Free Market Theory
Adam Smith, father of modern economic theory, posited that the market will dictate supply and demand, and that we as individuals have little say in controlling it. In any free market, there is a natural order to supply and demand that moves the economy either forward or backward, but causes organic change over time one way or the other. In its current state, the neighborhood of Coconut Grove, once a thriving entertainment area, has seen better days. There are a number of easy to identify factors for this current ebb: more competition from other areas (South Miami, Brickell, Design District, Midtown come to mind), lack of compelling fare (the food is better in other areas), outdated infrastructure, etc etc.

Compelling Fare?
So lets look at the one factor that can be fixed easily by free markets: compelling fare. There are dozens of empty retail and restaurant locations sprinkled throughout the grove. Why is that? Well many were never smartly designed, or were designed for a different era (1990s). But the reality is that many of the landlords are saddled with cost-prohibitive mortgages on the properties they purchased during the height of the boom. This over-priced mortgage is then passed through to the tenants who are charged rents that are unrealistic considering today’s softer real estate market. Realistically very few businesses have the margins required to support the prices being asked of by the landlords in the neighborhood. Coupled with the decreased traffic (pedestrian, not vehicle traffic- as is cited on the CocoWalk owner’s site), its not surprising that these businesses are failing. If the rents were low enough to support small businesses, then these businesses would come to the area.

Bringing people in
One of the areas in which the grove does have an ability to fix its situation is in the branding, marketing, and promotion of the neighborhood. This is an area tasked to the BID, Chamber, and Village Councils. These groups need to take action before all their members (the businesses and the individuals) leave town and they are left holding the bag so to speak. As is, there is no cohesive image that the village is trying to portray, no unified marketing, nothing. Even the billboards that encircle the neighborhood point to businesses in neighboring cities such as Coral Gables.

and then keeping them.
I am stopped at least three times per week while walking my dog around the neighborhood by lost tourists looking for something. I happily give them directions, but realistically there should be better signage, maps, and other simple quick wins to keep and move people around the village. A visitor to CocoWalk would never know how to find Lokal, and its delicious burgers even though they are merely a block away. A visitor to Greenstreet cafe wouldn’t be able to find the movie theater despite it being a couple blocks away as well. Some basic urban planning needs to be done to manage the pedestrian flow.

Finding the champions
Ultimately the first step is to find who will be the champions for the grove. I’ve done my part in getting at least a dozen people to move to the neighborhood, but I don’t have any skin in the game. The champions need to be the property owners, those who stand to lose the most if/when the neighborhood crumbles. Clearly the groups running things now don’t seem to understand the cause/effect relationship of inaction. So who will we task to whip the players into shape? Who will coach the grove into relevance in the 21st century?

For the last 6 months I’ve been working out at EliteU fitness in Miami, a crossfit style gym which specializes in so called unconventional functional workouts. This isn’t a large gym, nor is it a cheap gym, however it is reflective of the challenges that many non-commodity businesses face these days. During the 6 months I’ve been a member of Elite U,  I’ve seen many of the same faces over and over, but a number have come and gone as well. So what makes the core group stay? What makes the others disappear? Social bonds.

The most fervent, regular members of the gym are the ones who’ve established social bonds with other members of the gym. They have added a layer of peer support and motivation, as well as a layer of entertainment (seeing your friends is fun) to their workouts. By establishing these bonds, the core groups of members have reinforced their connection to each other as well as the business. No longer are you going just for a workout, but because your friends expect to see you there, and you are striving to achieve a shared goal or milestone with your colleagues. Those who disappear after a few months have their reasons (injury, financial, or lose interest), but from my casual observations are usually the ones who did not establish relationships with their peers at the gym.

So as a business owner, how does this apply to you? How can you foster these bonds? Well in the case of a gym, you need to understand that the common social object for your members is a shared fitness goal, and lifestyle improvement. Large gyms, of which I’ve been a member of several in the past, do not emphasize relationships between customers, they make their money on you NOT showing up, and just paying the $30/month ad-infinitum. A premium, non-commodity offering can’t rely on people paying out a triple digit monthly fee without using it.

