Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report

Moscoso preparing for trip back to Rockies

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Wed, 30 May 2012 04:20:00 +0000


Guillermo Moscoso back on track at Triple-A

Guillermo Moscoso looks like a useful prospect again.

Acquired this past offseason, along with fellow pitcher Josh Outman from Oakland for outfielder Seth Smith, Moscoso was expected to start the season with the Rockies, if not as an end-of-the-rotation starter then certainly as a bullpen piece and spot starter. Moscoso, however, didn't make the team and then was highly disappointing in both Colorado Springs and later Denver (11.57 ERA in two starts), when given the chance with the big-league club.

He looked like a terrible trade mistake but then something interesting happened - Moscoso found his game again. In his last six starts, Moscoso, pitching in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League has posted a 3.65 ERA and been very good in two outings, competitive twice more and awful just once.

In his last four starts, his ERA has been even better - 2.52.

Batters overwhelmed him in April, hitting .393 but in May they have had to work harder, hitting just .231.

The 28-year old Venezuelan again looks like what he was supposed to be when the organization acquired him - another arm for depth for the Rockies. If Moscoso can stay healthy and continue being consistent he will surely end the season with the Rockies.

No Rockies prospect hotter than Mende

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Mon, 28 May 2012 06:03:00 +0000


Mende showing off bat again (photo, Tony Farlow)

No Colorado Rockies' prospect is having a better season than High-A outfielder Corey Dickerson but no prospect is hotter and more torrid with the bat than Low-A shortstop Sam Mende.

After a 4-for-5 effort on Saturday for Asheville, Mende is now hitting an astounding .500 in his last 10 games and a scalding .414 in the month of May.

A 31st-round selection in last year's amateur draft after a poor senior season at the University of South Florida, Mende has way out-played his draft position. Last season in the Pioneer League (Casper), Mende made a lot of noise, hitting 11 doubles and 14 homers in just 46 games, slugging .614 in rookie ball.

In 2012, the power is down as he six homers (but 19 doubles) in 41 games but his average is now sitting at .329 despite only eight walks and 38 strikeouts.

Mende will surely have to improve his plate defense but like Dickerson, Mende has just hit and hit some more since being drafted.

The scout or scouts who convinced the Rockies to draft Mende (and Dickerson for that matter) should be lauded for their work. Both players were drafted long after the first round and yet have played like first-round talents. Mende and Dickerson have a long road to making, sticking and succeeding at the MLB level but to this point, they are doing extremely well.

Rockies 2011 top draft pick Anderson pitching well

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Thu, 24 May 2012 12:32:00 +0000

Tyler Anderson impressing (photo by Tony Farlow)

Tyler Anderson is off to an impressive start to his pro career.

The Rockies' top draft pick in 2011 out of the University of Oregon, Anderson sports a 1.89 ERA after three starts and 19 innings at Low-A Asheville. He has a very strong 7/1 strikeouts-to-base-on-balls ratio and has allowed just one home run and 13 hits.

While I was not high on him being the Rockies' no. 1 selection (over Pirates' draftee and top prep bat Josh Bell), Anderson looks as advertised - polished and ready to move quickly through the system, at least based on such a small sample size.

His upside is reported to be modest but if he can reach the Rockies' in the next year or two at the most and stick, likely as a number four or five starter, then he fills a great organizational need - a competitive pitcher who can throw strikes.

Mende still swinging hot bat

Asheville shortstop Sam Mende now has his average up to .310. He's hitting at a .447 clip over his last ten games.

He has 15 doubles and five homers in 36 games and is a perfect seven-for-seven on the base paths. On the dark side, he has struck out 33 times while walking only eight times.

Pacheco Prospect Flashback

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Tue, 22 May 2012 07:04:00 +0000


Jordan Pacheco Prospect Flashback

Jordan Pacheco added two more hits to his resume on Monday but that shouldn't be a surprise as the current Rockies' backup/utility man's best tool is his hitting. Well, that and his belief in himself and his perseverance.

Pacheco, a 9th-round pick of the team in the 2007 draft out of the University of New Mexico has always played varying degrees of "well" in the minors until he worked his way on to the big-league roster and stuck. To me, he looks like a long-term major-league player simply because he will hit consistently. Probably not for much power but he will for acceptable-or-better for what is expected of him in getting on base.

Pacheco peaked in his days in the bush at Asheville in 2009, hitting .322 at the hitters' park, recording 30 doubles, four triples, 13 homers, 12 steals and 79 RBI. He only struck out 44 times while walking 38. That season got him much more attention as a prospect.

In 2010, he kept at it, gaining more notoriety by hitting .321 in 104 games at Modesto and .333 in 21 contests at Double-A Tulsa. He combined for 26 doubles, three triples, four homes and 69 RBI. He looked like a second-tier but promising prospect.

Pacheco's bat had the appearances of being "real." He was lacking punch but he profiled as a possible MLB player, even if it was more as a backup than starter.

Last season at Triple-A Colorado Springs, Pacheco seemingly stalled out, and at a hitters' park and in a hitters' (Pacific Coast) league. His season of .278, 20 doubles and three homers in 97 games had to be seen as a disappointment, if you will, at least a mild one, based on his resume.

However, the Rockies wanted to see him in a MLB uniform. Pacheco played 21 games with the team and hit a respectable.286. Only three of his 24 hits went for extra bases.

Pacheco is currently at .269 with the Rockies and while he could hit for more power one day, primarily doubles, he is best suited as a backup who can get on base with a single. If he keeps working and does that as well as he is now or slightly better, even with his limitations he will play in the major leagues for a long time. Defensively, he'll play, as in be sufficient.

Mende rebounding strong from slow start

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Mon, 21 May 2012 13:42:00 +0000


Rockies' prospect Sam Mende (photo by Tony Farlow)

Sam Mende and his bat are waking up for Low-A Asheville.

The shortstop was a big surprise in 2011, slugging .614 for Rookie League Casper after being drafted in the 31st round out of the University of South Florida but started very poorly this season.

Mende, however, has hit .372 in May and is even better over his last 10 games, hitting .410.

He has 14 doubles, a triple and five homers but like last season his big problem and maybe fatal flaw is his poor plate defense. He's struck out 34 times in 34 games while drawing his eight walks.

Mende has over-performed for his draft slot, showing outstanding power potential for a middle infielder. If he can significantly improve his plate defense, he could move fast. If May is any indication, Mende is headed the right direction as he only has nine of his 34 K's this month.

Cabrera surrending too many home runs

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Wed, 16 May 2012 06:40:00 +0000


Edwar Cabrera overly generous with home run offerings

Edwar Cabrera made three mistakes Tuesday night and cumulatively it cost him the game as Tulsa lost 3-1 to Northwest Arkansas. Cabrera, arguably the Rockies' second-best pitching prospect behind Drew Pomeranz (not counting the injured Chad Bettis), allowed only five hits in seven innings but three solo home runs did him in.

