cloning Arteta

Goodnight & Good Luck

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 20:46:00 +0000

After four years in the filthiest business in the world... the end.

143 bets
+115.95pts

Life On Other Planets

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 07:00:00 +0000

FIFA recently shortened the Ballon d'Or shortlist to just three, and the favourite in the betting markets, Wesley Sneijder, isn't on it! The exclusion is a little harsh on the achievements of the Dutchman in leading Inter to the Champions League and Serie A, and helping his country make the World Cup final. But it's no great surprise to see a list comprising 100% Barcelona. If it's a vote on the best players in the world, then Lionel Messi would win it every time, and his teammates would dominate the top five.

The sentimental vote must go to Xavi, now 30 and becoming more susceptible to injuries after several years of so many matches at an astounding level for club and country. In an enlightening interview with Xavi that touches on Argentina's World Cup, Holland-Brazil and Rivaldo's greatness, he explains just how highly he rates Messi:

The only reason the rest of us have any chance of winning this year is because the World Cup didn’t turn out too well for Argentina, because if it had, then it (the FIFA Ballon d’Or) would be no contest. In my view, Leo is now even better than Maradona was.

Cristiano is an incredible player... At the moment he and Messi are on another planet, a notch above everybody else, and Leo’s a step above the Portuguese. Messi is undeniably the best player in the world.

The past is so much more easily romanticised, we have to remind ourselves to appreciate the present. As the writer Paul Gallico observed,

It's one of the tragedies that the golden age we so rarely recognise is the one we're actually living through.

Dismantled Kings are Off the Throne

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 07:00:00 +0000

For so long Spurs have fulfilled the stereotype of the flashy footballing team who flatter to deceive, crumbling when it matters and always second best to the top sides. But finally I am starting to believe in them - if this team wasn't called "Tottenham", with all the associated doubts and baggage, it probably wouldn't have taken me so long. On several occasions this season they've come from behind to win - against Villa, Fulham, Arsenal and most recently Liverpool.

Sunday sees them take on Chelsea, who earlier in the season looked so strong that the title was in danger of becoming a procession. A series of injuries to key players (Lampard, Essien, Terry, Alex) and the loss of form of others (Drogba, Malouda) exposed the lack of depth in their relatively small squad, and they've not been at their best for a good few months.

Early in the season, with Chelsea rampant, one would've expected Chelsea to be strong favourites to win, even away from home. But on current form I would have Spurs as small favourites. Considering the continued absence of arguably their best player in van der Vaart, and the return of Terry and Essien for Chelsea, I could envisage around 13/8 (38% win chance) about both teams, but the 9/4 (32%) that is available on Spurs very much underestimates them.

Their last four meetings at White Hart Lane:

Feb 2008 Spurs 2-1 Chelsea (Carling Cup)

March 2008 4-4

March 2009 1-0

April 2010 2-1

2pts Spurs to win at 3.25 exchanges or 3.2 Bet365

3pts Spurs draw no bet at 2.31, Betdaq (6/5 widely available)

The Golden Bench

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 18:22:00 +0000

Under Massimo Allegri Cagliari finished a creditable 9th in Serie A in 2008/09 and were placed 12th when Allegri's tenure ended following a fallout with Cagliari President Cellino. Allegri is clearly a good coach - witness what he is achieving at AC Milan at present - and was twice awarded manager of the year (the Albo Panchina d'Oro or Golden Bench) for his achievements at Cagliari. But if this period represented overachievement for Cagliari, it is still possible that since then they have underachieved and are now being underrated as a result. Firstly the doubts surrounding the coach's future destabilised the club and saw the team finish the season with an incredible run of 14 matches without a win, partly under a caretaker coach. New appointment and fan favourite Bisoli changed to a more defensive system and was dismissed after winning only 11 points from 12 matches. Roberto Donadoni may have a mixed record as a coach - leading Italy in Euro 2008 and Napoli with no great distinction - but the boost his arrival creates may be enough to turn results around, certainly in the short term. He kicked off with a win at Brescia last weekend and, after a cup date with struggling Bologna tonight, Cagliari host Lecce this Sunday. Lecce own the worst away record in Serie A (0-1-6), and have been on the wrong end of 4-0 scorelines against Juve, Milan and Udinese. This looks a great opportunity for Cagliari, historically strong at home, to dish out more punishment to a team heading fast towards the trapdoor of relegation:

3 pts buy supremacy Cagliari over Lecce at 1.0, Extrabet

Lecce have some stiff competition for the title of worst team in the league from both Bari and Cesena, who meet this weekend. Bari performed well last season but lost their best defenders - Ranocchia and Bonucci, both capped by Italy - and are overly reliant on Barreto, currently injured for a month, in attack. Minnows Cesena were always likely to struggle in Serie A but are capable of troubling injury-ravaged Bari:

3pts lay Bari to win at 2.02, Betfair

Over in France another promoted team up against it is Caen. But rather than slide to their doom trading in gloomy 1-0 defeats they have maintained an attacking style in the top flight, losing their last four league matches by scores of 3-2, 3-2, 5-2 and 2-1, so it's not hard to recommend a back of over 2.5 goals at odds against. James Eastham concurs on the Betfair blog.

3pts over 2.5 goals in Caen-Sochaux at 2.21, 188Bet

Ballon d'Or 2010

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 22:15:00 +0000

The FIFA World Player of the Year, voted for by coaches of national teams, has been merged with what was the European version - the Ballon d'Or, awarded by France Football. Since 2004 the FIFA award had been voted for from a shortlist - which avoided the embarrassment of various out of touch coaches voting for long since retired players or obscure Bundesliga midfielders - whereas France Football polled journalists. Now it seems we have a mishmash of the two, with captains, coaches and journalists all getting in on the act.

Two separate awards had become rather unnecessary when the last four winners have been identical, especially given the propensity for the world's top players to gravitate towards European clubs and thereby ensure eligibility for either award. But maybe recent consensus just reflects the clear dominance of certain individuals - Messi and Ronaldo have both appeared in the top three in each of the last three years.

