KEVIN KREST'S BEYOND THE COMMENTARY

LIV Gets World Ranking Points: Who Cares? Dead Tour Walking

2026-02-05T16:53:00.002-06:00

After a long battle that included changes in format and certain accommodations to the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) committee, LIV was finally awarded inclusion in the points system that determines inclusion in major championships, among others. I can’t remember a sports decision that is so potentially impactful yet no one seems to be pleased with it.

Initially, the OWGR committee declined points for LIV because of 54-hole events, field spots that were selected as opposed to being earned and shotgun starts. LIV agreed to go to 72-hole tournaments and is reportedly instituting changes that will necessitate qualifying for the tour and also staying exempt from year to year. Apparently, those resulted in the top ten finishers in LIV events being awarded OWGR points beginning this season.

LIV isn’t pleased with the ruling, because it’s limited to the top ten. PGA Tour players aren’t happy about it because 48 player fields that are hand-picked without any qualification criteria don’t come close to PGA Tour or even DP Tour events. The real question is “does it really matter”? With recent defections from LIV, most notably five-time major champion Brooks Koepka and former Masters winner Patrick Reed, questions have arisen about the viability of the LIV Tour itself.

I’ve never thought it was much of a threat to the PGA Tour or the golf establishment from a competitive perspective. Greg Norman and Phil Mickelson, both with significant bones to pick with the PGA Tour, had a motive to bring about change in the Tour that they thought was not providing players their fair share of revenue. Norman has issues that go back 30 years, when then PGA Tour Commissioner Tim Finchem supposedly stole Norman’s Idea for what would become the WGC events that provided global entry into a select number of tournaments with elevated purses.

The last four years, however, have actually resulted in the PGA Tour implementing many changes for which Norman and Mickelson were proponents. Most notable were a handful of signature events that have purses in the $20 million range as well as a program that rewards players with Tour equity as well as substantial bonuses. Add to that the lack of any meaningful television contract for LIV and no additional PGA Tour defections beyond Jon Rahm two years ago and the result is a Tour on life support, albeit one that is incredibly well-funded.

LIV needs to face the reality that, and I’ve maintained this from the beginning, it’s nothing more than a travelling golf exhibition with players paid to appear, not really compete. The quick reaction of the PGA Tour to funnel more money to its players along with the resistance of most high profile players like Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and others, resulted in dooming LIV to failure with traditional golf fans, not to mention sponsors and advertisers.

The last dominoes to fall will most likely be Bryson DeChambeau, who went public last week with his dissatisfaction over LIV’s changes, and Jon Rahm, who at his age is still able to rescue his legacy. DeChambeau’s importance to LIV can’t be overstated and whether he returns to the PGA Tour or not is irrelevant if he departs when his contract is up at the end of the season. At this point, however, nothing LIV can do will secure any kind of relevant future for the Saudi investment fund backed endeavor.

The PGA and DP World Tour vs. LIV Golf: Who is on the Right Side?

2022-08-04T20:41:00.005-05:00

The golf world, once a place of civility, whispers and etiquette has suddenly been turned on its head. If you thought the Ryder Cup celebration at The Country Club in 1999 following a mile and a half made Justin Leonard putt was disruptive, then what LIV Golf has done is nothing short of an eighteen hole tsunami. The closest golfers usually get to a courtroom are when they try to set up a tee time with the local judge who happens to be in their foursome.

But now, we have Jay Monahan of the PGA Tour and Keith Pelley of the DP World Tour (formerly the European Tour) on one side and Greg Norman and eleven LIV and now suspended PGA Tour players on the other side. The battle lines have been drawn and the dispute appears to headed to court as the players have filed an antitrust lawsuit against the PGA Tour. We're not talking about the Joel Dahmen's and Beau Hossler's here, but instead they're the likes of Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau, players with 77 Tour victories and nine major championships between just the three of them.

On the one hand, this dispute between the established Tours and LIV appears to be somewhat complex, especially when considering that the source of the funding is Saudi Arabia. We've heard talk of human rights violations, appearance money instead of purses distributed on the basis of performance and even that the startup is somehow damaging the integrity of the game.

In order to keep this piece to a length that won't require the consumption of a meal while reading it, I'll try to be brief on my take on the entire dispute. First of all, the PGA Tour is comprised of players who are all independent contractors, as much as the Tour would like to think differently. With the exception of the four World Golf Championship events that don't have a cut, thus guaranteeing players a minimum payday, a player has to make it to the weekend to be compensated for that event.

If a player doesn't finish in the top 125 in FedEx Cup points at the end of the season, they lose their fully exempt status on the Tour. If they finish outside the top 200, they basically lose all status whatsoever. So these guys have travel expenses, caddies, coaches and whoever else they wish to employ, with no guaranteed money outside of any sponsorships or exhibition pay they might be able to negotiate. None of that, however, comes courtesy of the PGA Tour or any of its 45 or so events.

Then along comes LIV Golf, which is offering some players more than $100 million over several years to participate in their Tour. Now let's take Dustin Johnson as an example. He's been on Tour for 15 years with 24 victories, including a pair of major championships. Johnson's career earnings on Tour stand at just under $75 million. He signed with LIV for at least $125 million, and that's in addition to any tournament winnings he amasses with his play on the course. At the time he was suspended from the PGA Tour, he'd earned $1.6 million in the current season.

In last week's LIV event in Bedminster, New Jersey, Johnson finished second in the individual competition and he was a member of the winning team, handing the 38 year old a total paycheck for the week of just over $2.5 million. That brought his total LIV winnings to over $5.2 million, and that's for playing 54 hole events with no cut. The winner of the event, Henrik Stenson, won $4 million individually and another $750,000 for his team's second place finish. Stenson was forced out as the European Ryder Cup captain after signing with LIV.

To say it's all about the money would probably be accurate, although some players have also expressed that part of their motivation was the way they've been treated by the PGA Tour. Don't get me wrong. Many of these players have been highly compensated for years and I'm not painting any of them as lacking financially. Nonetheless, guaranteed money, shorter golf tournaments, a team component and bigger purses all add up to a huge incentive for players to make the jump. After all, even though they're competitors, golf is a business and it's their livelihood.

What's interesting about this situation is that shortly following the inception of the LIV season and in response to the continuing exodus of players from the PGA and DP World Tours, the PGA Tour announced big changes to the Tour schedule, tournament formats and purse sizes. They've increased the number of events without a cut and radically raised purse levels for a number of tournaments. For an organization that wanted to stand by the "don't make the cut, don't get paid mantra", it smacks somewhat of hypocrisy.

I'm no legal expert, but when a non-profit organization suspends or kicks out independent contractors who get no guarantees on a week to week or season to season basis, it would appear the PGA Tour has a pretty thin case. In conversations with a longtime friend who also spent his career in the golf business, it doesn't make a lot of sense for the Tours to suspend these players for simply pursuing a living. LIV Golf could easily have coexisted with the PGA and DP World Tours. Both of those organizations have minimum participation requirements in order to retain membership.

LIV golfers could have chosen to play the minimum number of Tour events while still participating in LIV tournaments. The goal of LIV, as explained this week on "Tucker Carlson Tonight" during interviews with Norman and DeChambeau, is to bring a different type of fan experience to the sport. It's as if TopGolf suddenly came to a country club near you. Now the PGA and DP World Tours simply look jealous and vindictive, and may very well lose in court or need to come up with some compromise to avoid legal embarrassment.

There are still some issues around how long LIV Golf may survive, especially without a television contract or Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) points awarded for tournament play. The earliest OWGR points could be granted would be July of 2024, so even if the other bodies such as the PGA of America, the USGA and the Masters allow LIV golfers to play in their major events, it's doubtful they can qualify, except for the players who have exemptions already in place.

Where will this go? My prediction, and if you've ever seen my football prognostication, could be spot on or wildly inaccurate. I am guessing that LIV could end up going the way of the original USFL, while many of the new ideas generated finding their way to the major Tours. They already have to an extent. I find it hard to believe that top players, despite the money, will want to be on the outside looking in when it comes time for the Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open and the Open Championship.

What's really interesting is that a victory in court for the players could actually end up being the best thing to happen to the PGA and DP World Tours. It would mean they would retain the top players for many of their events, making it more difficult for LIV Golf to gain additional traction. I believe the players will prevail and the Tours will work out some sort of compromise with LIV Golf to return civility to the game.

The latest novel in the PK Frazier series is now available. "Unplayable Lie", as well as the first three installments, can be found at PK Frazier novels

COACHING GENIUS IN THE NFL

2021-01-26T18:26:00.004-06:00

Today we’ll be looking at what it takes, or more accurately, what it doesn’t take, to be a head football coach in the NFL.

In case you missed this past weekend’s conference championship games, you failed to witness coaching genius on display at the highest level. Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott led his team to a 13-3 record and two additional victories in the playoffs.

Of course, McDermott never played a down or took a snap on the field, but his genius has been on display for all to see since September. The Bills were taking on the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, led by veteran coach Andy Reid, who is also a genius.

The third genius on display Sunday was Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur, who gets that label because he had the smarts to take a job with a team on which plays what many so called experts consider the best quarterback in the Solar System, if not the universe.

Of course, because of Covid-19 there is no intergalactic play, so we’ll have to let you be the judge on whether Aaron Rodgers and his single Super Bowl win qualifies for the lofty title. Lastly, the fourth genius, and probable the only genuine one of the bunch, was Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians.

He convinced his general manager to sign the best quarterback in whatever is bigger than the universe is called. His name is Tom Brady, a 21 year veteran, winner of six Super Bowls and four Super Bowl MVP’s. Arians basically said in an interview last week that he just lets Brady do whatever he wants, that the 43 year old is a coach on the field.

Now let’s rewind to the first game of Sunday’s doubleheader that produced the NFC’s representative to Super Bowl fifty-five. It was a terrific contest, with the Bucs jumping out to an 18 point lead early in the third quarter, partially due to LeFleur’s inability to manage the clock at the end of the first half, which enabled the Bucs to score on a 39 yard touchdown pass with one second left.

The Bucs took a 21-10 lead into the locker room, then came out in the third quarter and scored again in just over a minute. The Packers scored a touchdown to make it 28-17, then got into the end zone again to cut the lead to 28-23 with 24 seconds left in the third quarter. This is where LeFleur’s genius really began to shine, and why he’s the coach and we’re not.

His team has all of the momentum and if they make the extra point, the Packers would be back within four. A stop and a touchdown puts them up by three, or even a Bucs field goal leaves Green Bay within a touchdown and a made extra point from a tie.

But LeFleur is smarter than the rest of us, so he goes for two, thinking rightfully so that it would leave him within a field goal of tying the game. But he didn’t think of the ramifications of missing such a conversion. Well, the greatest quarterback in the universe didn’t get it done, the Bucs get a field goal and the Packers find themselves down by eight, not seven.

Rodgers, because he’s, well, you know, drives the Packers down to the Bucs eight yard line with two minutes and twenty seconds left on the clock. It’s third down and Rodgers gets chased from the pocket with nothing but green Lambeau Field turf in front of him. Instead of taking off for the end zone, he throws an errant pass for an incompletion, bringing up fourth down.

The Packers still had all three timeouts remaining, and I’m sure that Rodgers threw the ball thinking they would go for it on fourth down. A field goal would still leave the Pack needing a touchdown, even if they could get the ball back from Brady, the greatest quarterback in, well, you know, that really big thing beyond the universe. A touchdown and a two point conversion is all they needed to tie the game. It would be a great, dramatic fourth down play, right?

Well, instead, out trots Mason Crosby, Green Bay’s field goal kicker, and hits the kick and cuts the lead to five. And guess what? Rodgers never gets his hands back on the football and the Bucs advanced to the Super Bowl, Brady’s tenth.

Just when we thought we’d witnessed the ultimate in coaching genius from LaFleur, McDermott showed us that we really are just neophytes when it comes to football acumen and higher algebra. The Chiefs let their opponent jump out to the obligatory nine or ten or seventeen point lead, it doesn’t really matter to them. Anyway, the Bills led 9-0 early before the Chiefs showed them who was boss, and that’s clearly Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, injured toe or not.

By midway in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs were clearly in control, 38-15. Buffalo had missed the extra point following their fourth touchdown, which didn’t seem to matter until it did. But with just over four minutes left in the game, Buffalo scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 38-21.

No brainer for the Bills, kick the extra point, cut the lead to 16 points, recover an onside kick and maybe get the thing to one score with a couple of minutes left. But somewhere on his big sheet of paper coaches carry around for just such occasions, McDermott saw something to this effect: seventeen points behind, four minutes left, need to recover an onside kick no matter what, maybe two. 15 points down, great, 17 points down okay, even though it would essentially negate the touchdown we just scored and still leave us three possessions behind, and 16 points down apparently unacceptable.

So with the 16 points option apparently off the table, McDermott goes for two, doesn’t make it and essentially the game is over. But he continues to defy logic by trying an onside kick. If that was the strategy all along, then why not get the extra point? Was it because the guy had missed one already? Really? How many NFL kicker miss two extra points in the same game?

And here’s the real “kicker”, pun totally intended. They attempted the onside kick and miraculously, the Bills recovered. But instead of being down two scores with four minutes left and possession of the ball in great field position, they were down three. Essentially, the game was over.

A quick score, which the Bills are totally capable of, would have made it interesting, if not downright compelling. Instead, the genius of Sean McDermott, something we will never comprehend, didn’t let that happen. But hey, these guys are savants, worth millions of dollars a year. What do we know?

The latest novel in the PK Frazier series is now available. "Unplayable Lie", as well as the first three installments, can be found at PK Frazier novels

NFL WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS: 80% SUCCESS RATE IN JEOPARDY

2020-09-27T00:46:00.004-05:00

Week 3 shapes up as a tough one for predictions. After a pretty strong start to the season, I could take a real beating this after a difficult slate of games. Sunday night has the 2-0 Packers visiting the 1-1 Saints and the week ends with Monday’s clash between heavy weight Baltimore hosting defending champion Kansas City. This could be a real blood bath.

Last Week:

Straight up: 14-1 93.3%

Against the Spread (ATS): 9-6 60%

Overall:

Straight Up: 24-6 80%

ATS: 19-11 63.3%

Chicago (2-0) 26 @ Atlanta (0-2) (-3.0) (47.5): I can understand why the winless Falcons are favorites over the undefeated Bears, but for some reason I like the Bears.

Los Angeles Rams (2-0) 27 @ Buffalo (2-0) (-2.0) 24 (47.0): The Rams have been impressive with wins over the Cowboys and Eagles. They play their second consecutive game on the east coast, but this team looks like the 2018 version to me and can squeak one out in Buffalo.

Washington (1-1) 23 @ Cleveland (1-1) (-7.0) 20 (45.0): For some reason, I just can’t buy into the Browns winning consecutive games. Washington looked great in the final three quarters of Game 1 against the Eagles, but struggled in Arizona last week. That Cardinals loss won’t look that bad as the season progresses.

Tennessee (2-0) (-2.5) 26 @ Minnesota (0-2) 23 (49.0): It’s been a rough start for the Vikings and the Titans don’t intend to make it any easier for them. This is my fourth straight road team I’m picking to win. Am I crazy or what?

Las Vegas (2-0) 30 @ New England (1-1) (-6.0) 28 (47.5): Why stop now? I like what Jon Gruden has done with the Raiders and I think they’ll roll into Foxboro with a little bit of an edge. The Patriots are still lacking skill player depth, despite the addition of Cam N:ewton at quarterback.

San Francisco (1-1) (-4.0) 24 @ New York Giants (0-2) 27 (41.5): The Giants have competed well in their two losses and despite losing running back Saquon Barkley for the season, they have a good chance to get their first win over a banged up Niners team playing their second consecutive game in the Meadowlands.

Cincinnati (0-2) 24 @ Philadelphia (0-2) (-5.5) 31 (46.0): After taking a 17-0 lead over Washington in Week 1, the Eagles have pretty much disappeared. It’s time for them to show up.

Houston (0-2) 20 @ Pittsburgh (2-0) (-4.0) 27 (45.0): The Texans have been victims of a brutal beginning to 2020, with losses to conference leaders Kansas City and Baltimore. Even so, they haven’t looked good, and Pittsburgh has.

New York Jets (0-2) 24 @ Indianapolis (1-1) (-10.5) 30 (44.5): The Colts stubbed their toe against the Jaguars in their first game, but enter their third game as the biggest favorites of the week. I like the Jets to keep this closer than expected.

Carolina (0-2) 22 @ Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) (-6.5) 30 (43.5): The Chargers got a great game out of rookie backup quarterback Justin Herbert last week. He will start again against the Panthers, who will have a tough afternoon in Southern California.

Tampa Bay (1-1) (-6.0) 20 @ Denver (0-2) 24 (43.0): The Broncos might be the best 0-2 team in the league. Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has a lot of fond experience as a visitor in Denver, but this one might not be as pleasant.

Detroit (0-2) 17 @ Arizona (2-0) (-5.5) 27 (55.5): The Cardinals have been impressive this season and there is nothing to lead anyone to believe Detroit has enough to give them big trouble in this one.

Dallas (1-1) 23 @ Seattle (2-0) (-4.5) 27 (56.0): The Cowboys could easily have won both of their games, or lost them both. Instead they split, but will have to play better as they head to Seattle. The Seahawks have played great in their first two games.

Green Bay (2-0) 31 @ New Orleans (1-1) (-3.0) 27 (52.5): For some reason, despite scoring more points than any other team, heads to the Big Easy as underdogs. That’s not my opinion, as I think the Packers are the most dangerous team in the league.

Kansas City (2-0) 30 @ Baltimore (2-0) (-3.5) 28 (54.5): In what is easily the most anticipated game of the week, if not the season, we’ll get to see the two most exciting players in the game. Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens will feature their quarterbacking skills on Monday Night Football. I’m sticking with the defending champs.

The latest novel in the PK Frazier series is now available. "Unplayable Lie", as well as the first three installments, can be found at PK Frazier novels

NFL WEEK 2 PICKS: THERE'S DESPERATION IN THE AIR

2020-09-19T20:55:00.002-05:00

Week 1 was pretty good, but if Titans kicker Steven Gostkowski had made just one of the missed three field goals and an extra point, it would have been even better ATS. With no preseason and almost no fans in the stands, correctly picking 66.7%of the games is a good start to the 2020 season. To continue the success, perhaps it would be better to just use a dart board or flip a coin, but I’m just not that smart. Week 2 awaits with the 0-1 teams already in desperation mode, with only 11% of 0-2 teams going on to earn a playoff berth since 2002.

Straight up: 10-5 66.7%

Against the Spread (ATS): 10-5 66.7%

Atlanta (0-1) 21 @ Dallas (0-1) (-4.0) 27 (52.5): The Cowboys couldn’t find a way to win a game they probably should have last week at the Rams, continuing losses in close games that extends to last season. The Falcons got soundly beaten by the Seahawks at home and will be dealing with a small but hostile crowd, estimated to be around 20,000, in AT&T Stadium.

Buffalo (1-0) (-5.5) 24 @ Miami (0-1) (41.0) 16 : The Bills got off to a good start to the season with a 10-point win over the Jets while the Dolphins struggled offensively in a 21-11 loss to the Pats. If the Bills are going to challenge New England for the AFC East title, this is a game they need to win.

