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Don't worry about Time Spent on Facebook

2012-05-23T21:47:20Z

Is this BI/comScore chart bad for Facebook, or is this what we would expect? BusinessInsider says the time spent is shiftting to other social networks. I am not convinced.

Look at the Facebook developer site: Build Facebook for Websites. Build For Mobile. Build Apps on Facebook. These are strategically important initiatives, all taking the Facebook platform and making the digital world more social, but also taking time and attention off of “Facebook”.

From Facebook's Developer Homepage: this is what Facebook is betting on, and consumers are flocking to it. I can't prove it with the data above, but if you're only looking at minutes on the site, that's what you'd see.

Behavior Networks like Pinterest are easy to start because the Facebook Identity layer is there for support - if Facebook were Microsoft it would probably have shut off Pinterest's access to the open graph; Facebook is a very different kind of company.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-facebooks-engagement-has-peaked-and-now-its-falling-2012-5#ixzz1vjRLWPry

Could your ISP track your Roaming via CableWiFi?

2012-05-21T17:22:00Z

The downside of the CableWifi roaming partneship is clearly about privacy. TheNextWeb reports that five major ISPs team up for massive Wi-Fi sharing effort across the US.

Imagine the ad targeting possibilities – with a single sign on as you roam the country, your ISP/MSO record is now going to follow you around he country. Now with a slick landing page over wifi, or a flag on your addressable cable box, your surfing and travcel habits are now even more interesting fodder for multi-screen ad targeting. It would be fascinating to know whether the CableWifi folks will be partnering with an offline/online cookie solution.

According to the article:

In what will be a massive win for US cable company subscribers, five of the country’s largest cable providers have announced that they will combine to offer each other’s customers access to their own metropolitan Wi-Fi networks — the largest such project in the US to date.

The partnership will include Bright House Networks, Cablevision, Comcast, Cox and Time Warner Cable and will include access to over 50,000 Wi-Fi hotspots across the US under the CableWiFi brand.

...

In order to connect to the hotspots, subscribers simply have to look for a CableWiFi network and then connect using the same details that they use when connecting to their existing provider’s networks. Over the next couple of months, those networks will automatically connect to these networks when they are near a CableWiFi hotspot.

Reminder: free wifi is hardly EVER free.

My Googa Mooga Experience: Yum, Poor Lexus

2012-05-21T01:13:04Z

Spent 5 hours at the free event today; I felt pretty happy about getting a Spotted Pig burger instead of waiting 4 hours for a table, but the 200 people in line for Luke's Lobster was incomprehensible. What really bothered me, though, was the atrocious AT&T and Verizon service.

Facebook will know the future before you can Tweet it

2012-05-18T21:09:25Z

What were you doing last night? Mark Zuckerberg had a hackathon. Oh yeah, and today his company went public.

I have been thinking about valuation of Facebook all week, and i think whatever the offering price is, it's wrong, and the GM announcement just made things worse by focusing on revenue in the Millions. The valuation should not be based on revenue.

Instead we are looking at the premiere testing ground for defining social expereiences and ad products across multiple channels based on the behavior and reactions of real users. The future is clearly coming, where recommendations and votes of confidence from friends will be louder than advertising. With the end of broadcast, and even the end of web portals, attention is a strategic asset. And Facebook has a boatload of attention, because we are addicted to news about other people.

This need to gossip, and the need to share, is a basic human need- It's Brain Candy, according to Harvard researchers.

To be cute about my hypothesis: Facebook will know the future, ship an awesome product and move on, before you can Tweet it.

Facebook is in a dominant market position to be able to take the attention people spend on the platform, across devices and all over the social web, to find out what works before any of their competitors, and with enough scale to stay ahead. As long as they do not piss off users (the product being sold to advertisers) then the business is incredibly valuable. I don't really know how to value it, but you must imagine some of these platforms competing with each other, and almost no one can compete with Facebook in this regard.

It comparatively easy to build a behavior network to scale, but people are growing tired of joining new identity networks - they already have Facebook, or Linkedin, or Google, and it is so easy to get traction by just riding over the top of that; consumers will begin to expect it. Such a strategic advantage is incredibly valuable, and suggests that Facebook might even have a business when many of these other platforms just get boring. Facebook will be the social layer people use - and that could echo for a decade or more.

Facebook keeps saying they are not trying to be a great company, they are trying to make a great product, and while the effects are similar the emphasis contained therein produces really remarkable results. So don't worry about getting the valuation right, because they are going to ship a lot of code before anyone figures out the generational shift in behavior and advertising we're in, but I think Facebook might be the company that gets there first.

Facebook stock closed barely above the offer price - find me someone at Facebook who really cares about that, instead of shipping a great product. Their strategy? Culture as strategy. Facebook tries to get people to enjoy but not flaunt their wealth and these norms suggest that inside Facebook is brewing...the next Facebook.

