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It Turns Out That Australia's Much-Vaunted NGB $50 Note Has A Spelling Mistake On It

andrew — Thu, 09 May 2019 04:18:40 +0800

I got a phone call at 630am on the morning of May 9th 2019 - as someone that was the President of a sporting club I’ve long passed the point of being surprised by a random phone call at an odd hour of the day or night, but this was the first in a while.

On the other end of the line was the producer of a morning breakfast show with one of Perth’s radio stations (6PR), who’d seen something online about a spelling mistake on the Next Generation Banknote, issued into circulation in September 2018.

It turns out that someone in Victoria had been examining the micro print on the front of the note, and noticed that the word “responsibility” had been spelt incorrectly no less than three times!

I didn’t believe that such an error could happen when I was first told of it, but sure enough when a photograph of an enlarged section of the note arrived via text message moments later, it was hard to argue otherwise.

I found it hard to conceive that such a minor yet fundamental error could have passed through the multiple stages of checks that we’d expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia, so reserved my judgement until I had the opportunity to look into it further.

My first thought was that the original text that was reproduced in micro print may have contained the spelling errors, and although incorrect, it was reproduced faithfully for reasons of historical accuracy.

A quick check of the Hansard of the WA Parliament put paid to that theory pretty quickly - Dame Edith Cowan’s maiden speech was recorded and reproduced there in full, and no such spelling errors can be found!

The idea that Hansard itself was incorrect simply isn’t possible, as it was the written record of a verbal speech, and not a transcript of another written document.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has since advised several media outlets that they were made aware of the error in December 2018 (just three months after the notes entered circulation), which to me is confirmation that the mis-spelling is the result of human error rather than any preference for historical accuracy.

So how can an error like this happen? I think a statement from the RBA’s press release provides the perfect explanation - "We have reviewed our processes to remove the likelihood of such an error occurring in the future”.

Although there was one designer responsible for the micro-engraving, it’d be quite harsh to lay any blame at his feet alone. It’s quite a unique skill set to be able to design a currency note, it perhaps isn’t fair that creative soul was also expected to vet their own work to ensure it was perfect in every way - the design and vetting processes are quite separate and distinct.

Complex projects such as this involve hundreds, if not thousands of people, and the micro-print designs would have passed by many hands and before many pairs of eye balls before they entered circulation. That statement points to the process being the source of the problem, and that it’s not simply the fault of the people involved that the spelling error saw the light of day.

One of the interesting questions to come out of this story is "Just who has the time, tools and inclination to examine the banknotes they have in their wallet so closely that they can discover an error such as this?” I’m a professional numismatist and study banknotes for a living, and I’ve never been compelled to get a magnifying glass out and study the micro print on any of the notes in my wallet!

For the sake of putting everyone’s concerns at ease, we’ve scanned the micro-print sections of the other NGB notes that have been issued so far - there aren’t any other spelling errors on them as far as we can see!

Will These Notes be Valuable in the Future?

We need to keep in mind that no less than 46 million of these notes have been issued into circulation so far, and that many (many!) more notes may have been printed and are yet to be introduced into circulation. 46 million is near enough to the number required for every man, woman and child to have 2 each.

When we also keep in mind that there are no less than 710 million $50 notes in circulation, we can see that in and of themselves, they sure ain’t going to be rare any time soon!

Is It Worth Setting Any of These Notes Aside?

This question is best answered by reminding ourselves that we collect things for many reasons, and not just in the hope that something will be worth squillions in future.

Which Ones Should I Set Aside?

As there are no less than 46 million of these notes in circulation so far, I’d be fairly selective about any $50 note that I set aside.

I’d check any potential nest egg to make sure that it’s in absolutely spanking mint condition (that is, without any flicks, folds or even tiny dents in it!), and then I’d really only be inclined to keep either or both of a first prefix or a last prefix.

The first prefix for the NGB $50 note is AA18, while the last prefix for the NGB $50 note is IB 18.

One of those in 20 years time, coupled with a newspaper report on the whole escapade will be a great thing to look back on.

Are There Any Other Notes That Have Spelling Errors On Them?

We’ve scanned the micro text sections of the $5 and $10 NGB notes - can you see any spelling mistakes there?

Noble Numismatics Auction 120 and 2019 Brisbane Money Expo Reviews

andrew — Wed, 01 May 2019 04:57:13 +0800

Noble Numismatics Sale 120 was yet another major affair from them - total turnover was declared as being $3.8 million across 3 days. The Brisbane Money Expo wasn’t quite as busy (!), however was a worthwhile in and of itself.

Noble Numismatics Sale 120

Notable in the early Tuesday morning sessions for this sale was a group of error coins that were seen in bulk, which is quite remarkable for any error coin struck by the Royal Australian Mint. It seems that there was more than a few of the 1988 2 cent coins struck on 1 cent planchets, as this sale contained no less than 20 of them across 3 different lots. When multiple examples of any item are listed for sale in any auction (coin or one, gold; copper or silver) there is always some anticipation to see just how much each lot makes - a solid bidding strategy can really pay dividends in a situation like this.

In this case, the bidder that was prepared to chance their hand on the first of the three lots got the cheapest example. They went on to also claim the second lot that contained 18 more examples of the same coin, while the third of the three different lots made the highest price to a different bidder. It’ll be interesting to see if the batch of 18 coins is broken up and sold individually, or if they remain intact as a group.

An “Operation Fastback” wallet was innocuously listed on the next page of the catalogue, and made a hammer price 4 times the estimate - that was more a function of the low estimate rather than incredibly strong demand however! The other lots of Australian gold and silver / copper coins all ticked over without much fanfare.

The New Zealand section contained some very attractive coins, and as these are seldom seen at auction, they were chased accordingly. This section of the market is remaining popular with those that collect in it - many hammer prices were reasonably close to the current catalogue values those coins have.

The proclamation coins that kicked off the evening session were keenly contested - demand was widespread and just as healthy for circulated examples as it was for coins in premium condition. The NSW Dumps that followed fared better than my expectations thought they would - 4 of the 9 coins sold, which is better than they’ve done in the past. There were 3 Type II Adelaide Pounds in the lots that followed, and each of those sold. One was incredibly cheap, the others were within their current range. I expect this can be put down to whether a coin looks like it will “grade” with PCGS or not - those coins that don’t meet that standard tend to be left alone.

The Australian gold coins that followed were the most interesting items in the entire sale for mine - there were several old collections that hadn’t been on the market for some time, and there were more than a few of those coins were scarce dates in superior quality - catnip for anyone with a passing interest in this series. Based on the level of competition and the prices realised, I’d say we’re seeing some real demand emerging in this area of the market, in both sovereigns and half sovereigns. The Type I and Type II Sydney Mint sovereigns sold according to the known market, however it then got interesting for the same era in the half sovereigns. A number of the coins could be traced back to “The India Hoard” of Australian gold coins (sold by Spink Australia in 1976), and were in superior quality. Collectors of this series really need to be on the ball when it comes to the price they’re prepared to pay at the moment - the published estimates can have no relationship at all to the known market the coins have, and the published price guides can contain figures that in no way represent where the market is at either.

This means that the keen student needs to either have done a good amount of research into prices realised over several decades (work that requires a decent library, as well as time and dedication), or more likely needs to throw caution to the wind and just pay what’s required to own a coin that they like the look of.

Some of the prices realised showed that either there are growing numbers of buyers who can “grade” to the PCGS standard and who know just how valuable some of these coins have proven to be in decades past. If a particular coin has a grade of good EF attributed to it in the catalogue and has an estimate of $5,000, yet is in fact likely to grade MS62 with PCGS and most recently sold (a decade or so ago) for $12,000, you can see the opportunity that exists for the buyer that has the market knowledge required to succeed. On the other hand, if a coin has a grade of Choice Uncirculated attributed to it in the catalogue and has an estimate of $15,000, yet is unlikely to “grade” with PCGS and thus is really only worth a fraction of that amount, then you can see the risk that exists for the buyer that is operating without grading or market knowledge. Both of the situations above may sound to be implausible, but I can assure you they can both happen several times in the same sale, with numerous coins valued at many thousands of dollars.

In the Shield sovereigns that followed, we saw some very strong prices paid for coins described as being in superior quality, many of which were in fact in superior quality. Melbourne Shields have been regarded as rare for many decades now, and some of the prices paid exceeded those achieved by comparable coins in any recent auction that I can recall. This is great for the market, as it shows that there are active buyers that are prepared to hunt coins out, and aren’t afraid to chase them when they find them. The Young Heads, Jubilees and Veiled Head sovereign that followed didn’t contain the same number of rarities, however they were keenly contested also. There were several “no grade” examples of key dates in the George V series offered up, they all made reasonable money given the circumstances.

The Young Head half sovereigns also contained some excellent coins mixed in with several other items that didn’t have original surfaces. I was surprised that a few of the latter coins made quite strong money, while some of the better coins did just as well. I felt the strongest price was paid for an 1897 Sydney half sovereign in attractive grade. It was graded as Choice Uncirculated by the auctioneer, and had attractive and original surfaces. This is a scarce, but not particularly rare date, yet made close to double the pre-sale estimate. This indicates to me there are a number of Registry Set collectors active in this series, which I expect will pan out across other dates and series over the coming months and years.

The Pre-Decimal Proof coins that followed weren’t great quality in the main, so there was nothing major new to be learned from that section of the sale. In the pre-decimal circulating coinage section, buyers were proving to be selective in the items they went after. Premium items were strong, I (and many others) believed the bargain of the evening was the specimen Melbourne Centenary florin that was offered. This coin was not only a rare and historic archival strike, it remained in immaculate condition to boot. It made half the price that a similarly-described coin sold for in the most recent Downie auction, yet was attributed correctly and was in exponentially better condition.

1930 pennies seem to have swung back into vogue, as the prices both coins in this sale made were higher than they might have made 12-18 months ago. The very next coin in the catalogue was a 1931 penny with both the Indian obverse and the Dropped 1 reverse, it had some surface issues on the obverse, yet sold comfortably for a hammer price of $3,200 - very strong indeed for a coin that just a few short years ago would have had only 2 men and a dog looking at it!

The British gold coins offered in this sale were keenly contested, as they seemingly always are. Demand came in from a range of local collectors and dealers, as well as from interested parties overseas. A rare and valuable item with a low pre-sale estimate can often the most-hidden bargain that everyone in the room knows about, as was the case with the more valuable British gold coins in this sale - they all made figures we’d expect them to make if offered in the UK. There were also some very nice British silver coins on offer, however they ran well away from the conservative pre-sale estimates to sell for sums they’d make in the UK.

This sale included a number of deceased estates that held collections we don’t see too often - foreign and world coins included. The world coin session had several runs of really attractive world coins, and those items made strong prices. Key items to mention are the 1793 Large Cent from the US - one that came from the UK via New Zealand as the provenance described. It made $88,245 nett against a pre-sale estimate of $40,000. The other key foreign coin in this sale was an 1874 Pond from South Africa in impeccable quality. It made $64,395 nett against a pre-sale estimate of $40,000.

Thursday evening held the Australian banknotes, and this sale was unusual in that there were 43 different lots of Pre-Federation notes, while there were 94 lots in the Pre-Decimal notes listed. That ratio is far, far different to most sales - I’d suggest the ratio has traditionally been closer to 1:10 rather than 1:2. Activity in the pre-federation notes was quite good - we really have picked up a range of new buyers in this area of the market since the last market cycle ended. The clearance rate was solid overall, prices were in line with what one might expect for a healthy market. Wholesale demand mops up most of the items that are in the lower end of their trading range, while competition from a few dealers and keen collectors pushed the rarer items well above the pre-sale estimates.

The pre-decimal notes were somewhat less exciting, as there were fewer truly desirable notes on offer. The superscribed notes offered all got away, as did the rare “No Mosaic” five pound note that was held over from the Caldwell auction a few sales ago.

The clearance rate for the specimen banknotes on offer in this sale was better than it has been in recent years, however it has to be said the prices realised weren’t great at all. This area of the market is doing it’s best to find a level right now, we’ll find out soon enough whether the current level is right, or whether we have some way to go yet.

Brisbane Money Expo Review

If a football game can be a tale of two halves, then a two day show can be the tale of two days…. Saturday at the Brisbane Money Expo was nigh bedlam - the queue was well out the door for the first few hours, and there were people 3 deep at our table for the same period of time. Things eased up as the day went along, and a good day’s trade was had. There’s no doubt at all that the RAM can bring in a lot of people through the door with their coin swap and mobile press.

The next day was not attended by the RAM, and the number of people through the door was a fraction of the day earlier as a result. We ended up buying a number of useful bits and pieces from the other dealers in the hall, however we didn’t have the frantic activity of the Saturday, that’s for sure. We look forward to the next show in Melbourne in August - no doubt we’ll need a few more layers of clothing ready...

2019 Numismatic Auction Roundup - Downie 330, IAG 89 and Noble 120

andrew — Sat, 30 Mar 2019 09:13:22 +0800

The numismatic year has been well and truly underway for the past month or so, as we have at least two significant numismatic auctions under our belt so far, with a third one not too far away at all.

Downie 330 - New Venue and Online Bidding

Downie 330 was the first sale of the year to take place - this one was held for the first time, at Downie’s premises in Mitcham. Having viewing, bidding and lot collection all in one location can certainly make life easier for bidders, and also saves on auction costs no doubt at all. In my experience, collectors are less interested in the experience of buying than they are in the outcome of the buying process, so if their surrounds while bidding in the most recent Downie sale weren’t as salubrious as they had been in previous sales, provided they walked away with the goods they were after, I don’t think they would have given the surrounds a second thought.

For those that couldn’t or wouldn’t travel to the “new” premises, they could easily bid live online via the new online bidding facility, introduced with this sale for the first time. This technology can be fraught with problems for the auctioneers - they can be slow, expensive and generally not as simple to use as everyone would like them to be. That didn’t seem to be the case with this sale however, the video and audio seemed to work well without posing any untoward delays.

Judging by the numbers, the activity in this sale was certainly in line with previous auctions held by Downie’s - the total turnover was just shy of a million dollars when buyer’s premium was taken into account, and the clearance rate was a very healthy 86%. An average lot value of around $300 indicates that there was a lot of affordable material on offer.

The early Australian decimal coin and note sessions held a small range of items that were subject to some competitive bidding. The error coins in the decimal coin session were keenly contested - the highest value item was a 10¢ struck on a 2¢ planchet. The decimal note section held a few specimen notes, both notes had been very lightly handled according to the lot descriptions, however despite that they both found new homes.

The next several thousand lots or so were made up of foreign coins and notes, ancient coins as well as a range of other interesting collectible material. There wasn’t much in the those areas to interest me I have to say, however the solid overall clearance rate shows that the vast majority of it got away.

The main Australian numismatic session started off with a decent run of convict love tokens. I’ve handled a few of these previously, however I know it to be a truly specialised field that can be a minefield for buyers that aren’t up to speed with who’s who in the zoo. The convict love tokens that bring the most money are those that can be unequivocally tied to convicts transported to Australian colonies, and if that documentation is missing or can’t be proven, then as interesting as a love token from the late 18th or early 19th century might be, it doesn’t have the compelling social history that causes a collector to part with serious dollars.

Just 2 of the 9 lots included in this sale got away, which leads me to believe (in the absence of any knowledge at all I might add), the vendor may have been someone knowledgable that was clearing house. If that wasn’t the case, there were some truly inexpensive tokens unsold!

The session then moved onto Australian colonial and gold coins. The single NSW 1813 Dump that was included was fairly “fully” estimated, and didn’t find a new home, however the same couldn’t be said of the 3 Adelaide Pounds that followed. I didn’t view the items but studied the images and prepared bids according to what I saw in them. The activity in the room and via the online bidding eclipsed my estimations, showing there remains strong collector demand for this historic coin across all grades. I thought each coin made higher than current retail values these coins have. This was a great result for the vendors, and no doubt the buyers were pleased with the items they picked up.

The remaining gold coins sold well also - I thought lot 2463 was a really interesting coin to consider. This was a 1921 Melbourne sovereign - truly one of the rarest of all Australia’s sovereigns. This particular coin commands tens of thousands of dollars in mint state, and is not a coin that is often seen in circulated quality. Most of the (very few) examples I’ve seen or handled have been mint state or very nearly so. This particular example was described by the auctioneer as having a “concentric” mark on the reverse, which indicated to them that the coin had been removed from a jewellery frame at some stage. Date collectors of sovereigns have very few opportunities to acquire this date - my auction records show that a coin described as “ex mount” was sold by Noble Numismatics in November 1982 for $5,500 nett. My mathematics isn’t great, however a $3,660 nett price in 2019 would have to be excellent value or a comparable coin, surely.

I expect the relative lack of demand for this coin can be explained by the over-reaching influence of the PCGS Registry Set, and the PCGS grading standard as a result. A coin such as this, with impaired surfaces, could not in any way be included in a PCGS slab, so was left well alone by the collectors and dealers most active in this area.

In the pre-decimal proof category, lot 2471 was described by the auctioneer as a specimen strike - that is an important and historic coin in that form - this example made around $20,000 nett as a result.

The proof 1937 crown got away at a very reasonable price, the 1930 penny offered up also cracked the $20,000 mark. Interestingly, the incredibly rare 1931 penny with the Dropped 1 reverse and the Indian obverse did not sell, despite being within cooee of what similar examples have sold for in recent times This coin was described as having “minor” corrosion, which would again explain why the collectors and dealers that are abiding by the PCGS grading standard would have left it well alone.

The remaining Commonwealth coins ticked over, without too many exceptional results within them. There weren’t too may pre-decimal notes on offer in this sale, and although they ticked over as well, there wasn’t anything remarkable within them.

All in all, this would have been a good result for Downie’s - good numbers at their head office, and the online bidding worked well without issue.

IAG Auction 89

Nobody could complain about the surrounds for the standard IAG auction - Broadbeach in March is not the toughest place in the world I’ve ever travelled to, that’s for sure. This sale opened with the world and proclamation coins - lot 3 set a truly competitive tone for the sale when it made a $5,100 hammer price against an estimate of $600. The coin concerned was a Yuan Shi Kai silver dollar with the general on one side, always extremely rare however the field can be well-littered by fakes of varying quality. This coin clearly caught the eye of several educated buyers, and made a price clearly in line with the value it has in other markets. The proclamation and colonial coins were competitive across the board - not all of the Brazilian gold coins sold, however that was more to do with the estimates they were at rather than the level of interest in them.

The Australian banknote section was featured by a decent number of pre-federation notes in specimen, proof and issued formats. Estimates showed that the notes were “on the market”, the prices realised show that the estimates were in line with recent market activity. It would have been a rare sale indeed that would have had more than 30 pre-federation notes in it with a high clearance rate, however that was the case this time around. Given the carnage that has taken place in this segment of the market in recent years, a lot of people will moved on from pre-federation notes to other areas that they feel more confident in. That has clearly left the field open to a small number of dedicated collectors and dealers that are quite happy with current price levels thank you very much. These notes have just as much history as they did when they were selling for much much more money, anyone with long-term confidence in them will be happy to buy well at these levels.

The pre-decimal notes were quite varied in their quality, rarity and value, the prices realised for this sale seemed to reflect that. A strong price was paid for a high-grade ten shilling note from 1933, which made $13,000 hammer. The pair of £20 notes featured at the back end of this session both sold, however in a remarkable turn of events they both went to separate buyers! While each note was in incredible quality, and was well worth buying individually, they had been unseen as a pair, so went their separate ways.

The clearance rate for the star replacement notes that followed was decent, however the prices realised weren’t strong it has to be said. This section of the market does seem to be hot and cold, we can only think that if there are active buyers at lower levels, they’ll compete for the rarer notes when they have to and prices will follow.

Even though there weren’t any true rarities in the Australian gold section, there was a decent number of attractive coin sprinkled throughout, both raw and PCGS-graded. The clearance rate for them was solid, showing it remains a healthy area of the market. Bids on the decimal notes that followed came from all points of the compass (bidders in the room and via the postal bid book), so there was competition at a level for most lots.

In the rarities section, it probably appeared to be harder work than it was. Half the ten lots sold and half were left alone - the headline items of the Holey Dollar and the Adelaide Pound (both incredible coins for eye appeal, history, rarity and quality) failed to find new homes, while some of the less expensive items did trade hands.

The next section of the Australian pre-decimal coins was both deep and wide - close to 150 lots, where each denomination and grade range was well-represented. This area of the market has had some wind taken out of its sails in recent months, so any level of activity was welcome. No record prices to report, but the market does have a pulse.

An attractive range of British Commonwealth notes in decent quality followed, however the estimates didn’t seem to be in line with what the broader market was prepared to allow for them, and they remained unsold.

All in all, IAG 89 was a solid sale - no records were set, however the market ticked over.

Noble Numismatics 220 - Yet Another Blockbuster

This particular sale has close to 4,500 lots, which is more lots than were included in the two previous sales if they were combined!

The front cover is devoted to one of South Africa’s classic gold coin rarities, an 1874 pond. This coin will no doubt attract attention from buyers with deep pockets from right around the world, of that I have no doubt. The early coin sessions have a nice array of decimal error and variety coins, nothing that hasn’t been seen in recent years, however the estimates put them in the market nonetheless.

This is followed by a decent quantity of the decimal NCLT coins, in gold, silver and standard metals. The modest range of pre-decimal coins that follows them has some decent coins in it, buyers keen on affordable pre-decimal coins with plenty of eye appeal should do well.

The early afternoon session includes another small batch of convict love tokens, these have slightly more information published on them than was seen in the Downie catalogue from a few weeks back, so we can only hope that draws in more buyers. The next section of broad appeal contains the Australian gold coins, and the images indicate there are some better items sprinkled through this session for keen students to pick up.

The New Zealand coin section contains some coins that are attributed as being in excellent quality, the bidding activity will confirm whether that is the case or not.

The evening session for the coins begins with a solid range of proclamation and colonial coins, I expect these will do well. The nine 1813 Dumps that follow on I’m not quite as confident in - buyers in recent sales have wanted real value before they’re prepared to step up, and I’m not sure these coins at the estimates indicated will match up on that front. The Australian gold coins that follow seem to include a few coins that offer real value at the estimates indicated. Some of the half sovereigns listed haven’t been seen in the grades they’re offered at in many, many years, so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare. I know the half sovereign market is very slowly starting to mature, so have little doubt there will be at least a few collectors reviewing these coins for potential purchases.

There is a large number of coins in that section of the sale that I expect will do well.

The Commonwealth coin section contains a specimen 1934/5 florin that I’m clear is in fact a specimen - given the Downie result a few weeks ago for a coin that didn’t have quite the same technical strengths that this coin appears to have, it should bring a strong price relative to the estimate.

The Commonwealth coin section also contains several old collections of coins, just how they fare under the additional criteria now posed by the PCGS grading standard remains to be seen.

The British silver coin section the next morning contains a large number of coins that should appeal to collectors both here and on the other side of the world, an attractive series of scarce and attractive early-dated Irish coins follows. I don’t recall the last time I saw this number of Irish coins here in this grade, the art deco designs they have really are superb.

The British gold coins that follow should be keenly contested as well, there are a number of scarcer coins included in it that we seldom see here.

The world silver and base metal coins is large as always, with lots of depth in several areas. There seems to be a decent number of European silver crowns from the 17th century - these are keenly sought by buyers in Europe, we’ll see how well they travel.

The world gold coins contains several deep sections of coins that are seldom seen here - the world coins take up an entire day of this sale - it’ll run from 9am to 9am, which gives you an idea of the quantity on offer!

The Australian note section that runs the next evening is deep with pre-federation notes, more issued notes than I’ve seen in quite some time (aside from the Caldwell Collection of course). The pre-decimal and decimal notes that follow on and finish out the sale also have some appealing items within them - this is a session I’ll be pleased to get my eyes across.

With such a huge number of lots on offer, I’m confident Noble Numismatics Sale 120 will be a bumper event.

Noble Numismatics Auction 119 Review - and Thats 2018 Done

andrew — Fri, 14 Dec 2018 12:59:28 +0800

The last major auction of 2019 was held in Sydney in late November - Noble Numismatics 119 wrapped the year up with $3.61 million in turnover. Here are the headline numbers for the sale:

Headline Figures
Turnover	$3,698,420
# Items Offered	5,075
# Items Sold	4,367
Clearance Rate	86.05%
Average Lot Value	$847
$10k+ Lots Sold	27

There was some good variety to the higher value lots - they weren’t restricted to just one category, which is pleasing to see:

Lot	Hammer	Nett	Item
1124	$60,000	$71,550	Type I Adelaide Pound EF
1202	$30,000	$35,775	Type 6 Kookaburra Penny
3374	$28,000	$33,390	1712 Indian Rupee Jahangirnagar
3161	$26,000	$31,005	Gupta Gold Dinar 335AD Samudragupta
4381	$25,000	$29,813	Type 3B Specimen Note Set
1191	$24,000	$28,620	1922 Sydney Sovereign good EF
1203	$21,000	$25,043	Type 12 Kookaburra Penny
3610	$21,000	$25,043	Bravery Award Group to Shane Day
4365	$19,500	$23,254	Kell Collins £10 Specimen Note
1125	$18,500	$22,061	Type II Adelaide Pound EF
3145	$17,000	$20,273	1864-S USA Double Eagle
4519	$16,000	$19,080	R608 $100 Bundle UNC
1815	$15,500	$18,484	Great Britain 1863 Sovereign Extremely Fine
1188	$15,000	$17,888	Perth Mint Sovereign Set
3609	$15,000	$17,888	Bravery Award Group to Hilton Alomes
4158	$14,000	$16,695	Bank of QLD £10 Issued Toowoomba
4377	$14,000	$16,695	Type 3A Specimen Note Set
1189	$13,500	$16,099	Perth Mint Sovereign Set
1205	$13,000	$15,503	1927 Canberra Proof Florin
1126	$12,000	$14,310	Type II Adelaide Pound EF
3250	$12,000	$14,310	1627 Indian Rupee Dawar Bakhsh
3268	$12,000	$14,310	1628 Indian Rupee Shah Jahan I
4376	$12,000	$14,310	Type 1 Specimen Note Set (5 Notes)
2557	$11,000	$13,118	Russia 1958 Rouble
3538	$11,000	$13,118	Group of 8 Military Medals to Colonel Cuddon
1208	$10,000	$11,925	1935 Proof Penny and Halfpenny
1291	$10,000	$11,925	1932 Florin Choice Uncirculated

This is an interesting time to be in the Australian numismatic market, as there is a real mix of new faces and old heads at auctions such as this one. There has been enough turmoil in our market over the past 5-10 years that those collectors and dealers that couldn’t or didn’t weather the storm left opportunities for those keen enough to sniff them out. The newer attendees I’d seen a few sales ago now seem to be staying longer and buying more, so the wheel continues to turn.