Carolina (0-1) 26 @ Tampa Bay (0-1) (-9.0) 33 (47.5): Tom Brady wasn’t sharp in his Buccaneer debut in New Orleans, despite playing in an empty Mercedes-Benz Superdome. He threw two interceptions, one for a Saints touchdown and will need to improve for the Bucs to contend for the playoffs. The Panthers gave the Raiders a good battle, giving up a go ahead touchdown in the last five minutes.

Denver (0-1) 20 @ Pittsburgh (1-0) (-7.5) 28 (41.0): After two years out of the playoffs, the Steelers got off to a good start against the Giants, but they’ll take a step up in class against a Broncos team that struggled offensively in a last second 16-14 loss to the Titans. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was in decent form after returning from an elbow injury that caused him to miss almost all of last season.

Detroit (0-1) 21 @ Green Bay (1-0) (-6.0) 30 (49.0): The Packers are coming off an upset of the Minnesota Vikings, scoring the most points of any team in Week 1. A dropped pass inside the five yard line could have given the Lions a win over the Bears, but instead faces an early season must win situation in Green Bay.

Jacksonville (1-0) 16 @ Tennessee (1-0) (-9.0) 23 (43.0): Tennessee barely escaped Denver with a win last week after kicker Stephen Gostkoswski missed three field goals and an extra point before nailing a 25 yarder with 17 seconds left to secure the victory. They’ll need Gostkowski to find his form against a surprising Jaguars team that upset Colts last week behind quarterback Gardner Minshew.

Los Angeles Rams (1-0) 26 @ Philadelphia (0-1) (-1.0) 24 (46.0): The Eagles are probably still reeling from watching an early 17-0 lead disappear in an ugly 27-17 loss to Washington. On the other coast, the Rams held off Dallas to win 20-17 in an attempt to return to their Super Bowl form of 2019. The Redskins were able to get to Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz, something the Eagles will need to fix if they hope to avoid starting 0-2.

Minnesota (0-1) 27 @ Indianapolis (0-1) (-3.0) 24 (48.5): Neither of these teams had a good start to the season as they suffered big defeats to division foes. The Vikings gave up 43 points to the Packers last week and will need to play better against Phillip Rivers and the Colts.

New York Giants (0-1) 20 @ Chicago (1-0) 27 (-5.5) (42.0): The Bears escaped Detroit with a big divisional win and is looking to continue the good play at home. They gave up a lot of yards, but limited the damage while the Giants never really got their offense going against the Steelers.

San Francisco (0-1) (-7.0) 30 @ New York Jets (0-1) (42.0): The 49ers are one of only three road favorites this week, coming off a tough 24-20 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. They’ll need to get past the Jets as it appears Arizona might turn the NFC West into a four team race. After a double digit loss to the Bills, the Jets still don’t look like anything close to a playoff team.

Washington (1-0) 20 @ Arizona (1-0) (-6.5) 24 (48.0): Both of these teams pulled off surprising upsets last week against divisional rivals. Washington’s defense stiffened in the last three quarters against the Eagles and Cards quarterback Kyler Murray will be a stern test, as he was able to erase a ten-point deficit. Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins lit up the Niners secondary for 150 yards on 14 catches.

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) (-7.0) 31 @ Houston (0-1) 20 (51.5): Someone in the NFL front office must have something against the Texans as they’ve had to open the season with consecutive games against the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and last year’s best regular season performer. Houston lost last week’s game 34 – 20 and they should expect more of the same in Week 2.

Kansas City (1-0) (-9.0) 27 Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) 24 (47.5): The Chiefs successfully began defense of their title while the Chargers headed east and came away from Cincinnati with a close victory. I just have a gut feeling that Tyrod Taylor and the Chargers will give Kansas City a tougher battle than most people think.

New England (1-0) 24 @ Seattle (1-0) 28 (-3.5) (45.0): Week 2 comes to a close with the Patriots making one of the longest road trips in the NFL. Seattle made a similar journey last week and came out of Atlanta with an opening game win. The Pats Cam Newton will have to pull off some heroics for his team to add some joy to the long flight back to Boston.

New Orleans (1-0) (-6.0) 28 @ Las Vegas (1-0) 30 (49.0): The Saints struggled on offense last week and the Raiders are coming off a road win at Carolina. This should have been quite an event for Monday Night Football, with the first ever NFL game being played in Las Vegas, place prior commissioners of league deemed as off limits. Leave it to the Raiders to break that claim, but the game will be played in a brand new stadium without fans. Look for the home team, if they can limit their turnovers, to hand the road favorites a tough loss.

The latest novel in the PK Frazier series is now available. "Unplayable Lie", as well as the first three installments, can be found at PK Frazier novels

COLLEGE FOOTBALL UPDATE: ARE THERE ANY ADULTS IN THE ROOM?

2020-09-16T16:05:00.017-05:00

From the same people who brought you athletic conferences with names that don’t coincide with the number of member schools and a complete shutdown of fall sports two months before having enough data on which to base a decision, we now get a reversal of policy and an October beginning to the 2020 Big Ten football season. It appears that all it took was for Notre Dame, smack in the middle of the Big Ten’s geographic footprint, to play a game in front of thousands of students, faculty and staff to convince the conference presidents that it’ll be okay to get underway next month.

The SEC, ACC and the Big 12’s 10 teams (this failure to count is almost an epidemic) began play last weekend, thus Notre Dame’s home win over Duke in South Bend, Indiana, a state where two Big 10 schools are located. Not that anyone is actually keeping track, but the Big Ten has 14 schools but apparently a name with the wrong number doesn’t strike anyone in a conference comprised of institutions of higher learning as anything but totally normal.

The Big 12 schools are playing a round robin conference schedule plus a patsy game designed to make sure its teams play the same number of games as the SEC, which has limited its teams to only conference games, but expanded that number to 10 for this season. The SEC has vehemently opposed the move to even nine conference games in the past on the basis that its teams are so good that it would be too punishing for them to face each other that many times in a single season. But enter COVID-19 and the prospect of less television revenue, and all of a sudden the conference must have decided they don’t have such a tough bunch of teams after all, in spite of what Alabama coach Nick Saban says.

With the non-conference game, the Big 12 was probably thinking its teams would be able to schedule a game against a non-Power Five team, thus getting an extra win that the SEC teams won’t be able to grab. Oops! Sun Belt members Arkansas State and Louisiana (not to be confused with LSU, although don’t tell Iowa State that) went into empty stadiums in Manhattan, Kansas and Ames, Iowa to deal Kansas State and Iowa State upset losses. Maybe the conference should add those two teams to their membership so it doesn’t look so bad and, in the process, get the name to match the number of schools.

After centuries (okay, it’s really only one century and a third of another) of refusing to include their football team in a conference, suddenly Notre Dame is all in with the Atlantic Coast Conference. If you thought math wasn’t necessarily a strong suit of athletic leagues, it appears that their understanding of geography is equally as weak. At last count, and this isn’t taking into consideration the two centimeters the ocean has risen in the last 30 years due to climate change, South Bend is roughly 700 miles from the Atlantic Ocean. It apparently makes no sense for Notre Dame to be in the Big Ten, where they would be within five hours from at least nine of the conference’s other 14 schools. But I guess 14 schools in a 10 team conference is okay, but 15 is just out of the question.

And then what about that pesky Atlantic Coast Conference? They also expanded their conference schedule from eight games to ten, and also allowed a non-conference game, but it had to be played in the same state as the school. Just so I have this straight, teams of member schools can travel outside the state to play schools in the same conference, but not to play schools in other conferences, but schools from outside the conference can travel from outside their state to play in the state of the ACC member school. Perhaps the President’s task force on COVID-19 would be interested to understand the nature of the interstate interconference cross contagiousness of and the intrastate intraconference immunity from the virus, because frankly, I’m a little confused.

Meanwhile, the Pac-12 (which by some miscalculation actually consists of 12 member schools) has not announced any change to its cancellation of the football season. California Governor Gavin Newsom said Wednesday that there are no state restrictions prohibiting the conference from playing football games. Once again, that crazy math enters the picture, as California guidelines put forth by the governor limit gatherings to no more than 12 people. Yes, there are only 11 players from a team on the field at the same time, but my minimal knowledge of the game suggests that there needs to be another 11 players from the opposing team somewhere in the general vicinity. Even using conference math, where 12 added to 14 equals 22, or is 10 added to 12 equals 26, or is it…oh, forget it, you get my point, there needs to be more than 12 players on the field to play a game. Whether Newsom isn’t aware of his own guidelines, he can’t count, or because it isn’t a church he doesn’t really care, there’s a huge disconnect somewhere between Sacramento and Pasadena.

What should distress you about this piece is not the corny attempt at humor, although I wouldn’t blame you for feeling that way, it’s that the information about the conferences and their respective decisions are all factual. This is really happening, right now, in September 2020. After almost eight months of the COVID-19 reality, we have decisions being made based on a variety of data points, for different reasons and for the benefit of conflicting constituencies.

The latest novel in the PK Frazier series is now available. "Unplayable Lie", as well as the first three installments, can be found at PK Frazier novels

NFL Week One Picks: Brady and Brees Face Off in The Big Easy

2020-09-12T20:58:00.014-05:00

Week 1 began with the Kansas City Chiefs replicating their come from behind playoff victory over the Texans, this time spotting Houston a 7-0 lead on their way to a 34-20 win in front of about 17,000 fans. Only one other game will played with spectators in attendance, with the other 14 stadiums empty this weekend and for the foreseeable future. There is still a possibility that one or more stadiums, including AT&T Stadium in Dallas, will host some fans in Week 2. With no preseason and a lot of uncertainty surrounding the NFL and other sports, I present my Week 1 predictions.

Miami 14 @ New England (-6.5 spread) 23 (42 over/under): The Patriots begin a season without quarterback Tom Brady for the first time since 2000 after parting ways with the future Hall of Famer. He’ll be replaced by former Carolina Panther Cam Newton, who will give offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels a new dimension to his attack. These teams ended the 2019 regular season in Miami, where the Dolphins came away 27-24 victors to complete a dismal 5-11 season. The Dolphins will start journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center, with rookie Tua Tagovailoa waiting in the wings. The Pats will again rely on their defense as they made minimal changes at the offensive skill positions.

Cleveland 17 @Baltimore (-7.5) 31 (47.5): The Ravens ended a great 2019 campaign with a disappointing 28-12 loss to Tennessee in the divisional round of the playoffs. After a 14-2 season, much more was expected from Baltimore in the postseason. They should be able to feast on a Cleveland team that will be playing its first game under new coach Kevin Stefanski, who hasn’t had chance to work with his staff under game conditions due to the cancellation of the preseason.

New York Jets 16 @ Buffalo (-6.5) 20 (39.0): Neither of these teams were able to generate much offense last season but the Bills’ defense led them to a spot in the playoffs, where they lost to the Texans 22-19 in overtime. Third year quarterback Sam Darnold is looking to continue making progress for the Jets after leading them to a less than satisfying 7-9 season in 2019. Don’t look for many touchdowns in this one so the Jets should be able to keep it close.

Las Vegas (3.0) 27 @ Carolina 17 (48.0): The Raiders’ move to Sin City is now complete, but they open the 2020 season on the road against a Panthers team with a new coaching staff headed by former Baylor head coach Matt Rhule, who inherits a team coming off a 5-11 season. Las Vegas, despite much speculation about the future of quarterback Derek Carr, will begin the season with him as their starter. It’s tough for west coast teams to head east for an early game, but the Raiders are a couple of years into a rebuilding effort that should begin to show results this season.

Seattle 21 (-2.5) @ Atlanta 24 (48.5): Another team from the west heads east as the Seahawks travel to Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off a disappointing 7-9 season, but the offense still has Matt Ryan at quarterback, Julio Jones at wide receiver and added Todd Gurley at running back. A healthy and effective Gurley could give Atlanta hope of contending in the NFC South. The Seahawks were an 11-5 playoff team last year and should again contend for a playoff spot, but I just have a feeling about this one.

Philadelphia (-5.5) 20 @ Washington 17 (42.5): This game will most likely look a lot like a large number of Washington’s games last season, where they played very good defense, but lacked enough offense to get a victory. Judging from the depth chart, it doesn’t look like they made enough moves to make any significant improvement except hoping that second year quarterback Dwayne Haskins will somehow suddenly take big strides forward. Washington also has a new head coach, Ron Rivera, late of the Carolina Panthers. The Eagles were gifted a division crown by the inept Cowboys last year and will once again depend on the Carson Wentz remaining healthy at quarterback, although they have rookie Jalen Hurts on the roster.

Chicago 27 @ Detroit (-3.0) 23 (42.5): Despite just three wins in 2019 and losing their final nine games including two against Chicago, the Lions are three point favorites against the Bears, who went 8-8 last season. Perhaps there is a lack of confidence in Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky, but he is now backed up by the very capable and former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles.

Indianapolis (-7.5) 24 @ Jacksonville 20 (45.0): In one of only two games that will be played in front of fans, Jacksonville will be looking to provide a good start to head coach Doug Marrone’s fourth season which will likely be his last unless they improve on last season’s 6-10 record. Quarterback Garner Minshew performed well enough in his rookie season to get him the starting nod for 2020. Former Chargers signal caller Philip Rivers arrived in Indianapolis after 16 years in San Diego, giving Colts’ fans hope that he can lead the team to the playoffs.

Green Bay 27 @ Minnesota (-2.5) 28 (45.0): The Packers are coming off a 13-3 season that ended with a 37-20 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Championship game. Despite still being led Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, many experts feel that Green Bay could take a significant step backwards this season due to the front office bungling the offseason, including the draft. The Vikings are also coming off some postseason success, also getting eliminated by the 49ers after upsetting the Saints in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. With a drop off by the Packers, Minnesota is expected to challenge for the NFC North title.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.0) 23 @ Cincinnati 21 (41.0): The Chargers turn to veteran Tyrod Taylor to replace the departed Philip Rivers at quarterback. Rookie quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow takes over at quarterback for the Bengals, so both teams will be breaking in new leaders as they try to rebound from poor finishes in 2019. They combined for a just seven wins, so a victory for either one would be a welcome beginning to 2020.

Arizona 27 @ San Francisco (-7.0) 24 (48.0): Former Patriot backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo led the resurgent Niners to the Super Bowl, where they fell short against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite being big underdogs on the road, the Cardinals are my big upset pick of the week as they began to show some promise late in 2019. Second year quarterback Kyler Murray should be ready to take the next step in development and the 49ers might be a little hungover from that Super Bowl beat down.

Tampa Bay 27 @ New Orleans (-3.5) 30 (48.0): The total age of the starting quarterbacks in this game is 84 years old and they’ve combined for 151,987 yards and 1088 touchdown passes in their careers. Tom Brady, the older of the two at 43, will be starting his first game for the Bucs after spending 20 seasons in New England, where he won six Super Bowls in nine appearances. For the Saints, 41 year old Drew Brees has intimated that he is nearing the end of his career after signing a two-year contract extension. The two legends have met five times, with Brees coming out on top in the first three and Brady prevailing in the two most recent matchups. If they both play the next couple of seasons and stay healthy, this will be the first of at least four more NFC South meetings on the field. Even with the reunion of Brady and his tight end from New England, Rob Gronkowski, the home Saints probably have too much for the Bucs.

Dallas (-2.5) 34 @ Los Angeles Rams 27 (51.5): This Sunday night gem was supposed to showcase the opening of the $5 billion SoFi Stadium, home to the Rams and the Chargers. Of course, the new venue will still get its debut, but without the benefit of the fans and the atmosphere that comes with them. Neither of these teams made the playoffs in 2019 but have expectations of making the postseason in 2020. The Cowboys lost six of seven of their one-possession games last season, so they’ll need to turn that statistic around in what is expected to be a close game on Sunday. With quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receiver Amari Cooper in place for 2020, it’s not surprising for a Dallas team that was fourth in the conference in scoring in 2019 to be expected to put up some big offensive numbers for new coach Mike McCarthy. Behind quarterback Jared Goff, the Rams are looking to return to their 2018 form that resulted in a Super Bowl appearance.

Pittsburgh (-6.0) 31 New York Giants 20 (46.0): The big question for the Steelers, who are coming off an atypical 8-8 season, at least for one of the most consistent franchises in the last 25 years, is whether quarterback Ben Roethlisberger can fully recover from the elbow injury that shortened his 2019 season. This first game of ESPN’s Monday Night Football doubleheader will feature the third NFC East team with a new head coach, the Giants’ Joe Judge. Second year quarterback Daniel Jones will try to build on his decent rookie campaign which ultimately resulted in the retirement of Eli Manning. With Giants Stadium empty, the home team coming off a four win season and a new head coach, it’s hard to see a stunning upset over the Steelers.

Tennessee (-2.5) 27 @ Denver 23 (41.5): Week 1 concludes in Denver as the Broncos try to work their way back to being a playoff team. After leading the Titans to a great playoff run, Ryan Tannehill is entrenched as the starting quarterback, resulting in the departure of Marcus Mariota. Tennessee is hoping to build on the end to their 2019 season when they defeated the Patriots and Ravens on the road before falling to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. Now they go back on the road to what would ordinarily be a very hostile environment, but will be far more benign with the absence of fans.

The latest novel in the PK Frazier series is now available. "Unplayable Lie" as well as the first three installments can be found at PK Frazier novels

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL PREDICTIONS

2019-12-21T13:24:00.002-06:00

It’s hard to believe that with 39 bowl games including 78 teams that an eligible team could find a way to get left out. Leave it to Toledo from the Mid-American Conference to be the one to get to be home for the holidays. Of course, they may have been lobbying to stay out of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in the garden spot of Boise, Idaho. We’ll never know of course, but if some Toledo offensive lineman tweets pictures from the beach in St. Somewhere, well, maybe we’ll have our answer.

For 74 other teams that aren’t competing for a national title, there are a variety of motivations for playing in a December or January game. Whether it be the extra practices to prepare for the 2020 season, bragging rights in the recruiting wars, the chance to play underclassmen or just to work on their tans, they’ll all be lining up with a chance to end the season with a victory. While a handful of games actually have some level of national interest, most are marginally compelling and are little more than programming content for ESPN, which actually owns and operates 14 of these games through its ESPN Events division.

Predicting these games is college football’s version of playing roulette and craps, all rolled into one. The roulette for the luck and craps for the quality of play. Okay, maybe that’s not fair, but it does tend to be accurate. Last year’s bowl games, including the College Football Playoffs, had an average margin of victory of 17 points, with 16 games decided by one score or less. I’m just the messenger.

December 20

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

Buffalo (7 - 5) 31 vs. Charlotte (7 - 5) 37: This game is sponsored by Elk Grove Village, the nation’s largest industrial park. I have no idea what a football game played in a 15,000 seat soccer/cricket stadium in a tourist country has to do with domestic manufacturing, but it looks like a creative way for the managers to justify a pre-Christmas vacation where the 80 degree weather and beaches beat the hell out of whatever is happening in the Chicago area. It makes me feel good about my marketing degree.

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Utah State (7 - 5) 31 vs. Kent State (6 - 6) 20: Here’s another game played in a soccer stadium, this one with an overwhelming capacity of 20,000. Are there going to be goal posts or soccer goals in place? Do you have to run into the goal for a touchdown? How will extra points work? Kent State represents the MAC, which had an abysmal 14 - 34 non-conference record, against Mountain West member Utah State, whose conference ran up a 31 - 18 record outside the league. In addition, I heard a rumor that next year’s event will be called the Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco State Bowl.

