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Russia and NATO - An absence of trust

2012-01-28T15:03:00.000+08:00

Why Russia is no closer to working with NATO on missile defence

THE hopes at NATO'S 2010 Lisbon summit that Russia might be a partner in the missile-defence system meant to protect Europe from a nuclear-armed "rogue" state are looking increasingly forlorn. NATO governments had promised "to explore opportunities for missiledefence co-operation with Russia in a spirit of reciprocity, maximum transparency and mutual confidence." But at his Valdai dinner on N ovembernth, Russia's prime minister, Vladimir Putin, claimed that the Russian ambassador toN ATO, Dmitry Rogozin, had been told by an American senator that missile defence was aimed at Russia's nuclear deterrent. Mr Putin even drew a diagram on a napkin to make his point.

At this week's meeting of the NATORussia Council, a body meant to improve relations, Russia's deputy defence minister, Anatoly Antonov, was equally blunt. He complained that NATO was pressing ahead even though Russia's conditions for co-operation had not been met. Chief among his gripes was America's refusal to give Russia a legal guarantee- in effect a treaty-thatNATo's missile shield would never be used to protect Europe or America from Russian nuclear weapons. He suggested that Russia might take "military-technical measures".

The heart of the problem is a lack of trust, made worse by what Russia sees as NATO'S cynically broad interpretation of the UN Security Council resolution on Libya-a "betrayal", say some Russians.
Russian leaders cannot bring themselves to believe repeated Western assurances that plans to defend Europe against nuclear missiles are aimed solely at irrational states with a handful of weapons (diplomat-speak for Iran), and are not meant to blunt the effectiveness of Russia's array of nuclear weapons.

Russian military analysts concede that the phased approach to European missile defence adopted by the Obama administration is less threatening than George Bush's plans for a shield based on long-range interceptors and radars in Poland and the Czech Republic. They also accept that, even in its final phase of deployment, the system would be overwhelmed by any Russian attack. But they persist in seeing missile defence as part of a long-term American plot to undermine Russia's nuclear arsenal.

Source of Information : [The Economist] Volume 401 Number 8760 Nov 19th - Nov 25th 2011

A self-sufficient Isle of Wight - Green and pleasant island

2012-01-25T22:53:00.000+08:00

The Isle of Wight wants to become self -sufficient in energy

ECOISLAND is a group so green that the invitations it sent to an event at Britain's House of Commons were printed on recycled paper embedded with meadow-flower seeds Gust plant, water and watch them grow). Its aim is to make the Isle of Wight, off Britain's south coast, energy-independent by 2020. The island is often viewed as a quaint place a decade or so behind the times. But if the project, launched on November 15th, comes off, the Isle of Wight could be in the vanguard of an environmentally friendlier future. Ecoisland plans to install solar panels on roofs (the island is one of the sunniest places in England), insulate houses better, make greater use of geothermal, wind and tidal energy, and generate power from waste. There are also plans for electric vehicles that residents and visitors alike can hire. Locally grown food would be delivered through island-wide supply hubs. A concerted effort is under way to reduce water use and capture more rainwater (about one-third of the island's fresh water at present is pumped from the mainland). This all seems very cosy, but what gives Ecoisland an edge-apart from its
energetic and auspiciously named chief executive, David Green-is the array of national and international companies which have agreed to take part. These include IBM, Cable &Wireless and Silver Spring Networks, which together with Toshiba, will be working on smart-grid technology and energy-storage systems. Toshiba is doing similar work for the
Japanese island of Miyako.

British partners include Southern Water, a utility, SSE, an electricity supplier, and ITM Power, which makes electrolysis systems that generate hydrogen from water. The hydrogen can be used as an energy store and to power cars and vans. Graham Cooley, ITM's chief executive, says an island provides a natural boundary within which the benefits of integrating sustainable services can be more easily explored. Mr Green says that the partnership has already raised £2oom ($315m) in private funding. Ultimately, he hopes, the acquired eco know-how can be exported to other places. By then his business cards, which are also meadow-seeded, could be blooming all over the place.

Source of Information : [The Economist] Volume 401 Number 8760 Nov 19th - Nov 25th 2011

Regional drink and drug trends - Sober London

2012-01-21T22:41:00.000+08:00

Why young people in the capital shun drink and drugs

"TOP BOY", a drama shown on Channel Four earlier this month, depicted a London housing estate awash with guns, gangs and illicit substances. Almost every young person who was not selling drugs seemed to be buying them. As television, it was rather good. As sociology, it was questionable. Compared with other English youngsters, Londoners are oddly abstemious.

Surveys by the National Health Service show that Londoners aged between nand 15 are less likely to smoke than are youngsters in every other English region. They drink alcohol much more rarely Qust12% did so in the week before the survey, compared with between 19% and 26% in the other regions) and are no more likely to take illicit drugs. Another largescale survey for the Department of Education rolls drink and drug use among young people into a single measure. Again, London stands out for its sobriety.

London's teenagers may be lying. Other surveys show that people in their late teens and early 20s are slightly more likely to take drugs if they live in the capital (although, confusingly, Londoners become abstemious again in their 30s). Another explanation is that the capital contains a lot of immigrants from places where youthful drinking and smoking are rare-particularly the Indian subcontinent. Ealing, which is heavily Asian, has London's lowest rate of youthful substance abuse. But if stricter Asians were the explanation, northern cities like Bradford would also be abstemious. They are not always. London's odd social make-up may help to explain the pattern. In addition to an immigrant-heavy working class, the capital has a lot of affluent professionals, who may be unusually keen to steer their children away from mind-altering chemicals. Wealthy counties like Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire also have belowaverage rates of youthful drink and drug abuse, although not as low as London's.

There is a more startling possibility: London represents the future. Alex Stevens, a criminologist at the University of Kent, points out that the capital generally leads drug trends. Heroin emerged in London and a few other large cities in the 1980s, then spread. So did cocaine. Home Office surveys show that adults in the capital were twice as likely to take powder cocaine as were adults elsewhere in the late 1990s. Having declined in London and risen everywhere else, the drug is now as popular in the far north of England as it is in the capital.

Britons have been hooked on drink and drugs for so long that it is hard to imagine them dropping the habit. But if the country were to become less intoxicated, the earliest signs of change would probably appear in the city.

Source of Information : [The Economist] Volume 401 Number 8760 Nov 19th - Nov 25th 2011

What dinosaurs ate - The belly of the beast

2012-01-18T00:20:00.000+08:00

A chance discover y from China suggests some dinosaurs lived in trees

WHAT dinosaurs ate is, of course, a question as interesting and illuminating as what ate dinosaurs. In the case of one particular dinosaur, Microraptor, the matter was addressed in a presentation to the annual meeting of the Society of Vertebrate Palaeontology by Jingmai O'Connor of the Institute of Vertebrate Palaeontology and Palaeoanthropology, in Beijing.

Microraptor (see photograph) is one of many small, feathered dinosaurs found in what is now China that were alive during the Cretaceous period more than 66m years ago. Being feathered, it and its kind were cousins to birds. The actual split between the two groups, though, had happened much earlier, during the Jurassic period (the first known bird is Archaeopteryx, from 150m years ago), and by the late Cretaceous there were many species of bird around. What Dr O'Connor and her colleagues have found is the remains of one of those birds, of an as-yet-unidentified species, in the stomach of a specimen of Microraptor.

That is interesting. Discovering direct evidence of what a fossil animal ate, rather than having to infer it from details such as the shape of its teeth, is always valuable. But the find's true significance is a small detail of the prey's anatomy: the third toe of its foot. The size of the prey's third toe is important because, among birds, long third toes are helpful for grasping branches and perching in trees. Indeed, the trait is so useful for arboreal life that it is used by many avian palaeontologists to decide whether newly excavated species of fossil birds lived in trees or on the ground. And the last meal of this particular specimen of Microraptor did, indeed, have a long third toe.

That elongated toe suggests to Dr O'Connor that Microraptor, too, was arboreal, and hints that its feathers may have helped it to move through an environment where hops, jumps and flaps between branches were a regular part of its daily activity. Whether the first birds evolved from arboreal or terrestrial ancestors is a matter of lively debate among palaeontologists. A fossil formed so long after birds emerged does not, in truth, shed much light on that debate. But it does suggest feathers may have helped promote life in the trees, even for creatures that could not actually fly.

Source of Information : [The.Economist] Volume 401 Number 8759 Nov 12th - Nov 18th 2011

What ate dinosaurs? Old crocs

2012-01-14T00:08:00.000+08:00

Even in their heyday, dinosaurs were not quite as dominant as popular myth makes th em out to be

0NE answer to the question, "What ate dinosaurs?" is, obviously, "Other dinosaurs." Theropod predators like Tljrannosaurus and Allosaurus loom large in the imagination of every lover of prehistoric monsters, and their animatronic fights with the likes of Diplodocus and Stegosaurus are the stuff of cliche. Science, though, tries to look beyond the obvious, and at this year's meeting of the Society of Vertebrate Palaeontology, held in Las Vegas, some of the speakers asked whether the top predators of the Mesozoic era really were all dinosaurs. Their conclusion was "no". Another group of reptiles, until recently neglected, were also important carnivores. And it is a group that is still around today: the crocodiles.

That the past role of crocodiles (or, strictly, crocodilians, since they came in many sizes and shapes, not all of which resemble the modern animals) has been underestimated was suggested a few years ago by Paul Sereno. Dr Sereno, a palaeontologist at the University of Chicago, uncovered a crocodile-dominated ecosystem from about 1oom years ago (the middle of the Cretaceous period), in what is now north Africa. Besides water-dwelling giants similar to (though much bigger than) today's animals, he found a range of forms including vegetarians and species that ran on elongated legs- more like dogs than crocodiles. That discovery has prompted other fossil hunters to look elsewhere. As a result, even the well-studied rocks of North America are revealing that dinosaurs did not have it all their own way in the ecosystems of the Mesozoic- as Stephanie Drumheller of the University of Iowa and Clint Boyd of the University of Texas at Austin explained to the meeting.

The Cretaceous equivalent of zebra and antelopes- the victim species in every wildlife documentary about the dramas of the African savannah- were herbivorous dinosaurs called ornithopods. Frequently, these were taken by theropods. But not always. When Ms Drumheller and Mr Boyd examined the bones of juvenile upperCretaceous ornithopods dug up in Utah they saw marks on one skeleton that looked suspiciously like those modem crocodiles inflict when biting and tearing at their prey. On examining these marks more closely, they found a crocodilian tooth stuck in one of them.

Crocodile tears
It was not a large tooth. Its size suggests the animal which made it was no more than a metre and a half (about 5 feet) long. Such a predator would have been unable to take on an adult ornithopod. Nevertheless, this tooth is the first unarguable proof that crocodilians did indeed snack on dinosaurs. Moreover, it helps to confirm suspicions that the other crocodile-bite-like marks that Ms Drumheller and Mr Boyd have discovered really are what they look like. By combining that with an analysis of the whole site, the two researchers argue that what they have discovered is a dinosaur nesting ground that was being raided by crocodilians.

Such suspicions have been aroused before. Other sites in Utah are known to be
dinosaur nesting grounds, since eggs are found there. Crocodilian bones frequently turn up at such sites. Ms Drumheller and Mr Boyd, however, seem to have nailed the connection down. Juvenile dinosaurs, at least, were indeed the prey of crocodilians. But what about adults?

More than mere morsels
To investigate that question, Martin Lockley at the University of Colorado, Denver, and Spencer Lucas of the New Mexico Museum of Natural History and Science, turned to one of the most famous fossil phenomena on the planet- the dinosaur freeway that runs through Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas and Oklahoma. This collection of tracks, scattered over several sites of the same age along the coast of an inland sea, is thought to mark an ancient migration route. The traces of more than 1,380 individual animals can be distinguished. Most, but not all, were omithopods. Some were small carnivorous dinosaurs-the sort that might pick off young stragglers in the way that the crocodilians identified by Ms Drumheller and Mr Boyd did. But there is, Dr Lockley and Dr Lucas realised, something missing from the picture. When they looked for traces of big predatory dinosaurs, they found none.

That is ecologically absurd. Unless, of course, the top predator of the system- the one that could hunt down adult ornithopods-was not a dinosaur at all. And, when Dr Lockley and Dr Lucas re-examined the tracks they found that that was exactly what was going on. Instead of therepod footmarks, they found those of crocodilians. More than a quarter of the places where the dinosaur freeway sur- faces have yielded signs of crocs. And they
were big: sometimes more than four metres long. That is certainly large enough to
take on an adult ornithopod. Such megacrocs, then, could easily have acted as top predators in this ecosystem. But that does not completely explain the absence of theropod tracks. Modem migrating herbivores fall victim to many sorts of carnivore: big cats, wolves and hyenas, to name but three. The marshy conditions of the dinosaur freeway (the reason its footprints formed, and have survived) may, though, have favoured crocodilians over predators that had evolved on drier land. In that sort of environment even a big theropod would constantly have been looking over its shoulder. Perhaps the real reason why they did not plant their footprints on the dinosaur freeway is that they might have ended up as prey, as well.

Source of Information : [The.Economist] Volume 401 Number 8759 Nov 12th - Nov 18th 2011

Asia's rice bowls

2012-01-10T23:38:00.000+08:00

How serious w ill the impact of the Thai floods be on Asian tables?

IN ASIA kingdoms are said to rise and fall with the shifting price of rice. So the continent's rulers presumably ought to be worried by the effects of disastrous floods in Thailand, the world's biggest exporter of the white grains (see chart).

Last year Thailand provided about a third by volume of all internationally traded rice- around 10m tonnes. Thailand's government reckons that some 5m-6m tonnes (nearly a fifth of the country's total produ ction) might have been destroyed by the deluge. Some analysts say that the damage could be even more severe. Pessimists worry that Thailand's exports could be cut by 3m-4m tonnes. With the world trade in rice expected to hit over 33m tonnes in 2011 this could take around 10% out of the market. If the same thing happened with oil or wheat the results would be calamitous.

But the nature of the rice market means that the consequences may not be as severe. Rice is a resilient crop, and the floods may not do as much damage as some fear. Although rice is a staple for half the world's population, international trade is small compared with the 451m tonnes that will pop out of the ground in the 2010-u growing season. Only about 7% of the total crop hits global markets, compared with 20% or so for wheat.

