Civitas Institute

Civitas Poll: Voters Prefer Republican Legislature

Civitas Staff — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:19:10 -0500

Republicans Lead Generic Ballot for only 2nd time in 4 years

Raleigh, N.C. – Voters in North Carolina prefer Republicans in charge of the General Assembly according to results of a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 600 likely voters, respondents were asked if the election were held today for state legislature, would they be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate. 40.7 percent of voters preferred Republicans. 37.8 percent said Democrats. 21.5 percent were undecided. This question is often referred to as a “generic ballot” test to gauge the overall sentiment of the voting public towards one party or another.

“For only the second time in the four and a half years that Civitas has been polling North Carolina do we see Republicans leading the generic ballot,” said Civitas Institute senior legislative analyst Chris Hayes. “The tide is certainly with the Republicans at this moment as Democrats have averaged a five point lead on the generic ballot since we began polling.”

The only other time Republicans led on the generic ballot test in North Carolina was in Civitas’ March 2006 poll. In what may not be a coincidence, that poll was taken right after the State Board of Elections completed hearings into the campaign finance irregularities of former Democratic House Speaker Jim Black.

This month’s poll was conducted the week before the State Board of Elections held hearings on former Democratic Governor Mike Easley’s finances.

“It appears these Democratic scandals are having some effects on who the public wants in charge of the state government,” added Hayes. “For Republicans to lead at those two points in time leads me to believe there may be some direct correlation between the events.”

The Civitas Poll is the only monthly live-caller poll of critical issues facing North Carolina. Full results of the poll will be revealed on the Civitas Institute’s Web site at www.nccivitas.org in the coming weeks.

Full text of question:

If the election for North Carolina state legislature were held today, for whom would you be more likely to vote – a Republican candidate or a Democratic candidate?

REPUBLICAN – 40.7%
DEMOCRATIC – 37.8%
UNDECIDED – 21.5%

Click here for full results and crosstabs.

This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted Oct. 20-21, 2009 by McLaughlin and Associates of Alexandria, Virginia. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers.

Interview selection was random within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter distributions in a statewide general election.

The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

Brian Balfour with Scott Fitzgerald - 11/11/09

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:29:02 -0500

Legislators Have Tough Sell On Tax Reform

Chris Hayes — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:06:14 -0500

While many North Carolina voters were heading to the ballot box on November 3 to elect new local government officials, a select group of N.C. House and Senate Finance committee members met in Raleigh to discuss ways of overhauling the state’s tax code. The purported mission of the meeting was to create a way to make state revenue needs less volatile to fluctuating economic changes. In the works is an on-going discussion on how to ensure a stable, fair system of taxation in the state.

Taxpayers’ fear: Those changes to the tax code will only mean higher taxes.

The phrase often uttered when talking about tax reform is “broaden the base and lower the rates.” Meaning more things, like services, downloads and other e-commerce transactions will be taxed while overall sales and income tax rates will be lowered. Many people may be familiar with a proposal being floated in the U.S. Congress called the FairTax (HB 25), which would replace the current monstrosity of a tax code with a national retail sales tax. The tax reform being discussed in Raleigh is similar in idea, although having some key differences – namely, the FairTax eliminates all taxes other than the sales tax. The tax reform proposals being debated in Raleigh will leave almost all forms of taxation in place, albeit with lower rates.

This skepticism is undoubtedly born of the General Assembly’s less than perfect record at keeping its word on taxes. In 2001, in the midst of our last economic downturn, the General Assembly and Gov. Easley implemented “temporary” increases in the sales and income taxes that were supposed to expire after only two years when the economy had recovered. Those taxes were repeatedly extended and eventually a portion of the sales tax increase was made permanent.

This pattern undoubtedly is in voters’ minds when they are polled on tax reform. The North Carolina Senate attempted to pass a version of tax reform within its budget this year. The Senate plan would have reduced state sales, income and corporate taxes, but would have also begun taxing an unspecified variety of services: LLCs franchise tax, Internet downloads like software, iTunes purchases and ringtones. All told, the net increase in taxes would have been more than $500 million, but their idea of reform was eventually scrapped for the promise of revisiting the issue at a later date.

The Civitas Institute has been polling voter opinion on tax reform for much of the year and a consistent theme has occurred – voters are against it. When we first asked voters what they thought about reducing tax rates, yet extending taxes to services like auto repair, home repair and warranties back in May, 57 percent of voters said they were opposed to the idea. When they were told that the tax reform would equate to a $500 million tax increase, opposition spikes. Again when the issue was polled in October, 59 percent of voters said they were opposed to a plan reducing sales and income taxes, but adding taxes to services.

