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NFC North Division Predictions and Win Totals

2010-08-02T21:23:00.000-07:00

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North (Reading Now)

We're finally on to our last division breakdown, the NFC North. While Favre still hasn't announced anything officially, I'm going to go with the assumption that he'll be back in the Purple and Gold this season. Obviously if he were to retire for good we'd lower the Vikings' predictions, so keep your eyes on the news and know to watch out for that in case you're thinking of making any Viking related bets. We'll be taking all odds from sportsbook.com once again, without further ado here's how I see the NFC North shaking out:

Chicago Bears
Win Line: 8
Odds to win division: +350

The Bears slogged to a 7-9 finish in 2009, failing to live up the hype of finally adding a quality QB to the team. A big part of the problem was that Cutler's play was far from quality, as he struggled with accuracy all year and threw a whopping 26 interceptions (20 of which were on the road, remember that for 2010 games). That combined with below average wide receivers led to the Bears' ranking of 20th in yards per pass attempt, explaining some of the offensive woes. This season, despite adding Mike Martz as offensive coordinator, it's hard to see the Bears' fortunes improving much on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest difference between Cutler on the Bears and on the Broncos is that playing with Chicago, he's constantly under pressure as they have a well below average offensive line. He hasn't shown that he can make good decisions under pressure, and this coming season with no new pieces at WR or on the offensive line and learning a new system it'll probably be more of the same when it comes to turnovers. At RB the Bears did add Chester Taylor, but he'll serve a backup role to Matt Forte, who struggled in 2009 running for just 3.6 yards per carry. Running out of the I-formation was where Forte saw the most success, as he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, however this is a formation Martz rarely uses which is certainly a discouraging indication for Forte this coming year. We'll likely see an inconsistent offense out of the Bears from this season yet again.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears certainly suffered a big blow when they lost Brian Urlacher for the season in Week 1. The defense played without one of their leaders the entire season, and it showed as they were slightly below average defending the pass and the rush (17th and 19th). They certainly made one of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason though as they added DE Julius Peppers to the team, which combined with the return of Urlacher should vault this defense into possible top 10 status in each category. For this to happen though Tommie Harris will have to stay healthy, which has been a problem in years past. With the secondary remaining the same for this team, there's definitely potential for a big boost in production defensively that should help the Bears out. While I don't see this being an elite defense, it should certainly be above average. Despite the defensive improvements though, I don't see this team being able to overcome the lack of consistency on offense.

Predicted Record: 8-8
Total Play: NO PLAY

Detroit Lions
Win Line: 5
Odds to win division: +1500

While the Lions only won two games in 2009, the season may be considered a success just because it was two more wins than in 2008. The offense has issues scoring points despite adding QB Matthew Stafford in the 2009 draft, and star WR Calvin Johnson battled through some injuries throughout the season as well that may have slowed him. This resulted in a dismal 5.04 yards per pass attempt mark, 28th worst in the NFL. The rushing game proved no help either as the Lions also ranked 28th there, carrying the ball for just 3.95 yards per rush attempt. Needless to say, this led to the Lions making some big changes on offense. They drafted RB Jahvid Best with the 30th overall pick, and also added WR Nate Burleson as a much needed compliment to Calvin Johnson. There have been nothing but good reports about these two newcomers this offseason, as both have looked good so far and should prove a big help to the offense. One other piece the Lions added was TE Tony Scheffler, who will also be a receiving threat for Detroit throughout the season. The Lions also upgraded their offensive line with the addition of Rob Sims, so it looks like this offense could make some noise in 2010.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions' biggest weakness was their pass defense as they ranked 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed, and last in the league in defensive passer rating. Their rushing defense was a bit better, but still below average ranking 21st in the league. The Lions took a big step to help themselves drafting DT Ndamukong Suh, who has potential to be one of the elite players in the league. Besides Suh, the Lions also upgraded their line by adding DTs Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch. As a result the Lions will have a much more solid defensive line, and likely improve upon their rank of 4th least sacks per game. In their secondary, the Lions added CB Chris Houston, an inconsistent player on the Falcons in 2009. He may offer some help, but I don't expect this to make a huge difference. Overall though this defense will take a big step forward, I feel like it can be at least an average unit. The Lions are certainly a team moving in the right direction, unfortunately their schedule does them no favors this season. This again looks like a line that's spot on, and while the Lions find themselves with more wins they still have a ways to go.

Projected Record: 5-11
Total Play: NO PLAY

Green Bay Packers
Win Line: 9.5
Odds to win division: +120

When I did my Super Bowl predictions a few months ago, the Packers were a team I mistakenly left out. They are currently one of my top 5 favorites to win the Super Bowl, as I feel this could be the year it all comes together for the team. The Packers made an early exit in the playoffs in 2009, but still overcame a slow start to the season to finish 11-5. The offense threw for 6.87 yards per pass attempt, 10th best in the league, a stunning mark in my opinion given all of the issues they had at offensive line. Rodgers took over 50 sacks, yet the team had an unbelievable level of success. They also addressed this weakness by drafting Bryan Buluga in the first round, who will certainly help stop the bleeding so to speak. With all the other pieces around Rodgers still in place, and a better o-line, the sky is the limit for this Packers' offense as I expect them to be top 5 in yards per pass attempt and possibly improve slightly in their running game as well (9th in the NFL last season in yards per rush attempt).

The Packers' defense has to be considered the weaker link heading into the season as they really let the team down in the 2009 playoffs against the Cardinals. While that was an awful week, the amazing numbers they posted in their first year in a new formation can't be ignored. The pass defense was 8th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and the rushing defense was 2nd best in the league to Baltimore. The pass defense mark may have been a bit of a mirage though, as they played the 2nd easiest passing schedule in the NFL. Al Harris will be returning for them coming off of an injury, but it's very questionable how effective he'll be and if he'll help improve the unit at all. The Packers did draft Morgan Burnett to help the squad, but how big of an impact he can make remains to be seen. The loss of Aaron Kampman also can't be ignored for this defense, although he didn't really fit the 3-4 scheme and it may not ultimately impact the squad very much. The other key loss is the suspension of DE Johnny Jolly, however the Packers did draft Mike Neal and seem to have other depth at the position that should keep the loss from hurting too much. Due to a tougher schedule this season, the Packers' defensive numbers will take a step back. However, this team has the offense to win in a shootout with anyone, and I believe that they'll do just that, winning the NFC North in the process. Again, the tough schedule will limit the number of wins, however the Packers could be very dangerous for a potential playoff run.

Projected Record: 10-6
Total Play: OVER 9.5

Minnesota Vikings
Win Line: 9.5
Odds to win division: +140

The Vikings know they let an opportunity slip through their fingers in 2009 as they probably should have been Super Bowl champions. However, they choked away their game against the Saints in the conference finals, turning the ball over five times and losing by just a field goal. It still was a great season for the Vikings though, as their offense was very good and yet still had room for improvement. Favre led the team while limiting his turnovers, and even though it's unlikely he does that again he'll still give the Vikings enough offensive production to make up for it. Adrian Peterson struggled with fumbles at times, and didn't seem like quite the same running back as years past as the Vikings only posted a 4.11 yards per carry mark, 22nd in the NFL. I think he could bounce back behind an elite offensive line this season though, and the Vikings offense will once again be explosive and dangerous every week.

The Vikings' defensive line was among the elite in 2009, and will be once again in 2010 as they return all of their major pieces. The unit was 7th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowed, and should be top 8 once again this coming season. The pass defense was a bit more concerning however, ranking 19th in the NFL despite playing the easiest schedule against passing teams. Antoine Winfield struggled through a broken foot last season though which definitely limited the unit, and if healthy this season should offer an immediate boost. Cedric Griffin's status is in doubt however coming off of a torn ACL, so the team may have to learn to live without him for a while. The Vikings also drafted Chris Cook for depth in the secondary this year, so the pass defense will likely be a bit better than in 2009. However, it does remain a point of concern for me. The other point of concern I have regarding this team is their poor play on the road last season. There's only one road game on their schedule that could be considered easy this coming season (Against the Lions), so a 4-4 mark on the road or worse wouldn't surprise me at all. I think the Vikings take a step back this year, finishing with a 10-6 mark as well. It'll come down to tiebreakers with the Packers possibly, so pick this team to win the division as well and enjoy a small profit if you like. I'll stick with my gut and go with the Packers though, but I do like the Vikings to go over their win total.

Projected Record: 10-6
Totals Play: OVER 9.5

2010 Projected NFC North Standings:
Packers: 10-6
Vikings: 10-6
Bears: 8-8
Lions: 5-11

NFC North Plays:
Packers to win division: +120
Packers OVER 9.5
Vikings OVER 9.5

A couple notes:

Should I choose to do this again next year I'll be sure to include odds along with win total bets. I made a big mistake not doing so this year, but I'll learn from it.
I'm taking a win off of the Steelers' projected record in the AFC North, the loss of Colon will hurt them and total predicted wins now adds up to 256 across the league

NFC West Division Predictions and Win Totals

2010-07-20T11:00:00.000-07:00

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West (Reading Now)
NFC East
NFC North

Well I find myself with a little extra time this week as I've been temporarily shelved by an ankle injury, but the good news is that means I can get to our next division writeup sooner! I'll tackle the NFC West this week, which looks likely to be one of the weaker divisions in the NFL this year. I'm pulling win totals and division odds from sportsbook.com again, here's what I see for the NFC West this year:

Arizona Cardinals
Win Line: 7.5
Odds to win division: +300

Arizona had a successful 2009 season finishing the year at 10-6 before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Saints in the divisional round of the playoffs. Although still below average the running game took a step in the right direction, and Kurt Warner led the team to an above average mark in passing as well. On the defensive side of the ball Arizona had its ups and downs, ranking 5th against the pass, yet only 23rd against the run. However, the defense made up for this by being the 9th best unit in the NFL at scoring efficiency.

2010 for the Cardinals will be a very different year as they no longer have QB Kurt Warner or WR Anquan Boldin on the team. Matt Leinart steps in looking to lead this team, and given what I've seen from him so far I'm not sure he's ready to. Although I think WR Steve Breaston will do a decent job replacing Boldin, this passing unit is sure to take a step back as I see Leinart struggling with turnovers all year. The running game should continue to move forward however as RBs Tim Hightower and "Beanie" Wells lead the rushing attack, and with Wells looking like he'll get more touches I expect the team to be about average running the ball, maybe slightly better. However, overall this will probably be a very inconsistent offensive unit and the Cardinals will struggle to score at times in 2010. On defense, one has to think that the team is bound to improve at least slightly as they've added OLB Joey Porter to the unit. Although they also lost Antrel Rolle, the addition of FS Kerry Rhodes should pretty much make up for his absence. Karlos Dansby is the only other notable loss for this defense, but again they've got a man to fill the position with ILB Daryl Washington, although again he may not be able to produce at quite the same level. Overall though this unit should improve a little bit, I expect them to rank slightly worse against the pass, but fill the run gaps a little bit better and get that weakness under control. However, in the end the offense will limit what this team can do, and the Cardinals will take a step back and find themselves out of the playoffs.

Predicted Record: 7-9
Total Play: NO PLAY

San Francisco 49ers
Win Line: 8.5
Odds to win division: -160

The 49ers showed flashes of promise in 2009, however inconsistent play by their quarterbacks resulted in them struggling to an 8-8 finish. The defense was a very bright spot for this team as they ranked 3rd in rush defense and 12th against the pass, while also ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency. With all of the same pieces in place as in 2009, and a little added depth by drafting Taylor Mays, I see a very similar outcome for this team in 2010. On offense, the team is also very similar aside from shuffling their offensive line yet again. Sacks played a big part in the poor passing numbers Smith put up in 2009, as he threw for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 23rd in the NFL. As Smith and the 49ers go forward in 2010, they're going to have to get improved play from the offensive line if these numbers are going to improve. Having WR Michael Crabtree all season should help, as he definitely has the talent to take a step forward and emerge as a top notch WR. If Vernon Davis also plays like he did last season, Smith should have the weapons to improve the team's passing numbers from last season, even if newly acquired WR Ted Ginn continues to be a bust. The running game was the bright spot on offense as usual last season, with RB Frank Gore leading the team to the 12th best rushing attack in the NFL. If Gore can stay healthy this season we should see similar if not a better ranking, and this should be a pretty balanced offense. Although facing a somewhat tough schedule this season, the 49ers are clearly the most complete team in the NFC West and should have no problem beating out the others for the division title and cruise into the playoffs.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: OVER 8.5

Seattle Seahawks
Win Line: 7.5
Odds to win division: +300

Seattle suffered through a miserable 2009 season, finishing with just a 5-11 record and absolutely terrible offensive numbers. The team was 9th worst at passing and 6th worst at running the ball, and despite their lack of yardage they were still the 7th least efficient team when it came to scoring the ball. On defense the news didn't get much better, as their bright spot was their average run defense. Their pass defense was a notch below, ranking 9th worst in the NFL, with scoring efficiency ranking the same.

