January is renown within the auto industry for being slow for car sales, with dealers trying to shed their last remaining inventory from the previous year and with generally good discounts available for those who want to venture but even these tactics with added incentives hasn’t bolstered the sales. The sale of vehicles in Orange County has already suffered a dramatic drop in 2007 by 9.2% and coming into the new year it was forecast that this year would fair no better with an additional 3.1% decline, that was before the January report.

The dramatic change in sales reported by the Orange County Auto dealers for January 2008 compared to January 2007 goes like this; 12,822 this year, 17,936 in January 2007 and this is not restricted to large SUVs and pickups, it covers the whole spectrum of vehicles. Every segment of the industry has reported a loss, popular vehicles and brand Toyota/Scion a winner in Orange County down by a whopping 35.8% and that’s with the most fuel efficient vehicles in the industry. Luxury brands like Lexus, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche and Cadillac plunging between 28.6% to 42.9% leaving none of the most popular brands unscathed, Chevrolet bottomed out with a 38% loss while Ford fell 22.3%

Is this a true indication of a pending recession, gas prices are on the rise again, my local garage has raised the price 12 cents over the past two days with regular now poised at $3.35 a gallon and the summer months are not upon us yet, does this means we’re in for $4.00 a gallon this summer.

The housing slump is firmly entrenched and with pay rises few and far between little can be had to combat the raising cost of living but out of this mire a few bright stars still managed to eek out a profit. Buick, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Mazda and Infiniti were the only brands to see a sales increase ranging from 42.9% to 0.4% so go figure that one out.

This is not a unique situation proposed by the beach community, as other cities throughout the United States have already adopted this stance with the city of Los Angeles being one of them. We all know that hybrid vehicles have been snapped up in their hundreds of thousands over the past couple of years with the Toyota Prius enjoying much of the action and like many other alternative fuel vehicles they already enjoy riding the carpool lane, free parking would just have been icing on the cake for these Huntington Beach locals. We can all relate to the current drive to conserve the nations precious resources and reduce the reliance on foreign oil but a quick decision to reward the few in prime parking would have been wasteful in terms of reduced revenue to the city, fortunately it did not pass.

The first thing that I have to asked myself is, why open such a can of worms, everyone in their own right does their bit to conserve energy, turning down the thermostat at home or be it just recycling bottles and cans and even the daily newspaper. Singling out a small percentage of the population who have chosen to purchase a hybrid vehicle because it’s a high profile statement does not warrant an extra pat on the back in my opinion and I’m fully behind this decision to reject the proposal.

I’m sure many families would like to show their support by doing the same thing but money constraints and family size restricts that kind of commitment leaving them no alternative but to shuttle their families in less desirable, larger vehicles with poor gas mileage. A suitable energy source that can benefit everyone is the only answer, be it battery powered or hydrogen powered or whatever powered.

The main problem is infrastructure to sustain this new system and can this new system provide the distance between fill-ups or charge-ups that current gasoline engines provide. What system will be in place when there is a large disposal of batteries to take into consideration, what about safety procautions etc, etc. To suggest a new fuel or propulsion alternative is a huge undertaking, remember at the onset of the automobile we were starting with a clean slate, only horse mess to clean up.

I know I’ve run off at a tangent, so back to the point, I’m glad that a short term solution was averted even though it was a valid consideration to promote a green cause but until that cause is sustainable let’s keep the money for parking and put it to a far better cause, like, repairing the roads!

With this news I can only assume that the Mercedes Benz group has purchased the Carlsbad facility with all equipment and machinery pre-installed from the previous owner, that means up to five surface plates, prototype build capabilities and spray booth. All this will allow the design team to present fullsize mock-up models entirely in house but this pending move from Irvine is an additional 50+ miles south so what does that mean to the existing workforce you may well ask.

The first thing that comes to mind is a relocation package of some description, I would want my team to be relatively close to reduce travel fatigue but look at the housing market at present, there’s little in way of movement. OK it’s summer, it’s the best time to move the kids, they’re out of school they can adapt but can I sell the house?

I wouldn’t want that headache going on straight away, trying to adjust the family to the new surroundings, leaving friends, schools and trying to familiarize myself with the new facility so I wouldn’t worry about that right now, I’ll just do the commute until things settle down then decide what’s best, no point in jumping too soon. For those with apartments and no commitments it’s a no brainer, just move.