Politics and tastes mean that rice is mainly consumed where it is grown. Rice is such a vital foodstuff in Asia- some 90% is grown and eaten there- that policies aim at self-sufficiency. Domestic markets are usually heavily regulated and protected. It is one of the most politicised of commodities, according to Concepci6n Calpe of the Food and Agriculture Organisation. Moreover rice comes in many varieties: longgrain, short-grain, sticky, fluffy and so on.

Consumers want their customary sort, not an unfamiliar rice from far afield. The result is that many rice-eating countries are detached from the price swings in global markets, according to Darren Cooper of the International Grains Council, a research body. Others aim to be. China, the world's biggest producer at around 130m tonnes a year, is largely self-sufficient. The Philippines, the world's biggest importer, plans to cultivate all its own rice by 2013. What's more, it has been an excellent year for rice crops on the whole. Droughts in Arkansas, America's main rice-growing area, have hit the crop: exports will be closer to 3m than 4m tonnes this year. Butbumper cropsinlndia and Pakistan should help offset a shortfall in Thai exports.

The excellent harvest in India convinced politicians, once fearful of food inflation,
to lower protectionist defences. The government lifted an export ban on white rice in September, allowing 2m tonnes to be exported before Thailand's floods. Indian traders, worried that the decision will be reversed, have quickly sold almost all the allowance at rock-bottom prices. This has proved good news for African countries, which import around 10m tonnes annually, a third of the global trade.

The floods will have some impact. Thailand's benchmark rice is currently fetching around $630 a tonne, roughly what it cost at the start of September. Credit Suisse thinks prices might hit $700 before the end of the year. More gloomy forecasters say that it could even top $8oo. But kingdoms will not totter.

Source of Information : [The.Economist] Volume 401 Number 8759 Nov 12th - Nov 18th 2011

A very short history of the crisis - To understand the politics of the euro, it is necessary to look at its causes

2012-01-07T23:54:00.000+08:00

IN GERMAN EYES this crisis is all about profligacy. Greece set the tone when it lied about its circumstances and lived beyond its means. There is no disputing Greek dissipation, nor the fact that the euro zone's troubled members, which also include Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy, must now pay a heavy price. But those other troubled countries were not exactly profligate. Before the crisis the governments of both Ireland and Spain ran budget surpluses.

Both meticulously kept within the limits for deficits and debts set down by the stability and growth pact- unlike Germany, which flouted the rules for four years from 2003 (and avoided punishment). Nor did Italy lurch into extravagance. Debt in these countries has become a burden not because of government profligacy but because each enjoyed a decade of low interest rates and was then hit by the financial crisis. Easy credit fuelled debt in households and the financial sector. The European Central Bank oversaw a binge of cross-border lending. In the crisis unemployment and hardship have deepened, increasing the bill for welfare. Some countries, such as Ireland and Spain, have needed to find money to prop up their banks. These new expenses fell on the state just when tax receipts collapsedcatastrophically in countries that had seen a property boom.

At the same time interest rates surged. Before the crisis investors assumed no euro-zone government would default on its debt. However, as Peter Boone and Simon]ohnson of the Peterson Institute in Washington, DC, explain, Germany then signaled that defaults could happen and that investors would have to bear a share of the losses-a reasonable demand, but a hard one to introduce in the middle of a crisis. Some investors asked to be rewarded for the extra risk and others, unwilling to start paying for credit research, just walked away. This set off a spiral of falling bond prices, weakening banks and slowing growth. Even where troubled euro-zone countries had not been profligate, they have been running unsustainable current-ac- count deficits. Low interest rates fuelled domestic spending and spurred inflation in wages and goods, which in turn made their exports more expensive and left imports relatively cheaper. But it was also because Germany was recycling the surpluses produced by its export machine, financing their consumption.

Germany's economy is remarkable in many ways, but it was as unbalanced as the euro zone's peripheral economies. In their determination to save, Germans seemed to forget that in the long run the point of exports is to pay for imports. They must now regret having invested their savings abroad in American subprime mortgages and Greek government debt.

Your debt, your fault
To end the crisis, the euro zone members agreed last month to write down half of the Greek debt owned by the private sector, recapitalise Europe's banks and boost the fund created as a firewall to protect solvent euro-zone governments. It is an ambitious plan, but Greece may need even more help and the firewall does not look strong enough to withstand a bout of contagion.

And even when the crisis has abated, restoring Europe to health will take many years. That is because the troubled countries need to control their government deficits and to re-establish sound current accounts by improving their competitiveness. Germans feel that the responsibility for this lengthy adjustment lies exclusively with borrowers, which must urgently restore budget discipline. Significantly, the German word for debt, Schulden, is the plural of Schuld, meaning guilt or fault. However, this strategy risks being self-defeating. By pushing for immediate austerity the euro zone is deepening recession in the troubled economies, which will only make their debt harder to service. Germany's approach suffers from a fallacy of composition. lt is not possible for everyone to save their way to prosperity. As Keynes argued after the Depression, someone, somewhere must be consuming. In Europe that should be countries such as Germany and the Netherlands that were running vast current-account surpluses during the boom. But the creditors are loth to accept that they are part of the problem.

Creditor governments, most of all Germany, face a dilemma. They need to save troubled governments in order to prevent contagion. On the other hand they also want to keep up market pressure for reforms and to establish the principle that governments are on their own- so that German taxpayers will not be landed with the bill every time some EU country goes on a spending spree. So far Germany is trying to have it both ways, and succeeding only in getting everyone deeper into the mire.

Source of Information : [The.Economist] Volume 401 Number 8759 Nov 12th - Nov 18th 2011

All too friendly - The war may be over but foreign powers are still busy in Libya

2012-01-03T23:42:00.000+08:00

THE Libyan rebels who triumphed in their six-month uprising against Colonel Muammar Qaddafi could not have prevailed without arms, air-cover, funding and diplomatic support from NATO and Arab allies. Even so, victory belonged to them. No foreign ground troops were deployed.

Brave Libyans protected Benghazi, defended Misrata and captured Tripoli. The country's new rulers emerged from the war with hard-earned legitimacy, giving them a decent chance of setting up a unified national government. Last month they thanked their foreign allies and bid them goodbye. Most allies in turn stressed that the Libyans were in charge. Time to go home, they said: this was not Iraq in 2003. However, since the fighting ceased some allies have become more involved in Libyan affairs, not less, according to Western diplomats.

Libya is a small, rich and homogenous country. None of its political factions and fledgling parties are dominant. To gain influence (and wealth) they know they must co-operate. A successful post-war political system will be based on competition. But it can only work if no one group gains dominance. Some could potentially make a bid for hegemony, but only if they have access to outside resources. Parts of the new establishment are worried when they see foreign powers giving selective backing to their opponents- often those prepared to do their bidding. This not only undermines the new republic's aura of legitimacy, but risks igniting internecine conflicts beyond the messy politics that is already playing out in Tripoli.

The worst offender is Qatar, according to several Tripoli-based diplomats. The small Gulf state was instrumental in arming the rebels. Earlier this year it sent hundreds of weapons shipments and military advisers to Libya and lobbied hard for international intervention. Not surprisingly, the Qataris are revered among Libyans. All over lhpoli, squares and districts have been renamed in their honour. Yet the Qataris are now supporting the political ambitions of hand-picked leaders and commanders, undermining attempts to form a unified military command. Some members of the National 1i"ansitional Council are seething. They say even during the war the Qataris bypassed them, sending weapons directly to favored units at the front. To a lesser extent some Western powers are also pushing their own men or models.

This is not a new phenomenon in the Middle East. In Lebanon and Iraq, two volatile Arab democracies, outside powers run democratic proxies and interfere in national affairs at will- often out of self-interest. One political group is in the pockets of the Saudis, another is paid by the Iranians. If Libya wants to have a better future it must avoid going down that road, wise heads in Tripoli warn. Neighbours like Egypt have so far stayed out of Libya. But they will not want to be outflanked by Gulf states on their own doorstep.

Thankfully, Libya is coping well with liberation. Shops and cafes are once again open late, celebratory gunfire has died down, concerts are held in Tripoli's Martyr's Square, known as Green Square under previous management. Life has returned to normal. Admittedly, heavily armed groups from different parts of the country still control overlapping turfs. One 1i"ipoli militia comprising about so gunmen is operating out of an appropriated computer-showroom decked out with revolutionary tricoloured flags. The militia was recently involved in a firefight with rivals.

A squabble outside the Central Hospital between fighters from Zintan and Misrata left one dead. But such skirmishes will not undermine the new order, says Bashir ai-Sweie, a commander based in a governmentowned arboretum, who would like to return to business once the security forces are in place. Many young men, said another commander, are frustrated that they risked their lives on the battlefield but have yet to be rewarded. A plan to educate and rehabilitate soldiers will probably take months. Outsiders who want to help could offer to support that, instead.

Source of Information : [The.Economist] Volume 401 Number 8759 Nov 12th - Nov 18th 2011

Nuclear Iran, anxious Israel

2011-12-31T03:32:00.000+08:00

The world needs to be much tougher on Iran, but an Israeli attack would still be a disaster

THE debate about timelines is almost over. This week's report on Iran's nuclear programme by the UN'S watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is its most alarming yet. Although no "smoking gun" proves beyond doubt that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, the evidence gathered in a 12-page annex is hard to interpret in any other way.

Concerted efforts by Western intelligence agencies and the Israelis to sabotage the Iranian programme have been less effective than was previously believed. Iran has already begun moving part of its uranium-enrichment capacity to Fordow, a facility buried deep within a mountain near Qom. Intelligence sources estimate that if Iran opted to "break out" from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), it could have at least one workable weapon within a year and a few more about six months after that. Iran's leaders may not choose that path. But what happens next depends less on Iran's technical or industrial capabilities than on politics. For the time being at least, ambiguity almost certainly serves Iran's purposes better than a confrontation. But in Israel, talk of a pre-emptive attack against Iran's nuclear facilities is increasing. Publicly, Israel has stuck to its well-worn line that no option should be ruled out. But well-placed leaks suggest that the prime minister, Binyarnin Netanyahu, and his defence minister, Ehud Barak, are exploring the possibility of a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Their cabinet colleagues seem less persuaded and Israel's powerful military and intelligence establishment is against a strike. Polls show that Israelis are split on the issue. But Mr Netanyahu is determined not to go down in history as the prime minister who allowed Israel to become threatened by a hostile, regional nuclear power.

Rising fear, rising danger
The Israelis' anxiety is understandable. They fear a theocratic regime that embraces the Shia tradition of martyrdom may not be deterred by a nuclear balance of terror. For a country as small as Israel, even a small-scale nuclear attack could be an existential threat. Two of Mr Netanyahu's predecessors took action, against Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007, to prevent just such a threat; and it worked. The opportunity to attack Iran is now, before it is too late-or so the argument goes in many Israeli households.

Yet the arguments against an attack are still overwhelming, even for Israel. A sustained bombing campaign would take weeks and set off a firestorm in the Middle East, with Iran counter-attacking Israel through its proxies. It would do nothing to help regime change in Tehran. The economic consequences could be catastrophic. And to what end? A successful campaign would still only delay Iran, not stop it. The technical difficulties for Israel's armed forces of carrying out such a broad mission over such a long time are immense. Indeed, the suspicion is that Mr Netanyahu would be betting that what Israel started, America would feel forced to finish. Barack Obama should make it very clear to Mr Netanyahu that he would not do that. At the same time, he should pursue two courses: pushing sanctions, on the one hand, and preparing for a nuclear-armed Iran on the other.

So far, attempts to impose punitive sanctions have fallen short. Russia and China (Iran's biggest trading partner) have refused to support efforts at the UN Security Council to beef up the sanctions regime, for instance by limiting Iran's imports of refined petroleum or targeting the activities of its central bank. Yet the West should not give up the effort: there is a (slim) possibility that, as the prospect of an Iranian bomb and an Israeli strike draw near, Russia and China might shift their positions.

If Iran does not halt its nuclear programme, its rulers should expect their country to be treated as an international pariah. That means not just pushing for more serious sanctions, but also stepping up the covert campaign to disrupt Iran's nuclear facilities. It also means preparing for the day when Iran deploys nuclear weapons. To that end, America must demonstrate to its allies who feel threatened by Iran- not just Israel, but Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states too- that its commitment to extending nuclear deterrence to them is as firm as it was to Europe at the height of the cold war. America must also be willing to make available to its allies advanced ballistic missile defences.

Iran must be made to understand that owning nuclear weapons is a curse for it rather than a blessing. And Israel must be persuaded that striking Iran would be far more dangerous than living with its nuclear ambitions.

Source of Information : [The.Economist] Volume 401 Number 8759 Nov 12th - Nov 18th 2011

Suns truck - How Norsemen found their way round in cloudy weather

2011-12-28T03:18:00.000+08:00

CENTURIES before Columbus, Viking adventurers ruled the North Atlantic. They sailed as far as America without the aid of magnetic compasses, which was no mean feat. They were, however, assisted in their travels by another sort of magical device. According to the sagas they had stones which could point to the sun, even when the sky was cloudy. No such sunstone has survived. But Guy Ropars of the University of Rennes, in France, thinks he knows what they were. He and his colleagues have been experimenting with a mineral called Iceland spar. Their results, just published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, suggest they are on to something.

The passage of sunlight through the air polarises it. That means light from the sky itself points towards the sun, if you have the necessary equipment to detect the polarisation. Dr Ropars has shown that a piece of Iceland spar is sufficient. Iceland spar is a form of calcite that splits light into two beams. If the light is polarised, there is only one way to orient the crystal to produce beams of equal intensity. Find this orientation by looking through the crystal at the sky at a time when you can see the sun, mark the sun's direction on the crystal, and your mark will always point towards the sun when you match the beams from even a tiny patch of blue in an otherwise overcast sky. Dr Ropars's experiments suggest the method is accurate to within 5°. That is good enough for navigation of the sort the Vikings managed.

Though no sunstones have survived from Viking days, despite the frequency of ship burials of Viking chiefs, there is one tantalising find from a more recent shipwreck. This is a large calcite crystal recovered from a vessel that went down off the coast of Alderney, in the Channel Islands, in Elizabethan times. Several centuries underwater have rendered the Alderney crystal opaque, but Dr Ropars and his team are now examining it, and believe it may be Iceland spar. Dr Ropars suspects it was being used as a sunstone because the magnetic compasses of the day were thrown out of kilter by iron cannon.

