Tossing Horseshoes

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Sat, 22 Dec 2012 13:54:00 +0000

Last Week: 1-4
Season: 44-36 (55%)

My dear readers, I would like to wish you a Merry Christmas and a safe and happy holidays. I appreciate the times we've had together in the past several weeks and I look forward to keep the good times going after the holidays.

Unfortunately, I will not be making any picks this week. I needed a week off to take my mind off of football and enjoy this festive time. I am headed to Detroit to watch the Lions vs. Falcons game tonight @ 8:30 pm. It's safe to say that I am excited about this. I have a little dilemma though for tonight. I own a Falcons jersey and a New Era Falcons hat and I am not sure whether I should wear them at the game or not. This is only my 3rd NFL game, I heard fans can get pretty nasty sometimes to opposing fans.

I hope you enjoy the break and tell your loved ones that you love them. That's it for me for this week, hope to see you back here next week.

Happy Winnings,

@omie_g

Week 15 Tossing Horseshoes: Land Down Under

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Fri, 14 Dec 2012 09:02:00 +0000

Last Week: 3-3
Season: 43-32 (57%)

G'Day mates, last week, I held a contest to celebrate my readers outside of the US and Canada by honoring my largest audience beyond those regions. It is with great pleasure that I announce the winner of the contest: Australia! Lots of other countries battled hard but the Aussies prevailed. I will use some Australian slang this week, so if you fail to comprehend something, feel free to ask. Thank you to everyone who participated.

Here is a little something for you from my dear friend and graphic designer Jordan Karkoulas. (@JordanKarkoulas) It's an Ace! Let us know if you like the poster.

Australia; so much culture and beauty to offer

And here's my favorite songs I associate with Australia, Land Down Under by Men at Work

When you go 1-4 one week and get humbled like I did, you actually feel grateful for a 3-3 week. The results could have been better (Texans, Patriots 'Under') or worse, (Redskins not covering) so I will accept the outcome and work to improve them this week. Seems like donkey's years since I've had a big winning week so a reversal of fortune is due. Let's make some bikkies this week!

Jets +1.5 @ Titans

Fact: The teams the NY Jets have beaten this season have a combined record of 31-46-1. The teams the Jets have lost to have a combined record of 50-27. The Jets have only lost to one sub 500 team this year, the Dolphins. Conclusion: the Jets have prayed against the weak and have been roughhoused by the powerful. Fortunately for the Jets, the Tennessee Titans are anything but powerful. With a 4-9 ATS record, they hardly instill fear on their opponent. Conversely, the Jets have played well on the road with a 4-2 ATS record away from MetLife.

Titans have been inefficient on offense averaging 15.9 yards per point. When you rush for 44 yards in 19 carries against the porous Colts D, you know something is not right. The Titans have been hit by the injury bug on their O line and Chris Johnson has been erratic.

Jake Locker has looked ordinary so far in his young career with a 9/9 TD/INT ratio and a QB rating of 76.2. Locker has a tough match up against the Jets pass D allowing 6.3 YPA and a 54.2 completion rate to opposing QBs, top five in the NFL respectively. The Jets secondary won’t allow Locker to get in a rhythm and will curtail Titans’ drives.

Mark Sanchez has played uninspiring football this season and he is clearly not a franchise QB. If provided protection however, he will have mild success against the Titans secondary conceding 7.2 passing YPA. Sanchez has a whopping 19 giveaways so far this season, so the key for him will be to protect the ball and let his defense give him good field position.

In terms of numbers, I don’t see a glaring advantage for either team. However, the trends are clearly in favor of the Jets; Jets are 6-0 ATS, 5-1 SU in their past 6 vs. the Titans. The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their past 5 road games. The Titans are 1-6 ATS past 7 December games. In this spot, I’ll take the desperate team making a final push for the playoffs over the miserable Titans.

Packers -3 @ Bears

The Packers were able to weather the storm (pun intended) and gain steam in the second half of their previous game. They will continue to build on this momentum this week against the reeling Bears losing four of their past five games. The Packers were able to establish the running game last week combining to rush for 140 yards in 25 attempts. A stout running game lessens the load on Aaron Rodgers and makes the offense more varied. Additionally, the Bears have looked vulnerable against the run allowing a sloppy 5.2 rushing yards per attempt (YPA) over their past three games. The Bears are banged up on defense and they might be missing some key players for this game. Look for Rodgers to settle the running game early and go to the play action as the game wears on.

Although Jay Cutler did not finish last week's game, he should be ready to go this week. Looking at Cutler's numbers closely, Cutler has bullied bad teams while struggling against good ones. (Seattle being the lone exception) Unfortunately for Cutler, the Packers are getting healthier on defense and looked good last game. Sam Shields made an immediate impact picking off a Stafford pass in the red zone. The Packers pass defense is conceding an impressive 6.1 passing YPA over their past three games. Moreover, Clay Mathews has a chance to get back on the field this week, only making life more difficult for Cutler.

From WalterFootball, Jay Cutler is 29-49 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers is 21-10 ATS on the road as long as he's not favored by 6.5 or more points. The Packers are 11-3 ATS at Soldier Field since 1999.

Give me the surging team with a better QB and I'll take them straight to the bank!

Colts +9 @ Texans

Houston has played its last three games on the road and will now be playing on short rest. Although they will look to move past last week's embarrassing MNF loss to the Patriots, look for the Texans to start off a little flat. With TE Garrett Graham missing the game due to a concussion, the Texans were not as successful running the ball nor were they able to protect their QB. Graham's status for this week is still uncertain but the Texans will get ample opportunity to run the ball against a penetrable Colts defense conceding 4.7 rushing YPA.

According to TeamRankings, Indianapolis has had one of the lightest schedules in the NFL this year. Nevertheless, unlike many teams, the Colts have taken full advantage of their schedule and used the adversity they have faced to inspire them. Andrew Luck, a Houston native, is playing his first game in front of his hometown and will look to impress his friends and family. The last time the Texans faced a good scrambling QB, Jake Locker rushed for 38 yards. Andrew Luck, who is one of the smartest running QBs in the league, will be able to extend drives with his running ability and keep the Texans linebackers guessing.

Andre Luck will keep his team in the game against the Texans

According to Joe Freda at SBR Forum, the Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games following a MNF affair. This selection is more of a gut play than numbers. With such a large spread, the Colts can cover back door (with a late score) or keep the game close throughout. The Colts have Buckley's chance to win the game, but they will cover with the points.

Rams -2 vs. Vikings

The key for St. Louis to win this game will be to contain the spectacular Adrian Peterson. I learned the hard way last week (betting against the Vikings) that it is easier said than done. Unlike the Bears, the Rams are relatively healthy on defense and get a ton of pressure on the QB, 2nd in the NFL with 39 sacks. For two straight weeks, the Rams have shut a very good ground game. The Rams surrendered just 53 yards on 23 carries against Frank Gore and 51 yards on 16 carries to C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combined. The Rams will load the box with 8 defenders and force Christian Ponder to beat them. My assessment of Ponder has not changed since last week. He shows poor judgement on the field and makes costly errors.

Sam Bradford has shown flashes of talent, yet he has been highly inconsistent. With the emergence of Chris Givens, Bradford will finally have a potent one-two combo at WR when Danny Amendola returns from injury, possibly this week. However, Bradford does have a better QB rating (81.9) and passing YPA (6.7) than Christian Ponder. Here's a great stat I found on CHFF, teams that enter the game with a higher passer rating have a record of 108-54 in 2012, 35-9 since week 9. If you wonder which stats you should examine before handicapping, the passer rating is one of the better simple ones at predicting winners.

The Rams have played good football under the tutelage of Jeff Fisher and they are about to turn the corner as a franchise. With a 9-4 ATS record and playing at home, I'll put my faith and money on the Rams to stop Adrian Peterson and prevail in this game.

Steelers -1.5 @ Cowboys

The Steelers will look to put on a show in Dallas after their embarrassing effort last week against the Chargers. Dallas is returning home on a high after their impressive come from behind win in Cincinnati. This is a recipe for disaster for the Cowboys who are 0-6 ATS at home this season.

Although Ben Roethlerberger did not play a great game coming off his injury, he showed no ill effects rushing for 31 yards. Big Ben did not receive much help from his receivers when it mattered as there were too many drops in the early part of this game. Nevertheless, the Steelers offense will have a chance to be successful against a mediocre Cowboys D allowing 4.5 rushing YPA and 7.5 passing YPA, landing them both in the NFL's bottom 7 respectively. If Big Ben gets some protection, he will be able to torch this Dallas secondary.

As tough as I am on Tony Romo, he has played very well of late, amassing a 11/3 TD/INT ratio and a QB rating of 105.6 over his past six games. Romo has also been sacked 18 times during that span so the Steelers will be able to put some pressure on Romo. Despite all their injuries on defense, the Steelers are 2nd in the NFL allowing a miniscule 5.4 passing YPA. This is a battle Tony Romo is not expected to win. The proceeding will only get more difficult if Dez Bryant (fractured index finger) misses the game.

Tony Romo won't be in a good mood after the beating he will take against the Steelers

Demarco Murray has yet to discover his explosiveness returning from his injury three weeks ago. Since his return, Murray has rushed for 136 yards in 41 carries, averaging a measly 3.3 yards per carry. The Steelers also excel in stopping the run conceding 3.7 rushing YPA. Murray will be kept quiet on Sunday.

From WalterFootball, Mike Tomlin is 11-6 ATS coming off a loss as a favorite. Coach Tomlin will motivate his troops and you will see a focused effort from the Steelers. Conversely, the Cowboys are coached by Jason Garrett who manages to lose games he should win. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their past 7 December home games. My money is going on the team with a better track record in December and a knack to win clutch games.

Random WAG Photo:Kristin Cavallari (Jay Cutler's fiancee)

I look forward to your feedback and comments. Make sure to check out the comments section to see the interesting picks my friends and readers have posted here. My MNF pick will be added prior to the Sunday Night game. I will also add my additional plays and teasers in the comments section.

