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	<title>Brian Breslin's Blog</title>
	
	<link>http://brianbreslin.com</link>
	<description>Web Application Strategy</description>
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		<title>LatAm vs Miami: A startup ecosystem comparison</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/0ReSyFJuQ-M/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/latam-vs-miami-a-startup-ecosystem-comparison/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 17:19:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1182</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the purposes of this trip I’m on to Latin America was to learn from the communities down South and figure out how we can apply these lessons to the community in Miami. To say this trip has been &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/latam-vs-miami-a-startup-ecosystem-comparison/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the purposes of this trip I’m on to Latin America was to learn from the communities down South and figure out how we can apply these lessons to the community in Miami. To say this trip has been eye-opening is the understatement of the century. The people I have met, and the companies I have seen in Mexico and Brazil have blown my mind. </p>
<p>The common everyday obstacles that startups in LatAm face make our “issues” seem inconsequential or trivial by comparison.  The fact that entrepreneurs are starting companies in Mexico, Brazil, and other countries throughout the area despite the fact that everything costs more than it costs us, that they have government regulations through the wazoo, makes me envious. They may not have the resources we have from even an infrastructure or safety standpoint, yet they persevere, they push forward, and they chase the supposed American Dream harder than many of the entrepreneurs I’ve met in Miami.  In Miami we don’t have to deal with traffic so bad it takes you 2 hours to go 5 miles, or paying 52% tax on electronics (including servers and SaaS), unstable electricity, spotty broadband, and countless other hurdles that make life harder.  There is an inherent attitude of hustle in these communities throughout Latin America; if you have a problem, you figure out a solution.</p>
<p>Miami is spoiled by regional standards. Miami should be a beacon of light for companies targeting the Latin American markets and building companies throughout the Americas. We have easier access to capital, better employment laws (at will employment is a godsend to our companies, seriously), lower costs of living and operating (not even kidding, just look at Sao Paulo). So what is our excuse as a community for not building more impressive scalable companies that we can use as examples of the knowledge and skills available in Miami.</p>
<p>Take this as a call to action South Floridians! It is on you to stop expecting things to be handed to you and to rise up and build scalable businesses that can expose Miami as a leader in startups throughout the region.</p>
<p>Follow my videos and other blogging over at <a href="http://refreshmiami.com/posts/">RefreshMiami.com</a></p>
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		<title>Geeks On A Plane – Exploring Latin America Tech</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/XwonbytVPTw/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/geeks-on-a-plane-exploring-latin-america-tech/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2012 15:49:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Travel]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1178</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So I&#8217;ve been on the road representing RefreshMiami and the Miami tech community since Friday with the 500Startups Geeks On a plane trip. We&#8217;ve explored Mexico City so far, now we&#8217;re in Sao Paulo, and after this stop we&#8217;re heading &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/geeks-on-a-plane-exploring-latin-america-tech/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><iframe width="500" height="284" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Hg-6YITxxgk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>So I&#8217;ve been on the road representing <a href="http://refreshmiami.com">RefreshMiami</a> and the Miami tech community since Friday with the 500Startups Geeks On a plane trip. We&#8217;ve explored Mexico City so far, now we&#8217;re in Sao Paulo, and after this stop we&#8217;re heading to Buenos Aires.  In each of these cities we&#8217;re meeting with local entrepreneurs, local investors, and local developers. The Knight Foundation has graciously underwritten this trip in order for us to be able to bring back valuable insights into the local communities in each country. The hope is that we are able to share some of our experiences with them, and learn from their experiences so that we can improve the South Florida startup and tech communities.</p>
<p>For more information on our journey, follow along on the <a href="http://refreshmiami.com/posts/">RefreshMiami Blog</a>.</p>