The early sessions this time round perhaps didn’t include the number of major error coins that have been seen in recent sales, however there were enough gems in the bulk lots that a dedicated and hardy few collectors got decent returns for the time they needed to put in to hunt them down. The later afternoon session was punctuated by a few highlights in the medal and token session, which set the scene for the evening session.

The main coin session for Noble Numismatics 119 started off with around 50 or so lots of proclamation and colonial coins. This area of the market never seems to capture the wild swings of attention that other areas of our coins do, however it sure does have a solid collector base that stays active rain, hail or shine. The 1813 Dumps that followed didn’t fare quite as well - just one of the eight coins got away on the night.

The next coin that followed was a Type I Adelaide Pound in better than average condition. We haven’t seen one of these in decent grade for sale since the Quartermaster Collection sale in 2009, which obviously was just shy of a decade ago now. This particular coin sold, however had several fairly distinct marks across the obverse that could have explained a softer than expected result. Demand for the two Type II’s that followed was better, albeit at price levels that may not have satisfied the vendors.

The amount of Aussie gold on offer this auction wasn’t as much as there has been in recent sales, however the coins included ticked over nonetheless. There was a decent number of pre-decimal proofs to follow, t’d be fair to say the quality didn’t match the quantity however. These coins really are hard work at the moment - their history and rarity hasn’t diminished one iota over the past decades, however it does seem there are less quality-agnostic buyers that are active at the moment, which makes it a lot harder for those only interested in the very best to drill down on the coins they’re keen on.

The QEII proof coins from the Melbourne and Perth Mints that followed were just as hard - it amazes me how much value is on offer in proof coins at the moment. Really great coins are pretty much a fraction of what they were just a few short years ago.

The Australian pre-decimal coins in this sale had a collection of varieties that had been off the market for many, many years - although the quality wasn’t exactly great, there was some anticipation as to what they’d bring. The quality of the coins on offer probably wasn’t as high as it needed to be to really push the market’s buttons in 2018, however there were some decent prices when the planets of rarity and quality aligned.

Tentacles of demand reach across the world when quality is on offer, which is exactly what happened when several of the better British silver and gold coins reached the auction block. It’s amazing to see a session really come alive for one coin in 50 or 100, however great minds think alike and they sure know what they’re looking for when a Noble catalogue arrives in the mail.

The world coins also contained a few select lots that drew in funds from across the globe - prime among them was a collection of Indian States coins that had been off the market for a number of decades. These coins really aren’t accessible to Western collectors - the cultures that issued them are separated from us by close to a century and literally a world of distance. Collectors interested in such coins could care less about our level of interest however, and they sold well regardless - a number of these coins ranked among the most valuable items sold in the entire sale.

The Thursday evening note session had a solid range of pre-Federation notes to begin with. Not quite as many as were in the Caldwell collection, but an excellent range nonetheless. I found the level of interest to be higher than it has been in recent years, the spread of demand was wider also. For a lot of years supply in this segment of the market was channelled through a tight number of dealers and even collectors, however those days are clearly long gone. I could see in this session that the dealers active here are quite different to those that were active back when the boom was underway, there are also a good number of new collectors to the market picking up items that are of interest. The demand was decent across the board - proofs, specimens and issued notes alike. We aren’t seeing record prices by any means, but the clearance rate is far better than what it was just a few years ago.

The notes on offer in the pre-decimal series that followed ranged in rarity, quality and value. The lower (circulated) end of the market seems to be quite content trading in the range that it has been in recent years, now that some quality notes are coming onto the market without firm vendor instructions or dealer competition, we’re seeing some excellent value for historic, blue-chip notes. The rarity of our finest pre-decimal notes hasn’t changed a bit over the past decade, collectors with an eye for value are really picking up some great deals at the moment.

The pre-decimal specimen notes that followed really were hard work - just one of the notes offered found a new home, even when the reserves appeared to be at the low end of the range similar items have been offered at in recent times. I can see this segment of the market taking a little more time to shake itself out yet. The decimal specimen notes fared better, but not by much it has to be said. These are the rarest and most exclusive notes that collectors have the opportunity to buy, it seems that even if the current batch of collectors out there are sold on the history and rarity that these notes have, they remain to be convinced that the market for them has settled. Judging by the way reserves are being adjusted in the current market, I don’t think we’re too far away from the bottom at all.

The star replacement notes that followed seemed to be affected by the same mindset - the rarity of these notes has remained changed in recent years, however the collectors that see them at auction don’t seem to be confident that the current catalogue values reflect what they’re really worth, as truly rare notes in great quality are selling for cents in the dollar. As someone that’s been in the market across a number of different stages of the numismatic market cycle, I find it hard to comprehend just how volatile prices for great notes seem to be at the moment, however the market doesn’t seem to care much about that!

Looking back over the auction activity for 2018, even if we aren’t yet in a point in time where vendors and buyers are equally happy, I believe the market has made progress. There are far fewer buyers (or vendors) stewing over just how bad or great things are - they’re moving onto their next opportunity as soon as the auction’s done. This is, from what I can understand at least, what happens in efficient market, so we’re making solid progress!

It’ll be interesting to see how 2019 builds on the results we had across 2018.

Volume 28 of the Journal of the Numismatic Association of Australia (NAA) Has Just Been Published

andrew — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 01:03:47 +0800

The Numismatic Association of Australia (NAA) is the peak body for numismatics in Australia (for those of you that aren’t aware, numismatics is the study of coins - as opposed to just accumulating, hoarding or collecting of coins).

The articles in this journal are all quite detailed and go pretty deep into the weeds, so although they may not appeal to the punter that’s just interested in knowing what coins and notes they should look for in their change, they are the most detailed and authoritative papers of their type in the country.

Here are the contents for Journal 28:

If you’re not already a member of the NAA (and if you’re into Australian numismatics you should be), you can read the articles either online or in PDF format at your leisure.

Back issues are also available, and are a great resource for anyone with an interest in numismatics in Australia. While I can appreciate the level of detail that some of the numismatists have gone into in the above articles, they simply aren’t areas that I have a specific interest in. The articles by Paul Holland and Vince Verheyen however are well worth checking out if you have any interest in Australian 20th century coinage at all.

Late 2018 Auction Roundup - Roxbury 101, Status 346 and Downie 329 - 3 Sales in 3 Cities in 4 Weeks

andrew — Sat, 13 Oct 2018 02:14:32 +0800

The Australian numismatic community has a month of strong activity kicking off today - Roxbury’s are having their 101st auction in Brisbane as I type this; Status International will conduct auction 346 at their new premises in Sydney next Friday, which will be followed by the ANDA Money Expo at the Sydney Lower Town Hall the Friday after. The Monday after that, Downie’s hold their auction 329 in suburban Melbourne - I wonder how many dealers or collectors will chalk up each of those 4 events on their calendar?

Roxbury 101 - October 13th 2018

This is the first Roxbury auction that I will have missed in as long a time as I can remember - in perhaps close to a decade. Time is at a premium for us all at the moment, and with a few other projects going on, I’ll need to leave the bargains on offer to those that call Brisbane closer to home.

Roxbury’s tend to fly under the radar for a lot of collectors - I’ve long not been able to understand how some items can bring significantly more in one part of Australia than another, whether it has to do with more collectors for a particular type of item being concentrated in one city over another, I just don’t know.

Roxbury’s always have a broad range of material available, and within that there can generally be found a few truly scarce and interesting items.

Their 101st sale opens with the type of material that’s popular the nation over - inexpensive numismatic items of every stripe. There are a number of pre-decimal coins that have been hand-rolled into bank rolls - I think I can recognise the (distinctive) hand writing by the dealer that would have prepared them decades ago, so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare. The pre-decimal copper and silver appears to be largely raw and in line with the material seen around the traps. There do seem to be a few scarcer varieties, as well as some that will prove to be good buying if the grades are right, so there’ll be some activity across them I’m quite sure of it.

It’s interesting to see a relatively healthy number of world coin errors in this sale - they’re not in really strong demand in Australia, however could prove to be cheap to those that are getting into the error or variety market. The regular world and British coins that follow on look to be really well priced, so I expect there to be plenty of participation in that section also.

New Zealand specimen notes had a truly strong run in prices leading up to the zenith of the GFC, however have since come back to earth quite solidly. Although these notes are just as rare and historic as specimens from any other part of the world, the overall demand for notes from New Zealand really isn’t strong, so prices continue to be soft relative to where they were at. The remaining world notes look to have some interesting items in amongst them (some from North Korea for those that like to collect on a topical basis).

The Australian gold coins on offer will need to be picked over, as the liquidity these days is really in PCGS graded material, as we’ve seen in the most recent auctions elsewhere. I expect there to be a few gems in this batch, however I can see the rest of them being hard work.

As the font cover indicates, there are a number of top-level rarities in this sale, both coins and notes. These rarities do seem to be items that have either appeared in recent Roxbury sales and are being offered again, or are similar to those that are offered elsewhere and have been unsold. Auction estimates are a notoriously poor guide to just what an item will bring on the day, so while some will sit back and say these items will never sell at those prices, I bet there will be at least one potential buyer in the room just on the off chance that the reserves have been adjusted to meet the market.

The paper and polymer decimal specimen notes all appear to have been estimated in line with the market they’ve enjoyed in recent months, as do the pre-federation notes. Both of these areas have been active at a price in recent months, so there’s no reason at all why they can’t sell in Brisbane today. The issued pre-decimal notes that follow will need to be picked over by the dedicated few if any treasures are to be unearthed.

It really is the final series of lots that I believe showed the greatest promise - the paper decimal star notes. These notes are extremely rare relative to the standard notes they replaced, and bring many thousands of dollars in truly mint condition. Some of the pre-sale estimates appear to have a zero missing from them if the grades are to be taken as accurate, so this selfish absent bidder hopes they aren’t the deal of a decade that I miss out on! I’ll know in a few short hours whether that was the case or not, and will fill you in when we review the results in a month’s time.

Status International - October 19th 2018

Anyone considering the next Status Auction really has no grounds to complain about the volume on offer - 4,183 lots places this as one of the largest on the 2018 calendar. Unlike Noble Numismatics however, Status International gets squared away in an afternoon - so you don’t blink or you’ll literally miss out!

The early section of this auction is highlighted by an intact bundle of paper $100 notes, which is something I haven’t seen before. Bundles have been quite popular in recent years, however the ask price of this lot (understandably) is a lot higher than most due to the face value and rarity that it has, so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t sell the first time round.

There is the usual array of ex-wreck coins, followed up by a deep range of proclamation and colonial coins. At 75 lots, this makes it one of the largest offerings of this type of coin in any recent auction I can think of, which should appeal to those that are after them. The Australian gold coins that follow all appear to be “raw”, that is they haven’t been PCGS graded, which will make it hard to move a good percentage of them. Status do post images online, however I’d have to say that if more of the coins had been graded and the auction experience was more accessible to buyers, then I’d be more confident in them selling. That said, dedicated buyers are the ones that traverse such challenges - the more barriers to the rest of us the better they’ll say.

The selected Australian pre-decimal coins that follow include 3 1930 pennies and a much rarer 1931 penny with the Dropped 1 reverse and the Indian obverse. The latter will get away, I’m quite confident of that.

The pre-decimal proofs that follow don’t appear to be too spectacular, however to each their own, and these coins have as much chance of selling as they would have anywhere else. A huge range of tokens and medallions follows, these will no doubt be picked over by the most dedicated collectors in those areas, just in case the auctioneer has made an error or oversight.

The pre-federation notes include a truly rare NSW Treasury note - perhaps the 3rd example to be seen in the past 12 months, which is remarkable. The estimate looks to be slightly lower than the comparable note had in the last Noble Numismatics sale, which will make it appealing to dedicated collectors in this area.

The pre-decimal notes will need to be picked over by anyone interested in taking a plunge, the number of lots included indicates that may be worthwhile.

I won’t be attending the Status auction myself, however with more than 4,000 lots on offer it will have to be worth a visit by the local collectors at least.

Downie’s Australian Coin Auctions - October 31st

This sale runs reasonably hot on the heels of Downie sale 328, which was held in late August. The very short turnaround time looks like it may have affected the number of lots on offer, as a few of the sections seem to contain far less material than we’ve seen in recent Downie sales. I noticed a 2010 Heritage set early on in the decimal lots, which has been a hot and keenly chased item for a few years now. Just 400 of these sets were released, and it contains a proof silver round 50¢ that is particularly important as a type coin, which is one reason this set has had an enduring appeal. Another decimal rarity to follow is a 1968 2¢ without the designer’s initials on the reverse - these are very tough to come by with their full red patina.

Several of the popular concept or test notes start the decimal banknote session off, which should prove to be popular if IAG’s auction is any guide. After the regular paper and polymer decimal notes, there are no less than 34 different paper decimal star notes - these all appear to be affordable given their grades, so should prove popular.

The next few sections of the world coins, world notes and tradesman’s tokens are very light on compared to what we’ve seen Downie’s offer in recent years, so I expect this is one section that was affected by the short turnaround time.

There are a couple of the rare and ever-popular Hay Internment notes offered, I expect them to attract attention. The Australian gold coins really are quite limited in numbers here, certainly compared to the sale we all attended just 6 weeks ago or so. I find it curious that this auction contains a full set of 1934 and 1938 proof coins - each coin PCGS graded and offered in just 2 separate lots. If I check my auction records for the past decade or so, I can see that 1938 proof year sets have turned up from time to time, however the last PCGS-graded set of 1934 proof coins I’ve seen was in the USA in January 2010, where it made more than A$300,000! Things have changed considerably since then, so we’ll see if there are any bargain hunters in Melbourne on the day.

There are a few QEII proof copper coins up next that appear to be worth checking over - lots of colour and decent surfaces to boot. The pre-decimal notes that follow on after that really are quite limited in numbers, however there appears to be a couple of affordable rarities amongst them at least, so the dedicated collector working to a budget will do well to check them over.

So there we have a month’s worth of auction activity for you - it’s unusual for them to be packed in together, however there must be something in their accounting cycles that sees them scheduled very close to each other.

IAG Auction 88 Review - Just Shy of a Million Sold In Short Order

andrew — Sat, 13 Oct 2018 12:01:40 +0800

It’s been a few weeks now since IAG held their 88th auction on the Gold Coast - as our headline above indicates, it was a short and productive affair.

Unlike some auctions that literally run for the better part of a week, from 9 in the morning until 10 at night, IAG’s auctions are conducted over a far more civilised timeframe. 4 1/2 to 5 hours across a Sunday afternoon in the QLD sunshine is a lot easier to cope with than a full day’s work after battling the Sydney traffic.

This particular IAG auction was solid, without being robust. Here’s the tale of the tape:

	TURNOVER	# SOLD	# ABOVE $10K
TOTAL	$748,314	651	5
Inc BP	$912,943
Clearance Rate		77.50%
Average Lot Value		$1,149.48

Those numbers show that the activity at Broadbeach was pretty solid, with some decent money changing hands - the average lot value was quite a bit higher than a lot of other auctions in recent years also. It’s interesting to note that figure wasn’t particularly skewed by a large number of really high value sales, as the 5 lots below were those that made a hammer price greater than $10,000:

Lot #	Item	Hammer	Nett
205	1936 10/- Specimen Note	$30,000	$36,600
207	1918 £5 Specimen Note	$35,000	$42,700
208	1913 £20 Colour Trial Note	$40,000	$48,800
439	1813 NSW Holey Dollar - Very Good	$70,000	$85,400
443	1893 Melbourne Proof Half Soveriegn	$60,000	$73,200

Pre-decimal specimen notes have certainly come back from the heady days of a decade ago, but those that are getting away seem to be settling into an established range at the moment - the 3 sales listed above via IAG are evidence of that. It was good to see some healthy interest in the Holey Dollar, there was a bit of bidding competition on the proof gold half sovereign as well which is pleasing given the history and incredible rarity coins like that have.

Section by section, this is how the sale unfolded. World coins are always the first cab off the rank in an IAG sale, there was some good bidding competition in this sale for the items listed. I get across the values outside Australia for as many of these items as I can before the sale, to see what the level of interest and liquidity is relative to the catalogue values, and can say that the prices achieved for the world coins in this IAG auction were pretty healthy compared to what they bring overseas. This has a lot to do with convenience and accessibility - I know that if I see an attractive world coin in a local auction I’ll have a tilt at it, however I won’t necessarily chase it via an overseas auction unless I have to.

There weren’t too many proclamation coins in this sale, so it wasn’t unusual to see them all sell in line with their estimates. A lot of puff has come out of the market for Australian pre-decimal coins in recent months - the activity at IAG reflected that also. Buyers are happy to participate, they just want value for money is all.

The pre-federation note session was quite startling - I can’t recall the last time an auction session for these notes had a 100% clearance rate, so this was quite remarkable in the face of the disinterest of years past. Make no mistake, prices weren’t solid however it seems that more than a few collectors see value in this area of the market, which is great to see. Following on from the activity in the Caldwell Collection handled by Noble Numismatics a few months back, this activity bodes well for this area of the market.

The market for pre-decimal notes does appear patchy at present - I know from our own sales that there is a growing number of collectors keen to build solid collections in this area of the market, however as they have quite specific interests with respect to quality and / or era, things can appear quiet if the right material isn’t on offer. Sales of the pre-decimal notes via IAG 88 were in line with expectations, so we’re still proceeding as we have been across 2018.

The British coins (silver and gold) that followed were quite active also - this is another area that people buy in because simply they like them - they don’t have an eye on every tick of the barometer of the market, which ironically means that the market moves along quite nicely thank you. There were some strong prices paid for the more valuable coins consigned - scarcer crowns and the higher denomination gold coins. Some had been PCGS graded, which increased their liquidity if the clearance rate is any guide.

There weren’t too many pre-decimal star notes in this sale to draw any major conclusions, ditto with the paper decimal stars. After doing so well earlier in the year, the reality is that paper and polymer decimal specimen notes continue to be soft via auction at present. 5 of the 8 notes offered were sold which was great, however the bidding on offer was really only evident below the estimated prices, and vanished once higher price levels were reached. It was great to see a good cross-section of interest in the polymer trial / test / concept notes

The Australian gold coins that followed after the world gold coins were also within range. The PCGS-graded coins certainly seemed to sell more often (all things being equal), which is an ongoing trend for this market. Some of the prices made were at retail levels, others were just in line with the underlying metal market.

Error notes were solid as always via IAG, the more unusual errors had no trouble at all bringing decent prices.

The sale then stepped up a notch with the Holey Dollars and Dumps. The Dumps ticked over (2/3 sold), while the cheaper Holey Dollar brought what I thought was a very strong price indeed. The hammer price didn’t make the low estimate, however it did sell for more than what comparable coins have made in recent years, that is certain. The better of the two Holey Dollars really was an exceptional example - the host coin had been sharply struck and retained great details, which the counterstamps were still also very sharp. As described, it is easily amongst the finest known examples of our nation’s first coins, however the half a million dollar estimate meant that the crowd of admirers didn’t yield an active bidder. The Adelaide Pounds that followed weren’t particularly strong. The second Adelaide Pound was again one of the finest known examples (if not the finest known), with a pedigree that is acknowledged for rarity and collector interest over an extended period of time.

The $400,000 pre-sale estimate again stopped a lot of those that saw the coin and were delighted with it from raising their card. The proof half sovereign that followed had plenty of interest - bidding ran from $45,000 to $60,000 in a short space of time, which is a result consistent with others offered in recent years. The copper proofs that followed were not as popular however, despite the fair pre-sale estimates, they were left alone.

The next section of the sale contained the "better” (higher value) pre-decimal copper and silver coins, many of them PCGS graded. It’s clear to see from the clearance rate and the prices realised that this are of the market is down on where it was just a few years back. Sit in the room for a session of these items and you can clearly see there are still quite a number of collectors that are active, it just seems to be the more cashed-up ones are more selective than they were a few years back, and there isn’t enough competition to push the rest higher than they’re prepared to go. This is an area of the market that offers real value to collectors that are happy with the items that they’re able to get. There were a couple of less expensive pre-decimal proofs that were offered next, and again the prices achieved showed that the market for most of these coins remains tepid on at best.

It was great to see what I believe was the biggest or most comprehensive collection of Internment tokens offered up next. This is an area that most of us are exposed to in fits and starts, so to see a large range of tokens offered at once was quite rare. Values in the main were pretty consistent with recent auction results, and showed this is an area that collectors are quite happy to remain active in, regardless of what is happening elsewhere.

The error coins that followed seemed to be a little more subdued than they have been in previous sales, no doubt largely due to the items on offer. I had to sit on my hands when the double-sided penny was offered up - as one of only 2 genuine examples in private hands, it had to be cheap at $5,000! Relatively speaking, there are many more double-sided decimal coins of all denominations that bring close to that.

The sale wrapped up pretty quickly after the miscellaneous lots that followed, and I believe all in all it was a positive sale. Sure, there were no record prices and no queues out the door, but they aren’t the times we’re trading in at the moment. If we reflect just on the overall clearance rate and the average lot value, I’d have to say that our market is ticking along well at present.

We’ll need to keep an eye on the results in the Roxbury, Downie and Status auctions in the days and weeks to come to see if these positive signs are built on.

The Dauer Collection of Australian Banknotes Auctioned by Heritage Auction Galleries

andrew — Sat, 08 Sep 2018 04:12:07 +0800

The Dauer Collection of Australian Banknotes was finally put to auction this week in the United States - I say finally as several prior attempts to move the collection en bloc had been made over the past 5 years or so, without apparent success.

This collection is well-known to collectors that have been active for some time, as it was the subject of a superb book on Australia’s currency history - "Australian History (1901 To 2001) As Seen Through Banknotes”, by Dr Joanne and Dr Edward Dauer - an American couple that had travelled to Australia numerous times for their annual holidays, and who had taken to collecting our currency notes as a way of keeping in touch with Australia while at home.

Self-published in conjunction with John Pettit in 2007, their book is (in my opinion at least) easily one of the finest books published on any Australian numismatic subject. It is well-researched, is superbly designed and illustrated, and features a wide range of rare, historic and beautiful notes.

It was incredibly hard to obtain for several years after it was released, however with the major upheavals that took place across 2012 and 2013, the standing ask price switched from around $225 per copy to about $35 per copy.

Despite that adjustment in value, the auction of this collection has been keenly anticipated for some years. It is interesting that the Dauer’s chose to exit their collection via Heritage Auction Galleries in their Long Beach auction held in Los Angeles just this week (September 2018). Heritage Auction Galleries is unequivocally the leading auction house for numismatic items in the world, their systems and processes are beyond compare, so as the Dauer’s are from the USA themselves, it is not surprising they would choose their leading auction house to handle the sale of their collection.

Collectors are very ethnocentric however, in that they mainly collect items that relate to their own heritage. Although there are more than a few Aussies in Hollywood these days, Los Angeles remains a 15 hour flight away from the Eastern seaboard, which is where the vast majority of the buyers for these notes is located. Heritage has a fantastic website however, so one need not necessarily travel to the US if they wanted to bid - setting up an account and bidding with them online is a fairly straightforward process.

The currency variation between the USD and the AUD can be addressed by a simple mathematical calculation, so that again doesn’t present a significant issue.

The main barrier to bidding on this collection in my opinion was the way the notes were presented. The catalogue was superb and entirely in line with Heritage’s impeccable standards, however the notes had all been graded (independently) by PMG (Paper Money Guaranty), which is a quality standard that isn’t easily translated into the adjectival system that collectors and dealers in Australia have used to date. One could of course quite easily argue that it is infinitely preferable to offer notes that have been independently-graded, in order to address any concerns that collectors might have buying an item sight-unseen from the other side of the world.

Until someone is able to publish a comprehensive explanation as to how the grading standard that PMG uses translates to the adjectival standard that prevails in Australia at present, I believe the take-up of independent grading of notes will take far longer to be widely adopted than the independent grading of coins took. The process by which coins and notes are graded is actually quite different - a collector can make their own determination of an independently-graded coin by examining it through the plastic “slab” that it is sealed in, however as banknotes need to be moved under a strong directional light in order to ascertain paper quality and the number of folds evident, and that just ain’t possible with a note that’s been sealed up in a plastic slab.

I’ve had some very limited experience in buying a few Australian notes that have been independently graded by either PCGS or PMG, and although I’m quite confident in my own ability the assess the notes that I handle, I haven’t yet seen enough notes to definitively determine that a note graded as VF30 by PMG or PCGS would be accepted here as Fine, Very Fine or otherwise.

One long workaround to this challenge is to check the auction history for any notes being considered - Mick Vort Ronald’s meticulous research in this area makes such research a lot easier than it would otherwise be, however I know there are very few collectors with the time and dedication to go to that extent in order to prepare for a sale such as this.

So it was in the face of those challenges that the Dauer collection was auctioned this week in the US! 158 lots were offered up, 118 sold for a clearance rate of 74.68%. As one might expect, the rarer and more expensive notes in the collection were “covered” to ensure they were not given away, however those notes were not all in the five or six figure price brackets. A number of the rarer but less valuable notes (KGVI stars as an example) were also covered.

The 5 most valuable notes in the Dauer collection by hammer price were:

Item	Lot	USD Hammer	USD Nett	AUD Nett
1924 £100 R69a VF30	27638	$43,200	$51,840	$72,881
1918 £20 R65a EF40	27632	$42,000	$50,400	$70,856
1924 £100 R69b VF30	27639	$38,400	$46,080	$64,783
1925 £10 R55 CU64	27664	$33,600	$40,320	$56,685
1923 £1 R22b VF30	27642	$21,000	$25,200	$35,428

As the sale of the Dauer collection came hot on the heels of the sale of the Caldwell collection just a month or so ago, it is interesting to compare values between the two of them. Although the Dauer collection had been publicised extremely well via the History Through Banknotes book, the Caldwell collection clearly didn’t suffer as a result:

	Caldwell	Dauer
Total # of Notes Offered	270	158
Total # of Notes Sold	232	118
Clearance Rate	85.93%	74.68%
Total Value Sold	$1,819,290	$891,165
Average Lot Value	$7,842	$7,552

A comparison of the two collections shows that whereas the Dauer collection contained notes dating between 1901 and 2006, whereas Caldwell had at least 68 lots that dated earlier than 1901. Not only was Caldwell clearly the more comprehensive of the two collections, the clearance rate and average lot value were both higher - hardly surprising given the location and circumstances of the Dauer sale.

It’s been a very busy month for collectors of Australian notes - IAG’s next sale in a few weeks time will be a perfect opportunity for those collectors that missed out to be on the lookout for the next opportunity.