From a purely ideological point of view, fundamental tax reform that eliminates taxes on income and investment and moves towards a consumption-based tax system is something that conservatives can rally around. For the General Assembly’s tax reform to succeed, a vast majority of voters in North Carolina need to be convinced that taxes won’t be raised and the reductions in rates will be permanent in nature. Unfortunately for the General Assembly, its reputation on these issues is severely damaged.

Chris hayes on Robby Kendall - 11/10/09

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:46:42 -0500

October 2009 Poll Results

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:33:06 -0500

Overall, would you say that things in the North Carolina are headed in the right direction, or would you say they are headed off on the wrong track?
Right Direction	30%
Wrong Track	57%
Not Sure	13%

If the election for north carolina state legislature were held today, for whom would you be more likely to vote - a Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Republican	41%
Democratic	39%
Not Sure	20%

What is the most important issue facing the north carolina today

Unemployment/Jobs 39%

Economy 16%

Healthcare 11%

Education 7%

Taxes/Budget/Spending 14%

Other 8%

Not Sure 5%

What is the most important issue facing the north carolina today
Unemployment/Jobs	39%
Economy	16%
Healthcare	11%
Education	7%
Taxes/Budget/Spending	14%
Other	8%
Not Sure	5%

Now, I am going to read you a list of names. Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each person? If you have no opinion or have never heard of the person, just say so. "Barack Obama"
Very Favorable	37%
Somewhat Favorable	12%
Somewhat Unfavorable	10%
Very Unfavorable	37%
Not Sure	4%

"Bev Perdue"

Very Favorable 15%

Somewhat Favorable 22%

Somewhat Unfavorable 18%

Very Unfavorable 32%

Not Sure 13%
"Mike Easley"

Very Favorable 12%

Somewhat Favorable 17%

Somewhat Unfavorable 12%

Very Unfavorable 36%

Not Sure 23%

"Bev Perdue"
Very Favorable	15%
Somewhat Favorable	22%
Somewhat Unfavorable	18%
Very Unfavorable	32%
Not Sure	13%

"Mike Easley"
Very Favorable	12%
Somewhat Favorable	17%
Somewhat Unfavorable	12%
Very Unfavorable	36%
Not Sure	23%

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president?
Strongly Approve	33%
Somewhat Approve	17%
Somewhat Disapprove	11%
Strongly Disapprove	37%
Not Sure	2%

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that bev perdue is doing as governor?
Strongly Approve	12%
Somewhat Approve	31%
Somewhat Disapprove	17%
Strongly Disapprove	32%
Not Sure	8%

Would you say bev perdue is a liberal, moderate or conservative in her political beliefs?

Liberal 42%

Moderate 31%

Conservative 9%

Not Sure 18%

Would you say bev perdue is a liberal, moderate or conservative in her political beliefs?
Liberal	42%
Moderate	31%
Conservative	9%
Not Sure	18%

In general, are you most concerned about economic issues, like taxes, the budget, the economy and jobs; social issues like education, social security, the environment and health care; world affairs and national security issues such as the war in iraq, terrorism, illegal immigration and border security, or moral issues like abortion, school prayer, and gay marriage?
Economic Issues	56%
Social Issues	21%
Moral Issues	13%
World Affairs/National Security	7%
Not Sure	3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the health care plan being proposed by Barack Obama and Congress?
Strongly Approve	23%
Somewhat Approve	17%
Somewhat Disapprove	6%
Strongly Disapprove	44%
Not Sure	10%

From the following list, which best describes your level of support for President Barack Obama's agenda for our country?
Support 100%	19%
Support Most of It	22%
Support More Than Oppose	9%
Oppose More Than Support	15%
Oppose Most of It	14%
Oppose 100%	19%
Not Sure	2%

From the following list, which best describes your level of support for governor bev perdue's agenda for north carolina?
Support 100%	7%
Support Most of It	18%
Support More Than Oppose	17%
Oppose More Than Support	19%
Oppose Most of It	17%
Oppose 100%	11%
Not Sure	11%

if the election were held today, which one of the following best describes how you are likely to vote in the election for united states senate between Richard Burr, the Republican candidate, and Elaine Marshall, the Democratic candidate?
Definitely Burr	33%
Probably Burr	8%
Lean Burr	3%
Definitely Marshall	18%
Probably Marshall	9%
Lean Marshall	6%
Not Sure	23%