Path, Twitter, LinkedIn and Foursquare: Can there be more than one identity network

2012-04-29T16:30:19Z

iden·ti·ty. noun \ī-ˈden-tə-tē, ə-, -ˈde-nə-\: the distinguishing character or personality of an individual -Merriam-webster.com

I suggested in my previous post about identity networks that Behavior Networks have certain properties.

But what about Identity networks?

Identity networks are primarily networks of connections, not content. Even though content rides on top, identity (friends, co-workers, classmates, teammates etc) is defined by connections between users are the primary organizing principle.

Behavior networks don't need to or even really care to store your data of this variety. To some degree, this is about the maturity of the network itself. Path is well-funded, and doesn't necessarily need to generate revenue - it is focusing on creating a product people love. It is also riding the tide of people who think identity networks are too powerful.

This property of identity networks is quite interesting. Who is the customer, from Facebook's perspective? Depending on your point of view, the customer is the one who pays (the advertiser) or the user (the person who registers an account for their identity). What if those two groups do not want the same thing? So identity networks are constantly seeking to grow revenue without alienating users, who produce the inventory for sale to advertisers.

The inventory is connections, and content, and the trackable data within the network, and we are now at the point where users have more control, but also less power in this equation. They have more discrete levels of control over their information, but less aggregate power: their information remains on the site. The business of Facebook marketing seeks endlessly to grab data from users, turn it into inventory and find willing bidders for that inventory.

LinkedIn is Facebook's strongest rival identity network. LinkedIn has added many more content behaviors than I really thought possible, but it has proven its staying power and has a commanding advantage in terns of data that is increasingly an opportunity for display advertising and the emerging corporate pages that employees are now connecting to. What remains under-leveraged is the extension of LinkedIn's identity network into the physical and corporate IT environments. I'll do a separate post about some strategic opportunities along those lines for LinkedIn.

The value of a network increases exponentially with the number of people (nodes) and the number of connections between them, but as users become aware of the power dynamic in which they stand, value is being drained out of the network. This is first reputational damage done by privacy scandals and the like, and subsequently by users who defect to behavior networks or leave the social world altogether. this is why Facebook runs aggressive re-engagement campaigns for users who have not logged in regularly.

Path is somewhere between a behavior and identity network, and seems chastened by the address book privacy scandal from just a few months ago. In fact, if you go back to the launch of Path's app "With" which had a very simple photo sharing mechanic for sharing who you are With, Path lets us know they are in the business of building networks:

as we continue our quest to build new types of networks which maintain their quality over time, we have been fascinated by the idea of an interaction network. Or, as we enjoy calling it, the With Graph.

Interaction networks, or behavior networks, can be discrete products, to test features and bring a feature set clearly into focus before adding it into a product. It's clear that this ethos is infused within Path, as many have discovered. Check out Path's About web page - which I have labeled below; the lesson: don't build when you can get all of the functionality without woorying about the infrastructure?

These are just some of the issues that companies struggle with. Do we build our own networks, or extend others? Do we have the ability to trust business partners to host our content, and critical utilities, when they are focused, precise, but not under our control? One of the side effects of a services-oriented world, in which marketing services are delivered by a multitude of vendors and in-house solutions, is that identity and behavior networks can be easily adopted into the marketing ecosystem - will it be you, or your competitor who gets there first?

Foursquare has a better shot at being a location-enabling platform, and it is doing a great job of expanding the behaviors - from check-in to discovery - that can be built with the network. It could become a centralized clearinghouse of your place in physical space, enabled with your permissions and enriching digital interactions. Foursquare's connections are transmit location information, which has different sensitivities, and it's been harder for other social networks to effectively create location-sensitive content filters. The rich opportunity for serving deals and enriching merchant relationships arising from actual, physical visits and commerce. Perhaps Foursquare could a platform for retail commerce, featuring payments and offering retailer CRM opportunities..but it will have to become a stronger Identity network in order to do so.

I will address ways to profit from this tension between behavior networks and identity networks, and how to effectively leverage behavior networks, in my next post.

BEWARE: Foursquare Friend Request Phishing Scam

2012-04-25T20:50:26Z

I just received the below, purporting to be a friend approval from a name i din't recognize. It's a phising scam, hoping you all try not to open. Not sure if the sender knew my foursquare account was attched to a specific email address, but they had me going, for sure. If anyone wants the full headers, I will happily share.

Don't let your SEO strategy get away from you

2012-04-22T20:28:43Z

My dad sent me a link to a story on the SF BUsiness times site, and after logging in and seeing the story, I found myself wandering. I saw side by side ads for Verizon and AT&T careers, and I was curious about how these ads were related to the destination content. My, was I surprised. The sites both linked to the homepage of the respective career pages. I'll show AT&T and then Verizon's. Both companies are so large, and nationwide employers, it is interesting that they approach things so differently.