The true nature of the sunstone will probably not be settled until and unless one turns up in either a sunken Viking vessel or a ship burial. Perhaps, though, they not only permitted the Vikings to reach America, but also helped save England from the Spanish Armada.

Source of Information : The Economist Volume 401 Number 8758 Nov 05th - Nov 11th 2011

Cristina the alchemist BUENOS AIRES

2011-12-22T03:12:00.000+08:00

Argentina is trying to build a scientific establishment

SOUTH AFRICA is not the only middleincome country which aspires to join the world's scientific powers (see previous story). Argentina would like to as well. The place is proud of its three Nobel science prizes-the largest haul of any Latin American nation-even if the most recent was awarded in 1984. But many researchers fled in the 1990s, when budgets were slashed. Now the government is trying to attract them back, and to encourage younger talent to consider a scientific career.

When Nest or Kirchner, the predecessor and late husband of the current president,
Cristina Fermindez, took office in 2003, Argentina was spending just 0-41% of its GDP on research and development (R&D). Now, that figure is 0.64%. (Brazil, by comparison, spent 0.95% in 2003 and 1.18% in 2009.) Kirchner raised researchers' salaries, launched a scheme to repatriate departed scientists and gave tax breaks to software companies. Ms Fernandez followed suit by creating a science ministry and putting a biologist, Lino Baraiiao, in charge of it. She also increased grants to firms that try to develop new products. Many of the Kirchners' critics were sceptical, seeing the ministry either as a political marketing ploy or as a soft touch for lobbyists seeking unjustified subsidies.
But the strategy seems to be working. With help from the Inter-American Development Bank the government has, since 2004, lured back 854 expatriate scientists. It has done so by providing new laboratories and equipment for them, moving their families, and forking out extra money for their salaries. As a consequence, according to Dr Baraiiao, Argentine researchers have published179 articles in leadingjournals in the past decade, compared with just 30 in the1990s.

Most of the returners are academics. But commercial science has benefited, too. In dear, a joint public-private biotechnology-research centre based in Santa Fe, recently worked out how to transfer a gene for drought resistance from sunflowers to crops such as maize, soya beans and wheat.

That can increase yields in droughts by up to 40%. And the government has also doled out $54m in grants for the development of products that include coagulant factors to treat haemophilia, transgenic cattle which secrete valuable hormones in their milk, and better ways of probing for oil deposits.

Help for high-tech innovation comes in other forms, too. The state offers, for example, to pay the cost of patenting inventions in foreign jurisdictions and of hiring lawyers to defend those patents. It also acts as a headhunter for information-technology firms seeking employees with PhDs, and will pay part of the salaries of such recruits. None of these programmes has faced allegations of corruption. Whether all this activity will have the effect of stimulating high-tech industry, as Ms Fernandez hopes, remains to be seen. Argentine scientists are happy to take taxpayers' money but according to Luis Dambra, a professor at the IAE business school in Buenos Aires, they look down their noses at the idea of actually getting their hands dirty by going into industry. Mr Dambra, though, says industry is equally to blame. In 2009 (the latest year for which data are available), only 21% of Argentine R&D was paid for by the private sector, compared with 44% of Brazil's. Firms that might recruit academic scientists often do not see the point. Even those that do may struggle to accommodate people with a non-commercial background into the business world.

Attitudes can change, of course. In the 1980s many British academics were as snobbish about commerce as Argentina's are now. These days, Britain's top universities are gung-ho for spin-outs and the revenue they can provide. But it takes time and consistent policy to make such changes and Argentina is notorious for sudden alterations in the political weather. That makes the country a perilous place to invest, whatever the current climate.

Source of Information : The Economist Volume 401 Number 8758 Nov 05th - Nov 11th 2011

All squared - A new radio telescope may catalyse African science

2011-12-19T03:05:00.000+08:00

THE idea for the world's most powerful radio telescope, capable of seeing back nearly to the origins of the universe, has been around for some time. Known as the Square Kilometre Array, or SKA -as that was originally planned to be the total collecting area of its thousands of dishshaped antennae-it was conceived of by an international group of astronomers in the early1990s. No construction has yet begun.

Indeed, no site has yet been chosen. However, in the vast quietness of the Karoo, a semi-desert in South Africa, a small prototype is already operating and its first images are, by all accounts, remarkable. The Karoo Array Telescope (KAT-7) consists of seven steerable dishes, each 12 metres across. As such, it is already the most powerful array-based telescope in Africa. It is, though, merely a test bed for MeerKAT, a device that will consist of 64 somewhat larger dishes and will be the most powerful instrument in the southern hemisphere as well as one of the three most sensitive in the world.

The SKA will dwarf these minnows. It will be so-lOo times more powerful than any predecessor, and will be able to peer back through time almost to the Big Bang itself, exploring the formation of the first stars and galaxies, the role of magnetism in the early cosmos, what exactly dark matter and dark energy are, the nature of gravity, whether intelligent life has ever existed anywhere other than on Earth, and the validity of such fundamental scientific concepts as Einstein's theory of relativity. The world's astronomers are, understandably, fizzing with excitement.

Astronomical sums
There is, though, the small matter of money. The SKA will cost a lot: €1.5 billion-2 billion ($2 billion-2.75 billion), according to the nine-country consortium behind the project; nearer $6 billion, according to America's National Science Foundation. On November 23rd those nine countries Australia, Britain, Canada, France, Germany,
Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand and South Africa-and possibly China as well, are due to commit themselves to paying €90m for the initial engineering-planning phase. But it will be when the megabuck work on the actual telescope begins in 2016, that the crunch comes. This is where MeerKAT-named after a species of mongoose found in arid areas of south-western Africa such as the Karoocould play a crucial role. The construction of its dishes is about to be put out to tender, and it is expected to be fully operational by 2016. If MeerKAT succeeds, it might help persuade sceptical governments to cough up for the SKA. It will also enhance South Africa's chances of hosting this much larger project.

Originally, America had been expected to participate. But it has now cried off, at least until 2020. The disappointment of this withdrawal, however, is mitigated by the keen interest being shown by China. The country with the world's second-biggest economy has never invested in a big global science project before. China was one of the places originally considered as host for the telescope. But it and Argentina have since been dropped, leaving just South Africa and Australia in the race. They are said to be neck and neck.

Both offer remote, sparsely populated areas with low levels of man-made radio interference, along with world-class teams of astronomers. Australia has more experience with radio astronomy, but South Africa has the advantage of lower costs and ease of access. As a developing country in which over a third of the population still live on less than $2 a day, it might also be considered to have the greater moral claim. And it has KAT-7, and will shortly have MeerKAT.

The victor will be announced in February by the board of the not-for-profit company that is to be formed by the participating countries when they formally sign up to start paying for the project. Regardless of who wins, some critics say South Africa's contribution would be better spent feeding and housing the country's poor. But if South Africa did succeed, that would mean part of everybody else's contribution would be spent there as well-a prize worth fighting for. Moreover, the government believes projects like this help inspire people and encourage young South Africans to consider scientific careers. Naledi Pandor, the science and technology minister, is particularly supportive. She sees the SKA as a way to broaden the country's scientific base and diversify its current white, male-dominated complexion.

The bid also involves eight of South Africa's neighbours-Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia and Zambia-and could be the launch pad for a wider scientific renaissance in Africa. Australia will not give up easily, and the outcome may be that the telescope is shared, with some of the antennae in one country and the rest in the other. But even that half loaf would be a useful boost for South African science, and a sign that the traditional powers of the subject are willing to share the goodies.

Source of Information : The Economist Volume 401 Number 8758 Nov 05th - Nov 11th 2011

Better Health for the Uncounted Urban Masses

2011-12-17T00:27:00.000+08:00

Most of the people who moved to London, New York City, Chicago, Berlin and other big cities during the 19th century traded away their health to make better wages. Crowding, unsafe drinking water, bad sanitation, harsh working conditions and industrial pollution made them sicker than their cousins back home in the countryside and shortened their life spans. But starting in the middle decades of the 1800s, government reforms and urban leaders began turning the health of these cities around by investing in water, sanitation, waste removal, education and more. Today affluent cities are among the healthiest places to live. Even in many middle-income countries urban dwellers go about their lives largely unthreatened by the classic epidemics.

Yet the 800 million to 900 million people living in the informal settlements that make up modern-day slums still await such miracles. They suffer the effects of overcrowding, contaminated water and lack of affordable health care. In many of these places one in six children dies before the age of five, and life expectancies are less than half as long as those in the healthiest cities. The situation will not get better until governments take greater responsibility for the wellness of the poorest residents. Governments are often a large part of the problem, however. Most of the poorest settlements are on land that is illegally occupied or subdivided, so urban bureaucracies may ignore their existence. In addition, formal laws and institutions tend to assume that people can afford to live in sanitary homes and therefore often do more to marginalize communities that are at the edge of subsistence than to help them. Governments may also shy away from engaging with activists who encourage impoverished residents to organize around demands for improvements, but these organizers must be engaged if government programs that are put in place can hope to succeed.

Bright spots exist, however. Some local governments are now acknowledging the informal settlements and are collaborating with the inhabitants to install the health infrastructure and services needed. One of the most effective initiatives is the secure housing program run by the government of Thailand’s Community Organizations Development Institute, which has supported hundreds of community-driven upgrading schemes, including paying for better water and sewage infrastructure and lending money to shack dwellers to improve their homes. Federations of slum dwellers are working with local authorities to change conditions in more than 15 other nations. As these programs show, poor people’s health and their economic status both benefit most when governments, international agencies and slum dwellers work together to plan, implement and manage changes. More cities must see their “uncounted, unhealthy masses” as partners with resources and capacities if they want to complete a meaningful urban revolution.

Source of Information : Scientific American Magazine

Password Prevented

2011-12-14T00:20:00.000+08:00

In a world drowning in absurd security requirements, it’s nice to see a few islands of reason

Nobody seems to think_ much about passwords. After all, isn’t their purpose obvious? You need one on your bank account so that nobody else can use your money. You need one on your e-mail account so that strangers can’t find out your innermost thoughts. But I was astonished when my daughter told me that her school has instituted a new security initiative. Student passwords must now be at least eight characters long, must contain letters, numbers and punctuation, and may not incorporate any recognizable English word. And the password must be changed every 30 days.

Can you guess what this password is meant to lock down? The fifth-grade homework downloading Web page. That’s right. All of that inconvenience, memorization
And hassle is intended to make sure some disturbed maniac doesn’t read this week’s spelling list. Then there’s the video production company I worked with recently, which hired a new tech guy. The first thing he did was to declare the company’s network to be unsafe. He decided that workers could no longer choose their own passwords; he would supply them. They would be 12 characters long and consist of alphanumeric gibberish, and they would have to be changed every month.

He also blocked chat programs, e-mail attachments and YouTube. So is the production company more secure? That’s hard to say. They haven’t had any hacker break-ins—of course, they had never had any before, either. But there is a difference. Now the employees watch YouTube videos on their phones, use Gmail to get file attachments and keep their unmemorizable passwords on Post-It notes taped to the monitor. Nice going, Mr. Security.

My point, of course, is that while it’s important to be secure, it’s equally important to ask why—and to consider the trade-off between security and convenience. Obscure and harmless entities sometimes get locked up like Fort Knox, punishing nobody but the legitimate users. (Don’t even get me started on the Transportation Security Administration.) Other entities, such as Sony, Citibank and Lockheed Martin, are apparently not locked up enough. (Their computer systems were all hacked this past spring.)

It is actually possible to devise a system that ensures both security and convenience—if you’re smart. For example, if you reserve a room as a member of Omni Hotels’s Select Guest loyalty program, you can check in just by walking up to the counter and giving your name. They hand over your key and say, “Good evening, [your name here]. Have a great stay.”

They don’t ask for your ID. They don’t say, “May I have your credit card for incidentals?” They don’t tap on their keyboard for five minutes. They don’t ask you any questions. No interrogation of any kind. They have your key waiting, and they just hand it over. How can they get away with such lax security? Couldn’t some ruffian pose as you, take your key and crawl into the bed in your hotel room? It’s never happened in the history of the Omni’s Express check-in program. Why not? Because theru ruffians don’t know who you are or that you’ve booked a hotel room. And if you ever did arrive and find some evildoer in your bed, you would be able to clear up the confusion pretty quickly by showing your ID.

Here’s another example: When you buy a program from Apple’s online Mac App Store, the program is downloaded and installed on your Mac automatically. You are not prompted for your system password, you don’t click through any installer screens, there’s no warning about software downloaded from the Internet. It’s the height of convenience.

Shouldn’t Apple be more worried about security? No, because it’s done some thinking. It controls both ends of the transaction. It’s not worried about viruses or malware, because it’s providing the software itself. It doesn’t have to ask you if you want to install the software—of course you want to (otherwise, why would you be buying it?). Whether you’re an administrator, designer or consumer, in other words, it’s worth putting some thought into the security/convenience trade-off. Passwords have their place—but it’s not every place.

Source of Information : Scientific American Magazine

A new x-ray technique may herald improved baggage screening and mammograms

2011-12-10T23:45:00.000+08:00

Can You See Me Now?

X-rays can help reveal anything from bombs hidden in luggage to tumors in breasts, but some potentially vital clues might be too faint to capture with conventional methods. Now a new x-ray technique adapted from atom smashers could resolve more key details. Conventional x-ray imaging works much like traditional photography, relying on the light—in this case, x-rays—that a target absorbs, transmits and scatters. To make out fine details, one typically needs a lot of x-rays, either over time, which can expose targets to damaging levels of radiation, or all at once from powerful sources such as circular particle accelerators, or synchrotrons, which are expensive.

Instead physicist Alessandro Olivo of University College London and his colleagues suggest imaging an object by looking for very small deviations in an x-ray’s direction as it moves through that object. Their idea is to take such x-ray phase-contrast imaging, which has been used in synchrotrons for more than 15 years, and use it with conventional x-rays.

