thetechnicaltake

Popular Strategy to Yield Buy Signal

blueguyzee — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 19:54:41 PST

It has become a popular strategy over the past decade, and it does have some merit, but there are some serious pitfalls. The strategy is to buy the SP500 when prices close above the simple 10 month moving average; the sell signal is a monthly closing price below the simple 10 month moving average. In [...]

Interesting Article

blueguyzee — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 13:16:10 PST

A very concise article from the always very verbose, but insightful Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital. Schiff touches on several of the issues that have crept on to my radar screen in the past several days. On the Dollar, Schiff states: “With its announcement today that it will keep interest rates near zero at [...]

TLT: Topped Out

blueguyzee — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:26:45 PST

The last time I looked at the i-Shares Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Bond Fund (symbol: TLT) was on December 13, 2011, and I wrote the article, “TLT: Still Topping”. This week’s gap down below the range has sealed the deal, and in all likelihood, TLT has put in an intermediate term top. See figure [...]

SLV: Moving Higher

blueguyzee — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 05:41:23 PST

It was only a week ago when we last looked at the i-Shares Silver Trust (symbol: SLV). See figure 1, a weekly chart of the SLV. Figure 1. SLV/ weekly Since that time, SLV has definitively taken out its key pivot at 28.83. This was resistance, and it is now support. Look for SLV to [...]

Investor Sentiment: Is this the End of the Road for the Rally?

blueguyzee — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 08:14:50 PST

The “dumb money” indicator has become extremely bullish (bear signal), and this is what one would expect with rising prices. The higher prices go the more bulls that are recruited. But is it the end of the road for the rally? Not necessarily so. In 1995, 2003, 2009, and Q4 2010/Q1 2011 we saw the [...]

Houston, There is a Problem

blueguyzee — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 14:07:33 PST

We have already highlighted the breakout in the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series (symbol: QQQ), and it is has been clear from the market action over the past 3 weeks that nothing else really matters except, well, the market action. As long as prices are going higher all must be right in the world. Right? It [...]

Dollar Bull Trend Definitely Over and How This Might Impact Equities

blueguyzee — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 06:14:59 PST

Last week it was “likely” over. This week, I am going to say that the bull trend in the Dollar is “definitely” over. I am basing this observation on the fact that we are starting to see a clustering of negative divergence price bars. This doesn’t necessarily mean a top and a reversal, but it [...]

QQQ: Breakout or Fakeout?

blueguyzee — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 05:39:19 PST

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the PowerShares QQQ Trust Series (symbol: QQQ). The black and red dots are key pivot points which are the best areas of buying (support) and selling (resistance). With this week’s price action the QQQ is breaking to new rally highs. This would be the 4th time over the [...]

Recession Averted?

blueguyzee — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 08:16:38 PST

The very erudite Dr. John Hussman has some interesting comments in his latest weekly commentary. Hussman is one of the few commentators that I look forward to reading every week, and he is one of the few that I would trust with my own money. His use of data and weight of the evidence approach [...]

Investor Sentiment: An Important Juncture

blueguyzee — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 21:59:30 PST

There is a sense of incredulousness regarding the recent price action. The market seems to levitate day in and day out despite the news. Dips are limited to 15 minutes of intra-day action. Volume? We don’t need no stinking volume. From this observer’s vantage point, it just doesn’t smell right, but who am I to [...]