Cabrera's biggest wart this season has been his propensity to give up the home-run ball and that flaw has to be minimized before Triple-A Colorado Springs and ultimately, Coors Field.

Cabrera did strike out six and walked only one, typical outstanding control but his command is the obstacle with which he still struggles. If he learns to throw higher-quality and thus less-hittable strikes, Cabrera will be in a Rockies' uniform or traded to a team that will certainly put him in their MLB uniform.

Notable Numbers - Outfielder Kent Matthes, a High-A hitting hero in 2011 has been under .200 in 2012 but smashed two doubles Tuesday.

Latest prospect names to know

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Mon, 14 May 2012 04:46:00 +0000


Rockies pitching prospect Tyler Anderson debuts

The Rockies first-round pick in the 2011 draft was University of Oregon pitcher Tyler Anderson, a player thought to be refined and close to the majors. The Rockies, being in need of much more quantity and quality at the major-league level pounced on Anderson when he was available even though a comparable given for him was former Rockie Jeff Francis.

Anderson's debut wasn't much to get excited about - pitching at Low-A Asheville, the allowed three runs, two earned in five frames, striking out just two. He wasn't battered but he hardly looked ahead of the competition. He did show control, walking just one.

Here are other evaluations for this week:

Playing Up

Edwar Cabrera (Double-A Tulsa) has a 3.09 ERA in seven starts, has close to a 4/1 rate of strikeouts to base on balls and has allowed his 29 hits in 43 2/3 innings.

Shortstop Josh Rutledge (Double-A) is not drawing walks and is striking out more than four times more than walking, a serious problem, but his average has been steadily climbing and he is now just shy of .300 for the season, hitting .298, to go along with 11 doubles and 6 homers. He remains an undervalued prospect but scouts and prospect-covering media. He has work to do on plate discipline but it's obvious Rutledge is a player with quality hitting potential.

Coty Woods and Joey Williamson have been highly effective in relief at Tulsa, with Woods not allowing a run in 17 innings and Williamson having a tiny 0.64 ERA in 14 frames.

Outfielder Corey Dickerson (High-A Modesto) is having the best offensive start in the Rockies' system, hitting .356 with 15 doubles, four triples, five homers and 31 RBI. He has struck out 24 times but is drawing walks more (15) this season. Dickerson is like Rutledge in that he is undervalued most places (just not here). He remains a favorite. He just hits and hits and hits.

Outfielder Rafael Ortega (High-A) is slight of build and has little power (only eight extra-base hits) but his bat has been torrid and his average is now at .356.

Isaiah Froneberger (High-A) looked like an over-drafted player until this season. His ERA is sitting at 2.08, he's allowed no home runs and just 11 hits in 21 2/3 innings, while striking out 29. If he can continue to work on his improved control, walking fewer batters (over 4 1/2 per innings), he could move quickly through the system. Watch him closely.

Christian Bergman (High-A) finally found his way in 2011 at Tri-City and this year in Modesto is looking impressive again, with his 3.09 ERA in seven starts. He has almost a 3/1 rate of strikeouts to base on balls, has surrendered just two homers and has allowed fewer hits (36) than innings pitched (43 2/3), all positive markers. He isn't a top-of-the-rotation prospect but he looks like a man who could be in Double-A before the end of the season.

Battling to figure it out

Chris Jensen, a 2011 draft pick and pitching at Low-A like (Tyler) Anderson, and a promising prospect entering the season is looking like he might be maxed out as a starter as he is allowing almost as many hits as innings pitched (38 in 38 1/3 innings), a 3.99 ERA and a 26/15 strikeout-to-base-on-balls rate, showing his stuff is far from strong and he lacks sufficient control.

Top hitting prospect Nolan Arenado (Double-A Tulsa) is hitting a respectable .285 but has only two home runs, 10 doubles and 10 walks. He has struck out 23 times and is being seriously challenged by pitchers for the first time as a professional.

Rockies call up former first-round pick Friedrich

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Tue, 08 May 2012 06:17:00 +0000


Christian Friedrich reaches the majors

The Colorado Rockies aren't hitting enough but their pitching has been even worse. In an effort to overcome ineffectiveness and injury the club has called up left-hander Christian Friedrich, the team's first-round pick in the 2008 Major League Baseball June Amateur Draft. The Rockies have also brought back right-hander Alex White, part of the Ubaldo Jimenez trade last summer.

Friedrich isn't fine-tuned and yet ready for lasting success in the majors but the Rockies are in desperate need of help now and a previous callup of Guillermo Moscoso, also from Triple-A Colorado Springs, was a hopeful remedy move destined for failure as Moscoso was being overwhelmed in the minors.

Friedrich, the 25th overall selection in the 2008 draft, established himself as an outstanding prospect in 2008 and 2009 but was ineffective as a whole the last two seasons at Double-A Tulsa, allowing 256 hits in 220 2/3 innings with 30 homers.

His body looks better in 2012 and he has also been a better player, posting an ERA of 3.00 in five starts. His 23 hits allowed in 30 innings, only one home run given up and 27/4 strikeouts-to-base-on-balls rate are all positive, encouraging and plus markers, especially for an noted offensive league.

Friedrich's sample size of success in 2012 is small, however, and it's not unreasonable to wonder how it balances against two prior poor seasons. Friedrich will have to prove he can still miss sufficient bats at the MLB level and keep the ball in the yard as he has done well for the Sky Sox.

The physical skills are there to make a career but other questions have to be answered before one can believe Friedrich is in the majors to stay and can make a long-term, positive impact on the club.

White had an impressive 2.92 ERA in five starts, hasn't allowed a homer in 24 2/3 innings after giving up 12 in 36 1/3 innings with the Rockies in 2011.

White has a passable 21/8 K/BB rate but has been dinged for 21 hits so the question for him too is will he miss enough bats once facing big-league hitters.

Both players have opportunity to seize.

Will they?

Woods and Roberts both late-round finds

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Mon, 07 May 2012 07:34:00 +0000

Two of the Rockies best current relief prospects played at the same school - Middle Tennessee State - the institution that former Rockies' prospects Jayhawk Owens and Michael McKenry attended.

Coty Woods and Kenneth Roberts were both draft afterthoughts by many Major League Baseball teams but have been successful since the Rockies saw enough value in the two to draft them.

Woods, now at Double-A Tulsa, was a 33rd-round draft pick. He's pitched much better than that round and has not allowed a run in his 13 appearances for the Drillers, and has only issued one walk.

His career ERA in the system is 2.42 in 152 2/3 innings. That's a large-enough sample size to say he has overachieved.

He started strongly at High-A Modesto in 2011 but then struggled down the stretch. If Woods can just slightly improves as this season progresses, missing a few more bats, he will be at Triple-A Colorado Springs come no later than late summer.

Roberts, pitching for Low-A Asheville, has a 1.69 ERA in 13 appearances with 17 strikeouts and zero walks, zero home runs.

