The Camp Pendleton wildfires are back - Big Time.

In an October 8th post I shared photos of the 1,000 acre wildfire on Camp Pendleton near my home. Photos of that fire can be seen here. Well, the fires are back - and they are MUCH closer this time.

The Santa Anna winds were blowing again today. That hot, dry wind started a new fire on Camp Pendleton. This one is smaller, but so close that the air here is thick with smoke. Friends called to ask if I was evacuating.  Evacuating? Are they that close? Turns out they were. Homes only a few miles away were evacuated. The top photo was taken from my driveway looking down the street. The lower photo was taken about three blocks away. To see a few more of today’s photos click here.

On my way home from the airport last night I saw a glow in the sky to the north. Since it was clearly past sunset, and since it’s California, that can only mean one thing. Wildfires. Turns out that part of Camp Pendleton, the huge US Marine base was ablaze. 

The fire consumed over 1,000 acres. While that is a lot of area, Pendleton is over 125,000 acres (it’s huge) and this fire was in a remote area of the base.

I took these shots at about 9pm last night at a spot about three blocks from my home. The actual fires were much further away. We were never in danger and the fire was largely under control by this morning. I apologize for the quality as these were handheld shots. To see this one in more detail, or to view more of them click here.

As far as I know, no one was hurt.

– Carl Melville / Blogvious

I concede that it’s silly to get that invested in a baseball season. After all, there are real problems in the world. However, this year was special. For the first time since 1969 I really beleived that this was the year. Even in 2003 when hapless Steve Bartman was blamed for breaking the streak, I was holding back my enthusiasm. This year however, it as all out there. It had been 100 years - and this would be the big one.

In fact, I had already budgeted $1,500 and 25,000 air miles to fly home to Chicago, catch a game at Wrigley, party with friends, and fly back to San Diego. The Cubs were going to be in the World Series - and it was going to be in Chicago - and I was going to be there. So much for plans.

Is there a curse?  It’s fun to talk about, especially when such talk is fueled by good friends and some cold beer. There is high entertainment value in it - and something to focus on while we look to the future.

Growing up in Chicago as a South Side Cubs Fan (a rare creature frequently subjected to Sox fan ridicule), there were three truths which anyone from that time and place can relate to:

1. Vote early / vote often
2. Never chew gum in church
3. There’s always next year

So, here we are again. 100 years and counting. I keep remembering that 104 year old man throwing out the first pitch at the first playoff game.  How old will I be when the Cubs finally pull it off?

To next year. Eamus Catuli.

– Carl Melville / Blogvious

I get that the point of this bailout is not punishment. However, if I made a ten million dollar mistake I would probably be fired. If one of my people made such a mistake, they would get the axe - assuming the company even survived.

So how is that the smartest guys in the room can make mistakes that total over $1.3 trillion — and get away with it? Why is it that people that were prudent are bailing out the no-limit morons that took on debt loads they cannot afford? Why are we rewarding this? 

By the way, the most guilty party of all, the US Congress (along with the Clinton and Bush administrations) lit the fuse and kept stoking this fire. I doubt you will hear many mia culpas from their ranks.

Once again, the party is over. Once again we are cleaning it up. Time to clean the erasers.

– Carl / Blogvious

That’s a big bet.  Plus, we get to increase the national debt by another 10% - to well over $11 trillion.

He says we are doing all of this to calm the stock and bond markets, releive the credit crunch and restore confidence in the American economy.  Um…OK, but I have a question.

Who is doing the ‘restoring’here?  Just who is on this team to restore confidence?

• Is this the same team that took us into Iraq?
• The same team that coughed up the ball once we were there? 
• The same team that squandered tens of billions cleaning up self-generated messes in that failed execution? 
• Is this the same team that responded to Katrina? 
• The same team that was as inept as the clueless Governor and Mayor of that corrupt state / city?
• The same team that appointed cronies to key positions of responsibility and oversight?
• Is this the same team that turned a blind eye to lax regulation?
• The same team that allowed congress to use Fannie / Freddie as a third-party enrichment tool?
• Is the team that has run up big government deficits that would make LBJ and FDR blush?

Is this the team that is RESTORING confidence?  Am I missing something here?

