Your pants have been deceiving you for years. And the lies are compounding:

Via Esquire. h/t Naunihal.

The absence of state capacities to raise revenue and to support markets is a key factor in explaining the persistence of weak states. This paper reports on an on-going project to investigate the incentive to invest in such capacities. The paper sets out a simple analytical structure in which state capacities are modeled as forward looking investments by government. The approach highlights some determinants of state building including the risk of external or internal con‡flict, the degree of political instability, and dependence on natural resources. Throughout, we link these state capacity investments to patterns of development and growth.

It is by Tim Besley and Torsten Persson. I agree with the core predictions, but I do not think they are are necessarily going to be true. More on this in a few weeks.

On small blogs, people typically comment when they have something to contribute or ask that is relevant to the post. These are frequently of high quality. … On more popular blogs, this positive commenting dynamic is confounded by the presence of eyeballs. Every post is read by many thousands of people. For the self-involved who could never attract such a large audience on their own, this is an irresistible forum for expounding pet hypotheses, axe-grinding, and generally shouting at or expressing meaningless agreement with the celebrity post-authors.

The first step, therefore, to higher quality comments is “be more niche.” Discourage your marginal readers with technical language, obscure references, and lengthy posts. Your marginal readers are not of high value anyway, and driving them away is an excellent way to improve the average comment of your inframarginal readers.

Wisdom from Eli Dourado. Hat tip to Robin Hanson.

Here’s what a closer look at your economics and political science can tell you.

Expect price volatility to fall over time. Globalization and growth should reduce price spikes in future. More countries are producing crops. Climate shocks in Argentina are not that tied to climate shocks in Russia or China, and so price volatility from supply shocks should be going down. Falling transport costs also mean that more substitutes are available, further reducing price volatility. So things should be getting better over time, not worse, especially if trade allows countries to diversify their diet. Envision a future of diminishing instability.

Don’t forget the dogs that don’t bark. Grain prices are rising everywhere, yet most places do not riot. Why exactly are we blaming global grain prices?

Is there even a sytematic relationship between prices and riots? Mozambique’s violence, and the food riots of 2008, might be evidence that higher prices lead to riots. But we also see riots in periods when there are no price changes, or times of falling prices. In short, we see a lot of riots. I’m almost finished a paper right now that demolishes the myth that falling export prices lead to political instability. I suspect someone could do the same with decent riot and import data. I predict no correlation. My hypothesis? These external shocks are not the real cause of violence, but at best a trigger. And there are no shortage of triggers.

For riots, look to poor policing, not poverty. Whether Jakarta, Toronto, or Maputo, there is no shortage of anger or unrest. Unrest and violence are endemic. It is the escalation of violence we need to explain. If poor places are more likely to be violent, it’s often because states police these places more poorly, not because poor people are more violent.

Look to local policy, not global markets, for the real instability. Bread prices climbed 30% in Maputo, apparently due to Russian wildfires. But global wheat prices have only risen 5%. Why the disproportionate effect? I wish I knew, except I haven’t a single report from the ground that points out the disparity, let alone one that searches for an answer. Government market interference? Poor ports and transport? Speculation or collusion by local traders? Odd quotas or import restrictions? I yearn for real information.

The punchline: Are bread prices the proximate cause of the riots? Probably. Are they the root cause? Unlikely. Are global grain markets to blame? Unclear. How about bad domestic policy? Almost certainly. How about shallow and alarmist journalism about those poor, violent, unwashed nations? There are some things you can bet your life on.

I have come to understand that what I love about Zim, and what makes it such a fascinating place to live in and write about are its myriad contradictions. This, of course, is unappealing to those who have fixed ideas about ‘Mugabe’s Zimbabwe’. But if you are interested in Zim and its many contradictions, stick with me, I will be writing more in the coming months.

That is Petina Gappah on her excellent blog. She is not the only Buddhist in Harare. She is not even a Buddhist. You will have to read the post. I look forward to following the contradictions.

