<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/"><channel><title><![CDATA[caseyschorr.com]]></title><description><![CDATA[Field notes on building a post-exit portfolio around risk parity.]]></description><link>https://www.caseyschorr.com/</link><image><url>https://www.caseyschorr.com/favicon.png</url><title>caseyschorr.com</title><link>https://www.caseyschorr.com/</link></image><generator>Ghost 6.44</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:51:48 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.caseyschorr.com/notes/rss/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><ttl>60</ttl><item><title><![CDATA[Why I built a risk parity portfolio after selling my business]]></title><description><![CDATA[The standard answer protected the money but not the life the exit was supposed to make possible.]]></description><link>https://www.caseyschorr.com/notes/risk-parity-after-selling-my-business/</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6a18bc82fcd1ba0001e4186e</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Casey Schorr]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20:53:00 GMT</pubDate><media:content url="https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/2026/05/risk-parity-after-selling-my-business-feature.png" medium="image"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<img src="https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/2026/05/risk-parity-after-selling-my-business-feature.png" alt="Why I built a risk parity portfolio after selling my business"><p>A few days before Christmas 2021, a few minutes before the wire cutoff, the money hit my checking account.</p><p>For a moment, it felt unreal. I had sold my company. A seven-figure balance was sitting there, visible on a screen, after years of building a business that had been the center of my adult life.</p><p>And then reality sank in.</p><p>I had traded a living, breathing money machine for a static pile of cash.</p><p>No more salary from the thing I had built. No more distributions. No operating business throwing off cash. What I had instead were the proceeds from the sale, and the question I had not fully understood until the wire landed:</p><p>Could this money support the life I had sold the company to make possible?</p><p>The exit was supposed to buy flexibility. Time with my family. Space to recover from the startup years. Room to think. The mountain house we had kept dreaming about. Maybe a different relationship to work entirely.</p><p>But the money was also what kept that flexibility alive. If I managed it badly, the freedom could disappear.</p><p>So the new job became clear: don&apos;t screw this up.</p><p>Money was not the point. But it was now the foundation under everything I wanted the exit to make possible.</p><h2 id="the-standard-answer-did-not-fit">The standard answer did not fit</h2><p>The first place I turned was the investing philosophy I already trusted. I had been a&#xA0;<a href="https://bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started?ref=caseyschorr.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">Boglehead</a>&#xA0;for years: low-cost index funds, broad diversification, buy and hold, do not try to outsmart the market. It is a simple, disciplined philosophy, and for a long accumulation period it still makes a lot of sense.</p><p>But my situation had changed.</p><p>I was no longer steadily adding money from a paycheck. I was trying to understand whether a finite portfolio could support a family for decades, starting much earlier than traditional retirement.</p><p>I talked to traditional advisors. I looked at robo-advisors. I considered stock picking and angel investing, then remembered that turning my portfolio into another full-time job was the opposite of freedom.</p><p>Everywhere I looked, the answer was the same:</p><p>You are younger than a normal retiree, so be extra conservative: plan to withdraw something like 2.5% to 3% a year.</p><p>That answer was probably responsible. It was also depressing.</p><p>At 3%, the math felt safe, but our life would get smaller than the one I thought the exit had made possible. It was the difference between one of us stepping back and both of us having real room to breathe. It was the difference between talking about the mountain house and actually building it.</p><p>I had not sold the company just to preserve a cautious version of our life. I wanted a financial base that could support more freedom, not just less risk.</p><p>So I kept looking.</p><h2 id="finding-risk-parity">Finding risk parity</h2><p>I found the first real clue in a very internet way: scrolling through r/financialindependence, r/fatFIRE, and Bogleheads threads, trying to figure out whether the standard answer was really the only sane option.</p><p>That is where I found the now-famous&#xA0;<a href="https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=272007&amp;ref=caseyschorr.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hedgefundie thread</a>.