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Tag: Demand Forecasting

 

Demand Forecasting Takes Off

6/21/13
Amanda Glassman

In early 2006, CGD convened a working group–led by Ruth Levine- to address a pervasive problem in global health: poor forecasting of expected demand for key products. Long-term strategic demand forecasts are needed in order for manufacturers to make capacity investments, make more accurate long term plans for manufacturing and distribution, and for donors to conduct better multi-year program planning. Medium-term demand forecasts are equally essential. When such forecasts are off, manufacturers have to dispose of unsold drugs; donors and ministries of health may face uncertain prices and availability of essential products; and –most importantly- communities and individuals can face the terrible prospect of shortages, incomplete treatments and the emergence of drug resistance.  The Wall Street Journal’s recent coverage of shortages of pediatric tuberculosis (TB) treatments demonstrates the weaknesses –or perhaps absence- of adequate demand forecasting in India’s anti-TB programs.

End-Use Verification: Simple but Potentially Powerful

8/12/11
Amanda Glassman

When budget cuts loom and all the issues are big and thorny, one is naturally attracted to the small and overlooked initiatives that might make a difference. I recently discovered the President’s Malaria Initiative’s (PMI) “End-Use Verification Tool”, a short questionnaire being implemented to regularly monitor the availability of malaria diagnostics and medications at the health facility level in PMI focus countries.

How Plausible Are the Predictions of AIDS Models?

11/29/10
Mead Over

UNAIDS, WHO, PEPFAR and the Global Fund for AIDS TB and Malaria (GFATM) all depend on long-run projections in order to make the case for increased attention and financing for AIDS.  This dependency is a response to the reality that HIV is a slow epidemic with extraordinary “momentum”.  Even small changes in the course of new infections require years to implement and have health and fiscal consequences for decades thereafter.  According to the UNAIDS web site, “[s]ince 2001, the UNAIDS Secretariat have le

A Whole New World of Vaccines

9/28/07
Ruth Levine

In the "olden days" before the turn of the 21st century, immunization was not exactly headline-grabbing. Fascinating science, yes. One of the fundamental ways to keep children healthy, yes. But the object of intense business strategy-making, a key part of the fight against sexually-transmitted disease, and the focus of glamorous gatherings of the philanthropic elite - not so much. A few recent news items suggest that it's a whole new world. For example:

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