College Football Forecast

Week Fourteen

2011-11-30T15:27:00.000-08:00

NOBODY ASKED ME, BUT … let’s just say I hate conferences that are divided into divisions so they can have a championship game … take the Pac-12, for example, which has only three capable football teams playing the game this fall: Stanford, Oregon and USC … and one of those, USC, is ineligible for any kind of a post-season, including the Pac-12 championship game, due to NCAA penalties … Stanford and Oregon are both in the North Division, and since the Ducks chopped down the Tree in their meeting earlier this month, Oregon will host the championship game this Friday night in Eugene … the South Division, meanwhile, is a mess … going into last weekend’s final regular-season games, three teams – Utah, Arizona State and UCLA – had division title hopes dancing in their silly heads, even if none of them are any good … but, Arizona State lost to Cal on Friday night, Utah lost to woeful Colorado early Saturday afternoon, and by the time Saturday night arrived, only UCLA was left standing … which means the Bruins claimed the South Division crown without even picking up a first down … that, of course, didn’t stop the Bruins from playing their scheduled game in the LA Coliseum against archrival USC … so how did the Bruins celebrate their South Division title and upcoming trip to Eugene? … if you guessed by dropping a 50-0 decision to the hated Trojans, move to the head of the class … the Bruins are now 6-6, and with an expected loss to the Ducks Friday night, will need a special dispensation from the Pope to become bowl eligible … and I ask you, is this any way to crown a league champion? … heck, if you want a real championship game matching teams that actually know how to play the game, how about a Stanford-Oregon rematch? … oh yeah, I forgot, they’re in the same division …

This week’s picks for the final week of the regular season are as follows:

OREGON over UCLA … the first-ever Pac-12 championship game is a bust. Conference officials need to go back to the drawing board to prevent such an embarrassing mismatch from ever happening again. The Ducks are loaded. The Bruins aren’t. This one gives new meaning to the expression “backing into” the championship game. Oregon by 99.

LSU over GEORGIA … at least the SEC championship game has a pair of worthy opponents. The last hurdle for LSU before chasing the national championship come Jan. 9 in New Orleans. Bengals by 20.

WISCONSIN over MICHIGAN STATE … but for a couple of last-second Hail Marys, the Badgers might be playing in New Orleans next month. Badgers by 14.

HOUSTON over SOUTHERN MISS … there are only two unbeatens in the entire country and Houston is one of them, but the Cougars simply can’t earn any respect no matter how many points they score. I will say this, though, if Case Keenum were quarterbacking a “name” team, he’d win the Heisman. He’s that good. Cougars by 4.

VIRGINIA TECH over CLEMSON … the Hokies still think they deserve a spot in the national championship game. They don’t. Hokies by 3.

OKLAHOMA STATE over OKLAHOMA … both of these teams had national championship visions dancing in their heads, but both will fall short. In this one, the Cowboys simply have too much offense. Cowboys by 8.

BAYLOR over TEXAS … the Bears are a team on the rise. Bears by 12.

BRIGHAM YOUNG over HAWAII … speaking of teams on the rise, watch out for the Cougars next year. BYU by 24.

BOISE STATE over NEW MEXIC O … the biggest mismatch of the season. Another close-but-no-cigar season for the Broncos. Boise by 65.

OTHER GAMES: Cincinnati over Connecticut, Kansas State over Iowa State, Wyoming over Colorado State, TCU over UNLV, Utah State over New Mexico State, Nevada over Idaho, and San Diego State over Fresno State.

Last week: 33-4, season: 417-112, percentage: .788.

Week Thirteen

2011-11-21T00:00:00.000-08:00

MAD SCRAMBLE NEAR THE TOP … several weeks ago, folks were openly lamenting the great number of unbeaten teams in the country. Well, we’re now down to two: LSU and Houston. While LSU can assure itself of a spot in the BCS championship game simply by winning out, Houston will never get to the title game against a cupcake schedule that includes such lightweights as Rice (73-34), Tulane (73-17), Georgia State (56-0), UTEP, UAB and North Texas, among others. Not a national power among them. Not a single ranked team. Everyone above the Cougars could lose and Houston will still be left out in the cold. Still, it’s an interesting scramble. LSU has an incredibly difficult date with No. 3 Arkansas this weekend, and if it wins that one, an SEC title bout the next weekend against surging Georgia. But what if LSU loses to Arkansas? That would put Arkansas into the picture, for sure, but suppose the Razorbacks turn around and lose the SEC title game to Georgia? The Bulldogs have two losses and are seemingly out of any BCS consideration. Stanford is still hanging around with just one loss, as are Alabama, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and Boise State. Of those, Alabama seems to have the easiest path to a championship game bid, ironically because it lost to LSU several weeks ago. Because of that loss, Alabama will not be in the SEC title game, meaning all it has to do is beat Auburn this weekend and pretty much wrap up the No. 2 BCS ranking, assuring itself of a spot in the title game. Right now, the SEC West division, made up of just six teams, has the top three ranked teams in the country.

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Arkansas, 4) Stanford, 5) Oklahoma State, 6) Houston, 7) Virginia Tech, 8) Houston, 9) Boise State, 10) USC, 11) Oregon, 12) Oklahoma, 13) Michigan State, 14) Georgia, 15) Wisconsin, 16) Kansas State, 17) Michigan, 18) TCU, 19) South Carolina, 20) Penn State, 21) Baylor, 22) Clemson, 23) Notre Dame, 24) Virginia, 25) Southern Mississippi.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) Tulane, 119) Memphis, 118) New Mexico, 117) UNLV, 116) Idaho, 115) Arizona State.

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over NOTRE DAME … after pounding everyone in sight the first nine weeks of the season, Stanford had its eyes squarely on the national championship, not to mention a Heisman Trophy for Andrew Luck. Now, however, the Mighty Tree is struggling, first in a lopsided loss to Oregon, then last week in a nail-biter with so-so Cal. A win over a good, but not great, Notre Dame team will almost certainly assure the Cardinal of a BCS bowl bid, and who knows, if everyone ahead of them loses, a national title game. Tree by 10.

LSU over ARKANSAS … you can’t accuse LSU of playing a weak schedule. First, Alabama on the road and now Arkansas at home, plus the SEC championship game next weekend. If the Bengals win out, they’ll rightly claim a spot in the national championship game. Bayou Bengals by 14.

OREGON over OREGON STATE … the Ducks are down after last week’s heartbreaking loss to USC robbed them of an almost-certain bid to the BCS championship game, but they’ll still have enough juice to whip the Beavers. Ducks by 30.

USC over UCLA … the Trojans have emerged from their two-year probation to the point where they are clearly a top 10 team. They almost blew a 24-point lead against Oregon, but they’ll have no trouble in the Battle of Los Angeles. And come next year, look out. USC is back. Trojans by 21.

WASHINGTON over WASHINGTON STATE … the Cougars were locked out of bowl consideration in a heartbreaking overtime loss to Utah last week, but the Huskies will not have an easy time of it in the annual Apple Cup. Huskies by 3.

MICHIGAN over OHIO STATE … remember when this was the biggest game of the year? Wolverines by 8.

UTAH over COLORADO … wow, after struggling in the early season and losing its first four Pac-12 games, the Utes have emerged as a force to be reckoned with. Colorado, meanwhile, is still looking for someone its own size. Utes by 28.

HOUSTON over TULSA … saving the best for last, Houston will have to bring its “A” game to subdue a talented Tulsa squad. For sure, the scoreboard will get a workout when these two tee it up. And no, despite being one of just two unbeaten teams in the country, the Cougars will not be invited to the Big Dance. Blame a weak schedule for the Cougars’ lack of respect. Houston by 17.

GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH … how bout them Dawgs? Georgia by 11.

PURDUE over INDIANA … the battle for the Old Rotten Bucket as two of the worst teams in the Big 10 do battle in a game one of them has to win. Boilers by 20.

ALABAMA over AUBURN … suddenly, the Crimson Tide seems perfectly set up for a shot at the national title. Auburn may be the defending national champion, but it’s a mere shadow of its former self. Tide by 24.

OKLAHOMA over IOWA STATE … sorry Cyclone fans, lightning doesn’t strike twice. Sooners by 17.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Cal over Arizona State … two programs headed in opposite directions. A loss to the Bears might just seal Dennis Erickson’s fate with the Sun Devils, who are dearly disappointed with this season’s sudden tailspin. Bears by 4. (Upset record: 4-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Boise State over Wyoming … another one of those teams still hoping for a BCS bid, the Broncos will have no trouble once the coin flip is completed. Boise by 35. (Rout record: 11-1).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Virginia Tech over Virginia … the Hokies keep hanging around, but there’s virtually no chance they’ll be invited to the BCS championship game. Then again, don’t discount any possibility in this craziest of BCS years. Hokies by 10. (Don’t bet record: 4-8).

FIVE EASY PICKS: There are no easy picks this week. (FEP season record: 57-3).

OTHER GAMES: Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan, Nebraska over Iowa, Temple over Kent State, Western Michigan over Akron, Toledo over Ball State, Michigan State over Northwestern, Rutgers over Connecticut, North Carolina State over Maryland, Wisconsin over Penn State, Illinois over Minnesota, Missouri over Kansas, North Carolina over Duke, Southern Miss over Memphis, Baylor over Texas Tech, Florida State over Florida, South Carolina over Clemson, San Diego State over UNLV, Mississippi State over Mississippi, Air Force over Colorado State, Hawaii over Tulane, and Nevada over Utah State.

Last week: 32-12, season: 384-108, percentage: .780.

Week Twelve

2011-11-15T22:59:00.000-08:00

BETTER DUCK … those who thought the Oregon Ducks were out of the national championship picture after that uninspired season-opening loss to LSU had better think again … Oregon soared back into the championship conversation with a scintillating 53-30 win over previously unbeaten and seemingly unbeatable Stanford, and made it look easy … all I can say is that’s the fastest flock of Ducks I’ve ever seen … now, if LSU and Oklahoma State win out, the Ducks are nothing more than Duck soup … but if one or the other stumbles, Oregon can sneak into the title game by winning its remaining two games, plus the Pac-12 championship game … the Ducks, however, must still get past ever-improving and always dangerous USC … LSU still has a difficult date with Arkansas, while Oklahoma State finishes its regular season at home against – you’d better sit down – Oklahoma … so all sorts of things can happen … in fact, if Oklahoma upsets Ok State – some would say that wouldn’t even be an upset – the Sooners will be making championship game noise as well … unfortunately, Oklahoma inexplicably lost to a truly awful Texas Tech team and even the BCS computer hasn’t forgotten that one …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Oklahoma State, 3) Oregon, 4) Alabama, 5) Oklahoma, 6) Arkansas, 7) Stanford, 8) Clemson, 9) Virginia Tech, 10) Houston, 11) USC, 12) Georgia, 13) TCU, 14) Boise State, 15) Wisconsin, 16) Michigan State, 17) South Carolina, 18) Kansas State, 19) Nebraska, 20) Michigan, 21) Notre Dame, 22) Southern Miss, 23) Florida State, 24) Baylor, 25) Penn State.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) UNLV (lost to former worst team in America), 119) New Mexico (former worst team in America), 118) Oregon State (lost intrasquad game midweek, 117) Arizona (dropped football at halftime of Colorado game).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over CAL … after last week’s stunningly lopsided loss to Oregon, Stanford may well be sleepwalking through the first part of this game. But once the Cardinal realizes it’s playing Cal, Katie bar the door. Stanford by 24.

OREGON over USC … a dangerous, dangerous game for the Ducks, who are suddenly back in the national championship conversation. USC is clearly the best team in the country that won’t be playing in a bowl game and is more than capable of upsetting Oregon’s applecart. But not this Saturday. And not in Eugene. Ducks by a dozen.

WASHINGTON over OREGON STATE … the Huskies are learning just how far it is to the top of the conference. The Beavers already know. Huskies by 10.

ALABAMA over GEORGIA SOUTHERN … the Crimson Tide’s national title hopes go up in smoke thanks to a schedule that gets soft at the very moment it needs to toughen up. Playing a I-AA opponent in late November is no way to impress the computers. Bama by 40.

UTAH over WASHINGTON STATE … the up-and-down Cougars can’t put it together two weeks in a row. Utes by 3.

UCLA over COLORADO … at long last, the Bruins get a breather. Maybe. Bruins by 21.

NOTRE DAME over BOSTON COLLEGE … the Irish are rolling. A little late, perhaps, but things look bright for next year. Irish by 35.

OKLAHOMA over BAYLOR … the Sooners continue to nurse their distant national title hopes. Sooners by 14.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Arizona over Arizona State … two teams nearing the end of disappointing seasons. Nick Foles is the difference in this one. Wildcats by 2. (Upset record: 3-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma State over Iowa State … can anyone beat these Cowboys? Certainly not Iowa State. Cowboys by 45. (Rout record: 11-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Hawaii over Fresno State … talk about disappointing seasons, here are two more who can join the club. Hawaii by 14. (Don’t bet record: 4-7).

FIVE EASY PICKS: Bet the rent on these, Martha. This week’s guaranteed-to-pay winners are BYU (over New Mexico State), Michigan State (over Indiana), Texas A&M (over Kansas), Southern Miss (over UAB) and TCU (over Colorado State). (FEP record: 53-2).

AGGIES over SACRAMENTO STATE … disappointing years? Add two more to the list. This is why they have rivalry games. The winner at least gets to claim Sacramento Valley superiority. Take the Ags by 3.

OTHER GAMES: Toledo over Central Michigan, South Carolina over Citadel, Nebraska over Michigan, Wisconsin over Illinois, Northwestern over Minnesota, Iowa over Purdue, Georgia over Kentucky, Georgia Tech over Duke, Auburn over Samford, Florida over Furman, Arkansas over Mississippi State, Clemson over North Carolina State, Houston over SMU, Ohio State over Penn State, Miami (Fla.) over South Florida, Missouri over Texas Tech, Rice over Tulane, Air Force over UNLV, Boise State over San Diego State, LSU over Ole Miss, Vanderbilt over Tennessee, Florida State over Virginia, Kansas State over Texas, Tulsa over UTEP, Utah State over Idaho, Nevada over Louisiana Tech, and Wyoming over New Mexico.

Last week: 24-11, season: 352-96, season: .786.