His ERA since being drafted in the 25th round is 2.37 in 91 innings.

In all that time, he's surrendered just two homers.

Both Woods and Roberts are older for their leagues but that's not as important as the effectiveness they have had in the Rockies' system and the progress they're making. The draft is more than just the first round and these two are examples.

Cabrera and Matzek have worst outings of season

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Sat, 05 May 2012 09:00:00 +0000

Rockies Double-A pitching prospect Edwar Cabrera had started the season in outstanding fashion with a 1.64 ERA after five starts. On Friday night, he was beat up on the road, giving up six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings. His stuff wasn't working at all. He even walked two batters, a rarity, while striking out only two, another rarity. His performance was way outside off track from the norm.

The good news is it is but one start, his ERA is still 2.87, he has a 6/1 season strikeouts to base-on-balls rate and batters are still only hitting .182 against him.

Tyler Matzek was even worse at High-A Modesto. He didn't allow a hit over three innings but walked eight. Why swing when you can get a free pass by waiting four pitches.Matzek has now walked 24 in 27 2/3 innings, nearly eight per nine innings.

Rockies Recommendation for Street trade return

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Thu, 03 May 2012 06:39:00 +0000


Rockies Recommendation for Street trade return Nick Scmidt

Nick Schmidt and financial relief were the return for Huston Street when the Rockies dealt former closer to San Diego. While Street is off to a good start for the Padres, how has Schmidt looked and what could his future hold?

Schmidt, the Padres no. 1 draft pick in 2007, was a warm body but not much of a prospect when acquired and honestly, still might not have much status as a prospect. However, there might be a blueprint for him to reach the majors.

Pitching at Double-A Tulsa, the 26-year old Schmidt has five starts under his belt and a 3.95 ERA. He as allowed almost as many hits (26) as innings pitched (27 1/3) and has allowed a disappointing five home runs, a rate too high for the amount of frames he's worked.

It's not been all bad though as Schmidt has a 5/1 strikeouts-to-base-on-balls rate (25/5), which means that with his strikeouts, low walks total and home runs allowed, he's throwing a lot of strikes. The problem is too many of them are overly hittable. So either his command isn't strong enough or his stuff is plain.

Rockies Recommendation - The Rockies could see that Schmidt's resume strongly suggests he is not a future MLB starter-in-the-making with his 4.55 ERA in 70 games.

Maybe working on developing and refining one plus-to-outstanding offering, a second dependable pitch and a third one that at least comes and goes with effectiveness could create added value in Schmidt.

Then further teach how to better set hitters up and develop his mental makeup.

All this could transform him into a reliever prospect that has a chance to reach Denver.

Send a mentor to Tulsa to work with the pitching coach on developing the product.

That mentor can either be a former major league pitcher who was both successful and can and likes to teach or a mentor who faced similar struggles as a minor league pitcher but eventually made it to the majors and produced.

The curious game of Will Swanner

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Tue, 01 May 2012 11:24:00 +0000


Will Swanner hitting for high average now too (photo by Tony Farlow)

It's well known in scouting circles that Rockies' catching prospect Will Swanner can hit for power. It's also no secret that his plate defense to this point in his pro career has been extremely poor. So the likelihood of him eventually going bust as a prospect would seem to be high. But that's where the story gets interesting.

A 15th-round pick in the 2010 draft out of a California high school, Swanner had quite the debut, almost unbelievable.

As an 18-year old at Casper of the Pioneer League, the tall, angular backstop hit seven homers and four doubles in just 18 games, batting .303, and doing all that good stuff, if you can believe this, while walking not once and striking out almost twice a game (33 K's).

How Swanner could hit over .300 with that volume of strikeouts and nary a walk seems impossible but he did it.

Last season, again back at Casper, Swanner's average dived to .264 but his power still greatly impressed as he hit 14 doubles, a triple and 10 homers in only 43 games. That means 25 of his 42 hits, or 59.5 percent, were for extra bases.

Swanner did start drawing walks (20) but struck out three times as many times as he drew a base on balls.

This season at Low-A Asheville as a 20-year old, Swanner is again a mystery.

He's cut his strikeouts to less than one a game (14 in 15 contests). He has only two homers through April 30th but has doubled nine times. Here's, though, where it gets fascinating. Swanner is hitting at a .352 clip.

Yes, the sample size is small but hitting for that high of average, especially as a catcher, with his power potential makes Swanner a valued prospect, if not the so-called blue chipper, then certainly a red chip.

If he can continue to work on and improve his plate defense, and prove he can handle the defensive responsibilities of catching, his stock could go through the roof.

I'd still be careful of wishing too strongly on him, at least yet, but Swanner does bear following very closely over the next two-to-three years.

Friedrich, Bergman and Jensen status rising

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 09:56:00 +0000

The Rockies front office has to feel good about its' pitching prospects as it continues to develop quality ones, from Juan Nicasio and Rex Brothers in 2011 to the players on display Sunday.

Left-hander Christian Friedrich went five innings for Triple-A Colorado Springs, giving up two runs in five innings, a serviceable start but not much more. Friedrich has now made four starts on the season.

The good? There's many. A 2.59 ERA, 21 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings, only one home run, four walks and 16 hits allowed. Definitely a lot of positives. Friedrich has been a very pleasant surprise. He looks like a completely new man after two down seasons at Double-A Tulsa.

So any concerns? Yes. Friedrich has had two outstanding starts of one combined earned run allowed in 14 1/3 innings and two average ones (combined 5.40 ERA).

Focusing on his progress, Friedrich bears closer attention. I had come to the conclusion after last season he was going to be a reliever and spot starter but maybe there was more life and development in Friedrich.


Christian Bergman excelling again in 2012

High-A Modesto right-hander Christian Bergman, a 24th-round pick in the 2010 draft, went 6 2/3 innings, allowing two runs and now has a 2.53 ERA in five starts. Four of those starts have been quality. Bergman rose to Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report prominence last season and he is amongst the top-3 healthy pitching prospects in the organization.

Batters are hitting but .207 against him, he hasn't allowed a home run in 32 innings and although he will turn 24 in early May, he's looking like he is in line for a Double-A call-up later this season.

Asheville right-handed starter Chris Jensen, a Rockies top-10 pitching prospect entering the season, threw six innings of one-run ball. His ERA is now 3.76 and like Friedrich, he flashes impressive starts around rough outings. Consistency is called for but the talent is there.

These three pitchers, in addition to Alex White at Triple-A and Double-A star Edwar Cabrera give the Rockies talent, depth and hope for internal solutions to their pitching needs.

Prospect Flashback for Jhoulys Chacin

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 13:25:00 +0000


Jhoulys Chacin Prospect Flashback

Jhoulys Chacin is still but 24-years old and full of talent and potential. A year ago, it seemed Chacin was on the verge of becoming an ace but a mildly disappointing season of inconsistency, lack of control and significant drop in strikeout rate has people wondering who Chacin is and will become. So who was Chacin as a prospect? Did his work coming up through the system tell us who he was or was it misleading? In today's Prospect Flashback, I take a look.