Secondly if you don’t like the move I guess you can leave so I would imagine some type of severance pay for the hardcore who are dead against the move but for me, moving to larger premises is going to be fun. Plenty of room to move, fullsize models, the works, sounds good to me. So taking that all into consideration I would imagine that everyone will be filing their drawings or should I say archiving their images, cleaning tools and finalizing the current projects ready for an early July start.

So who would have been instrumental in this move?

I would imagine it would have been the newly appointed head of Strategic Advanced Design for Mercedes-Benz Cars, Gorden Wagener. Being already stationed here with the advanced group he would have seen the potential and cost saving in taking over an already turnkey operation and no doubt had visions for long term growth. This substantial facility is three times larger than his previous one so with that in mind I’m assuming there will be a significant amount of additional work in the very near future leading to a requirement of hiring new talent from all disciplines. That means designers, modelers and fabricators to shape those future products.

So what will happen to the old facility?

Who knows, the official word is it’s undecided but maybe with a bit of luck a start-up group will take it over, we’ll just have to wait and see.

This long anticipated vehicle totally fits the bill and more, making you salivate as you pass your eyes over the sleek body panels and crisp lines with little in distracting from the original concept. The fit and finish was exceptionally good with only minor interference fit between door panel and dash but with seven months to go before full production these small flaws have plenty of time to be ironed out.

A couple of items that did standout to me were a jet black XM satellite antenna that stood proudly at the rear of the roof panel and a couple of rectangular reversing lamps that broke up the rear panel in an otherwise clean, tastefully executed design. This yellow RS version sported 20 inch rims on 245 front and 275 rear rubber together with the V6 six speed 304 horsepower engine good for 26 mpg. For the total enthusiast the high performance SS comes with a 6.2L V8 good for 422 horses manually equipped or 400 horses with a six speed automatic, either way they’re both going to plant your pants decidedly in your seat!

The interior carried the same modern heritage as the concept vehicle but more toned down with dark gray leather with silver bezels, inserts and silver stitching to compliment the seats. Interior space was suitable for a five foot seven person to sit comfortably in the rear seat with their head just touching the headlining but for a vehicle that is typical used as a two seater with occasional rear occupancy this sports car offers the ability to actual have passengers.

You may be thinking with today’s emphasis on better gas mileage one could argue that the timing is a bit off but what we have to realize is people are leaving their SUV’s and pickup trucks in droves with their 14-18 mpg at best so to move to a vehicle that gets 26 mpg or better it’s an instant fifty percent improvement and cool to boot.

Now I ask when considering your next purchase what would you rather have, a Camry or a Camaro?

This February has seen a dramatic drop in sales of SUVs as the bite of high gasoline prices rip into the family budget but Porsche beg to differ with their truck sales exploding to a 109.7% over the same period last year. This anomaly is at the expense of their car division which dropped 40.3% over last year leaving the sportscar company down 12.8% for the month of February.

With every auto manufacturer feeling the economic pinch, total sales in North America for the year are down by a 120,000 units or 5.3% so far, so what does this all mean for us the clay modeler.

As the auto industry continues its downward spiral with less sales and ultimately less profit we could find the purse strings being tightened even further. That means design facilities could well see overtime reduced to save on premium payments but not necessary less work to be done. Programs could be reduced, shelved or even cancelled as the product planning groups rethink their strategy on the best product to pursue whilst indicision on current programs reduces productivity to a crawl. All this negativity on the economy will put a strain on the creative juices especially when a winning design is needed right now to gain maximium traction.

Currently the new product lead time is from 36 to 48 months before it hits the road and for some that may be too late. Take for instance the Chevy Camaro that debut at the NAIAS in January 2006 and is on the fast track to hit showrooms as a 2009 model year. Will this vehicle still have the massive following that it had early on when fuel was only $2.00 a gallon, by the time it does become available that $2.00 could well be doubled.

The new vehicle programs that have just finished, are they the right product? Typically in times of uncertainty studios have ramped up their development programs because the right product is not always clear cut leading to many iterations of a theme, demand is usually greater for sculptors, designers and engineers. Product development cannot afford to go on the back burner in fear of losing even more market share to the competitors, it is a vicious circle, so for the clay modeler I can see boom times ahead once more.

February may have been another bad sales month because of all the underlying problems but development must go on so let’s lighten up and check out some of the fun videos on YouTube.com. A bit of fun and plenty of laughter goes a long way in cheering you up and with the beginnings of a new week just around the corner, who knows, there may even be some good news!