Week Eleven

2011-11-06T22:14:00.000-08:00

GAME OF THE CENTURY (OR WEEK) … wow, two Games of the Century in the same month … first it was LSU 9, Alabama 6, which lived up to all the hype if you like soccer … I mean, wasn’t ever single point in the entire game scored by someone kicking a ball through a goal? … and while most commentators afterward claimed Alabama was clearly the better team, the scoreboard doesn’t lie … plus Alabama was playing at home in front of 101,821 noisy partisans, and tell me that wasn’t tough on LSU trying to call signals … so now we have Game of the Century II – or at least Game of November II – Saturday night in Palo Alto when the Oregon Ducks visit the Farm … with a win, Stanford remains in the national title hunt … the same can’t be said for the Ducks, who lost to LSU in the season opener and are unlikely to earn a rematch with the Bayou Bengals, which is the one team that just about everyone assumes will be in the championship game … a win over Stanford will certainly put Oregon into the conversation, but unless LSU trips along the way, count the Ducks out … then again, give them credit for opening the season against LSU when everyone else was scheduling Cupcake U. from the I-AA ranks … had Oregon done the same, the Ducks would no doubt be ranked second or third in the nation right now and in the thick of the championship race … they could, of course, solve all this unfairness with a simple eight-team playoff, but this way is much more intriguing, don’t you think? …

THE LONG AND BUMPY ROAD TO THE TITLE FOR LSU … none of our potential title contenders has an easy path to the championship game Jan. 9 in New Orleans … LSU’s potential journey seems the most straightforward … simply win out and you’re in … no one else can say that with the same certainty … LSU plays Western Kentucky this weekend in Baton Rouge, then is at 2-7 Mississippi before a land mine game at home against 8-1 and always dangerous Arkansas … the Tigers then must face an extra challenge in the SEC championship game against either Georgia or South Carolina …

OKLAHOMA STATE’S ROUTE … the Cowboys hit the road the next two weeks at Texas Tech and Iowa State and will be heavily favored in both, but let’s not forget that it was Texas Tech that ruined Oklahoma’s perfect season a couple of weeks ago … however, on Dec. 3 Oklahoma comes to Stillwater for what may well be Game of the Century III this fall … the Sooners, who are no strangers to national championships and national championship games, are not happy about the Cowboys stealing their thunder in the Panhandle State … fortunately for Oklahoma State’s hopes, there is no Big 12 title game this year with the defection of Colorado to the Pac-12 and Nebraska to the Big 10 …

STANFORD’S ROUTE … unlike every other team with national title hopes, the Cardinal will have homefield advantage in its final four games … first and foremost, Stanford must beat Oregon this Saturday … it then hosts traditional rival Cal, which is always scary, followed by another trap game against up-and-down but notoriously talented Notre Dame … and then – assuming a win over Oregon – Stanford would host the inaugural Pac-12 title game against either UCLA or Arizona State … the Cardinal routed UCLA, 45-19, on the first Saturday of October, but didn’t have Arizona State on the schedule this year … sadly for the Cardinal, one-loss Alabama is now third in the BCS standings, while Stanford is fourth … if both win out and Oklahoma State loses, we’ll get a rematch of LSU-Alabama for the national championship, with unbeaten Stanford sitting on the sidelines … it will also be the end of the BCS in terms of fan acceptance …

BOISE STATE’S ROUTE … Boise is home this week against 7-2 TCU, which is not exactly a patsy … the Broncos then hit the road for a game at San Diego State, before finishing with two easy games at home against Wyoming and New Mexico, the latter the worst team – by far – in Division I-A football … the bad news for Boise is that strength of schedule is a key factor in the always suspect BCS rankings … so, for example, while Boise is finishing against Wyoming and winless New Mexico, LSU will be finishing against nationally ranked Arkansas and either nationally ranked Georgia or nationally ranked South Carolina, while Oklahoma State will be finishing against nationally ranked Oklahoma … strength of schedule alone is likely to eliminate the Broncos unless everyone ahead of them stumbles badly …

OREGON’S ROUTE … while the Ducks’ chances are remote at best, they are not impossible … then again, it could snow inside the Superdome in New Orleans on Jan. 9 … beating Stanford is a must, followed by a difficult home date with ever improving USC and then a home date against archrival Oregon State … plus a lot of help from their friends …

ALABAMA’S ROUTE … the Crimson Tide essentially played to a tie with the No. 1 team in America, only to put together one of the worst overtime performances in the history of major college football … still, people are talking about a rematch with LSU in the championship game … if that happens, it will simply prove what a complete fraud the BCS truly is … it will say in no uncertain terms that we’ve already decided that two SEC teams should play for the national title and everyone else gets leftovers … and never mind that Stanford is unbeaten against a rugged schedule, we’re going to let one-loss Alabama into the title game and give them a second bite at the LSU apple … simply criminal … regardless, the schedule does not favor Alabama leaping back into contention all by itself … after a date at Mississippi State Saturday, Alabama comes home to meet I-AA Georgia Southern … put simply, when you’re trying to convince the BCS computer about the strength of your schedule, this would not be the time to be dropping down a level in competition … Alabama then closes on the road at archrival Auburn …

AND FINALLY … if everyone else in the country loses all remaining games, the BCS has agreed to let the UC Davis-Sac State game on Nov. 19, matching teams that are both currently 3-6, decide the national championship …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Stanford, 3) Oklahoma State, 4) Alabama, 5) Oregon, 6) Boise State, 7) Oklahoma, 8) Arkansas, 9) Houston, 10) Clemson, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Michigan State, 13) Georgia, 14) Penn State, 15) Wisconsin, 16) USC, 17) Cincinnati, 18) Southern Mississippi, 19) South Carolina, 20) Texas, 21) Kansas State, 22) TCU, 23) Auburn, 24) Nebraska, 25) Michigan.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) New Mexico, 119) Colorado.

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over OREGON … after studying hours of film and consulting friends in both Eugene and Palo Alto, the outcome of this one became clear. Both teams can score, sometimes seemingly at will. It may well be the case that the last team with the ball wins. But if there’s an edge anywhere, it goes to Stanford’s rugged defense. And after watching Andrew Luck stare down adversity against USC, he seems to have that rare ability to will his team to victory. All that, plus the homefield advantage, point to Stanford. I reserve the right to change my mind at halftime. Stanford by 7.

CAL over OREGON STATE … for some reason, the Bears seem to have trouble with the Beavers, especially in Strawberry Canyon. Lucky for Cal fans, this one’s in San Francisco. With a win Cal becomes bowl eligible. They won’t blow it this time. Cal by 21.

USC over WASHINGTON … the Trojans can’t go bowling, but they can certainly try to rain on everyone else’s parade. If Matt Barkley comes back for his senior year, he may just win that Heisman that’s been predicted for him from the moment he stepped on the USC campus. Troy by 10.

BOISE STATE over TCU … at the beginning of the year, this one was penciled in as a major showdown. Unfortunately, the Horned Frogs, under former UC Davis assistant Gary Patterson, haven’t lived up to the high bar they set for themselves in the last several years. Nevertheless, TCU is the last hurdle for Boise on the way to yet another undefeated season and BCS bowl berth. And who knows, the Broncos could still sneak into the national title conversation if everything breaks right down the stretch. Boise by 14.

UCLA over UTAH … the two hottest teams in the conference try to salvage what they can from their disappointing seasons. Bruins by 3.

ARIZONA STATE over WASHINGTON STATE … the Cougars made the mistake of winning early and raising expectations all over the Palouse. Now that reality has settled in, it’s unclear if former Davis High star Paul Wulff will be given another year at the helm. Devils by 20.

NOTRE DAME over MARYLAND … two schools named after Mary square off in what will be a lopsided victory for the Fighting Irish. The winner gets to play William&Mary, and the winner of that one will play the University of Mary. Irish by 28.

ARIZONA over COLORADO … the bumbling Buffs have applied for membership in the Big Sky Conference for 2012. Arizona by 24.

LSU over WESTERN KENTUCKY … this game will be called at halftime. LSU by 120.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Missouri over Texas … the Longhorns are ripe for an upset. Mizzou by 1. (Upset record: 2-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma State over Texas Tech … the Cowboys had their scare last week against Kansas State. It won’t be close this time. Cowboys by 30. (Rout record: 10-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over New Mexico State … the Bulldogs finally find an opponent they can beat. Fresno by 27. (Don’t bet record: 4-6).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s certain winners are Alabama (over Mississippi State), Baylor (over Kansas), Brigham Young (over Idaho), Wisconsin (over Minnesota) and Arkansas (over Tennessee). (FEP record: 48-2).

AGGIES over NORTH DAKOTA … the Aggies hit their stride last week with an impressive win over Cal Poly. Take the Ags by 6.

OTHER GAMES: South Carolina over Florida, Nebraska over Penn State, Clemson over Wake Forest, Texas A&M over Kansas State, Michigan over Illinois, Michigan State over Iowa, Georgia over Auburn, Florida State over Miami (Fla.), Ohio State over Purdue, Northwestern over Rice, Tulsa over Marshall, Air Force over Wyoming, Virginia over Duke, Rutgers over Army, Southern Mississippi over Central Florida, UNLV over New Mexico, and Nevada over Hawaii.

Last week: 24-8, season: 328-85, percentage: .794.

Week Ten

2011-10-31T22:56:00.000-07:00

SHOWDOWN LOOMS … last week a kind reader asked who I was going to pick when Oregon visits Stanford Nov. 12 … I told him it was one of the most intriguing matchups in recent history, but as things stood, I was leaning toward Oregon … by a point … I added that if the game were in Eugene, I’d probably take the Ducks by a touchdown … and while we have a week to go here and anything can happen – an upset, a key injury – I must admit that Stanford’s incredible win over USC on the road Saturday night has me rethinking my original position … that, combined with the fact that Oregon gave up a huge number of yards and 28 points in beating a mediocre Washington State team while Stanford was beating the Trojans in triple overtime … Oregon has been tested only once in the regular season, against LSU in the season opener, and it failed … Stanford’s first big test was against USC, and despite the nail-biting nature of the game, you’d have to say the Cardinal passed that test with flying colors … first off, it was on the road in a truly hostile environment … second, the Cardinal trailed by 10 in the second half and by 7 going into the final three minutes, and again by 7 in overtime … they faced down adversity each time and won the game … both Oregon and Stanford are on the road this weekend before their big showdown … Oregon figures to handle Washington, but the Huskies are certainly a more difficult test than Stanford has at Oregon State … the Beavers have shown improvement from their 0-4 start, but took a huge step backward in a 27-8 loss at Utah last weekend … Stanford should win by six touchdowns, whether or not it’s looking ahead to Nov. 12 … check in next week … I may change my mind again …

COACHING DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE … Washington State played decently at Oregon, but passed up a golden opportunity to make things interesting in Eugene … trailing 29-13, the Cougars scored with 3:52 to go in the third quarter, cutting the lead to 10 … given that Oregon can score very quickly and that time was of the essence, strategy demands that the Cougars attempt a two-point conversion … if successful, they’d be just one score down … by kicking the extra point, the Cougs would be 9 points down and would still need at least two scores while holding Oregon scoreless to win the game … Cougar coach Paul Wulff chose to kick, leaving the Cougars 9 points behind, and the next team the WSU offense touched the ball, Oregon had scored yet another touchdown and the game was essentially over … Oregon State, meanwhile, was trailing 24-0 and playing badly at Utah when it finally found the end zone on the first play of the fourth quarter … suddenly it was 24-6 and Beaver coach Mike Riley sensed a glimmer of hope … he immediately ordered a two-point conversion, which would have drawn the Beavers within two scores … an extra point would have kept the margin at 17, which is three scores any way you slice it … the two-point attempt, failed, but it was the right move … oddly, the Beavers later picked up those two points on a safety, but by then it was much too late to stop the Utes …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) RANKINGS … for sure, no matter the final score come Saturday night, LSU and Alabama will no longer be ranked 1-2 in the nation … the loser of the current Game of the Century – until Oregon and Stanford meet in next week’s Game of the Century – will most certainly drop two or three spots, maybe more … if it’s a blowout, they could even drop out of the top 10 … the winner will be an automatic No. 1 and need only win out to gain a spot in the national title game Jan. 9 in New Orleans … forget the rumors, there will not be an LSU-Alabama rematch in January … that would be the death of the BCS … at this point, there are only three serious contenders to join either Alabama or LSU in the title game, presuming that the LSU-Alabama winner remains undefeated the rest of the way, which is a big “if” … Oklahoma State may well be the best team in the country … Stanford may well be the best team in the country … Boise State may well be the best team in the country … all are undefeated, but while Stanford and Oklahoma State have land mines ahead, Boise State has clear sailing … believe it or not, that hurts the Broncos, since strength of schedule figures hugely in the BCS rankings, and beating winless New Mexico will not move you up in the polls …

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Stanford, 4) Oklahoma State, 5) Boise State, 6) Oregon, 7) Oklahoma, 8) Nebraska, 9) Arkansas, 10) USC, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Clemson, 13) Houston, 14) South Carolina, 15) Kansas State, 16) Michigan, 17) Michigan State, 18) Penn State, 19) Wisconsin, 20) Arizona State, 21) Texas, 22) Auburn, 23) Georgia Tech, 24) Georgia, 25) West Virginia.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) New Mexico, 119) New Mexico, 118) New Mexico, 117) etc.

This week’s picks are as follows:

LSU over ALABAMA … both teams are well rested after bye weeks and raring to go. LSU has the better offense, Bama the better defense. A classic matchup with the winner moving into the driver’s seat for a national championship bid and the loser not likely to be invited to the dance. In this one, ultimately, great offense beats great defense. But just barely. LSU by 4.

STANFORD over OREGON STATE … pick a score, any score. Yes, the Cardinal will have a letdown after last week’s heart-pounding, come-from-behind triple overtime win over USC, but the Beavers will be unable to take advantage. Stanford by 56.

OREGON over WASHINGTON … one final tuneup for the flawless Ducks before that incredible showdown at Stanford Stadium come Nov. 12. Ducks by a dozen.

ARIZONA STATE over UCLA … the Bruins’ yo-yo season swings downward once again after a stellar performance against Cal. ASU by 21.

USC over COLORADO (Friday) … if the Trojans show up, this one will be strictly no contest. Will USC be flat? Indeed. But nowhere near as flat as the Bungling Buffs, who are wondering why on earth they wanted to join the Pac-12 in the first place. Trojans by 37.

ARIZONA over UTAH … the Utes won’t be able to score enough points to counteract Nick Foles. Arizona by 7.

OKLAHOMA STATE over KANSAS STATE … the Wildcats go O-for-Oklahoma after falling to the Sooners last week. If the Cowboys finish unbeaten and don’t make the championship game, the whole system will be exposed as a fraud. Cowboys by 24.