December 21

New Mexico Bowl

Central Michigan (8 - 5) 28 vs. San Diego State (9 - 3) 34: Another MAC team shows up here, this time it’s the loser of the conference championship game, against the team that finished second in their division of the Mountain West. The purpose of this game is to incent you to make a visit to the great city of Albuquerque. First, you have to watch the game. Second, you have to figure out how to spell “Albuquerque”.

FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl

Liberty (7 - 5) 24 vs. Ga. Southern (7 - 5) 27: The 25,500 seat Exploria Stadium, another soccer venue, will be the site for this game. Really? Orlando has two football stadiums but for some reason they mustn’t be sufficient. In all seriousness, this game benefits the fight against cancer and celebrates its survivors. There is a pre-game block party and cancer tribute march featuring survivors and other supporters that will end at the stadium.

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

SMU (10 - 2) 38 vs. Florida Atlantic (10 - 3) 31: FAU head coach Lane Kiffin has accepted the same job at Ole Miss, so he won’t be coaching in this game. It really doesn’t matter, as SMU is the better team anyway. Of course, it helps FAU to be playing a bowl game on their home field. What a great reward for a good season, staying home for your bowl game. I guess it could be worse. They could have had to play in Boise.

Camellia Bowl

Florida International (6 - 6) 31 vs. Arkansas State (7 - 5) 35: This game is played in the garden spot of Montgomery, Alabama. I’m pretty sure kids grow up, throw the ball around in the back yard and dream of one day earning a trip to the Camellia Bowl, played in the historic Cramton Bowl. It really conjures images of Pasadena on January 1, doesn’t it? Actually, Arkansas State liked it so much in 2017 that they’re coming back again. Go figure.

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

(19) Boise State (12 - 1) 30 vs. Washington (7 - 5) 27: This is an interesting game that matches Washington’s departing coach, Chris Petersen, against his former team that rose to prominence under his direction. I’m certain that story line will tend to overshadow the game itself. I look for Boise to overwhelm the Huskies, as they look to turn a chip on their shoulders into victory over a Power Five program.

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

(20) Appalachian State (12 - 1) 37 vs. UAB (9 - 4) 27: Appalachian State is one of the great stories in college football, but so is UAB. Following the 2014 season, UAB shut down the program for two seasons, only to re-emerge for the 2017 campaign. In their first year back, they won the Conference USA championship and played in the Bahamas Bowl. Since entering the FBS subdivision in 2015, Appalachian State has qualified for a bowl game every year, winning each time. They’ve also won the last four Sun Belt titles.

December 23

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

UCF (9 - 3) 34 vs. Marshall (8 - 4) 27: After a couple of years of undefeated play, UCF came back down to earth this season and is nowhere near the national championship discussion. At least they get to make an hour trip to Tampa for a bowl game. Will they be riding lawnmowers down I-4 to get to the game? I sure hope so.

December 24

SoFi Hawaii Bowl

Hawaii (9 - 5) 38 vs. BYU (7 - 5) 30: Hawaii is another team to get a home bowl game. There really isn’t a nicer place in the United States to spend Christmas, so I’m not sure if the Rainbows are all that upset. Between trips to the beach and gazing at bikini clad swimmers, BYU will try to squeeze in a football game. Focused? Probably not.

December 26

Walk On’s Independence Bowl

La. Tech (9 - 3) 30 vs. Miami (6 - 6) 27: The year started with debacle of a coaching change for Miami and could end with a devastating loss for the Hurricanes. I just don’t see Miami coming into this game with much motivation. The Bulldogs get to head about an hour west on I-20 for the game. This could get ugly and be another black mark on a dismal season for the ACC Coastal.

Quick Lane Bowl:

Pittsburgh (7 - 5) 29 vs. Eastern Michigan (6 - 6) 20: With two weeks left in the season, Pittsburgh stood at 7 - 3 and still had a legitimate shot at the ACC Coastal title. After getting shut out by Va. Tech and losing to a mediocre Boston College team, they now head north to Detroit instead of the other direction. Ouch!

December 27

Military Bowl Presented by Northrup Grumman

North Carolina (6 - 6) 34 vs. Temple (8 - 4) 17: What started as a promising season for UNC with the return of head coach Mack Brown and an opening win over South Carolina, fizzled with six one possession losses. The silver lining is that the Tar Heels get to go to Annapolis, Maryland to play a bowl game on the campus of the Naval Academy. Temple quietly went 8 - 4 and at times exhibited a strong defense, but at other times they were scorched.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Michigan State (6 - 6) 24 vs. Wake Forest (8 - 4) 27:

This is a very interesting game, with a disappointing Michigan State taking on an overachieving Wake Forest team. The Deacons got off to 7 - 1 start, but stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. My hope is that they play the game in Yankees uniforms.

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

(25) Oklahoma State (8 - 4) 27 vs. Texas A&M (7 - 5) 37: If this game looks familiar to long-time football fans, it’s because these two schools were members of the Big 12 from 1996 to 2012. Texas A&M had one of, if not the toughest schedule in the country. They played three number one teams and also lost to number 5 Georgia and top 15 Auburn. The interesting thing about this game is that despite its name, is played in an indoor stadium. Hmmm.

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

(22) USC (8 - 4) 27 vs. (16) Iowa (9 - 3) 23: I guess we can call this “Rose Bowl Light” with the game being played about 125 miles to the south of the “Grandaddy of them all”. USC coach Clay Helton’s job was rumored to be in jeopardy since last season, but it appears the window for the Trojans to have made a change has come and gone, especially since the early signing period for incoming players has already passed. I think USC has too much speed for the Hawkeyes.

Cheez-It Bowl

Air Force (10 -2) 34 vs. Washington State (6 - 6) 30: Air Force flew under the radar all season (see what I did there?) and Washington State seemed to fall apart after giving up a huge lead to UCLA. I’m not sure Cougars coach Mike Leach can get his team up for this one.

December 28

Camping World Bowl

(15) Notre Dame (10 -2) 27 vs. Iowa State (7 - 5) 21: I’m a bit surprised that Notre Dame fell to this bowl game. Nothing against the Camping World Bowl, but one year after making the playoffs the Irish only lose twice and can’t make a premier postseason classic. If Notre Dame comes to play, I don’t think Iowa State can stay with them.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

(10) Penn State (10 - 2) 34 vs.(17) Memphis (12 - 1) 24: This is a great lead-in game to the playoffs. Memphis completed a season-long battle to gain the Group of Five’s bid to a New Year’s Six game by defeating Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference’s championship game. Penn State had the misfortune of playing in the Big Ten East and recorded tough losses to Ohio State and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions should have too much on both sides of the ball for the upset minded Tigers.

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Play Station Fiesta Bowl

(2) Ohio State (13 - 0) 31 vs. (3) Clemson (13 - 0) 30: I’m doing these games in chronological order so the playoff clashes seemingly appear to be buried in the holiday bowl-fest. This is seemingly the most balanced and best final four we’ve seen since the inception of the format. Despite a couple of closer games late in the season, I’ve maintained that Ohio State is the top of a very talented heap of college teams. Although I believe Clemson is a great defending champion, my concern is that they just haven’t played anyone with close to the speed and depth possessed by Ohio State. Both teams are having to travel, so there’s no real advantage for either team on that front. This should be a terrific game, but ultimately I like the Buckeyes to prevail.

College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chik-Fil-A Peach Bowl

(1) LSU (13 - 0) 37 vs. (4) Oklahoma (12 - 1) 31: Both of these teams have explosive offenses and aggressive defenses. Near unanimous Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow leads LSU while former Alabama national champion Jalen Hurts quarterbacks Oklahoma. I love to watch the Sooners, but their inability to clearly defeat Baylor twice concerns me in light of LSU”s domination of the SEC this season. This will be a close game, but Burrow’s ability and the Tiger’s defense should be able to do enough to get to the finals.

December 30

SERVPRO First Responders Bowl

Western Kentucky (8 - 4) 38 vs. Western Michigan (7 - 5) 17: Both of these teams will have to travel “westerner” to Dallas to face each other. Neither team had a particularly stellar season, but I’ll take Western Kentucky in this one.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Mississippi State (6 - 6) 24 vs. Louisville (7 - 5) 38: It took a missed extra point by Ole Miss for Mississippi State to barely qualify for this bowl game. Meanwhile, Louisville was able to put together a decent season, albeit in a weak ACC. The Cardinals should fly in Nashville.

Red Box Bowl

California (7 - 5) 30 vs. Illinois (6 - 6) 23: In the underrated and deep PAc-12, Cal was able to forge a pretty good season. Similarly, Illinois emerged from the brutal Big Ten to get into only their second bowl game since 2011. There was some inconsistency for the Illini with a big win over Wisconsin, but later a lopsided loss to a weak Northwestern team.

Capital One Orange Bowl

(9) Florida (10 - 2) 37 vs. (24) Virginia (9 - 4) 20: I don’t see any way that Virginia can stay with Florida. The Cavaliers struggled to get to the ACC championship where they were trounced by Clemson. It’s a shame that Notre Dame didn’t get a shot at this game.

December 31

Belk Bowl

Virginia Tech (8 - 4) 29 vs. Kentucky (7 - 5) 27: Va. Tech flexed its defensive muscle down the stretch after a shaky start. In winning their last three games, Kentucky’s offense came to life. It should be an interesting final game for famed Va. Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Florida State (6 - 6) 24 vs. Arizona State (8 - 4) 27: I’m sure many people are surprised that Florida State, in a season where they fired head coach Willie Taggert, made it to a bowl game. Second-year head coach Herm Edwards has turned around the Arizona State program and I’m certain they will be prepared for the ‘Noles.

Auto Zone Liberty Bowl

(23) Navy (10 - 2) 28 vs. Kansas State (8 - 4) 24: Navy can be tough to play if you don’t see their style of offense on a regular basis. The Midshipmen are coming off a beat down of Army that completed a season during which their only losses were to top 20 teams Memphis and Notre Dame.

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Wyoming (7 - 5) 37 vs. Georgia State (7 - 5) 27: I really can’t admit to knowing much about these teams. Furthermore, I can’t admit to really caring, either.

Valero Alamo Bowl

(11) Utah (11 - 3) 30 vs. Texas (7 - 5) 21: Against Oregon, Utah looked like a racehorse struggling to get out of the starting gate, then gets pinned against the rail. They just never seemed to be able to get going. The same could be said for Texas’ entire season. If the Longhorns lose this game, their head coach Tom Herman will most likely begin the 2020 campaign as one of the first coaches on the hot seat.

New Years Day

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

(14) Michigan (9 - 3) vs. (13) Alabama (10 - 2): This is one of the most intriguing games of the bowl season. It’s hard to imagine either of these intense coaches not playing to win. For Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, he needs an impressive win to set himself up for a strong, perhaps job-saving 2020.

Outback Bowl

(18) Minnesota (10 - 2) 27 vs. (12) Auburn (9 - 3) 24: In another compelling Big Ten - SEC matchup, Auburn will be looking to build on their big victory over Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Minnesota is coming off a very successful, yet a bit of a disappointing season during which they couldn’t finish with a Big Ten West title. This is one of a handful of games I have circled on my schedule. I’ll pick with my heart here, pulling for Minnesota.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual

(6) Oregon (10 - 2) 31 vs. (8) Wisconsin (10 - 3) 27: If it wasn’t for a big stumble against Arizona, Oregon might be preparing for a playoff game against LSU. Oregon has the one thing that is kryptonite to Wisconsin’s defensive Superman: speed. The Ducks present real issues for the Badgers, who will be forced to rely on running back Jonathan Taylor to control the ball and keep Oregon’s high powered offense off the field.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

(5) Georgia (11 - 2) 24 vs. (7) Baylor (11 - 2) 27: Georgia’s loss to South Carolina is still a mystery to me. I was in the stands when South Carolina was dominated in the second half by Tennessee and just don’t understand how the Bulldogs let the Gamecocks get the better of them. Baylor’s only blemishes were against playoff participant Oklahoma. I don’t think Georgia has enough offense to win this one.

January 2

Ticket Smarter Birmingham Bowl

Boston College (6 - 6) 24 vs. (21) Cincinnati (10 - 3) 34: This game matches a barely bowl eligible Boston College from the worst Power Five conference against a good Cincinnati team from the best Group of Five conference. Hmmm...

Tax Slayer Gator Bowl

Indiana (8 - 4)28 vs. Tennessee (7 - 5) 31: Indiana had perhaps the most underrated seasons in college football. They posted eight wins for the first time since 1993 and for only the sixth time since 1945. They will be looking for their first bowl win in five tries since 1990. And all of this while playing in perhaps the toughest division in the Power Five. Since one of my daughters attends Tennessee and these picks are such guesses, I’ll go with the Vols.

January 3

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Ohio (6 - 6) 27 vs. Nevada (7 - 5) 38: Played on the blue turf of Boise State, this game definitely feels like a parting gift for the loser on a game show. In case you haven’t noticed, I have a distinct anti-MAC bias this bowl season.

January 4

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Southern Mississippi (7 - 5) 40 vs. Tulane (6 - 6) 34: This game is played in Fort Worth, which of course should be obvious by the name of the bowl. Will anyone even care about this game by the first weekend in January? Doubtful.

January 6

Lending Tree Bowl

Louisiana (10 - 3) 37 vs. Miam, OH (8 - 5) 34: Is it over yet? Mercifully, it is.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

TIGER WOODS LEADS AMERICANS TO ROYAL MELBOURNE IN PRESIDENT'S CUP MATCHES

2019-12-11T15:38:00.001-06:00

On paper, this week’s President’s Cup duel between the Americans and a squad of International golfers would appear to be a major mismatch. Beyond the Internationals having home course advantage at Royal Melbourne Golf Club in Australia, there aren’t many numbers working in their favor. Despite being without top ranked Brooks Koepka, the Americans still have an average Official World Golf Ranking of 12. 25. The Internationals only boast two golfers inside the top 20 and an average of slightly over 40. Ten of the Americans have better rankings than the best International player, number 18 Adam Scott. The lowest ranked U.S. player for captain Tiger Woods is number 23 Matt Kuchar, who is ranked higher than ten of the players who will tee it up for captain Ernie Els’ International team.

Of course, the matches aren’t played on paper, but instead on a golf course with grass, higher grass, sand and water. Even though there appears to be a huge discrepancy in the players’ rankings, all 24 are in the top 63 in the world. Looking at the randomness of match play tournaments gives some insight into how little disparity there is between number 4 (Dustin Johnson) and number 63 (Haotong Li). Perhaps the biggest disadvantage Els faces is the inexperience of his team. He has seven President’s Cup rookies and it will be a challenge for him to sprinkle them throughout the competition to ensure that his veterans have some significant contributions.

Eleven of the twelve Americans played in last week’s Hero Challenge, Tiger Woods’ charity event in the Bahamas. Only Dustin Johnson sat it out, nursing an injury in hopes of being 100% in Australia. The limited field tournament ended Saturday, after which Tiger and his team took off for Down Under. No International team members were included in the tournament, so if you’re looking for an advantage for the underdogs, jet lag might be one of them. The other major benefit for Ernie Els is the golf course. Many of the Internationals are familiar with the venue, given the closer proximity to the Australian and Asian players on the team.

In 1998, the first time this event was played outside the United States, the Internationals dominated what to that date was one of the best teams to ever be assembled in international team play. The Americans never contended and lost 20 1/2 - 11 1/2. Could we see a similar result this time? Anything is possible, but here are some thoughts about what will contribute to the final outcome.

Tiger Woods as playing captain: In November, Tiger picked himself to be part of his President’s Cup team, the first time since Hale Irwin in the inaugural playing of this event in 1994 that the U.S. has had a captain teeing it up. After his victory at the Zozo Championship in October, the first PGA Tour event held in Japan, he really had very little choice but to include himself on the squad. Woods will have plenty of help with the details as former captains Fred Couples and Steve Stricker will be joined by Zach Johnson as assistant captains. Look for the 82 time winner to play the four-ball matches (more popularly known as best-ball) and sit out the foursomes (alternate shot). All players will participate in the singles matches on the final day.

Different schedule than the Ryder Cup: I believe one reason the Americans have had more success in the President’s Cup than they have in the Ryder Cup is the schedule. The matches are played over the course of four days, instead of the three days in the Ryder Cup. There are also an additional two matches in the President’s Cup, which means team depth comes more into play as it’s more difficult to hide or sit players that aren’t playing well.

Royal Melbourne Golf Club: The green complexes are big and the surfaces are undulating, making it important to place approach shots on the correct side of the hole. If the Internationals really do have a home course advantage, this is where it will be manifested. In addition, captain Ernie Els and his staff have control of the course setup, so he should be able to give his team a better chance at victory.

The players: There is little doubt that the Americans have a much better, deeper and more experienced team. Ernie Els will need to lean on his veterans. If the first round pairings are any indication, he will be doing just that. Adam Scott, Marc Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Hadwin will all be in action. Each of them are paired with a rookie member of the team. If the Internationals can keep it close the first couple of days, look for the Americans to start to feel the pressure. If not, this will be a runaway win for the United States.

Jet Lag: Today’s professional golfers are very familiar with international play and travel, but leaving on a Saturday evening and playing at a high level four days later can be a challenge. Last year, I believe fatigue played a big role in the American’s poor showing in Ireland during the Ryder Cup. Coming on the heels of a brutal FedEx playoff push with no, for which many of the Europeans were not qualified, was a huge factor. Perhaps the less congested fall schedule will find a more rested American team in Australia, but it could still be something that gives an overwhelmed International team a way to close the gap.

Conclusion: I look for the Americans to jump out to an early lead and hold on for the duration of the week. Despite some mitigating factors I’ve mentioned, the U.S. is just too strong and experienced for the Internationals. Tiger will surely have his team well-prepared and assuredly matched up to get the most out of their abilities.

Prediction: U.S. 18 International 12

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK SEVEN PREDICTIONS

2019-10-11T18:47:00.000-05:00

Last Week:

Straight Up: 18 - 8 69.2%

ATS: 18- 8 69.2%

Overall:

Straight Up: 109 - 31 77.8%

ATS: 71 - 69 50.7%

Thursday:

Syracuse (3 - 2) (0 - 1) 24 @ NC State (3 - 2) (0 - 1) (4.5) 30: The ACC is difficult to predict because almost all of the teams are inconsistent, mediocre or just plain bad. These two teams qualify as the first two. I’ll take NC State, but only because they’re at home.

Friday:

(20) Virginia (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 31 @ Miami (2 - 3) (0 - 2) (-2.0) 23: Miami gets their second team from the Commonwealth of Virginia at home in as many weeks. The ‘Canes should have completed the big comeback against Virginia Tech, but fell just short. They’ll need at least as good an effort this week to stay on the field with the Cavs.

Colorado (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 17 @ (13) Oregon (4 - 1) (2 - 0) (-21.0) 37: Suddenly, Oregon is clearly the class of the Pac-12 North. Colorado still has a shot at the South, but will need a big effort in Eugene to keep their division title hopes alive.

Saturday:

South Carolina (2 - 3) (1 - 2) 13 @ Georgia (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-24.5) 41: Georgia is easing into the meat of their schedule against a decent South Carolina team, but the Gamecocks can’t hang with the Bulldogs. South Carolina’s rushing defense is decent, but it’s not elite enough to contain Georgia’s 250 yards/game attack.