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		<title>Does Miami need a tech ambassador?</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/V31yvPKooHg/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/does-miami-need-a-tech-ambassador/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 May 2012 18:36:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1176</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Something that has been on my mind lately has been that of whether or not the local tech community here in South Florida, and more specifically Miami, is in need of a spokesperson. Do we need a face for tech &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/does-miami-need-a-tech-ambassador/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Something that has been on my mind lately has been that of whether or not the local tech community here in South Florida, and more specifically Miami, is in need of a spokesperson. Do we need a face for tech in SFL? </p>
<p>Lacking any recognizable faces from successful companies here may be hampering us as there is no single person to identify the tech community with down here. California, New York, Boston, and Seattle have their “celebrity” startup founders or big tech CEOs acting as beacons and spokespeople for their communities, we unfortunately lack these assets. </p>
<p>So how do we solve this problem? Do we identify the leaders in each industry in tech in South Florida (healthcare, tourism, finance, etc) and push them to promote a common agenda? Do we find one person and arm him/her with a support team to coordinate our local efforts?</p>
<p>I believe we need a team, similar to the Beacon Council, that acts as ambassadors for tech. The role would be to bring in more companies to the area, promote the existing ones, and act on foreign trade efforts with the international markets interested in the region. This team would have to be funded by local companies, local government, and local foundations.  Action items would involve promoting local companies, getting press coverage, finding biz opportunities for member companies or local companies both locally and outside the area as well.</p>
<p>Do you think this is viable? Who do you think would be willing to back this? This is an open discussion. Any drawbacks to this?</p>
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		<title>Exploring the Medellin tech community</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/rpvyMfgz8Yg/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/exploring-the-medellin-tech-community/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 May 2012 13:38:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1172</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A few weeks back, I had the privilege of going down to Medellin, Colombia to meet with a number of people in the tech/hacker community down there. My overall impression was “wow, imagine what these ‘kids’ could do with more &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/exploring-the-medellin-tech-community/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/brbreslin/7141765713/" title="Botero in Medellin by brbreslin23, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7043/7141765713_03446da0a2_m.jpg" width="180" height="240" alt="Botero in Medellin" align="left" style="margin-right: 9px; margin-bottom: 9px;"></a> A few weeks back, I had the privilege of going down to Medellin, Colombia to meet with a number of people in the tech/hacker community down there. My overall impression was “wow, imagine what these ‘kids’ could do with more resources.”</p>
<p>All of the hackers I met work for foreign companies. ALL of them. Most of them work remotely too. Their english overall was much better than expected (compared to my experiences in Peru, and Argentina). These guys are industrious too; they see a problem (lack of employers locally) so they solved it by working for foreigners. A few work in enterprise for local companies, but the vast majority of the top developers are pulling in competitive salaries overseas.</p>
<p>Some very sharp developers are building cool things down there too. I met a guy whose team even submitted for YC Summer 2012, and this was his second time submitting for YC (different idea). Lots of guys there were self taught iOS or Android or Rails developers working in Medellin. </p>
<p>I see a lot of parallels though between the Medellin community and that of South Florida. First and foremost, there is talent, and its hiding out in an oft-ignored location. This talent is itching for social outlets to get together and talk shop. They feel that they lack opportunities to create their own companies and projects because of a lack of available financing.  There is also a dearth of space for these hackers to collaborate in (coworking). </p>
<p>So as a self-appointed unofficial ambassador to the tech community in South Florida, how can we help the bubbling communities like Medellin foment their efforts? What can we provide that we have that they need to get going? How can we help other communities in Latin America?</p>
<p>If you’re a community leader or motivated hacker in Latin America, please comment below or email me myname at gmail and we’ll get this conversation started.</p>
