Where have you gone, Andy Van Slyke?

More Bad Teams

2008-07-24T17:54:00.000-04:00

After a series with the Astros, we're going back to PNC for a series against one of the few teams with a worse record than the Astros, the Padres. It's a good thing it's the Padres, too, because Yoslan Herrera is starting tonight and his WHIP is 3.84. That's not a typo. Herrera is actually allowing nearly 4 base runners an inning in his two starts with the Pirates. His problem has been well laid out just about everywhere; he's got good off-speed stuff that he's over-reliant upon, but he's over reliant upon it because his fastball is terrible. That's a catch-22 with absolutely no answer. Herrera is, quite simply, very bad and there's not anything that anyone can do to fix it.

Coonelly Speaks on Alvarez

2008-07-24T11:52:00.000-04:00

In the negotiations between the Pirates and Pedro Alvarez, it looks like the Pirates are blinking first by going forward with their frustrations with Alvarez and Scott Boras:

"I am frustrated that negotiations haven't concluded of yet," Coonelly said last night by phone from Pittsburgh. "We were very hopeful to have Pedro playing for one of the Pirates' affiliates by now. Other premier college players who signed early, like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria, have used the additional year of development as a stepping stone to get into majors within 10-12 months of being drafted, and we tried to work Pedro into that situation."

This is the first time I've felt even vaguely concerned about signing Alvarez, and it's not for obvious reasons. The Pirates have the money to sign Pedro Alvarez. That's not the question. The money for Alvarez is there. The Pirates also have to sign Pedro. There's no real question there. Even if they knock the trade deadline out of the ballpark, failing to sign Alvarez is going to be a huge failure in the eyes of the fan. Boras and Alvarez have Coonelly and Huntington over the coals on this one. I know, you know it, Boras knows it, and Coonelly should know it. Playing these kinds of games isn't going to get anyone anywhere.

Game 101: Pirates 8 Astros 7

2008-07-23T21:19:00.000-04:00

There's no better way to close out a delightfully weird series of bad baseball and wins against the Astros than with a horribly pitched nightmare of a game that saw Obi-Wan Mientkiewicz pulling in four hits for the first time since 1862 and the one and only Wreck Specs Osoria throwing two scoreless innings to stem the tide of the Astros' awful offense and pick up the win. If there was ever a series that took place entirely in the baseball twilight zone, this three-gamer against the Astros was certainly it. I would be encouraged, but the Astros are actually worse run than we are at this point, so rather than being encourage, I'm just happy to know we're better than someone.

Afternoon game

2008-07-23T13:23:00.000-04:00

It's getaway day in Houston as the Bucs and Astros are playing at 2:05 this afternoon with Ian Snell and Brian Moehler taking the mound. The Pirates have had an impressive ability to kick the crap out of the Astros this year, so hopefully they can continue that into this afternoon. This is Snell's fourth start since coming off of the disabled list and he hasn't really been all that impressive in any of them. If he's going to start turning the corner and earning the right to be insulted by me every fifth day, it's going to have to happen sooner rather than later. But hey, at least we'll all have something to do at work this afternoon.

Game 100: Pirates 8 Astros 2

2008-07-23T09:40:00.000-04:00

I think the Pirates have stumbled upon a new, foolproof plan for victory. The plan is simple; hit three home runs a night. The Pirates have tried that each of the last two games, and they've won both times. I don't know why no one's thought of this before, but it seems like a solid plan to me. Of course, that's always aided by a starter that only allows six base runners in eight innings. Paul Maholm has made some good starts against the Astros in the last two years and he made another good one against them last night. If you're keeping track, the formula is (home runs) + (good start) = win. Seems easy, right?

No more losing to Ed Wade

2008-07-22T19:24:00.000-04:00

After last night's fun win, the Pirates and Astros tee it up again at 8 tonight with Paul Maholm and Jack Cassel taking the mound. Today Ed Wade traded for Randy Wolf for no particular reason at all. I am in no way kidding when I say that as big of a disaster as the Pirates seem to us right now, the Astros are a trainwreck of epic proportions. Wade has this team headed down the dumpster so fast it's actually kind of mind blowing. Losing to them is no longer an option.

