Rockies' Analyst Magazine

Are Colvin and Fowler legitimate or mirages

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Sat, 07 Jul 2012 04:51:00 +0000

Tyler Colvin home-run binge continues

The Colorado Rockies beat Washington Nationals' phenom Stephen Strasburg on Friday with power and from two developing hitters - outfielders Tyler Colvin and Dexter Fowler. Those two are showing Rockies' fans the long driving that no one thought they would provide in 2012.

Colvin hit two homers and now has 13 on the season and 6 in his last 9 games. He has those 13 in only 180 at-bats and hitting them off Strasburg makes his Friday even more impressive.

Fowler hit no. 11, five more than he has ever had before in a season. He now has more homers than doubles (10) and triples (9).

Not lost in that victory was Drew Pomeranz's strong effort - 6 innings of one-hit, shutout ball. Since returning from Triple-A, Pomeranz has allowed only 3 hits and one unearned run in 12 1/3 innings. He has only struck out 7 and has walked 5 but no earned runs over that span of work is highly commendable considering his performance was rough in the minors.

So is Colvin on his way to 20-25 home runs? Is he a future star in Colorado or is he a Seth Smith clone, someone whom fans and the front office believe only needs more time to blossom only to later prove that the player is more effective as a backup?

Is Fowler going to maintain his .288 average and end up with 17 or more homers? Or is he going to remain an enigma?

The Rockies' answers to those questions will determine if they listen to trade offers with an open mind or not

Is Pomeranz going to keep pitching this well? It seems such a strange twist from struggling in the minors. Maybe Pomeranz was bored down there and this is the real him but then again, maybe not. I think, for as well as he's pitched in his last two outings, he's going to have some up-and-down days ahead. The key is do you see an upward trend in positive performances, and volume of them, showing development?

Rockies' Prospects Spotlight

Rockies' 2012 draftees Eddie Butler (46th overall pick) and Ryan Warner (3rd-round selection) each threw 4 strong innings at rookie-league Grand Junction. Butler scattered 2 hits and didn't allow a walk or a run. Warner, meanwhile, allowed only 1 run, on a homer.

Nick Schmidt (Huston Street trade) gave up 4 runs in 5 innings at Triple-A Colorado Springs. In 2 starts since being promoted from Double-A, Schmidt has allowed ten runs in 11 innings for a 8.18 ERA.

Josh Outman walked 3 and gave up 3 runs in 4 2/3 innings at Double-A Tulsa.

A footnote - Charlie Blackmon, after a rough start at Tri-City coming back from injury is now at Triple-A.

Rockies Prospects Spotlight on Rutledge and Dahl

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 23:45:00 +0000


Tulsa's Josh Rutledge

Double-A middle infielder Josh Rutledge has 15 more extra-base hits (39 to 24) than teammate and top prospect Nolan Arenado. Rutledge has also hit .299 while drawing only 14 walks this season.

Grand Junction (rookie league) has pitcher Shawn Stewart, a 31st-round pick this season, standing out. Stuart, a 6-foot-3 and 210-pound righthander, has a 15/1 strikeout-to-base-on-balls rate in 11 innings as a reliever while also allowing but 5 hits and one unearned run.

2012 first-round pick David Dahl, an outfielder, has more RBI (13) and extra-base hits (9) than strikeouts (6) at Grand Junction.

At Low-A Asheville pitcher Chris Jensen has competed but struggled this season. In five May starts, his ERA was 6.75. In his last four starts, his ERA - 2.10. Jensen's stuff is not elite so he has to pitch to spots and to contact well. He had a solid debut season at Tri-City in 2011 but if I had to profile him now, I'd write that his big-league hopes will likely have to be as a reliever.

Guthrie trade value and Rockies prospects spotlight

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Thu, 05 Jul 2012 05:02:00 +0000

Jeremy Guthrie

Jeremy Guthrie has trade value again but the Rockies and their fans must keep in mind that value is of a fourth starter on a good team and that might not bring much exciting quality back in a deal.

Rockies' general manager Dan O'Dowd had to be more than moderately pleased after Guthrie went six innings against St. Louis on July 4th, allowing only two runs, even if the team lost. In his last 18 1/3 innings, Guthrie's ERA has been 3.97, far improved from his overall season ERA of 6.56 coming into the game.

Now, will Guthrie be hotly desired by other teams before the trade deadline? He won't be any team's first choice and his body of work this season will lower his value but if teams believe he's healthy, then his body of work before this season (4.12 ERA in five seasons in Baltimore) will also factor into the price and that benefits the Rockies.

What could Guthrie bring in a trade now? Considering O'Dowd would want a positional player on a major-league roster or a prospect that is either a pitcher or positional talent, you might think the player won't make fans' hearts beat fast in anticipation of them in a Rockies' uniform but that doesn't mean a trade return won't have value. I can't say exactly what teams would part with but it won't be a top prospect.

It's up to O'Dowd to know a fair price, accept it and then hold firm to get it. Yes, the goal is to move Guthrie but it isn't to give him away for pennies on the dollar as Guthrie is a superior, yes superior player to the performance he's put in the books in 2012.

Rockies' Prospects Spotlight

Tyler Gagnon

Tyler Gagnon is back pitching and his first outing in 2012 was in relief, back at Tri-City, where he allowed two doubles (3 hits overall) in two innings, striking out five. The 23-year old Gagnon posted a 2.57 ERA and a .205 batting average against in 14 starts last season.

Outfielder David Dahl, the club's first-round pick in 2012, had three more hits at Grand Junction and now is hitting .375, while going 17-for-37 (.459) in his last 10 games. He's simply been sensational, far more than the Rockies could have expected and is producing more than I anticipated as well. He has but one home run but has belted five doubles, triples and walked more (6) than struck out (5). Dahl also has stolen five bases in seven attempts. All of that is quite a line of early success.

Tyler Anderson

Tyler Anderson, the Rockies' no.1 pick in 2011 threw 5 1/3 innings at Low-A Asheville and allowed only one unearned run. He did walk three. Anderson now has seven quality starts in 10 outings and his ERA sits at 3.08. He's progressing, I imagine, exactly how the Rockies' have hoped.

Tyler Matzek walked four and gave up five runs, four earned in 4 1/3 innings at High-A Modesto. Matzek's inconsistency continues to hold him back from advancing up the ladder in the system and one day might be his professional undoing.

Rockies Prospects Spotlight

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 18:52:00 +0000

Peter Tago

Peter Tago has been a major disappointment since signing but Tuesday, he looked more the part of exciting prospect.

Tago, the 47th overall pick as a California prep in the 2010 draft, has showed a lack of professional control with his pitches and been way more hittable than his talent would indicate he would. His ERA last season - 7.07.

This season, he allowed 15 runs and 10 walks in his first 13 innings (3 starts).

Tuesday, for short-season Tri-City, he looked entirely different, surrendering just three hits, giving up just one walk and one run in five innings. Now that's an outing to build off.

At (rookie league) Grand Junction, 2012 draftees David Dahl and Matt Wessigner had big games as Dahl (OF), the Rockies no. 1 pick out of an Alabama high school, doubled, finished with two hits and jumped his average to .346 and Wessinger (middle infielder), a fifth-round selection out of St. John's University, knocked out three hits (including a triple) and saw his average rise to .333.

Dahl has certainly played well in the early going, showing a lot of bat (9 of his 18 hits are for extra bases).