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		<title>Tech in South Florida update May 2012</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/RomNVYy2nRI/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/tech-in-south-florida-update-may-2012/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 May 2012 13:04:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1169</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’ve been rather quiet lately on this blog, and there are several good reasons for it. One of the main reasons is that we at Refresh Miami have been working on some bigger projects to benefit the greater good of &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/tech-in-south-florida-update-may-2012/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’ve been rather quiet lately on this blog, and there are several good reasons for it. One of the main reasons is that we at Refresh Miami have been working on some bigger projects to benefit the greater good of tech in South Florida.</p>
<p>Lately there has been a lot of talk and momentum about fostering tech and startups in Miami, from the government, to the various foundations, to the entrepreneurs and angels.  This is a welcome change from 2 years ago where you were basically on your own as far as entrepreneurship in Miami. Now it’s easy to see why everyone is coming out of the woodworks to support startups in Miami, they are a cheap political asset. Fostering startups is fostering job creation, and at a much lower cost than it would take to bring a Cisco or Boeing to Miami. </p>
<p>One of the most frequent topics that has come up in the discussion of tech in miami though has been the lack of accessibility to experienced entrepreneurs and to financing. These are topics we are touching upon, but it is my understanding several groups are working on each of these issues at the moment. </p>
<p>A key factor in Miami’s growth as a tech center is going to be based on the formation of clusters of innovation throughout our area. Someone told me the other day, Miami doesn’t have a talent problem, Miami has a geography problem. Due to the extensively dispersed nature of South Florida, it is hard to focus the growth of the community on any one neighborhood. </p>
<p>I can’t publicly share what we’re doing yet with Refresh, as I don’t want to jinx it, and we still have a number of I’s to dot and T’s to cross. However we are looking for corporate  sponsors to get involved, so if you are in a position to help, please reach out to us.</p>
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		<title>Building blocks of community</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/PgvSrfRS9lA/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/building-blocks-of-community/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2012 15:12:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1162</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently (the last few months), quite a bit of momentum has been building around the tech community down here in South Florida (mainly Miami). Different actors in the theater that is Miami have started to assume their roles and take &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/building-blocks-of-community/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently (the last few months), quite a bit of momentum has been building around the tech community down here in South Florida (mainly Miami). Different actors in the theater that is Miami have started to assume their roles and take part in the act that encompasses the renaissance of tech in Miami. Movement can be seen from the government, from the private investors, from the social groups, and even from the individual startups.</p>
<p><strong>The next Silicon Valley?</strong><br />
The question over and over keeps getting asked of what are the pieces or building blocks necessary to foster the creation of a solid tech community. How can we build the next San Francisco, or Boston, or New York. Well I think those are the wrong questions, because we really can’t replicate the pieces and perfect storm that has created Silicon Valley or other tech hubs. Miami needs to create its own unique identity, and base it on the strengths and weaknesses that it has. Miami cannot replicate Stanford, MIT, NYU, or any of the other prestigious schools; Miami cannot replicate the fact that HP, or Raytheon, or Wall St don’t exist down here. So the question is not can Miami become the next Silicon Valley, but rather can Miami be the next hub for innovation and entrepreneurship this country, and region needs?</p>
<p><strong>Planning the next hub</strong><br />
Many newcomers and old timers are asking how they can get involved in this planning. I tell them one simple way: show up. The discourse necessary to get things moving does not happen from the comfort of your home, it happens from the trenches, from the real world meetups that are already going on all around you. If you want to make a lasting impact you need to be in a position to let people put a face to your ideas. Online communities can coalesce without the need for physical meetups, but when you’ve got real money and real assets (like real estate) on the line, its impossible to make things happen purely via emails. The community leaders down here make every possible effort to include as many people as possible in the discussion, so if you’re passionate about building something down here, then make sure you show up.</p>
<p><strong>The components</strong><br />
Every startup ecosystem has components it needs in order to thrive. These components are, in no particular order:</p>
<ul>
<li>Schools</li>
<li>Space</li>
<li>Companies</li>
<li>Money</li>
<li>People</li>
</ul>
<p>So the question is, how do we involve as many people as possible, and still maintain order and get things done, while avoiding the too many cooks in the kitchen problem. There is a <a href="http://www.quora.com/soflastartups">great discussion going on around this topic on Quora</a>.</p>
