Fintrade Capital

Bits and Pieces

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 10:40:00 +0000

Cheque Truncation
Just read a good piece by bankelele on cheque truncation that is set to significantly revolutionize the banking industry, ensure security of cheques, minimimze fraud and increase liquidity.. check it HERE...

Yipeeeeee!!

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 10 May 2011 17:36:00 +0000

Am back again after a year in the cold from the blogosphere... Halooooo peeeeeeeepz!!

Thank You Mr. Speaker

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 15:12:00 +0000

The much awaited speaker's ruling on who should be the leader of government business in parliament was delivered with the wit, skill and utmost consideration to the weight it had.

Country First
Given the kind of bickering that had been blatantly exhibited by both sides of the political divide this was an acid test to the speaker and behooved him to use the sword like the proverbial Solomon or provide astute leadership and the latter proved to be his second name. He surely put the country first in full cognizance of the precarious precipice we fell into after the disputed elections.

Two Principals
The evident refusal by the two principals to consult in full flare and glare of the public is a sad indictment on the future of the Grand Coalition Government after the enactment of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act and subsequent entrenchment in the Constitution. This display of grandstanding is uncalle for, and unneccessary in we are truly concerned aboup steering the country to economic growth.

Investors and Investments
It is clear that with the current stalemate and political uncertainty foreign investors seeking to venture and bring the much needed foreign direct investment will surely shy away.

Stock Market
The financial markets all over the world respond to any slight fundamental news and uncertain political environment in our country does not help. Our leadership show know best at this time when our stock markets is still wading the murky waters of world financial meltdown occassioned by the subprime mortgage crisis. Its time they put their acts together!

Bad Politics to Blame for our Woes

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 20:45:00 +0000

Since independence, Kenya has enjoyed relative calm and many of its 42 tribes co-existed well. This happened against a backdrop of bickering, infighting and politically instigated uprisings accross the continent. Indeed, Kenya has been an island of peace in the sea of political turmoil.

The advent of multiparty democracy in Kenya saw the widening of the democratic space and with it came the increase freedom of expression. The media that had been strangled and gagged for a long time rejuvenated and reemerged with a renewed gusto to delve into issues bedevilling the country in a suscint, blunt and unwavery way.

As the media industry in Kenya grew by leaps and bounds, many became more informed on the goings-on in the political, social, and the business arena. The populace had now become greatly abreast with the issues affecting their lifes many bordering on bad governance, inherent grand corruption and blatant looting of public resource. This unending tirade of grand corruption has its epicenter in the ills of the Kenyatta administration that grabbed massive junks of public land alongside haemorrhaging of public assets and resources.

The unveiling of the Moi administration was seen as a ray of hope and light at the end of the tunnel on issues reform. Many were optimistic and expectant of radical shift in the paradigms that begat our leadership. Sadly however, hardly had the administration sat in office than another sweeping indictment of the administration was revealed. The cases of mega corruption had now been given a thrust and its tentacles now spread far and wide as public officers, cognizant of the public servants code of ethics, defiantly diverted public resources to private use.

The corruption that had eaten into every facet of the Moi administration was epitomized in the Goldenberg scandal that saw the country loose Billions in imports compensation.
Fast forward to 2002 and the political climate was so charged after exit of the hallowed baba Moi. Many including those in his inner circle didnot take kindly his open support of project Uhuru, then an amarteur in politicalspeak. This latter saw a wave of rebellion in government leading to the formation of the Rainbow Coalition and eventually NARC that resounding took power away from the party of the Cockerel-KANU with its project that was no match to the machinery of 'yote yawezekana'.

The unveiling of the Kibaki administration lend credence to the hope of fighting corruption as hundreds of thousands thronged the Uhuru Park to celebrate the resounding victory against the metaphoric Mugumo tree.

Theafter, and in a sudden change of events, the administration was dogged by the Anglo Leasing scam that encaptioned payments to fictitious companies through promissory notes. Sadly therefore, the administration had become an embodiment of corruption that tainted its leadership and the ghost still haunts some of them until today.

The administration oblivious of the resolve of its populace, and the resilience of their will went into the ballot again in 2007 for a second term though some of its members had ditched camp during the referendum to form the Orange Democratic Movement, ODM, that became such a force to reckon with upto the ballot.
Hordes of Kenyans turned up in large numbers to cast their vote though the tribal equation was now more evident than before.

The results became such a close game to call and each party was expectant of a resounding victory. As the results were announced Kibaki had 'won' and this did not augur well with the other camp that marshalled its troops for countrywide mass action that latter blurgeoned into full blow violence now famously know as the Post Election Violence. Several months latter over a thousand had died, several injured and hundreds of thousands displaced and became the Internally Displaced Persons.

Indeed, quite sadly and unprecedented, politics had wrecked havoc in our country and the effects are still being felt.
As the country reels from this unfortunate events, businesses have sufferred immensely as the economy was dealt a major blow. Further our risk assessment internationally was alterred and Foreign Direct Investment significantly reduced.

The stock market is at its lowest ebb and sadly it is a victim, a pawn in this roller coster called politics.

Zain to Launch Zap ending MPESA Monopoly

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 21:16:00 +0000

After spoiling for fight with the regulator, including the Central Bank of Kenya, Zain is now set to launch its money transfer service dubbed Zap. The launch is set to end MPESA's monopoly in the mobile telephony money transfer and enhance convergence in service delivery to customers.

MPESA
When Safaricom launched its debut mobile money transfer service a few years ago, many didnot imagine that its growth would be phenomenal. After tailoring its services to banking the unbanked rural population as well as facilitating secure and real time money transfer the business has grown by leaps and bounds and the customer base now stands at over 5Million with substantial daily remittances going through the system.