Downie 328 Auction Review

andrew — Sat, 08 Sep 2018 12:55:09 +0800

Just a few weeks after the major event that was Noble Numismatics 118, Downie’s had their auction #328. Although the headline items in this sale would leave most Australian collectors fairly non-plussed, it was still a very productive event.

Total turnover for the sale amounted to $843,611, with a clearance rate of 88.98% - well in line with recent sales by Downie’s and the like. What was unusual however was the fact that not one single lot of the 2,795 sold made a hammer price greater than $10,000, which is unusual even for the times our market is in at present. If I run an eye over the few mainstream Australian lots that were offered up with estimates close to or above our arbitrary high water mark, this perhaps wasn’t as shocking as it first might seem - the only note really at that level was a Type I Specimen note set, the only coin really at that level was a corroded 1930 penny. Neither of those items are really resonating with collectors at present, so they were not surprisingly left alone.

The sale kicked off with some really interesting and unusual decimal curiosities, both coins and notes. When within what current collectors would regard as affordable levels they changed hands, when they were set at anything close to a premium, they were left alone. Due to the fundamental link they have to the evolution of polymer printing technology, I think the polymer test notes that originated out of CSIRO in the 1970’s are important to every collector of Australian notes, not just to polymer note collectors. That said, the market is still in it’s early stages of acceptance and understanding of these notes, so now really isn’t the time for them to have premium prices placed on them. None of the 3 notes offered in this auction sold, which bears that theory out. The specimen notes that followed were mixed - the two that got away were priced well, so there is still a pulse to the market. The QEII proofs showed that this is perhaps the softest area of the Australian coin market at present - I didn’t personally examine the 1955 Perth proof copper pair that was in this sale, however they looked acceptable from the images, and made a fraction of what they would have in years passed.

The Commonwealth coins in this sale all looked to be fairly inoffensive, in that they were mainly all “raw”. Some dedicated buyers did clearly search through them however, as at least one coin made 3 times the published estimate, after some competitive bidding.

There wasn’t much to speak of in the Australian notes - the decimal notes were active as always; the pre-federation note section didn’t include anything particularly startling, neither did the Commonwealth series of notes.

The headline items for this auction was a very specialised series of coins related to the Order of Malta, which according to the source cited by Wikipedia is "a Catholic lay religious order traditionally of military, chivalrous and noble nature.” Although there would clearly be a world market for coins such as this, there was very little demand for the coins struck in the early years of this series.

Downie Auction 328 won’t go down in the records as being a record sale by any measure, however with more than $800,000 turnover and a more than acceptable clearance rate, it was another solid day in the office for the Australian numismatic market.

Noble Numismatics 118 Review - 3 Named Collections Hit the Market

andrew — Sat, 08 Sep 2018 11:52:50 +0800

One of the largest and most important Australian numismatic auctions in recent years was held in Sydney in July 2018. Noble Numismatics held their 118th auctions, it was one that one man might describe as being “the last of the big sales”.

One of the problems the Australian numismatic market has had over the past decade is that we’ve had many vendors that bought during the last market cycle, while the vast majority of the buyers were fresh and had little direct experience of the days when prices were bullish and absolutely everything was in demand.

It’s hard to make a deal when the seller only wants to sell at price X and the buyer wants to buy at X * 0.6. What generally happens is that those vendors end up disappearing from the market, and deals are eventually made with the few pragmatic vendors that meet the market.

To the degree that it featured several “named” collections of quality material across a range of numismatic categories, Noble Numismatics 118 was important as a benchmark of where the market is in 2018. While the results may not have pleased vendors and buyers alike; liquidity was evident and it was clear that buyers were prepared to enter new price territory as soon as they saw value on the table.

Tuesday - Early

We numismatists are creatures of habit - the agenda for day 1 of the Noble Numismatics auction was the same as they have been for the past few decades. The early sessions featured a great range of Australian error and variety coins, both decimal and pre-decimal. A number of the more extreme errors made strong prices, while there was a small run of very recently struck decimal errors that caught the eye. I counted perhaps half a dozen error coins struck across 2015 and 2016 included in this sale - this mighty coincidence will no doubt raise a few eyebrows in the Royal Australian Mint quality control department, they just seemed too good to be true! The most remarkable of these was a 2016 20¢ struck on a copper-nickel triangular Cook Islands planchet, one that made a very strong price. Just how a planchet like that can skip from one barrel at the Mint to another I am yet to understand. I thought that an error that was even more interesting was the 2015 $1 Mule.

There are few coins that generate as much interest in the mainstream media today as the 2000 $1 Mule - it is worth a few hundred dollars no matter what condition it’s in, and there are enough of them still in circulation that the average person stands something of a chance to find them. Whenever a “new” story breaks about the 2000 $1 Mule, it blows up on social media and then across mainstream media in kind. I would have thought the discovery of a Mule in another date would be news that would really appeal, however the price that this coin made suggested otherwise. A $2,000 hammer price is far less than what a 2000 Mule would have brought in the same grade, so there is most likely an explanation that makes sense for this outcome. I know several sightings of Mules of the 2014 Anzac $1 coins have been claimed, just whether they pass the pub test with your average collector of decimal error coins is another thing.

Another decimal rarity that surprised me for not being sold was lot 320 - one of the 2010 Decimal Currency Heritage Proof Sets. Just 400 of these sets were released, they had resin casts of some of the proposed designs, and contain several coins that are incredibly rare as far as decimal proof coins go. They are advertised for up to $7,000 on eBay, individual coins that have been busted out and PCGS-graded bring big dollars, yet this one was passed in at an estimate of $2,000. Due to the size of the case it’s in, it could only be purchased by someone that was prepared and able to collect it from the Noble premises in Sydney, which may have cut a lot of potential buyers out.

Tuesday - Afternoon

Well, this was yet another landmark session for the Australian numismatic industry - it was the first to include a comprehensive range of Australian sovereigns in decent quality that had been independently graded by PCGS. The coins themselves were no better than have been seen in Noble’s auctions for many years, however there’s no doubt that the quality was consistently better than seen in a Noble auction for some time. These sovereigns represented the most active and liquid section of the Australian gold coin market - full sovereigns dated 1899 through to 1931.

I have to say that I was a little concerned that the way these coins had been lotted up would affect their liquidity - most retail collectors like to build their collections coin by coin, particularly if they’re stretching their budget on each new coin they acquire (as one might expect them to do in a robust market). The auctioneers had batched many of these coins into lots of 2, 3 and even 8 coins, which I would have thought would have cut a lot of collectors out of the equation. That said, the clearance rate at least didn’t suffer in any way - only 2 of the 62 lots were passed in, which is quite remarkable. The easiest way of increasing the clearance rate in any auction is to reduce ask prices, however it doesn’t seem obvious that was the case. Retail figures for PCGS-graded sovereigns (coins for that matter) can vary very widely according to single point differences in grade and population, however the checks I’ve done indicate that the prices realised for the coins in single lots were at least reasonable relative to the retail values they have had in recent months.

I believe the result shows just how much appeal this sector of the market has to collectors - values are underpinned by a solid gold price; the numbers of coins required to complete a set is easily quantifiable and not outside the reach of the average collector; attractive and reasonably scarce coins don’t cost thousands of dollars in the main, yet there are enough key dates to really make a complete set quite challenging. I don’t see those fundamental factors changing any time soon either!

Tuesday - Evening

The Tuesday evening session was opened by the proclamation and colonial coins - true to form, good coins made good prices. Next up were the Holey Dollars and Dumps - 3 of the 4 Holey Dollars got away, while only 3 of the 10 Dumps got away. The best Holey Dollar really was one of the finer examples I’ve seen - the host coin was dated 1788 and had more meat on the bones than most, while the counterstamps were well-aligned and deeply struck. It seems the reserve was not only higher than the estimate, but also higher than the market was prepared to pay on this occasion, as it was passed in. The remaining 3 coins made prices reasonably above their conservative estimates.

The Dumps really didn’t fare as well, indicating that expectations need to come back further if they’re to meet the market. Collectors are prepared to pay for decent coins at a fair price, they certainly aren’t prepared to pick up anything that isn’t excellent value at present.

The Adelaide Assay Office pieces next up were also true to form, and brought prices I believe that reflect their current appeal, so nothing new there. The next series of coins were the “raw” gold sovereigns and halves (raw meaning they had not been independently graded by PCGS). The level of interest here reflected their scarcity in the quality they were offered in, and their current value. Across the board, they were quite popular.

The pre 1955 proofs that followed were fairly hard work, which is not surprising given the market for them elsewhere in recent months. Some were attractive, some looked lousy. Some were cheap, others were lotted high. Some were of uncertain attribution, others were clearly spot on - patchy sales are the result of this type of variability. The figures for the QEII proofs that followed next really were quite low relative to what similar coins were bringing just a few years ago, I think it’s incredible just how much this (popular) market has shifted in recent months.

The next major section of the sale was the offering of the Heathcote collection - a comprehensive collection of Australian Commonwealth silver coins in superior quality that, in the main, had been off the market for several decades. Commonwealth coins are not anywhere near as hot as they were just a few years back, however there is still keen competition for the finest known examples of each date. There will be no prizes for guessing that the highest prices were for key dates in superior quality. Highest valued of the lot was the 1914-H florin, a coin that had a lovely original patina. Next was a 1918 sixpence that was truly remarkable - sharp as a tack, and with delightful satin surfaces.

The prices these coins made were set by collectors who were quite happy and prepared to act against the tide of the market and buy coins that they liked the look of and thought were good value, which is nothing more than we can ask of them.

Wednesday

Wednesday was chock full of a lot of great coins for those that were into them. I appreciate that’s an odd comment to make, however not everyone is into British coins; ancient coins or coins from other nations of the world. Each of those sections had some fantastic material, ranging from silver coins from Oliver Cromwell in superlative condition; to a great depth of silver and gold ancient coins, to a very good array of world silver and copper coins. I attended those sessions sparingly, however the lots that I viewed and marked all made strong money, a clear indication that the international market for coins is as strong as it’s always been.

Thursday

Day 3 of Noble Numismatics 118 was devoted to paper of every kind - although I stopped in for the world note session in the early afternoon, I didn’t spend the time required to assess the value of the notes being offered, so could only observe the bidding activity with an uneducated disinterest. The Australian decimal notes that followed were interesting however - I know from my own sales that this segment of the market is very popular and liquid, this session didn’t disappoint. All of the lots were quite active, with varying degrees of interest. This led into the later afternoon session of pre-Federation and Commonwealth notes from a range of vendors. The key item in the early section was the share certificate from the Bank of New South Wales, issued in 1818 (very early in this bank’s history). It made a hammer price well above reserve - a good sign that there is still competing interest in mementos of our colonial banking history.

The Commonwealth notes were interesting - it may have been that there weren’t too many active collectors chasing better material on that night, however I was pleased to get nearly all of the notes that I’d marked down. Good quality notes from the KGVI and QEII eras are extremely tough to get in UNC condition, it was fortunate to be a buyer under those circumstances. Two items that appeared in this section of the sale were the R35 “No Mosaic” 5 pound notes. These incredibly rare notes were only on issue for a very short period of time in the early 1900’s, primarily because they could be (and were) easily counterfeited. My understanding is that there are only 10 examples of this note in existence, yet here there were 2 from the same collection in the same auction on the same night! Although they’re incredibly rare and important numismatically (they heralded a more complex design for the reverse of those notes), both were passed in on the night. The market for pre-decimal notes in my opinion currently doesn’t have the depth of demand to appreciate just why such tatty and unattractive notes should be worth big dollars. During the previous market cycle however, they were seen only once every few years (if at all), and were keenly contested each time they turned up.

All of the other high denomination Treasury series notes were represented by honest, his heavily-circulated examples of the £10, £20, £50 and £100. These notes are all incredibly rare, were no doubt prizes for the owner that had them previously, however didn’t bring the stellar attention that they would have when purchased 15-20 years ago. It was interesting to see the demand unfold for the specimens, stars and error notes that followed. I recall Woody Allen’s comment that he wouldn’t want to be a member of a club that would have him, and it almost seemed that the bidders in this auction had the same opinion. So tentative were the bids in sections that it looked like they didn’t want to own a note they were the last bidder on, as it most likely would mean they’d either paid too much or made a mistake!

That is never always the case of course, and although some notes made prices I didn’t think made any sense, other notes were quite cheap indeed. I was pleased to see some broad-based interest in the polymer concept / trial note issued by Innovia / Securency, there was enough bidding competition to push it up to a decent price level that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.

Thursday Evening - The Caldwell Collection of Australian Banknotes

Although there were several named collections in this sale (The Staughton and Heathcote collections), the Caldwell collection was easily the pick of the bunch. This was the most important intact collection of Australian notes to be offered via auction in Australia since the Nicholson sale of 1995, which should put it into perspective. This truly was a curated and comprehensive collection of Australian paper currency from our pre-Federation period, right through to the first series of polymer notes in the late 1990’s. It was testament to the collector that built it, it is clear that they had a passion for the series, had the determination required to acquire items comprehensively, and had the funds available to fulfil on that determination. To be sure, the notes were not comprehensively the finest known examples of their type, however they were certainly the best quality that were available at the time the collection was built, of that I have no doubt.

This sale was important not only for the incredible range and quality of notes that were on offer, but also for the level of demand it was being sold into. There are few dealers with deep pockets in this sector of the market at the moment, which leaves the demand very broadly-based. Any activity can therefore be taken as representative of the market, clear levels of support can be taken from the bidding seen.

Pre-Federation Notes

The pre-federation notes opened this session, and it was clear that the previous owner had gone to a good level of trouble to acquire a good range of notes that depicted a range of banks, regions, forms and denominations. There was an equal mix of proofs, specimens and issued notes, so we’re getting a good overview of the level of collector activity from the results. The clearance rate shows that just 2 of the 50 odd notes remained unsold, which is quite remarkable when compared to auctions in years past. We’ve seen pre-federation notes sell extremely cheaply in certain auctions over the past few years, and that wasn’t the case with this sale. Auction prices for pre-federation notes do seem to vary between cities, auction houses and states, it seems that Noble’s have a decent reach across this market.

Superscribed Notes

Superscribed notes were the first banknotes authorised by the Commonwealth government in 1910, and are fundamental to any depiction of our national currency history. They were actively withdrawn from circulation once the new “Treasury” series designs were ready to be issued from 1913, the vast majority of those that remain available to collectors are in heavily circulated quality. They’re so rare and tightly held that many collectors have never seen them before, which means the vast majority of collectors will only ever get one example as a type note.

The owner of the Caldwell collection saw fit to really explore this series in some detail - 21 different examples depicting a range of different banks; regions; denominations and of each of the 3 different superscription styles. That is second only to the Nicholson sale in terms of size and scope, and is another indicator that this really was a once in a generation collection.

In my experience, a collector that is keen on acquiring a superscribed note has: been active for a reasonable period of time; has confidence in the market and their own ability to identify value, and is resolved to build their collection regardless of whatever else is going on in the market. It has to be said that there are a lot fewer such collectors in the market these days than there were say 10 years ago, particularly when we focus only on higher value notes. Offering this collection into such a market wasn’t without risk - if collectors didn’t have confidence in their ability to assess the notes, it could have been quite a torrid result. As it turns out however, only 4 of the 21 notes offered were passed in, so the clearance rate was quite solid. Prices in the main reflected the incredible value that’s on offer in this market at the moment - a number of the hammer prices were very close to the amounts the notes sold for back in the mid 1990’s. Think about that for a moment - what blue-chip assets in Australia at present are currently valued the same as they were 20 years ago? You could of course argue that banknotes are dead in the water as assets of any consequence - never to return to the heady heights they reached a decade ago, however I’d suggest the history and rarity they have negates that argument totally. The vendors should be satisfied that the notes were sold into an informed and liquid market, while the buyers I hope are stoked with the value they were able to lock in. Superscribed notes are incredibly tough to come by in better than Very Good quality, so it’ll be interesting to see just how long it is until the next superscribed notes in decent quality are seen.

Commonwealth Notes

The notes issued by the Australian Commonwealth government between 1913 and 1966 are the longest and most keenly studied series we have to date, so this is where the bulk of the Caldwell collection was comprised of. Review the catalogue, and you can see that this was a curated and comprehensive collection of each and every variety of Commonwealth note in the best available quality. Be under no illusion however - the Caldwell collection wasn’t like some of the PCGS Registry Sets of Australian coins that are being built at the moment, where each coin is unequivocally the highest graded example known to exist, rather this was a collection of great quality notes that was built of the best quality examples of each note available when collectors and dealers the nation over competed to acquire them.

I expect that many of the collectors in attendance didn’t really appreciate just how rare some of the early serial number varieties of the different Treasury series notes are in any condition, which will explain why some only fetched modest prices and others were passed in. When I was in the room, I could tell that a lot of the bidders were clearly interested in taking part, but seemed to be tentative and waiting to get some feedback (positive reinforcement) from other bidders in the room before they really competed for the notes they were after. As with the superscribed notes in the previous section, there was great value on offer for those bidders resolved to chase the notes they were after. The real headline item was the “Number One” Rainbow Pound note - a superb example of one of our rarest Commonwealth notes, with an appealing serial number and a storied provenance. The hammer price was more than double the admittedly conservative estimate, it was something else to be in the room and to watch the determined bidding between two clearly determined bidders. There was keen bidding on a range of the other more valuable Commonwealth notes, so it was a good result for all concerned that very few lots remained unsold by the end of the evening.

War Related Issues

The next note to follow was one of the incredibly rare notes issued by the AN&MEF in New Guinea early in WWI, it was keenly contested and sold above reserve. Despite the easing market over the past decade or so, I believe notes such as that are bringing more than they were back when the market was stronger. A complete set of Hay Internment notes followed, which was fodder for the collectors that are active in this series and are starved of quality material for a lot of the time.

Specimen and Presentation Notes

If there’s one area of the Australian banknote market that is clearly yet to find a level, this is it. Specimen and presentation notes have traditionally been regarded as the apex of collecting here - the notes are incredibly rare, the first ones printed, and nearly always have a provenance tied to institutions or people that were fundamental to the design, production or distribution of the notes concerned. As with the demand for superscribed notes, specimen and presentation notes tend to be most appreciated by those collectors that have been active for a period of time, and appreciate their exclusivity and history. It is most likely the case that most collectors active today don’t appreciate just how rare and different these notes are. Although they basically look the same as issued notes, they are exponentially rarer and have an unmatched exclusivity. The current generation of collectors clearly isn’t as smitten by them as collectors in the past have been, as only 8 of the 18 lots offered were sold. I wasn’t even aware that the Phillips Wheeler Type 2 Specimen set even existed, and although that particular set got away, several others were left alone. I almost had to sit on my hands to try and stop myself from bidding on several of the lots - the Nugget Coombs set of 1953 specimen notes particularly were incredible value relative to what they’ve traded for in years past, however we can’t own everything. Based on this price action, it seems this section of the market is perhaps 6-12 months behind the rest of the note market with regards to finding a level that collectors are confident at participating in.

Star Replacement Notes

Star replacement notes have also long been held in higher esteem than the standard notes issued into circulation, principally because of their higher relative rarity and exclusivity. Pre-decimal stars seem to be behind their decimal equivalents at present - only 2/3rds of those sold, while all of the decimal notes got away. Some of these notes were equivalent to the finest examples known, so I’d hope the buyers that were successful with their bids are pleased with what they got, they were fantastic value if relative values return to their long term ratios.

Overall, I believe the auction of the Caldwell collection was an unqualified success - the clearance rate was entirely in line with what one would plan to achieve, even if demand evaporated in certain segments. I believe it should give collectors confidence in the long term appeal that these notes have, the next 6-12 months will be crucial to determining just where the specimen and star replacement notes settle to.

Noble Numismatics Auction 118b Preview - The Caldwell Collection of Australian Banknotes

andrew — Mon, 11 Jun 2018 05:14:04 +0800

August 2nd 2018 will see the biggest and most important auction of Australian banknotes held in this country since the Nicholson sale back in November 1995. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the note featured on the front cover of the auction catalogue by Noble Numismatics for the Caldwell collection of Australian Banknotes is the first note in a consecutive pair - the second note featured on the front cover of catalogue of the Nicholson collection.

Times have sure changed since then - few dealers and collectors from that generation remain active today, and the market for Australian notes has been through several phases since then.

History and rarity doesn’t change one iota over time however, so I have no doubt at all that this sale will be keenly attended by a large group of dedicated collectors keen to lock in their own slice of Australian numismatic history. There are so many incredible notes in this sale, the collection and auction will surely be looked at in years to come as one of the most important collections to have ever been formed.

It is interesting to see that the collector behind the Caldwell collection didn’t enter into the area of colonial currency notes, however each era in Australian banknotes that followed on from our earliest days (Pre Federation; Superscribed; Commonwealth; Paper Decimal and Polymer Decimal) are all comprehensively represented.

A collection like this requires just as much good taste, connections and determination as it does financial reserves, and it’s clear to me that those that formed the Caldwell had all the resources required to achieve such a momentous task. Here are my thoughts on the composition of the collection, section by section:

Pre Federation Banknotes

Back in the days before the GFC, prefed notes were very seldom seen at auction or on the open market. You’d be flat out seeing more than 3 prefed notes in most auctions, they were so tightly held. Such notes have been far more readily available over the past five years or so, however I sincerely don’t think this availability will be the norm in years to come, as large numbers simply don’t exist.

The Caldwell collection contains a great range of notes from the pre federation period - those printer’s proofs that are included are all rarities otherwise unseen in specimen or issued form, while the specimens are all rare, beautiful or historic (some meet each of those three criteria).

The issued notes are rounded out by two incredibly rare notes issued by the Queensland State Government in the 1890’s, as well as another by the NSW State Treasury at the same time.

Many of these notes have not been seen in several decades at least.

Superscribed Banknotes

Superscribed banknotes are so rare that many (if not most) collectors of Australian pre-decimal notes never see them, and so don’t understand just how important they are. In the decade following Federation, members of the Australian Labor Party were so keen to have notes issued by the Commonwealth Government enter circulation that they drafted an idea whereby unissued notes from Australia’s private banks were over-printed by the government printer and used as an interim measure until the Government’s facilities were ready to produce the uniform notes now known to collectors as “Treasury” notes from 1913.

I can’t think of an auction in the past decade that has featured more than 3 of these notes at any one time, superscribed notes are so rare those were invariably from the most readily available banks and “only” in low grade.

The Caldwell collection contains no less than 21 different superscribed notes, which is only half a dozen less than was in the Nicholson collection back in 1995. Some of the notes included here are from truly rare domiciles, others are in remarkably high quality, two consecutive pairs are included also.

One of the key notes in the entire sale is lot 4257, the superscribed £1 on a form from the Bank of Victoria. It is just the 9th superscribed banknote printed, and is also the lowest superscribed note in private hands. If Australia’s first ten shilling note from 1913 is worth a million or more, this £1 note which was issued three years earlier has to be worth more than the stated estimate of $35,000. Several superscribed five pounds and several superscribed ten pound notes are also included, both incredibly rare in private hands, and unseen for decades.

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this availability - I see it as being an incredibly rare opportunity to pick up an exclusive slice of Australia’s monetary history.

Commonwealth Banknotes

The run of Australian Commonwealth notes in the Caldwell collection truly is comprehensive in scope. Pretty much every Rennik’s number issued between 1913 and 1966 can be ticked off, many in superior quality. Reviewing the provenances of these notes, we can see that they hail from many significant collections such as those by Deutscher; Roy Brook; Williams; Spink Australia Auctions 1 and 2; Walsgott; Vort-Ronald and Nicholson. Some of the rarest Commonwealth notes such as the R19 superscribed £1 from WWI and both of the Rainbow Pounds that were issued shortly after that are represented. Those notes have been seen elsewhere on occasion over the past decade or so, however it is still fantastic to see such a comprehensive collection up for sale at one time.

The “No Mosaic” £5 notes included here aren’t in fantastic quality, however they are so rare in any grade I expect these were the only notes available over the timeframe this collection was put together.

I’m aware that many of the collectors active at the moment have a strong preference for notes that have original paper quality, I can’t help but think that some of the grading descriptions allocated to the Commonwealth notes in the Caldwell collection by the auctioneer are conservative. As auctioneers often state, I believe "a physical inspection will reward dedicated collectors."

Pre Decimal Specimen Banknotes

This is another area where the notes in it are so rare that most collectors aren’t aware they even exist. The Caldwell collection contains a run of pre-decimal specimens from the Legal Tender period, right through to our first polymer 1st Generation notes. I don’t recall the last time I saw a complete set of 4 predecimal specimen notes offered for sale via auction, however my auction records indicate it was back in 2014, a set of Coombs Watt notes in their original folder. You have to go back to 2001 to see another one, then 1998 before that, then you’re back into the 1980’s. They’re obviously incredibly rare!

A 1916 5/- unissued specimen is included as well, which is another seldom-seen rarity. In the decimal specimen notes, there are not one but two complete sets of Type 2 specimen notes, which my records indicate hasn’t been seen since 1984. They are incredibly rare, and are out of favour right at the moment, so could be an opportune buy for the right collector.

Sugar Replacement Notes

Pre-decimal and decimal star notes have long been keenly sought by experienced collectors for their incredible rarity, however t’s fair to say they aren’t exactly in favour with collectors right at the moment. The stars in this collection appear to be in fantastic quality if their descriptions are any guide at all. Again, for the collector that has a long term view of the market and isn’t fussed by what the mainstream is going, this auction could be a great opportunity.

Decimal Notes

Even though the Caldwell collection is heavy in rarities from the late 1800’s and 1900’s, those that put it together made just as much an effort to cover off the decimal series as those from the earlier periods. All of the decimal star notes are represented, as are the rarer signature combinations and serial number varieties.

In football this is called getting the 1% things right, when a team does all of the little things right. When the 1% rule is applied to a collection such as this, it’s clear that just as much attention to detail was paid to the less historical items as it was to the key highlights.

I have no doubt that the auction for the Caldwell collection will be one of the major events of the 2018 numismatic calendar, if you have a reasonable interest in Australian banknotes and can afford the time and expense of viewing and attending, you really won’t want to miss it.

Roxbury 100 Review and Downie 327 Preview

andrew — Fri, 18 May 2018 05:20:05 +0800

It’s now been a few weeks since Roxbury’s racked up their 100th auction, and I expect the phones will have been ringing there with post-auction sales to disappointed bidders who missed out on their initial bids.

