My summer forecasts are here on the Examiner.com website:
http://www.examiner.com/x-53289-Boulder-Weather-Examiner

Check ‘em out…and don’t get zapped by lightning!

It’s been a great season!  THANK YOU for supporting me (Joel Gratz) and the Colorado Powder Forecast.  The Quick Forecast page is updated for the last time this season (unless there is another large snowstorm).

Can you hang out for one minute to tiddy up a bit?

Help with survey, win $300

The Colorado Powder Forecast endeavors to offer so much more for next season.  In fact, I hope it will be a game-changer of a website & mobile application.  Please help me get started:

Tip Jar

I love forecasting snow in Colorado.  I love it so much, I quit my corporate meteorology job in January, and I hope to develop a sustainable business around powder forecasting starting next season.  For now, though, I am happy to take tips:-)  A few fans suggested a tip jar, and I’m not opposed.  Don’t feel obligated, as your readership is plenty and passing along the site to friends is even better.

If you want to give a few bucks, click here, and THANK YOU!

Summer forecasts coming soon!

Yep, I like to hike, bike, and climb as well.  Don’t we all?  Sometimes the weather gets in the way – especially those damn thunderstorms with very dangerous lightning.  I’m working on a website to give you the inside scoop on summer weather as well!

I’m not one to brag (usually, though I am an only child).  However, last week’s powder days on Tuesday & Wednesday were definitely something to brag about, from both a forecasting and skiing perspetive.  The first three runs at Vail on Wednesday were the deepest and lightest I’ve ever skied.  Here is a picture from Vail’s sidecountry on Wednesday (in bounds looked similar), and a report from the GlutenFreeSnowboarder.  Hope you were out making turns!

The end to the lift-accessed season is coming up for most resorts, and the forecast is marginal.  A little bit of snow this week (with more dust), and then an “iffy” weekend.  Check the Quick Forecast page for the details.

The Mayor of CS Irwin

Crested Butte is an intriguing place, with an authentically small town nestled in between some big mountains.  Now, it’s even more intriguing because a nearby cat skiing operation (CS Irwin) is back in business and very well financed (i.e. it’s a gem of an operation).

About eight miles west of Crested Butte is the town of Irwin, which gets 600″ of snow per year, or 2-3 times more than nearby CB.  One cool thing about their operation?  The cat picks you up IN TOWN at Crested Butte and shuttles you up to Irwin with the luxury of leather, satellite radio, and a flat-screen TV.  Another cool thing?  The Mountain Operations Director is Alan Bernholtz, a heady but fun guy who was once the Mayor of Crested Butte, founded the Crested Butte Mountain Guides, and also founded the local Crested Butte Avalanche Center.

This operation is small, with a maximum of 10 guests per day on a single cat.  The terrain is playful, and because they are targeting families, a single trip up the hill in a cat can access intermediate AND advanced terrain at different drop-off points.  With additional hospitality buildings under construction in downtown CB, CS Irwin might be a good place to put on the “we should visit” list for next season.

Check out this video for a 90-second story about CS Irwin and the fun day we spent skiing on some Wagner Custom Skis.

Monarch’s Trees

Monarch is another one of Colorado’s smaller ski areas that deserves more attention.  I heard rave reviews during February as friends told stories of endless faceshots in the Mirkwood bowl, but it wasn’t until recently that I was able to give Monarch a try for myself.

Here’s why you should try Monarch next year:

• Small mountain feel with mostly locals in attendance and a fun atmosphere in the lodge.
• Solid upper steeps that would be the perfect pitch for a powder day.
• Plentiful trees with good spacing that hold cold powder for days.
• It’s cheap and avoids all the I-70 mess.

Some other observations:

• While the listed vertical is about 1,100ft, only the top ~700ft provides a good pitch.
• The hike to Mirkwood is only 10 minutes, but it keeps the area less tracked.
• Cat skiing accesses terrain outside of the ropes, and the cost is relatively low.

It’s a beautiful view looking east from the continental divide:

The top of Mirkwood is steep (excuse the dusty snow):

A partial view looking back up Mirkwood Bowl:

$300 coming your way

Want $300 in new gear?  Want to design a leading product for next ski season?  Watch this site for details on Thursday!

Tuesday & Wednesday will be $$$

Forget about New Year’s resolutions – you’ve probably already broken any promises you made to yourself.

So scale down your ambitions to something that you can achieve – this week!  Resolve to get in a least one great powder day in April before trading in the skis for shorts.  This is a limited time offer as resorts are closing and the sun is getting stronger.  Enjoy the fluff while it lasts!