Zap
After the unsuccessful launch of the Money transfer service, Sokotele, the company went back to the drawing board resulting in the launch of Zap in partnership with Standard Chartered bank and a host of other partners across the east african region.

Banks Jittery
It is indeed evident that the successfull roll out of MPESA money transfer service did send jitters across the banking sector players. Pundits will therefore be waiting to see how this new product that has more services converged including e-banking will be received by banks. As competition hots up, the major beneficiary shall be the customer as more services will be brought closer and closer at relatively lower costs.

Other players
As Zain is rearing to go with the launch of Zap, other players in the mobile telephony industry including Orange and Econet will be keenly watching and hopefully launch other innovative products fashion in the form of MPESA and ZAP.

Business Costs
Against a backdrop of these new products, many players in the mobile telephony and the telecommunication sector have been petitioning the government for reduction in the cost of doing business in Kenya. These issues revolve around poor infrastructure and moreso the road network, increased cases of insecurity and unreliable energy supplies leading to significant costs incurred by these companies. The immediate resolution of the above will go a long way toward spurring investments in Kenya as an East African hub for business and an emerging market in Africa.

Kenya Capital Markets under the Microscope

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:16:00 +0000

The Kenyan capital markets is now under focus against a backdrop of shrinking investor confidence and continually droping market index in defiance of any fundamentals. Other stockbroking firms including Suntra Investment Bank are struggling over pending lawsuits due to illegal selling of investors shares.
CFC Financials had also been sued over illegal short selling of a client's shares and the landmark ruling requiring them to pay back Millions is set to change the financial landscape and send shivers down the spines of other struggling stockbrokers who may have been doing the same scheme in full glare of the CDSC and the CMA.

Radical Surgery
The current NSE meltdown has brought to the fore the urgent need for radical surgery of the Capital Markets Authority and the NSE as well as stringent regulations on stockbrokers and investment banks inorder to bring back the much needed market rescusitation.

Stockbrokers
Since the collapse of Francis Thuo, Discount and placing of Nyaga under statutory management many had been wary of venturing into the market worst hit being foreign investors. Infact foreign investors and Kenyans in Diaspora have been flooding the market with orders to sell stock as they seek safe havens to hedge against risk associated with global financial crisis.

Facts
The sharp drop in the NSE 20-Share Index from over 6000 to 2927 by Monday after an unprecedented rise of 279% by December 2007. Market capitalisation has dropped from 1.3 Trillion in June 2008 to slighty over 700 Billion this week.

Reforms
Though the capital markets is said to have been pursuing reforms in the capital markets, radical surgery of stockbrokers, investment banks, Nairobi Stock Exchange and Capital Markets Authority is urgently needed and the time is NOW!

NSE;Stocks to Watch in 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:43:00 +0000

(The views expressed herein individual evaluations and should not be taken to mean a strong buy advisory but an indication of the likely movers and shakers of 2009)

As the year progresses several investors at the NSE are lost for words as their hard earned investments go down the drain however this is my take for 2009;

Likely Movers
Accesskenya
The enactment of the (in)famous media bill has opened a window of opportunity for investments by this company and indications are that Accesskenya is likely to launch a portal fashioned in the way of ebay to compete with others like mamamikes and find. This new window of orpotunity is likely to enhance the synergetic component and thrust the company to a higher level of profitability.
AccessKenya has been one of few star stocks at the NSE since its listing in mid last year, and for the better part of 2008.The information technology company had its share price pegged at Sh32 until May 2008, a valuation that was way above its IPO price of Sh10.Many will be watching as it flexes its muscle.

East African Breweries (EABL)
Day in day out the company continues to churn out large quantities of the famous 'imbibed froth'-beer that continues to attract new customers by the day. Despite the addition of sin tax by the Kenya Revenue Authority continually leading to substantial increase in the prices of this commodity, users continue to throng entertainment places to down the same and this will not stop any day soon.This only serves to enrich the company Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) and eventually net profitability that will affect share prices at the bourse.

Financial results released in September 2008 indicated that the giant brewer returned a pre-tax profit of Sh12.3 billion compared to Sh10.6 billion in 2007 and things are bound to get better.
EABL has maintained one of the highest dividend payout ratios among the NSE listed firms.The company will be doling out to investors an estimated total of Sh6.4 billion in dividends this year equivalent to a payout of Sh8.05 per share- representing a 10 per cent growth over last year.EABL is also turning to fully service the beverage market with the introduction of non- alcoholic drink.

CFC Stanbic
CFC-Stanbic Bank has set off to revamp its retail banking section over the next three years. This will see the bank, which is mainly considered to provide banking and financial services large corporate institutions, parastatals, non-governmental organizations, diplomatic missions and multi-nationals, open up a number of new retail branches across Kenya. In the last six month the bank has opened four new branches and its planning to open five more by the end of this year, bringing its outlets to 30 with over 40,000 clientele.
The expansion plan after the takeover/merger is likely to be well though out and planned to bring greater returns making it a good stock.

Equity Bank
The company has realize such enviable feats in recent times that the players in the banking sector are yearning for.Being Kenya’s largest retail bank, Equity, has posted an impressive growth that put its ahead of most companies in the banking league.Their expansion programme is growing and expectations are that its performance come the next quarter will still be sterling and hence a darling for most stock pickers.