Maybe you aren’t a gym, but these concepts apply to everything from a local watering hole (bar), to a salon, to sporting good stores, to a clothing boutique. Any business where there is an object of desire that can inspire customers to discuss and connect over can foster a community. A smart business owner will provide their community with the tools necessary to interact with each other (think newsletters, bulletin boards, interactive websites like blogs) at little or no cost.

What are you doing to foster your customer community?

p.s.: see how this wasn’t about social media per se

I’m going to be outlining on here what schools I’m applying to, why I’m looking to get an MBA, and probably sharing my application essays on here as well.

So the big question is “Why are you getting an MBA Brian?”
Well I’ve thought long and hard about this, and even though for years I was seemingly anti-MBA, I really wasn’t anti-MBA. I was anti-any-MBA. I wholeheartedly believe the value of certain MBAs far outweighs that of the average MBA. So for me, a handful of schools make a lot of sense to me, and most schools would be a waste of my time and money. This however doesn’t answer the question of why.

The decision to get an MBA is based on the following thought process. On my own I can run my own company, build something from the ground up with no meaningful amounts of funding, and live a comfortable life. I however am looking at this from a long-term perspective. I want to be able to make a large impact on the world, so whatever I do next has to be of a much larger scale. To accomplish that on my own is going to be incredibly challenging, however to accomplish this with the assistance of the MBA from these top-tier schools, would make it much more attainable.

I was asked at an HBS event recently what I wanted to do with my MBA, and I told them that my next job doesn’t exist yet.

So every year I put my nostradamus hat on and make bets as to what will happen in the upcoming year. I’m like 65% correct over the last 5 years, I should be wagering money on this. So here are my bets for 2012

1. Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa.
   Price will be in the $5B range. Dorsey will make sure it remains network agnostic (i.e. keeps accepting cards from the competitors).
2. Facebook will IPO and break the recent tech IPO slump
   This makes sense because Facebook actually makes money, whereas sites like groupon and zynga aren’t anywhere near as profitable as they would have previously liked us to believe.
3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon
   I suspect LivingSocial’s more cautious approach to this market has left them in a much better financial situation relative to cash flow than Groupon, so they will use this to pull ahead. I do see the daily deal market stagnating though. So any lead changes will be due to non-daily-deal innovations they pull out of their hat. Think instant deals, and providing marketing services outside of deals to these small businesses they have.
4. RIM sells to Microsoft for less than $5B
   Seeing an opportunity to instantly force-upgrade everyone on blackberry to Windows Phone 8 with built in MSN Messenger, Microsoft buys the pieces of RIM, and leverages their connections in the enterprise world to push Outlook and Exchange. I see this as another skype like deal, since they can use their foreign cash assets to buy RIM (seeing as RIM is Canadian).
5. Amazon continues to grow its hardware business
   I see them releasing a kindle phone using android, and a larger Fire DX model. I expect them to ship 10-15M kindle devices in 2012. 20% of them being Fire models (android with color screens etc).
6. Amazon will still survive despite states imposing sales taxes
   The sales tax savings will be gone to most consumers, but with Amazon pushing harder on Prime services, the convenience and lower prices will still be enough to shift consumers away from Big Box retail. Their growth will be slower than in previous years though.
7. Mobile commerce explodes in US.
   Visa is making a HEAVY push for their retailers to upgrade to NFC equipped point of sale machines. Now the only component left is for the phone makers to integrate NFC into their devices en masse. This won’t happen until LATE 2012, expect it in the iPhone 5. However I do see tie ins with location + mobile + payments converging. Think paying for your meal by seeing the bill on your phone at your table, and hitting checkout. Question is who will be the network for that transaction or who will be the gateway. I could see Apple and Google fighting this one out. I don’t see NFC as the end solution, more the bridge solution in this. I do see the traditional point of sale device changing substantially (why do we still need cash registers? Apple retails have 1 per store yet sell on the floor more).
8. Salesforce buys a number of social media integration companies
   My guess is Hootsuite will be bought by salesforce in the $30-40M range. I could also see them buying Klout in the $10-15M range.
9. Facebook hits 1 billion users
   This number is less important than the active users, which will be in the 500M daily, and 500M on mobile (up from 350M mobile users now). The mobile is the key number, as that is where their growth will be in the next year or two. As of Dec 31, they were saying they had 800M users, with 50% active every day. No one else has the same reach on Mobile. 1 in 8 mobile phones in the world is accessing Facebook in some fashion at some point during the month. This is even more impressive when you consider the lack of reliable mobile data connectivity in much of the world. These are not all smart phones either, lots are simple feature phones.
10. The world will not end in 2012.
    If the Mayans could predict the end of the world, how come they couldn’t predict the end of their own civilization? So if you truly believe the world is going to end, please put me in your will. I will happily spend your money after you’ve commited suicide or scared yourself to death in December.

