But the road to recovery will be uneven. Economists say that an uptick in business spending will lead the way, followed by federal government stimulus projects that will create some jobs. Consumers, unfortunately, are likely to be the last to see good times return, because widespread unemployment – which is now just a notch below 10 percent – won’t start to go down until after the recovery is well under way.

It has been rough, but economists say it’s always that way for Florida.

“It performs better in good times, but during bad times, in recessions, it is one of the worst performing states in the nation,” said Moody’s Economy.com economist Chris Lafakis. “And during times of expansion it is one of the best.”

Some experts say they already see the early signs of such progress.

“The negative numbers just start getting smaller or they stop falling or they fall at a slower rate,” said SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller. It’s like you tumbled out of a boat a while ago and “now we’re at the stage of swimming back to the surface.”

Other economists agree that the worst may be over as soon as this summer. Consumers surely have had enough, judging by the strong jump in Floridians’ consumer confidence this month.

Here’s how economists say the state will find its way out of the slump:

Business-led recovery

Economists say the recovery will begin with an increase in business capital spending, as companies rebuild inventories or upgrade technology or send business travelers back out on the road.

At some South Florida companies, capital spending already has increased and begun to pay off. Last year, Stress Free Corporate Housing, which provides temporary living arrangements for executives, says the audio-visual equipment it installed in its new Weston office is helping to bring in new business.

The firm wanted to hold employee conferences and save on travel expenses. But it also began using the equipment for Webinars – seminars via the Internet – for its clients.

President and Chief Executive Officer Darin Karp said his firm is about to sign a deal with a Fortune 500 company to provide temporary housing for executives from Asia and the Middle East who need to come to Florida for training.

“We’re definitely seeing glimmers of hope off the first quarter and the beginning of this quarter,” Karp said. “We have some big stuff on our plate, and it’s attributed to doing the Webinars.”

Stimulus spending

An increase in government spending is expected in the fourth quarter, as states and cities pump out the $787 billion in federal stimulus money to build roads and other projects. That influx of cash will lead to more jobs, at least in construction.

Even though the stimulus law was enacted in February, government is still crafting detailed plans and regulations for the federal package, so it’s unclear precisely how many millions will be earmarked for Florida.

“We will begin to see some impact of the stimulus legislation in the last quarter of this year,” said economist Antonio Villamil, dean of the School of Business at St. Thomas University.

Confidence rises

Consumer confidence – a measure of how willing people are to spend on big-ticket items – is already rising. The University of Florida consumer confidence survey issued earlier this week showed the index jumped to 71 in April, up from 65 in March, which is close to the low reached during the last recession in 1991.

The importance of the jump is that consumer confidence is a forward-looking economic indicator, one that is often a sign that consumer spending will rise, too.

Employment to lag

Employment rates aren’t expected to rise until recovery of other sectors is under way. Only after growth returns in the overall economy will businesses be comfortable enough to begin to create jobs again. Employment is key to consumers’ recovery. Don’t look for consumer spending to increase until after employment stabilizes, economists say.

“Every business cycle is unique, but they get going in fits and starts,” said economist Manuel Lasaga, president of Strategic Information Analysis in Miami. “This [recovery] will be weaker than normal.” Strong growth, he said, won’t appear until 2010.

And some sectors seem to be hurt so badly, their recovery is not at hand. Surely, housing remains deeply troubled. Manufacturing, too, is waiting for signs of recovery.

“We’re not seeing that [any increase in demand] yet frankly,” said Tom Kennedy, a CPA who is chairman of the South Florida Manufacturers Association. Kennedy is controller of R.L. Schreiber in Pompano Beach, which produces food products for the food service industry. The credit crunch, he said, is making the business environment even more difficult.

When will it end? The economy should begin to pull out of recession around the end of summer, according to several economists. At the latest, look for it early next year, others say.

“We are in the fourth phase of the recession,” said SunTrust’s Miller. That’s the pre-recovery phase, he said. Next is the turnaround.

It’s a little early yet, and the signs are still faint.

“You really have to look long and hard to find any signs of strength in the economy,” said Mark Vitner, Wachovia’s senior economist. “But it’s not so hard to find areas where the economy had been in a free fall and now is just merely declining.”

