Everyboy's blog

Funny India

2011-11-06T22:48:00.001+05:30

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Defeatism - defined

2011-09-25T12:10:00.002+05:30

If I have to give an anecdote for defeatism, this should be it:

"And what could man control when he is unable to control his own birth, the starting point of his life? And what could man control when he is unable to control his own death, the ending point of his life? When man is unable to control the beginning point and the ending point, how could he control the in-between, illusory story?"

My Son - Sachin

2011-08-17T22:13:00.003+05:30

White Board

2011-08-07T20:42:00.001+05:30

When nothing is there on a white board,

it is clean, spotless

When a line of poetry is written,

it is admirable, comprehensible

When a hundred lines are written,

it becomes blurred, hazy

When a hundred thousand lines are written,

it becomes clean, spotless

Ponniyin Selvan

2011-07-04T22:35:00.005+05:30

Just completed reading my first Tamil novel "Ponniyin Selvan". It was a good read with good characterizations but without any significant central theme or noteworthy philosophy. At the end of the 3 month duration of reading the 2000+ page novel, I am definitely not disappointed. I am getting a sense of contentment which I normally feel after watching a good masala Tamil movie: sans logic at many and important places.

Overall, it was a good beginning to my Tamil fiction reading; would have cherished the novel had I read it 10 years back.

Life’s goal

2011-05-15T22:07:00.003+05:30

The Raison d'être of life is to achieve. This might insinuate everyone has to achieve something worthy in his life: I am not denying it; however, I would go further to say one has to keep on achieving in every stage of his life; every year, every month and so on. This brings to an even further important quest: what to achieve; what is the goal.

There are stages in life when the goal is pretty obvious during that phase and hence no intellectual introspection is required for most. This generally applies till one completes his studies; some really excel in this part of life and get to a professional career of choice.

Once into the career which he has painstakingly gotten into after so many years of studies and other related activities, does he really believe whether the career he is into is worthy of all the goals so far in his life? Doubtful. The goals then shift to reaching “a particular level” in the organizational hierarchy, own a house, raise a family, international vacations etc. Depending on multiple variables, all these can be achieved over a period of time as long as he does not fritter away opportunities coming his way and does not keep goals beyond his reach. Now what next?

The next stage is the one where the goal is to look for a goal. Now the person looks beyond him or within him. Some get involved in social activities – not because they become more concerned about the society than before, but just because they need a goal. Some start exploring spiritual thoughts and get lessons like “living in the present” is the key, fitness of the mind and body etc. No complaints, but what is the goal here: the person is trying to find happiness within him in the latter or provide contentment/happiness to others in the former.

In the three broad compartments of life mentioned above, there are three distinct goals, not one of them linked to the other. The above division of life is just an example: a person can have any number of stages in his life and that many different goals. Nonetheless, what strikes me is the huge inconsistency in targets as we move along in life. If anything, I would prefer a single goal to have in life right through. The sub-targets in each stage should lead one step closer to that single goal.

What can be that one thing worthy enough to be a goal? Since it is one’s life in question, the goal should be such that it demands more on moving closer and be a mirage in a positive sense. The goal should be something which upon achieving a portion makes one want more of it. What can be that goal? Two things come to my mind that can fit this description: Money and Happiness.

Remember we are thinking about a goal from childhood to old age. Can money be the goal in the early stages of life: not possible. Hence, the only possible goal to have is happiness. All the achievements we target are tools towards this goal; but in pursuit of the tools, most of us lose sight of the goal. It is time we take efforts to change.

Be happy: that is life’s only worthy goal.

To be continued.

Optionality of Cash

2010-11-13T07:07:00.001+05:30

A blog post after some time: Optionality of Cash

Indigo Cancellation Process Sucks

2010-10-02T11:55:00.002+05:30

I have read from multiple sources that Indigo is one of the best, if not the best, managed Airline company in India. However, it came as a shock to me when I learnt I cannot cancel a booking and get refund for the canceled journey. Instead I can only use the money from the cancelled ticket in subsequent journeys which was a procedure infamously started by Air Deccan which even they got it changed (or so I hope). If not getting my money back is one issue, the fact that Indigo has not even sent an email acknowledging the cancellation and interest-free money they have got is unprofessional and IMHO should be penalized for such a cheat-all tactic. Bottom-line, Indigo sucks, just like other Airlines in India.

