market climate.

This approach seemed to have worked for 2007.

Below are details on the current DJTP... and a great 2008 to all!

DJT Portfolio Holdings as of 12/31/07
(click on image below to enlarge)

DJTP vs. S&P500 Yearly Gains Chart - 12/31/07
(click on image below to enlarge)

... And the Winner for Best 2007 Quote on "Financial Wisdom":

"As we enter 2008, the mood remains focused on serious economic confusion."

- Al Goldman, Chief market strategist at AG Edwards

(... umm, this from a financial professional? I am entertained and mortified at the same time)

*** We also would like to take this opportunity to thank all you readers for your continued support. We are excited to have successfully completed our first year and pleasantly surprised the DeanJonesTrader Portfolio (DJTP) surpassed all major benchmark indexes, in profits and gains by a wide margin. To think of it this was accomplished with only investing in 30 boring stocks makes it even more enlightening! And as for the year ahead and our investment philosophy? We plan to change absolutely ... nothing! As mentioned before, "It's the end-of-the-world" useless forecasts and time consuming predictions by many financial professionals will continue to be professed in 2008. But don't let the financial gurus with the crusty crystal balls mislead you as they attempt to mis-lead the masses. The truth is that whether in good economies or not, money can be made on momentum trends, and the numbers are the facts ... and "forecasts and predictions" are ... just that!

Happy New Year!***

Pre-Christmas Stock Portfolio Clean-Up

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Fri, 14 Dec 2007 05:36:00 +0000

SELLS

American Express Company (AXP)

BUYS

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)

American Express Company (AXP) had resurfaced in the black for sometime since we established a BUY position, but has now reached our -5% sell-stop (several times) and simply put, the stock seems entangled with the entire financial group debacle to really make any real profitable headway for us here. We will use our cash from this sell to establish a new BUY position in the following stock experiencing a pullback... Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM).

This may be another opportunity to increase our holdings in oil since selling half of our position in the middle of the 2007 year to protect our gains. Momentum may have returned for the entire oil sector and additionaly XOM pays out a nice dividend to all shareholders as we continue to hold this stock.

XOM is a BUY and we are adding 109 shares, at the purchase cost of $91.00 per share ($10,000 total) to the existing 70 shares we already have.

Our Defensive Stocks Ruled in November

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Tue, 04 Dec 2007 06:40:00 +0000

... and the Dean Jones Trader portfolio (DJT) is flirting with new highs for the year thus far. (See Portfolio Details Below).

Suffice to say our defensive stocks not only ruled our portfolio in November, but they continue to ensure we can hold onto our gains as we approach the end of the 2007 calendar year!

Our biggest downfall remains the false entry point in buying the financials, (AIG & C) and also DIS and GE prematurely. As advised in the November 10, 2007 blog, we have cut our losses in all of these positions, and we will continue to monitor our current holdings which seem to be holding up just fine. Some positions however may be over-extended and we will lock-in some profits.

That said, it seems prudent to continue to hold our defensive stocks, especially since the latest gauge of manufacturing activity (U.S. FACTORY INDEX) fell slightly, confirming a possible slowing economic trend given it was the fifth consecutive drop. These facts are real, and frankly, are more cause for concern than the latest isolated sub-prime crisis the media seems to be solely stuck on emotionally reporting. BOTTOM LINE: If productivity drops, so will earnings, and subsequently the value of many stocks.

On most recent portfolio news, doubling up on Altria/ Philip Morris (MO) has paid off, and so has the ongoing holding of KO, MCD, and PG.

(See below for complete DJT portfolio holdings).

Wall Street Stampede

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 01:33:00 +0000

... Stampede of stock buyers that is.

The Dow has the biggest single-day gain in eight weeks, and the "Best Bullish Day of Year on NASDAQ since April 2003"...

You don't say?!

These are the new headlines in the media suddenly today... Just yesterday, the media exclaimed investors should be extremely concerned about the future direction of the stock market, and furthermore confirmed a market crash and a recession is now imminent (... they forgot to add the end of the world is near and there's a sale at Macy's!)

For some perspective on the latest stock market action, the chart below presents the FACTS -- The current trend of the S&P 500. The recent decline in the S&P 500 has been relatively sharp, BUT the S&P 500 remains within its five-year trend channel, and support (green line) is being tested.