In short – Tuesday and Wednesday will be great.  See the Quick Forecast page for details, and this timeline to help you plan your sick day:

Highlands Closing

If you haven’t been to Aspen Highlands on closing day, mark it on your calendar for next year.  The mountain is amazing no matter what day it is, but a closing day with fresh powder in the morning and a crazy (I mean it) party in the afternoon is hard to beat.  Also, the entire crowd cheered on the ski patrol as they descended the mountain for the last time this season.  Now that’s hometown spirit…

West side of the bowl:

Ripping in the G zones:

Party time:

Season Pass Deals

Yep – it’s already time to start thinking about next season.  In addition to the much hyped Vail Resorts Epic Pass, the Rocky Mountain Super Pass + is good for Copper, Winter Park, and six days at Steamboat.  Loveland is also offering a seasons pass that includes a few free days at Monarch and Durango.

There are plenty of other options out there, too.  Want to know which passes in Colorado offer the best deal, per acre of terrain?  Check out this page from the Skiing Examiner.

You should tell your boss that on Thursday – April fools day – you will coming to work as usual.  Then, on Wednesday night, play the best joke of all on your boss and get to the mountains of choice to await some excellent powder on Thursday (and Friday).

April is lookin’ good, as two good storms are on tap for the next seven days.  More details below.

Help Yourself

If you have been involved in an avalanche incident, please check out this survey from Backcountry Access.  The survey helps them with product development, and you can remain anonymous.  If you choose to share some personal info with them, they’ll make it worth you while and send you some goodies.

Also, there are some great end-of-season deals for the last few weeks of the season.  Check out these specials from Colorado Ski Country and from Vail Resorts.

Oh, and if you’re heading to Keystone, here’s a new iPhone App called Visit Keystone (iTunes Link) that will help you find what you want and save you a few bucks.

Big snow on April Fools

Snow – it’s the gift that just keeps on giving, well into spring.  A big storm is aimed at Colorado, and this storm will bring VERY heavy snow to the San Juans on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  By midday Thursday through Thursday night, snow should spread across the rest of the state, making Friday a great powder day for most places.

Details on the Quick Forecast page (1-2 FEET in some spots).

Here is a Water Vapor image  of the storm (blue/green = more moisture).  It’s a big guy, and it’s going to hit almost all of the Colorado mountains.

Convection is your friend

The storm last Friday threw down quite a bit of snow (20-24″ in Telluride and Silverton).  The reason?  A few bursts of convection, or what we normally call thunderstorms in the summer.  Though winter-time convection isn’t as strong as summer convection (usually no lightning and thunder), the result can still be very heavy precipitation.  The upcoming storm will also produce some convection on Thursday afternoon, potentially putting down lots of snow in short time.

March is shaping up just like a typical woman: Moody, but that’s to be expected.

The weather over the last week has been moody indeed, as I’ve been on my road bike in warm sunshine and then skied deep powder the next day.  Gotta love it!

We have one more storm coming on Friday and Friday night, which will spread the deep snow mostly across the western mountains (though Echo/Eldora and other eastern mountains could also get another round a decent pow).

After this next storm, it’ll be beer drinking, spring skiing, and road biking weather until next Thursday, when a BIG storm will arrive just in time for April Fools.

Keep reading for more about Friday’s storm, the secret that Loveland keeps above the tunnel, and a recap about the last storm that shut down I-70 with 4-6 inch per hour snowfall and brought about 2 feet to the eastern slopes.

Next Storm?  Head West!

There she is … the next in a series of moody March storms.  The image shows the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (blue/green = more moisture), and the storm of interest is actually the “leaning U” shape to the west of California.  As this “U” moves toward Colorado, it will lift the moist air ahead of it and produce a good deal of snow for the state.

A detailed breakdown of the storm is located on my “Quick Forecast” page, which I will update if anything changes with the current forecast.  Unlike the last two storms that brought the heaviest accumulations EAST of the divide, this storm should bring substantial (up to a foot) accumulations to many mountains west of the divide.  There is about a 50/50 chance (love it when meteorologists say that!) that this storm could produce ~6 hours of upslope winds (from the east) that once again bring decent snow to Echo & Eldora.  If this does not happen, then my snow totals for these two mountains will be too high…

A strong wind from the north should hit the I-70 area Friday afternoon and Friday night, which favors Summit Co., Winter Park, and Loveland with heavier snow.  Loveland, you say?  I drive under it on my way to other places.  Not so fast…

Loveland’s Surprise

Yes, I have been lacking some love in my life.  Hi.  I’m Joel Gratz.  And I’ve never skied at Loveland.  Rather than persecute me, just trust me that this place has A LOT to offer.  I arrived last Friday morning to see upslope flow that wasn’t quite strong enough to bring the heavy snow up to 11-13,000ft.  Conditions were a “bit” choppy to say the least, with a few inches over some hard pack.  But looking around, the terrain choices were impressive.