Your daily deadline update

2008-07-22T14:29:00.000-04:00

From Newsday:

Manuel has made it no secret he'd like to see general manager Omar Minaya pick up a big bat for the outfield. Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and even Xavier Nady are probably out of the Mets' reach, so he might have to "settle" for Seattle's Raul Ibañez or Cleveland's Casey Blake.

The Mets farm system isn't very good, so that sounds about right.

Meanwhile, everyone keeps saying the Yankees are interested in our outfielders. For some reason, people seem to be upset when Ian Kennedy is mentioned as a potential return. I know the Yankees have soured on the guy a bit and he had a rough stint with them this year, but he's only 23 and his minor league numbers (including his numbers at AAA this year) are sterling. And that's my two cents on that (sorry, very busy in lab today).

Game 99: Pirates 9 Astros 3

2008-07-22T09:55:00.000-04:00

What a weird, weird baseball game. John Van Benschoten and Runelvys Hernandez took part in some kind of bizarro, awful pitcher's duel in which both starters were terrible (both guys put 10 people on base, Hernandez in 5 and JVB in 5 and 1/3) but didn't give up a ton of runs. The bullpens then proceeded to shut the other teams down and the Pirates looked destined for a sixth straight uninspiring loss, thanks mostly to their sputtering offense. Then with one out in the ninth, the offense clicked to life on a Jason Bay solo home run (and I hate to bring this up, but how many huge hits does Bay have this year? I don't know off the top of my head, but I think the answer is "a lot"). Xavier Nady followed with a single and the red-hot Adam LaRoche hit a homer of his own. It all eventually ended with Freddy Sanchez's inside the park home run, which I think is like the millionth of the year in that goofy little bandbox in Houston. On the ninth inning, Ryan Doumit went 0/2 with a strikeout, the rest of the team went 6/7 with three home runs. What a weird inning to cap off a weird game.

Rated R for Excessive Violence

2008-07-21T19:15:00.000-04:00

I don't know what the Pirates did to the schedule makers, but they got quite the bum rap having to play on the road both the Thursday after the All-Star break and the following Monday. Being on the road and not getting days off is a great way for a team to fall into a tailspin. Another great way to fall into a tailspin is to give a start to John Van Benschoten smack in the middle of a 5-game losing streak. He's made three awful starts this year and there's no proof that #4 is going to be any different than the first three. The only thing he's got going for him is that he's facing Runelvys Hernandez, who's been just about as terrible as JVB this year and has even been lit up by the Pirates once. If you're planning on watching this one tonight, make sure you're in front of your TV for the first inning, because the fireworks are going to start early.

What to talk about?

2008-07-21T11:04:00.000-04:00

The season's in a tailspin, the players are frustrated, and Huntington and Coonelly are playing everything about the deadline pretty close to the vest. Is there anything worth talking about in Pirateland at the moment? Gorzelanny's latest AAA debacle? The lack of talk about Pedro Alvarez? The return of John Van Benschoten? This picture?

The weekend recap

2008-07-20T19:14:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the complete lack of posts since yesterday afternoon. Between the family picnic, meeting up with some friends, and flying back to NC, I really haven't had much time to be near a computer until right around now. Luckily, watching the Pirates would've done a nice job of ruining what was a fun weekend for me, so I don't feel too bad about having missed the games over the past two days. There's nothing that spoils a decent first half like a four-game losing streak to a bad team to start the second half. The Rockies stomped Yoslan Herrera yesterday and they kicked the ever-living crap out of Zach Duke today and suddenly we're 10 games below .500 and buried in last place in the Central with the third worst run differential in the National League. The sad thing is, I have a sinking feeling that things aren't going to get a whole lot better in the immediate future.

Things are not improving

2008-07-19T20:00:00.000-04:00

At a family reunion today, but Yoslan Herrera's taking the mound today at Coors Field. I've got a bad feeling about this.