Which party do you think can best handle each of the following issues: "Creating jobs and improving the economy"
Democrats	38%
Republicans	36%
Both	6%
Neither	13%
Not Sure	7%

Which party do you think can best handle each of the following issues: "Improving public education"
Democrats	44%
Republicans	33%
Both	4%
Neither	10%
Not Sure	9%

Which party do you think can best handle each of the following issues: "Fighting corruption and restoring honesty and integrity to North Carolina state government"
Democrats	29%
Republicans	32%
Both	8%
Neither	22%
Not Sure	9%

Which party do you think can best handle each of the following issues: "Controlling spending and holding the line on taxes"
Democrats	27%
Republicans	43%
Both	5%
Neither	17%
Not Sure	8%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Governor Bev Perdue spending $80,000 to go on a trade mission to Japan and China"
Strongly Approve	9%
Somewhat Approve	12%
Somewhat Disapprove	14%
Strongly Disapprove	58%
Not Sure	7%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Allowing illegal immigrants to enroll in North Carolina community colleges"
Strongly Approve	11%
Somewhat Approve	14%
Somewhat Disapprove	12%
Strongly Disapprove	58%
Not Sure	5%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Granting millions of dollars in tax breaks to companies, like Dell, to locate in North Carolina"
Strongly Approve	19%
Somewhat Approve	26%
Somewhat Disapprove	14%
Strongly Disapprove	30%
Not Sure	11%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Changing sex education laws in North Carolina to allow 5th graders to be taught that homosexuality is an acceptable lifestyle"
Strongly Approve	11%
Somewhat Approve	9%
Somewhat Disapprove	10%
Strongly Disapprove	65%
Not Sure	5%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Giving tax credits to parents of special needs children to allow them to send their kids to private schools"
Strongly Approve	41%
Somewhat Approve	28%
Somewhat Disapprove	7%
Strongly Disapprove	15%
Not Sure	9%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Allowing people who have been convicted of drunk driving four times to get their driver's license back"
Strongly Approve	3%
Somewhat Approve	4%
Somewhat Disapprove	9%
Strongly Disapprove	80%
Not Sure	4%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Increasing the gas tax by 2 cents per gallon"
Strongly Approve	6%
Somewhat Approve	11%
Somewhat Disapprove	11%
Strongly Disapprove	67%
Not Sure	5%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "allowing convicted murderers to challenge a death sentence by claiming race was a factor in sentencing"
Strongly Approve	9%
Somewhat Approve	11%
Somewhat Disapprove	9%
Strongly Disapprove	62%
Not Sure	9%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Requiring state employees who smoke or who are overweight to pay more for their health insurance"
Strongly Approve	16%
Somewhat Approve	17%
Somewhat Disapprove	13%
Strongly Disapprove	44%
Not Sure	10%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Cutting state employee pay by one-half of a percent in order to help close a state budget deficit"
Strongly Approve	21%
Somewhat Approve	16%
Somewhat Disapprove	13%
Strongly Disapprove	45%
Not Sure	4%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Raising the state sales tax by a one cent and raising taxes by $1.1 billion dollars"
Strongly Approve	12%
Somewhat Approve	10%
Somewhat Disapprove	11%
Strongly Disapprove	63%
Not Sure	4%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Cutting teacher pay by one-half of a percent in order to help close a state budget deficit"
Strongly Approve	7%
Somewhat Approve	8%
Somewhat Disapprove	13%
Strongly Disapprove	66%
Not Sure	6%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Raising the state sales tax by a one cent and raising taxes by $992 million dollars"
Strongly Approve	8%
Somewhat Approve	12%
Somewhat Disapprove	9%
Strongly Disapprove	63%
Not Sure	8%

Would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each of the following? "Allowing illegal immigrants to enroll in North Carolina community colleges"
Strongly Approve	11%
Somewhat Approve	14%
Somewhat Disapprove	12%
Strongly Disapprove	58%
Not Sure	5%

Do you support or oppose a plan by the general assembly that would reform the state's tax code by lowering the state's sales and income taxes but would begin charging sales tax on services like auto repair, home repair and warranties?
Strongly Support	12%
Somewhat Support	16%
Somewhat Oppose	14%
Strongly Oppose	45%
Not Sure	13%

Do you support or oppose the death penalty for convicted murderers?