With AT&T, I felt welcomed by a gallery of faces of actual humans, and there's enough happening on the site that everyone from recruiters, to college students, to experienced professionals should be able to find what they are looking for. You have to hand it to the company for using the .jobs TLD (the site is http://att.jobs) yet the branding feels spot on for what I expect to see from the other touchpoints I regularly use as a customer.

By contrast, I found Verizon's careers site mystifying, wit so many links to so many things, and so many groupings.

Remember, no matter how much your site's success depends on organic search, and regarless of the desperation of your target audience to "convert" (whether a job application, tshirt purchase, or other action) someone will actually, eventually, with human eyes, look at your site.

I'm seeing more and more the paradox of organic search and the site design below, which seems to put everything but the kitchen sink as a text link on the homepage. This won't last forever, and the increasedinfluence of social content and participation on link relevance will hopefully limit the impact of these usability-killing visual mazes.

UPDATE: In fairness to Verizon, it seems like the page I landed on wasn't the home page. The home page, below, shows off more of the corporate identity that I saw on AT&T's page. I'll stick to the point about the SEO contrast, but I also think the landing page choice for Verizon was not the best. Choosing the right campaign landing page is a question for another day.

Behavior Networks and Identity Networks

2012-04-16T13:47:00Z

Instagram's acquisition by Facebook illustrates how the tension between identity networks, and behavior networks will play out in the marketplace, and how it may not benefit users directly. This divide pits sites like Pinterest and Instagram vs. Facebook, Twitter, Path, and others.

Identity networks, like Facebook and Linkedin, focus on You and managing connections to pieces of identity, and while you may have have wide-ranging conversations within such networks around content, which are key to communicating your identity, the profile remains the anchor point to an identity you care about. Facebook deserves credit for making this idea popular and easy to understand - forcing Google and Microsoft to change in many ways.

Facebook's Connect and Open Graph initiatives show how crucial the concept of identity is to the Facebook model- the advertising Facebook sees in the future isn't customized by cookie pools, it's customized based on the open graph. It's not limited to Less and less of the meaning that users derive from being Facebook users will come from using Facebook.com and more and more will come from experiences enabled by the Facebook Platform. Facebook, as it extends the platform, is admitting that it cannot innovate fast enough at the edge to keep every user fully engaged - what they want is to have that user identified and authenticated, pulling their behavior into the Facebook ecosystem.

Thus, the edge of the platform, powered by identity, is where new user behaviors will emerge. These emergent groups of connections, I call Behavior Networks. They have several important properties.

Leverage an identity network to authenticate users - e.g. social sign in
An intentionally narrow feature set, the novelty of which self-selects new users.
User to user value exchange is based on behaviors - e.g. who you are on Pinterest is DEFINED by what you pin.
Nonlinear growth in user base enabled by the Identity Network.
Scale is the enemy of behavior networks, because they represent the end of novelty (2).

Behavior networks remain rooted in one style of behaving, and are key to a very specific context or action. Instagram and Pinterest are in this category. While relying to varying degrees on your identity (on Facebook, Twitter, etc) your identity on these sites defines your behavior - if you never publish anything, you don't exist. No matter how many instgram photos you take, that's all the network says about you.

Test yourself, when was the last time you deleted an Instagram photo? When was the last time you deleted a Facebook post? I've done many of those things on Facebook, but I never worry about Instgram.

The real-time web is perfect for behavior networks. All that matters is what you are doing- your behavior is your only identity but it doesn't live forever.

For these reasons, these behavior networks represent a challenge for marketers. Extending engagement beyond the behavior network - site traffic, conversions and so on - will be used to prove that the marketer's participation had some value. And this will require functionality a behavior network operator will be loathe to construct. All ROI metrics will come down to this: did the users engage further? Did they pin stuff and their friends bought it? The ROI analysis will require a channel linked to identity. So as marketers we face the dilemma of proving the value of engagement beyond behavior networks, and these are uncertain times indeed.

My next two posts on this topic will deal with:

Path, Twitter, LinkedIn and Foursquare: Can there be more than one identity network
How will the tension chnage the practice of marketing?

WSJ vs. NYT: The Reality Distortion Field

2012-04-14T21:34:23Z

Side by side, the headlines from today's WSJ and Today's NYT. Doesn't get any clearer that these two papers are picking the facts they want...in everything.

Why Pinterest is A Fad

2012-04-12T17:37:32Z

Consumer attention is finite, but so is your marketing department. Pinterest reached scale quickly, and I commend it for its 10 million users, but are those users so invested that the next “thing” won't become just as hot by rising 50% faster? How much of your social media team's time are you willing to bet?