Centum Investments
Centum investments has announced a 5 years strategic plans (2009-20013) that will help it raise additional capital and take advantage of the investment opportunities created by the global financial crisis. Though the amount and financial option was not detailed, the firm seeks to increase its foothold in sub-Sahara Africa has private foreign investors divest from the region. centum’s asset value has grown from Ksh.3 billion in 2004 to Ksh.8.4 billion at the end of last year with equity portfolio accounting for approximately Ksh.7.9 billion.
As the next quarter results draw closer many are watching for any surprised herein that might significantly transform its share price after the departure of its CEO earlier.

Despite Raging Bear Run at NSE, All is not Lost

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 13:41:00 +0000

As the stock market reels under the global financial crisis, contrasting with the bull run realized in early 2007, and lack of investor confidence, a group of investors are feeling most of the heat with their stocks plunging below issue prices. Never mind the fact that some of the victim companies surpass their industry average performance and experts forecasting a bright outlook.January analysts report card gives NSE an empty return.

New IPOs
As most analysts expect more Initial Public Offers of most companies this year, Investment advisers, brokers and investors alike might be taking a back seat before venturing to take up the Offers for sale coming their way.Kenya Pipeline is set to be made public(read an analysis by Bankelele) In fact the Government offered papers are now more secure and give better returns on Investments and this might have informed the issuance of the Infrastructure Bond by the Government mid this week.
Kenya has budgeted over Sh51 billion in infrastructure bonds comprising Sh33 billion and Sh18 billion through a debut international sovereign bond and long term domestic bonds respectively to finance rehabilitation and expansion of the road network.At the onset Treasury has issued a Sh18.5 billion infrastructure bond.Potential investors expected to take up this issue include commercial banks, insurance firms, pension funds and private firms.

Market Performance
Overall, all investors at the Nairobi Stock Exchange have lost considerably if the market performance gauge —the NSE 20-Share Index— and market capitalisation are anything to go by.The index has been oscillating around the 3100 and 3500 mark and the psychological 3000 mark might surpassed what with the low investor confidence, considerable erosion of the investments in most counters and low trade turnovers. The bear run might persist butr not for long as it is a cycle like in any other market of the world.

20 Share Index and NASI
In close to 3 years, the index has slid from a high of 6161 points recorded in February 2007,opening levels of 5016 points for 2008 and peak of 5445.66, on June 9, and the NASI has declined by 41.13 per cent from a peak of 116.243 to 68.52 in the same period.

Global Financial Crisis
The global financial crisis has exacerbated the situation as foreign investors, who were expected to cushion the stock against any panic sale, have joined the retail investors in offloading the stock to consolidate their investments and probably explore other possible investments in other emerging market that promise to retunr good earnings on investments.

Strong Fundamentals
The above notwithstanding, the Kenyan financial market is still growing stronger by the day and though the effects of contagion might be felt, it is not all that bleak a future after all.
A company like Safaricom that entered the market with alot of expectations amongst the investing public remains fundamentally strong,though its shares have slid below the Sh5 offer price since they debuted at the NSE on June 9 this year, and oscillating around sh 3 by the end of January 2009.

Most Profitable Company
Safaricom is currently ranking as the most profitable listed company in Eastern Africa, whose only undoing has been the huge supply of the 40 billion listed shares into a market that previously had a mere 15 billion shares which brings in a case of poor structuring by the investment advisors for the IPO or the greed to raise so much money from the public that would stop at nothing to acquire the company.

Profitability
Safaricom saw its pre-tax profit rise to Sh8.9 billion for the six months ending September 30 last year, up from Sh8.7 billion recorded over similar period in 2007, is strong since it controls about 80 per cent of the market and is operating in a growing industry—Information and Communication Technology.

Regional Comparison
Compared to its regional counterparts, the NSE has registered the biggest loss so far since the beginning of the year.

Grand Corruption and Grand Rogue Brockers on the Loose

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 14:57:00 +0000

The BD has a detailed story of the simmering wars between them and the Capital Markets Authority over regulatory measures taken to stamp more authority in order to ensure that investors confidence at the market is restored.The licensing war has seen the exit of CMAs Chairman.

Undervaluation
You may recall that currently there has been jitters in the market over the supposed undervaluation of various counters as well as the reluctance of various foreign investors to remit their cash for investments in the emerging market.

There is more than meets they eye in this saga. For a long time CMA has been a toothless bulldog in hibernation.

With various cases of grand corruption including the Triton saga confidence in our emerging market might be waning by the day and more still needs to be done for investments opportunities to attract rallied prices and increased attention in 2009.

Triton Saga
The case of Triton and Kenya Commercial Bank loan has led to price scare for the counter at the stock market as the mystery of missing millions deepens by the day.
The Kenya Commercial Bank has sued Triton Petroleum Company, under receivership, for Sh2 billion guaranteed through various debentures to import crude and refined oil to the Kenyan market.

7 Billion
The lump sum is part of Sh7 billion the oil dealer owes other banks among them Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank and a chain of oil companies.

Convergence
Bankers could soon be allowed to provide a diverse range of financial products including insurance services, if draft amendment proposals to the Banking Act prepared by Central Bank (CBK) are approved by the Attorney General.more

Emerging Stock Market Trends in 2009 (Part I)

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 06:59:00 +0000

As we move forward a look at the African stock markets amidst the contagion of the Sub prime Morgage crisis that emanated in the US might not be that rossy after all. The Capital Markets Authority did make a case for highly capitalized financial institutions and risk based supervision approach amongst other recommendations in view of the crisis.Business confidence did slide as most companies review their investment plans and strategies in 2009.