Thanks very much for reading. Good luck with your bets mates! Hooroo.

Happy Winnings,

@omie_g

Week 14 Tossing Horseshoes: International Love

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 12:26:00 +0000

Last Week: 1-4
Season: 40-29 (58%)

I just had my worst week of football handicapping so let's turn things around quickly. Following mediocre week 12 results, I made some minor adjustments to my handicapping methods and it did not yield the results I was expecting. I am returning to the process that brought me much success in the early parts of the season. I truly appreciate the support during these times.

As you may expect, my largest audience comes from the United States and Canada. But you may be surprised to hear that my third largest audience is from Australia with Mexico and New Zealand close behind. To celebrate the international flavor of my audience, I have decided to have a fun contest. I will dedicate next week's blog and its theme based on the country of my largest audience (outside of Canada and US) during this week. Share with your friends and pass the word and watch your country be represented in here. May the best country win :)

Patriots -4 vs. Texans

Both teams match up fairly evenly in this MNF tilt. The Patriots are scoring at a league best clip of 11.9 yards per point (YPP). The Texans trail nearby scoring at 13.2 YPP (4^th in the NFL). A reminder that a low number is best for offense, as the fewer yards the team needs to travel before scoring, the better.

However, you may be surprised to hear that the Patriots and the Texans are practically dead even on defense, in terms of YPP. The Patriots are conceding 17.6 YPP to the Texans 17.5 YPP, 7^th and 8^th in the NFL respectively. Therefore, no real edge can be found on defense between the teams in terms of YPP.

The Texans bread and butter on offense is their running game. They attempt a league high 34.4 rushing attempts per game as it helps Matt Schaub set up the potent play action pass. Nonetheless, despite all the passing yards the Pats surrender, they are quite adept at stopping the run allowing merely 3.9 rushing YPA. The Patriots will be able to restrict Arian Foster to a modest rushing total, making life more difficult for the rigid Matt Schaub.

From Oddshark.com, ‘The Texans are 0-4 ATS in their past 4 MNF games… The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their past 4 MNF games.’ Tom Brady and Bill Belichick thrive under the spotlight but the same cannot be said about Matt Schaub and the Texans. Another advantage for the Patriots, according to Jason Lake at SBR Forum ‘In special teams, the Pats are ranked #2 and the Texans #32’.

Give me the Patriots, and I'll give you the four points!

Texans, Patriots 'Under' 52.5

3 angles for taking the 'Under'

The weather forecast is predicting a 90% chance of precipitation in Foxboro from 8 pm to midnight. We all know that teams take a conservative approach on offense during inclement weather. Both teams will run more often to protect the ball, grinding down the game clock.
I get the sense that the Texans will emphasize their running game not only for the weather, but to also limit the Patriots time of possession on offense. The Giants used a similar ploy against the Redskins last week to limit RG3's firepower and the 'Under' cashed in comfortably. Look for a similar tactic from the Texans tonight.
From VegasInsider.com, the 'Under’ is posting a 27-14 (66%) record in games played under the lights this season. With an elevated total of 52, and the match up and weather conditions, I'm taking the 'Under'!

Eagles +8 @ Buccaneers

Coming off consecutive tough losses, look for the Buccaneers to be flat to start the game. Doug Martin seems to be fatiguing as he has rushed for a paltry 2.7 YPC (yards per carry) in his last two games. Martin has attempted 236 rushes, 3rd most in the NFL, which is taxing for any running back, let alone a rookie. The Eagles run defense has stepped up of late allowing only 3.9 rushing YPA (yards per attempt) in their last three games. The key for the Eagles D will be to limit big yardage plays.

Josh Freeman will not be restrained versus the Eagles secondary allowing 7.8 passing YPA with just 7 interceptions and 20 sacks. The Eagles have been torched by opposition QBs, allowing an average passer rating of 98.8 (28th in the NFL) against them. However, if the Eagles are able slow the 'Muscle Hamster', they will have better success against the pass.

Nick Foles will be on a mission to silence his critics on Sunday

Andy Reid has decided to stick with Nick Foles as his starting QB for the remainder of the season. Foles showed glimpses of promise last week, and the vote of confidence from his coach will do wonders for the rookie's self-esteem. Foles who threw for 251 yards with a QB rating of 96.6 in his last game against the Cowboys should be able to repeat his performance against a Buccaneers defense allowing 8.2 passing YPA (30th in the NFL).

The most intriguing factor in this match up will be Bryce Brown vs. the Bucs run defense. One of NFL's hottest rusher is facing the NFL's toughest run D, surrendering a league best 3.4 rushing YPA. Nevertheless, against two of the better RBs in the NFL, Alfred Morris and Adrian Peterson, the Bucs allowed 266 rushing yards in 36 attempts, averaging a whopping 7.8 YPA. Although I am not comparing Bryce Brown to those two, he has the skill set to be successful against the Buccaneers.

The coolest trend I encountered this week applies to the Eagles and Cardinals and comes from WalterFootball, "Underdogs that have lost five or more games in a row are 102-58 against the spread dating back to 1989, if they lost their previous game by eight points or fewer." Additionally, according to Oddshark.com, The Eagles are 10-2 ATS as dog of 8+ points since 1999'. Although I foresee the Buccaneers winning this contest, the Eagles offense will keep it close and cover.

Redskins -2.5 vs. Ravens

It's hard not to get excited by what Robert Griffin III is doing for the Redskins and the city of Washington. Ever since their bye week, the Redskins have won three straight games, beating two quality opponents in the process. During this streak, the offense has been flourishing averaging a mammoth 10.2 passing YPA and 5.4 rushing YPA, both top 3 in the NFL respectively. The return of Pierre Garcon has added another dimension to this offense led by RGIII. Terrell Suggs will likely miss the game with torn biceps, meaning more time and space for RGIII and Alfred Morris to work their magic.

Is there anyone in Football more exciting than RG3 at the moment?

Joe Flacco wants to be considered an elite QB but his numbers suggest otherwise. Flacco has notable home stats averaging a QB rating 100.7 with a 11/4 TD/INT ratio. On the other hand, Flacco's road numbers are downright ugly with a 70.2 QB rating and a 4/4 TD/INT ratio. Additionally, the Redskins pass defense has been much improved over their past three games conceding 6.2 passing YPA. With Flacco's road struggles, the Redskins defense will be able to focus their efforts on Ray Rice and reduce his effectiveness. Unfortunately for the Ravens, their inept offensive coordinator Cam Cameron still has not figured out how to properly utilize Ray Rice. It is inexcusable for a talent like Ray Rice to average only 16.5 rushing attempts per game.

Look for the Redskins to move the chains with ease on offense while restricting the Ravens offense and cover for the 4th straight week.

Bears -2.5 @ Vikings

The wheels seem to be coming off Christian Ponder and the Vikings. They have lost four of their past five games since their hot start. They get to play a motivated Bears team that usually plays them tough. The Bears are 6-0 SU and ATS vs. the Vikings over their past six meetings.

Despite Adrian Peterson's dominating play over his past five games, averaging a gigantic 8.1 YPC and 158.8 yards per game, the Vikings have scored only 19 PPG while conceding 28.2 PPG over that span. Christian Ponder has regressed since the start of the season and has a knack of making costly, untimely errors. The Vikings sorely miss Percy Harvin's play making abilities as their offense has become one dimensional. The Bears defense, which labors stopping the run allowing 4.5 rushing YPA, will set their sights on slowing Peterson and force Ponder to beat them. Unfortunately for Ponder, the Bears lead the league with 20 interceptions and despite last week's injuries to Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings, the Bears D will create havoc for Ponder.

Chicago has also been in a rut losing three of its past four games. Jay Cutler's injury clearly had something to do with it. Cutler has played very well since his return from injury, reestablishing the chemistry he has shown with Brandon Marshall. Look for this duo to strive against the Vikings secondary allowing 7.2 passing YPA over their past three games.

Expect the Bears D to force Ponder into making errors and Cutler and company to cease their opportunities and cover.

Cardinals +10.5 @ Seahawks

I am aware of Seattle's 5-0 ATS home record and I am certain that they are the superior team in this match up. However, the elevated spread makes the Cardinals a solid value selection.

According to Rotoworld.com, John Skelton will return as the Cardinals starting QB, a clear improvement over the woeful Ryan Lindley. Skelton has kept his team in majority of the games he started. Moreover, the suspension to Seahawks CB Brandon Browner will be a detriment to Seattle's secondary, making them slightly more vulnerable.

Arizona's defense has been one of their lone bright spots this season totaling 19 interceptions and 33 sacks, both top 8 in the NFL respectively. The Cardinals rank 4th in the NFL with 2.4 takeaways per game. Arizona's defense is adept in the red zone allowing opponents to score a touchdown at a lowly rate of 42%, 3rd in the NFL. They will put pressure on the Seahawks offense and they will not surrender any cheap points to a surging Russell Wilson and company.

The above mentioned trend, "Underdogs that have lost five or more games in a row are 102-58 against the spread dating back to 1989, if they lost their previous game by eight points or fewer", also applies to the Cardinals. In a divisional match up, the Cardinals will be able to keep it close enough to cover the large spread.

Larry Fitzgerald should be relieved to have John Skelton back as his starting QB.

I look forward to your feedback and comments. Make sure to check out the comments section to see the interesting picks my friends and readers have posted here. I will also add my additional plays and teasers in the comments section.

Thanks very much for reading. Good luck with your bets amigos!

Random WAG photo: Eric Decker's fiancee and country singer Jessie James

Happy Winnings,

@omie_g

Week 13 Tossing Horseshoes: Here Comes the Sun

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 07:39:00 +0000

Last Week: 2-5 (Including Thanksgiving Day games)
Season: 39-25 (61%)

How fitting is it that my worst week of the year comes directly after my 'No sure thing is sports' post? Let’s rid ourselves of all that negative energy and go into this week with a positive mindset and change our fortunes. I present to you a song that makes me smile even on the darkest days; Here Comes the Sun by The Beatles. Enjoy!