Let's start with the offensive mess for Seattle. The good news is that with the Lendale White experiment over before it began, Justin Forsett should get a much higher number of touches. Forsett was a very underused piece of the offense last year, as he averaged over 5 yards per carry and has potential to be a difference maker on this offense. The Seahawks also added RB Leon Washington for return duties and to back up Forsett, and if he's recovered from his injury he should contribute to making this rush attack respectable for the Seahawks. In the passing game, Hasselbeck has struggled the past couple years with turnovers and the only new weapon he really has is rookie WR Golden Tate. I'm not a big believer that Tate can make a huge difference to this team, so I think the passing game will likely still be below average. On the defensive side of the ball, the Seahawks look like they may have a decent secondary, however their defensive line is a mess and possibly one of the worst in the league. It's going to be another season of the Seahawks struggling to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and with no impact players added to the unit it almost looks possible that they'll be worse than last year. With a shaky defense and an offense that has a lot of questions surrounding it, the Seahawks will not be able to compete this season, and the 7 wins I'm projecting them may actually be generous. This team won't be close to the playoffs, and get up to my 7 win projection if they're lucky.

Projected Record: 7-9
Total Play: UNDER 7.5

St. Louis Rams
Win Line: 5
Odds to win division: +2200

The Rams began the long project of rebuilding by drafting QB Sam Bradford with the first overall pick, and look to put the Marc Bulger era behind them. However, I'm not sure that Bradford is the answer to their problems. St. Louis quarterbacks got sacked almost three times a game last season, and being a QB that holds on to the ball a little too long that doesn't bode well for Bradford. Donnie Avery will return this season as the #1 WR, and hopefully for the Rams he doesn't suffer nearly as many injuries as he did in 2009. Laurent Robinson will likely be the #2 WR on this team, and he may have something to offer if he too can stay healthy this year. The Rams can probably improve upon their 2nd worst ranked pass offense from last year, however I'm not sure they'll get out of the bottom 8. RB Steven Jackson will again be a workhorse for this team, as he kept the Rams above average running the ball, as they ranked 11th in yards per rush attempt. The inability of the Rams to keep drives alive will keep him from scoring the ball as usual though, and his durability will be a concern this year as usual.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams made a few changes to try and fix their 30th ranked pass defense and 20th ranked rush defense. While the Rams' secondary is made up of mostly the same starters, they added Fred Robbins on their defensive line to help out with the run defense. Their biggest changes were at the linebacker position, where they added Na'il Diggs and Bobby Carpenter. These two should also help shore up the run defense a bit, however I still see that huge weakness at passing defense, something that will haunt them this year. The Rams took a step in the right direction, although I'm not sure it was a very big one. A slightly more merciful schedule should help this team escape this season with a few more wins, although still well in last place.

Projected Record: 4-12
Totals Play: UNDER 5

2010 Projected NFC West Standings:
49ers: 9-7
Cardinals: 7-9
Seahawks: 7-9
Rams: 4-12

NFC West Plays:
49ers to win division: -160
49ers OVER 8.5
Seahawks UNDER 7.5
Rams UNDER 5

NFC East Division Predictions and Win Totals

2010-07-12T20:28:00.000-07:00

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East (Reading Now)
NFC North

Another lengthy break, another apology by me. The good news is we may only have to go through this two more times seeing how after this writeup I only have two more divisions to break down. Hopefully I can stay on top of these a bit better though and close this out sooner rather than later. This week brings us to the NFC East, which I see overall being a bit weaker than usual this year. Win totals and division odds are taken from sportsbook.com yet again, here's how I see things going in the East:

Dallas Cowboys
Win Line: 9.5
Odds to win division: +110

Dallas had themselves a pretty successful 2009 season, the highlight of which may have been beating the at the time undefeated Saints. After finishing the regular season with an 11-5 record, the Cowboys took care of business at home against the Eagles in the Wild Card round of the playoffs before falling victim to the Vikings. Dallas was very solid on both sides of the ball, ranking 2nd in yards per rush attempt on offense, and 6th in yards per pass attempt. On defense, they weren't quite that good but still above average, ranking 9th in yards per pass attempt and 11th in yards per rush attempt. The biggest issue Dallas had was turning their offensive yards into points however, as they were 8th worst in the league at scoring efficiency.

This coming season, I have high hopes for the Cowboys as I believe they have a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run. I expect the running game to be just as good as last year if not slightly better with Felix Jones expected to get more touches this coming season, and Tony Romo should have a much better second WR in Dez Bryant than he had in Roy Williams last year. I think these two changes lead to the Cowboys finishing out their drives for touchdowns more than last year, and their offense very much reminds me of the Saints going from 2008 into 2009 in that sense. Some people are concerned about the Cowboys losing Flozell Adams at Left Tackle, however I believe that this loss will barely have an impact if at all. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys are a very similar unit to last year with no changes I would consider major. Their numbers at the end of the season will probably be in the same area as where they wound up last year, and as the #1 defense in scoring efficiency in 2009 I feel very good about that. The Cowboys have all the pieces for a deep playoff run, but despite a somewhat tough schedule won't completely run away with the division. Worst the Cowboys finish is 10-6, I think 11-5 is very doable again though.

Predicted Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9.5

New York Giants
Win Line: 8.5
Odds to win division: +275

The 2009 Giants started the year on a very good note, opening up with a 5-0 start before collapsing down the stretch and finishing the year 8-8. Their rushing game took a big step back as they were only 17th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and their defense let them down by ranking below average in both yards per rush attempt and pass attempt, while also ranking dead last in defensive scoring efficiency. Basically, it was way too easy to score points on them.

The Giants' brightest spot in 2009? The passing game, which should be just as good if not better in 2010 with both Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks starting for the Giants at WR, providing Manning with a couple of reliable options to keep drives alive. At RB, Brandon Jacobs should be able to at least slightly improve from his dismal 3.7 yards per carry in 2009, but whether he'll return to his 2008 form remains to be seen. The offensive line for this team is also as good as ever, leading me to believe we'll be seeing a few more points put on the board by the Giants in 2010. On defense, the big loss of the offseason for the Giants is Antonio Pierce, which is definitely a blow. However, their defensive line looks like it should be much better this year with a couple of their players getting healthy finally, and the arrival of rookie Jason Paul-Pierre who is drawing rave reviews thus far. The Giants also added Safety Antrel Rolle this offseason, which should bolster their secondary and shore up their pass defense a bit. The 2010 Giants look to be much closer to their form beginning the 2009 season than they were towards the end, and if this team can stay healthy this year and a few things break their way they could give the Cowboys a run for their money. I'm not entirely convinced that's how things play out though, and we likely see the Giants fall prey to their brutal schedule in the end.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

Philadelphia Eagles
Win Line: 8.5
Odds to win division: +275

The 2009 Eagles are a tough team to judge looking back on as they finished 11-5, yet benefited from a very soft schedule. The only team they beat that had an above .500 record was the Falcons, and that was in a week in which the Falcons were decimated by injuries. Not only that, but every single loss the Eagles had was to a team with an above .500 record. So, I have no choice but to wonder if this team was really as good as their record indicated. Offensively, their numbers were slightly above average both passing and rushing the ball, but on defense their pass defense was 4th best in the league while their rush defense was ranked 14th.

2010 is the start of a new era in Philadelphia as the Eagles have a new QB at the helm, Kevin Kolb. Kolb started two games in 2009 for the Eagles, dominating the Chiefs' poor pass defense in one game and getting picked off three times against the Saints in the other. I have a feeling that the 2010 season will be full of ups and downs such as this, but overall with the same weapons around him as McNabb had, the passing numbers should be about the same as last season. There's been a big change to the running game as well as Brian Westbrook is gone, turning the rushing game over to LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell. With Westbrook limited in 2009 this is again a change that shouldn't show up too large in the stats however, and the Eagles should also have similar rushing numbers with this duo as they had last year. Overall I think the offense may have a bit more trouble closing out drives and won't put up quite as many points as last year, but that should be about the only step back we see from them this coming season. On defense there are a lot of new faces as well, but the most notable change may be the return of MLB Stewart Bradley. The Eagles did lose Sheldon Brown this offseason however, which you expect will hurt their pass defense at least a little bit. This defense isn't quite as much about the personnel as it is the style however, as they tend to play a similar style to the Saints in the sense that they constantly crank up the pressure to try and generate turnovers. When all is said and done however, the Eagles face a MUCH tougher schedule than they did in 2009, and it's going to be a tough first year in the Kevin Kolb era. I'll give them a slightly optimistic prediction with a .500 record, however finishing slightly worse wouldn't surprise me.

Projected Record: 8-8
Total Play: UNDER 8.5

Washington Redskins
Win Line: 7.5
Odds to win division: +600

The Redskins really struggled in 2009 posting a dismal 4-12 record, which led to them making some much needed changes. Mike Shanahan comes in as the new coach for the Redskins this season, but the most notable offseason move has to be the acquisition of QB Donovan Mcnabb from the Eagles. However, I'm not a huge believer that this move will significantly help the Redskins. Mcnabb has always had some issues with accuracy, completing a very similar percentage of passes compared to former QB Jason Campbell, and this coming season he won't have the level of talent on offense surrounding him on offense as he did in Philadelphia. The only benefit I really see coming from this is that Mcnabb will turn the ball over less than Campbell did, but the team should be right around average in yards per pass attempt just as they were in 2009. At RB, Clinton Portis is still listed as #1 on the depth chart, with Larry Johnson backing him up in what will likely be a running back by committee situation. I don't expect Willie Parker to contribute much as I believe he doesn't have much left to offer in his career. The running game may be slightly improved compared to their ranking of 27th in 2009, however Larry Johnson probably doesn't bring a whole lot to the table that will offer a viable solution. The improvement at the offensive line alone should account for any improvement however as they drafted LT Trent Williams in the first round.

On defense, the Redskins were 15th against the pass and 10th against the run in 2009, decent numbers but definitely room for improvement. The addition of Jim Haslett as defensive coordinator will likely help with this improvement, however I'm not convinced the Redskins have the necessary personnel to do so. There is a lot of speculation surrounding the future of Albert Haynesworth, whether or not he's present on this defense will make a big different. The Redskins have acquired DE Adam Carriker however, and it'll be interesting to see how he performs returning from spending the year on the IR in 2009. While all these offseason moves are a good first step to returning the Redskins to legitimacy, it won't be enough for the team to compete this year.

Projected Record: 7-9
Totals Play: UNDER 7.5

2010 Projected NFC East Standings:
Cowboys: 11-5
Giants: 9-7
Eagles: 8-8
Redskins: 7-9

NFC East Plays:
Cowboys to win division +110
Cowboys OVER 9.5
Eagles UNDER 8.5
Redskins UNDER 7.5

NFC South Division Predictions and Win Totals

2010-06-28T20:19:00.000-07:00

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South (Reading Now)
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

Let me start by apologizing for the lengthy break since my last writeup. I've been quite busy lately and will continue to be, so I'm going to scrap the initial announced dates for the remaining divisions and just get to them as I can. One further note before moving on, when I broke down the AFC North I recommended the Steelers OVER 8 as a play, however for those of you who haven't placed any totals bets yet I no longer can recommend this play. Steelers RT Willie Colon suffered a season ending injury today, and this will definitely impact the offense this season. The Over wager no longer looks like a safe play, so I recommend staying away. We'll start back up with the NFC South, where the Saints look to defend their Super Bowl and Division titles. With win totals and division odds are taken from sportsbook.com, here's how I see the division breaking down this year:

Atlanta Falcons
Win Line: 9
Odds to win division: +200

The injury plagued Falcons struggled in 2009, yet still managed to finish the season with a winning 9-7 record. There's no question that injuries to RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan slowed this offense down a bit, yet it was the defense that was the biggest problem as it ranked 25th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. On offense the team was the definition of average, ranking 16th in both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt.

This coming season, I expect a big year out of the Falcons offense, as long as Turner and Ryan can keep themselves healthy. Turner will be reporting this season in much better shape than last, and the Falcons should be a bit more conscientious of not overworking him. Ryan also should continue to find success with WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzales, 26+ TD passes out of him wouldn't surprise me at all. On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons didn't do anything to improve their defensive line, however they did add OLB Sean Weatherspoon in the draft this year. They've also revamped their secondary, as they've added CB Dunta Robinson to the unit in an attempt to shore up the pass defense a bit more. I'm not sure the Falcons have done quite enough with their defense, however it should be at least a small step forward from where they were last season. I think the Falcons get over the hump and take at least one from the Saints this season, and with what appears to be one of the easier road schedules, I think the Falcons have a chance at overtaking the Saints for the NFC South title, making the +200 odds worth a shot.

Predicted Record: 10-6
Total Play: OVER 9

Carolina Panthers
Win Line: 7.5
Odds to win division: +550

The Panthers found a way to finish at 8-8 in 2009, despite an abysmal start from QB Jake Delhomme. After deciding they had grown tired of Delhomme and his constant turnovers, the offense was handed over to QB Matt Moore, who led the Panthers to a 4-1 finish, throwing over 7 yards per pass attempt while he was at it. Passing problems aside, the Panthers ran the ball as well as ever, ranking 3rd best in the NFL in yards per rush attempt. Their biggest weakness was their rush defense however, ranking 25th in the NFL and giving up a whopping 4.5 yards per carry.

With Moore back at the helm in 2010, the Panthers have to feel like they have a chance to move forward. Moore took much better care of the ball than Delhomme, throwing 8 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions, and should continue to this coming season. Williams and Stewart should keep this running game as fearsome as ever, and I'd be surprised if it didn't rank among the best in the NFL again. The biggest problem the Panthers face on offense is the lack of WRs, as Steve Smith has broken his arm yet again and you have to figure that his health will be a concern most of the season. After Smith it's much more unclear who the Panthers will turn to, and you have to figure this will limit their passing game. On defense, the Panthers have completely remade their defensive line, with their most notable loss being Julius Peppers. You have to think that this will negatively impact their defense, and I see the Panthers unit as a whole taking a step back from 2009. The questions at WR and on defense make this team hard to back, and combined with a tough 2010 schedule I see a slightly worse record in the end for the Panthers.