So what do you think will happen in 2012?

1. Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011.
So I was a bit off on this. I was correct in slower growth, but they hit the 650M user mark in the 2nd quarter and were on their way past 750M mark by the 4th quarter. They however have been a bit more quiet this year when it comes to announcing user engagement figures.

2. WordPress ecosystem grows up
Totally wish this had really taken off, but still hasn’t. Things missing are a centralized app store, better monetization tools from Automattic, and better promotional tools for companies to monetize their apps/services. The market did grow though, there were a number of companies in the market place making 7 figures gross though. Sadly Infinimedia was not one of these (though our WordPress products are profitable, and we have more planned for 2012).

3. The first Youtube millionaire emerges
So this one is hard to track, but if you count Rebecca Black as a millionaire, from selling her tracks on itunes, and performing, then theoretically she is a YT millionaire, though I was hoping from purely YT generated cash. So I suspect there are a few who are close, who hit 500M views this year on their videos, but again, impossible to say.

4. Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales.
Apple hasn’t released any conclusive data about this, and if they have, its buried in a line item somewhere in their annual report. I think the mac app store most likely DID do a $1b, but the volumes are way lower than iOS app store, and app price points are higher.

5. Apple gives away Lion for free or Less than $30
So they sold it for $29, so I hit the nail on the head here.

6. Twitter hits 200M users
I believe the official number is 250M users, but something along the lines of 80M Active. Another good bet by me.

7. Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for
So Fox/News Corp sold Myspace for something along the lines of $35M if I recall correctly to Specific Media. This happened end of June. Since then, nothing has changed on Myspace, it is still a sinking ship. So I got this one right.

8.Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.

So Groupon IPOd this year, hit close to $4.5B in gross sales, and did buy a few companies, though not as many as I would have liked. They didn’t buy as many companies as I expected them to, as they were short on cash due to their absurdly high burn rate. 
I’d say this was right.

9. Facebook credits expand beyond facebook

So aside from being able to buy Facebook credits in Target and CVS, you really can’t use them outside of Facebook. So I’d say this was wrong. I truly expected them to try to be the wallet of the social world.

10. Google reboots android marketplace.

This they definitely did. So did Amazon by introducing their own app store. So another hit for me.

Final tally, depends on how you count some of these, but I’d say I’m close to 60% correct on these.

What do you think will happen in 2012?

So what have I learned in 4 months of sticking to the diet at least 85% of the time? Quite a bit actually. The plan outlined in the 4HB appealed to the scientist in me, as it outlined WHY your body did certain things and reacted in certain ways to what we’re consuming. I wrote a bit about the diet before, so I won’t rehash it all, merely use this as a progress report of sorts.