For those businesses looking forward to the turnaround, they’ve set their sights on year’s end.

“People are getting new budgets for purchasing at the end of the third quarter, the fourth quarter. A lot of lights are coming on,” said Joel Ledlow, chief executive officer of ScheduAll, a Hollywood firm that produces management software systems for broadcasters and media. “People are saying they have cut about as much as they can cut. Now they’re ready for some very strategic investments.”

Reprinted from Sun Sentinel

But Bernanke also said major sectors of the economy remain weak, there will likely be “further sizable job losses,” and the recovery will be slow.

“We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,” he told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

He said he expects unemployment – at 8.5 percent in March – to peak early next year short of 10 percent, but it could stay high for a time.

Some economists have forecast a 10 percent jobless rate.

In February, the Fed chairman predicted a recovery later this year, but on Tuesday, he ticked off fresh signs to back that view. Consumer spending rose 2.2 percent in the first quarter after falling sharply the second half of 2008. And the housing market shows “signs of bottoming,” he said.

While businesses are swiftly liquidating inventories, hurting growth, Bernanke said that clears the way for increased production when demand rebounds. A key index released Tuesday showed service industries shrinking more slowly in April.

Bernanke’s earlier forecast “was much more sketchy,” says Brian Bethune, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

Bernanke said the economy remains weak. Gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of more than 6 percent the past six months. “A relapse in financial conditions” could stall a recovery, he said.

Financial markets are nervously awaiting results of “stress tests” of 19 large banks.

The results, to be released after stock markets close Thursday, are expected to show whether they have enough capital to withstand a worsening economy.

Banks that need more cash will have six months to raise it before tapping government bailout money. A report from Friedman Billings Ramsey predicts at least 11 banks will need more funds.

Bernanke said many should be able to raise equity or use other means to increase their capital without getting more federal money and that he hopes the program “will restore confidence” in banks.

Some are skeptical. “A lot of people who participated when banks raised capital in the last year know what bad investments they turned out to be,” says Alan Villalon of First American Funds.

Reprinted from USAToday.com

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose more than 12 points to 39.2, up from a revised 26.9 in March. The reading marks the highest level since November’s 44.7 and well surpasses economists’ expectations for 29.5.

The consumer confidence survey showed a substantial improvement in consumers’ short-term outlook, including even their assessment of the job picture.

Some encouraging news in areas like retail sales and housing have helped fuel a recent stock rally. Earlier Tuesday, a housing index showed that home prices dropped sharply in February, but for the first time in 25 months the decline was not a record – another sign the housing crisis could be bottoming.

Economists closely monitor consumer sentiment because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Existing home sales rose 30 percent last month with a total of 13,085 homes sold statewide compared to 10,080 homes sold in March 2008, according to FAR. Statewide existing home sales in March were 32.7 percent higher than February’s statewide sales.

Florida Realtors also reported a 25 percent rise in statewide sales of existing condominiums in March, continuing a trend in recent months for higher statewide sales of both the existing home and existing condo markets compared to year-ago levels. Statewide existing condo sales last month increased 37.2 percent over the total units sold in February.

Fifteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing-home sales in March and 13 MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. It marks the ninth consecutive month that a majority of markets have reported increased sales.

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $141,300; a year ago, it was $201,700 for a 30 percent decrease. Industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) report there is a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in February 2009 was $164,600, down 15 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $247,590 in February; in Massachusetts, it was $252,500; in Maryland, it was $253,200; and in New York, it was $210,000.

NAR’s latest housing industry outlook reported that entry-level buyers are seeking bargains, which resulted in sales of distressed properties accounting for 40 to 45 percent of February’s transactions. “Given the downward distortion in price comparisons due to distressed sales, it’s important for owners to keep in mind that this doesn’t equate to a similar loss of value for traditional homes in good condition,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 4,388 units sold statewide compared to 3,503 units in March 2008 for a 25 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $108,700; in March 2008 it was $172,300 for a 37 percent decrease. In the latest data available at press time, NAR reported the national median existing condo price was $172,200 in February 2009.