Projected Record: 7-9
Total Play: NO PLAY

New Orleans Saints
Win Line: 10.5
Odds to win division: -160

2009 was a dream season for the Saints, as they dominated almost the entire year and wound up Super Bowl champions when all was said and done. The Saints were a team with problems though. They frequently had defensive starters injured, sometimes missing three or four guys at once. Even healthy, the rush defense had to have been their biggest concern, as it ranked 23rd in yards per rush attempt allowed. The defense's ability to generate turnovers made up for this deficiency however, and the high flying offense always seemed to be able to put enough points on the board to win in the shootouts.

2010 I'm a bit less optimistic about the Saints' chances. At RB, the loss of Mike Bell may hurt the rushing attack a bit, although they still have Reggie Bush as a dynamic receiver out of the backfield and Pierre Thomas to be their primary rusher. The health of Shockey will play a role in how high this offense can fly, as it definitely seemed to be a bit more limited without him in the lineup. QB Drew Brees will still have plenty of targets to choose from however, and this should again be a top three passing attack. My biggest concern for the Saints is on defense. A lot of times when a team relies on turnovers like they did in 2009, you tend to see a sharp decline the following year. To generate that many turnovers again would be a very tough pace to keep up. Furthermore, although the Saints may have added Alex Brown on defense, I don't think he'll fully make up for the loss of Scott Fujita and Charles Grant. There is also some concern about Sharper as he comes off of knee surgery. The pass defense should be very good once again, however I think the rush defense will continue to struggle in 2010. Combine that with a few less bounces going their way, a tougher schedule, and some tough road games (I'm still not convinced this team plays at a high level on the road), and I think the Saints are set up for a big step back in 2010. They should still be a playoff team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them fighting for the division in Week 17. -160 odds aren't good enough to back this team, and I see 10 or 11 wins for the Saints. Right now, I'll project them a bit lower with just too many unanswered questions about their defense and their offensive line (a couple players are holding out).

Projected Record: 10-6
Total Play: NO PLAY

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Line: 5.5
Odds to win division: +1500

Tampa had a very forgettable 2009, finishing with just a 3-13 record. It's tough to narrow down the team's problems, as they ranked poorly in almost every major category. On offense, the team was 26th in yards per pass attempt and 24th in yards per rush attempt, and on defense they were 23rd in yards per pass attempt and 32nd in yards per rush attempt. QB Josh Freeman struggled, throwing almost 2 interceptions per game, yet the Bucs look to start him in 2010. RBs Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward will hold down the rushing game in 2010, and I expect them to take a step in the right direction and get this rushing attack ranked better than last year. At WR, the Bucs will look to two rookies to carry the load, Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. Both WRs have quite a bit of hype surrounding them, and with Kellen Winslow at TE I think this passing game will improve as well, giving the Bucs a good chance at a better offense than last season. On defense, the Bucs tackled their rush defense problems by drafting Gerald McCoy, who should come in and immediately help this struggling unit. However, overall this will once again be a poor defensive unit. However, with what should be a bit easier of a schedule and an improved team, I think the Bucs can double their win total from last season.

Projected Record: 6-10
Totals Play: NO PLAY

2010 Projected NFC South Standings:
Falcons: 10-6
Saints: 10-6
Panthers: 7-9
Buccaneers: 6-10

NFC South Plays:
Falcons to win division: +200
Falcons OVER 9

AFC South Division Predictions and Win Totals

2010-05-31T13:43:00.000-07:00

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South (Reading Now)
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

We move on to the AFC South this week, which has been mainly dominated by the Colts the past few years. Teams like the Titans and Texans look to be on the rise this year, but can either improve enough to beat out the Colts for the division? Here's how I see things breaking down in the South this year:

Houston Texans
Win Line: 8.5
Odds to win division: +350

Houston finished 2009 with their first winning season in team history, barely missing the playoffs with a 9-7 record. However, Texans followers were left with the feeling that the season could have been so much more. On a number of occasions the Texans gave away games, whether it be by a last minute costly turnover, or by a missed field goal. It's pretty safe to say that this team was better than it's record. The success of this team came mostly from it's passing game, as it's rushing game took a big step back in 2009. Steve Slaton has since lost the weight he put on in hopes of getting his 2008 form back. Foster also looked to be an explosive back with potential towards the end of the season, and we'll probably see an improved running game out of the Texans in 2010 that has solved it's fumbling problems.

The defense for this team is a bit of a concern early on with Cushing suspended for four games, however I don't think his absence will doom this team and a 2-2 start is very reasonable. CB Kareem Jackson should help this pass defense take a step forward from where it was last year, and if Mario Williams can stay a bit healthier this season he could have more of an impact than he did last year. What I think hurts this team in the end is the brutal schedule they face. I believe this team will be improved from where it was last year, but they're going to have to get the job done against much tougher teams. Given their tendency to give games away last year, it's hard not to see that happening again this season, though I doubt it happens as often. I could see the Texans finishing with anywhere from 7 to 11 wins, making any total bet pretty dangerous. Their +350 odds are definitely worth considering for the division title as it presents decent value, but it all boils down to whether or not you think they can close out games better this season. I think in the end the schedule will be too tough, and we'll see the Texans falling just short yet again.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

Indianapolis Colts
Win Line: 11
Odds to win division: -160

The 2009 Colts cruised to a 14-0 start before mailing in the final two games of the season to try and rest up their starters. They finished with a 14-2 record, and came up short in the Super Bowl in a loss to the Saints. All around the Colts were a very strong team, with a well above average defense and one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. The biggest flaw one could find with this team would be the rushing attack, which ranked 30th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt. This really wasn't a problem for the team however as Manning was able to keep the chains moving passing the ball without much problem.

When you look at this team going forward in 2010, there's no denying that this lack of a rushing attack still exists. The Colts didn't really add anyone to help give themselves a more explosive running game, and as a result probably will rely mainly on the pass yet again next year. The Colts will have WR Anthony Gonzales returning from injury this season though, giving them even more depth in an already deep pool of wide receivers. Dallas Clark should also have another productive season at tight end, and this passing game will be as dangerous as ever. On defense, a lot of the same players are in place, although it is notable that Bob Sanders is coming out of the offseason healthy for the first time in a while. It probably isn't practical to expect him to play all of the games this season given his history, but I'd expect he'll play in more than just the two he played in last season. The defense should be at a similar if not slightly higher level than it was last year. My biggest concern for the Colts this coming season is the fact that they face a much tougher schedule than last season. The Titans and Texans should be improved, and I think we may see a 4-2 division record this season as opposed to their stellar 6-0 record last season. Out of division presents four to six tougher games as well, so I don't see another run at perfection like last season. This is still probably the strongest team in the AFC South though, and I think the Colts will snag the division title again by a narrow margin.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: NO PLAY

Jacksonville Jaguars
Win Line: 7.5
Odds to win division: +900

The Jaguars mustered a 7-9 record in 2009, despite being very poor statistically in a couple of key areas. Jacksonville found themselves ranked dead last in pass defense, although part of that could be attributed to playing in the same division as the Texans and Colts. The Jaguars were also well below average in yards per pass attempt on offense, which negated their great rushing attack and made them the 8th worst team in the NFL in PPG. Combine that with the fact that they were 6th worst in the NFL in points allowed per game, and it's quite surprising their record didn't turn out worse.

2010 brings back a very similar offensive unit for the Jaguars, as Garrard is still the QB for the team and the offense will likely run through RB Maurice Jones-Drew yet again. Aside from Jones-Drew, this offense is still lacking the weapons to be explosive though, and I expect another season where this team struggles to put points on the board. The Jaguars had a couple of big additions on defense this season, acquiring DE Aaron Kampman and MLB Kirk Morrison. However, the Jaguars also released DT John Henderson, and did their best to fill that hole drafting rookie Terrance Knighton. What we'll see out of Kampman remains to be seen as he's coming off of ACL surgery, and Knighton has some pretty big shoes to fill and likely will struggle to his first year in the league. The Jaguars still have a huge weakness in their secondary this season as well, and will probably struggle against the pass yet again. I don't think the Jaguars can beat the Texans both games this year, and I think we're looking at a best case scenario of a 2-4 division finish for this team, with 1-5 much more likely. The Jaguars drew a bit easier of a schedule than the rest of their division opponents, but in the end I don't think that this will be a successful team this year and they'll likely find themselves in last place in the division yet again.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: UNDER 7.5

Tennessee Titans
Win Line: 8.5
Odds to win division: +350

The Titans are a very interesting team to try and figure out. After a sluggish 0-6 start, the Titans posted an 8-2 record under QB Vince Young. Throwing out those six games that Collins started, the Titans were the #1 rushing team and #11 passing team, putting up the 8th most PPG in the NFL. Tennessee's main struggle was on defense, as they were 28th against the run and 13th against the pass.

2010 is tough to predict for the Titans, partially due to Chris Johnson's contract situation. Johnson is currently making less base salary than his backup, and appears ready to hold out because of it. Whether or not Johnson misses any kind of time obviously is a huge factor in the success of this team, but for this writing I will assume the Titans work something out with him and he's back with plenty of time to spare. WR Kenny Britt showed flashes of potential in 2009, and in 2010 he'll hopefully avoid the Sophomore slump and give Young somewhere to throw the ball. The offense should function similarly to 2009 though, with it running through Johnson and Young being used sparingly to get things done with his arm. On defense, first round draft pick Derrick Morgan should provide a fairly immediate help to the unit, and Cortland Finnegan should return healthy this season to help shore up the pass defense a bit more. The defense should take a step back towards it's 2008 form, however I doubt it reaches quite that level again. The Titans need a lot to go right to win the division, and I just don't think that they have what it takes to get the job done.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

2010 Projected AFC South Standings:
Colts: 11-5
Texans: 9-7
Titans: 9-7
Jaguars: 6-10

AFC South Plays:
Jaguars UNDER 7.5
Colts to win division: -160

AFC East Division Predictions and Win Totals

2010-05-25T23:18:00.001-07:00

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East (Reading Now)
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

We're on to Part 3 of our 8 part installment of breaking down each division for the 2010 season. As usual, win lines come from the Venetian and odds for winning the division come from sportsbook.com. This week brings us to an interesting division that should be much improved from last year, the AFC East. I believe this division may be a little more clear cut than some people think though. Here's how I see the East playing out:

Buffalo Bills
Win Line: 5.5
Odds to win division: +2000 (20-1)

I think it's safe to declare the Bills dead before their season even starts. Cursed by a brutal schedule and three teams in their division that are better than them, it's hard to see how the Bills can manage a .500 record, let alone a division win. Trent Edwards remains this team's starting QB, despite having just 24 tds to 25 ints over the course of his career. Normally I'm an optimist when it comes to young quarterbacks improving as they age, however Edwards has nobody besides Lee Evans to throw the ball to now that Terrell Owens is gone. Defenses have shown in the past that they can shut Evans down, and last time he was #1 receiver on the team he only managed to score three touchdowns. The running back situation is a bit confusing right now as Marshawn Lynch is still on the team, however he's listed last on the depth chart and I assume he'll be traded before the start of the season. That leaves Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to compete for playing time, and although I believe the presence of Spiller will help bring up the Bills' rushing numbers slightly, I doubt it'll be a dramatic improvement. With McGee still at CB the Bills should still be decent against the pass, but I expect that their #3 pass defense in yards/pass attempt will take a step back as they have big concerns at strong safety. A 6-10 team last season, I see the Bills as a team that has taken a very small step back from where they were last year. Combined with a much tougher division this year (I expect a 1-5 division record at best) and a much tougher schedule (facing the NFC North and AFC North), I see the Bills posting a dismal record and ending the year in the bottom of the AFC East.

Projected Record: 4-12
Total Play: UNDER 5.5

Miami Dolphins
Win Line: 8
Odds to win division: +300 (3-1)

The 2009 Miami Dolphins struggled to a 7-9 record last season, although they were 7-7 under QB Chad Henne. The Dolphins continued to maintain their reputation as a run first team (5th most rush attempts per game in the NFL), and managed to be effective as well as they ranked 10th in yards/rush attempt. The passing game left something to be desired, 23rd in the NFL in yards/pass attempt, however they were a very poor defensive unit which was a big reason that they struggled. They allowed the 8th most PPG in the NFL, and although they were only slightly below average against the run, they ranked 28th in the NFL against the pass.

As far as addressing weaknesses goes, the acquisition of WR Brandon Marshall was a great start to fixing the passing game for the Dolphins as he's currently one of the best receivers in the game. With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams returning at RB, and Marshall now joining this offense, the Dolphins should improve upon the #23 ranking in PPG last season. The problem I see for the Dolphins in 2010 is that it looks like their defense has taken a step back from 2009, a big issue considering it's struggles noted above. They've lost Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, raising some questions as to who will step up at the Linebacker position this season for them. This duo accounted for 15.5 of the team's 44 sacks last season, and I have a hard time believing that their absence won't be felt. In their secondary, the Dolphins really haven't added any new guys, so how does this pass defense see a dramatic improvement? In the end I see the defense being too much of a liability for this team, and although the offense should improve the Dolphins are in for a mediocre 2010. Save your money and stay away from picking them to win the division, as 3-1 odds offer no value whatsoever.