The published (preliminary) prices realised show that, at the time that the last lot had been knocked down, turnover was just a few dollars short of $600,000. The tale of the tape for this auction is as follows:

Total Turnover	$596,470.20
Total Lots Offered	1847
Total Lots Sold	1130
Clearance Rate	61.18%
Average Lot Value	$432.66
# of Lots Sold above $10k	8

As is often the case for a Roxbury’s sale, the room was well-populated when the sale started, and as it continued throughout the day. The first major lot for the day was the Bell & Gardner penny token in good VF condition that was knocked down for around estimate. This is the second example of this rare and desirable Queensland token that has been offered so far this year, this was better quality than the example Noble had just a few weeks earlier.

There was a good range of predecimal mint rolls included in this sale, and although they’ve been very keenly chased in years past, they didn’t bring mad prices this time round. The clearance rate was solid, however the prices weren’t out of this world.

Just 3 of the 8 1923 halfpennies that were offered in this sale got away, which reflects just what the market is like for these coins at the moment. Buyers are able to pick and choose what they want at present, so we can conclude that if a 1923 halfpenny isn’t priced right at the moment, it won’t get away. The clearance rate for the rest of the pre-decimal coin session wasn’t flash at all, however there wasn’t a great deal of shock about that in the room I have to say. The most keenly contested coin was a solid 1915-H florin that was contested.

If the pre-decimal coins were hard work, the pre-decimal proofs were exponentially tougher. Of the 52 individual lots offered (some containing multiple coins mind you), just 18 sold. This shows that buyers of these coins are really demanding value at present - it surprises me just how much gas has come out of this market in recent months. Even problem-free and PCGS-graded coins are finding it hard to command the same money at auction that they were bringing just 6-12 months ago. To put this in perspective, a really attractive (raw) 1955 Perth copper pair made just $5,000 hammer. The errors and decimal varieties were popular as expected, however not crazy as they sometimes are.

Moving into the foreign coins and notes, the key item was the proof 1826 crown that was on the cover - it made $12,200 nett against a $12,000 estimate. A rare Staits Settlements $50 note from 1925 made $15,616 nett against a $6,000 estimate. The holder this note was in showed that it came from an ex Rare Coin Company vendor, so we can only hope they didn’t pay too much for it.

The Australian gold coins were rather quiet. I know a lot of collectors that are active in this segment of the market, and I know they’re keen to get new coins, however if their specific requirements aren’t met, they just ain’t interested at all. That may explain the 30 odd % clearance rate for this section of the auction - the coins were either reserved higher than the market is prepared to pay, or the coins didn’t have the original surfaces that buyers required if they’re to pay a premium price. A few coins were chased however, which shows the market is still there if conditions are right.

The early evening session started off with two Type II Adelaide Pounds, only one of which got away to a new home. The price was within range for the current market for these coins, so no surprises there. The Australian proof and pattern coins were quiet also - I was disappointed the 1916 specimen set didn’t get away, as it really is an attractive and historic set in great quality. There were 4 1930 pennies in this sale - each appeared to be estimated in line with the market, so I was surprised when only one of them found a new home on the night. The gold Swan dollar remained unsold by the end of the night, it seemed to be reserved just a little higher than the market was prepared to pay.

The paper and polymer notes that were offered next were quite active, however they certainly hit a wall when it came to the specimen notes. Of the 15 specimen notes offered on the night, only 1 sold. This is despite the reserves being at or below the recent range for similar notes, so it shows a lack of confidence on the part of those ready on the night. The pre-federation note section was extremely quiet - of the 16 pre-fed notes offered, just 5 sold (3 lots of those were for notes with a West Australian domicile I might add!). This is an incredibly tough area of the market to trade at the moment - values don’t seem to be settling into any kind of a regular range anywhere at all. Notes that sell in Sydney or Brisbane don’t sell in Melbourne, and vice versa. Bold buyers in the meantime will be able to get some great value for money if they take action where other buyers fear to tread.

The Australian pre-decimal notes were also rather quiet, but were more active earlier in the session. Just 67 of the 120 notes offered were sold on the night, which isn’t a clearance rate anybody is particularly interested in. Long stretches of lots were passed in without interest being expressed, so it’s clear that buyers were being picky here also. The star note section had some solid notes in it, however the price action didn’t match the quality. Of the 12 notes offered, just 4 sold on the night.

That was largely it for Roxbury’s 100th auction - good, bad and indifferent all at once. It’ll be interesting to see if Downie’s 327 is any different.

Downie 327 Preview

This auction opens with more than 1,000 individual lots of Australian decimal coins - that’s more than half the total number of lots that are seen in some auctions, so should surely give decimal coin buyers something to sink their teeth into. There are a couple of scarcer items included that have enduring appeal, so I have no doubt wholesale and retail buyers will be active here. There does seem to be a good range of paper and polymer decimal notes included in the next section, however it’ll be important to check just whether the quality of the lots offered matches their descriptions. The next section of real interest contains a few Hay Internment notes that look to be in acceptable condition, these will need viewing also.

The “serious” coin section is headlined by a 6-coin set of 1938 proof coins that are featured on the covers of the catalogue. They look great, however when I see attractive (and PCGS graded) coins passed in via other auction houses for modest sums, it doesn’t give me confidence that a strong hammer price will be achieved. It will be interesting to see how the 60-odd QEII proof lots fare after the disinterest exhibited in Brisbane.

Although there are several hundred Commonwealth coins included in this sale, there doesn’t seem to be anything spectacular included if the images, grades and estimates are any guide. Regarding the pre-decimal notes listed, if the grades, images and estimates are any guide, some active bidding should ensue. Just whether the notes match up with buyer expectations remains to be seen however.

Downie 327 doesn’t look to be a record-setter from what I can see, however some detective work by bidders that view and attend is sure to pay dividends.

Two Auctions in Two Cities in Three Weeks - Noble 117 and Roxbury's 100

andrew — Sat, 14 Apr 2018 09:00:33 +0800

The upcoming month features two auctions in two different cities in two different states - April 17th sees Noble Numismatics kick off their 117th sale in Sydney, while May 5th sees Roxbury’s hold their 100th auction. Both auctions contain material that is sure to get collectors across the country talking and getting their wallets out.

Noble Numismatics 117 - Headlined by Australia’s Most Valuable Circulating Coin

The excitement surrounding this auction was kicked off a few weeks back when the Australasian Coin & Banknote (CAB) Magazine announced that Noble 117 would feature a “fresh” 1920 Sydney sovereign - Australia’s most valuable circulating gold coin, and one of the great rarities of the British Commonwealth.

Very few of these coins are in private hands (only 5 at this stage), and amazingly for a circulating Australian coin, I believe there are less in public collections than the number held privately. An itemised list of the coins held in The National Collection by the Royal Australian Mint is not publicly available, however I presume one of these is held by it. Records of the Dixson Library (part of the State Library of NSW) indicate that one is held there.

The reasons why so few of these incredibly rare coins are known to exist were brought to light by Barrie Winsor via an auction catalogue for St James in 2014, where he explained that they were struck by the Sydney Mint for a NSW Member of Parliament as gifts for his family. Although the Royal Mint Annual Report for 1920 shows that 360,000 sovereigns were struck at the Sydney Mint in 1920, it is thought that no more than 9, and more likely 7, 1920 Sydney sovereigns were ever struck.

Although this is undoubtedly a rare and historic coin, several examples have changed hands in the past decade - 2009; 2012; 2014 and 2015. Prices have ranged between $844,000 for the Specimen held by the Quartermaster Collection to $1,216,391 for the example held by the Bentley collection.

There is little doubt that the market for Australian gold coins has eased since the auction of the Quartermaster Collection was held in 2009, so it will be interesting to see whether the increase in the known population of this by 25% has an impact on the allure that this coin has.

One of the dangers of an auction containing such a celebrity as the 1920 Sydney sovereign is that it completely overshadows all else that the auction contains - there are nearly 5,000 other lots in this auction however, much of it will appeal to collectors of different stripes.

Tuesday Early Sessions

Among the normal batches of circulated pre-decimal coins and decimal proofs etc, the early sessions on Tuesday contain a few surprises - prime among them are a few fairly extreme decimal error coins that I haven’t seen examples of before. I’ve seen double-struck coins and off-metal planchet errors, however not these particular ones (as well as a double-sided $1 coin).

There are less coins from New Zealand and German New Guinea than is usually offered, ditto with the tradesman’s tokens. There are some very attractive convict tokens in with the section covering the medals and medallions, it’ll be interesting to see how they fare.

The miscellaneous section contains a rather large number of imported and hand-made coin cabinets - these really are what the discerning gentleman would use to store his coins in his library. There are more antique coin cabinets here than I’ve ever seen in one place before, so I can only imagine what the store-room at Noble Numismatics looks like right at the moment. These cabinets won’t appeal to all collectors, however I don’t see any problems with them getting away at all.

It’s clear from the Australian gold sovereigns and halves on offer that several collections of fresh material are being served up from several different vendors. I fully expect these coins to be pored over by collectors and dealers who are looking to find any unidentified rare varieties, or coins that will grade well under the PCGS standard.

The same can be said for the Australian Commonwealth copper and silver coins - there will be a lot of viewing to be done by those collectors and dealers that are active in this area, I have no doubt some of the prices realised will reflect competition among those that took the time to view.

Tuesday Evening Session

This session starts off with a good range of proclamation and colonial coins - there doesn’t look to be anything spectacular contained among them, however this is an active area of the market so I expect they’ll sell well. They are followed by a cheaper Holey Dollar and Dump - I say cheaper despite the fact the Dollar has a pre-sale estimate of $40,000. Although this is still a huge sum of money for many people, it literally is a fraction of what the very best examples bring. This says to me the coin is on the market, so it should get away.

There are a number of Type II Adelaide Pounds that follow - one of which looks to have been considerably under-appraised and under-estimated by the auctioneer. These coins have been hard work in recent months, however the better example still looks to be rather light on.

The ”better” Australian gold sovereigns and halves that follow again show that a wide range of coins are being offered from several different vendors. Unlike just a few years ago, collectors and dealers have again a wide range of coins to peruse and choose from. It’ll be interesting to see how the market rates these coins - they were last handled “back in the day” when the PCGS standard wasn’t even conceived of as being relevant here in Australia, so just how many coins are rated by bidders as being desirable under the new standard will be interesting to see.

A series of 1916 specimen silver and copper coins follow - the diagnostics that the most discerning collectors use to attribute these coins as specimens may or may not be evident with a physical examination, I expect the prices realised will bear this out.

The main section of the “better” Commonwealth coins again contains a wide range of coins from old collections that haven’t been on the market during the period that the PCGS standard has been popular, which means I expects we’ll see a small number of coins at least that are identified by the collectors and dealers with a keen eye for high grade and popular varieties.

Wednesday Sessions

Noble seems to be the go-to auction house for large collections of British coins within Australia, this auction contains more British coins than we’ve seen offered for some time. The inclusion of a few comprehensive old-time collections means there is a great range of material on offer here. British coins from the 18th - early 20th century are as popular as they are around the world, so these should be keenly contested. Noble 117 is lighter in British gold however, despite the inclusion of some late 19th and early 20th century proof sets that will no doubt sell strongly.

The range of copper and silver coins from other countries around the world is just as comprehensive as the British, there really is some exotic and attractive material on offer. The depth on offer in this section is reflected by the fact the session runs right into late Wednesday night, which I don’t recall happening previously.

Thursday Sessions

World, New Zealand and Australian banknotes are on offer from Thursday afternoon and evening, given the material on offer here I’d suggest the specialists will be out in force to review the notes available. There is not the same depth of inventory being offered in this sale in the pre-Federation note series as we’ve seen previously, nor in the pre-decimal note section, however there are some specimens; star replacement notes and errors available that are seldom seen.

This is going to be an exciting sale, I expect there will be many excited collectors heading into it, and a few vendors with positive expectations. It will be interesting to see just what level of interest there is in the fresh example of Australia’s most desirable circulating gold coin - it has quite a long way to go from the published pre-sale estimate to a record price, however I think the market will be satisfied if it sells within range to begin with - anything above that will be taken as being as very positive for the market indeed.

Roxbury’s Auction #100 - Stronger in Sections than Noble Numismatics

In many ways, Australia’s more remote capital cities often play Cinderella to Sydney and Melbourne, however that certainly shouldn’t be the case when it comes to the Brisbane auction that follows Noble Numismatics 117. Roxbury’s have turned out a major sale to rack up their century, in some sections it is in fact stronger than the material seen in the much larger Noble sale.

The first few hundred lots or so are made up of what can be loosely called “exonumia” - numismatic items that are not coins or notes. Think medals, tokens, chits and slips and that is what makes up the first 150 lots or so of this auction. This section is highlighted by a rare Queensland token issued by Bell & Gardner, it is a rarity that is seldom seen.

The cheaper Commonwealth coin section contains a large number of rolls, perhaps more than have been seen on the market for some time. The dates aren’t particularly rare, however the PCGS devotees don’t always concentrate on history and rarity alone, so I fully expect those lots to be chased by those having a tilt at getting them graded with the hope that a condition rarity emerges.

There are 300 individually-lotted Predecimal coins in the section that follows, which is a good run of dates, denominations and grades. The grades and estimates look to be conservative, which bodes well for activity here.

There are some quite rare decimal errors coins hot on the heels of the predecimal, they haven’t been seen in a while and look to be estimated lower than market, so there should be some keen bidding on them.

The world note section is highlighted by a range of New Zealand specimen notes, and a quite rare issued note from the Straits Settlements (now Singapore). World specimen notes of all stripes remain popular with collectors across South East Asia, so they although local collectors may treat them with the contempt that comes with familiarity, if the notes are on the market they are sure to sell.

The Straits note will no doubt draw in interest from overseas, if such collectors are aware of the sale. There’s no reason a “provincial” Australian auction should draw less interest than one held in either Sydney or Melbourne, however the reality is collectors overseas may not know to check the Roxbury catalogue for such items - the price realised should show whether that happened or not.

There is a good quantity of Australian gold coins in this sale, no 1920 sovereign to be sure, but there are some scarcer dates and others that look to be estimated to sell. The proclamation coins included next look quite attractive, the Adelaide Pounds appear to be fully valued. The 1916 specimen set of silver coins that was offered some time back by Roxbury’s has been included again - it was passed in last time only due to a slight weakness in demand, so there were no question regarding whether the set was in fact a specimen or not. The other proofs included look to be fully valued - the Goose Dollar seems to have a very high estimate on it compared to what other examples have brought in recent years.

Then in the banknote section, there is a wide range of decimal notes, and far more decimal specimen notes than are seen in the Noble Numismatics auction. Ditto with the Australian pre-Federation notes, there are far more in the Roxbury auction than will be offered in Sydney, there are proofs, specimens and issued notes to boot.

The Australian pre-decimal notes appear to have been selected for their quality, there looks to be some very attractive items included here. The star note section should be interesting, as this area of the market seems to be trying to find a fresh level at the moment. Varied material in front of interested collectors should make for transparent prices.

All in all, even though Roxbury’s follows Noble Numismatics and is in Brisbane rather than Sydney, there is plenty of material on offer to ensure it’ll be attended by anyone with an interest in Australian numismatics.

IAG Auction 87 - A Solid Result

andrew — Sat, 31 Mar 2018 10:40:50 +0800

IAG auctions in recent years are often half done before the first lot is offered - dozens of bidders have lodged many hundreds of bids, meaning the vast majority of the sale can be “covered” long before the doors are opened to the auction room.

It may be however that the bidders who make the effort to attend are either more committed with their bids or get caught up in the heady atmosphere of the event, because despite the strong foundation laid by the internet bidders in this most recent auction, the room and phone bidders still made their presence felt.

Here are the headline numbers for IAG 87, and although the clearance rate might be a touch on the light side, that isn’t without explanation as we’ll see. The relatively high average lot value shows there was confidence in certain sections of the market on the day.

IAG 87 Results	Nett Turnover	# Sold	# Above $10k
Total	$773,050.56	644	8
Lots offered		830
Clearance Rate		77.59%
Average Lot Value		$983.93

The 8 lots that had a hammer price more than $10,000 were:

Lot #	Item	Hammer	Nett
177	R19 Superscribed £1 Fine	$16,000	$19,520
178	1915 Rainbow £1 good Fine	$12,000	$14,640
180	1923 Miller Collins £1 R22bL Very Good	$11,300	$13,786
400	1966 Type I Specimen Set of Banknotes	$27,500	$33,550
401	1992 ~ 1996 1st Generation Specimen Set of Banknotes	$37,500	$45,750
499	1935 Proof Penny	$14,000	$17,080
550	1933 Shilling PCGS MS65	$18,000	$21,960
652	1949 Five Pounds Coombs / Watt R#47M 1000000 Serials good Very Fine	$13,500	$16,470

The sale opened briskly with the world coins, the prices made for the German New Guinea coins in particular were stronger than I’ve seen comparable coins make at auction internationally. The proclamation coins that followed were similarly active - a low clearance rate wasn’t a concern at all in this section.

The next series were the predecimal coins that were both affordable and mid-range when it comes to quality. There were no particularly remarkable results there, they were in line with what similar coins are currently making elsewhere.

The stakes were raised with the next section of pre-federation banknotes. This was a broad offering of 24 different notes - a good mix of proofs, specimens and issued notes. 13 of these notes sold, which I’d suggest is a positive result, even though it’s lower than you’d think for an effective session. A number of the lots that were passed in had reserves higher than what I thought the items warranted, which indicates that although this area of the market is finding some traction, buyers are only comfortable when staying with values at the lower end of their current range.

Pre-Decimal Banknotes - Patchy With Sections of Strength

Results for the pre-decimal notes that followed looked good but were patchy - it was very positive to see some historic and rare (and valuable) notes get away however. Although not all of those more valuable items got away, that can happen in an auction in any stage of the market. The clearance rate of around 67% for the pre-decimal notes reflected a good level of active interest from discerning collectors. Check the list of high value lots above and you can see the historic Superscribed R19, as well as the Rainbow pound both went to new owners. The result for the R22bL showed that one of these hadn’t been seen for a while - it was fought over by more than a few keen collectors.

Australian gold sovereigns and halves followed, and this is where the sell-through rate lifted. There weren’t any particularly spectacular items here, not for quality; history or rarity, however 80% of those offered got away. Results for the better Commonwealth coins that followed eased off, confirming that this is now a tough area of the market for vendors. As the first generation of Australian collectors attacked their PCGS registry sets with gusto, values for Australian pre-decimal coins have been incredibly strong over the past 5 years or so. This activity appears to have settled to sustainable levels, and values now largely reflect the number of new collectors entering the market, as well as the number of collectors retiring.

Make no mistake, where the grade of a coin reflected a rarity that forced collectors to compete up to the retail value for a coin (or higher), that’s exactly what happened. The fact is however there are far fewer coins these days that have those characteristics in the current market.

The results for the pre-decimal proof coins showed just how tough this area of the market is at the moment. Just 55% of the coins offered up here got away, which shows they had to be either top quality or dirt cheap for someone to get in and consider buying them. I can see the lesser coins here plumbing new lows in the months ahead as a result, as that is the only way the backlog of unsold inventory can get away.

The paper and polymer decimal notes were really active across the board - first and last prefixes, sets, NPA products and regular ol’ notes were all popular with bidders. As always, the error and variety sections were both heavily contested - more than a few items made prices that were more than a few thousand dollars apiece.

Wer all know from our own lives that some (most!) days in the office are unspectacular - we get good work done without incident or fanfare, and that was exactly how it went down at IAG 87.

Downie's Auction 326 and the Temporal Landmark Factor

andrew — Wed, 07 Feb 2018 05:47:34 +0800

I had a new term revealed to me earlier this year - “temporal landmark”, which refers to the landmarks we declare in the passage of time, whether that be the start to a new year, a birthday, anniversary or even a work-week or something as simple as lunchtime.

It turns out that these landmark events (close of business; last day of the work week or a birthday) can often be used to set the start or halt of some habit or pattern of behaviour, such as giving up smoking or starting regular exercise. A number of authors have determined that we human beings will hold off making certain changes to our behaviour until these temporal landmark events have passed.

I mention this because the Australian numismatic market can often take a kick up in the new year, often for no logical reason at all!

The number of days between September 1st and December 1st is largely the same as that between November 1st and February 1st, however there’s no doubt that after a reasonable break in activity over the New Year period, us collectors can take back to normal business with a zest that wasn’t around just a few short months ago. It can be due to impatient vendors that have been waiting across the break; sheer boredom or cash burning a hole in the pockets of buyers, however this theory will be put to the test when Downie’s Auction 326 takes place in late February.

Just shy of 4,000 lots are included, it looks to be an active sale.

The featured items on the cover include a pattern Goose dollar in gold, as well as some rarer pre-decimal proof coins.

A range of slightly more interesting decimal coins (errors and varieties) are included on the first day, whereas the older and more historic coins and notes are lined up across Wednesday.

An interesting dump; Adelaide Ingot electrotype and several appealing Sydney Mint half sovereigns are included, followed shortly by some quite scarce pre-decimal proof coins. The pre-decimal coins don’t appear to have too many lots that will jump out at potential buyers, however there is enough there to keep many a collector happy.

The pre-federation banknote section holds more notes than we’ve seen in a number of recent Downie sales, so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare - the few prefed specimen notes that have been in previous Downie sales have sold relatively strongly.

There are a number of pre-decimal notes that have been described as being exceptional quality, and although they aren’t the rarest notes getting around, they are still quite scarce and collectible in top grade.

The British coin section appears to have the most depth out of any session in the sale, as there are a number of really attractive items included. Demand for such coins is quite strong in the UK at present, so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare.

Downie’s are renown (notorious?) for having a vast range of collectible “junque” in each sale, and this auction is no exception. There are hundreds of lots of cigarette cards, militaria and even stage memorabilia, all compelling in their own way. Whether the small lot of North Korean badges draws some interest in the current geopolitical climate remains to be seen!

I don’t see anything in this sale that jumps out at me as being incredible value or an exceptional opportunity, however as you need to be in it to win it, I expect I’ll head along.

I’ll then see if the temporal landmark theory holds any water - this is the first major numismatic sale for 2018 after all.

Rob Jackman from the Rare Coin Company Sentenced to 4 Years 2 Months Jail for Fraud

andrew — Tue, 06 Feb 2018 05:51:00 +0800

Big news in the Australian numismatic industry came out on February 5th 2018 - the former Managing Director of the Rare Coin Company, Mr Rob Jackman, was sentenced to 4 years 2 months jail for fraud.

News articles in the West Australian print media explained that “...following 21 complaints to police, it was established the stock had been sold and 136 investors had not received their funds between September 2011 and July 2013."

136 different people being affected over a 2 year period was no minor infraction in the eyes of the judge, who stated that “It was so difficult for you to accept your business had failed and instead you turned to dishonesty. What remains inexplicable is that you kept this going for two years, lying and taking their money.”

Judge Wager made Jackman eligible for parole after serving half the sentence, and ordered restitution be paid to the victims. Jackman declared bankruptcy several years ago, and is recorded as only having $6,000 in savings, so how restitution will be made for the $1.8 million in losses suffered by the clients the police took action over was not made clear.

At least this event does something to close the book on this chapter in the history of the numismatic market in this country - it doesn’t help make up for the losses that so many people have racked up over the past 5 years or so, however it may give some people some sense of justice or closure.

A further article in the local media in the South West of WAincludes several more comments made in the sentencing hearing by the defence lawyer, who explained the circumstances of the demise of this company fairly clearly - "Mr Illari said the company had grown “exponentially over a period of time with no review of the business model."

"Defence lawyer Bruno Illari said Jackman became overwhelmed by investors “clambering” to call in a coin buyback guarantee the defendant had offered."

"To try to dig his way out of these problems, Mr Jackman tried, unwisely as it turned out, to expand the business rather than contract it.”

Unwisely indeed.

2017 is Rounded Out by Noble Numismatics 116 - $3.25 million Over 4 Days

andrew — Fri, 15 Dec 2017 11:51:42 +0800

Although a number of fairly short and sweet online numismatic sales have been held over the past week, it's nearly a month since the last major numismatic auction in Australia was held for 2017 - Noble Numismatics 116 from November 21st.

As Noble's are known for, the sale spanned 4 days and nights, which is no small event at all. Due to a few other events competing for my attention, I didn't cover as many of the sessions in this sale as I normally would, however the juggernaut clearly rolled on regardless.

The headline statistics for the sale are a stated turnover of $3.25 million and a clearance rate of 85% - well within the parameters of what we'd expect for a "decent" sale.

To my mind, the early sessions on the first day were highlighted by the inclusion of one of the Perth Mint's premium products from the past few years - a Kimberley Sunset 2015 2oz Pink Gold Proof High Relief Coin.

Coins such as this marked a decided tack by the Perth Mint to tap into the premium market for tangible heirlooms - it had a mintage of just 440 coins, was struck from a very attractive 22 carat "pink" gold, and was highlighted by an Argyle pink diamond set into the reverse design.

It has to be said that everything about this coin is fantastic - the local Australian theme, the balance in the reverse design, the way the innovative alloy and diamond extended the theme and design, as well as the packaging. I have no doubt at all that anyone that bought one of these coins on the primary market would have really enjoyed their "unboxing, however it'll be interesting to see if the price realised for the coin in Noble Numismatics 116 is repeated in future - the coin made no more than 20% above "spot", which means the vendor was only able to recoup about 50% of their purchase price.

The reality of that reception on the secondary market is in sharp contrast to the excitement and frenzy that accompanied the coin's release, however it'll be interesting to see whether that is where future coins will sit, or if there will be some secondary market support for them to a higher level. An innovative and attractive coin such as this has to be worth more than it's metal value, surely?!?!

The very next section of the sale featured a range of silver proof coins struck by the Perth Mint for a network of innovative businesses based in Sydney that commissioned several series of silver proof coins featuring exotic reverse designs such as dragons, dogs and predators. I understand that some of those companies have since entered administration and are under investigation by the ATO for GST fraud, so the sale of the silver coins in this Noble Numismatics sale were no doubt aimed at replenishing the coffers of the liquidators before they wrapped their task up. These companies (the liquidated rather than the liquidators) are also thought to have donated about $120,000 between them to the NSW branch of the Australian Labor Party by the way, a topical subject in itself!

Although the clearance rate for these coins was reasonably high, the prices realised were quite poor, showing that the art of marketing coins at scale is not without risk.

The earlier sessions of the Australian gold coins were quite active - the clearance rate and prices realised reflected the current state of the market, with buyers happy to take up anything that offered value for the grade.

I didn't attend the next few sessions that featured the medals / medallions and the lesser Australian Commonwealth coins, however neither the catalogue nor the prices realised didn't yield any major surprises.

The evening coin session was fairly well attended, and was active as a result. One bidder that had been active earlier in the day seemed to have built up a head of steam, and made himself known in no short order!