NOTRE DAME over WAKE FOREST … the Irish have hit the soft spot on their schedule and should have clear sailing until that date with Stanford Nov. 26. Irish by 30.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Washington State over Cal … the Cougars proved against Oregon last week that they are a vastly improved outfit. The Bears proved against UCLA last week that this is going to be an up-and-down year. Wazzu by 10. (Upset record: 2-7).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Boise State over UNLV … the good news for the Broncos is that they’ll remain undefeated without breaking a sweat. The bad news is that playing the likes of UNLV will make it nearly impossible to move up in the BCS standings, no matter the final score. Broncos by 70. (Rout record: 9-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over Louisiana Tech … the 2011 edition of the Bulldogs is nowhere near as fearsome as in previous years. Dawgs by 17. (Don’t bet record: 4-5).

FIVE EASY PICKS: Bet the rent on these, Martha. This week’s money-back guaranteed winners are Ohio State (over Indiana), Georgia (over New Mexico State), TCU (over Wyoming), Wisconsin (over Purdue) and Nebraska (over Northwestern). (FEP record: 44-1).

AGGIES over CAL POLY … there’s no way to sugarcoat it, this UC Davis team is struggling in a way we haven’t seen in decades. Even with a losing season assured, UCD can set the table for a turnaround next season by taking care of business down the stretch, starting with Poly. Take the Ags by 3.

OTHER GAMES: Oklahoma over Texas A&M, Michigan State over Minnesota, Michigan over Iowa, Texas over Texas Tech, West Virginia over Louisville, Florida over Vanderbilt, Iowa State over Kansas, North Carolina over North Carolina State, Miami (Fla.) over Duke, Air Force over Army, Navy over Troy, Tennessee over Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State over Tennessee-Martin, Houston over UAB, and San Diego State over New Mexico.

Last week: 25-11, season: 304-77, percentage: .798.

Week Nine

2011-10-23T22:11:00.000-07:00

BCS (BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES) STANDINGS … it doesn’t really matter if it’s LSU or Alabama atop the BCS poll at this point … The two have byes this week and then face off in Tuscaloosa Nov. 5 … may as well just crown the winner of that one as national champion and call off the season after that … my favorite, Wisconsin, found out that prayer works – for Michigan State – when the Spartans beat them with a Hail Mary on the final play of regulation … after further review, it’s a touchdown … what an undramatic way to end a football game … while the LSU-Alabama winner has a clear shot to the title game, the loser will be gone and forgotten … still too many unbeatens for a one-loss team to sneak into the title game, especially if it’s against a team they already lost to in the regular season … there’d be lots of justifiable howling about such a selection … who will the second team be? … well, Oklahoma State can probably get there by winning out … Boise State has a chance to sneak into the title game, but its relatively weak schedule the rest of the way won’t help with the computer ranking, which makes up a third of the poll … Stanford, with games ahead against USC (this Saturday in the Coliseum) and Oregon (Nov. 12 on the Farm), can also make a case for title game inclusion … Clemson might finish unbeaten, but doesn’t seem to be attracting much attention at this point … Kansas State will not finish unbeaten, period, and Houston just might run the table and not even crack the Top 10 …

WELCOME WAGON … not long ago the Pac-12 added Colorado and Utah to the 2011 Pac-12 schedule with much fanfare … please, hold the confetti … those two have yet to figure out how to win even a single game in their new home and both seem to drop further behind the pack every weekend … Colorado trailed 29-0 at the quarter in a 45-2 loss to Oregon, and Utah didn’t show up in a 34-10 loss to Cal … when the Pac-12 expands again to give cannon fodder to the schedules of existing members, it’s looking at Sac State, Idaho, Northern Arizona and the University of Mary …

LOSE TO THE BEAVERS, FIRE THE COACH … two weeks ago, after a 37-27 loss to Oregon State, Arizona fired head coach Mike Stoops … it must have been painful for Stoops to pick up the morning paper after the Wildcats returned to action Stoops-less and responded with a 48-12 win over UCLA … last Saturday Washington State dropped a shocking 44-21 decision to those same Oregon State Beavers, and already the rumor mill says the job of Wazzu head coach Paul Wulff is in jeopardy … pretty soon they’re going to start calling Beaver head coach Mike Riley the Grim Reaper …

TOP OF THE HEAP: 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Stanford, 4) Oklahoma State, 5) Clemson, 6) Boise State, 7) Oregon, 8) Michigan State, 9) Wisconsin, 10) Kansas State, 11) Arkansas, 12) Virginia Tech, 13) Oklahoma, 14) Nebraska, 15) South Carolina, 16) USC, 17) Houston, 18) Texas A&M, 19) Texas Tech, 20) Michigan, 21) Georgia, 22) Texas Tech, 23) Arizona State, 24) Penn State, 25) Stanford Second String

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL: 120) LOSE-CLA (say goodbye, Rick), 119) Pac-12 rookies Colorado and Utah (0-8 in conference), 118) Wazzu (heading backward), 117) New Mexico 0-7 (losing 69-0 to TCU was a moral victory because there is no mercy rule in college football, and besides, the Lobos did manage five first downs).

THIS WEEK’S PICKS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

HOUSTON over RICE (Thursday) … everything goes good over Rice. Cougars by 70.

MIAMI (Fla.) over Virginia (Thursday) … the Hurricanes seems to have overcome those early-season “distractions” and are now playing football. Miami by 12.

CAL over UCLA … the Bears have their swagger back after an overwhelming rout of struggling Utah. Especially impressive was the Cal defense, which is nothing but bad news for the Bruins. Bears by 20.

STANFORD over USC … the Cardinal finally faced a ranked opponent and responded with a 65-point outburst against Washington. Beating USC in the Coliseum is never easy, but then again, Stanford appears ready to meet any challenge thrown its way. Stanford by 3.

WASHINGTON over ARIZONA … the Wildcats are coming off a 36-point Pac-12 win, while the Huskies are coming off a 44-point Pac-12 loss. And yet the Huskies are favored by a touchdown. For good reason. Huskies by 6.

NOTRE DAME over NAVY … when the Irish don’t fumble, they win. When they do fumble, they lose. They won’t fumble against Navy. Irish by 22.

TCU over BYU … an intriguing matchup between an improving BYU outfit and a good but not great bunch of Horned Frogs. The “Y’s” modest win streak comes to a screeching halt. Toads by 10.

OKLAHOMA STATE over BAYLOR … the message for the Cowboys is clear: win out and play for the national championship. The ball is entirely in their court. Cowboys by 27.

OKLAHOMA over KANSAS STATE … the party’s over for the Manhattan Wildcats. Sooners by 17.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Michigan State over Nebraska … the Spartans proved their worth with a dramatic win over one of the best teams in the land, Wisconsin, and will give the Cornhuskers another rude welcome to Big 10 football. Spartans by 2. (Upset record: 2-6).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Interstate 5 to Eugene, where Oregon will absolutely demolish Paul Wulff’s suddenly vulnerable Cougars. A couple of weeks ago they were talking bowl game in Pullman. But after last Saturday’s 44-21 shellacking at the hands of Oregon State, Wulff seems to be back on the coaching hot seat as the schedule turns suddenly more difficult. Ducks by 49. (Rout record: 8-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Utah over Oregon State … the Beavers played nearly flawless football on both sides of the ball in absolutely dismantling Washington State, while Utah still hasn’t proven it belongs in the Pac-12. We’ll find out in a hurry whether Oregon State is on its usual mid-season roll or if Utah is finally able to play in this league. Utes by 11. (Don’t bet record: 3-5).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s red-hot winners are Virginia Tech (over Duke), Air Force (over New Mexico), Army (over Fordham), Arizona State (over Colorado) and Texas (over Kansas). (FEP record: 39-1).

AGGIES over SOUTHERN UTAH … struggling along at an uncharacteristic 2-5, the Aggies finish with four games they can win. These are also four games they can lose. All of them appear to be easy matches. However, Southern Utah is never easy pickings in the thin air of Cedar City. Takes the Ags by 14.

OTHER GAMES: Texas A&M over Missouri, Michigan over Purdue, Florida State over North Carolina State, Northwestern over Indiana, Arkansas over Vanderbilt, Maryland over Boston College, Penn State over Illinois, Georgia over Florida, West Virginia over Rutgers, Iowa over Minnesota, North Carolina over Wake Forest, Texas Tech over Iowa State, Mississippi State over Kentucky, South Carolina over Tennessee, Clemson over Georgia Tech, Wisconsin over Ohio State, San Diego State over Wyoming, Nevada over New Mexico State, Colorado State over UNLV, and Hawaii over Idaho.

Last week: 27-7, season: 279-66, percentage: .809.

Week Eight

2011-10-17T22:09:00.000-07:00

BCS (BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES) RANKINGS: Yes, the first BCS poll of the year is out, using equal parts Harris Interactive Poll, USA Today Coaches Poll and computer rankings, the last of which is completely worthless … for example, Oklahoma State is sixth in both the Harris and Coaches polls, but rated first by the computer, which apparently likes big, big scores … Wisconsin, which just might be the best team in America, is fourth in both human polls but an inexplicable 11^th in the computer ranking … Badger coach Brett Bielema plans to have a talk with the computer this week to find out what it doesn’t like about beer and brats and power football … all of this would be just plain silliness if not for the fact that the top two teams to emerge from this mess at the end of the year will get to play for the national championship … Oklahoma, meanwhile – NOT Oklahoma State – is picked first by the coaches and fourth by the computer, which would leave the Sooners out in the cold come Selection Saturday in December … and then we have Kansas State, a Cinderella story to be sure, even if the Wildcats are easily the worst 6-0 team in the country … K-State is 16^th in the Coaches Poll, but No. 7 in the computer ranking, which makes about as much sense as naming a city in the middle of Kansas “Manhattan” … who knows, maybe the computer will take a liking to 0-6 New Mexico one day soon and rank the Lobos number one … makes about as much sense as the current system …

THINNING A BUMPER CROP … well, those 13 unbeatens entering last weekend were trimmed to 10, but that’s still 8 more than will be picked for the BCS championship game January 9 in New Orleans … Alabama and LSU meet Nov. 4 in what is already being billed as the Game of the Century – only 11 seasons in this century so far, so that may be accurate – and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State conclude the regular season against each other on Dec. 3 … Stanford appears to have clear sailing before hosting one-loss Oregon Nov. 12, while it doesn’t appear anyone is going to threaten Wisconsin in any way, shape or form … same for Boise State, which will be favored by at least three touchdowns in every game the rest of the way … yes, including TCU next month … Clemson, Kansas State and Houston don’t figure to be in the discussion even if they win out … fair? … hardly … then again, if you put Houston in the SEC, would you expect the Cougars to even win half of their games? … I rest my case …

THROWING IN THE TOWEL … so, Oregon led Arizona State 41-27 with eight minutes left in Eugene … the Sun Devils faced a makeable fourth-and-2 at their own 38 yard line … with the game hanging in the balance, Arizona State head coach Dennis Erickson was clearly faced with a difficult decision … should he run or should he pass? … turns out he did neither … nope, the man punted … well actually his punter punted, but you get the point … Oregon said “thank you very much,” ran four minutes off the clock before punting back to the Sun Devils and the game was essentially over … final: 41-27 … then again, since Oregon was a 14-and-a-half-point favorite, the Sun Devils did cover the spread, which should make some folks happy back in Tempe …

SPEAKING OF POINT SPREADS … South Carolina, a three-point favorite over Mississippi State, scored late to take a 14-10 lead over the Bulldogs … but then came a

critical decision … faced with a fourth down inside their own 10 yard line, but with only 4 seconds left on the clock, the Gamecocks didn’t want to risk a punt that could be blocked or returned for a touchdown … so they snapped the ball, ran backward into the end zone to use up the four seconds, then stepped neatly out of the end zone to end the game with a safety … final score: 14-12 … yes, that means Mississippi State covered the spread …

CHRIS PETERSEN WATCH … folks in Tucson are actually spreading the rumor that Boise State coach Chris Petersen, who perpetually has his team in the top 5 and is the winningest active coach in America, is a leading candidate to replace the fired Mike Stoops at the Univ. of Arizona … hey, Petersen is not that stupid … he is, after all, a UC Davis graduate … as such, he knows you don’t trade wild success for the humdrum of mediocrity …

TOP OF THE HEAP: 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Wisconsin, 4) Oklahoma, 5) Oklahoma State, 6) Boise State, 7) Stanford, 8) Clemson, 9) Oregon, 10) Virginia Tech, 11) South Carolina, 12) Nebraska, 13) Michigan State, 14) Kansas State, 15) West Virginia, 16) Texas A&M, 17) Houston, 18) Michigan, 19) Penn State, 20) Auburn, 21) Illinois, 22) Georgia, 23) Washington, 24) Notre Dame, 25) Georgia Tech …

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL: 120) New Mexico 0-6, 119-117) Pac-12 bottom feeders Colorado, Arizona, Oregon State 3-16, 116) Florida Atlantic 0-6, 115) Alabama Not Tuscaloosa (Birmingham) 0-6, 114) UNLV 1-5, 113) Idaho 1-6, 112) Boston College 1-5, 111) Indiana 1-6 …

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over WASHINGTON … my goodness, everyone talks about Andrew Luck, but they really should be talking about the Stanford defense. Luck is a star, to be sure, and he may well win the Heisman Trophy, but there are few defenses in the country as dominating as Stanford’s. If the other guys can’t score, they can’t beat you. Stanford, 42-7.

UTAH over CAL … unless the Bears come up with some consistency at quarterback, they won’t be able to solve a stout Utah defense in what should be a low-scoring affair. Utes, 13-10.

OREGON over COLORADO … your Heisman Trophy candidate running back is out with a dislocated elbow, your magical quarterback just left the game with a leg injury and you’re behind in the second half to powerful Arizona State. So you bring on a freshman quarterback and a couple of other talented subs and proceed to take over the game. That’s Oregon. Ducks, 60-0.

LSU over AUBURN … a national-champion-to-be routs last year’s national champion. LSU, 35-17.

ALABAMA over TENNESSEE … pity the poor Volunteers, facing LSU and Alabama on back to back weekends. Who made this schedule? Bama, 44-13.

OKLAHOMA over TEXAS TECH … yet another rout in Norman. Sooners, 56-14.

WISCONSIN over MICHIGAN STATE … if anyone’s going to challenge the Badgers this year, it may be that talented bunch in East Lansing. Badgers, 38-28.

BOISE STATE over AIR FORCE … the Broncos will dominate the skies in this one. New conference, same old story. Boise, 51-16.

