To answer the question, I've pulled in all of the PitchFX data for games that Duke pitched at PNC Park in the past two seasons. There are some questions about park effect on PitchFX (I don't think they effected my Ohlendorf study that much, but that's a longer story), so this is the best way to neutralize that. And since Duke threw 1433 pitches at PNC last year and 874 there this year, I think we should still have plenty of data to look at.

For starters, Duke was made 15 starts at PNC last year. He went 4-8 with a 4.89 ERA, 4.7 K/9 (48 Ks in 92 innings), and his K/BB was 1.85. This year, he's made nine starts at PNC, and he's 6-3 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Interestingly, his strikeouts at home are down to 4.3/9, but his K/BB has improved to 2.58. Clearly, he's doing something better this year. Again, we'll go after the jump to try and find out what it is.

]]> whygavs@gmail.com (Pat Lackey) frontpage Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:39:00 +0000 http://www.whygavs.com/20090714442/pittsburgh-pirates/july-2009/zach-duke-pitchfx.html http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/blogspot/yclr/~3/vM_n4KEgIDs/brandon-moss-and-garrett-jones.html http://www.whygavs.com/20090713441/pittsburgh-pirates/july-2009/brandon-moss-and-garrett-jones.html I had hoped to do some sort of mid-season post today, but I'm having a bit of writer's block about it and may move it to Wednesday, because tomorrow will be Zach Duke day. I also think that writing a post about Brandon Moss and Garrett Jones might serve as a mid-season review; the fact that we're talking about these two guys should indicate where we're at as a baseball team right now.

After a decent run by Lastings Milledge in the GCL and a nice (powerless, but nice) start to his stint in Indy, I've got a feeling that we're going to be down to one open outfield slot sooner rather than later. Unless Adam LaRoche is traded in the near future, and he's not making that task look easy, we're probably going to be down to Jones and Moss for the starting right field spot. This, as I've said, is already an indictment of the team. Moss is probably on what I like to call the, "Nice Player" career track. He's very solid defensively and his bat isn't awful. He's not likely to ever be more than a fourth or fifth outfielder, but I'm guessing he'll have a job for a while because of his good glove and decent bat. Jones, meanwhile, is a never-was who didn't post a Triple-A OPS over .800 until his third full go-round there, but has shown nice pop, something the Pirates sorely lack, in both Indy and his short stint with the Pirates.

If it does come down to the two of them for a playing spot, I have a feeling that the public sentiment is going to be leaning towards Jones. You don't have to look any further than Dejan Kovacevic's mid-season review to find that sentiment:

Bottom position player: Perhaps no player in Major League Baseball has done less with a starting opportunity than Brandon Moss, who did not record his second RBI until May.

I won't argue that Moss has been disappointing this year and I won't argue that he's been our worst position player (though I could), but it's a ridiculous statement to say that no player has done less with a starting job. Using Moss's 237 PAs as a baseline, there are 27 players that have done less than him at the plate this year, including guys who, like Moss, are trying to get established in the big leagues like Chris Davis and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Chase Headley, another such player, just barely ranks above Moss. Since May 12th, he's actually hit.306/.359/.470. He's still only got 3 homers in that span, but I still think that's reasonably productive.

Jones, on the other hand, has a career .312 OBP in the minor leagues and is 28. I know that John Russell and a lot of people that watched him play in the spring are impressed with his swing, but those sort of numbers just scream to me that he's a quad-A guy that three or four years from now, I'm going to be watching him play for someone's Triple-A squad in Durham and laughing about when he was a Pirate. Moss is still only 25 with good minor league credentials and he's shown both this year and last year that he can hit big league pitching for extended stretches.

Neither Jones nor Moss strikes me as a player that's going to be a long-term starter in the big leagues, but if either one of the two is going to do it, it's almost certainly going to be Brandon Moss.

Congrats to Zach Duke. He's certainly earned his All-Star berth with his work this year, even if he's got to have one of the worst overall career resumes of any pitcher to make the team. Hopefully, he'll keep pitching well enough that this doesn't become a punchline in future years. I'm starting to compile the PitchFX data now so that hopefully over the break I'll be able to do a post or two on Duke and what's made the difference for him this year.