Of more significance is that in the previous three World Cup years the awards both went to the same World Cup winning player:

1998 Zidane

2002 Ronaldo

2006 Cannavaro

(In 1994 Romario won World Player but as a non-European was at that point ineligible for the European award.)

The betting markets have Sneijder as clear favourite - instrumental in Inter's Champions League win as well as Holland's run to the World Cup final, it's not unreasonable - but I'd prefer to pick a World Cup winner at a big price. Xavi is predictably short at 7/2 but David Villa, probably Spain's most eye-catching performer at the World Cup, can be backed at what looks a generous 20/1.

1 pt Villa to win FIFA Ballon d'Or at 20/1, Victor Chandler or Bet365

Schadenfreude

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Thu, 21 Oct 2010 05:00:00 +0000

Liverpool AND Manchester United both in civil war - it's almost too good to be true, isn't it? Fans vent their spleens at debt-ridden owners, hounded managers and underperforming stars as the rest of us stand by, and - let's be honest - enjoy every minute of it. This might just be the wake up call for said fans that footballing hierarchies are transitory, dynasties come and go and there is no intrinsic reason why these particular clubs should remain indefinitely at the top.

Liverpool's slide to the depths of 7th place was greeted with dismay, yet former manager Rafa Benitez's achievements look better with every passing week as poor Roy Hodgson stumbles towards the foot of the table. You begin to see recent years at Liverpool less as just falling short of seemingly inevitable glory, and more as short-term overachievement due to an excellent coach and several world-class players, set against a backdrop of long-term decline. Whilst over at United it's all a bit Anfield circa 1990, as the appearances of van der Sar (39), Ferdinand (31), Scholes (35) and Giggs (36) are ever decreasing, and teammates fail to convince in their absence. Kuszczak-Evans-Anderson-Macheda? Good luck with that.

Ferguson played a canny media game in his interviews the other day, pulling out all the stops to "open up" and perhaps even do "heartfelt" and dare-I-say-it "vulnerable" (we are talking about Sir Alex Ferguson, here, right?) as he explained how he was powerless to prevent green-eyed Wayne flying the happy Old Trafford nest. But do me a favour and save the bleating about how United made him the player he was, and bemoaning the lack of loyalty in the modern game. Players like Rooney, like Gascoigne, are not *made* by anyone. And it's funny, but I don't recall these protestations being made by national media outlets when United secured Rooney's signature from Everton.

Well now the boot is on the other foot. Once again Agent Stretford has worked his black magic and debt-laden United are powerless as richer clubs who enjoy better chances of silverware line up to relieve them of their one remaining great player. It's all so very 2004. See you in another six years, United - in mid-table obscurity.

Merseyside Misery

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 17:11:00 +0000

This Sunday afternoon it's the first Mersey derby of the season. Incredibly Everton and Liverpool meet after seven league matches with less points (six each) than games played, and with both clubs having exited the league cup to lower league opposition. But whereas Everton's meagre tally has arguably done some of their performances a disservice (notably the 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa) Roy Hodgson himself said that it is precisely his team's performances that have concerned him. With Torres a shadow of the player he can be, Liverpool look simultaneously weak in attack and vulnerable defensively, conceding two goals each to Blackpool and Sunderland in their last two league games. And let's not pretend the story at Everton is so different - minus Louis Saha and with Yakubu yet to find his form they've lacked any sort of cutting edge. Meantime Moyes doesn't seem to know his best central defensive partnership, with Heitinga recently employed to little effect in defensive midfield.

Whilst both teams have been performing well below par, I would have them as roughly evenly matched at present at a neutral venue. Now with Everton enjoying home advantage I'd be thinking about 43% Everton - 27% Liverpool - 30% draw, so it was surprising to see the early market split the teams 38%-32%. Everton have been shortening all week but you can still get a couple of standout prices if you're quick:

2pts Everton to win at 6/4, Totesport

3pts Everton draw no bet at 4/5, Coral

Mourinho's Madrid

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 11:19:00 +0000

Under Jose Mourinho Real Madrid have only conceded one goal in seven matches in La Liga and Champions League. They have thus far failed to sparkle but have looked very solid, i.e. already they have the Mourinho stamp on them defensively, albeit we can expect them to improve as the team gels during the season. All three of their home games have been won to nil.

Today's opponents Deportivo are a weak side who really struggle to score goals. Despite finishing a respectable tenth last season they registered just 35 goals in 38 matches (the second lowest in the division). Their 2010/11 campaign began in similar fashion, with two nil-nil draws, and they've only scored in one of their five matches to date (two goals versus Getafe, both penalties).

Mourinho has already named his team and Real are essentially full strength. Seems like an absolute no-brainer:

6 pts Real Madrid win to nil at 5/6, Ladbrokes.

Alternatively you could back a variety of correct scores i.e. 1-0, 2-0 etc at best price to create a similar position (1-0 through to 4-0 works out at evens) in favour of home win to nil.

Hold the Respect

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 22:30:00 +0000

Gerrard Houllier's return to the Premier League was greeted with something less than enthusiasm by Villa supporters, and this muted reaction has seen his fans defend his record. Phil McNulty of the BBC believes he deserves our respect both as a person and as a football man.

Well firstly as the man who chose to sign El Hadj Diouf over Nicholas Anelka in 2002 we should arguably be questioning not so much his footballing judgement as his sanity of mind. But Mr Houllier's somewhat mixed record in football - even Paul Le Guen won a title at Lyon - is fairly well documented (see Paul Tomkins' comprehensive piece).

It's more the idea that this man is so classy that rankles. Here's a guy who who lied to his employers that he had found Steven Gerrard rotting in obscurity in an attempt to undermine academy director Steve Heighway; who claimed 'no one else had heard of' [then African Footballer of the Year] Diouf when he snapped him up for £10m (oops); who fed his favoured Echo journalist anti-Fowler stories to turn fans against him; and who never missed a chance to spout self-aggrandising nonsense ('vision', 'philosophy' and 'culture' are already featuring in Villa press conferences) or invoke the ghost of Shankly at any opportunity.