(6) Oklahoma (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-10.5) 38 vs. (11) Texas (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 20 (Dallas, TX): Texas took down Oklahoma a year ago, but that was before the Sooners corralled Jalen Hurts at QB and beefed up their defense. This is one of the most intense rivalries in college football, so sometimes the records don’t matter. Oklahoma leads the nation in total yards and just has too much for almost everyone on their schedule, including Texas.

(16) Michigan (4 - 1) (2 - 1) (-19.0) 30 @ Illinois (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 6: Michigan in still struggling on offense against good defenses, but Illinois doesn’t fall into that category.

(23) Memphis (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-4.0) 27 @ Temple (4 - 1) 24: Memphis has quietly moved into contention for the Group of Five New Year’s Day bowl bid with a balanced offensive attack. Temple surprised Maryland earlier in the season and have a top 20 defense. I’ll stay with Memphis to utilize their balance to win a close one in Philadelphia.

Maryland (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-6.5)38 @ Purdue (1 - 4) (0 - 2) 17: Purdue has struggled mightily this season while Maryland has been wildly inconsistent. The Boilermakers are outside of the top 100 in both offense and defense, making it difficult for me to see Purdue stopping Maryland or outscoring them.

Mississippi State (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-6.5) 34 @ Tennessee (1 - 4) (0 -2) 24: Tennessee is having a nightmare of a season and it’s not likely to get any better this week. The Vols are giving up over 165 yards a game and Mississippi State is rushing for over 200 yards a game. That’s not a good matchup for Tennessee.

Rutgers (1 - 4) (0 - 3) 6 @ Indiana (3 -2)(0 -2) (-28.0) 40: The Big 10 is a deep league, but the depth finder stops before it gets to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have lost 15 of their last 16 games. It will be 16 of 17 after this weekend.

Ga. Tech (1 - 4) (0 - 2) 17 @ Duke (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-17.0) 38: Duke came back down to earth last week against Pittsburgh after a big win at Va. Tech. Georgia Tech won’t pose the same kind of threat and I look for Duke to regain their offensive firepower.

(1) Alabama (5 - 0) (2 - 0)(-16.5) 31 @ (24) Texas A&M (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 13: Before the season started, I had this one identified as a game in which Alabama would be challenged. But the Aggies haven’t shown enough offense against Power Five teams for me to think they can be considered a threat against the Tide. Alabama is a bit vulnerable against run, but Texas A&M is only ranked 97th in rushing offense.

Florida State (3 - 2) (2 - 1) 20 @ (2) Clemson (5 - 0) (3 - 0) (-27.5) 31: It wasn’t that long ago that this was one of the premier games of the season, with the winner getting the upper hand not just in the ACC, but nationally. Even though Florida State is showing some improvement with wins over Louisville and NC State, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney had a bye week to correct any issues that resulted in a near loss to UNC in their last game. I like Clemson to win, but not cover.

Michigan State (4 - 2) (2 - 1) 10 @ (8) Wisconsin (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-10.0) 24: With the way Wisconsin has been playing defense, it’s difficult for me to see how a weak offensive Michigan State team can score enough points to top the Badgers.

Washington State (3 - 2) (1 - 2) 24 @ (18) Arizona State (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-2.5) 28: I’ve been on the Sun Devil bandwagon all season and Washington State just got rid of their defensive coordinator. I’ll stick with Arizona State to take advantage of the Cougars’ disarray.

Texas Tech (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 24 @ (22) Baylor (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-9.0) 34: Baylor is one of the secrets of this season and they’re coming off a big road win against Kansas State. The Bears are in the top 30 in the FBS in both offense and defense and should be able to hold off Texas Tech.

Iowa State (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-10.5) 37 @ West Va. (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 24: Iowa State has scored 63% of its points in just 40% of its games, so it’s difficult to predict which offense will show up in Morgantown. West Virginia is ranked 61st in total defense, so this is probably a good chance for the Cyclones to build on their 49 - 24 drubbing of TCU last week.

Rhode Island (1 - 4) 14@ Va. Tech (3 - 2) (-25.5) 41: The Hokies withstood a big comeback by Miami to record their first ACC win of the season and now face a bad FCS team. They should be able to build some much needed confidence at home.

Ole Miss (3 - 3) (2 - 1) 21 @ Missouri (4 - 1) (1 - 0) (-11.0) 34: Missouri has quietly been on a roll since an opening loss to a Wyoming team that still has only one loss. I doubt they can hang with Georgia and Florida in the SEC East, but they should be able to handle the Rebels.

USC (3 - 2) 24 @ (9) Notre Dame (4 - 1) (-11.0) 30: I’ve liked USC’s speed all season, but Notre Dame is playing well on both sides of the ball. This is a big rivalry game and I’ll take the Irish to prevail and stay in the playoff conversation.

(10) Penn State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-4.5) 24 @ (17) Iowa (4 - 1) (1 - 1) 17: Penn State is fourth in total defense and 11th in total offense while Iowa is fifth in defense, but barely in the top 60 in offense. This is likely to be a low scoring affair, but Penn State has more firepower and I like them to stay in the Big 10 East race.

Louisville (3 - 2) (1 - 1) 27 @ Wake Forest (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-7.0) 31: These defenses are virtually statistically identical, but Wake Forest is top ten in total offense so I give them the edge in what should be a close and entertaining game.

Nebraska (4 - 2) (2 - 1) 31 @ Minnesota (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-7.5) 29: Minnesota is another one of those undefeated Power Five teams like Baylor and Wake Forest that can make a statement with a big win as they get into the meat of their conference schedules. They haven’t been dominant and will take a step up in class against Nebraska. I like the ‘Huskers to get their offense rolling in a mild upset.

Arkansas (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 27 @ Kentucky (2 - 3) (0 - 3) (-7.0) 24: Arkansas finally made a nice showing against Texas A&M and I look for them to have a good chance to pick up a road conference win. Kentucky played Florida close, but hasn’t been able to duplicate that effort the last couple of games.

(7) Florida (6 - 0) (3 - 0) 27 @ (5) LSU (5 - 0) (1 - 0) (-13.5) 30: Florida has found a way to win close games and they’ll once again need to be opportunistic to be able to slow down the second ranked passing defense in the country. That’s not unreasonable, as the Gators are giving up less than 200 yards a game through the air. The bigger problem for Florida is if they end up in a shootout, as their offense isn’t explosive enough to stay with LSU.

(15) Utah (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-14.0) 31 @ Oregon State (2 - 3) (1 - 1) 13: Oregon State is very dangerous offensively, but with the exception of USC, Utah’s 14th rated defense has been able to hold some good offenses in check. In this case, it isn’t a great matchup for Oregon State, as they’re balance offense relies on a strong running game. Utah is giving up less than 60 yards a game on the ground.

Hawaii (4 - 1) (1 - 0) 21@ (14) Boise State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-12.5) 30: These two teams are very close offensively, although Hawaii scores about five points more per game. The Rainbow Warriors have had a week off to prepare for the frontrunner in the New Year’s Day Six sweepstakes. The difference is the Boise State defense, which should be able to contain Hawaii.

Washington (4 - 2) (1 - 2) (-9.5)30 @ Arizona (4 - 1) (3 - 0) 37: I’ve been a big Arizona fan all season and they haven’t lost since an opening upset at the hands of Hawaii in the islands. Washington has been inconsistent and Arizona is averaging over 500 yards a game, especially when quarterback sensation Khalil Tate is on the field.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK SIX PREDICTIONS

2019-10-05T09:08:00.000-05:00

I bounced back nicely from a dismal week 4 to go 23 - 4 in week 5. This week there are some tight games as conference play gets into full swing. The headliner has number 7 Auburn heading into the Swamp to take on 10th ranked Florida. We also have number 19 Michigan, trying to stay alive in the Big 10 East , hosting number 14 Iowa. Finally, we have 4th ranked Ohio State taking trying to stay hot against number 25 Michigan State.

Straight-up 23 - 4 85.2%

ATS 10 - 17 37.0%

Overall

Straight-up 91 - 23 79.8%

ATS 53 - 61 46.5%

Friday:

(18) UCF (4 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 31 @ Cincinnati (3 - 1) (0 - 0) 20: After a hiccup against Pittsburgh, UCF seems to be back on track. Ohio State overwhelmed Cincinnati earlier in the season and it’s likely UCF can inflict similar offensive damage on the Bearcats. The line here is rather slim but that’s probably because of UCF’s loss on the road. It could also be that Vegas knows something we don’t.

Saturday:

Utah State (3 - 1) 21 @ (5) LSU (4 - 0) (-26.0) 48: LSU’s offense is vastly improved over the past several years, but the defense isn’t. Utah State poses a reasonable challenge if the Tigers overlook them by peaking ahead to a big game with Florida next week.

(6) Oklahoma (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-35.0) 54 @ Kansas (2 - 3) (0 - 2) 10: Kansas had a brief glimmer of hope in their win against Boston College, but they haven’t been able to sustain it against Big 12 opposition. TCU put up 51 on the Jayhawks, so it’s possible Oklahoma could do some more serious damage.

Kent State (2 - 2) 6 @ (8) Wisconsin (4 - 0) (-37.0) 48: Wisconsin struggled last week against Northwestern after overwhelming its first three opponents. I believe the Badgers will return to form against overmatched Kent State.

Purdue (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 10 @ (12) Penn State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-27.5) 41: Penn State is quietly operating under the radar, below Ohio State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten. They should easily be able to handle a Purdue team struggling to maintain competitiveness in the conference.

(14) Iowa (4 - 0) (1 - 0) 20 @ (19) Michigan (3 - 1) (1 - 1) (-5.0) 27: This is one of the most compelling games of the weekend. Michigan already has a lopsided loss to Wisconsin and can’t afford another one if they want to stay in the race for a Big Ten title. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is also on the hotseat and desperately needs this win. I think he’ll get it.

(21) Oklahoma State (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-9.5) 38 @ Texas Tech (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 24: The only blemish on Oklahoma State’s record is a six point loss at Texas. The Cowboys are still in the Big !2 regular season race that might not be decided until the final weekend when they take on Oklahoma. A win in Lubbock is essential if they want to keep those hopes alive.

Maryland (2 - 2) (0 - 1)(-12.5) 41 @ Rutgers (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 20: After an impressive start to the season, Maryland is starting to look like, well, Maryland. A loss to Temple and a drubbing at home by Penn State have brought the Terps down to earth. Fortunately for them, they are playing one of the most hapless programs in the Power Five.

TCU (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 28 @ Iowa State (2 - 2) (0 -1) (-3.5) 24: Despite a surprising loss to SMU, TCU is still impressive on both sides of the ball. Notably, SMU is still undefeated and averaging 44 points a game. Iowa State has been a bit disappointing this season and I’m a bit baffled at them being a favorite in this game.

(7) Auburn (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-3.0) 30 @ (10) Florida (5 - 0) (2 - 0) 24: This is the premier game of the week with serious conference and national implications. I feel that Florida is overrated and Auburn is just the opposite. Florida’s signature win is a close one over a mediocre Miami team to start the season. Meanwhile, Auburn was defeating what we now know is a very good Oregon squad. Enough said.

Bowling Green (1 - 3) 9 @ (9) Notre Dame (3 - 1) (-45.5) 56: Notre Dame rebounded from a loss to Georgia by dominating Virginia last week. The only drama this week will be how long it takes for Notre Dame to get 40 points.

(11) Texas (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-11.5) 30 @ West Virginia (3 - 1)(1 - 0) 21: West Virginia has performed better than expected and are always a tough out at home. Texas will need to focus on the Mountaineers before thinking about their annual Red River Rivalry game next week or else they could end up in a tough position in the Big 12 race.

Va. Tech (2 - 2) (0 - 2) 24 @ Miami (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (-13.5) 34: The ACC, with the exception of Clemson, is experiencing a down season. At Miami, first year head coach Manny Diaz is realizing why Mark Richt decided to retire. Virginia Tech top man Justin Fuentes finds himself on the hot seat after a 44 - 10 drubbing at the hands of Duke. My prediction is that the Duke loss will look a lot better at the end of the season, but the Hokies still need to get things figured out in a hurry.

Baylor (4 - 0) (1 - 0) 27 @ Kansas State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-2.0) 24: Baylor is quietly putting together a solid season that includes last week’s close win over Iowa State. Kansas State’s resume is probably better, but they looked lackluster against Oklahoma State last week. I just don’t have a good feeling about the home team in this one.

Illinois (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 17 @ Minnesota (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.0) 34: Minnesota is another one of those surprise teams in the Power Five and should be able to take care of Illinois, a solid team but unfortunately not up to the top teams in the Big 10.

North Carolina (2 - 3) (1 - 1) (-10.5) 37 @ Ga. Tech (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 24: North Carolina is coming off a near monumental upset of top-ranked Clemson and will need to shake that off against the weakest team in the ACC. I don’t expect the Yellow Jackets to be able to get their first conference win.

Northwestern (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 21 @ Nebraska (3 - 2) (1 - 1) (-8.0) 27: As good as Northwestern looked against Wisconsin and as badly as Nebraska played against Ohio State last week, I still believe the ‘Huskers can prevail on Saturday. Northwestern’s offense is anemic and inconsistent while Nebraska has the potential to put up some points.

Arizona (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 30 @ Colorado (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 27: I’ve been on the Arizona bandwagon this season and I don’t see any reason to get off of it now. I know Colorado has attracted some attention, but I like what head coach Kevin Sumlin is doing in Tucson, especially on defense as the season progresses. The Wildcats’ defense will need to play well to contain the Buffaloes.

(3) Georgia (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-24.5) 40 @ Tennessee (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 21: Georgia is continuing its run through a very difficult schedule, but this game should be a breather if Tennessee doesn’t miraculously transform into an SEC East contender. The Vols are decent against the run, giving up a little less than 150 yards a game and about 3.7 yards per carry. That’s still vulnerable enough to give Georgia a chance to run up big numbers on the ground.

(25) Michigan State (4 - 1) (2 - 0) 13 @ (4) Ohio State (5 - 0) (2 - 0) (-20.5) 37: Ohio State has been overwhelming its opponents since the beginning of the season. If they’re going to have a rough home game, this could be it, but until they appear to be challenged I’ll stay with the Buckeyes.

Vanderbilt (1 - 3) (0 - 2) 20 @ Ole Miss (2 - 3) (1 - 1) (-7.0) 31: Ole Miss only has a couple of conference games they have a good chance of winning, and this is one of them.

California (4 - 1) (1 - 1) 10 @ (13) Oregon (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-17.5) 30: Cal was ranked before last week despite scoring no more than 28 points in a game. Oregon can score that many in a quarter, so I’ll go with the Ducks to overwhelm Cal offensively.

Pittsburgh (3 - 2) (0 - 1) 24 @ Duke (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-4.5) 38: Despite not having much of a home field advantage, Duke should be able to score on Pitt. The only team to put a loss on the Blue Devils has been Alabama, so I’m going to stay with Duke.

Oregon State (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 31 @ UCLA (1 - 4) (1 - 1) (-6.0) 34: UCLA had a dream fourth quarter against Washington State a couple of weeks ago, then gave Arizona a tough game in their last game. Chip Kelly has his team moving in the right direction and I like them to outscore the Beavers in a tough contest at home in the Rose Bowl.

(15) Washington (4 - 1) (1 - 1) (-14.5) 27 @ Stanford (2 - 3) (1 - 2) 17: Earlier in the season, this was expected to be a battle for the Pac-12 North title. Stanford has had injuries at quarterback and their defense just hasn’t been as good as we’ve seen in recent seasons. Washington has come back well from a close loss to Cal and they should continue to roll against the Cardinal.

(16) Boise State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.5) 41 @ UNLV (1 - 3) (0 - 1) 21: Boise State has positioned themselves to contend for the New Year’s Day bid for the Group of Five. They have a couple of tough games left, but this isn’t one of them. UNLV gives up a lot of points and Boise should feast on a weak defense today.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FIVE PREDICTIONS

2019-09-28T11:11:00.002-05:00

Last Week:

Straight-up: 18 - 10 64.2%

ATS: 16 - 12 57.1%

Overall:

Straight-up: 68 - 19 78.2%

ATS: 43 - 44 49.4%

Friday:

Duke (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 27 @ Virginia Tech (2 - 1) (0 - 1) (-2.5) 31: It looks like everyone in the ACC Coastal will be chasing Virginia for the division title. Va. Tech already has an early loss to Boston College and can’t afford another one if they’re going to contend. Both of these teams have a couple of wins over lesser competition, with Duke’s being a little more impressive. I still like the Hokies to put a game together with a young team.

(12) Penn State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 27 @ Maryland (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 21: These two teams looked impressive early but stumbled a bit before an off week. Penn State struggled in a tough win over Pittsburgh, while Maryland stubbed their toe in a loss to Temple. I believe Penn State just has too much for Maryland on both sides of the ball, but this could be a tight one.

Arizona State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 27 @ (15) California (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-5.0) 24: The Pac-12 is emerging as a pretty tough and deep conference. Cal’s upset win over Washington followed by a win at Ole Miss has the Bears in lofty territory. Arizona State got surprised by a vastly improved Colorado team last week, but I like what Herm Edwards is doing in the desert and think we might get an upset in the bay area tonight.

Saturday:

Texas Tech (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 17 @ (6) Oklahoma (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-27.0) 38: I believe Oklahoma has started the season as impressively as any team in the nation. Despite being improved, I don’t think Texas Tech can stay with the Sooners, especially in Norman.

Northwestern (1 - 2) (0 - 1)10 @ (8) Wisconsin (3 - 0) (1 - 0) (-24.0) 37: Wisconsin is in the same small group as Oklahoma. Northwestern hasn’t been impressive, but if they can slow down Jonathan Taylor perhaps they can keep this one close. That’s a big if that I just don’t think will happen.

Middle Tennessee (1 - 2) 10 @ (14) Iowa (3 - 0) (-24.5) 38: This shouldn’t be much of a problem for Iowa.

Rutgers (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 17 @ (20) Michigan (2 - 1) (0 - 1) (-27.5) 34: Michigan was totally overmatched at Wisconsin last week, putting head coach Jim Harbaugh squarely on the hot seat. The Wolverines should be able to take care of Rutgers, but after a couple of subpar performances, Michigan needs to find some offense if they are to give their faithful any hope for the rest of the season.

(23) Texas A&M (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (-23.5) 37 vs. Arkansas (2 - 2) (0 - 1) (Arlington, Texas) 16 : Arkansas has a deceptively decent record after getting scorched by a less than mediocre San Jose State team last week. Arkansas needs to make some quick improvements on defense, and I just don’t see it happening. A&M has lost to two top seven teams and should be able to feel better around 3:00 pm Saturday.

Kansas (2 - 2) (0 - 1) 20@ TCU (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-15.5) 27: Kansas has shown some improvement under new head coach Les Miles and TCU looks vulnerable after a loss to SMU last week. But TCU averages more yards on offense and gives up less on defense than Kansas, so I’ll stay with the Horned Frogs in a close game.

(1) Clemson (4 - 0) (2 - 0) (-26.5) 42 @ North Carolina (2 - 2) (1 - 0) 13: North Carolina showed some promise in the first two games under returning head coach Mack Brown. But the last two weeks have been disappointing with losses to Wake Forest and Appalachian State. With Clemson coming to town, the Tar Heels will have to take a huge step up in their quality of play.