Wesssinger, at the time he was drafted, seemed to be one of those under-the-radar grinders who has a strong shot at ending up in the majors, like Craig Counsell, Juan Pierre, Jordan Pacheco and Jason Bates.

Both Dahl and Wessinger are looking impressive at Grand Junction.

O'Dowd deserves credit for Francis

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 18:14:00 +0000

Dan O'Dowd found pitching

Who thought Dan O'Dowd's acquisition of former Rockie Jeff Francis would be anything other than wishful thinking that the soft-tossing lefthander would help a poor pitching staff? Well, O'Dowd looks smart now, at least regarding this move.

While he could not have known for certain Francis was capable of pitching like he is now, he still was the man to sign him to a contract.

Francis held the Cardinals to two runs over five innings Tuesday in his latest impressive outing.

Francis' ERA of 5.16 is not attractive but he's strung together four-straight quality starts, allowing only five runs in 21 innings for an ERA of 2.14. He's struck out only 11 during that time but he's walked just two.

What's greater now - O'Dowd's signing of Francis or the lefty's apparent career resurrection?

By the way - the recommendation still stands. Gauge Tyler Colvin's (another home run Tuesday) value on the trade market and if the return on investment is strong, a deal should be struck. If not, you keep Colvin and hope he's one answer to the puzzle for the Rockies.

Outman overmatched and Rockies Prospects shine

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 06:03:00 +0000

Josh Outman can't find success in 2012

Josh Outman is not the answer to any pitching question for the Rockies so far in 2012 but the team has so few choices with injuries to Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa and Juan Nicasio. So the price the Rockies have to pay for Outman and others is another loss, this time to St. Louis on Monday. It didn't have to be this way.

While Outman was giving up two runs in three innings, walking five and leaving the night with his ERA on the season flashing 9.00, a man who could have started for the club was excelling in Oakland.

Mentioned in an earlier publish, Colorado could have chose Indiana prep pitcher Jarod Parker in the first round of the 2007 draft instead of Vanderbilt pitcher Casey Weathers. Parker went ninth overall while Weathers was chosen eighth.

Weathers has never thrown one pitch in the majors because he throws too many balls (130 walks in 155 1/3 innings, an average of over 7 1/2 per nine innings) in the minors.

Parker, meanwhile, in his 11th start in his rookie season, just threw his eighth quality game. Scouts believe he's a front-line pitcher. While I disagree, I do say he's going to be a a very good number three starter or low-level no. 2, even if he's pitching like a no. 1 now.

Regardless, as a pitcher, he's not Weathers and that's all the Rockies need to know and lament.

Of course, you can't just pick on Outman as Tyler Chatwood, back with the Rockies have pitching poorly at Triple-A, posting a 5.79 ERA in nine starts, allowed four runs and five hits in 2 1/3 innings against the Cardinals. His ERA now sits at 8.74.

Rosie's power

Wilin Rosario

Rookie catcher Wilin Rosario hit his 14th home run of the season (179 at-bats) in the loss.

He's hitting a respectable .251 and 24 of his 45 hits are for extra bases. Maybe one day he can become a consistent 25-homer producer. If he can hit .250 or better like he is now, he just might be that power bat the lineup needs to go along with Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki and to a lesser extent, Michael Cuddyer.

He still doesn't walk much (7 this season) and strikes out out too often (49 in 54 games) but his punch, his best weapon in the minors, is playing strong at the MLB level.

The Colvin question

Tyler Colvin homers again for Rockies

So is Tyler Colvin a tease as a power hitter and .300 bat or is the former first-round pick of the Chicago Cubs simply maturing into a starter than can one day be a 20-25 homer hitter?

Did the Rockies' strike gold with him or is he playing out of his mind now, surely to come back to planet earth soon and thus best off being used as a hot trade chip for greater return by a team in contention?

Colvin has nine homers and 32 RBI in 59 games and is hitting at a .303 clip. Nearly half (24 of 49) of his hits are for extra bases. Like Rosario, what concerns me is the aggressiveness that leads to big hits but also few walks and many strikeouts.

The question with Rosario and Colvin has to be - is their power production sustainable with such poor plate defense and a disdain for walks?

The recommendation here, and this might be showing impatience and a lack of trust, is to gauge Colvin's trade value and deal him if the return is strong. I'd seek a trade but hold on to the asset if the Rockies don't get a very hungry buyer who is willing to sacrifice tomorrow a little for today.

Top Prospects' Spotlight

Edwar Cabrera, in his first Triple-A start of the season, struck out 13 in 6 2/3 innings, allowing only one run in winning at Sacramento. Cabrera excelled at Double-A, posting a 2.94 ERA but was in over his head in a premature callup to the Rockies. Back in the minors for more seasoning, Cabrera dominated. The Rockies have to restrain themselves from calling him up again until he further develops a breaking ball he can throw past MLB hitters for strikes.

Tim Wheeler homers

Tim Wheeler hit his first home run of the season and it came off of former Rockies' farmhand Bruce Billings, who was traded to Oakland last season for Mark Ellis.

Double-A Tulsa shortstop Josh Rutledge hit his 11th homer of the season, finished the night with two hits and his average is now back over .300 (.302). Rutledge best profiles as a Rockies' call-up in 2013.

Struggling-but-talented outfielder Corey Dickerson had two hits for Tulsa to raise his average to .224. This struggling for Dickerson, while not ideal, is good for him, as he's being seriously challenged as a hitter. He's excelled since being signed. Is Tulsa his dead end or will he be able to make adjustments and keep chugging towards Coors?

Double-A starter Dan Houston allowed three runs, one earned in six innings, striking out seven, walking just one to lower his ERA to 3.26. Houston will be in Triple-A by season's end and should get a shot with the Rockies next year at some point but with the carnage that has been the big league staff's efforts in 2012, it's not inconceivable that Houston could pitch for the Rockies this season. I maintain he profiles as a reliever who will spot start.

Tulsa reliever Coty Woods gave up a home run, blew his second save of the season and saw his ERA rise to a still-puny 0.83. Yes, he's human.

Pomeranz bullying and Rockies prospects

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 06:13:00 +0000

Pomeranz mows down Padres

Drew Pomeranz announced his return to the Rockies with an oppressive six-inning effort against San Diego, holding the Padres to one unearned run in six innings. In fact, Pomeranz allowed more walks (3) than hits (2).

A Triple-A callup who had been up and down this season at Colorado Springs, Pomeranz, even with just one strikeout, looked right at home in the major leagues, making the Padres' batsman look minor league.

The odds are, based on Pomeranz's season at Triple-A, that he's not going to rule supreme often like he did Sunday. The forecast is for much rough going and disappointing efforts. That's not negativity as much as it is looking at Pomeranz's struggles in the minors and realizing MLB hitters are far less forgiving of mistakes and underdevelopment.

The Rockies, however, did get outstanding pitching in the series as Jeff Francis remained hot in what appears to be a rebirth, Christian Friedrich again looked outstanding against the Padres (the Padres have been very, very good to him) and Pomeranz finished the weekend off in style.

Pitching will get a little more difficult now that the Padres left town and Colorado must face the Cardinals in St. Louis.

Prospects' Spotlight

Trevor Story (by Tony Farlow) caps hot weekend

Low-A shortstop Trevor Story homered twice and collected three hits and DH Will Swanner homered for the second-straight day, and both drove in three runs Sunday.