Of course Houllier is not alone in so many of his utterances being full of rather ugly, self-promoting tosh - but at least some others in that position do have the saving grace of being any good. Funny how the Community Shield crops up so often in stories of his success; nine of them are rarely evidenced as proof of Alex Ferguson's greatness.

So welcome back, Ged. Welcome back endless excuses, lies and stale, one-dimensional football.
How long til Villa 'turn the corner'?

Champions League 2011

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Tue, 24 Aug 2010 07:00:00 +0000

The three clubs most likely to win the Champions League in 2011 are Barcelona, Real Madrid and Chelsea, in that order. I doubt many people (deluded United fans excepted) would challenge that.

Current Betfair prices to back:

Barcelona 3.95 (25%)

Real Madrid 5.9 (17%)

Chelsea 7.4 (13.5%)

Barca are of course the best team. The best now and one of the best ever etc etc (you've heard it all before). And they've added David Villa to create some sort of dream front line. Adriano is a good signing from Sevilla too. But the squad isn't massive and cracks were appearing towards the end of last season as Guardiola tinkered unconvincingly with the formation. I question whether they should be so short, especially relative to Real and Chelsea.

Amid all the hyperbole surrounding Barca, it's easy to forget just how close Real ran them for the title last season - there were only 3 points in it, with Real outscoring Barcelona. Now they have Mourinho at the helm - twice a Champions League winner and the architect of Barca's demise this year. Mourinho and Florentino Perez seem strange bed fellows indeed, but this summer's decidedly non-galactico signings (e.g. Pedro Leon, Sami Khedira) suggest it's Mourinho who is calling the shots. Strangely it's Guardiola who looks less content with his employers, as Tim Stannard writes here.

And then there's Chelsea. They haven't won a European Cup in recent years or, er, any year come to that. But look back over their recent exits:

2009-10 lost to Inter in the round of 16

2008-09 lost to Barca on away goals (Iniesta's late winner)

2007-08 lost to Man Utd on penalties in the final

Inter, Barca, Man U... they've lost to the eventual champions in each of the last three seasons. They've started the season where they left off - steamrollering mediocre Prem opposition - and as for Champions League pedigree, it doesn't get much better than Ancelotti.

What of the rest of the field? Inter (14/1) will be formidable again, of course, having essentially kept the squad intact, and in Benitez have recruited another manager not afraid of the sort of tactical warfare they may need to prevail. Of the outsiders, neighbours Milan I would suggest steering well clear of, even at 40/1, whilst the same goes for Benfica (85) and Valencia (95), who have both lost star performers over the summer. Meanwhile Spurs are as short as 48 to win the Champions League (an outrageous 25s with William Hill). Now that is the funniest thing I've heard since Yaya Toure's weekly wage at Man City.

If anything the market underrates the gulf in class between the top three and the rest, but if you like an (over)ambitious long shot as much as Cristiano Ronaldo with a deadball, then back Lyon at close to 100/1 on the exchanges. They've just agreed to sign Gourcuff from Bordeaux for a whole heap of cash (22m euros), giving them a front four of Briand-Gourcuff-Bastos behind Lisandro Lopez, which sounds half decent.

3 pts back Real Madrid at 5/1, PaddyPower.
2 pts back Chelsea at 13/2, widely available.

Optimism Primed: Prem Points 2010/11

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 22:30:00 +0000

If I told you about a team who had Premier league form in 2010 that was behind only Man Utd and Chelsea (W11, D6, L2) and among those 11 wins were victories over both of the top two, would you be interested in buying their season points below, say, 70? They've essentially kept their squad intact over the summer, have seen key players sign up to long-term deals and head into the season with no serious injury concerns whatsoever. They aren't even in any European competition that might drain their energy either. They are, of course, Everton.

In the last three years Everton have finished with 65 (Moyes' best haul, in 2008), 63 and 61 points, to finish 5th, 5th and finally 8th. Each of the last two seasons have involved poor, injury-hit starts that have seen the subs bench full of relatively unknown teenage reserves. Such a fiasco looks like being averted this time around. The feeling is that this is the best chance this settled group of players will have to make a mark before age, injuries and departures weaken them. Rodwell a year older, Bilyaletdinov a year more adapted, but Cahill, Arteta and Pienaar still close to their peak - we can expect them to beat a quote of 62.

4 pts buy Everton points at 62, Sporting Index

Another fairly unfashionable - and often downright ugly - Premier league team is Stoke City. But last season they proved that their first foray into the Prem was no honeymoon, improving to 47 points after 45 in 2008/09. They also improved their away record, after being incredibly reliant on home form in their first season in the top flight. Their accurate aerial bombardment made many teams (Everton among them) look like a bunch of jittery pub players, but alongside the organisation and work ethic are a few players of quality such as Shawcross, Etherington and Fuller. Stoke are no poor relation - always with money to spend, demonstrated by the recent signing of Kenwyn Jones. He looks ideal for their style of play, and shifts the goal burden from Fuller, Sidibe and Tuncay. And if Jones' arrival heralds the departure of out of favour James Beattie, so much the better. The league may have got slightly harder with City's continued strengthening, but there is no reason why Stoke cannot repeat a mid-40s points haul of the previous two years.

3 pts buy Stoke points at 42, SportsSpread

Pre-season Punt

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 07:08:00 +0000

A few suggestions to consider for anyone looking for a pre-season accumulator before tonight's kick off:

Chelsea or Man U to win the Prem (best prices of 17/10 and 11/4 respectively) - painfully obvious but decent prices given their recent superiority over the rest.
Wigan to be relegated (9/4) - likeable footballing team looking increasingly vulnerable.
Reading to be promoted from the Championship (4/1) - fine form in 2010, largely kept team intact.
Morecambe to be promoted from League Two (4/1) - solid, no frills outfit to go one better than last year's 4th?
Luton to win the Conference (2/1) - met one too good last season, strengthened in summer.
Lille to win Ligue 1 (12/1) - young, exciting team, kept all their stars from last season's top-scoring 4th place finish (more here).
Inter to win Serie A (11/10) - best squad by a country mile. Benitez can't mess this up, can he??
Real Madrid (5/1) or Chelsea (13/2) to win Champions League - two teams closer to Barca than odds suggest. Mourinho & Ancelotti aren't bad either.