Amul - the butter ads!

2010-07-29T20:47:00.005+05:30

The Amul hoardings are probably the only good experiences in a traffic jam (argh!) in Mumbai

Standard Chartered IDR issue: To apply or not?

2010-05-26T18:51:00.007+05:30

I have done a bit of research on the Indian Depository Receipt (IDR) issue of Standard Chartered PLC. My analysis is based on following three high level concepts which need to be looked when we want to decide on an IDR:

Business Risk: It refers to the overall expected performance of the firm considering its portfolio composition, geographies of operation and its standalone performance metrics.
Systematic Risk: It refers to the correlation of the underlying stock’s performance with that of FTSE. Since the IDR’s value is ‘derived’ from the stock price of Standard Chartered PLC in FTSE, there would be a component of the IDR’s price impacted by the movements in FTSE – which would be captured in the Systematic risk associated.
Currency Risk: It refers to the relationship between the underlying stock’s currency and the IDR’s currency. Any big, multinational financial institution will have exposure to multiple currencies and there is an inherent currency risk element which should be analysed at a business-as-usual risk; however, since the investment in IDR is in Indian Rupee while the underlying is GBP, there has to be a considerable amount of analysis to assess the GBP/INR movements

Business Risk
Lots of research articles have come on this; in particular I read and liked the content in the following ones – however, not all of them addressed the systematic and currency risk components of the IDR issue.

The primary areas of focus of these articles have been:

the diversification benefits offered to an Indian investor,
the geographical coverage of Standard Chartered with presence in some of the faster developing countries. Following is the distribution of operating income across countries

Though it is understandable to state India and China (as captured in Other Asia & Pacific) and Korea are among the better placed economies coming out of the financial crisis; more thought and analysis needs to be undertaken before stating the same for Hong Kong and Singapore as both these city-states’ health is, more or less, derived from outside – an effect that can be gauged only after looking into the portfolio composition of Standard Chartered in these countries.
lower cost of capital,
better risk management system enabling it to be not adversely impacted by the financial crisis,
healthy proportion of fee based income contribution (22%) to the total operating income.

Systematic Risk
Though the business of Standard Chartered is more concentrated outside Europe, the current IDR represents 10% of the Standard Chartered stock traded in the London Stock exchange (Link). Through all of finance literature, it is continuously found that a major portion of risk-return profile of a stock is systematic factors – which is linked to the overall market – and the remaining portion of risk-return profile is the stock’s own – a.k.a. unsystematic factors. The unsystematic factors are addressed in the ‘Business Risk’ section as outlined in the previous section. Next the investors have to look into the systematic component of the risk in the Standard Chartered IDR issue.

With FTSE 100 being the major index for Standard Chartered, I computed the beta, using data from beginning of 2003, which came to about 1.46. Statistically speaking, a beta of 1.46 infers a high degree of impact of FTSE 100 is in the price of Standard Chartered. Considering the commotion in the Euro zone with respect to Greece and the fate of Euro as a currency hanging in balance and the obvious correlation of FTSE 100 with rest of Europe, the negative impact of the Greece crisis on FTSE 100 would be much more than that on the Indian indices. Numerically inferring from the beta number, a drop of 10% in FTSE 100 would lead to a drop of 14.6% in the Standard Chartered’s stock. This is a major risk which many articles I have come across have missed.