But wait…

But many people remain fiercely attached to their stretching routines. “It was really hard to recruit runners” who, used to stretching, would agree to be randomly assigned to the nonstretching group, said Alan Roth, a former board member of USA Track and Field and coordinator of the study.

Once they understood that they might be required to not stretch for three months, they declined to participate. It took the researchers more than two years to coax enough runners to join and complete the study, generating enough data for meaningful results.

That repetitive knocking sound you hear in the distance is me banging my head against the wall. So the results only apply to people who don’t find they need to stretch? I think we can safely throw generalizability out the window.

Deeper into the article:

One anomalous finding of the USA Track and Field study was that runners who were used to stretching and were assigned to the nonstretching group became injured at a disproportionately high rate.

Yes. An “anomolous” finding indeed. Ah, pesky facts; how you trouble medical science and journalism.

Who knows what the truth is? But if you want to win bets in life, predict the opposite of mediocre research. Five years from now, the headline will read: “Studies show stretching reduces injuries!”

You heard it here first, folks.

Considering it less uncomfortable than other methods of sneaking cellphones into prisons, a Brazilian gang hired a local teenager to launch phones over prison walls with a bow and arrow. Their plot was foiled when one hit a guard.

More.

Chris drew attention yesterday to Ethiopia’s currency devaluation. What was surprising and interesting about this move is that the devaluation was not undertaken under the usual duress of “macroeconomic adjustment.”

Typically, in Africa, macroeconomic and foreign exchange crises have been the trigger for devaluation. A devaluation helps because it increases exports and reduces imports, thereby increasing the foreign exchange position of a country; and it also reduces domestic spending and brings it more in line with a country’s production.

In this instance, however, the devaluation seems to target structural change, to boost the tradable sector so that it can provide the basis for long run growth. Chris thinks that the devaluation—especially since it was unexpected—might create investor uncertainty. So, he sees it as a trade-off between promoting structural change and engendering a climate of uncertainty.

I see it differently. Tradable sectors and exports can indeed be key for development. And sub-Saharan Africa’s tradable sectors are handicapped by aid and natural resource revenues, which tend to promote non-tradable sectors and encourage consumption over production (see the evidence in my paper with Raghu Rajan on this). Moreover, countries in the past that have grown sustainably have had vibrant exports sectors and have had competitive exchange rates (see the evidence in my paper with Simon Johnson and Jonathan Ostry and also in this paper by Dani Rodrik).

So, three slightly different takes on this Ethiopian move would be the following. First, this devaluation can be seen—not as actively favoring or even subsidizing some sectors as it would be in the case of China, for example—but as offsetting a previous distortion (aid and resource revenues).

Second, instead of viewing this as creating investor uncertainty, it can perhaps be seen as a credible and durable pre-commitment to promoting structural change (provided of course future actions are consistent with this move). The private sector can be assured that there would be durable advantage in investing in the tradable sector.

Finally, the devaluation is heartening if it reflects a realization on the part of African policy-makers that the key to development is structural change but one that is brought about in a market-friendly manner rather than in the dirigiste manner of the past. Watch out for more such moves by other countries.

2. More sweatshops for the US and for the developing world

3. iPhone game features heroic fish dodging Gulf spill

4. How to pick an airplane seat

If you are so inclined, the daily links I like get posted to my Twitter and shared items feeds

approximately 25% of all respondents, and larger shares of less educated, less affluent, and minority groups, do not believe their ballot choices are kept secret. Second, 70% of respondents report sharing their vote choices with others. In sum, few people view their vote choices as truly private.

…The expectation that one may reveal one’s vote to others casts a shadow over choices made in the voting booth, opening these choices to the influence of social expectations. Of course, revealing one’s vote choice is not compulsory, but in an environment where there is a norm of sharing political views, the freedom to refuse to discuss one’s vote may be pointless—failing to disclose your vote may effectively reveal it.

Lying about one’s choice or refusing to participate openly in a conversation about the election is always an option, but individuals typically experience discomfort when lying or keeping secrets. In situations where that discomfort is anticipated, voting the “right” way is perhaps the easiest way to avoid having to be secretive or deceptive.