Global Financial Crisis
The year 2008 in global financial markets has been one of the most volatile since the 1930s.The last serious bear market originated in Asia in 1997, but this 2008 crisis originated in the US.

Currencies
During 2008,emerging market currencies weakened against the US dollar as a result of
the rush to the US dollar and US Treasury instruments.Investors sought “safe havens”
and US Treasuries were considered the safest haven.

ILower Interest Rates
Recognising the severity of the credit crunch,in October major developed and
emerging central banks lowered interest rates in an unprecedented globally coordinated monetary policy effort.This was followed by the implementation of fiscal stimulus measures and loosening monetary policies from governments and central banks in developed as well as emerging markets. Thus far, more than US$1 trillion has been pledged by governments around the world to rejuvenate their domestic economiesincluding China, the US, Germany, the UK, Taiwan, Spain, Japan, South Korea,Russia, France, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia.

Fastest Growing Economies
It is expected that the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies to continue to be akey driver of global economic growth.They are among the fastest growing economies in the world. The four markets together account for more than 40% of the world population. Domestic demand growth also remains robust. Moreover, Brazil and Russia are resource-rich countries and although there has been a recent fall in commodity prices, the longer trend for commodity prices is to increase and these countries will benefit from global demand for oil, steel, aluminum, pulp and other commodities.China continues to take great strides towards becoming a major global player.

Capital
Capital availability is the key question for emerging markets in 2009.Those who have it should do well.As for those who don't - it may be better not to ask.

This year is not going to be easy for the developing world. Lower commodity prices and slumping Western economies will damage growth. But with the United States, Western Europe and Japan all in recession and unlikely to emerge quickly, whatever growth there is in the world - not much - will be concentrated in emerging markets.

Emerging Market stocks
Given the steep market decline, investors have begun to shift their focus to the
increasingly attractive valuations in emerging markets.
NSE Chairman alluded that assets at the NSE are highly unbdervalued due to the persistent bearish trends that have failed to attract investors amidst current inflation and increase in the cost of living. Most investors at the NSE are retail.Uncertainty in the global financial markets is also suspected to be fuelling the investors’ jitters, with the deepening recession putting into doubt the chances of a quick recovery of stock markets.

2009 Outlook
While it is believed that the longer-term outlook for emerging markets remains positive due to the relatively strong fundamental characteristics and faster growth rate than theirdeveloped counterparts, 2009 is expected to be challenging. We can expect more volatility in view of slowing growth and recession concerns in major world economies,volatile exchange rates and commodity prices, and a global credit crunch.
Investors should brace for lower returns in the first quarter of the year 2009.

Africap Offloads 15M Equity Shares after 5 Years

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:30:00 +0000

5 year period
The expiry of the 5 year lock in period where initial shareholders of the company (This was placed on ther principle shareholders of the company when the bank wenbt public in 2006).The principle shareholders were not to sell their shares until after August 2008 when the period would expire for Equity. The expiry of this period saw the opening of a window of opportunity for Africap to offload its shares though three months latter in December.

Shares
The firm sold the shares for Sh2.5 billion, reaping one of the highest returns from equity investment in Kenya over a five-year period. AfriCap was one of the seven large shareholders, who the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) had barred from selling Equity Bank shares before August, 2008.

Equity Shareholders
-Private Equity firm Helios EB held 24.23% of the bank’s shares by end of March 2008
-British American Investments-10.73%
-Dr. Mwangi-5.3%.
-Mr Nelson Njoroge 6%
-John Mwangi 4.58%
-Africap 4.02%
-Equity Bank’s Employee Share Ownership Plan (ESOPs)held 4.02 per cent.
-The rest of the shareholders in the bank had less than 2.93 per cent shares.

Benefits
Over the years Equity has split it shares, issued dividends and bonuses and continued to post strong profit margins alongside receiving major local as well as global awards in microfinance as well as innovative banking.

Expansion
In Kenya the Company continues to expand its customer base, branch network and ATM machines to serve a wider clientele Recently the company enterred into stock dealerships with the listing of Safaricom IPO alongside its insurance products and real estate development loans available to its clients. The company also acquired 24.9% of Housing Finance successfully enterring into the housing and property development market.
Equity Bank closed 2008 as the only stock at the NSE to post positive returns oscillating between Ksh 155 and 176 by end of December 2008.

Financial supermarket
Equity is endeavoring to become a financial supermarket of sorts with its diverse poducts lines and synergetic engagements but more still needs to be done to harnsaess these opportunities for the betterment of its services.

Parting shot!
Apart from long ATM queues amidst continually broken down ATM machines, hectic banking hall escapades, Overworked staff, and seemingly swelling cleintele base that may not be sufficiently served by the bank, Equity still rocks and its shares are set to go places in 2009!

Media Bill and all the Fuss

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:16:00 +0000

The media Bill that had generated alot of controversy and near-personal-attacks and counter accussations has cooled down thanks to a directive by the president to the Minister of Information and Communication and the Attorney General to review the contentious clauses of the Bill and prepare a paper for Cabinet and probably parliament for review and amendment.

Safaricom CEO on his part (Supports the Law) envisages a situation where companies will issue annual reports, prospectuses and other documents online alongside official email communication. More still companies like Kengen and Safaricom with hordes of shareholders many have a reprieve by sending electronic mails to their clients including dividends by MPESA.

More analysis on the meda Bill by Bankelele...

Merry Christmas

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 12:32:00 +0000

Now that the year 2008 is about to end in a few days, it is now christmass time and the festivities are here with lots of merry making and celebrating in evey corner (unless you done celebrate one). Its time to look back at the year that was and ponder what we did achieve and what we missed.