Texans -6 @ Titans

The Houston Texans were playing tired football leading up to their Thanksgiving Day game versus the Lions. Their fatigue was most noticeable on defense as the Texans allowed an average of 34 points over their past two games. Look for the extra rest coming into their Sunday game to rejuvenate a tired Texans squad. According to Oddsshark.com the "Texans are 6-2 ATS in the past 8 games vs the Titans." Moreover, the "Titans are 1-8 ATS in their past 9 games within division." The last time these two teams met at the end of September this year, the Texans won a laugher 38-14.

Statistically speaking, the Texans are superior in almost every single aspect of the game. On defense, the Texans allow 4.0 rushing YPA (yards per attempt) and 6.6 passing YPA, both top 10 in the NFL respectively. On the other hand, the Titans are allowing 4.3 rushing YPA and 7.8 passing YPA.

You may be surprised to hear that the Titans run at a more efficient clip of 4.7 YPA as opposed to the Texans' 4.2 YPA. Nonetheless, the Texans will take an early lead on Sunday, essentially eliminating the Titans' running game and Chris Johnson.

A team that struggles coming off the bye like the Titans did last week are poorly coached and disengaged. Consequently, OC Chris Palmer became the sacrificial lamb in Tennessee, getting fired following their loss against Jacksonville. The Texans will cease the moment and take advantage of an out of sorts Titans team.

Vikings, Packers 'OVER' 46.5

Aaron Rodgers will be in a celebratory mood against the Vikings defense

Aaron Rodgers will be looking to put last week's lopsided loss behind him by passing early and often. According to Oddsshark, the OVER is 7-2 in the past 9 Packers games as favorites of 8+ points. Simply put, Rodgers delivers when he's expected to do so. Greg Jennings is supposed to return on Sunday, adding yet another weapon to Rodgers' arsenal. Additionally, the Vikings have struggled on defense in their last 4 games, allowing an average of 29.5 PPG. (points per game) In that span, they have especially struggled against the pass conceding an average QB rating of 106.

The Packers' defense has lamented the losses of both Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. They have given up 25 PPG in their last 3 games and are now susceptible to long plays. Despite Christian Ponder's recent struggles, Adrian Peterson cannot be eliminated from the equation as he has reached the end zone in both of his previous two meetings with Green Bay. Look for AP to be a thorn on the Packers' side once again.

Bears -3.5 vs. Seahawks

Home field advantage means a great deal to both the Bears and the Seahawks when you examine their home records; 5-1 for the former and 5-0 for the latter. From Walter Football, the Seahawks are 2-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ points ppg, since 2007. The Bears are scoring 25.2 PPG thus far this season. While Russel Wilson's play on the road has improved of late, his home and away splits are less that ideal averaging 122 QB rating at home and a measly 75.5 on the road.

True home field advantage for both teams emerges on defense. Chicago has allowed 13.1 PPG at home as opposed to 19.2 PPG on the road. Similarly, Seattle has conceded 13.8 PPG at home versus 19.3 PPG on the road. According to Team Rankings Power Rating, Seattle drops from 1st to 28th in the NFL going from home to away. Conversely, Chicago drops only from 6th to 8th in the NFL in their home and away splits. Therefore, Seattle's success is heavily reliant on their home conditions whereas Chicago is more consistent all over. Against a team that struggles on the road, I have no qualms taking the dependable Bears at home as 3.5 point favorites.

Panthers -3 @ Chiefs

Don't be fooled by the Panthers 3-8 record, they are a better team in reality. They have had one of the toughest schedules in the NFL according to Team Rankings; their opponents combined season record this season is 63-47. Cam Newton may not be as good as he was last year, but he's still a potent QB in the NFL when motivated. The argument can be made that Newton has no reason to be motivated against a 1-10 Chiefs team. I would suggest that Newton will play to silence his critics in this winnable game. The Chiefs are allowing a horrid 8.3 passing YPA, (30th in the NFL) and Cam will throw the ball with ease.

A major part of this pick is about fading the Chiefs and Brady Quinn. The Chiefs have one of the worst passing games in the league and Quinn does not resemble a starting QB. Even in 3rd and short situations, the accuracy of Quinn or lack thereof, curtails drives. Chiefs only chance to win this game will be to heavily rely on the prowess of Jamal Charles. The Panthers have struggled to stop the run giving up 4.5 rushing YPA, (25th in the NFL) but will be prepared for Jamal Charles unline Bryce Brown, forcing Quinn to beat them through the air. I will bet on Cam Newton over Brady Quinn any day.

Cam Newton doing the Superman on Sunday, Over/Under: 2?

Patriots -7.5 @ Dolphins

This season, New England has played better on the road than at home. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS on the road as opposed to being just 2-3 ATS at home. Offensively, the Patriots have better numbers across the board than Miami. Tom Brady has been playing at a MVP level recently averaging a QB rating of 124 and a TD/INT ratio of 12/0 in his last 4 games. Look for Brady to be focused against a divisional foe on the road. According to Jeff Grant at SBRForum, the road team has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams. Even without Rob Gronkowski, the Pats have an abundance of firepower on offense and will not be slowed by the Dolphins D.

As expected from a rookie quarterback, Ryan Tannehill has been inconsistent this season. Over the past four games, Tannehill has plopped a stinky 3/6 TD/INT ratio with an ugly 68.3 QB Rating. The Patriots allow a large number of yards through the air, 7.9 YPA to be exact. But the addition of Aquib Talib has added another dimension to the Pats defense and the results are already on display as the Patriots have four interceptions over their past two games. Even with a smoking hot wife, Ryan Tannehill's confidence will be low facing the revamped Patriots D. Reggie Bush, Miami's biggest threat on offense, will be disregarded in the running game once the Patriots are off to an early lead. Even with a large spread, the circumstances point to the Patriots covering.

Even with smokin' hot wife Lauren Tannehill, Ryan Tannehill's confidence will be low come Sunday

I look forward to your feedback and comments. Make sure to check out the comments section to see the interesting picks my friends and readers have posted here. I often put my thoughts on the SNF and MNF games on the comments section as well.

Big shout to Norin (@norin_ondeck) for editing my blog. Follow him on twitter and check out his in game banter.

Thanks very much for reading and please be sure to follow my blog and share it with your pals. Good luck with your bets amigos!

Happy Winnings,

@omie_g

Week 12 Tossing Horseshoes: No Sure Thing in Sports

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Sat, 24 Nov 2012 00:35:00 +0000

This Week: 1-2
Last Week: 6-0 (Including the TNF game)
Season: 37-20 (65%)

The largest bet I made this year was, surprisingly, on a basketball game. The game was on November 7th when the Toronto Raptors visited the Dallas Mavericks. After comparing lots of advanced stats (in favor of Dallas), and considering other factors (Toronto's 4th game in 5th night, injury to Kyle Lowry), I took the Mavericks at -5.5 ATS. I was extremely confident about that pick. It made me feel even better when the line quickly moved up to -7 in favor of the Mavericks.

Dallas was in control from the start taking a 12 point lead at the end of the first quarter. They were up by 12 with about 8 minutes left in the game. They were close to putting the Raptors away on several occasions yet the Raptors refused to surrender and covered by half a point! I was absolutely devastated. I am sure you have some bad beat stories. Share them in the comments section.

This is what makes sports wagering so exciting yet so gut wrenching at times. This is just a reminder that if you tail my picks, please do so responsibly. We'll all be better for it.

Here's a South Park clip of Canadians interacting. I just want you to know that you are all my friends, buddies and guys :D

I am off to a slow start this week, going 1-2 on my Thanksgiving Day picks. I have realized that I am more adept picking ATS as opposed to totals. Rest assured, I will be making adjustments as I evolve as a prognosticator. Let's strike it rich friends!

Steelers -1.5 @ Browns

Even without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers were competitive last week against division leading Ravens. Charlie Batch, the 3rd string QB for the Steelers will be the started this week. Since 2010, Charlie Batch has won 3 of his 4 starts. Batch may not carry his team to victory on his own, but he will not lose it for them either. The duo of Jonathan Dwyer and Rashhard Menedhall will be asked to provide the bulk of the offense. The Browns have struggled stopping the run allowing 5 rushing touchdowns in their last 4 games.

On the other side, Brandon Weeden will be leading the Browns at home after a deflating loss to the Cowboys. As expected from a rookie QB, Weeden has had his ups and downs. It is however about to get a lot worse for Weeden. From Walter Football "Dick LeBeau (Steelers DC) is 17-1 SU vs. rookie quarterbacks" He will get looks against the Pittsburgh defense that he has not yet seen as a rookie. Pittsburgh D has allowed an average of 15 points per game in its last 5 games, including games vs. the Redskins, Giants and Ravens. The Steelers are allowing a league best 5.9 passing YPA (yards per attempt) and 3.8 rushing YPA, 5th in the NFL respectively. Even though Trent Richardson is too talented to be completely shut down, he will not have a stellar game this Sunday. This game will be dominated by the defense with Pittsburgh's D coming out on top.

Dick Lebeau is 17-1 SU against rookie QBs.

Titans -4 @ Jaguars

While I was researching the Jaguars last week before adding them as a late pick, I noticed that they were 4-0 ATS on the road and 0-5 ATS at home. I then decided that if the Jaguars played well against the Texans, I would fade them the following week at home. The Jaguars play well on the road thus diminishing the spread; then they get blown away at home and the spread inflates right back. This pattern will continue against the Titans.

Chris Johnson finally resembles the Chris Johnson of 2009. In his last 4 games, he has averaged 142.0 rushing YPG and 7.2 YPR. (yards per rush). Jacksonville has allowed a mediocre 4.2 rushing YPA and 14 rushing touchdowns (30th in NFL). Simply put, the Jaguars will not be able to slow CJ2K on Sunday.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Chad Henne and Jalen Parmele are starting on offense. A week ago, Chad Penne performed flawlessly and nearly upset the Texans on his own. It will be near impossible to repeat that performance even against a Titans secondary allowing 7.7 passing YPA (27th in NFL). The Titans are coming off the bye and they will be prepared to face Henne. Tennessee is clearly the superior team here and getting them at -4 is good value.