The proclamation and colonial coins all moved onto new homes, that action seemed to have arrested when it came to the Adelaide Pound, which was passed in at what I thought was a fairly full reserve.

The rest of the Australian gold coins fared better, with a good clearance rate for coins that were "on the market". A truly affordable 1855 half sovereign sold for more than double the published estimate, and although the cynical among us may well be correct in saying that reflected the obvious gamesmanship inherent in setting such a low reserve for what is Australia's rarest circulating coin, it does show that there is clear support for Australian gold coins, even if they are well worn.

At the other end of the quality scale, an attractive 1892 Melbourne Jubilee Head sovereign made what has to be a record price for that date at auction - $3,697 nett. I understasnd that has since made a solid grade with PCGS, so the determined bidder clearly had determination and good fortune on their side.

The 1926 Sydney sovereign on offer made a higher price than what comparable examples have trade for in recent years, which was a solid result for this key date that has a wonderful social history.

That same determined bidder went onto push competition aside to acquire the first four pre-decimal proof coins on offer, with mixed levels of value gained. A number of those coins had been offered previously without success, so it may be that some depth is returning to this area of the market.

Although the attendance in the room for the Commonwealth coins didn't indicate that a whole lot of exciting coins were to be offered, when it came to it there was some spirited bidding on certain coins.

A 1916 penny with a lot of original red colour across both sides was knocked down for just shy of $5,000, which certainly woke the room up. A 1925 penny graded MS62BN by PCGS made just shy of $6,000, which seemed quite low by comparison!

Demand for 1930 pennies remains within their current range, there was also some keen interest in the 1931 dropped 1 Indian pennies, showing there are more than a few collectors that appreciate the history and rarity of that variety.

The rest of that session passed without much fanfare - it surprises me where this area of the market is at right now, there is still keen competition for condition rarities, however a lot of the puff has clearly come out of the level of the market just below that, and further. This is of course great news for collectors that are looking to build a collection of attractive coins on a budget.

The evening note session opened to some expectation - attendees have been turning up with their cards close to their chest in recent sales, only for spradic bedlam to break out when really key items are offered up.

There weren't too many pre-federation notes in this sale, however nearly all of those that were included sold. I know more than a few collectors that are now active in buildinng specialised collections of Austalia's paper money pre 1910, each with their own historic or geographical theme. Activity is picking up as a result.

The pre-decimal notes that followed had some real quality throughout - the Superscribed note was far better quality than most we've seen over the past decade, I was disappointed to miss out on it but we can't buy everything eh? Demand remains solid for good pre-decimal notes, the £50 that rounded out this section made a strong price relative to the current book value, which is saying something!

The pre-decimal and decimal specimen notes followed, which is an area of the market that used to be tightly controlled by a few wholesale hands, and is now open to all and sundry. Prices have indeed come back, however this auction confirms that liquidity is back, albeit at low levels. The two pre-decimal specimens that were included were a very seldom-seen Cerutty Collins 5/- dating to 1916, and a gold-bearing £10 from 1925. Both sold, which was great to see.

The decimal specimens were patchy - I haven't seen a 1966 presentation set sell for $20,000 hammer for many, many years, so I hope the buyer was stoked with their purchase. The remaining results for the decimal specimen notes reflected their availability and desirability.

I didn't attend the remaining sessions for the world coins, ancient coins or militaria, but I understand they went according to plan.

The Australian numismatic market seems to be progressing well at the moment - we've certainly moved on from the doldrums and despair evident from a few short years ago, I expect we've cleared the decks ready for the next phase of growth - just whether that will happen at some stage in 2018 remains to be seen.

The Royal Bank of Australia - a Trading Name With an Enduring Appeal

andrew — Sat, 11 Nov 2017 12:00:43 +0800

The "Royal Bank of Australia" is a trading name that has been chosen no less than three times over the past 180 years - twice by legitimate businesses (the second more legitimate than the first), and most recently (September 2017) by a budding "sovereign citizen" who is keen to test the legitimacy of the Australian legal system.

Royal Bank of Australia #1 - Benjamin Boyd’s Private Bank (1842 ~ 1849)

The 19th century entrepreneur Benjamin Boyd has been described as a “swashbuckling entrepreneur” in the same vein as some of the “buccaneers” that followed him 140 years later - Christopher Skase; Alan Bond and Robert Holmes a Court.

Ben Boyd (1801 - 1851) was a British stockbroker who foresaw great profits in the colonies of Australia. He raised £200,000 in funds from a wide range of Scottish investors, bought several steamships (a relatively new technology at that time), and embarked for New South Wales.

Boyd's arrived in NSW with a higher profile than he had at the time of his departure: “The arrival of Benjamin Boyd in Australia marked the beginning of a period of hitherto unknown commercial adventuring his exit, and subsequent mysterious disappearance, occasioned much conjecture, and, incidentally, cost the Government and a section of the business community of Sydney a considerable sum of money.”

Despite its name, the Royal Bank of Australia Episode 1 has been described as "...never having functioned as an ordinary bank, and was probably never meant to. Instead, Boyd himself became the bank’s chief debtor. From the first, he used its funds as if they were his own to invest in New South Wales." A paper published by RBA (the Reserve Bank of Australia) staff on the history of banking in Australia also states that "The bank, formed in 1839, never carried out more than cursory banking operations."

Boyd had decided to invest the funds of the Royal Bank in three industries: steamships, whaling and squatting. Without wanting to steal the thunder of any of the four books written on his life and times, Boyd was spectacularly unsuccessful in each of these areas.

Royal Bank of Australia #2 - (1888 ~ 1927)

As Benjamin Boyd had died in Guadalcanal in 1851, when the Royal Bank of Australia was restructured in 1888, it was completely free of any link to a buccaneer or swashbuckling of any kind. The second iteration of the Royal Bank of Australia proved to be far more successful than the first as a result - it survived the 1893 banking crisis, and merged with the English, Scottish & Australian Bank in 1927, which is now part of the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).

Royal Bank of Australia #3 - (2017?)

The trading name "Royal Bank of Australia” proved its enduring appeal yet again when it rose to public notice via a court case in Canberra in September 2017. It appears that a chap from the Northern Territory was charged with stealing more than $3,000 worth of stock from a number of Woolworths supermarkets across Canberra.

John Krieg Ashlee Russell (44) and his accomplices allegedly filled their trolley with groceries, then when at the checkout handed over a "Royal Bank of Australia” voucher as payment, and left with the items.

In the subsequent court hearing, Russell claimed to have come to the ACT to use the vouchers to test the lawfulness of his alternative system, and further that he was not an Australian citizen, and did not recognise the Australian courts.

After completing his shopping rounds, Russell posted the AFP a letter stating he would be visit AFP headquarters, which he did later that week (armed with a "dossier" of information), at which point he was duly arrested.

Whether Mr Russell is linked to this website providing information on the Royal Bank of Australia or this website providing information on the Australian Imperial Crown Corporation is yet to be determined.

Noble Auction 115 - 4 Days At Close to $70,000 per Hour

andrew — Wed, 09 Aug 2017 04:11:49 +0800

We wouldn’t ordinarily frame the passage of time in terms of dollars and cents, however if we divide the total turnover in the last Noble auction by the number of hours it took for the whole auction to run to completion, the sales activity works out to have gone down at around $70,000 per hour. Four days in the room plus another one actually viewing the stock beforehand makes for a long week - it can sometimes feel a lot longer than $70,000 per hour.

An auction of this size is by necessity split into numerous different sections and sessions, and not all of them are as active or keenly contested as each other of course. Overall however, $3.22 million in sales certainly looks to be yet another respectable result. Drilling down into each different section shows that a strong headline result doesn’t depict the whole story, and there is a lot more to the Australian numismatic market than meets the eye. Here are the major statistics from this auction that you’ll want to know:

Noble Auction 115 Summary
Lots Offered	5,138
Lots Sold	3,889
Turnover (including buyer's premium)	$3,229,026
Clearance Rate	75.69%
# Lots above $10k	23
Av. Lot Value	$830.30

There are a couple of points to take away from these results:

1. More than 5,000 lots offered - this was a massive auction relative to others held recently in Australia;

2. Close to 4,000 lots sold - not everything got away - 1,249 unsold lots is more than are in most other auctions!;

3. 75.68% clearance rate - this was reasonably low in percentage terms relative to others held in recent times, however could be a reflection of the sheer scope of material included;

4. 23 lots valued greater than $10,000 sold - this is many more than some auctions move in a year;

5. Average lot value of $830.30 - again, this is higher than most auctions held in recent times, and has no doubt been skewed by the higher value lots listed below.

Items Valued Greater than $10,000 Sold Via Noble Auction 115
Lot	Item	Hammer	Nett	Area
1236	1814 Holey Dollar, plugged Fine	$44,000	$52,470	Colonial Coins
1237	1813 Dump, good VF	$16,000	$19,080	Colonial Coins
1247	1856 Sovereign good EF	$12,500	$14,906	Australian Gold Coins
1252	1860 Sovereign, Uncirculated	$12,500	$14,906	Australian Gold Coins
1264	1856 Half Sovereign, Choice Uncirculated	$25,000	$29,813	Australian Gold Coins
1266	1858 Sydney Half Sovereign, RR error, good VF	$23,000	$27,428	Australian Gold Coins
1268	1862 Sydney Half Sovereign, Uncirculated	$10,000	$11,925	Australian Gold Coins
1270	1866 Sydney Half Sovereign, Uncirculated	$12,500	$14,906	Australian Gold Coins
1350	1896 Melbourne Proof Half Sovereign, FDC	$50,000	$59,625	Proof Coins
1352	1921 Pattern Kookaburra Penny Type 12	$20,000	$23,850	Proof Coins
1353	1927 Canberra Proof Florin	$10,000	$11,925	Proof Coins
1413	1932 Florin Uncirculated	$11,000	$13,118	Commonwealth Coins
1459	1930 Penny about VF	$18,000	$21,465	Commonwealth Coins
1460	1930 Penny good Fine	$16,000	$19,080	Commonwealth Coins
1461	1930 Penny good Fine	$16,000	$19,080	Commonwealth Coins
1884	Great Britain 1937 Gold Proof Set	$12,000	$14,310	British Coins
2733	United States 1883 Hawaii Dollar, Choice Uncirculated	$10,000	$11,925	World Coins
3913	West Australian Bank Issued One Pound 1897 EF	$26,000	$31,005	Pre-Federation Banknotes
3996	1918 Ten Pounds Fine	$12,500	$14,906	Pre-Decimal Banknotes
3999	1943 Consecutive Run of 30 Ten Pounds Uncirculated	$25,000	$29,813	Pre-Decimal Banknotes
4162	Alexander the Great Gold Distater	$16,500	$19,676	Ancient Coins
4654	Celtic Britain Gold Stater 25 BC about EF	$10,000	$11,925	Ancient Coins
4966	Group of 5 Medals Inc. Military Cross to AIF Lieutenant	$32,000	$38,160	Military Medals

Day Sessions - Australian Coins

There wasn’t a lot to speak of in the early coin sessions - the tokens, error coins and such that are usually seen first up wasn’t as strong as in previous sales. There were so many Australian gold and predecimal coins in this sale that the pre-evening sessions contained a lot more coins than usual. The clearance rate for the early predecimal session showed that there was little interest in silver coins that were expected to “no grade” with PCGS - a reasonably high percentage were passed in, more than I’ve seen in any comparable session in recent months. This was less the case for the copper coins, while prices for pre-decimal “mint” rolls of Uncirculated coins were quite strong indeed. Some dealers and collectors will punt on 1 or 2 coins in a batch being graded at a condition rarity level, which pays for all the others - it was great to see some competitive action on them.

Evening Session - Australian Coins

Moving onto the evening session for the coins, there was some broad-based interest in the proclamation and colonial coins - bids were coming from dealers and collectors on the floor, as well as postal bids and via the internet. Prices weren’t setting any records, however activity was quite healthy indeed. Liquidity for the Colonial Holey Dollars and Dumps in this sale was better than in previous auctions, perhaps because the vendor/s were finally prepared to meet the market. Prices weren’t great, however that seems to be what’s required for certain coins at the moment.

I thought the gold coin sessions (both during the day and the evening) were really interesting - here was an offering of some of the best Australian sovereigns and half sovereigns that had been seen since the Quartermaster Collection was offered in 2009, and although 6 of those coins cracked my admittedly arbitrary $10,000 high water mark, their surfaces were such that I don’t see all (or even many) of them being included on the more competitive PCGS registry sets any time soon.

It really is remarkable when an incredible series of coins that have long been regarded as among the finest known examples of their date are left untouched by many of the most active buyers in the market. This really is a generational change that is unprecedented, and has a huge impact on how vendors and collectors need to operate in the current market if they’re to be responsible for achieving their own objectives. I saw so many coins that were quite acceptable to collectors and dealers just ten years ago get passed in or make a soft sales price because they don’t meet the criteria that PCGS has for surface quality.

The prime reason for that is that “back in the olden days” when all coins here were traded “raw” (and weren’t independently graded), there wasn’t the same imperative to only handle coins with original surfaces. There was a great deal of focus placed on the distinction between a mint-state coin and one with a bit of rub or wear, however clearly it wasn’t unusual for a mint-state coin to have some scuffing in the fields, or a hairline. Collectors back then could be excused for not knowing that this standard would be imposed in the coming years, however those of us that are active in the market today have no such excuse - whether you like buying slabbed coins or not, the reality is that coins with surface “issues” are harder to sell and fetch less money in today’s market.

We can see from the prices realised that gold coins that were valued at a modest premium over their melt value had no problems selling, however coins that were just one step above that level (i.e. anything ranging from a few hundred dollars to a few thousand above melt) really wasn’t popular if the surfaces weren’t beyond reproach.

There was one brief moment of excitement when it came to an 1856 half sovereign with the rare reverse type - the auctioneer hadn’t described it as such, nor was it estimated accordingly. As is the way with such things, it was the worst kept secret in the sale, and it ended up making ten times estimate from memory. Setting aside the excitement over the competitive bidding, the coin made what I thought was a very strong price, indicating that collector interest in Sydney half sovereign varieties remains quite keen.

The proof coins on offer clearly had them “on the market” (well, most of them anyways). Opportunistic buying could be seen on a number of the coins included, which is a great sign that a few people are prepared to take a punt on proofs when they get down to a level that offers value.

The evening session for the Commonwealth silver coins was a repeat of the action during the day - any coin that had an odd tone, a hairline or some scuffs was left well alone - there are more than a few gaps in the prices realised of this section of the catalogue.

The 1930 pennies included in this sale that were reserved in line with the current market had no issues being sold, the other two were a bit rich.

Day Sessions - British and World Coins

As always, the British and world coin sessions were quite active in this auction. The headline coin was a fine gold sovereign of Queen Elizabeth I in superlative condition - it really is amazing to see a large gold coin that is more than 450 years old still in incredible condition, however this coin was estimated (and presumably reserved) at full retail value, and was left alone as a result. There was spirited bidding on the other featured gold rarity - the 1937 gold proof set. Top quality examples of those coins bring big dollars when independently graded - this set made a strong price, without it being bananas.

Australian Banknotes

The evening session for the Australian banknotes was quite remarkable - if only for the fact there was a queue to get into the door! That hasn’t happened for many, many years, but may be a reflection of a lot of potential bidders wanting to register at the same time. There was a good number of people in the room to be sure, however they weren’t falling out the windows.

The queue (as well as the bidders on the internet and in the mail bid book) made for some really broad-based bidding - it has been some time since a room bidder has needed to swivel right the way around to see who they’re bidding against, however there were bids coming from all angles in that session. I don’t know that the notes on offer were particularly spectacular, however that didn’t deter many people from participating. The clearance rate for the predecimal notes was far better than for the equivalent coins, it’s been a long time since we could say that, no doubt at all.

Without crunching the numbers statistically, the clearance rate for the pre-federation notes certainly seemed to be better than in months past, and not only that but the demand was very broad based - bids were coming not just from those dealers that have been active in them over the past few years, but also from collectors via the mail and the internet. Specimens, proofs and issued notes all sold well, and while we have no reason to be skipping through the streets just yet, we’re now seeing prices that are better than any achieved since the demise of the Rare Coin Company (mid 2012), which has to be a real turning point.

The highlight of this session for mine was that for the West Australian Bank issued £1 note. Graded good EF, this note was informally mentioned as being ex the archives of Westpac Bank, and consequently from the Bank of NSW, and consequently the Western Australian Bank. Not only did the note have that impeccable provenance, it was in incredible quality. The most recent trading range for these notes is arguably between $15,000 and $20,000, and I was expecting to see it reach the higher end of that scale. It didn’t take too long for some enthusiastic bidders to push it up far above and beyond that mark - the price this note realised is pretty much in line with what a note achieved back in April 2010 - when the market was ticking along without a care in the world.

If this kind of activity continues, we can only conclude that the banknote market is regaining the ground that it has lost in the years since then. I was very pleased to see the action in the note session, it really was very heartening.

It was amazing to see a consecutive run of 30 £10 notes dating back to the middle of WWII - not only were these notes old, but they hadn’t been tampered with, which is incredible in itself. So many banknotes were pressed, flattened and generally dicked around with during the last boom that it is unusual to see one note remain as it was issued, let alone a run of them. The purchasing power of that batch of notes would have been incredible, I expect we’ll look back and say that the price realised was a bargain, however there clearly weren’t too many people prepared to throw down their cash on such a long-term play.

The decimal specimen notes offered were relatively weak, largely due to their condition in my opinion. Where there was confidence in the quality of the star notes on offer (either due to the provenance or research on their serial numbers), they made quite strong prices. Any stars that were sub-par and not estimated accordingly were left alone, which is hardly surprising.

Friday - Ancient Coins and Militaria

Ancient coins and militaria rounded out the week for Noble 115 - there were some world-class Greek, Roman and Celtic coins on offer, several of them brought strong prices. A historic group of five medals found a new home also, and while ancients and militaria might not be the most mainstream areas of collecting in Australia, strong prices in those areas still shows a solid appetite for tangible assets.

All up, I’d say Noble’s 115 was a success, even if no records were written and largely everything went to expectations. It’ll take a significant offering of fresh material, or some kind of “disruptive” macro event to shake things up, but in the meantime, it’s business as usual.

Noble 115 - Never Mind the Quality, Feel the Width!

andrew — Sat, 22 Jul 2017 05:01:01 +0800

There are very few collectors indeed that are prepared to disregard quality for a nanosecond, particularly in the age of registry set competitions. That said, if a collector were to judge the merit of the next Noble Numismatics auction, they’ll feel the width of the catalogue filling out at a massive 4cm - it could well be amongst the widest Noble catalogues ever issued! (One of the finest known) to paraphrase a much-used auction lot description.

The catalogue itself weighs more than 2.5 kilograms, so there can be no fear that Noble Numismatics was “the last of the big sales”.

Just like sale 114, sale 115 takes place over 4 days this coming week, from Tuesday to Friday. The sessions will be staged from 930am to at least 930pm, so do spare a thought for the auctioneer that needs to be as sharp as a tack for 48 hours. (Not consecutive and without sleep as many medical professionals are unfortunately required to do these days, but a challenging task nonetheless.)

This sale is filled with several collections across a range of fields that have been built by advanced collectors in their field, and who are now exiting the market for one reason or another.

This is particularly the case with the coins rather than the notes this time round. The early part of Tuesday is again characterised by a good quantity of Cook memorabilia, as it was last time round - expect to see keen competition from the very dedicated collectors in this field. The range of Australian and NZ tokens put up has been remarked upon, indicating that another old-time collection has been shaken out of the tree.

The range of proclamation and colonial coins is solid, even in the larger gold coins that are not often seen here. It is in the area of Australian gold coins that shows the most depth in this auction. I can count at least three distinct collections formed by advanced collectors, with varying degrees of completion and focus on quality. The interesting difference between the market for Australian gold coins now and say just 10-15 years ago, is that way back in the olden days before the PCGS grading standard became the benchmark, the vast majority of collectors simply aimed to add mint-state coins to their collections, and were not as insistent on cracker-jack quality as collectors are today. Further to that, there was far less focus on surface impairments then as there is now.

Many of the Australian gold coins recovered from the wreck of the Douro (a British mail steamer that sank off the coast of Portugal in 1882, with some 30,000 gold sovereigns on board) were cleaned once they reached shore. Yet other mint-state sovereigns can be heavily bag marked, or can have what PCGS might today regard as surface issues such as hairlines. So although there may well be more gold sovereigns and halves in the upcoming Noble Numismatics auction than we’ve seen since the Quartermaster Collection was put up for sale way back in September 2009, they are yet to be viewed via the PCGS grading filter. Some coins will win out, while others will no doubt be left behind, as has happened with all of the other Australian coins that have reached the market over the past five years.

That said, I expect we’ll see some good competition from dealers and collectors that are keen to pick up a good range of coins that we haven’t seen in a number of years. Offerings like this can actually kick some interest off in a market, it’ll be interesting to see how these coins impact the market.

There are some really nice-looking patterns and proofs featured in this sale - if their estimates are anything to go by, we could see the coins bid on in the same way they used to be when the market was strong - from a range of bidders in and out of the room, and well beyond the published estimate. Just whether the auctioneer has set out to build that kind of excitement into the auction or not remains to be seen. Moving onto the Commonwealth coins, there really is some depth in this section as well. I don’t know that there’s the quality here to really get the juices flowing for the registry set collectors, however for collectors that are simply keen on picking up coins with a good level of detail and without any obvious problems, this could be a good event for them.

Before and after the Australian notes are featured, there are a couple of named collections offered up in fields that aren’t exactly mainstream - British copper tokens and war medals. I won’t be keeping an eye on those sessions, however I expect given the quantity and quality of the items offered up, I do expect them to be active.

The Australian banknote session will perhaps be less exciting than the evening coin session, there probably isn’t the same type of material on offer. There are certainly more pre-federation notes offered up in this sale than there was in Downie’s last week, however the majority of them are black and white proofs, with a few really appealing items salted within them. Ditto with the pre-decimal notes, there are a couple of pieces that we haven’t seen on the market for quite some time, while the majority are going to appeal to the middle of the road collectors.

Interestingly, there is a very comprehensive set of polymer $5 notes offered in this section. Since September last year, the 1st generation series of polymer $5 notes is now complete of course, so this is perhaps the first time we will have seen a really comprehensive range of them offered up. The auctioneer describes the lot as “225 notes plus 54 test notes”, which is a very comprehensive collection when we consider they are all just one denomination! With an $18,000 published estimate, the vendor is clearly expecting there to be a few cashed-up note collectors that are interested in picking them up in one fell swoop, rather than acquiring them over time. This lot will be an interesting test, that is for sure.

With more than 5,000 lots offered over 4 days, Noble Numismatics 115 is certain to be a keenly attended sale, it will be interesting to see just how it all fares.

Downie's 324 - Cold Outside and Steady Inside

andrew — Sat, 22 Jul 2017 04:20:06 +0800

Downie’s numismatic auction # 324 wrapped up last Thursday, and although it certainly was cool outside, temperatures seemed reasonably steady in the room. The total turnover for the auction was within cooee of Downie’s recent auctions, as were all of the other vital statistics:

Lots Offered	3,647
Lots Sold	2,901
Turnover (including buyer's premium)	$1,016,014
Clearance Rate	80.79%
Av. Lot Value	$293.69
# Lots above $10k	7

A decent number of the more valuable lots got away, as we can see:

LOT	ITEM	HAMMER	NETT
1038	1996 Polymer $100 Specimen Note	$10,000	$11,925
326	1930 Penny Fine	$14,000	$16,695
328	1930 Penny	$12,500	$14,906
3304	1860 Admella Medal	$14,000	$16,695
170	Port Phillip Silver Sixpence	$20,500	$24,446
174	1937 Proof Crown PCGS PR63	$10,500	$12,521
182	1951 London Proof Set (1/2d, 1d, 3d and 6d)	$30,000	$35,775

Proclamation Coins: There was a good cross-section of these coins on offer, they were active as they always are.

Australian Gold Coins: The coins here were clearly on the market, and although the offering wasn’t anything to crow about, there certainly were some nice coins included. I thought the prices reflected the current state of the market - higher quality items sold well, anything that had problems or was over-priced was allowed to pass in. The Type II Adelaide Pound that was offered had some issues, as did the really nice Type II Half sovereigns that were included, the lack of interest reflected the current desire for original surfaces.

Pre-Decimal Proofs: This market has obviously come back in recent years, current vendors seem to be aware that coins need to be valued appropriately if they’re to have any chance of selling. Not all of the more valuable lots in this section sold, so the vendors and auctioneer could have perhaps fine-tined their planning a little better. The list above shows that there is good demand for attractive items when they’re priced “right”. Two copper pairs, dated 1935 and 1942, were set a little higher than what comparable coins have been at in recent months, so remained unsold.

Commonwealth Coins: There was a good range of coins on offer in this section, however no condition rarities were found among them! There was good interest in the1930 pennies (even if one sold extremely cheaply!), while nearly all of the 20-odd 1923 halfpennies got away also. A few of the folks in the room that I chatted to after the session mentioned that they thought th prices for the silver were particularly weak - the 1922/21 overdate threepences made reasonable money, however the remaining coins were clearly not of much interest to those buyers keen on completing PCGS registry sets. (Either that or nobody bothered to check!) Coins that were offered up as being in reasonable condition really were soft relative to what the catalogue values might suggest for them.

Pre-Federation Banknotes: There were only 2 pre-fed notes in this sale, unusually they were both exactly the same bank, denomination and date. This didn’t deter bidders in any way, and I thought the prices they made were stronger than they might have if they were offered elsewhere. The history of our pre-federation notes hasn’t diminished one iota in recent years, if anything, they’ve become more appealing to collectors now they’ve reached price levels that are supported by a wider collector base.

Pre-Decimal Banknotes: Some of the more valuable notes in this section had been recently offered elsewhere, and were passed in at prices that were comparable, so I didn’t expect to see much action in them. That was indeed the case, and the vendors has as little luck with this outlet as they’ve had elsewhere!

Star Replacement Notes: I thought the star notes here were graded slightly optimistically, which really doesn’t help in this market - collectors see what they think is one fold or crease too many for the grade, and they’ll just leave it be to see another one in the next auction. The sales results reflected that. What I did think was interesting is that some of the notes that had been “recycled” (offered and passed in via a fairly recent sale) had been pressed in the meantime. This type of amateur enhancement isn’t missed by anyone that tracks the serial numbers of notes offered for sale via auction and knows how to grade, however a novice that accepts the grade and description provided could certainly come unstuck under those circumstances. I saw one “Uncirculated” note that was far from it just a few short months ago!