Currency Risk
By currency risk here, I am not referring to the risk the banks encounter as a result of foreign exchange currency movements of its assets, but to the difference in currency of the underlying stock and the IDR – the former being in GBP while the latter is in INR. This means the returns from the IDR is very much linked to the GBP/INR movements. Any appreciation in the INR value against GBP will adversely affect the returns from the IDR. Consider a simple scenario, say Standard Chartered PLC moves from 1630p today to 1800p in a year’s time – giving an appreciation of 10%, but the INR appreciates from 68 INR/GBP to 60 INR/GBP (an appreciation of 12%), the net return from the IDR would be, approximately, a negative 2%. It is very much open to question whether INR would appreciate so much in the next year, but considering the drop of GBP from 80 INR/GBP to 68 INR/GBP now, such a 12% drop does not seem incredulous. However, it is mandatory that the investors look into this factor as well before their decision on investing in the IDR is taken.

Final Call
Considering the above three broad categories of risk, the investors need to make a holistic view of the IDR in relevance to their respective portfolios and then take the final call on investing in the issue if and only if it serves to mitigate certain specific risk for their portfolio. For an individual investor, I would suggest not to invest in the Standard Chartered IDR, but do so with Indian banks.

Wedding Invitation

2010-05-25T10:29:00.000+05:30

It is with great pleasure I invite you for my wedding with Aarthi Shanmukhi on the 7th of June in Tuticorin (Directions from Chennai)

Please treat this as a personal invitation and grace the occasion as we celebrate the start of our marriage and move forward to the next phase of our lives.

Wedding Invitation - Selva

R.S.V.P.
Regards
Selva
+91-9819975057

Book Lists - building a personal library

2010-05-19T11:38:00.002+05:30

With gift coupons worth INR 5000 that can be used only for buying books, I have been actively searching for building my personal collection of books which I can keep in my 'library'. In this quest, I have been looking at multiple lists - here are some, in no particular order:

The following books are in my wish-list for now:

"Out of my comfort zone" by Steve Waugh
"Watchmen" by Alan Moore & Dave Gibbons
"Beyond the blues" by Aakash Chopra
"How chess imitates life" by Garry Kasparov
"On the interpretation of dreams" by Sigmund Freud
"Plato and Platypus walk into a bar" by Thomas Cathcart & Daniel Klein

Any recommendation is welcome for inclusion into or exclusion from my above wishlist. TIA.

Mockery of Sentiment, Law and Public Money

2010-05-17T12:20:00.000+05:30

It is hardly fathomable that the Indian legal process took 18 months to indict a person who committed mass murder on live TV. The excuse that Indian legal process is typically slow - should not apply to such an open and shut case. Now there is a search for the hangman; going by the hysteria of the mainstream media, especially the Satellite News channels, we might even end up having a reality show to identify the most eligible hangman.

Why could not the police / National Security Guards or whosoever nabbed Kasab kill him on the spot?

The last 2 years of his trial has been a total fiasco, wasting public money to the extent of INR 8.5 lacs per day; Going by the law minister's statement it might take about a year more before Kasab is hanged - which translates to INR 31 Crores of expense to house a manic killer.

Resignation Letter

2010-04-27T10:41:00.004+05:30

Dear Sir,

As communicated in my earlier mail (20th April) and during our telephonic discussion, I have decided to resign from the services of xxx Bank. I would like to be relieved from the bank’s services by May 26, 2010.

I fully understand the significance of the xyz project for the bank and my role, in particular. However, given the nature of the initial phase of employment with my next employer and my wedding scheduled for the first week of June, it would be very important for me, both professionally and personally, to be relieved from here on the date specified above. Drawing confidence from my work so far and contribution to the success of the project till now, I also would like to earnestly convey that I will put in double the effort I have spent so far to ensure close-to-complete knowledge transfer does happen from me to whosoever is identified to take up the project further. I do regret for not taking this project to full completion; I would try my best that the project is handed over comprehensively to the successor. I take it as the toughest challenge posed so far in xxx Bank and fully believe I would succeed in that.

Thanks for your support all through since the commencement of this project and look forward to having successful last days at xxx Bank closing with mutual satisfaction.

Regards

IPL - a Bad Habit

2010-04-13T16:18:00.004+05:30

There have been lots of positive and negative reviews on and about people involved in IPL. Be it the cricketing angle of the cannibalization of the longer forms of the game or the excessive physical demands on the players or the razzmatazz of the owners, promoters, cheerleaders or the rigmarole of the moronic commentators or the power fight between the commissioners and the ministers, IPL has got too much variations of below-par stuff.

