From my perspective there are 6 players in the battle to be Number 1, I’ll go through each one:

6. Nokia/Symbian – Wow, these guys have really lost there way.  10 years ago Nokia was the phone to have in Asia/Europe but now they are quickly losing market share.  Even more pressing for them is that their Symbian software is withering, no real programmer is programming for the platform. And in today’s environment it’s all about the apps that run on a phone. Symbian reminds me of the IBM OS/2 days – Big company, no new customers and zero apps.

5. Palm WebOS – Not even former Apple exec Jon Rubinstein, current CEO of Palm, can save them.  The OS is stunning and slick, but they don’t have a chance with some of the bigger players down the list.  They should just open source it and work with the smaller cellphone makers.

4. Windows Mobile – Bloated.

3. BlackBerry – About a year ago, I was singing the “BlackBerry will die in 18 months” song, but I’ve changed my tune.  BlackBerry seems to have really put the pedal to the metal and appears to be doing well. I recently had the chance to configure a new BlackBerry for email and it took me 5 minutes, compare that to the first BlackBerry I bought 5 years ago where it took me 30 minutes and my current iPhone which takes about 7 minutes.  Kudos to the kids from Canada…welcome to North America.

2. Android – 2009 was supposed to be the year of the Android, that didn’t really pan out. The recently launched Motorola DROID phone is a customized version of Android and is said to be making waves. I expect a ton of new phones from Samsung, LG and HTC to flood the market and bring the prices down, which are currently hovering around USD 400-500 for a phone. The Android Marketplace has not taken off but that’s also driven by the fact that not many Android phones are in the hands of the consumer. 2010 seems to be the year for the Google Gang.

1. Apple iPhone – Beyond being an Apple fan there are some real business justifications for it being the king of the OS. First, they completely changed the game with the app store, this is not only a way to keep people on the iPhone platform but also another revenue stream for them – 30% to Apple and 70% for the developer.  Symbian, BlackBerry and Windows have been around for years and not one of them thought about offering a store but once Apple announced, they all announced their intentions.  Where Apple excels is that developers not only create programs for the iPhone but also the iPod touch (I believe over 80 million devices combined). Since both devices have the same screen size and resolution the user experience is the same and saves on development costs. Whereas, if you program for the Symbian/BlackBerry/Windows/Android every device is different – screen size, resolution, physical keyboard, etc…which leads to long development timeframes. The iPhone OS still has a way to go in terms of features but is quickly gaining and in the meantime grabbing hugh chucks of the market share.

Once again, with all these options the consumer is the real winner and should lead to lower prices and more features in the future.

The latest building to go on sale is Sky Forest. The marketing info talks about 10,000 to 22,000 sq/ft for either a duplex or triplex.  I called and asked about pricing, it starts at Rs. 20,000 a sq/ft plus Rs. 50 per floor rise and Rs. 1000 sq/ft for a Worli view. So the math for a 30th floor 10,000 sq/ft pad is:

Base price = Rs. 20,000
Floor rise @ Rs. 50 x 30 = Rs. 1,500
Worli view = Rs. 1,000
Total 22,500 x 10,000 = Rs. 22.5 CR (approx USD 4.7 million)

The kicker is that the 10,000 sq/ft is really super built-up area, whereas the livable carpet area is more like 4,430 sq/ft. Why such a hugh difference? That’s because of the crazy Bombay real estate math that includes things like the lobby and other common areas of a building and quoted as “super built-up”, exceptionally stupid I must say.

So the price is really more like Rs. 45,000 sq/ft or around USD 1,000 which is quite spendy.

I tried the service for about 5 minutes and soon realized how much it sucks…for me. I really don’t want to get over 100 SMS tweets via my phone.  I was thinking WTF, what was Twitter and Airtel thinking when they struck this partnership, but then it dawned on me that this is India.  And when something is free, Indian’s will figure out a way to use it or monetize it.

The first use of this service would be around stock picks. Since people sign-up for a stock picking service to receive updates this would be an ideal use and free for the person receiving the pick. This is one instance and I’m sure we’ll see many more in the coming months.

The official Twitter @ Airtel site. Doesn’t have much info, which is par for the course for most product launches involving an Indian company.

