500 to 5000

A quick update

2012-03-04T23:11:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

This month I have begun trading proper and I can report that the first 4 days of this month have earned me the princely sum of: 14.59. It doesn't sound like a lot, but I'm quite proud of that.

I m not sure I'll be updating this regularly with updates, but my renewed focus on ONE market (football) and much, much less of the others means that I should now end this month on a profit. To be able to make money on this, discipline is absolutely key. If you don't stick to what you know then the chances are you won't make any money at all.

I think it's lunacy when people are looking on betfair at 2 in the morning desperately searching for a football match, or some obscure sport to place their money on. I can guarantee that doing that is the fast way to the poor house. If you suffer a loss for the day, it's best to just walk away from the PC, take a break and have another try another day. There's always sport on, and as such, there should be no need to be scouring the markets in the early hours.

Other good news is that my blog now has TEN followers! Awesome. Thanks for following me. It goes to show that at least some people are reading my blog. Thanks again.

500to5000

A March update

2012-03-03T01:02:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

Not a lot has been going on in Feb. I'm still not 100% happy with use of the Geeks Toy, so I have spent the last month making sure I know how to work the thing correctly. I have also been busy with work, and so my trading time has been much less.

In any case, I'm now pretty confident that March will be a good month. I'm still working a lot, but I hope I can try and manage my trading around my work.

Anyways, I'll try and keep people updated as I go this month, when I have a moment. Until next time.

500to5000

A comment left on my blog

2012-02-18T09:39:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

I had the following comment left on my blog the other day

'hello,
i am betfair full-time trader since 4 years and since short time i started to trade for customers with a ROI of 35% per month on average.
If you are interested to join me or share trading views dont hesitate add me in msn tradingpro@hotmail.fr or mail me in that adress.
good luck'

It was posted by a fella called 'Gus'. Nevermind the shocking grammar and spelling in the post, but why on earth would I invest in something like that, by someone I don't know contacting me. I might be a bit of an idiot, but I'm not that much of an idiot. Thanks anyways, for reading, Gus.

500to5000

Righty Oh and off we go

2012-02-05T09:07:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

As I mentioned in a previous post, I am now ready to go live with my trading. However, I am not going to be a complete fool and start off with a massive bank. I have made mistakes with a big bank before and so this time round (learning from my mistakes) I am going to give myself the princely sum of 100 pounds to begin with.

I will be analysing past team form, and looking for any markets that are over and under priced and be doing all I can to find value in the trades I make. I have actually gone back over the last few months of my trading and worked out what types of losing footy bet I need to cut down on.

Anyways, I ll give it one last go for the rest of the month and shall see what happens. Happy trading,

500to5000

And again.....

2012-02-02T23:40:00.000-08:00

Yes, that's the web page I got when I tried to look at www.betfair.com this morning. Utterly useless.

500to5000

Back in the game!

2012-02-01T00:25:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

It's been quite an exciting month for me. As you may or may not be aware I have been playing around with the Geeks Toy over the last 2-3 weeks and it's very exciting. Is playing the right word to use? I guess it is 'playing' with the toy isn't it. Anyways, I digress. Results have been quite encouraging, and I m preparing to go live with it this month. I m not sure whether or not I will post the profit and losses yet, I m still deciding to or not. I'll see how I feel later in the month.

I have decided to remove any blogs on my blogroll that haven't been active in over 6 months. I don't like doing this, but I feel that people who haven't posted for 6 months have either given up with trading, or have moved onto other things.

Other news involves my blog getting a mention in the excellent 'http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.com'. He mentioned my rather embarrassing 'Bundesliga' mistake, last year, (erm thanks) and recommended that I change my name to 'The Fuhrer'. That isn't something I'm going to do, as I don't plan on partaking in any genocide in the near future. I am fully determined to 'earn my stripes' in 2012 and not give up. Yes, my blog is still called 500to5000 because I can't be arsed to change it at the moment. If I change it don't I need to update the address and thus lose all my readers? That's what I thought, but I m no IT expert, so maybe someone else can put me right. I just this second noticed that centre court trading wasn't on my bloglist. My apologies Sultan, it is on the list now!

http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.com is well worth a read, not only for the insightful comments from the author, but also for the seemingly endless supply of fit female tennis players he manages to come up with. Sultan has also conducted some brilliant interviews as well over the years with Cassini, author of green-all-over.blogspot.com (which incidentally is a good read), and with John.