Ole Miss (2 - 2) (1 - 0) 10 @ (2) Alabama (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-30.5) 38: Alabama hasn’t really played any big boy football teams yet, and this one barely qualifies. But it’s another conference game and will ease the Tide into the meat of their schedule. I don’t think Ole Miss can stay with Alabama.

(18) Virginia (4 - 0) 17 @ (10) Notre Dame (2 - 1) (-12.0) 27: This is Virginia’s big chance to make a statement with what is their best team of the last fifteen seasons. Notre Dame is coming off a tough loss to Georgia and if they can recover, they should win since they have the better team. Virginia’s offense has been a bit sluggish, so I look for the Irish to have a big defensive game.

(21) USC (3 - 1) (2 - 0) 27 @ (17) Washington (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (9.5) 24: USC is down to its third quarterback, but he was up to the task on the road at Utah last week. It will take another great effort against the Huskies and I’ll stay on the Trojan bandwagon. Their speed is the difference.

Indiana (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 13 @ (25) Michigan State (3 - 1) (1 - 0) (-14.5) 31: After a controversial loss to Arizona State, Michigan State appears to have righted the ship. Indiana is solid but doesn’t have enough to beat the Spartans on the road.

Minnesota (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-1.5) 30@ Purdue (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 24: Minnesota hasn’t played much of a schedule so far, but they’ve shown consistent improvement under third year head coach PJ Fleck. I’ll take Minnesota to quietly go 4 - 0.

Towson (3 - 1) 20 @ (9) Florida (4 - 0) (-37.5) 41: Towson is a high level FCS program, so Florida needs to make sure they don’t sleep on the Tigers. I have a feeling that the Gators might be a bit surprised in this one.

Georgia Tech (1 - 2) 21 @ Temple (2 - 1) (-9.5) 34: Georgia Tech is having a tough time under first year head coach Geoff Collins. It won’t get much easier against a Temple team that took out a hot Maryland team.

Wake Forest (4 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 30 @ Boston College (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 21: Wake is another surprising team that has been mostly under the radar. The lone blemish on Boston College’s resume is a fourth quarter collapse against Kansas. I like Wake’s consistency and toughness on defense.

Mississippi State (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 27 @ (7) Auburn (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-11.0) 30: Auburn’s season-opening win over Oregon is looking better and they’re drubbing of Texas A&M made some believers in this team. Mississippi State beat a pretty good Kentucky team last week, so this one might be closer than the line indicates.

UConn (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 10 @(22) UCF (3 - 1) (0 - 0) (-43.5) 56: UCF’s last second loss at Pittsburgh took them out of the national championship equation, but they’re still in the hunt for the AAC title and the Group of Five New Year’s Day bowl bid. UConn is barely competitive n FBS, so I’ll go with the Golden Knights to light up the scoreboard at home today.

(24) Kansas State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) 24 @ Oklahoma State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-5.0) 27: This is a pretty even game with a stark contrast in styles. Kansas State has a stifling defense and Oklahoma State has an explosive offense. I’ll flip a coin and go with the home team in a tight game.

Stanford (1 - 3) (0 - 2) (-4.0) 30 @ Oregon State (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 31: Stanford has been a big disappointment this season and they’ll be without their starting quarterback again on the road. This is a tough pick, but I’ll take the slight upset for the Beavers.

(5) Ohio State (4 - 0) (1 - 0) (-18.0) 37 @ Nebraska (3 - 1) (1 - 0) 21: As much as I like Nebraska, they just haven’t played well this year and Ohio State hasn’t missed a beat under new head coach Ryan Day. Last year, the ‘Huskers almost pulled the upset at Ohio State, but if they don’t clean up the mistakes it won’t be possible today in Lincoln.

NC State (3 - 1) (0 - 0) 27 @ Florida State (2 - 2) ( 1- 1) (-6.5) 30: I said it last week and I’ll repeat it now: Florida State seems to have righted the ship recently. As much as I like NC State, the ‘Noles are moving in the right direction.

Kentucky (2 - 2)(0 -2) 24 @ South Carolina (1 - 3) (0 - 2) (-2.5) 27: Another close pick, with both teams trying to get on the board in the SEC. I’ve been well below par in SEC games, so I’ll flip a coin and go with the home team here.

Washington State (3 - 1) (0 - 1) 34 @ (19) Utah (3 - 1) (0 - 1) (-6.5) 30: Both of these squads are coming off disappointing losses. Washington State lost the wildest game I’ve ever seen, squandering a 49 - 17 third quarter lead in a 67 - 63 loss to UCLA. If I hadn’t watched it, I wouldn’t believe it. Utah couldn’t contain USC, so I’m taking Washington State to race past the Utes.

UCLA (1 - 3) (1 - 0) 27 @ Arizona (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-8.0) 38: UCLA was Cinderella last week at Washington State, but it’s going to turn midnight in Tuscon. The Bruins’ defense is just pathetic and I think Arizona will take advantage of it.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK FOUR PREDICTIONS

2019-09-19T19:24:00.002-05:00

After a decent week two, I rebounded this past weekend, going 26 - 4 for almost 87%. I broke even against the spread, which I hope is a trend in the right direction. There are a lot of compelling games this week as conference play begins in earnest, especially in those conferences that play nine league games.

Last week:

Straight-up 26 - 4 86.7%

ATS 15 - 15 50.0%

Overall:

Straight-up 50 - 9 84.7%

ATS 27 - 32 45.7%

Thursday:

Houston (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 30 @ Tulane (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 27: Houston has been through a difficult season-opening stretch. They were competitive against a terrific Oklahoma team and challenged a tough Washington State squad to the end in a seven-point loss. Tulane was able to hold Auburn to 24 points, but could only manage six points in the loss. I like Houston to break through.

(10) Utah (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-4.0) 37 @ USC (2 - 1) (1 - 0) 38: A week ago, this was shaping up as an early-season battle for supremacy in the Pac-12 South. But then USC stumbled against BYU and exposed the weaknesses in their true freshman quarterback. Utah’s defense, one of the best in the country, may do more of the same unless the Trojans make some adjustments in practice this week. But if this ends up in a track meet, my money is on USC.

Air Force (2 - 0) (0 - 0) 28 @ (20) Boise State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-8.5) 24: Boise State has a couple of close wins against FBS teams while Air Force got a big victory over Pac-12 Colorado. I seem to be on a Friday night upset jag, so why not go for another one?

Southern Mississippi (2 - 1) 14 @ (2) Alabama (3 - 0) (-38.5) 56: It looks like it will be another few weeks before Alabama gets a real test, traveling to Texas A&M on October 12. Southern Miss gave up 38 against Mississippi State and 42 to Troy. Alabama will probably put up a bunch. if they want to.

(4) LSU (3 - 0) (0 - 0)(-23.0) 42 @ Vanderbilt (0- 2) (0 - 1) 17: This is potentially a great LSU team, and potentially a not so great Vanderbilt one. I’m not looking for an upset here.

Tennessee (1 - 2) (0 - 0) 14 @ Florida (3 - 0) (1 - 0) (-14.0) 30: Florida eked out an improbable comeback win against Kentucky last week, but shouldn’t need the theatrics this time. Tennessee is a long way from getting competitive in the SEC and this trip to the Swamp won’t be pleasant.

(11) Michigan (2 - 0) (0 - 0) 20 @ (13) Wisconsin (2 - 0) (0 - 0) (-3.5) 31: This is one of the premier games of the weekend. Both of these teams had the week off, Michigan to digest their near disaster against Army and Wisconsin to bask in a 61 - 0 thrashing of Central Michigan. Wisconsin is a slight favorite.

(23) California (3 - 0) 23 @ Ole Miss (2 - 1) (-3.5) 20: Kansas State ventured into the state of Mississippi last week and came away with a victory over Mississippi State, a game I correctly predicted. Now a Pac-12 team travels to Oxford with hopes of a similar result. I believe they’ll pull it off.

Boston College (2 - 1) (-8.0) 31 @ Rutgers (1 - 1) 21: Boston College was looking fairly impressive through two and a half games, then Kansas rang up 28 consecutive points and handed the Eagles their first loss. Rutgers isn’t great, but it might be tough for BC to recover on the road against a team that is coming off an open week after a 31 - 0 loss to Iowa.

Michigan State (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-9.0) 20 @ Northwestern (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 10: Michigan State is coming off a disappointing loss to Arizona State, so I look for them to shut down Northwestern in a defensive battle.

Miami, OH (1 - 2) 9 @ (6) Ohio State (3 - 0) (-39.5) 51: I’m not even sure why I’m bothering to comment on this one.

(8) Auburn (3 - 0) (0 - 0)21 @ (17) Texas A&M (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-4.0) 27: Before the season started I thought this would be the big test for Texas A&M, and I’m still convinced of that. Auburn has been inconsistent on offense which could be a problem as they head into Kyle Field. I look for the Aggies’ defense to hold Auburn down and their offense to put plenty of points on the board.

(15) UCF (3 - 0)(-12.5) 27 @ Pittsburgh (1 - 2) 20: Pittsburgh is always tough at home and is coming off a pretty good performance in a 17 - 10 loss at Penn State. UCF is on a mission to try to crash the college football playoffs and a loss to Pitt would spoil any chances they have.

(22) Washington (2 - 1) (-6.0) 30 @ BYU (2 - 1) 21: BYU has two overtime wins, but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull off another one against a refocused Washington team. Even though Washington lost to Cal, that loss may look much better by the end of the season.

SMU (3 - 0) 14 @ (25) TCU (2 - 0) (9.0) 27: SMU is improved, but TCU’s defense is strong as usual. SMU will be moving up in class after three Group of Five victories. Even though I have TCU covering here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see SMU give them a battle in this Dallas Metroplex rivalry.

(18) Oregon (2 - 1)(0 - 0) (-10.0) 28 @ Stanford (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 20: Stanford has been disappointing since an opening week victory over Northwestern. Oregon just has too much offense for the Cardinal.

Old Dominion (1 - 1) 14 @ (21) Virginia (3 - 0) (-30.5) 42: Old Dominion gave Virginia Tech a tough game earlier in the season, but right now Virginia is playing at a higher level.

Charlotte (2 - 1) 6 @ (1) Clemson (3 - 0) (-41.5) 48: The bus ride home will seem a lot longer than a couple of hours for Charlotte after taking on Clemson in Death Valley.

Oklahoma State (3 - 0)(0 - 0)27@ (12) Texas (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 31: There are a lot of people jumping on the Oklahoma State bandwagon, but I like Texas despite the loss to LSU. It’ll be close, but the Longhorns should prevail at home.

(7) Notre Dame (2 - 0) 24 @ (3) Georgia (3 - 0) (-13.5) 34: This just isn’t a good matchup for the Irish. They’re vulnerable against the run and the Bulldogs are very effective on the ground. Still, it’s great to see these two teams playing this brief home and home series. The SEC needs all the non-conference Power Five wins they can get.

Colorado (2 - 1) (0 - 0)14 @ (24) Arizona State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-7.5) 27: Arizona head coach Herm Edwards has done a great job in resurrecting the Sun Devil program. Colorado is improved, but Arizona State’s defense is tough.

UCLA (0 -3) (0 - 0) 21 @ (19) Washington State (3 - 0) (0 - 0) (-18.5) 41: I have no idea what’s happening at UCLA, and from the looks of things, neither does head coach Chip Kelly. They’re terrible against the pass and Washington State should light up the scoreboard today.

Louisville (2 - 1)(0 - 0) 24@ Florida State (1 - 2) (0 - 1) (-6.5) 30: It’s hard to believe that it wasn’t that long ago this game was meaningful on the national level. Not so much anymore. Florida State showed some signs of life at Virginia last week, so I’m going to give the ‘Noles some love at home.

West Virginia (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-5.0) 27@ Kansas (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 30: Both of these teams surprised me last week, so this is a tough one for me. I like what Les Miles has already done for the Jayhawks and I believe they’ll be pretty pumped up at home. I’m smelling upset.

Kentucky (2 - 1) (0 - 1) 27 @ Mississippi State (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 24: I’m still not sure why Mississippi State is getting so much love. I think Kentucky is really good and the home team wasn’t impressive against Kansas State last week. I’m going with another road dog, or in this case a road cat, as in Wildcat.

San Jose State (1 - 1) 17@ Arkansas (2 - 1) (-20.5) 41: Arkansas appears to have found an answer at quarterback, finally benching SMU transfer Ben Hicks in favor of Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel. The Hog faithful have been waiting for over a season for head coach Chad Morris to show some offensive firepower and the 55 points against Colorado State is a step in the right direction.

South Carolina (1 - 2) (0 - 1) 20 @ Missouri (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-9.5) 31: Missouri had an opening hiccup against Wyoming but has rebounded nicely. South Carolina had a tough game against Alabama last week and teams don’t generally fare well following a game against the Crimson Tide.

Nebraska (2 - 1) (0 - 0) (-7.0) 34 @ Illinois (2 - 1) (0 - 0) 24: Nebraska let one get away a couple of weeks at Colorado, but should be able to handle an Illinois team that is coming off a loss to Eastern Michigan, one of the bottom 30 teams in the FBS. The ‘Huskers should be able to put up some points on the Illini.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK THREE PREDICTIONS

2019-09-14T10:26:00.001-05:00

Last Week:

Straight-up 24 - 5 82.7%

Against the Spread 12 - 17 41.3%

Not a bad week for the straight picks, but not so great against the spread. Of course, that’s only significant if you’re betting, which currently I am not. There are no ranked team matchups this week but there are some other interesting games on the slate.

Friday (from an earlier post):

(20) Washington State (2 - 0) (-8.5) 38 @ Houston (1 - 1) 28: Houston’s early season schedule was an ambitious bid to bring some increased credibility to the Group of Five teams and conferences. Their first attempt was at Oklahoma and were clearly outclassed, although the Cougars played valiantly in defeat. Washington State has put up 117 points against weak competition, but their strength doesn’t bode well for Houston.

Saturday:

Arkansas State ((1 - 1) 20 @ (3) Georgia (2 - 0) (-33.0) 41: It would have been nice for Georgia to schedule a tougher opponent in the first three weeks, but we’ll find out next week how good they really are when they take on Notre Dame. But this week, the Bulldogs better pay attention to a team that can put up some big numbers.

(6) Ohio State (2 - 0) (-15.5) 37 @ Indiana (2 - 0) 14: I wasn’t sold on the Buckeyes before the season, but they have barely missed a beat following the retirement of former head coach Urban Meyer, as evidenced by the way they dismantled a pretty good Cincinnati ream. Ryan Day has Ohio State playing at a high level and I don’t expect Indiana to pull the kind of upset that Purdue did last season.

Pittsburgh (1 - 1) 20 @ (13) Penn State (2 - 0) (-17.0) 31: The ACC is hopelessly bad this season and could use s big win to help reverse the slide. Despite the rivalry fervor, Pitt isn’t close to Penn State in talent, although they are the best team that the Nittany Lions have played so far this season. I still think Penn State is overrated and this game will give me some more data to see if I’m on track with that.

(21) Maryland (2 - 0) (-8.0) 42 @ Temple (1 - 0) 27: Maryland has been an offensive juggernaut to start the season. Temple put up 56 on FCS Bucknell that was 1 - 10 a year ago, so I’ll stay with the Terrapins. I’m surprised with the line in this game, which was most likely influenced by Temple’s margin of victory in their first game. Maryland is a big step up in class for the Owls.

New Mexico (1 -- 0) 17 @ (7) Notre Dame (1 - 0) (-35.0) 49: Notre Dame has had a couple of weeks to figure out what happened defensively against Louisville. New Mexico probably won’t present too much of a challenge, one of the few breathers in an otherwise difficult schedule. Covering a five-touchdown spread is a different challenge.

(2) Alabama (2 - 0) (-25.5) 37 @ South Carolina (1 - 1) 17: This is Alabama’s first big-boy test of the season. South Carolina let North Carolina steal a win in week one, then pounded Charleston Southern last week. Alabama has looked just as strong and efficient as expected against Duke and New Mexico State. I’m not smelling upset here, but the Gamecocks might make it closer than many expect.

Stanford (1 - 1) 20 @ (17) UCF (2 - 0) (-6.5) 30: This will be a good test for UCF, although Stanford got exposed last week against USC. The Cardinal should have their starting quarterback in the lineup, unlike the last game and a half. Traditionally, west coast teams don’t travel east very well, so I’ll stick with the favorite here.

USC (2 - 0) (-4.0) 31 @ BYU (1 - 1) 24: It appears that USC won’t miss a beat after losing starting quarterback J. T. Daniels. True freshman Kedon Slovis looked terrific against Stanford and expect USC’s team speed to overwhelm BYU.

Arizona State (2 - 0) 24 @ (18) Michigan State (2 - 0) (-13.5) 23: I just have a feeling about this one. I know I just mentioned the difficulty west coast teams have in the east, but I like Arizona State’s defense. This is based pretty much on a hunch, but I’m going with the Sun Devils in what would be a big win for the Pac-12.

(19) Iowa (2 - 0)(-2.0) 27 @ Iowa State (1 - 0) 13: Iowa State has been winning close games and Iowa has been winning because of a traditionally stifling defense. The Cyclones have only played a single game, one which they were lucky to pull out in overtime against middling FCS foe Northern Iowa. The line on this game is tighter than I think it should be, but it’s most likely based on the rivalry and the hangover buzz from last year’s Iowa State team.

Idaho State (1 - 0) 6 @ (11) Utah (2 - 0) (-36.5) 45: This shouldn’t be much of a problem for the Utes. Covering the big spread could be a stretch, but I like them to overwhelm Idaho State.

Kent State (1 - 0) 6 @ (8) Auburn (2 - 0) (-35.0) 42: Auburn has had slow starts in its first two games, so I think coach Gux Malzahn will be looking to make a statement against overmatched Kent State.

(9) Florida (2 - 0) (-8.5) 27 @ Kentucky (2 - 0) 24: Neither of these teams has been particularly impressive. Kentucky appears to be playing for a MAC title, with wins over Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Florida defeated Miami, Fla. in its first game, but the Hurricanes have since lost to UNC to take some luster off that win. I’m tempted to take Kentucky, but I’ll stick with Florida to pull out a squeaker.

Lamar (1 - 0 - 1) 10 @ (17) Texas A&M (1 - 1) (-43.5) 48: Texas A&M struggled last week against number one Clemson after beating hapless Texas State in week one. Lamar was in the FCS playoffs last season so they won’t be a pushover. I don’t see the Aggies covering the spread here.

(1) Clemson (2 - 0) (-27.5) 38 @ Syracuse (1 - 1) 10: The last time Clemson lost a regular season game was two years ago to Syracuse. Can the Orange catch lightning in a bottle again? Given the way Syracuse was thumped by Maryland last week, I seriously doubt it. Clemson just has too much this time around.

Northwestern State (0 -2) 6 @ (4) LSU (2 - 0) (-51.0) 59: LSU showed last week that they may have finally found the offensive firepower to go with a solid defense. Northwestern State won’t offer much resistance.

Hawaii (2 - 0) 27 @ (23) Washington (1 - 1) (-21.5) 38: Hawaii is already 2 - 0 against the Pac-12 so far this season, but neither Arizona nor Oregon State is quite in the same class as Washington. The Huskies are coming off a tough loss to Cal that struck a blow to their title hopes. Hawaii will have to play better defense to have a chance in this one.