For example: Man U, Reading, Luton, Lille & Chelsea is available at around 4250/1 with VC or 4225/1 with Betfred. And it's more fun than premium bonds.

Prem Top Scorer 2010/11

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 08:00:00 +0000

The Premier League went goal crazy last season, with 1,053 goals scored at an average of 2.77 per game - compare that to the previous four: 942 (2.47), 1,002 (2.63), 931 (2.45), 944 (2.48). Hence whereas 20 goals is often enough to top the scoring charts, and high teens will guarantee a top five place, during 2009/10 five players scored over 20 Premier league goals:

Drogba 29

Rooney 26

Bent 24

Tevez 23

Lampard 22

leaving Torres and Defoe in sixth place with 18 each.

Those usual suspects, plus Robin van Persie, head the market for the new season. Whilst these big names of course merit favouritism, here are reasons why you might oppose some of them:

Chelsea had an exceptional season, scoring an incredible 103 goals. They cannot be expected to repeat that feat. Drogba himself had an exceptional year - in six seasons at Chelsea that is only the second time he's exceeded 12 league goals, generally due to injury restricting his playing time. Aged 32 the chances of missing out through injury increase.
Lampard tends to get 8-12 goals from open play plus several penalties. Last year he got those 12 plus an unusually high 10 penalties to total 22 goals. A consistent performer with a history of remaining injury-free (albeit he's also 32 now) you could do worse than the 33/1 each-way, but I think there's better available.
Wayne Rooney finally delivered the glut of goals we've always known he was capable of. The departure of Ronaldo freed him from occasional left-wing duties and he became the focal point of their 451. However, the arrival of Javier Hernandez this summer indicates Rooney will at times play more of a no.10 role this term.
Likewise Tevez enjoyed the most prolific season of his career, but he also filled his boots most notably in the absence of striker partner Adebayor. With no African Nations Cup this season we can expect City's goals to be shared around more.
Torres and van Persie are both too injury-prone to be trusted at short prices. Torres' goals:games ratio in the Prem is phenomenal (56 in 69 starts and 10 subs appearances) and the lack of Champions League for Liverpool is a positive, but in each of the last two seasons he's only managed 20 league starts. His World Cup traumas and subsequent injury do little to raise hopes. Meanwhile Van Persie has struggled even more: just once in six seasons has he started more than 50% of Arsenal's league programme.
The negative on Defoe is that he could be hampered by Spurs competing in the Champions League, providing they qualify. If they do, the squad is bound to be rotated, with Robbie Keane taking more of his league playing time than before.

At the current prices my preference is again for Darren Bent each-way at 20/1, after he was flagged here on that basis last year at a juicy 50/1. At Sunderland he doesn't suffer from any serious competition for his place or threat of rotation, and tends to play a full 90 minutes most weeks unlike, say, Defoe. Sunderland are also a team who are open to improvement on last season in a way that the likes of Man U and Chelsea are not. Much like the player himself, it's not the most exciting or flashy proposition, but it is solid.

Further down the list perhaps a case could be made for Adebayor (33s), from whom we expect improvement on last season, and Saha (50s), who scored 10 league goals by the end of 2009 but then dried up, as possible each-way shots. My eye is caught, however, by Coral's 200/1 offered on Stoke's Ricardo Fuller. Alright so he did only net 3 times in the league last season. But that is a little misleading given he registered 5 goals in cup competitions. And the year before scored 11 in 25 starts (+9 sub) in the Prem. It's a generous each-way price, now we just need Wigan to stop conceding bucketloads to Defoe, Drogba and co. Good luck with that.

World Cup 2010 Review

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 20:00:00 +0000

Reactions to the World Cup Final strike me as somewhat extreme in their negativity and harsh on the Dutch, painted as they are as the villains of the piece and derided for their brutality, whilst Spain are lauded as the all round good guys and conquering heroes. Every opponent throughout the tournament set out to defend and stop Spain playing; barring Bielsa's Chile, of course, who attacked as ever, but they too ran into disciplinary problems when pressing Spain. What did people expect from Holland, a display of open, attacking football for the good of the game which would allow Spain to win by four or five goals?

Accusations of 'anti-football' from Cruyff seem a little far-fetched. Holland threatened a lot through Robben, and whilst it would've been great to see more from their other attacking talent, Sneijder was closely looked after by Busquets - just as he had shackled Oezil in the semi-final. There were a couple of particularly agricultural challenges - not such a surprise from the team with the most yellow cards in the tournament, even before the final - but there was also a lot of the usual faking, diving and rolling around antics that blights the Spanish game.

And is it not harsh to demand more excitement from Spain? As the dominant force in world football for about three years Spain, like Barcelona, are victims of their own success. Opponents primary concern is inevitably how to stifle them, rather than play themselves. And during the tournament they proved pretty effective at this, with the Swiss grabbing a 1-0 win and others limiting Spain to victories by the same narrow margin. Spain perhaps suffered from being shot-shy in the final especially, but 'boring' criticisms are misguided.

Sid Lowe points out that we perhaps expect too much from a team like Spain, underestimating just how difficult it is to break down any organised team set out to defend and negate. So many times when Xavi or Iniesta received the ball during the tournament they were immediately engulfed by two or three harrying opponents - testament to their skill that they were still usually able to retain possession. Xavi is quoted in the article:

What did people think? That we were going to win every game 3-0? I can't believe what I am hearing sometimes. Do you not realize how hard it is? Teams aren't stupid; we're European champions. They all pressure us like wolves.