Strongly Support 50%

Somewhat Support 18%

Somewhat Oppose 7%

Strongly Oppose 17%

Not Sure 8%

Do you support or oppose the death penalty for convicted murderers?
Strongly Support	50%
Somewhat Support	18%
Somewhat Oppose	7%
Strongly Oppose	17%
Not Sure	8%

How closely have you been following the news stories regarding the scandals of former Governor Mike Easley and his wife's job at North Carolina State University?
Very Closely	21%
Somewhat Closely	46%
Not Closely at All	29%
Not Sure	4%

Given your knowledge of the scandals involving former Gov. Mike Easley, would you say that it will make you more likely or less likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in North Carolina? if it would not make a difference, just say so.
Much More Likely	3%
Somewhat More Likely	2%
Somewhat Less Likely	3%
Much Less likely	16%
No Difference	70%
Not Sure	6%

Regarding the governments role in the economy, which of the following opinions comes closest to your own personal opinion? 1. (some/other) people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. 2. (other/some) people think that government should be more involved in solving our country's problems.
Do Too Many Things	61%
More Involved	31%
Not Sure	8%

When it comes to improving education, which of the following could the governor and the state legislature do that would help the most?
Reduce Class Size	22%
Increase Teacher Pay	20%
Classroom Discipline	17%
Competency Exams	14%
Give Parents More Choices	12%
Increase Days in School Year	4%
Raise Drop Out Age to 18	4%
Not Sure	7%

If legislators must make education cuts would you prefer teacher layoffs or increased class sizes?
Teacher Layoffs	8%
Class Size Increases	67%
Not Sure	25%

All things being equal, between the following two candidates for the state legislature, for whom are you more likely to vote? 1. a candidate who voted to raise taxes to protect education funding, or, 2. a candidate who voted to cut education funding to avoid raising taxes
Raise Taxes	59%
Cut Education Funding	28%
Not Sure	13%

When you think about state spending which bothers you more earmarks, pork-barrel spending, or wasteful spending?
Wasteful Spending	67%
Pork-Barrel Projects	19%
Earmarks	9%
Not Sure	5%

Which of the following examples of state spending do you think is most wasteful? $7 million for a cooking school in Charlotte $25 million for a fishing pier in the Outer Banks $3 million dollars for a solar-powered visitor's center $40,000 for 1,000 crab-pots $2.1 million to dig up an old pirate ship
Pirate Ship	35%
Fishing Pier	24%
Crab-pots	11%
Cooking School	9%
Visitor's Center	7%
Not Sure	14%

when you think about the new state budget, what part bothers you most? 1. the state increasing taxes by $1 billion including increases in the income tax, sales tax and taxes on small businesses, 2. the cutting education funding by $255 million dollars including, laying off over 6000 teachers and raising class sizes, or, 3. wasteful spending on pork-barrel projects like a $25 million dollar fishing pier.
Pork-barrel projects	50%
Cut education funding	29%
Increasing taxes	17%
Not Sure	4%

which of the following best describes the effect of the economy on your personal or family's finances?
Getting Better	9%
About the Same	42%
Getting Worse	47%
Not Sure	2%

When it comes to you and your family's own personal finances, which of the following would help you and your family the most?
Create jobs/economy	24%
Lower state taxes	17%
Lower property taxes	16%
Increase Salaries	15%
Health Care Affordable	12%
Save For Retirement	5%
College Affordable	4%
Public Works Projects	4%
Don't Know	3%

If you had to choose only one, which of the following tax increases would have the greatest negative financial impact on you and your family's financial well-being? An increase in the...
Income Tax	45%
Gas tax	30%
Sales tax	20%
Not Sure	5%

In your opinion, how long will it take for the economy to improve and for the recession to end?
Less Than 6 Months	3%
6 Months to 1 Year	15%
a year to 2 years	28%
Over 2 Years	50%
Not Sure	4%

When thinking about the economy, which of the following do you think is the best indicator to determine if things are improving?
Lower unemployment	63%
Stock market rising	10%
Your taxes going down	8%
Your income going up	6%
Home prices going up	5%
Low Inflation	4%
Not Sure	4%

Now, I am going to read you facts about the recently passed state budget. For each of the following facts regarding the recently passed state budget, would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each? "Raising the state corporate income tax on small businesses by 3 percent"
Strongly Approve	9%
Somewhat Approve	10%
Somewhat Disapprove	21%
Strongly Disapprove	54%
Not Sure	7%