KANSAS STATE over KANSAS … this one’s for all the sunflowers. And yes, Dorothy will skydive into the stadium with the game ball and Toto will conduct the coin toss. Wildcats, 31-24.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Oregon State over Washington State … the Beavers may be down and deflated, but they’re not about to lose to the Cougars two years in a row. Beavers, 30-27. (Upset record: 1-6).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Texas A&M over Iowa State … one last feast on Big 12 fodder before A&M heads off for the daunting SEC treadmill. Aggies, 40-14. (Rout record: 7-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Notre Dame over USC … there was a time when this was annually one of the biggest games in the country. Now it’s just another game as USC waits to get off probation and Notre Dame dreams of future glory based on past success. Irish, 17-14. (Don’t bet record: 3-4).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s locks are Nebraska (over Minnesota), Arkansas (over Ole Miss), TCU (over New Mexico), Virginia Tech (over Boston College) and Brigham Young (over Idaho State). (FEP record: 34-1).

AGGIES OVER SOUTH DAKOTA … the Coyotes may be wily, but the Aggies have finally found a way to win. Watch out the rest of the way. Take the Ags by 13.

OTHER GAMES: West Virginia over Syracuse, Oklahoma State over Missouri, Clemson over North Carolina, Illinois over Purdue, Kentucky over Jacksonville State, Northern Illinois over Buffalo, Iowa over Indiana, Wake Forest over Duke, Miami (Fla.) over Georgia Tech, Florida State over Maryland, Houston over Marshall, Penn State over Northwestern, Tulsa over Rice, Toledo over Miami (Ohio), Hawaii over New Mexico State, and Nevada over Fresno State.

Last week: 28-6, season: 252-59, percentage: .810.

Week Seven

2011-10-11T22:29:00.000-07:00

WEEK SEVEN

SWITCHING PARTNERS … turns out Texas Christian got divorced before it even got married … the Horned Frogs, flexing their muscles after last year’s impressive Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, were all set to join the Big East before Syracuse and Pittsburgh bolted from that conference for the ACC … suddenly the Big 12 – now only 10 – came calling after the departures of Colorado, Nebraska and Texas A&M … and now TCU is back where it belongs, in a Midwest/Southwest conference with natural rivals like Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Baylor …

EVEN MORE CONFERENCE TALK … the Big East, now down to six teams and about to disintegrate as a football conference, is now talking to the Pentagon to see if Army, Navy and Air Force might be willing to join … also being considered are East Carolina, Memphis and Central Florida … if the Big East adds all those weak sisters and maintains its automatic BCS bowl bid, a major crime will have been committed …

A HUMBOLDTING EXPERIENCE … nobody, not even the most diehard partisans in Arcata, expected Division II Humboldt State to come to UC Davis and embarrass the Aggies, who seemingly never lose to a team they are supposed to beat … in fact, playing up and playing well is UCD’s modus operandi … remember wins over Stanford, UOP, Nevada and others over the years? … the last time I remember the Aggies being 1-4, in 1981, they reeled over 17 straight wins behind quarterback Ken O’Brien to reach the 1982 Division II championship game in McAllen, Texas … we’ll see if they can duplicate that feat this time around …

WHAT’S THAT RING DOING ON YOUR FINGER, COACH? … when Texas-San Antonio brings its first-ever varsity football team to Davis for a Saturday afternoon battle with the Aggies, they’ll be led onto the field by head coach Larry Coker … yes, that would be the same Larry Coker who not so long ago (2001) earned a national championship as the head coach at Miami … this will be the second time Bob Biggs and the Aggies have faced such a winning coach this year … at Arizona State in the season opener they were up against Dennis Erickson, who has two national championships to his credit … yep, both at Miami …

O FOR FLORIDA … for the first time in recorded history, the state of Florida does not have a single team ranked in the top 25 … most of the rest of the college football world is not upset about this revolting development …

CROWDED AT THE TOP … it’s truly impossible to separate the top eight teams in the weekly rankings and things might not clear up anytime soon … a case can be made that each of the eight, at least at this point, is worthy of playing for the national championship … there’s a very real chance this year that five or six or seven teams could finhish undefeated and all will be lobbying for a spot in the title game … playoff? … not a chance … actually, there are 13 unbeatens at this point, an unusually high number as we near the midpoint of the season, but Houston, Illinois, Kansas State and Georgia Tech don’t figure to ever crack the top tier, no matter if they stay undefeated all year long …

RUNNING UP THE SCORE … in an attempt to leapfrog each other, the nation’s unbeatens keep running up the score, hoping to impress the voters … Boise wins 57-7, Oklahoma 55-17, Oklahoma State 70-28, Alabama 34-0, Stanford 48-7, Houston 56-3, LSU 41-11 and so on … as if anyone’s paying attention …

ARIZONA STOOPS TO NEW LOW … never mind that Mike Stoops took Arizona to bowl games the last three years with teams that finished 8-5, 8-5 and 7-6 … he lost to Oregon State, which is unforgivable in Tucson … and imagine how the meager Beavers must feel costing the other guy’s coach his job …

THE LONGEST YARD … believe it or not, Georgia faced a third-and-57 situation in its win over Tennessee last Saturday … the Bulldogs called a running play, gained one yard and punted … I remember as a kid listening to a 49ers game on the radio and I think it was the Baltimore Colts who faced a fourth-and-60, which sounded impossible … turns out it was …

TOP OF THE HEAP: 1) LSU, 2) Wisconsin, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Alabama, 5) Oklahoma State, 6) Stanford, 7) Boise State, 8) Oregon, 9) Clemson, 10) Arkansas, 11) West Virginia, 12) Michigan, 13) Illinois, 14) Kansas State, 15) Georgia Tech, 16) Virginia Tech, 17) Houston, 18) Baylor, 19) South Carolina, 20), Nebraska, 21) Arizona State, 22) Texas, 23) Michigan State, 24) Auburn, 25) Notre Dame.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL: 120) Pentagon (Army, Navy, Air Force defenders gave up 157 points in 0-3 weekend), 119) New Mexico (0-5), 118) UAB (0-5), 117) Florida Atlantic (0-5), 116) Arizona (1-5), 115) UNLV (1-4), 114) Minnesota (1-5).

This week’s picks are as follows:

USC over CAL (Thursday night) … both teams remember last year’s rout by the Trojans. No reason to believe a different outcome is in the offing this time. Injuries on defense are hurting the Bears just as the Trojan offense is hitting its stride. A bad combination for Jeff Tedford as he tries to reach the upper echelons of the Pac-10. I mean Pac-12. Trojans by 14.

STANFORD over WASHINGTON STATE … the improving Cougars were the better team for most of four quarters at UCLA, but faded in the final minutes and are bitterly disappointed as they head into the meat of their schedule. Don’t expect Stanford to have pity. The Stanford folks are intelligent, and they know the Palouse can be dangerous this time of year. Stanford by 27.

OREGON over ARIZONA STATE … even without Heisman candidate LaMichael James, sidelined with an elbow injury, the Ducks simply have too many weapons for the rejuvenated Sun Devils. This one is being billed as a “statement game” for Arizona State. The statement will be “We’re not ready for prime time.” Oregon by 22.

BRIGHAM YOUNG over OREGON STATE … the Meager Beavers rose up and slapped down Arizona last week for their first win of the season and suddenly they’re talking Rose Bowl in Corvallis. C’mon, it was Arizona, which couldn’t win an intrasquad game at this point. This is not one of the great BYU teams of old, but the Cougars will have just enough to snap the Beavers’ one-game winning streak. Cougars by 7.

WASHINGTON over COLORADO … the Buffs are still trying to figure out why they thought the grass was greener in the Pac-12. Huskies by 22.

LSU over TENNESSEE … the best team in the land just keeps getting better. Bayou Bengals by 24.

ALABAMA over OLE MISS … the Tide keeps on rolling. Bama by 20.

OKLAHOMA STATE over TEXAS … I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the best team nobody’s talking about resides in Stillwater. The Cowboys take no prisoners. Cowboys by 10.

OHIO STATE over ILLINOIS … the bubble finally bursts for the Fighting Illini. Buckeyes by 1.

UTAH STATE over FRESNO STATE … my oh my how the mighty have fallen from their lofty perch. The Bulldogs don’t scare anyone anymore. Utah State by 6.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Michigan over Michigan State … the Wolverines are undefeated and 11^th ranked nationally. Michigan State is 4-1 and ranked 23^rd. Michigan State is also favored in this game. Go figure. Wolverines by 11. (Upset record: 1-5).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Wisconsin over Indiana … the Badgers put up 83 points on the Hoosiers last year. They won’t be as kind this time around. Badgers by 65. (Rout record: 6-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Virginia Tech over Wake Forest … the Demon Deacons haven’t attracted this much attention since Brian’s Song. Hokies by 17. (Don’t bet record: 2-4).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s sure-to-please winners are Boise State (over Colorado State), Nevada (over New Mexico), Clemson (over Maryland), Oklahoma (over Kansas) and Cincinnati (over Louisville). (FEP record: 29-1).

AGGIES over TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO … the Roadrunners will be a team to contend with a few years down the road. The Aggies, meanwhile, will take their wins where they can find them this year. Take the Ags by 7.

OTHER GAMES: South Carolina over Mississippi State, Texas A&M over Baylor, Toledo over Bowling Green, Penn State over Purdue, Utah over Pittsburgh, North Carolina over Miami (Fla.), Temple over Buffalo, Missouri over Iowa State, Florida State over Duke, Georgia Tech over Virginia, South Florida over Connecticut, Kansas State over Texas Tech, Auburn over Florida, Georgia over Vanderbilt, Tulsa over UAB, Hawaii over San Jose State, and Wyoming over UNLV.

Last week: 32-7, season: 224-53, percentage: .809.

Week Six

2011-10-04T20:51:00.000-07:00

THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE HOME … under the “What were they thinking?” banner we can put the football programs at Nebraska, Texas A&M, Utah and Colorado … those four have been headliners in the rush to leave a long-established conference for supposedly greener pastures … Utah, which thought it could immediately move into contention in the Pac-12, finds itself 0-2 and a non-factor in the conference race after getting smacked at home, 31-14, by a so-so Washington team … and they may have to go with a Division II transfer at quarterback this Saturday after starter Jordan Wynn banged up his shoulder against the Huskies … things don’t get an easier for the Utes, with Arizona State coming to Salt Lake City on Saturday … Colorado, the other school that caused the old Pac-10 to change its name, blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at home in a 31-27 loss to perennial cellar-dweller Washington State and looks to have the South Division basement all to itself … next loss for the Bumbling Buffs? … on the road at No. 7 Stanford, which enters the game as a 27-point favorite and should cover that spread by halftime … Nebraska, meanwhile, which for years has been a dominant force in the Big 12 and the various corn-fed configurations that preceded that 12-team alignment, somehow decided it was a “better fit” in the Big 10 … well, how does 48-17 fit? … that’s the number Wisconsin laid on the Huskers in their Big 10 debut, making folks in Lincoln long for the days of Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor … which brings us to Texas A&M, which announced just last week that it was leaving its comfortable home in the Big 12 for the toughest league in the land, the Southeastern Conference … even the best of A&M teams are now doomed to mediocrity in a conference dominated by the likes of Alabama, LSU, Florida and a pack of others nipping at their heels … ironically, A&M was given a preview taste of what’s in store when it hosted SEC also-ran Arkansas and blew an 18-point halftime lead in a 42-38 loss … they say you can never go home again, but Nebraska, Texas A&M, Utah and Colorado are sure wishing they could right about now …

CROWDED AT THE TOP … as we near the midpoint of the season, there are 13 unbeatens in major college football, but only two will be selected for the national championship game Jan. 9 in New Orleans … although it’s not certain, this looks as if it might be another one of those years when three or more teams will finish the regular season unbeaten and someone – or some ones – will be left out in the cold … not that being unbeaten is a requirement to make it into the championship game … at the top are Alabama and LSU, but one will take care of the other when the two meet in Tuscaloosa Nov. 5 … Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are both unbeaten, but that situation will be rectified the first weekend in December when they butt heads in Stillwater … Oklahoma and Oklahoma State also both play another unbeaten in Texas … in fact, UO takes on the Longhorns Saturday at the Texas State Fair in Big D … the Big 10 has three unbeatens – Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois – but only the Badgers seem capable of running the table, especially since they’ve already eliminated their four toughest opponents in UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois and South Dakota … Wisconsin faces Illinois in Champaign on Nov. 19, but does not play Michigan … Michigan faces Illinois Nov. 12 in Champaign … Illinois, by the way, opened the season with five straight games at home … but wait, there’s more … Kansas State is unbeaten in Bill Snyder’s second coming, but still faces Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas … Georgia Tech and Clemson are both unbeaten, but meet October 29 in Atlanta … Stanford is unbeaten with speed bumps at USC Oct. 29 and Nov. 12 at home against Oregon … and Boise State is unbeaten, but certain to be favored the rest of the way against Fresno State, Colorado State, Air Force, UNLV, TCU, San Diego State, Wyoming and New Mexico … and hey, once-beaten Oregon (40-27 loss to LSU in the season opener) still thinks it might have a say in the national championship debate if it beats Stanford and wins out … stay tuned … things are about to get very interesting …

AIR WAR OVER CORVALLIS … given that Oregon State is 0-4 with a loss to I-AA Sacramento State, and Univ. of Arizona is 1-4 and riding a four-game losing streak, Saturday’s showdown in Corvallis qualifies as either the Crummy Game of the Week or the Disappointment Bowl, take your pick … but for folks who like a pass-happy, high-scoring shootout, this may be just the game for you … last week in a 35-20 loss at Arizona State, Beaver freshman quarterback Sean Mannion put the ball in the air 66 times, completing 40 – both school records, by the way - for 341 yards … actually, he completed 44 passes, but four of those went to the guys in the wrong-colored jerseys … meanwhile, on the floor of the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Arizona quarterback Nick Foles was doing his level best to play catch-up with mighty USC, completing 41 of 53 passes for 425 yards and four touchdowns … all to no avail, alas … USC won, 48-41 … the Wildcats, in fact, have given up 104 points in their last two games and 178 altogether in those four consecutive losses … coach Mike Stoops is scouring the intramural fields on the Tucson campus for anyone who can play defense … both Arizona and Oregon State see this as a “must-win” game … and they’re right … as the rules of college football are currently constituted, one team indeed “must” win …