Projected Record: 8-8
Total Play: NO PLAY

New England Patriots
Win Line: 9.5
Odds to win division: +125 (1.25-1)

The Patriots were one of the more inconsistent teams in the league in 2009, winning the AFC East with a 10-6 record before getting blown out in round 1 of the playoffs. There's no doubt injuries hurt this team down the stretch, but if you look at their entire regular season their best win of the season was quite possibly against the Ravens in Week 4, and in that game one of the Ravens' wide receivers dropped the would be winning touchdown. The Patriots beat a lot of teams that really just weren't that good, and struggled to get the job done against the better teams in the league. Of course, a big part of this can be attributed to Brady coming off of his knee injury and struggling to find consistency all year. But have the Pats made the right moves for 2010 to keep their hold on top of the AFC East?

Obviously, Brady should be a bit more comfortable this year another year removed from his knee injury. He looked like two different Quarterbacks at times last year, and we should see more of the Tom Brady we remember from 2007 this coming year. However, Brady will have a tough time as he'll likely be without Welker for the beginning of the season, and although the Patriots added Holt at WR, I'm not sure he has much left to offer in the NFL. The Patriots' rushing game was abysmal last season, ranking 26th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and they've done absolutely nothing to fix that this season. The Patriots also ranked poorly in pass and rush defense, however they managed to keep the damage minimal as they ranked 6th in the NFL in points allowed per game. This season, the loss of Jarvis Green could hurt this unit and I expect the Patriots to allow a few more points per game than last year, while defensive yardage allowed stays about the same. When it comes down to it, the Patriots are a team that wins through the air. With that being what the Jets specialize in shutting down, a sweep of the Patriots this season would not surprise me at all (Welker was the key piece in last year's win for the Pats, who knows what kind of shape he'll be in after he returns). Combined with a much tougher schedule than last year, I think the Patriots come up short this season in the AFC East.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

New York Jets
Win Line: 9.5
Odds to win division: +140 (1.4-1)

In 2009, the Jets were pretty much handed a playoff spot as the Colts and Bengals both mailed in games against them, leaving them with a 9-7 record. The team was phenomenal on defense, as they were the #1 passing defense and #5 rushing defense in the league, and on offense they were the #6 rushing offense. The biggest issue for the Jets was the passing game, as rookie QB Mark Sanchez had a very ugly stretch of games in the middle of the season in which he threw most of his interceptions. Ultimately the Jets lost in the AFC Championship game to the Colts, as Peyton Manning proved too much for the defense to overcome.

The Jets enter the 2010 season with lofty expectations, deservedly so in my opinion. The pass defense looks to have improved, hard to believe given their #1 ranking last year, but the addition of Cromartie and Wilson give the Jets three amazing cornerbacks. Not only that, but the defense has also added Jason Taylor from the Dolphins, and will have Kris Jenkins returning from an ACL tear last season. This will be an elite unit once again, and probably the best defense in the league. The questions the Jets have to answer are on offense. You have to think that Sanchez will improve from last year, he showed flashes of potential throughout the season and put a few great games together. He also gave a few away by failing to take care of the ball and struggling with accuracy, but I believe he will have less games like that this season. Santonio Holmes will give him one more weapon to work with (after his suspension ends), and the Jets now have one of the deeper WR corps in the NFL with Edwards and Cotchery behind him. There are also some questions about whether or not the running game can be as effective without Thomas Jones, but from what I saw last year Greene was a much more effective back and Tomlinson should be able to help take some of the load off. Although Tomlinson may not be the great RB he once was, he will certainly do more in New York than he did behind the awful offensive line he had to play behind last year. The Jets are the class of the AFC East and possibly the NFL, although there is always the possibility of a team like the Colts that could topple them because they have so many weapons on offense. However, not crossing the Colts in the regular season and with a lot of teams on their schedule that rely heavily on the pass, I think the Jets can get off to a hot start and cruise to the AFC East title.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9.5

One final note, betting both the Jets and the Patriots to win the East will very likely result in a small profit, as I feel like you can count out the Dolphins and Bills. With the odds at +140 and +125, a bet on each would be the safest approach. I'm sticking with my gut and going with the Jets however, so here's a recap of all my picks this writeup:

Jets OVER 9.5
Bills UNDER 5.5
Jets to win AFC East +140

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays!

AFC North Division Predictions and Win Totals

2010-05-18T22:00:00.000-07:00

AFC West
AFC North (Reading Now)
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

Last week we took a look at the AFC West (linked above), this week we'll move on to the more competitive AFC North. Like last week, win totals lines are taken from the Venetian, the division odds are from sportsbook.com. Again, I've never tested my ability to pick futures before, and there are many factors along the way that could affect how this all plays out such as injuries or trades. So as usual if anyone chooses to bet on these don't go nuts. With that said, here's what I'm seeing for the AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens
Win Line: 9
Odds to win division: -110

The Ravens had a very up and down 2009 season, finishing out the year with a 9-7 record and losing in the second round of the playoffs. Early in the year, Flacco was playing well, and the Ravens' offense looked like a top 10 unit. However, his play declined down the stretch, although a good deal of the decline I believe can be attributed to a hip/quad injury he was playing through.

People who don't believe in the 2010 Ravens mostly cite Flacco as their reason, as there isn't a great deal of belief he can get the job done. Personally, I believe the Ravens have all the pieces in place to be an elite team in 2010. For starters, they significantly upgraded their wide receivers this offseason, as they added WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth. Boldin is already one of the best WRs in the game, and Stallworth offers this team a big play threat as he is one of the faster receivers in the league. RB Ray Rice, the brightest spot in the Ravens' offense last season, will still be out there as well. Rice ran for 5.3 yards per carry, and put up over 200o yards of total offense for the Ravens, over 700 of them receiving. Flacco will enter the year healthy and I believe playing at a high level once again, and with four great weapons (Boldin, Mason, Stallworth, Rice) I believe this is going to be a very explosive offense. On defense, the additions of Mount Cody and Sergio Kindle should keep this rush defense as nasty as ever, it was #1 in the NFL last year and should be in that neighborhood again. The weakness at CB still exists, but they've found ways to deal with it in the past and should have more than enough offense to make up for it this year. The Ravens look best to win the division, and should be set for a deep run in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9

Cincinnati Bengals
Win Line: 8
Odds to win division: +350 (3.5-1)

The 2009 Bengals surprised a lot of people, winning the AFC North with a 10-6 record before losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Jets. A big part of the Bengals' success was their much-improved defense, which was 7th against the pass and 6th against the run. It also seemed though that the Bengals had a lot of breaks go their way (aside from the Broncos' Week 1 miracle victory). The Bengals had down to the wire wins against all of their division foes at least once, and wound up sweeping the tough division.

Despite winning the North last season, I'm fairly certain that the Bengals fall short this year by a couple of games. Don't get me wrong, I do believe the Bengals have improved this year. They've added a much needed second wide receiver Antonio Bryant, and also Jermaine Gresham to help at the tight end position. This should help open things up for RB Cedric Benson, so I expect that he has another quality season. All of this put together should bring this offense up from its below average numbers last year, although it remains to be seen how significant the increase is. The problem I see for the Bengals is their tough schedule, it's the 4th toughest schedule this coming year in terms of teams' winning percentages last year. The Bengals draw the Chargers and Colts for their extra two games, while the Ravens draw the softer opponents the Broncos and Texans. I also don't think it's likely at all that the Bengals sweep the division again, I anticipate a 4-2 division record at best. With the tough AFC East and NFC South as their out of division opponents this season, I see the Bengals winning anywhere from seven to nine games. Given their improvements I'll give them the high end of that projection for now, but I'm not nearly confident enough in it to bet their win total as I see too much downside.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

Cleveland Browns
Win Line: 5
Odds to win division: +1200 (12-1)

2009 was a year to forget for the Browns, as they finished last in the North with a 5-11 record. In all honesty, the team wasn't even as good as the record indicated. This team was dismal on both sides of the ball, throwing for a league worst 4.4 yards/pass attempt, and ranking 29th in both rush defense and pass defense. Their brightest spot on offense was the rushing game, and even that was below average as the team ranked 19th in yards/carry. Joshua Cribbs did everything he could to help this team in the return game and on offense, but he wasn't able to win many games by himself.

The 2010 Browns find themselves with new pieces in place in key areas in 2010. They've finally found a new quarterback, as they picked up veteran Jake Delhomme this offseason. However, it remains to be seen if Delhomme can provide them the answer they're looking for. This is a quarterback who threw 8 touchdowns to 18 interceptions in 11 games, and one could argue that he had better receivers in Carolina than he does now. Rookie Colt McCoy could find himself playing before the end of the year, but I expect he'll struggle as almost every first year rookie QB does. RB Jerome Harrison finished the year out strong with 561 yards rushing in the last three games, however he did so against three of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. I'm not sure if I'm buying into him yet as a game changing running back, or if he can help keep the chains moving for this dismal offense. On the defensive side of the ball, Outside Linebacker Matt Roth is looking for a trade as the Browns aren't offering him the long term contract he's looking for, and if he were to leave this defense it certainly would be another step back for the struggling unit. Drafting Haden and adding Fujita should help this defense improve a bit though, it just remains to be seen how much. Overall, I think the offense is bound to move forward a bit from where it was last year, especially with Holmgren saying that Cribbs will play a larger role in offense. However, this team has no quick fix for its defense, and will probably be bottom 8 in points allowed per game again. The Browns may upset a superior team or two this season, but their tough home schedule is really going to limit what they can do this year. Ultimately, the Browns will find themselves at the bottom of the AFC North yet again as their tough schedule catches up with them, and although this team is improving I think the record takes a step back.

Projected Record: 4-12
Total Play: UNDER 5

Pittsburgh Steelers
Win Line: 8
Odds to win division: +200 (2-1)

The Steelers were a huge disappointment in 2009 as they failed to even make the playoffs coming off of their Super Bowl winning year. This was not a typical Steelers football team as they threw the ball more than they ran it, and their passing game was actually 5th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. The defense also was not the typical elite Steelers defense, finishing 17th in the NFL in points allowed per game. However, this can be attributed somewhat to injuries, as Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalou both missed the majority of the season.

2010 opens with a challenge for the Steelers as they have to play at least four games without QB Ben Roethlisberger. I expect it to be just four games, and looking at the quality of teams they play over that stretch I think they open up 2-2 or 1-3. The 2009 Steelers lived by the pass, and even if they get back to running the ball more the absence of WR Santonio Holmes will be felt on this team. Hines Ward is also getting up there in age, and given his history with hamstrings I'd be surprised if we didn't see him on the injury report and ultimately missing a game or two before the season is over. One of the biggest weaknesses for this team has always been the offensive line, and the addition of rookie Maurkice Pouncey should help solidify the unit. I still don't think we're looking at a great offense though, and the unit will probably take a slight step back from being 11th in PPG like they were last year. On defense, I have to think the squad will improve with the return of Polamalou and Smith, and should be difficult to score points on once again. I think the Steelers can make up for a lower level of play on offense with the improved play we'll see from their defense, and with a lot of their easier games coming after the return of Roethlisberger (Raiders, Bills, Panthers, Browns twice), the Steelers can salvage a winning record. I don't see this team doing any worse than 8-8, which would be a push for an over wager. Therefore, I think it's a play worth making as this team has more upside than downside.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: OVER 8

2010 Predicted AFC North Standings:
Ravens: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Bengals: 9-7
Browns: 4-12

AFC North Plays:
Ravens OVER 9
Browns UNDER 5
Steelers OVER 9
Ravens to win division -110

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays!

AFC West Division Predictions and Win Totals

2010-05-11T22:18:00.000-07:00

AFC West (Reading Now)
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

Hey everyone, we're now under four months away from the kickoff of the 2010 NFL season! As many of you are aware, odds for division winners and win totals for teams have begun popping up on some online sports books, as well as in Vegas. This year, I've decided to take a stab at some of these futures bets, as you saw last week when I did my Super Bowl write up. A quick note on that, consider the Packers as a team that I like now as well, I feel like there's some value there. I could go into a whole write up but I'll spare you until I touch on them again breaking down the NFC North. To help kill some of this time until the start of the season, I'm going to do a write up for each of the next eight weeks breaking down one NFL division at a time (With a little luck, we'll know whether or not Favre is coming back by the time I get to the NFC North). I'll be covering each team's win totals, while also looking at each team's odds to win their respective division. I'll start off this week with the AFC West, as this is probably one of the easiest divisions to break down. Win totals lines are taken from the Venetian, the division odds are from sportsbook.com.

A couple final notes, since it's the first year I'm trying futures bets, don't take my word as gospel. There's no guarantee I'll be as successful at these as I am at picking games each week, but I do feel my opinion could be beneficial to you guys, so do what you will with it. Also, just because I predict a team to have a win more or less than their win line doesn't mean it'll be a play for me. So, I'll have some instances where I say no play because I'm not confident enough that things will play out as I see them. So without further ado, here's what I'm thinking for the AFC West:

Denver Broncos
Win line: 7
Odds to win division: +500 (5-1)

I expect the Broncos to take a step back in a big way in 2010. This is a team that started the 2009 season 6-0, yet had a disastrous 2-8 finish and missed the playoffs. Through those first six games their defense was rock solid, #3 against the run and #4 against the pass. In their last 10 games their pass defense stayed solid at #6, however their rush defense returned to it's poor 2008 form and was ranked dead last in the NFL over that span. Combine that with their passing and rushing attack disappearing, and it's easy to see why they struggled so much to finish out the season.