Where we will go from here is not clear yet. BUT the fact is the DOW was up +320 points today alone on high volume, and that said we'll go out on a limb and state we believe to be another day away (further) from the upcoming Stock Market Crash! ... (To see what a real Bear Market looks like, simply look at the time period from 2000-2003 in the chart below). Nothing has changed since June 2007 of this year, when the financials met Pandora's Box for the first time.

For now, we prefer to call this simply a time of ... "froth removal from the party punch bowl"... or if you prefer, a pre-Christmas house cleaning before Grandma and the reindeer come home for the end of 2007 year holiday market rally -- hopefully to empty the rest of the punch bowl.

And if the facts are just too plain boring and you prefer dark drama instead of "what ifs", then we recommend the following 11/12/07 dissertation by Bill Fleckenstein a good read. Like a good ole generic Hollywood thriller, how can one simply pass up reading a blockbuster title like, "The Stage is set for a stock crash".

Too bad this article wasn't published on Halloween!

... Can you go short on Pop Corn?

DJT Portfolio Surges Above +25% Gains

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 00:01:00 +0000

... Goldman Sachs Offsets Wall Street Worries and our DJT Portfolio surges upwards above +25% gains year to date once again.

(See below for complete portfolio positions)

Note: Given the recent rally in the financial stocks from their lows last week, we have not sold off our positions in C and AIG. Interesting to note also, AXP has resurfaced in the black and we have gains somewhat once again. Stay tuned for any updates.

Stock Market Gyrating Machine Eating Our ...

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Sat, 10 Nov 2007 19:43:00 +0000

... Gains.

It seems there was no place to hide this past week unless you were invested in .... not sure really, I have to research that!

Markets are gyrating with greater force as buyers and sellers attempt to digest rising oil prices, a weak dollar, and consumer sentiment more pessimistic than it's been in years. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the centralbank is concerned about both inflation and recession. Stock market volatility is nothing new, but we all seem to forget when euphoric new highs are being formed and everyone is practically falling over themselves by the party punch-bowl.

As of yesterday (Friday) the Dean Jones Trader Portfolio (DJT) was no exception in becoming another victim to the mad Wall Street free-fall. Just one month ago we were sitting on +28% gains for the year. Today we are fortunate our DJT remains up +21% based on realized gains established in the first half of the year.

Thanks mainly to our premature financial positions we eagerly established back in October with Citigroup (C), and American International Group (AIG), (which seemed to have formed a short term base at the time and a buying opportunity), it further proves you simply have to cut your losses no matter what. In a (DJT) back-study over time, it became evident that using a -6% "sell rule" seems to be the threshold in keeping gains in tact and losers out from possibly further deteriorating a portfolio.

That said, come Monday the following stocks would need to be SOLD:

AIG
C
DIS
GE

(Side Note: Plain sloppiness or lack of time, is no excuse for mediocre management of what should be a fine tuned stock portfolio, but I personally have a darn good excuse for being M.I.A. in the last few weeks -- negotiating the purchase for a new California home at -30% below last year's selling price, is quite the dramatic event in this sub-prime age of frenzy. Now that's a whole other market and story for other blogs to rationalize!)

In the last post we established a BUY in Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), which by the way never made it in our overall portfolio screen shot(!) since it was SOLD within 10 days following a quick reversal and downtrend.

Last month we also increased our BUY position in Altria Group (MO), (which I still prefer to call Philip Morris, or as the Street calls them; 'Big -MO'). The stock is clearly enjoying support in this time of market turmoil, as it is a defensive play and best of all, it also pays a fat dividend to boot.

(... or is it P-H-A-T?!)

Dow Jones Industrial Averages & Global Markets "Flexing Muscle”

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 18:38:00 +0000

... These were the new financial headlines this morning - by the same "financial professionals" when exactly one entire day prior, (yes, yesterday/ 24 hours ago) they exclaimed, "Stock Market Outlook Gloomy", "Recession and Correction Near", "The Fed May Lower Rates" (huh? what's the other 50% of the probability forecast?!) etc, etc ... With the similar impulsiveness we simply respond, "Drink ethanol and let solar shine!"

