thetechnicaltake

Investor Sentiment: Mixed, Nowhere, and Without an Edge

blueguyzee — Sat, 26 May 2012 15:13:37 PDT

Equity investor sentiment remains mixed. The Rydex market timers (i.e., dumb money) remain excessively bullish, and this is a bear signal. On the other hand, company insiders (i.e., smart money) are becoming more bullish, but the value is not yet extreme, which would be a bull signal. The “dumb money” indicator is neutral. I have [...]

Even More Charts with Comments: GLD, GDX, SLV

blueguyzee — Fri, 25 May 2012 12:29:33 PDT

I remain constructive on the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD). The fundamentals are strong. The price action looks like a double bottom. However, price is likely to close below the most immediate key pivot level (153.12). See figure 1. This is a break below support, and this is never a good sign especially when the [...]

We Should Not Forget

blueguyzee — Wed, 23 May 2012 13:18:58 PDT

As Memorial Day approaches, we are reminded that we should not forget. I had the thrill this morning of seeing the 500 plus motorcyclists who are traveling from Los Angeles to Washington, DC to remind Americans of the sacrifices made by those individuals who served our nation. It is the annual “Run for the Wall”. [...]

More Charts with Comments

blueguyzee — Mon, 21 May 2012 06:16:51 PDT

Some of the more popular charts across a variety of markets. These are weekly charts. The black and red dots are key pivot points, which represent the best areas of support (buying) and resistance (selling). Figure 1. SLV/ weekly Figure 2. OIL/ weekly Figure 3. UUP/ weekly

Investor Sentiment: Are We There Yet?

blueguyzee — Sat, 19 May 2012 13:31:45 PDT

Like my whiny children, who after 30 minutes into a 6 hour car drive, investors are asking themselves, “Are we there yet?” After all, the SP500 is down a little over 8% from their highs in the past 3 weeks, and investors want to know if the selling is done and if this is a [...]

Gold: 4 Reasons to be Bullish

blueguyzee — Fri, 18 May 2012 11:46:28 PDT

In my opinion, this is the best opportunity to buy gold in several years. One, it’s all about the fundamentals. With interest rates low and heading lower (10 year Treasury is under 2%), this is gold positive. (See this article from December, 2011.) Furthermore, with the global economy in recession, interest rates will likely continue [...]

Charts with Comments

blueguyzee — Thu, 17 May 2012 09:51:52 PDT

Some of the more popular charts across a variety of markets. These are weekly charts. The black and red dots are key pivot points, which represent the best areas of support (buying) and resistance (selling). The general consensus: if you were a bull 3 weeks ago, then you are likely underwater in your positions and [...]

Gold: Fundamentals Strong, Price Action Ugly

blueguyzee — Wed, 16 May 2012 12:28:19 PDT

Until proven otherwise, central banks will continue to devalue their currencies and intervene in markets because if they didn’t “life as we know it would not exist”. This is the sole basis for understanding the positive fundamentals behind gold. Period. Economic weakness leading to lower interest rates is very gold positive. But sometimes the price [...]

Market Internals Have Broken Down

blueguyzee — Mon, 14 May 2012 12:51:46 PDT

Figure 1 shows a weekly chart of the S&P Depository Receipts (symbol: SPY). The indicator in the lower panel is constructed from the 9 SP500 sector ETF’s (data hidden). The indicator assesses the relative strength of each sector utilizing a 13 week look back period. As you can see, the indicator is rolling over. Figure [...]

Dollar Index to Move Higher

blueguyzee — Mon, 14 May 2012 06:44:03 PDT

I last wrote about the Dollar on January 20, 2012 when I stated: “This week, I am going to say that the bull trend in the Dollar is “definitely” over. I am basing this observation on the fact that we are starting to see a clustering of negative divergence price bars. This doesn’t necessarily mean [...]