Florida State (1 - 1) 20 @ (25) Virginia (2 - 0) (-7.5) 30: Florida State’s head coach Willie Taggert is on a very hot seat after losing four of five games down the stretch last season and opening this year with an ugly comeback loss to Boise State and an overtime win by one point over La.- Monroe. Virginia is now the favorite to win the ACC Coastal and is poised to make a statement this weekend.

(5) Oklahoma (2 - 0) (-22.5) 37 @ UCLA (0 - 2) 13: UCLA has lost to two Group of Five teams to open the season, and now they have to really step up in class as they welcome Oklahoma to the Rose Bowl. The Sooners have looked outstanding on offense with Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts leading the way for a very speedy and talented offense. The defense also has a lot of speed and may be the reason Oklahoma contends for the national title.

(12) Texas (1 - 1) (-30.5) 51 @ Rice (0 - 2) 17: Texas will be looking to take out some frustration on Rice after giving up 45 point to LSU last week. Rice has little resistance to offer.

Portland State (1 - 1) 13 @ (22) Boise State (2 - 0) (-31.5) 31: Boise has scored a couple of close wins over Florida State and Marshall. They need to keep focused on FCS Portland State who I saw in person give Arkansas fits in week one. despite giving up a ton of points last season, Portland State has improved dramatically on defense. This one might be a lot closer than the oddsmakers have predicted.

Montana (2 - 0) 17 @ (15) Oregon (1 - 1) (-36.0) 56: Montana has dominated against their first two FCS opponents, but heading into Autzen Stadium on a Saturday night is an entirely different matter. Oregon lit up Nevada for 77 last week, so Montana might have a long day on defense.

N.C. State (2 - 0) (-7.0) 34 @ West Virginia (1 - 1) 17: West Virginia is struggling after the departure of head coach Dan Holgorsen. They’ll be taking on a team that I think might be the most underrated in the ACC. Now that’s not saying much, since the ACC is so down this season.

Furman (1 - 1) 13 @ Va. Tech (1 - 1) (-21.5) 30: Furman is a solid FCS team with nothing to lose as they head into Lane Stadium. The Hokies are still struggling on offense and have an off week following this game as they prepare for the bulk of their ACC schedule. I look for Va. Tech to sputter, but still pull out a victory.

Kansas State (2 - 0) 31 @ Mississippi State (2 - 0) (-8.0) 27: Kansas State is averaging over 50 points a game, but that wasn’t against an SEC defense. But the positive is that Mississippi State’s defense doesn’t resemble an SEC caliber unit so far this season. I like the Wildcats in a big upset in Chris Klieman’s first season at Kansas State after building an FCS dynasty at North Dakota State.

TCU (1 - 0) (-2.0) 27 @ Purdue (1 - 1) 24: Purdue is on the upswing, but the difference in this one could be the TCU defense. I don’t believe Purdue will be able to put up six TD’s on the Horned Frogs like they did against Vanderbilt.

Texas Tech (2 - 0)(-2.0)34 @ Arizona (1 - 1) 37 : Arizona succumbed to a spread offense team in Hawaii in their first game, but I don’t think Texas Tech is hitting on all cylinders yet. I’ll take the home team in a mild upset.

Colorado State (1 - 1) 21 @ Arkansas (1 - 1) (-10.0) 27: Arkansas continues to have difficulty with Chad Morris’ offense. Mistakes and penalties hurt them against Ole Miss last week and that will need to improve if the Hogs are to avenge last season’s tough loss to the Rams.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK THREE FRIDAY NIGHT PREDICTIONS

2019-09-13T17:40:00.001-05:00

Last Week:

Straight-up 24 - 5 82.7%

Against the Spread 12 - 17 41.3%

Not a bad week for the straight picks, but not so great against the spread. Of course, that’s only significant if you’re betting, which currently I am not. A couple of good Friday night games on tap, highlighted by Washington State traveling to Houston where the home team will be looking for a big upset over a Power Five contender.

Friday

Kansas (1 - 1) 17 @ Boston College (2 - 0) (-21.0) 40: New head coach Les Miles has quite a job to rebuild Kansas, and it won’t get much easier in Boston. Last week’s loss to Coastal Carolina illustrates how far Les has to go.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK TWO PREDICTIONS

2019-09-07T09:40:00.002-05:00

The SEC didn’t exactly represent itself well in week one, with Missouri, Tennessee and Ole Miss all losing to non Power Five teams and Arkansas struggling to get a close win against an FCS squad. Week two has more compelling matchups, headlined by number six LSU traveling to ninth-rated Texas. The Aggies of Texas A&M will try to knock off top-ranked and defending national champion Clemson on the road. Wins in those game could help the SEC regain some swagger, at least at the top of the league.

For the first time, since gambling is now legal nationwide, I’m including the point spread with each game. While I’m not specifically picking against the spread, you can figure it out by my final score prediction.

Friday (from a previous post):

Saturday:

(12) Texas A&M (1 -0) 20 @ (1) Clemson (1 - 0) (-16.5) 38: This is one of the top games of the week, featuring former Florida State coach taking his Aggies into Death Valley to face the top-ranked Clemson Tigers. Based on Clemson’s opening week drubbing of Georgia Tech, it doesn’t appear the Tigers have missed a beat from last season’s national championship team. Fisher faced Clemson annually when he was in the ACC and should have an idea of how to play the Tigers. If this game was in College Station, I would give A&M a shot. But it’s not, and I have to go with Clemson.

Cincinnati (1 - 0) 24 @ (5) Ohio State (1 - 0) (-16.0) 34: Cincinnati dusted UCLA for the second consecutive year in week one, setting up this very intriguing matchup at the Horseshoe in Columbus. The American Athletic Conference had a very good opening week and could make another big statement with a Bearcat win over Ohio State.

Army (1 - 0) 17 @ (7) Michigan (1 - 0) (-22.0) 27: Army was 11 - 2 last year and its unconventional option offense is difficult to defend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cadets give Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines fits, but I think Michigan’s size and athleticism on defense will eventually wear Army down.

Rutgers (1 - 0) 17 @ (20) Iowa (1 - 0) (-20.0) 31: Rutgers snapped an 11 game losing streak last week with a big win over hapless UMass. There was promise in scoring 46 points after averaging less than 12 points a game in their final 11 games of last season. They’ll need a much better effort against the Hawkeyes if they want to score a monumental upset. I like Iowa to hold on at home, but Rutgers should give them a little more challenge than they expect.

(21) Syracuse (1 - 0) 30 @ Maryland (1 - 0) (-2.0) 27: I’m not quite sure how Maryland is the favorite in this game. They’ve shown very little consistency recently and they’re stadium hardly gives them much of a home field advantage. Meanwhile, Syracuse is coming off a breakthrough season where their only three losses were to national champion Clemson, Coastal Division winner Pittsburgh in overtime and CFP participant Notre Dame. Perhaps the oddsmakers know something I don’t, but I’m not buying it.

Northern Illinois (1 - 0) 14 @ (13) Utah (1 - 0) (-22.0) 37: The MAC is down this season and Northern Illinois isn’t even one of their top teams. Utah has a good chance at a playoff spot and I don’t think this game will be much of a problem for them, especially at home in Salt Lake City.

Central Michigan (1 - 0) 6 @ (17) Wisconsin (1 - 0) (-35.0) 57: Wisconsin went down to Tampa and spanked South Florida 49 - 0 in hot and humid conditions. Meanwhile, CMU gave up 21 points to a bottom-feeding FCS team. This one could get out of hand early.

(25) Nebraska (1 - 0) (-4.5) 30 @ Colorado (1 - 0) 24: Nebraska wasn’t particularly impressive last week against Sun Belt member South Alabama, one of the ten weakest teams in the FBS. The ‘Huskers will need to step up against Colorado, which is coming off a drubbing of rival Colorado State. I picked Nebraska to win the Big Ten West, so I’ll stay with them to rebound from last week.

New Mexico State (0 - 1) 7 @ (2) Alabama (1 - 0) (-55.0) 66: I’m not sure when I last saw a 55 point spread, but I could argue that it might not even be high enough. The Aggies gave up over 40 points a game last year and there wasn’t anyone close to Alabama on their schedule. If this was a fight, they might call it after three quarters.

Murray State (1 - 0) 13 @ (3) Georgia (1 - 0) (-49.0) 56: Georgia, fresh off a conference win at Vanderbilt, takes a week off against a middling FCS foe. Why do they even bother?

Northern Colorado (0 - 1) 13 @ (22) Washington State (1 - 0) (-36.5) 52: Washington dusted New Mexico State, 58 - 7 and this could be even worse. At least the Cougars play a decent Houston team in week 3 or their non-conference schedule would be pathetic.

South Dakota (0 - 1) 13 @ (4) Oklahoma (1 - 0) (-39.0) 59: Another one? Oklahoma was very impressive on both sides of the ball last week against Houston. Their speed on defense just might be the difference in getting them to the playoffs.

(18) UCF (1 - 0) (-11.0) 38 @ Florida Atlantic (0 - 1) 24: I’m not sure why UCF is only giving 11 points in this one. Florida Atlantic didn’t show up for a half last week at Ohio State and then made a move against the second teamers to make it respectable. UCF will be playing with a chip on its shoulder all season and will be looking to run it up on Lane Kiffin’s FAU team that is short on defensive skill.

(6) LSU (1 - 0) (-6.5) 28 @ (9) Texas (1 - 0) 24: LSU is one of my picks to get to the playoffs and this game will be instrumental when it comes to selection time. Texas is definitely headed in the right direction, but I look for LSU’s defense to give the Longhorns too for them to overcome.

Tulane (1 - 0) 21 @ (10) Auburn (1 - 0) (-17.0) 31: Auburn escaped Arlington with a last second win over Oregon after being dominated all night. Tulane put up 41 points on Florida International, a bowl team from last season. The Green Wave should be no problem for the Tigers, unless they are Auburn suffers a bit of a letdown from last week. Auburn’s defense will be tested and freshman QB Bo Nix will need to step up his game to avoid the upset.

UT Martin (1 - 0) 6 @ (11) Florida (1 - 0) (-44.5) 49: Frankly, I’m tired of wasting effort on these unnecessary games.

Buffalo (1 - 0) 20 @ (15) Penn State (1 - 0) (-31.0) 56: Buffalo won ten games last year and played in the MAC championship game. Along the way, they defeated a Power Five team, but that was a one win Rutgers team. Penn State, coming off a 79 point performance against Idaho, presents a an entirely different challenge.

Nevada (1 - 0) 20 @ (16) Oregon (0 - 1) (-24.5) 38: Oregon, as mentioned earlier, dominated Auburn for three and a half quarters only to see Auburn score the go ahead touchdown with nine seconds on the clock. Nevada defeated Power Five Purdue, but they’re not in the same class as the Ducks, who need to regroup after that disappointing loss.

Western Michigan (1 - 0) 20 @ (19) Michigan State (1 - 0) (-15.5) 27: Western Michigan is one of the top teams in the MAC, but they’ll still be overmatched in this one. However, Michigan State is still a bit challenged offensively and Western Michigan can put some points on the board. If there was one possible MAC - Big Ten upset, this could be the one.

California (1 - 0) 17 @ (14) Washington (1 - 0) (-13.5): 30 The Pac-12 North is stacked this season, but Cal isn’t one of those top teams. I have to go with a much better Washington team here as they look to repeat as North champs and challenge for a playoff spot.

(23) Stanford (1 - 0) 20 @ USC (1 - 0) (-3.0) 24: Both of these teams will be without their starting quarterbacks for this game. In the case of USC, it’s for the entire season as J.T. Daniels suffered a torn ACL against Fresno State. True freshman Kedon Slovis, who was adequate but not sensational in the second half last week, will be facing a much sterner defense this week. I like USC’s skill players and will take the home team.

Old Dominion (1 - 0) 17 @ Va. Tech (0 - 1) (-28.5) 42: Last season, ODU pulled one of the big upsets of the year, taking advantage of a disinterested Hokie defense to shock 13th ranked Tech, 49 - 35. This time around, Tech is coming off a frustrating five turnover loss to Boston College and should be more focused. Old Dominion lost some key offensive starters off what turned out to be a pedestrian 4 - 8 team. A repeat of last year is doubtful.

South Florida (0 - 1) 23 @ Ga. Tech (0 - 1) (-6.0) 31: Both of these teams were totally ineffective against respective top 25 teams: Georgia Tech to Clemson and South Florida to Wisconsin. South Florida won this matchup last season, but they are in the midst of a seven game losing streak and things don’t seem to be improving much under head coach Charlie Strong.

Miami (0 - 1) (-5.5) 27 @ UNC (1 - 0) 24: After a disappointing loss to Florida, Miami has had a week to lick their wounds and get ready for ACC play. North Carolina erased a 20 - 9 fourth quarter deficit to South Carolina to grab a victory in Mack Brown’s first game back with the Tar Heels. I haven’t been sold on Miami, but I think they’re better than an improved UNC.

West Va. (1 - 0) 27 @ Missouri (0 - 1) (-13.5) 38: Was Missouri’s loss to Wyoming a fluke or a sign that the Tigers aren’t all they were predicted to be following the transfer in of former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant? I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt as they gave up two 60+ yard runs and a defensive TD to fall behind by 17 points before falling just short in a fourth quarter comeback.

Vanderbilt (0 - 1) 27 @ Purdue (0 - 1) (-7.0) 30: Purdue lost a close one to Nevada, Vanderbilt got soundly beaten by number 3 Georgia. It’s hard to take much from those games, so I’ll stay with Purdue at home.

Oregon St. (0 - 1) 31 @ Hawaii (1 - 0) (-6.5) 40: Hawaii took care of Pac-12 Arizona the opening weekend and should be able to dispatch the Beavers, too. Oregon State gave up 52 to Oklahoma State in their opener and Hawaii is almost if not equally potent on offense.

Arkansas (1 - 0) 27 @ Ole Miss (0 - 1) (-8.0) 24: Neither of these teams was impressive in week one. Ole Miss made the short trip to Memphis and went home with a loss. Arkansas had trouble at home with what should have been an overmatched Portland State from the FCS, squeaking out a 20 - 13 win. The Razorbacks struggled in the red zone, but the defense looked solid. I’m going with an upset.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2 PICKS

2019-09-06T19:55:00.000-05:00

Friday:

Marshall (1 - 0) 21 @ (24) Boise State (1 - 0) (-13.5) 31: It was hard to get much of a read on Marshall after week one, posting a 56 - 17 win against overmatched FCS member VMI. Boise State showed a lot of grit in their opener, coming from 18 points down to defeat Florida State in hot and humid Tallahassee. With that win, Boise jumps into the top Group of Five team conversation with UCF and a couple of others. I wouldn’t count Marshall out, however, as they are the favorites in Conference USA and are coming off a 9 - 4 season and a bowl win over South Florida.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

POWER FIVE CONFERENCE ANALYSIS: DIVISION BREAKDOWN

2019-08-24T15:26:00.001-05:00

This piece will compare each of the divisions in the Power Five (the Big 12 will be treated as a division) and see how they look against each other. It’s generally considered that the SEC is the strongest conference, yet fans of the Big 10 tend to differ with that assessment. There have been times in the recent past when the ACC attempted to make a case that it was the top power conference. I conducted an extensive study based on rankings in Lindy’s Sports College Football preview. Granted, it’s just based on a single publication, but my past experience with Lindy’s has led me to believe it’s as credible as any of the others. The results of this study don’t generally predict that the winners of those higher ranked divisions (or the Big 12) will necessarily be in the playoffs. The downside for a tough division or conference is that cannibalization within the league can diminish the champion’s chance of emerging as a national title contender.

I’m going to break down each division in reverse order, beginning with the worst, at least statistically and assess the chances of the champion to have a good regular season run and have an opportunity to get into the playoffs. Some of this logic might seem counterintuitive, but stay with me and it’s possible you’ll begin to see where I’m headed.

ACC Coastal

The highest ranked team in this division is Miami, and their 19th place by Lindy’s is dubious at best. This is a team that so underperformed that it prompted the retirement of head coach Mark Richt. New head man Manny Diaz bailed on Temple after accepting the job and hiring a staff. To say that uncertainty surrounds the Hurricane program is a gross understatement. And this is the cream of Coastal crop? You’re probably starting to understand why this is the worst division in Power Five football. But the news isn’t totally negative. Because of the weakness of the division, there is a real possibility that a team could emerge with a single loss, or even undefeated, to challenge what most people surmise will be defending national champions Clemson for the conference championship. The top three teams in the division have three of the easiest schedules in the Power Five. Virginia Tech leads the way, mostly because of an embarrassing non-conference slate. But they also avoid the top teams from the Atlantic division, meaning their season basically comes down to the two road contests at Miami and Virginia. Throw into the mix that they return eight starters on defense for nationally recognized coordinator Bud Foster’s last season and you can figure things could be magical for the Hokies. And as a Tech alum, I can’t help but point out Virginia hasn’t defeated the Hokies since the George W. Bush administration. It comes down to October 6 in Miami for the chance to take on Clemson. PICK: Virginia Tech

ACC Atlantic

There’s Clemson and then...okay, I have to give Syracuse some love here. But given the relative weakness of Clemson’s conference schedule, the Orange’s only hope is to take down the Tigers when they visit the Carrier Dome. Syracuse had Clemson on the ropes last year in Death Valley after an injury to freshman sensation Trevor Lawrence, but let them off the hook. Clemson and Syracuse both dodge Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia. Clemson faces Georgia Tech and North Carolina, arguably the bottom feeders of the worst division in the Power Five, while Syracuse takes on Pittsburgh and Duke, slight upgrades over the Tigers’ non-division slate. Without the power of Clemson, this division would be the laughing stock of college football. They don’t schedule anyone and internally are mediocre at best. Florida State made a bad hire in Willie Taggert and his team demonstrated that by quitting on their coach in embarrassing fashion down the stretch last season. ‘Noles have to meet Miami and Virginia, tying them with Louisville for the toughest non-division schedule in the Atlantic. If Florida State can’t resurrect their program, the ACC’s in big trouble, especially since a similar situation presented itself at Louisville, when the Cardinals dropped their final nine games and gave up over 50 points in six of those losses. The big question is whether the playoff committee will take the weakness of the conference into consideration when making their picks for the semifinals. PICK: Clemson

Pac-12 South

The Pac-12 is an extremely unbalanced league: I’m talking about the respective divisions not the coaches or players. Unlike the North, the South has only one ranked team. When you get past Utah, I just don’t see anyone else with a shot at winning the division, primarily because USC, the other contender, has a brutal conference schedule. They also have a very tough non-conference slate, so I have a hard time seeing the Trojans building any momentum in their season. Utah will benefit from the fourth easiest non-division conference schedule as well as unimpressive non-conference games. The Utes dodge both Oregon and Stanford and have games against Cal and Oregon State, the two bottom feeders in the North. Other than Utah and USC, we’re probably looking at an array of teams just trying to make it into a bowl game. This division only had two bowl teams last season and it appears they may be able to increase that by one if USC can navigate their difficult schedule. UCLA, in Chip Kelly’s second season, might be able to get to six or seven wins because they don’t have to face Oregon or Washington. Their problem will be dealing with a road game against Cincinnati to open the season and then a home contest with Oklahoma in week three. Arizona State coach Herman Edwards has a favorable schedule to get his Sun Devils into a second consecutive bowl game. Colorado has almost no chance. They face the top four teams from the North, giving them the most difficult non-division schedule in the conference. PICK: Utah

