http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast Global Prosperity Wonkcast Tue, 29 May 2012 20:16:33 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 Global Prosperity Wonkcast Global Prosperity Wonkcast no Global Prosperity Wonkcast http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/http://www.cgdev.org/images/FinalCGD_logo.JPG cgdev/global_prosperity_wonkcasthttp://feedburner.google.com http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/29/rethinking-monetary-liliana-rojas-suarez/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/29/rethinking-monetary-liliana-rojas-suarez/#comments Tue, 29 May 2012 16:55:48 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1222 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/29/rethinking-monetary-liliana-rojas-suarez/feed/ 0 Capital Flows/Financial Crisis,Finance,Latin America On May 22nd, members of the Latin American Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (CLAAF) convened at CGD to discuss some of the most pressing fiscal and monetary issues affecting Latin American economies. The result of the committee’s two-and-a-half... (http://www.cgdev.org/files/2718_image_lrs.jpg)On May 22nd, members of the Latin American Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (CLAAF) convened at CGD to discuss some of the most pressing fiscal and monetary issues affecting Latin American economies.... Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 22:54 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/21/the-climate-change-vulnerability-index-david-wheeler-2/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/21/the-climate-change-vulnerability-index-david-wheeler-2/#comments Mon, 21 May 2012 21:32:29 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1218 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/21/the-climate-change-vulnerability-index-david-wheeler-2/feed/ 0 Climate Change,Climate Vulnerability Index This Wonkcast was originally recorded in April 2011. - Rapid climate change is upon us, and governments, multilateral organizations, and development agencies are preparing to dole out billions of dollars in adaptation assistance. Nevertheless, (http://www.cgdev.org/userfiles/image/staff-page/11584.png)This Wonkcast was originally recorded in April 2011. Rapid climate change is upon us, and governments, multilateral organizations, and development agencies are preparing to dole out billions of dollars in adaptation assistance. Nevertheless, little research has gone into calculating which countries are most vulnerable to global warming. On this Wonkcast, I’m joined by David Wheeler, senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, who created an index for determining which countries should be prioritized when the money starts to flow. His paper, “Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change: Implications for Adaptation Assistance (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1424759)”, provides an index for comparison of cross-country vulnerability to some of the most extreme climate threats. An accompanying map (http://www.cgdev.org/section/topics/climate_change/mapping_the_impacts_of_climate_change) makes it easy to see which countries will be hit hardest. Related Content * Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change (Working Paper) (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1424759/) * Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change (Data Set) (//www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1424986) * Mapping the Impacts of Climate Change (http://www.cgdev.org/section/topics/climate_change/mapping_the_impacts_of_climate_change) We start by discussing three horses of the climate apocalypse: weather-related disasters, rising seas, and the loss of agricultural productivity. Drawing on the latest climate models, David’s index shows where these climate-related disasters are most likely to occur, and the likelihood that an individual in each country would be affected. This index shows the future to be grim in many places. China and India are severely vulnerable to weather-related disasters. Small island states will suffer from rising sea levels and storm surges. Finally, rising temperatures threaten agricultural productivity, the foundation of growth in developing countries. Some countries, like Bangladesh, get hit with a triple whammy. “When you think about how critical it is to have agricultural development in developing countries and you look ahead to anticipated productivity losses, you can’t help but think we really need to act as quickly as possible,” says David. “It’s sobering to think of the hundreds of millions of people who will be affected by these declines.” We end by discussing the power of the index. David’s catalogue includes filters to measure which countries are best able to cope with climate change or implement adaptation projects. This is a helpful tool for donors looking to make assistance more effective and in line with their giving priorities. Ultimately David tells me he hopes the index will serve as a wake-up call to the world. “I decided to design it uniformly for 233 countries because I thought it was much better to emphasize the commonality of the danger. We’re all in this together and we’re all going to be damaged. It’s important for us all to be aware of that.” Listen to the Wonkcast to hear more on climate vulnerability. My thanks to Will McKitterick for his production assistance on the Wonkcast recording and for assistance in drafting this blog post. If you have iTunes, you can subscribe to get new episodes delivered straight to your computer every week. Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 22:17 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/15/haiti-where-has-all-the-money-gone-vijaya-ramachandran-and-julie-walz/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/15/haiti-where-has-all-the-money-gone-vijaya-ramachandran-and-julie-walz/#comments Tue, 15 May 2012 17:51:22 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1210 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/15/haiti-where-has-all-the-money-gone-vijaya-ramachandran-and-julie-walz/feed/ 0 Aid Effectiveness,Haiti,USAID Since the 2010 earthquake, $6 billion has been disbursed in official aid to help the people of Haiti. Nearly all of it has gone to intermediaries such as international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and private contractors. (http://www.cgdev.org/userfiles/image/expert phtotos/Vijaya Ramachandran.jpg)Since the 2010 earthquake, $6 billion has been disbursed in official aid to help the people of Haiti. Nearly all of it has gone to intermediaries such as international non-gov... Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 21:34 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/08/leapfrogging-technology-the-case-for-biometrics-alan-gelb-3/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/08/leapfrogging-technology-the-case-for-biometrics-alan-gelb-3/#comments Tue, 08 May 2012 14:24:00 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1201 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/08/leapfrogging-technology-the-case-for-biometrics-alan-gelb-3/feed/ 0 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/01/latin-american-lessons-from-the-2008-financial-crisis-%e2%80%93-liliana-rojas-suarez-2/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/01/latin-american-lessons-from-the-2008-financial-crisis-%e2%80%93-liliana-rojas-suarez-2/#comments Tue, 01 May 2012 13:34:03 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1196 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/05/01/latin-american-lessons-from-the-2008-financial-crisis-%e2%80%93-liliana-rojas-suarez-2/feed/ 0 financial crisis Conventional wisdom has it that when the United States catches a cold, Latin America gets pneumonia. But when the United States caught financial pneumonia in 2008, Latin America escaped with little more than a cold. What’s changed? (http://www.cgdev.org/layout/timthumb.php?src=/files/2718_image_lrs.jpg&w=170&h=170&zc=1)Conventional wisdom has it that when the United States catches a cold, Latin America gets pneumonia. But when the United States caught financial pneumonia in 2008, Latin America escaped with little more than a cold. What’s changed? In this week’s Wonkcast, CGD senior fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez explains why Latin America was mostly successful in coping with the fallout from the 2008 global financial crisis and she introduces a new methodology for predicting how countries will fare in the next global financial crisis. Our conversation draws on her new working paper, Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1425986/), written jointly with Carlos Montoro of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The link between financial sector health and development can often seem abstract compared to issues such as trade, jobs, or childhood vaccinations. Regardless, finance is essential for development, explains Liliana. “The truth of the matter is, there is not a single transaction that we undertake that does not involve finance,” she says. “Without finance, there is simply no development. Taking aside wars and major diseases, financial crises kill more people than anything else in the world.” Liliana and Carlos Montoro undertook a study at BIS which examines how countries stood financially in 2007, to see if key indicators would predict how they fared in the 2008 crisis. The study weighed several macroeconomic indicators such as the amount of debt a country owes to the rest of the world and the amount of its national reserves. A third variable, the level of a country’s currency mismatch, has a large impact on a country’s ability to deal with a financial crisis, explains Liliana. “For example, the if a Latin American government borrows U.S. dollars to build a road, and the government then collects taxes in the local currency” to repay the loan, says Liliana. “But, say the crisis hits and the