In 2010, the Broncos find themselves in pretty bad shape. For starters, Brandon Marshall, a huge piece of their offense, is no longer with their team. Marshall was responsible for about 1/4 of the team's yards through the air, and about half of their touchdowns through the air as well. Although other receivers will step up, the loss will still be felt. Throw in a tough schedule, and I don't see much hope for the Broncos in 2010. 5-1 odds aren't good enough to risk betting this team to win the West, so save your money.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: UNDER 7

Kansas City Chiefs
Win line: 6
Odds to win divison: +600 (6-1)

The big offseason acquisition for the Chiefs was probably RB Thomas Jones. Although they got much needed help at safety with#5 draft pick Eric Berry, he certainly won't be enough to turn that defense around. The Chiefs found themselves near the bottom of the NFL against both the pass and run, ranking 27th and 29th. The brightest area for the Chiefs was running the ball in 2009, as they were 8th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt. I expect this to remain about the same in 2010, as Charles and Jones should be quite the duo at RB. However, their passing game was abysmal, ranking 29th in the NFL. With no major new pieces in place this season (No disrespect to TE Leonard Pope), one has to wonder how big of a rebound this unit can really have.

Playing the AFC South in 2010, you have to think the Jaguars really look like the only winnable game of the bunch. In division, the Chiefs should be able to take two or three games from the Raiders and Broncos, but I can't see them beating the Chargers. They could pick up a couple wins against their NFC West foes, and Cleveland and Buffalo are both teams that I can see the Chiefs beating in 2010 as well. Obviously you don't want to bet this team to win the division, even at +600, another to stay away from.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY

Oakland Raiders
Win Line: 5.5
Odds to win division: +650 (6.5-1)

I'm just going to spare you all the suspense and tell you now not to bet the Raiders to win the division. Shocker. However, things are looking up in Oakland as the JaMarcus Russell era is finally over. The Raiders were able to acquire Jason Campbell from the Redskins during the offseason, and in my opinion he should offer this team a bit of a boost on offense. The Raiders' big problem on offense is still the lack of wide receivers, as Heyward-Bey still is reported incapable of catching passes consistently. Chaz Schilens spent most of last year injured, but began to show flashes of potential towards the end of the year. It remains to be seen if he can be an impact player this coming season.

Oakland struggled on defense last year, as they were 7th worst against the pass and 8th worst against the run. 9th overall pick Rolando McClain should help patch up some of the run troubles, and with Asomugha still at Corner Back the Raiders' woes against the pass can't be too bad. This will probably still be a below average defense, but it should take a step up from where it was a year ago. The Raiders get a bit tougher of a draw than the Chiefs, as their additional two games are against the Dolphins and Steelers, which is why I can't predict them to pass up the Chiefs this season. However, I can see this team improving slightly from where it was a year ago.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY

San Diego Chargers
Win Line: 10.5
Odds to win division: -250

Like I said earlier, the Chargers are why this division is easiest to pick. Due to weak opposition and a strong offense, the Chargers are as close as you'll ever see me come to using the word "Lock" in one of my write ups. In 2009, the Chargers cruised to a 13-3 record, taking the AFC West with ease. However, this wasn't a team without flaws. For starters, their defense was 7th worst in the NFL against the run. Furthermore, their rushing offense was dead last in yards per rush attempt. Given these flaws, their 13-3 record looks all that more impressive in retrospect, and makes it a bit clearer why they lost to the Jets in the playoffs.

With the Tomlinson era having ended in San Diego, the door is opened for RB Ryan Mathews, who you have to believe will be able to do more for the Chargers than LT was able to last year. Sproles remains the #2 RB for the team, and will likely serve a similar function as last year. Mathews should help give this offense a bit more balance, and with Jackson and Gates still around, Rivers should lead an explosive passing offense again. The Chargers should do no worse than 5-1 in their division, and could easily sweep it. Six games on their schedule present potential challenges: @Colts, @Bengals, Patriots, @Texans, 49ers, Titans. Assuming they split these games and blow two games they should win, they're still an 11 win team. Looks to me like another easy AFC West title, making the -250 odds well worth a bet.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 10.5

2010 Predicted AFC West Standings:
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 6-10
Chiefs: 6-10
Raiders: 6-10

AFC West Plays:
Broncos UNDER 7
Chargers OVER 10.5
Chargers to win division -250

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays, see you all next week!

Super Bowl XLV Betting Recommendations

2010-05-02T14:12:00.000-07:00

With the NFL draft now completed, and the destination of most big name players determined, it seems as good a time as any to look ahead to Super Bowl XLV and consider some future bets. With 32 teams in the NFL, obviously without taking team talent into consideration you have 32-1 odds of picking the next Super Bowl champion. However, all of you are clearly smarter than that, and will be trying to find teams with a higher level of talent that present good value for the 2011 Super Bowl. The purpose of this write up is to give you all an idea of where I'm seeing value this coming season, and where I see potential traps that could suck you in. Going by the odds off of looselines.com, I'm going to make the assumption that none of you are seriously considering any of the bottom 16 teams to put your money on, leaving 16 teams to be considered as champion of Super Bowl XLV. Here are the current odds for these teams:

Colts: +600 (6-1)
Patriots: +800 (8-1)
Saints: +800 (8-1)
Chargers: +800 (8-1)
Cowboys: +1000 (10-1)
Vikings: +1000 (10-1)
Steelers: +1000 (10-1)
Packers: +1100 (11-1)
Eagles: +1200 (12-1)
Ravens: +1500 (15-1)
Jets: +1600 (16-1)
Falcons: +1800 (18-1)
Giants: +2000 (20-1)
Bengals: +2500 (25-1)

Obviously, some of these bets present more value than others. Here are some of my top choices for this coming season, as well as some teams that I believe you should stay away from:

Top Picks:

New York Jets

This is probably one of my favorite bets for the coming season. At 16-1, this pick offers a ton of value, and the only complaint one can really find with the team is that Sanchez is still a bit of an unproven Quarterback. Shonn Greene is an outstanding up and coming running back, and the veteran presence of Tomlinson will be a big help to this offense, even if he does turn out to be washed up and used sparingly. Also, the Jets have added Santonio Holmes to the team, and although he will miss the first four games of the season he'll be around when it counts at the end of the year, giving Sanchez another weapon in a squad of WRs that could already be considered deep. Meanwhile, this Jets' defense, which was #1 in yds/pass att. allowed last year, has added CB Antonio Cromartie to the squad. This pass defense will be incredibly tough against teams next year, and with the addition of Jason Taylor as well, this team will be very tough to score against. I believe that we'll see an improved Sanchez in 2010/2011, and with what will probably be the best defense in the NFL this team will have a real chance at winning it all in February.

Baltimore Ravens

We saw flashes of an elite offense out of the Ravens last year, although towards the end of the season Flacco struggled with a hip injury and the offense sputtered when it mattered. One of the biggest complaints against the Ravens offense was their lack of a wide receiver, and they certainly took care of that problem by acquiring WR Anquan Boldin this off-season. The threat of Boldin at WR should help open things up for already dangerous RB Ray Rice, who last season showed his versatility by racking up over 2000 total yards. Although the defense is aging, they did their best to address their lack of depth at CB during the draft, and I think this will be an above average defense against the pass next year, as well as continuing to be a top 5 unit against the run (they were #1 in yards allowed/rush attempt last season). With a strong defense and what could easily be a powerful offense, you have to see a lot of value in the 15-1 odds offered for betting the Ravens right now.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had a disappointing end to the 2009/2010 season as they failed to show up against the Vikings in the playoffs and wound up getting blown out. However, the talent of this team can't be denied. Dallas was above average against the pass and run on defense last season, and certainly has all of the pieces in place to be again in 2010/2011. On offense, they were #2 in yards/rush attempt, and with Felix Jones taking over this season as the featured back, you have to think that they have a good chance at becoming the #1 team running the ball overall. Even if Jones can't stay healthy, they have Marion Barber to back him up, who certainly is capable of carrying the load if need-be. The offense also offers a great deal of balance, as last season they were #6 in yards/pass attempt. With the acquisition of WR Dez Bryant in the draft, the Cowboys have added yet another weapon to what was already a powerful offense. The Cowboys struggled last season converting their yards into points at times, and often these are the teams that we see put it together the following season and make a deep run. I'll gladly take 10-1 odds on this team to win it all, as they could easily be one of the most talented teams in the NFL in 2010.

I believe that these teams stand above the other teams in the field, as they appear on paper to be the most complete squads in the NFL. However, there are currently many other teams that are being talked up as possible champions in 2010. Here are a few teams that I feel are being overvalued, and are likely to disappoint those who decide to bet on them:

Teams to Avoid:

New Orleans Saints

As many of you know, the Saints are probably my favorite team in the NFL. I'm a big fan of Brees and the offense that he runs, however I don't believe the pieces are in place for the Saints to repeat in 2010. For starters, I'll readily admit that they probably should have lost to the Vikings in the playoffs last year. The Saints' flaw all season was their inability to stop the run, and unfortunately I haven't seen them do a ton this season to fix that problem. With Fujita no longer on the squad, and Sharper possibly leaving, I see a weakening defense that won't be able to generate the incredible number of turnovers that they did last season. The offense will continue to put points on the board as always, but I believe we'll see a team closer to the 2008/2009 squad than last year's. I think this team makes the playoffs, however finds themselves eliminated before the Superbowl. 8-1 odds isn't a good enough price to pick this team, so stay away.

Philadelphia Eagles

One of the main reasons I have to include the Eagles here is because of the ridiculously low odds offered for picking them. QB play is becoming increasingly important in today's NFL, and with an unproven QB at the helm I'm not sure why anyone would want to lay 12-1 odds on this team to win it all. I personally am not even convinced that this team makes the playoffs, and if they do they'll more than likely be a wild card team and have to fight an uphill battle on the road in the playoffs. This offense will take a step back and the defense will continue to be right around average, maybe slightly better. That's not the formula for a Super Bowl team, so save your money and stay away from this pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Again, this is a team who's odds are way too low. I've seen them in other locations at as high as 20-1, but even at that price I wouldn't take them. First of all, Roethlisberger is suspended for 6 games, although that could get reduced to a 4 game suspension if he behaves himself. Even if he only missed four games, the Steelers open 2010 with a pretty tough slate of games. The Falcons, Titans, and Ravens are all teams that could very easily beat them without their #1 QB, and if faced with a 1-3 start I don't think that they can come back from that and make the playoffs. Last year this team thrived on the pass with a mediocre rushing game, and they really haven't done much so far to improve that phase of their game. Also, with losing Holmes due to trade, and now with Sweed possibly missing the entire season with an Achilles Tendon injury, how can this pass game be as good as it was last year? Getting their QB back still won't solve this team's problems, and I'm pretty confident in saying that this won't be a playoff squad, let-alone a Super Bowl champion.

That's about it for teams I have strong opinions again, remember that teams I like are simply teams that I feel offer value. Squads I didn't mention in write-ups I feel are priced about right, although I will note that I'm not a huge fan of the Colts at 6-1, I feel like you need odds a little higher than that for them. These recommendations won't count towards my record in 2010, however I look forward to looking back at them in February and seeing how they did. It's my first year trying to pick futures, so don't take my word as gospel and throw down a bunch of money on teams I recommended. As usual, make the final decision yourself and use common sense, and as always exercise good money management! I'll have a couple more off-season write-ups for team win totals and division odds before we kick off the 2010 NFL season, until then good luck to everyone betting NFL Futures or any other sports!

-Kroy

Superbowl Sunday Play

2010-02-01T22:49:00.000-08:00

Despite a rocky last few weeks, I'd venture to say that overall this was a successful 2009 season. My winning percentage will end slightly short of my 67% goal, but still to be anywhere above 60% is an accomplishment I can take pride in. I'll be spending this season as well looking for ways to improve next season, and hopefully have a new website up and running by the fall. As this season closes, if any of you would like to make a donation to help fund the building of my new site and for me to be tracked by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor, I'd greatly appreciate it! I'd like to thank everyone for sticking with me this year through the highs and the couple low points we experienced, and hopefully next season we can erase those low points altogether! Here's what I like this Sunday:

New Orleans Saints +5

I'm sure some of you aren't too surprised to see me on the Saints in this one as I've been a believer in them all season. However, I can assure you that any bias I may have towards them has been removed and I've done what I feel to be a thorough analysis on this one. I'm jumping on this line now because with it looking less and less likely that Freeney will play (or be anywhere near his normal self if he does), this line has started to drop. Regardless of how healthy he is though, the Saints would be a play for me in this spot.

When I look at stats to try and analyze a game, I do my best to remove games where one team or the other was at a disadvantage due to injuries or resting players. Obviously, the Saints' defense spent most of their games after playing the Patriots banged up on defense (and offense a bit with Shockey/Bush missing time), and the Colts had to have a couple games removed due to resting players and one game against a banged up team. So, I'm sure a lot of you are combing stats too looking for an edge, know that this is why my numbers might be different than some that you are seeing.