Forget the fair-weather zealots' headlines. Rely only on the facts, whether the trend is currently up or down, and starting today we'd rather focus on Earnings Season which are currently underway. This is the catalyst that will determine the market's direction and where individual stocks really go next.

On that note and speaking of facts, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc (WMT) the world's largest retailer, was one of the first DOW components on Thursday to report earnings. Plainly put, they were somewhat favorable and furthermore WMT has increased its profit outlook lifting market optimism about its earnings. The stock seems to have found a bottom at approximately $42 and seems to have reversed from a previous down trend since mid September. All that said, we're BUYING it here.

We continue to stand by the statement made in our DeanJonesTrader blog back on September 13th (days before the Fed lowered rates), and we are also BUYING here the following for our Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJT):

AIG - American International Group, Inc

DIS - Walt Disney Company

PFE - Pfizer Inc

WMT - Wal-Mart Stores, Inc

Click below to enlarge and view current Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJT) positions:

DJT Portfolio Up +27% YTD

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 10:00:00 +0000

Third Quarter Report Card

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Mon, 01 Oct 2007 12:38:00 +0000

Hard to believe we are entering the last quarter of 2007. While the major financial headlines are back to flashing, "Investors Ponder the Fed's Next Move", and professional financial managers are making cerebral statements such as, "We're trying to read the tea leaves of what they're going to do on Halloween" (no joke), we instead will keep this blog honest and simply broadcast the facts with our end of quarter results.

In the third quarter; Dow industrials were up 3.6%, Nasdaq up 3.8%, S&P up 1.5% and our Dean Jones Trader Portfolio edged up 8.3% hitting an overall record high. (See 3-month chart below)

With a sense of relief knowing we remain at +25.4% for the year and following a challenging summer with a Wall Street correction, we can now start focusing on this upcoming 4th and final quarter of 2007.

But prior to doing so I will respond to the several e-mails and questions received which basically ask, "how can this Dean Jones Trader Portfolio be ahead for the summer, after knowing it was the worst past two months on Wall Street since 2002?" ... The answer remains quite simply, because we locked-in some gains by shedding the portfolio from several stocks and particularly all the financial stocks, keeping only the defensive plays while riding out this downward trend. (Furthermore one can also read this blog's previous entries back to June 2007 until present for details).

To highlight this fact, the 3-month performance chart above clearly illustrates that at the time the S & P 500 suffered its second-biggest plunge of the year (second half of July through August), our DJT Portfolio more or less leveled off during the same time period.

Ironically, last month was also the best September on record since 1992. Therefore the question remains, where were all those "professional" tea leaf readers back then?

When Interest Rates Fall, These Go Up +25%

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 00:07:00 +0000

TODAY'S DOW JONES TRADER PORTFOLIO FACT$:

1. Coca-Cola Company (KO) Hit a 52-week high: $57.68

2. Procter & Gamble (PG) Hit a 52-week high: $70.73
3. Our DJT Portfolio hit a new year high at +25.4%

Last Tuesday, we got the biggest buy signal since November 6, 2002. When we received that buy signal, the Dow closed at 8,771. That market trough coincided with the last time the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5%. Since then, the markets have done extremely well and that buy signal kicked off a five year bull market.

... But, while the Dow (overall) has returned a mere +57% since that time, there have been a lot of much better performing stock investments. Two of the best performers since that time were Energy and Health Care. Since the bull market began on October 9, 2002, the FACT is that only 18 of the 500 stocks in the S & P 500 Index have seen their share prices decline during this bull market run.

Can this time be different? Of course it can, but we're betting that long term stocks will rise handsomely and short term we intend to maximize our returns by riding overall market momentum and individual stock trends.

FUN $ FACTS:

The best performing current S&P 500 stock since the bear market began on March 24, 2000 is: XTO Energy (XTO) ... Which leads the top 25 list with a whopping return of over +2,188% ! The worst? ... JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) ... it has fallen over -98.9%.
(We say, "Let bad dogs lie ...")

Fed Cut Rates and We're Up +24.6% ...

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 06:23:00 +0000

While Wall Street hails central bank's decision to cut the fed funds rate by a half-percentage point, we hail to Sam Adams and the ongoing performance of our Dow Jones Trader Portfolio.