It's hard to criticise Del Bosque now that he's won the World Cup, but at times I felt Spain were victorious despite his tactics rather than because of them. They lacked width in many games, especially the defeat to Switzerland, and his reluctance to drop a clearly unfit and out of sorts Torres was baffling. He finally replaced him with Pedro for the semi-final and Spain looked a better side. Playing Busquets and Alonso against the likes of Switzerland, Honduras and Paraguay seemed strange, a largely unnecessary extra central midfielder serving to clog up the areas that Xavi wanted to operate in. But of course this line up was precisely what was required against better sides with a good no. 10 - and here the selection of the hitherto much-maligned Sergio Busquets appeared a masterstroke. To Del Bosque's further credit, his use of Villa in an unfamiliar left-wing role proved similarly inspired - perhaps partly explaining the persistence with Torres - and his introduction of Navas against van Bronkhorst helped turn the final the way of Spain.

Unusually Germany became everyone's favourite underdog, with a string of outstanding performances that exceeded expectations. Whilst it is harsh to take away from their achievements - most of all the way they defended so successfully against Argentina's potent attack - one cannot help but feel both England and Argentina played into their hands. Maradona's decision to omit Veron and play Di Maria and Maxi in a central midfield three was disastrous, as they were overrun by their German counterparts, and Di Maria's lack of defensive instincts contributed directly to at least one of the goals. El Diego's string of dice-roll substitutions left Mascherano as the lone fire fighter and the team in danger of an even bigger humiliation than they received.

From an England point of view, it was disappointing that Capello seemed not to have made a plan to combat the obvious 3 on 2 in central midfield that was always going to occur. Repeatedly Schweinsteiger was given time and space in front of his defence as Barry marked Oezil and Lampard presumably picked up Khedira. The less said about the utter shambles of England's defending the better, but it's worth saying that it isn't just the defence that is responsible for defending: the lack of backtracking from the likes of Milner (was he even fit?) was noticeable.

What of our bets? France and Italy were even worse than predicted, selling France goals at 6.4 proving particularly profitable as they managed just one; Malouda's universally unpopular effort against the hosts in their final group game, as a squad apparently shorn of quarrelsome individuals imploded in front of the world. Argentina scored a bundle of goals (ten in all, after we'd sold at 8.7) as Maradona's switch to a 4-3-3 yielded positive results, but were predictably exposed as soon as they met decent opposition. Altogether an 18.55 pt profit on the six tournament bets (after commission) - a healthy return on the World Cup, if not one to rival FIFA.

World Cup 2010 Team Guide continued

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 16:30:00 +0000

ITALY

It's all about: stubbornly keeping faith with the 2006 World Cup winners, despite some looking distinctly long in the tooth.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Vincenzo Iaquinta - doesn't appear to do a great deal for club or country, but Lippi loves him.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Lippi isn't interested in wildcards or Walcotts, he wants a squad of sound guys that he trusts.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Italians like Italy - all 23 are domestically based and most always have been.

The discarded star: 'FanAntonio' Cassano - Donadoni gave the maverick a go at Euro 2008, but he is not a Lippi player.

Bet on: them not winning the World Cup - lucked out with an easy group but overrated on past performance and being called 'Italy'.

IVORY COAST

It's all about: Didier Drogba. (And he knows it.)

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: with an attacking trio of Kalou-Drogba-Gervinho, even Sven can't find room for a Heskey, can he?

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Seydou Doumbia.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Guy Demel - long-forgotten Arsenal reject - and Emmanuel Eboue - unforgettable Arsenal joker.

The discarded star: Bakari Kone.

Bet on: their early demise if Drogba's arm injury keeps him out.

PARAGUAY

It's all about: doing it for Salvador Cabanas, star striker recovering from recent shooting.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Jonathan Santana, midfield mediocrity.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Rodolfo Gamarra.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Defender Antolin Alcaraz has escaped Brugge for Wigan recently - they must have mistaken him for a Honduran.

The discarded star: Cabanas - not enough time to recover from a bullet to the head. (Award for least prosaic injury is already bagged).

Bet on: Enrique Vera getting booked. It's what he does.

SERBIA

It's all about: succeeded Czech Rep as Official Dark Horses. With defensive solidity, attacking flair and an experienced coach, what can go wrong?

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Dragan Mrdja - an absolute goal machine in, er, Serbia.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Radosav Petrovic.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Nenad Milijas - struggles to get in the Wolves team.

The discarded star: Miralem Sulejmani - who cost Ajax £12.9 million in 2008 but at 21 just isn't that good yet.

Bet on: Serbia winning their Group at 7/2, Zigic each-way for the golden boot at 150/1 (Eurosportbet). Unless Pele tips them, then steer well clear.

World Cup 2010 Team Guide continued

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Mon, 31 May 2010 22:30:00 +0000

AUSTRALIA

It's all about: Tim Cahill. And being hard to beat.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Josh Kennedy - not really good enough, but the best they've got in the absence of Viduka.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Nikita Rukavytsya.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Harry Kewell - last seen limping around Anfield, has rejuvenated his career in Turkey. If only he hadn't been out injured since January...

The discarded star: Scott McDonald, surprisingly cut given lack of striking options. But then, when you play 4-5-1 or 4-6-0, who needs strikers?

Bet on: Australia +1 on the handicap versus Germany at 960/1000 (Ladbrokes).

NETHERLANDS

It's all about: the fluidity of the famous 4 of van Persie, Robben, Sneijder & van der Vaart.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Dirk Kuyt - the ever-willing workhorse surrounded by the big shots of European footballs, and their egos.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Eljero Elia.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Khalid Boulahrouz.

The discarded star: Ruud van Nistelrooy - good decision, he's past it.

Bet on: winning Group E at 8/13 and Marc van Bommel getting booked - probably before he's made it off the team bus.

MEXICO

It's all about: Rafa Marquez - bringing his rock star swagger to the international stage for the last time.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Franco - a very ordinary centre-forward.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Jonathan dos Santos - he's played for Barca, so he must be good, right?