Story went 7-for-14 over the weekend with 6 RBI while Swanner drove in 8 in his last two games. Swanner is hitting .333 on the season. He is headed toward top-5 status amongst Rockies' hitters.

Story's bat, even with a slump before the All-Star break, continues to be a surprise.

At Grand Junction (rookie league), outfielder David Dahl, the club's first-round pick in 2012, hit his first pro home run. He's hitting .356 on the season. Eddie Butler, the 46th overall pick in 2012, gave up four runs in three innings. Former Colorado prep Ryan Warner, the third-round pick in 2012, allowed five earned runs and six total runs in 2 1/3 innings.

Left-handed pitcher Nick Schmidt, acquired for Huston Street, pitched well at Double-A Tulsa this season but in his first start at Triple-A, gave up six runs in six innings, walking four and allowing two home runs. Not one for the scrapbook.

At short-season Tri-City, outfielder Charlie Blackmon went hitless in four at-bats and his average is now at .241.

Friedrich and Rosario stand out

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 06:02:00 +0000

Rockies' southpaw Christian Friedrich

The Rockies got knocked out by the Padres coming down the stretch Saturday but young players Christian Friedrich and Wilin Rosario again flashed their talent during their rookie campaigns.

While both were rushed to the majors and have struggled at times, they are also showing that they have potential to be solid regulars. It was more of the same Saturday. Friedrich (no. 1 pick, 2008) again stymied the Padres, holding them to one run in five innings, allowing no walks and striking out five. Rosario, meanwhile hit his 13th homer of the season and as a hitter, might be the young prospect catcher the Rockies have always wanted. Rosario wasn't drafted but the Rockies scored in the international market again with him.

Jeremy Guthrie's and Adam Ottavino's combine three-inning, seven-run breakdown cost their team the game.

O'Dowd's thinking

Many fans and some media are upset with the manager Jim Tracy pulling starting pitchers in games they are highly effective, as Jeff Francis and Christian Friedrich have been the last couple of outings.

It makes no sense to them to take out someone who's getting outs and then see the bullpen not live up to that standard.

O'Dowd, meanwhile, is thinking on a different plane. In his eyes, there are only so many quality innings in any pitcher who calls Coors his home address. So by limiting pitchers to 75 pitches, he takes criticism but hopes that quality pitchers will have more durability and staying power.

That's why pitchers are getting yanked despite their effectiveness.

Prospects' Spotlight

Christian Bergman limits the opposition to two runs over six innings in a strong start at High-A Modesto.

Ryan Arrowood allowed only one run in four innings at short-season Tri-City and lowers his ERA to 0.77 in three starts.

Outfielder Jeffrey Poppick doubled twice at Grand Junction (rookie league), where he played his college ball, and is now hitting .391. Poppick's teammate, outfielder David Dahl, the club's no. 1 pick in 2012, smashed his third triple of the season and is now hitting at a .366 clip.


Will Swanner (photo by Tony Farlow)

Catcher Will Swanner hit his third grand slam of the season, shortstop Trevor Story, who played DH on Saturday, doubled and singled and centerfielder Brian Humphries, a player I haven't written about yet, doubled and singled twice at Low-A Asheville. Humphries, a 14th-round pick in 2011 out of Pepperdine, shows little power but has capable plate defense and is more than a singles' hitter.

Outfielder Rafael Ortega homered and finished with 5 RBI for Modesto.

Alex White was tagged for three runs in four innings at Triple-A Colorado Springs.

High-A Modesto reliever Isaiah Froneberger strikes out two of the three batters in retires in the seventh inning then allows three doubles and a home run in the eighth in an uncommonly poor performance for him in 2012.

Francis living in the past

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Sat, 30 Jun 2012 03:31:00 +0000

What has got into Jeff Francis?

Picked off the scrap heap, one of those famous Dan O'Dowd "bounce-back" pitching candidate hopefuls, Francis, who's career appeared dead on arrival has now allowed just three runs in his last 16 innings, spanning three games. That's a 1.69 ERA and enough of a shocker to elicit big eyes and a jaw falling.

While there is no way Francis won't "bounce back" the other way and start allowing four-to-six runs per start he is looking reborn now and one of the few bright pitching lights in the coal mine that is Rockies' pitching.

Other notes

Would you believe that rookie catcher Wilin Rosario has as many homers (12) as Michael Cuddyer, and in 22 fewer games?

Cuddyer is having a solid season but Rosario's best tool, his power (22 of his 42 hits are for extra bases), is playing well and his hit tool, while rough, is much improved from earlier in the season.

The Rockies do know that this Tyler Chatwood callup isn't going to work, don't they?

First appearance back - two runs on four hits with one walk and no strikeouts in one inning.

Rockies Double-A prospects insight from Lewis

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 06:26:00 +0000

The Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report and Rockies' Analyst Magazine spoke to Barry Lewis of the Tulsa World about the Rockies' better Double-A prospects at Tulsa.

Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report: Edwar Cabrera came to Tulsa as a solid prospect. He has been even better than last year in that he is more difficult to hit. His ability to strike guys out has proven to be more challenging and he has been more prone to allowing home runs. What is your overall assessment of him from watching not only him but from seeing so many pitchers in the past?

Lewis: Cabrera’s first-half performance ranks among the five best by a Drillers' pitcher in the past decade and he has been rewarded with a start in the Texas League All-Star Game and a spot in the Futures Game. He has been the North Division’s top pitcher and a strong case could be made for him being the league’s best pitcher so far this season.

There is a feeling whenever he takes the mound that he has a chance to pitch a no-hitter. He came close on April 17 with eight perfect innings before allowing an infield hit, and also allowed only hit in seven innings on June 11.

He’s not bothered by giving up 15 homers in his 15 starts. Most of them have been solo shots. He challenges hitters and does not issue many walks. And he has cut down on the gopher balls, allowing only four in his last seven starts.

It’s not a bad thing that his strikeout total is down compared to last year. He is pitching to contact more and that is allowing him to go deeper into games.

During the past month, his curveball has shown notable improvement to go along with a very effective changeup. Those pitches make it seem like he’s throwing with more velocity than he does with his 89-to-91 mph fastball. That is reminiscent of Jeff Francis, who had the best first half ever by a Drillers pitcher in 2004.

Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report: Does Cabrera look like he can succeed at the major-league level as a starter?

Lewis: Cabrera is very coachable and willing to learn. If he continues to show progress with his curve ball, he can succeed in the majors.

He has been dominant in his last three starts. Although he did not use it as an excuse, a painful tooth that was pulled after his June 6 start may have contributed to his last subpar performance before winning his last three starts.

Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report: Coty Woods has been splendid in relief. For those who haven't seen him pitch, how would you describe what makes him so effective (approach and pitches)?

Lewis: Woods had an amazing first half and has allowed only two runs in 33 appearances.

Last year, Tulsa’s shaky bullpen kept the Drillers from reaching the playoffs. This year, the Drillers did not lose a game it led going into the ninth inning until after it clinched the first-half title.

Woods’ sidearm delivery is deceptive and his pitches seem to jump in on hitters. He pitches inside very well to both lefties and righties.

His favorite major league reliever is Mariano Rivera and uses the same entrance music as Rivera.

Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report: Nolan Arenado was a premium prospect when he arrived in Tulsa and he's held his own but not yet excelled. What have been your impressions of him as a player?

Lewis: Arenado hasn’t dominated as many expected, but he’s still had a very solid first half. It’s important to remember he just turned 21 in April. He expects much bigger things from himself in the second half. He’s been one of the few Drillers to excel with runners in scoring position, batting .338.