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5 percent last month, down significantly from the average rate of 5.97 percent in March 2008, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s large to medium-size markets, the Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA reported a total of 539 homes sold in March compared to 445 homes a year ago for a 21 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $123,700; a year ago, it was $159,000 for a 22 percent decrease. In the year-to-year comparison for the existing condo market, a total of 113 units sold in the MSA last month, up 24 percent compared to 91 condos sold the previous March. The market’s existing condo median price was $123,100; a year ago, it was $164,300 for a 25 percent decrease.

Reprinted from the Florida Association of Realtors

The stunt has been in works for months and the grand event was held yesterday evening as thousands watched from the beach. Angel said before the event, “It is going to be one of the biggest, baddest, craziest escapes I have ever done in my career.” Criss vowed to his mother to no longer perform life threatening tricks.

The stunt involved 450 sticks of dynamite, 4,500 tons of cement, hand cuffs, and a helicopter. He had 3 minutes and 30 seconds to exit before the dynamite leveled the building.

Angel says he chose Clearwater because no other city in the country would allow him to perform the dangerous stunt. “We’ve been looking for a building now for nine months, and no one would allow me to be in a building that would be imploding,” he said.

Good work Criss and to the Spyglass Hotel, you will be missed.

Here is a link to Bay News 9 wrap up of Criss Angel’s amazing escape from the implosion.

Here is a blog posting and video from Tampa Bay’s 10 Adam Vance, who was in the vicinity filming reporting from a helicopter.

The city sponsored web site is called BillionDollarBeach.com and appears to be current with the condo, development, and beautification projects underway on Clearwater Beach. The City of Clearwater is planning to be one of world’s most desirable tourist destinations. According to the site, there is more than a billion dollars of investment flowing into the Beach area.

In our opinion, Clearwater, Florida has always been one of the worlds most desirable tourist destinations. The new and “improved” will be more desirable to some and less desirable to others. Only time will tell how Clearwater Beach will end up. We will be watching closely.

Thanks to John Jacobsen for the awesome photo!

We have concluded based upon our preferences the best values are the following:

Harbourside, South Pasadena (St. Petersburg), FL
South Beach I & II, Sand Key (Clearwater Beach), FL
Envoy Point East, St. Pete Beach, FL

The main similarity the above mentioned communities have in common is that they are large, well maintained communities with many units. The more units, the more competition.

Get in touch with us if you want to take a look for yourself.

As many know, condo living can be difficult for pet owners because 95% of the condominiums either don’t allow pets or only small pets. I have been doing research for a customer and have identified multiple buildings that have great views and relaxed pet policies.

The criteria : Amazing Views, Allow 30 lb. dog, Minimum 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, $300,000 range, washer and dryer in the unit.

Here are a few options:

• Bayside Gardens - Clearwater Beach (Sand Key), FL
• Captains Cove - Indian Shores, FL
• Bahia Del Mar - St. Petersburg (Isla Del Sol), FL
• Capri Lagoons Club - Treasure Island, FL

There can be many more options depending on your situation. Send us your criteria and we will see how many properties will work for you.

Reflecting disharmony. Remove or cover large mirrors in the bedroom if you don’t sleep well.

Room with a view. Place your bed to give you the widest view of the room. Your bed shouldn’t be in direct line with the door. Paint the bedroom walls in a color scheme that is both pleasant and inviting.

Calming sounds. Hang wind chimes outside your front door to create a soothing environment for occupants and guests.

Writing on the wall. Try to avoid having completely bare walls. Group together non-personal pictures or hang up interesting art pieces in a diagonal or staggered pattern.

Go with the flow. Place a blue or black doormat at your front door to encourage good things to flow in like water.

The color of love. Include the romance colors–white, pink and red–in your room. But don’t overdose with a red wall because too much red can trigger anger.

Plants for energy. Healthy plants generate positive energy. Avoid dried flowers because they have no energy left.

Look overhead. Move beds, couches and desks from under any overhead beams to keep energy flowing.

Less is more. When arranging furniture,less is better. Too much clutter can restrict the potential of a great room.

Create positive impressions. Keep counters clean, closets organized and clutter concealed in order to project an organized and stress-free environment for you and your guests.

Reprinted with permission from Buffini & Company.