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	<itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:image href="http://chicagobullseye.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/bullspodcasts.jpg"/><itunes:keywords>chicago,bulls,bullseye,chicago,bulls,beat,bulls,hq</itunes:keywords><itunes:summary>A variety of Chicago Bulls podcasts aggregated into one feed.</itunes:summary><itunes:subtitle>All Chicago Bulls Podcasts</itunes:subtitle><itunes:category text="Sports &amp; Recreation"><itunes:category text="Professional"/></itunes:category><itunes:owner><itunes:email>dougthonus@comcast.net</itunes:email></itunes:owner><item>
		<title>How Often Do NBA Second-Round Picks Become Rotation Players?</title>
		<link>https://chicagobullseye.com/how-often-do-nba-second-round-picks-become-rotation-players/</link>
		
		
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2026 04:13:52 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Columns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2010 NBA Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2015 NBA Draft]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Best Second Round Picks]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Draft Value]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[NBA Draft Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NBA Draft History]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[NBA Prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NBA Rotation Players]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Second Round NBA Draft Success Rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Second Round Picks]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[By See Red Fred Every trade deadline, every draft night, every rebuild — the same phrase gets thrown around:&#8230;]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p><em>By See Red Fred</em></p>



<p>Every trade deadline, every draft night, every rebuild — the same phrase gets thrown around:</p>



<p><strong>“They got multiple second-round picks.”</strong></p>



<p>It’s said like teams just acquired gold.</p>



<p>Fans celebrate it.<br>Front offices tout it.<br>Media repeats it.</p>



<p>But here’s the real question no one ever asks: <strong>What do second-round picks actually become?</strong></p>



<p>So I went back and looked at every second-round pick from <strong>2010 through 2020</strong> — a full decade of data. That’s enough time for careers to play out and for real outcomes to be measured.</p>



<p>The results?<br>They’re not what most people think.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">The Data Set</h1>



<p>From 2010–2020:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>11 drafts</li>



<li>30 second-round picks per draft</li>



<li><strong>330 total second-round picks</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>To evaluate success, we define a hit as:</p>



<p><strong>A real NBA rotation player</strong><br>(consistent minutes, multi-year contributor, not a fringe bench guy)</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">The Headline Number</h1>



<p>Out of 330 second-round picks:</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Only about <strong>85 became real rotation players</strong></h3>



<p>That’s it.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f4ca.png" alt="📊" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Rotation success rate: <strong>~26%</strong></h3>



<p>So historically:</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p><strong>Nearly three out of every four second-round picks never become rotation players.</strong></p>
</blockquote>



<p>Let that sink in.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">The Bust Rate Nobody Talks About</h1>



<p>If 26% become rotation players…</p>



<p>That means:</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/274c.png" alt="❌" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> <strong>74% of second-round picks fail to become meaningful contributors</strong></h3>



<p>They either:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Bounce around benches</li>



<li>Go overseas</li>



<li>Wash out of the league</li>



<li>Or never establish themselves</li>
</ul>



<p>When teams collect second-rounders, this is the reality they’re dealing with.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Star-Level Hits Are Extremely Rare</h1>



<p>Yes, there are success stories.<br>But they’re the exception — not the rule.</p>



<p>From that 2010–2020 sample, true high-end outcomes include:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Nikola Jokic</li>



<li>Draymond Green</li>



<li>Khris Middleton</li>



<li>Jalen Brunson</li>



<li>Malcolm Brogdon</li>



<li>Jordan Clarkson</li>



<li>Spencer Dinwiddie</li>



<li>Norman Powell</li>



<li>Dillon Brooks</li>



<li>Montrezl Harrell</li>
</ul>



<p>Roughly <strong>10–12 players</strong> out of 330 became star-level or near-star contributors.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/2b50.png" alt="⭐" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /> Star hit rate: <strong>~3–4%</strong></h3>



<p>That’s about <strong>1 out of every 25 second-round picks</strong>.</p>



<p>So when a team trades for second-rounders hoping to “find the next Jokic”…<br>History says that’s wishful thinking.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">What Multiple Seconds Really Equal</h1>



<p>Let’s translate this into real-world trade math.</p>



<p>If a team receives:</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">1 second-round pick</h3>



<p>→ ~26% chance of rotation player</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">2 second-round picks</h3>



<p>→ maybe one rotation player if you’re good</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">3 second-round picks</h3>



<p>→ still no guarantee of anything</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">4–5 picks</h3>



<p>→ odds improve, but still uncertain</p>



<p>In most cases?</p>



<p>You’re collecting <strong>lottery tickets</strong>, not guaranteed contributors.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Why Second-Round Picks Get Overvalued</h1>



<p>Second-rounders feel valuable because they offer:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Flexibility</li>



<li>Cost control</li>



<li>Mystery upside</li>



<li>Hope</li>
</ul>



<p>But hope isn’t production.</p>



<p>Front offices love optionality.<br>Fans love the unknown.<br>Media loves saying “draft capital.”</p>



<p>But historically speaking:</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>Second-round picks are far more likely to produce nothing than something.</p>
</blockquote>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">The Bulls (and League-Wide) Perspective</h1>



<p>This matters when evaluating trades.</p>



<p>Every time you hear:</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>“They got three second-round picks in return.”</p>
</blockquote>



<p>Ask one simple question:</p>



<p><strong>What does that actually become?</strong></p>



<p>History says:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Maybe one rotation player</li>



<li>Often none</li>



<li>Very small chance of a star</li>
</ul>



<p>That’s not nothing.<br>But it’s not a haul either.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Final Reality Check</h1>



<p>From 2010–2020:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>26%</strong> of second-round picks became rotation players</li>