Rams +1.5 @ Cardinals

Prior to last week's game against the Jets, Sam Bradford was beginning to get on a roll averaging a QB rating of 91.7 in his previous 4 games. Sam Bradford must limit his turnover in order to give his team a chance to win. Bradford must be vigilant because the Cardinals are 4th in the NFL with 14 interceptions. Steven Jackson, who recently ran for over 100 yards against the 49ers, will be trusted to carry the load Sunday.

Getting the start at QB for the Cardinals is Ryan Lindley. He is starting because his O Line is atrocious and can't protect the QB, not because of merit. I hope he has a solid insurance plan because he's about to get thrashed. Last time these two teams met, Kevin Kolb was sacked 9 times. The Rams are 9th in NFL with 27 sacks and they rush the QB forcefully. Chris Beanie Wells is returning for the Cardinals but his potential has always been greater than his results. The Cardinals cannot score sufficiently with the personnel they have on offense. I will gladly take the Rams as underdogs.

This is what happened to Kevin Kolb last time the Rams played the Cardinals

Saints +1 vs. 49ers

I like the Saints this week for the same reasons that I liked them last week. After losing some very close games early on in the season, this team has shifted gears. Drew Brees is on fire, Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram are healthy, and the wide receivers are consistent. According to TeamRankings.com, the Saints are the most efficient team in the Red Zone, scoring a touchdown on 71% of their chances. Simply put, the Saints come out with 7 points on most occasions when they are in the Red Zone. Although the 49ers have some great defensive numbers, they are 16th in the NFL in Red Zone defense allowing a TD in 52.6% of occasions.

Colin Kaepernick was phenomenal a week ago. The Bears were surprised by how calm Kaepernick was under pressure. The Saints will be better prepared to face Kaepernick after watching his last start on tape. Frank Gore is silencing his critics who have questioned his durability this season. Gore is averaging 5.3 YPC (yards per carry) so the Saints need to emphasize stopping the run. The Saints allow a ton of yardage both against the run and pass. They allow 5.1 YPA against the run and 8.5 YPA against the pass, 31st and 32nd in the NFL in respective categories. However, the Saints D is competent in the Red Zone allowing a TD on 53% of occasions (17th in the NFL). The Saints D will continue to get enough stops to give themselves and their offense a chance to win. Give me the home underdogs Saints!

Drew Brees will look to lead his team past a strong 49ers defense

I look forward to your feedback and comments. Make sure to check out the comments section to see the interesting picks my friends and readers have posted here.

Thanks very much for reading and please be sure to follow my blog and share it with your friends. Good luck with your bets friends

@omie_g

Thanksgiving Day Special: Happy Thanksgiving!

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 07:38:00 +0000

Last Week: 6-0 (Including the TNF game)
Season: 37-20 (65%)

Happy Thanksgiving my American friends! Living in Canada, we celebrate Thanksgiving a little earlier, the second Monday of October. But that does not mean that I can't be in a festive mood and celebrate with my American friends.

I am thankful for my family and friends and their health. I am thankful for the employment I was just offered last week. Born in Bangladesh, I am thankful for the education and the lifestyle I can have living in Canada. I am also thankful for the many readers of this blog like you, there are so many things to be thankful for. What about you friends, what are you thankful for this year?

Holiday, Turkey and Football. It doesn't get much better!

Personally, Week 11 was a wild and successful one. My picks went 6-0 with a couple of very exciting finishes. Those games were mentally draining, but it was worth it in the end. Here are a few picks for the Thanksgiving Day games that will hopefully give us more reasons to be thankful. Let's strike it rich friends!

Lions +4.5 vs. Texans

The Texans have had two tough games in the past two weeks. They must now travel to Detroit on short rest and play an early afternoon game. After their taxing overtime win against the Jaguars, the Texans will be out of gas in this match up. Additionally, the Texans are 9-1 and this game is not as significant to them as it is for the 4-6 Lions. Although the Texans have combined to rush for 1367 yards, they have been inefficient running the ball averaging merely 3.9 rushing yards per attempt (YPA). Since the bye week, the Lions defense has been able to keep them in the game and they will do so against the Texans.

Detroit's performance on offense will depend on which Matthew Stafford shows up on Thursday as he has been wildly inconsistent this season. The only aspect of Stafford's game that has remained consistent is his inability to get his team out to a strong start. The Lions are involving Mikel Leshoure more prominently on offense. In his last 4 games, Leshoure is averaging 4.2 yards per rush (YPR) and has scored 4 touchdowns during that span. The Texans have been unable to to make up for the loss of defensive star Brian Cushing. Look for Mikel Leshoure to exploit a Texans defense that as been showing its holes.

I am aware that the Lions are 0-8 ATS on Thanksgiving Day games since 2004. However, this is a different Lions team from the Detroit teams of the mid 2000's.
Over 80% of bets are going in Houston's favor. Vegas needs a way to recover its losses and this is a prime opportunity. Don't let Vegas fool you in this match up.

The Lions are a desperate team looking to cease their opportunities at home

Texans, Lions 'UNDER' 51

According to Spreadapedia, the 'Under' is 6-3 in Thanksgiving Day games involving the Lions since 2003. Moreover, the 'Under' is 7-3 on TNF games this season. Teams come into their Thursday games with wear and tear, so they are not as explosive. Add to that, both teams have played a physically and emotionally draining games this past Sunday.

Both defenses are adequate. On the road, Houston is allowing a league best 179.8 passing yards and 77.0 rushing yards (2nd in NFL). On the other hand, Detroit is allowing 180.0 passing yards (3rd in NFL) and 108.0 rushing yards at home. Both offenses have dangerous weapons that can strike at any given moment. But like I mentioned above, inconsistency has plagued both offenses. Detroit has struggled to keep their passing game afloat and Houston haven't assumed their lauded rushing attack this year. The dynamic trends of this game indicate that it will be a fairly low scoring game. With a total as high as 51, I will gladly take the 'Under'.

Redskins, Cowboys 'UNDER' 48

Since 2004, the 'Under' is 5-3 in Thanksgiving Day games involving the Cowboys. From my research on Pro Football Hall of Fame, the average total points scored on this holiday involving the Cowboys since 2004 is a meager 41. The 'Under' is 4-1 in the Redskins last five games. The 'Under' is 3-2 in the Cowboys last five games.

RG III will once again be the focus of the Redskins offense. Contrary to their NFL rival Eagles, the Cowboys defense have earned their keep this season. The Cowboys are 10th in the NFL allowing 4.0 rushing YPA and they have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season which places them respectively in the Top 5.

The Redskins have their own concerns on defense, especially stopping the pass. Losing Safety Brandon Meriweather hurts the defense tremendously. Washington is allowing 7.5 passing YPA (23rd in NFL) and have allowed 20 passing touchdowns (27th in NFL). Fortunately for them, they are facing the mistake prone Tony Romo. On his day, Tony Romo can be one of the best QBs in the league but more often, one of the most turnover prone. Factoring the short week and the favorable betting trends, give me the 'Under'.

The Cowboys defense will look to impose their will on the Redskins

I look forward to your feedback and comments. Make sure to check out the comments section to see the interesting picks my friends and readers have posted here.

Big shout to Norin (@norin_ondeck) for editing my blog. Follow him on twitter and check out his in game banter.

Thanks very much for reading and please be sure to follow my blog and share it with your friends. Good luck with your bets friends.

Happy Winnings and Happy Thanksgiving,

@omie_g

Week 11 Tossing Horseshoes: The Road Warriors (with Recap)

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 08:11:00 +0000

This Week:1-0
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 32-20 (61%)

Growing up in the 1990's, I was a huge wrestling admirer whether it was the WWF or WCW. The peak of WCW and the start of the Attitude Era of WWF was some of the best entertainment on TV. I practiced wrestling moves at school and at home. I accidentally hurt some friends and even my sister and got hurt myself. I will always have a soft spot in my heart for wrestling. Just wanted to share that with you with this week's theme.

My favorite wrestler growing up was the Rock, even though it is a cliched choice. The Rock was as great a wrestler as he was an entertainer. Just check out The Rock insulting the NWO in the video above. Who is your favorite wrestler friends? Share in the comments section.

This week's blog title is The Road Warriors and you will see why. All of my spread selections are road teams. Although I try to avoid betting against home dogs, some of the lines this week seemed too tempting. Let's strike it rich!

The Fearsome duo of Hawk and Animal. My teams will play without fear on the road this week

Packers -3.5 @ Lions

Coming off the bye week, the Packers will be rejuvenated for this divisional match up. The injuries to Clay Mathews and Charles Woodson are a concern. But a certain MVP QB named Aaron Rodgers plays for the Packers. Rodgers was getting back into last year's groove, prior to the bye. In his last 4 games, Rodgers threw 15 touchdowns to 1 interception, averaging a QB rating of 121.5. His career numbers indoors are even more impressive averaging a QB rating of over 130 in the past 3 years. With Jordy Nelson's return and the injuries to Detroit's secondary, Aaron Rodgers will have a field day throwing the ball.

Will Aaron Rodgers be doing his Championship Belt celebration on Sunday?! You bet!

Green Bay is only allowing 4.0 yards per rush (YPR) so Mikel Leshoure will be kept under control. So far this season, in the first 3 quarters, Mathew Stafford has thrown 3 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. In 4th quarters, Stafford has thrown 8 touchdowns to 1 interception. Stafford and the Lions offense are very inconsistent until the 4th quarter. That will not work against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Packers will take an early lead in this one and won't relinquish it while the Lions play catch up.

Recap: Wow! The Packers did not play very well but still managed to cover. Many critics will call this a lucky cover and they are right to an extent. However, if Mason 'Chokeman' Crosby hadn't missed 2 field goals, the Packers were likely to cover more securely.