So what is Mint?  Mint takes your personal financial data and makes recommendations on your spending habits, investments, insurance, etc… Mint makes money via the service providers who want to sell products to the Mint audience. Simple and Sweet.

To get access to all that financial data they went to a single provider – Yodlee.com  and then enticed users by slapping an amazingly simple user interface on the data.

It’s a remarkable story and exit for CEO Aaron Patzer. He recently talked about the journey, the video is below and I would highly recommend viewing the whole thing.  I love his quote (about 5 minutes into the clip) about outsourcing the development to oDesk or India…”dead wrong.” The last 3 1/2 minutes are also really good.

In the past I’ve run for fun, but this time I wanted to work towards a certain time.  So I’m going on record with my goals and looking to achieve them.

My Goals:

1. Finish the half in under 2 hours.  My previous times for the Bombay half-marathon were 2:15 (2006), 2:15 (2008) and 2:07 (2009). In order to achieve my goal I need to run 9:10 min/mile (5:41 min/km).
2. 100 push-ups in one stretch by January 17
3. Drop to 176 lbs. (80 kg)

Currently:

1. My pace is around 9:41 min/mile (6:01 min/km)
2. 64 push-ups
3. 187 lbs. (85 kg). This time a year ago, I was around 200 lbs. Due to yoga, diet and nutritional changes I was able to shed the pounds.  I’ve been able to maintain it for a year and reached a plateau at 184 lbs. and need to break through it.

Its been a busy week in Indian telecommunications and my frustration with the government grows. After the Indian general elections in May, the press had a love fest with the new government saying everything would change and the economy would be back on track.  And one of the first things to get fast tracked would be the 3G auction. News trickled in this week that the much awaited 3G auction for high speed mobile data services would be delayed yet again.

For me the 3G auction should be one of the easiest policies to implement and to show the Congress Government has indeed arrived and changing the way business is done.  There are no slums to move nor environmental impact surveys to conduct.  The government is acting like most stock markets investors, they want to see those previous all-time highs and then auction off the spectrum. In the meantime, companies are losing revenue and the government is losing out on taxes. It all comes down to money, who gets what and how much – hence the title of the post.

All is not lost for the consumer, this week the government said they wanted to look at implementing per second billing for all carriers as opposed to the current per minute billing.  This all came about when Tata DOCOMO launched their service with per second billing. I have a feeling it will happen because Reliance Mobile launched their “Simply Reliance” plan which offers 50 paise (USD 1 penny) per minute for local, long distance and SMS’s.  Since Reliance is pretty well connected to the government, they probably have better insight to what policies will get implemented and threw down the pricing gauntlet.  The “Simply Reliance” plans reminds me of the AT&T Digital One Rate launched in 1998, that really was the game changer for the US mobile market by eliminating “roaming” charges.

Sequoia Capital is one of the oldest and most well connected venture capital firms in the world, they have invested in companies like Atari, Cisco, Google, LinkedIn and PayPal to name a few. It was started by Don Valentine who had the balls to invest in Cisco Systems back in December 1987, which was just weeks AFTER the October 1987 stock market crash.

Back to the low income housing project. Sequoia Capital is investing in Tata Housing which has a project outside of Bombay in Boisar. The flats will most likely sell for between USD 8,000 to 10,000. So why would Sequoia get involved? I’m betting there are a couple reasons:

1. Sequoia Capital is first and foremost a technology VC firm and unfortunately the number of technology deals that are in play in India is a fraction of what they see on a global scale.  Which means instead of funding entrepreneurs they have to be entrepreneurial themselves.

2. There is a HUGH potential to streamline the construction industry in India.  I’m guessing Sequoia will try and see if they can inject some technology into the process and see how it scales with Tata Housing.  If it works, then they can target the entire industry and get a piece of the action.   I’ve seen people bring foreign building products to India which are priced 25-50% more then a local product and that just won’t work. You need to innovate within India so you can understand the cost constrains and get the locals comfortable with the product.

If this works out, I would expect them to go after the agricultural space and drop some knowledge there as well.

Over the past week I stumbled across T.R. Reid a reporter for the Washington Post who released a new book last week titled “The Healing of America” .  I actually didn’t know about the book, I happened to watch a PBS Frontline special and a couple of days ago listened to an NPR podcast, both chronicling the various health care systems from around the world…both were from Reid. I’m assuming the book expands on his travels and adds more depth to what he saw. If you want to get up to speed on the health care debate I would take a look at the PBS and NPR specials.