GOTTA LOVE THOSE LUMBERING LUMBERJACKS … I don’t know about you, but I’m thrilled to see the Aggies playing a “throwback” game against the green-and-gold Lumberjacks from Humboldt State, the most misspelled school in the CSUS system (many folks forget the ‘d’) … and never mind that the Aggie Band-uh sometimes calls them the Limberjocks, there is a proud and defiant “us against the world” mentality on the Arcata campus that carries over to the football field … long ago, back in the days of the Far Western Conference and later the Northern California Athletic Conference, this was a spirited rivalry … in fact, before Jim Sochor took over at UC Davis in 1970 and produced 11 straight wins over the Jacks, there was no telling who might win when these two tangled … Humboldt, Sac State, Nevada and UCD are the last teams standing from the old FWC after Cal State Hayward, San Francisco State, Sonoma State and Chico State all dropped the sport … those who look at the win-loss record since the Aggies moved up to I-AA and lament the fact the school no longer plays at the Division II level, need look only at Humboldt State to see how difficult it is for a Division II school in California to put together a competitive schedule … the Jacks play the likes of Dixie State (Utah), Simon Fraser (British Columbia), Western Oregon, Central Washington and Mesa State (Colorado) … the kicker is – with the exception of Mesa State – they play each of those schools twice … and nothing kills fan interest quicker than to bring in a team you played just three weeks ago … the reason there are no California schools on the schedule other than UCD is that there are no other Division II football teams anywhere in in the state …

FOOTBALL IS A CONTACT SPORT … Illinois starting linebacker and defensive superstar Jonathan Brown has been suspended by head coach Ron Zook after he was flagged for kneeing Northwestern offensive lineman Patrick Ward in the – you’d better sit down – groin … you can watch it online if you’d like … those of us who saw it would like to suggest that a one-game suspension is woefully inadequate for such an intentional act to injure … said Zook of Brown: “He is a good person, a spiritual person and no one feels worse about it than him.” … not sure Patrick Ward’s groin would agree with the “no one feels worse” part of that statement … also not clear is which “spiritual” persuasion allows kneeing one’s opponent where it hurts, but I guess just about all spiritual folks believe in forgiveness … not to mention wearing a cup in combat …

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) Alabama, 2) Wisconsin, 3) LSU, 4) Oklahoma, 5) Stanford, 6) Oklahoma State, 7) Clemson, 8) Oregon, 9) Georgia Tech 10) Arkansas, 11) Michigan, 12) Texas, 13) West Virginia, 14) Auburn, 15) Illinois, 16) South Carolina, 17) Kansas State, 18) Baylor, 19) Virginia Tech, 20) Florida, 21) Nebraska, 22) Washington, 23) Arizona State, 24) Michigan State, 25) Houston

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) New Mexico, 119) Western Kentucky, 118) Alabama-Birmingham (not Tuscaloosa), 117) Miami, Ohio (not Florida), 116) Florida Atlantic, 115) Oregon State, 114) Arizona, 113) Colorado

This week’s picks are as follows:

OREGON over CAL (Thursday night) … things are just Ducky in Eugene, where Oregon’s offense is in high gear (69, 56, 56 in the last three games) and may just be unstoppable.

STANFORD over COLORADO … the Buffs will be petitioning for emergency re-entry into the old Big 12 after Andrew Luck and his Cardinal teammates get done with them. Stanford by 40.

NEBRASKA over OHIO STATE … the Cornhuskers, too, are looking for the safety and security of their warm and fuzzy home in the Big 12 after Wisconsin threw them a rude house-warming party last Saturday in Madison. Nebraska by 10.

ARIZONA STATE over UTAH … the Utes, at 0-2 in the Pac-12, are also looking to return to the softer pastures of their old conference. Arizona State by 6.

WASHINGTON STATE over UCLA … not only is Paul Wulff’s coaching seat not hot anymore, they’re talking contract extension in Pullman after last week’s dramatic comeback in Boulder. Cougs by 12.

BYU over SAN JOSE STATE … after last weekend’s last-second “Miracle Pass” against Utah State, the Boys from the Y think God is on their side. BYU by 21.

NOTRE DAME over AIR FORCE … Notre Dame is petitioning the NCAA for a do-over of the first two games of the season. Now that the schedule is easing up a bit, the Irish are eyeing a BCS bowl. Irish by 10.

OKLAHOMA over TEXAS … the horses in Norman are faster than the horses in Austin. Sooners by 21.

BOISE STATE over FRESNO STATE … in previous years this would be a major battle. Now the Broncos don’t even blink. Unfortunately, with so many unbeatens crowding the top tier of the rankings, the chance the Broncos will get a shot at that elusive national title game appears slim indeed. Boise by 20.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Oregon State over Arizona … and old-fashioned shootout in Corvallis results in the first Beaver victory of what looks like a very long season. There will be over 100 passes thrown before this one is over. Trust me on this. Beavers by 3. (Upset record: 0-5).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Illinois over Indiana … the Illini don’t make much noise about themselves, but they do keep winning the close ones. Illini by 17. (Rout record: 5-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: LSU over Florida … after last week’s rout at the hands of Alabama, the Gators are planning to sue the schedule-maker. Tigers by 11. (Don’t bet record: 1-4).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s sure winners are Alabama (over Vanderbilt), West Virginia (over Connecticut), Oklahoma State (over Kansas), Clemson (over Boston College) and UC Davis (over Humboldt State). (FEP record: 25-0).

AGGIES over HUMBOLDT STATE … a throwback game from Division II days. After a week off to recover from all that a 56-14 loss will do to one’s confidence, UC Davis puts it all together against its former rival from the Far Western Conference. Takes the Ags by 31.

OTHER GAMES: Georgia Tech over Maryland, Mississippi State over UAB, North Carolina over Louisville, Purdue over Minnesota, South Carolina over Kentucky, Florida State over Wake Forest, Rice over Memphis, Army over Miami (Ohio), Florida International over Akron, Toledo over Eastern Michigan, Missouri over Kansas State, Virginia Tech over Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh over Rutgers, Iowa over Penn State, Arkansas over Auburn, Michigan over Northwestern, Texas A&M over Texas Tech, Baylor over Iowa State, Houston over East Carolina, Georgia over Tennessee, Utah State over Wyoming, Syracuse over Tulane, and Nevada over UNLV.

Last week: 24-11, season: 192-46, percentage: .807.

Week Five

2011-09-27T21:34:00.000-07:00

A WIN OF SORTS … In last week’s Fearless Forecast I noted that our hometown Aggies, coming off a decent win over Univ. of San Diego, might be catching Hawaii at just the right moment, given that the Warriors had been badly thumped by a weak UNLV team the week before. I boldly went where no other forecasters dared to go when I said “Take the Aggies by 4.” This prompted a Jason to tell me he had lost his shirt on my advice and he was wondering “what in the world” I was thinking. I was wondering the same thing myself after Hawaii raced to a 49-0 halftime lead behind quarterback Bryant Moniz’s 424 yards and seven touchdown passes in two quarters of action. Unfortunately, due to an editing error, my original prediction to “Take the Aggies by 4 in the second half” was changed to simply “Take the Aggies by 4.” The rest of it ended up on the cutting room floor. The Aggies did indeed win the second half, 14-7. They simply ran out of time as Hawaii coach Greg McMackin scrambled to stem the tide by putting into the game an assortment of cheerleaders, season ticket holders and friends of University of Hawaii President M.R.C. Greenwood, herself a former Aggie. But Jason, you really shouldn’t be betting your shirt on games like this. Remember, all advice contained herein is for “entertainment purposes” only.

EVEN MORE POSTCARDS FROM HAWAII … Matthew at earthlink.net fired me an email shortly before kickoff, basically agreeing with my assessment that the Aggies were ripe for pulling a major upset in Honolulu. Wrote Matthew: “I just wanted to send you a note before the game started to say that if the Aggies get a couple of bounces their way, they stand a chance of upsetting the University of Hawaii Warriors at Aloha Stadium.” That’s it, a couple of bounces. That’s all they needed to overcome that 49-0 deficit. Added Matthew: “The game is off the board at virtually all of the sports websites. The best I could find was Hawaii favored by 30 points by vegasinsider.com.” Shoulda bet your shirt, Matthew.

OVERTIME SCORING EXPLAINED … Last week my friend Curt – on the second or third try – came up with the correct answer to the trivia question: “What’s the maximum number of points a college football team can win by in overtime?” The correct answer is 14. You get the ball first, score a touchdown and a two-point conversion. Then you either intercept or pick up a fumble and return it for a touchdown when the opposition has its turn with the ball. There is no PAT after the second touchdown. A 14-point win. Actually, I can make a case for just about any margin of victory between 1 and 14 occurring in overtime, except for 11 points. Margins of 1, 2 and 3 are obvious and frequently occur. A margin of four has probably never occurred because consecutive safeties by the same team aren’t possible in the overtime format. The game would end after the first safety. However, one team could score 7 points on its possession, then have that trimmed to four when the other team kicks a field goal. Not likely, but possible. I mean, only Sac State would decide to kick a field to keep the final score respectable when trailing by 7 points in overtime. Other possible overtime margins include 5 (field goal followed by a safety), 6 (touchdown), 7 (touchdown and extra point), 8 (touchdown and two-point conversion or touchdown and safety), 9 (field goal followed by defensive touchdown), 10 (touchdown and two-point conversion, followed by safety), 12 (touchdown followed by defensive touchdown), 13 (touchdown and extra point, followed by defensive touchdown) and 14 (touchdown and two-point conversion, followed by defensive touchdown.) Still can’t solve 11.

SPEAKING OF SNACK STATE … After Sacramento State’s crazy Hornets upset Oregon State in Week 1, I ranked them ninth in the nation. Then they lost by three touchdowns at Southern Utah and by more than that at Weber State, which dropped them into the “Snack State” category because opponents were feasting on them. So what do the Hornets do? They go out and knock off traditional I-AA power Montana for the first time in school history. And they do it convincingly. Which Hornet team will show up in Bozeman for a Big Sky showdown with the talented Bobcats? Stay tuned.

O FOR OREGON … You read it here first. Actually, you read it here several weeks ago. Oregon State, once futile and then mighty, is slip-sliding away. The Beavers are looking straight in the face of the first 0-12 campaign in school history. As the fight song says “I’m a Beaver born and a Beaver bred, and when I die I’ll be a Beaver dead.” After losses to Sac State and UCLA, these Beavers are dead.

CRUMMY GAME OF THE CENTURY … New Mexico State over New Mexico. Things have gotten so bad for the Lobos that they fired coach Mike Locksley after last weekend’s 48-45 loss to I-AA Sam Houston State. Not supposed to happen. Lest you think they fired the third-year coach over the result of one game, Locksley’s final mark with the Lobos, four games into this third season, was 2-26. Those other 25 losses and some off-field embarrassments were major contributors as well. Only 16,000-plus fans showed up for the latest loss, the worst crowd in Albuquerque in the last 19 years. In the big-money world of major college football, that’s the worst offense of all.

HOLD THE PRESSES … Toledo leads Syracuse 27-23 late in the fourth quarter. Syracuse scores a touchdown and kicks the extra point to go ahead 30-27 with 2:07 to play. Toledo ties it with a last-second field goal, but Syracuse prevails in overtime, 33-30. But wait, after Syracuse’s late-game, go-ahead touchdown, the extra point had to be reviewed by the replay booth, which eventually upheld the call on the field that the kick was good. The next day Big East Conference coordinator of officiating Terry McAulay issued the following statement: “After studying videos of the Syracuse extra point attempt at 2:07 of the fourth quarter, we have concluded that the ruling on the field that the kick passed between the uprights was incorrect, and that the replay official made an error in failing to reverse that ruling. In reviewing the video, we have determined that the angle from behind the kicking team shows conclusively that the ball passes outside the right upright.” An independent video review by the Above-Picture Blogger also reveals that the kick very clearly did not pass through the goal posts. Not even a close call. So, Toledo wins, 30-29, right? Wrong. Whatever the score is when the game is declared over remains as the final score, no matter how many errors were made in reaching that score. Toledo is demanding victory. Syracuse could be gracious and say “here, it’s yours, we don’t want to win that way,” but the NCAA probably wouldn’t reverse the result anyway. Besides, you can’t say for sure that had the correct call been made and Syracuse’s lead reduced to just 29-27, that Toledo would have marched down the field to that exact spot and successfully kicked a field goal. Needing only a field goal to win, instead of to tie, might have created a different play-calling scenario. Or, even if the kick had been set up the same, Syracuse’s defensive strategy might have been different. At 30-27, you’d have to leave a couple of guys back to watch for a fake. At 29-27, nobody is going to fake a field goal and you rush all 11, perhaps creating a different result. The solution to all this is to have competent people in the replay booth who will take the time to make sure they got it right. Short of that, do away with replay altogether or go back to playing the game the way God intended. I don’t know how this one could have been reviewed and not reversed. Somehow the whole nation could see what one replay official couldn’t. Toledo will have to put an asterisk next to this one in the school record book with the notation “We was robbed.”

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Wisconsin, 5) Boise State, 6) Oregon, 7) Stanford, 8) Oklahoma State, 9) Florida, 10) Nebraska, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) South Carolina, 13) Clemson, 14) Baylor, 15) Texas A&M, 16) Georgia Tech, 17) TCU, 18) Arkansas, 19) Michigan, 20) Illinois, 21) South Florida, 22) Arizona State, 23) Michigan State, 24) West Virginia, 25) Florida State.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) State of New Mexico (1-7), 119) Oregon State (0-3), 118) UNLV (1-3), 117) Arizona (1-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over UCLA … the road will get considerably tougher for the Cardinal soon enough, so for now they’ll feast on what’s available. UCLA did survive the Futility Bowl against Oregon State, but didn’t bring away much to build on, save for a win.

CLEMSON over VIRGINIA TECH … the best game of the game, bar none.

COLORADO over WASHINGTON STATE … the Buffs picks up their first Pac-12 victory.

USC over ARIZONA … behind Nick Foles, Arizona moved the ball admirably in a lopsided loss to Oregon. If the Wildcats can figure out some defense, USC is ripe for the plucking. Then again, Arizona has been outscored so badly in three straight losses that No. 4 seems almost inevitable.

ARIZONA STATE over OREGON STATE … Dennis Erickson picks up an easy victory over a team he used to coach. Then again, is there a team out there that Dennis Erickson didn’t used to coach?

UTAH over WASHINGTON … my would the Utes like to play USC again.

NOTRE DAME over PURDUE … the Irish are one of the most talented teams in the entire country, but consistently shoot themselves in the foot, turning sure routs into barn-burners.

ALABAMA over FLORIDA … anyone who thinks the SEC isn’t the toughest league in the country, week in and week out, doesn’t understand college football.

WISCONSIN over NEBRASKA … welcome to the Big 10 you wayward Huskers.