…Consequently, choices in the voting booth may reflect not just personal preferences, but also fears about going against the wishes of those who would learn of one’s vote choices.

That is a new paper from several Yale colleagues: Gerber, Huber, Doherty and Dowling.

Previously I blogged about The Right to Vote, a history of the dubious US franchise. I recall several founding fathers decrying the secret ballot as odious and cowardly. Mostly, though, I enjoyed reading about the election antics that would make an African dictator blush.

I just hope no one passes the book around today; I would hate for this generation’s global thugs to rehash old American ideas.

It reminds us neither the present nor past of American democracy is always what we believe.

Even if you don’t work on anything Ethiopia-related, you should be interested. Why? Here’s the reaction from a leading bank and investment firm in the country:

Given the apparently little justification for a large devaluation from a short-term macroeconomic perspective, we see more longer-term and structural motives for the authorities’ actions. More specifically, we think there is now a conscious effort to experiment with a deliberately undervalued exchange rate (the “China Model” one might call it) and to pursue a more aggressive strategy of import substitution.

Frankly it’s surprising more African nations have not attempted this path. Exchange rates are thought to be grossly overvalued in most countries, making their exports look expensive and other countries’ goods look cheap by comparison. That is not good news for industrial development. Some blame aid for the overvaluation. (See this bit by Raghuram Rajan and Arvind Subramanian.)

Here’s another policy lesson we can all learn from. (It’s time for unintended consequences again.) This one devaluation might look good (say, for exports), but by making an unexpectedly big and unexpectedly timed change, the government has increased the future policy uncertainty. Investors do not like a wildly unpredictable government. A surprise depreciation of 20% leads to a lot of wealth unexpectedly changing hands.

Savers might like the uncertainty ahead even less. If I were a middle class Ethiopian, right now I would be thinking very seriously about pulling my money out of Ethiopian banks and putting them into foreign ones. If the government lets me.

In case it doesn’t show, I am no macroeconomist. Reader opinions? (Especially if you are better informed than me.)

I bet Ethiopia’s neighbors are watching very closely to see if this is a model worth emulating.

Such ecosystems normally develop over million of years through a slow process of co-evolution. By contrast, the Green Mountain cloud forest was cobbled together by the Royal Navy in a matter of decades.

The BBC chronicles Darwin’s little known experiment.

For the uninitiated, instruments are God’s gift to causal identification. Like so many miracles, they are not always what their greatest believers want you to believe. If a journal sends me one more referee assignment where the author grossly misuses instruments, blog rampages will ensue.

The authors try to put an optimistic spin on what is still (at least in political science) a sad state of affairs:

…it is clear that the percentage of articles that provide some justication for the choice of instruments has risen substantially. Articles falling under the “Experiment,” “Natural Experiment,” “Theory,” “Lag,” and “Reference” categories have all risen overtime. Collectively, the articles in these categories have increased from a low of 14% between 1991-1996 to 56% in the most recent period.

…The percentage of articles reporting first stage results increases from a low of 7% between 1991-1996 to 33% between 2003-2008. In absolute terms, there is still much room for improvement, and only a fraction of those who report first-stage results assess statistically whether instruments are weak or whether overidentifying restrictions are satisfied.

The article offers clear guidelines for judging, reporting and refereeing instruments. Most interesting, however is the take-down of the growing use of rainfall as a valid instrument:

…the reason using rainfall as an instrument is intuitively appealing is that we think of rainfall as patternless. It appears that rainfall growth is systematically related to a range of other observable variables, and therefore we have to assume we have just the right covariates in order to isolate the random component of rainfall.

That is the sound of a dozen top papers crumbling?

Absolutely brilliant. Via Gawker, the best military recruitment videos from around the world.

h/t FP Passport.

The United States discovered human rights two years ago or five years ago.  Suddenly it’s the main object and leads to a degree of interference with the policy of other countries which, even if I sympathized with the general aim, I don’t think it’s in the least justified.  People in South Africa have to deal with their own problems, and the idea that you can use external pressure to change people, who after all have built up a civilization of a kind, seems to me morally a very doubtful belief.  But it’s a dominating belief in the United States now.