Specimen Notes: There weren’t too many of these notes on offer - the first of the two had what I thought was an incredibly high pre-sale estimate, the second one was closer to reality. The Type 3 paper $50 specimen note was passed in (the estimate was pretty much double recent sales figures, so wasn’t a surprise), while at a hammer price of $10,000 the polymer $100 made the strongest price we’ve seen for a note like that since before the Rare Coin Company went belly up in July 2012. That really is a remarkable turn of events, so if (if!) we see some consistency with results for similar notes in the coming months, it will be positive progress.

Overall, more than a million dollars in coins and notes turned over via Downie’s 324, which bodes well for Noble Numismatics 115 this coming week.

Status 333 and Downie 324 - Changing Gears in Winter

andrew — Tue, 27 Jun 2017 03:41:04 +0800

It’s been some weeks since we had a major auction or show here in Australia - the last major auction was Status International in the first week of June, the last show was the Money Expo in Brisbane a few weeks before that. The market is now changing gears into the winter series of events, the first of which is Downie’s auction 333.

Status International 333

Status International’s Auction # 333 was the first in their new premises in Glebe. I checked the Status website the day after the sale and it looked to me like it was a non-event (like 76 items sold out of 3,881 offered), however the final prices realised showed that either more than a few people made the three kilometre journey out to Glebe, or the postal bidders ate up the crumbs without moving an inch. Here are the numbers you’ll want to know:

Headline Figures
Published Turnover	$572,056
# Items Offered	3884
# Items Sold	904
Clearance Rate	23.27%
Average Lot Value	$632.81
$10k+ Lots Sold	3

The items that changed hands are not remarkable - proclamation coins sold well, as did Australian gold and pre-decimal coins. There were a few attractive pre-decimal proofs included, as well as some keenly-chased items such as a roll of 2¢ coins dated 1968. The higher-valued items that got away at Status 333 are pretty much the same as those that sold via Roxbury’s back in May:

Lots Sold Above $10,000
Lot	Hammer	Nett	Item
5094	$17,000	$20,273	Adelaide Pound Type II PCGS AU55
5437	$15,000	$17,888	1930 Penny Fine
5438	$18,000	$21,465	1930 Penny good Fine

It’s interesting to see the Type II Adelaide Pound enjoying the same liquidity as the 1930 penny - I can think of a number of other coins or notes that are as historic as these two icons that aren’t selling as well as these two are (the 1855 and 1856 Type I Sydney Mint sovereigns are just one example that come to mind), so I expect these coins appeal to certain buyers because they are rare and historic items within that price range ($15,000 ~ $20,000) that are available in presentable condition. Other coins and notes in that value bracket are either very low quality or very high quality, so the buyer is getting an item that has relatively limited appeal, or is a low grade example of a truly rare coin or note.

You don’t need to be a devoted numismatist to appreciate the history and rarity of a 1930 penny or an Adelaide Pound - their histories are quite well known, and it’s reasonably easy to identify a decent example.

Downie’s 324

Downie’s changed locations some time ago now, so buyers should be quite used to travelling to Box Hill for their next sale.

Downie’s have a solid retail network in the Eastern States, and also have a strong presence at the Money Expos that are held around the country, so there are a number of reasons for them to be getting offered really nice material. Their next sale includes a range of accessible gold sovereigns and halves, as well as proofs and predecimal copper and silver coins. They have a few 1930 pennies and an Adelaide Pound, as well as a 1951 PL proof coin set - although the quality of that set isn’t the greatest, we haven’t seen a set of 4 on the market for quite some time.

There are some interesting error coins included as well (a few I haven’t seen before), plus a good offering of pre-decimal notes, and some very interesting world notes. I won’t be sticking around for the entire event, but I do plan to at least view all the Australian items, and attend those sessions.

Roxbury's Auction 98 and Brisbane Money Expo Review

andrew — Fri, 12 May 2017 12:51:41 +0800

Here we are post-budget 2017, and the numismatic market is in full swing - Roxbury’s Auction 98 is underway as I write this, and the Brisbane Money Expo will be held this weekend at the Royal International Convention Centre in Bowen Hills (Brisbane).

Although I viewed (pretty much) everything in the Roxbury’s sale yesterday, there really isn’t much for me until the sessions later this afternoon, so I’ll use this time to let you know what’s going down.

Life as a auctioneer of rare coins and banknotes is easiest when you’re selling relatively high value single coins and notes - they’re easy to photograph, write up, transport and store. Roxbury’s have no aversion to getting their hands dirty with bulk lots of coins and notes - foreign, modern, old and new, you name it and it’s here.

More Mint Rolls Than In Any Auction In Recent Years

This particular Roxbury’s sale has a really large range of pre-decimal mint rolls in it - the biggest I’ve seen in any auction for a number of years. These rolls are mainly for common dates in the QEII silver and copper series, however don’t lead you into thinking these lots are going to bring not much more than melt value. The market for premium-graded Australian Commonwealth coins has been strong for a few years now, and there are more than a few dealers and collectors that make it their business to seek out coins that will “grade” well.

I saw a 1964 Perth Halfpenny listed on eBay earlier this week for the better part of $5,000 (yes, that is five thousand dollars, not $5 nor even $50!), and while the ask price of an item on eBay doesn’t always correspond with the price that is sells for, that should give you some idea of just how much incentive there is for dealers and collectors to chase down the finest known examples of even the most common pre-decimal coins, in the most unlikely of places.

If the coins in the rolls in today’s Roxbury’s sale have a lot of red on them, we could see some very strong prices indeed. Following on from the pre-decimal bulk lots are a range of 1923 halfpennies - I think I counted 11 of them all up. Prices for this iconic copper coin have clearly come back in recent years (not as the result of anything other than a normal market cycle), so we’ll see how these fare. There is the odd premium coin salted away in the remainder of the pre-decimal coin session, I have no doubt these will be found out.

There are quite a lot of modern decimal coins listed, ranging from proof gold and platinum right down to the most humble mint sets, that session will no doubt be active. There appears to be a good selection of US gold and silver coins included - this is quite a select market here in Australia, values are dependent on the way the coins will “grade” either via PCGS or NGC, so I expect to see some determined competition on those coins.

There are some more valuable banknotes from New Zealand and other foreign countries included, plus a wide range of affordable ancient coins as well. The Australian gold coin section includes some nicer pieces not seen very often, as well as many others that will appeal to mainstream collectors.

A True Australian Numismatic Icon - The 1916 Specimen Set of Silver Coins

The evening session includes at least one item that is incredibly historic, and hardly ever seen - a specimen set of silver coins dated 1916. This historic set is the first struck on Australian soil, at the Melbourne Mint. Although these coins are technically not proofs, they are the standard of coin that was kept for archival purposes by the Melbourne Mint and other public authorities.

Although there are a number of individual 1916-dated silver coins and sets that are marketed as being specimens, fewer coins and sets actually are specimens. This particular set has been given the tick of approval by everyone that I’ve spoken to, so while the pre-sale estimate of $90,000 can’t be described as being low, there is still as much interest in it as there always has been. The other proofs and rarities that kick off the 6pm session may not be in the same category as this 1916 specimen set, however there are some solid items included. Of interest is the electrotype of the 1909 florin - a coin that was never actually struck!

This particular electrotype is said to have been created in the late 1970’s by the notorious forger David Gee - just whether he took the electrotype from a genuine 1909 florin host is not entirely clear however. Gee produced a range of items himself - Port Phillip patterns from the Kangaroo Office among them. Although these electrotypes and struck “coins” look incredibly close to the originals, they are in fact quite different, and aren’t worth anywhere near the original items. It will be interesting to see whether this item is bid up from it’s $1,200 pre-sale estimate.

The rest of the evening session is dedicated to Australian banknotes of each type - decimal, pre-decimal and pre-federation. The decimal notes features a good balance between paper and polymer, scarcer and more affordable types alike. The decimal specimen notes appear to be priced in line with the market in the main, and while the Type 2 specimens are impaired with tone or tape marks on them, they are rarely seen.

The pre-federation notes on offer appear to be cheap enough, and as pre-fed notes have sold well via other auctions in other cities in recent months, there’s no reason for these to be left on the shelf. There is a good quantity of pre-decimal notes on offer as well, there wasn’t much to get me excited to be candid, however other collectors and dealers will no doubt find a few items here to be of interest.

All up, Roxbury’s auction 98 is shaping up to be a solid sale. Sure, it doesn’t abound in rarities in each and every section, however to expect that from any auction is perhaps unrealistic and naive! Nature has droughts and deluges, the numismatic market is no different.

2017 ANDA Brisbane Money Expo at the Royal International Convention Centre

The RNA Showgrounds has been the venue for the “Ekka” since 1876, so is definitely well known to Queenslanders right across the state. It was the venue ANDA used for many years also - some of the biggest coin, note and stamp shows were held there, so it’s great to be heading back to such a well-known and trusted venue for the 2017 Money Expo.

This year’s event will be held in Hall A of the Royal International Convention Centre, which is accessed from Gregory Terrace, between Costin and King Streets. The RNA website states that there will be plenty of parking available, so Brisbane’s collectors should be able to focus on buying and selling coins rather than getting to and from the venue.

The first Money Expo for 2017 was held in Perth in March, and that was the best-attended ANDA event held in that city for a number of years. Now, it’s fair to say that not everyone that attended that event was a dyed in the wool collector of coins or notes, but it sure had plenty of punters in through the door. The same publicity and promotion has been used for the Brisbane event, so it’s shaping up to be a bumper two days of activity.

The Five Cent Forage will be on again, which was just as popular in Perth this year as it was the year before. There was a great deal of hype on the internet a month or so ago about the value of the 2000 Mule Dollar, while the coloured 2017 Lest We Forget $2 commemorative coin has been incredibly popular on eBay and elsewhere. The NGB $5 note reinvigorated interest in our notes again, so there are a number of reasons for the general public to get down and see what’s happening at the show.

We had a very solid show this time last year, and will be keen to see what Brisbane in 2017 brings us!

The Trifecta Rolls In - Downie's 323, IAG 85 and Noble's 114

andrew — Fri, 14 Apr 2017 05:20:13 +0800

Without any evidence at all to back my conclusion up, I remain convinced that Australia’s numismatic auctioneers are bound in some way to an accounting cycle that mere mortals such as ourselves cannot see - how else can we explain the fact that we haven’t had an auction of rare coins and notes in Australia since November 2016, yet in late March we had 3 rare coin and note auctions within the space of 21 days? While it may not be accounting cycles per se, there is a rhythm to these events that I’m not yet aware of. I’ll mumble about this for some time, however I expect you’ll be far more interested the results of those auctions more than my pointless conclusions about their collective timing...

First Past the Post - Downie’s 15-17 March 2017

Downie’s perhaps fly a little under the radar with their sales - featured items aren’t previewed in the numismatic media, their headline results aren’t trumpeted, and they don’t push them particularly hard. That said, their results are generally consistent and solid. Here are the headline figures for their last sale:

Headline Figures
Turnover	$904,629
# Items Offered	3,342
# Items Sold	2,966
Clearance Rate	88.75%
Average Lot Value	$305.00
$10k+ Lots Sold	2

These results show that a lot of items were offered over the 3 days of the auction, and nearly all of them sold. An 89% clearance rate is solid indeed, and shows that in the main, the auctioneer and vendors prepared well for the day, and that the market set the prices for the items that changed hands.

Reviewing the catalogue, there really wasn’t much to get excited about in the early coin sessions - few of the coins were rarities or in superlative quality, the prices realised reflect that. It is interesting then that out of the entire sale, the only two items to achieve a hammer price higher than $10,000 were in this section of the sale:

Lots Sold Above $10,000
Lot	Hammer	Nett	Item
13	$19,000	$22,657	Adelaide Pound 1852 Type II reverse about EF
163	$17,400	$20,750	1930 Penny good Fine

I believe both of these prices were solid for the grade of the items concerned - they weren’t above or even full retail figures, but neither were they excellent wholesale figures that a dealer or collector would be delighted with. I believe this shows that there is good liquidity in the Australian numismatic market for accurately-graded rarities at a price - a positive sign indeed. Perhaps if the vendor or the auctioneer had pushed for slightly higher prices on these coins, the results would have been different.

The 1922/21 overdate threepences in this sale were decent quality, and made prices in line with the market. Again, not incredibly strong, but not weak either. There were some nicer KGV sixpences offered, however not all of these got away. The action in the other pre-decimal coins was par for the course.

Action in the pre-decimal and decimal notes seems to have been a little lighter, if the grades of the notes are an indication of just how good the notes on offer were. Quality pre-decimal notes are as difficult to get as they always have been, and interest in them has been rising slowly across the board. There aren’t as many collectors willing to buy these notes via auction as there were in years past, which could account for the softer prices relative to retail values.

Action in the decimal and world coins was consistent across the board, there wasn’t much outlandish included, and the prices realised reflected that.

The world note session featured a wide range of Egyptian banknotes, many of them "from an old Palestine and Egypt collection compiled in the late 1940s”. These notes are quite popular with British Commonwealth collectors around the world, and can be incredibly scarce in superior quality. The prices here reflected that, with some of the lots fetching four times their pre-sale estimate. No doubt at least some of those notes went to specialist collectors and dealers in all parts of the compass. The British Palestine notes a little later on didn’t bring prices that were as strong.

The tradesmen’s tokens sold well, however weren’t particularly strong - a good result nonetheless for a large quantity on offer.

There always seems to be something interesting in a Downie auction, this time around it seems it was the collection of Egyptian notes.

Next In Line - International Auction Galleries - 19 March 2017

It certainly is a tough gig heading to the Gold Coast for an auction, it beats Melbourne in July at least! The activity in the room was as warm as it was outside for this sale, here are the headline figures:

Headline Figures
Turnover	$806,829
# Items Offered	730
# Items Sold	593
Clearance Rate	81.23%
Average Lot Value	$1,360.59
$10k+ Lots Sold	14

We can immediately see here that IAG offers fewer, more valuable items, and that this is reflected in the figures. They handled around a fifth of the material (by number) that Downie’s did, and while their clearance rate was ever-so slightly lower, it remained quite strong. We can see that the average lot value was nearly 5 times higher, and that many more items valued greater than $10,000 got away:

Lots Sold Above $10,000
Lot	Hammer	Nett	Item	Category
184	$11,100	$13,237	NBA £5 Issued Note	Pre Federation Note
186	$11,000	$13,118	CBC Sydney £1 Superscribed	Pre Decimal Note
187	$17,000	$20,273	R2A 10/- about EF	Pre Decimal Note
225	$32,000	$38,160	R9 10/- SPECIMEN	Pre Decimal Note
226	$33,000	$39,353	R23a £1 SPECIMEN	Pre Decimal Note
249	$18,000	$21,465	R30bs £1 Star AUNC	Pre Decimal Note
333	$20,000	$23,850	1813 Fifteen Pence / Dump A/1 good VF	Colonial Coin
334	$152,000	$181,260	1813 Holey Dollar about EF	Colonial Coin
336	$20,000	$23,850	Type 12 Kookaburra 1d	Pre Decimal Proof Coin
337	$20,000	$23,850	1935 Proof Copper Pair	Pre Decimal Proof Coin
341	$12,000	$14,310	1935 Proof penny	Pre Decimal Proof Coin
343	$64,000	$76,320	1914 H Florin Proof	Pre Decimal Proof Coin
395	$16,000	$19,080	1930 Penny Fine	Pre Decimal Coin
396	$15,000	$17,888	1930 Penny good Fine	Pre Decimal Coin

When discussing the IAG sale after the event with a few clients and colleagues, I said that I thought the buyers active in the IAG sale were more sophisticated than they were in the recent past - the rarity and importance of some of the notes on offer are really only appreciated by collectors that have been active for some time, and have a deep knowledge of those areas. This is a level of participation we haven’t seen for some time. In a clearing stage of the market (as I thought we had been in), “type” notes in high quality appeal to far more collectors than rarer varieties in lesser quality - this applies to markets in coins just as accurately.

It was pleasing to see some interest in the pre-decimal specimen notes that were offered here (finally!), as they have been nothing less than turgid for about 4-5 years now. Market values have come down drastically (just ask the folks that paid six figure sums for them about ten years back), however it seems there is more than one buyer in the market right now that sees value in them. There is no denying these notes are incredibly rare and historic - they are some of the first currency notes printed at key turning points in our nation’s economic history, or to our heads of government, so will have an undeniable appeal in years to come. If we can see some consistency with similar figures across a few more sales, that will give hesitant buyers confidence to enter the market also.

The clearance rate in the better coins was solid, even if the prices achieved weren’t entirely record-setting. In a market like this, vendors will accept cash in the hand over an uncertain shot at a slightly higher return, so I believe the auctioneer did their job well with the items they had here.

This sale was unusual in that it had a great range of PCGS-graded proclamation coins - coins of this calibre are often only ever sighted intermittently within many other coins of lesser standing.

Aside from the pre-decimal notes, action in the specimen notes was solid also - the Type I specimen notes sold (which was a great start), and were solid to boot. A complete date set of PCGS-graded Veiled Head sovereigns was passed in with zero interest - this set would’ve taken the owner no small amount of time and resources to complete, and although competition is fierce on an individual coin by coin basis between registry set collectors, there are far fewer buyers prepared to pay condition rarity money for completed sets.

Error coins and notes were strong as usual, and although few of the pre-decimal coins and proofs in the main session had been PCGS graded, that didn’t seem to stifle demand for them particularly. Prices weren’t exactly robust, however the clearance rate was solid.

IAG was over and done fairly promptly - strong results in a fraction of the time!

Finally - Noble Numismatics 114 - 28-31 March 2017

Due to the way the prices realised are published by Noble’s, it is a little difficult to crunch all of the numbers for their sales - this is what we do know however:

Headline Figures
Turnover	$3,200,000
# Items Offered	5,127
# Items Sold
Clearance Rate
Average Lot Value
$10k+ Lots Sold	13

5,127 lots over 4 days really is a marathon in anyone’s book - the first session generally starts at 930 in the morning, while the evening sessions tend to wrap up between 930pm and 1030pm. I don’t know the exact number of lots sold, however I saw no reason while in the auction rooms to think the clearance rate would have been any different to the earlier two sales just discussed. The first morning session had some real excitement in it, with the inclusion of some fresh decimal error and variety coins - including a complete set of double sided coins from 1975, in proof no less! The more cynical collectors among us protested that they would have to have been "mint sport” - made by mint production staff either when the boss wasn’t looking or after hours. Whether they were or not is beside the point, they exist, and so therefore are collected. Ditto with all of the off-metal strikes of the decimal coins, these were mainly items like a 20¢ on a 10¢ planchet and the like. These coins are incredible to look at and are very seldom seen, and were chased accordingly.

There was quite a large and old collection of coins and tokens from New Zealand in this sale - collectors love nothing more than going through coins that haven’t been on the market for a few decades, and when we see the breadth, depth and quality of the coins in this sale, that’s very understandable. New Zealand coins are keenly chased by those collectors that are into them, however it has to be said that there aren’t too many of those relative to other areas of numismatics! Bidding was strong on the key items, and the clearance rate was quite solid.

There was a good number of proclamation coins in this sale, and although the quality wasn’t in the same league as those in the IAG sale, they sold well nonetheless. There was a good range of Australian gold coins in this sale - both sovereigns and halves. The clearance rate for the Adelaide Pounds was good, although it did drop off into the Sydney Mint sovereigns. Many of the Sydney Mint half sovereigns had been offered previously (and passed in at the current estimates), and so it wasn’t surprising to see them passed in again. The Shields and Young Heads seem to have come from an old-time collection, a date set of both series in superior quality. Not all of the coins had held up well against the de-facto PCGS grading standard, so were either quiet or passed in.

The strong results in that session showed the determination there can be for well-graded Australian gold coins. The pre-decimal proof coins really were something else - 5 of the first 6 pre-55 proofs were not unanimously acknowledged as being proofs at all, and their sales figures reflected that. The remainder of the pre-55 proofs were not in superlative quality, and suffered as a result. Through the QEII proofs, quality and unimpaired surfaces were clearly what collectors are after.

The vast majority of the most active predecimal coin collectors in the market at the moment are PCGS registry set collectors, which mens they either bid weakly on “raw” coins, or leave the risk to the dealers. Clearance rates and prices realised reflect that - coins that one might think would sell well bring softer prices then expected, while other coins don’t sell at all.

Wednesday had just as many British coins as Australian coins, the most attractive examples made good prices indeed - British coins are popular the world over of course, and remain as active here as they always have.

Thursday featured the foreign / world notes, as well as Australian notes from the earliest colonial times to today. The story for the Australian pre-fed notes wasn’t particularly different to that for previous auctions - black and white proofs were numerous and were patchy. The decent issued notes were contested to a level, while the specimens got away if they were reasonable value. There was not much in the way of fresh and interesting inventory in the pre-decimal notes, nor the decimal stars or specimens, so the prices there aren’t of much interest.

The world coins took up much of Friday’s activity, and there were a few solid collections of Chinese and Sarawak / Straits coins included. These sold well, sometimes for well above estimate, but in line with what one would expect informed collectors to push them to.

So there we have it - 21 days of activity across 3 states and cities, and just shy of $5 million in total sales. The Australian numismatic market certainly isn’t dead by any means - clearance rates seem to have improved in several market segments over where they were 12 months ago, even if prices aren’t stronger. Activity needs to build from a base, so vendors waiting for reasonable prices to emerge before they re-enter the market can take solace in that.

The Australian Coin and Note Market in 2017 - Will We Finally Need to Find Something Else to Complain About?

andrew — Fri, 10 Feb 2017 04:23:57 +0800

That remains to be seen of course, but I have a feeling that 2017 is going to be better than the last 12 months have been - the Australian numismatic market seems to be more efficient now than it has been, which is an important stage for us to reach.

By efficient, I mean that buyers and sellers are able to get together and do business within a reasonable period of time. Keep in mind that an efficient market doesn't mean that the prices items are traded at are necessarily strong relative to years past, that stage may yet be some time away.

There has been some water pass under the bridge since we had the major dislocations of corporate liquidations of 2012 and 2013 - a lot of the vendors that were very badly affected by those events have either: moved on; returned their items to the safe (to be retrieved at some indeterminate point in the future); or accept where the market is now, and are working with today's buyers.

New collectors arriving on the scene today have little or no knowledge of the dislocation that's taken place in the rare coin and note market over the past few years, and have nothing but confidence in the value they're getting.

It's taken us quite some time, but I believe 2017 will be the year that the last market cycle in Australian coins and notes draws to a close, and the next cycle will start to unfold. Sure, there's been no small amount of swearing, shouting and tears before we've gotten to this point, but we are here nonetheless.

The Australian numismatic scene has a number of undeniable positive fundamentals right now, and I believe these will become more apparent as the months unfold:

- Demand for physical metals is strong: the tinfoil-hat brigade are nearly as keen on metals as they were back in the heady days of 2008, which is really saying something. That physical demand for bullion and semi-bullion coins always leads to demand for related numismatic items, not to the same degree to be sure, but there is a knock-on effect to be sure.

- The NGB notes will continue to capture the public's attention: the new $5 note that was released in September 2016 was undoubtedly the biggest shot in the arm the Australian note market has had for 15 years. Collectors and the general public alike pretty much went bananas over the new $5 note, chasing them in all their permutations, and I have no doubt that will be the case when the $10 is released later this year. Demand for decimal notes has certainly taken a tick up in the months that have followed, there's no reason at all that will slow down now.

- Independent grading of Australian coins is now an accepted part of the numismatic landscape: this is another development that fundamentally changed the way coins are bought and sold over the past few years. I think it's fair to say that independent grading began to take hold of the broader Australian market about 5 years ago, so we're now past the innovation and adoption stages, and are well into the majority or maturity phase of this new "technology". Prices have settled as a result, and across the board the pace of trade is returning to efficient levels.

- Several segments currently offer excellent value for money - value that collectors haven't seen for decades: if you check what certain coins and notes are bringing today relative to what they've sold previously, you'll see that in some cases we're seeing prices that are equal to those of the early 1990's. Banknotes, proof coins, colonial rarities - you name it, value really is there. There's no doubt that a lot of collectors have been burned by the events of the past few years, and they'll never return to the market. However it's also true that the collectors entering the market today are thankfully unaffected by that trauma, and so take the market as they see it - cheap and great fun.

- Numismatic activity abounds: when I say numismatic activity here, I'm referring to research, learning and new information being brought to light by collectors around the country. There is good work being done by coin and note geeks across the country - new varieties are being discovered, and more information is coming to light on other chapters of our coin and note history. To me, this is a sign that those active in the market at the moment are in it for the here and now, without both eyes on where the market will be in 5 years or 6 months time. No collector starts out or even stays in this past-time without any regard for the future, but if they're focused on what's in front of them, they aren't concened about what's coming down the pipe, and that is a good sign.

Just what the future holds for us is yet to be seen of course, however with these fundamentals in place, I believe the average collector will need to find something else to complain about in 2017.

Is Australia's $100 Note Going To Go the Same Way as the Five Cent Coin?

andrew — Thu, 22 Dec 2016 06:01:18 +0800

Discussion of Australia's circulating currency set mainstream media alight for the third time in 2016 when a UBS analyst in mid November suggested that "Australia should follow India’s lead and scrap its biggest bank notes.” This opinion was shared across a wide range of mainstream media outlets, and stimulated some discussion on a range of topics - the merits of keeping large denominations in circulation, whether it was a criminal act to pay in cash, just how much money Australia’s older citizens had stashed under their mattresses, and whether criminals would go straight if large denomination banknotes were taken away from them.

This opinion was shared hot on the heels of a decision made by the Prime Minister of India to demonetize the two largest denomination notes circulating in that country - the 500 and 1000 rupee notes. PM Modi’s decision on November 8th to remove the legal tender status of both of India’s largest banknotes within hours of his announcement. The reason this was such a shock was because at the moment Modi banned them, the total value of those two bills accounted for roughly 86% of all of the cash in circulation in India.

The Indian demonetisation has been carried out in stages - no longer legal tender from midnight on November 8th, they could be used to pay certain utilities bills for a period of time, and could also be deposited into bank accounts until November 24th, and then at the Central Bank until March.

For many Indians, many of whom live in poverty and or in rural areas, a bank account simply isn’t a luxury they’ve entertained, so whatever meagre wealth they might have saved was effectively wiped out.

The idea of large denomination notes being removed from circulation was raised again in mid December, when Kelly O’Dwyer, the Minister for Revenue and Financial Services, announced that the Commonwealth Government has formed "The Black Economy Taskforce”, with the intent of cracking down on “...people who operate entirely outside the tax system or who are known to tax authorities but deliberately misreport their tax (and superannuation) obligations. The black economy can also include those engaged in organised crime, including those who engage in the production and sale of prohibited goods."