Buccaneers -2 @ Panthers

Coach Greg Schiano has brought his team closer and the Buccaneers are a united bunch. Since their bye, the Bucs have been playing with confidence and the results are showing. Doug Martin has been playing some superlative football of late. Despite the Panthers recent success stopping the run, they won't be completely shut down the talented Martin. If Josh Freeman can get the kind of protection he has been receiving all year, sacked only 13 times this season, Freeman will enjoy throwing against this Panthers D allowing 7.2 passing yards per attempt (YPA).

The Panthers offense has been struggling all season long. While their running game was a point of pride in previous years, it has only been average if that, this year. Cam Newton has also been dreadful throwing 8 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while only rushing for 4 touchdowns. Newton looks dejected and it is clear that he has a lot of growing up to do. Say what you will about the Bucs secondary allowing a grand 8.1 passing YPA. The Bucs are third in the NFL with 15 interceptions, 3 of those were pick sixes. Despite the Panthers playing better since their bye, they won't be able to keep up with the energetic Buccaneers.

Recap: Double WOW!! Next time I get very unlucky on #stacksheetsunday, I will reminisce about this game and feel better about my misfortunes then. With about 6 minutes left in this game, when the Panthers were leading by 11, I thought my 4 team parlay was over. All of a sudden, everything that could go right for the Bucs went right, and the Panthers revealed why they've only 2 games this season. The Bucs young players are growing up fast..
P.S. Isn't Captain Munnerlyn the best name is sports right now?

Browns +8 @ Cowboys

The Cowboys are only 14-13 in their new stadium and are 0-3 ATS this year. I have documented my theory here on why they struggle at home. Coming off the bye week, Trent Richardson will be raring to show what he's made of, in front of this grand stage we call The Cowboys Stadium. Dallas is allowing 7.5 passing YPA (23rd in NFL). And although Brandon Weeden has struggled in his last 2 games, he is a competent QB who will have some success on Sunday.

No real evidence of home field advantage in the new Cowboys Stadium

Whether you blame Jason Garrett's play calling, Tony Romo's decision making or Dez Bryant's route running, the Cowboys do a poor job of protecting the football. The Cowboys have 19 giveaways, 2nd worst in the NFC, (13 INT, 6 FUM) to 10 takeaways. The absence of Demarco Murray limits the Cowboys running game, mounting the pressure on Romo. History indicates that Romo handles pressure poorly. Lastly, from Walter Football, "Favorites are just 1-9 against the spread prior to Thursday games this year". The Browns will keep this game close so I'll take them and the points.

Recap: What else is new. The Cowboys looked marginal at home and barely beat an energetic Browns team. The Browns probably would have won this game with better clock management and red zone offense. It was nice to see Tony Romo lead the offense for the comeback with less than one minute to play. I still don't trust the Cowboys at home as favorites by more than 3 points.

Saints -5.5 @ Raiders

Some people will look at the Saints schedule and suggest that this is a let down game for them. I believe that most of Saints let down games have already occurred in the first 4 weeks of the season. They are firing on all cylinders at the moment, having won 4 of their last 5 games. Jimmy Graham seems healthy which is huge for the Saints passing game. Additionally, Joe Vitt said last week that Mark Ingram is finally fully healthy. If the Saints can establish a strong running game, their offense will be even more explosive. Furthermore, the Raiders defense has been abysmal in the past 2 weeks, and things are about get uglier for them.

Speaking of ugly defenses, have I mentioned the Saints'? They are last in the NFL allowing 8.6 passing YPA and 5.5 rushing YPA. However, even though the Saints D allow an enormous amount of yards, they do just enough for their offense to give them a chance to win. Without Darren McFadden in the game, Carson Palmer will be asked to do too much and he will fail under the circumstance.

Recap: The Saints are looking dominant again. Drew Brees was on fire in the first half torching the Raiders secondary. It was also nice to see the Saints establish a running game in this contest. A much needed relaxing cover after the tumultuous 1 pm. games. The Saints have a very tough schedule the remaining of the season, but they seem like they could beat anyone at the moment.

Look for the Brees, Graham connection to continue this week.

Late Addition: Jaguars -16 @ Texans

Check out the comments section for my explanation.

Recap: The Texans defense really misses Brian Cushing. They were fortunate to get this win against a hungry Titans team. Houston looked played like they were overlooking this game and almost paid the price. The Jaguars once again played well on the road where people doubt them and the spreads are huge. They may have a let down game at home against the Titans after this draining loss.

I look forward to seeing your picks and feedback in the comments section. Additionally, I may post a few NBA picks in the comments section in the next few days, be in the lookout. If you enjoy my picks, please share with your pals. I would appreciate it very much.

Happy Winnings,

@omie_g

TNF: Dolphins @ Bills O/U

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 02:33:00 +0000

Every now and then, I'll make a pick for the Thursday Night Football (TNF) game when I have a feel for it. My Week 11 Horseshoes Tosses will be released on schedule by Friday afternoon.

Dolphins, Bills 'UNDER' 45.5

So far this season, the 'UNDER' has occurred in 6 of the 9 TNF games. Teams come into the TNF game with 3 days rest and they are both physically and mentally fatigued.
Ryan Tannehill is a Texas boy playing his Football in Miami. It's safe to say that he is not accustomed to the weather he's about to face in Buffalo. The forecast is predicting a very cold night and Tannehill will be out of his comfort zone. Because Tannehill won't have much success throwing the ball, the Bills D will be able to focus their efforts on Reggie Bush and slow his progress.

Fred Jackson will miss the game with a concussion, allowing CJ Spiller to be the Bills lead back. Although the Dolphins have struggled against the run lately, they are only allowing 3.8 yards per rush (YPR) this season. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games when playing Buffalo. Both teams excel in the running game which drains the clock. Scoring will be limited in this game so I'm taking the 'UNDER'.

I've heard of good arguments for taking both the Bills and the Dolphins and I don't see a clear advantage here, so I will refrain from betting ATS in this one. Good luck on Thursday!

Week 10 Tossing Horseshoes: #stacksheetsunday (with Recap)

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Fri, 09 Nov 2012 05:13:00 +0000

Last week: 5-0!!
Season: 28-18 (60%)

My friends often see me tweet the hashtag #stacksheetsunday and wonder what in the world I'm tweeting about. I thought this would be a solid week to explain what this hashtag is all about after a 5-0 week. In Layman's terms, #stacksheetsunday is about piling up $100 bills on Sunday football betting. It is also a lifestyle I lead on Sundays with my close friends as we watch football, best described by the picture below.

This is what #stacksheetsunday is all about. Photo cred: Jordan Karkoulas (@JordanKarkoulas)

Feel free to use #stacksheetmonday #stacksheetmidweek #stacksheetplayoffs on Twitter for all your stacking sheets purposes.

Bengals +4.5 vs. Giants

The Bengals have been reeling ever since their 3-1 start, but they gave the Broncos a bit of a scare last week. The Giants do not have the personnel to stop AJ Green, possibly the best wide receiver in the NFL at the moment. The key for the Bengals on offense will be to protect their QB because the Giants have some of the best pass rushers in the game.

The Giants lacked focus against the Steelers after a tumultuous week. They will be looking forward to their much needed bye and their subsequent match up against the Packers. The lack of focus will occur because the Giants sit comfortably in 1st place in their division, playing a non-conference game. Eli Manning has struggled in his last 4 games throwing for an average of 212 yards per game while throwing 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in that span. I have no doubts the Giants will bounce back after their bye week, but this will be a let down game for them.

Recap: This went pretty much according to plan. The Bengals jumped out to a big lead, and the Giants never seemed to have recovered. Eli Manning and company looked like they were looking forward to their bye. The duo of Dalton and Green impressed again as expected.

Lions -2.5 @ Vikings

This is not the same Lions team that lost to the Vikings in week 4. The Vikings had 2 special teams touchdowns in that game (kickoff and punt return), which won't happen this time around. Coming off their bye week, the Lions have been much sharper winning 3 out of their last 4 games. The emergence of the youthful Ryan Broyles and Titus Young has provided Mathew Stafford with more weapons and has alleviated some pressure off Calvin Johnson. Coming off a 3 touchdown effort, Mikel Leshoure will produce against this Vikings defense allowing 4.6 rushing yards per carry (YPC) in its last 4 games.

The Lions will be looking to leapfrog the Vikings in the standings in a divisional match up

The Vikings team on the other hand is in a tailspin. Christian Ponder is struggling and he's barely looked like an NFL quarterback of late. The explosive Adrian Peterson will keep the Vikings in the game, just like he did last week against the Seahawks, but that won't be enough. Although the Lions allow a league average 4.3 YPC, they have only allowed 2 rushing touchdowns all season long. The availability of Percy Harvin will be a key factor for the Vikings offense and special teams. (recall it was Harvin who returned a kickoff for a touchdown against the Lions in week 4). However, these two teams are headed on opposite directions, and come Sunday, the Lions will come away with a victory.

Recap: The Lions have got to find a way to play with intensity throughout the game, instead of only the 4th quarter. They started the game flat and were never able to recover. Adrian Peterson was once again a beast. However, the turning point of the game came when the Calvin Johnson fumbled the ball in the 4th quarter when it was a one possession game. The Vikings scored in the ensuing drive and the game was over.

Buccaneers -3 vs. Chargers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing like a team on a mission. Their young offensive stars are performing at a very high level. Fantasy owners who have demonstrated patience with rookie Doug Martin are being heavily rewarded. Since the bye week, Doug Martin has rushed for 547 yards in 83 carries in 4 games, an impressive 6.6 YPC. The passing game has been clicking as well with Josh Freeman making better decisions, limiting turnovers. The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with 8.1 passing yards per attempt (YPA). Freeman has been aided by the maturing Mike Williams and the veteran Vincent Jackson at his disposal. V-Jax will be highly motivated to play against his former team that let him go last year during free agency.