Game 96: Rockies 5 Pirates 2

2008-07-19T11:40:00.000-04:00

I didn't see a whole lot of this game beyond the replay (which I didn't even know existed but discovered on FSP last night), but it looked like more of what we've seen from Snell since he's come off the disabled list, decent stuff with rough spots in his control that sabotage the outing. The problem with this game was that Glendon Rusch the Rockies pen mostly shut the Pirates down last night, leading to the loss. Not exactly a great start to the second half.

A potential shootout

2008-07-18T20:00:00.000-04:00

Ian Snell looks to keep moving past his arm trouble and back towards productiveness tonight against the Rockies, who are sending Glendon Rusch out against him. That's right. Glendon Rusche is still in baseball. If it seems like he's made a million starts against the Pirates in his career, it's because he has. He's faced us 24 times in 15 starts. He's also a guy we've beaten up pretty good on throughout his career (he's 2-7 with a 4.45 ERA against us). He's been terrible this year and we should probably beat up on him pretty well tonight. If Snell doesn't bring his A game (Ian Snell insult of the night: HEY, Ian ... do you even still HAVE an A game???) we could have a shootout on our hands tonight. Of course, I'm going to see The Dark Knight, so I won't see it either way.

Polls

2008-07-18T09:26:00.000-04:00

There's a new poll in the sidebar dealing with the trade deadline. It's a bit labyrinthine and SAT-like, but I'm curious where people are really at on this trade deadline stuff. You know the drill, vote on the right, talk in the comments.

Trading Weapon X

2008-07-18T09:21:00.001-04:00

I will admit that I'm often baffled by what to do with columns like this one that ran in the Post-Gazette a couple of days ago. After doing this blogging thing for three years, I've learned that getting worked up by little thing that's written about the Pirates in the media only leads to high blood pressure. Still, I can tell that this particular column by Smizik has lead to a lot of consternation among fans and I feel like ignoring it gives the impression that I agree with it. I don't agree with it. Signing Xavier Nady to an extension is one of the five worst ideas I've heard this year, and that's not limiting things to the Pirates. If the Pirates sign Xavier Nady to an extension, I'll probably quit this blog entirely and I'm not even close to kidding.

There's a number of reasons for that, but we can start at the top. Nady is 29 years old and having a career year. That's because that's what happens when players are 28 or 29; they peak. I'm slow to make this comparison because I've seen it made in about ten different places, but on a local level Kevin Young is a great example of what happens to a middle of the lineup guy with moderate power and on-base skills that are mostly tied up in batting average. The extension he signed was for his age 30-33 years. Oops. If we keep the comparison going, Nady's top comps by age on Baseball Reference are Leon Roberts, Craig Monroe, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Hal McRae. McRae kept hitting well deep into his 30s, but Roberts, Monroe, and Hammonds combined for one season with an OPS+ of above 100 after their 30th birthdays. Roberts was out of the league at 33, Monroe's struggling to hold on at 31, and Hammonds was done at 34. Players like Nady just don't have long, productive careers.

On top of that, it's easy to see where Nady's production this year is coming from. In the big leagues, he's a career .279 hitter with a .335 on-base percentage. This year, he's hitting .321 and his OBP is .377. All of his increase in production is tied up in that raise in batting average. A quick glance at his Hardball Times page shows that his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an almost impossibly high .351. He's hit more line drives this year, which is where some of the increase in average is coming from, but thinking he's hit a sustainable peak is fooling yourself. He's a decent hitter having a good year at his peak age, because that's what decent hitters do at their peak ages.

The entire rationale behind keeping Nady this winter was to get him to try and increase his trade value. He can't possibly increase his value more than he already has. He's got one more arbitration year, but it's almost impossible that he'll be worth more at this time in 2009 than he is right now given his career arc and the peripherals around his 2008 numbers. There are a million reasons to trade the guy now and we've gone over several of them in the past couple days. The pitching staff, even with Snell and Gorzelanny healthy and pitching well, is more than one or two pitchers away from being a good staff. The offense has been good, but is also a good candidate for a second half drop-off. The main chunk of this Pirates team is built around guys that are Nady's age and that are gone after 2009. People don't like to hear this, but what we're seeing from this team right now is probably their ceiling. I know there are people that will scoff at that statement, but it's something that I absolutely believe is true. Extending Nady and hoping to cobble together a pitching staff from fairy dust and rainbows to maybe make a run at .500 is exactly how the Pirates were run under their previous front offices and it's not something that I plan on sitting through again.