The air is thick with talking heads and know-it-alls espousing tons of theories on why Paulson is wrong or right. The truth is none of them know. Let me repeat that. None of them know. Nor do the walk-and-talks that are repeating someone elses’ less than grounded assessment. We’ve not been here before and I’ve not seen a single historic parallel that provides a solid analog - which is itself an assessment on my part.

The reason we are seeing all of this chattering - in addition to the magnificent egos spewing it forth - is the reality that we have so little confidence in this team to get it right, and at a time when the stakes could not possibly be higher.

Economic historians now agree that moves made by Republican and Democratic administrations created, deepened and prolonged the Great Depression. The thing is, it took 50 years to figure that out. It may be our kids that finally determine if what we are doing now is the right course of action, or a path of folly.

Were this action coming from an administration founded on solid principals and with a roster of significant wins and accomplishments, I (and many others) would be much more comfortable.

You are a smart and well-respected man Mr. Paulson, but your team has some credibility issues. Restore confidence? OK Mr. Paulson, but it begins at home.

– Carl / Blogvious

Try as I might, I just could not get excited about the Cubs last year. This year, by comparison, I am walking on the ceiling. For some reason, maybe it’s the 100 years, maybe it’s something in the air, all I know is this is the most excited I’ve been about the Cubs chances since 1969. I was eight years old then but honestly believe I’m every bit as excited as that eight-year-old boy. Could this be the year?

Well, the season’s not over yet. What they did do today was mathematically lock in the Central league title. Compared to most years within the last 100, that alone is an impressive feat. I’d like to write some more about this but I need to go look through some old T-shirt boxes to find some of my long-stored Cubs gear.

See you at the World Series. Eamus Catuli!!!

– Carl Melville / Blogvious

Let’s find some guilty parties:

Mr. & Mrs. America: If you’ve defaulted on a mortgage, a bank, car, or credit card loan – and I really don’t care what your story is – you are part of the problem. That does not make you a bad person, but you are adding to the turmoil. ::That’s Personal responsibility.

Mr. & Mrs. No Limits: If you are living in a home you cannot afford with a mortgage you should never have qualified for – and again I don’t care about your story – you are part of the problem. We’ve already shoveled $100 billion to help these geniuses. Those of us that took personal responsibility are quite puzzled by this one. ::It’s called Common Sense

Mortgage Industry: If you were a high-flying mortgage banker, loan processor, or broker (or agent) that was moving fast and loose with paper that was not yours, lying to people on both sides to close the deal, you should probably be shot (and I am quite serious here). ::It’s called Integrity.

Too Smart: If you were one of the “brightest guys in the room” that helped design these exotic mortgage bundles and then syndicated them far and wide to avoid any concentrations (so the financial system would be safe) you are part of the problem. ::It’s called Character.

Financial Stalwarts: If you were an investment bank, insurance company or other bastion of financial integrity prized for your strength and power, and you bought these risky, bloated instruments to make a quick buck, you are part of the problem – and are now feeling incredible pain. ::It’s called Prudence.

Watchdogs: If you were one of the many trusted institutions or appointed officials charged with monitoring and regulating the banking and financial markets, you have truly fallen asleep at the switch. Those of you that did raise your voices were shouted down. Too bad. Regulators do not win popularity contests. You are all part of the problem.  ::We call this Accountability.

National Leadership: If you sat in the Oval Office during the Clinton or Bush eras, or advised either man during this run-up, you to have much to answer for - and are part of the problem.  :: We call this Judgement.

Elected Officials: Lastly, if you were an esteemed member of Congress, getting fat on dollars from a myriad of lobbists, or were hawking your populist credentials by browbeating regulators (such as Barney Frank, Chairman of the Banking Committee) to lower their standards while your friends were getting rich from sweetheart deals with Fanny and Freddie you are among the biggest offenders of all. You certainly are part of the problem.  I’m about out of adjectives, but ::Corrupt, comes to mind.

– Carl  Melville / Blogivous

When I bought my first new car, I sat across from a man that asked me how I was going to pay back the loan, should he deem to give me one. Forms were filled out and boxes were checked, but what he really did was take a measure of my character. Was I someone that could be counted upon to pay back this loan regardless of future circumstances?