Anyways, that's all for now. I'm going to try and top the 10,000 view barrier this month if possible, and also have more than 10 followers. The views are at about 7,500 right now, and I have 8 followers. Surely my blog is exciting to read, and insightful, so follow me and view my ramblings!

Until next time,

500to5000

Quiet this month

2012-01-24T11:35:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

The month is nearly over, but I will be spending the remaining week continuing my testing with the Geeks Toy. As I have said before it's an excellent trading tool, I just need to find out now if it can actually make me any money! Hopefully it can. Anyways, my posting will be minimal over the next week and I will be back on the trading proper in early February!

500to5000

Further Testing

2012-01-20T10:18:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

I downloaded and installed A Geeks Toy or AGT as it's known to people who have used it for a long time. All I can say is that I wish I'd been using AGT since the start of my trading. I m still using the non live account version, but things are going really well with it. I m going to keep testing it for a few more weeks and then maybe go live with it.

AGT is so user friendly, and although it takes a little while to log into, seems to operate at least twice as fast as the shitty slow betfair site, which means you can have more markets open at the same time. The odds also update extremely fast in AGT. At least they seem to, and you don't have to hammer the refresh button like you do on the betfair site.

I suppose the only downside is, there not being an 'automate' button, but I guess it always pays to keep an eye on markets yourself and trade out only when you think it's worthwhile to do so. You can't rely on a computer to close trades for you.

That's enough of my rambling nonsense for now.

500to5000

Betfair problems again

2012-01-13T05:17:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

As I type this, I notice that the betfair site has gone offline yet again. I find it unbelievable that this keeps happening. Maybe it's because it's Friday the 13th, but I suspect it's because betfair is becoming increasingly unstable. OK, the site hasn't crashed much recently, but following a major upgrade, surely it shouldn't just stop working. Maybe betfair should have tested the upgrade better.

In fact, I have been looking at the other options available to traders, and off the top of my head can only think of 3:

www.wbx.com
www.smarkets.com
www.betdaq.com

Wbx is actually quite a fast site, but the market options are incredibly limited and they have hardly any inplay sports at all.
Smarkets looked ok, but there is virtually no money available on it, and it seems to be trying to decide whether or not it wants to be a news and entertainment site or a trading site.
betdaq is (as we know) the best option of the 3, but liquidity needs to increase, and as I said in an earlier post they actually need to start advertising for people to join, and make depositing funds easier. Why should you have to use moneybookers or whatever it is to deposit funds? Betfair (even though unreliable) allow fund depositing much easier.

Anyways, if people are aware of any other trading sites then please let me know. The above isnt a detailed list obviously.

500to5000

An interesting read

2012-01-11T23:21:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

This morning I have been having a good old read over at http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.com. The 'Sultan' has been going on a bit of a crusade in trying to get people to move over to betdaq and do an element of trading on their site. It's an effort that is to be applauded. (sound of applause)

If other sports exchanges are ever going to become serious rivals to betfair then they are going to need to do a bit of marketing to promote themselves, ramp up those special offers and take advantage of times when betfair goes down or when betfair suffers some negative publicity. Betfair certainly has enough moments of controversy, what with the PC being introduced, that racing scandal the other week and the site being slow at the best of times.

So this is a call to all of those budding betting exchanges out there. Come on, pull your socks up and tempt us to join you!

500to5000

A change of focus and a step back from trading

2012-01-08T20:54:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

After doing a lot of thinking over the last few days (and no trading). I have decided to remove the money I have in my betfair account and focus instead on paper trading football matches over the remaining month and February.

It's taken me long enough to realise over the last year that I have lost too much money with my so called previous 'methods', which clearly didn't work, and haven't worked up to this point.

I have also been reading http://agamblerslifeforme.wordpress.com/ it happens to be an extremely well written and well thought out blog about a trading journey. A very good read. I shall certainly be following up on some of the ideas mentioned, such as: the poisson system, the elo system, and many of the trades he suggests such as dutching various markets, looking at HT markets, over and unders markets and more.

At least while paper trading things I can work out where I am going wrong and what I can fix.

On a slightly seperate note, and for future use, does anyone happen to know of any trading software that works with betfair?I have heard of a geekstoy. Is it worth getting hold of.

500to5000

To make things clear

2012-01-08T02:55:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

I know I'm not the perfect trader yet, but I m going to keep having a go at it to see if I can make it work, and yes I will be posting my profit and loss results here at the end of the month. I appreciate that I have a lot to learn, but I shall keep plugging away and see what happens. Although, it's my blog so I reserve the right to put whatever I want on here.

