… and then there were eleven! Yes, only 11 horses will compete for the win in the second jewel in the Triple Crown.

This could mean that we’ll have a TC winner this year because no one showed up. OR… they’re all planning to spoil the chances by resting for the third leg; the Belmont Stakes.

So, of course the Kentucky Derby winner will run. After all, we want a Triple Crown winner don’t we? Well, yes and no… I want one, but I want one that deserves it. I want a standout that can beat every three year old rival this year. I don’t want one that wins by default because the competition has decided not to run.

Thankfully, there are some horses (4) entered in the Preakness that didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby, or else we would have a 7 horse giveaway.

But wait a moment… the KD winner is not even favored to win! “I’ll Have Another” is second in the morning odds to “Bodemeister” who ran an amazing race in Kentucky… for a while. He set unbelievable times as he tore around the track at Churchill Downs before quitting due to exhaustion and allowing “I’ll Have Another” to catch up and pass.

I expect a totally different pace this time. 1) Trinniberg is missing. 2) Mike Smith has been duly chastised by Baffert for his insane dash in the KD. 3) I’ll Have Another will need incredible luck (as he had in Kentucky) to get a totally uncontested trip. 4) this is a longer race.

Bodemeister should win this one.

Here are the Post Positions for this Saturday’s Preakness:

Megan – I’ll never doubt you again!

It was an impressive win over a very tired “Bodemeister” who had set record breaking splits during the race. Why? I’m so surprised that Mike Smith rode him so hard instead of letting him relax and settle in behind the speedster “Trinniberg”. We all knew only two things about this race:

1) Trinniberg would race to the front

2) Trinniberg would fade badly

Why didn’t Mike Smith (the jockey on “Bodemeister”) let him do that on his own?

Ratz!

What will happen in the Preakness? I don’t know how the horses will come out of this race. “I’ll have Another” looked cool enough in the winners circle. But beat up “Bodemeister”? that’s a big question.

There’s a very good chance that if he’s entered in the Preakness – just 2 weeks away – that he’ll be the betting favorite. That’s because he’ll either have a new jockey or one that’s been read the riot act by a soft spoken, weakened trainer (due to health issues) who must be genuinely pissed off!

“I’ll Have Another” closed brilliantly, and should get a big share of the betting public’s money because of today’s effort. Remember – the Preakness is even longer than the Kentucky Derby (ouch).

More later… stay tuned!

First – Congratulations to the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks; Rosie Napravnik. Of course, the horse deserves some of the credit. So Congratulations to  ”Believe You Can”. The owners, trainers and handlers all Believed!

So, now comes the biggie: the Kentucky Derby. This, the 138th running is impossible to figure. I’ve been sure of my picks in the past (right or wrong), but this year – it’s the most open field as far as possible winners go that I can remember.

My favorite since the Arkansas Derby (as you know, Oaklawn is my favorite track), Bodemeister is likely to become everyone’s favorite come post time. I’d like to get a better price on him, but now you all know he’s the fastest of the field. He has as many triple digit Beyers as does the rest of the field – combined! His 3 are better than their three – na na na na… na na!  LOL

He’s got early speed, he’s got a great post position, he’s coming into the race fit… what’s to not like?

… the other horses – that’s what to not like. There are just too many of them that have legitimate chances of taking the Roses this year.

Let’s take a final look:

Union Rags – likely to be the second favorite in the betting and rightly so. This horse may take advantage of fast splits and catch ‘em all!

Dullahan – He’d be a co-favorite also except that his ability on dirt is suspect. He too will be charging late.

Creative Cause – If he goes off at 15-1 or better – he’ll be the best “longshot” in years. Can Do!

Daddy Nose Best – Dangerous! He’s sneaky… comes from behind, however this is definitely a step-up in class and although he’s got the winningest PP (10) I don’t think he’ll get there in time… close though.

Alpha – Very capable closer. Watch for a great run up the stretch.

Gemologist – He’s never lost! And 2 of his wins were here at Churchill Downs. The locals will be all over him – a short price will eliminate him for me.

El Padrino – Here’s a real sleeper. I don’t know what to make of this horse. He’s faster than many in the race (98) and has beaten some in this group. We’ll get a great price on this horse… maybe 25-1 or more!