</p><p>My first reaction: the implementation looked too aggressive for me. Leveraged ETFs, a fragile structure, and a level of volatility I did not want anywhere near the money my family depended on.</p><p>But the underlying idea stuck.</p><p>He was not just asking, &quot;How much money should I put in stocks and bonds?&quot;</p><p>He was asking, &quot;How much risk is each part of the portfolio contributing?&quot;</p><p>A traditional 60/40 portfolio looks balanced because 60% of the dollars are in stocks and 40% are in bonds. But dollars are not the same thing as risk. Stocks are volatile enough that a 60/40 portfolio can get something like 85%-90% of its total risk from equities.&#xA0;<a href="https://www.aqr.com/insights/perspectives/risk-parity-is-even-better-than-we-thought?ref=caseyschorr.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">AQR puts the figure at 85% or more</a>, and Bridgewater&apos;s paper makes the same basic point about conventional portfolios at roughly 90%.</p><p>So the stock side does not merely drive &quot;most&quot; of the ride. It dominates it. You can call that balanced by dollars. It is not really balanced by risk.</p><figure class="kg-card kg-image-card"><img src="https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/2026/05/60-40-balanced-dollars-not-risk.jpg" class="kg-image" alt="Why I built a risk parity portfolio after selling my business" loading="lazy" width="1200" height="760" srcset="https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/size/w600/2026/05/60-40-balanced-dollars-not-risk.jpg 600w, https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/size/w1000/2026/05/60-40-balanced-dollars-not-risk.jpg 1000w, https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/2026/05/60-40-balanced-dollars-not-risk.jpg 1200w" sizes="(min-width: 720px) 720px"></figure><p>I wanted to know whether <a href="https://www.caseyschorr.com/definitions/risk-parity/" rel="noreferrer">risk parity</a> was just a clever forum idea or something more durable. Eventually I found Bridgewater&apos;s paper, <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Risk-Parity-is-About-Balance/5e7aea8f829d1da47aa2abc7c38daf5a2d6e34c6?ref=caseyschorr.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">Risk parity is about balance</a>.</p><p>Bridgewater was not writing about a clever trade. It was describing a portfolio construction framework with a real institutional history. Pensions, endowments, AQR, PanAgora: serious investors had spent decades working on this problem.</p><p>That did not mean it belonged in my portfolio. But it changed the question. I was no longer asking, &quot;Are people on the internet taking too much risk?&quot; I was asking, &quot;Can an institutional idea like this be adapted carefully enough to support a family portfolio?&quot;</p><p>The basic idea is to build around economic environments instead of ticker symbols:</p><ul><li>Stocks tend to do well when growth is strong.</li><li>Bonds can help when growth slows or investors are looking for safety.</li><li>Trend-following funds are the wildcard: they try to ride big shifts from one environment to another, whether those moves are up or down.</li></ul><p>The 2022 inflation shock showed me why trend following mattered. In a year when stocks and bonds both struggled, <a href="https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/White-Papers/Trend-Following-Why-Now-A-Macro-Perspective?ref=caseyschorr.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">AQR noted</a> the SG Trend Index was up 36% through September while a global 60/40 portfolio was down 20%. It was doing something meaningfully different from the stock-and-bond portfolio I already understood.</p><p>The goal is not to predict the next environment. It is to own pieces that can work for different reasons, at different times.</p><figure class="kg-card kg-image-card"><img src="https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/2026/05/risk-parity-balanced-risk.jpg" class="kg-image" alt="Why I built a risk parity portfolio after selling my business" loading="lazy" width="1200" height="760" srcset="https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/size/w600/2026/05/risk-parity-balanced-risk.jpg 600w, https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/size/w1000/2026/05/risk-parity-balanced-risk.jpg 1000w, https://storage.ghost.io/c/1e/1d/1e1de656-732d-4365-84f0-12ef40551a87/content/images/2026/05/risk-parity-balanced-risk.jpg 1200w" sizes="(min-width: 720px) 720px"></figure><p>The biggest danger is not simply a bad year. It is a bad sequence: large losses early, withdrawals coming out anyway, and not enough time for the portfolio to recover. That is what retirement planners call sequence-of-returns risk.</p><p>If a portfolio could make the worst drawdowns less severe, it might support a higher withdrawal rate than a traditional stock-heavy portfolio, even if the long-run returns were not dramatically higher.</p><p>That was what I needed to test.