The scientists rig conventional x-ray sources with gold grates that are 100 microns or so thick— one in front of a target and one behind it. The holes on one grate do not line up exactly with the holes on the other, meaning x-rays that passed in straight lines through the first grate would get filtered out by the second, lowering background noise. The detector then analyzes only the photons that deviated in direction as they passed through the object. This can lead to at least 10 times greater contrast than conventional imaging—“ all details are more clearly visible, and details classically considered very hard to detect become detectable,”

Olivo says of findings reported recently in Applied Optics. Whereas bombs are usually visible in conventional x-ray imaging, they can be confused with other materials such as plastics or liquids. The scientists are now pushing imaging sensitivity even further with new grating designs and are working on 3-D scanning techniques by coming at the target from multiple angles.

This system can generate images in just seconds, far quicker than other x-ray phase-contrast techniques, which cannot exert as much power during scanning and thus require minutes, says radiation physicist David Bradley of the University of Surrey in England, who did not take part in this study. But it remains unclear if this system could work fast enough for security scanning, says materials scientist Philip Withers of the University of Manchester in England. Withers does think the technology could lead to better medical imaging, as well as improvements in detecting defects in materials used in aerospace work.

Source of Information : Scientific American Magazine 2011

Cooking That Sucks

2011-12-06T23:29:00.000+08:00

Vacuum pumps in the kitchen

Nature, famously, abhors a vacuum. But some cooks have learned to feel differently. Step through the swinging doors at the back of a top restaurant like Alinea in Chicago, and you may find vacuum pumps being used to reduce cooking juices into concentrated sauces, to distill essential oils from fruits and vegetables, to dehydrate chips or to brew coffee.

Many of these techniques originated in chemistry laboratories or industrial food-processing operations, and the equipment involved still evokes the bench scientist more than the top chef. But with all those Erlenmeyer flasks, innovative cooks have discovered ways to achieve culinary feats that are impractical by any conventional means.

Consider the common problem of concentrating the flavors and aromas that are in a dilute liquid mixture, such as a broth. The old-fashioned method—a long stovetop simmer to boil off the water—allows many of the most piquant and fragrant compounds to escape with the steam. The kitchen may smell great—but at the cost of a duller sauce. A lengthy sit over the heat also chemically alters many of those compounds that remain, so they no longer taste or smell fresh. A vacuum-reduction setup does a better job because it uses low pressure, rather than high heat, to accelerate evaporation. Pour the liquid into a Pyrex flask that has a side port and connect the flask to a vacuum pump with a rubber hose. Then drop in a magnetic rod, stopper the flask and put it on a hot plate, which uses a spinning magnet to stir and gently warm the broth while the pump reduces the air pressure inside the flask. As the pressure drops, the boiling point of the liquid falls as well; the goal is to sustain a mild, low-temperature boil.

That relatively simple setup greatly reduces chemical changes, but it still permits some aromatics to escape through the hose. A more expensive and complex bit of gear, called a rotary evaporator, can capture those vaporized essences and condense them back into liquid form. The cooks at our research kitchen in Bellevue, Wash., use this technique to concentrate apple juice, cabbage juice and vinegar to make a fantastic red coleslaw. Concentrated watermelon juice is also a delight.

Source of Information : Scientific American Magazine 2011

Wikipedia's fund-raising - Free but not easy

2011-12-01T01:31:00.000+08:00

The online encyclopedia needs its users' money and volunteers' time. Gaining the first is the easier task

MANY mocked, but the money rolled in. For the last few weeks of 2010 Jimmy Wales fixed his piercing gaze on Wikipedia users, imploring them from banner ads to help "the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit" pay its bills for this year. The founder's plea worked. Wikipedia reached its target of $16m in just so days (compared with $8.7m in 67 days at the end of 2009).

This month those pleading banners will return-but with many sets of eyes. Backing up the earnest Mr Wales in the attempt to raise $25m by the year-end will be Brandon Harris, a long-haired programmer wearing a full-sleeved T-shirt and a surly expression, who says he quit his job building "some crappy thing that's designed to steal money from some kid who doesn't know it" to work with Wikipedia. 400m unique users every month make it the world's fifth-biggest website, according to Alexa, an internet research company. It also has a good claim to be the world's most important provider of non-entertainment content.

Wikimedia Foundation, the non-profit company that runs the online encyclopedia, has devoted much effort towards finding a way around its reliance on its founder. The banner featuring Mr Harris was the first to outperform the one with Mr Wales, and more successes have followed. Though Wikimedia received $3.6m from a charity, the Stanton Foundation, it wants to raise money from large numbers of happy users rather than big donors who might want some clout for their cash.

Wikipedia has just 78 full-time staff (due to reach 117 in 2012) and 370 servers, against some 6o,ooo for Facebook and over 1m for Google. Unlike other internet giants, its content comes from unpaid editors. It spends 44% of its income on technology (including programmers); other administration costs make up just under a quarter. Fund-raising takes up 8% of the budget. It accepts no advertising.

Raising time
But raising cash to keep Wikipedia running is an easier task than getting people to donate time. Month-on-month article growth in the English Wikipedia was as high as 5% in 2006 but has stayed stubbornly at1% for the past two years. Worse, Wikipedia fears that without remedial steps, the number of active editors will decline to below 8o,ooo by the middle of next year (in March, the figure was 90,000).

Editors are a scarce and hardy breed. They must understand the site's policies, gain authority among other Wikipedians so that their decisions stick, and be able to write in the cumbersome code required by Wikipedia's software. Moreover, says Harry Newstead, Wikimedia's chief global development officer, 90% of users outside Wikipedia's "core community" aren't even aware that they can edit the encyclopedia. Users seem to ignore the plentiful invitations to get involved: "We're furniture in the living room," he says plaintively.

Sue Gardner, executive director of the Wikimedia Foundation, says she wants to break down the "psychological barrier" between reading and editing, so that improving an article feels like a natural extension of reading it. Attracting people dedicated (and thick-skinned) enough to fend off special interests and trolls (internet hooligans) is tough. So Wikipedia is trying to make its editors' lives simpler and more attractive. One move is to try to cut the number of discouraging automated messages warning editors of style breaches and other peccadillos.

Another change, due by the end of 2012, will make editing a lot easier, and more like using popular blogging software. But the Wikinauts are steering clear of the bandwidth- hungry features favoured by other content-rich websites. The aim is that a humble user visiting the site from a cheap mobile phone in Africa will find loading a page just as quick and simple as a richworld user with a powerful computer and a broad band connection.

By the end of this year, Wikimedia will have opened an office in India, its first outside the United States. Branching out to the far side of the world (rather than opening an office in somewhere comfortable like Europe) is meant to signal the foundation's global ambitions. India is a sensible choice for an outfit with limited resources: a large, English-speaking Wikipedia community already exists there. Indians are the fifthlargest donors and rank sixth among mostactive editors. The encyclopedia has two dozen versions in Indian languages. But even the largest of these, Hindi, has only 100,000 articles (against over 3.8m for English). 300m Hindi speakers mean plenty of scope for growth. India alone is expected to triple the number of its internet users to nearly 300m by 2014. The push should provide useful know-how for expansion under way in two other big growth areas: Brazil and the Arab-speaking world.

Despite rosy forecasts for emerging market growth, Wikipedia still faces two big obstacles. It is good that so many people in the developing world now access the encyclopedia from mobile phones, but such devices are ill-suited to editing. In deferential cultures and those with little experience of public participation, Wikipedia has also had particular trouble explaining that every single user has the right (and indeed the duty) to edit an article if he thinks he can improve it.

One solution is partnerships with universities. Wikipedia works with three institutions in the western Indian town of Pune, an education hub. Students are assigned a theme-corporate social responsibility, for example-and must write articles for course credit. They are happy to gain a wider readership than just their professors, while Wikipedia gets an enthusiastic batch of new recruits. Articles created through these partnerships range from topics as broad as "output (economics)" to an arcane entry on a 1985 committee on Indian monetary policy.

The aim is to encourage the indigenous creation of information and to lessen reliance on imports from outside. The university focus also helps Wikipedia inch closer to meeting one of its diversity targets-increasing the share of women editors from 9% in 2011 to 25% by 2015.

Wikipedia has suffered in the past from ill-informed criticism from outside, and complacency on the inside. Signs now are that both are diminishing. The idea that an online encyclopedia that anyone can edit can provide high-quality content is increasingly established. Wikipedia entries are rarely perfect, but their flaws are always open to instant remedy; that is a big plus. The outfit also seems to be moving away from its dependence on the charismatic Mr Wales, and from its over-reliance on a narrow caste of Anglophone enthusiasts. Wikipedia's survival and expansion are also encouraging signs for those that worry the internet is in danger of becoming too commercial and closed off. Wikipedia is not just collating knowledge: it is making news too.

Source of Information : The Economist Volume 401 Number 8758 Nov 05th - Nov 11th 2011

Banyan - Echoes of dreamland

2011-11-29T01:22:00.000+08:00

Forty years on, a cold-war security pact rooted in the colonial past survives

IT HAS not drawn much attention. But as 40th-birthday bashes go, it has been rather a spectacular affair. About 4,000 servicemen from five countries, 19 warships, 68 military aircraft and two submarines have been taking part in exercises in South-East Asia to mark the anniversary of the conclusion on November 1St 1971 of the "Five Power Defence Arrangements" (FPDA). And the five defence ministers-from Australia, Britain, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore-convened in Malaysia and Singapore to give the occasion a high-level gloss.

You might imagine that they would be discussing an overdue retirement for arrangements made for an entirely different world. The security threats perceived in 1971 have evaporated. British colonial rule, which had come to an end just a few years before, is now ancient history to most Singaporeans and Malaysians, born since independence. For them the idea of looking to the British, Australian and New Zealand armies for security must seem bizarre. Meanwhile, regional co-operation has spawned a plethora of new security forums and organisations.

Yet the FPDA survive, and show no signs of packing up. Indeed, sheer longevity has in some ways strengthened them. They remain, in a phrase coined in Australia's defence ministry, SouthEast Asia's only "multilateral security arrangement with an operational dimension". Their durability is testimony both to the flexibility of the armed forces that have looked after them, and to a continued nervousness about the region's security.

The FPDA were a response to Britain's precipitate withdrawal of its forces from "East of Suez", which caused deep anger and resentment in the other four countries. They are far from a fullfledged military alliance. They provide merely for the five countries to "consult" in the event of an attack on Singapore and Peninsular Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak, the Malaysian states on Borneo, are excluded). This gave Singapore and Malaysia breathing space to build up their own armed forces, while under some protection from British air defences.

Earlier in 1971, when asked in Parliament in London about the threat the arrangements were intended to counter, Edward Heath, prime minister at the time, referred to "forces outside [Malaysia] in southern Thailand and north of the Malaysian border". Presumably, he meant the communist insurgency still simmering in the border area. Presumably, too, he was fibbing tactfully: the real danger was seen as Indonesia, which until recently had been eyeing Malaysia and Singapore as bits of its territory lopped off by an accident of colonial history. Among other worries, the Philippines had not dropped a claim to Sabah. And, of course, the Vietnam war was raging, raising fears of South-East Asian dominoes toppling to Soviet-aligned communism.

Malaysia's and Thailand's armed communists have long given up the ghost. Indonesia and the Philippines have for over 40 years been joined with Malaysia and Singapore in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and have stopped pursuing irredentist claims. Even Vietnam, the first domino in the queue, has been part of the family since 1995. And Britain's weight in the world has dwindled, as have its defence budgets. Even before its latest defence review outlined painful cuts, and despite the war in Afghanistan, Britain's defence expenditure, as a proportion of GDP, was less than half what it was in 1971.

So the FPDA's survival seems puzzling. Partly, put it down to inertia-no compelling reason to terminate them. But also all five powers gain different benefits from them. Britain keeps a toehold in South-East Asia. New Zealand and Australia, which has made the biggest commitment of the "travelling" powers, see their own security as bound up with that of the region. Singapore and Malaysia acquire expertise and training from the other armies. Importantly, their armies also learn to work together, even when relations between their governments occasionally turn fractious.

The FPDA have also deftly diversified. The ministers now discuss piracy, cybersecurity and humanitarian and disaster-relief operations. And the pact provides a mild sort of reassurance against other forms of instability. In the late 1990s that again meant Indonesia, in turmoil after the end of the Suharto dictatorship, sparking fears of disintegration and mass flight.

Now, though it is a fear that dares not speak its name, it means China, and the assertive posture it has adopted in recent years towards disputed territorial claims, such as in the South China Sea. As Philip Hammond, Britain's defence minister, put it this week, a possible threat to regional security is a "miscalculation over a territorial claim, probably over an island somewhere". Another area of possible miscalculation might be the Malacca Strait, through which most of China's oil passes.

Tim Huxley, in Singapore for the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a British think-tank, points out that there is no way the FPDA can be part of "a balancing mechanism" to China, or that it will come into play in the South China Sea. Of the five, only Malaysia has a direct stake there. Rather, the FPDA's persistence reflects "a concern that the distribution of power is in flux, creating a pervasive sense of insecurity that is hard to pin down."

On the way to the forum
The bewildering array of regional security talking-shops has so far failed to still such worries. Most hopes now are vested in a grouping known, with Asia's flair for alphabetical nomenclature, as the ADMM+ (for ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting). It groups ASEAN with America, China, India, Japan, Russia and South Korea, as well as Australia and New Zealand. One day, it might become a forum for settling disputes. Today it is barely even one for airing them. And in that context, the FPDA provide members with a vague sense of comfort that is also hard to pin down, and certainly less easy to explain than the premise of their 40th-anniversary exercises: the seizure of an island by a hostile power.

Source of Information : The Economist Volume 401 Number 8758 Nov 05th - Nov 11th 2011

Transport in South Africa - By the seat of your cheap pants

2011-11-24T00:30:00.000+08:00

ASK any middle-class South African.what are his country's worst scourges and taxis will almost certainly come in the top four, along with violent crime, HIV I AIDS and corruption. By taxi people do not mean the Western-style saloon cab but the privately owned 16-seat minibus "kombi", used throughout Africa as the main form of public transport. It is cheap, friendly, convenient and performs a vital service in countries with meagre public transport systems. But it is often lethal-for both passengers and other road users.