I also never meant to suggest that the over and unders markets will be all I do (I understand if people read it that way). I know that concentrating on one particular market isn't the way to go and I shall be focusing my methods on a number of different markets this year. The over and unders market is one of the things I will be trialling. Of course, if 1.14 is a value trade and I feel it'll be at unders on a certain market the entire game (based on looking at past form stats, type of game etc) then I will let the bet run.

By the way Cassini. I wholeheartedly agree with a comment left by 'soccerdude' on your blog. Which you would be wise to read. I quote it here in case you haven't had the chance to read it

'Bit disappointed in this entry, and the other two entries, attacking fgtips.blogspot.com. Okay, there's little doubt that it's poor and not well thought-out, but you sniggering over the details of the blogger's delusions and misinformation has the slight feel of bullying about it.

You have a well-established and well-read blog. You are obviously intelligent, eloquent and provide detailed, in-depth entries on a range of different betting/trading related subjects. Compare this with the fgtips who is, shall we say, more laconic, and you can quickly appear to be taking up the role of a thuggish tormenter. Reading most of your other entries, I realise you're not like that. But, in my opinion, these kind of entries do you a disservice as they should be beneath you.

It's the easiest thing in the world to criticise and takes little skill to do so. I'm sure you could pop across to my blog and tear it to pieces in ten seconds flat. No problem. But is this really what your readers are looking for from you? Is this how you have steadily built up a readership? I doubt it. The blog you are attacking is a very easy target indeed, but low-hanging fruit is not always tasty.

And you also seem to have had some influence. Pop over to Geoff's blog at fulltimebettingblog.com and you'll see he's joined in the attacking too.

Please continue your blogging. It's largely enjoyable to read, as I trust it's enjoyable to write. Be positive on subjects or be negative - I'm not suggesting you administer self-censorship in any way - but perhaps it would be good to determine, before you publish, whether an entry is truly worthy of the excellent blog that you've spent so long building up.'

I couldn't agree more. Until next time.

500to5000

A successful day

2012-01-07T08:57:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

As I stated in my first post a few days ago. I have re-thought a lot of strategies this year, and I can guarantee there won't be any more of the:

'oh look it's a german game, they are first in the league, I ll whack a load on laying 0-0, even though it's the first game of the season and I know nothing about the league.' I ll be doing a lot more trading in-running on the overs and unders markets for one. It's something I have had success on in the past and I hope it'll bring me success in 2012. I know people always bang on about 'value' etc etc, and yes, I'll be attempting to pick more value trades in the future, but if you can see a game is going to be a low scorer there's no reason not to have a small trade on under 3.5 goals and then lay it off after a few ticks. Sure, you may never become a millionaire that way, but it produces some profits.

I had a small bet on Everton to win today, and ottenham as well, and I see I was correct on both counts. In fact, I m quietly confident that I will turn a profit in January of this year, and I will post the P/L here on the blog at the end of the month. In all honesty, I don't care if it's even 1p profit, at least it will go to show that I m no longer losing like last year.

I m still continuing the search for a new job as well this year and I hope that I get some success with that in the coming months. It doesn't help a great deal not being based in the UK though. Ho hum. Best keep at it.

Happy trading all.

500to5000

Inspiration and a salute to bloggers

2012-01-05T21:27:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

It's just hit me today how many people actually write about the sports they trade, and sports and life connected to sport. Of course, you have the great blog of 'greenallover' but you have slightly lesser known ones like 'tradingaprofit', and 'centrecourttrading' to name a few.

Obviously, these folk are posting in order to maybe improve their own trading and ultimately profits, and possibly even for fun. Whatever the case I have to admit I enjoy having a read of these blogs every few days just to see what people have to say. It gives me the inspiration to keep going with my own trading in a controlled and more profitable way.

Today, I placed a small back bet on Miami to win the NBA game. Luckily they did, but it was a close call. Phew.

500to5000

Reset for 2012

2012-01-04T20:54:00.000-08:00

Hi Readers,

The world's most hapless sports trader is back! I have had a bit of a break from gambling over the last few months but I am prepared to give it one final go for 2012. I m going to mostly concentrate on smaller trades on football, golf, tennis and horse racing to see if I can trade my way to success. I m going to be focused mostly on profit protection, and will be using a starting bank of 100 quid. As Cassini (I think) pointed out, if you can't do it with 100 quid then don't do it at all.