Game 95: Rockies 5 Pirates 3

2008-07-18T00:39:00.000-04:00

There's not much that's worse than watching a win unravel in front of your eyes (or ears, in my case, since I listened to this whole thing). The Pirates ran out to a 3 run lead in this game with Maholm cruising and Ubaldo Jiminez doing his best Ricky Vaughn impression, but things kind of shifted with the Rockies two runs in the fourth and you could feel it happen. Then the Rockies scored some more and we lost. I know that's not terribly in depth, but I didn't really catch a ton of this game and I don't really have any overwhelming desire to go back and catch up (forgive my apathy, I was in lab until almost midnight tonight).

In the Rockies

2008-07-17T20:37:00.000-04:00

The Pirates are one of the lucky few teams that only get a three day All-Star break this year, so they're opening up the second half tonight in Denver against the Rockies. This is a pretty unremarkable series in every single way; the Pirates and Rockies have similar records and are in similar situations with the Rox looking to deal Matt Holliday in the next two weeks. Paul Maholm and Ubaldo Jiminez have drawn the starts to kick off this four-game set. With our bullpen and the Rockies pitching, I'd imagine that the string of high school games that we were playing before the break is going to continue in the thin air.

Two links

2008-07-17T15:02:00.001-04:00

The first link I've got for today is some pretty sweet news for Pirate fans. You may recall at the end of last Friday's Q&A, Dejan made a remark about coming back next Friday with things being very different. Speculation was, of course, that he meant a trade was going down. He was instead referring quite literally to the Q&A, as he's launched the PBC Blog at the Post-Gazette to allow him center breaking news in one place, feature the Q&A, and point to important Pirate-related links around the interwebs. He's also got some incredibly nice things to say about WHYGAVS, which really means a lot to your humble blogger here. I read a lot of stuff by beat writers for FanHouse and Dejan's work is as informative and insightful as anyone's. His starting a blog can only increase the knowledge that's available to Pirate fans and that's a very good thing.

The second link is borne of the epic All-Star Game liveblog that Will Brinson and I did at FanHouse. He's put together the 2008 Super Hero All-Stars in anticipation of The Dark Knight.

Speaking of which, please remember to go out tomorrow and vote for Harvey Dent for Gotham City District Attorney. I BELIEVE IN HARVEY DENT.

Lincoln to Lynchburg

2008-07-17T11:18:00.000-04:00

This happened yesterday, but Brad Lincoln got the call up to Lynchburg yesterday. I'm guessing that the team had a set number of innings they wanted to see from him at Hickory and they moved him along once he hit that number. He pitched very well in his first few starts, but not so well since then (besides his Matt Capps-like control). The most logical reason for him to be moving up at this point is that as a top draft pick that's 23 years old, he simply doesn't belong in low-level Class A. He's either hit an inning number or convinced the Pirates that he's healthy, and so they're moving him along.

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved to AA before this season ends, even if he struggles at Lynchburg. Remember that in a draft that was pretty deep with pitching, Lincoln was regarded by a some people to be the best college pitching available that year and most prospect lists had him among the top two or three. He'd likely be in AAA if he hadn't gotten hurt, so maybe we should view his starts in the low minors as rehab starts and keep in mind that the Pirates are probably looking for things other than obvious results with Lincoln as they bring him along this year.

2008 Midseason Review: the Murky

2008-07-17T10:43:00.000-04:00

It's the All-Star Break, which I guess means it's time for me to do some kind of mid-season review, even though we're already well into the second half of the season. This year, I'm going to do three review posts and we'll call the "The Obvious" (or things from the first half that we all know), "The Obscure" (or things from the first half that I think I know and at least half of you will vehemently disagree with me on), and "The Murky" (or things that none of us know, but I will make a blind stab at figuring out). Today: The Obscure.