Years later (1991), when I purchased my first home, I sat across from a banker. His name was Mark. He was the vice president of lending. There were many more forms, but his main agenda was sizing me up as someone that could be trusted with money from his depositers. After all, he knew many of his customers and he actually lived in the community. His level of responsibility and accountability ran deep.

These days are indeed gone forever. Before anyone pulls out a grandpa sticker, let me say that I realize we cannot go back to that model of lending. Thousands of small institutions have morphed into a few large money center banks. For all but the most wealthy or traditional individuals, the face of your banker is now an ATM machine, an online account, and an occasional visit to an actual edifice - though I doubt you know anyone there personally. 

We can no longer afford the cost of the old one-to-one relationship and potential biases that were possible when charcter counted. I borrowed three times as much money to buy my current home yet never spoke to anyone but a paper pusher and had only the sketchiest of probes into my ability to pay. Is this progress? Those holding now worthless investment paper — or families living in a home they cannot afford may have a different answer now.

Still, I wonder where we would be today if each person that signed that dotted line had to look a vested party in the eyes and explain how they could afford this commitment and would honor it for the next 30 years. We may not be going back there - but you can bet we will change.

 – Carl / Blogvious

When I was two years old JFK was assassinated. I grew up in a world of adults frequently asking one another ”where were you when…?”  Because I was a baby, I never experienced the horror of that event. The closest I ever came to understanding it was in 1985 when the Challenger exploded, killing all aboard, including the first teacher in space. Nothing of course could prepare any of us for the atrocities of seven years ago today. Now I too ask, “Where were you…?”, as do so many others.

There was also a frequent refrain about how much the world had changed since that day in Dallas. Phrases like ‘the end of innocence’ and ‘the end of Camelot’ were frequently used. Since I did not know a world before that date, I could not relate to any change at all. Was the world better?  Was the world worse? We tend to idealize the past. It’s a universal human tendency - and it’s usually incorrect. The world is a much better place today than it was 40-odd years ago, but it certainly is different as well. 

How about the the youngest among us today?  They are born into a world of color coded threats, encroachments on civil liberties, US troops fighting in far off lands, stringent security and global terrorism (and global warming). They do not know life before this…then again, they will not know of ‘duck and cover’, ‘cold war’, ‘mutually assured destruction’ or other relics from a nightmare era I hope we have left in the dust bin of history. Their world, on balance, is a better one from many perspectives.

Is the world better overall? Is the world worse on balance? People tend to find what they are looking for, so the answer to both could be yes. If you want to believe the world is worse since 9/11, you can find ample evidence. If you want to believe the world is better in spite of 9/11, and that humanity, for all the warts and indiscretions, continues an upward spiral of accomplishment, then there is plenty of evidence for that as well. As an optimistic realist, I strongly hold the latter view.

However, and regardless of your world view, today is a day for all Americans to reflect on what has happened, what changed, and what we learned. To remember that the world can be a dangerous place, and that ideas do matter. Some of those ideas are worth defending at any cost. I’m not wrapping myself in the flag here. Our nation was based on dissension and revolution. We need many voices in the public square. Today however is a day to quiet those voices and reflect.

The sun will come up again tomorrow, and we can again begin our quarrelsome discussions. It’s also a good time to ask someone “where were you when…?”

– Carl Melville / Blogvious

Today Biden actually said that “perhaps he was not the best choice for the VP slot”. Now that he has opened the door, he certainly made it much easier for the Obama people to call an audible and replace him with a woman who should be at the top of their ticket. To the detractors from yesterday, I would just like to say “I told you so.”

Keep in mind, my views here are strictly Machiavellian. Under full disclosure I hope that Obama does not switch horses. Give human nature, enough middle-of-the-road voters currently swayed towards McCain could in fact swing back if they had the genuine article, rather than a stand-in to vote for.

This does not mean I believe Sarah Palen is a stand-in. To the base of the party she is certainly the real thing and replacing Biden would have no impact on their votes. However we need to keep in mind that this election will be a squeaker and if the Obama Axelrod team can pick up an extra point or two with Hillary but they will make the move.

What I know for sure it’s going to be an interesting eight weeks.

– Carl / Blogvious