Before this season, the only previous time he had been to Oklahoma was on a recruiting visit to Oklahoma State.

Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report: Josh Rutledge hasn't been highly regarded by most scouting media but he continues to produce. What do you see as his strengths? What are the challenges he still faces?

Lewis: Rutledge has shown more power than I expected with 10 homers and 22 doubles. He has been very consistent on offense and defense.

Although he has primarily played shortstop, it looks like he’s very comfortable at second base, where he projects at the major league level.

An area where he could show improvement is drawing more walks, he only has 13, a low number, especially for a leadoff batter.

Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report: Dan Houston and Nick Schmidt - how do they each succeed?

Lewis: Houston and Schmidt have been very consistent. Drillers pitching coach Dave Schuler said Houston has been one of the best he’s seen at getting hitters to swing at his pitch and he utilizes the count

very well.

Schmidt has been a major surprise. He is pitching pain-free for a full season for the first time in his career and he’s pitching as he did when he was a first-round draft choice by San Diego in 2007. He’s got a great work ethic and is enjoying this opportunity after it appeared at one time that injuries would end his career.

Rockies Low-A prospects insight from Maurer

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 05:50:00 +0000

The Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report and Rockies' Analyst Magazine talked to Doug Maurer, the voice of the club's Low-A affiliate Asheville Tourists about that team's better prospects.

Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report: You have some hitters who are solid, young prospects at Asheville. Will Swanner, Trevor Story, Sam Mende and Taylor Featherston. Looking at those players individually, what are your impressions - what makes each one promising, and especially as hitters?

Maurer: Will Swanner has the ability to hit for power and can spray the ball to every part of the field. He has reached base safely in 41-straight games (coming into June 25th) which is a 2012 South Atlantic League high.

Trevor Story shows maturity at the plate even though he is just 19. He hits the ball very hard and can really hit off-speed pitches with power. He is not fooled often. Trevor has good speed, a quick bat, and is fundamentally sound defensively.

Sam Mende has been one of our most consistent bats all year. He is currently on the DL (Disabled List) with an ankle (problem), but he should be back soon and will slide back into the no. 3 spot in the batting order. He attacks fastballs and has greatly improved against breaking balls throughout the season. He hits the ball very hard and has a great feel for the game both on the base-paths and in the field.

Taylor Featherston provided a huge spark for us when he can back to Asheville in mid May. He has some pop with the bat (4 HR's) and runs well. He is hitting over .350 in the month of June and is batting well over .400 in day games this year and he has an OBP (On-Base-Percentage) of .583 when leading off an inning.

Rockies' Prospects Report: Tyler Anderson, the no. 1 pick of the Rockies in 2011 - supposedly a player, when drafted, that was polished and expected to move quickly to the majors. He's surely shown ability and he's also had rough times too. What do you see when you look at him, watch him work on the mound, try to outwit batters?

Maurer: When I look at Anderson, I see an individual who expects to win every time he pitches. His body language on the mound is commanding and it creates an intimidating presence to opposing hitters which he is not afraid to go right after. He features five pitches in his arsenal and he can throw them all for strikes; fastball, cut fastball, change, slider, and curve.

Anderson keeps hitters off balance by mixing his pitches well and a majority of the time he induces weak contact from the opposition. He does not walk many batters which helps his keep his pitch count down; allowing him to work deep into games.

I also really like his work ethic off the field and his desire to consistently improve.

Rockies' Prospects Report: Kenneth Roberts and Russell Brewer have shown productivity out of the pen. Describe their approaches if you will and where they are strong and what challenges they still have as prospects?

Maurer: Roberts and Brewer have been dominating out of the bullpen.

Looking at their numbers it is easy to see they are both having great seasons. Roberts is the lone lefty in our bullpen and he is extremely tough for teams to rally against (He doesn't beat himself, only 4 walks issued in 40 IP). Brewer is the same way. He is a bit more of a strike-out pitcher (10.22 K/9) and he uses his cut fastball a lot which is very tough on right handed batters.

If I had to point to one thing that sets them both apart and is a big reason for their success, it is their smarts. Both Roberts and Brewer are very intelligent individuals and I think that translates into their pitching styles. They can diagnose hitter tendencies and adjust within at-bats to record outs. They each have been really fun to watch this season.

Prospects update: Tago, Rodriguez and White

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Fri, 29 Jun 2012 05:40:00 +0000

Peter Tago was a valued prospect on draft day 2010 and the Rockies jumped at the chance to take the California prep pitcher when he was available at no. 47, as a supplemental first-round selection.

It hasn't been pretty since.

Tago posted a 7.07 ERA in 19 starts in 2011 at Low-A Asheville, walking 72 and striking out 58 (the order is correct) in 90 1/3 innings.

This season at short-season Tri-City, Tago sports a 10.38 ERA in three starts. He turns 20 next week and has talent but he appears to be a bust-in-the-making unless he gets a different coaching voice because so far, what he's heard is not registering.

On the other hand, Wilfredo Rodriguez, a catcher the Rockies took in the seventh round of the recently-concluded 2012 draft, finished with two singles on Thursday and now is hitting .400 at new Rockies' affiliate Grand Junction (CO). Rodriguez doesn't yet have an extra-base hit to his name but his offense is pleasing in the early going.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez's teammate, outfielder Max White, a second-round draftee this season out of a Florida high school, hit his first pro homer. He did strike out twice. He is now hitting .273. He's an athlete with speed who will have to prove he can hit. He profiles as a centerfielder.

Cabrera making too big a jump too soon

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Wed, 27 Jun 2012 19:01:00 +0000


Edwar Cabrera makes it to Rockies

The Rockies, in the midst of a historically bad season of pitching and desperate for answers have made the decision to promote Double-A star Edwar Cabrera to Colorado. That is a mistake.

Cabrera has excelled the last two seasons at High-A Modesto and Double-A Tulsa, making his changeup into a dastardly offering and showing outstanding control. This season he has made himself into, at his most challenging stop in the minors yet, an advanced pitcher by becoming extremely difficult (65 in 98 innings) to hit.

So what's the problem?

Cabrera's strikeouts are down so you wonder how his stuff will play at the major-league level and his home runs allowed (15) are at a higher rate than last season, when it was a concern.

Cabrera won't get himself into much trouble by excessive walks but he still pitches too fat in the zone at times and against the best hitters in the world, that's going to be a dangerous flaw, maybe even a critical one.

For now, the Rockies' lefty will be a starter. Long-term, I still see him in that role, maybe as a no. 4 starter with an outside shot at becoming a no. 3, with improvement. Worst case, he is a fine reliever.

The recommendation here would have been to promote him to Triple-A and let him prove himself the rest of the year.

Helton retirement a question

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Mon, 25 Jun 2012 14:09:00 +0000

Retirement calling Todd Helton

FanGraphs recently published an article detailing, in very scientific form (be warned), that Rockies' first baseman and franchise legend Todd Helton is not as bad as his current numbers and is farther away from retirement than it might appear.

I disagree.

Helton's plate defense (30 walks, 29 strikeouts) is still outstanding, even at age 38 but the rest of his offensive game is extremely sub-standard.

His on-base percentage (.344) is the lowest it's been since his debut season of 1997. His batting average of .245, if the season ended today, would be the lowest of his (.321 average) career.

At 38, those are markers not to be quickly dismissed. Even great players decline quickly at the end.