I slacked on this one yesterday because I was burnt out from the ridiculous All-Star Game liveblog that we ran at FanHouse until like 2 in the morning on Tuesday night. As is par for the course with the Pirates, the murky things are the most important.

Are the poor performances of Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny driven by poor health?
This is the big one. Watching the two of them pitch all year, I felt like Gorzo was the injured one and Snell was the one who was just pitching poorly. Then Snell went on the DL and Gorzo went to AAA, with Snell showing at least some sparks of hope after coming back. I still think it's worth noting that Gorzelanny's trip to AAA looks a lot more like a rehab stint than a demotion (he's made one start since being sent down on July 5th), but so long as the team plays it close to the vest, we're not going to know what's going on here. Neal Huntington's got his work cut out for him, but he's got a whole lot more work to do if no one can figure out what's wrong with Gorzo and Snell.

So ... this Neal Huntington guy ...
This deadline is huuuuge for him. He's certainly got to try to shop his pieces around, but he's also go to shed the reputation Dave Littlefield built for the Pirates by caving at noon on July 31st every year. If he trades Bay and Nady, people are going to be pissed. If he doesn't trade Bay and Nady, people are going to be pissed. We've watched him for almost a year now, and it's still impossible to know what kind of GM he's going to be. There have certainly been encouraging signs, but that's not enough. We'll know more in two weeks.

Why can't Adam LaRoche hit early in the season?
Too much golf? Not enough golf? Too much hunting? Not enough BP? Too much BP? Long, looping swing? My gut says that the answer lies in the last question there, but I'm no hitting coach. If someone can answer this, LaRoche suddenly goes from being a below average hitting first-baseman to an all-star caliber hitter. That's worthy of a Nobel Prize or something, in my book.

What mystical deity has Ryan Doumit been praying to in order to stay healthy?
Aw, crap. I jinxed him, didn't ?

Steve Pearce: flash in the pan or prospect?
He slugged .526 in June to give him an .844 OPS and things were looking up, but he's been down again in July despite a .319 average (only a .409 slugging percentage on the month, though in 22 ABs). It's not worth writing him off yet and I still think he deserves the first shot at the bigs in the event of an outfield trade, but it's discouraging to see a 25-year old hit like he
has in AAA.

How is the Pirates' offense scoring so many runs?
Last year: .263/.325/.411
This year: .262/.325/.416
Last year: 724 runs
This year: on pace to score 793
Ruh-roh.

Reports: Asking Price for Bay, Nady, Sky High

2008-07-16T16:34:00.000-04:00

Reports from all over the place are making it sound like Huntington's asking price for Jason Bay and Xavier Nady are in the neighborhood of two top prospects, with an additional prospect thrown in on the Bay deal. From Joel Sherman's blog at the New York Post (via MLB Trade Rumors):

Jason Bay/Xavier Nady, Pirates – Pittsburgh is demanding a big package: two premium prospects and a second-level prospect for Bay and two premium prospects for Nady. So far, no one is biting and Pittsburgh is not blinking. An executive from an interested team said, "I guarantee if the prices do not change, the Pirates are going to wake up on Aug. 1 with both players."

Buster Olney has a similar report on his blog (insider only).

Whether Huntington makes any moves this deadline or not, this is an incredibly important time for him. Part of Dave Littlefield's problem was that when he'd make a demand for a player in a trade, he had a terrible reputation for asking for the moon and accepting a handful of sand (see: "I DEMAND DAVID WRIGHT! What's that you say? No David Wright? Well, Ty Wigginton will do nicely, then"). What happens this deadline will help shape Huntington's reputation and his ability to deal with other GMs for the rest of his time in Pittsburgh. He's got valuable players. He knows he's got valuable players. Is he going to be unreasonable? Is he going to panic and cave? Is he going to be willing to negotiate and work out a deal? What's the answer to the question of life, the universe, and everything?

