Recorded a discussion with Larry Weber, chairman of the W2 Group and author of the bestseller “marketing to the Social Web: How Digital Customer Communities Build Your Business.”

The interview will be aired on Tuesday, August 5 at 12pm EST at http://www.webmasterradio.fm/Internet-Marketing/Market-Edge.

We discussed the Mobile Advertising market place and the emerging ecosystem dynamics. It was a pleasure. Thanks Larry.

From NYT

PARIS — New evidence that the European economic slowdown was hitting consumers emerged Tuesday as the Vodafone Group, the British cellphone operator, warned that its results would suffer.

“There’s a big macroenomic picture that’s playing through, and frankly, as a company, we’re not immune to it,” the chief executive, Arun Sarin, said in a conference call.

He said Vodafone, the world’s largest cellphone operator, was cutting its revenue forecast for the year to around $79.6 billion, the lower end of its previous estimate.

Mr. Sarin said business was weaker in Britain and throughout Europe, but that the picture was particularly bleak in Spain, which like Britain, Ireland and the United States, was undergoing a painful adjustment as a property bubble deflated.

The decline in the Spanish housing industry has led many of its customers among the migrant work force there to go home. As a result, revenue growth in the Spanish market has stalled after years of 10 percent or more annual increases.

“The business isn’t falling apart,” he said, “but within this business that’s a segment that’s having a hard time.”

He noted that the company had not changed its forecast for full-year profit of £11 billion to £11.5 billion or $21.9 billion to $22.9 billion. Shares of Vodafone fell nearly 15 percent in London afternoon trading, giving them a loss of nearly 21 percent in the last 12 months. Telefónica, Vodafone’s main rival in Spain, fell 7.4 percent in Madrid.

Mark James, an analyst at Collins Stewart, said telecommunications companies had displayed remarkable resistance to the economic slowdown, but that Vodafone had shown that they could not hold out indefinitely.

“The Spanish and U.K. telecoms markets, resilient to the economic slowdown to date, finally look to have cracked,” he told Reuters.

Results from Ericsson, the Swedish maker of wireless networking gear, also hurt technology stocks. Ericsson’s shares fell 9.3 percent in Stockholm after it said second-quarter net profit fell 70 percent, to about $320 million from a year earlier. Revenue rose 2 percent.

–

This doesn’t mean troubles are over yet. A lot depends on how Google-Yahoo pact is treated by the regulators. It will be hard for them to ignore the threat of a monopoly staring them in their face but stranger things have happened.

As for MS, it must be scratching its head figuring out its next move. Whatever the outcome, the MS-Yahoo saga is headed towards Business School case studies.

Appstore specifically has enabled so many developers and ecosystem players to make iPhone a central piece of their strategy to understand mobile consumption, mobile trends and future directions. 800 apps launched, 10M downloads in 2 days is quite phenomenal. I can’t recall any other single device having such a performance. iPhone is the standard against which all other devices will get compared.

The clearcut business model of 30/70 split is also attractive, there is no separate negotiation, one stop shop, less biz dev expense. Literally, anyone can launch apps and services, doesn’t require companies to have a deep rolodex and the lifecycle to launch gets reduced.

Disruption is in the air.

I received a nice link from our friend Chetan Sharma (whose book Mobile Advertising is brilliant). Chetan did a report for United Nations Foundation around mobile in e-health. The document is good on three levels. First, it is free, thanks to the UN’s grant. Secondly, it discusses the next 10 years of mobile in a very good way, regardless of whether you are interested in e-health. And thirdly, it does look very specifically at e-health issues as well, towards the end of the paper. A great document, worth reading, with lots of insights and good data from today, with very realistic projections and forecasts for the next 10 years.  Thanks Chetan!

Thanks a lot, Tomi. It was an interesting and challenging exercise to look at far ahead and write something meaningful. I am looking forward to presenting the paper to the experts in a couple of weeks.