Chacin has a 20-28 major-league record through April 28, 2012 but a 3.65 ERA to go with it, stellar for a Rockies' pitcher. While he's been difficult to hit he has been overly generous to batters in one way, walking 4.22 per nine innings, which has significantly impeded his progress.

As a 19-year old at Casper (rookie league), Chacin showed promise right out of the gate, posting a 3.13 ERA and posting a 3/1 strikeout (K) to base-on-balls (BB) rate. He wasn't a star prospect but he deserved closed attention.

What could not have been predicted from that start was what Chacin would do at age 20 at Low-A Asheville and High-A Modesto. For the Tourists, he dominated, going 10-1, with a 1.86 ERA, allowing just 82 hits and 3 homers in 111 innings. He walked only 30 batters while striking out 98. Simply put, he was brilliant and gave the appearance of being a prospect that could develop into a no. 1 or 2 starter.

For the Nuts during the same season, he 8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 5/1 K/BB rate, showing outstanding control again. He did become much more hittable though, a concern, giving up 61 hits in 66 frames.

Still, Chacin was moving fast, meeting challenges and seeing his stock skyrocket.

At the age of 21, he was already at Double-A. For Tulsa, he looked impressive but no longer dominant, as his ERA was 3.14. He did limit batters to 87 hits in 103 1/3 innings but his K/BB rate was just over 2/1, a big change. Chacin was young for his league so he looked like a strong prospect but maybe no longer a possibility to be a no. 1 starter.

Later that season, he threw 14 innings in Triple-A, finishing with a 3.77 ERA. What was disturbing was that while Chacin struck out 11, he walked 13.

His overall ERA in the minors was 2.57 in 545 2/3 innings. He moved fast, he either held his own or excelled and seemed to be a solid prospect. He didn't have Drew Pomeranz-type expectations but the hopes were high.

Chacin has been outstanding at times and enough of the time that the Rockies, media and fans have thought he could become an outstanding starter. However, he has also struggled with control (1.47 more walks per nine innings in the majors than his prospect totals) and consistency and maybe, that's just who he is. Maybe there will be no more improvement or if so, it will be minimal or moderate.

The Rockies, from appearances, have seemed to be puzzled, if not frustrated with Chacin's inability to control his fastball, be more consistent and elevate his game.

The book here says Chacin will never become a true no. 1 starter and while no. 2 status is still possible, he might best and most comfortably fit as a quality no. 3. His stuff is better than Juan Nicasio but Nicasio might become the better player in time. Pomeranz's stuff is not as good but he too could surpass Chacin.

His minor-league markers showed Chacin had talent and he did reach the majors at a young age. The expectations could have easily been for him to be either a no. 2 or 3 starter, with the latter more likely, and which is more probable of what he will end up being for the majority of his career.

Rockies Pitching Prospects Progress Report

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 07:14:00 +0000

The Rockies are really missing having Chad Bettis (injured) in the minors continuing his development as a prospect but the franchise does have three starters looking strong, maintaining their status while some relievers are working hard to improve their talented games.

Today I take a look at the organization's latest pitching prospects progress report. Players in blue-color bold are named in the Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report Top-10 starters or top relievers entering the 2012 season.

AAA Colorado Springs

Alex White was awful in a late-season call-up for the Rockies in 2011 but he should be still thought of as a solid prospect as he won for the Cleveland Indians in his rookie season last year and looked very good at Double-A Tulsa in the Rockies chain.

In 2012, White has recorded a 2.70 ERA in four starts and 20 innings, with a 17/5 K/BB rate and no home runs allowed. The only concern is he has 18 hits against in those 20 innings, not quite dominant numbers.

Carlos Torres has a 2.29 ERA in 19 innings but be wary. He's been a solid minor-league player (3.47 ERA) but in 42 MLB innings, his ERA is 6.86.

AA Tulsa

Edwar Cabrera keeps impressing and now has a 2.08 ERA in 26 innings with a 7/1 K/BB rate and only 14 hits given up in 26 innings. He, not Christian Friedrich or Tyler Matzek, is and was last season the best (full season) left-handed starting pitching prospect in the system.

Reliever Michael Marbry has a 0.69 ERA in 13 innings with only four hits allowed.

Reliever Coty Woods has thrown nine shutout innings in relief to start the season but has also allowed nine hits so you have to wonder if he can continue his stingy ways.

Relief pitcher Joey Williamson has the same concerns. While his ERA is 0.96, he has given up 10 hits, whole walking four, in 9 and 1/3 innings.

High-A Modesto

Christian Bergman recorded a 2.59 ERA in 2011 at Tri-City and is pitching well again, with a 2.49 ERA after 25 1/3 innings. He has yet to give up a home run and has only been nicked for 17 hits.

Tyler Matzek is the great talent who can't put it together. His 3.28 ERA is respectable and his nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings shows quality stuff but his nearly six walks per nine frames is his (unacceptable and limiting) career pattern.

Low-A Asheville

Reliever Kenny Roberts is sporting a 2.45 ERA in 11 innings with no walks and no home runs allowed.

Rockies Hitting Prospects Progress Report

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 17:09:00 +0000

The Rockies don't have any one hitting prospect demanding attention now but they do have players producing and developing. Today I look at those who have played well through April 24th.

I've highlighted any Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report top-10 hitting prospect entering 2012 in blue.

AAA Colorado Springs

First baseman Matt McBride, part of the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, is hitting a robust .389 and has 19 RBI in 20 games. What he isn't showing is home-run power, with but two on the season. The 26-year old has to incorporate that power into his other skills.

Second baseman D.J. LeMahieu, a trade piece in the Ian Stewart deal, is hitting .333 but he too has little home-run power, having but one on the season. LeMahieu was known as the hitter for average in the Cubs' chain. In 2011 at Double-A, he raked to the tune of .358 in 50 games.

Charlie Blackmon has not done much yet, hitting at .238 in 11 games.

AA Tulsa

Third baseman Nolan Arenado is hitting .343 but slumping of late. He has eight doubles but only one home run. His plate defense is stellar as usual with 11 walks and eight strikeouts.

Shortstop Josh Rutledge is coming on and his average is now up to .289 with six doubles, three homers and nine RBI. He is struggling with strikeouts again, having 14. He has walked but five times.

Outfielder Kent Matthes is lost, hitting .207. He is a much better prospect than he's showing.

High-A Asheville

Outfielder Corey Dickerson looks improved over last season, when he excelled in many areas for Low-A Asheville. Dickerson is hitting .351 with 10 doubles, a triple, two homers and 13 RBI. He has only walked four times but he's only struck out nine times. The home runs will come as Dickerson has shown in the past he can hit for power.

Low-A Asheville

First baseman Harold Riggins is showing promise, hitting .351. He has seven doubles and three homers and has driven in 16 runs. A red flag is 19 strikeouts and only seven walks.

