Forex Beginner

USD-JPY Technical Analysis 24 January 2012

2012-01-24T09:10:00.000+08:00

The USD-JPY is hitting the rock bottom, currently position at the new low 76.911 still there is no sign of reversal or correction. However the candlestick chart is already showing sign of weakness to move further downwards. At this point i believe there will be no more major bearish breakout as the traders fear the unexpected. Even if there is major breakout it should be fake :).

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 21 January 2012

2012-01-21T11:27:00.000+08:00

The bearish trend is currently taking a short weekly break as it already reaches the intermediate resistance level at 1.3863. An ideal correction point should lies at the previous historical level 1.3314 before continue to ride further downwards. The prospective of next week trade should be focusing on bullish intermediate. We will wait and see what happens next.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 14 January 2012

2012-01-14T18:11:00.001+08:00

As discussed last year September 2011, the EUR-USD is going for a long period of downtrend and here it is today at 1.2681. The total point drops from the last highest position was as much as 2316 pips. It would be a lot more than that if it is added up with the support/resistant re-tracement points. At its current position the pair is still long way downwards, but there might be small scale corrections along the way. We will wait and see, the final target should be reaching the historical level 1.1725 (Year 2005).

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 12 September 2011

2011-09-12T20:36:00.002+08:00

The long-term perspective for EUR-USD is obviously heading downtrend as the war in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria now about to finish and also economic condition in the US improving. All these factors will help the EUR-USD acceleration downtrend. Apart from that the inevitable of economic cycle is now favoring the US Dollar more than Euro and Pound Sterling.

Long-term Technical Analysis - 23 May 2011

2011-05-22T23:22:00.000+08:00

Currency: EUR-USD
Long-Term Trend: Downtrend
Current position: 1.4154
Fibocci Retracement: 23.6% reached/ level 1.4258
Expected Retracement Point: 38.2%/ level 1.4388
Fundamental Perspective: US Economy is improving and more jobs creation signal the strength of currency is gaining momentum. However the Oil Prices might hinder this development.

Currency: GBP-USD
Long-Term Trend: Sideway
Current Position: 1.6242
Fibonacci Retracement: 38.2%
Expected retracement point: 50% /Level 1.7311

Currency: USD-JPY
Long-term Trend: Downtrend
Current position: 81.684
Fibonacci Retracement Expectation: 23.6% / Level 87.650

EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 20 May 2011

2011-05-20T23:17:00.001+08:00

The EUR-USD bearish signal perspective is indicated by the declining sideway trend of the chart. This downtrend may take months or event years to progress until the previous support level at 1.1762 and it is shown on the monthly time frame chart of the EUR-USD.

The sign of US economy keeps on improving, as there are more jobs. The implication of this will strengthen the US dollars and may add up to the acceleration effect of the EUR-USD downtrend momentum. We will see what happens in a couple of months time from now.

The Importance of chart formation observation - head and shoulder.

2011-02-26T09:58:00.001+08:00

Most forex beginners may not aware of the importance of chart formation. It is because it is not so obvious to observe from the live daily chart. However for the experience traders they always watch out for this kind of key structure, because it brings the biggest impact to the currency market movement.

In this example let's take the head and shoulder chart formation which frequently occur in daily trading. Let's observe closely how much impact the head and shoulder formation on the chart movement.

Even though the formation is not always so obvious to see, but the experience traders always notice this kind of patterns. And of course the impact is more effective if combine with technical indicators signal (i.e. MACD, Stochastic) that support the condition.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 24 February 2011

2011-02-24T22:19:00.000+08:00

The EUR-USD seems to be going up trying to reach 1.4280 resistant level again. It could be a dummy test that could duped everyone into a trap. It's very dangerous as bearish strength still 80% underway. Any act of buying is consider unwise decision.

Forex Daily Technical Analysis - 15 February 2011

2011-02-15T12:17:00.001+08:00

EUR-USD (4 Hourly Time Frame)

The long-term direction of EUR-USD is downward, but let's take a look at the short-term movement within 1 hour time frame.