Bellagio, Italy. July 13 - Aug 1, 2008

This project has been made possible by the generous funding from THE UNITED NATIONS FOUNDATION Download PDF

http://www.chetansharma.com/UNF-MobileServicesEvolution.htm

This weekend in Bellagio, Italy begins a 4 week long dialogue on the subject of eHealth. The Conference - Making the eHealth Connection: Global Partnerships, Local solutions is being organized by the eminent Rockefeller Foundation. It will bring in experts and organizations from around the world to discuss, share, develop, agree on solutions going forward. Each week deals with a different nuance of the eHealth framework. This will allow for an in-depth study and discussion. Full conference info here.

Week 3 deals with mHealth and Mobile Telemedicine being organized by The UN Foundation, Vodafone Group Foundation, and the Telemedicine Society of India. As part of this conference The Rockefeller Foundation and its partners have released a series of white papers on various subjects. I was asked by The UN Foundation to look into the potential Mobile Services Evolution going forward and how a platform could be developed that will enable a number of applications focused on enterprise, health, public safety and associated sub-segments. While it is difficult to predict with any precision what might happen 10 years from now, one can try to understand the evolution of technologies, business models and their interrelated ecosystems and see the impact on various vertical segments where we use technology to solve some basic problems. Most of the time, technology itself doesn’t cut it, it requires partnerships, collapsing of the bureaucracy, innovative funding means, and just the burning desire to make a difference that matter the most. I strongly believe in Mobile’s central role in a number of social and public services. Mobile Services Evolution 2008-2018 is a small effort to forward that discussion.

Abstract

Over the last 10 years, the progress made in the global mobile industry has been truly stunning. Mobile device ownership has gone from being a luxury item to necessity as the feverish rate of adoption has spread mobile technologies into every corner of the world. As we look into the next 10 years, it is certain that the mobile phone will be used for much more than just voice communications. There is an opportunity for private institutions and public enterprises to build a vision of cohesive mobile services platform that enables and engages the masses to both fundamentally enhance the quality of their daily existence as well as lead to new opportunities globally. This paper takes a look at the potential evolution of mobile technology and services over the course of the next 10 years and discusses an M-Services framework for building and deploying diverse mobile services. The paper also looks into the challenges of such an endeavor and steps that will be needed to achieve the vision.

Table of Content

Download Complete Paper - PDF

Thanks to THE UNITED NATIONS FOUNDATION for making this work possible. I will be presenting the paper at the conference later this month.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Thanks

Chetan Sharma

vSNAX from Rhythm New Media - One can watch the latest video clips including breaking news, celeb gossip, beautiful models, funny snippets, and more from brands you know like CBS, Spike, VH1, Style Network, AccuWeather.com, Ford Models, Ripe TV, G4 TV, Octane TV, and more.

A new photosharing service - BigCanvas developed by Satoshi Nakajima of Windows and UI Evolution fame

Of course, standard social networking, communications, games apps abound. The Appstore is probably the single biggest contribution to the mobile industry by this version of the iPhone. The battery life, the higher cost of data plans etc will gave way for time spent on the iPhone and advertising dollars to flow

San Jose The Mercury News - IPhone 3G ready for global debut

The News Journal - iPhone 3G expected to lure early birds

Did a few interviews this morning on iPhone and what it might mean, what can we expect etc.

One of them was with Internet Retailer regarding the decision to not do online sales in the US. You can read the story here.

http://www.mercurynews.com/businessheadlines/ci_9806363

IPhone 3G has business appeal

By John Boudreau
Mercury News

Article Launched: 07/07/2008 01:34:18 AM PDT

A year after becoming the stylish pocket PC for consumers, the iPhone is ready to go to work.

The latest version of the mobile device, which goes on sale Friday, will take advantage of a faster wireless network - dubbed 3G for third-generation - making it more attractive for business use by improving what many consider to be the current version’s key flaw - its slow Web access.

Equally important to companies are new e-mail and security capabilities that will give the iPhone a foot in the office. And that has many employees pestering their information technology managers about getting their own corporate iPhone.

Wells Fargo Bank Executive Vice President Steve Ellis is involved with a pilot iPhone project to test its functions and work on integrating it into the company’s vast infrastructure. He said he experiences “iPhone envy” from colleagues, and that hardly a day goes by when he’s not asked about when iPhones will be available to all employees.