Sabrecat – Scary! I can’t wait to see what this horse does. He’s a real secret. Steve Asmussen has done “just enough” to qualify him for this race without getting any attention at all. He’s really done a masterful job of keeping him under wraps and bringing him to peak at the right time. Can’t overlook the possibility of an upset!

But – having said that, I’m sticking with my earlier predictions:

Bodemeister

Union Rags

Dullahan

… the rest… yes the rest – ALL 17 of ‘em!

Fasten your seat belts my friends – we’re in for a helluva ride!

Tomorrow, Tomorrow, I love ya Tomorrow… you’re more than just a day away!

 Usually, the PP dictates changes in the Pre-PP odds, but not this year. None of my favorites are substantially affected by their PP… so here are my picks:

1: Bodemeister
2: Union Rags
3: Dullahan

Sorry – those are the favorites and the odds are not great.

Prediction:

The ONLY thing I’m sure of is this: Bodemeister, Dullahan, Union Rags and Trinniberg will lead the way into the first turn. After that, I give up!

However, if those four can keep the pace reasonable, the three should also be there at the finish (Trinniberg might hang on for fourth). If the fractions are brutal as I suspect they will be, then watch for the sneakers and closers: Gemologist just behind the leaders into the 1st turn, Alpha ditto and needs a clean trip, Hansen.

Play it this way:

BM to Win

BM/UR Exacta

BM/UR/DH Trifecta

BM/UR/DH + CC+ DNB + GEM + HAN + IHA + ElP + ALP + TCI + TB Superfecta

… then throw ‘em all in a hat and choose again.

I have a “consensus” table so you can see what the popular pics are:

 The points are awarded by each of the seven experts. 5 for Win, 3 for Place, and 1 for Show. The numbers in the Parenthesis are number of experts that picked the horse to Win.

Yep – it’s the KD folks – anything and everything can happen.

But, start I must, so here goes:

“Back in the day” – it used to be so much less complicated to pick a winning horse. Not easier, just less complicated. I used a tiny “computer” from Radio shack. I wrote a program in “Basic” that was a very efficient numbers cruncher. That’s all we had to go on… numbers. We had the (limited) Past Performances and the Daily Racing Form – Period.

Today, we have videos of EVERY prep race and even workouts – software programs that were unimaginable 30 years ago. Details of every 3 yr old is available online as is the Lifetime performances of each. Now, I can sit home… watch races from around the world, listen to experts talk about the horses and the races, and I can even bet from home. And then, get real time coverage of the races.

But this year is unique because there has been no clear frontrunner… no favorite. Sure, we’ve had a full field of 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby for many years now, and the days of a Secretariat scaring off contenders seem to be a thing of the past, but still we’ve had favorites to concentrate on our handicapping efforts on.

Currently, the favorite is Bodemeister. That’s a sad thing for me but for purely selfish reasons. I LOVE Oaklawn. It’s by far my favorite track. And that’s where Bodemeister blew up the competition and ran away with the Arkansas Derby. His 9 length win rocketed him to stardom. I prefer going into the Kentucky Derby secretly betting on the AD winner… there’s no secret this year… the cat is out of the bag.

Bodemeister should go into the Kentucky Derby as the clear favorite this year. I say SHOULD because there’s a big IF involved:

This Wednesday, the winner of the Kentucky Derby may be picked “out of a hat”. That’s when the post positions will be chosen. With such a talented field this year, it could very well come down to PP as the most important factor as to who is the winner at the finish line.

Aside from that HUGE factor… let’s look at the horses:

There are many horses in this year’s race that should win based upon their prep races. So what’s a person to do?

Bodemeister: Clearly the fastest horse in the field. He proved that with a big Beyer (108) in the Arkansas Derby. I thought the first timing of :23 + was a bit slow, but he stepped it up and crunched the clock. Triple digit Beyers was not new to him; he did it 3 times in a row! BTW: only 3 other horses in the race got a 3 digit beyer (and they did it only once): “Creative Cause”, “El Padrino”, and my favorite name in the Race: “Daddy Nose Best” (it’s a clever name for a race horse, and it cracks me up). Every KD winner in the last 20 years (at least) finished with a 3 digit Beyer. However it should be noted that 5 of those past winners came into the race with no 3-digit beyers to their credit (including all of the KD winners in the last 3 years).