Proponents of Helton remaining in the game might point to his leadership, drive and ability to still occasionally punch a ball out of the park but at his salary, with the pride Helton has in his performance, it hardly makes sense for him to hang on, except for numbers. He is at the stage of his career where he is a backup, yet one who starts more than he sits.

Helton's numbers are staggering and ones that will be stand as records for decades, despite the presence of Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki on the roster and signed long term.

Helton is the Rockies' Babe Ruth. He's played in 2,110 games, recorded 2,411 hits, 567 doubles and 354 homers while driving in 1,340 runs. He's walked 1,286 times.

If you're a numbers fan, then you hope Helton can stick around to reach 2,500 hits, a distinct posssibility, 600 doubles (would have to play and hit to some degree in 2013) and 1,500 RBI (might take 2012 plus two-more seasons).

The Rockies need a new, productive first baseman and Helton, if willing, could serve as the backup for a year, maybe two but as a player starting the majority of games at first base, Helton should be retired now. Since that won't happen this season, it should happen, the first-starter position at least, at the end of 2012.

Would that be acceptable to Helton, being a backup, playing only occasionally?

Maybe but likely too difficult to accept for him.

Matzek finding and applying answers

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Mon, 25 Jun 2012 05:30:00 +0000


Tyler Matzek showing lasting success

Tyler Matzek might be finding the answers that have long eluded him in the minor leagues, those about how to control his often-dominating stuff.

The Rockies' no. 1 in 2009 out of a California high school, Matzek has always shown elite talent but with it came considerable lack of refinement, specifically a critical lack of control.

However, that might be changing. Notice the pattern of his last seven games. In 45 2/3 innings at High-A Modesto over those seven starts, Matzek has averaged 2.9 walks per game, after issuing 158 free walks in 186 1/3 innings before this season. He walked eight batters in four frames on June 9th. Outside of that difficult day, he's been stellar.

How much so?

In those same 45 2/3 innings, he's held opposing teams to 31 hits and two home runs while striking out 47.

His ERA? 2.96.

Matzek's ability to find a strong delivery and release point, control his pitches and do all this consistently has him progressing after so much time moving sideways in the organization.

No pitcher has more physical talent in the Rockies' system, not even Drew Pomeranz but Matzek has sabotaged his talent with often abysmal control.

On the year, Matzek has proven again how difficult he can be to handle when he can control his work. In 81 2/3 innings on the season, he has 90 strikeouts, has allowed only three homers and just 57 hits. Those are markers of dominance.

His bigger struggle for the lefthander is facing left-handed batters. His K/BB rate is 26/22 in 23 innings. What is maddening about that is that lefties only hit him to the tune of .172. He should force those batters to swing the bat, not let them off the hook.

Against right-handed batters, Matzek has a better 64/33 K/BB rate.

If Matzek ever can own that consistency he's showing over the last 5 weeks, his future is certainly bright. His ceiling is still being the best pitcher the organization has pitching at the big-league-or-minor-league level. His floor, based on his past, is still low - he may not make it or stick for long in the majors.

I believe the Rockies would turn him into a reliever in an effort to get something out of their investment as a worst-case scenario. Their hope has to remain, though, that Matzek will develop, in the next two-to-three years into a solid starter, maybe third in a rotation.

Wheeler driving hard for Rockies callup

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Sun, 24 Jun 2012 04:45:00 +0000


Tim Wheeler

Last season in Double-A Tim Wheeler broke out, hitting 28 doubles and 33 homers while hitting a respectable .287. He became a favored prospect, even with the warning sign of - strikeout prone. An injury early in the season shelved him for over a month but now back in action, his bat looks better than ever and Wheeler could soon scream for the Rockies to call him up to the team with his dazzling hitting.

Wheeler's injury rehabilitation not being complete is likely has been a major factor in him not yet homering at a location - Colorado Springs- and in a league - Pacific Coast - notorious for wild offensive numbers but he's demanded attention anyway by hitting .413 over his last 10 games and .378 in the month of June. Even for the PCL, those are numbers of the highest quality.

Wheeler's power will return. He isn't likely to be a consistent 30-homer player at the major-league level but he should hit, at minimum, 15 a season and could average 20-plus. For Wheeler, the biggest concern is plate discipline and hitting for sufficient average.

He whiffed 142 times in 2011. This season, so far - 24 in 29 games.

Wheeler is likely playing with extreme confidence now. The Rockies will surely be pressed to rush him, but they shouldn't. Encourage him regarding his play, reveal their plans for him but let him work and produce until the power comes around and he has proved himself regarding his ability to hit for average and defend the plate with a larger sample size.

Purple and Black Notes, issue 1

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Fri, 22 Jun 2012 02:42:00 +0000

Sometimes, there is too much to talk about. That's where a notes' column comes in handy - you can cover a multitude of topics - prospects and Rockies both - in ways, such as...


Wilin Rosario showing impressive power as rookie

Rookie catcher Wilin Rosario was known for a plus-power skill set as he hit 40 home runs and 28 doubles in Double-A over two seasons but in what would have constituted one major-league season (162 games) but his plate defense with two strikes was substandard. I thought he was rushed to the majors and would be sent down to Triple-A. Can you, will you say "you were wrong!" Yeah, I was. I assumed pitchers would exploit and use Rosario's lack of discipline at the plate. They have, just not to the extent I anticipated. And Rosario's power? Well, already at 11 homers on the season.

I often decry the Rockies' drafting but Rosario, an international sign, is similar to a first-round talent. The Rockies deserve credit for him.

Double-A shortstop (and future Rockies' second baseman) Josh Rutledge hit over .400 in the second half of 2011 at High-A Modesto and now has 19 doubles and 10 home runs this season. He's the type of player that managers will love.

Edwar Cabrera, a Rutledge teammate in Tulsa, another solid performance Thursday - two earned runs and nine strikeouts. Triple-A is recommended but the Rockies might just have him take a direct flight to them.

By the way, check out the Hitters and Pitchers Rankings: 2012 season page. I've written up the first in-season rankings of the season. And yes, you'll see Rutledge and Cabrera ranked.

Rockies-Phillies impressions from Thursday night - Chris Nelson has created some power in his swing. He now has career-high 5 homers. The ninth-overall pick in 2004 (Jered Weaver went no. 12, Billy Butler, no. 14), Nelson will now be given a big helping of consistent playing time. He has been warm lately. He has to produce or he will almost assuredly not get a chance to ever start for the Rockies and could be gone before 2013.

Jordan Pacheco made his fifth error of the season in limited action. I like his bat too but five errors and limited power does not a starter make, despite what the love of Pacheco's fans might say.

Did Jeff Francis throw five innings of one-run ball? Really? Outstanding outside of mistake that Jimmy Rollins punished.

Rex Brothers' start in 2012 was awful but you knew that wasn't really him out there. His performance has dropped his ERA from 5.87 on May 19th to 4.12 on June 21st. He's a future closer at best, nasty situational lefty at worst or split the difference and make him your tough setup man.

Juan Pierre played three seasons in Colorado. That was 10 years ago. Time passes fast.

Tulowitzki loss another blow in lost season

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 20:14:00 +0000

Troy Tulowitzki endures slumps but he has always found his way out. So slumps haven't been his biggest nemesis. It's not even the opposition most times. It's his body that is the villain. Tulowitzki is out for up to 8 weeks due to a groin injury requiring surgery and the rehabilitation time necessary.