Well as you celebrate this christmass may you 'jienjoy' as someone would say and take care. See you in the new year 2009 ready, roaring and rearing to go with new resolutions.

We Live to Blog and Blog to Live

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 14:40:00 +0000

Indeed over the years many bloggers have emerged focusing on topical issues and i must say they make the world of blogging fun to partkae.

I am Proud
I must say, in Kenya there have been many bloggers that have emerged to share their thoughts, experiences, views, opinions, nairumours(as Bankelele would call it), research works and probably business ideas or still just connect with other like minde thinkers. I have indeed been proud to be part of this great team and moreso likeminded publishers focusing on the financial markets-money market, capital markets and foreign stock market trends.
I am proud of you all!!!

Our Voices
As bloggers, we’re all different, and a blog can only be what we as the individuals or groups behind the blog want it to be.Thanks to some of my colleages in this field who have inspired me from time to time, i have continually read and followed their posts on various issues and i must say a Million thanks to them and in expanding the tagged thread i wish to give some thumbs up to Bankelele who has tagged me, Kenya Capital Investment Group for providing a Kenyan view from the international arena, Kainvestor for his analytical viewsSa, savvy Kenyan,pesa tu and Riba Capital who have gone quite, concept, Emerging Africa Capital, and many other bloggers who are part of these great team.

Why i blog
I blog to share my thoughts,experiences and views on topical issues and more importantly about the financial markets.
I blog to part have my voice heard on various topical issues albeit in the smallesst of ways.
I blog because each new day comes with new challenges and as we try to make the world of investing fun to operate, it behooves us to shares what we've got-information.

What i Blog
I blog about Kenya as an emerging financial market in Africa that is dreaming to realize Vision 2030 to thrust itself to the next level of developed economies. I blog about finance and the financial markets alogside all the financial infrastructure-the money market and the capital markets. I blog about business and investments in Kenya, Africa and the world, I blog about portolio management and stocks-shares, bonds, treasury bills,financial innovations, derivatives and such instruments.

This christmas may you live to blog even more...

Metropolis Welcome but Realization Daunting

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 16:23:00 +0000

The launch of the much publicized Nairobi Metropolitan that is set to create a rather expansive city with coverage spanning 15 urban centers is welcome as presented in paper but the cost to realize this dream city is a daunting task for all the stakeholders if the vision of transforming Nairobi into one of the regions business hub is to be a reality.
All these grand plans to transform the city of Nairobi into a major regional business and tourism hub known as the new Nairobi Metro 2030 Strategy, was launched in Nairobi Yesterday amidst current tough economic times for the lower cadre of society.

Ksh 33 Trillion?
When the plan was launched yesterday the announcement that this will cost Ksh 33Trillion way beyond our GDP and calls for major Foreign Direct Investment. However with Kenya being viewed currently as an emergent volatile zone with uprisings and tribal infighting every five years things might not be easy to attain this mark but nonetheless dream we must!

Dream
The Vision envisaged building the best-managed metropolis in Africa, providing high quality life as anchored in seven key result areas including infrastructure, security, opportunities for investors amongst others.The metropolis is expected to deliver a unique image and identity through effective place branding, building a competitive and deploying world-class infrastructure shall be realized.

Dream big, Dream for the Small
As the Kenyan government endeavors to lay the strategy towards this Vision 2030 there is dire need to reconsider thoroughly the issued affecting the majority of the populace including food, fuel, security, youth employment and many more as these will impact on the Vision 2030 and action is needed albeit NOW!

Financial Crisis Contagion Bites

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 15:51:00 +0000

After many months of denial the Central Bank might at last be bowing to the pressure to cut down interests rates and rather this might be an acknowledge that the world financial crisis whose epicenter was the USA is now spreading its ferocious wings to African emerging markets and Kenya in particular. This was hot in the heels of a denial by the acting finance minister that all was well?

Financial Contagion
It is indeed true that any crisis in the developed economies of the world will have their effects on African emerging markets and Kenya being reliant on Tourism, Trade, and Remittance by Kenyans abroad, things might not be that rossy for us.
A decision by Central Bank to lower the minimum amount of money that investors need to buy T-Bills is yet another attempt to bring down interest rates and prevent the economy from going on a further downward spiral, analysts said.

Th reduction of minimum T-Bills purchase 10 times from Sh1 million to Sh100,000, opens a new window through which ordinary Kenyans can be drawn into funding government debt and pits commercial banks against the Central Bank in deposit mobilisation and interest paid to depositors.more

Regulatory Framework
What does the developing global recession portend for the local economy and our financial markets? What policy interventions are required? What audit and regulatory measures must be embraced in navigating the emerging challenges?
These are the pertinent questions we need to consider as the effects of the global financial crisis continue. More

Kenya's Vision 2030-a reality or not?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 08:52:00 +0000

The media has been awash with news and information on the much touted kenya's Vision 2030 that is set to steer Kenya to the Status close to the First World. This vision has been 'dreamt' for us by the shennanigans and thinktanks at the Ministry of Planning and Vision 2030.

Pillars
If you may not be aware of this Vision its pillars as espoused in the details documents is economic political and social facets. I don not wish to delve into the nitty gritty of the same but my concern is the economic pillar in the sea of current economic quackmire and recession necessitated by the Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis in the US.This crisis has led to the collapse of the world financial giants while others are still reeling from its effects as they beg for Government bailouts.