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		<title>Can free markets fix coconut grove?</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/H3xFwu-NWxI/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/can-adam-smith-fix-coconut-grove/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 14:17:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1148</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I had a long discussion with a dear longtime friend and longtime Coconut Grove resident the other night, asking whether or not the grove could be fixed. This friend has been living in the area since the 1970s, so he’s &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/can-adam-smith-fix-coconut-grove/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I had a long discussion with a dear longtime friend and longtime Coconut Grove resident the other night, asking whether or not the grove could be fixed. This friend has been living in the area since the 1970s, so he’s seen every cycle possible in the neighborhood. I raised the question, “what can be done to save the grove?” His immediate response: “nothing, theoretically a free market will fix it.”</p>
<p><strong>Free Market Theory</strong><br />
Adam Smith, father of modern economic theory, posited that the market will dictate supply and demand, and that we as individuals have little say in controlling it. In any free market, there is a natural order to supply and demand that moves the economy either forward or backward, but causes organic change over time one way or the other. In its current state, the neighborhood of Coconut Grove, once a thriving entertainment area, has seen better days. There are a number of easy to identify factors for this current ebb: more competition from other areas (South Miami, Brickell, Design District, Midtown come to mind), lack of compelling fare (the food is better in other areas), outdated infrastructure, etc etc.</p>
<p><strong>Compelling Fare?</strong><br />
So lets look at the one factor that can be fixed easily by free markets: compelling fare. There are dozens of empty retail and restaurant locations sprinkled throughout the grove. Why is that? Well many were never smartly designed, or were designed for a different era (1990s). But the reality is that many of the landlords are saddled with cost-prohibitive mortgages on the properties they purchased during the height of the boom. This over-priced mortgage is then passed through to the tenants who are charged rents that are unrealistic considering today’s softer real estate market. Realistically very few businesses have the margins required to support the prices being asked of by the landlords in the neighborhood. Coupled with the decreased traffic (pedestrian, not vehicle traffic- as is cited on the CocoWalk owner’s site), its not surprising that these businesses are failing.  If the rents were low enough to support small businesses, then these businesses would come to the area. </p>
<p><strong>Bringing people in</strong><br />
One of the areas in which the grove does have an ability to fix its situation is in the branding, marketing, and promotion of the neighborhood. This is an area tasked to the BID, Chamber, and Village Councils. These groups need to take action before all their members (the businesses and the individuals) leave town and they are left holding the bag so to speak. As is, there is no cohesive image that the village is trying to portray, no unified marketing, nothing. Even the billboards that encircle the neighborhood point to businesses in neighboring cities such as Coral Gables. </p>
<p><strong>and then keeping them.</strong><br />
I am stopped at least three times per week while walking my dog around the neighborhood by lost tourists looking for something. I happily give them directions, but realistically there should be better signage, maps, and other simple quick wins to keep and move people around the village. A visitor to CocoWalk would never know how to find Lokal, and its delicious burgers even though they are merely a block away. A visitor to Greenstreet cafe wouldn’t be able to find the movie theater despite it being a couple blocks away as well.  Some basic urban planning needs to be done to manage the pedestrian flow. </p>
<p><strong>Finding the champions</strong><br />
Ultimately the first step is to find who will be the champions for the grove. I&#8217;ve done my part in getting at least a dozen people to move to the neighborhood, but I don&#8217;t have any skin in the game. The champions need to be the property owners, those who stand to lose the most if/when the neighborhood crumbles. Clearly the groups running things now don&#8217;t seem to understand the cause/effect relationship of inaction. So who will we task to whip the players into shape? Who will coach the grove into relevance in the 21st century?</p>
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		<title>Why your business needs a community</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/FFPT8mTFhRc/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/why-your-business-needs-a-community/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1141</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the past few years, I would have most likely focused this post on how your business needs to embrace the online community, however this is aimed more at physical businesses and the hybrid online/offline communities they need to survive &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/why-your-business-needs-a-community/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Over the past few years, I would have most likely focused this post on how your business needs to embrace the online community, however this is aimed more at physical businesses and the hybrid online/offline communities they need to survive in the 21st century.</p>