With him, the Rockies were going to lose 90 games this season. Without him, the losses might reach or top 100.


Chris Nelson getting another chance to prove worth

Marco Scutaro, who has finally showed offense lately with two home runs and 5 RBI in his last ten games, will play at shortstop and Chris Nelson, who has been been producing at the highest offensive level (already tied his career high with 4 home runs and with 15 RBI, is one short of that career high) of his disappointing career, will get more playing time, by taking over for Scutaro at second. That's a gift for Nelson, who will get another chance at proving to the Rockies or any other team in the majors that he is worthy of a roster spot and a major-league contract.

The Rockies could conceivably end up with the no. 1 pick in next June's draft (currently, they are in line for the third pick) but they will get staunch competition from San Diego and the Chicago Cubs, along with some other teams. However, with the Rockies' pitching so poor, historically so, Colorado is at least a contender in one way - the drive for the major's worst record and the top draft pick that comes with it.

Destination for Guthrie

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Tue, 19 Jun 2012 10:53:00 +0000


Jeremy Guthrie likely leaving soon

Where oh where is Jeremy Guthrie headed when the Rockies ship him out of town?

The Denver Post has reported Colorado is aggressively pursuing a trade to shed salary and move on from what has proven to be an embarrassing trade where the club sent pitchers Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom to Baltimore, where both are excelling and in return received Guthrie, whom they expected much from but who has given them next to nothing.

The right-hander has a 7.02 ERA in 59 innings. He has had one outstanding start, a couple of quality ones and been awful in eight other appearances in what has been a lost season.

The Post said the Rockies were talking to Toronto about a deal that would net minor-league first baseman Mike McDade. McDade is hitting for average and power but his track record doesn't lead one to believe he's going to be a starter at the major-league level.

Of course, Guthrie's trade value is thin right now and the Blue Jays are hoping to buy for pennies on the dollar, talent wise. Since the Rockies are not going to wait to make a deal, they can't move Guthrie to the bullpen to "right" him and increase his value before the breakup.

So do the Rockies take McDade from the Blue Jays, if that offer is on the table?

The club can do better.

Guthrie, if he's not hurt, and he might be for his game to have fallen apart in 2012, but if he's not, he will vastly improve when leaving Colorado. The trade price should be set more on who he has long been and not as much on this season, although that can't be ignored and does and will affect the price.

If the Jays want him and I'm general manager Dan O'Dowd, I'm asking for young pitching like Drew Hutchison (fastball command and changeup is a nice foundation), Justin Nicolino (bright, young lefthander in A-ball), Aaron Sanchez or Daniel Norris.

If Toronto says "no" then the Rockies say "no."

So if not Toronto, then where? The smart decision would be to a pitchers' park or one that isn't a so-called bandbox, like Cincinnati or Philadelphia are noted for being.

After that, you need a team that has prospects or a player that is attractive and that team has to be willing to swap talent.

So with that criteria, there are some options listed below, focusing solely on prospects. Maybe these teams are not interested, but it never hurts to target trade partners and then call and inquire and create desire.

Atlanta - just lost Brandon Beachy. Needed more pitching even with him. The Braves have a Double-A prospect, left-handed pitcher Sean Gilmartin, a first-round pick a year ago out of Florida State University, who would give the Rockies four quality lefty starting prospects, along with Edwar Cabrera, Tyler Anderson and Tyler Matzek.

San Diego - the park would be the right fit and could help Guthrie get back on track. If the Padres believe they can re-sign him then maybe they do a deal. The Rockies should inquire about prospects Jedd Gyorko, a solid-hitting third baseman who could excel hitting in Denver and hold his own on the road or second baseman Corey Spangenberg who could be a solid top-of-the-order hitter or bat second, while providing speed on the basepaths, something this club desperately needs.

Dodgers - this park also would be a better fit than Coors. Relief prospect Chris Reed would be a nice return gift from Los Angeles. The left-hander has arm strength, a nice changeup and a slider with potential, a combination that would work well for the Rockies.

Special Rockies Update: offensive grades

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 18:52:00 +0000

The Rockies Analyst site is going to be retired and I will now start including that analysis over here.

Today, we review and discuss the Rockies' individual offensive performances in 2012. Any statistics mentioned are through Saturday, June 17th. The injured Troy Tulowitzki will not be discussed.

Grades will be given, based on expectations and production. Those grades, of course, are debatable by all and debate is encouraged. We all should think for ourselves and then engage in dialogue to find out where the truth really lies.

Carlos Gonzalez - having an outstanding season, even with Troy Tulowitzki in the lineup. Can CarGo stay healthy and remain fresh under what has to be an enormous burden to make up for other lineup weaknesses? I don't think he can be considered MVP quality playing on such a poor team but baseball is a team game and he can only be a good teammate and produce. No debate though, he's a star and his game would likely play for any other club in the majors. Grade: A

Jordan Pacheco - his hit tool is his best skill and he's performing - .297. Look closer though and you see he has drawn only 3 walks. That love of swinging the bat, being aggressive is commendable, especially when he has only struck out 18 times in 40 games but you're not always giving away at-bats if you draw a base on balls. The more telling stat is his power - only 1 HR in 40 games. He does have eight doubles. I see Pacheco has a valuable offensive piece, as a utility man but if he can prove he can hit 30-plus doubles or more while hitting around .300 (or better) then maybe he is a starter if placed at a position where power is not expected or if the Rockies surround him with so much power in other areas that Pacheco can be a singles and doubles hitter. Grade: B -

Tyler Colvin - hitting for quality average and power. He's been a surprise and is rebounding from his figurative fall in Chicago. He is aggressive at the plate and that's playing well now but his average could drop as pitchers learn that he is not interested in making them work for a walk and is up there swinging away. His track record is not that of being a high-average hitter. He's been a quality spot starter and reserve. Grade:B

Michael Cuddyer - overpaid but undeniably productive in 2012. He is on track for a highly-productive season offensively and he's proved durable and focused. Without him, the Rockies' offense would be seriously hurt. The decision to trade Seth Smith was a wise move that has panned out right now. Grade: A

Marco Scutaro - most will agree that Scutaro was extremely disappointing, until recently, when his offense has suddenly emerged. If he continues his current-level of performance he's going to be an asset and finish with a quality offensive season. Grade: F (before recent surge), now upgraded - C

Dexter Fowler - no bigger rollercoaster of a player in Rockies' history. His talent is supreme. He could be an All Star and a mega-millions type player. But he's not. He loses focus, can't adjust quickly enough to pitchers and is terribly prone to terrible slumps. I think Fowler has defined himself - this the way it will always be, unless "the right voice (yet to be determined whom)" reaches him. For now, you wait for the good to extra-special, both of which you receive, but also have to ride out the average and bad. Rollercoaster. Grade: B - (he leaves so much of his talent on the table)

Jason Giambi - the home runs haven't been there yet but for his age, he sure looks productive to me in his role. I believe he will show some power later this year. No doubt though, the end is near. He's been a real find for the Rockies. Grade: B -

Eric Young and Chris Nelson - both have skills (speed/Young; versatility/Nelson) but they lack enough offensive production to be anything more than bit players and fringe major-league reserves. The prediction is Young will eventually play with another organization. Maybe Nelson stays and develops further as a reserve but he too could soon be playing elsewhere. Grades: (Young) C; (Nelson) C

Todd Helton - the plate discipline is there but the production is slipping and the end is clearly near. At his age, that's no sin. The end is closer than Helton himself might think. He's had to adjust standards due to injury but there is only so much lower Helton would feel comfortable changing standards again. Still a franchise legend and organization Hall-of-Fame player.