The Chargers win against the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football (TNF) was not very impressive. Their play calling was predictable and they were more opportunistic than dominant. Ryan Mathews will not have any success running the ball against this Bucs defense allowing only 3.4 yards per rush. Although the Bucs secondary has it's issues allowing 8.0 passing YPA, Philip Rivers is not the type of elite quarterback that will lead his team to victory by carrying all the load on his shoulders. Rivers has thrown only 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while losing 3 fumbles this season. I'll take the Bucs to cover against a West coast team playing a 1 pm. East coast game.

Recap: The Chargers played pretty well on Sunday, limiting Josh Freeman and out gaining the Bucs in terms of yards. The Chargers struggled in the 2nd half, only scoring 3 points while allowing 17. They did not seem like the once dominant Chargers and were unable to finish. The Buccaneers are looking like a team that's learning to win and they are doing the little things correctly.

Titans +6 @ Dolphins

After having read some of the trends in this match up, it was impossible not to pick the Titans. Check these trends from Walter Football:

"Titans are 4-0 ATS after losing by 30+ since 2006.

Dolphins are 0-10 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year."

Despite winning by large margins against the Raiders and the Jets this season, the Dolphins do not resemble a commanding team. For all of Miami's accomplishment stopping the run (allowing only 3.6 YPC), they have struggled against the pass. The Dolphins are allowing 7.1 YPA and 293 passing YPG. Prior to his shoulder injury, Jake Locker was appearing like a competent QB, and his return should bolster the Titans' chances. The Titans also have their concerns on defense, struggling against opponent's running and passing game. However, the Dolphins will not be as focused on this game, looking forward to their TNF game, while the Titans will be looking to salvage some pride after a humiliating loss to the Bears. The Titans will keep this game close.

Recap: The trends continue! The Titans played with some swagger after getting blown out the previous week. The Dolphins on the other hand looked dejected and couldn't do anything right. Chris Johnson once again had some impressive stats rushing for 126 yards and a touchdown. It's nice to get some comfortable wins on Sundays on my betting card.

Bears -1.5 vs. Texans

These two teams have many things in common, identical 7-1 records, losses to the Packers, potential candidates for defensive player of the year (J.J. Watt & Charles Tillman) and dominating defenses. Both secondaries are formidable but the Bears have an advantage here. The Bears have only allowed 7 passing touchdowns to the Texans 13, and the Bears have intercepted 13 passes to the Texans 9. The Texans may have had an edge in the run defense, but the loss Brian Cushing evens things out. Although the Texans are averaging 138 rushing YPG, they have not been as efficient running the ball this season, averaging only 3.9 YPC. The subpar Texans O-line will not create enough open lanes to have success against the Bears run defense.

The key to success for the Bears on offense will be to protect Jay Cutler, which will limit the QB's high turnover rate. One of the X factor in this game will be the raucous Chicago crowd who will make it difficult for Matt Schaub to run his offense comfortably. The Bears will prevail in this game in a closely contested match up.

Recap: I cannot use Jay Cutler's injury as an excuse for the Bears failures on Sunday. Even when Cutler was in the game, he was largely ineffective. It would be harsh to put the blame on Cutler because the weather conditions did not favor the passing game. The Texans D did a better job in the conditions forcing more turnovers and they were able to win a ugly affair.

Will Charles Tillman win defensive player of the year award? A strong showing in this game would help.

Take a look in the comments section at Sots with his weekly installment of Podium Picks.
Feel free to post your picks in the comments section friends, let's celebrate our picks together!

Once again, a big shout out to Jordan Karkoulas (@JordanKarkoulas) for using his skills to produce a beautiful #stacksheetsunday poster. Thank you.

Happy Winnings,

@omie_g

Week 9 Tosing Horseshoes: Happy Movember (with Recap)

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Fri, 02 Nov 2012 04:51:00 +0000

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 23-18

It's November, which means it's time to grow your mustache, raise awareness and funds for men's health. So which Movember style will be yours this year?

As this blog grows from it's infancy, new things are being learned every week. Last week, I learned that it's unwise to make predictions that are heavily weather dependent. (i.e. Matt Ryan's aerial assault of the Eagles.) Baring a few hours notice, stay away from long term weather forecast when considering possible outcomes. Let's rebound and strike it rich!

Make sure to follow my homey @norin_ondeck's in game banter and check out his weekly From the Gut pick in the comments section below.

Ravens -4 @ Browns

A lot of people have written off the Ravens after the injuries to Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb. Coming off the bye week, the Ravens will be well rested and motivated to prove their critics wrong. It's unacceptable for a team with a talent like Ray Rice to be 30th in the NFL with 22.1 rushing attempts per game. Hopefully Ravens OC Cam Cameron used the bye week to gather some sense. The Browns are 23rd in the NFL allowing 4.4 YPC (yards per carry). If the Ravens are smart enough to run, they should be able to run freely against their opponent this week.

With Terrell Suggs two weeks healthier, look for the Ravens to put Brandon Wheeden under pressure, forcing errant throws or turnovers. Now the question is how the Ravens fare in stopping Trent Richardson. Last time these teams met, Richardson only rushed for 47 yards in 14 carries. With an extra week of preparation, the Ravens will keep T-Rich under 100 yards rushing and cover the spread.

Recap: Baltimore went up early and they thought they could just coast through. Ray Rice was very good and he was used more effectively in this game. Although the Ravens allowed over 100 yards to T-Rich, they kept him away from the end zone and ensured a win.

Bears -3.5 @ Titans

The Bears have taken care of business against inferior teams, except for last week coming off a short week. Chicago has won their games by an average of 16.3 points. The Bears will be able to shut down the Titans biggest strength: their running game. The Bears allow a paltry 3.8 (YPC), 8th in the NFL. And if the ageless wonder Matt Hasselbeck is forced to throw excessively against this D, the Titans day will be very long.

The Bears should be able to move the chains with ease on offense. The Titans D has not been particularly impressive stopping neither the run nor the pass. With a healthy Matt Forte and the duo of Cutler and Marshall, the Bears will score sufficiently to beat the Titans. After a close call last week, the Bears will be sharper this time around, even in a non-conference match up.

Recap: The Bears came out strong against a lesser opponent and their D was dominant once again. The comfort level between Cutler and Marshall and Matt Forte's talents also make this offense a dangerous one. I like them this week against the Texans. More on this to come.

Lions -4 @ Jaguars

Matthew Stafford looked more comfortable with Ryan Broyles and Titus Young than he did with Nate Burleson. Both Broyles and Young are athletic wide receivers that give Stafford some solid options beyond Megatron. Although the Jags have a solid good D allowing only 6.8 yards per pass and 4.2 yards per rush, look for Stafford to continue playing at a high level this week. The Jaguars will once again miss the explosiveness of Maurice Jones Drew on offense. Rashad Jennings who rushed for 59 yards in 17 carries last week simply isn't on the same level as MJD. Additionally, if Ndamukong Suh can get some pressure on Gabbert, this one will be over early. I like the Lions by a touchdown in this game.

Recap: Matt Stafford once again looked like the Stafford of last year. Even though he didn't throw a touchdown in this game, he was accurate and efficient. The Lions will be a dangerous team if they can establish a running game and get healthier on defense.

Buccaneers +1.5 @ Raiders

The early season shenanigans by coach Greg Schiano brought his team closer and they're playing with a 'us vs. the world' mentality this season. The Bucs have been competitive in every single game this season. All their losses have been by 7 points or less, even with a tough schedule so far. Ever since the bye week, the Buccaneers offense has been in sync with key contributions from Josh Freeman, Doug Martin and the receivers. Look for the red hot Freeman to continue his hot streak this week.

To be fair, the Raiders have also been playing better since their early bye week. Unfortunately for them, the Bucs allow a league best 3.5 YPC, so McFadden will be kept quiet. Oakland is also 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home. Even though I expect a good day from Carson Palmer, the Bucs will be able to keep up with the Raiders and win a close one on the road.

Recap: I wouldn't want to be facing the Bucs right now if I was their opponent. Tampa Bay seems to have bought into coach Greg Schiano's system and approach. However, they are no longer the underrated team they once were coming off their bye :(

Saints -3 vs. Philadelphia

Don't get me wrong, both these teams have their concerns. However, I'm taking the Saints here because they have less issues than the Eagles and because someone named Drew Brees plays for them. The Saints defensive struggles have been well documented so far, but not all hope is lost. With an extra week to prepare with the return of their DC Steve Spagnuolo, the Saints will have a game plan to slow down LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick. More importantly, with the added pressure on Andy Reid and Vick, the Eagles will play conservatively to limit turnovers, allowing the Saints to take an early lead. The Eagles will be under pressure to score throughout the game, which ultimately will result to more turnovers for them. Look for Drew Brees and the Saints to win a high scoring affair.

Recap: Although I was expecting a higher scoring game, the outcome was predictable in this game. The Saints are simply a better team at the moment. I honestly felt bad for Michael Vick. The Eagles O-line inadequacies are shocking and until they fix it, you must fade the Eagles.

Happy Winnings,

@omie_g

Week 8 Tossing Horseshoes: Halloween Horror (with Recap)

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 22:05:00 +0000

Last week: 3-2
Season: 21-15

Even though I had a pretty lousy day with my bets last Sunday, the day was a glorious one. The weather was beautiful in Toronto. A bunch of our buddies got together at 11 am. and had brunch and beer. Then we played some football; I was nicknamed 'The Gloves' because I was wearing my sweet under armor football gloves and was catching all the balls coming my way. Starting at 1 pm. ensued an almost non stop football viewing lasting almost 11 hours.

Although I went 3-2 last week, both loses hurt a bit more than usual for different reasons. The 'OVER' 45 call on the Browns vs. Colts hurt because that was my most confident pick of the day; I called it my "gold pick" smh.
"Luck sometimes visits a fool, but it never sits down with him."German Proverb. Luck didn't do either for me last week (pun intended)

Don't get me wrong, I understand I was pretty lucky to get the Dallas win at -2.5, so I should accept the bad luck with the good. But don't forget: 'Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.' Seneca (5 BC – 65 AD).