Several things I noticed during the last few months:

• Consuming 40Gm of protein in the morning is easier with protein shake included in meal (low-carb option I liked Progenex Max Muscle or Recovery – Belgian chocolate)
• Pre-assembling meals for rapid cooking is essential for maintaining (I’ll outline this in a future post) dietary restrictions
• Lean turkey/deli meat make excellent in-between meal snacks
• Body is much more efficient at processing large quantities of protein than it is at handling moderate amounts of carbohydrates, especially sugars.
• Snap-back ability increases the longer you are on this diet, I can binge a few days, gain 5lbs, and then drop it in 2 days after I go back on the diet.

After 4 months, here are my before and after stats, as these are the best way to measure progress:

• Overall Weight: 191lbs -> 170lbs (-21lbs -11%)
• Pants: 33Waist ->31 waist (-2 inches)
• Chest: 42”->40”
• Neck: 17.5 -> 16.75
• Biceps: 13” -> 14”
• Forearms: 11” -> 11.5”
• Waist at bellybutton: 36”->32”
• Fat loss substantial
• Triglyceride levels: 400 -> 140
• Cholesterol: 260-> 220

From an exercise standpoint I was doing the following:
3-4x/week Cross training at EliteU Fitness (45min avg workout high intensity workouts)
1-2x/week Soccer 11v11 90minutes
1-2x/week 2-3mile run (recently higher rate of running, less soccer)

Supplements I’ve tried and my experience with them:
Fish Oil: This I think does more for weight loss than the other supplements I’ve tried.
Green Tea Extract: More consistent energy throughout day, no noticeable effect on weight loss
Progenex Recovery Protein Powder: Definite recommend when consumed immediately after workout, pricey, but bag lasts long time (~2 months for me)
Next will be trying the PAGG stack.

Performance records
1Mile run: 9:30 (august) -> 8:25 (crossfit test – Nov)
5k run: 32:20 (may) -> 29:15 (Nov)
10k run: 1:13 (may) -> 1:02 (Nov)
Deadlift: 250lbs -> 325lbs
20 tire flips: 2:40 -> 1:35

So that’s it for now. If you have questions, let me know.

Here are my quick and dirty tips if you’re running something shorter than a Spartan Race Super Spartan distance (8Miles). If you crossfit, then you’re way ahead and can skip this.

Ok here we go:
Remember this is about having fun.
Running 5 miles non-stop won’t help that much, but running intervals WILL
Remember to train your core before you go into the race, as it will test your entire body
When designing your costume, try to avoid things that will impede your movement (capes can get caught on things)
Quick workout plan:
Run 5 minutes
Do 25 pushups
Run 5 minutes
Do 25 situps
Run 5 minutes
Do pullups (if you have access to them, if not, monkey bars, if none, go back to pushups)
repeat the first steps until you hit 3.5 miles or 35 minutes.

Now if you stick to this, and alternate it between running a 5k via something like Couch to 5k program, you should be golden when it comes to a short distance race like Warrior Dash. Grab water when its offered, and consider drinking 2 cups, not one, some courses are notoriously stingy on water (cough spartan race cough).

Try to vary your workouts for longer runs. If you’ve got a medecine ball or a big rock (20lb), try adding in some full body standups to the mix on the workout plan.

In case you’re wondering, I’ve competed in: Warrior Dash, Spartan Race, Columbia Muddy Buddy, Merrell Down n Dirty, and several other mud runs.

During its peak, around the early 00s or late 90s, Coconut Grove was a bustling hub of entertainment and revelry for Miami. It had few areas of competition, the housing boom hadn’t driven tens of thousands of condos to be built in nearby Brickell & Downtown yet, and areas like South Miami and Midtown were still largely deserted from an entertainment standpoint. It really only had one area competing with it: South Beach. So what did the powers that be in the Grove do? Nothing, they rested on their laurels and ignored the increasing competition and changing landscape, and let many of their iconic attractions whither away (the playhouse being a prime example). Additionally they pushed for alcohol to be sold for fewer hours (3AM is last call, vs 5am citywide, and no last call in some cases).