This horse brings up another factor that we didn’t deal with 30 years ago. Bode has only 4 career starts. That would not have gotten him any attention back then, but now, it’s not so uncommon nor a reason to dismiss a horse. The plot thickens!

Did you know that you have to go back well over a hundred years to find a KD winner that never raced as a 2 yr old? (I think it was 1892). Well, that’s the knock on Bode! Yep – he never raced at all as a 2 yr old.

Gemologist: He’s UNbeaten! Wow, that’s impressive in this year’s crop of 3yr olds. However, Gemologist has defeated a not-so-great group of mostly losing horses.

Hansen: Looking back at his record, it’s difficult to see why he got so much press as a leading contender for the Roses. It had to have come from last year’s Juvenile run here at Churchill Downs where no fewer than 9 of these contenders raced, and “Hansen” beat them all. With that exception, he’s a winner of minor races and beaten loser on occasion. I certainly don’t expect a rerun of the Juvenile. ‘nuf said.

Union Rags: here’s another horse with a lot of early press and promise. He couldn’t catch even “Hansen” in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (more on that later). He was a favorite to win the Florida Derby but disappointed his believers. He did make up some ground on the eventual winner “Take Charge Indy”.

Daddy Long Legs: An unknown and unproven shipper, this horse sneaks in from Dubai with questionable credentials and unknown performances abroad. Another knock: he’s best on grass.

Dullahan: My pick to win earlier this month, this horse NEEDS a good post position to remain my pick. He cannot start from outside in a 20 horse field. Further, his best performances were on a Polytrack or grass, and that may not translate well when he hits the dirt. He needs more than a good post position; he also needs a fast pace which would enable him to close as is his want. If he pulls this off, he’ll have the target horse “Trinniberg” to thank for a really quick pace.

Take Charge Indy: He will not get the perfect race here that he got in Florida. There, he broke cleanly, got inside, kept the pace slow and had enough to outlast the rest including “Union Rags”. But here, with a dirt track, a 20 horse field and a quicker pace, he looks like an also finished to me. Not to say he won’t be a part of the exotics, but not the winner.

I’ll Have Another: Here’s a case of a good horse, with a good win, and a record including a win over another Kentucky Derby entrant… that simply is not fast enough to win this race.

Creative Cause: Here’s the horse that “I’ll Have Another” nosed out for the win at Santa Anita. That’s not much to hang your hat on. Could win, and that’s cool, ’cause he’s such a great looking horse! And don’t forget, he beat “Bodemeister”!!!

I repeat… What’s a guy to do?

Now I’m not saying that was a bad thing. Several execs and celebs were charged with serious felonies. So – Good!… Good Riddance… GoodBye Bad Guys. But, that left the US players with serious holes in their gambling time (and bankrolls).

What’s left for a Poker Player to do? We can still play online for play money (at PokerStars.net for example), or break the law.

That’s not a good choice for the serious players.

It’s the American Gaming Association that has jumped up to call for MORE regulation on this first anniversary… They’re asking Congress to “modernize and strengthen” the Wire Act of 1961 in order to eliminate illegal, offshore gambling sites that are still operating.  They’ve succeeded in getting the major sites “blacked out” to American players.

The Association wants tighter regulation so that “if” or “when” online gambling opens up to players in the US, they will “be able to gamble online securely in states that eventually choose to legalize the practice”.

What would you expect them to say? We don’t want US players to spend their money anywhere but in our casinos!… hmmmmmm.

Where are they? Las Vegas! Hmmmm something doesn’t smell right… Now, if I were in Las Vegas, AND a casino owner, and a member of the American Gaming Association… what would I do? What would you do?

Is this a case of the Fox guarding the HenHouse?

Who stands to lose if Online Gambling opens up? Big Money says it won’t. I mean BIG money. Those “Haves” pour Millions into their efforts… what can the player do?

Hang on, fasten your seat belt, it’s going to be a bumpy ride!

History, but not historic… at least not obviously historic.

We’ve witnessed greatness fall to mediocrity… we’ve watched mediocrity gain greatness… We’re seeing the Kentucky Derby field more clearly now that there are only 3 weeks to wait for it.