This won't be updated as much as previously, and will be less about profit and loss, but more about musings and life that happens on a daily basis. Thank you for reading.

500to5000

A pause for a while

2011-09-16T03:03:00.000-07:00

Hi,

Sadly, this maybe my last entry for a few months. I m back off holiday, but right now I m trying to organise myself a new job and hopefully a new career, as such, I m spending less time on betfair and more time on sorting things out.

I aim to continue this blog in the future and while I m looking for new work I will be posting the odd update here, but less than before. Rest assured that my trading hasnt finished, it's just taking a break for the moment.

500to5000

Hols

2011-07-29T11:43:00.001-07:00

Hi All,

The blog is going to be a bit quiet for the next few weeks as I ease back on trading, go on holiday and find time to undertake more analysis with my trading.

I should be back in contact in a few weeks! A hols is certainly needed.

500to5000

A Database

2011-07-27T21:14:00.000-07:00

Hi All,

I have spent the last few days compiling a database for the Premier League which I believe starts up again soon. I have managed to incorporate some of the data from the amazing www.football-data.co.uk so I can do a query and it'll tell me the number of goals scored between 2 teams and when.

All this was rather straightforward and I have a feeling you can actually do a lot more with a database. I'd be very interested to know, if anyone knows, how to get the database to update automatically, so it'd take data from some website when a goal has been scored and it appears in the database. I guess this is rather complicated to do, but if anyone has any ideas it would be excellent.

The new way of trading is working as well. I have cut right back and am now choosing just a few matches to trade per day rather than going through them all on a random basis.

That's all for now. Any advice would be appreciated. Many thanks,

500to5000

An Optimistic View

2011-07-26T12:51:00.000-07:00

Hi Readers,

I have been doing a lot of thinking over the last few days, and it's pretty clear that my current methods of so called trading are utter crap. It's about time I pulled my finger out of my ass and start to analyse the trades I do a lot, lot more. Cassini and his blog 'Green all over' is right when it says practice makes perfect, and although I m not exactly happy about the way he highlights the errors I have made, I m sad to say he's correct

He mentions that it takes about 10,000 hours worth of practice to get good at trading, and although I reckon I have clocked up a fair few I reckon I have a bit of a way to go. However, when you compare my methods of trading to someone like 'The Football Analyst' it, quite frankly, puts me to shame.

I have decided that I m going to cut back on the trading, and undertake a LOT more analysis. I m not sure how I'll record everything yet, but I'm determined NOT to mess up the remaining money I have left. The one thing that Cassini said that really hit home is 'why would you put your hard earned money on a trade that you have done no research on?'

I may as well just give my money away to some homeless person! Anyways, these comments have really made me take stock and re-think a lot about my situation. I shall fire up excel and get some league tables generated and get hold of some historical data as well.

500to5000

Oh well...bugger it.

2011-07-25T02:01:00.000-07:00

Hi Readers,

It's now down to the wire time. I now have 100 quid left (or thereabouts) of the 500 I started with. I have made a few stupid trades over the last few days, and only have myself to blame. From this point forward I will focus only on small trades and won't be laying anything (like 0-0s) or whatever. I ll have a loss this month, and at least I m using money that I can afford to use. I won't be topping up my betfair account again.

As someone once said to me 'if you can't make it work with 100 quid, then you won't be able to make it work with anymore than that'. That's correct. Why top up my account when I ll mess it up? I shall continue with the 100 quid I have left and see what happens next month. Suffice to say, if I lose the 100 quid I have left then I shall be closing my betfair account. It'll all be over.

I have cut out certain markets completely, but obviously I need to do more to tighten up on things. At the end of this month I will undertake an analysis of my footy trades and work out what has been profitable and what hasn't. I shall report the findings here.

Anyways, that'll be all from me for a few days. I ll post again later this week. Thanks again for reading.

500to5000

2/3's through the month!

2011-07-22T05:51:00.000-07:00

Hi Readers.

I m encouraged to see that I now have a number of people following me on here, and the nonsense I write concerning my efforts on Betfair. Seriously, it's excellent that people choose to follow me, and I'd like to say thank you.

I have had an interesting week trading wise. Due to my new found frugality in trading I'm actually in profit this month. Not by a huge amount, but it's a profit nonetheless. Obviously, the month isn't over yet and I have to ensure that I KEEP the profit I have made so far. I certainly don't want to mess it all up by laying 0-0 or something stupid.

In fact my aim this month now is to ensure that all the markets I have traded in are in profit. Of course at the end of the month I will post whatever I win or lose.