<p>For the last 6 months I’ve been working out at <a href="http://www.eliteufit.com"><strong>EliteU</strong> fitness in Miami, a crossfit</a> style gym which specializes in so called unconventional functional workouts. This isn’t a large gym, nor is it a cheap gym, however it is reflective of the challenges that many non-commodity businesses face these days. During the 6 months I’ve been a member of Elite U,  I’ve seen many of the same faces over and over, but a number have come and gone as well. So what makes the core group stay? What makes the others disappear? <strong>Social bonds</strong>.</p>
<p>The most fervent, regular members of the gym are the ones who’ve established social bonds with other members of the gym. They have added a layer of peer support and motivation, as well as a layer of entertainment (seeing your friends is fun) to their workouts. By establishing these bonds, the core groups of members have reinforced their connection to each other as well as the business. No longer are you going just for a workout, but because your friends expect to see you there, and you are striving to achieve a shared goal or milestone with your colleagues. Those who disappear after a few months have their reasons (injury, financial, or lose interest), but from my casual observations are usually the ones who did not establish relationships with their peers at the gym.</p>
<p>So as a business owner, how does this apply to you? How can you foster these bonds? Well in the case of a gym, you need to understand that the common social object for your members is a shared fitness goal, and lifestyle improvement. Large gyms, of which I’ve been a member of several in the past, do not emphasize relationships between customers, they make their money on you NOT showing up, and just paying the $30/month ad-infinitum. A premium, non-commodity offering can’t rely on people paying out a triple digit monthly fee without using it.</p>
<p>Maybe you aren’t a gym, but these concepts apply to everything from a local watering hole (bar), to a salon, to sporting good stores, to a clothing boutique. Any business where there is an object of desire that can inspire customers to discuss and connect over can foster a community. A smart business owner will provide their community with the tools necessary to interact with each other (think newsletters, bulletin boards, interactive websites like blogs) at little or no cost.</p>
<p>What are you doing to foster your customer community?</p>
<p>p.s.: see how this wasn’t about social media per se <img src='http://brianbreslin.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>Applying to grad school</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/brianbreslin/~3/mNeNmQhSoqE/</link>
		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/applying-to-grad-school/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jan 2012 13:35:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Brian]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1135</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So I&#8217;ve decided to apply to graduate school to get an MBA. Its something I&#8217;ve been thinking about for maybe 4 years, just decided this was the right time to go about doing it. I also made this decision slightly &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/applying-to-grad-school/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So I&#8217;ve decided to apply to graduate school to get an MBA. Its something I&#8217;ve been thinking about for maybe 4 years, just decided this was the right time to go about doing it. I also made this decision slightly late in the application process, and am doing everything at the very last possible minute. This however is when I shine, during crunch-time!</p>
<p>I&#8217;m going to be outlining on here what schools I&#8217;m applying to, why I&#8217;m looking to get an MBA, and probably sharing my application essays on here as well.</p>
<p>So the big question is &#8220;Why are you getting an MBA Brian?&#8221;<br />
Well I&#8217;ve thought long and hard about this, and even though for years I was seemingly anti-MBA, I really wasn&#8217;t anti-MBA. I was anti-any-MBA. I wholeheartedly believe the value of certain MBAs far outweighs that of the average MBA. So for me, a handful of schools make a lot of sense to me, and most schools would be a waste of my time and money. This however doesn&#8217;t answer the question of why.</p>
<p>The decision to get an MBA is based on the following thought process. On my own I can run my own company, build something from the ground up with no meaningful amounts of funding, and live a comfortable life. I however am looking at this from a long-term perspective. I want to be able to make a large impact on the world, so whatever I do next has to be of a much larger scale. To accomplish that on my own is going to be incredibly challenging, however to accomplish this with the assistance of the MBA from these top-tier schools, would make it much more attainable.</p>