World Economy
Indeed the world economy has been on a decline from the giant USA to the expansive Europe things have not been going well.This crisis to say the least has spread to Africa and Kenya is no exception. As it is said when US coughs Europe catches a cold and Africa shall be bed-ridden. Kenya that is reliant on Tourism and Exports within its struggling economy, will indeed realize reduced business and the uptake of tourist resorts and Villas even during this festive season shall be significantly reduced.

Outsourcing
Within the economic pillar of the Vision 2030 is the Business Process Outsourcing that has been seen to drive the Kenyan economy towards Vision 2030. This is indeed a new exposure for Kenya where companies in Europe and US alongside other developed economies od the world shall be utilizing the cheap services in Kenya alnd other emerging markets through outsourcing.
AS Kenya takes up th outsourcing bug the supply of business from the global economy may be reduced greatly due to economic crisis.

What next?
Although business process outsourcing is celebrated as a new ICT business to drive Kenya forward what next after the global Crisis?.Will Kenya still be the hub of business in East Africa or Will we perish with our Vision?

More Jitters in Banking Industry as MPESA Reigns

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 06:23:00 +0000

More jittersThe MPESA phenomenon ha continued to cause jitters and sleepless nights to many players in the banking industry who may have been lobbying the Finance minister to crack the whip.

Audit
Yesterday Hon Michuki, the Finance Minister joined the fray and in a rather stern statement called for an audit of MPESA by the Central Bank of Kenya on concerns about the safety of users’ money.

Regulations
M-Pesa and Zain’s equivalent, Sokotele-Now Zap Brand have been operating outside Central Bank’s (CBK) regulation unlike other money transfer services pending the passage of a National Payments Systems Bill.

Popularity
The money transfer system, launched in March 2007, has become popular with the unbanked population serving as a deposit account for some, hence causing jitters in the banking industry.

Money laundering
The phone-based electronic money transfer has been viewed as being prone to abuse by money laundering which is an illegal practice. Further concerns of the likely collaspse of the system have been rending the air and those shouting loudest are the banking industry players. Any guess?

Money Transfer
The MPESA daily money transfer service has been growing by the day and currently over 20B have been transferred through the System snce it was launched. Its registered account users now stand at over 4 Million and the number is growing by the day.

Parting shot!
The successful takeup of MPESA service has clearly demonstrated that Kenyans demands easily accessible, secure cash payment services in this fast growing emerging market and the regulators must take heed not to stiffle the growth with unneccessary and ill-advised regulations.

M-PESA Revolutionize M-banking and threatens Banks

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 07:15:00 +0000

Innovations
When Safaricom-Vodafone launched the M-pesa revolution many did not imagine that this new innovation in the Mobile Telephony industry would emerge to become a force to reckon with in the mobile banking industry.

MPESA
M-PESA is a Safaricom service allowing you to transfer money using a mobile phone. Kenya is the first country in the world to use this service, which is offered in partnership between Safaricom and Vodafone. M-PESA is available to all members of the public, even if you do not have a bank account or a bankcard.

Millions
Today Mpesa is transacting hundreds of millions of shillings across the country enabling many Kenyans send and receive money in the most convenient of ways.

Unbanked
Infact this revolution has enable many unbanked kenyans who may have been averse to opening bank accounts maintain virtual accounts in the name of Mpesa accounts that ar also connected to their mobile numbers.

Profitability
The company has made unparalled substantial profits in recent years and this is set to even rise tio unprecedented levels come the next fiscal years.

Market Share
Though the Kenyan market is abuzz with the entrance of new players Orange and Econet alongside Zain network, Safaricom is still the giant with amazing innovative team and this company is set to go places. Recently it launched a bill payment service in partnership with some corporate players and customers can at the comfort of their living rooms pay their bills. What morwe do one need.

Banks are shaking with every new day of Safaricom innovation.

Stocks
Thought it shares have been doind badly at the bourse,this is partly due to the global financial crisis and partly due to oversupply of its shares at the market a miscalculation that was done by the transaction advisors during the listing process. However, the future of this company is bright and with foreign investors keen on investing in Kenya as an emerging market with alot of funds, This share is still a good long term bet. Trust me!

Wall Street Crisis

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 09:26:00 +0000

Dear readers,
After many Month of absence from the blog scene due to some unavoidable circumstances am happy to be back and rolling!!!! yepyyyyyyyy...

Crisis
However and quite sadly the goings on at the World's famous Street has led to financial contagion across the other markets of the world and many investors are loosing alot of money in their cherished financial assets.

Short Selling
The emegence of this crisis fueled by the Subprime mortgage crisis led to panic across major markets. This neccessitated the drastic drop in the prices of vibrant and fundamentally strong companies across the globe.

Short selling
Short selling a phenomenon involving selling of borrowed shares in the hope of replacing them as prices continue to fall became the order of the day.
This did not augur well for most of the counters amidst rapid flow of information from one continent to the next.

Rescue package
As the Wall Street giants continue to wallow in financial crisis and illiquidity, the Fed government's rescue of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG demonstrated clearly that the financial turmoil continues on Wall Street and it is a matter of time before sanity resumes and investor confidence is restored.

Financial Contagion
Other major stock markets also tumbled with news of this crisis including Russia, Paris,Toronto, Germany, Asian Markets as well as emerging African markets amongst others.

Kenya
The Kenyan stock market was no exception and neeedless to say that most of these Wall Street investors had ventured into the Kenyan market through the much touted Safaricom IPO and their crisis in the far west will impact negatively in our market.
AIG for example is a major player in the stock market investing substanbtial amounts for perosns in Kenya and also abroad and more especially those who are keen on investing in emerging markets.
The rescue package might have come as a sigh of relief but time will tell where the markets are headed despite the slight rebound. Whether south or north!