GEORGIA TECH over NORTH CAROLINA STATE … watch out for the Ramblin’ Wreck, which is running up and down the field with the greatest of ease.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Mississippi State over Georgia … the Bulldogs win this one, guaranteed. (Upset record: 0-4).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Penn State over Indiana … Joe Pa simply doesn’t have the horses this year, but he doesn’t need any horses to bowl over lowly Indiana. (Rout record: 4-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Baylor over Kansas State … Robert Griffin III is the real deal. 13 touchdown passes so far and just 12 incompletions. He may just lead the Baylor Bears to the promised land after years of futility. (Don’t bet record: 1-3).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s guaranteed victors are Oklahoma (over Ball State), Tennessee (over Buffalo), Michigan (over Minnesota), LSU (over Kentucky) and Boise State (over Nevada). (FEP record: 20-0).

EMBARRASSING GAME OF THE WEEK: Miami (Fla.) over Bethune-Cookman. Remember when the Aggies played Bethune-Cookman in the Division II playoffs years ago? They’ll call this one at halftime.

OTHER GAMES: BYU over Utah State, Texas A&M over Arkansas, Texas Tech over Kansas, Cincinnati over Miami (Ohio), South Carolina over Auburn, TCU over SMU, West Virginia over Bowling Green, Louisville over Marshall, Maryland over Towson, Ohio State over Michigan State, Virginia over Idaho, Texas over Iowa State, Tulsa over North Texas, Southern Mississippi over Rice, Louisiana Tech over Hawaii, San Jose State over Colorado State, and Fresno State over Mississippi.

Last week: 34-9, season: 168-35, percentage: .828.

Week Four

2011-09-19T22:49:00.000-07:00

STOP THE MADNESS … the Univ. of Texas got this conference wrecking ball rolling when it partnered with ESPN to form the Longhorn Network, designed to bring riches to Austin at the expense of its partners in the Big 12. This move didn’t sit well with the league’s other members, especially archrival Texas A&M, which immediately bolted for the best league in college football, the Southeastern Conference. While the move hasn’t been finalized, that leaves the “Big 12” with just nine schools – Colorado having already bolted to the former Pac-10, now Pac-12, and Nebraska joining the Big 10 (which actually has 12 schools). And now we hear that Oklahoma is being wooed by the Pac-12, causing Sooner head coach Bob Stoops to declare that potentially losing the long-standing Red River rivalry against Texas would be “no big deal.” Texas Christian, meanwhile, is already regretting its decision to join the Big East after Pittsburgh and Syracuse declared just this week that they both were bolting for the Atlantic Coast Conference. Now, I don’t know about you, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense for a school from Fort Worth to be playing in the Big East. Then again, how sensible is it for Utah and Colorado to be affiliated with a conference that has always had “Pacific,” as in ocean, in its title? Put simply, Oklahoma has absolutely no business residing in a league that used to be known as the Pacific Coast Conference. I mean, I’m still getting used to the idea of letting Arizona and Arizona State join this hallowed collection of West Coast schools. Left out in all this discussion of potential “super conferences” are folks like you and me, who happen to like the longstanding rivalry games. We’d much rather see Cal play USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon and Washington than suddenly see the Golden Bears thrust into the “Southwestern Division” of a 16-team super conference and try to force unnatural rivalries with the likes of Oklahoma State and – who knows? – Baylor. Or Texas Tech. After admitting Nebraska and growing to 12 teams, the Big 10 awkwardly and embarrassingly named its resulting two divisions “Legends” and “Leaders,” and put Michigan and Ohio State in opposite divisions. Which is about as goofy as it gets. Rivalries mean an awful lot to us, the loyal fans, and in many cases they’re what keeps interest in the season alive after your cherished alma mater has started the season 0-3. Ah yes, Oregon State fans might say, we may be winless, but those hated Washington Huskies are coming to town Saturday afternoon, so we’d better get our tickets now.

FANS TURN THUMBS DOWN ON REALIGNMENT … most of us, it seems, don’t like change. And now, thanks to KRC Research, we know that fans in the Big 12 overwhelmingly don’t like change. Especially when it comes to football. In a study commissioned by Baylor University, KRC polled 1,500 college graduates within Big 12 states and reports that 76 percent are opposed to the concept of super conferences. Texas coach Mack Brown, apparently, was one of those polled. Said the longtime Longhorn coach: “As much as we talk about money, as much as we talk about college football, as much as we talk about realignment, as much as we talk about great games, playoffs and all that stuff, we better go back and make sure that we’re taking care of the players and that the players and the high school coaches are always considered in the equation.” Not to mention the fans, coach. Added Brown: “Because if not, we’re not going to have a game, and they’re the ones that are playing. And, for parents to travel all the way across the country is going to put a bigger burden on them. Right now, with the regional leagues, parents can go see their kids play, and that’s really important because these kids are working their guts out year-round for us to have a show on Saturday that everyone enjoys. College football’s as great as it’s ever been, but we better keep considering what’s in the best interest of the players or at some point they’re going to get so frustrated it won’t be fun for them.” Amen.

AND ONE MORE THING … for a minute let’s forget about USC and Alabama and LSU and Florida and Oklahoma and the handful of other schools that know they’ll always be competing for a conference championship, no matter how “super” the conference or how big the league … but when you drop down a rung – or two – to schools where competing for a conference championship comes around only once a generation, or longer, a super conference merely dooms them to perpetual mediocrity. Does anyone seriously think that Cal or Washington State or Oregon State or Arizona or Arizona State or UCLA will ever seriously compete for the championship in a 16-team “Super Pac-12” that includes Texas and Oklahoma and God knows how many other interlopers from halfway across the country? That’s not good for the fans or the players and it’s certainly not good for college football. Mack Brown seems to get that. It’s too bad that more of his coaching counterparts don’t.

HALL OF SHAME … apparently no one was seriously injured in Cal’s 63-12 dismantling of tiny Presbyterian, a weaker-than-your-little-sister FCS school with just 600 male students. Truth be known, the Bears could have scored on every single play against the Blue Hose, who, despite their nickname, actually showed up for the coin toss wearing white sox. It was the 75th win at Cal for Golden Bear head coach Jeff Tedford, making him the all-time winningest coach in Berkeley, but it had to be nothing short of embarrassing for Tedford to have the win come at the expense of such an unworthy foe. Glancing at the far-from-capacity crowd of 33,952 at AT&T Park, Tedford noted “It felt a little dead out there, to be honest with you.” One wonders why. Could it have been the fact that Presbyterian managed just three first downs in the entire game and rolled up a meager 48 yards of total offense, including yardage credited for running from the locker room to the playing field at the start of each half? (PC’s two touchdowns came from one defensive player, Justin Bethel, who ran back an interception for a touchdown and also blocked a punt and took it in for a score.) Now 3-0 and undaunted by its shameless victory, Cal has declared its intention to play an “independent” schedule in 2012 against a full slate of religious schools, including such powers as the Univ. of Mary, Texas Lutheran, Ohio Dominican, Maranatha Baptist, Incarnate Word, St. Anselm, Thomas More, St. Norbert, East Texas Baptist, Kentucky Christian, Presentation, Assumption and St. Scholastica. We’ll see how dead things seem after those games.

TAKE A HORNET TO LUNCH … when perpetually downtrodden I-AA also-ran Sacramento State stunned the college football world with a dramatic 29-28 overtime victory over Oregon State there was talk of the Hornets finally earning a BCS playoff bid and even playing for the national championship. In their excitement, long-suffering Sac State fans, drunk with victory, began snapping up Rose Bowl tickets. Certainly, at least, the elusive Big Sky Conference championship was finally within Sac State’s reach. As they proved in Corvallis, the Hornets were talented, poised and above all, confident. My what a difference two weeks can make. The Hornets followed their win in the Beaver State with a flatter-than-a-pancake 35-14 loss to a so-so Southern Utah team, then opened Big Sky play with a thud, falling to no-name Weber State, 49-17. Stating the obvious, Hornet coach Marshall Sperbeck said, “Obviously, we didn’t play as well as we could have.” You can say that again, coach. “Obviously, we didn’t play as well as we could have,” Sperbeck added. After the win over Oregon State, The Sacramento Bee reported a renewed buzz surrounding Sac State football, which makes sense given that both the hometown newspaper and the hometown college are named after stinging insects that buzz. The Hornet defense, which seemed so “in sync” at Oregon State, gave up a whopping 522 yards to the Weber Wildcats. Opposing offenses have been feasting so mightily on the Hornet defense the last two weeks that they’ve taking to calling the school Snack State.

HEAVEN SENT … those of us who just can’t get enough college football on our televisions were thrilled when Saturday night’s scheduled showdown between Tulsa and Oklahoma State – already scheduled for an unusually late 9:10 p.m. start in Tulsa – was delayed over three hours by a tornado warning. They finally kicked off at 12:16 a.m. Sunday, Tulsa time, and didn’t finish until 3:35 a.m. Lots of folks late for Mass in the Diocese of Tulsa on Sunday morning.

IT’S NOT NICE TO BRAG … despite UC Davis’ 0-2 record and San Diego’s 2-0 mark, the Above-Pictured Blogger wrote “Takes the Ags by 28” when issuing last week’s Fearless Forecast. The final: UC Davis 31, San Diego 3. Too bad this game wasn’t on the board in Boomtown.

FUZZY MATH … ESPN’s math-challenged crew on the BYU-Utah game reminded me that Brigham Young, down by 23 at the time, needed three touchdowns and “at least one two-point conversion” to draw even in the game. Last time I checked, three touchdowns, two PAT kicks and one two-point conversion would result in 22 points. I guess that’s why these guys are in the booth and not on the field.

SPEAKING OF MATH … no winners yet to the difficult question: What’s the maximum number of points a college football team can win by in overtime. My friend Curt gave it a futile stab, but failed. Close, but no cigar. The contest remains open.

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Wisconsin, 4) Stanford, 5) Alabama, 6) Boise State, 7) Oklahoma State, 8) Texas A&M, 9) Florida State, 10) Florida, 11) Oregon, 12) Nebraska, 13) Arkansas, 14) Georgia Tech, 15) Baylor, 16) South Florida, 17) West Virginia, 18) USC, 19) Illinois, 20) TCU, 21) Texas, 22) South Carolina, 23) Virginia Tech, 24) Utah, 25) Clemson.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) North Texas (0-3), 119) Catholic Schools (1-5), 118) Oregon State (0-2), 117) Arizona (1-2), 116) UCLA (1-2).

This week’s picks are as follows:

WASHINGTON over CAL … the Huskies will not be wearing Blue Hose. Washington by 7.

OREGON over ARIZONA … the Wildcats thought this might be the year they finally get over the hump and truly compete for the conference title. They’re learning very quickly that the hump is much larger than anticipated. The Ducks have way too many weapons to falter on the desert. Oregon by 24.

LSU over WEST VIRGINIA … the best defense in college football gets a severe road test and emerges unscathed. The Bayou Bengals are by no means loaded, but there is no more determined team in college football. LSU by 17.

OREGON STATE over UCLA … the loser of this one will not win another game and fans will be calling for the coach’s head. Come to think of it, even the winner of this one is not likely to win another game and fans will be calling for the coach’s head. Two teams caught in a downward spiral and very lucky to be meeting each other this early in the season. I mean, someone has to win, right? Beavers by one-half point.

BOISE STATE over TULSA … the Broncos keep rolling merrily along, hoping against hope that this is the year everyone ahead of them falters and they finally get a chance to play for the national championship. It’s awfully early to make this call, but only TCU (Nov. 12 in Boise) stands between Boise and a perfect regular season. Boise by 20.

ALABAMA over ARKANSAS … one day Alabama’s lack of offense may cost the Tide a victory, but as long as the defense holds up, they’ll score enough to beat the talented Hogs. Bama by 8.

OKLAHOMA STATE over TEXAS A&M … the Cowboys are rocking and rolling with the best team in school history. OSU by 3.

NOTRE DAME over PITTSBURGH … have the Irish finally found the winning formula? Nope, but the schedule is easing up a bit and Notre Dame has a chance to regain its bearings and put together a mild winning streak. Irish by 14.

MISSISSIPPI STATE over LOUISIANA TECH … I absolutely, positively, 100-percent guarantee that the Bulldogs will win this game. MSU by 30.

MICHIGAN over SAN DIEGO STATE … the Brady Bowl, as Wolverine coach Brady Hoke tries to explain to his old team why he’s now coaching his new team. Must be that winters in Ann Arbor are finer than winters in San Diego. Michigan by 12.

PENN STATE over EASTERN MICHIGAN … after routing Temple, 14-10, with late-game heroics, the Nittany Lions continue their march through the weak sisters of Division I. PSU by 22.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: USC over Arizona State … hey, I don’t make the point spreads, I just report them. And oddsmakers all over the country are calling this one for the Sun Devils. They’re wrong. (Upset record: 0-3). Trojans by 14.

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Nebraska over Wyoming … good for the Huskers for making the trip to Laramie – at elevation 7,220, the highest venue in major college football - to play in smallish (29,181-seat) War Memorial Stadium. Most “big-time” programs wouldn’t dream of such a concession. A big, big day for Cowboy fans. (Rout record: 3-0). Huskers by 40.

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over Idaho … the Bulldogs came ever so close to losing to North Dakota last week and will have their hands full in the Kibbie Dome. This is not one of Pat Hill’s scarier teams. (Don’t bet record: 0-3). Bulldogs by 5.

FIVE EASY PICKS: Bet the rent on these, Martha. This week’s sure winners are TCU (over Portland State), Wisconsin (over South Dakota), South Florida (over Texas-El Paso), Houston (over Georgia State) and Oklahoma (over Missouri). (FEP record: 15-0).

AGGIES over HAWAII … this game starts so late, ESPN is listing it as a “Sunday, September 25” game. Which it is if your network has an East Coast bias. You know, when I first saw this game on the schedule, I said “no way.” A sure Hawaii win. Then, after I watched Hawaii embarrass Colorado and give Washington a run for its money, I was more certain than ever that the pass-happy Warriors simply had too many weapons for a game, but outmanned, Aggie defense. But late last Saturday night Hawaii barely showed up in Las Vegas’ Sam Boyd Stadium and laid a giant egg against formerly winless UNLV. Suddenly, the Warriors look very, very vulnerable. The Aggies, meanwhile, finally tasted victory after two lopsided road losses. Shades of Stanford in 2005. Take the Ags by 4.