Now, I am going to read you facts about the recently passed state budget. For each of the following facts regarding the recently passed state budget, would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each? "Raising the state tax on beer and wine sales and raising the tax on a pack of cigarettes by 25 cents"
Strongly Approve	44%
Somewhat Approve	21%
Somewhat Disapprove	8%
Strongly Disapprove	21%
Not Sure	6%

For each of the following facts regarding the recently passed state budget, would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each? "The recently passed budget will layoff between 4,000 and 6,000 teachers"
Strongly Approve	5%
Somewhat Approve	4%
Somewhat Disapprove	15%
Strongly Disapprove	70%
Not Sure	6%

For each of the following facts regarding the recently passed state budget, would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each? "The recently passed budget will increase the income tax by 2% on everyone making more than $60,000 dollars a year and by 3% on individuals making more than $100,000 a year"
Strongly Approve	22%
Somewhat Approve	18%
Somewhat Disapprove	12%
Strongly Disapprove	49%
Not Sure	9%

For each of the following facts regarding the recently passed state budget, would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each? "The recently passed budget closes 7 prisons"
Strongly Approve	7%
Somewhat Approve	8%
Somewhat Disapprove	15%
Strongly Disapprove	56%
Not Sure	14%

Now, I am going to read you facts about the recently passed state budget. For each of the following facts regarding the recently passed state budget, would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each? "The recently passed budget cuts education spending in the classroom by over $500 million dollars"
Strongly Approve	6%
Somewhat Approve	6%
Somewhat Disapprove	16%
Strongly Disapprove	64%
Not Sure	8%

Now, I am going to read you facts about the recently passed state budget. For each of the following facts regarding the recently passed state budget, would you please tell me if you approve or disapprove of each? "Raising the state tax on beer and wine sales and raising the tax on a pack of cigarettes by 25 cents"
Strongly Approve	44%
Somewhat Approve	21%
Somewhat Disapprove	8%
Strongly Disapprove	21%
Not Sure	6%

Now, regarding the recently passed state budget, which of the following two opinions comes closest to your own personal opinion? 1. (some/other) people say the Democrats in the state legislature and the governor passed a responsible state budget that cut excess spending and wasteful programs. they say they made difficult ... 2. (other/some) people say the Democrats in the state legislature and the governor passed an irresponsible budget that cut millions of dollars from essential services, like education and ...
Responsible	26%
Irresponsible	57%
Not Sure	17%

Do you or does anyone in your household currently own a hand gun, rifle, shotgun or other firearm?

Yes 49%

No 42%

Not Sure 9%
On the issue of abortion, would you consider yourself to be pro-life or pro-choice?

Pro-life 49%

Pro-choice 44%

Not Sure 7%
Do you consider yourself to be part of the Evangelical Christian Conservative movement also known as the Religious Right?

yes 35%

no 58%

Not Sure 7%

Chris Hayes on Lockwood Phillips 10-30-09

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:56:11 -0500

Chris Hayes on Robbie Kendall - 10/26/09

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:08:43 -0500

Civitas Poll: Support for Health Care Bill Continues to Decline

Chris Hayes — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:08:07 -0500

Raleigh, N.C. – N.C. voters are continuing to lose support for the current health care bill set to be voted upon in the U.S. Congress this week according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 600 likely voters, 49.3 percent of voters said they disapproved of the current health care plan being proposed by President Obama and Congress. Of the remaining who were polled, 40.3 percent of them said they supported the plan and 10.3 percent said they had no opinion.

In Civitas’ September polling, 47.6 percent of voters said they supported the health care plan while 47.0 percent said they opposed it.

“The more voters learn about what is included in the health care reform proposal, the more the opposition grows,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.

When looking at the partisan breakdown of the survey, support for the bill comes only from Democrats (64.8 – 20.8 percent). Republicans (12.6 – 81.8 percent), as well as unaffiliated voters (30.9 – 59.6 percent) stand it stark opposition to the bill.

“Democrats in Washington stand the very distinct chance of alienating a wide range of middle-of-the-road voters if they shove through the health care reform bill as it stands now,” added Hayes. “Those same unaffiliated voters who gave the Democrats their Congressional majority now stand firmly opposed to the path being taken.”

Full text of question:

Do you approve or disapprove of the health care plan being proposed by Barack Obama and Congress?

APPROVE – 40.3%
   Strongly Approve – 23.2%
   Somewhat Approve – 17.2%
DISAPPROVE – 49.3%
   Somewhat Disapprove – 5.8%
   Strongly Disapprove – 43.5%
DON’T KNOW – 10.3%

Click here for full results and crosstabs.