Financial Reforms
The onset of this crisis has laid bare the need for stringent financial reforms to protect investors assets from rapid erosion once fundamentals change though in the slightest of ways. Further these reforms would ensure proper management of our financial markets and regulations of all financial innvoations icluding derivatives that are widely traded across the globe though not fully appreciated and understood by many.

Political will
This is imperative if rapid reforms and proper infrastructure is to be set up to avoid continuous problems facing investors young or savvy both in the developed economies of the world as well as the rapidly emerging markets.

Safaricom Much touted IPO: Bits and Pieces

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 22 Mar 2008 06:55:00 +0000

D-day At Last
Kenya's largest mobile telecommunications network service provider, Safaricom, will launch its initial public offer March 28 and closes on April 23 taking a total of 26 days. This offer for sale will give Kenyans amble opportunity to invest.

Stakes
The government will offer 25% of the issued ordinary shares of Safaricom. The IPO will offer 10 billion shares priced at 5 Kenyan shillings a share, which implies a value of KES200 billion ($3 billion).

High Expectations
Thw Governement hopes to raise KES50 billion from the IPO, which will be used to finance development programs and hopefully to supplement the budgetary deficit that had been witnessed in the FY 206/07.

Pools
The offer will be split into two pools - domestic and international. The international pool will be open to institutional investors only. The price will be determined through a book-building.
Investors in the domestic pool will have to buy a minimum of 2,000 shares. This means that any Kenyan intending to invest (and i know many including mama mbogas) are keen to have a stak of this 'sexy pie' and probably make a kill when it comes for trading in may.

Market Share
Safaricom's estimated market share at the end of December was 80%. The company has nearly 10 million subscribers.

Advisors
Morgan Stanley and with local investment bank, Dyer & Blair are the transaction advisors alongside other banks as citibank.

Official IPO site
The official IPO site is here

NSE will be most Volatile in 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 11:47:00 +0000

Crisis
It is now evident that if the current political crisis is not resolved as soon as possible the NSE that is often the barometer of economic growth is in for the most volatile period with suppressed activity despite entry of foreign investors into the market.

Facts
Since the year began, the NSE has shed Sh44 billion in market capitalization from a high of Sh851 billion at the beginning of the year to Sh810 billion as at the close of trading yesterday - a five per cent drop.
During the same period, equity turnover has declined by almost 30 per cent from daily trades worth Sh505 million on December 24 last year to Sh347 million at the close of trading yesterday.

Economic Slowdown
Economists had predicted a slow down in the economy pointing to a dip in tourism revenues, disruption of agricultural production and lower business turnovers in the wake of recent political turmoil.

Investor Confidence
Pundits have been quite to point out that a speedy resolution of the current stalemate and rejuvenated investor confidence is key to a speedy economic recovery and renewed momentum in the equity market.

Post Election Violence
The outbreak of post-election violence has eroded investor confidence in the market leading to some of the most aggressive sale of shares at the bourse with retail investors as the most active.

January/February Trades
The market was throughout January characterised by thin trades with retail investors - rushing to liquidate their positions in the short term - as the main sources of supply.

Institutional Investors
Battered investor confidence has seen institutional investors concede that any resumption of normalcy at the stock market depends on a speedy settlement of the political crisis.

The Aftermath of Election 2007 on economy

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 11:32:00 +0000

Volatility
The Nairobi Stock Exchange will remain volatile for most of 2008 reflecting the turbulence in the political arena that has been witnessed since the announcement of the controversial December 27 General Elections.

Downsizing
Most companies are now bracing themselves for downsizing and other restructuring measures geared towards cost cutting and enhancing profit margins.

Reduced Profitability
The profitability that has been witnessed in most banks at the beginning of the previous years quarterly results may be no more and by and large greatly reduced.

Economic Growth
The economic growth rate although deemed to remain resilient may not be sustainable if the spate of violence continue into the next quarter of the year and the government revenue collections will be greatly hampered.

Pillars of Vision 2030
The pillars of Vision 2030 that had been lauded to steer Kenya into rapid economic growth phase including Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Information technology, Tourism and telecommunication are now reeling from the effects of the post election violence.

Kenya Economy Reeling From Post Election Violence

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 15:13:00 +0000

Economy
The orgy of violence that has greeted Kenya's disputed election result has led to hundreds of deaths and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes.The post election violence witnessed in various parts of Kenya has indeed raised pertinent questions on the resilience of the economy to sustain long periods of civil unrest and violence.

Tourism
Kenya's tourism industry, which brings in some $900m (£455m) a year and attracts more than one million visitors a year, is sure to take a hit after four days of rioting and ethnic clashes. Its relative economic success has been helped in part by its thriving tourist sector, with visitors attracted by its abundant wildlife and pristine beaches.Provisional figures for 2006 from the Kenya's tourist board said the country had received 1.5 million visitors for the year, a growth of 5.2 per cent.

Repercussions
The stalemate over the election results has cost the economy billions of shillings with the repercussions being felt across East Africa.

Bankers Analysis
Several bodies including the Treasury, Nairobi Stock Exchange, Tourism sector, and financial organizations have given their predictions and analysis of the implication of the destruction and sporadic violence that errupted in the country against a backdrop of controvesial presidential elections and delays in announcements.
The effects are indeed immense and portends widespread implication for Kenya as an emerging economy that has recently been rated the fast growing and most preferred by investors seeking emerging markets.

East Africa
The pinch on the economy is not only being felt locally with close to 4B having been lost but has spilt to Uganda, Tanzania Rwanda and Burundi where essential products were not forthcoming as fuel passing through Kenya was unavailable due to closure of roads and violence.