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Gio dos Santos and Carlos Vela.

The discarded star: Nery Castillo - bit of a wrong 'un.

Bet on: if they qualify impressively and cruise past an honest trier from Group B, look to oppose any overreaction in the quarters. A nice team, but can't cut it against the best.

CHILE

It's all about: relentless attacking football.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Chile don't do Heskeys.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Mauricio Isla.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Mark Gonzalez - highly-rated as a young player but had a forgettable time at Liverpool.

The discarded star: Claudio Maldonado, only just recovered from injury.

Bet on: Goals. These guys will create plenty but also leave holes at the back.

World Cup 2010 Team Guide continued

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Thu, 27 May 2010 09:00:00 +0000

ARGENTINA

It's all about: Messi.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Martin Palermo - good at heading and scoring crucial late winners from offside positions.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Javier Pastore - wonderkid who could be the missing link between midfield and attack.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Maxi Rodriguez. Poor form this season, though he did just net twice against, er, Canada.

The discarded star: Riquelme, Cambiasso, Zanetti, G Milito, ...how long have you got?

Bet on: a disastrous 1st round exit at 7/1 (PaddyPower).

GERMANY

It's all about: in the absence of Ballack, 'Yogi' Low is looking to the likes of Mertesacker, Lahm and Schweinsteiger to step up.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Arne Friedrich.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Toni Kroos.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Ballack - decent for Chelsea, imperious for Germany. Shame he can't be there.

The discarded star: veteran midfielder Torsten Frings is less than happy at finding himself on the international scrapheap.

Bet on: Serbia winning their group at 7/2

ENGLAND

It's all about: Plan A is Wayne Rooney. Plan B is a rapper and singer who had a no. 1 album in April 2010.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Emile Heskey.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Theo Walcott.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Emile Heskey. And Theo Walcott.

The discarded star: may well be Joe Cole. Gary Neville probably thinks it's Gary Neville.

Bet on: them winning Group C at 4/11 (Skybet)

PORTUGAL

It's all about: Ronaldo.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Hugo Almeida - so bad they had to make Liedson Portuguese. And he's no Eusebio either.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Fabio Coentrao, the baby of the squad at 22.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Tiago.

The discarded star: Ricardo Quaresma. Two years of bench-warming at Inter haven't done wonders for his international career.

Bet on: Ronaldo - he hasn't scored from open play for Portugal since Euro 2008. Must be due one, right?

World Cup 2010 Team Guide

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Wed, 26 May 2010 08:30:00 +0000

SPAIN

It's all about: Xavi.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Sergio Busquets. The underage kid who's crashed the party, perhaps due to nepotism (but then we all said that about Frank Lampard).

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Pedro. Not really a wildcard (and definitely not a Walcott) but an uncapped player that could make a big impact. Or not play at all.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Gerard Pique. A mere dozen appearances for United, since when 'Piquenbauer' has become rated as one of the world's best.

The discarded star: Marcos Senna. Holding midfielder was a key man in the 2008 triumph, left out after injury-hit season.

Bet on: them winning the World Cup at 4/1 - yes they are favourites, yes it's a short price, but have you seen these guys play??

FRANCE

It's all about: Franck Ribery.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Sidney Govou.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Mathieu Valbuena.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Jean-Alain Boumsong.

The discarded star: Nasri & Benzema may regret taking Gallas' seat on the team bus that time. Louis Saha may regret Domenech being coach.

Bet on: the world's most unpopular coach mixing some top quality ingredients to create a tasteless mess.

DENMARK

It's all about: the solid spine of Agger, Kjaer, Poulsen & Bendtner. Shame about the rest...

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Rommedahl - 93 caps and still garbage.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Christian Eriksen, 'the heir to Michael Laudrup'. No pressure then.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Jon Dahl Tomasson - class player who looked rubbish at Newcastle.

The discarded star: Peter Lovenkrands - rubbish player who looked class at Newcastle.

Bet on: to qualify from Group E at 11/10 (Betfred)

BRAZIL

It's all about: winning, even if it's done in a more pragmatic, European style than some at home would like.

Emile 'what's he doing there' Heskey: Gilberto Silva - symbol of the Dunga reign, he's still a guaranteed starter at 33.

Inspired wildcard or pointless Walcott: Dunga doesn't do wildcards.

Wasn't he a bit rubbish in the Prem: Julio 'The Beast' Baptista, the understudy to Kaka. Now try repeating that without laughing.

The discarded star: Ronaldinho

Bet on: them winning the World Cup at 5/1 if you must. Then pray they don't slip up and meet Spain in the second round.

Golden Ball

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Mon, 24 May 2010 14:45:00 +0000

The Golden Ball is the award given to the best player at the World Cup, voted for by media types from a shortlist drawn up by the FIFA Technical Committee (it's the the one they'd already voted Zidane the winner of before the 2006 final and that headbutt).

Looking back over the past winners of this award, it's predictably tended to be won by strikers. Rossi and Schillaci won the golden boot in 1982 and 1990, whilst each of Maradona, Romario and Ronaldo scored 4 or 5 goals in the year they won the Golden Ball. However, German keeper Oliver Kahn triumphed in 2002, and most recently the top three in 2006 - Zidane, Cannavaro, Pirlo - featured no strikers at all. The other obvious trend is that you can't win the award without your team going to at least the semi-final - six of the last seven winners had reached the final, the exception being Toto Schillaci who top scored as hosts Italy finished third.

Some possible bets at available prices:
Fabiano 40/1 - Brazil's main goalscorer.
Robinho 50/1 - flamboyant, scores goals, tends to reserve his best for Brazil.
Pique 125/1 - reputation sky-rocketed in the last year, profile helped further by recent goal against Inter Milan.
Maicon 150/1 - Brazil's attacking right-back, widely regarded as the world's best full back.

1 pt Fabiano at 40/1, Bwin (or 33/1 elsewhere)

1 pt Robinho at 50/1, VC.