Grade: D + (he's had moments but looks like a seriously-fading player).

Wilin Rosario - his power is as advertised. He's an exciting player. The Rockies, however, rushed him to the majors and his plate defense and hit tool is still underdeveloped. How much improvement is still in Rosario? Maybe much, maybe not. Yes, he's young but will he learn to defend the plate, will he hit for enough average for his power at the catching position be a serious asset to the lineup? If Rosario can learn to hit .270, he could hit 20-25 homers a season. Grade: C +

Cabrera and Woods shine again at Double-A Tulsa

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 03:28:00 +0000

Edwar Cabrera is not as dominant as last year in some respects but he might be a better pitcher in 2012 at Double-A Tulsa.

Cabrera had a ridiculous 217/41 K/BB rate last year in 167 innings. This season those numbers are 73/29. He's allowing more home runs too, not an appealing trait for a future Coors' Field pitcher.

Yet, with his eight-inning, one-unearned-run effort on Saturday night, Cabrera has an ERA of 2.97, improved from last season's 3.34 mark.

Cabrera still pitches too fat in the zone at times and that won't play at Colorado Springs, Denver or anywhere in the major leagues but he if he can find a way to not let his stuff or command slip more he should do just that - pitch in the majors. You hold Double-A hitters to under a .200 batting average on the season, you are accomplished.

Meanwhile, reliever Coty Woods picked up his 12th save and dropped his ERA to 0.31 in 29 1/3 innings.

Recently called-up outfielder Corey Dickerson is finding Double-A a Rubiks' Cube as he is hitting but .190 in six games. He's always hit so one would assume he'll get it going. Kent Matthes, a star a year ago at High-A, however, has hit under .200 most of the year at Tulsa. It's a level where Dickerson, Matthes, Nolan Arenado and Josh Rutledge have to do what Tim Wheeler did in 2011 - find a way to hit.

Rockies see another draft mistake reminder

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Fri, 15 Jun 2012 04:00:00 +0000


Jarrod Parker

The Rockies, as often noted, are where they are after some quality prospects failed to develop as anticipated and because of a series of bad drafting decisions. Another glaring one stared the organization in the face on Thursday at Coors Field.

Jarrod Parker led the Oakland A's past the Rockies with a shutdown effort. Parker, a high school pitcher from Indiana, was the ninth pick (by Arizona, later traded to the A's) in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft, going one spot - just one - after Colorado decided on Vanderbilt power arm and closer Casey Weathers, who's lack of control doomed his ascent, in addition to injury, in the Rockies' system.

Parker was a known quantity. Yes, he was higher risk as a prep player than the college-seasoned Weathers but Parker also had the big arm, potentially MLB quality breaking pitchers and profiled as a starter. Many scouts see him as having top-of-the-rotation ability. I don't view him that strongly but he surely looks like a high-level number three starter.

At the time of the draft, I strongly preferred Parker as the Rockies' choice, with Georgia high school positional player Jason Heyward the alternative. Heyward ended up going 14th to Atlanta, where he started fast but has struggled to evolve further. You can even go so far as to say he has regressed.

To be fair, whom I would have missed on was whom was drafted no. 10, just two spots after Weathers - a pitcher from a North Carolina high school - Madison Bumgarner, who the Giants astutely selected.

Think the Giants know pitching? In addition to Bumgarner, they eagerly grabbed smallish college standout Tim Lincecum and got Matt Cain deep into the first round. The Giants won a World Series with that trio.

There were some interesting stories from the 2007 draft for the Rockies. While most players were busts, the team still has fourth-rounder Isaiah Froneberger with prospect value as a reliever in High-A ball. Fifth-round pitcher Connor Graham showed enough success to be desired by Cleveland in a trade, which netted the Rockies Rafael Betancourt. In the ninth round, the organization took college bat Jordan Pacheco, who is with the big-league club and profiles as a solid backup for years

In the 20th round, the Rockies found value in future bullpen piece Matt Reynolds.

Rockies Prospects Hot Read, June 11

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 04:48:00 +0000

Triple-A Colorado Springs


Tim Wheeler

Outfielder Tim Wheeler (32nd overall pick, 2009) is only hitting .279 on the season after missing time with an injury but he's the positional player I feel most strongly about at Triple-A. He has struck out 18 times in 17 games, a problem that I expected again, and he has only five extra-base hits (no homers) but his body has to fully heal, Wheeler has to trust it and he has to find his swing and strength again. He should, if he stays healthy, hit for average and at least sufficient power in Colorado Springs, earning a callup to the Rockies.

LHP Drew Pomeranz has a 1.73 career ERA in 27 minor-league starts but his MLB ERA of 5.01 shows he needs more seasoning and development. Allowing 35 hits and 12 walks in 30 inning are indicators he is not yet as skilled a pitching surgeon as he needs to be to be in a big-league rotation. I expect that if the Rockies remain patient with him and Pomeranz stays healthy (something I always say) then he will eventually minimize his flaws and profile as a quality no. 2 pitcher (ceiling) or be a high-end no. 3 starter. I don't see him being worse than a no. 4 starter.

Double-A Tulsa

1B Ben Paulsen (3rd round, 2009) was picked out as a player on the rise a year ago by some media but Paulsen isn't a major-league hitter. In 2012, he's hitting .275 with minimal power - 4 homers, 14 total extra-base hits in 49 games. He's been another Rockies' high draftee who failed to develop or never was good as they thought.

Josh Rutledge

2B Josh Rutledge (3rd round, 2010) is outperforming 3B Nolan Arenado (2nd round, 2009). Rutledge's numbers are down significantly this season, as are other High- Modesto graduates Arenado and OF Kent Matthes but Rutledge is hitting .293 with 15 doubles, two triples and eight homers while also stealing 13 bases.

He still struggles to draw base on balls (13 in 60 games) and strikes out too much (40 times) but he still could end up playing for the Rockies. Rutledge is hitting for more average and extra-base power than the highly-acclaimed Arenado, who is not drowning but isn't excelling either. Many will counter that Arenado is only 21 and Rutledge is 23 but there was a large segment of fans and some in the media expecting Arenado to be playing a lot with the Rockies in 2012, which is unlikely to happen. Long-term, Arenado projects as the better player. It just will take another year or two before he's ready for the majors.

The Rockies certainly have pitching prospects at Tulsa. I'm profiling Edwar Cabrera as a MLB starter (at least initially) and Dan Houston, Nick Schmidt, Coty Woods and maybe Joe Gardner as relievers.

Cabrera, however, has to learn how to lessen his propensity to give up home runs as he's allowed one less than every 6 innings. Houston pitches to contact well and keeps the ball in the park but since his stuff isn't strong he has to be fine with his pitches to succeed. Schmidt throws a lot of strikes, has a 6/1 K/BB rate and has a strong arm. He also gets hit a lot and allows too many homers. The bullpen seems perfect for him. Woods (33rd round, 2009) has a career 2.30 ERA in 116 games. His resume just looks MLB quality.

I wonder if Gardner is injured or his approach as changed as his performance pares in comparison to his work last season.

High-A Modesto

A year ago, 59 percent of outfielder Corey Dickerson's hits went for extra bases at Low-A Asheville. In 2012, that number is down to 46 percent but his batting average is way up - from .282 to .338, showing his more contact oriented and accomplished. He's also walking more and striking out less. The power will return. Dickerson's approach is smarter.