local currency loses value. How is the government going to pay back the loan if the government doesn’t have enough U.S. dollars accumulated as foreign exchange reserves? So if you have a big currency mismatch, you’re going to be more vulnerable.” Most Latin American countries learned this lesson from previous crises and, as a result, have significantly reduced currency mismatches as well as accumulated large amounts of foreign currency reserves. The indicators predicted that Asian countries would fare the best – and they did. China, Taiwan, Korea, and the Philippines came out on top. Latin America followed closely behind, and emerging Europe fared the worst. Liliana explains that countries such as Latvia and Estonia were in a bad position relative to their currency mismatch. These countries borrowed large amounts of Euros prior to the crisis, and then saw their currency depreciate after the crisis – causing them to suffer the most. I ask Liliana to what extent culture comes into play in these results. For example, it seems to me that there’s a quality in Asian economic management that anticipates hardship and places strong emphasis on being prudent. Liliana says there’s something to my theory, but you can only protect yourself against what you see coming. For example, currency mismatches played a large role during the East Asian crisis of 1997. Asian and Latin American countries learned from this period, but Eastern Europe did not. At the end of the Wonkcast, I ask Liliana if her indicators could predict what will happen if the situation in Greece worsens and the world suffers another global financial shock. Liliana says yes, and predicts how countries will fare, based on her new index. “We looked at where countries were at the end of 2011 and did the same experiment,” says Liliana. Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 22:57 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/23/u-s-support-for-sustainable-energy-for-all%e2%80%94nigel-purvis/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/23/u-s-support-for-sustainable-energy-for-all%e2%80%94nigel-purvis/#comments Mon, 23 Apr 2012 19:47:07 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1181 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/23/u-s-support-for-sustainable-energy-for-all%e2%80%94nigel-purvis/feed/ 1 Climate Change - My guest on this week’s Wonkcast is Nigel Purvis, CEO of Climate Advisors, a visiting senior associate at CGD, and the co-author of a new CGD report “Energizing Rio+20: How the United States Can Promote Sustainable Energy for All at the 201... (http://www.cgdev.org/files/1425909_image_Nigel_Purvis_Outdoor_Photo.JPG) My guest on this week’s Wonkcast is Nigel Purvis (http://www.cgdev.org/content/expert/detail/1425909), CEO of Climate Advisors, a visiting senior associate at CGD, and the co-author of a new CGD report “Energizing Rio+20: How the United States Can Promote Sustainable Energy for All at the 2012 Earth Summit (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1426110/).” We spoke last Friday following the launch of the report at a CGD event (http://www.cgdev.org/content/calendar/detail/1426098/) that concluded with a keynote address by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Related Content * Press Release (http://www.cgdev.org/content/article/detail/1426132/) * Delivering Sustainable Energy for All: Opportunities at Rio+20 event page (http://www.cgdev.org/content/calendar/detail/1426098/) * Photos from Delivering Sustainable Energy for All: Opportunities at Rio+20 event (http://www.flickr.com/photos/cgdev/sets/72157629526838298) “The Secretary-General spoke convincingly and from the heart about his experience growing up in Korea, having to study by kerosene light, using candles only when they could afford them,” Nigel tells me. “It’s clear that he understands, in a way that is unprecedented for a person in his position, the connection that energy has to solving development problems.” About 1.3 billion people, one-in-five people in the world, lack access to electricity, while another billion people have only intermittent access. Roughly 2.7 billion people, some 40 percent, lack access to clean cooking fuels. The UN’s Sustainable Energy for All (http://www.sustainableenergyforall.org/) campaign to address this unmet need in a way that is compatible with averting a climate catastrophe. The campaign will feature prominently in the a UN conference on sustainable development in Rio de Janerio on June 20–22 that will mark the 20th anniversary of the Rio Earth Summit, a milestone in international efforts to address environmental problems. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwoBKPAMQNE highlights from Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's remarks, compiled by the UN Foundation Nigel is hopeful that the sustainable energy for all approach will succeed where climate negotiations have not. “When we frame energy efficiency and renewable energy as part of the solution to energy poverty, it really speaks to developing countries,” he says. “They understand that this is not something that we're asking them to do for the globe, but something that they want to do for themselves to help their own people. And when we talk about renewable energy and expanding energy access we get developed countries excited…because it helps not only with poverty agenda but it helps with the climate agenda.” “That has catapulted the Secretary-General’s initiative into being the centerpiece of this upcoming conference.” The new CGD report, co-authored with Abigail Jones, director of research and policy at Climate Advisers, offers practical suggestions for ways that the United States can help to support these goals while also creating jobs at home and strengthening the U.S. economy. The United States is a leader both in climate friendly technologies and in large-scale project finance needed to rapidly deploy them, the report notes. Nigel points to the rapid spread of cell phones around the world, driven by consumer demand and private sector investment, as a model for rapid electrification. “We need to see the poor around the world who don't have access to energy as potential customers, as consumers,” he says. “These are people who want energy and who are willing to pay for it,” just as they  have found cell phones to be worth the expense. “It empowers them and connects them to the modern economy. It allows them to be far more productive.” Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 24:12 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/17/key-challenges-for-jim-kim-new-world-bank-president%e2%80%94nancy-birdsall/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/17/key-challenges-for-jim-kim-new-world-bank-president%e2%80%94nancy-birdsall/#comments Tue, 17 Apr 2012 19:56:17 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1172 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/17/key-challenges-for-jim-kim-new-world-bank-president%e2%80%94nancy-birdsall/feed/ 0 Fragile States,IDA,International Financial Institutions,World Bank - After an unprecedented competition, with three official nominees, the World Bank announced on Monday that the board had selected Jim Yong Kim, the Korean-born U.S. nominee, as the next president of the World Bank. (http://www.cgdev.org/files/483_image_birdsall170.jpg) After an unprecedented competition, with three official nominees, the World Bank announced on Monday that the board had selected Jim Yong Kim, the Korean-born U.S. nominee, as the next president of the World Bank. My guest on this week’s Wonkcast is CGD president Nancy Birdsall, who discusses why it matters who leads the bank and sets out key challenges for the incoming president. Why the World Bank and its President Matter Nancy, who previously was head of the World Bank’s policy research department and later served as executive vice president of the Inter-American Development Bank, says the World Bank’s president is uniquely situated to lead international thinking and action on global development. “The bank is the only development institution that works on a global level,” she says. “It provides a setting in which all nations at different levels of development can talk, learn from each other, argue, collaborate, fuss and hopefully move forward on the great development problems we face this century.” Nancy says that the recent leadership selection process was more open and competitive than ever before, though in the end it was less transparent than many had hoped. CGD invited all three nominees to speak about their vision or the bank at public events hosted jointly with The Washington Post. Jose Antonio Ocampo (http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2012/04/jose-antonio-ocampo-makes-his-case-to-be-president-of-the-world-bank.php), the former minister of finance of Colombia, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2012/04/okonjo-iweala-appeals-to-u-s-%E2%80%9Ccherished-values%E2%80%9D-in-selection-of-world-bank-president.php), minister of finance of Nigeria, both accepted; Kim declined. “I was initially surprised,” Nancy says of Kim’s decision not to participate. “Kim is charismatic and a good speaker. I think he would have been convincing and compelling in that kind of a forum. But I can empathize with the idea that he wanted to take the time to speak to as many of the major members of the bank as possible, and that meant traveling around to their capitals.” Challenges Facing Kim and the World Bank Nancy has written extensively (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/?topic=2666&type=&initiative=&expert=483&year) on how the World Bank must modernize to become a more effective contributor to development in the 21st century, work summed up in a recent blog post on Three Questions to Ask the Next President of the World Bank (http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2012/03/three-questions-to-ask-the-three-candidates-to-lead-the-world-bank.php). I ask her: what is the single biggest challenge facing Jim Kim