OTHER GAMES: Florida State over Clemson, Georgia Tech over North Carolina, Miami (Fla.) over Kansas State, Michigan State over Central Michigan, SMU over Memphis, Iowa over Louisiana-Monroe, Georgia over Mississippi, Maryland over Temple, Boston College over Massachusetts, Air Force over Tennessee State, Virginia Tech over Marshall, Ohio State over Colorado, Illinois over Western Michigan, Northern Illinois over Cal Poly, Connecticut over Buffalo, South Carolina over Vanderbilt, Florida over Kentucky, Baylor over Rice, Auburn over Florida Atlantic, Minnesota over North Dakota State, Utah State over Colorado State, UNLV over Southern Utah, and Texas Tech over Nevada.

Last week: 40-9, season: 134-26, percentage: .838

Week Three

2011-09-14T16:12:00.000-07:00

SAY IT AIN’T SO … for years the world has marveled at the meteoric rise of once-humble Boise State, from Division II through Division I-AA and finally to regular top 10 finishes among the nation’s major colleges. And now we hear the Broncos have been hit with three years probation for “major violations” and “lack of institutional control” in football and four other sports. Boise will lose nine football scholarships over a three-year period, and in the height of silliness, will be allowed to have only nine contact practices – instead of 12 – each spring for the next three years. It will also be required to paint its world-famous blue turf a deep shade of red for extreme embarrassment.

GAMBLERS BEWARE … USC entered last week’s Pac-12 showdown with Utah as an 8 1/2 –point favorite. On the final play of the game, with USC leading 17-14, Utah lined up for a 41-yard field goal to tie the game and send this tense affair into overtime. The kick was blocked, however, by USC left tackle Matt Kalil and the ball bounced directly into the hands of Trojan cornerback Torin Harris, who ran untouched to the end zone for a nine-point USC win. Or even 10 (or 11) if they had decided to attempt the meaningless conversion, which they didn’t. Jubilation not just for USC fans, but for all those who put money on the Trojans to cover that 8 ½-point spread. But wait. After huddling for far too long at midfield, game officials decided to disallow the touchdown because seemingly half the USC bench, plus assorted coaches, were running down the field in celebration as Harris was chugging toward the goal line. Under a new rule for 2011, because flags were thrown before Harris reached the end zone, the touchdown was disallowed and the final score reverted to 17-14. Jubilation for Utah bettors, if not for Utah fans. But wait. Two hours after the game the Pac-12 decided the officials had misinterpreted the new rule and put the touchdown back on the board. Final score: USC 23, Utah 14. Jubilation once again for USC bettors. At least those who hadn’t already shredded their tickets or tossed them on the floor and stomped out of whatever Nevada sportsbook they frequent. Presumably, once the Pac-12 got into the act, there was a mad scramble for all those discarded tickets on the floor of every casino in Nevada. According to the Pac-12, “All unsportsmanlike conduct fouls by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Since the game was over, the penalty could not be enforced and the referee stated it was declined by rule.” As my eight-year-old would say, “Whatever.” Some Utah bettors were able to cash “winning” tickets before the touchdown was restored, and those USC bettors lucky enough to hold onto their tickets until after the Pac-12 ruling were able to cash in as well. And doesn’t it just kill you when the Las Vegas casinos take a beating?

SHATTERING A GRIDIRON MYTH … for years and years and years, we’ve been told by coaches and commentators alike that “time of possession” is one of the key elements of a football game. The team who “possesses” the ball longer is almost certain to win. Unless, of course, that team is Oregon, with its score-from-anywhere, three-points-a-minute offense. In crushing the once-great and always-proud NevadaWolfpack last Saturday afternoon in Autzen Stadium, the Ducks held the ball for a mere 21 minutes compared to 38 for the Wolfpack. It was 48-7 with the second half barely underway before Oregon head coach Chip-on-his-shoulder Kelly called off the Ducks. Oregon managed to score 69 points in those 21 minutes. Nevada just 20 in its 38 minutes. So much for time of possession.

MORE ON TIME OF POSSESSION … another favorite of commentators is that “the defense has been on the field too long and is really gassed.” Okay, but hasn’t the other guy’s offense been on the field just as long as the opposition’s defense? Shouldn’t the offense be “gassed” as well, especially if it runs down the field as fast as Oregon does?

GREAT READING … not to be missed in the Sept. 12 Sports Illustrated is S.L. Price’s in-depth look at the long coaching history of TCU’s Gary Patterson, formerly an assistant at UC Davis. Turns out Price, a Sacramento Bee sportswriter at the time, and Patterson, were roommates in Davis.

NOTRE SHAME … how can it be that a school with the name “Notre Dame” could lose on a Hail Mary with two seconds left? The Blessed Mother must have had Saturday off. Another sure sign The End is near.

PRE-GAME SNAFU … first, someone poisons Auburn’s famous Toomer’s Oaks, and now we learn that the Auburn War Eagle, a bald eagle by the name of Spirit, crashed into a luxury box at Jordan-Hare Stadium during his regular pre-game ritual flight. Seems the 14-year-old mascot got nervous about Auburn’s date with powerful Mississippi State and simply lost his bearings before returning to his handler on the field. After an overnight stay at the Southeastern Raptor Center, Spirit has been declared fit for action. If it happens again, he may seek a medical hardship year from the NCAA. It’s anyone’s guess why he cracked into the glass of the luxury box, but if you’ve seen some of those Auburn super boosters put away the food, he may just have been looking for something to eat.

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) Oklahoma, 2) Alabama, 3) Boise State, 4) LSU, 5) Wisconsin, 6) Stanford, 7) Oklahoma State, 8) South Carolina, 9) Florida State, 10) Texas A&M, 11) Auburn, 12) Baylor, 13) Arkansas, 14) Florida, 15) Virginia Tech, 16) South Florida, 17) West Virginia, 18) Texas Christian, 19) Arizona State, 20) Oregon, 21) Mississippi State, 22) USC, 23) Michigan, 24) Texas, 25) Washington State.

BOTTOM FEEDERS … 120) Catholic Schools (0-4), 119) Oregon State 0-2, 118) New Mexico (0-2), 117) Indiana (0-2), 116) State of Nevada (0-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over ARIZONA … this may end up being the best game of the weekend. With a late Saturday night start, it’ll easily be the last game of the weekend. A tough early test for the Cardinal, with two of the nation’s best quarterbacks displaying their wares. Fortunately, one of them is wearing Stanford red. Stanford by 13.

OKLAHOMA over FLORIDA STATE … Barry Switzer outsmarts Bobby Bowden. No, wait. I have my generations mixed up. For sure, Gordon MacRae will lead the Sooners to victory. Oklahoma by 7.

OKLAHOMA STATE over TULSA … T. Boone Pickens U. is about to give the Sooners a run for their money in the race for state supremacy. Cowboys by 35.

NEBRASKA over WASHINGTON … for sure, the mascot beginning with the letters “H-U-S-K” will win this game. The Huskies find out in a hurry just how long the road back to respectability really is. Huskers by 17.

WISCONSIN over NORTHERN ILLINOIS … the Badgers are beginning to emerge as the class of the Big 10. Everyone else is an also-ran. Wisconsin by 21.

USC over SYRACUSE … it won’t be pretty, but once again the men of Troy will score just enough points to emerge victorious. USC by 8. But don’t bet on it.

TEXAS over UCLA … the Horns finally showed some promise in an impressive come-from-behind win over BYU last week, while the Bruins struggled mightily with lowly San Jose State. Plus, there’s a little payback involved in this game. Texas by 12.

ARIZONA STATE over ILLINOIS … Dennis Erickson keeps telling anyone who will listen that this Sun Devil team is for real. It better be, or Dennis will be added to those miserable unemployment statistics at the end of the year. ASU by 10.

AUBURN over CLEMSON … hey, they’re the national champions until someone proves otherwise. Tigers by 4.

UTAH over BRIGHAM YOUNG … all kinds of bragging rights on the line in this one. BYU’s offense hasn’t exactly exploded into an orgy of touchdowns as everyone figured it would, and Utah’s defense is more than up for the challenge. Utah by 1.

BOISE STATE over TOLEDO … not the easiest of road games. For a no-name, no-respect opponent, Toledo can be terrifying. Just ask Ohio State. Broncos by 14.

OHIO STATE over MIAMI (Fla.) … two storied programs mired in controversy and penalties. They may ban both teams before this one is over. Buckeyes by 6.

KANSAS STATE over KENT STATE … a sure win for K. State. Guaranteed. Wildcats by 22.

COLORADO over COLORADO STATE … no contest in what used to be a Rocky Mountain shootout. Buffs by 20.

ARKANSAS over TROY … the Real Men of Troy live in Southern California. Hogs by 30.

OREGON STATE ORANGE over OREGON STATE BLACK … the Beavers finally find a game they can win. Unfortunately, it’s an intrasquad game during their bye week.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Washington State over San Diego State … one more win and Paul Wulff can sign a new multi-year contract. They haven’t been this excited in the Palouse since that record wheat harvest in 1952. Wazzu by 4. (Upset record: 0-2)

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Cal over Presbyterian … the Blue Hose roughed up powerful North Greenville last week after losing a squeaker to Wofford the week before, so this may not be the Bakery League cream puff the Bears envisioned. Nevertheless, that record-setting 127-0 Cal win over St. Mary’s in 1920 may be in jeopardy. First Bear fan to yell “Take off those Blue Hose” will be ejected from the stadium. And no messing with the spelling of “Hose,” all you clever Cal students. By the way, the Blue Hose student body consists of just 1,200 hardy souls, only 600 of whom are men. A high percentage of those 600, apparently, play football. Or maybe some of the women play too. The Golden Bears could literally score on every play is they so desired. Jeff Tedford’s pre-game speech will consist of showing his players how to fall down gracefully after a 10-yard gain, even if there is no defender in sight. After all, once the score reaches 80 or 90 to nothing, it ceases to impress the pollsters. It just indicates how terrible the opposition is. Cal by 128. (Rout record: 2-0)

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Michigan State over Notre Dame … not only are the Irish giving away games in the final seconds, now the Catholic press is all over head coach Brian Kelly for his foul-mouthed sideline tirades. The poor guy can’t win. Literally. Spartans by 3. (Don’t bet record: 0-2).

FIVE EASY PICKS … these games are so lopsided it’s embarrassing. The only way these five don’t win is if the opposition refuses to come out of the locker room for the coin toss. This week’s sure winners are Oregon (over Missouri State), Michigan (over Eastern Michigan), Texas A&M (over Idaho), Alabama (over North Texas) and Georgia (over Coastal Carolina). (FEP record: 10-0).

WORST GAME OF THE WEEK: Boston College over Duke … look out, someone may actually score a touchdown in this one. BC by 4.

UC DAVIS AGGIES over SAN DIEGO … in racing to a 2-0 record, the Toreros have outscored the opposition 72-50. In stumbling to an 0-2 record, the Aggies have been outscored by the opposition 86-28. No contest, right? Right. Beating Azusa Pacific and Western New Mexico is hardly the equivalent of going up against Arizona State and Montana State. The Toreros haven’t been the same since Jim Harbaugh headed north. Take the Ags by 28.

OTHER GAMES: Penn State over Temple, Purdue over Southeast Missouri, Mississippi over Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech over Kansas, Boston College over Duke, TCU over Louisiana-Monroe, Florida over Tennessee, Indiana over South Carolina State, North Carolina over Virginia, Texas Tech over New Mexico, Northwestern over Army, Cincinnati over Akron, Virginia Tech over Arkansas State, South Carolina over Navy, Wake Forest over Gardner-Webb, Baylor over Stephen F. Austin, South Florida over Florida A&M, Kentucky over Louisville, Missouri over Western Illinois, Houston over Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi over Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Methodist over Northwestern State, Hawaii over UNLV, Fresno State over North Dakota, and Nevada over San Jose State.

Last week: 37-10, season: 98-18, percentage: .845.

Week Two

2011-09-06T23:04:00.000-07:00

WEEK TWO

DREAMS DASHED … last week fully half of the teams who took the field had their dreams of a national championship smashed to pieces … more smashing will occur this weekend.

SHORT FUSE … after spring practice and fall camp, you’d think it would have been easy for Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly to pick a starting quarterback he could stick with … well, it took Kelly all of one half of one football game to yank starter Dayne Crist in favor of Tommy Rees … at a place like Notre Dame, had the kid’s last name been “Christ,” he’d still be the starting quarterback.

TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE WEEK: What is the maximum number of points a college football team can win by in overtime?

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) Oklahoma, 2) LSU, 3) Boise State, 4) Alabama, 5) Texas A&M, 6) Stanford, 7) Wisconsin, 8) Oklahoma State, 9) Sacramento State, 10) Nebraska, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Oregon, 13) South Carolina, 14) Mississippi State, 15) Baylor, 16) Penn State, 17) Florida, 18) South Florida, 19) West Virginia, 20) Arizona State, 21) Brigham Young, 22) Northwestern, 23) Arizona State, 24) USC, 25) California.

THE OTHER END … 120) State of Oregon (0-2), 119) State of New Mexico (0-2), 118) Catholic Schools (0-2), 117) Bulldogs (1-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

ALABAMA over PENN STATE … the winner gets a leg up in the national title hunt. A rare early-season showdown when other schools tend to fatten their win-loss record. Bama by 20.

MISSISSIPPI STATE over AUBURN … the defending national champions were lucky to beat lowly Utah State last week. They won’t be so lucky this time. Bulldogs by 4.

CAL over COLORADO … no, this is not a Pac-12 game. Or even a Pac-10 game. It was scheduled before Ralphie and the Buffaloes joined the westward expansion in college football. Therefore it does not count in the conference standings. Besides, Colorado has yet to prove it belongs in this conference. Cal, meanwhile, may be the league’s sleeper as it breaks in a talented new quarterback. Bears by 17.

STANFORD over DUKE … it’s being called the Battle of the SATs. Which is a good thing for the Dukies, because if we’re talking football here, the Blue Devils are decidedly on the short end of the stick. Stanford by 40.

OREGON over NEVADA … last week Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas said the season would pretty much be over if Ducks lost to LSU. After the Ducks did, indeed, lose to LSU, Thomas predictably started saying the Ducks still have a lot to play for. But they’d better not overlook always dangerous Nevada, coming off the greatest season and highest ranking in school history. Oregon by 14.

WASHINGTON STATE over UNLV … the Cougars are attempting to open 2-0 for the first time since Tupperware was invented, but with starting quarterback Jeff Tuel on the injured list, this season is nowhere near as bright as it once appeared. Wazzu by 10.

UCLA over SAN JOSE STATE … the Bruins definitely “Know the Way to San Jose” if we’re talking about the Spartan end zone. This one won’t be close. Bruins by 62.

WASHINGTON over HAWAII … homefield advantage to the Huskies, who survived an enormous scare last week from defending FCS champion Eastern Washington. Huskies by 1.