Let's hope to avoid some Halloween horror this week and strike something like this...

Eagles -2.5 vs. Falcons

Eagles, Falcons 'UNDER' 45

Let's start with the spread... The Eagles seem to be a team in total disarray, firing their defensive coordinator Juan Castillo. But with Andy Reid on the hot seat yet again, look for the Eagles to be amped up this week. With the tight division race in the NFC East, this game means more to the Eagles (3-3) than the (6-0) Falcons. Interestingly, the Eagles are 6-0 SU (straight up) in their last 6 games at home against the Falcons and 5-0-1 ATS (against the spread). With some lousy weather on the horizon for Sunday (more on this in a bit), expect both teams to lean on their running game which clearly favors the Eagles. The Falcons allow a whopping 5.2 yards per carry (31st in the NFL). Even though I jumped on this spread earlier in the week at -1 (-120), I still like the Eagles at -2.5 or -3.

A couple of favorable points for picking the Eagles this week from WalterFootball:

1. For whatever reason, Reid is awesome coming off a bye. He's never lost, covering 10 of 13 chances. Betting on favorites with an extra week to prepare is usually a good betting proposition anyway.

3. Reid owns the Falcons. Excluding a Week 17 contest in which he sat his starters, he's 7-2 against the spread against Atlanta throughout his tenure. He's 3-1 ATS versus Matt Ryan, with the only loss coming last year when his team blew a big lead after QBDK suffered an injury.

Recap: Nothing seems to be going right for the Eagles the past few weeks. Firing the defensive coordinator didn't do much for that D. I was surprised how comfortable Matt Ryan looked on the road. The Falcons were the better team and they took care of business.

LeSean McCoy will bust out some big runs against the Falcons

Now for the under... There's a 90% chance of precipitation this Sunday in Philadelphia. Both teams will throw the ball cautiously. The Eagles are already a low scoring team averaging only 17.2 points per game. The high scoring team, the Falcons are away from their comfort zone, The Dome, on a rainy, chilly afternoon. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia. The Falcons D is strong against the pass and weak against the run while the Ealges D is strong against the run and weak against the pass. Even with a modest total of 45, both D are good enough to restrict the scoring with a bit of help from mother nature.

Recap: As a fairly new NFL bettor, I learned a very valuable lesson this week. Don't bet on an outcome almost solely based on the weather, with more than 24 hours left to the game. I was clearly expecting Cleveland's weather in Philadelphia and I didn't get it.

Lions -1 vs. Seahawks

The Lions have been a disappointment so far. In my opinion, expectations were a bit too high for this team coming into the season, specially without Jahvid Best. However, I'm picking the Lions this week because I don't trust Russell Wilson to have much success on Sunday. Wilson has an away QB rating of 57.3 as opposed to his home QB rating of 115.2. His TD/INT ratio away is 2/7 while his home TD/INT ratio is 6/0. The offense will still run through Marshawn Lynch, but the Lions rush D is a decent one allowing 4.1 yards per carry.

As we saw last week, it's impossible to keep Stafford quiet for the entire game. Taking better care of the ball in the red zone will allow the Lions to put up some points on the board. Whether he connects with Megatron or someone else, Stafford will lead his team and our picks to victory.

Recap: As a Matt Stafford owner in fantasy, I was delighted by his performance. Both Titus Young Jr. and Ryan Broyles played well and they'll get plenty of opportunities defenses focusing on Megatron and with Burleson out. If they can establish a bit of a running game, the Lions will be tough to beat.

Redskins, Steelers 'OVER' 47

Redskins -4.5 @ Steelers

In RGIII I trust

**Update: The weather won't be very cooperative for the OVER on Sunday so I'm updating my pick. I'll take the Redskins at +4.5. More on this to come.

The Redskins looked impressive last week on the road against the Giants. Whereas the Steelers looked pretty ordinary, although the dropped balls didn't help. RGIII is the type of X factor that if healthy, he can put up points against any defense by throwing or running. People may say "that's too much hype for a player who's only played 7 games in the NFL", but RGIII is special. The key for the Redskins will be to limit the turnovers and maximize their opportunities on offense. They had 4 turnovers last week leading to missed opportunities.

The advantage in the passing game would certainly go to the Steelers in this game. But the infancy of Hurricane Sandy will change the game plans of both teams and they will be running the ball more often. Jonathan Dwyer had a very good week last week. Things won't go as smoothly this week against a Redskins rush D that allows only 3.9 YPC (9th in the NFL). The Redskins have better personnel to run against a D that isn't what it used to be. No matter the final score, this game will be close enough for the Redskins to cover.

Recap: Maybe it was the rain or the conditions, but over 10 drops in a game will kill any team. But the Redskins couldn't come up with any stops and let the Steelers score at will in the first half. It was a pretty frustrating game to watch cheering for the Redskins.

Giants -2 @ Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys have 14-12 regular season record in their newly built $1.2 billion stadium. Not much of a home field advantage if you ask me. I have a few explanations for their struggles at home...

1) IT'S NOT VERY LOUD: The stadium is so huge, that even when 80,000 or 100,000 are making noise at the game, it doesn't sound as loud and intimidating to the opposition. Plus the Cowboys often don't give these fans much to cheer about at home.

2) OPPOSITION FANS ARE IN THE HOUSE: It's a state of the art, publicized stadium. Fans want to attend a game at Cowboys Stadium. It's enticing for fans to travel with their team to go watch a game at Cowboys stadium. Remember how many Bears fans were in attendance in Dallas during their week 4 match up?

3) IT BRINGS THE BEST OUT OF THEIR OPPONENTS: The Cowboys Stadium is so grand and dignified that opposition players elevate their game a notch to put on a show on this stage.

Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home. Dallas is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games when playing NY Giants. The Giants will be looking to avenge their week 1 home loss to the Cowboys. The motivated New York team will win a close one.

Recap: Poor Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. But instead of trying to blame them, I will put this loss on coach Garret and his mismanagement of the game. I'm not complaining because it gave the Giants the win. I believe they took the foot of the pedal taking a big early lead and tried to coast their way to a victory. It almost cost them.

Cowboys Stadium: Home field advantage?

Last Week:3-2
Season: 21-15

Happy Winnings,

@Omie_G

Week 7 Tossing Horseshoes: Bye Bye Bye

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 07:15:00 +0000

Howdy everyone! No time to celebrate too much after a good week 6 because week 7 is just around the corner.

Let's try to make it 2 successful weeks in a row.

I would also like to mention that some of the research for my picks come from WalterFootball.com. He's got some of the best free football betting analysis out there, I would recommend a visit.

Before I get into my picks for this week, I will share with you my favorite NFL play, in terms of athleticism. The creativity along with near flawless execution makes this one of the best NFL plays of all time. I say near flawless execution because you'll notice his left hand touches the ground momentarily, so I deducted a half point for the landing. Enjoy.

Colts, Browns 'OVER' 45

A couple of struggling defenses face off against two ~~young~~ rookie QBs, who are learning on the job quite well. Both teams allow over 25 PPG (points per game) and score over 20. They clearly have a better time scoring points than preventing them. Look for Trent Richardson to have a big game against an Indy run D that allows 159 rushing YPG (yards per game). They made Shonn Greene look like a future Hall of Famer last week.
Andrew Luck will also be better this week. Not surprisingly for a good young QB, Luck has struggled on the road and has looked at ease at home. He has an away QB rating of 52.1 with a 1/5 TD/INT ratio. While at home, Luck has a QB rating of 88.6 with a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. Look for both offenses to have a big gamer.


Look for both Brandon Wheeden (L) and Andrew Luck (R) to have a big game this Sunday

Saints -2.5 @ Buccaneers

Sure the Buccaneers looked good last week thumping the Chiefs 38-10. But let's not forget they were coming off a bye week to face Brady Quinn. It'll be a different story facing Drew Brees and the Saints coming off their bye week. Tampa Bay defends the run quite well allowing only 3.1 YPC (yards per carry), but the Saints are a run dependent team anyways. Marques Colston and Lance Moore are healthier and Jimmy Graham is expected to play on Sunday. The Saints will develop a game plan to get enough stops against the Bucs for their offense to give them a chance to win. The Saints, the veteran team used to winning, will win a high scoring game by about a touchdown.

**Update**

Jimmy Graham will not play against Tampa Bay. It's a big loss for the Saints, specially in the red zone. Graham wasn't much of a factor in his last game against San Diego, but was used as a decoy. The line has also shifted pretty drastically and now sits at -1.5 for the Saints. Coming off the bye week, the Saints are good enough to win even without Graham.

Cowboys -2 @ Panthers

A lot people would look at this line and think that the Panthers are the easy choice, coming off a bye week as a home underdog. But the Cowboys know how important this game is for their season as their next 3 games are against the Giants, Falcons and the Eagles. Even after an emotional loss last week, the Cowboys will play with urgency. For Dallas, the return of their center Phil Costa was a significant addition. His impact was evident with the Cowboys running the ball very well. Watch for the Cowboys to lean heavily on the run again against a Panthers team allowing 127.4 rushing YPG.

Speaking of centers, Panthers center Ryan Kalil will miss the game against Dallas. The Panthers will struggle to run the ball, and with Jay Ratliff one week healthier, Cam Newton will be under pressure often as well. This should be a close game, but Dallas will win and cover.

Bills -3 vs. Titans

Bills, Titans 'OVER' 46.5

Although it doesn't always translate into wins, Buffalo has a better QB, running game and are a good home team. The Bills have beaten every team they were 'supposed' to beat so far (the Jets were favorite at home in Week 1). The Titans are 0-3 on the road with 3 heavy losses (by 23 points or more). I bet that's the Tennessee that shows up this week at Buffalo.