Skier: Joel Gratz. Photographer: Caleb Wray. 3/19/2010

The terrain behind me shows just a glimpse of what lies above the tunnel.  There are plenty of hike-to choices and a wide variety of stuff above treeline:

Basically, Loveland would rock on a powder day, and there are a few more coming up in the next 10 days.  The first of which – on Saturday – might be worth a trip.  The ski area maintains an active Facebook page with very recent pictures, especially when there’s powder!

20″ at Eldora?!  Storm recap.

I sampled some (low angle) backcountry about 15 miles north of Eldora on Wednesday.  And yes, the 18-24″ skied very well, despite it being on the heavier side.  And a big thanks to the plow operators who made it a piece of cake to get to the trailhead!  Want to see the video from this expedition?  Hold your horses…I’ll post it next week when the state is high and dry.

I had to “up” my snow forecast on Tuesday afternoon (in the middle of the storm), as very moist air from the south wrapped around the storm and gave a few hours of heavy snow to the I-70 corridor west of the divide.  If the center of the storm was 50 miles further north or south, the snow totals would look vastly different.

East of the divide, the possibility definitely existed for Eldora and Echo to see 1-2 FEET of powder, but my initial forecast was more conservative – up to about a foot.

A reader asked me why these resorts got so much more than I forecast.  The simple answer is that I have a hard time forecasting 20″ of snow, because this much rarely falls in any 24 hour time period in Colorado.  It can definitely happen, and it takes everything to come together perfectly in the atmosphere.  The actual snow totals for this storm (for all of Colorado) were on the very low end of the ranges by CAIC and the National Weather Service. While I attempt to provide a very accurate forecast, I also like to stay a little conservative – because very few people will complain if more snow falls than is forecast!

The forecast shown below is after I updated it mid-storm.  My previous forecast was much lower for some areas.

[Don't forget to check out the updated Quick Forecast section]

There is only one thing worse than getting very little snow when the forecast called for nearly a foot: When you made the forecast.

This was my sad reality as I drove up to Steamboat on Saturday morning.  My forecast was wrong (2-4″ instead of 8-12″), but the actual snow totals didn’t even matter.  Any new snow that fell was blown to Utah by hurricane-force winds from the east.

Great setup to go cat skiing, huh?

Needless to say, I was pretty bummed, but I had a shred of hope that on a bluebird, warm, windless day,  at least we would find one or two decent runs.  Honestly though, I had no expectations of leaving Steamboat later that day with a smile.

Great Experience at Steamboat Powdercats

It’s two-minute video time, which is the best way to show why I actually had an amazing time – far better than I expected – at Steamboat Powdercats on Saturday.

This was my first time cat skiing, and I’m addicted.  Here’s why:

• No parking hassles.  No rushing to beat lift lines.  No losing friends all over the mountain.

• Plenty of runs (13) in good, playful terrain.

• Getting to meet other people like you – addicted to skiing good snow.

• Groups set by ability level.  We never had to wait for stragglers.

• Feeling relaxed, well fed, and happy the whole day.  The relaxation is probably like going to a spa (I’ve never been), except you get to ski instead of put some vegetable-based mask on your face.

• It isn’t cheap (usually around $300-400/day), but completely worth it since our ski passes in Colorado are generally pretty good deals, leaving some money to treat yourself to a 1st-class experience.  The people at Steamboat Powdercats also said they have an end-of-season special to save a few bucks (15-20%).

• The terrain on Buff Pass (where we skied) can be somewhat short (500-750 vertical feet per run is my guess), but it is VERY playful and fun in a “I’m not going to die” kinda way.

A few people at Steamboat Powdercats told me the same thing: Over 70% of customers come back.  I spoke to a few customers who come back three or four times per season.  This speaks volumes about the fun and value of cat skiing, as well as the professionalism of Steamboat Powdercats.  Truly, it was a first-rate day … and there wasn’t even deep pow.  I can’t image how much fun it could be with 1-2 feet of blower…

[Disclaimer: Steamboat Powdercats invited me to ski with them in exchange for writing this review.  This positive review is wholly truthful, as I will always be honest about my experiences, both good and bad.  This is also the first cat skiing experience of my life, so while I had a 1st class time, I cannot compare it to other operations.]