Big 12

This is the only conference in the Power Five that plays a round robin league schedule because they are not split into divisions. The conference would rate out much higher except for getting dragged down by Kansas’ 94th ranking. Oklahoma’s number four serves to offset the Jayhawks’ weakness, but for the most part it’s a fairly well balanced league. There are four new coaches in the Big 12, some of them fairly high profile moves for different reasons. Longtime Kansas State leader Bill Snyder finally stepped down after a quarter century in Manhattan in two stints. Without Snyder, K-State was barely competitive and it will be interesting to see if Chris Klieman can replicate his success at FCS North Dakota State where he won four national championships in five years. My guess is it’ll be tough. At in-state rival Kansas, Les Miles will bring his unique style and grass eating quirk to Lawrence hoping to do something few have done there: build a consistent winner. My sense is that with the backing of former PIttsburgh and Arkansas athletic director Jeff Long, he has a chance. And in one of the strangest occurrences in recent memory, Texas Tech fired coach Kliff Kingsbury who ended up as the head guy of the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals. Say what? But at the end of the season, the Big 12 will most likely belong to Oklahoma once again, but it won’t be easy. Defensive minded Texas and Iowa State will challenge the Sooners. Texas lost eight defensive starters, so they may need to more consistently show the kind of offense they displayed in a 48 - 45 win over Oklahoma if they’re going to challenge for the title again. The Longhorns will also have the opportunity to grab some early season love if they can take down LSU in week two. The same can be said for Iowa State, a tough defensive team that had three games where they scored less than 15 points last season. That just won’t get it done in the high scoring Big 12. At the end of the season, I still believe in Oklahoma, but I wouldn’t sleep on Texas. PICK: Oklahoma

Big Ten East

With four teams in the top 26 and the other three in ranked between 58 and 100, this is perhaps the most top-heavy division in the power five. The big question will once surround Michigan’s ability to defeat rival Ohio State for the first time in Wolverine coach Jim Harbaugh’s five year tenure. With a new coach in Columbus and the game at Michigan, perhaps the home team has its best chance in many years to advance to the Big Ten championship game. If so, the Wolverines will have to overcome a tough non-division schedule in the conference. They travel to Wisconsin and host Iowa, the top two teams from the West. Harbaugh’s squad also hosts Notre Dame, translating into the sixth most difficult Power Five schedule. Can Harbaugh reload on defense, where he lost seven starters? Ohio State, Michigan’s primary challenger, face the second toughest non-division schedule in the conference. Besides travelling to the aforementioned Michigan to end the regular season, the Buckeyes also travel to Nebraska and Northwestern and host Wisconsin. Michigan State could challenge, but they have to visit Wisconsin and Northwestern, so none of the top three in the east get much of a break. Penn State faces just one of the top teams from the west, so they may have a slight advantage in the non-division schedule, but they have a new quarterback that will facing stout Gig 10 defenses. Overall, I have to give Michigan the edge, but it’s slight and depends greatly on that last game in the Big House. PICK: Michigan

Big Ten West

The primary difference between the Big Ten divisions is that the West only has one team ranked worse than 50th, while the East has three. Even though the East has two top ten teams, the West is a little deeper and more balanced. While this may look like a battle between Iowa and Wisconsin, the non-division schedules will probably play a big role in letting Nebraska into the hunt. Wisconsin has the third most difficult non-division schedule in the entire Power Five, taking on Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State, the three top teams from the East. Talk about the luck of the draw. Meanwhile, Iowa meets Rutgers, Michigan and Penn State. And finally there’s the Cornhuskers’ non-division slate of Ohio State, Indiana and Maryland. Advantage Nebraska. I like Scott Frost’s chances in his second season at the helm of the Cornhuskers. They won four of their last six games after dropping their first six. The last one of those six was an overtime loss to Northwestern that they should have pulled out. The other two losses down the stretch were close ones at Ohio State and Iowa. I like Nebraska’s chances this time around to at least get to the Big Ten championship, based primarily on the schedule. Iowa and Wisconsin might be slightly better teams, but Nebraska hosts them both and probably owns a game advantage in the non-division. PICK: Nebraska

Pac-12 North

If the Pac-12 South is underwhelming, the North is downright exciting. Oregon , Washington, Stanford and Washington State will be on the national radar for most of the season. With the exception of Washington, they all play compelling non-conference games. Oregon opens with SEC member Auburn, Stanford boasts the country’s toughest non-conference schedule and Washington State travels to Houston to give an AAC team a shot at a Power Five upset. If Oregon State was predicted to be more competitive, this could have been in the running for the toughest division in college football. Even as it stands, it’s going to be a dogfight. Just like in the Big Ten West, it may come down to who gets to dodge South favorite Utah. Washington hosts the Utes, while Washington State has to travel to Salt Lake City. Neither Oregon nor Stanford will have to deal with Utah. I’m not yet sold on Oregon because of that mediocre defense. I like Stanford, but their schedule might wear them down by the end of the season. Washington State has road games with Utah, Arizona State, Oregon and Washington which leads me to question whether they can prevail in the North. Based on the schedule, I like Washington to repeat, but it may come down once again to the season finale against archrival Washington State. PICK: Washington

SEC East

All SEC haters are going to refute these rankings, but it’s pretty clear that the strongest conference in the land is the one currently ruled by the Alabama Crimson Tide. Even though it’s close, the SEC East falls just short of the West. The strength of the division is predicted once again to be the Georgia Bulldogs, even though they lost eight offensive starters. The key is that Jake Fromm returns at quarterback. The Florida Gators, most likely because they return eight starters off a unit that ranked 20th in points given up in 2018, is also highly regarded. In terms of scheduling, South Carolina has by far the most difficult one in the division. Not only is the SEC East tough, but the Gamecocks also play number two Alabama and number 13 Texas A&M from the West. To make matters worse, they also face top ranked Clemson to end the season. That all adds up to half of their schedule against top 25 teams. Compare that with Missouri, which plays just two top twenty-five teams and gets to take on Ole Miss and Arkansas from the West, the two worst ranked teams in the division. They also face no one higher than 63rd in their non-conference games. That’s quite an inequity for two teams playing in the same division. Georgia plays at Auburn and hosts Texas A&M, but despite the tough schedule they’re still my pick for the division. PICK: Georgia

SEC West:

Could this be the year that someone unseats Alabama and keeps them from the college football playoffs? In 2017 they tied for the division crown, didn’t make the SEC championship but still won the national title. This season, the SEC West is statistically the toughest division in college football. With Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M all ranked in the top 15, the winner will need to navigate a very difficult schedule just within the division. Alabama sports the second easiest non-division schedule and the second easiest non-conference schedule, so they’re path to title is among the softest in the conference. In stark contrast, Auburn must play Georgia and Florida, giving it the most difficult non-division schedule in the Power Five conferences. That’s an inequity of great proportion and something the SEC needs to address, most likely by moving to a nine game conference schedule. But that’s not happening anytime soon, and certainly not in time to help Auburn this season. They also take on Oregon to open the season. LSU also faces an easier non-division slate, hosting Florida and traveling to Vanderbilt, but the Tigers will be heading to Tuscaloosa in what might be the game of the season in the SEC West. Even though the Crimson Tide have a favorable schedule, I just have a feeling that this might be the year that Alabama fails to meet expectations. Someone has to end up in the championship game in Atlanta, but they might very well have a couple of losses. I like LSU, primarily because they finally have a quarterback in Joe Burrow to go with a defense that returns eight players from a pretty good defense. We’ll get to see pretty early when the Tigers travel to Texas in week two. PICK: LSU

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OPENING WEEK PREDICTIONS

2019-08-24T12:05:00.003-05:00

After a one year hiatus, my college football prediction blog is back. As in the past, I will be picking games that involve teams ranked in the top 25 in the coaches poll and any inter-conference matchups. The FBS season begins today with two games, both in tropical environments. Eighth ranked Florida takes on instate rival Miami just a few miles from Disney World and Pac-12 hopeful Arizona will travel to the islands to meet Hawaii.

(8) Florida 24 vs. Miami 13(Orlando, Florida): The Florida Gators are coming off a successful season under first year head coach Dan Mullen. After a week two lass o Kentucky, they went on to win nine of their next 11 games to finish with a 10 - 3 record, capped by a 41 - 15 drubbing of Michigan in the Peach Bowl. The strength of the team is on the defensive side of the ball, where they return eight starters off a solid unit. They are expected to challenge Georgia for the SEC East title. Miami, following the unexpected retirement of Mark Richt, have a new head coach in former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. The Hurricanes return just four starters from an offense that was one of the worst in the Power Five last season, so they will probably need to play solid defense if they’re going to have a chance to upset the Gators. I believe Mullen has Florida headed in the right direction while Diaz has a tough task in front of him to bring Miami back to prominence. If this game was a couple of weeks later, I’d like Miami’s chances better.

Arizona 41 at Hawaii 31: Kevin Sumlin, former Houston and Tezas A&M coach, begins his second campaign with Arizona. The Wildcats’ 5 - 7 record was a little deceiving as the losses to UCLA and Arizona State were both by a single point. The offense, which returns eight starters, was inconsistent at times but scored 40 points or more in three of their last four games. They’ll be taking on a Warriors team that excels in the passing game, finishing ninth in the FBS a season ago while going 8 - 5 with a loss to Louisiana Tech as the host in the Hawaii Bow.. Arizona ranked in the bottom ten in pass defense, so they’ll either need to find improvement or take full advantage of Hawaii’s porous run defense. This isn’t a great matchup for Arizona, but they have more talent and should be able to win in what could be a shootout.

Hear my recent interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com . Check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

GOLF: A LOOK BACK AT 2018

2018-12-19T09:21:00.000-06:00

There were several historic moments in men’s professional golf in 2018. I’ve chosen a few to comment on and have given each a corresponding golf score.

Double Bogey: The United States Ryder Cup performance

It’s hard to believe that after taking a 3 - 1 lead in the first session of fourball, also known as best ball, the United States Ryder Cup team barely showed up for the rest of the weekend. Tiger Woods went 0 - 4 for the week and the United States team was blanked 4 - 0 in Friday afternoon foursomes and lost 3 -1 in Saturday morning foursomes to fall into an almost insurmountable 8 - 4 deficit. The foursomes format, also known as alternate shot, has historically been an issue for the Americans, and 2018 was no exception. Whether it was the home course advantage, more enthusiasm for the event or collective fatigue on the part of the Americans, it was clear beginning Friday afternoon that the visitors would leave France without the Ryder Cup, now in possession of the Europeans. To add more pain to the loss was the very public, apparent feud between Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth. It was an embarrassing episode for the Americans and probably will carry over into future team events. My take was that every American on the Ryder Cup team, except for Spieth, had just finished playing in the FedEx Cup playoffs in Atlanta five days before. Tiger Woods ended a five year drought with an incredible and emotional victory at the Tour Championship, his 80th in his illustrious career, then hopped on a plane to France. By contrast, only half the players on the European side qualified for the Tour Championship, giving them a week of rest prior to the Ryder Cup matches. In the future, I hope the PGA of America and the R & A can schedule the event to give all players a week off. But still, a team with the firepower of the Americans should have given the Europeans a better match.

Bogey: Zach Johnson parts ways with longtime caddie Damon Green

A couple of weeks ago, Zach Johnson decided that he and his caddie “...need to take a break. It’s not a firing.” Really? Damon Green said that he “was shocked.” That sounds like a firing to me. Green had been on Johnson’s bag since the two-time major champion’s rookie season, with the pair combining for 11 Tour wins and that pair of majors. Last season, Johnson finished 58th in the FedEx Cup, only missed two cuts, but managed just a couple of top tens and 14 top twenty-five finishes in 25 events. He won just short of $2 million. It wasn’t much different than his results a couple of seasons earlier in 2016. Johnson is 42 years old, the same age as Tiger Woods. Perhaps Woods’ win makes Johnson feel that he’s underperforming and maybe Green is the problem. Still, I don’t believe it’s a good look for a guy who is generally considered one of the nicest player on Tour. Does Zach Johnson have every right to employ whoever he wants as his caddie? Absolutely. Do I have the right to criticize him for a bad optic and how it apparently went down? Of course I do.

Par: The Match

When Phil Mickelson jabbed at Tiger Woods during The Players tournament in May to play a match for big bucks, apparently plans for The Match were already underway, so Mickelson was merely priming the pump. The Match itself was a winner -take-all, $10 million pay-per-view event over Thanksgiving weekend. What many fans were hoping for were 18 holes of jabbing, side bets and entertaining byplay between Phil and Tiger. What we got was fairly competitive golf, with both players reverting to form as Phil tried to engage Tiger in conversation and Tiger focusing instead on playing golf shots. One of the reasons that there were less side bets than we wanted is because the PGA Tour has some rules that limited the amount of betting activity, etc. during the match. As far as the golf being played, it wasn’t spectacular, but it was competitive. The positives were how close the match was and getting to see the two best players of their generation going head to head. The negatives were that it was a bit more boring than we wanted and the contrived par three playoff hole where the players teed off from a practice green. I liked that neither player wanted to win with the other player missing a short second putt and that it took a good birdie for Phil to walk away with $10 million. I just wish we’d seen this ten years ago, when both players were in the middle of major tournament winning seasons.

Birdies: Molinari at The Open Championship and Rose taking the FedEx Cup

Since the Europeans seem to thrive on the team concept, I decided to pair these two great golfers together in this piece. With Tiger Woods breathing down his neck at Carnoustie, Francesco Molinari held it together down the stretch to become the first Italian major champion. The 36 year old had an incredible month of July, winning the Quicken Loans National with a closing 62 and finishing second in the John Deere Classic a couple of weeks later. Then he hopped on a plane for Scotland and left a few days later with the Claret Jug. The Quicken Loans was his first PGA Tour win to go with a quintet of European Tour victories. Molinari has only been playing on the PGA Tour full time since 2015 and it appears the move has finally paid off. Rose’s win in the season-long FedEx Cup competition solidified the nine time Tour winner and former U.S. Open champ as one of the top players in the game. He finished one shot out of finishing 2018 as the number one player in the world rankings, losing out to Brooks Koepka. Rose’s rise to prominence is interesting as the Englishman crashed into our consciousness as an 18 year old amateur who contended at the 1998 Open Championship. He turned pro shortly thereafter, but missed his first 21 cuts. His perseverance eventually resulted in 12 European and 9 PGA Tour victories. His FedEx Cup championship was overshadowed by Woods’ win at The Tour Championship, but it was a hard earned accomplishment.

Eagle: Brooks Koepka’s two majors and second consecutive U.S. Open

For only the second time in almost 70 years, a golfer won back to back U.S. Open Championships. Brooks Koepka, who defeated 155 other golfers and a brutal Shinnecock Hills golf course, was greeted at the 18th hole by the last one to accomplish the feat, 1988 and 1989 champion Curtis Strange. Strange was a member of the Fox broadcast team and the only one alive who can relate to what Koepka was dealing with as he made putt after putt to secure the win. A couple of months later, he capped off an incredible season by taking the PGA Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, outlasting Tiger Woods down the stretch with an awesome display around the greens. Koepka capped off a great 2018 by winning The CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges, his first start of the wraparound 2018 - 2019 season. Of his five Tour victories, three are major championships. It almost seems as if he lacks a pulse, or at least nerves. The 28 year old out of Florida State appears to have a bright future.

Hole-in-One: The return of Tiger Woods

As the gallery swarmed through the ropes on the fairway of the 18th hole at East Lake Golf Club, a red shirt clad Tiger Woods emerged, with Rory McIlroy a couple of steps behind. A few minutes later, Woods was standing over a putt to end his long journey. Less than a year before, as vice-captain for the victorious American Presidents Cup team, Woods had reportedly questioned whether he would ever play another round of competitive golf. His comeback had begun quietly in November of 2017, at his own Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. Tiger seemed to be pain free after well documented knee and back surgeries, the last one a risky fusion operation. His drives were long, at times outdriving big hitting Justin Thomas, his playing partner in the first round. He went on to finish in a tie for ninth in the 18 player field. His world ranking was somewhere in the 900’s, but it was cause for cautious optimism. Could he stay healthy? By the time the Masters rolled around in April, the 14 time major winner was coming off consecutive top five finishes, including a second place at the Valspar Championship. A tie for 32nd at Augusta was a little disappointing, but the progress in his game was evident. He was making cuts and slowly moving up the world rankings and the FedEx Cup standings.His tie for 11th at The Players on a course that is not well suited to his game caused interest to soar once again. An ugly start at the U.S. Open doomed him to missing the weekend, but a fourth place tie at the Quicken Loans sent him into The Open Championship with renewed confidence. Standing over a greenside chip shot on the 11th hole on Sunday, Woods had a one shot lead, just seven holes from a 15th major title. But a poor decision on the shot resulted in a double-bogey and a sixth place result as he watched Molinari go onto victory. The top-ten finish, however, advanced him to 50th in the world rankings, qualifying him for the World Golf Championship - Bridgestone Championship a couple of weeks later. He finished in the middle of the pack and headed to St. Louis for the PGA Championship. As mentioned previously, he again contended and settled for second behind Koepka. But he’d done something almost as incredible as his first year on Tour, when he qualified for one of 30 spots in the Tour Championship in only seven events. This time, he qualified in 20th place and posted finishes of 40th, 24th and sixth in the first three playoff events. More importantly, he’d played five out of six weeks without any adverse physical issues. That he had that two foot putt to win again had the sports world mesmerized. A few moments later, he was bent over at the waist, his head in his hands, having just sunk a putt that would give him his 80th career PGA Tour victory. To see him embracing caddie Joey Lacava in victory was as emotional a scene as I’ve witnessed in sports. The Tour Championship win ended five winless years for perhaps the best golfer of all time, marking what could also be the most unlikely comeback in sports history.

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 9:00 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

A WEDNESDAY IN NOVEMBER: DUKE ROLLS, COWBOYS STRUGGLE, ALABAMA ON TOP AGAIN

2018-11-07T09:45:00.002-06:00

Duke Embraces One and Done: Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski was a little late to the "one and done" party in the college game, but in a contest pitting his young squad against the master of the strategy, John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats, it's apparent the reigning king of coaches has figured it out. Led by freshman RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish who combined for 83 points, the fourth-ranked Blue Devils scorched second-ranked Kentucky 118 - 84. Those three top scorers came just one point short of beating the Wildcats by themselves. This wasn't done against some early season sacrificial lamb in the friendly confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium, but on a neutral court against one of the other premier programs in NCAA history. Kentucky is also supposedly stacked with talent, but we'll have to let the season unfold before getting a full understanding of how impactful this win is for Duke. As we've seen in the past, whether it's basketball for football, an opening game win that we thought would set the stage for the season can lose its luster if either team stumbles in the ensuing weeks. People are already talking about Duke going undefeated, but I'm not jumping on that bandwagon yet. Is Duke undoubtedly a great team? I would tend to say yes. Are we premature in anointing the Blue Devils as the next great thing? Absolutely. Duke is a young team and had the advantage of jumping out early on Kentucky, another team made up of freshman and sophomores. If the Blue Devils are able to dominate a very difficult ACC, then I'll check back on the subject in March. Until then, all I know is Duke put a big time hurt on Kentucky in the season's opening game.