and the bank as he takes leadership in June? “I think the biggest challenge is to work with the many members of the bank on how to set new directions,” says Nancy. “In particular, how to interact with the dynamic emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, and several others who are now in a position to have influence in the way the bank operates.” Related to this, she says, is the future of the International Development Association (IDA), the bank’s soft loan window for the world’s poorest countries. Nancy says that a big question for Jim Kim and the bank is what to do as many IDA countries graduate out of the program (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1424903) in the years ahead. Many countries that remain eligible for IDA will be weak and fragile states, often with ineffectual and corrupt governments. How the bank should try to help in these countries, the subject of a newly released CGD report (http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2012/04/a-challenge-for-jim-yong-kim-new-president-of-the-world-bank%E2%80%94what-to-do-in-fragile-states.php), will be yet another challenge for the new president. Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 22:11 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/10/the-challenge-of-scaling-up-proven-interventions-justin-sandefur/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/10/the-challenge-of-scaling-up-proven-interventions-justin-sandefur/#comments Tue, 10 Apr 2012 15:35:04 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1166 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/10/the-challenge-of-scaling-up-proven-interventions-justin-sandefur/feed/ 0 Africa,Education - My guest on this week’s Wonkcast is Justin Sandefur, a research fellow at CGD whose recent work has focused on education in Kenya. One study examines the returns of private schooling, while another looks at the effects of contract teachers on s... (http://www.cgdev.org/files/1424570_image_J_sandefur_170.jpg) My guest on this week’s Wonkcast is Justin Sandefur, a research fellow at CGD whose recent work has focused on education in Kenya. One study examines the returns of private schooling, while another looks at the effects of contract teachers on student test scores. The results of these studies highlight shortcomings in public education, including failures of accountability and a dense bureaucracy. Public vs Private Schools Justin tells me he first became involved in Africa while working in Tanzania on a household survey measuring poverty and agricultural statistics, as a government employee. His insights into how government works—or fails to work—have since shaped his research on schooling in Kenya. His CGD Working Paper, The High Return to Private Schooling in a Low-Income Country (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1425807/) (with coauthors Tessa Bold from Goethe University Frankfurt, Mwangi Kimenyi from the Brookings Institutions, and Germano Mwabu from the University of Nairobi) found that private schools in Kenya not only cost less than public schools, but produce better results. “We focused our time estimating the impact of private schooling on test scores and proving to ourselves that going to a private school increases your test scores,” says Justin. “When we shopped that idea around in Kenya no one was surprised. But people had a hard time believing is that these private schools really are cheaper, operating on about half the budget of the government public schools.” I ask Justin why private schools in Kenya get better results with less money. “That is the 64,000 dollar question,” he says. “If we knew the answer to that I think we’d have the agenda for education reform in the developing world laid out for us. The private schools are a black box and the point of this paper is to really point out how big that black box is.” Justin tells me that parents are more involved in private schools because their money goes towards schools fees. This element of bottom-up accountability, which is typically absent in public schools, could contribute to the success of private schools in Kenya, he says. Another advantage of private schools is simply that they have found a cheap technology for teaching -- employing teachers on short-term contracts at salaries far below civil service wages. Can Government Learn From The Private Sector? Justin and I discuss a forthcoming working paper (http://www.cgdev.org/doc/kenya_rct_webdraft.pdf) which looks at whether the Kenyan government can adopt this technology of contract teachers and successfully scale it up nationwide in government schools. Justin and his coauthors organized a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in Kenya which draws on prior work by Esther Duflo, Michael Kramer, and Pascaline Dupas. These earlier studies, also in Kenya,  showed employing contract teachers in public schools had a statistically significant effect on improving test scores. Based on these findings, the Ministry of Education