South Africa has 15o,ooo taxis, almost all owned and operated by blacks, carrying some 15m passengers a day, with a turnover of R16.5 billion ($2.2 billion) a year. Often dented and overloaded, they have no timetables or formal stops but swerve at high speed in and out of traffic, carving up other drivers, running through red lights and mowing down pedestrians in their rush to pick up passengers on the kerb. Competition is fierce and drivers' pay is usually a cut of the day's takings. They are a law unto themselves and the police generally seem to turn a blind eye.

South Africa has one of the world's highest road accident rates, with around 14,000 deaths a year. Many victims are minibus passengers; a disproportionate number are children. The Automobile Association found that minibus taxis were involved in almost 200 crashes a day, twice the rate of other passenger vehicles. Owners tend to cut costs by skimping on repairs. Many drivers are unlicensed.

In the past, the police have seemed to ignore taxi-drivers' lawlessness. But in a bid to stop the carnage, the transport minister, Sbu Ndebele, recently ordered a crackdown on all road offenders. In the past 11 months, more than 14m vehicles have been stopped and checked, 6m fines issued, 20,000 drunk drivers arrested, and more than so,ooo defective vehicles taken off the roads, most of them buses and taxis. In September alone, some 1,500 lawbreaking public-transport drivers were arrested. Mr Ndebele has called for reckless drivers who cause death to be charged with murder.

The South African National Taxi Council, representing some 95% of taxi operators, has aired the idea of launching a low-cost taxi airline to cater for the urban poor, few of whom have been anywhere near a plane. It says it might one day fly between Johannesburg, Cape Town and Bisho, capital of the Eastern Cape province, almost as cheaply as going by kombi. It has yet to explain how costs can be kept so low. Few South Africans dare ask.

Source of Information : The Economist Volume 401 Number 8758 Nov 05th - Nov 11th 2011

New Help for Smokers

2011-11-17T00:10:00.001+08:00

An antinicotine vaccine is moving closer to regulatory approval

As any smoker can tell you, quitting is relatively easy. The hard part is avoiding relapse—the urge to light up weeks or even months after you have supposedly kicked the habit. The patch, the gum and all the other tricks smokers use to get through the first few months are often powerless against those later urges.

That is one reason why an antinicotine vaccine now wending its way through clinical trials has public health officials so excited. Like all vaccines, NicVAX, made by NABI Biopharmaceuticals works by stimulating the body’s immune system to produce antibodies against a certain target—in this case, nicotine. Because immune responses are generally lifelong, the vaccine makers say it could serve as a longterm antismoking aid.

Normally nicotine molecules are small enough to evade detection by the immune system.
They are even small enough to slip past the blood-brain barrier and bind to receptors on brain cells, where they trigger a chemical cascade that leads to addiction. NicVAX floods the body with nicotine molecules that have been chemically attached to large, carrier proteins, forcing the immune system to recognize and deploy antibodies against the cigarette ingredient. Then, when ordinary nicotine molecules enter the system, those antibodies bind to them, making them too large to cross the blood-brain barrier.

The vaccine doesn’t work for everyone. An earlier trial showed that 16 percent of heavy smokers who were vaccinated and had high antibody levels remained abstinent from cigarettes one year after quitting, compared with 6 percent of the placebo group. Those who produced high antibodies but did not quit cut their smoking in half, from around 20 cigarettes a day to 10.

Results from wider, or “phase III,” trials are expected as early as September. For these studies, researchers recruited 1,000 smokers who consume at least 10 cigarettes a day. The volunteers received five to six injections spaced roughly one month apart and were asked to quit after 14 weeks, when around 80 percent of subjects have high antibody levels. (Why 20 percent of subjects fail to produce a high antibody response to the vaccine is unclear.). “The idea is to ensure that when we tell them to quit, they have the tools—the antibodies— to help them,” says NABI CEO Raafat E. F. Fahim. He and his team have yet to determine how long patients will need to get shots.

If results from the phase III trials are as good as everyone expects, the vaccine could hit pharmacy shelves soon after. Meanwhile researchers are already at work on other antiaddiction vaccines, including one against cocaine that employs the same strategy as NicVAX.

Source of Information : Scientific American Magazine

Currency controls in Argentina - Unfree exchange

2011-11-14T00:26:00.001+08:00

An ill-advised attemptto prop up the peso

INFLATION and capital flight have steadily weakened Argentina's peso since Cristina Fernandez became president in 2007. Back then one peso bought $0.32; today it buys just $0.24, despite recent support from the central bank. Long accustomed to currency crises, Argentines price homes and cars in dollars, and race into green backs at the first sign of economic trouble. Fresh from re-election, Ms Fernandez is now preemptively stopping them from trying. On October 31St the government began requiring bureaux de change and banks, who could previously conduct transactions with little oversight, to submit clients' tax-identification numbers online to the tax agency for approval. It sent 4,400 inspectors to moneychangers nationwide to enforce the rule. Officially, the restriction targets money-laundering. "People above board should remain calm," said Amado Boudou, the economy minister. "Those in the black economy should be very nervous." But in practice it is ensnaring everyone. Some operators closed their doors, saying they had to process the new rules. Those that did open drew queues up to two hours long. Yet most people who lined up waited in vain: around 70% were rejected on the first day, including many who were wrongly accused of lacking legitimate funds to change the sums they had put forward.

If the government hoped to strengthen the peso or improve financial transparency, it has accomplished the opposite. Fearful they would lose access to hard currency, investors bought Argentina's dollar-denominated bonds and dumped their peso equivalents. If legitimate exchanges remain blocked, a black currency market will surely emerge. These could just be teething troubles while the new system beds down. Even if Ms Fernandez is serious about imposing currency controls, she may have to retreat if an uproar ensues. However, nervous Argentines must feel even more jittery now that a presidential whim can stop them from changing money.

Source of Information : The Economist Volume 401 Number 8758 Nov 05th - Nov 11th 2011

Greece's w-oes

2011-11-10T00:38:00.004+08:00

The markets are not the euro's only threat. Voters may be too

EVEN by the euro zone's undemanding standards, a summit deal that survived less than a week is lamentable. Early on October 27th Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, hailed a "comprehensive package" to save the euro. Yet by the time The Economist went to press, their plans were in tatters. Greece's prime minister, George Papandreou, looked doomed, rejected by some of his ministers, many in his party-and, possibly, most of his country.

The shallowness of the summit's achievements has been brutally exposed. Instead of settling into a period of calm, markets were thrown into new turmoil. One way or another, the euro is destined for an unavoidable test of popular support. Unless the euro zone's leaders shape up, this is an encounter their currency may well lose.

Heed the messenger
Mr Papandreou was in part the author of his own misfortune. Seeking the backing of the Greek people in a referendum, he was immediately condemned in the capitals of Europe as a fool or a traitor. Why had he wrecked all their good worl
There is no disputing that Mr Papandreou, in spectacularly chaotic style, has left the euro zone racked by uncertainty. His referendum now seems unlikely to take place. Perhaps Pasok, his party, will enter a government of national unity with New Democracy, the opposition, headed by a technocrat. Perhaps there will be an election. Perhaps even these plans will fall apart, just as the last did. All the while, the clock is ticking: within a month or so, Greece must receive fresh funds from the IMF and its European rescuers-or messily default.

Mr Papandreou has created an almighty mess, but he is better cast as the messenger than the villain. He was not to blame for the summit's shortcomings. The spreads between Italian and German government debt had begun to widen well before Mr Papandreou dropped his bombshell. If the euro zone had put a credible firewall around the government bonds of Italy and other troubled euro countries, a Greek default would not now be threatening contagion. Stable sovereign borrowers would have helped to safeguard Europe's banks, and a decent plan to strengthen the weakest banks would have secured the door. But last week's summit deal-concocting ajerry-built firewall and asking the banks to boost their capital ratios by June next year-was not up to scratch. No wonder the markets took fright only days later.

At one level, Mr Papandreou does not deserve blame even for seeking a mandate on the summit's main achievement (though he must now be ruing his decision). Although the proposal to write down the face value of privately held Greek government debt by so% would be substantial and welcome, Greece's stock of debt would, even on best assumptions, still add up to 120% of G DP by 2020. All the while, the Greek people would be living with austerity.

Hence Mr Papandreou's most important message. Until now the euro crisis has chiefly been about pressure from the markets. But a country's finances are not defined by markets alone. Rather the limits of solvency are tested by people's willingness to accept tax rises and spending cuts. A government runs out of political capital long before it runs out of things to tax. In the end, won't pay matters more than can't pay. Greece is farther down this road than any other member of the euro zone-even though other countries such as Portugal and Ireland have already seen their governments toppled and Spain is about to follow suit. Beset by rebels in his own party, by a hostile media and by strikes and protests, Mr Papandreou concluded that he would find it hard to impose the austerity being asked of Greece. Every quarter the EU, the IMF and the European Central Bank (ECB) scrutinise Greece before releasing the next chunk of money. With nowhere to hide, he decided to appeal over the heads of his opponents to the people. Greece's next government, whatever its composition, cannot escape the growing resentment of the country's political class. A growing but still small contingent of Greeks wants to defy the Eu's treaties and quit the euro altogether. Fully 60% reject the summit deal. But Greek withdrawal still looks like a terrible mistake. Depositors would rush to pull their money out of Greek banks to protect their savings from being converted into new drachma. Greek firms would be bankrupted by their euro debts. The gain in competitiveness from devaluation would be transient if, as is likely, wages inflated along with prices. Even Greece's EU membership would be in doubt.

Whattodo?
Greece's government must wisely spend what scant political capital it may have. Above all, the economy needs to grow. Despite their anger, 70% of Greeks say they want to remain in the euro, but their tolerance for austerity has limits. The government must devote less effort to growth-destroying tax rises and instead undertake growth-promoting structural reforms. It will have to begin facing down public-sector unions and enforcing barely implemented reforms. Mr Papandreou's government consistently took the easy way out. The euro zone's emphasis on austerity rather than structural reforms has aggravated Greece's political woes. Instead it should favour medium-term fiscal consolidation. The creditor nations could boost domestic demand, to provide a bigger market for debtors' exports. Most of all, they should dispel the threat of contagion by putting the ECB's balance-sheet behind the debt of solvent governments, like Italy and Spain. Throughout this crisis, creditors-particularly Germany-have worried about being too soft on the euro zone's weaklings, for fear that they would go slow on reform. Mr Papandreou has shown that they also need to worry about being too austere.

Source of Information : The Economist Volume 401 Number 8758 Nov 05th - Nov 11th 2011

秦始皇

2009-12-09T08:26:00.004+08:00

杰出的政治家和军事家。他结束了春秋战国时期征战纷乱的局面，建立了中国历史上第一个统一的中央集权制的封建国家，成为载入中国史册的第一位皇帝。

人物档案
姓名：嬴政
生卒年：公元前259 年～前210 年
出生地：赵国邯郸(今河北邯郸)
身份：秦朝开国皇帝

时代背景
嬴政出生于周朝末年，这一时期的周朝已开始衰落。从公元前5世纪开始，时局变得极为混乱，血腥战乱的时代到来。国家呈现分裂割据的局面，诸侯国纷纷崛起，其中秦、韩、赵、魏、齐、燕、楚七国的势力较强大，史称“战国七雄”。各国为争夺霸主地位而展开激烈的争战，连年的战争使当时的社会经济遭到严重破坏，同时也给人民带来了巨大的灾难。公元前4 世纪末，位于渭河流域西部边陲的秦国在众诸侯国中崛起，特别是公元前347 年，秦孝公任用商鞅变法之后，秦国国力日渐强盛。公元前247 年，赢政即位的时候，秦国的疆土已由陕西扩展到四川、湖北西
部、山西南部及河南的中部，成为七国中最繁盛、最强大的国家。

生平纪事
秦始皇，姓嬴，名政，出生于赵国的首都邯郸，是秦庄襄王之子。公元前247 年，庄襄王去世后，13 岁的嬴政继承了王位。但是当时国政由相国吕不韦把持，嬴政并没有实权。公元前238 年，22岁的嬴政抓住时机，消灭了吕不韦和的反对势力，开始亲理国家大事，并重用李斯等人。嬴政善于用人，并且能把握时机。即位后，他采用李斯和尉僚的建议，制订了一个统一六国的战略：一方面派姚贾等人带着大批金钱财物出使各国，收买各国的宠臣将相，削弱各国的抗秦力量；另一方面派“良将随其后”，运用“远交近攻”的策略，集中优势兵力，各个击破。公元前236年，秦用计挑起燕赵之间的战争，然后借口救燕，出兵大败赵国。公元前234 年，秦国再次出兵，斩首赵军十万。赵国被迫调回防守匈奴的李牧部队。这是赵国的精锐部队，李牧又善于用兵。尽管打退了秦军进攻，但赵军伤亡惨重。秦国还破坏了赵国联齐抗秦的计划，赵军无可奈何，只得孤军奋战。韩国是战国七雄中实力最弱的一个。韩国公子韩非力主改革，遭到韩王的回绝。后来韩非在秦国被李斯用计害死，韩国抗秦力量更弱，只得坐以待毙。公元前230 年，秦军俘获韩王安，尽取韩国土地。韩国成为六国中第一个被秦灭掉的国家。就在秦灭韩的同年，赵国发生严重的灾荒，秦军趁机再次起兵攻赵。秦施用离间计，令赵王杀了李牧。李牧死后，赵军军心涣散，溃不成军。公元前228年，秦国王翦攻破邯郸，赵王迁被俘。公子嘉自立为代王，进行垂死抵抗。不久，赵国即灭。秦国在攻赵的同时，又兵临燕境。燕国无力抵抗，太子丹企图以刺杀秦王的办法挽回败局，于是便有了“荆轲刺秦王”之事。但刺秦失败，嬴政大怒，派王翦讨伐燕国。公元前226 年，秦兵攻
下燕都蓟，燕王逃奔辽东郡，燕国名存实亡。公元前222 年，秦兵攻下了辽东，俘虏燕王，燕国灭亡。秦灭韩、赵，重创燕国以后，北方大部分地区已为秦国所有，只剩地处中原、孤立无援的魏国。公元前225 年，嬴政派王翦之子王贲讨伐魏国。秦军引黄河水灌城，攻陷魏都大梁，魏国灭亡。秦国灭了韩、赵、魏、燕四国之后，嬴政便有些轻敌，派李信和蒙恬仅领兵二十万攻楚。结果为楚军大败。公元前224年，嬴政亲自请王翦领兵出征。王翦领六十万兵马讨伐楚国。不出一年，王翦大败楚军，虏楚王负刍，至此楚国灭亡。秦国灭楚国之后，接着统一了浙、闽、赣、粤、桂一带分布的许多少数民族部族。五国灭亡后，只剩下东面的齐国。公元前221年，秦军直插齐国都城临淄。秦军兵临城下，齐王不战而降，齐国灭亡。至此，嬴政用了十年的时间消灭六国，统一了天下，结束了诸侯割据混战的局面。战国时期，北方的匈奴贵族经常率兵南下抢掠。公元前215年，嬴政派蒙恬领兵收复了河套以南的地区。为了防御匈奴，嬴政又下令将原来燕、赵、秦北边的长城连接起来，建成一条长达万余里的长城，从而解除了秦国北方边境的严重威胁，保障了这一地区经济和文化的发展。然而，嬴政统一全国后，生活开始奢华起来：在骊山修建自己的陵墓；在咸阳筑宫室145 处，藏美女上万人；又在渭南上林苑造阿房宫。嬴政称皇帝后，在位十二年，出巡全国5 次，目的在于示强威、镇海内。公元前210年，嬴政南巡至会稽，祭祀大禹；7 月，返至黄河平原津，卧病不起，行至巨鹿郡沙丘行宫病逝，终年50岁。