And that 3 weeks is critical. Is it too short a time to come back from a big race and run a mile and a quarter? Can an easy win in the Arkansas Derby mean that Bodemeister ran too fast and hurt his chances to win the Kentucky Derby – OR – did it mean that he had no problem with the field today, no problem with the track today… and depending upon how he comes out of this race… will he be a favorite on the 1st day of May?

The other prep race was only an hour earlier, so the same question arise for the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes. Will Dullahan come out of it ready to go on Derby day? He had a much, much tougher battle with the favorite Hansen and I believe that they both eliminated themselves from contention  in the Kentucky Derby.

So, who does that leave? Ok, here are the top five contenders as I see it today. Keep in mind, this can and will change as we get closer to the Derby.

In no particular order:

Union Rags

I’ll Have Another

Creative Cause

Bodemeister

Gemologist

My pick today? Maybe the Santa Anita Derby will produce the winner this year. That’s only happened 8 times in the past (with one Triple Crown Winner: Affirmed did it in 1978). Despite the dismal LA – Louisville past performances… I’m currently picking “I’ll Have Another” to win the Derby.

Take that to the bank… or better still: stay tuned!

It’s a guilty pleasure. There are obvious reasons for my keeping this from you. Repercussions you know. Too often this passion causes assumptions (warranted or not) that one may not want to address. I however, don’t fit the “stereotypical” fan of this activity. This is something that gets me excited… watching it! I don’t participate, not because I’m left-handed (the reason I can’t participate in Jai Alai), but because 1 – I’m too old for it, and 2 – I lack the talent necessary for it…

I admire those who do participate at ANY level, and hold in awe those professionals that do it day in and day out – tirelessly and with seemingly unearthly abilities! It gives me the “goosies” as J-Lo likes to call them.

Last night I watched a very talented group of teenagers do it. I was amazed! They did it like they had been doing it for longer than their young lives would allow. Where do they learn these things? How did they get so good at it?

Of course, I’m talking about…

Musical Theatre…

Aw C’mon, you know you love it!

I’ve made it a habit… whenever I go to NYC, I try to see as many shows as possible. I’ve been known to squeeze in 9 shows in a week!

So, now you know BOTH of my passions! (I still have some “sub-passions” that I could share with you)

Getting back to last night. I watched a local company perform “Anything Goes”. First, I’m amazed that this show is still a) around, b) fun, c) relevant… after all… this show is almost 100 years old! Wow!

It’s enjoying a successful run on Broadway and is being done by companies throughout America. I’m hoping to catch it on tour.

Here’s a shot of last night’s performance of “Anything Goes”:

"Blow Gabriel Blow" starring Tabitha Hardy as Reno Sweeney

But, even as I write this, my main passion is live… I’m watching the horses at Keeneland in anticipation of the “Blue Grass Stakes” in about 2 hours from now. I’m especially interested in Hansen’s performance. There hasn’t been a lot of buzz around this horse lately… mainly due, I suppose, to his waiting for this race while the “hot” talk is about the winners and losers in the prep races already run.

This will either put the lid on him or propel him again to the top of this year’s class. We’ll soon see.

I inserted two “optional plays” that I hadn’t covered in the last version; “Oddsman Betting” and “Don’t Buys”.

The Clickbank version will soon be changed as well.

Yesterday, Amazon shipped my new proofs to me, after they arrive, I’ll be making the soft-cover book available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble’s Nook and in their stores as well. I’ll be putting up the iBook version soon too.

This morning I was asked a question by a reader (Thanks P. Shumanski)…

“Just read the new version of your e book on craps. Very good! I have a question you may want the reader to know. If you have say 4 numbers covered and the point is 6, the shooter makes the point and you lose the 6 but still have 3 covered numbers left on the table. On the come out roll the shooter rolls a 7 and both sides win, you and the shooter. Do you bet against him on the new come out point since he rolled a natural 7 even though we won?”

That’s a great question, and the answer is:

NO! We do NOT bet against this shooter again. A Natural is a Natural.

What you’re describing is not much different than if you had made a nice profit off this guy, and then the next time around to him, he throws a natural.

Same thing – right?

So, nope – stay away from this shooter.

========== Send your questions to me: buzz  at  ipns.com ===============