Central Bank of Kenya analysis
Kenya’s economy has grown steadily in the past five years with all indicators pointing out that if the trend was sustained, growth would hit 10 per cent. The economic recovery that started in 2003 has achieved some major milestones and laid down solidly the growth fundamentals. The growth fundamentals laid down have reversed growth decline that had taken years. It is true that the recent violence in some parts of the country could adversely affect the tempo of economic activity, but cannot destroy the growth fundamentals so far laid down. more

Foreign investors
Private investment has been behind Kenya's thriving economy. It has averaged GDP growth of 5% since 2002 and the economy is expected to expand by 7% in 2007 - rates of growth that are only beaten in booming Asian countries such as China.
Kenya's shilling strengthened by 9% against the dollar in 2007 as foreign investors poured into the country's stocks and bonds, but those gains were largely erased when currency markets began trading on Wednesday.

Equity Market
The equity market on the Nairobi Stock Exchange lost 40 billion Kenyan Shillings ($591 million) in value on its first day of New Year trading Wednesday. Kenya has attracted a large number of multi-nationals and is home to one of the world's fastest growing stock exchanges.

Positive Prospects
Expected planned sale of Safaricom shares might stir the market once again back to its feet .

The Allure of NSE Growth Despite Electioneering Politics

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 14:13:00 +0000

20-share Index
It is noteworhty that the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) came from an earlier 10% plunge this year to exploit one of its most prosperous years of the decade with the 20-Share Index, rising to above 6,000 points at one point.The phenomenal growth of the 20-share index, a reflection of the investors' growing wealth, is expected to continue into the New Year as the capital and financial markets shed fears of political uncertainty, expected to end with the December 27 presidential polls.

New Listings
This year's stock market trade was continually dominated by the events of 2006, which saw the successful listing of the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KENGEN). This warmed the once dormant market and brought in 250,000 first-time investors.The NSE owes its milestones this year to the increased market confidence, exemplified by the coming to the market of family-owned businesses. The listing of the Scangroup, a multiparty marketing, advertising and research firm and Access Kenya, enabled the NSE to diversify its source of income and grow its market capitalization to new heights, with the later becoming the first ICT company on the bourse.

Panic Selling
The market took a mid-year beating from political activity this year with the 20-Share Index plunging by 9.24% due to panic selling of shares, mainly by the first-time investors who did not understand the meaning of market correctional activities.The June market plunge initially seemed to be a bad precedent but it came as a blessing in disguise as foreign fund managers, who had exited the market in the mid-1990s, and had been watching the market from the sidelines, came back rushing to buy the shares.

Collapsed Stock Broker Replaced
Investors panicked after the market regulator took action against Francis and Thuo Partners, one of the oldest stockbrokers, which was found to violate trading rules by using investors' funds without consent.Mr. Francis Thuo was replaced by Renaissance Capital, which purchased the seat at Ksh420 million. The money was used to partly pay off investors who had lost money with the collapse of the rogue investment firm. The NSE paid up over Ksh.200 million.

Investor Numbers
The number of investors at the NSE rose to historical levels this year to hit 750,000 compared to the 80,000 investors who traded at the NSE in 2003. The NSE, however, estimates that only 100,000 shareholders trade actively. NSE still faces stiff challenges, especially on investor education, a portfolio which falls with the market regulator, the Capital Markets Authority (CMA). The NSE reached its decision to sell the vacant seat to the Russia-registered Renaissance Capital in a bid to deepen the capital market in Kenya, by bringing in foreign capital.

Renaissance Capital and Morgan Stanley
RenCap ecured a stockbrokerage license from the CMA, allowing it to enter the growing market in Kenya, while one of the world's greatest investment banks, Morgan Stanley, also gained entry into the Kenyan market, thanks to the pending Safaricom listing.
Morgan Stanley partnered with Dyer and Blair Investment Bank to win the coveted bid for transaction advisor for the Safaricom Initial Public Offer (IPO), which is expected to be the next big bang in Kenya's capital market.The mega deals which dominated the NSE in 2006 trickled over into 2007, constantly putting bourse on a steady growth path and shaping the market activity.

Kenya Reinsurance
State re-insurer, Kenya Reinsurance Corporation, statutorily allowed a 30% share in any insurance deal in the market, also came to the market this year, bringing on board a hoard of fresh investors, both local and foreign, who came to profit from the June meltdown.

Market Capitalization
This year, market capitalization increased to historical levels, from Ksh112.5 billion in 2002 to Ksh732 billion in mid 2007 before peaking at close to Ksh800 billion in December.
The 20-Share Index has also stabilized at an average of 5,500 although it breached the 6,000 mark within the year before taking a deep plunge due to political volatility. The growth of the share index from 1, 364.85 in 2002. The index stood at 5,332.03 as of 11 Dec.
The share index shed nearly 600 points in October this year, closing the second week of the month at 5005.89 points compared to a high of 5611 points in early September.

Scangroup, Equity, PTA and Barclays
The listing of 69 million Scangroup shares, the Equity Bank placement in the market's main investment segment, the listing of the PTA Ksh1 billion bond, the listing of Barclay's three-year corporate bond of Ksh5 billion, played as major movers of business.

Banks Profitability
Stock market analysts say the first six months of the year was dictated by the high after tax profits posted by the listed commercial banks increased.

Parting Shot
The new year portends new growth heights for the NSE as foreign investors flock into the Kenyan market after a decade of shying away. This is a clear indication that Kenya as an emerging market is going places.

Don't be left out!!!!