That about sums it up! ...

The past several weeks of infinite media speculation and lingering financial analysts reciting crystal balled forecasts in unison all came to an abrupt end at 2:20 PM (EST) ... and like a sling shot, the Dow shot up +335.97 (+2.51%) as the market welcomed the news of the surprise rate cut. On a percentage basis, the Dow added 2.5 percent, its best one-day gain since April 2, 2003, when it gained 2.67 percent.

Last Thursday we did state our indicators pointed to a trend reversal for the first time in awhile, and coincidentally at 2:20 PM today our Dow Jones Trader Portfolio did profit from the Fed's half point decrease with the 4 new positions we purchased.

Additionally, today we also increased our holdings by adding the following two new positions;

American Express Company (AXP) and once again, General Electric Company (GE), which the stock broke-out and just hit a new 52-week high along with PG. Worth noting here, we have now gone from 6 stock holdings to 12 in less than one week.

Below is a complete portfolio list of all our holdings:

YTD % Change:

DJTP ........... +24.6%

S & P 500 ..... + 7.16%

NASDAQ ........+ 9.79%

FUN $ FACT: ... And for shits and grins, when we say ALL "media speculation and lingering financial analysts reciting crystal balled forecasts in unison all came to an abrupt end at 2:20 PM", we really meant that! The charts below illustrate a Wall Street phenomena which is rarely seen ... I guess you can call it "the power of the Fed!"... This Dow 30 snapshot was literally taken less than 30 seconds into the decision announcement to cut the fed funds rate by a half-percentage point...

Sodas, Burgers and Dirty Diapers ... and 4 New Buys

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 20:49:00 +0000

As of Thursday these two blue chip stocks, Coca Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD), were the best one month performers on Wall Street, and meanwhile Procter & Gamble (PG) just hit its 52-week high at $67.72 soon after the ringing of the opening bell.

When we sold off more than half of our portfolio holdings back in early August to protect our profits (from 15 to only 6 stocks!), we kept 2 of the 3 above mentioned companies in our Dow Jones Trader Portfolio, and today we are benefiting from their new record highs with a gain of +22%.

While almost all the financial talking heads and experts have been too busy for sometime debating whether the "Fed" will lower its benchmark rate or not come Tuesday September 18, the "trend" simply kept us invested in what many refer to as the boring defensive stocks ... In other words, the current sub-prime crisis presumes a doomsday scenario where if people continue to lose their homes and land in the streets, chances are they will still consume a $1.00 Big Mac, supersize on a diet Coke, slap-on some shiny white Pampers diaper on their bottomless kid ... and then spark up a Marlboro while fueling up their SUV at the pumping station.

(In case you're wondering, the ticker sequence to this award winning apocalyptic film would be; MCD, KO, PG, MO & XOM)

On a more serious note now … interestingly today, for the first time since early summer 2007 the stock market confirmed a trend reversal for several of the DOW component stocks - shifting from a negative trend to a positive.

Whether this trend reversal is real or setting up to be a fake-out, it remains to be seen. This type of action is personally more interesting than whether come next Tuesday Mr. “Fed” Bernanke will show up in a Disney or Wal-Mart tie. The timing can also prove to be lucrative.

Having said that we now finally commit some of our 50% cash to work in buying some positions.

For now we are establishing positions in:

C - Citigroup, Inc (NYSE)
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson (NYSE)
MCD - McDonald's Corporation (NYSE)
MSFT - Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ GS)

Bulls Charge But Dow Down -10% In One Month

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 02:04:00 +0000

This market can be labeled as a classic textbook "correction". In the recent market sell-off our technicals got us out of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) the same day before the company released earnings at the market's close. Unfortunately the stock rallied the following day (along with all the others in the stock universe!), but until we return to a confirmed rally, capital preservation now rules and prevails over capital appreciation ...

That said we are currently at 50%+ in cash, and our Dow Jones Trader Portfolio today is up +20% for the year. Considering the latest Wall Street stampede, this portfolio's performance provides additional motivation to stay the course as we are well into the second half of the calendar year.

Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJTP) Year To Date % Change as of 8/17/07:

Subsequent to Friday's rally, the Dow Jones Industrials are still off 1,000 points for the same month. It would be entirely in this market's character to follow Friday's euphoria with another fire sale next week or next month ... And as horrible as August has been, historically September is the worst time of the year on Wall Street for average monthly performance.

Got Bull?

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
- Warren Buffett

Wall Street Crumbles and Global Markets Tumble ...

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 13:30:00 +0000

... But the Dean Jones, Dow Jones Trader Portfolio is still in the green, and the essence of this blog is beginning to show it's true colors (no pun).

The blue-chip index's plunge occurred as credit concerns (surprise, surprise) came back to the forefront, and global financial stocks dragged the market lower on continued concerns about the health of the nation's mortgage market and the ability of mortgage lenders to continue to fund their operations and, ... (Someone forgot to mention there is still some good news out there - JC Penney stated 'back to school' sales are strong!)

Where's the market bottom? No one knows. This is a financial liquidity driven crisis and it must play itself out - pure and simple. (By the way, liquidity to individuals is one thing. Liquidity to companies of solid reputation is an entirely different thing. In this new environment the reputable corporations will get stronger and the weak entities will perish - hence the essence of this blog and trading the Dow 30 companies. Someday soon stocks of companies like Citigroup (C), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), etc, will be buys once again for future gains in our Dow Jones Trader Portfolio to profit from).

Probabilities or potential scenarios developing two or three weeks from now, and whether "the Fed" will cut rates or not, is irrelevant to this blog as well. Irregardless of all the drama and current noise of what is being said, the trend of any given stock is all we really care about, and there is no need to spend more time than necessary than to simply understand the current trend.

Here are the FACTS:

The S & P is now DOWN -10% since its high on July 19, 2007, the overall Market Trend is DOWN, and on that note this swift yet relentless market sell-off is now forcing us to further protect our gains. Of the total 12 stock holdings in our portfolio, we are selling our 2 losers, including taking additional profits in 4 of our remaining winning positions which have turned negative.

Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJTP) vs. S&P 500 Index
(3 Month % Change) :

Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJTP) Year To Date % Change as of 8/15/07:

Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJTP) Buy & Sell Log:

YTD % Change:

DJTP ........... +18.8%

S & P 500 ..... - 2.8%

NASDAQ ........ - 0.3%

Side Note: Ironically technology, and more specifically the semiconductors, continue to hold strong here in the recent market sell-off. We will be increasing our position in Intel Corporation (INTC) if the overall market trend will return positive soon.

Wall Street Bears And 13,000 Headless Rubber Chickens

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Wed, 15 Aug 2007 06:03:00 +0000

... Suffering from the Summer heat or Wall Street paralysis by analysis?!

Either way, as we find ourselves in the "eye of the storm" in what many are referring to as the current Wall Street stock market meltdown, there is also an increasing amount of noise generated by the media, augmenting exponentially simply infusing nothing more than ... useless panic.

While it seems natural to be experiencing some of the Wall Street Stock Market Jitters, one can easily fall victim to the "worry trap" and spend countless hours, days, (if not weeks!) just reading and trying to make sense of the latest market financial "news"... only to further cloud one's vision by finding MORE useless layers of infinite doom-and-gloom media reports, digital financial dissertations, etc, all popping-up over the Internet like wild mushrooms in a dark and mildewy basement.

Drama is for Hollywood, not for Wall Street.

The reality and facts are as such;

No one financial "professional" can tell us where the markets will go from here. Therefore, it should be business as usual --- (1) continue to follow the large financial institutional trends (i.e. SELL if warranted), (2) protect your profits and gains, (once again, SELL if warranted), and (3) turn-off all media and ignore the noise (... and go to the beach and enjoy the last few weeks of summer - It will be a wiser and healthier decision).

Note: To enlarge graphics, please 'click' on any image below:

Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJTP) Year To Date % Change as of 8/13/07:

We currently have 12 holdings total;
11 winners with profits and gains
1 stock in the negative ...

Sold All The Large Financials Ahead of Time, We Ride The Bull

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 07:24:00 +0000

Wall Street Tempest or Opportunity?