The snowstorm that wasn’t (for some)

My last forecast worked out pretty well for some areas, and terribly for others.  In general, the storm on Friday (March 19th) was over-forecast for many mountains.  In hindsight, the reason is pretty obvious.  The wind direction at mountain-top level was from the east, which is an unfavorable orographic direction for Steamboat, Summit Co., and some other areas in central Colorado.  Also, the upslope (from the east) winds were strong between about 5,000ft and 10,000ft which gave Echo and Eldora some big totals, but these winds lacked the moisture needed to produce heavy snow above about 10,000ft.  This is why Winter Park, Loveland, and Abasin only saw a few wind-blown inches.

Every blown forecast makes the next forecast better, however.  I’ve learned a good lesson, and although snowstorms will always be tricky to forecast, it’s helpful to learn from past mistakes!

Actual snow totals and my initial forecast (made on Thursday, March 18th) is below.

Snow is coming…don’t panic, go skiing!

Since when did snow become apocalyptic?  On the one hand, every news station imaginable is saying that the March blizzard is upon us.  Apparently I should get anxious about the morning rush hour, buy eggs at the super market, and plan to hibernate – while watching the TV news – until the snow stops.  Hmmm…that’s just what they’d WANT you to do:-)

On the other hand, I think Friday and Saturday will be great days to head to the slopes.  Lots of snow, and by Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, the powder should be deep enough to hide the sun-baked crusty bottom layer, making for some smooth turns.

I’m excited for this storm, and go to my latest forecast and snow totals (on the “Quick Forecast” page).

This is just a sample...hit the Quick Forecast page for all the snow totals.

But – it’s your choice.  You could be excited for snow and plan to enjoy the powder, or you could bite your fingernails while nervously expecting the worst destruction imaginable.  If it’s the latter, head over to Channel 7’s website, to catch a scary map of weather warnings and a tutorial on how to draw different sized arrows.

I like Channel 7’s chief Meteorologist Mike Nelson.  I’ve seen him speak and know that he is a great meteorologist with an extensive knowledge of the weather.  So this is not hating on Mike – just a general commentary about the absurdity of the “scary” delivery of TV weather.

Best Powder Fri PM / Sat AM

The snow will come down very heavily overnight on Thursday, and by sunrise Friday morning there will be at least a few inches for most mountains, the eastern foothills, and urban Denver areas.  Snow will continue through Friday, with the deepest snow piling up along and east of the divide from Abasin to Loveland, Winter Park, Echo and Eldora.  Other areas will still see snow on Friday, but it might be more of the on-and-off variety of snowfall.

Snow could get a bit heavier Friday night into Saturday morning, and this will be the really light & fluffy type of snow.  Hopefully, the snow on Friday lays down a good base, and with a few more inches of the fluff on Friday night and Saturday before noon, it will be worth your while to be first in line on Saturday morning.

If you’re leaving from Denver, do your best to get out of town Thursday night.  Roads on Friday morning could be bad, then turn just wet/slushy during the day, and get icier by Friday night.  With fresh snow in the mountains and in people’s backyards around Denver, there is sure to be a surge in traffic on Saturday morning…don’t get caught!

Cold Front, Upslope, & Midnight Surprise

This storm is coming in multiple pieces.  It is not Colorado’s typical springtime snowstorm, with feet of heavy, wet snow around Denver and little in the western mountains.  Instead, this storm is from the north with colder air, fluffy snow, and will hit most of the state.

1st Grade Intelligence

I talked with another group of “Cloud Experts” this morning – cloud experts in the 1st grade, that is.  This group in the Cherry Creek school district was awesome, and asked some great questions:

“How is hail formed?”

“When planes fly into a hurricane, and how dangerous is it?”

“Are we going to have enough snow to have school canceled on Friday?”

Actually, the last question was not asked, but I know it was on their minds:-)  My reply?  “It’ll be snowing when you wake up on Friday, but I’m not the district superintendent.”  I think they’re still excited to play in the snow…

Just a small town girl
Livin’ in a lonely world
She took the midnight train
Goin’ anywhere
Just a city boy
Born and raised in South Detroit
He took the midnight train
Goin’ anywhere

Sure…it’s 60 – almost 70 degrees this week in the lower elevations.  Yes, you should be outside in shortsleeves drinking a beer.  Yes, you should tune up that mountain bike.  But, you shouldn’t stop believin’ (listen to the song) in the snow, because powder days are on their way for Friday and Saturday!  This variety in the weather, for the upteenth time, is why I love Colorado.

NEW “Quick Forecast” Section

You asked for it, and I was tired of being ambiguous, so I present to you the brand new “Quick Forecast” section.  I’ll provide some insight into the forecast within each blog post, but the “Quick Forecast” page will be your go-to source for all the details.