World Cup Squads: Enter Shaqiri

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Wed, 12 May 2010 23:30:00 +0000

It really shouldn't come as a surprise, we've had plenty of warning, but still it's hard to rein in the consternation as Diego Maradona names his Argentina squad. Top of the headline exclusions are Inter Milan's Cambiasso and Zanetti, made all the more obvious by their club's run to the Champions League final and potential treble win. Meanwhile teammate Diego Milito has made the 30-man list but is expected to be cut in favour of 36-year old veteran, Martin Palermo.

You would think your first (only?) job as Argentina manager would be to get the best out of Messi. You've got the best player in the world, so do whatever it takes to get the best out of him. Presumably emulating Barca would be an idea, by perhaps playing a front three, a decent right-back who can get forward and a passing playmaker in midfield for him to link up with. Something like this maybe:

Zanetti-Burdisso-Samuel-Heinze
Mascherano-Riquelme-Cambiasso
Messi-Higuain-Aguero
subs: Tevez, D Milito, Banega, Perotti, G Milito,...

Instead we're set to witness four centre-backs strung across the backline of a 442, with the 35-year old Veron in the middle and only Mascherano alongside him. It's not too hard to see why Messi has hitherto been unable to replicate his club form at international level. Gutierrez and Otamendi are not Iniesta and Alves.

Over in France Raymond Domenech was rivalling Maradona for most bizarre selection. Karim Benzema has flopped in Madrid after his big-money move and become increasingly marginalised towards the end of the season, now lacking sharpness and playing time. But he is a class act who on playing merit would walk into the French squad. Instead Domenech has gone for a combination of the honest trier - Andre-Pierre Gignac, still living off his 08-09 season - the unproven in Rennes' Jimmy Briand and the proven and found wanting - the inept Djbril Cisse who's been making hay in Turkey. Louis Saha? He wasn't good enough, not even for the provisional 30-man squad.

Perhaps the harshest omission was Sami Nasri, a first team regular in midfield for Arsenal. Admittedly, France do boast Ribery and Henry in his likely position on the left, but Nasri has showed an ability to play down the middle in the absence of Fabregas, and Domenech has found room for Ben Arfa, a player barely as important to Marseille as Nasri is to Arsenal. Naturally there are several uncapped wildcards, including 19-year old midfielder Yann M'Vila, who's played one full season for Rennes.

Domenech is notorious for letting non-playing factors influence his selections - most famously, the star signs of his centre-back pairing - but the answer to the omission of Nasri and Benzema, may lie in a rift that apparently developed between the old and new generations during Euro 2008. I always thought the skill of management was to foster an environment in which disparate personalities could pull together, but Lippi follows a similar philosophy for Italy: keep your friends close, and leave your enemies out altogether. No Cassano, no Miccoli, just another bunch of decent club forwards and undeserving old favourites like Gattuso, Grosso and Zambrotta.

Argentina could still perform to the best of their not inconsiderable abilities. But neither them nor France have shown much form under their current managers, both are hampered by obtuse selections and have some serious weaknesses in their first eleven. France and Italy should at least be fairly solid if uninspiring. Argentina could be spectacular, but look anything but solid.

To win World Cup:
2pts lay Argentina at 9.0, 1pt lay Italy at 16.0, exchanges.

Team tournament goals:
3pts sell Argentina goals at 8.7, 4pts sell France goals at 6.4, Sporting Index

The First Big Weekend

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 06:00:00 +0000

An incredible weekend of sport lies ahead what with the Grand National at Aintree, La Liga's top two meet in El Gran Clasico, and the culmination of the US Masters.

If you're after some bets on these events my advice would be: don't be put off by the obvious. I've already advised backing a certain Mr T. Woods, and this can be topped up at an even better 6/1 as Ladbrokes have gone standout best price, presumably as part of some sort of marketing effort. I also wouldn't be put off by an each-way bet on second favourite Phil Mickelson, given his impeccable record at Augusta: 7 of the last 9 years finishing in the top five, winning in 2004 and 2006. Finally Retief Goosen is another with a very good course record, making the top five in four of his last eight Masters, and can be backed with Victor Chandler at best price of 25/1. VC are offering to refund as a free bet any losses if your outright pick finishes ahead of Woods.

Meanwhile some view the National as a lucky dip of a race, a minefield for punters who might as well resort to blindfold pin-sticking. In reality it really isn't so hard to come up with some decent contenders: horses that jump, stay, and have some form at Aintree is a start. Chuck in a few long-term trends such as not carrying too much weight (a trend arguably weakening as the handicapper compresses the weights more and more) and the right age (ideally 9 or 10, certainly 8-12). Snowy Morning, 3rd in 2008 and 9th last year, seems to fit these trends the best. Others for the shortlist are Black Apalachi, last year's fourth State of Play, or riskier shots at fancy prices Dream Alliance (40s) or Mr Pointment (100/1).

Whilst all the pundits hurl superlatives at Barcelona after their demolition of Arsenal (themselves essentially a poor man's Barcelona) it's worth remembering what the league table looks like:

Barcelona 30 Games, 77 Points, +56 GD
Real Madrid 30 Games, 77 Points, +57 GD

The big two meet at the Bernabeu where Real have played 15, won 15 in the league this season. It's worth remembering, however, that they did lose to AC Milan there in the Champions League and later draw with Lyon to send them out. Also, having developed a mean streak earlier this season, Real had gone 9 matches without a clean sheet before last weekend; Ronaldo and Higuain have continued to hammer goals in for fun, but defensively things have gone awry. Barca too have arguably not been at their fluent best, but the outrageous form of Leo Messi has covered up for it. They may be playing away from home, having played Arsenal on Tuesday night, but rated as small underdogs in the markets I'll take Barca to win.