The press conference that announced the Taskforce explained that it would be carefully looking at “... successful measures that have been employed overseas.” A few of the measures referred to were the cash controls recently instituted in France, and the de-monetization of high denomination notes such as the 500 Euro note. The current cash controls in France (in place since September 2016) mean that "people who live in France will not be allowed to make payments of more than 1,000 euros ($1,060) in cash.” Minister O’Dwyer didn’t actually say that the Government was considering removing the $100 note from circulation but she also pointedly said that the Taskforce wouldn’t rule it out.

It seems the reality of even the idea of the $100 note being withdrawn from circulation was enough to get people talking - not only were quotes from the Minister’s press conference and subsequent media interviews parlayed across mainstream media, they were also picked up on social media and some of the more sensational “new” news websites that have come onto the scene in recent years.

The "Black Economy Taskforce” will apparently release an interim report in March 2017, and will present it’s final report in October 2017, so there’s nothing cast in stone yet. That hasn’t stopped libertarians, conspiracy theorists and precious metal bugs the world over as taking this turn of events as firm evidence of “The War On Cash”. Because if you’re not aware, there is apparently a war on cash unfolding around the world as we speak.

Harvard University Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff actually published a book in September titled "The Curse of Cash”. Rogoff is the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, so is definitely someone whose idea on the subject is considered by economists and central bankers the world over. Interestingly, Rogoff not only states that the majority of $100 bills in the US are circulating through the underground economy, but also that “...suppressing cash would make it easier for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to boost economic growth by pushing interest rates into negative territory."

Negative interest rates would seem to be a rather odd concept to the average mortgage owner - it is the strange world where you pay to keep money in the bank and get paid to borrow it. The theory is that negative rates will induce people to save less and spend more, which will revive growth. Savers won't tolerate negative interest rates on their savings as long as cash is an alternative.” Rogoff’s theory is that if you remove cash as an alternative store of value, it then becomes far easier to force the average person to keep the economy ticking over by spending their money rather than saving it.

I don’t think the average Australian would have any idea such measures as strict cash controls and negative interest rates might even be entertained by the Commonwealth Government, however if social media can be set alight by the mooted demise of the five cent coin or the colour of our new $5 note, these ideas will surely get people talking.

In the middle of the extreme views put forward by the “big government” advocatesand the rabid libertarians, are several voices of reason - from within the banking and payments industries no less. Lance Blockley is the MD of bank consultant RFi, which tracks cash usage. He states that Australia hasn't yet had the push from banks, business and government to cut cash. "So I think cash is going to be around for decades yet.” MasterCard Australian country manager Andrew Cartwright has also stated that any move to demonetise Australia’s currency notes won’t happen any time soon: "How long is this journey? I think we are talking decades, not within the next 10 years. I think it is just too big a behavioural shift to happen in a decade.”

I guess we’ll learn whether any of these changes come to pass within the next 12 months, how they affect business generally and the numismatic collectibles market specifically will be interesting to see. Now could well be a great time to put together a set of five cent coins and a set of $100 notes, just in case.

Noble Numismatics 113 and IAG Online 8 - The Last Coin and Note Auctions of 2016

andrew — Tue, 20 Dec 2016 06:01:12 +0800

The last major numismatic auction of the year was Noble Numismatics auction 113. Held in Sydney in late November, it ran across 4 days from 930am until at least 930pm each day. That is a marathon event in anyone’s terms - no less than 5,783 lots were offered for sale.

The very last numismatic auction of the year was IAG’s Online Auction #8 - there were far fewer lots in it to be sure, however it had a much quicker turnaround time, which is what many collectors (both buyers and sellers) are interested in these days.

It is interesting that the format of these two auctions are at both ends of what is a spectrum of business models now operating in the numismatic world - some auctioneers are edging towards smaller and more frequent sales, while Noble’s are quite content to continue holding three much larger sales per year.

The results at Noble’s continue to be solid, so I don’t expect their model to change any time soon. $3.8 million in coins, notes, medals and related items were sold, And while clearance rates varied quite widely in each session, the overall clearance rate was 82%. I’ll cover the IAG results after Noble’s.

The most valuable item in the entire sale was a sword with related militaria items awarded to a former Lieutenant Governor of NSW, Sir Maurice Charles O’Connell. This lot alone made $190,800, and was purchased by the ANZAC memorial at Hyde Park in Sydney.

The decimal and pre-decimal coins at the outset of the sale were active as always. The range of tradesman’s tokens in this auction was relatively limited compared to previous auctions, however there was some keen bidding activity on the few tokens that were included.

A small number of colonial love tokens were offered, several were contested very keenly - to the tune of many thousands of dollars. This is an area of the market in which one needs to be very well-informed if one is to survive - values can vary widely very greatly depending on whether the token was to someone that actually lived in Australia or not, and it isn’t always unequivocally apparent whether that is the case. When a few informed collectors do their homework and establish that a particular token does indeed relate to a convict that lived in Australia, the results can be very spirited. In such sessions the very next lot, which looks to the uninformed observer to be ostensibly as suitable as the previous one, can be passed in at a few hundred dollars! These love tokens are best left alone to those that study them deeply I expect.

There was a huge range of proclamation coins in the Tuesday evening session - far more than average. Bidding activity was strong, even on coins that had impairments or had been cleaned. The Holey Dollar in this sale found a new home, as did two of the better Dumps on offer. This evident liquidity is positive for the market, no doubt.

The Adelaide Pounds in the Tuesday evening session were quite soft - 3 of the 4 on offer were passed in. The remaining gold sovereigns and half sovereigns were active within recent market ranges - well-graded coins that had original surfaces and were well priced had a lot of interest, while coins that had hairlines or were priced above the current range were left alone.

The pre-decimal proof coins in this sale continued to be patchy - even unimpaired coins were left alone. Not all of the pre-decimal proofs in this sale were in superior quality to be sure, it isn’t unusual at all for collectors to walk away from them. I was surprised however that the better examples (with orignal lustre and surfaces) didn’t attact much interest however. The three kookaburra patterns in this auction seemed to have estimates that were well above the market’s expectations, each of them was passed in which indicated that was clearly the case.

The Commonwealth / pre-decimal coins included some attractive coins from a well-regarded collection that was handled by Noble’s some years previously. Coins that have been off the market for an extended period of time are effectively assessed by potential buyers these days against the PCGS grading standard, which can mean that certain coins that were keenly chased years ago are left completely alone today. Picking through each lot to identify value is a challenging task, and one not for the faint-hearted. The clearance rate for this session reflected that, not too many coins were chased beyond their reserve.

There weren’t any major collections in the world coins and notes this time round to draw particular attention, however they were popular with specialists in those areas.

The Australian pre-federation banknotes in Noble 113 were varied with respect to their form, price range and quality. Based on that bidding activity, I now believe this market is far healthier than it was 6–12 months ago. Let me be clear - prices are no higher, and in some cases are lower than they were over that timeframe, however bidding activity is now spread far wider than it used to be, and that is a clear indication of rising demand.

Certainly, that demand is rising off a low bottom and is in some cases no doubt weak and speculative, however it is positive nonetheless.

Activity was solid across the board when it came to the pre-decimal notes in this sale, regardless of the quality level and price range. Demand for heavily circulated pre-decimal notes didn’t ease at all following the high-profile corporate liquidations in the past few years, bulk lots of those remain as keenly sought as always. I’m noticing that the price range over which pre-decimal notes sell for is starting to narrow - more auction results are slowly rising relative to accepted retail values, which is again a positive sign.

There were few decimal specimen notes in this sale, those that were included were largely imperfect in some way - in my opinion, the prices realised reflected that.

There was a lot of interest in the paper and polymer decimal notes in this sale. Due to their relatively low value (and I do mean relative to pre-federation or pre-decimal notes), decimal notes tend to be offered in groups or collections. It has been the cast in recent years that decimal notes in less than UNC condition are impossible to sell, however that is less and less the case in recent months.

Many lots that I would have thought would be of little interest to collectors was bid on multiple times, and while I might think those bids are “crazy”, they do seem to be an indication that broad-based interest in these items is rising. It could be argued that as such notes are mainly being bought by vest-pocket dealers, internet-only dealers or eBay speculators, that isn’t “educated” demand. As far as I know, markets don’t particularly care where demand comes from, so dollars changing hand for these items is as legitimate a transaction as any other. A small percentage of the collectors buying these items will invariably spread further afield, I fully expect this trend to continue as the remaining notes in the NGB series are released into circulation.

The Les Carlisle collection of historical medals was the focus of activity on Thursday. Les is a stalwart of the numismatic scene in Sydney (and indeed Australia), with his assiduous research and publishing in the field of historical and commemorative medals. Historical and commemorative medals have been struck for many different subjects, events and geographical areas, which means that the field can relate to all kinds of Australian collectors.

Reviewing the prices realised demonstrates that this is a fascinating and largely inexpensive field for collectors to become active in - few items brought more than a few thousand dollars apiece, however many were keenly contested. This can be testament to just how rare some of these medallions are, and also how coveted they can be by collectors that are active in very specialised areas. The highlight of the collection was the Halloran medal dating to 1824 which made a $30,000 hammer price. There are only 8 of these medals in existence, they are among the earliest items of Australian silverware produced on Australian soil. The clearance rate for Les’ collection was quite high, a number of the lots that I had ear-marked in my catalogue made hammer prices well above their estimates.

Although Noble Numismatics 113 was not the last auction of the year, it was of course not the final one. IAG’s last auction of the year was their 8th online-only sale, which is an entirely new format for the major auctioneers to use. Online sales have been a function of the Australian numismatic market for close to 5 years now, so they’re nothing new at all.

I do believe however that they have not yet gone mainstream in the way the IAG auctions (or other online auctions) are poised to do. Online sales have the tendency to get lost in the white noise of the internet, whereas the “traditional” numismatic auctions are heavily-promoted, stand-alone events that aren’t missed on the numismatic calendar.

IAG’s 8th online auction has so far turned over in excess of $300,000 - not a large sale when compared to traditional auctions, however certainly a respectable result, and one that could be built on.

As a regular buyer from auctions myself, I’m not 100% sold on the online model, if only because I believe it is fundamental to physically check a lot of material before buying it. Add in the additional lead time that comes from buying from an auction house (perhaps a week or two), and I expect I will be travelling interstate to bid in an online auction at some stage within the next two years - this madness will allow me to view the items I’m interested in, and take delivery directly after the sale. Such travel does of course stand to completely negate the benefits of holding an auction online, however I fully expect I won’t be alone in doing this. Perhaps we’ll all be bidding on our laptops in a room around the corner from the auction house? Time will tell, but I won’t be surprised.

Fortunately progress is not determined by one type of customer, and it’s clear to me that many, many collectors are quite comfortable with bidding with the major auction houses online. Not just for inexpensive lots either - IAG Online #8 featured at least 4 lots that made hammer prices greater than $10,000, and many more between $5,000 and $10,000.

One statistic in support of that action is that the average lot value for IAG was $569, whereas the average lot value for Noble’s 113 was $657 - there certainly isn’t daylight between those two numbers!

Sales across each market segment seemed to be quite acceptable - prices were as solid for pre-decimal Commonwealth coins as they were for pre-decimal proofs, as they were for pre-decimal banknotes and error coins.

Certainly, a clearance rate of 77% indicates that 23% of lots by number were not sold, so there is room for improvement. I’ll be watching this space keenly in the months to come to see how the market shapes the way auctioneers operate in future.

First and Last Prefixes - Are they REALLY First and Last? (Inconceivable)

andrew — Mon, 03 Oct 2016 05:11:05 +0800

It’s now been a few weeks since the NGB $5 notes were released into circulation, and although a lot of people are yet to see them in their change, they’re slowly but surely making their way around the country.

It’s been 15 years since the last note was issued into circulation in Australia, and although I was actively involved in buying and selling all the different types of the Centenary of Federation $5’s when they came out in 2001, I have to say that 2016 is probably is the first time I’ve been conscious of how notes are printed and distributed while it’s actually happening.

I wasn’t at all surprised that the first notes that I saw in circulation had regular prefixes, missing out on first prefix notes is par for the course for most of us, the first notes printed will only land in certain regions or cities according to which retail banks happen to have orders pending on the release date. What threw me was the fact that last prefixes were available in the first few weeks of the notes entering circulation - inconceivable!

I now believe that my confusion about how the NGB $5’s were being distributed and what I expected to happen was caused by a misunderstanding of what the terms "first prefix" and "last prefix” mean. Up until a few weeks ago, this is what I took them to mean:

First Prefix: one of the very first notes printed of a particular denomination, signature combination or year

Last Prefix: one of the very last notes printed of a particular denomination, signature combination or year

Over the past few weeks however, I’ve come to question those definitions. Here’s why:

All notes have a serial number of course, and are printed in sequential order. Take a look at any bundle of banknotes, and you’ll see that each note in a bundle has the same prefix, and consecutive numbers (generally speaking anyway).

Up until now, for some reason I’ve believed that note production starts with the first serial prefix, and runs continually through all prefixes until the end of the production run is reached. This is why I thought first and last prefixes were popular - that they marked the beginning and the end of each production run. Even non-collectors can understand why a collector might pay a premium for one of the very first notes printed, or one of the last notes of their type, first and last prefixes have long appeared to be a simple way of identifying those key points.

When we look at the composition of an uncut sheet of banknotes however, we get a different perspective not only on how banknotes are printed, but also on which notes are printed first.

The image below is of an uncut block of 4 polymer $20 notes. Although this product was printed solely to sell to the collector market, it was printed in exactly the same manner that circulating notes are printed. The important point to appreciate is that each of the notes on the block has a different serial prefix, but has the same serial number. This sheet composition shows why first and last prefixes can enter circulation at the same time - they can be printed at the same time.

If first and last prefixes are printed at the same time as all the other prefixes, I’m wondering - why do we aspire to own them?

By coincidence I recently saw a good example that showed prefixes aren’t the only area that collectors have an interest in. If you read my review of the IAG auction on the Gold Coast a few weeks back, you’ll remember that I mentioned the apparently incredible prices that two early decimal notes brought:

The last significant auction results were for a $1 and $2 note from 1966 that had unusual serial numbers. Anyone without deep knowledge of the way in which decimal notes were printed would have simply thought these notes had interesting, but not incredible serials - each was numbered 000001. There was plenty of bidding activity on the notes via the internet before the auction started, most folks in the room put that interest down to those kooky error and variety note collectors, who are a law unto themselves in many ways. It wasn’t until after the sale had ended that the reason for their keen interest emerged - these notes had been taken from the very first sheets of paper decimal notes issued into circulation. The interesting thing was that despite the very low serial numbers, the serial prefixes didn’t immediately highlight the importance that these notes had.

Click this link to see the actual notes that sold for slightly more than $7,000 apiece - the lot numbers are 505 and 506, and are on page 54. Keep in mind that a standard AAA first prefix 1966 $1 note currently sells for around $1,000 in Uncirculated condition, while the FAA first prefix 1966 $2 note currently brings closer $3,000 in the same grade, so what that auction result showed was that low serial numbers can be valued much higher than certain prefixes.

The fact that two notes with standard prefixes and incredibly low numbers sold for premium prices at the same time as last prefix notes were being released into circulation at the same time as last prefix notes has made me question - should I be collecting by serial number rather than prefix? Should I be collecting both?

Up until 2016, the mintage of nearly every Australian decimal first and last prefix note is 1 million notes. When we keep in mind that the NGB $5 notes are printed 54 per sheet (up from 40 per sheet for all of the previous polymer $5 notes), that means that if we get an NGB $5 note with a serial number lower than 186186 (with any serial prefix), it will be one of the first million notes printed. It is public information that 172 million of the NGB $5 notes have been printed so far, that leaves us with a current mintage of around 3.185 million notes with each serial prefix.

In the absence of a defined collector market for extremely low (or extremely high) serial numbered notes, first and last prefix notes remain the simplest way of establishing the boundaries for the production run of the NGB $5 note. It may not be the most satisfying way of collecting, but it is easily the most pragmatic way of collecting them.

Just as Winston Churchill said “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others”, collecting by prefix will most likely remain the most popular collecting strategy for note collectors for decades to come, even if only because better methods haven’t emerged yet.

I’m interested to hear what you think of the idea of collecting by prefix - does it make more sense than hunting for certain serial numbers?

Also, what is the lowest serial numbered NGB $5 that you’ve seen so far?

IAG Auction 84 - Active in the Sunshine

andrew — Thu, 29 Sep 2016 05:01:35 +0800

The trip I made to the Gold Coast a few weeks back sure wasn't a tough one - Perth was cold and wet, yet it was a sunny 26 degrees in Broadbeach! Aside from the sunshine, IAG auction 84 was extremely active.

Although the total turnover was less than a million dollars, that reflects a trend to smaller but more frequent sales these days. At around 81%, the clearance rate was solid, as good as can and should be expected from an auction held at any stage of the market cycle.

The first thing I noticed when the sale kicked off was that there were more bidders in the room than there were for the last sale - that wasn’t a high mark to get over, but was a positive sign nonetheless!

The early section of the auction contained foreign, proclamation and inexpensive pre-decimal coins, and each of these sections was quite active.

Australian Banknotes - Incredibly Strong in Patches

The first lot to generate some real excitement was a NSW Police Fund pair - an incredibly rare and historic item. These notes date to the period of the Holey Dollar, and was issued by what is effectively our nation’s first colonial treasury. Very few examples of the Police Fund’s circulating currency are known, so this pair was always going to be in demand.

The last time this pair turned up was in April 2011, where it made $32,000 hammer. This time round it made $28,000 hammer to a phone bidder - a drop no doubt, however nowhere hear as big a drop as we’ve seen in other areas of the market.

The next strong price was $28,000 hammer to a matched trio of pre-federation specimen notes (£1, £5 and £10), each printed for the National Bank of Australasia, ready for issue in Perth. Although we’ve seen a few more £1 and £5 specimens from this bank and domicile over the past few years, there has only ever been 4 £10 specimens sighted. The strong result here showed that the £10 is the key to this set, and that it doesn’t take much to shift collector sentiment at all, even in a relatively quiet market such as we’re in at present. Just when the next NBA Perth £10 note will be offered is anyone’s guess!

The next item to really draw some attention was lot 184 - a consecutive pair of 1918 £1 notes (Renniks R#21) in about Unc / Unc condition - basically, this pair was pretty much as good as they come in terms of quality. As far as I know, this is one of around 3 pairs of this note known, and far exceeds the other two known pairs when it comes to quality. Although I’ve sold many pairs of notes over the years (mainly paper and polymer notes), I’ve never really seen pre-decimal notes bring a premium at auction over and above what we’d expect to see from the equivalent single notes.

That said, we haven’t seen a comparable single R#21 in a number of years - the last I recall was in June 2011. Five years passing between auction appearances shows that although prices might have eased in the pre-decimal note market in recent years, they sure aren’t getting any less rare.

The single note in June 2011 made $36,115 nett, whereas this pair of notes made $102,555 nett - a 40% premium. I believe it really was incredible to see such a strong premium for this pair at a time when the rest of the market has eased, which shows just how desirable this pair was to more than a few dedicated and well-funded collectors.

Despite these incredibly strong results, not all of the high value pre-decimal notes sold - a number of others were passed in without so much as a murmur. The last pre-decimal note that drew out some competitive bidding was a £5 star replacement note that had a “million” serial number that had been hand-stamped in. Items like this aren’t the first notes that collectors gravitate towards, however they definitely grab the attention of collectors that have long been in the market, and are attracted to interesting and unusual items. This particular note is thought to be the only pre-decimal star replacement note with a serial number like this, and was keenly contested as a result. It made a nett price just shy of $37,000.

Activity for the paper and polymer decimal notes was par for the course, however there was a very strong result for a 1995 specimen $5 polymer note - one of just 2 examples of this specimen that have been sighted. This note made $31,005 nett, which is not far from what some of the pre-decimal specimen notes have been bringing in recent sales! The recoloured $5 specimen is arguably Australia's rarest decimal specimen note, which explains the price.

A Historic South African Gold Coin

One of the more unusual items in this sale was a "Veld Pond”, an incredibly historic gold coin from South Africa dating to the Boer War. Only 650 were struck in a mint that was actually established on the battlefields where the Boers were fighting the British, making the Veld Pond an incredibly exciting and historic coin to own. They are seldom seen at auctions in Australia, perhaps once every few years or so. This particular coin made around $18,500 nett, a figure in line with sales of comparable coins around the world in recent years.

That same level of interest didn’t extend right across the Australian gold coins however - activity in the shallow end of the pool was as expected (quite active for coins that were conservatively graded and priced), whereas the more valuable coins were left alone if they weren’t bargains.

Pre-Decimal Proof Coins - Prices Unseen Since the Late 1990’s

Two of the three kookaburra pennies in this sale were sold, which was a great result. The vendors would have been keenly aware that the prices they made were rather tame however - we have to go back to the late 1990’s before we see prices at auction as cheap as these. Still, that is the way market cycles work.

The pre-decimal proof coins that followed shortly after were largely the same, the coins were quite rare, and although they weren’t PCGS-graded, they weren’t all impaired or unattractive. Prices for them were very weak indeed, some were ridiculously cheap. The winning bidders would quite rightly contend of course that if we thought they were so cheap, why didn’t we bid on them?

A Deuce of the First Paper Decimal Notes Issued Into Circulation

The last significant auction results were for a $1 and $2 note from 1966 that had unusual serial numbers. Anyone without deep knowledge of the way in which decimal notes were printed would have simply thought these notes had interesting, but not incredible serials - each was numbered 000001. There was plenty of bidding activity on the notes via the internet before the auction started, most folks in the room put that interest down to those kooky error and variety note collectors, who are a law unto themselves in many ways. It wasn’t until after the sale had ended that the reason for their keen interest emerged - these notes had been taken from the very first sheets of paper decimal notes issued into circulation. The interesting thing was that despite the very low serial numbers, the serial prefixes didn’t immediately highlight the importance that these notes had.

So all up, IAG Auction 84 was quite active, and is a clear indication that vendors are finally realising that items need to be priced in line with the current market if they are to sell.

2016 Melbourne Money Expo - A Major Step Forward

andrew — Sat, 03 Sep 2016 01:15:47 +0800

It’s been a week since the Sterling & Currency crew were in Victoria for the 2016 Melbourne Money Expo. The Melbourne weather was nothing to complaint about, the advertising and promotion all looked clear and professional, and there was much discussion in the media about the valuable displays that were on show. (Channel 9 visited on the Saturday and took footage of the kids in the Five Cent Forage, and interviewed a few to boot.)

I don’t know what the numbers were through the door yet, however the queue to get in the door on Saturday morning was the longest we’ve seen in years (without exaggeration). The show products released were incredibly popular with folks through the door, many of the folks that bought them stuck around to peruse dealer’s tables and offer items for sale.

It’s no secret that the ANDA Coin, Note and Stamp shows had become rather tired and lifeless in recent years - a casualty of the market, and also no doubt a result of a lack of turnover in the organising committee (myself included!) Belinda Downie took on the President's in ANDA slightly less than 12 months ago, and in that time has driven a program of change throughout ANDA’s operations, not least the way our shows are organised.

The results are clear for all of us to see - more general public and collectors through the doors, our issuing authorities (the Royal Australian Mint, the Perth Mint and Australia Post) actively involved, and an unequivocal positive atmosphere in the room.

Our own activity was quite positive - we didn’t set any sales records to be sure, but were quite satisfied with total by Sunday afternoon, and also with the items we’d been offered for sale. It was also great to meet face to face the other dealers and collectors that we only know via our emails or via the phone.

Although the changes made to the Money Expo’s promotional literature, advertising and publicity were made earlier in the year, and although those changes were evident at the Perth and Brisbane Expos, the Melbourne Expo clearly stood head and shoulders above them. Time and tides wait for no-one of course, so we can expect this resurgence in energy to continue to be applied at the Sydney Money Expo, to be held in October this year.

I'm hoping and expecting that we’ll have even more activities available for kids, collectors and the general public available in 2017 - news on that in the coming months. As it stands though, the 2016 Melbourne Money Expo was a major step forward for the hobby here.

No matter which part of Australia you're in, make sure you register for the Money Expo email newsletter to get notice about the upcoming events.

Noble Numismatics Auction 112 - A Marathon Event, Including the George Fenton Collection

andrew — Fri, 05 Aug 2016 05:12:44 +0800

Anyone involved in Australian numismatics will be quite familiar with the size of the Noble auction catalogues - it is nothing at all for one sale catalogue to weigh several kilograms, I’d shudder to think what their annual postage bill is.

Sale 112 was no exception - there were so many lots in this sale, they were split across two catalogues. The smaller of the two catalogues included the George Fenton Collection of Australian Commonwealth coins, and truly deserved it’s own listing.

That said, the Fenton collection of pre-decimal coins wasn’t the only notable session of this sale by any means. The first full day of the sale had the Australian colonial coins, gold coins, pre-decimal proofs and coins issued into circulation during the pre-decimal period.

Although there was a good number of proclamation and colonial coins in this sale, there wasn’t a great deal in terms of quality in my opinion. Certain coins in that series continue to push new price highs here in Australia (I’m mainly thinking of the British and British Indian gold and silver coins), no doubt they are forced up by the domestic markets those coins have.

One of the two Holey Dollars on offer sold, while the better Dumps remained weak - they seem to be yet to find their level in this current market cycle. There were a number of Adelaide Pounds in this sale, the better examples seem to have had reserves at the upper end of their current trading range, and were left alone by buyers as a result.

Australian Gold

The remainder of the Australian gold sovereigns and halves were quite solid I thought - the clearance rate was far better than it has been in recent years, no doubt a result of vendors being prepared to meet the market. Good quality sovereigns remain in decent demand, any Australian gold coin in reasonable quality and with an estimate to match generally finds a buyer these days. I thought the halves particularly were stronger than they have been - prices realised may not have been at record levels, however the clearance rate was solid, which is a good start.

Pre-Decimal Proofs & Pre-Decimal Coins

There were more Pre-1955 proof coins in this auction than there have been in any auction I can think of in recent years - 37 coins all up. With such a large number of coins included, we shouldn’t be surprised that the quality and value of the coins was quite mixed, ranging from fresh and attractive coins that had been clearly reserved in line with the current market, to impaired coins that had also been reserved in line with the market, to coins that were decent quality, but that had been clearly priced in line with where buyers were at just a few years ago.