Let's start by looking at each team's passing matchups. These are two of the elite passing units in the NFL, with the Saints passing for 8.23 yards/attempt, and the Colts throwing for 7.57 yards/attempt (1st and 3rd in the NFL). Both teams played very similar quality of passing defenses, and each team's pass defense is among the elite in the NFL, the Saints allowing 5.71 yds/attempt and the Colts allowing 5.79 yds/attempt (6th and 8th in the NFL). Assuming Freeney can't go, this is obviously a knock to the Colts' defense, and should give the Saints an advantage of being able to send an extra receiver out if they don't have to double him. Also with Freeney out, it seems to me like the Saints will be able to generate more pressure on Manning then the Colts will be able to generate on Brees. Of course, as we've seen in previous weeks pressure can lead to bad decisions and turnovers. Although both of the QBs are among the best at taking care of the ball, the edge goes to the Saints here as well. Manning has averaged just over 1 interception per game, while Brees has averaged .7 interceptions per game. When you look at the defenses and their ability to generate turnovers as well, the Colts average 1.2 interceptions/game while the Saints average 1.92. Although past performance doesn't necessarily indicate future results, it can indicate which results are more probable to occur.

The rushing games of each team don't have any huge edge for one side or the other, but I have to think that the Saints have a slight advantage in this category too. The Saints have run for 4.66 yards/rush attempt this season, while the Colts have struggled mightily running for just 3.65 yards/rush attempt (6th and 30th in the NFL). The Colts' rushing attack offers the most intriguing matchup here, as the Saints have struggled against the run all year. The Saints' defense has allowed 4.64 yards/rush attempt, 29th worst in the NFL. Given the mediocrity of the two units facing each other here, I'm thinking that there really isn't much of an edge for either side. The Colts' run defense has been above average this year, allowing 4.06 yards/rush attempt, 11th best in the NFL. I think that we've got a better chance of the Saints being able to assert themselves on the ground than the Colts, which should give them the advantage of having to be less one dimensional.

Although there is some concern about the lack of Superbowl experience on the Saints' squad, this is a team with strong veteran leadership that I believe can overcome it. Besides, in a game where Manning will likely have to rely on young receivers such as Garcon and Collie, I don't see how you couldn't argue that they'll be impacted as well. I think this will be a great Superbowl, as neither team could be considered dead if they fall a couple scores back. I expect an exciting finish, and in my mind the worst case scenario for the Saints is a 4 point loss. Given that in my worst case scenario they still cover, I'm confident that this is the right play as is my system. Good luck to everyone with this final wager of the season, I look forward to starting all over again next year!

Round 3 Plays

2010-01-22T10:08:00.001-08:00

I apologize at the tardiness of my adding this second play. I would have sent it out yesterday, but I spent most of the day in bed feeling sick. As most of you know by now, the Colts play today, not yesterday as I originally mailed out by mistake. However, what day the game is on doesn't make me like the play any less. It's been a very shaky playoffs for me so far, as I've badly missed on a couple of plays and find myself with a losing record on the week for just the second time this year after round 2. I'm very disappointed with how things have gone these past couple of weeks, but I'm hopeful that I can still right the ship and hit the rest of my plays this season to salvage a winning playoffs. Here's what I like today:

Colts -7.5

In their first meeting, the Colts' starters put up 15 easy points (missed PAT and failed 2 point conversion kept it from being 17) on the Jets' defense before starters were yanked from the game early in the third quarter. In that game, the Jets were playing for their playoff lives and still unable to get much pressure on Manning or slow Indy's attack through the air. Manning threw for about 9 yards per pass attempt in that game, and had no trouble constantly finding an open man. Even last week the Jets showed a bit of a weakness in their secondary, as they allowed over 6 yards/pass attempt to Rivers and the Chargers. The Chargers simply beat themselves by trying to win the game through Tomlinson, who clearly is not the same back he once was. I think that the Colts are going to load up the box to stop the run, forcing Sanchez to beat them through the air. Given the fact that Indy allowed the 4th least yards/pass attempt in the NFL, I think that Sanchez won't be up to the task. The Colts should be able to get pressure on Sanchez, and I think we're going to see a few turnovers out of him that allow the Colts to put this game out of reach. Colts should cruise to the Superbowl with a double digit win.

Saints -3.5

As everyone knows, the Saints have been an elite passing unit all season, as New Orleans has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Although Minnesota's defense has been a bit streaky this year, one constant that can be taken away is that their main weakness is against the pass. Although Dallas only put up 3 points on them last week, they were moving the ball with ease before losing one of their key offensive linemen, they just were shooting themselves in the foot in true Cowboys' fashion in ways that would keep points off the board. I'm certain that those are drives we'll see the Saints be able to finish today.

When you look at the Vikings offense, they've been much better throwing the ball than running it this year. Minnesota is 9th in yards/pass attempt, and just 23rd in yards/rush attempt this season. If you look at just games where the majority of the Saints defense has been healthy, they are 5th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt allowed. The Saints have also excelled at covering opponents' #1 WRs, and if they can keep Sidney Rice limited, the Vikings are going to lose a lot of their offensive firepower. We know that Favre can be pressured into mistakes, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints force a couple of turnovers in this one as well that will help them put the game out of reach.

Round 2 Sunday Play

2010-01-16T21:02:00.000-08:00

I thought a bit about this one, but after some deliberation I've decided it's a solid play:

Cowboys +2.5

Dallas has been a very underrated team all season, as they're one of just two teams to be top 8 in both yards/pass attempt and yards/rush attempt (Saints are the other team). On offense, I like how their pass offense matches up with the Vikings' passing defense. Although the Vikings have had a solid pass rush so far this year, they still find themselves ranked 19th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Not only that, but the defense has played the easiest passing schedule in the NFL, which speaks volumes given the fact that they're still a below average unit against the pass. Facing the run, it is no secret that Dallas has one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the NFL. Although the Minnesota defense could do a decent job of limiting the damage Dallas does on the ground, the Cowboys should be able to muster enough offense on the ground to keep Minnesota honest and from focusing in on their issues in the secondary.

On defense, the Cowboys have shown quite a bit lately as they've shut down top notch units such as the Eagles and Saints. Minnesota has lost their identity as a running team as Peterson has struggled since early in the season, and the Vikings find themselves ranked 23rd in yards/rush attempt. Dallas has the 8th best rushing defense in the NFL, and should be able to keep AP and Taylor bottled up for most of the game. If Minnesota is to win this game, they'll have to do it through the air. Favre and the Vikings enter the game 9th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. This is not as spectacular as it appears however, as the Vikings have played the 9th easiest passing schedule in the NFL. The Dallas front 4 has been getting tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and we all know that Favre is a quarterback who can be pressured into mistakes. Having played the 7th toughest schedule against the pass in the NFL, Dallas is still an above average passing defense, and generates the 7th most sacks per game in the NFL. I expect them to have Favre frequently under pressure, and for some turnovers to put Dallas in command in this one. These are two teams headed in opposite directions, and when all is said and done we should see Dallas coming away with an outright win.

Round 2 Playoff Picks

2010-01-15T17:08:00.001-08:00

Well, after a disappointing first weekend, I'm looking to bounce back with some solid plays this round. Nobody could have seen the Bengals' poor defensive play coming, however that Under I released was just awful. It's rare I feel embarrassed by a play, but that was one of those cases. So, I'm going to do what I can to right the ship this week and get us another profitable week and back up to that 67% mark. Here's what I like this round:

Saints -7

I know a popular public play this week is Arizona +7, however I was keyed in on this play before I even knew the public percentages. Let's start by breaking down Arizona. For starters, I'm not going to read much into the offensive show they put on last week against the Packers, as the Green Bay defense was completely asleep. They were getting absolutely no pressure on Warner, and their receivers were constantly wide open. As well as Warner may have played, most quarterbacks in the NFL can succeed when they're throwing to wide open receivers. The Saints should have 10 out of 11 of their defensive starters healthy and ready to go in this one, the first time this can be said in many weeks. People read a lot into the regression of the Saints' defense since the Patriots game, but each week they've been holding out anywhere from 2-4 defensive starters due to injuries. They haven't been able to generate the same pressure on opposing QBs since then, and with the unit healthy again I expect them to get back to their strengths. Warner has shown that he's prone to turning the ball over when pressured, and with Boldin likely out, although it didn't impact the offense last week I expect it will a bit more in this one.

Defensively, the Cardinals have played one of the easiest schedules in the league as far as opposing pass offenses go. In games against top notch passing units, the Cardinals have been shredded this year, and against this spectacular Saints offense I don't expect this to change. Although the offense slowed a bit in recent weeks, the return of Jeremy Shockey should help them get back on track as he really does a lot for them out there, when not catching the ball then helping offer protection for Brees. I'm convinced that the Cardinals come back down to earth this week, and the Saints offense does their thing and puts 31+ points on the board. We should have an easy double digit win for the Saints, along the lines of 38-20.

Ravens/Colts OVER 44

The first time these teams met, there were a ton of points left on the field. My comments last week about the Ravens struggling against strong passing teams hasn't changed, last week I chalk the Patriots' struggles up to an injured Randy Moss and Wes Welker not playing. Brady didn't look great either, and played one of the worst games of his playoff career. Manning won't make the same mistakes as the Patriots did, and will be able to throw all over this questionable Baltimore secondary. Also, in the first meeting, the Colts only scored 17 points, despite throwing for over 9 yards per pass attempt. They suffered from three turnovers, and in this matchup I think that they'll take better care of the ball and put points on the board fairly easily. On the Ravens' side of the ball, although they're likely going to try to move the ball on the ground, I expect the Colts to force them into winning through the air. Baltimore had to settle for five field goals against the Colts in their first meeting, and this time around should find ways to get the ball into the endzone more frequently. I'm not sure who covers in this game, but either way I think we see a decent number of points on the board by each team, pushing this total over by about a touchdown.

For now, that's it. At the moment I don't have any strong reads on the Sunday games. I'll keep looking at the games into tomorrow night, but it's very possible I just keep it to these two plays this week. Good luck this weekend everyone!

Wild Card Weekend Plays (Part 2)

2010-01-09T21:25:00.000-08:00

Got the weekend off to a shaky start with the under in the Jets' game losing, but it's only one play and we have plenty of time to salvage the weekend. With two wild card games to go, here's what I'm liking tomorrow:

Patriots/Ravens OVER 43
Ravens +3

If you think back to the middle of the Patriots' season, there were some serious concerns surrounding their secondary. Before their meaningless game against the Texans, the Patriots' defense was looking much better, as they allowed 13.33 ppg over a three game span. However, given the quality of opponents they faced, it certainly is hard to make the case that they've fixed any of their issues. New England faced three teams ranked 21st or worse in yards/pass attempt over this span, so it's hard to read much into the positive results they've had lately. As things stand now, the Patriots have the 22nd worst defense in the NFL in yards/pass attempt allowed, which Flacco and the Ravens will be able to take advantage of. Furthermore, the Ravens currently are 4th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt, mostly due to the explosive playmaking of Ray Rice. The Patriots run defense is nothing special, ranking 18th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt allowed, so the Ravens should be able to keep the chains moving on the ground as well and put up a good number of points.

When the Patriots have the ball, they should be able to exploit the weak Baltimore secondary. New England is 7th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt, and the Ravens have allowed a whopping 7.65 yards/pass attempt this year against teams that are top 10 in the NFL in this category (6 games). Although the Patriots have lost Welker for the year, Edelman does a good job of filling his role and should be able to match his production fairly well. Against the Ravens' #1 rushing defense, the Patriots will have to focus their attack through the air, something that will both contribute to the over and hurt them I believe. If forced to become one dimensional, although they will still find ways to put up points, I think the Ravens will be able to dial up the pressure on Brady and force him into some mistakes, as he still does not look to be handling pressure too well this first season off of his injury. Points will be there for the Pats, but I don't think it will be enough points when all is said and done. Ravens should take this contest in a higher scoring game than most would think, 31-24.

Packers/Cardinals UNDER 47.5

This one doesn't require too long of a write up, the reasoning is pretty simple. The Cardinals enter this one allowing 5.61 yards/pass attempt, 5th best among NFL defenses. Although Green Bay tore them up through the air last week, the Cardinals didn't seem too interested in the game, and I doubt they were throwing a very complicated defensive scheme out there. I think Arizona should be able to slow down the Packers' attack through the air, which should effectively limit the number of points the Packers are able to throw on the board. On the Cardinals' side of the ball, they should have trouble generating offense against this solid Green Bay defense. The Packers are 8th best in yards/pass attempt against, and 2nd best in yards/rush attempt against in the NFL, and will frustrate Warner and the Cardinals' offense all game. I think this has the makings of a 24-20 game, which will keep the total under and hopefully seal out a winning day.

That's it for this round, best of luck everyone!

Wild Card Weekend Plays (Part 1)

2010-01-08T16:59:00.000-08:00

We're heading into the playoffs with a 50-25-1 ATS record, in what has certainly been a great season so far. Last year, the playoffs were good to me as I went 6-1 ATS. However, as far as I'm concerned, these numbers are in the past and there is no guarantee that going forward these playoffs will be good to us. So, as usual, let me remind everyone to manage their money wisely and not put more down on these games than they can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed in this business, and past results don't indicate future ones. Hopefully though, we won't have to worry about any negative consequences and we'll have another good playoff round. Here's what I like for Saturday, I'll send out Sunday plays tomorrow night:

Jets/Bengals UNDER 33.5

I wasn't thrilled to see this number move off of 34, I wasn't quite expecting that, but I'm sticking with this play as I don't think it makes a difference. For starters, the Jets head into a road playoff game with a rookie QB at the helm, who has had problems all year turning the ball over. You can be certain that Sanchez will make a mistake or two in this opening round, which should take some points off the board for the Jets. Also, although they didn't show it last week, the Bengals are an elite defense in the NFL. They are currently the 7th best in yards/pass attempt allowed, and 8th best in yards/rush attempt allowed, one of only three teams to be top 8 in each category. This defense rolled over against the Jets last week, and since the Jets had to win to get in, they were forced to tip their hand a bit. You can be sure that the Bengals will have an answer for Smith lining up in the Wildcat formation, and the Jets' rushing game will not put together a game like they did last week.