RHP Christian Bergman (24th round, 2010) is sporting a 2.80 ERA in 12 starts - in the California League. He succeeds by walking fewer than two batters per nine innings, keeping the ball in the park (one allowed every 14.8 innings) and stranding base runners. He profiles to me as a pitcher who will succeed at Double-A, a place he could see later this season.

LHP Tyler Matzek (1st round, 2009) has greatly improved at Modesto from last season to this one. In 10 starts a year ago, his ERA was 9.82. This year, it's 2.87 in 13 starts. There's always tremendous good and self-destructive tendencies with Matzek. The good? Only one home run and 44 hits allowed in 69 hits. Elite numbers. The self destructive? How about 51 walks. He can't succeed at higher levels with that control flaw.

Isaiah Froneberger

Reliever Isaiah Froneberger has numbers that may make one think of Rex Brothers' minor-league career - high on strikeouts and walks both. Brothers sailed through the minors while Froneberger has languished, until this season, but right now the Georgia lefty looks in line for a promotion to Double-A later this season - 2.18 ERA in 33 innings, no home runs allowed and averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings.

Low-A Asheville

Outfielder Tyler Massey (22-years old) is leading the Tourists in hitting with a .331 average and showing excellent plate defense with 24 walks and 28 strikeouts. The problem is he spent 2009-11 with the club (hitting .214) and some time at Tri-City and didn't anything like the player he is now. Players repeating leagues, especially for the third time aren't usually as valued as players who excel the first time around.

Give Massey credit for being a standout this season but keep in mind he's not an elite or top-shelf prospect.

2011 first-round pick Tyler Anderson has a respectable 3.48 ERA in six starts, has allowed only two home runs in 33 2/3 innings and is walking less than two batters per start but nothing about his early returns indicates he's going to be a star. Does he evolve into a major league starter? Possibly. I just wouldn't invest in him strongly yet as a stock. He would be deemed crafty now but will have to become even more so to succeed as a no. 4 or 5 starter, which is where I believe his ceiling lies. In my estimation, Christian Friedrich was a stronger prospect when drafted and Friedrich is likely to become a no. 4 or 5 starter at best, if not end up in the bullpen himself.

Reliever Kenny Roberts (25th round, 2010) just doesn't walk many (4) or allow many home runs (3) and his ERA of 2.45 is also note worthy. He's not overly difficult to hit but he is a challenge to score on and knock out of the game.


Russell Brewer

Reliever Russell Brewer (31st round, 2010) is stepping forward with his game. A North Carolina native playing in his home state now, he has recorded 31 strikeouts in 29 innings, has a nearly 4/1 K/BB ratio and has surrendered just 19 hits? He has been homered off of 5 times, an area he has to improve on but for now he's a name to watch.

Colorado Rockies better second-day 2012 draftees

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Wed, 06 Jun 2012 04:35:00 +0000


Rockies draft Ryan Warner

The Colorado Rockies second-day effort in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft included eight right-handed pitchers, including a local prep who might turn out to be a better player than their first-round pick.

The Rockies selected Ryan Warner from Pine Creek High School in Colorado Springs in the third supplemental round and that choice could prove astute.

Warner needs a lot of development, physically and skills wise but his foundation in those two areas is solid and thus his future is promising. It's not a stretch to see Warner add velocity, shape to his pitches, weight to his body and become a starting rotation piece and at worse, a MLB reliever, if he remains healthy.

At 6-7, 185, he does not yet have the body he will need to be a solid professional but that will come with training and nutrition.

Being athletic he should be able to vastly improve. It just might take 5 or 6 years.

Now for some of the better picks I believe the Rockies made in the first 15 rounds.


Rockies grab 2B Matt Wessinger

Matt Wessinger, second base, St. John's University (5th round) - loves the game, plays it hard, hit well, has a strong arm, is aggressive on the base paths and just appears to be one of those players you love to have, need to have on your team to set the culture. His skills should further develop. The Rockies need more competition at second base in their system and Wessinger will be a Type-A competitor.

T.J. Oakes, RHP, University of Minnesota (11th round) - has solid fastball that he can do many things with, including command the ball. His breaking pitches are unrefined but if he can create plus-one he profiles as a quality reliever and if he can shape two well consistently, he becomes a candidate to start. Patience will be required but could be a sleeper.

Wilfredo Rodriguez, C, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (7th round) - solid hit tool with power. Problem is, at a premium defensive position, he's not...premium. To be polite, he's a long, long ways away. His bat, though, might develop into one that can play MLB. If he can hone his defensive skills he could be a pleasant surprise. Otherwise, he profiles strictly as a backup.

Third-round pick Tom Murphy is a superior defender now but likely lacks the offensive upside of Rodriguez.

Rockies claim of changing draft ways not factual

noreply@blogger.com (Colorado Rockies Prospects Report) — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 05:48:00 +0000

The Rockies don't know or understand what successful organizations do. Yes, they have hit on Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton, both big stars, in the top-10 of the MLB Amateur Draft but they have missed badly on other top picks Chris Nelson, Greg Reynolds, Casey Weathers and Ian Stewart. The Rockies might one day add David Dahl to that list.

Dahl is the Rockies' first-round draft pick in 2012, a prep outfielder lacking in any great skill set that makes the heart beat faster. To choose Dahl, the Rockies had to pass on California prep pitcher Lucas Gioloto, once considered the undeniable best talent in the draft until he hurt his elbow. Obviously that was a serious concern as Gioloto dropped all the way to the 16th selection. Guess, however, who happily grabbed him?

The Washington Nationals, who have been rebuilding their franchise with elite talent like Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon (another injury risk).

The Nationals confidently know that Gioloto could be a workhorse and show like a no. 1 or 2 starter within 5 to 7 years. If they "hit" on him, he could be a star. I seriously doubt Washington would have drafted him if they knew his elbow would make Gioloto's former stuff only a memory or he was likely to re-injure himself.

The Rockies have never had that kind of talent with the big body, overpowering fastball and breaking stuff and outstanding makeup.

They still don't.

Colorado also passed on Clemson power hitter Richie Shaffer, who profiled well at third and first base (where Helton will not play much longer) and Texas A & M pitcher Michael Wacha, who already has a solid fastball-changeup mix and could profile as an eighth-or-ninth inning arm at least and a no. 3 or 4 starter if he develops a usuable slider. St. Louis knows pitching (see Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright) and happily took Wacha, who has also been compared to Jon Garland, in round one.

The Rockies often try to be smarter than everyone else and get burned.

If they wanted a prep bat, they could have chosen Courtney Hawkins out of the state of Texas, a player who struggles with breaking stuff and plate defense but who has high-level power and an equally high ceiling.

I see Hawkins as extremely risky as a prospect but his potential is levels above Dahl's, whom I project as a fringe starter or fourth outfielder at best.

Second-rounder Eddie Butler, a pitcher from Radford, might very well be another reach. That he is projected as a reliever when the Rockies need starters or more bats is most puzzling.

A year ago the Rockies chose the safe route, going for college left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson, who is competing well at Low-A Asheville but doesn't look any part special in place of the best known prep bat - Josh Bell - who ended up at Pittsburgh.

Colorado is where it is at today not because of one egregious draft mistake but instead a series of them, especially in the first round and higher rounds. The first two picks in 2012 likely are more of the same.