Catcher Will Swanner continues to be interesting. He is hitting for high average - .333 - but I just get the feeling he's not going to be that sort of hitter. He has only two walks and has struck out 11 times.

Third baseman Sam Mende is also struggling with plate defense, with 16 strikeouts and only three walks, negating his potential and power, both of which are big. Mende though, is still hitting .302.

Shortstop Trevor Story, less than a year removed from high school has his average at .309 and looks even more exciting when you see he has almost as many walks (7) as he does K's (11).

Rockies 2012 pitching prospects for Double-A Tulsa

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 13:31:00 +0000

The Rockies' are developing players at a productive-enough rate that their affiliates are restocking each season as talent graduates to the next level. In 2011, for example, Juan Nicasio moved from Double-A Tulsa to the Rockies and in 2012 Edwar Cabrera replaces him as a serious MLB prospect.

Today I look at the Rockies' better and best pitching prospects starting the season at Tulsa. I see 6 talented players, one who projects as a Major League Baseball starter and 5 more who could become big-league relievers.

Pitchers

Edwar Cabrera (24), LHP

Rockies' prospect Edwar Cabrera (courtesy of Tulsa Drillers)

The slight (6-foot, 170 pounds) Dominican struck out 217 (leading the minors) while walking just 41 in A-ball last season but gave up 157 hits in 167 innings, also allowing 18 homers. His punchouts would infer Cabrera has a big fastball. He doesn't. It's high 80s to low 90s. It's his ability to throw strikes and trump batters with his plus-changeup that makes him so good.

Cabrera has to miss more bats still, as evidenced by the number of hits he allows and that might include learning how to get batters to chase "waste" pitches out of the zone. Cabrera is also prone to giving up the "big fly."

He will certainly be challenged in Triple-A if he passes his test at Double-A and then in the majors but I see him reaching Coors as a starter, with the ceiling of a no. 4 and likely sticking in the majors as no worse than a no. 5. Cabrera pitches smart so it's easy to see him making adjustments to survive and last.

Joe Gardner (24), RHP

Joe Gardner (photo courtesy of Tulsa Drillers)

Part of the Ubaldo Jimenez trade last summer, Gardner posted a 2.48 ERA in 36 and 1/3 innings, allowing just one home run, recording a 4.86/1 G/F rate, while walking only 8 batters.

Some scouts and prospects-reporting media see him as a back-end-of-the-rotation starter. I much prefer him as a middle-and-long reliever, with an ability to produce more ground balls than fly balls.

With a strong start in 2012, it would not surprise me to see Gardner called up by the Rockies in the later parts of the season. At worst, if healthy, I forecast a 2013 call-up.

Coty Woods (24), RHP

Coty Shea Leonard Woods took a big step forward last summer as a prospect while pitching for High-A Modesto, striking out over 10 batters per nine innings in relief and allowing just 4 home runs in 78 innings.

His ERA - 2.19 after a late-season fall-off of excellence.

Woods is older and needs to show bright and quickly in 2012 but if he does he becomes another bullpen possibility for the Rockies or a quality secondary trade chip.

Kurt Yacko (24), RHP

Yacko was going to be listed as pitching at Tulsa but a poor start in 2012 (four runs in 2 and 1/3 innings in relief) got him demoted recently to Modesto, where he pitched in 2011.

He was very good there, finishing the season with a 1.86 ERA and a 5/1 K/BB rate.He did allow 73 hits in 72 and 2/3 innings so he was hittable but only one of those hits was a home run. Yacko is a pitch-to-contact reliever and batters "contact/connect" too often but there is talent here. Yacko is going to have to get clever to find a way to fool hitters more to advance.

Michael Marbry (27), RHP

Marbry is not going to be highly attractive to most scouts because he's 27 and just entering Double-A but his recent resume is hard to ignore. At High-A Modesto in 2011, Marbry posted a 2.92 ERA in 50 games with 16 saves, with more than a 3/1 K/BB rate.

He might be a long shot to reach the majors due to age and lack of high-quality stuff but if he can come close to duplicating what he accomplished at Modesto, the Rockies or other teams will have to at least pay attention to him as a pitcher of interest.

Joey Williamson (26), RHP

An awful 2011 with a 7.12 ERA in 9 games at Triple-A Colorado Springs but Williamson is off to a hot start at Double-A Tulsa in 2012 and also has struck out, in his career over 9 batters per nine innings while posting a 2/1 K/BB rate.

Williamson has little margin for error at his age and after his failing at Triple-A appears to be an afterthought but he's always competed well and has talent. With a big first half for the Drillers, Williamson could get another shot at Triple-A this season and maybe earn a late-season call-up or be included as a trade "extra."

Rockies 2012 Hitting Prospects for Double-A Tulsa

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 02:27:00 +0000

Nolan Arenado top Rockies' hitting prospect at Double-A

Nolan Arenado, Colorado's golden talent leads the Rockies top hitting prospects starting the 2012 season at Double-A Tulsa. While Arenado is thought of as one of the top batters in the minors he's not alone amongst quality prospects for the Drillers.

There's a fellow infielder that is highly undervalued in prospect circles, and two older batters who have shown outstanding production but whom com with warning labels.

Today we look at four positional players and soon we will examine the top pitching prospects at Tulsa.

Hitters

Nolan Arenado (21), 3B

A premium talent. Arenado has got his body into better shape, worked hard to become a better third baseman and has impressed as a sterling plate defender and highly productive hitter.

The 2009 second-round draft pick excelled at High-A Modesto in 2011, hitting .298 with 32 doubles and 20 homers while driving in a minors'-best 122 runs. He only struck out 53 times on the season while walking 47.

Could he draw more walks, hit for a much higher average and show more power? Sure.

Is he a future 30-to-40 home run bat? Not likely.

Can he be a solid regular and possibly a borderline All Star? Definitely.

Many experts believe and most fans hope he can be in Denver sometime in 2012. That's certainly reasonable to think. If he's not, then 2013 seems at this time to be a lock for his arrival.

Josh Rutledge (23), SS

A third-round pick out of the University of Alabama in the 2010 draft, Rutledge scorched California League pitching in the second half of the 2011 season, hitting over .400. he finished the campaign at .348 with 33 doubles, 9 triples and 9 homers. He drove in 71 runs and added 16 steals.

For a middle infielder those are attractive numbers.

Rutledge doesn't walk much and does strike out more than you wish so those are numbers to watch closely in Double-A this season. He needs to stay aggressive but learn to protect the plate better with two strikes.

Most scouts and prospect media do not see Rutledge as highly as I do. He can be, in my estimation a starting MLB second baseman who can hold his own and maybe be above-average offensively. He's the type of player on a good team that can be a key component to winning.