Just like a bowler specializing in not-having-a-speciality, IPL which provides good quality of nothing still manages to garner eyeballs and mindspace. Nonetheless, I feel IPL is like smoking; just like the inability of the smokers to get rid of smoking even if they want to, I find it hard to let IPL go from the real estate of my mind. I hate watching/following IPL in any form of media but I am ending up following it in all.

IPL is a very bad habit.

Goa & Tamilpadam

2010-02-16T08:02:00.001+05:30

I saw two of the lighter-vein Tamil movies released in the last fortnight: Goa and Tamilpadam. The former was a typical Venkat Prabhu movie with a clear intent of not having a single 'serious' scene; more than a movie, as the director himself portrays towards the end, it was like a holiday and for the audience it was a holiday very well spent. On the other hand, Tamilpadam had been floating around with a lot more hype thanks to the media houses backing the Production house. There were scenes which do capture one's attention at first sight but there was not much content to sustain that attention. There are some funky scenes in the movie but it seems to be stretched too far to fit the number of reels requirement of a typical Indian movie. I must admit I felt a bit sleepy during the second half and I had the feeling I am stuck in a Mumbai local passing Malad station when I need to get down at Churchgate. In spite of the novelty factor and a meaningful song in the movie, Tamilpadam is of the boring movies I have seen in the recent past.

Goa - please go and watch. Tamil padam - stay away.

Avatar - Short Review

2009-12-20T08:25:00.002+05:30

I went to see Avatar - the 3D version - yesterday in PVR-Phoenix, but when I came out I had a feeling I am leaving the planet Pandora. The visual effects are so out-of-the-world (literally!), you would not think, even once, that it is fiction. The picturization is such that if at all man finds life in another planet, a common man would think of this movie's portrayal as to how the new planet would actually be. Some of the scenes in the movie are dream-like: something which is very hard to conjure even in the longest siesta on a Saturday afternoon. Quoting from elsewhere: when the Oscar nominations for the year are announced, this movie would feature in all possible technical categories and most likely win all of those. I strongly recommend all to watch this in 3D and enjoy the ultimate movie experience. Having said that, the story is not something out of the ordinary - it is a simple hero-saves-people storyline. Go for this movie and let James Cameron take you for a trip around Pandora.

Is this the greatest movie in the recent past? I would say 'The Dark Knight' is easily the best in the recent past, if not the greatest of all time. Nonetheless, I would watch Avatar at least twice again.

Innovative Promotional Offer -2

2009-08-20T20:25:00.001+05:30

Only Kishore Biriyani can come up with such things...

Thiruvalluvar Statue

2009-08-10T17:43:00.005+05:30

Human Body:Appendix::Tamilnadu-Karnataka Peace:Thiruvalluvar Statue

The DemiGod Thiruvalluvar had already written a kural (couplet) on avoiding such farcical, useless and potentially dangerous deeds. Remembering from one of my Thirukkural lessons in School:

461. அழிவதூஉம் ஆவதூஉம் ஆகி வழிபயக்கும்
ஊதியமும் சூழ்ந்து செயல்
Weigh well output the loss and gain
And proper action ascertain.

I do not think the statue would in any way help the bonhomie between Tamilnadu and Karnataka; instead it would just act as sink for crows and source of further disputes.

Sustainability of GDP

2009-08-03T16:23:00.002+05:30

Oftentimes it is considered that a growing GDP is a panacea. We (at least yours truly) have believed that an increased Government spending and investment in infrastructure will ‘always’ lead to growth in GDP and hence it contributes towards the panacea for all economic frailties. But as this article from ‘The Economist’ conveys, the constituents of GDP will be an important factor in deciding whether or not the increased investments will have sustainable impact on GDP.

Let me try to give a brief summary of the above article:
GDP = Consumer Spending + Government Spending + Investments + (Exports – Imports)
Further breaking down, GDP = (Household Spending + Corporate Spending) + Government Spending + Investments + (Exports – Imports)

If growth in GDP is not accompanied by growth in Household Spending, that growth in GDP would be short term and would not be sustainable in the long run. Hence for a sustainable and long term growth in GDP, the Governments should target increasing contribution of Household Spending to GDP.