Get to it from the top or side of any page.

See snow totals – BY RESORT – for the next 5 days.

Read a written forecast for the next week.

Powder on Fri/Sat

Powder days will be Friday and Saturday before noon (the sun and crowds will chop up the powder by Saturday afternoon).

A strong storm is going to drop out of the northwest on Thursday and strengthen over Colorado.  This means that all of our mountains will see some snow.  The northern mountains along I-70 will one again get into the action.  With good upslope (from the east) winds, the front range mountains and urban flatlands will also see snow.  And with the storm dropping south through all of Colorado, the central and southern mountains won’t miss out.

The Wolf Creek Story

Our own Gluten Free Snowboarder (from Boulder, of course) just got back from Wolf Creek.  And man, his pictures and description about two days of solitary powder convinced me that the WC is not just for Texans on spring break.  Here’s a quick sample, and for more – be sure to check out his latest blog post.

Now if you don’t like to hike at a ski resort, then Wolf Creek is a fairly small mountain with slow lifts and a lot of flats. However, if you don’t mind earning your turns, Wolf is as fun as it gets. Their terrain is situated on the Continental Divide and the ridgeline trails you hike are actually part of the Continental Divide trail that you can hike in the summer. In the winter though, they lead to exciting steeps and powder filled bowls.

Last storm review

As the storm held its strength and moved from northern Utah to the four corners, heavy snow bands impacted Powderhorn, Telluride, Durango, Silverton, Wolf Creek, and Monarch.  These snow bands were mostly rotating in from the east, so the orographics (moist air hitting a mountain, being forced to rise, and dropping snow) were a little different than the normal patterns where the wind comes from the west or south.

A good upslope wind (from the eastern plains) also developed, providing good snow totals to the front range mountains.

Overall, I was stubborn with this storm and refused to up my snow totals even when the storm came in stronger than expected.  The many “0″ totals showing up in the middle of the state are the reason I was reluctant to forecast higher amounts…

A new metal bridge and stairs open up easier access to the Gold Hill Chutes at Telluride. Add in the recent 19" of snow, and this seems like a pretty good deal!

To the people that spend countless hours hiking (i.e. uphill walking) in the mountains, you’ve got it all wrong.  Scrambling over scree fields, dodging boulders, finding a path.  Nope – that’s B.S.  Welcome to the 21st century folks – we use stairs!

And two weeks ago, Telluride finally caught up to the times as they installed some stairs (and a bridge) to make a somewhat sketchy hike out to the Gold Hill Chutes just a little less sketchy.  Here is a great video of the stairs being airlifted into position, and a press release with a little more info.  Bonus #1: the stairs were locally designed and built in Telluride.  Bonus #2: Telluride hit a gold mine and (surprisingly, at least to me) found 19″ of freshies in the last three days.  With more snow on the way for Sunday, maybe heading to Tride would make this a fun weekend.

Speaking of stairs, I hear this is the new way to ascend Mt. Everest!  Just kidding of course – ladders (not stairs) are used to cross crevasses on the way up Everest.  But all this thinking of ascending mountains made me realize something truly inspiring about Colorado: I know two groups of people who are heading to Everest in two weeks.  That’s crazy, and a testament to the adventurous spirit that is alive and well in this state!  Brandon and Kristine from the Vail area and Michael Brown & co. from Serac Adventure films are independently traveling across the globe in search of the highest summit in the world (a first ascent for Brandon & Kristine, and some ridiculously high number for Michael).  Good luck to them!

Now, we break away from the Stairway to Heaven and return to your regularly scheduled forecast…

Antique Forecast (Text & Map)

• Friday: Sunny and warm.

• Saturday: Sunny and warm, with more clouds by the afternoon.

• Sunday: Snow moves in by mid morning and lasts throughout the day for Powderhorn, Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek, and Crested Butte with 4-8″ by Monday morning.  Crested Butte, Monarch, and Aspen might see a few inches, while other areas should see little to no snow on Sunday with in-and-out clouds/flurries/sun.

• Monday: If the snow hangs on over night on Sunday, Monday morning could be especially good for Telluride, Silverton, Durango, and Wolf Creek…storm total of 4-8″ by midday Monday.

View CPF: Snow Forecast, March 11, 2010 in a larger map

• Tuesday: Sunny and warm.

• Wednesday: Sunny and warm … maybe a few more clouds.

• Thursday: Low chance of some light snow.

• Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Looks like a good storm is coming in from the northwest, which could favor the I-70 areas up through Steamboat.

Newschool Forecast (Video)