MACD = Up
Stochastic = Up
Bollinger Band = Upper Band Line
Fibonacci Retracement = 23.6% current position
Candlestick Chart Pattern = Weakening

Summary: The best possible retracement is 38.2% at 1.3550 and the highest maximum retracement upward up to 61.8% at 1.3625

GBP-USD (4 Hourly Time Frame)

MACD = Up
Stochastic = Up
Bollinger Band = Middle Band Line
Fibonacci Retracement = 61.8%

Summary: Retracement at 61.8% downward has already been reach and all MACD and Stochastic are pointing upward. And also the Bollinger Band only prematurely stop in the middle line. That means the GBP-USD is bullish in the short-term.

USD-JPY (4 Hourly Time Frame)

MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Upper Band Line
Fibonacci Retracement = 23.6%

Summary: Retracement at 23.6% (83.092) is not enough. MACD and Stochastic both heading downward support further correction at least 38.2% (82.750). If further correction down then maximum is 61.8% (82.250)

USD-CHF (4 Hourly Time Frame)

MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Upper Band Line
Fibonacci Retracement = 23.6% (0.96890)

Summary: Retracement down to 38.2% (0.9600) is possible as all MACD and Stochastic support the condition.

EUR-GBP Technical Analysis - 14 February 2011

2011-02-14T12:10:00.000+08:00

There is seems to be strong resistant for the EUR-GBP pair to move down, even though the MACD is already on the downward direction. But the situation is never to be underestimated because it can happen drastically at any unexpected moment. Let's see the EUR-GBP in technical point of view in the long-term trend in monthly time frame.

Chart Trend = Gradual movement downward indicating that the trend is building momentum for drastic fall downward.
MACD = Pointing downward, supporting the trend to fall further.
Stochastic = Pointing upward, maintaining the short-term resistant for the pair not to fall too quickly.
Overbought = The previous overbought position at 0.9500 re-enforce the need for correction downside.

If the above condition failed to materialize and the resistance is able to defend itself until MACD switch direction upside. Then the shift of power to Bullish might be more imminent.

GBP-USD Technical Analysis - 14 February 2011

2011-02-14T11:30:00.001+08:00

Despite of all the technical indicators are heading upside, i still feel that the GBP-USD situation is very tricky. However let's consider that the cable pair is moving along with its indicator's signal. This chart analysis is taken from the long-term Monthly time frame chart.

MACD = Moving Upward - indicate strong bullish in the long run
Stochastic = Moving Upward - indicate strong bullish is gaining momentum
Chart formation = W shape or head and shoulder - indicate strong bullish
Oversold = The cable was oversold, which provide the need for a re-tracement at least up to 1.7500 level.

On the other hand there is still a strong indication that continuation for GBP-USD might be possible. That is my psychological point of view because the big trader might want to fool the rookie traders

EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 13 February 2011

2011-02-13T11:08:00.000+08:00

An obvious formation of Head and Shoulder chart pattern, indicate that the long-term direction for EUR-USD is heading toward down turn. This chart is taken from weekly time frame.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 10 December 2010

2010-12-10T22:04:00.000+08:00

Obviously in the long-run the EUR-USD is heading towards down-trend as indicated by MACD and stochastic in the Monthly and Weekly time frame. However in the intermediate and short-term trading the condition is very tricky. This is a position where indecision mind always take place. And of course it's also a place for the big traders to play game with the smaller traders.

Time and again this kind of position proved to be fatal for the smaller and inexperience traders. Understanding that the direction always move following the MACD and Stochastic, but actually this is a place of no decision. Despite of the indicator's direction anything can happen here either the chart will move up or down will be based purely on the crowds decision. If you are unlucky and not able to detect where the crowds are heading to, then you will be at lost or if you are lucky otherwise.

Just never play the game :). Stay put and wait, or else the game will play you.