<p>I was asked at an HBS event recently what I wanted to do with my MBA, and I told them that my next job doesn&#8217;t exist yet.</p>
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		<title>2012 Predictions</title>
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		<comments>http://brianbreslin.com/2012-predictions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jan 2012 17:00:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brian Breslin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://brianbreslin.com/?p=1132</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2012 Predictions So every year I put my nostradamus hat on and make bets as to what will happen in the upcoming year. I’m like 65% correct over the last 5 years, I should be wagering money on this. So &#8230; <a href="http://brianbreslin.com/2012-predictions/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2012 Predictions</p>
<p>So every year I put my nostradamus hat on and make bets as to what will happen in the upcoming year. I’m like 65% correct over the last 5 years, I should be wagering money on this. So here are my bets for 2012</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa.</strong><br />
Price will be in the $5B range. Dorsey will make sure it remains network agnostic (i.e. keeps accepting cards from the competitors).</li>
<li><strong>Facebook will IPO and break the recent tech IPO slump</strong><br />
This makes sense because Facebook actually makes money, whereas sites like groupon and zynga aren’t anywhere near as profitable as they would have previously liked us to believe.</li>
<li><strong>LivingSocial catches up to Groupon</strong><br />
I suspect LivingSocial’s more cautious approach to this market has left them in a much better financial situation relative to cash flow than Groupon, so they will use this to pull ahead. I do see the daily deal market stagnating though. So any lead changes will be due to non-daily-deal innovations they pull out of their hat. Think instant deals, and providing marketing services outside of deals to these small businesses they have.</li>
<li><strong>RIM sells to Microsoft for less than $5B</strong><br />
Seeing an opportunity to instantly force-upgrade everyone on blackberry to Windows Phone 8 with built in MSN Messenger, Microsoft buys the pieces of RIM, and leverages their connections in the enterprise world to push Outlook and Exchange. I see this as another skype like deal, since they can use their foreign cash assets to buy RIM (seeing as RIM is Canadian).</li>
<li><strong>Amazon continues to grow its hardware business</strong><br />
I see them releasing a kindle phone using android, and a larger Fire DX model. I expect them to ship 10-15M kindle devices in 2012. 20% of them being Fire models (android with color screens etc).</li>
<li><strong>Amazon will still survive despite states imposing sales taxes</strong><br />
The sales tax savings will be gone to most consumers, but with Amazon pushing harder on Prime services, the convenience and lower prices will still be enough to shift consumers away from Big Box retail. Their growth will be slower than in previous years though.</li>
<li><strong>Mobile commerce explodes in US.</strong><br />
Visa is making a HEAVY push for their retailers to upgrade to NFC equipped point of sale machines. Now the only component left is for the phone makers to integrate NFC into their devices en masse. This won’t happen until LATE 2012, expect it in the iPhone 5. However I do see tie ins with location + mobile + payments converging. Think paying for your meal by seeing the bill on your phone at your table, and hitting checkout. Question is who will be the network for that transaction or who will be the gateway. I could see Apple and Google fighting this one out. I don’t see NFC as the end solution, more the bridge solution in this. I do see the traditional point of sale device changing substantially (why do we still need cash registers? Apple retails have 1 per store yet sell on the floor more).</li>
<li><strong>Salesforce buys a number of social media integration companies</strong><br />
My guess is Hootsuite will be bought by salesforce in the $30-40M range. I could also see them buying Klout in the $10-15M range.</li>
<li><strong>Facebook hits 1 billion users</strong><br />
This number is less important than the active users, which will be in the 500M daily, and 500M on mobile (up from 350M mobile users now). The mobile is the key number, as that is where their growth will be in the next year or two. As of Dec 31, they were saying they had 800M users, with 50% active every day. No one else has the same reach on Mobile. 1 in 8 mobile phones in the world is accessing Facebook in some fashion at some point during the month. This is even more impressive when you consider the lack of reliable mobile data connectivity in much of the world. These are not all smart phones either, lots are simple feature phones.</li>
<li><strong>The world will not end in 2012.</strong><br />
If the Mayans could predict the end of the world, how come they couldn’t predict the end of their own civilization? So if you truly believe the world is going to end, please put me in your will. I will happily spend your money after you’ve commited suicide or scared yourself to death in December.</li>
</ol>
<p>So what do you think will happen in 2012?</p>
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