The 3G iPhone will be able to sync seamlessly with Microsoft Exchange servers and support Cisco VPN security settings so workers can access sensitive company information. It also will support other applications geared for the corporate world, such as “remote wipe,” the ability to instantly remove data on a device if it is lost or stolen.

The new button-down iPhone will compete with the BlackBerry and Palm Treo as a tool for employees. In the past, Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs has said his company

would focus its efforts on the consumer market. But the iPhone’s wide appeal is giving it a place at the workplace without changing its core mission.

“If they focus on the consumer side with just enough functionality to get into the enterprise market, they will sell a lot of units,” said Ken Dulaney, an analyst with Gartner, a research firm.

Rather than stealing share from competitors, the iPhone will expand the market, says independent wireless industry analyst Chetan Sharma. The iPhone could increase the presence of smart-phones in new areas, such as the medical profession. Applications under development could enable doctors to easily access X-rays and other information while visiting with patients, Sharma said.

“It’s going to grow the pie,” he said.

Apple said 35 percent of Fortune 500 companies has participated in the iPhone’s corporate-friendly 2.0 beta software.

Terry Stepien, an executive at Dublin-based Sybase, which makes back-end software that links mobile devices to corporate systems, said his company is getting numerous inquiries about the iPhone. In particular, he’s hearing from financial and manufacturing logistics companies.

“There are people who love these devices who are bringing them in through the back door,” said Sean Ryan, an IDC mobile enterprise research analyst.

“The iPhone works well for those who just need to find information,” he added. “It offers an incredible browsing experience. It’s the best out there.”

But the iPhone’s DNA, Web surfing with a touch screen, does not always fit with the e-mail-heavy business world. Those accustomed to using a keyboard might have a hard time making a switch if they spend a lot of time typing.

While the iPhone will be offered as an alternative at some companies, analysts don’t expect it to threaten the BlackBerry’s dominance among the cubicles. Research In Motion, the maker of BlackBerry devices, aggressively improves its service and relationships with corporate America.

“It’s a gutsy call for IT people to switch,” said Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. “RIM’s been good to them. Why rock the boat?”

In the first quarter of the year, RIM’s BlackBerry took 44.5 percent of the smart-phone market in the United States, while Apple had 19.2 percent, according to research firm IDC’s vendor survey.

The iPhone’s hip aura, while appealing to college students and “creative” professionals, may actually hinder its appeal among the gray suits, Munster said.

“Culturally, it’s hard for some organizations to get their arms around that, giving their employees something they can have fun with,” he said.

But Wells Fargo’s Ellis, who said the bank is building its own iPhone applications to provide services for customers, doesn’t see why technology shouldn’t be fun to work with.

About two decades ago, he helped deploy early PCs at Wells Fargo, a chore that consumed much of his time because their applications came with a steep learning curve.

“If you have a device that allows you to spend 5 percent of your time figuring out how it works and 95 percent of your time doing your work, that’s a good thing,” Ellis said.

Michael Fitzgerald interviewed me for this piece for MIT Technology Review. The discussion was around the selling off of Helio to Virgin Mobile USA.

Full article here.

Berna Erol, Senior Research Scientist from Ricoh California Research Center was present at the event and did a pretty nice summary. An excerpt below:

Chetan Sharma, President of Technology and Strategy Consulting, talked about mobile advertising. He made a good point that when thinking about mobile advertising one should not only think about cell phones but also other mobile devices such as Amazon’s Kindle, iPod Touch, etc.

Chetan emphasized that from advertisers point of view, the following points are most important:

1. Reach: How many people you can touch with your advertisement
2. Targeting/Purity: Reaching the right target audience
3. Effectiveness: Measuring the effectiveness of the advertisement, does user take any action?
4. Efficiency: Getting the benefit and revenue increase for the money spent on advertising.

Clearly mobile advertising has advantages especially in advertising targeting and measuring the effectiveness of the advertisement.

            Chetan predicts that mobile advertisement will be
            bigger than online advertisement and the mobile ad business
            has potential to be $20B industry by 2013.