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Gold Price and AUD-USD correlation analysis

2010-12-06T20:12:00.000+08:00

Strong correlation between gold price and the Australian Dollar may give us the clue of the long-term direction of the AUD-USD. As you can see the ever increasing price of Gold, maintaining the bullish strength of Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD-USD). Perhaps this condition could continue for many more years to come if demand for Gold is never fade away. As a result strong possibility that the AUD-USD pair maybe going for the overbought condition. We will see this in few months to come.

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GBP-USD Technical Analysis - 06 December 2010

2010-12-06T17:40:00.000+08:00

The cable pair is poised to move up higher to 61.8% Fibonacci line if there is no interference from the daily economic data from the UK and Euro zone. This expectation also backed by MACD and Stochastic in the 4 Hourly time frame that is still moving inline upside direction. See candlestick chart below

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AUD-USD | USD-CAD Fundamental Analysis - 07 December 2010

2010-12-06T02:14:00.001+08:00

Monday 07 December 2010 economic calender consist market components that might trigger the movement of the AUD-USD and USD-CAD pairs.

AUD-USD Fibonacci range from 100% to 0% provide a strong indication that the pair might be experiencing side-way trend in the long-term. The stability of Gold value in today's market should give the Australian Dollar strong backing to maintain its value even if the US dollar might be heading towards bullish trend against the Britain's Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Euro.

Residing at 0% Fibonacci line USD-CAD is signaling a big bullish trend waiting ahead for the long-term period.

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EUR-GBP Technical Analysis - 06 December 2010

2010-12-06T01:37:00.001+08:00

EUR-GBP long-term perspective still uncertain as MACD and stochastic are moving in contra-direction against each other. MACD is heading downward while stochastic is upward, maintaining the strong balance of power between the bullish and bearish traders at 50% Fibonacci support resistant level.

However since MACD is dominant over the stochastic, the trend movement should favor down side in the long-run. Fibonacci analysis shows that the ideal place for downfall should reside somewhere at 61.8% Fibonacci line see chart below.

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EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 06 December 2010

2010-12-06T01:16:00.001+08:00

Intra day trend of the EUR-USD is moving upward with the expected ideal target range up to the red line (middle of the bollinger band's line) as shown on the chart below.
In the intermediate-term perspective the pair is moving sideways gradually paving the way for the long-term down trend.
Therefore in the long-term expectation the EUR-USD should be going for long period of downtrend as the triangle is getting to completion.

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EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 04 December 2010

2010-12-04T11:54:00.000+08:00

At this moment the EUR-USD trend movement is somehow not very much predictable as MACD and Stochastic refuse to move in line. This is a place where traders usually got trapped.

Weekly chart: MACD and Stochastic not yet moving inline

4 Hourly chart: MACD and stochastic not yet moving inline

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OANDA Trading Platform sucks!!

2010-09-21T12:10:00.000+08:00

I joined the broker almost a year now, in the early days it was fine and everything run smoothly on the trading platform. But ever since they upgraded it to the new JAVA, problem started to come. In the first place i didn't mind about it cause i thought it was temporary technical issues.

Now i starting to get sick and tired of the problem because it seems OANDA does not give a damn about it. Nothing has improved and the platform keep on slows down and disconnected till now. So i have decided to withdraw my deposit and looking for other brokers now.

If OANDA ever improve again someday perhaps i am considering to rejoin them, but for now it's just really bad. Two weeks i have not open any trade position because the platform it like freeze off whenever i log into it then disconnected again. It happens every log in sessions.

OANDA need to clean up the mess on its trading platform. Not only me complaining about this issue, just read what others say about it on OANDA forum itself OANDA usability sucks

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GBP-USD Correction - 10 August 2010

2010-08-10T13:09:00.001+08:00

At last the long awaited correction for GBP-USD has taken place silently yesterday after the US market open. The continuation of this correction should be progressing today and the ideal target is at the 1.5682 level in the middle line of the Bollinger band indicator. Depending on the market situation, if there is further correction then 1.5525 level is the target limit.

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GBP-USD Calm Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll Data

2010-08-06T19:24:00.001+08:00

Ahead of non-farm payroll data GBP-USD movement is very calm. The market is rallying down towards correction after strong overbought position last week and this week.