Kent Matthes (25), OF

A fourth-round pick in the 2009 draft, also out of the University of Alabama, Matthes tore up High-A pitching in the California League last season, hitting .334 with 39 doubles and 23 homers while driving in 95 runs. He did all that in 93 games. Injury prevented him from finishing the season. If Matthes isn't hurt, he easily drives in over 100 runs and likely hits somewhere between 45-50 doubles.

He's an older prospect, he walked but 22 times and struck out 80 and those are surely warts in the eyes of talent evaluators. He must prove that 2011 was not just Matthes being old for his league and hitting in that league that is known for offense.

Improve his ability to protect the plate, draw some walks commensurate to his power ability and produce at a high level again and Matthes stock will be high enough that he will be considered a possible MLB starter one day. Put up an average showing and he will surely be looked at as a backup or fringe MLB player.

Mike Zuanich (25), 1B

Very interesting story with Zuanich. He's hardly recognized, he's old for his league and is repeating Double-A. Yet his resume can't be ignored.

He's 6-foot-4, 225 pounds and from 2009-11, in the lower rungs of the minors, Zuanich hit .351 in 640 at-bats with 56 doubles and 32 homers while totaling 135 RBI. Sterling numbers in 183 games.

On the flip side, he's never played in more than 59 games in a season and at Tulsa in 2011, he hit but .261 in 30 games. He's walked only 86 times and struck out 162.

There is hitting talent here but the annual sample size is small and Zuanich will turn 26 this summer. If he doesn't overwhelm Texas League pitching now and for a full season he will likely end up in another organization or stay in Colorado as a long shot to reach or contribute at the MLB level.

Prospect Flashback for Michael Cuddyer

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 12:34:00 +0000

Michael Cuddyer was a strong prospect

Michael Cuddyer was the big offensive import for the 2012 season for the Rockies and he's off to a good start for the club through mid-April. Cuddyer has had a solid major-league career but what did he look like as a prospect? Today's Prospect Flashback takes a look at the Rockies' right-fielder when he was in the Minnesota Twins' farm system.

Cuddyer was the ninth overall pick in the 1997 June MLB Amateur Draft. His debut season was in 1998 at Low-A ball where he burst on to the scene in an impressive fashion, hitting a respectable .276 but with 37 doubles, 7 triples and 12 home runs while driving in 81 runs. He also swiped 16 bases.

He struck out 107 times but walked 61 showing that while he was aggressive and there was some swing-and-miss to his game he could be patient and draw a walk when he wasn't smacking the ball around the park. Cuddyer appeared to be a high-quality prospect, maybe even a future star.

At age 20, Cuddyer was at High-A and raised his average to .298 while hitting 24 doubles and 16 homers. He drove in 82 runs and stole 14 bases. He struck out 91 times but walked an impressive 76.

You could see his improvement as a hitter even though he hit far fewer doubles. You could have expected Cuddyer to really step forward the following season. He looked the part of rock-solid prospect, a future MLB regular, hitting as possibly a no. 3 or 6 hitter in a lineup.

In 2001, he moved up to Double-A and played like an elite player, hitting .301 with 36 doubles, 30 homers and 87 RBI. He struck out his share of times - 106 but drew 75 walks. At this point, Cuddyer had to be considered a possible future All Star.

The next season, Cuddyer was at Triple-A, where he hit .309 with 16 doubles, 9 triples and 20 homers in 86 games, driving in 53 games. He walked less (36) but was ready for the major leagues.

In 11 seasons at Minnesota, he averaged .272 with 35 doubles, 20 homers and 83 RBI. He walked an average of 58 times and struck out 114.

Cuddyer didn't reach the stardom (only one All-Star game) his Double-A numbers might indicate he would but he did develop into a quality, reliable player.

So looking at Cuddyer's overall minor's resume and his talent he would have projected here as a quality starter, possibly a .280 - .290 hitter with 35-40 doubles annually on average with 20-25 homers and 85-95 RBI.

He didn't quite produce those numbers but he wasn't far below them either.

Rockies Hitting Prospects progress report

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 14:28:00 +0000

Yesterday we looked at the Rockies Pitching Prospects progress report. Today we look at the hitters. Far more are looking impressive early in the season than not, and the franchise certainly has some players that are legitimate MLB players-in-the-making. There is both quality and quantity and with that quantity there is margin for error for the Rockies in finding productive and cheaper players.

AAA Colorado Springs

Two outfielders are off to rough starts as Tim Wheeler, a star a season ago at Double-A Tulsa, hit but .200 in eight games for the Sky Sox, with 10 strikeouts, before getting shelved with an injury and Charlie Blackmon, who played with the Rockies in 2011, has hit only .167 in 18 at-bats.

AA Tulsa

The Rockies top hitting prospect, third baseman Nolan Arenado is off to a strong start with the Drillers, hitting at a .364 clip with 6 doubles, a home run and 9 RBI in 12 games. He has struck out seven times and walked five, continuing his resume of strong plate defense

Shortstop Josh Rutledge, a player Colorado Rockies Prospects Report maintains, despite other media outlets indifference towards him, is going to play in the majors (as a second baseman likely) and start, is now hitting .286 with 4 doubles, 3 HRs and 8 RBI. He is striking out twice as much as he walks but he is, as he was in 2011, highly productive

Outfielder Kent Matthes, an offensive force last season at Modesto is struggling a little, hitting .243 with 4 doubles, a triple, two homers and 5 RBI.

High-A Modesto

Outfielder Corey Dickerson is starting strong with a .407 average, 5 doubles, a triple, a homer and 7 RBI.

Low-A Asheville

First baseman Harold Riggins is hitting a team-best .395 with 7 doubles, a homer and 11 RBI. He has struck out 12 times in 11 games but has been highly productive and also drawn six walks.

Third baseman Sam Mende is slugging .622. As he did last season after signing with the Rockies, Mende is showing excellent power potential. He's also hitting .311. His big red flag is plate defense. He's struck out 14 times in 12 games and drawn only two walks. Correct that flaw and Mende will fly through the system with his bat.

Shortstop Trevor Story is at .300 with 2 doubles, 3 home runs and 7 RBI. He's walked 6 times while striking out 10 so he's defending the plate well. Story appears to be better than his pre-draft (2011) hype as a hitter.

Catcher Will Swanner is hitting .300 with a pair of homers (hit in one game) and 9 RBI but has struck out 9 times while walking once, which is his M.O.

Rockies prospect Cabrera still starring

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 07:06:00 +0000

Edwar Cabrera continues to be a prospect afterthought by many who cover the game of baseball's top young talent. Colorado Rockies Prospects Report, however, insists Cabrera is an undervalued and promising prospect who will end up sticking in the major leagues. Tuesday night was yet another example why.

Cabrera threw eight perfect innings at Double-A Tulsa before surrendering a hit.

Reliever Coty Woods then closed out the game by retiring the next three hitters.

Cabrera is not a big name when it comes to prospects because today it seems it's all about velocity. Cabrera might lack the mid-90's fastball but he does know how to pitch, how to get outs, how to work a game. That approach has worked for Jamie Moyer (yes, an outlier) for decades.

