tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37201336326462868492024-11-08T07:38:03.502-08:00Market Trends, Stocks, Commodities, Dow Theory and The Big PictureUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger456125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-35473665632762460422018-04-08T21:41:00.002-07:002018-04-08T21:41:29.075-07:00

In my estimation, it's anyone's guess. And that's what I bet you will hear from every newsletter and analyst out there. You will hear good reasons why the market must crash, and good reasons why it can't crash. The sum of it is that no one knows for sure, but everyone has an opinion. So what I'm waiting for is confirmation of a new intermediate trend low in both DJI and DJT. If and when

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-15999576969959424842018-01-06T09:20:00.000-08:002018-01-06T09:20:01.783-08:00

Source: Phobiawiki If you've been avoiding the financial markets or investing in risky assets because "that's the only thing you can make money on these days", I hope you take this post to heart. Should we be "Terrified" as the Dow breaks 25,000? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/dow-25000-investors-should-be-terrified-about-dow-25000-analyst-says.html The answer, I believe right now is No

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-23416092535895776852017-11-08T18:51:00.000-08:002017-11-08T18:51:01.023-08:00

If you had invested EVERYTHING into the S&P 500, based on Dow Theory analysis and reinvested all of the dividends, you would be sitting on a 21.99% annualized return. For long term investors, this is spectacular. Most long term investors want an average return of 10%. 12% is considered excellent over the long term. So consider that next year or the year after will see some movement into a

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-40449103676042216642017-10-18T09:17:00.001-07:002017-10-18T09:17:44.265-07:00

The best investment advice of 2017 didn't come from a newsletter, the financial times, CNN, or MSN money. It came to you right here:Stay invested in the broad markets. They will keep hitting new highs until something materially changes. We can maybe expect some profit taking as things get overbought, but both indexes have confirmed the primary trend as UP. Until this changes, the primary

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-76728660256698715152017-09-29T11:53:00.005-07:002017-09-29T11:53:49.472-07:00

In my ongoing, unofficial (and good natured on my part ... because it's the only part) rivalry with Casey Research, their constant advice to sell your stocks, invest in gold and bury said gold in the back yard has turned up, well, basically to be the worst investment advice of the last 5 years. Back in 2011, I nearly went "all-in" on gold and gold stocks because of the advice I was seeing

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-88759128392915522652017-08-11T10:46:00.000-07:002017-08-11T10:48:34.715-07:00

Ah 1960s Batman. Is there any end to your hilarity? The answer, of course, is no. 😂 So this is the rally to watch like a Batman ... erm, like a hawk. The Dow Transportation index is surging up. If it breaks a new all time high, buy buy buy ☺ I suspect we will see some profit taking in this scenario, which will make a nice buying opportunity. I'm talking about buying the S&P500, which

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-1819140922245377592017-08-07T16:27:00.003-07:002017-08-07T16:27:25.205-07:00

Once again, the financial news is more interested in making you scared, often in order to make you buy their services or watch their programs than giving you real advice. https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/08/02/dow-discord-as-djia-flirts-with-22000-transports-send-an-ominous-signal/ https://etfdailynews.com/2017/08/05/transport-divergence-a-concern-for-dow-jones-industrial-average/ http:

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-73898089507216973472017-08-02T22:41:00.000-07:002017-08-02T22:41:20.391-07:00

The Dow is making new all time highs. After doing the same, the transportations retreated. Now watch to see if the transportations bounce back from the recent sell off to reach new all time high themselves. If they do not, it is a sign to start looking for ways to short the market in a timely way. In my case, it will mean take profits and/or shore up cash majorly in anticipation of a sigificant

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-22577403771025011422017-07-14T20:29:00.003-07:002017-08-02T22:35:19.574-07:00

Here are the problems with investment newsletters. #1 If they are too early on a call, they aren't early; they're wrong. Casey Research is one such newsletter organization that is way too early on their calls for a major market catastrophe. The numbers just don't add up yet. If you had been following their advice and got out of a chunk of your broad stock market positions a couple of years ago

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-11555099988594661372017-07-05T22:30:00.003-07:002017-07-05T22:35:23.776-07:00

Things just got interesting on the daily charts. The Transportations hit new all time highs, but so far the industrials aren't continuing to confirm (as of July 7, 2017). This type of divergent move is what I am looking for as a signal to start thinking about taking profits. But not immediately. There isn't enough data to fully support a thesis of a change in primary trend. For now, it's a

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-44160073284726298292017-06-27T19:15:00.001-07:002017-06-27T19:15:27.607-07:00

The Dow's recent surge to new all time highs was not confirmed by the Transportations, which missed it's mark this month. This means: buy the dip or simply hold. Since we are still in a secular bull market, it's best to invest lump sums at once. If you can't handle the fear that a bear market may be just around the corner (after all, isn't it always?), then use dollar cost averaging to quel

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-76265223725796802592017-06-18T22:48:00.000-07:002017-06-18T22:48:26.893-07:00

Nothing's been happening in stock market world other than creation of wealth for those who stay invested. Unless you are a day trader, in which case you are probably losing more money than you make under the guise of "all it takes is one big winner". Statistics are against day traders and stock pickers, which is why I am not one. Based on what I'm reading in various newsletters, the gravy