The sad part of this story is, California is one of the leaders in setting trends due to its diverse nature and for the studio to be moved to Detroit is a big blow to the staff and possibly future products. Today the need for a competitve edge is paramount and without this Californian studio it could well accelerate the final chapter in their rocky existence. Chrysler was one of the first to recognize the importance of California as a forward thinking and cultural melting pot, allowing it to cash in on the latest trends but recent years have seen a dramatic downturn in fortune resulting in a marriage with Mercedes Benz and most recently a divorce. The recent takeover by Cerberus could well see a piece mealing of the car company in years to come especially if profitability looks unlikely.

I’m sure the surviving studios of Ford and GM are monitoring these events with a bated breath, considering whether to consolidate themselves as the continual squeeze on product sales erode away their market share. Without sales profits are slim leaving little to invest in future products let alone a standalone studio but that frontier studio could well be the difference between success and failure, given the latitude to design.

Still, with the dust up in the air only time will tell whether this was a move of genius or a move of desperation, either way as I see it, it’s one less quality design facility in Southern California.

For us in the Research and Development field all we can do is continue to model the visions that are offered hoping to hit a chord with the higher management who do have a pulse on today’s trends or do they?

My thoughts on this are, can the larger manufacturers especially ones that have relied heavily on SUVs for so long (GM, Ford, Chrysler) design and bring to market a desirable alternative that will satisfy a now pro-green consumer.

People right now demand that their vehicles offer good mileage and can automatically relate to hybrids because of this fact, even if they have to pay a premium for that privilege. If a desirable vehicle meets this level of expectation and is frugal on the gas consumption, without being a hybrid, such as the Scion Brand, Civic, Versa and such like, this would be an automatic second choice for people on less of a budget who could not afford the premium for a hydrid. These offerings by the Asian companies fit the bill and have reliability built in because they are not first generation vehicles and have been refined over time. If the American counterparts balance their portfolio with better offerings surely the brakes can be put on the rapid decline of these once proud companies.

What is needed is a succession of innovative vehicles to whet the palate of todays jaded buyers who need reminding that American design is still alive and it doesn’t have to be the biggest to be the best. Safety, build quality and style will sell these vehicles albeit in a smaller package but once again this decision is in the hands of upper management. Produce a vehicle that can go head to head with the best, forget the parts bin and be innovative, set the trends rather than follow then there will be a future.

We as sculptors ARE the conduit between fantasy and reality and all we need is that green light, the go ahead, couple this with a strong design and there’s no telling where it will go but at least it is a shot. We as sculptors are an integral part of the design process and not just design support so now is as good a time as any to work as a team and produce that winning product. NOW before it is too late.

The preliminary drawings that once use to accompany the chosen design are also rarely put into force and on many occasions the milled out model will not be followed up with a fullsize drawing simply because it is assumed that the data is correct because it has been developed with the latest software. This essentially eliminates the instant check in providing the sculptors the basic whereabouts of engineering criteria within those lines of the milled model. Thus this method of working eliminates the first line of defense for checking such areas as wheel coverage, ramp angles, headroom, rocker height and such like.

It is only when the design becomes a little more “real” that this starts to become a major factor but the freedom of design and the cartoon aspect that accompanies this freedom eats into the real work of refining a surface. So let’s step back and take a look at this picture, take a deep breathe and let the dust settle a little instead of rushing full-bore into the next panic situation. We as modern day sculptors have seen the erosion of our skills that we have perfected over the past 30 plus years as the digital era eliminates many of the more time consuming tasks but it is also replacing many of the areas that we also excel in.

You may well ask is this the same for every company and I am sure it is not, every company moves at a different pace. In a fast technology driven company you have to embrace the technology to work together with the tried and trusted methods to get the best results. For instance, would you go through the task of creating a cutter path to mill out a cylinder on a five axis machine when it is a simple task to turn it on a lathe? The real underlying factor is to reduce costs at all cost to become more competitive and still squeeze out a profit and if that means reducing labor in favor of technology then technology wins.

So with the New Year upon us, let’s reflect on those trades that have fell by the wayside such as Patternmaking and Modelmaking and the supporting services that they impacted such as Record tools and Emmert. These fine trades were in their prime fifty years ago and are now but memories, victims of the computer age.

For us clay modeling is thriving but as technology advances and the tolerances get closer it’s a case of when, not if, the manual side of clay modeling will be the next to go?