<li><strong>74%</strong> did not</li>



<li>Only <strong>3–4%</strong> became stars</li>
</ul>



<p>Second-round picks have value.<br>Good scouting matters.<br>Smart teams can find gems.</p>



<p>But let’s stop pretending they’re premium assets.</p>



<p>They’re not gold bars.<br>They’re scratch-off tickets.</p>



<p>And most of the time?</p>



<p>They don’t hit.</p>



<p></p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			<dc:creator>dougthonus@comcast.net (chicagobullsey)</dc:creator></item>
		<item>
		<title>Coby White is a Ceiling Buster</title>
		<link>https://chicagobullseye.com/coby-white-is-a-ceiling-buster/</link>
		
		
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Aug 2025 22:24:45 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Columns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seeing Red]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://chicagobullseye.com/?p=3933</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Whatever you believe Coby White&#8217;s ceiling is, it isn’t high enough. So many fellow Bulls fans argued—especially when he&#8230;]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="3933" class="elementor elementor-3933">
						<section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6f6e3f74 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default" data-id="6f6e3f74" data-element_type="section">
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				<div class="elementor-widget-container">
									<p>Whatever you believe Coby White&#8217;s ceiling is, it isn’t high enough. So many fellow Bulls fans argued—especially when he signed his first extension—that Coby had settled into the role of a solid sixth man. That assertion, which was common at the time, no longer applies. He shattered that ceiling during the 2023–24 season, finishing <strong>second in the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award</strong>. Then, after a steady but unspectacular start to the 2024–25 campaign, White erupted following the All-Star break. In <b>March 2025</b>, he was named <strong>Eastern Conference Player of the Month</strong>—a distinction no Bull had earned since DeMar DeRozan in the 2021–22 season</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>To put that in perspective, the list of Eastern Conference Players of the Month between DeRozan and White reads like an all-star roster. Here’s a closer look:</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --></p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Eastern Conference Players of the Month (from Feb 2022 to Mar 2025)</h3>
<p><!-- /wp:heading --><!-- wp:list --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --></ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>February 2022:</strong> DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>March 2022:</strong> Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>November 2022:</strong> Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>December 2022:</strong> Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>January 2023:</strong> Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>February 2023:</strong> Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>March 2023:</strong> Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>November 2023:</strong> Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>December 2023:</strong> Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>January 2024:</strong> Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>February 2024:</strong> Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>March 2024:</strong> Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>November 2024:</strong> Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>December 2024:</strong> Karl‑Anthony Towns, New York Knicks</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>January 2025:</strong> Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>February 2025:</strong> Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --><!-- wp:list-item --></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li style="list-style-type: none;">
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>March 2025:</strong> Coby White, Chicago Bulls</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p><!-- /wp:list-item --></p>
<p><!-- /wp:list --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>All of these players&#8230;outside of Coby are All-Stars.&nbsp; Some are perennial MVP candidates. What&#8217;s remarkable? Coby achieved the honor while leading a Bulls team that finished 39–43, the only winner of the award in this stretch for a team with a losing record. It&#8217;s proof that, even on teams that underperformed, his individual brilliance stood out.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>To truly appreciate how far Coby has come, consider his path: drafted 7th overall in 2019—just after Jarrett Culver and amid debates favoring Cam Reddish. In his rookie season under Jim Boylen, his late-season surge—averaging nearly 26 points with 50/40/90 shooting in the final nine games—hinted at greatness, only to be interrupted by COVID isolation, cutting off vital development.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>Year Two brought a shift to traditional point guard responsibilities without a proper offseason, and the expected growing pains followed. The summer of 2021 brought a shoulder injury that required surgery, robbing him of another critical development window, even as the Bulls traded for Lonzo Ball and demoted Coby to the bench. Despite rushing back by mid-November, he was relatively inconsistent that season.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>The 2022–23 season, Coby&#8217;s contract year, saw him accept a bench role behind Ayo Dosunmu and org decisions to add veterans like Goran Dragic and Patrick Beverley to compete for time and touches —yet he didn&#8217;t complain. Instead, he quietly dominated down the stretch—shooting 50/40/100 over the final 23 games—only to see his role diminished in crunch time once again.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>Year Five was the one that changed everything. With Lonzo still out and Jevon Carter in camp, Coby won the starting point guard job. When LaVine went down, he seized the reins, becoming Chicago’s primary ball handler with poise, improved defense, and leadership. His performance earned him not just accolades but <strong>the respect of opposing coaches</strong>, encapsulated by Rick Carlisle’s endorsement: <em>“We have a lot of respect for him and he&#8217;s a big part of our game plan.”</em></p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>And Year 6 brought new challenges. With the arrival of Josh Giddey, Coby once again had to adjust to a shifting role. He began the season playing solid but unspectacular basketball—steady, but not headline-grabbing. Then came the All-Star break, and everything changed. Coby exploded in the final months, putting together the kind of dominant stretch that earned him <strong>Eastern Conference Player of the Month honors in March 2025</strong>, elevating him to a new level of greatness.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>And so we arrive at Year 7.</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --></p>
<p>What is in store? If the past is any indication, we can expect more growth, more leadership, and a bigger spotlight. My prediction? A well-deserved <strong>All-Star appearance</strong> and the rise of <strong>Coby White as the unquestioned best player</strong> on a surprising, playoff-contending Bulls team.&nbsp; We shall see.&nbsp; But the good news is, my prophetic predictions have been proven right 93% of the time.&nbsp; Go Bulls.&nbsp;</p>
<p><!-- /wp:paragraph --></p>								</div>
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		]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			<dc:creator>dougthonus@comcast.net (chicagobullsey)</dc:creator></item>
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