Even without last year's beard, you should fear Ryan Fitzpatrick this week

As for the over, the Bills allow 32 PPG while the Titans allow 34 PPG. If you thought the 129.5 rushing YPG the Titans allow were high, you may lose your mind when you find out that the Bills allow 173.5 rushing YPG. Even Chris Johnson will likely have a decent game against this D. Matt Hasselbeck didn't look incompetent either last week against the Steelers.
Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to have success against a dismal Titans secondary. In both team's last 5 games, the total has gone over 4 times out of 5. That trend will continue this week.

Last Week: 4-1

Season: 18-13

I leave you with this beautiful RG3 run from last week even though it killed me last week in fantasy. What a beast!

Happy Winnings,

@Omie_G

Week 6 Tossing Horseshoes: Home is where the heart is

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Sun, 14 Oct 2012 02:57:00 +0000

Went a mere 2-3 last week.

I think the Steelers proved last week and this week that they play down to their competition. They had some chances to put away the Eagles after the numerous Vick fumbles, yet they failed to take full advantage and the game was closer than it should have been.
It was unfortunate that RGIII went down last week, pretty much ending the hope for my 'OVER' call, but that's the nature of this beautiful game.

Before my picks for this week, I wanted to share with you a video that was posted on my twitter wall (follow me @omie_g). If you ever wondered why so many pop hits sounded similar, here's an funny explanation.

Buccaneers -4 vs. Chiefs

In comes Brady Quinn to replace Matt Cassel and although Cassel is not a special QB neither is Brady Quinn. The Chiefs will be running a lot on Sunday to limit the turnovers and to let their beast Jamal Charles do most of the damage. Nonetheless, the Bucs also allow a paltry 3.6 YPC (7th in the NFL) and coming off the bye will have a game plan for the Chiefs running game. The Chiefs also struggle stopping the run allowing 4.6 YPC (23rd in the NFL). Doug Martin has been mediocre at best this season, but I say he'll have a nice game for the Bucs helping them secure a comfortable win.

Bengals, Browns 'OVER' 43.5

Both of these teams can put up decent points, 25 PPG for the Bengals and 20 PPG for the Browns. They also allow quite a few, both teams allow over 25 PPG. Last time these two teams met last than a moth ago, the score was 34-27 Bengals. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Cleveland. Even though some key defensive players are returning for both teams; Joe Haden (CLE) and Nate Clements (CIN), I feel that both QB's should have good games. I predict the Bengals to go up early and the Browns to keep it close by keeping up with the Cincinnati.

Cowboys +3.5 @ Ravens

The dangerous Jay Ratliff returns against the Ravens on Sunday. Good luck Flacco!

My only non home team pick this week, hence the title. The Cowboys will be rejoicing the return of Jay Ratliff of D and will be able to put Flacco under pressure throughout the game. The Cowboys will be motivated after their humiliating loss at home against the Bears coming off a bye week. The Ravens are a team that plays down to their competition, as exhibited in their close wins against the Buccaneers and the Browns. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home. I envision a very close game so I'll take the Cowboys and the points.

Dolphins -4 vs. Rams

The Rams are 3-0 at home at 0-2 on the road. With Danny Amendola out, Sam Bradford's passing options are quite limited. Steven Jackson won't have much success either against the beefy Dolphins rush D allowing a league low 2.6 YPC. Even though Reggie Bush is a little nicked up, he should have pretty good day running against an average rush D. Even with a strong Ramn, secondary, Tannehill and Bush will be able to put up enough points to cover the line. I don't see the Dolphins running away with this game, but I feel they'll cover the points in a low scoring affair.

Seahawks +4 vs. Patriots

CenturyLink Stadium; one of the loudest in the NFL

Welcome to the CenturyLink Field Patriots, just don't get too comfortable. Seattle is one of the toughest to city to play in for an opposition and it's truly a home field advantage for the Seahawks. The Patriots are coming off two wins where they were able to freely run their offense and run teams to the ground. Unfortunately for the Pats, running against this Seahawks D, allowin a measly 3.3 YPC, is easier said than done. Brady won't be able to use the no huddle offense as effectively with the boisterous Seattle crowd, interrupting his rhythm. I don't think the Seahawks offense will do much to impress on Sunday, but they'll do enough to keep it close with the Pats. Seattle will prove on Sunday that home is truly where the heart is and cover the spread.

Last Week: 2-3

Season: 14-12

Happy Winnings,

@Omie_G

Week 5 Tossing Horseshoes: 59Fifty > 39Thirty

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 23:10:00 +0000

Before I get into my picks, I would like to confess my admiration for the latest NFL New Era caps. Let's be honest here, the old 39Thirty caps were probably made only to be worn in the 90's. In come these slick and stylish 59Fifty head gears that can be worn casually almost everywhere. Heck Hakeem Nicks doesn't care about his salary as long as the Giants are providing him with enough caps. By the way, they're also Jerry Jones approved.

39Thirty Caps

59Fifty Caps

Update, here's a link to Scott Pianowski's throwing darts for week 5

The man has been on fire ever since the start of the season. If you don't like my picks, you could always go with his.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagle

The Steelers D has not looked very impressive so far but some heavy reinforcements are on their way with the return of Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. The Steelers will be ready; well prepared for Vick and company after their early bye week. Ben Roethlisberger has taken his game to another level this season, and even against a good Eagles secondary, he should have some success against them. Coming off a bye week and playing at home, the Steelers will beat the Eagles and cover the spread.

James Harris (left) and Troy Polamalu return for the Steelers following their week 4 bye.

Atlanta Falcons, Washington Redskins 'OVER' 51

The Falcons are 3rd in the league scoring 31 points/game while the Redskins are 4th scoring 30.8 points/game. The total has gone OVER in all 4 of Washington's game this season while the Falcons have gone OVER in 2 of their past 4 games. I envision RGIII and Alfred Morris to run freely against a weak Falcons run D and both teams to put up some big points in a tightly fought contest.

New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers 'OVER' 53

Say what you will about the Saints, they can still score in bunches. Brees is still an elite quarterback with solid talents around him. Saints D on the other hand would probably allow Mark Sanchez to throw 4 TD's and Shonn Greene to rush for over 100 yards against them. Whichever Charger gets the majority of the carries on Sunday (my bet is on Mathews), look for him to torch that D. The total has gone OVER in 4 out of 4 New Orleans games this season. The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 12 games on the road.

Minnesota Vikings -5.5 vs. Tennessee Titans

When I try to visualize this game, I have great difficulties figuring out how the Titans will score in this game. With injuries to their QB (Locker) and top WR (Britt), and an almost non-existent run game (although they looked better last week), the Titans chances look bleak this week. Look for the Vikings to throw some pressure toward the slow footed Hassleback and force some turnovers. The Vikings also have a balanced offense and with Jerome Simpson's return, they will be able to keep opposing D's honest, opening up more lanes for their run game and short passing game.

Houston Texans -8 @ NY Jets

The Jets have to wait at least one more week until their D can get some rest. The trouble with the Jets this week is their biggest weakness, rush D (allowing 173 rushing yards/game) is also their opponents' biggest strength, rushing (gaining 136 rush yards/game). The Jets offense seems to be in complete disarray and missing Santonio Holmes to an injury hurts Sanchez. I have a slight fear that after witnessing more Mark Sanchez struggles against the Texans, Rex Ryan will put in Tebow who will rally his troops and turn it into a close contest. Chances are Rex won't figure that out in time and will be handed another big loss at the hands of the Texans.

The Jets season isn't about to get any better against the Texans

Last week: 3-2

Season: 12-9

Happy Winnings,

@Omie_G

Tips and Strategies

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 09:22:00 +0000

Before I present my picks for this week, I thought I'd share some useful betting tips with all of you. Here are some strategies that I try to play by via The Sports Geek...

#1 NFL Betting Strategy – Money/Bankroll Management (only bet 2-5% of your bankroll on each bet)

#2 NFL Betting Strategy – Look For Weekly Edges (only bet on select games where you like the lines)

#3 NFL Betting Strategy – Line Shopping (check for lines with different sites to get the best odds)

#4 NFL Betting Strategy – Bet Sober and Don’t Tilt (we all have tough weeks, don't let that affect your betting)

http://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/nfl/strategy/

Following these strategies will allow you to have control of your bankroll while giving you a chance to increase your winnings or cap your loss.

Additionally, keeping track of certain factors such as teams overall records, ATS records and so on can also be useful. For instance, certain teams do very well at home or on the road whereas some teams will play really good against certain opponents. As long as you take these trends with a grain of salt, you’ll be able to better judge which team should win the game by knowing them. Betting sites like Bet365 will have additional match up info and trends.

And lastly, don't be scared to go with your guts. If you follow the strategies stated above, you won't be in too bad of shape if every now and then, you just go with your guts.

Gutsy smurf has got the guts, do you?

Happy Winnings,

@Omie_G

Pilot: Lazy Sunday

noreply@blogger.com (Omie_g) — Mon, 01 Oct 2012 10:44:00 +0000

Sundays doesn't get much better when you wake up late, put on some comfortable clothes and watch some football. Sprinkle on some friends, a big screen TV and delicious snacks and it's a blissful experience. "Lazy Sunday" as I like to call my Sundays during the football season is even more electrifying when $omething extra is on the line. Just a few years ago, I was merely a sports fan tuning in to watch some Football on Sundays. However, I soon discovered the joys of fantasy football and online sports gambling and my Sundays have never been the same. So whether you're watching some football or watching the Chronicles of Narnia with some cupcakes on a Sunday, as long as you're enjoying it, I salute you. #SNACKATTACKMOTHAFUCKA

I've only started betting on Football since 2011 with mild success. I’m writing this blog to keep a tab on my progress, to be held accountable for my picks, to share them with you and to receive your feedback. Rest assured, I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is by betting on my picks.

Hoping that money in mouth becomes money in pocket

I will be posting my week 5 picks a little later on in the week. I’m hoping you’ll join me for the ride and we’ll be raking in the cash together.

Happy Winnings,

@Omie_G