The book here on Cabrera is that he will be a solid rotation piece as a no. 4 or 5 starter. The Rockies have a good one developing and yet he is not talked about much.

Rockies Pitching Prospects progress report

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 13:46:00 +0000

AAA Colorado Springs

Christian Friedrich looks like a changed man. From two sub-par seasons at Double-A Tulsa to a quality beginning with the Sky Sox.

Friedrich has made three starts, posted a 2.33 ERA, allowed no home runs allowed, possesses a 6/1 strikeout-to-walks ratio and has a 0.78 WHIP. He's keeping batters off base, forcing ground balls and looking dominant, something he hasn't been since 2009 at High-A Modesto.

AA Tulsa

Edwar Cabrera has fashioned a 2.25 ERA over two starts with an impressive 0.83 WHIP and a 4/1 strikeout -to-walks rate. However, for those positive markers he is struggling in an area I've discussed before - he is likely throwing too many strikes or not commanding those strikes as he has allowed a home run on average every three innings, a red flag for higher levels of competition.

Joe Gardner isn't missing enough bats (11 hits in 9 innings) but does have an ERA of 3.00.

Joey Williamson, now 26, has allowed no runs in six innings of relief, striking out nine batters, giving up just three hits. He's a long shot to make the Rockies but if he's going to keep pitching like this, then anything is possible.

Reliever Coty Woods, one of the better relief prospects in the system hasn't allowed a run in five innings but there are concerns arising as he's allowed seven hits and struck out just one batter.

High-A Modesto

Tyler Matzek has a sterling 1.72 ERA through three starts. In typical Matzek style he is keeping the ball in the yard (only 1 HR allowed), striking out many (19 in 15 and 2/3 innings) and unfortunately, walking too many (4.60 per nine innings).

Low-A Asheville

Vianney Mayo has an ERA of 4.00 after three starts but he's showing potential with 18 K's in 18 innings and fewer hits than innings pitched.The 22-year old Venezuelan is a low-level prospect who is looking improved.

Reliever Kenny Roberts has a 1.50 ERA in six innings, striking out seven and not allowing any base on balls. He's one of the Colorado Rockies' Prospects Reports better relief prospects in the organization.

Dickerson leads Rockies' hitting prospects at Modesto

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 13:44:00 +0000

High-A Modesto produced and showcased some high-quality hitting prospects in 2010 for the Colorado Rockies and have quality again in 2012.

Third baseman Nolan Arenado, the Colorado Rockies' Prospects Report hitter of the year, excelled at Modesto last season. He was joined by outfielder Kent Matthes and middle infielder Josh Rutledge.

Those three have graduated to Double-A Tulsa but the Nuts have talented and intriguing bats again, including a recent first-round pick, two of the better catchers in the system now that Wilin Rosario is with the big league club and a player I believe could soon be much more valued.

Corey Dickerson (22), OF

Rockies hitting prospect Corey Dickerson

Simply put, Dickerson is not as appreciated as he should be, could be and likely will be in three years.

You won't have to listen long or closely to hear all the negatives - he was an awful hitter last season away from Low-A Asheville and his approach is going to fail him.

True, Dickerson was embarrassingly bad on the road last season, hitting under .200 with minimal power but look at his whole body of work, both in 2011 and since he signed in 2010. If one does that, they can see many positives and it becomes clear Dickerson can hit, is a hitter and will likely keep hitting.

He finished at .344 at Casper (Rookie League) after signing and then .284 at Asheville last season. In those 184 games and 695 at-bats Dickerson has put up some big numbers - .317 average, 49 doubles, 14 triples and 45 homers while driving in 148 runs. His slugging percentage has been well over .600.

So pick at warts if one must, Dickerson, as I like to write, has just hit and hit since being signed.

The one negative I see is he must become more selective and disciplined with two strikes but that's a challenge that most young players have to learn to master.

I expect him to play well (how well is unknown) at High-A Modesto and earn an invite to Double-A Tulsa, maybe even sometime late this season.

Kyle Parker (22), OF

The Rockies first-round pick in the 201 draft.

Parker's debut season was met with warm applause by prospect-reporting media but the truth is he played well as a rookie at Asheville, displaying MLB potential. He hit .285 with 23 doubles, 21 homers and drove in 95 runs. Those are impressive first-year numbers.

Now for the negatives. In 117 games, he walked just 48 times. That's poor for a slugger who should be feared and walked often but it also shows Parker's aggressiveness. What is not debatable is Parker has a poor approach to hitting with two strikes as his disappointing 133 strikeouts attest. Cut that number by 20 or 30 percent, walk 20 percent more and Parker's prospect status leaps.

He will take some time to develop, refine and advance but the talent is not lacking. Personally, I like him best as either a leftfielder or training him to be a first baseman. His bat could play well at either position.

Parker got hurt just as the season was getting underway. That will slow his progress. Will he get healthy, stay healthy, improve his flaws and make an impact in 2012? Time will tell.

Brett Tanos (23), 3B

A solid season and a player who, with the bat, is undervalued.

He hit .285 at Low-A, with 28 doubles and 10 homers, along with 71 walks and 85 strikeouts.

For a third baseman, those numbers are respectable but not eye grabbing. Convert him to second base, teach him the position defensively, and his offense looks enticing.

At 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, his body type is better suited for the middle of the infield anyway.

Dustin Garneau (24), C

Garneau is an interesting case study. He's old for his league, doesn't hit for much average (.255) and yet there is a lot to like.

At Asheville last season, Garneau held his own at the plate with almost as many walks (58) as strikeouts (70). He hit 29 doubles, 4 triples and 17 homers, while driving in 67. Those are high-quality offensive numbers for a catcher.

Garneau has to work his way to Double-A Tulsa at some point in 2012 and succeed there as well to still be considered a desirable prospect. If he struggles this season, he likely gets considered an afterthought.

For now, he is worthy of further follow. If he can maintain his strike zone defense and power while raising his average slightly, his prospect status will at least remain solid and could go up significantly. He has little margin for error at this age but he is very interesting.

Rafael Ortega (20), OF

Smallish frame (5-foot-11, 160 pounds) but he has shown ability.

At Low-A last season, he hit .294 with 26 doubles, 8 triples, 9 homers and 66 RBI in 113 games. He also stole 32 bases.

Problems - he struck out three more times than he walked and was caught 19 times while attempting to steal so it's easy to see Ortega is undisciplined, if not sloppy at his craft. Those areas can be corrected with baseball IQ and sustained effort.

Ortega probably projects best as a MLB backup at this time.

Christhian Adames (20), SS

Scouts and prospect-reporting media like him. I'm intrigued but not yet riveted with interest.

Adames is considered a plus defensive infielder within the Rockies' system. His bat isn't bad either, especially for his age. He hit .273 at Low-A, with 17 doubles, 8 homers and 44 RBI. He held his own with plate discipline too.