</p><h2 id="a-different-kind-of-leverage">A different kind of leverage</h2><p>A traditional stock-and-bond portfolio gives you one blunt lever.</p><p>If you want less risk, you hold fewer stocks. But then expected returns fall, and the amount you can safely withdraw falls with them.</p><p>If you want more return, you hold more stocks. But then drawdowns get bigger, and the portfolio becomes more vulnerable if the bad years show up right after you start withdrawing.</p><p>Either way, the real constraint is not just average return. It is the relationship between return, volatility, drawdowns, and withdrawals.</p><p>Risk parity offers another path.</p><p>First, build a portfolio that is more balanced across economic conditions. If that base is genuinely smoother, modest leverage can bring return potential back up.</p><p>That sounds dangerous if you hear only the word &quot;leverage.&quot; It can be dangerous. Leverage can turn a mistake into a disaster.</p><p>But applying leverage to a diversified base is different from making a stock-heavy portfolio even more stock-heavy. You are trying to amplify something steadier, not concentrate harder into one source of risk.</p><p>In my case, the tool that made this possible was Treasury futures.</p><p>Treasury futures are not for beginners. They create real leverage, require collateral, and can produce uncomfortable losses even when the overall portfolio is behaving as intended.</p><p>But they also let a portfolio get meaningful Treasury exposure without tying up all the capital required to buy bonds outright. When I checked the margin requirement in my own taxable Interactive Brokers account, about $15,000 of required margin could control roughly $1 million of notional exposure.</p><p>The exact figure is less important than the order of magnitude: a relatively small amount of collateral can control a much larger position. That is the appeal, and also the danger.</p><p>Used carefully, Treasury futures make room for the other pieces of the system: equities and trend following.</p><p>Interesting was not enough. I needed to know whether the system was robust enough to trust with my family&apos;s financial foundation.</p><h2 id="i-tested-it-before-i-trusted-it">I tested it before I trusted it</h2><p>My wife asked the important questions:</p><blockquote>Why is this not what everyone does?</blockquote><blockquote>What if you are wrong?</blockquote><p>I also had to ask whether I was seeing something real or just turning the portfolio into another problem to solve.</p><p>So we booked a consultation with Rick Ferri, a fee-only advisor and longtime Boglehead. I expected him to dismiss the whole thing as unnecessary complexity.</p><p>He did not. After looking at our financial situation and my explanation of risk parity, he told us he had explored strategies like this when he was younger. The logic could work. The tradeoff was that it would be more complex to manage than a simple three-fund portfolio.</p><p>That did not settle the question for either of us. But it moved the idea one step away from &quot;this is reckless&quot; and closer to &quot;this might be real, if I could build and manage it carefully.&quot;</p><p>From there I treated the portfolio like a system I had to build and test: sanity check, emotional test, full scale.</p><p>First came the model.</p><p>I rebuilt backtests, compared traditional allocations to risk parity-style portfolios, and paid special attention to bad-luck scenarios. I cared less about the average case and more about the bad-luck case: what happens if the first decade is ugly?</p><p>In my modeling, the important difference was not that risk parity magically crushed everything in good times. It was that the bad cases looked less bad, and not by a rounding error.</p><p>In one Monte Carlo setup in Portfolio Visualizer, I looked at the 10th-percentile outcome: the bad-luck version where returns show up in an ugly order. In that scenario, the modeled withdrawal rate moved from roughly 3.7% for a traditional 60/40 to roughly 5.5% for the risk parity-style version.</p><p>I would not treat those numbers as gospel, but the gap was large enough to matter for the question I actually cared about: how much could we withdraw without letting one bad sequence break the plan?</p><p>Then came the emotional test.</p><p>A spreadsheet was one kind of test. Watching real money move in real time was another. For the emotional test, I worked up to about $1 million, adding gradually and watching how the pieces behaved together.</p><p>The portfolio I settled into included:</p><ul><li>US equities, including large cap and small cap value exposure.</li><li>International equities, including a small-cap emerging markets tilt.</li><li>Treasury futures for leveraged bond exposure.</li><li>Commodity trend-following funds as a third major return stream.</li><li>A 10% cash reserve as an operational guardrail.</li></ul><p>I kept iterating. I looked for the conditions that would make the whole thing fail. Over time, the question shifted from whether the system was perfect to whether I understood it well enough to live with it.