Interview selection was random within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter distributions in a statewide general election.

The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

###

Civitas Poll: Voters Oppose Tax Reform Plan

Civitas Staff — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:21:26 -0500

2:1 Against Taxing Service While Lowering Rates

Raleigh, N.C. – With the N.C. House and Senate Finance Committees set to convene in Raleigh tomorrow to debate reforming the state’s tax code, a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute shows that a majority of voters are opposed to the central plank of the plan – reducing state sales and income taxes while extending the sales tax to services.

According to the poll of 600 likely voters, 58.5 percent said they would oppose a plan by the N.C. General Assembly that would reform the state’s tax code by lowering the state’s sales and income taxes but would begin charging sales tax on services like auto repair, home repair and warranties. Only 27.8 percent of voters indicated support for the plan and 13.7 percent said they were unsure.

“Legislators face an uphill battle in attempting to convince North Carolina voters of their plan to reform the state’s tax code,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes. “By a 2-to-1 margin, voters are opposed to a reform plan that would supposedly lower the rates but expand the base.”

Opposition to the tax reform proposal has been consistent throughout the year according to Civitas poling results. In May, 51 percent said they opposed the proposal in a Civitas poll.

Similar polling this summer found that the little support the plan has drops considerably if rates are not lowered or if overall taxes are increased similar to a proposal floated by the N.C. Senate earlier this year.

“Voters are skeptical of any move by the legislators to ‘reform’ the tax code. Having been lied to repeatedly about the expiration of supposed temporary taxes, voters have little faith in the General Assembly when it comes to taxes,” added Hayes.

Full text of question:

Do you support or oppose a plan by the General Assembly that would reform the state’s tax code by lowering the state’s sales and income taxes but would begin charging sales tax on services like auto repair, home repair and warranties?

SUPPORT – 27.8%
Strongly Support – 12.0%
Somewhat Support – 15.8%
OPPOSE – 58.5%
Somewhat Oppose – 14.0%
Strongly Oppose – 44.5%
DON’T KNOW – 13.7%

Click here for full results and crosstabs.

This poll of 600 likely general election voters in North Carolina was conducted October 20-21, 2009 by McLaughlin and Associates of Alexandria, Virginia. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers.

Interview selection was random within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter distributions in a statewide general election.

The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

###

Civitas Poll: Burr Leads Marshall

Chris Hayes — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:47:20 -0400

Raleigh, N.C. – Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Richard Burr holds a 10-point lead over potential Democratic rival, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, according to a new poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

The live caller poll of 600 likely 2010 voters revealed that 43.7 percent of them would support Burr while 33.0 percent said they would support Marshall. Undecided voters tallied 23.3 percent of the answered poll question.

Burr’s base of support was much more solid than Marshall’s. Decided voters revealed that 33.2 percent of them were “definitely” voting for Burr, but only 18.2 percent of voters said they were “definitely” supporting Marshall.

“Burr is in a very good position right now relative to his potential rival,” said Civitas Institute Executive Director Francis De Luca. “Not only does he lead by 10 points, but his base of support is nearly twice as strong as Marshall’s. In fact, more voters are solidly in Burr’s camp than show support for Marshall.”

Burr’s advantage is in his strong support among his base Republican voters (79-6) and by holding a strong lead among unaffiliated voters (47-24). Meanwhile, Marshall has not solidified her base of support and is garnering only slightly more than half of Democratic voters (57-17).

“Democratic voters have not rallied around Marshall as the candidate to challenge Burr as of yet,” added De Luca. “Burr has his base solidly locked up and he can spend the next year chasing swing voters. Marshall does not have that luxury and will have to spend critical time and resources locking up her base.”

Full text of question:

If the election were held today, which one of the following best describes how likely you are to vote in the election for United State Senate between Richard Burr, the Republican candidate, and Elaine Marshall, the Democratic candidate?

TOTAL BURR – 43.7%
   Definitely Burr – 33.2%
   Probably Burr – 7.7%
   Lean Burr – 2.8%
TOTAL MARSHALL – 33.0%
   Definitely Marshall – 18.2%
   Probably Marshall – 8.5%
   Lean Marshall – 6.3%
UNDECIDED – 23.3%

Click here for full results and crosstabs.

Interview selection was random within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter distributions in a statewide general election.

The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.

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On the issue of abortion, would you consider yourself to be pro-life or pro-choice?
Pro-life	49%
Pro-choice	44%
Not Sure	7%