BYU over TEXAS … I keep telling people, the Boys from the Y are for real this year. BYU by 5.

NEBRASKA over FRESNO STATE … maybe it’s time for Pat Hill to rethink that “anyone, anywhere, anytime” philosophy. Huskers by 35.

SOUTH CAROLINA over GEORGIA … bad year for Bulldogs (see Fresno State). Gamecocks by 3.

TCU over AIR FORCE … the Horned Frogs are just too darn good to lose two in a row. Frogs by 10.

ARIZONA STATE over MISSOURI … Dennis Erickson is not messing around this year. The Devils are loaded and ready to rumble. Sun Devils by 14.

OHIO STATE over TOLEDO … the Buckeyes continue their march through everyone in Ohio who plays football. Next up, Moeller. Ohio State by 38.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Utah over USC … until they emerge from under their bowl-less blanket, the Trojans appear relatively unmotivated from week to week. Otherwise, how to explain last week’s squeaker at miserable Minnesota? The Utes are anxious to make a statement that they belong in the Pac-12. No better place to do it than at the Los Angeles Coliseum. Utes by 4. (Upset record: 0-1).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Wisconsin over Oregon State … let me be the first to say the meager Beavers will not win a football game this year. They especially won’t win at Wisconsin, which should be included in the conversation any time the words “national championship” come up. Badgers by 50. (Rout record: 1-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Notre Dame over Michigan … this used to be one of the biggest games on the college football landscape, but no more. The Irish desperately need a win after high expectations were dashed with last week’s miserable home performance against South Florida. Irish by 7. (Don’t bet record: 0-1).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s money-back-guaranteed winners are Arkansas (over New Mexico), South Florida (over Ball State), LSU (over Northwestern State), West Virginia (over Norfolk State) and Florida State (over Charleston Southern). (FEP record: 5-0).

WORST GAME OF THE WEEK: Minnesota over New Mexico State … the perpetually rebuilding Gophers finally pick on someone their own size. Gophers by 21.

EMBARRASSMENT OF THE WEEK: Houston over North Texas … my goodness gracious, the Cougars will have six touchdowns by halftime. Houston by 47.

UC DAVIS over MONTANA STATE … both teams stepped into the Pac-12 last week and both were overwhelmed by superior foes, but the Bobcats did manage to keep it close at Utah. Too much talent at UC Davis to start 0-2, but this one won’t be easy. Aggies by 6.

OTHER GAMES: Louisville over Florida International, Michigan State over Florida Atlantic, Iowa over Iowa State, Kentucky over Central Michigan, San Diego State over Army, Pittsburgh over Maine, Colorado State over Northern Colorado, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, Northwestern over Eastern Illinois, North Carolina State over Wake Forest, Clemson over Wofford, Southern Mississippi over Marshall, Tennessee over Cincinnati, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Mississippi over Southern Illinois, Florida over Alabama-Birmingham, Navy over Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech over Central Arkansas, Illinois over South Dakota State, SMU over UTEP, Utah State over Weber State, and Wyoming over Texas State.

Last week: 61-8, season: 61-8, percentage: .884.

Week One

2011-08-30T13:11:00.000-07:00

TIMING IS EVERYTHING … I was born on a Thursday before the opening Saturday of the college football season … this gave me little more than 24 hours to read the “Latest Line” in the morning paper and issue my first fearless forecast for that weekend’s games … I’ve been picking college outcomes ever since, sometimes with my head and sometimes with my heart … the head has a better win-loss percentage, but there’s nothing like the feeling you get when you win one with your heart, like Oregon State’s 3-0 “Giant Killer” win over No. 1 USC and O.J. Simpson so many Novembers ago …

BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT … the NCAA doesn’t know what to do with the allegation that a runaway Univ. of Miami booster paid for prostitutes for select Hurricanes … generally, when a player receives something of value beyond what the NCAA allows – think cars, meals, shoes, someone to take your exams for you – it’s regarded as an “extra benefit” since someone else paid for the services … the normal course of action when that happens is for the offending athlete to make restitution for the value of the goods received if he wishes to regain his eligibility … but I’m not certain the NCAA has anything in its bylaws that demands restitution for prostitution …

A CLOSET FULL OF TROUBLE ... while the Baton Rouge police are interested in collecting DNA from Jordan Jefferson's 49 pairs of shoes, the NCAA simply wants to know how a poor, struggling scholarship athlete could afford 49 pairs of shoes ... there's probably a simple explanation ... like maybe he grew up admiring Imelda Marcos ...

CUPBOARD FULL OF CUPCAKES … fattening one’s record to guarantee a spot in the post-season has become an art form … beat four cupcakes, go 2-6 in conference and “earn” a bowl bid to somewhere in the Lower 48 with a 6-6 record … Nebraska has been the world leader in this for decades, but Bill Snyder also did a pretty good job of it as he brought Kansas State back from the bottom of the barrel to college football respectability by greasing the win-loss record in the early season … Alabama has followed suit this fall with games against Kent State, North Texas and Georgia Southern, while Connecticut faces Fordham, which has only Six Blocks of Granite now that Vince Lombardi has graduated …

WORST GAME IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL SCHEDULING HISTORY … sometimes mismatches happen without warning … maybe you scheduled someone long ago when they were more competitive, but their program went one direction and yours went another … the University of California has no such excuse for its game Sept. 17 with Presbyterian … sure, all kinds of big time schools gobble up the little guys early in the season, but not only is Presbyterian an FCS team, it’s a really bad FCS team … the Blue Hose don’t even know how to put on their socks or lace up their cleats … if there was ever a time for the “Mercy Rule” in college football, this is it … if one team leads by more than 10 touchdowns with less than a half remaining, the game should be called then and there, no questions asked … this one may rival Georgia Tech’s 222-0 win over Cumberland in 1916 and will certainly surpass Cal’s own 127-0 embarrassment of itty-bitty St. Mary’s four years later … the not-so-Golden Bears should be ashamed …

NEW MATH … I’m trying to teach my six-year-old arithmetic, but not getting any help from the 12-member “Big 10” or the 10-member “Big 12,” which may be down to nine members one day soon … good thing we live in California, where Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott said the conference would immediately be “numerically correct” in its title after it added Utah and Colorado in the off-season …

PERFECT SLATE … as of Sept. 1, there are 120 unbeaten FBS teams in the nation … given the number of Bakery League cream puffs on most everyone’s schedule this weekend, that number won’t drop much in Week 1 …

BOOK ‘EM, DANNO … wonder why Ohio State threw the book at Jim Tressel? … turns out he had a Pryor …

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) Oklahoma, 2) Oregon, 3) Alabama, 4) LSU, 5) Stanford, 6) Texas A&M, 7) Boise State, 8) Florida State, 9) Oklahoma State, 10) Wisconsin, 11) Nebraska, 12) Arkansas, 13) Notre Dame, 14) Florida, 15) TCU, 16) West Virginia, 17) Georgia, 18) Mississippi State, 19) Texas, 20) Missouri, 21) South Carolina, 22) Virginia Tech, 23) USC, 24) Utah, 25) Nevada.

THE OTHER END … 120) New Mexico, 119) New Mexico State … (save the date: the two worst teams in America meet in Albuquerque on Oct. 1. Admission is free. Charging to watch this debacle would violate all sorts of laws against fraud.)

The long and wondrous 2011 college football season is about to begin. Most of us can hardly wait.

There will be 50 percent winners and 50 percent losers and no tie games.

The object here is to pick only winners.

This week’s picks are as follows:

OREGON over LOUISIANA STATE … the off-season is much harder on football coaches than the regular season … Oregon, known for its fast-paced offense, suspended one of its top players for being too fast – like 118 mph in someone else’s rental car in the middle of the night on Interstate 5 … LSU, meanwhile, suspended its starting quarterback after he was charged with something far more serious than unsportsmanlike conduct for his alleged participation in a bar fight that left one person seriously injured … whoever wins this one will immediately head to the head of the class when folks start talking about the national championship … and even the loser won’t be eliminated … yet … Ducks by 3.

OKLAHOMA over TULSA … the Sooners are poised to go all the way, and while Tulsa occasionally scares people with its high-octane offense, the recent suspension of wide receiver and all-everything threat Damaris Johnson ended all hope of an upset … this one won’t be close … Sooners by 40.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Georgia over Boise State … if this game were on the Smurf Turf in Boise, the outcome would be different … the Bulldogs are poised to return to college football’s elite … Boise is already there … Bulldogs by 7.

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Notre Dame over South Florida … they’re already talking national championship in South Bend, which is way premature … nevertheless, the Irish have finally found their man in Brian Kelly, who has the know-how to take college football’s most storied program back to the Promised Land … Irish by 3.

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Nebraska over Chattanooga … just plain embarrassing … then again, the Huskers have made a living rolling over Bakery League cupcakes in the early season … besides, the folks in Lincoln will buy tickets no matter who’s on the schedule … Huskers by 60.

TEXAS A&M over SMU … while the Aggies search for a conference (the WAC has some openings), they’d best be advised to focus on the road ahead, which has more than a few speed bumps along the way … one of those bumps comes Sunday against an SMU outfit that’s always dangerous when June Jones is roaming the sideline … Aggies by 21

BRIGHAM YOUNG over MISSISSIPPI … a tough early-season test for the Boys from the Y … a win here could set the suddenly independent and already bowl-bound Cougars up for a stellar season … Cougars by 14.

STANFORD over SAN JOSE STATE … shouldn’t be played … will be called at halftime after Andrew Luck throws for 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns in the first quarter alone … the Spartans should drop down to Division III where they belong … best to ignore Stanford until Nov. 12 when Oregon comes to town … Stanford by 56.

TEXAS CHRISTIAN over BAYLOR … Robert Griffin III makes the Bears a threat every time he touches the ball, but Gary Patterson’s kids are here to stay, despite significant losses through graduation … Horned Frogs by 10.

USC over MINNESOTA … now that the Trojans have officially decided to quit complaining and take their NCAA-mandated medicine, the future is bright … yes, this will be another bowl-less season, but with new Pac-12 rivalries emerging – especially with Utah – this team will have much to play for … Trojans by 28.

TEXAS over RICE … after burning all film from the 2010 season, the Longhorns have decided to start playing football again … Texas by 32.

AUBURN OVER UTAH STATE … three questions for Auburn fans this year: 1) can Cam’s dad deliver us another savior before the season begins?; 2) will Toomer’s Oaks survive?; 3) can the War Eagles win even six games this year? … answers: one yes and two no’s … Auburn by 27.

MIAMI (Fla.) over MARYLAND … not certain about his depth chart even at this late date, Al Golden was seen in the Hurricane’s equipment room trying on shoulder pads … could be worse … no matter who shows up Monday, the Hurricanes will be motivated … Miami by 4.

HAWAII over COLORADO … why does every gambler subscribe to satellite television so he can watch those middle-of-the-night games from Aloha Stadium? … because it’s the only way to double down on all the bets he lost during the daylight hours … for non-gamblers, of which there are a few, Hawaii is more fun to watch than just about any team in college football, with the exception of Oregon … Warriors by 8.

UCLA over HOUSTON … after several years of uncharacteristic frustration, the Bruins are headed up the college football ladder … expect this team to be bowl eligible by season’s end … and why do I keep confusing Houston’s prolific quarterback with the guy who used to do the American Top 40? … UCLA by 1.

CAL over FRESNO STATE … those crazy Bulldog fans have snapped up way more tickets than Cal fans for this Candlestick Park oddity, causing much consternation and embarrassment among athletic administrators in Berkeley … Fresno is not quite the fearsome monster it was a few years back, but with a stint at Fresno State a part of his personal past, Cal coach Jeff Tedford will make sure his players are focused on the task at hand … Cal by 2.

FIVE EASY PICKS … there are so many lopsided, shouldn’t-be-played-even-in-your-wildest-dreams games this weekend that it’s hard to know where to start … this week’s sure-fire winners are Alabama (over Kent State), Wisconsin (over UNLV), Rutgers (over North Carolina Central), Florida State (over Louisiana-Monroe) and Oklahoma State (over Louisiana-Lafayette).

OTHER GAMES THAT SHOULDN’T BE PLAYED … hey, let’s just mail these in so no one gets hurt … go with North Carolina State (over Liberty), Arkansas (over Missouri State), Texas Tech (over Texas State), Florida (over Florida Atlantic), Central Florida (over Charleston Southern), Cincinnati (over Austin Peay), Texas (over Rice), UTEP (over Stony Brook), Arizona (over Northern Arizona), Georgia Tech (over Western Carolina), Mississippi State (over Memphis), Oregon State over (Sacramento State), Utah (over Montana State) and Air Force (over South Dakota).

BIG 10 BULLIES … it’s as if every coach in the Big 10 got together and conspired to have the league go undefeated on opening weekend … thus we get Tressel-less Ohio State (over Akron), Wisconsin (over UNLV), Michigan (over Youngstown State), Penn State (over Indiana State), Iowa (over Tennessee Tech), Purdue (over Middle Tennessee), Nebraska (over Chattanooga), Michigan (over Western Michigan), Illinois (over Arkansas State) and Indiana (over Ball State) … the only Big Tenners who will have to wear protective gear this weekend are Northwestern (over Boston College) and Minnesota (going down hard to USC).

IF THEY COULD CANCEL IT THEY WOULD … the Worst Game of the Week award for the first Saturday in September easily goes to Colorado State at New Mexico … come Sunday morning one of these Sad Sacks will be unbeaten, untied and maybe unscored upon … but nationally ranked? … hardly …

ARIZONA STATE over UC DAVIS … before you overlook the FCS Aggies, remember that they shocked the collegiate football world six years ago with a 20-17 upset of Stanford … last year, however, they managed just four first downs and less than a hundred yards in falling to Cal, 52-3 … the historically underachieving Sun Devils are poised for a Pac-12 title run with the Meanest Man in College Football, Vontaze Burfict, leading the way … ASU by 17.

OTHER GAMES … Louisville over Murray State, Connecticut over Fordham, Kentucky over Western Kentucky, Missouri over Miami (Ohio), Virginia Tech over Appalachian State, Clemson over Troy, Pittsburgh over Buffalo, Tennessee over Montana, South Carolina over East Carolina, Southern Mississippi over Louisiana Tech, Iowa State over Northern Iowa, Central Michigan over South Carolina State, Eastern Michigan over Howard, Kansas over McNeese State, Kansas State over Eastern Kentucky, Vanderbilt over Elon, Wyoming over Weber State, San Diego State over Cal Poly SLO, West Virginia over Marshall, Washington over Eastern Washington, and Washington State over Idaho State.