On the Bengals side of the ball, points won't be any easier. Chad Ochocinco will be blanketed by Revis all game, a huge problem for the Bengals as he accounts for 1/3 of their yards through the air, and almost half of Palmers' passing touchdowns. Ochocinco will almost certainly be shut down by Revis as most elite receivers have been this year, causing some major issues in the passing game for the Bengals. The other strength of Cinci's this year has been running the ball, and the rushing attack has not looked good in recent weeks. Even if they do show up, the Jets are 5th best in the league in yards/rush attempt allowed, so I doubt we see a ton of production on the ground out of the Bengals here. This game is set up to be very low scoring, and likely will come down to which QB takes better care of the ball. In the end though, I see this being a 13-10 kind of game.

That's it for Saturday, I'm laying off of everything else. Good luck to anyone who places any bets!

Week 17 Plays

2010-01-02T19:14:00.000-08:00

We're entering the last week of the NFL regular season, a week that is always a bit tough to cap. How motivated some teams are is always questionable, and then we've got the whole other issue of playoff teams resting guys. Last season I had a losing Week 17 as I did a poor job evaluating all of these factors, hopefully I learned something from it and will bounce back this year. However, for these wagers and any others you guys may make, I suggest going a bit lighter than usual this week and gearing up for the playoffs. With that said, here's what I'm liking this weekend:

Carolina Panthers -7

The Saints have made it pretty clear that they're just resting up for the playoffs in this one, with Brees being listed as their #3 quarterback for the game and anyone else with as much as a hangnail being rested. We've become familiar with the defensive issues the Saints have had the last few weeks with a couple defensive players out due to injury pretty much every game, and in this one I expect that it may look even worse with even more starters on the bench. The Panthers have started to hit their stride offensively lately, and with the Saints' running backs on the bench in this one, I don't think that the Panthers' 7th worst rush defense will be much of an issue. I think the Panthers cruise in this one, winning by double digits.

Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 38

The Broncos made the head scratching decision to bench Marshall this weekend, who accounts for a huge part of their offense. I think this has a big impact on Orton and the offense in this one, as we likely don't see the same offensive explosion out of the Broncos as we did the first time facing the Chiefs. Although the Chiefs' passing and rushing defense has been awful this year, I don't think that the Broncos' passing attack will be able to get a ton going without Marshall, and we won't see many of explosive plays out of them. Meanwhile, Denvers' defense may have looked vulnerable against the Eagles last week, but I think in a must win game at home their 2nd best passing defense and slightly above average rushing defense shows up and holds the sorry Chiefs down without much problem. All in all, I think this total is pretty safe to go under by about a touchdown.

Steelers/Dolphins OVER 45

This is another case of the Dolphins passing defense, 6th worst in yards/pass attempt allowed, going against a team that generates the majority of its' offense by throwing the ball (Pittsburgh is 5th in yards/pass attempt). This bodes pretty well for the Steelers to be able to have their way on offense, as I expect them to have a point total in the high 20s. In addition, I think Miami has a good chance at keeping up on the scoreboard, as recently the Pittsburgh defense has shown a real vulnerability in the passing game as well, and Miami is starting to hit their stride and generate offense through the air as well. Both teams are capable of hitting the mid 20s in this game, and I think this total gets pushed over with a final score along the lines of 27-24.

Minnesota Vikings -9

The Vikings have really struggled lately, yet I believe this is a big bounce back game for them. Minnesota suddenly finds themselves battling for a first round bye, and in a must win game if they want any hope of salvaging that goal. We all know the Vikings have been a much better team at home this year, as they've averaged just over 31 ppg, while allowing just over 18. While it's nice to have this on our side, I also think that Minnesota should bounce back this week because I believe that DT Pat Williams will be playing, who is a huge part of their line and allowing Minnesota to generate pressure on opposing QBs. The Giants should also suffer from the absence of RB Brandon Jacobs, while perhaps not being very motivated for this contest having just been eliminated from the playoff hunt. All in all, I think that this is shaped to be a double digit win from the Vikings as they get ready to head into the playoffs.

Week 16 Plays

2009-12-25T21:19:00.000-08:00

I've had what I consider to be a very disappointing last two weeks, despite still having a winning record over that span of 6-5-1. I feel like I've done a bad job filtering my plays, and I could have easily avoided some of those losers. So, I look to bounce back this week and get back to picking games at a higher level of success. I've fallen just a couple games off of my goal of 67%, so I'll have to really step it up to get back to that mark! Here's what I'm liking this weekend:

New England Patriots -9

The Patriots have feasted on weak passing defenses this year, and this is exactly what they'll face this week against the Jaguars, who are 4th worst in the league at yards per pass attempt allowed. Since the Pats are a bottom 8 team at yards per rush attempt, and the Jags are top 8 in the league on defense in this category, it seems clear to me that the Patriots will choose to focus their attack through the air and really exploit this weakness. I doubt points are a problem for them in this one. The question that leaves is how dangerous the Jaguars' offense can be, and if they can keep up. At home this year the Patriots are allowing under 14 ppg, and on the road the Jaguars are averaging slightly above 14 ppg. With the Patriots' biggest weakness being their pass defense, and Jacksonville ranking 20th in the league at yards per pass attempt, I don't think they'll be able to exploit the Patriot defense and New England should come away with a double digit win.

Houston Texans +1

Everyone knows that the Texans have struggled running the ball this year, with their greatest strength being passing (They rank 5th in the league in yards per pass attempt). So, when a team's greatest strength plays into their opponents' greatest weakness (Miami is 8th worst team in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed), I feel that there is a good opportunity for a win. Miami has allowed 31 ppg this year to teams that are top 8 in the league at throwing the ball, and I envision the Texans bouncing back from a dismal offensive performance last weekend against the Rams. Defensively, the Texans are average against the pass and slightly above average against the run, so I feel like the Dolphins offense will have some opportunities, but not as many as the Texans. I think the Texans will take this game and keep themselves alive for a playoff spot.

New York Jets +5.5
Jets/Colts UNDER 40.5

First of all, we don't know how much playing time the Colts' starters will be seeing in this game. It sounds like Freeney and Mathis will be used sparingly, and that it is quite possible Manning does not play the entire contest as the Colts continue to stress that 16-0 is not their goal. With Freeney and Mathis not on the field too often, I look for the Jets to advantage of their rushing attack (5th in yards per rush attempt), hopefully putting some long drives together and putting some points on the board. I'd expect that times the Jets start to get close would be when we're more likely to see Freeney and Mathis on the field, so the Jets may have to settle for field goals a few times. Meanwhile, when the Colts get opportunities, they certainly will have no easy task. The Jets have been one of the best defenses in the league, currently 5th best in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 1st in yards per pass attempt allowed. I expect them to frustrate Manning and really limit the Colts' opportunities to score, keeping this a defensive battle. In the end, whether Manning comes out of the game or not, I think we're likely to see a 17-13 type of game, with the Jets very possibly winning outright.

I'm going to hold it to that this weekend and see if getting more selective again can help right the ship! Good luck everyone!

Week 15 Plays

2009-12-19T13:31:00.000-08:00

For the second week in a row I find myself making more plays than usual, however I feel like there are quite a few opportunities out there this week. Hopefully, we can get a few more wins this time around. Here's what I like this weekend:

Texans -14
Texans/Rams UNDER 43.5

This game is pretty clear cut in my mind. The Houston defense has been playing much better lately, and the Rams offense has been terrible all year. Now that the team has been hit with Swine Flu, and won't have Steven Jackson in the game to aid them, their offense is really going to struggle moving the ball. Kyle Boller is questionable to play, however given his lack of practicing this week I'd be surprised to see him out there, leaving the Rams with their 3rd string QB yet again. The Rams' defense will struggle keeping the Texans' offense in check, and the only way I see this total going over is if the Texans push it over with a mammoth point total. Worst case scenario we split these picks and eat a little juice, but I think there's a great chance we win them both with the Texans winning with a score in the neighborhood of 31-10.

Browns +2
Browns/Chiefs UNDER 37

This is a pretty unique game in the sense that both teams are bottom 8 in the league in rushing and passing yards/attempt on both offense and defense! It's pretty abysmal to be so bad in those phases of the game on both sides of the field. However, lately the Browns have shown signs of righting the ship, as they upset the Steelers on Thursday night, and haven't turned the ball over in their last four games. The Chiefs meanwhile, have continued to struggle. In their last four games, their defense has been as bad as ever, and they've turned the ball over 7 times. The only thing they've done well lately is run the ball with Charles, and very quietly the Browns rushing defense has been a top 8 unit in the league over their last five games. I expect neither team to light up the scoreboard, but for the Browns to have more scoring opportunities as they'll take better care of the ball and give Cribbs more opportunities to make plays. Browns should win this game something like 16-10.

Tennessee Titans -5

It looks like Vince Young will be playing in this one, which I love considering that the Titans' passing offense is much better under him and the Dolphins have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Like every other team, they'll have to dedicate a lot of energy into figuring out how to contain Chris Johnson, which will hopefully leave the passing game wide open for Young. The Titans are still throwing the ball great, and the speedier backs have been the type that give the Dolphins trouble. As I've said in the past, the Titans' biggest weakness has been their rushing defense. However, lately the Dolphins have abandoned the wildcat formation, and in their last three games they've run for under 4 yards/carry. I think the Titans can have their way on offense in this one, and if the Dolphins find themselves forced into throwing the ball I think we'll see some turnovers as well. Titans should cruise to a win by two scores.

Saturday Night Football Play

2009-12-18T23:13:00.001-08:00

I'll be sending out an email with all my weekend plays in a bit, I'm running a bit behind on my writeups, but I just wanted to get this play out there first since the game is tonight:

Dallas Cowboys +9

Although people have been making a big deal about the Cowboys' usual December Swoon and all the problems they are having, I think the Cowboys have a legitimate shot in this game. The Saints have been very banged up on defense in past weeks, and this week doesn't look to be much better with a number of players questionable and Jabari Greer already ruled out. Teams have been moving the ball no problem against them lately, and although the Cowboys have struggled converting their yardage into points I think that this is the week where they finally start finding the end zone a bit more. I like the Cowboys to attack on the ground in this one, as Felix Jones and Marion Barber shouldn't have much trouble establishing a running game, and I think that the threat of these two should open up the passing game for Romo as well. Dallas should put some solid drives together to at least keep themselves in the game, perhaps with a chance to win it at the end. So, in this spot, I'll take the Cowboys and hope they can keep it within one score.

Good luck to everyone tonight!

Week 14 Weekend Plays

2009-12-12T12:09:00.001-08:00

Once again we hit the ground running with a Thursday Night Football win, and this week with a lot on the table that I'm liking, we're looking to have a big weekend to make it a very profitable week. Here's what I'm liking this weekend:

Broncos/Colts UNDER 44

So far this season, the Colts have been an offensive juggernaut. However, most of their production has come through the passing game as the rushing offense has struggled, and they have yet to face a team that is top 12 in the league in yards/pass attempt allowed. Denver certainly falls into this category, as they come into this contest ranked #2 in the NFL allowing 5.24 yards/pass attempt. Considering that Denver has the 7th best rushing defense as well, it's hard to believe that Addai will get going and be able to produce much on the ground for the Colts. The Colts will find ways to score as they usually do, however I feel that they may be settling for field goals more than touchdowns come Sunday, scoring in the neighborhood of 23 points.

On Denver's side of the ball, this year they've tended to disappear when facing good defenses. I think what's going to hurt them in this game is their lack of passing offense. This season they're throwing the ball for 6.13 yards/pass attempt, which is 17th in the NFL, slightly below average. The Colts have been the 8th best passing defense this season, leading me to believe that Denver will have some trouble airing it out. Denver likely knows this, which will lead them to turning their attack to the ground, as they have the 10th best rushing offense in the NFL. The Colts' rush defense is nothing special, ranking 15th in the NFL, so I feel like we could be seeing the kinds of drives out of Denver where they burn up a few minutes of clock and wind up punting. All in all, I'm not sure who comes out of this game covering the spread, but I'm confident that it stays a lower scoring affair, making the under the play.

Bengals +6.5
Bengals/Vikings UNDER 43

Very quietly, the Bengals have been a top notch defensive unit, and in my opinion could be the best defense in the NFL. The Bengals rank 6th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 5th in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 2nd in defensive scoring efficiency. Although they're matched up against the Vikings, a team that has scored the 2nd most PPG in the NFL, I'm not too concerned. This is because of the soft schedule that the Vikings have played so far. Minnesota has played two teams above .500 so far this year, the Packers twice, both wins, and then the Cardinals, who put them to shame last Sunday Night. Other teams in the neighborhood of being good that they've played would be the 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens, two wins they had to fight hard for and a loss. In this game, I think Minnesota will face yet another test, and while I don't necessarily believe they'll lose outright, it will certainly be a close game. Despite the Bengals being a run heavy team, they've shown that they can throw the ball when they need to as they rank 16th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. Should they find themselves unable to move the ball on the ground, I think Palmer and Ochcocinco can put some points on the board. However, in the process, I think the Bengals will find themselves facing a lot of 3rd and longs, which will hurt their ability to keep drives together so that they don't score too many points to push this total over. I think this is a sloppy game by both offenses, and stays lower scoring than people expect, with the Bengals covering in a hard fought game.