生活剪影
他雄才大略，横扫六合，驭使天下臣民如役犬马；他功勋盖天，开国创制，为万世法；他焚书坑儒，法酷役重，修长城，建阿房，创盛极一时的大秦王朝。他就是彪炳史册的千古一帝—秦始皇。秦始皇是中国历史上罕有的雄霸之主，生性残暴，但却能克制本性，帝王心术深不可测。为千秋大业着想，他卑恭谦逊，豁达大度，招揽人才，又纳谏如流，知错就改，终于结束了八百年的纷乱割据。但他未能摆脱长生不老的诱惑，开始追仙求道，由英明睿智变得昏庸无道。出巡立威秦始皇在短短
的十年中便兼并六国，统一天下。但是他的政权并不稳固，因为六国贵族都不甘心于亡国，时刻图谋复辟，加上当时北方匈奴、东胡等少数民族经常南下骚扰，对新建立的统一帝国都构成了严重威胁。因此，秦始皇在统一中原后，便立即大张旗鼓，马不停蹄地“亲巡天下，周览远方”。他曾5 次出巡，西北、东南的广袤大地上几乎遍布他的足迹。秦始皇出巡的目的是为了视察边疆的防务，广播皇帝的声威，从而加强对全国各地的专制统治。他每次出巡，都有隆重威武的仪仗及庞大的车队随从，声势显赫，耀武扬威，前呼后拥，极大地满足了他君临天下的欲望。出巡时，秦始皇每到一处名山胜地，便系马刻石立碑。这些石刻和碑文内容大同小异，无一不是歌颂自己统一天下的丰功伟绩和从事建设、鼓励生产的非凡成就。为了进一步神化他作为皇帝的无上权威，秦始皇还亲自主持对名山大川的封禅大典。东岳泰山被称为“五岳之尊”，帝王都渴求到泰山举行封禅大典，祭祀天地，表示自己受命于天，秦始皇当然也不例外。他在举行过封禅仪式后还不忘刻石留念，为自己歌功颂德。

寻仙访药
秦始皇登上权力的巅峰之后，便特别看重自己的生命，对于死亡比平常人更加恐惧。每当秦始皇想到自己百年之后将会变成肉腐蛆生、恶臭难闻的尸骸时，便会陷入深深的恐惧之中。当时，各国都有很多人热衷于神仙之道，这更加刺激了他对长生不老的幻想。因此他千方百计地寻找长生不死的仙药。得知秦始皇热衷于寻求仙药和神仙之道，各国方士便蜂拥而至，投其所好，争先恐后地向他游说所谓的仙术。秦始皇对此都信以为真，而且对这些方士倍加尊崇。公元前219 年，秦始皇东巡郡县，到达齐故地东海之滨。齐国有个方士徐福上书说：“在东海之中有蓬莱、方丈、瀛州三座仙岛，上住仙人。”秦始皇听后，拿出数万钱，派出数千童男童女随同徐福入海求仙。然而，徐福带着财宝和几千童男童女一去便杳无音信。他究竟去过什么地方，没有人知道。过了几年，秦始皇又派韩终、侯公、石生等人去找寻神仙，求长生不老之药。方士们自知无从得仙药，因此石生等人又骗秦始皇以“微行”隐蔽自己的行踪，然后才可得仙药。秦始皇遂又演出了一场场自欺欺人的闹剧，耗费大量财力，给百姓带来沉重的负担，结果可想而知。

政治韬略
秦始皇创建了中国历史上第一个统一的、多民族的、专制主义中央集权的封建帝国。在武力平定天下之后，他还推行了一系列的改革措施，这对于中国政治、经济和文化的统一和发展起到了巨大的作用。首先，秦始皇改变了历来的帝王称号。在此之前，历代君王或称“皇”或称“帝”，均源引远古的传说三皇和五帝。秦始皇认为自己的功劳高过了三皇和五帝，就将皇和帝合在一起称“皇帝”。由皇帝来掌握全国的政权，不再分封诸侯。秦始皇对中央政治体制也进行了改革。皇帝之下设三公九卿。三公是丞相、太尉和御史大夫。丞相是最高行政长官，辅助皇帝处理政务；太尉则是最高的军政长官，负责军事事务；御史大夫负责监察百官，也是副丞相，皇帝的诏令一般由御史大夫转交给丞相去执行。三公的下面是九卿：奉常，掌管宗庙礼仪；郎中令，掌管禁卫军；卫尉，掌管宫门卫兵的首领；太仆，负责侍从皇帝，掌管皇帝的车马；廷尉，掌管全国的司法事务；典客，负责国家的外交事务及少数民族的事务；宗正，专门管理皇室事务；治粟内史，管理中央财政，并负责全国的税收工作；少府，管理归皇帝私有的山川湖泊和宫廷手工业。在地方，秦始皇为加强君主集权，实行郡县制，代替原来的分封制。秦始皇在全国设立36郡，郡下设县。郡的长官是郡守，县的官职有两个名称：县令(万户以上)，县长(万户以下)。县以下依次是乡、亭、里、什、伍。秦始皇推行重农抑商政策，扶植封建土地私有制。公元前216 年，秦始皇下令：占有土地的地主和自耕农只要向政府申报土地数额，交纳赋税，其土地所有权就得到国家的承认和保护。他又以商鞅所制订的度量衡为标准，统一了全国的度量衡制度；将秦国时期的圆形方孔钱作为全国统一货币；为发展全国水陆交通，又实行“车同轨”。除政治体制改革外，秦始皇还采取了一系列的措施来巩固集权统治。他下令将原来六国的首都和各自修造的长城拆毁，然后统一修造抵御北方匈奴的长城。秦长城西起陇西林洮( 今甘肃岷县)，东到辽东(今大同江一带)，东西长达万里。他下令没收天下的兵器，然后熔化铸成12个巨大的铜人，每个铜人重12 万千克，以威慑天下，防止作乱。同时，修建官道，即驰道。秦官道以咸阳为中心，共修成三条：一条向北通到了内蒙，叫做直道；一条通向东面的河北和山东，直到海边；一条向南，通两湖和江苏。驰道的建立，大大缩短了信息传递的时间，有利于中央集权的加强和政令的及时传达。此外，为根绝先前六国后裔的反叛行动，秦始皇将六国后裔贵族们连同富豪一起迁到咸阳，既便于监视，同时也繁荣了都城的经济。秦始皇以秦国通行的文字为基础，规定小篆为统一使用的文字，颁行全国。为加强思想控制，巩固统一，秦始皇于公元前213年下令销毁民间所藏《诗》、《书》、百家语，禁止私学。此令颁布以后，有一部分儒生、方士在背后诋毁秦始皇。秦始皇令人追查，前后牵连儒生、方士四百余人，全部坑杀于咸阳。这就是历史上著名的“焚书坑儒”事件。在军事上，秦始皇称帝后，派蒙恬率兵出击匈奴。在征服南方的百越地区后，他设置了桂林、象郡、南海三郡。到秦始皇末年，秦郡数量由统一之初的36 郡增至40 余郡，其版图“东至海暨朝鲜，西至临洮、羌中，南至北向户，北据河为塞，并阴山至辽东。”

影响评述
秦始皇统一中国后，实行了一系列苛政，比如修建长城、骊山陵墓、阿房宫等，终于使人民不堪驱使压迫，掀起了大起义，最终推翻了秦朝的统治。秦朝存在的时间虽然很短，但却具有重要的历史意义。秦始皇开创的专制主义中央集权制对于国家的统一和政权的巩固发挥了重要作用。尽管在秦始皇死后没几年秦朝便宣告灭亡，但这一制度却没有随之消亡。继秦之后建立起来的汉朝，承袭了秦始皇建立的体制。事实上，在中国延续两千多年之久的封建集权体制基本上是秦制的逐步演变。秦始皇开创了政治、经济、文化方面的统一局面，这意味着中国统一格局的形成。秦始皇统一南方和东南后，派遣数十万内地人民到南方去戍守，把中原先进的生产技术和工具带到南方，促进了当地经济水平的提高。在开发南部地区的过程中，秦始皇不仅修通了道路，还开凿了灵渠，使长江水系同珠江水系连结起来，对中原地区同南方、西南的经济文化交流起了重要的作用。经过对匈奴、越族的战争，秦的疆域空前辽阔，成为当时世界上最大的国家。在这个广阔地域内居住着各族人民，由于统一在一个国家政权之下，相互之间的经济、文化联系进一步增强了，并消除了各民族之间由于战争所带来的敌对情绪，促进了民族融合。