So, he's raw, talented and in need of much more development before I can feel strongly about him. He does show some punch for a middle infielder so if he adds weight and strength to his 6-foot, 160-pound frame, he could do even more with the bat. For now, he should focus on making more contact.

Bryce Massanari (25), C

A 30th-round draft choice, he has been a surprise. He hit .328 with 19 doubles and 14 homers in 69 games last season at Asheville. That's big production, especially from a catcher, even in a hitters' park. He struck out 64 times but walked 35 so his plate discipline was reasonable.

The problem here is age - Massanari is still in A-ball and he turns 26 in late April. Unless he breaks out with a stunning season, he's likely to be organizational filler. The upside is he can still contend to be a MLB backup, if not in Denver one day then somewhere. This season is critical to Massanari's marketing.

Jared Clark (25), 1B

Played in only 61 games at Modesto last year and underwhelmed, hitting .229. That fact and his age are serious negatives but in 2010 he hit .299 with 24 homers and 82 RBI. The strikeouts were high (113) but so were the walks (76).

Bottom line - he showed ability to be a run producer at first base. The question is he can he stay healthy and put another quality season in the books to get attention, if not from the Rockies, but another organization.

Prospect Flashback for Ian Stewart

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 18:05:00 +0000


Former Rockie Ian Stewart

Ian Stewart was once thought to be the next slugging third baseman for the Rockies, a Vinny Castilla-type producer at the hot corner. His career showed flashes but eventually stalled out, promise unfulfilled. Should that have been such a surprise? Today's Prospect Flashback looks at indicators that Stewart was more likely to fall short of prominence than achieve it.

Stewart was the tenth overall pick in the 2003 amateur draft, a prep selection out of a California High School. He hit 25 homers for the Rockies in 2009 but eventually disappointed to the degree that the Rockies gave up on him and traded him to the Chicago Cubs after the 2011 season. Was Stewart overvalued as a prospect or did he just fail to deliver on his potential?

When Stewart was sent to the Cubs, he left the organization with a .236 career average in 435 games. He totaled 61 doubles, 54 homers and 188 RBI with the club.

He also struck out 399 times while walking just 147. Remember those numbers.

The power Stewart showed in 2009 ended up not being a preview of great production. It proved to be an aberration.

He did struggle with injuries in 2011 but he was so awful in the 48 games he played, hitting a lowly .156 that he bought his own ticket out of town, figuratively speaking.

So did any markers in Stewart's minor league career predict this failure?

His debut at Casper (rookie league) was sensational - .317 average, 14 doubles, 5 triples, 10 homers and 43 RBI in only 57 games. It appeared the Rockies had a potential superstar hitter on their hands.

The following season, in 2004, at Asheville, Stewart again showed the ability to hit for high average, stroking the ball at a .319 clip. He hit 30 doubles, 9 triples and 31 homers, driving in 101 runs and even stealing 19 bases. Again, he looked the part of future multiple-time All Star in the making. He was an aggressive and free swinger though, going down on strikeouts 112 times and only walking 66 but he was so productive that those had to be considered minor flaws at the time.

In 2005, at High-A Modesto, Stewart finally was being challenged by professional ball as his average plummeted to .274. With 32 doubles, 7 triples and 17 homers (with 86 RBI), he still looked like a quality prospect but with the locale being A-ball and Stewart's average and power down significantly, that should have been at least a mild warning sign of trouble.

The next season, Stewart was only 21 when he hit Double-A Tulsa, with whom he hit .268, with 41 doubles, 7 triples and 10 homers, driving in 71 runs. This season was yet another regression of batting average and while the doubles and triples power was outstanding, while Stewart was still productive, it had to be clear he was a flawed prospect now, one that would struggle to hit for average at the MLB level, not the potential elite talent he appeared to be after his seasons at Casper and Asheville.

In 2007, Stewart was knocking on the door of the majors when he arrived at Triple-A Colorado Springs. He played 112 games and hit .280, which is a respectable average in the majors but a puny one for the Pacific Coast League. This was a big distress signal that Stewart would struggle to consistently hit MLB pitching. He did hit 15 doubles, 6 triples and 19 homers so his power potential was still intriguing.

Looking back, the book on Stewart would have been this - has solid power that could play up more if he can develop at improve contact. Project him to hit 15-20 homers, with some seasons of 25 or more possible with further development. Will be most productive being a doubles hitter, where he could hit 35, 40 or more annually as a ceiling and 20-25 as a floor. Probable .240 - .250 hitter. Might start a few seasons but will club will likely look to replace him fairly quickly.

Stewart never did find consistency, never became the player he was capable of becoming in Colorado. The talent was there but not the refinement. As insulting as this might be, he quit developing.

At one time, he looked like he could become special.

Today he is a forgettable footnote in club history and appears to be a future journeyman.

Sickels talks player analysis with comparisons

noreply@blogger.com (Michael) — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 01:25:00 +0000

John Sickels of Minor League Ball, trusted talent evaluator, took some time to look at the concept of examining prospects and making comparisons.

CRPR: The player comparison. How often do you "see" or think of a comparison when viewing/assessing talent and how often do you share that comparison with your followers and customers?

Sickels: Well, first of all there are a couple of different types of comparisons.

Scouts usually talk in terms of physical comparisons, body types, etc. You can also make statistical comparisons: prospect X should put up major league numbers similar to big-leaguer Y.

Sometimes the two kinds of comps line up perfectly, but sometimes they don't.

To be honest I don't really think in terms of direct comparisons that often. I often find them more misleading than illuminating and I think people put too much weight in them. If something really stands out to me, I'll usually mention it, but in general I don't like them very much.

CRPR: What warnings should we take into consideration when listening to/reading or hearing player comparisons?

Sickels: Well, keep in mind the two types I mentioned above. Also there is some stereotyping that goes into it.

A few years ago it seemed like every African American right-handed-hitting outfielder with speed and power was automatically compared to Mike Cameron.

A few years before that every thin Latin American pitcher with a live arm was compared to Pedro Martinez. Sometimes a comp will come to mind right away, but if one doesn't, I don't spend a huge amount of time trying to come up with an exact name and I'll just talk about what I think the player will do.

CRPR: In making a quality comparison what needs to go into the decision-making process?

Sickels: Well, the scout or analyst or writer or whoever is making the comparison needs to be clear, in his own head let alone in whatever he tells others, if he's talking about a physical or a performance comp.

CRPR: How accurate can comparisons be?

Sickels: Like I said earlier, I think they are often misleading. I would much rather say something like "this guy should hit somewhere between .240 and .260 with 20-25 homers, double-digit steals, and above-average defense in center field". Maybe "Mike Cameron" is a shorthand for that, but I'd still rather spell that out.

CRPR: Want to share a mention of your latest book and how to purchase it?

The 2012 Baseball Prospect Book is available at johnsickels.net. It has reports on over 1,100 minor league players, written in an entertaining and, i hope, informative way.