</p><p>Eventually, I scaled the strategy across my taxable portfolio.</p><p>I did not have certainty. I had enough understanding to choose it over the standard answer.</p><h2 id="what-it-feels-like-to-live-with">What it feels like to live with</h2><p>In late 2024, I left the company that bought my startup. Since then, the portfolio has not been an abstract planning problem. It has been part of how our household actually works.</p><p>I have no earned income right now, so this is not theory.</p><p>That changes my relationship to every red number.</p><p>The strange thing about a diversified portfolio is that something almost always looks wrong.</p><p>When stocks are ripping higher, the diversifiers can look like dead weight. When stocks fall, Treasury futures or trend-following funds may be the only reason the whole thing is not worse. When trend-following funds are struggling, it is easy to wonder why you own them at all.</p><p>The system only makes sense at the portfolio level, but brokerage screens are designed to make you stare at individual positions.</p><p>That is psychologically hard.</p><p>During the spring 2025 tariff-driven market selloff, my portfolio did what I hoped it would do. The S&amp;P 500 fell&#xA0;<a href="https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/6/bad-breadth-concerns-rise-as-sp-500-set-to-recover-tarifftriggered-losses-90308072?ref=caseyschorr.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">about 19% from its February high to its April low</a>. In my own tracking, my rough 60/40 benchmark was down about 13% peak to trough. My portfolio was down roughly 8%.</p><p>The difference was real. It still did not feel good.</p><p>Parts of the portfolio were still bleeding. Individual positions were down enough to set off every alarm in my head. Sell the losers. Move into what was working. Fix it.</p><p>But the whole point of the system is that different pieces take turns looking bad.</p><p>That is not a bug. It is the feature.</p><p>Instead of tinkering with the allocation, I built a tax-loss harvesting spreadsheet and used the losses that were already there. Later, those losses gave me room to rebalance out of positions that had run up without taking the full tax hit.</p><p>The portfolio gave me something better than a prediction. It gave me a rule-based way to act without pretending I knew what the market would do next.</p><p>I am not checking it all day. I am not trying to guess what the Fed will do. I am not waiting for someone else&apos;s forecast to tell me whether my family gets to live the way we want to live.</p><p>I understand what each piece is supposed to do, and I can evaluate the system against that job.</p><h2 id="the-question-is-still-freedom">The question is still freedom</h2><p>The obvious question is whether this works for the next 50 years.</p><p>I do not know.</p><p>No backtest can prove that. No advisor can guarantee it. No research paper can remove the fact that I am testing this in real time, with real money, under real life constraints.</p><p>But I know why I am doing it.</p><p>The standard advice was safe, but it asked me to accept a smaller life than the one the exit was supposed to make possible. A very conservative withdrawal rate may protect the pile of money, but it can also defeat the reason the money matters.</p><p>That is why the withdrawal-rate question is not abstract. A 3% life and a 6% life are not the same life. One is safety. The other, if the system can actually support it, is freedom.</p><p>For me, the question is not &quot;How do I maximize returns?&quot;</p><p>What I actually want to know is:</p><ul><li>Can I build a financial system stable enough to let me stop organizing my life around earning?</li><li>Can it create room for family, health, skiing, building, writing, and a slower kind of ambition?</li><li>Can it turn the exit from a number on a screen into actual freedom?</li></ul><p>I am writing this because I wish someone had handed me a way to think about this the day the wire hit.</p><p>I rarely saw this stage described plainly: somewhere between still working and retired, managing a finite sum, trying to buy back time without pretending money is the point.</p><p>That is why risk parity became more than an investment framework for me. It became one part of a personal lab: post-exit money, AI-native building, and the search for a life with more freedom and less operational drag.</p><p>The day the wire hit, I thought the hard part was over.</p><p>It was not.</p><p>The exit gave me the raw material. The portfolio is one of the systems I am building to turn that raw material into a life.</p><p>And that is the experiment I want to keep writing from.</p><p><em>This is a field note from my own post-exit portfolio work, not investment advice.</em></p><div class="kg-card kg-signup-card kg-width-regular " data-lexical-signup-form style="background-color: #F0F0F0; display: none;">
            
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