Moscow - War and Peace in the Caucasus

The Karabakh Truce Under Threat

Thomas de Waal — Thu, 12 Feb 2015 10:28:14 +0000

A worsening pattern of violence on the Karabakh ceasefire line increases the danger of a war by miscalculation in 2015.

Sources of Israel’s Policy in the Caucasus

Maxim Suchkov — Thu, 05 Feb 2015 09:52:25 +0000

Israel’s interests in the Caucasus have three principal dimensions: strategically, as a means of encircling Iran; in the mid-term, as a zone of energy supplies; and in a short-term, as a market for selling high tech arms and ammunition.

Prospects for Turkey’s New “Armenia Opening” and Russia’s Concerns

Pavel Shlykov — Thu, 29 Jan 2015 10:10:27 +0000

Recently the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations has drawn the attention of both Turkish and world media. However, current activities around the “Armenian question” failed to create solid ground for real compromise between the two states.

Armenia: Aftermath of a Massacre

Thomas de Waal — Wed, 28 Jan 2015 06:05:48 +0000

The political fallout of the horrible murders in Gyumri will not result in a strategic re-orientation by Armenia away from Russia. However, it will undermine public support for Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his government.

Ramzan Kadyrov as a Federal-Level Politician

Alexey Malashenko — Mon, 19 Jan 2015 09:32:49 +0000

Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic in the North Caucasus, is now firmly entrenched in Russian politics at the federal-level, and it appears that he is there to stay, because Putin and Kadyrov really need each other.

Swallowing South Ossetia

Thomas de Waal — Wed, 14 Jan 2015 08:56:18 +0000

Russia and South Ossetia are about to sign a “Treaty of Alliance and Integration.” However, normalization of relations with Georgia is impossible as long as Moscow continues to strengthen its grip on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Looking Back on 2014 (Part II)

Wed, 31 Dec 2014 10:56:23 +0000

2014 was a year of crisis. Ebola, ISIS, and Donbas are now part of the global lexicon. Eurasia Outlook experts weigh in on how crises on Russia’s periphery affected the country, and what these developments mean for Moscow in 2015.

The Great Clash Explained: What Drives Dangerous Tensions Between the West and Russia

Dmitri Trenin — Tue, 30 Dec 2014 22:01:58 +0000

For over two decades, no one in the West felt the need for regulating Russia’s relations with NATO. The lesson of the Napoleonic wars about the need to integrate a former adversary—which was forgotten after WWI—has been forgotten again.

Regime Change Divides East and West

Thomas de Waal — Wed, 17 Dec 2014 10:33:44 +0000

In the new ideological cleavage that has opened up between Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Western countries, one idea divides them like no other: the meaning of regime change.

The Grozny Attack—What’s Next?

Alexey Malashenko — Thu, 11 Dec 2014 10:30:26 +0000

The terrorist attack that shook Grozny during the night of December 4 has put in question the authorities’ ability to control the situation in the North Caucasus, even in the seemingly stable Chechen Republic.

The Grozny Attacks and Russia’s Relationship with the West

Maxim Suchkov — Fri, 05 Dec 2014 10:01:28 +0000

One of the most important consequences of the dramatic violence in Grozny may be the impact it has on Russia-Western relations. Amidst a stand-off with the West over Ukraine, the Kremlin may interpret this terrorist acts as “Western attempts to fuel instability inside Russia.”

Winners and Losers in the Black Sea Gas Game

Thomas de Waal — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 10:50:28 +0000

Calling time on the South Stream pipeline project in Ankara, Vladimir Putin tried to spin it as a win nonetheless, by announcing a new Black Sea pipeline to Turkey instead. If it ever comes to fruition, the new Russian-Turkish gas project could be a competitor to Azerbaijan gas ambitions.

What Do You Expect From Vladimir Putin’s Visit to Turkey?

Memduh Karakullukçu, Dmitri Trenin, Ümit Pamir, Adnan Vatansever, Pavel Shlykov — Mon, 01 Dec 2014 11:42:33 +0000

In view of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Turkey, Eurasia Outlook asked a few of the authors of the recent report on Russian-Turkish cooperation what to expect from this visit.

Abkhazia: Deeper With Russia

Thomas de Waal — Thu, 20 Nov 2014 09:43:23 +0000

With Russia—for better or worse. That is the message society in Abkhazia is receiving now that a new Abkhaz-Russian treaty has been drafted which could be signed as early as next week.

Nagorno-Karabakh: Helicopter Downing Threatens Shaky Truce

Thomas de Waal — Thu, 13 Nov 2014 18:51:13 +0000

The shooting down of an Armenian helicopter on the ceasefire line of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone is the worst incident of its kind in over 20 years.