As a result of the infighting and powers that be trying to mold Coconut Grove to their own taste, instead of realizing its beauty all along lay in its laissez faire attitude, Coconut Grove is filled with empty storefronts and failing restaurants. Those who have succeeded are those that understand the inherent culture, and don’t try to change it; they are the ones who embraced the NUT in coconut.

So how can this neighborhood revive itself? Free parking. Live Music. Revive the playhouse, or tear it down and build a new venue that can work for music, theater, and other performances. Build a community center for the locals to share. Host more events that draw people in (think concerts, not antique shows). Embrace change, and foster it (i.e. make it easy for new businesses to get construction permits expedited). Teach new businesses how to market to their community (if we’re the only ones coming here, why not embrace us?). Turn the empty office and retail space into subsidized office space for small businesses.

Can this revival occur? Sure, if the village council, BID, and NET offices all get their acts together. The property owners who’ve had empty spaces for years need to get the message and lower their pricing as well.

Lots of these changes affect the city as a whole and county as well, these aren’t all Coconut Grove specific.

When I moved back to Miami after college, what I found in tech down here was startling. There was no sense of community in South Florida tech. It was all about who you were and what can you do for me today. Thus, the genesis for Refresh Miami was born. A place where the creative and tech community can connect and engage.

Over the years, the purpose of Refresh has evolved and the need we originally saw has been largely fulfilled. The number of smaller groups that have emerged from the audience at the tech events fills my heart with hope. These groups could have emerged on their own, but it wouldn’t have been as easy for the founders to meet and feel the vibe or energy of the community. What was originally meant to fill a void from a lack of community has managed to surpass that, and now enables the creation of new niche communities. Refresh has fulfilled its original goal of sparking the creative fires in our respective bellies, now it must find a new raison d’etre.

So what should Refresh 2.0 (for lack of a better moniker) be? My dream is to see Refresh help more people than it has in the past. The hundreds of jobs it has helped fill, the thousands of friendships that have emerged, the millions of dollars in economic windfall its brought to the region — they are the tip of the iceberg. Refresh needs to refresh itself. The new Refresh will be less about individual meetups and workshops organized by us, but rather it will be about fostering events you want to setup, new relationships, and new opportunities for the community.

In the coming year, my goal is to see anyone from a javascript enthusiast to a final cut aficionado to a ruby guru be able to find, connect, and engage with other like-minded individuals and groups throughout South Florida. Refresh will be there to help you connect with others, and share your knowledge, your passions, and your love for tech. I’d like to see Refresh find more people jobs this year than in the past 5 years combined.

The people in the community I’ve spoken with have all mentioned the need for action and forward movement in our community. If we want to create the community we want to live in, raise our kids in, work in, and have fun in, then we have to take action. We cannot expect others to fulfill our dreams for us.

I’m asking you, the designers, developers, marketers, artists, business guys, teachers, consultants, bloggers, etc to take it upon yourselves to stand up and engage the community. If we don’t all participate, then who are we to blame but ourselves when the community isn’t there?

Thank you all for the last five years, they’ve been incredible. Cheers to another five!

If you’d like to get more involved in shaping the future of the tech community in South Florida, please let me know.

* Worth reading: Foundations of a startup community

This is a picture of the well you all helped create in 2008 (where we raised $1681!) through the first charity:water birthday campaign I participated in. The well is located in the AARITO GONO VILLAGE in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. This well should provide clean water for many years to come for the this little village of 30.

The 2011 September Campaign. Our 5-year-anniversary video from charity: water on Vimeo.

This year I decided to do something a little differently. This year I am incentivizing you to donate even more. So if you give to this year’s campaign, you will receive discounted drinks at my party as well as a charity:water wristband. The wristbands normally retail for $5 each. So make your donation in advance (any amount you feel comfortable with) and I will have wristbands for you.

So please come join me and my friends this Friday at the Grove Spot from 9PM onwards for drinks and celebration all for a good cause.

Details are on the facebook page. Many thanks to Olav from the Grove Spot for helping us out with this offer.