Reid outlines 4 basic systems of health care around the world:
1. Completely government run healthcare (aka socialized medicine) – Britain is the prime example. Everyone is covered.
2. Private docs/hospitals and private payments – France & Germany. Everyone is covered.
3. Private docs/hospitals and public payments – Canada. Everyone is covered.
4. Out of pocket (I like to call it out of luck) – US and many 3rd world countries. If you don’t have the money you are sh#@ out of luck.

And, all 4 systems are already running in the US:
1. Completely government run healthcare (aka socialized medicine) – Native Americans and Vet’s
2. Private docs/hospitals and private payments – Large companies
3. Private docs/hospitals and public payments – Medicare
4. Out of pocket – Millions of Americans

In the US, health care is not viewed as a way to help people but a for-profit endeavor and I believe that’s the crux of the matter. Pharma research, clinical trials, medical devices, etc…all target the US market because that’s where the big money is. There is no magic bullet to this situation and until we take out the hugh cost structure and margins associated with health care, this problem will not get solved.

However, the magic bullet might be found in India. While Reid traveled all over the world for his book he also had a shoulder problem and wanted to find out what the diagnoses would be in each country. He finally settled on an ayurvedic solution from India that worked.

Update: Another article I came across this past weekend offers a unique solution – How American Health Care Killed My Father.

On a more local level, the latest wireless carrier to enter the fierce Bombay market is Tata DOCOMO. It’s a joint venture between the largest industrial group in India – The Tata Group and Japan’s NTT DOCOMO. This will be Tata’s second wireless network in Bombay, they have an existing CDMA network while the new venture is based on GSM.

The question arises does Bombay need yet another mobile carrier? Apparently, the Tata’s feel their is space for one more carrier. With the latest entrant we now have 9 carriers: Aircel, Airtel, BPL, Idea, MTNL, Reliance, Tata (CDMA), Tata (GSM) and Vodafone. The Virgin Mobile brand in Bombay is just reselling the Tata (CDMA) service, almost like an Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO).

So what’s the current selling point for Tata DOCOMO – per second billing and a 3G ready network.  That’s not enough of an offer to swing me over as a customer, but if number portability comes into play that’s another story.  You could see many people switch over just for the per second billing feature, remember the average bill in India is USD 4 per month…so seconds count. Of course, Airtel and Vodafone could just turn that feature on as well.

Let’s first start with the product – air travel.  It’s no secret the airline industry went through a massive airplane buying and airport construction binge since 2005.  With the economic environment we are all feeling the after effects, carriers are delaying deliveries of new planes, newly constructed airports are jacking up their user development fee (UDF) and the aviation turbine fuel (ATF) surcharge is killing everyone’s balance sheet.  The UDF is a catch-22, with the decline in traffic, airports want to charge more to makeup for the short fall but this pushes away consumers. With the drop in tax collection, the government needs money as well and hence the ATF is a way to recover some of that tax money. This puts the airline in a painful spot, Air India is begging for a government bailout of USD 2-3 billion to help alleviate the situation.  Secretly, the private carriers would love a bailout as well, but I doubt Praful Patel, Minister of Aviation, can save face with the public if he bails out Kingfisher or Jet Airways.

One of the ways the airlines have dealt with this situation is to cut the commissions paid to travel agents. This recently led to many travel agents refusing to book flights for certain carriers since it wasn’t worth their effort. The OTA’s that have high fixed costs and shallow pockets are going to face the music very soon.  Most OTA’s started during this binge when the number of passengers traveling in India looked like a hockey stick (J curve) and hence all the VC money thrown at them. Some of the OTA’s have looked at bus and train travel which have very small margins but potentially a hugh number of travelers.  But, most of those travelers are not connected to the internet. How many OTA’s will exist in their current avatar 18 months from now? It’s anyones guess.

Random Fact: TravelGuru was started in 2006 by Ashwin Damera and Ganesh Rengaswamy, they both attended Harvard Business School (HBS). Travelguru was selected in 2005 as the Harvard Business Plan Contest winner.