50 things

2009-07-24T17:58:00.002+05:30

Wish there was someone who gave such guidance to me before my college days...
50 Things

A Thought

2009-07-17T13:28:00.001+05:30

Why do we celebrate 'Patriotism'?

Sometimes I think patriotism is one of the root causes of many evils in the world today.

Meh!

2009-07-13T20:30:00.002+05:30

Economic Ramblings

2009-06-17T15:20:00.006+05:30

Cross posted from my other blog: Lifestyle Investments

Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Interest Rates – some of the popular terms any student of Economics will go through, somewhat boringly, in their introductory courses. These concepts when linked to the real world can throw some interesting viewpoints about the various burning issues. In the last 12 months, the central banks/Governments of most countries have, more or less, uniformly and uncharacteristically followed expansive monetary policies to the extent of bringing interest rates close to 0%. This is inline with the Governments’ fiscal policies which are more or less expansive – at least at planning level. An expansive monetary policy and expansive fiscal policy will ring a nice note in one’s ears that things are going fine with the economies. In most cases, this could be true; it may not be so this time around.

If the Governments go for an expansive fiscal policy, the Government will spur spending. For spending, the Government needs money – there are multiple options for the Government to get the money. One, it can print money; two, it can issue bonds and raise debts. The former has its own implications on interest rates and the dreaded fear of deflation resulting in increase of the real cost of borrowing. The latter, however, depends on some other factor so far not mentioned: Debt-to-GDP ratio among other things. The Government’s ability to borrow is inversely proportional to the Debt-to-GDP ratio – less the debt to GDP, the better the borrowing ability of the Government – sounds very intuitive.

There is always a partisan view of the credit rating agencies’ role in the financial world. Irrespective of the side you are in, there is a considerable weight attached to the ratings given out by these agencies. It is only common-sense to believe these agencies downgrade those countries with less borrowing power and less repaying capacity. A very simple indicator of these is the debt-to-GDP ratio. Let us take the case of India. If Debt-to-GDP ratio increases (as this would be most likely the case in the late recession / early recovery stage of the business cycle that we are in; as the GDP would not rise as fast as the rise in debt), the agencies downgrade the ratings of the Government. If this happens, there is a double whammy effect as the existing Government bonds would lose value, investors may begin to dump and the Government would be at a disadvantage at raising money from the markets. Essentially, the market forces would be against an expansive fiscal policy. This is very pertinent in India’s case with a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 58% (compare this to Chinese Debt to GDP ratio of 18%) – so Government may not be able to follow expansive fiscal policy along with an expansive monetary policy.

If it persists with expansive monetary policy in this scenario, there would be too much money chasing too little economic activity, leading to the most commonly known economic term – Inflation. With so much political sense also attached to Inflation, no Government will be willing to let this happen. So, are we heading towards restrictive monetary and restrictive fiscal policies: not likely as this again also has a political and economic cost attached with the R-word and no one wants it. All this means is that the Government has to raise money from somewhere without losing its credit worthiness. The likely sources, I believe, would be PSU divestments, tightening of personal tax regime among other things. All this means is the Government would not be able to undertake a 'market-friendly' budget this time - expect no major tax cuts, duty cuts etc.

The scenario mentioned about India does hold true for developed economies like US (whose monetary policies are more expansive and debt-to-GDP ratio is higher). If China believes the US dollar denominated treasuries are downgradeable, it would be Armageddon – again in 2009. Brace yourself.

Mongoose Bat

2009-05-30T07:48:00.003+05:30

Please do not think this post is about some National Geographic topic on Mongooses and bats, it is the latest invention in cricket which is 'supposed' to revolutionize it.

More details about this 'bat' can be read here; but I fail to understand how a shortened bat will become more powerful when it is alwyas believed bigger and wider the better for bats (not only there!!). But the aerodynamic bat mentioned in the link does sound interesting.