Last week’s 2-day bounce was short lived as once again renewed fears of potential “subprime spillover” and surging oil prices overshadowed some solid earnings reports. Unfortunately, even though many earnings news are favorable (and should prevail) the change in the winds and trend reversal now leave the Dow Jones Trader Portfolio with one objective… to protect our gains.

Our call to sell all of our large Dow “financials” stocks back in June seemed to be perfectly timed. (See ‘sells’ for AIG, AXP, C and JPM on Friday June 15, 2007 below). Today General Electric (GE) seems to be the last standing pseudo-“financial” stock we are selling to protect any profits. Given the recent shift of overall market trend, we are now quicker to act on locking in on profits and cashing out. We can always easily repurchase the same stocks if necessary when time confirms Wall Street's bullish uptrend has returned.

This volatile market also presents an opportunity for the Dow Jones Trader to sell any weak stock showing trend deterioration, especially discarding any stock which demonstrated an overall anemic performance since the position was established … And note of interest: Thanks to several confirmed consecutive down sessions on Wall Street last week, The Dow Jones Trader Portfolio (DJTP) is finally off margin for the first time this year…

Simply put, “The Trend is Your Friend”. All we continue to do here is follow the same ol' boring rules, which remains the essence of The Dow Jones Trader Portfolio --- that of navigating the trend and piggy-backing on the large institutions ... of course only limiting ourselves to any of the DOW 30 stocks.

As many worry of the current Wall Street tempest to date, the ongoing strong performance of the Dow Jones Trader Portfolio still remains a winner and in the lead, and this fact is the silver lining.

YTD % Change:

DJTP ........... +20.7%
S & P 500 ..... + 1.4%
NASDAQ ....... + 3.9%

See below for the complete Dow Jones Trader Portfolio holdings:

Wall Street Tempest or Opportunity?

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Mon, 06 Aug 2007 02:25:00 +0000

See below for the complete listing of the latest Dow Jones Trader Portfolio stock activity:

Bulls Run, Bears Hide and our DJTP Flies

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 12:23:00 +0000

As many expected a pullback or correction thus far this summer, the Bulls showed who's in charge on Wall Street once again yesterday. (What can I say? In my options portfolio, even yours truly is down on SPY puts).

No matter what all the "professional" talking heads' predictions are (or were), the facts are all we care about. The trend is up and the results (YTD) for the DeanJonesTrader Portfolio (DJTP) in comparison with the other benchmarks remain, shall we say ... "bull-ish".

YTD % Change:

DJTP ...........+26.7%
S & P 500 .... + 6.9%
NASDAQ ..... +11.9%

"Do you wish to gamble blindly in the hope of getting a great big profit, or do you wish to speculate intelligently and get a smaller but more probable profit?"

--- Jesse Livermore

Dean Jones Trader Portfolio (DJTP) Up +23% YTD for The Week Ending July 6, 2007

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 18:52:00 +0000

Here are the latest updates and action taken on each position within the portfolio...

This past 4th of July week marked another bull run for all top performing averages on Wall Street, and especially for our "less flashy" names held in our DJTP. As of writing this morning, the Dean Jones Trader Portfolio is Up +24% YTD ... (Screenshot below is taken from Sunday July 8, 2007 when all markets were closed):

"There is a serious tendency toward capitalism among the well to-do peasants"
--- Mao Tse-Tung

Second Quarter 2007 Results: DJTP Up +13.9% for 3 Months

noreply@blogger.com (DeanJonesTrader) — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 02:53:00 +0000

The Wall Street trading session ending Friday June 29, 2007 marked the end of the Second Quarter for; April - June 2007, and the results for the DeanJonesTrader Portfolio (DJTP) in comparison with the other benchmarks, is illustrated below:

DJTP ............+13.9%
S & P 500 .... + 4.9%
NASDAQ ..... + 6.2%

DJTP vs. S&P 500

DJTP vs. NASDAQ

Off The Beaten Path:
THIS WEEK'S REAL ESTATE STORIES - Here's proof that celebrities are like the rest of us: Even MarthaStewart had to sell below her asking price. The Wall Street Journal reports that she recently sold her estate inWestport, Conn., for $6.7 million, a -26% discount from the asking price.The property was first put on the market last year, for just under $9million.