第36计　试探计

2009-12-07T03:11:00.000+08:00

——知何用委婉的语言表明态度

　　1．拐弯抹角的“探路法”
　　西安事变前夕，张学良和杨虎城频繁晤面，都有心对蒋发难。可对于这样一个关系到身家性命和国家前途的大事，在对方亮明态度之前，谁也不敢轻易开门。眼看时间越来越近，双方都是欲说还休。
　　杨虎城手下有个著名的共产党员叫王炳南，张学良也认识。在又一次的晤面中，杨虎城便托他之口说道：“王炳南是个激进分子，他主张扣留蒋介石！”张学良及时接口道：“我看这也不失为一个办法。”于是两个聪明的将军开始商谈行动计划。
　　当时，张学良的实力比杨虎城大得多，且又是蒋的拜把子兄弟。杨虎城如果直接把自己的观点摆在张的面前，而张又不赞同，后果实在堪忧。于是便借了并不在场的第三者之口传出心声，即使不成也可全身而退，另谋他策。这种兼有拉“挡箭牌”的自保功用，妙不可言。
　　第三种巧绕过回的方法为实话虚说，借机抒情。19世纪俄国著名作家陀思妥耶夫斯基便是以此奇术摸清了小秘书的芳心，“逼”她供出了底牌。
　　1866年，对陀思妥耶夫斯基是具有重要意义的一年。妻子玛丽亚和他的哥哥相继病逝。为了还债，他为出版商赶写小说《赌徒》，请了速记员，她叫安娜·格利戈里耶夫娜，一个年仅20岁，性情异常善良和聪明活泼的少女。
　　安娜非常崇拜陀思安耶夫斯基，工作认真，一丝不苟。书稿《赌徒》完成后，作家已经爱上了他的速记员，但不知道安娜是否愿意做他的妻子，便把安娜请到他的工作室，对安娜说：“我又在构思一部小说。”“是一部有趣的小说吗？”她问。“是的。只是小说的结尾部分还没有安排好，一个年轻姑娘的心理活动我把握不住，现在只有求助于你了。”他见安娜在谛听，继续说，“小说的主人公是个艺术家，已经不年轻了……”
　　主人公的经历就是作家自己，安娜听出来了，她忍不住打断他的话：“你干什么折磨你的主人公呢？”“看来你好像同情他？”作家问安娜。
　　“我非常同情，他有一颗善良的心，充满爱的心。他遭受不幸，依然渴望爱情，热切期望获得幸福。”安娜有些激动。陀思妥耶夫斯基接着说，“用作者的话说，主人公遇到的姑娘，温柔、聪明、善良，通达人情，算不上美人，但也相当不错。我很喜欢她。”
　　“但很难结合，因为两人性格、年龄悬殊。年轻的姑娘会爱上艺术家吗？这是不是心理上的失真？我请你帮忙，听听你的意见。”作家征求安娜的意见。
　　“怎么不可能！如果两人情投意合，她为什么不能爱艺术家？难道只有相貌和财富才值得去爱吗？只要她真正爱他，她就是幸福的人，而且永远不会后悔。”
　　“你真的相信，她会爱他？而且爱一辈子？”作家有些激动，又有点犹豫不决，声音颤抖着，显得窘迫和痛苦。
　　安娜怔住了，终于明白他们不仅仅是在谈文学，而且在构思一个爱情绝唱的序曲。安娜小姐的真实心理正如她自己所言，她非常同情主人公，即作家陀思妥耶夫斯基的遭遇，且从内心里爱慕这位伟大的作家，如果模棱两可地回答作家的话，对他的自尊和高傲将是可怕的打击。于是安娜激动地告诉作家：“我将回答，我爱你，并且会爱一辈子。”
　　后来，作家同安娜结为伉俪，在安娜的帮助下，陀思妥耶夫斯基还清了压在身上的全部债务，并在短短的后半生写出了许多不朽之作。陀思妥耶夫斯基向安娜求爱的妙计，历来被世人当作爱情佳话，广为传诵。
　　2．学会“曲线救家”
　　小俩口过日子难免会磕磕绊绊，在处理这些矛盾时，不应过于任性，目无遮拦，而应顾忌自己的行为后果，有的时候不妨来一个“曲线救家”。
　　比如说，掌管“家庭财政”的妻子一旦发现了丈夫秘密存放的私房钱后该怎么办？显然，如果怒容相对、歇斯底里一通大闹，势必会影响夫妻之间的感情，使家庭蒙上阴影；但若麻木不仁、听之任之，又失去了作为一个妻子的家庭责任感。如何处理才既不影响夫妻感情，又不失妻子应有的家庭责任感呢？
　　①投石问路，试探反应。
　　不直接询问或揭穿丈夫的秘密，而是采用其他途径跟丈夫沟通。这样做的好处起码有三：一是让丈夫暗中下了“台阶”，不致使丈夫陷入尴尬境地；二是给丈夫留有思考和处理问题的余地，防止夫妻之间发生正面冲突；三是表现了对丈夫的信任和应负的责任。这种方法较好地保留了丈夫的面子，无伤夫妻之间的感情，能够促使丈夫自觉地坦总存私房钱的用意。
　　有位先生与妻子感情颇深。一次，其妻在整理丈夫的书架时，无意间发现丈夫的书籍里夹有l000元钱。其妻想：平时未听丈夫说起过这笔钱，那么，他存私房钱有何用？于是，这位颇有心计的妻子在丈夫的私钱旁留下了一张纸条：“你攒得好辛苦啊，不过，我相信你不会胡花！”一连数日，妻子都像没事一样。直到有一天，丈夫又往书中放钱时，发现了妻子的纸条，才主动跟妻袒露心迹：“你终于发现了我的秘密，这是我用稿费积攒的钱。我看你嫁给我后省吃俭用，没一件首饰，所以，我想等攒够了钱给你买条金项链，给你一个意外的惊喜。”丈夫一席话，说得妻子直流泪。
　　③走个“弯路”，迂回探询。
　　曲线迂回探询丈夫存私房钱的用意。最普通的方法是，自己不直接出面询问，而让家庭其他成员出面探询。比如，让公婆或已懂事的孩子去转达你的意思，然后等待丈夫的信息反馈。
　　有一名男子平时几乎把所有的收入都交给妻子，因此，妻子对他绝对放心。然而，有一天，妻子在丈夫写字桌的抽屉里发现了500元钱。妻子疑窦顿生：丈夫对己一贯忠诚，为何这会儿私下攒钱？凭这位妻子当时的火气，真想待丈夫回家后狠狠地责问他一顿。可是，她还是冷静下来，想：如果自己直接责问，丈夫没了退路，一定非常难堪；再说，丈夫私下攒钱，也许有什么原因。于是，她授意上初中的儿子出面去打探。果然，丈夫在妻子面前透了实底：那500元钱是丈夫搞一个科研项目得到的奖金，他打算在岳父70寿辰时作为寿礼交给妻子。至此，妻子不仅心中的疑窦释然，误会消除，而且在心里升起一股感激。
　　夫妻吵架后的“讲和”，也可采用迂而回之，曲线和解的策略，维护家庭和睦。
　　可以肯定地说，几乎没有人在吵架之后毫无尴尬之感地对对方说：别吵了，我们讲和吧！如果真的有人这样做过，出现下面这种局面的可能性很大：对方把眼一瞪，更加生气地说：“你给我气受的时候怎么没想起来讲和，把我气得半死，现在想起来讲和了，没那么容易。”
　　直截了当地讲和往往会遭到失败，但间接的讲和往往会成功。比如丈夫和妻子刚吵了一架，丈夫苦于不知道如何跟妻子和解，正在这关键时刻，襁褓中的孩子哭了。妻子赶紧把孩子抱了起来，哄了一会，孩子仍然哭个不停。丈夫赶紧凑过去：孩子可能饿了。
　　妻子：你知道孩子饿了，还不快去冲奶粉！
　　丈夫冲好了奶粉，调好了温度走过来把奶瓶递给妻子，关切地说：“奶粉冲好了，赶紧喂吧。”这时候，妻子可能会找借口埋怨那么一两句，发发心中的怒气：“奶粉这么烫，能赶紧喂吗？没心没肺的，冷热都不知道，奶粉都冲不好，除了脾气大，还能干什么产’对妻子的话，丈夫大可不必计较，因为这些话纯粹是平衡心理的需要，是非正式的象征性的外交谴责用语。
　　“家庭迂回术”当然不是“圈套”，作用在于缓冲吵架的惯性，维护夫妻双方的面于，还会给小日子增添些情趣和味道，对于加深夫妻感情大有益处。
　　3．多兜圈子，少碰钉子
　　某些以鱼类为生的鸟类，其嘴的形状，直直的，上下两部分都又长又宽阔。吞吃食物时，有的常常把捕到的鱼儿往空中一抛，让那条鱼头朝下尾朝上落下来，然后一口接住咽了下去，这样的吃法可以使鱼在通过咽喉时，鱼翅的骨头由前向后倒，不会卡在喉咙里。
　　为人处世，求人办事也一样会碰到各种“刺儿”，这个时候便不能“直肠子”，而应该想办法兜个圈子，绕个弯子，避开钉子。这是做人应该具备的策略和手段。连没有相去羽毛的乌都会“把鱼倒过来吃”，聪明人怎能赤膊上阵，硬碰钉子，让“刺”卡在喉咙中呢？
　　有位编辑向著名学者钱钟书组稿，便是绕着围子，成功地“吃到了鱼”，还连说“根本没什么刺儿”。以下便是他的巧谋妙遇：
　　传播媒介把学界泰斗钱钟书先生的脾性渲染得那么乖僻。数年前，我曾参与编撰地方名人词典。同仁说，钱老的材料不易到手，写信发公函都音如黄鹤。主编也为此大伤脑筋。我想碰碰运气，鉴于前车之覆，特行事而不张扬。
　　我之所以决定试试，因为一，我对钱老的著作及学术成就有所了解。自1961年其力作（通感）问世以来，先生之名即铭刻脑际，追慕迄今。二，钱老的叔父钱孙卿先生是我所在学校的前任老校长。凭此两条，我建立起信心。自度籍籍无名，故投石问路，先迁而回之。
　　钱老伉俪情趣高雅，每常调侃，幽默诙谐，相与为乐。杨绿女主经呼夫君钱老为“黑犬才子”。此系钱老之字“默存”分拆而成的离合体字谜。于是我不揣冒昧为他们姓名编了两条灯谜。“文化著作”射“钱钟书”；“柳絮飞来片片红”射“杨终”。信中先呈上拙作，然后陈述其叔父举学之业绩。很快收到回信，喜不自胜。内附联名贺卡，蓝底金字，庄重雅致。特别是钱老签名的明信片，三字会写，神旺气足，独具风采。天性率真如此！钱老并不像传言所述那么古怪。
　　既得陇，又望蜀。于是又发函委述父老乡亲对他们眷恋之情，杨举其母校因“首编”未见钱老条目愤有烦言，愤而拒购（辞典）；再述地方史籍龙套频频出场，主角不亮相，戏唱不成之态势，等等。希望他们惠赐一手资料。不久又得复函：“来函敬悉。我们对国内外名人传记请求供给材料，一概敬谢，偶有关于我们的条目，都出于他们自编。米便为你破例。”好事多磨，果然吃了闭门羹。
　　设身处地想想，若来者不拒，频繁应酬，对其将是灾难。老人自有他们厘定的处世原则，一以贯之。倘畸轻畸重，必然造成精神上的两难折磨。故乡情虽深，也未可贸然破“法”。初看山重水复疑无路，细思既然全般供给材料不成，何妨另辟蹊径。“自编”草稿，呈其覆核，不是同样可以完成组稿任务吗。柳暗花明又一村。于是将有关钱老的传记材料，革成小传，另附若干疑题，一并发函请教。在忐忑不安中接读复函：“遵命将来稿删补一下，奉还。”对小传中的名号大都删除，批曰：“不合体例。”又订正了兰田（蓝田）之批误。大喜过望！至此组稿任务完事大吉。同仁无不额手相庆。对钱老先生抱“不怒而威”之成见，然“即之也温”，年过有期，犹不失赤子之心，何乖僻之有！
　　由上述事例可见，对于令人敬畏的对方，最好先提出请求之前，兜个圈子，提及他的兴趣或近况，使对方觉得“这人好像很了解我”而加深他的印象。
　　另有位编辑向一位名作家邀稿。那位作家一向以难于对付著称，所以这位编辑在去他家之前，感到既紧张又胆怯。
　　开始并不成功，因为不论作家说什么话，这位编辑都说“是，是。”或者“可能是这样的。”无法开口说明要求他写稿的事。他只好准备改天再来向他说明这件事，今天随便聊聊天就结束这次拜访。
　　突然间他脑中闪过一本杂志刊载有关这位作家近况的文章，于是就对作家说：“先生，听说你有篇作品被译成英文在美国出版了，是吗？”作家猛然倾身过来说道：“是的。”“先生，你那种独特的文体，用英语不知道能不能完全表达出来？”“我也正担心这点。”他们滔滔不绝地说着，气氛也逐渐变为轻松，最后作家竟答应为编辑写稿子。
　　这位不轻易应允的作家，为什么会为了编辑一席话，而改变了原来的态度呢？因为他认为这位编辑并不只是来要求他写稿，而且又读过他的文章，对他的事情十分了解，所以不能随便地应付。让对方以为自己对他的事非常清楚，就能像那位编辑一样，在心理上占优势。
　　一般人要和名人或有头衔的人见面时，都会产生胆怯的心理。如果在气势被压倒的情况下，不太敢开口说明要求的事，如此一来双方都很尴尬。这时不论多小的事情没有关系，首先要谈起对方的兴趣、近况等，仿佛自己对他的事非常了解。我们可以说：“听说你最近戒烟了，是否真的？”“前几天我在电视上看到你。”这些好像没有什么重大意义的话，可以打开对方的心扉，将他拉进自己的话题中。