WHYGAVS/Bucs Dugout crossover: Dream Deals

2008-07-16T09:00:00.002-04:00

What's cooler than a cross-over? After doing some collaborations for various sites in the past, Charlie from the Bucs Dugout and I have decided to try and run a regularly irregular feature where we discuss and maybe even debate the Pirates. Today, as the trade deadline approaches, we talk about our dream trades for Neal Huntington and company and why they might or might not work. Keep in mind that this is almost entirely speculation on our part, and we're talking about what we want to see from the front office, not necessarily what the front office is going to do.

1. Jack Wilson to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp.

Bucs Dugout: There aren't many young hitters in the game as promising as Kemp, who hits for average and power, steals bases, and has a cannon for an arm. PECOTA compares Kemp to Chili Davis, Andre Dawson, Sammy Sosa, Ellis Burks, and Vlad Guerrero. Like Davis and Sosa in their youth, Kemp struggles to control the strike zone, but also like those two players, his other skills are so strong that he may learn to draw walks later in his career. If he does, he'll be amazing. He's far from a sure thing, but his upside is stratospheric. That the Pirates have a surplus of outfielders, and that they don't have a ready replacement for Wilson, shouldn't stop them--they should be acquiring all the high-end talent they can right now. They can shape it into a real ballclub later.

Kemp might be available because Dodgers GM Ned Colletti isn't the brightest bulb in the lot, has a meddlesome owner breathing down his neck, and is desperate to acquire a shortstop. Also, Kemp has been repeatedly and probably unfairly blamed for Los Angeles' inability to contend. The Dodgers are begging to have their pockets picked.

It's possible the Dodgers wouldn't want to trade Kemp not so much because they like him, but because they don't have enough reliable outfielders for their stretch run. In that case, the deal could be expanded to include Xavier Nady or even Jason Bay, perhaps for Kemp and a prospect. That's a lot to give up, but Kemp's worth it.

WHYGAVS: I like Kemp a lot. I was really excited when the prospect of him being included in some kind of trade for Jack Wilson popped up, no matter what kind of basis is behind it. The reasoning for that is Colletti. For years we've watched other GMs take advantage of Dave Littlefield's panic and for once, I feel like we're in the same position of power over someone else.

That being said, let me play devil's advocate here a bit with the idea of a Wilson AND Nady/Bay for Kemp deal. Let me frame it this way: we know Bay's going to be very valuable on the market this year and he should bring in a top prospect by himself. Nady will probably have a decent amount of value (not necessarily on the same level as Bay, but close). If you've got the chance to trade all three of these guys separately, say Wilson to the Dodgers for James McDonald and Andy LaRoche or Chin-Lung Hu, Nady to the D'Backs, and Jason Bay to the Rays for some of their impressive minor league talent, aren't three deals for young talent better than one or two when your system is as bare as the Pirates' is?

Bucs Dugout: Well, I did say Kemp and a prospect. But I take your point. The A's did well, for example, by getting a bunch of players from the Diamondbacks for Dan Haren. When you're trading for prospects, you can increase your chances of scoring simply by taking a lot of shots.

It depends on the players involved. If I were the Pirates I'd love to have McDonald or Hu in my system, but I'd be reluctant to restructure a couple of trades in order to get more players like that and fewer like Kemp.

2. Jason Bay to the Rays for David Price.

WHYGAVS: If we're trying to strike while the iron is hot, I'd be looking to Tampa when shopping Jason Bay. Shouldn't the goal here be Bay for David Price and whatever else we can get? I mean, Tampa's got tons of pitching both in the minors and on their roster and they can use hitting NOW. When you throw in that Bay's signed for next year, I think he's got to be one of the most valuable guys out there and the return for him should be huge. Now, I understand that Friedman's a smart guy and he's got a pretty clear vision of what he wants to do in Tampa, so maybe Price isn't a realistic return for Bay (or anyone, for that matter). Still, isn't this something we should be asking about? I guess we might not get Price, but there's always Reid Brignac, Jake McGee, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis ... geez, I could go on forever with the Rays' farm system.