Thanks again for reading my blog.

500to5000

A bit of a disappointment

2011-07-17T22:46:00.000-07:00

Hi Readers,

I'm starting today off with a bit of a disappointment. It seems that not all of our fellow bloggers are as friendly to us newbies as first seems.

I was disappointed to read that the blog 'Green All Over' slated me for making the mistake I made the other day. I posted it on here. I confess, that I was unaware that it was day 1 of the season of that particular league. Had I known that information I wouldn't have placed the trade. It was an elementary mistake, and one that I won't be repeating. If I want this to work on a longer term basis.

As the poster mentioned: 'I really don't think basing decisions on the alphabet is a viable strategy'. I'm inclined to agree. Thanks for pointing it out. It's a mistake I won't be making again. I m just a bit disappointed that he decided to post a sarcastic comment or two about it on his blog.

I guess 'Green All Over' is clearly having better success than me, at least, with comments like the above you would certainly hope so.

I don't necessarily agree that the betfair premium charge is going to affect a great deal of people, and I don't think people are going to be drawn over to sites such as betdaq either. However, I think it's an unfair move on the part of betfair to continually penalise people who trade with them. Isn't it enough that traders pay approximately 5% on every successful trade they make? Obviously, I m not one that will be affected by the premium charge at present, but those that are shouldn't be paying the extortionate rate that betfair are about to introduce.

I guess the upside is that, at the very least, it shows someone else is reading my blog :-)

500to5000

A slip up

2011-07-15T23:49:00.000-07:00

Hi Readers,

I had a bit of a bad day yesterday. I got caught in a few stupid trades.

The first was on Heracles V Cambuur. I had backed under 4.5 goals and it was 2-2 at HT. I stupidly laid 2-2 thinking there was going to be a goal in the second half. It was stupid because my losses would only have been small. As it happens, it finished 2-2 so I would only have lost a small amount and not the bigger amount.

The second mistake, although a smaller one, happened in the Cottbus V Dynamo Dresden game. I actually thought Dresden were 6th in the league and Cottbus were 8th, and so it was fairly even. Cottbus ended up winning after I had laid them at 1-0 to Dresden. It wasn't a biggy, but was a stupid one nonetheless.

So, it pays to:
a. When you place a trade, make sure you have a correct exit position, or a small loss if it goes against you, or even less of a profit. Be aware that anything can happen in football games.
b. Before you place the trade be aware of where the teams are in the table, what sort of game it is etc.

I thought I had managed to cut those stupid mistakes out, but maybe my mind wasn't as focused as it should have been. I m still on course for a profit. Albeit not so big.

Until next time,

500to5000

PS On a related note. I should give special thanks to 'Green All Over'. This is now one of the most read posts on my blog.

A Step back and re-think

2011-07-13T11:39:00.000-07:00

Hi Readers,

It's been a bit quiet from me the last few months, but have no fear, I haven't managed to lose all my money. I have just been busy with work and have had less time to trade and thus less time to blog. In fact, Betfair wise things are ticking along nicely right now. Since I changed my strategy, which now involves many smaller trades the money in the account has been going up quite well. It takes longer to build a profit this way, but seems to be working so far. Obviously, the month isn't over yet so will have to see what transpires for the remainder of the month.

I also took some advice and changed the colour scheme of my blog. It should by now be easier to read and a bit clearer. It's also amazing as to where the people that read my blog come from. Not just the USA and Britain, but all over Europe and the Middle East. It's great to know so many people read it.

Anyways, until next time.

500to5000

A bit of a rant

2011-06-30T05:33:00.000-07:00

Hi Readers,

It's been a while since my last post, but I feel like a bit of a rant today. Does anyone else get frustrated, when you are watching a football match and suddenly it goes 'suspended' (which can be either good or bad because you either want or don't want a goal) and then goes off again and nothing has happened to the score? It's so annoying. Betfair should only have the words 'suspended' flash up when there has either been a goal, or when there has been a red card. Some games I have traded have flashed 'suspended' a number of times in say 20 minutes and nothing has happened.

I accept the fact that sometimes events happen on the pitch due to unforseen circumstances, but the red suspended sign should only be used to show a goal. Or if it is a goal they could have suspended (G) flash up or something so you know if a goal has been scored.

Anyways, things are still ticking along nicely tradingwise, I ll have a bit of a loss this month, but with my refined methods next month should be profitable and hopefully it'll stay that way. The trick is really....just dont get greedy and it works.

500to5000