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第35计　谈判计

2009-12-04T03:10:00.001+08:00

——如何在冲突和争执中占上风

　　1．谈判是一场耐心的较量
　　激将法在施展过程中，往往是忍耐的较量，谁先失去耐心，谁便丧失冷静而败下阵去。
　　在洛克菲勒的轶事中，曾有一位不速之客突然闯入他的办公室，直奔他的写字台，并以拳头猛击台面，大发雷霆：“洛克菲勒，我恨你！我有绝对的理由恨你！”接着那暴客恣意谩骂他达几分钟之久。办公室所有的职员都感到无比气愤，以为洛克菲勒一定会拾起墨水瓶向他掷去，或是吩咐保安员将他赶出去。然而，出乎意料的是，洛克菲勒并没有这样做。他停下手中的活，和善地注视着这一位攻击者，那人愈暴躁，他就显得越和善！
　　那无理之徒被弄得莫名其妙，他渐渐平息下来。因为一个人发怒时，遭不到反击，他是坚持不了多久的。于是，他咽了一口气。他是准备好了来此与洛克菲勒作斗的，并想好了洛克菲勒要怎样回击他，他再用想好的话去反驳。但是，洛克菲勒就是不开口，所以他也不知如何是好了。
　　末了，他又在洛克菲勒的桌子上敲了几下，仍然得不到回响，只得索然无味地离去。洛克菲勒呢，就像根本没发生任何事一样，重新拿起笔，继续他的工作。
　　不理睬他人对自己的无礼攻击，便是给他的最严厉的迎头痛击。成功者每战必胜的原因，便是当对手急不可耐时，他们依然故我，显得相当冷静与沉着。
　　洛克菲勒用贬低来施激将法，挑衅者用激怒作为手段，可目的过于明显，忍功又不及对手，便只有败走的份了。
　　还有一例。葛力内在一次会议中对一项决议投了反对票。这个政党的领袖来到他的办公室，指责他是本党的叛徒，企图破坏该党组织。
　　葛力内正在写稿，见他送来时仍没抬头，好像不知道他就在身旁。来客见葛力内如此冷淡，更是火上加油，越发生气，于是对葛力内辱骂起来。可是，葛力内就是不予理睬，依旧默默地写着他的东西。
　　来客无可奈何，绕着葛力内的桌子兜了一圈，回到原位，又滔滔不绝地重说了一遍。虽然来客几番重复这套盛气凌人的指责，但葛力内始终没有停下手中的活。直到来客词穷怒息准备离去，葛力内才慢慢地停下手中的笔，抬起头来，轻轻地一笑，丢过去一个得意的眼色，说：“干吗那么着急走啊？回来尽情地发泄吧！”
　　打仗要挑对手，激将得选莽汉。找那些房高一丈，冷若冰雪的人去激将，说不定象拿破仑碰上梅特涅，周瑜对上孔明，会反道淤将，自讨无趣。
　　2．谈判之道，一唱一和
　　美国富翁霍华·休斯有一次为了大量采购飞机，与飞机制造商的代表进行谈判。休斯要求在条约上写明他所提出的34项要求，其中至三项要求是没有退让余地的，但这对谈判对手是保密的。对方不同意，双方各不相让，谈判中冲突激烈，硝烟四起，竟发展到把休斯赶出了谈判会场。
　　后来，休斯派了他的私人代表出来继续同对方谈判。他告诉代理人说，只要争取到34项中的那11项没有退让余地的条款就心满意足了。这位代理人经过了一番谈判之后，争取到其中包括休斯所说的那非得不可的11项在内的几项。
　　休斯惊奇地问这位代理人，怎样取得如此辉煌的胜利时，代理人回答说：“那简单得很，每当我同对方谈不到一块儿时，我就问对方：‘你到底是希望同我解决这个问题，还是要留着这个问题等待霍华·休斯同你解决？’结果，对方每次都接受了我的要求。”
　　显然，休斯的面孔及其私人代表的面孔分别看来并无奇异之处，合二为一则产生了奇特的妙用，这便是唱红白脸的奥妙所在。这种策略的做法是，先由白脸出场，他采取咄咄逼人的攻势，提出过分的要求，傲慢无礼，立场僵硬，让对方看了心烦，产生反感。然后，红脸出场，他以温文尔雅的态度、诚恳的表情、合情合理的谈吐对待对方，并巧妙地暗示，如果他不能与对方达成协议而使谈判陷入僵局，那么白脸先生还会再次出场。这番话会给对方心理上造成一种压力。在这种情况下，对方一方面会由于不愿与白脸继续打交道，另一方面会由于红脸的可亲态度而同红脸达成协议。
　　商业谈判中的白脸可以以各种不同的面目或形式出现，他们可能是人，也可能是某件事情，可能是真的，也可能是假的。估价的人、律师、董事会等都可能会扮演很称职的坏人。政策、原则、各种各样的程序也可以扮演坏人。例如，“我很同情你们，我也愿意考虑你们的立场，可是董事会是不会同意我这么做的。”“我很愿意在这一点上同意你们的观点，可是政策不允许我做出。
　　不要以为对人笑脸相迎，给人面子，一团和气，就能赢得谈判。一味地唱红脸，会使人觉得你有求于他，有巴结之嫌。越是这样，对方越会强硬、傲慢，在谈判中占尽上风。在必要的时候，有必要给对方施加点颜色，用一些白脸手段刺激一下对方。当然，所谓刺激，并不是激怒或伤害对方，而是为了引起对方对某种事实的注意，更加重视自己，同时也提醒对方不要过分抬高自己的价码。
　　刺激对方的方法是多种多样的，但作用和效应都在于能够引起对方的忧虑不安。在商务谈判中，许多场外行动都可能引起双方的注意力，直接影响谈判桌上的形势，对商谈者起到刺激作用。例如：在商谈期间，还在继续和另外的商家接洽；在谈判过程中，突然有其他客商找上门来，暂时中断了正在进行的会谈，抱怨商谈时间拖得太久，自己的日程活动安排得很紧；直接和其他客商交换资料，等等，这些是双方都非常敏感的举动，可以暗示给对方很多东西，使对方有紧迫感。
　　当然，这种场外刺激的方法不能乱用，因它们很具冒险性，容易伤害对方的感情和诚意。另一方面，切忌小题大作，故作声势，结果“假”客商赶走了真正的合作者，鸡飞蛋打一场空。所以，刺激对方必须巧妙，至少要表现自己的诚心诚意，也就是说要告诉对方：‘’我并不是嫁不出去的女儿，而是确实中甚于你，就看你领情不领情了。”这样的刺激才会促进双方的理解与合作。
　　在商务交际中，刺激对方的途径并不限于言语，一些事实会更有说服力。但是，如果你想继续合作的话，同样的道理，应该通过一些环节和细节进行暗示，不要过分伤害对方，例如，如果在价格上争执不下，你可以拿出新设计来要求对方，或者对原来订的货物提出意见，说明双方都要面对现实，才能有好的合作前景。
　　唱白脸的一个变种是澳双簧。双安策略能使谈判人员从骑虎难下的状态中得到解脱，在谈判中我们常常可以听到一方谈判人员互相之间进行这样的对话：“老李，你今天上午怎么那么别扭？我本来想我们应该可以同意……”“我认为他们有点道理。如果我们同意……”在这里，同一方的谈判人员表面上好像采取了对方的立场，并向同伴建议做出让步。可是这种情况多半是在表演双簧：事先决定让一个人采取强硬态度，到了适当的时候，再由同伴出面提出折衷方案；可是那位强硬分子却硬是作出一种姿态，表示老大的不愿意。最后，在同伴的反复劝说下，才勉强同意。当然，对方得到了这个好不容易才到手的让步后，自然会对那个好人做出相应的回报。
　　在商业谈判中，还可以把双簧表演倒过来做。例如，你可以在不太重要的问题上先做一些让步。然后，在关系重大问题上你的同伴出面讲话了。他会对你说：“你今天上午表演得很慷慨，但在这一点上，你不能再作让步了。我们已经让得太多了。”这时候，你把脸转向对方，为难地说：“我现在已经无能为力了，一切都只好由你们决定了。”
　　从我们的描述中看起来，这种双簧表演似乎是很明显的，骗不过一个有经验的谈判者手。但是在长时间紧张谈判的压力下，识破这种策略也是不容易的。特别是唱双簧的人配合默契，表演自然的情况下，当然，对方也有可能会起疑心，但他不能完全肯定那是表演。他可能会想：“他们的这些话也许是真的，我可以趁这个机会想办法分化他们。”
　　3，点一点对手的穴道
　　任何一个谈判者，不仅应该清醒地意识到在议判中自己究竟要得到什么，而且还要明确自己究竟能够给对方什么。因为谈判是彼此利益、需要的交换。自己的要求自己最清楚，而对方的要求则难以把握。因此，就一场谈判来讲，最重要的或许就是发现对手的需要，有的时候甚至是要以有意识的行动创造对手的需要。有一个讨债专业户，一次受雇去追讨一家企业所欠的贷款，他从那家工厂门卫口中知道了该厂厂长另有新欢。他就到厂长家中与其妻子闲聊，掌握了该厂长偷税、行贿等不法私情。然后，他再去找厂长，以此要扶对方，他如愿地追缴到了欠款，也拿到了事先约定的佣金。他的前任没有成功，因为他们只有自身的需要而没有可能满足对方的需要。简单地说，对手不怕他。他则以其狡诈的手段（这属于谈判谋略的范畴）发现或者说创造了对手的需要，于是形成了交换的可能和必要。这就是谈判中的“空手道”的秘密。
　　在谈判中要能随机应变，抓住对方的弱点给予打击，有气功中点穴手段的奇妙效果。有些弱点是事先已经被我方掌握的，而有些弱点则是在对招之中对方暴露出来的，我方要随时发现把柄。两雄争辩，是双方理与气的较量，理是气的内核，气是理的锋芒，理直就气壮，理曲则气馁；但在一定条件下，气盛也能使理壮三分。出色的谈判家常常着意寻找对手的有关弱点，狠狠一台，譬如釜底抽薪，使对方的锐气顷刻消释，束手就范。所谓有关的弱点，是指对手论点上的错误、论据上的缺失、论证上的偏颇或其本身性格、行为、感情上的各种局限。诸葛亮舌战群儒的故事，是很值得欲施把柄的谈判人员研习的。
　　诸葛亮初到江东，作为弱国的使者，而且独自一人，看上去势单力孤。江东的那些怕硬欺软的谋士们，倚仗着坐在家中，人多势众，一个个盛气凌人。诸葛亮决心先打掉他们的气焰，所以出手凌厉，制人要害，像张昭这样的江东首席谋士，凭他的嚣张气势，也不过勉强与诸葛亮周旋了三个回合。他突出的弱点是主张降曹，投降是既无能又无耻的表现。诸葛亮瞅准这一点，在历数刘备一方怎样仁义爱民、艰苦抗击曹操之后，话锋一转：“盖国家大计，社稷安危，是有主谋。非比夸辩之徒，应誉欺人；坐议交谈，无人可及，临机应变，百无一能。——诚为天下笑耳！”这样就一下子点到了张昭的痛处，使他再也不能开口。
　　张昭以下的虞翻、步鹰、萍踪、陆绩、严峻、程德枢之流，都是上来一个回合就翻身落马的。如薛练与陆绩出于贬低刘备，拾高了曹操的身份，这就犯了当时士大夫阶层中的舆论大忌。诸葛亮一把抓住这点，斥责他们一个是“无父无君”，一个是“小儿之见”，说得两个人“满面羞衡”，先后“语塞”。严峻与程德枢完全是迂腐儒生，一个问诸葛亮“适为儒者所笑”，诸葛亮尖锐地指出：“寻章摘句，世之腐儒也，何能兴邦立事”“小人之德……笔下虽有千言，胸中实无一策。”甚至屈身变节，更为可悲。准确有力地击中对方的弱点，使对方垂头丧气，理屈词穷。
　　在唇枪舌剑中，对手总有说漏嘴的时候，这正是穷追猛打的好机会。这种办法用以对付傲气十足的对手较易奏效，因为做者一丢丑便像斗败的公鸡一样，会会头丧气，沮丧不已。因此傲者比谦虚的人更容易打败。
　　英国驻日公使巴克斯是个傲气十足的人，他在同日本外务大臣寺岛宗常和陆军大臣西乡南州打交道时，常常表现出不屑一顾的神态，还不时地嘲讽两人。但是每当他碰到棘手的事情时，总喜欢说“等我和法国公使谈了之后再回答吧！”寺岛宗常和西乡南州商量决定抓住这句话攻击一下巴克斯这种做气十足的行为。一天，西乡南州故意向巴克斯：“我很冒昧地问你一件事，英国到底是不是法国的属国呢？”
　　巴克斯听后又挺起胸膛傲慢无礼地回答说：“你这种说法太荒唐了。如果你是日本陆军大臣的话，那么完全应该知道英国不是法国的属国，英国是世界最强大的立宪君主国，甚至也不能和德意志共和国相提并论！”
　　西乡南州冷静地说：“我以前也认为英国是个强大的独立国，现在我却不这样认为了。”
　　巴克斯愤怒地质问道：“为什么？”
　　西乡南州从容地微笑着说：“其实也没有什么特别的事，只是因为每当我们代表政府和你谈论到国际上的问题时，你总是说等你和法国公使讨论后再回答。如果英国是个独立国的话，那么为啥要看法国的脸色行事呢？这么看来，英国不是法国的附属国又是什么呢？”
　　傲气十足的巴克斯被问得哑口无言。从此后他们互相讨论问题时，巴克斯再也不敢做气十足了。
　　西乡南州抓住巴克斯语言上的弱点展开攻势取得令人满意的效果。毫无疑义，任何人都不可能是十全十美的，难免有自己的弱点，而傲气者而一旦被别人抓住弱点进行攻击，也就瓦解了其傲气的资本。
　　4．退一步，进两步
　　有时候谈判中的一方，不太敢用退出来要挟对方，生怕谈崩了弄得鸡飞蛋打。所以，谈判老手都会不择手段地掌握对手的真正意图，摸清了底牌，便掌握了谈判的主动权。这时再以什么方式取胜，已是技术问题了。以退要挟达到进的目的，便是常用的一种。
　　巴拿马运河最早不是由美国开凿。19世纪末，一家法国公司跟哥伦比亚签订了合同，打算在哥伦比亚的巴拿马省境内开一条连通大西洋和太平洋的运河。主持运河工程的总工程师就是因开凿苏伊士运河而闻名世界的法国人雷赛布，他自以为这一工程不在话下，然而巴拿马环境与苏伊土有很大的不同，工程进度很慢，资金开始短缺，于是公司陷入了窘境。
　　美国早在1880年就想开一条连贯两大洋的运河。由于法国先下手与哥伦比亚签订了条约，美国十分懊悔。
　　在这种形势下，法国公司的代理人布里略访问美国，向美国政府兜售巴拿马运河公司，要价一亿美元。美国早已对运河公司垂涎三尺，知道法国拟出售公司更是欣喜若狂。然而，美国却故作姿态，罗斯福指使美国海峡运河委员会提出报告，证明在尼加拉瓜开运河省钱。报告指出，在尼加拉瓜开运河的全部费用不到 2亿美元。在巴拿马运河的直接费用虽然只有1亿多，但另外要付出一笔收买法国公司的费用，这样，开巴拿马运河的全部支出将达2亿5千多万美元。
　　布里略看到这个报告后大吃一惊。如果美国不开巴拿马运河，法国不是一分钱也收不回了吗？于是他马上游说，表明法国公司愿意削价，只要4000万美元就行了。通过这一方法，美国就少花了800万美元。
　　罗斯福又用同一计策来压哥伦比亚政府。他指使国会通过一个法案，规定美国如果能在适当时期内同哥伦比亚政府达成协议，将选择巴拿马开运河，否则，美国将选择尼加拉瓜。
　　这样一来，哥伦比亚也坐不住了，驻华盛顿大使马上找美国国务卿海约翰协商，签订了一项卖国条约，同意以100万美元的代价长期租给美国一条两岸各宽3公里的运河区，美国每年另外付租金10万元。
　　“欲进先退”，罗斯福成功地运用了这种谋略，最后，美国只用了很少的代价，就攫取了巴拿马运河的开凿和使用权。
　　可是在许多情况下，对方的底牌很难摸清楚，可以用分析和推断来把把对方的脉。如果对手实在是打持久战，那么冒点风险以退出恐吓对方，也值得一试。也许他比你更不愿意谈判破裂，真是如此，你即使表示退出也仍然有澳旅的余地。
　　1920年，新生的苏维埃俄国还处于国际帝国主义的包围和封锁中。为了冲破封锁包围，俄共非常希望与西方国家发展经济贸易关系。当时的意大利政府出于经济原因，在国内工业界的压力下也愿意同苏俄进行经贸联系。意大利外交大臣卡洛·斯弗茨几次在报纸上发表声明，表示他的政府打算恢复同苏俄的贸易关系并准备在罗马接待苏俄经济代表团。俄共迅速地抓住这一机会，宣布组成以苏俄早期杰出的外交家沃罗夫斯基为首的经济代表团赴罗马。
　　但是，这时意大利国内的政治形势急剧变化，反共反苏的法西斯势力迅速抬头，他们在全国各地大搞暴力活动，猖狂反对共产党人。俄国经济代表团成员也经常受到骚扰、跟踪、搜查，俄国派来的外交信使也遭到扣押。在压力下，意大利执政的乔利蒂政府不得不拒绝承认俄国经济代表团的外交地位，但又急于同俄国签订贸易协定，缓解国内实业界呼声，并加强自己在最近的议会选举后变得十分不稳的地位，争取更多议员的支持和拥护。1921年5月，乔利蒂政府向逗留在罗马的俄国经济代表团建议立即签订贸易协定。
　　苏俄政府认真深入地分析了意大利政府的心态，决定采用以退为进的策略。这下，意大利政府慌了神。三天之后，外交大臣斯弗茨再次邀见沃罗夫斯基，这次他格外客气。
　　又过了三天，沃罗夫斯基收到了意大利政府的公函。公函中说：“我们两国在经济上的接近是令人感兴趣的…我们乐于自今日起给予你们希望得到的外交特权。”
　　需求常常是双向的，你有求于对方，对方也有求于你。洞悉了这一点后，就应该利用对手这种弱势，在谈判中采取以退为进的方略，要挟对手，迫使对手就范，做出妥协和让步。
　　从以上的两个例子可以看出，对对方意图的了解至关重要。但有一点也很清楚，无论是美国人还是苏联人都不愿谈判破裂，他们只是采取要挟的策略达到自己的目的。所以，如果在谈判中你的对手要挟你时切莫上当，或者你知道了对方怕你撤出谈判时，你也可以装着马上就停止谈判的样子，让对方接受对你有利的条件。这其实也是谈判双方信息、信心和意志力的综合较量。

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