Bucs Dugout: I seriously doubt the Rays would give Price up, although it rarely hurts to ask, and I think you're right that the Pirates and Rays should be talking. Tampa has gotten good results so far from Eric Hinske in right field and Cliff Floyd at DH, but I think they're too smart to believe that standing pat with those guys is the right thing to do. Putting Bay in right and letting Hinske, Floyd and Jonny Gomes split time at DH would be a nice upgrade for them, for the rest of 2008 and for 2009 as well. Also, surely Tampa could build a heck of a PR campaign around a player named "Bay."

Even if Price isn't available--and Hellickson, whose numbers this year just jump off the page (83 strikeouts and five walks at Vero Beach? Yikes), might not be either--the Pirates and Rays would be a good match because of the Rays' surplus of pitching talent. McGee and Davis, who have both been mildly disappointing in their transitions to AA, might be good buy-low candidates.

3. Xavier Nady to the Yankees for Austin Jackson and Dellin Betances.

Bucs Dugout: Let me begin by saying that, although the Yanks are reportedly interested in Nady, I have no idea what they'd be willing to give up. This is pure speculation. I think this would be a good haul for the Pirates, though, despite the excellent season Nady is having. Jackson is a toolsy centerfielder with a good performance record. He has probably been a minor disappointment in Class AA this year, but he's still only 21, and there's little to dislike. I'm including Betances here not only because he's interested, but because I'm positive that if the Yankees and Pirates have serious talks about Nady, Huntington will ask about Betances. He's only 20, he throws hard, he's enormous (6'8", 245), and... wait for it... he has control problems. If he can iron those out and avoid injury, he'll be ridiculous. Those are big ifs, but remember: right now, it's all about upside.

This may be a bit much to ask for Nady, who Pat and I both had all but dismissed last offseason, but Yankees fans would do well to check his numbers before sharpening their pitchforks--he's got 37 extra-base hits and a 138 OPS+ right now.

WHYGAVS: Ahh, Nady. We come back to him time and time again and he's been great this year, no doubt, but I wonder how many GMs really believe he's a different hitter based on a good first half. I mean, you four seasons worth of evidence and now that the guy's 29 he's suddenly going to "get it?" I mean, maybe he is but that .351 BABIP is awfully suspicious to me. That said, the Yankees are a great fit for him because Cashman has to be on the brink of getting fired by Hank the Terrible and guys like Jackson and Betances seem like they'd be a good return for Nady.

4. Damaso Marte for...?

WHYGAVS: I'm honestly not sure I have a fourth trade to put down here, other than to say that I hope that Huntington is actively shopping Marte. Everyone seems to be interested in Brian Fuentes and George Sherrill and Marte is definitely better than both of them. If I were him, I'd be pressing John Mozeliak hard in St. Louis. He's a new GM who's suddenly found himself in a pennant race and their bullpen is AWFUL, as we saw this weekend. He might be someone that can be forced into a panic deal with the Cardinals and Cubs arming up for the playoffs. I suspect he's smarter than that, but Wayne Krivsky looked like a good GM for almost six months in Cincy, so who knows? If we can't make a trade for him, offering him arbitration and taking the draft picks is a great fall-back plan, especially for a reliever, but I hope Huntington is exploring all his options here.

Bucs Dugout: Me too, and I certainly would shop Marte, but I don't think the Cardinals have a whole lot to offer, except Colby Rasmus, who they'd have to be crazy to deal for a reliever. I would be happy to just let Marte finish the year as a Pirate and collect some draft picks for him. He's likely to be a Type A free agent, and Damaso Marte and a couple million bucks for two top draft choices sounds like a very good deal to me.

In fact, if I were in charge of a team with a terrible farm system like the Pirates', I might investigate the possibility of collecting relievers just to flip them for draft picks. The rules say that the free agent types are based on performance relative to position, so a good reliever relative to other relievers returns the same draft picks as a good starter relative to other starters. Since a good starter is far more valuable than a good reliever, that's a big loophole.