That is F.A. Hayek, in an interview unearthed by Adam Martin over at Aid Watch.

Human rights trouble me less than their blind acceptance. Not least because of the steadily creeping definition.

Recently I’ve been reading Thomas Pogge, who more or less takes human rights as a starting point for a moral commitment to help the poor. He says many things I find compelling (I will blog the book another time) but I was disappointed to see so much taken seemingly for granted.

Not long ago I discussed Michael Ignatieff’s take: human rights are merely useful, and that is good enough. I find this mostly persuasive. If I had to draw the veil of ignorance, not knowing what role or gender or nationality I would receive, I’d be much relieved by a world with human rights.

This is still a fairly weak basis for a global system of morality and justice (and not, I venture, the reasoning for many rights activists). I also do not have a good answer for my libertarian friends (and the little libertarian influence inside me). This philosophical neophyte welcomes recommended reading.

In addition to running and biking, I have been reading Nancy Clark’s Sports Nutrition Guidebook.

The recommendation, from Owen Barder, is well deserved. At first I picked it up to learn how to eat before and after long runs and bike rides. But it was much more useful as a general nutrition guide (my first attempt since the food pyramid in fifth grade).

One of the more unexpected lessons: if you are hungry in the middle of the afternoon, eat. You’ll have more energy, be less irritable, you won’t overeat and dinner, and you’re less likely to break down and gorge on Reese’s peanut butter cups.

The key: don’t call it a snack, call it a second lunch; you’ll hold yourself to a higher standard and are more likely to eat healthy.

Behavioral nutrition?

Poor economic conditions may lead more able, better-educated individuals to participate in terror attacks, allowing terror organizations to send better-qualified terrorists to more complex, higher-impact, terror missions.

Using the universe of Palestinian suicide terrorists against Israeli targets between the years 2000 and 2006 we provide evidence on the correlation between economic conditions, the characteristics of suicide terrorists and the targets they attack.

High levels of unemployment enable terror organizations to recruit more educated, mature and experienced suicide terrorists who in turn attack more important Israeli targets.

A new working paper from Efraim Benmelech, Claude Berrebi, and Esteban Klor.

This ties with a growing body of evidence that suggests that economic shocks help intensify conflicts but not necessarily increase their likelihood. See also a terrific paper by Oeindrila Dube and Juan Vargas on Colombian paramilitaries and guerrillas here.

The groaning, clattering machines never stop, transforming 12 tons of whole wheat flour every day into nearly a quarter-million discs of flatbread called roti.

…Soupy lentils, three and a third tons of them, bubble away in vast cauldrons, stirred by bearded, barefoot men wielding wooden spoons the size of canoe paddles.

The pungent, savory bite wafting through the air comes from 1,700 pounds of onions and 132 pounds of garlic, sprinkled with 330 pounds of fiery red chilies.

It is lunchtime at what may be the world’s largest free eatery, the langar, or community kitchen at this city’s glimmering Golden Temple, the holiest shrine of the Sikh religion.

More here.

I thought it was an excellent article, but I’m always wary when I get the warm and fuzzies from the NY Times. The feeling can be a fairly reliable barometer for nonsense. Any Sikh readers to weigh in?

UNBRANDED is a series of advertising imagery targeted at African-Americans found in magazines from the late 60s to current day which have been digitally manipulated and appropriated by artist Hank Willis Thomas. He has removed all traces of advertising information like logos, headlines and text, which he hopes encourages viewers to recognise that which has become second nature to our experience of life in the modern world.

” I believe that in part, advertising’s success rests on its ability to reinforce generalisations around race, gender and ethnicity which can be entertaining, sometimes true, and sometimes horrifying, but which at a core level are a reflection of the way culture views itself or its aspirations”

That is Hank Willis Thomas. Half his Unbranded collection is at the Brooklyn Museum. Here is a sample of the collection:

Kori no Suizokukan is located in Kesennuma, Miyagi.