Cowboy's Fan Base Must Be Getting Restless: As a long suffering one-time avid Redskins fan who has fallen to lukewarm status, it surprises me that the Cowboys still enjoy a rather rabid following. They have an owner in Jerry Jones who feels like he knows football because he pulled off one big trade almost thirty years ago in the pre-free agency era that resulted in three Super Bowl wins in four years. The Cowboys have won just a single playoff game in twenty years. Jones has stuck with head coach Jason Garrett despite mostly mediocre winning records that have made it difficult for the team to get any high draft picks without trading up to get them. By refusing to bring in an NFL savvy general manager, Jones has perpetuated that mediocrity. I suspect, although last week's trade for Amari Cooper with the Raiders was a good one, that Jones' high profile may make it difficult for him or his son Stephen to do the back channel work necessary to get the players necessary to upgrade the team. I actually have a lot of respect for Jerry Jones. He is a loyal manager about whom many say good things. The fact that he revolutionized what a franchise in the NFL looks like are a tribute to his business acumen. Just like Dan Snyder in Washington, that business success hasn't translated into winning on the field in the current millenium. Even when they have talent, the Cowboys find a way to lose. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been held to just 94 yards on 32 carries in the last two games. In a game that Dallas could still win Monday night against the Titans, Elliott disappeared in the second half. I have to agree with Troy Aikman, the Hall of Fame former Cowboy quarterback, who said in an interview Tuesday that the Dallas organization needs a total overhaul. It's doubtful Jerry Jones will fire himself or son Stephen as general manager, but perhaps they'll start the process with bringing in a new coaching staff.

Where Does This Crimson Tide Team Stand Historically? After dismantling what is considered a pretty good LSU team 29 - 0 on Saturday night at hostile Death Valley in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, it's probably not unreasonable to start speculating where this Alabama team ranks with the best teams of all time. The last couple of regular seasons I wasn't totally sold on the Crimson Tide as a complete team. Even though he was talented, quarterback Jalen Hurts was a bit inconsistent and their secondary was vulnerable to big plays. With the emergence of Tua Tagovailoa behind center and a strengthened defense, Alabama looks virtually unbeatable to me. Tua hasn't even had to play a full game, so it's scary to think what the Tide would do with the top offense on the field for 60 minutes. A lot of so called experts are speculating what happens if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game. Did they not watch the second half of last seasons' national championship game? Georgia is probably not quite as good as they were last year and the Tide is clearly better. It would be a huge upset for someone to be able to topple Alabama this season, unless it's Clemson in the title game. So where does this team stand in history? As premature as it is, since they haven't won the title this season, I believe they rank pretty high, perhaps first or second. The other team that comes to mind that I believe is in the same class is the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers, who dismantled a pretty good Florida team 62 - 24 in the Fiesta Bowl to cap off an undefeated season with a national championship. The 'Huskers scored more than 40 points in all but two games and one of those was a 37 - 0 thrashing of rival Oklahoma. Will this Alabama team meet those standards?

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

A SURPRISE FINALE TO THE USGA'S 73RD U.S. WOMEN'S OPEN

2018-06-05T10:49:00.002-05:00

When Ariya Jutanugarn stood on the 10th tee Sunday afternoon in the U.S. Women’s Open, her lead over Hyo Joo Kim was a seemingly insurmountable seven shots. It appeared the rest of the field was playing for second place and a nice piece of the biggest purse on the LPGA Tour schedule. Five birdies and a bogey by Jutanugarn had bettered her score by four shots to 16 under par. A couple of hours later, she stood over a five foot bogey putt to secure a spot in a playoff against Kim, who carded a bogey-free 67, with two birdies on the back nine, including a chip in on the 15th hole, to erase the huge deficit. I’m certain Ariya was asking herself, “How did this happen?”

It began with a pushed three wood on the 10th hole that found the water hazard on the right side of the fairway. She had to play a short third shot because of tree issues and finally brushed in a short putt for a triple-bogey seven. The shock of the score was not just the three lost shots, but the break down by the most reliable club in Jutanugarn’s bag: her three wood. Without a driver in her bag, Ariya had depended on the length and accuracy of her fairway metal to forge the big lead and it was surprising to see that wayward drive on the 10th hole. Compounding her problems, she decided to abandon the three-wood for most of the rest of the round in favor of a driving iron and it appeared to shake her confidence and rhythm.

Ariya Jutanugarn With Her Driving Iron

Meanwhile Kim, the 2014 Evian Championship winner, was putting together a flawless inward nine holes. The similarities between the 22 year-old Korean and Jutanugrn are interesting. Both share a birth year, the same number of majors as well as only a single previous made cut in the U.S. Women’s Open in 2016. Of course, there was nothing similar about what transpired for the players on Sunday’s back nine. Kim entered the two-hole aggregate playoff without a bogey in her last 31 holes and was beaming with confidence before teeing off on the 14th hole. Her mood further improved after her birdie on the first playoff hole. giving her a one-shot lead going to the 18th hole. Forty-five minutes later, Ariya Jutanugarn was holding the trophy after somehow averting one of the biggest collapses in major championship history after Kim bogeyed the 18th hole twice, the second time after the playoff had gone to sudden death when the two players were tied after the end of the two-hole aggregate portion.

Hyo Joo Kim

Initially, this piece was going to be about the weekend dominance of Jutanugarn, who had turned a five shot deficit to Sarah Jane Smith at the beginning of her second round into the large lead with nine holes remaining. It was going to be about how far she hits the ball, out-driving most of her competitors using a three wood off the tee. It was going to be about her calm under pressure and her ability to make big putts at the right time, as she’s done to chalk up eight LPGA titles, including the

2016 Ricoh Women’s British Open. It was going to be about we might be looking at the next dominant player in women’s golf, especially with the way she can close out wins after leading going into the final round. The question is did a bad nine holes, including a pair of closing bogeys, change all of that? If all we look at is the result, perhaps not. She won her second major championship at the age of 22 and did so by demonstrating incredible resiliency by hanging in there despite falling a stroke behind with one hole left in the playoff. A bad nine holes certainly doesn’t diminish her power and poise. In fact, coming back and winning despite a collapse of that magnitude should actually enhance the impression we have of the best golfer to ever come out of Thailand. It was no surprise that Ariya Jutanugarn was holding the trophy as the light faded Sunday afternoon at Shoal Creek, but the three hours leading up to the moment certainly was.

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

MOTHER NATURE MAKES A COMEBACK AT THE 73RD U.S. WOMEN'S OPEN

2018-06-02T09:48:00.001-05:00

Shoal Creek, Alabama: Mother Nature decided the match wasn’t quite over, making another run at the U.S. Women’s Open Friday afternoon. Play was suspended at 2:27 p.m., just before the final groups of the afternoon wave teed off, because of dangerous weather conditions, primarily due to lightning in the area. Three hours and 49 minutes later at 6:16 p.m., with darkness looming, players returned to the course and made it to 7:20 p.m. before play was suspended once again due to weather. With sunset at 7:50 p.m., it was doubtful, given the cloudy conditions, that the players would have

had enough light to play much longer. There was little or no rain that fell during the initial suspension, so officials had hoped to begin play at Saturday at 6:45 a.m. with 78 players still on the course. This is where Mother Nature decided to try to even the match, dumping just short of an inch of rain on the course overnight and delaying the start of play until 7:45 a.m.

Despite the weather delays, there were some highlights of round two. First round co-leader Sarah Jane Smith of Australia birdied six holes in an 11 hole stretch to get to 11-under par and take a six-shot lead on Ariya Jutanugarn, who was in the afternoon wave. Smith eventually cooled off, playing her final six holes in one-over par to finish at 10 under par for the tournament, the same total she was able to post for the back nine. “I think the side sets up nice for a fade and there’s been a few pins tucked on the right side of greens and that’s made it a little easier for me to get at them, I think,” the leader remarked after her round. Smith’s caddie also happens to be her husband. “We’re experienced together. He knows me better than anyone on the course and off, probably. So I think it’s just a comfort level that comes with that.” Smith has been on tour since 2006 and has yet to record a victory. Her best finish in a major were a pair of ties for second at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship in 2010 and 2017. This is her seventh U.S. Women’s Open and she’s only made one cut, when she finished in a tie for 46th in 2013. Her 2018 season has been disappointing, with six made cuts in 13 tournaments and a highest finish of just a tie for 26th at the Kia Classic. To categorize her hot start as a surprise would be a vast understatement.

Ariya Jutanugarn’s presence on the leaderboard is no surprise, as she’s coming off a victory at Kingsmill, her eighth win on the LPGA Tour, including a major title in the 2017 RICOH Women’s British Open. Her record in the U.S. Women’s Open isn’t nearly as impressive, with only one made cut in five appearances. Jutanugarn birdied her first hole and stood at six-under when play was halted Friday evening, putting her in a tie with Su-Hyun Oh, another Australian who completed play in the early groups. No one else was better than three-under par for the tournament, with only Jutanugarn among the late starters in the top ten.

In other news, there was a somewhat premature announcement that Brittany Lincicome will be competing in the PGA Tour’s Barbasol Championship, July 19 - 22 in Lexington, Kentucky. Lincicome will be playing on a sponsor’s exemption in the event held opposite The Open Championship. “I love competing with the guys. I feel like I step up my game when I play with them. I always thought it would be cool to try,” the two-time major champion commented following her round on Friday. “I just got a text from my agent. We weren’t going to announce it until Monday, so I don’t think anyone knows.” Well, that all changed in a big way following her quick appearance before the press. The seven time winner on the LPGA tour will join Annika Sorrenstam and Michele Wie as the only women to play in a PGA Tour event.

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

73rd U.S. WOMEN'S OPEN ONE UP ON MOTHER NATURE

2018-06-01T08:25:00.004-05:00

Shoal Creek, Alabama: In a golf match where Mother Nature took a big lead on the USGA in the opening holes, the staff and grounds crew scored a comeback and despite heavy rains earlier in the week inflicted by Tropical Storm Alberto, the U.S. Women’s Open started on time at 6:40 a.m. Thursday morning. Under cloudy skies, groups teed off on the first and tenth holes, and with the only rain in the forecast coming on Friday afternoon, it appears the tournament will end as expected on Sunday. The players are playing the ball as it lies, with the USGA choosing not to break with its tradition of never having held a round in any of its championships where they went with lift, clean and place rules. “Our intention is to rely on our considerable experience. We played 72 of these U.S. Women’s Opens, in fact, 117 U.S. Open Championships playing the ball as it lies, finishing the competition and so it’s our intention to do that this week as well,” commented John Bodenhamer, Sr.Managing Director of the USGA during an interview Tuesday afternoon. So far he’s been true to his word.

Lexi Thompson and Michelle Wie on the 8th green

I’m here at Shoal Creek to continue my coverage of U.S. professional golf. My first experience with the U.S. Women’s Open was as a nine year old wandering the fairways of The Cascade Course in Hot Springs, Virginia. That tournament boasted some of the pioneers of women’s golf, including Mickey Wright, Betsy Rawls, Louise Suggs and Patty Berg, who between them had 11 U.S. Women’s Open titles. The course was brutally difficult, with the winner posting a score of 10 over par 294 on the par 71 layout. It turned out to be an historic finish for Catherine Lacoste of France, still the only win by an amateur in the history of the event. I remember watching her joyfully running through the parking lot after her victory, back in the day when the players were much more accessible to the spectators than they are today. Former champions Betsy Rawls and Brittany Lang both came close as amateurs, finishing second, but neither matched the feat of Lacoste, from the famous alligator shirt company family.

Shoal Creek Clubhouse

Shoal Creek, which opened in 1977 and hosted the 1984 and 1990 PGA Championships, as well as U.S. Amateur in 1986 and the U.S. Junior Amateur in 2008, was the first solo design by Jack Nicklaus. It’s situated southeast of Birmingham and offers beautiful, rolling terrain, not unlike another of Nicklaus’ designs, Muirfield Village where the PGA Tour’s Memorial is taking place this week. Although the grounds of the course are wet, the fairways and greens themselves appear very playable. I watched several groups come through the par 4 eighth hole and didn’t see any mud on the balls. The putting surfaces, which have sub-air drying systems, are still firm. With the weather forecast of sunny conditions, light winds and no rain, it’s possible the course will get dryer and firmer as the weekend moves on.

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.

THE GREATS OF GOLF: NICKLAUS, PLAYER AND SORENSTAM COMMENT ON THE GAME

2018-05-07T16:00:00.000-05:00

The buzz around the grounds of The Woodlands Country Club indicated that some big names had made their way onto the property. Media members are accustomed to being around the top players in golf, but occasionally circumstances turn even the most seasoned reporters into fans. About 10:15 am on Saturday, Annika Sorenstam made her way into the media center, accompanied by son Will and husband Mike. The 10 time LPGA major championship winner was relaxed and cordially greeted the gathering of press members. Next, global golf ambassador Gary Player entered, dressed all in white and taking every opportunity to espouse exercise and a healthy lifestyle. Finally, the greatest of all time, Jack Nicklaus made his appearance and the trio were led to a table in front of the small interview room adjacent to the area housing the media . Sorenstam is the first woman to play in the 3M Greats of Golf, an exhibition following the second round of the PGA Tour Champions Insperity Invitational in The Woodlands, Texas. It features twelve past champions of the game, including seven

Jack Nicklaus, Annika Sorenstam and Gary Player

members of the World Golf Hall of Fame. Nicklaus, age 78, Player, 82 and Sorenstam, 47 covered a wide range of golf topics during a session that lasted just under 35 minutes. It began with Gary Player commenting on Sorenstam’s presence in the event. “I just think it’s wonderful that they decided to invite a woman to play. I’ve seen a lot of them play the last five years. I’ve been so impressed. They play so well.” The legendary global ambassador of golf’s remarks seemed apropos, considering that only 250 miles to the north, the Old American Golf Club in Colony, Texas was hosting the Volunteers of America LPGA Texas Classic.

Coincidentally, this month marks the fifteenth anniversary of Annika Sorenstam’s play at the PGA Tour’s (then) Bank of America Colonial, where she missed the cut, shooting 71 - 74 for a five over 145. The fact that she failed to qualify for the weekend really didn’t matter that much, as she had shown that she could compete at the highest level. Sorenstam reflected on the tournament. “I remember most of that week. Certainly it was the highlight of my career. It was at a time that I was at the peak of my career and I was looking for different motivators to take my game to a new level.” For the record, she always played at a high level. From 1995 - 2006, Sorenstam won ten major championships and was LPGA player of the year and money winner ten times. She retired following the 2008 season, making the announcement a couple of days after winning her 90th professional tournament. “At that time it was golf, golf, golf. Now my life is fulfilled with other things.”

Gary Player watched by Annika Sorenstam and her son Will

Jack Nicklaus at the seventh hole at the Woodlands

One of the things that I knew from prior comments by Jack Nicklaus, in particular, was that all three of the greats have a keen interest in making sure the game of golf is healthy and established for future growth. I asked the trio how we do that. Jack Nicklaus was the first to respond. “We've got to get out of the dark ages. The millennials are looking for instant gratification. When Gary and I used to play the British Open, we’d play in two hours and 25 minutes. Why can’t we play in two hours and 25 minutes?” The 18 time major championship winner went on to answer his own question. “The three things are, golf courses are too difficult, the game is too expensive and it takes too long. We need to do things to bring people into the game and keep them in the game. I think the USGA and the PGA of America are very aware of that and I think they’re working on things to try to get there. It just takes time.” Gary Player, the always outspoken career Grand Slam winner, chimed in next. “I think the ball is the biggest detriment to golf. We should keep the ball as it is for weekend golfers because the professionals are not important at all when you think about the game. For professional golfers, it’s becoming a joke. It’s becoming the ruination of golf.” He was referring to the distance the current golf ball travels relative to past versions. “The head of a golf ball company in this country says, ‘Oh, well, the guys are bigger and stronger today’. That’s nonsense.” Player went on to name a number of former players who were every bit as athletic as many of those playing today, referencing George Bayer, Mike Souchak, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer. “So that’s hogwash. The ball is just going too far.” Player’s solution? “Just cut the ball back fifty yards. The man who markets the best will still sell the most golf balls. I think the ball is the big problem.” Nicklaus then responded to Player’s comments. “The ball has always been the big problem. The ball is a contributing factor to all those other things. Gary’s absolutely dead right.”

Annika Sorenstam at the fifth hole of the Woodlands

Finally, Annika Sorenstam had a chance to give her take on the subject. “I think family is what we need to focus on. Growing the game within families, making clubs family friendly, kids friendly. It’s not just about introducing people to golf, how do we get them to stay in the game. I think that’s the biggest issue. You can do that by doing a little bit more, you have to modernize a few things.” It’s no surprise that a woman who retired from the pinnacle of golf to focus on her family would bring that perspective to the conversation. “There’s so many options for young kids and families, of course time is the essence, you don’t have time to be out there for four hours. Can you play three holes, six holes, nine holes? Can you build courses that are easier to walk around for families? Maybe make clubs not just for golf.” The World Golf Hall of Famer has a foundation that focuses on bringing young girls into the game of golf. “It’s not just about hitting seven irons or being good players. It’s much more than the game. What other game do you have someone in their seventies and eighties being here? That’s what the game of golf has to offer, it’s a game for life, so we need to get families in there. I still think there’s growth for women. I know there are women out there who can pick up the game. We can grow the game, there’s no doubt. I know there are initiatives out there and we've just got to keep on going. Address the difficulty, accessibility and the time.”

An hour later, the hoopla moved to the practice range, with the rest of the 3M Greats of Golf warming up for the 18 hole, scramble format event. The area was filled with interested media, including former players Lanny Wadkins, John Mahaffey, John Cook and Billy Ray Brown, all with the Golf Channel. Wadkins was giving Tom Weiskopf, who is coming off knee surgery, a driving

lesson. Fuzzy Zoeller was talking to just about anyone who would listen in between practice shots."I don't play five days in a row anymore", he remarked as he showed Billy Ray Brown a sore left hand
. Meanwhile, a PGA Tour staffer was trying to gather all participants for a group photograph. It

The 3M Greats of Golf

seemed as if the second round of the Insperity Invitational was secondary in importance. Finally, the 3M Greats of Golf began, with Fuzzy Zoeller, Charles Coody and Bill Rodgers leading off with the team of Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player and Annika Sorenstam the last to tee off. Zoeller's group started fast, with birdies on the first four holes and they held on to tie the group of Hale Irwin, Larry Nelson and Dave Stockton at 12 under par. After a slow start, the Nicklaus, Player and Sorenstam started making some birdies but finished at 10 under par, the same score as the team of Tony Jacklin, Tom Weiskopf and David Graham.

Hear my interview with legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg, where we discussed his agency, concussions, franchise relocation and philanthropy at http://thechtonsports.com/cold-hard-truth-sports-radio-show-1242017/

Also listen to our conversation with author and sports journalist Mike Carey, as we discussed his latest book "Bad News" about Marvin Barnes and reminisced about Mike's coverage of the Boston Celtics during their glory years with Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Danny Ainge and Robert Parish. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/golongmedia/2017/02/08/the-cold-hard-truth-on-sports-radio-show

Don't forget to check out my new book, "Offsetting Penalties - A PK Frazier Novel" at Amazon.com. Also check out www.thechtonsports.com for our podcasts and live broadcast on Tuesday's at 8:30 pm EST. I can also be reached via email at kevin@pkfrazier.com.