agreed to scale up the intervention across the country. But in their new paper, Justin and his co-authors have found it matters a lot which entity is responsible for running the program. When the contract teachers are hired by an international NGO (as was also the case in the earlier pilots) the impact on test scores is significant and positive. But when the same intervention is executed by the Ministry of Education, there is no impact on test scores. Why? “The question of why is really difficult,” explains Justin. “There are a number of hypotheses on the table that are mostly related to the government’s ability to implement the programs in the districts.” I end the Wonkcast by pushing Justin to discuss whether there are broader lessons from the new study. Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 24:48 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/03/oil-2-cash-in-iraq-johnny-west/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/03/oil-2-cash-in-iraq-johnny-west/#comments Tue, 03 Apr 2012 13:35:12 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=953 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/04/03/oil-2-cash-in-iraq-johnny-west/feed/ 1 Cash transfers,Iraq,Oil Johnny West is a man of many talents. An expert on oil, civil society, and governance in the Middle East who works as an advisor to the UNDP, he is fluent in Arabic, spent more than two decades in the Middle East as a journalist for Reuters, (http://www.cgdev.org/userfiles/image/expert phtotos/Articles-johnny-west-on-the-arab-spring.jpg)Johnny West is a man of many talents. An expert on oil, civil society, and governance in the Middle East who works as an advisor to the UNDP, he is fluent in Arabic, spent more than two decades in the Middle East as a journalist for Reuters, and has just published a highly readable book (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Karama-Journeys-Through-Arab-Spring/dp/0857389947) recounting his journey through the Arab Spring. On this week’s Wonkcast, we catch him between his travels to discuss a new working paper he’s written for CGD: Iraq’s Last Window: Diffusing the Risks of a Petro State (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1425433/). Johnny’s experience in the Middle East makes him think that the region just might be ripe for an Oil 2 Cash (http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/revenues_distribution) revolution that could help foster improvements in governance and reduce poverty. He tells me that on a recent trip to Libya, while bouncing across the country on half-built dirt roads in the back of a pickup, he reflected on some startling calculations about the country’s oil industry. During the 42 years of Gaddafi rule, the dictator accumulated over $1 trillion in oil rents. At the same time, much of the country remains poor and a startling number of Libyans can neither read nor write. Related Working Paper and Podcast * Iraq’s Last Window: Diffusing the Risks of a Petro-State - Working Paper 266 (http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1425433/) * Is 2012 Iraq’s Last Chance to Get it Right on Oil?(Blog) (http://blogs.cgdev.org/globaldevelopment/2011/09/is-2012-iraq%E2%80%99s-last-chance-to-get-it-right-on-oil.php) This is the resource curse, the paradox that nations that have abundant natural resources often wind up with the worst governments and the poorest people. Johnny is a one of a growing number of Middle East experts who are intrigued by the idea that the oil curse could be turned into a blessing through the simple mechanism of distributing some or all of the revenue directly to citizens, then taxing back a portion of it. In Iraq’s case, the timing could be right because revenues are expected to increase dramatically in the years ahead. “They currently produce 2.5 million barrels a day,” says Johnny. “They could easily go to 5 or even 8 to 10 based on geological assets they have. That means $2,000 in cash transfers per person per year by 2015 given expected increases in production.” And the benefits from handing over resource wealth directly to the people in the form of cash transfers go beyond poverty reduction. Drawing on previous CGD research, Johnny argues that the dividends would help shore up the government’s legitimacy, strengthen civil society and citizen engagement, and potentially unify the country’s disparate ethnic and religious groups. But making cash transfers work requires different strategies for different countries and the ability to identify windows of opportunity, since governments and leaders are typically loath to relinquish control over lucrative resource rents. “When we think we’re early in the curve in a country beginning to produce oil, we’re actually late in the curve,” says Johnny. That’s because most governments begin spending their expected oil revenue well before the oil is pumped from the ground. The idea of oil to cash is not new. Nancy Birdsall and Arvind Subramanian, among others, suggested direct distribution of oil revenues (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/59923/nancy-birdsall-and-arvind-subramanian/saving-iraq-from-its-oil) soon after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. This time, however, the politics may be right. “There is a rising degree of interest within the Arab world in general,” says Johnny. Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 28:18 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/03/27/cgd-in-europe-%e2%80%93-owen-barder/ http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/03/27/cgd-in-europe-%e2%80%93-owen-barder/#comments Tue, 27 Mar 2012 18:15:02 +0000 Lawrence MacDonald http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/?p=1155 http://blogs.cgdev.org/global_prosperity_wonkcast/2012/03/27/cgd-in-europe-%e2%80%93-owen-barder/feed/ 0 Center for Global Development,Globalization - Most Wonkcasts focus on CGD’s research and policy work. This one is different. My guest is Owen Barder and our topic is CGD itself, specifically the effort that Owen is leading to greatly increase the Center’s engagement in Europe. Owen, (http://www.cgdev.org/files/1423544_image_O_barder_170.jpg) Most Wonkcasts focus on CGD’s research and policy work. This one is different. My guest is Owen Barder (http://www.cgdev.org/content/expert/detail/1423544) and our topic is CGD itself, specifically the effort that Owen is leading to greatly increase the Center’s engagement in Europe. Owen, a CGD senior fellow and director for Europe, previously worked for CGD on our Advance Market Commitment (http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_archive/ghprn/workinggroups/amc) initiative, which led to a $1.5 billion pilot commitment to purchase and ensure delivery of new vaccines to prevent pneumococcal disease. He subsequently spent three years in Ethiopia and recently resumed working for CGD, based in London, to strengthen the Center’s ties with the European development research and policy community. [Note: Owen continues to maintain his own excellent blog, Owen Abroad (http://www.owen.org/blog) and to host occasional podcasts, Development Drums (http://developmentdrums.org/); these are also now available on the CGD Website multimedia page.] “When I was thinking about why we needed a presence in Europe, I was thinking about CGD working on issues other than aid,” says Owen. “CGD has a really important set of projects and activities which draw attention to how the rich world affects poor countries through things like trade policy, environment, and migration.” Owen tells me that the European development policy dialogue focuses on aid and its effectiveness, while paying too little attention to other policy issues that have a large impact on development. “In Europe we need to have a richer conversation about some of these other questions, and that we should bring the CGD blend of evidence-led, quality research that can drive into policy propositions,” he adds. “We no longer live in a world where what Washington thinks is the sole determinant of what’s going to happen,” he says. “If you can move forward across many fronts, you’ll be more likely to get a consensus on how to do something.” During a recent visit with Owen in London, I was pleased to learn more about his plans to use the framework of CGD’s flagship product, the Commitment to Development Index (http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/cdi/) (CDI), to look more closely at development policies in Europe, both at the EU and the country level. Devised by CGD senior fellow David Roodman, the CDI ranks rich countries on how well they help poor countries via linkages in seven components: aid, trade, investment, migration, environment, security, and technology. Owen explains that while smaller countries, mostly the Nordics, consistently dominate the top of the index, Europe as a whole does not score as highly as many Europeans might expect– falling below the United States and Canada—when European countries are combined in a weighted average. “I want to figure out why Europe’s performance is not as good as expected,” explains Owen. “Is it because of decisions made in Brussels or country-level decisions? We’re going to try to dig in and really understand what’s going on, and what Europe could be doing differently. The purpose is to contribute to a practical policy agenda for European policy makers to have a better impact on the developing world.” Owen explains he is seeking out experts across the continent of Europe in areas such as trade policy, the environment, and migration. He then plans to host a public conversation online, where these experts can share their research discuss development policy issues beyond aid. “The idea is to do this collaboratively and pull out conclusions that make sense to a broader community,” says Owen. I’d like to thank Alexandra Gordon for serving as producer and recording engineer, and for helping to draft this post. Global Prosperity Wonkcast no 21:20 Global Prosperity WonkcastnonadultGlobal Prosperity Wonkcast