When I was listening Chetan I was thinking how annoying it would be to receive mobile advertisements. Then, unknowingly Chetan made a comment and made me a believer: He thinks that idle screen of mobile phones are the holly grail of mobile advertisement, everything will start from there. He thinks, and I agree, people would be willing to receive advertisement and coupon on their idle screen, especially in exchange for reduced monthly mobile provider fees. Another good point was that the location based advertisements (e.g., a restaurant coupon can be delivered when you are close by) would be very important in the near future.

Julie had some really good insights into the social networking impact on mobile while Tim talked the consumer adoption of various technologies over time. Like most, he is a big fan of iPhone.

After our presentations, Ken of Kenradio fame moderated a 90 minute panel discussion and we covered pretty much everything under the sun.

Btw, just for the record, i talked quite a bit about the steps necessary to help enable the market reach $20B in 5 years. Lot of work needs to be done and we have to watch the trigger points.

In our annual predictions last year, the response group predicted that Helio won’t last 2008.

6. Will Helio survive 2008?

Almost 70% respondents thought Helio won’t make it. Given the flameout of some of the prominent new-generation MVNOs, it is hard to see how Helio will see 2009. It will all come down to how persistent is SK Telecom. Earthlink doesn’t have the bank balance to keep funding this initiative.

In 1983 Cricket world cup, the Indian team was the biggest underdogs, a team that seemed alien to the one day format. Even the most ardent supporters and the team members didn’t have much hope from the event. The team had some spectacular players like Sunil Gavaskar, Kapil Dev, Mohinder Amarnath, Sandeep Patil, and the likes but they didn’t really find the one day format comfortable. As a teenager and as a loyal follower, I was glued to the commentary coming out of England. The biggest turning point was the best innings ever played in one day (and unfortunately not recorded) by Kapil Dev, an innings that will forever go into folklore for generations to come. From a pathetic 9-4, India went on to score 266-8 and win the  match by 31 runs. After that India seemed unbeatable at least to us - the fans and the team itself but still the cricket fraternity didn’t give them a chance. Yet, India went on to beat Australia, then England in the semis and went to finals as a favorite underdog. But could they beat the mighty Windies who had won the world cup twice with ruthless efficiency. I remember watching the Indian innings and the match appeared lost when India only scored 183 for 4. I turned off the TV and went to the market but the entire market was on fire glued to their radios. India had been making good progress denting the windies batting line up. The catch that Kapil took to dismiss King Richards was nothing short of breathtaking. There was no stopping after that. We cheered until our throats were sore and India got the last wicket. The country erupted in joy, pride, and celebration.

The memory of that magical summer will remain etched in my mind for ever. It was an upset of such gigantic proportions that there are few equivalents in sports, maybe the US ice hockey team beating the Russians in Olympics comes close. It is also an unfortunate reminder that India hasn’t repeated its feat again.

A great recap of the 83 tournament here.

Nokia has been putting together some smart strategic moves lately.

Dan Roth of WIRED magazine interviewed me for this piece in the July issue. I talked to him after Google announced Android last year. Dan does an in-depth piece on how Android came about and what it might mean for the mobile industry. It is a lengthy piece, here is the link to the complete article.

Some excerpts:

“Is this interesting to Google?” That’s what Andy Rubin was asking Larry Page. It was a spring day in 2005, and the two were in a conference room just off the main lobby at Google’s headquarters. A simple yes and Rubin would have walked away happy.

“You have a significant challenge in mobile, in that the screens are much smaller, so you can’t display nearly as much advertising or take as much space,” Google cofounder Sergey Brin told Wall Street analysts on a recent conference call. “On the other hand, you have much more relevant and timely information, like what location the person might be in, so on balance that leaves me quite optimistic.”

Telecom consultant Chetan Sharma says that Android’s success depends on Google’s willingness to share the wealth. “What’s the relationship going to be between Google and the carriers in terms of advertising dollars?” he asks. “That needs to be nailed down before we know how big Android can be.”

And if they don’t? Not much downside. If the only thing Android achieves — as Page knew before Rubin walked into Google three years ago — is getting more people to spend more time online, then Google still profits. More users mean more people viewing pages with Google ads. If they’re doing that from an Android phone, great. If not, but they’re on a phone made more Web-friendly thanks to competitive pressure from Google, that’s also fine. “I hope it’s Android,” Page says. But either way, Google wins.