The big surprise is yet to be unleashed because anything can happen after the Non-Farm Payroll data. Despite of the strong initiation towards correction, upside continuation is not impossible either as there is so big room for it.

Based on Fibonacci analysis there is 50:50 chances for correction and also continuation and that will depends on what the sentiment of the market today. If correction is to happen then 100% Fibonacci retracement on daily time frame should be hit. On the opposite if the continuation goes through then it will be going up all the way to 161.8% at position level 1.6420.

We will see where the major crowds will bring us today.!

GBP-USD Technical Analysis - 01 August 2010

2010-08-01T15:08:00.001+08:00

I have done GBP-USD technical analysis last week and it seems the uptrend is still moving on without significant correction. I was expecting at to retrace at least down to 1.5467 previous support level but it didn't happen. Well anyway forex is unpredictable, the more you are so precise the more you are losing it.

This is technical analysis for the entire month of August: From technical point of view the trend is growing strong now as the MACD and Stochastic in monthly time frame have synchronized where both indicators are heading upward direction.

Daily Time Frame:
MACD: Up
Stochastic: Up
Bollinger Band: Upper band (overbought)
Summary: Possible correction might take place but you never know what the big traders think. If they choose to not to take profits the trend will continue. Just be cautious to have sell position because it's dangerous

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD: Up
Stochastic: Up
Bollinger Band: Top
Summary: Having the position on the top of the bollinger band the weekly time frame indicator also support correction for the GBP-USD. But then again its dangerous as the trend is growing stronger upward

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD: Up
Stochastic: Up
Bollinger Band: Middle
Summary: Both MACD and Stochastic Indicators have now synchronize upward direction. The power of bullish is recharging to become stronger. Standing at the middle of the bollinger band there is big room for upside until the upper band.

Fibonacci Analyis Monthly Time Frame: The most convincing uptrend indicator for GBP-USD is the fibonacci retracement. As you can see previous landing is 0% and 23.6% now it must go up to 61.8%.

GBP-USD Technical Analysis - 25 July 2010

2010-07-25T16:15:00.000+08:00

The bullish prospect of GBP-USD is very convincing with all technical indicators heading upward direction, there is almost a definite 99% that the pair will be going up for a long long time. This forecast is based on all the technical indicators that support bullish trend.

Daily Time Frame:
MACD = UP
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Top
Summary: Bullish direction but may retrace each time it reaching the upper line of the bollinger band

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD = UP
Stochastic = UP
Bollinger Band = Top
Summary = A significant bullish indication that might cause the band to break-out upwards direction

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD = UP
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Middle
Summary = A strong indication that the GBP-USD still have a big room for bullish to dominate. Most possible target 1.6689 in the longer term.

Fibonacci Monthly Time Frame:

This is the most convincing technical indicators to support all the rest that the bullish trend is initiating for long journey upwards direction. Currently standing at 50% Fibonacci re-tracement the cable pair is poised to target 61.8% and that is almost definite to happen.

Next week economic data support mostly the Euro Zone including the Britain. Therefore bullish trend is 99% definitely is charging.

Psychological Battle In Forex!!

2010-07-19T01:30:00.000+08:00

The frequency of repetitive fluctuation is so tempting and in fact it is the source of addiction to make you think making money in forex is easy and fast. It is so tempting that will create the desire to capture each and every single fluctuation in the lowest time frame such 5 minutes.

However the temptation is actually trap where you will lose the most money. Once you are engage into the fluctuation game, you will be in control of the big traders grip. They know exactly where you will lose your confident and close the position at least with some losses. So they will drag your position away with fake market movement that create losses. Once you have close it is time for them to reverse the course to the correct direction but you are already lose.

Tricks that big traders use to tempt traders into the trap:

1. Technical Indicators Direction
2. Fundamental Factors: Economic Data Release
3. The timing of economic data release

No matter what you do they always trick you day in day out. Beware of habits and take greater caution on fluctuation.