Talk about it? Do I want to talk about it? Talk about what? Wasting TEN EXTRA BASE HITS? Wasting THREE HOME RUNS? SEVEN RUNS SCORED? An AMAZING play by Jack Wilson? Do I want to talk about Matt Stairs hitting Matt Capps' fifth pitch of the inning way over the right field fence and Capps still somehow being out there TWENTY-EIGHT PITCHES LATER TO BLOW THE GAME, despite only recording one out in that span?

I do not want to talk about it.

I also wanted to note Brandon Moss's home run off of Lidge. He CRUSHED a foul ball, worked the count a bit and fouled off a two-strike slider, then crushed another ball, this time in fair territory. It was a great at-bat against a good pitcher in a huge situation for Moss, and it's exactly why people like me haven't given up on him being a late-bloomer. He's hitting .306/.359/.470 since May 12th. We certainly don't have any other great options at this point.

Final point from the game last night; check out the pitch sequence from Delwyn Young's game-ending pinch-hit strikeout (clipped from MLB's GameDay of last night's game):

Keeping in mind that pitches four (a fastball, so basically the same pitch as 3 slightly less outside) and five (a slider) were called strikes, this is a great illustration of how an umpire working with a pitcher's reputation in mind can affect the outcome of an at-bat.

OK, that recap took longer than I wanted it to, but I do want to end with a word about Jonathan Sanchez. Everyone had fun joking last night about how the Pirates had reportedly turned down a straight up Sanchez for Sanchez trade earlier this week, only to see Jonathan Sanchez go out and throw a no-hitter, but seriously, one great game against a crappy team doesn't really change Sanchez's inherent value. How many times in 2005 or 2006 did Oliver Perez seem close to "getting" it again? I'm not trying to knock Sanchez's performance last night; he was spectacular (he struck out 11 and only a Juan Uribe error in the eighth inning kept it from being a perfect game), the game was exciting (Aaron Rowand crashed into the center field fence to make a great catch for the second out of the ninth), and it was touching (his dad had made his first trip from Puerto Rico to see him pitch and was practically in tears after the last strikeout; Sanchez himself was so emotional that I'm fairly sure he gave half of his post-game interview in Spanish). That being said, he's got to do a little more before it can be said that it's "clicked" for him, I think.

And as a final note, any chance that might possibly inflict Rob Dibble or Bob Costas on me at any moment in time is just too big of a risk to flip on, no matter how good the rest of its programming might be.

As previously mentioned, Ryan Doumit is back tonight and it's Robinzon Diaz who's been asked to pack his bags for Indy for the time being. Freddy Sanchez is also back in the lineup, so we actually sort of resemble a Major League ballclub tonight (though Garrett Jones is still batting third). Zach Duke takes the mound against Joe Blanton, so I'm going to jinx the crap out of us and say if we're going to win one game in this series, it's going to be tonight.

Meanwhile, DK has a writeup of six Latin American signings the Pirates announced today. I don't know anything about any of these guys; I think they're pretty under the radar names. I mean, one is from Honduras, which sports Gerald Young as their only big leaguer. And no, no word on Sano yet.

Heading in the direction of the minor leagues, DK's look at the international composition of the GCL Pirates is a must read. The part about Chris Aure's tattoo had me laughing out loud last night.

Tim at B.U.C.C.O. Fans has a great look at last year's State College debacle, what may have caused it, and how those pitchers are faring this year.

Speaking of State College, comp pick Victor Black made a very nice start for them last night and has looked good in two outings so far. I just got an e-mail from a reader telling me his fastball topped out at 96 last night.

Moving up a level, can anyone remember the last time a Pirate minor league affiliate had as many interesting and legitimate prospects as the West Virginia Power? They've got Rudy Owens (10-1, 1.79 ERA, hasn't allowed a run since June 6th), Tony Sanchez (10 hits in his first 26 at-bats with three doubles, three walks, and two strikeouts), Starling Marte (one of Rene Gayo's signings, 20 years old, 18-for-47 in his first 12 games), Quinton Miller (one of last year's above-slot signings who's held his own in two starts, especially considering he won't be 20 until November), and Robbie Grossman (I'm still quite impressed with his .371 OBP and 40(!) walks in about 220 PAs, especially for a 19-year-old), plus guys like Calvin Anderson and Quincy Latimore (who are at least intersting, if not legitimate prospects at this point). It's like they're a real minor league affiliate of a well-run baseball team!