Titans -13

After a very sloppy loss on the road last week against the Colts, the Titans return home to face the struggling Rams this week. St. Louis has a history of playing much worse on the road, and that history has held true so far this season as they've averaged about 9 ppg on the road. Take out their two shutout losses, and they've still only managed about 13.5 ppg. Against this Titans defense, you would expect the Rams to put some points on the board since they have Steven Jackson, and the Tennessee rush defense has been so terrible. However, I expect Tennessee to focus completely on shutting Jackson down, letting Boller beat them. Unfortunately for Boller, the Tennessee passing defense is an above average unit, and should be able to create a couple of turnovers against him.

On offense, the Titans should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. They moved the ball against a much better Indy defense last week, but were unable to convert their yardage into points on the scoreboard. With Chris Johnson going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I expect the points to come a bit easier. Not to mention, Tennessee's passing attack should be able to get the job done as well as the Rams have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Finally, combine that with the 4th worst scoring efficiency defense, and the pieces are all in place for a blowout win by the Titans. I'm slightly concerned about the health status of Young, but right now the signs point to him playing. Even if he doesn't, I think Kerry Collins will be able to get the job done as he's had time to work with the first string offense this week.

Cowboys -3.5

At first glance this play looks like suicide given how hot the Chargers have been lately, combined with how streaky the Cowboys are. However, I'm convinced that this is a game that Dallas will win fairly comfortably. For starters, I think that this is the game where San Diego's lack of a rushing attack catches up with them. The Chargers currently are last in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and if they become one dimensional against a team as good as the Cowboys that will certainly affect their offense. Also, despite being 2nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, the bulk of those numbers have either come from home games or against weak teams. In the Chargers' three true road tests, the Giants, Steelers, and Broncos, their passing offense has mustered only 5.78 yards per pass attempt, a far cry from their overall figure of 8.06.

The Cowboys' shot at winning this game will rely heavily on their rushing offense. They currently are the best rushing team in the NFL, and matched up against the 11th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I like their chances to keep the chains moving. If Dallas can put some long drives together, the Chargers likely will also struggle to get into a rhythm on offense. I think that Dallas will get the job done in this contest, playing a solid defensive game and putting some points on the board on offense. I think Dallas takes this by a touchdown.

That's all I've got for this week, good luck to everyone who decides to wager!

2009-12-09T16:43:00.000-08:00

Hey guys! We cashed in our 6th straight winning week last week and we're looking to make it 7 in a row! I'm going to go ahead and release one play for Thursday Night, this play comes mostly from the weather conditions for the game. Here's what I like:

Steelers/Browns UNDER 33.5

Weather is going to have a huge impact in this game, as we're going to have sustained Southwest winds of 25-35 mph and snow falling. The wind is going to be a crosswind on the field, which favors low scoring more than if it were going directionally. With these conditions, you can expect each team to load up the box to stop the run, daring the other to throw deep on them. Given the wind, I doubt we'll see any long completions resulting in quick scores.

Now let's look at how each team is equipped to deal with this situation. For starters, Steelers WR Hines Ward is dealing with a hamstring injury, and most likely won't play in this game. Pittsburgh's strength this year has been throwing the ball, as they're 4th best in the NFL at yards per pass attempt. With the conditions limiting how effective their air game an be, they'll likely focus on running the ball. While their rushing offense is slightly above average, with the Browns focusing on shutting it down due to the weather conditions, I don't expect a ton of production on the ground for them. On Cleveland's side of the ball, without poor conditions they've been the worst passing offense in the NFL, with their rushing offense ranking 4th worst. Factoring in the weather, I think there is a legitimate chance they don't make it to double digit points. We're likely looking at a sloppy game with a few turnovers, and extreme difficulty kicking field goals. With all of that in mind, the under is the clear play here. Good luck to anyone who bets on the game!

Week 13 Weekend Plays

2009-12-05T15:18:00.000-08:00

We've benefited from winning Thursdays a few weeks in a row now, and like previous weeks I'm hoping to continue the momentum. I feel like this weekend is a bit tougher than most, but I've still come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. Here's what I like this weekend:

Tennessee Titans +6.5

It feels like almost everybody is on this play already, which as I mentioned last week in my Dolphins play always worries me a bit. However, I simply can't ignore the recent level of play by the Titans. Vince Young has revitalized the offense, Tennessee is throwing for 7.39 yards/pass attempt and rushing for 5.5 yards/carry, 4th and 1st best in the NFL. On defense, their rushing defense has been a bit of a problem, however the Colts have the 9th worst rushing offense in the NFL so I expect that this won't be a huge issue. The key I see here is the Titans' pass defense. They've played much better of late, as the unit is starting to get healthy and they've been the 5th best defense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed.

This is a much different Titans team than the Colts saw earlier this season, and I don't think that Tennessee will repeat the mistake of giving Johnson the ball only 9 times. I don't think the Colts' defense will be able to shut Tennessee's offense down, and that the Titans will be able to slow the Indy offense just enough to give themselves a chance to win this game. I'll take the points and hope the Titans get the job done.

Washington Redskins +9.5

After an impressive Monday Night win over the Patriots, I think this is an obvious letdown spot for the Saints. After their last Monday Night victory over the Panthers they showed some signs of letting down, before the Panthers handed them the game and they won by 10. I think that they'll struggle even a little more in this spot, especially because the game is on the road. Another factor to take into consideration in this one is that Washington has the 4th best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 5.48 yards/pass attempt. The only other opponent that the Saints have played that was ranked top 8 in pass defense was the Jets, and they held the Saints to 10 offensive points. Buffalo, the 9th ranked pass defense, also held Brees in check and limited the Saints to 27 points, their second lowest point total of the year. So, given the facts that Washington is strong against the pass and this is a letdown spot, I think the Saints will likely be held under 30 points.

So, given that I feel the Saints' offense may struggle a bit, the question becomes how effectively the Redskins can keep up on the scoreboard. Two of Washington's last three games they've topped 21 points, and I'm starting to think that their offense may be coming together. The Saints will also be without 4 defensive players on Sunday, and I think the letdown from Monday Night will be even more apparent on the defensive side of the ball. The Redskins should be able to put some solid drives together and make a game of this one, as they'll probably try to attack the Saints on the ground all game, and succeed. Again, I'll take the points and hope that the Redskins come ready to play.

That's it this week! Good luck to everyone tomorrow!

2009-12-02T16:22:00.001-08:00

I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight:

New York Jets -3
Jets/Bills UNDER 37

To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.

Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!

Stats and Information Through 12 Weeks

2009-12-02T15:56:00.000-08:00

It's been a hell of a first 12 weeks, with my plays sitting at 35-17 ATS (67.3%). It's hard to believe we're so far into the season already, and while my system has not been performing great or producing as many plays as last year, we've still found ways to succeed. In just nine weeks, we'll be on to Superbowl Sunday, which hopefully will be closing out a very successful year. I'm hoping to have sent out about 90 plays by then and still be hitting in the neighborhood of 67%, but as usual, I will not force anything.

Allow me to update you on how my system is doing. Since it kicked off Week 8 until now, it has produced a record of merely 20-16 ATS (55.56%). This isn't even close to where it was at this point last year, and I've been taking some in depth looks to try to figure out where the problem is. Luckily, I think I've found the answer. A key stat that my system uses is yards per point scored. I have data going back to 2004 on this system, and on the teams each year. From 2004-2008, there were a grand total of 4 teams that had a mark of 20 yards per point scored or worse. At this point this season, we currently have 5 teams that rank this poorly, including the Rams, who have the worst offensive efficiency my system has ever seen. I have to believe that this is a large part in what is throwing off my system, so although I will continue to look at it this season and let it weigh into my decisions, I will certainly keep more of a level head about it capabilities. In future years, I expect teams' offenses to return to the norm and for my system to become a valuable asset again.

As you've seen from a couple previous emails of mine, I like to see how my plays compare to the "Experts" tracked by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor. Unfortunately these people charge hefty sums of money for their plays, while the vast majority of them fail to produce records that show they deserve it. Not only that, but the services that top the chart year to year are often one hit wonders, who you never see ranked that high again. If I were being tracked this year (The $350 charge to be tracked by them is all that is stopping me), I'd currently be ranked 3rd in winning percentage, 2nd in Rate of Return, and 1st in Net Wins. If you were to compare me only to services that have released over 50 plays so far this year, I'd be ranked 1st in every category. I take a great deal of pride in this fact, especially given the fact that I offer all of these plays for free.

This leads me to my final point - donations. I've never been one to go out of my way to ask for money, however over the past year and a half I have been asked a few times if I accept donations. I just wanted to make everyone aware that I now have a link up on my site that will take you to a paypal page that will accept donations on my behalf the remainder of this season. If you would like to donate by a different method, feel free to email me and we could figure something out. This is by no means a requirement, it is completely your decision depending on how much I've helped you profit this season and if you're feeling generous. You will not stop receiving plays or anything like that if you choose not to donate. If any of you feel like donating, thank you in advance, it is greatly appreciated!

Moving on from that, I'd just like to let you all know that I may have a play or even two for tomorrow night's game, I'm going to do a bit more research before making my final decision. I'll send out an email in the afternoon informing everyone if there is a play. Good luck to everyone the remainder of the season!

Week 12 Plays

2009-11-27T17:01:00.000-08:00

Got the week off to a good start with a win on Thanksgiving, hopefully we can close this week out with some solid plays to make it a very profitable week. I've got a few plays I'm really confident in, so hopefully these will come through for us. Here's what I like this weekend:

New York Jets -3
Jets/Panthers UNDER 41.5

Although my system does not back these plays, I've got a very high level of confidence in them. I know that the Jets have been struggling lately, but this just isn't a good match-up for Carolina. First of all, we've got Revis covering Steve Smith, the only reliable target through the air for Delhomme. 25% of his completions have gone to Smith, with 50% of his touchdown throws going to him as well. Revis has already shut down Marques Colston, Randy Moss, and Andre Johnson this year, so I have to believe that he will make it very difficult for Delhomme to get the ball to his favorite target. Since the Panthers will struggle moving the ball through the air, they'll likely turn to their ground game and spend the game hammering the ball with their running backs. The Jets, however, have had a very good run defense so far this year, even recently in their struggles. In their last 6 games (They're 1-6 over this span), they're still only allowing 3.93 yards/rush attempt, which is 6th best in the league. Therefore, I've got to believe that they'll do a decent job limiting the damage that Carolina can do on the ground, making it very difficult for the Panthers to get points.

On offense, it's no secret that the Jets have struggled lately, mostly due to Sanchez's inability to take care of the ball. Rex Ryan has spent the week working with Sanchez on his ball security, but despite this fact I doubt they'll let him throw too much in this contest. Carolina's pass defense is 9th best in the league, so the Jets will likely also choose to fight their battle on the ground. The Jets are the 6th best rushing offense in the league, and going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the league a bit of a mismatch seems to exist. The Jets should be able to use their running game to set up the pass, and I look for Sanchez to have a much better game and turn the ball over no more than one time. I expect this game to stay lower scoring, with the Jets' offense finding yards and points much easier than the Panthers'. I expect a final score in the neighborhood of 23-13 Jets.

New Orleans Saints -1.5

I remain stubborn in my opinion that all is not well on the New England offense. Their struggle all year has been finishing drives, and against a team like the Saints I don't expect them to be able to get away with this flaw. This year (Discounting the Titans game, in which Tennessee clearly wasn't interested in playing), the Patriots have scored 23 offensive touchdowns to 19 field goals. This means that only 55% of the Patriots' scoring drives have been touchdowns, the 9th worst percentage in the league. Also, the Saints have proven to have a very capable pass defense, which ranks 6th best in the league at yards/pass attempt allowed. I expect them to dial up the pressure and throw Brady off of his game a bit, again limiting the Patriots' scoring opportunities a bit.

The Saints however, have been excellent at scoring all year as everyone knows. The Saints continue to have the best passing offense, fifth best rushing offense, and best scoring efficiency in the league. The Patriots defense is middle of the pack in both rushing and passing defense, and allow 68% of scoring drives on them to end in touchdowns, the 8th worst percentage in the league. So, it looks like the pieces are all in place for the Saints to have yet another big offensive night. As I've said before, the Saints are one of the few teams in the NFL that appear to still have a large home-field advantage, and I expect that to only help on Monday night against the Patriots. Saints should win this game by a touchdown at least, something like 38-27.

Miami -3

This game looks a bit like a trap and the public is all over it, but sometimes the public is right and I think this is one of those cases. We again have the setup of a poor rushing defense going against the wildcat offense, which Ricky Williams has excelled in so far. Miami's offense is still rushing for about 4.7 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. This is enough for them to overcome a mediocre passing game, which always manages to do just enough.

Buffalo's offense is still a mess, Owens' long touchdown last week could be attributed to a bit of a fluke as Jacksonville was missing a key corner. Miami's big defensive liability is the pass, which actually has been better of late. Even if they don't show up, Buffalo's passing offense is still below average, so I don't expect a lot of firepower out of them. Miami knows they have to show up this week if they want any hope at making the playoffs, I expect them to do just that as they win this one by a touchdown.

That's it for this week everyone, good luck this week!