With the aid of Jacques Flynn, a full time Mazda designer she was able to express her needs to capture the essence and vision of a vehicle that could well be the next Mazda3. Design lines that screamed Mazda DNA and yet still fresh enough to capture ones imagination.

Talking to Franz von Holzhausen on the second press day while the model was in full swing, I asked whether the main volume had been modeled at the Mazda main studio. I already new that it had but wanted him to inject his take on this novel approach to car design. He said that the overall basic shape had been put in place purely because the amount of space needed to store the clay and amount of time needed to pack the buck before design could begin. He wanted the time allocated at the motor show purely for design development. This meant that the changes we would see at the motor show would be controlled and materials needed to capture these changes were at a minimum.

A small clay oven and four or five boxes of Faber Clay Light, 3rd Generation would support any changes each day, keeping the modeling area relatively free from clutter.

The measuring equipment to control the dimensional integrity of the model would be supported by two free standing portable Tokyo Boeki CMM machines with digital readouts. Any dimensions taken would have to be hand written co-ordinates to keep the sophistication to a minimum and manually spotted into the clay surface.

These machines can be leveled to any environment and providing these machines are indexed off of a set co-ordinate on the model and are square to the front of the model or parallel to the center axis, data can be transferred from one side to the other, ensuring symmetry and dimensional accuracy.

The initial design of the winning sketch created as a tape drawing ready for converting into a three dimentional model. This is where the dream starts to become a reality, an initial package drawing would help to ensure that people can actually be transported within the form. This is no science fiction vehicle, it has to be able to work in real time.

The third scale model is used to explore a lot of ideas in a relatively short space of time whereas if it were a fullsize model those changes would take that much longer. Considering the motor show runs for ten days the design has to be cemented at third scale level to enable the sculpting staff time to create the idea as a fullsize.

Once the scale model is complete I would imagine that point data would have been pointed off the scale model, I say this because I can’t see how you would create the necessary information in the small enclosure that they have at the motor show without a fullsize tape drawing or first milling in the basic form . This picked data would be easily pointed in and the surface then refined to suit before new data can be picked via the touch probe head on one of the Tokyo Boeki machines.

In essence what we will see as a finished article will be a fullsize clay model covered with dinoc film for the 3PM reveal on November 24th 2007. This will be by no means the end of the development, in fact it will show the general proportions of the scale model that can later be refined behind closed doors and probably changed considerably just to keep the public guessing at what is really to come, afterall this design is for 2018!

The public gets to enjoy what really happens at these highly guarded advanced design studios, watching people like Dennis Baker, the sculptor in the image, as he plied his trade. Unless you are prepared to visit every day it is hard to gauge the amount of work required to meet this sort of time frame and especially under the watchful eyes of the public and the cameras.

I for one thoroughly enjoyed speaking with former colleagues such as Dennis Baker and Franz von Holzhausen, I was impressed how Franz during his press conference expressed that this is how we develop our clay models using the experience of the modelers to bring the model to life. It is that understanding between modeler and designer that creates the best design possible in any giving time frame. In this case a time frame that is to say, a little tight!

Now that this normally covert operating has been made public you can now look at any vehicle on the road and say, “I now know how that was developed!”

This bold move by the Mazda think tank believes this approach will bring a whole new perspective to its already best selling car globally, the Mazda3, by hiring the brightest of the participants. The winner will have the priviledge of working with the Design Director of Mazda North America, Franz Von Holzhausen.

This is no ordinary contest, the competition will be tough, a 150 word description of their vision accompanied by a sketch that will be judged by the Mazda designers to hone the field down to ten semi finalists. The final five finalist will be chosen by the Facebook community who then pair up with in house designers to “perfect” their design, may I add, hopefully not to dilute it! The five finished designs will be judged by the Facebook community over a one week period with the winner traveling to Los Angeles to apply the finishing touches with the Mazda Design Team.

Now this is where it gets interesting, this final design will be executed as a fullsize model over the course of the ten day Greater Los Angeles Auto Show. Now does that mean that the model will be created in house and brought to the auto show on the last day or is it going to be modeled on stage over the course of the ten days. A ten day model will represent merely a proportion model that will only give a hint of what’s to come, even so, very exciting times for the winner who gets to unveil the concept and speak about their vision.

Included in the winning package is travel, accomodation, $1000.00 spending money and a brand new Mazda3 but the biggest benefit is the work experience that many people never have the opportunity to live. The opportunity to work with a professional design team, sculptors and a design director in an environment or cauldron should I say where the product has to be complete in two weeks!