1pt Woods to win at 6/1, Ladbrokes
1pt each-way Mickelson at 14/1, Ladbrokes, William Hill
1pt Goosen to win at 25/1, Victor Chandler (refund if ahead of Woods)
1pt each-way Snowy Morning at 16/1, widely available
0.25pt each-way double Mickelson and Snowy Morning at 254/1
4 pts Barcelona to beat Real Madrid at 19/10, Stan James

The Return of the King

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Mon, 05 Apr 2010 06:00:00 +0000

After the stream of tabloid revelations and the televised public apology, this week sees the return to competitive action of the world's finest golfer, Tiger Woods. How much does this hiatus affect his chances of winning the Masters? I can't see the mental side of it being a problem, not for someone as focused and driven as Woods. Returning at this point was his choice, so he should be ready psychologically. Plus Augusta is the best venue for him to remain relatively isolated from the media merry-go-round. But the concern is his lack of competitive action for five months. He has returned to victorious ways quickly after long lay-offs before, but it's taken two or three tournaments. Even so the 5/1 on the exchanges (and now with a couple of bookmakers) seems a big price when he would probably have been around 2/1 under 'normal' circumstances.

2pts Woods to win the US Masters at 5/1, Skybet, Totesport, exchanges
4pts Woods to finish in the top five at 15/8, Betfair

Kings and Queens

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 07:00:00 +0000

Master Minded is 10/11 to win the Queen Mother Champion Chase on Wednesday, meaning there's some attractive each-way options in the rest of the field. The second fav, Kalahari King, has a fine record at the course, having finished second in last year's Arkle by a short head, and a respectable fourth (behind Captain Cee Bee and Binocular) in the 2008 Supreme Novices Hurdle. Both of these runs were on good to soft, which is most likely what we'll get again this time around, but if the ground does dry Kalahari King will like that even more.

Forpadydeplasterer beat Kalahari King to win the Arkle, having also managed a fourth place in a 2008 novice hurdle. This season has seen two defeats, including by 15 lengths from a rejuvenated Twist Magic at Sandown, but both these runs were on soft ground.

Twist Magic (7/1 third favourite) has been impressive in the last year, but has never produced the goods at Cheltenham. Is that really just down to bad luck?

Finally veteran Well Chief is past his best now but has an excellent record when running fresh after a long break, as well as a very good record at Cheltenham, where he surprised a few people last year by taking second to Master Minded in this race. A place is not out of the question.

Kalahari King is my one selection but the widely available 9s on Forpady' and 33s on Well Chief are also worth considering.

Kalahari King 4 pts ew at 5/1, Coral or Betfred

Money Back Guaranteed

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 23:00:00 +0000

Paddy Power have a good money-back offer on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, the first race on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival, a week Tuesday. They will refund any losing bets if the odds-on favourite, Dunguib, wins the race, up to a maximum of £200. A number of horses are entered into other races at the Festival, so these are best dodged as may not run in the Supreme Novices. Of those that will definitely run my preference is for Blackstairmountain, which won on it's hurdling debut at Punchestown on heavy going, but is, according to trainer Willie Mullins, 'much more suited to better ground'. I'm also having a saver on Henderson's unbeaten Oscar Whisky:

Supreme Novices Hurdle, Paddy Power refund if Dunguib wins offer:
3 pts Blackstairmountain at 13
1 pt Oscar Whisky at 11

Winter Olympics 2010

noreply@blogger.com (The Contrarian) — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:00:00 +0000

The words 'Winter Olympics' tend to conjure one of two images: either that of plucky Brits being heroically hopeless in an Eddie the Eagle manner; or, alternatively, the swift conversion of the BBC audience to a hitherto little known sport such as curling, once we sniff the chance of a medal. It may please you to know that the 2010 games in Vancouver promise to be less of the former and more of the latter. For despite winning just one medal in 2006 - Shelley Rudman's silver in the women's skeleton - big things are being predicted this time:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/olympics/5159148/Great-Britain-on-course-for-best-ever-Winter-Olympics-performance-in-Vancouver-2010.html

Now since that article (April 2009) the media story has focused on the funding crisis, most recently the possibility of Snowsport GB going into administration and the impact this may have had on British athletes preparation. Snowboarder Zoe Gillings, for example, whose blog you can find here, was only able to practise for four days on snow before the winter season began, rather than the 5-6 weeks she'd planned.

The best medal chances you would think would be the events in which GB have the current world champions: the women's bobsleigh and the men's curling, plus the women's skeleton in which Rudman and Amy Williams are currently ranked second and fifth in the world. However in the women's bobsleigh the driver, Nicola Minichiello, has had to undergo surgery to correct a rare eye condition (the same one as Paul Scholes suffered from) as recently as late January. So there is another reason to be dampen optimism, on top of the funding issues. But nonetheless:

8 pts GB to win 3 or more medals at 7/4, Skybet
2 pts GB to win 4 or more medals at 4/1, Coral

One single event that interests me is the men's curling, where the British (i.e. Scottish) team are world champs, narrowly beating Canada in Canada in 2009, having lost to them in the final in 2008. Canada are undoubtedly the best team - they'd been 12 months unbeaten going into the Worlds - with home advantage and a record of 1st in 2007 and 2008 before coming second last year they should surely be shorter than Skybet's 10/11. The 9/2 (bet365, betfred or expekt) on GB has some appeal too.

5 pts Canada to win men's curling at 10/11, Skybet

Predictions made last November put Canada, Germany and the US at the top of the overall medal pile, with the hosts just edging it:

Total medals
Canada 29
USA 28
Germany 28
Norway 25
Austria 18

6 pts Canada at 3/1, Betfred or William Hill
4 pts USA at 11/2, Skybet or bwin
4 pts laying Germany at 6/4, Betfair

In terms of total gold medals:
USA 13
Norway 11
Germany 9
Austria 8
Canada 6
China 6

5 pts USA at 15/4 Sportingbet, StanJames, expekt, Bwin
3 pts Norway at 13/2 expekt

12/2/10: It's worth adding to the Norway position as there are some very attractive prices about them topping the medal table:

3 pts Norway to top the medal table at 9/1, Skybet (8/1 available with Totesport).