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-23960265128519477042017-05-04T20:07:00.001-07:002017-05-04T20:42:35.189-07:00

There are too many investment options out there, so I thought I'd take a step back to look at some excellent places you can park money. I also want to introduce a new way to think about risk tolerance. They keys to success in what I'm about to show you are: Make regular contributions (even if they are small) Invest according to your risk tolerance Average into the market if you have a

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-19229607533738115252017-05-02T22:18:00.000-07:002017-05-02T22:26:10.455-07:00

Here's the macro picture of Real Estate in Canada. In many parts of Canada housing has been white hot. The data is rather shocking from an investment standpoint. Let's take a look at some numbers. Canadian house sale prices on average, rose by 8.2% year over year. Two Story single family home prices alone rose by 21% Townhouse/row unit prices rose  by 17.9% One-story single family

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-87288554139405362062017-04-27T20:02:00.002-07:002017-04-27T20:02:27.506-07:00

Since the new primary bull market trend was confirmed, I have been watching several investment firms and newsletters. Many of the newsletters seem to be saying one thing: that the current trend must end soon. While the firms seem to be saying that gravy train will never end, but then are crying doom every time the market drops. It's insanity. For example, I used to follow Casey research

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-66843821489039322302017-04-01T12:35:00.001-07:002017-04-01T12:42:50.623-07:00

As of right now, the likelyhood of a full fledged bear market in US equities is minimal. Manufacturing going forward looks healthy in the US and China, and consumer confidence is high in the US. The Energy sector is also rebounding from a terrible bear market. Overall, there is a big sigh of relief happening across the developed world as fiscal policy and government decisions are increasingly

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-42516621512855734852017-02-03T10:45:00.000-08:002017-02-03T10:45:06.020-08:00

  Image source: www.bankers-anonymous.com I haven't made a single post since December 2015. Do you know why this is? Because of these numbers ... Dow Jones Transportation Average 52 Week high: 9,502.50 Dow Jones industrials 52 week high:  20,125.58 Both of these numbers are not just 52 week highs. They are all time highs. And both indexes are on the verge of breaking them

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-71278283876159263392016-12-20T21:15:00.001-08:002016-12-20T21:17:02.132-08:00

I haven't posted anything lately because, frankly there was nothing to write about. The markets whipsawed but now that we have simple indicators (52 week highs) for each index, unless you cannot read or are horribly mamed in an accident and need to have both eyes patched, you will be able to easily know when this bull market starts to unravel. Here is what to look for 1) the transportation index

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-24275270898439480732016-12-12T21:22:00.003-08:002016-12-12T21:23:19.273-08:00

In a word, stay the course and watch the weekly closes of the indexes. Over the past two years, the Dow Jones industrials and S&P 500 have been in a bear market (kind of ... more below). But recently, they started hitting new all time highs over and over again. The Dow Transportations stopped confirming the new all time highs being made by the Industrials a full two years ago. The

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-67526469804139573502016-12-07T13:23:00.001-08:002016-12-07T13:23:30.775-08:00

Here are a couple more scenarios that could unfold in the near future. #1 The Dow could fall to it's last reversal level, which was 17888.28 and the Transportations could fall to 8018.55 before reversing course and heading higher again. #2 The Transportations could make new all time highs, which would then signal the continuation of the bull market we're already in. #3 The Dow could

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-7318279536756216632016-12-06T20:37:00.003-08:002016-12-06T20:39:25.044-08:00

It's funny how the relationship between the Dow Jones Industrials and the Dow Jones Transportation indexes can mirror what I'm already seeing. You see, I do quite a bit of research even though my posts are short. After I've completed my research, I look at the Dow relationship and I am often surprised that this one index relationship mirrors what I've been concluding based on my research.

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-34516581734549369772016-12-05T15:49:00.001-08:002016-12-05T15:49:22.915-08:00

Check them out, and enjoy! https://goldavalanche.blogspot.ca/p/blog-page.html

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-20375279545375487762016-12-05T14:15:00.002-08:002016-12-05T14:15:16.652-08:00

It looks like things are going to turn out exactly as I said they would. Italy's "No" vote will be the beginning of a euphoria for US stocks. Keep in mind, I said "looks like" not "is" ... Those blasted Transportation stocks are just refusing to make new all time highs. Until they do, keep calm and carry on. And if they do, back up the truck cause it's going to be an awesome ride.

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-29420495225232194532016-12-04T16:37:00.001-08:002016-12-05T14:17:07.525-08:00

Italy indeed voted "No" to the constitutional changes being proposed by the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. What are the implications? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/matteo-renzis-future-in-the-balance-amid-high-turnout-in-italy-referendum It is now with extreme interest that I will be digging through information to figure out the investing implications. I will also be watching

Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3720133632646286849.post-70229669367039743802016-12-02T10:39:00.000-08:002016-12-05T14:19:54.281-08:00

It's true. What happens in Europe can and will affect North America, just like what happens in North American can and does affect Europe. During the financial Crisis of 2008, Iceland's three major privately owned banks went bankrupt because of exposure to the US housing market via investment products that had bad subprime loans packaged in with other assets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com