WHYGAVS: I've never looked at it that way before, but that's an interesting plan. It's why the Xavier Nady deal was really a fleecing, because in addition to giving up Perez and Hernandez for one player, we lost the two picks that Hernandez represented when he became a free agent the ensuing winter.

All-Star Game open thread

2008-07-15T19:00:00.000-04:00

Hey did you guys know the All-Star Game is tonight?!? And it's at Yankee Stadium?!?

There's going to be a FanHouse live blog/chat tonight, which I may be helping out with a bit (though I'm taking the night off from actually running it, that was a freaking ordeal), but you can feel free to leave comments/talk about the game here and I should be in and out checking it. Oh, and I have something cool to post in the morning, so keep an eye out for that.

2008 Midseason Review: The Obscure

2008-07-15T11:46:00.001-04:00

It's the All-Star Break, which I guess means it's time for me to do some kind of mid-season review, even though we're already well into the second half of the season. This year, I'm going to do three review posts and we'll call the "The Obvious" (or things from the first half that we all know), "The Obscure" (or things from the first half that I think I know and at least half of you will vehemently disagree with me on), and "The Murky" (or things that none of us know, but I will make a blind stab at figuring out). Today: The Obscure.

Adam LaRoche is not nearly as bad as he seems
I know this is not a terribly popular opinion, but it's true. In May this year, LaRoche hit .257/.328/.476. It's not fantastic, but it's serviceable. Since June 14th, he's hit .349/.430/.651, which isn't fantastic, it's MVP-calibur. That leaves us with April and the first half of June in which he didn't hit at all. Last year at the All-Star break he was hitting .239/.324/.439 at the break last year, he's hitting .251/.330/.434 this year.

LaRoche's problem is similar to the one that Jason Bay had a couple years ago. Bay's problem was that his swing is effortless and when he's not hitting it looks like he doesn't care. LaRoche's problem is that his swing is so big that when he's not hitting, it looks like he's never going to hit again. He's not a great first baseman by any means and he's not the savior of the franchise that Dave Littlefield thought he would be, but most of us knew that before the trade even happened. He's just not a guy worth getting worked up over.

Freddy Sanchez is incredibly unlucky
I should've linked to this almost a month ago, but if you check The Hardball Times, you'll see that Freddy Sanchez's batted ball data (LD%, GB%, FB%) is almost identical to his batted ball data from last year, making his huge drop in production kind of insane. Matskralc runs the numbers and you can check them out on his site, but expecting Freddy to hit well (EDIT: well for Freddy, meaning like a .760 OPS with a .300 average or so) in the second half isn't unreasonable.

Tyler Yates is a time bomb
This isn't even that obscure, but if you watch the Pirates broadcast this year and look strictly at ERA, you might accidentally get the impression that Tyler Yates is a good reliever. Good relievers don't walk 33 batters in 47 and 2/3 innings, especially when the have 33 strikeouts, and the certainly don't have a WHIP of almost 1.60. Get ready for this to become a nightmare in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell are not the only things keeping us from a .500 season
The statement, "This team would be in contention if they had a mediocre pitching staff," is a true one. It's also incredibly misleading. Last year, with Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny pitching very well, the Pirates gave up 846 runs. This is a ton of run and it landed them third to last in the National League. The Pirates pitching staff in 2007 was nowhere near mediocre. It sucked. This year, the bullpen probably worse (I haven't run the numbers so don't hold me to that), but Gorzo and Snell are struggling and the fifth starter spot has been even more disastrous than last year. This year the Pirates' staff on pace to give up in the neighborhood of 900 runs (incidentally, Gorzo and Snell are on pace for a VORP almost exactly 50 runs worse than last year). The offense, for all of its improvement, is on pace to score slightly less than 800 runs. If the offense scores 790 runs and the pitching staff gives up 850, we're still a bad baseball team. The point is simply this: we're miles away from a good pitching staff and having Gorzo and Snell fix themselves is only part of the puzzle.