The prices realised and clearance rate reflected this diversity - sales were patchy, however buyers didn’t get things their own way all the time by any means. There were a couple of quite strong results, the most valuable being the proof 1914 Heaton florin. It made $226,575 nett, which is less than it made in March 2013, however certainly more than what a comparable coin was passed in for in September 2014. Pre decimal proof coins still sell well, however buyers need to see obvious value on the table before they’re prepared to step up.

The predecimal coins that followed in the Tuesday evening session were “raw” (i.e. they had not been independently graded), which is not what the majority of the monied crowd is chasing these days. That said, dedicated collectors pored through the bulk lots and carded lots to find the hidden gems. I thought prices for the overdate threepences and 1930 pennies were solid.

British, World and Ancient Coins

The British coins the next day were solid - the few items in this sale that were truly superior quality made very strong prices, demand came in from all corners of the globe via the phone and the internet. I thought the price paid for the proof 1847 Gothic Crown ( a few dollars shy of A$18,000) was incredibly strong. The “world" and “ancient” coin sessions were up next, and while these innocuous words are quite straightforward to say, when we keep that these terms cover the coins struck for pretty much every other country in the world other than Australia, and also all of the coins struck for the world’s ancient civilisations, we get some idea of the potential scope such a session might have.

Strong prices and competition in these sessions depends of course on the material offered - if an auctioneer can get a good collection of coins from a particular field, it doesn’t matter whether it is from a British Commonwealth country, somewhere in South East Asia or from hundreds of years ago, the most valuable coins generally rise to the fore. The “viewing” for these sessions is generally quite serious - dedicated collectors will make use of their specialised catalogues to attribute the items they’re considering buying, and these are the collectors that generally do the best. There was some very keen bidding in the Chinese silver coin session - a number of coins sold for what I had determined to be retail prices - the 1928 “Automobile” dollar from Kweichow in China made close to 10 times estimate, and about 5 times what comparable coins have sold for at auction elsewhere in recent months!

Hannibal Collection of Carthaginian Coins

Carthage was an ancient city/state that battled the civilisations of both ancient Greece and Rome at various times between the 4th and 2nd centuries BC. The coins of Carthage are a rich series, and this sale contained a comprehensive collection of close to 100 Carthaginian coins, ranging in value from the low hundreds to the tens of thousands. The collection not only covered each main period in Carthaginian history, it covered as many high-value denominations as cheaper low denominations. The classical designs clearly drew in demand from around the world, as several of the more important pieces sold for many tens of thousands of dollars. It was very impressive to see a well-formed collection meet with collector demand.

World Banknotes

New Zealand banknotes (decimal, pre-decimal and Pre Reserve Bank of New Zealand) were long an area that was the domain of the deep pocketed dealers of Australia - clearance rates in recent years have reflected that, however if the rising interest in these notes in this sale was any indication, vendors of this material seem to be coming back to earth. The clearance rate was better than it has been, even if prices were a fraction of what they have been. Such was the case for a number of the other world notes - strong demand in pockets.

Australian Banknotes

The earliest notes in this session were the decimal notes, and weren’t they strong in sections! Bundles (original packs of 100 notes) were particularly strong, I’m clear that prices are now 20% - 30% higher than they were just a few years ago. That hasn’t yet been translated into higher prices for the more valuable bundles, which appear to be far better value than the common R78 and R89 bundles at present.

There was some interest in the (mainly Tasmanian) bills of exchange, as well as in the Pre-Federation banknotes. Demand for these notes now comes from far wider quarters than it used to - more dealers and collectors are chasing these notes. One swallow does not make a spring however, so although the results were positive, we need to keep in mind the number of pre fed notes on offer here was limited, and the progress needs to be repeated if the market is to build.

The George Fenton Collection of Australian Pre Decimal Coins

The Fenton Collection was either the highlight of the sale, or one of them at least. It contained one of each Australian pre-decimal coin issued for circulation, each in premium condition, each independently graded, with nearly all known die varieties accounted for. That really is an incredible achievement when we think of it - some varieties are incredibly tough to get in any condition, let alone in finest-known quality. I won’t profess to know Mr Fenton at all, however it isn’t difficult to see from the composition of his collection that he had a very keen interest in Australian pre-decimal coins, and took a great deal of satisfaction in celebrating the finest known examples that were available to him. That combination of insistence on quality and determination to maintain that standard right across the board is very rare indeed.

I think it’s fair to say that the dispersal of the Fenton collection came about a little before time - a number of the Fenton coins were acquired from the Benchmark (2015) and Borg (2012) sales, so haven’t been off the market for too long at all. The unfortunate thing about collecting is that while we might buy and accumulate privately, when we develop a provenance we sell publicly, and shifts in market values become quite transparent. Whatever the reason for the disposal of these coins was, we can be sure that it wasn’t an easy or simple decision to make. Nobody likes to sell something for less than they’ve paid for it, and I think few collectors would have acted as pragmatically as Mr Fenton has - having made the decision to exit his collection, he wasn’t swayed by the discomfort and disappointment the likelihood of exiting them at prices lower than the paid. Any collector that has dithered over a purchase or sale for financial reasons will agree that this takes some strength of character.

Such sentimental considerations were quickly forgotten when the session started, for while there has been at least one other very keen and determined collector of these coins active in recent years, Mr Fenton was able to obtain many of the finest-known pre decimal coins graded to date by PCGS. Such coins don’t come around very often at all, so eyes were peeled at 730pm on the evening of the sale.

I’ve received several emails from clients that were nigh on shocked by the prices realised - they felt they were incredibly strong. While I’d agree that certain prices were higher than we’ve ever seen publicly, many of these prices were in fact lower than what such coins have changed hands for privately in recent years. Even the most astute observer of auction sales won’t be aware of what coins or notes are selling for between collectors and dealers (how can they?), so these results will be complete news to such collectors.

Fenton Collection - Headline Numbers:

Total # of Coins Offered: 379

Total Prices Realised: $871,264 nett (Does not include coins sold after the sale)

Clearance rate: 94% (23 lots unsold)

Number of Lots Sold for More Than $10,000: 13

Top 3 Lots by Value:

Lot 3240 - 1930 Penny PCGS AU50 (Equal finest known) $89,438 nett

Lot 3221 - 1920 Plain Penny PCGS MS65RB (Finest known) $59,625 nett

Lot 3025 - 1932 Florin PCGS MS64 (Equal finest known) $28,620 nett

Although the clearance rate in terms of lot numbers was very high, in terms of value it wasn’t as strong - the value of the unsold coins came to around 20% of the total value of the collection. Don’t think that all the key rarities were unsold however, as the denominations and dates listed within the most valuable coins sold is a who’s who of Australian numismatic rarities:

LOT	ESTIMATE	HAMMER	NETT	DENOMINATION	DATE	GRADE	RANK
3006		$9,000	$10,733	FLORIN	1913	64	2ND FINEST
3008		$17,000	$20,273	FLORIN	1914-H	64	2ND FINEST
3016		$8,500	$10,136	FLORIN	1922	65	EQUAL FINEST
3018		$8,800	$10,494	FLORIN	1924	65+	FINEST
3025		$24,000	$28,620	FLORIN	1932	64	EQUAL FINEST
3026		$8,500	$10,136	FLORIN	1933	64	4TH FINEST
3028		$9,000	$10,733	FLORIN	1934/5 MC	67	FINEST
3077		$9,000	$10,733	SHILLING	1933	64	2ND FINEST
3175		$13,500	$16,099	THREEPENCE	1933/4 OD	66	FINEST
3221		$50,000	$59,625	PENNY	1920 PLAIN	65RB	FINEST
3234		$15,000	$17,888	PENNY	1925	64RB	EQUAL FINEST
3240		$75,000	$89,438	PENNY	1930	50	FINEST
3245		$18,000	$21,465	PENNY	1933/2 OD	64RD	FINEST

That said, the roster of coins that weren’t sold also contains some important pieces:

LOT	ESTIMATE	HAMMER	NETT	DENOMINATION	DATE	GRADE	RANK
3004	$4,000		$0	FLORIN	1911	64	2ND FINEST
3005	$10,000		$0	FLORIN	1912	64	2ND FINEST
3009	$15,000		$0	FLORIN	1915	64	2ND FINEST
3069	$7,500		$0	SHILLING	1921	64	2ND FINEST
3113	$17,500		$0	SIXPENCE	1918	67	FINEST
3157	$2,000		$0	THREEPENCE	1912	64	3RD FINEST
3167	$75,000		$0	THREEPENCE	1921/22 OD	58	FINEST
3213	3500		$0	PENNY	1915 L	65BN	EQUAL FINEST
3224	$7,500		$0	PENNY	1920 I DAB	66RB	FINEST
3229	$1,500		$0	PENNY	1922 L	65RB	FINEST
3232	$750		$0	PENNY	1924 L	64RB	3RD FINEST
3242	$3,000		$0	PENNY	1931 L STD	65BN	EQUAL FINEST
3273	$350		$0	PENNY	1950 Y	64RB	EQUAL FINEST
3284	$300		$0	PENNY	1956 Y	65RB	2ND FINEST
3301	$12,000		$0	HALFPENNY	1915 H	64RB	EQUAL FINEST
3309	$12,000		$0	HALFPENNY	1923	AU 55	2ND FINEST
3319	$600		$0	HALFPENNY	1933	64RB	3RD FINEST
3327	$600		$0	HALFPENNY	1940	65RB	FINEST
3331	$1,250		$0	HALFPENNY	1942 I	63RB	2ND FINEST

This shows that no matter how pragmatic Mr Fenton was being, this auction wasn’t a fire sale by any means. I find it interesting to see the relative quality of the items that were passed in, and quite understand why a 1911 florin in PCGS MS64 wasn’t allowed to sell for $4,000! It is interesting to note that none of the lots passed in were outside the 3rd finest for their date, which is incredible.

If the bidding seemed strong, that is where the final price realised was far in excess of the published estimate, we need to keep in mind that the auctioneer and the vendor’s agent needed to set reserves and estimates that ensured the coins actually sold, and in situations like that it is best to plan for the worst, and hope for the best. So yes, while there were some strong prices, they were in fact in line with where the market has been for such coins in recent times. For those of us that like to marvel at such things, here are some of the more notable results:

Some Notable Hammer Prices:

Lot 3001 1937 Crown PCGS MS65 (Equal finest known of this denomination) $3,220 nett

Lot 3028 1934/5 Melbourne Centenary Florin PCGS MS67 (Equal finest known of this commemorative) $10,733 nett

Lot 3036 1942-S Florin PCGS MS65 (Equal finest known of this date) $1,550 nett

Lot 3050 1956 Florin PCGS MS66 (Equal finest known of this date) $1,550 nett

Lot 3093 1948 Shilling PCGS MS66 (Finest known of this date) $2,027 nett

Lot 3175 1933/4 Overdate Threepence PCGS MS66 (Finest known of this date) $16,099 nett

Lot 3187 1943-S Threepence PCGS MS67 (Finest known of this date and of this denomination from this mint) $5,009 nett

Lot 3221 1920 Plain Penny PCGS MS65RB (Finest known of this rare variety) $59,625

Lot 3245 1933/2 Overdate Penny PCGS MS64RD (Finest known of this variety) $21,645

Lot 3271 1949 Penny PCGS MS65RD (Finest known of this date) $2,027 nett

Lot 3288 1959 Penny PCGS MS65RD (Finest known of this date) $4,055 nett

Lot 3348 1954 Halfpenny PCGS MS65RB (Finest known of this date) $2,266 nett

Lot 3352 1962 Halfpenny PCGS MS67RB (Finest known of this date) $1,133 nett

I know that a few collectors were really pleased with their purchases, and that a few dealers were pleased with the items they’ve picked up and will apparently be salting away. Another chapter in Australian numismatics has opened and closed, so what can we take away from it?

- Independent grading has given many collectors the confidence to buy coins at a time when confidence really is lacking in other areas of the market

- Independent grading of superior quality coins is vital to accessing the most enthusiastic collectors in today’s market

- Independent grading isn’t the sole factor that comes into play in determining a return on one’s investment

Did you participate in the auction? Were you able to get a bid in sideways? Did you get a bargain? What do you think of the prices realised? Feel free to comment using the tool below.

New Series of Videos Explain the Systematic Process of Grading Coins Launched by PCGS

andrew — Wed, 29 Jun 2016 05:23:39 +0800

One of the 6,835 emails I got a few weeks back mentioned a series of webcasts recently recorded by PCGS called “Learn to Grade Coins”. I filed it away to read “when I got time”, which of course meant I didn’t get to it until much later.

Now that I have taken some time to check the videos over, I’m pleased I did.

Reason being, information on the systematic approach required to “grade" coins is incredibly hard to come by in any form.

That is the case whether you like the idea of independent grading or not, or whether you rate PCGS as a grading company or not, or whether you think our coins should be sent to the USA or not!

PCGS did publish a book back in 1997 on this subject - "The Official Guide to Coin Grading and Counterfeit Detection: Professional Coin Grading Service”. I bought the second (and current) edition of that about 5 years ago when it became pretty clear independent grading was going to be a part of the Australian numismatic landscape, and to be honest, I wish I’d had access to it back when I’d started out in numismatics 15 years earlier. I don’t know that it would have had me aspiring to own only MS70 coins 100% of the time, however I do believe it would have helped me develop some positive habits earlier.

My copy has a lot of underlined lines, highlighted lines and commentary in the margins, all an indication of keen study. Although collecting is an activity that should be relaxed and enjoyable, certain aspects of it require discipline - discipline that shows itself in a systematic approach to identification, authentication and grading.

One of the reasons many collectors take so long to get going when it comes to collecting coins is due to the perceived risks that are involved. That isn’t an imprudent approach to take either, there are considerable risks at play when we're buying coins, the quicker we learn to mitigate those risks, the better.

In my opinion, a successful coin collector will always have discipline and a systematic approach to grading their coins, and I believe the new videos that PCGS has released are an excellent way of starting on that path.

Notice that I’ve said starting on that path - it’d be incredibly naive for us to think that we can master a skill such as coin grading by simply watching a few videos, however I don't think it is unreasonable at all for a collector to get an idea of the areas that need to be considered when grading a coin by reviewing these videos.

Grading coins is developed by experiential learning - a term that Wikipedia defines as being "the process of learning through experience”. We learn many things experientially - riding a bicycle is the most obvious of them. We learn to ride a bicycle by riding a bicycle, and we learn to grade coins by looking at a whole heap of coins.

These videos give a clear introduction to the main areas to be considered when grading coins (as defined by PCGS), so have the potential to save the novice collector a whole lot of time in their learning process. Knowing what we’re supposed to be making decisions about when assessing coins is a lot further down the track than not knowing the first thing about grading.

I think it’s important to post a few caveats to my endorsement however:

1. The videos are US-centric. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, PCGS is a US-based company after all. The coins used in each video are US coins, so may take something for the average Australian collector to extrapolate what they need from these videos when it comes to Australian coins. That isn’t impossible at all to do however.

2. The videos are a not-too-subtle reminder of the apparent importance of original surfaces and quality when it comes to collecting coins. This might seem to be stating the bleeding obvious, however not all collectors agree that original surfaces and quality are the most important factors to take into account when assessing potential acquisitions. Back in 1989, a national debate was conducted in on this subject in the US, just a few short years after PCGS was established in 1986. A very well-known collector of US coins, John Ford, argued that independent grading was not a positive force in the numismatic industry, and was rather forthright in saying so! You can view video footage of the debate on YouTube via this link - it’s well worth watching if you have even a passing interest in collecting coins. Despite the many valid points that John Ford made in that debate, it would be foolish to ignore the impact that independent grading and PCGS have on the Australian numismatic market now.

There is less than an hour of footage all up, so it isn’t an impossible amount of time to find, particularly if you’re keen on getting started or more knowledgable as a coin collector.

If you’ve watched the videos and have an opinion of them, I’m keen to hear what you think.

Could the Government Sell the Royal Australian Mint? Yes, It Could Conceivably Happen

andrew — Wed, 29 Jun 2016 03:58:38 +0800

Conceivably yes, however most unlikely.

Each year when the announcement of Australia’s Annual Commonwealth Budget falls due, a number of stories do the rounds of mainstream media pointing towards big shakeups in expenditure and assets, as pointed to in this article in the Australian newspaper in May 2015: "Iconic assets will be sold and government departments will be slashed in a new effort to reduce the size of the public sector and raise more than $4 billion, in contentious reforms to be revealed in tomorrow’s federal budget."

One of the Commonwealth assets mentioned among those being considered for disposal was the Royal Australian Mint (RAM) - the organisation responsible for striking the coins we use each day, as well as all the coins made for Australia’s collector market.

Although the possibility of the sale of a number of national assets such as the Australian Rail Track Corporation and the registry service of the Australian Securities & Investments Commission are or were being considered, the sale of the Royal Australian Mint was ruled out pretty quickly.

This was seen to be a fairly obvious red herring - the Mint surely has too much responsibility for it to be sold to private interests, with so much of our nation’s economic integrity depending on the RAM’s products, it was thought the idea was purely academic. Some market commentators participated in the very Australian activity of “taking the piss” out of the very notion that the Mint might be sold:

"One of the greatest ideas that's been floated is that of selling the Royal Australian Mint. It's one of those plans that seems insane until you think about it a bit, and then still seems insane, but eventually if you close your eyes and sit in a quiet room for long enough, begins to make a brilliant kind of sense.

After all, why shouldn't the people making our money make some money for us? Right now, we don't really get much from the Mint apart from currency - by selling it off, the Australian people will get a huge windfall and some bold entrepreneur can make the production of our money more efficient by doing whatever it is that entrepreneurs do to make things more efficient. Like robots or internet fridges or something."

Recent events in the Netherlands however show that such an idea may not necessarily always remain academic.

News emerged out of the Netherlands in April of this year (before the 2016 Budget) that “State Secretary Eric Wiebes of Finance wants to get rid of the Royal Dutch Mint, which has been struggling with financial problems for years.” Although the Royal Dutch Mint (RDM) has been operating since 1567 (pretty much four centuries before our own Mint in Canberra opened!), it apparently incurred fairly heavy losses in recent years by trying to strike coins for foreign countries. One order that went horribly sideways for the Dutch Mint was for the government of Chile - the coins were apparently not up to the specifications required (a shipment of pesos developed dark oxidation stains), and apparently had to be counted by hand (all 850 million of them!), and heavy losses were incurred as a result.

The Royal Dutch Mint released a statement on their website that "The Minister of Finance is conducting a strategic review of state participation in the Royal Dutch Mint.” This was the clearest indication yet that discussions were underway with a range of potential buyers.

The Royal Australian Mint strikes a number of coins for foreign nations, and so far they haven’t encountered any significant problems with striking (or counting!) them - touch wood, they aren’t exposed to the same levels of risk that smaller mints such as the RDM have been in recent years.

Although there has been some pushback in the Dutch media about the idea the RDM might be sold, it does show that national mints are not a sacred cow completely immune from the rigours of commercial reality.

If our RAM incurred steep and consistent losses over a period of time, the case for it to be sold could conceivably be stronger. Until that time however, I believe media reports on the subject are incredibly premature - set your watch for early May in 2017 for the next batch to come out!

Incredible Map to Historic Australian Shipwrecks Discovered on Qantas Flight

andrew — Tue, 14 Jun 2016 04:30:23 +0800

When flying back from the Status International Auction 324 in Sydney a few weeks back, I happened to cast an eye over the flight map shown on the Qantas in-flight entertainment screen.

Although I travel fairly regularly with our national carrier, I didn’t realise that two of Australia's most important shipwrecks were identified on the maps - the Batavia (that sank in 1629) and the Rapid (that sank in 1811).

Those of us with an interest in Australia’s pre-settlement history know full well that both of these shipwrecks have yielded coins - coins that sat on the ocean floor for at least two and a half centuries before being discovered.

The flight map in the image shown doesn’t show the full picture (pun not intended) - these shipwrecks are the only points of interest on the entire Qantas domestic flight map that are not either a capital city or a Qantas destination.

When you’re next on a Qantas flight (to any part of the country), check the flight map and you’ll see what I mean - the only other points I’ve ever seen on the flight map are capital cities or regional destinations.

The reason this stood out to me is because none of the Qantas destinations in that part of North West Australia are identified on the map - Qantas flies to Geraldton, Exmouth, Karratha and Carnarvon (the regional towns closest to these wrecks), yet none of those destinations are identified.

Surely it would have been easier to add one of those to the map?

Curious as to why these locations were chosen, I thought I might look into things a little further. (Yes, I am an insatiable coin geek - roll your eyes as much as you want).

From the Switchboard to the Qantas Club to Cabin Staff Straight to the Captain

I first telephoned the Qantas switchboard a few days after returning to Fremantle, and although Julia was extremely courteous and did her best enquiring with a few different departments, I couldn’t get an answer. That wasn’t a surprise - answering a question like this doesn’t exactly meet anyone’s KPI’s, and it’d be hard to determine just which department to send it through to. (Navigation? Customer Care? In-Flight Entertainment [Shipwreck Map Sub-Division]?)

Julia suggested I ask a few ground staff when I flew with them next, which happened to be last weekend to Sydney to watch the Sydney Roosters take on the Melbourne Storm at Allianz Stadium - the chooks were beaten 46-0, so the less said about that the better.

The staff I spoke with at the Qantas Club in Sydney thought the question was really interesting, but couldn’t help either. I then asked the cabin staff if they could help, and they said they’d speak to the flight staff.

The pilot's explanation was that the shipwrecks were simply points of interest - they didn’t think the locations were particularly precisely located (not something I’d noticed), and that they certainly weren’t destinations or navigational waypoints.

Which leads me to think that whoever put that map together is a closet shipwreck treasure hunter - someone with a keen interest in pre-settlement coinage!

Was This Map Prepared by a Keen Treasure Hunter?

It’s interesting that those particular wrecks were chosen as points of interest, as there are other wrecks and maritime points of interest along that section of the WA coast that are arguably of greater historical importance, but which aren’t known to have yielded coins - the wreck of the Tryall (that sank in 1622) and Dirk Hartog Island (the very first point that the Dutch landed on the Western Australian coast) to name but two of them.

If you happen to know more about why or how these landmarks ended up on the Qantas flight map, I’ll be stoked to hear from you.

In the meantime, this at least shows there is an enduring interest in the history of these wrecks right across the country.

If you haven’t heard of these shipwrecks before, don’t be concerned as we can introduce you in no time flat.

Click this link to read our introductory article to the Batavia shipwreck - one of the world’s bloodiest shipwrecks;

Click this link to read our introductory article to the Rapid shipwreck - coins from this wreck are incredibly rare.

Rare Coin & Note Auction Review - Roxbury’s 96 and Status 324

andrew — Mon, 13 Jun 2016 03:31:17 +0800

Roxbury’s Auction 96 started out with a full house, as it nearly always does.

Auction 96 was the first Roxbury sale for 2016, so they had a few months extra backlog of inventory to work through - this extra material no doubt swelled the bidder numbers.

A packed room has not only been a good indication of solid buying interest, it can also be an indication of the type of material on offer. The items offered up by Roxbury’s in the early part of the day really was an eclectic mix - the usual range of material brought to most dealers around Australia - tradesman’s tokens and medallions, as well as bulk lots of foreign, copper and silver coins. There was also a decent range of inexpensive coin sets (both Australian and foreign).

This type of material warrants inspection more than individual coins and notes that might have been looted individually and photographed, this ensures that potential buyers will stick around to bid after they’ve looked through them. Individual lots are often assessed solely via the catalogue, so can be less likely to draw bidders into the room.

Once the opening session was out of the way, then the pre decimal coins were underway. These coins were in the main toned copper and bright silver - attractive enough, but not the kind of material that sets the market alight at the moment. The clearance rate for these sat at around 80%, with an absence of record prices for sure. The clearance rate noticeably dropped off for the pre decimal proof coins, I expect due to the fact they were still “raw” and not condition rarities. An attractive 1955 Perth copper pair did get away however, which was good to see.

Next up was something I really haven’t seen before, not in Brisbane nor any other auction I’ve been to! It was a serious collection of Maundy coins (Around 80 lots, so more than 300 individual coins). These sets are issued to the poor and sick in a centuries old tradition by the British monarch at Easter each year. These coins had been clearly accumulated by a collector that had taken their time to amass a collection in attractive and unimpaired quality - many lots even included the original leather cases they were presented in.

Most Australian numismatic auctions tend to have one or two Maundy sets in them, if at all - so this really was something of an event. In another demonstration of the ubiquity of collecting interest and knowledge in the 21st century, the clearance rate for this section of the auction was quite high, and the prices they made were strong to boot. At least two of the sets made prices pushing the $1,000 mark.

There was also a decent range of interesting foreign and British coins. The highlight was a seriously rare 1831 crown - impeccable condition, it brought a hammer price to match.

The Australian gold coins followed next, and I thought they were quite strong. One coin in particular was chased quite keenly - it made a $4,000 hammer price against a $1,500 estimate. Aussie sovereigns and halves may not be the flavour of the month at the moment, but rest assured - there is a dedicated band of collectors active in this field.

The auctioneer next had up a range of coin “rarities” - a Holey Dollar and an Adelaide Pound, as well as some early predecimal proofs and a 1930 penny. The Dollar wasn’t the most attractive example ever seen, neither was the 1930 penny, and both remained unsold as a result.

Some of the early pre decimal proofs did get away however, not at great prices to be sure, but they did sell. This area of the market is in the process of trying to find its way again - questions such as these are slowly being answered - what are collectors prepared to buy? How much are they prepared to pay? There’s an old saying - the first guy over the wall always gets shot, which is to say that we take a risk when we move in front of the pack.

When a market drops heavily, buyers are often fearful of getting back in - jump in too soon and you can pay way too much for something. Keep in mind we’re talking thousands of dollars per item in this area of the market, so that can be an expensive mistake to make. Hence jumping over the wall and taking a bullet.

Low clearance rates for such coins have been the norm in recent years, and this auction may well have been the first to have estimates and reserves that really reflected that fact. I look at what the predecimal proofs in this sale were listed at, and more to the point what they sold for, and just marvel at how far things have come back. Some of those coins made a quarter to a third of what they would’ve sold for just five years ago.

These are historic and rare coins mind you, not rubbish at all. I expect we’d all like to collect in an environment where everything rose in price and there wasn’t ever any potential downside to us spending our money, however the reality is that just ain’t and won’t ever be the case. An auction like this that sets new price levels is and really can be a cathartic and blood-letting process - it clears things up, and allows the market to heal and move on.

I believe vendors and auctioneers of comparable coins in the coming months will need to show the same courage and pragmatism that we saw in this sale if the base is to set in. Nobody with a shred of common sense accedes to take less than what their item is worth, however we need to keep in mind that this really is a buyer’s market at the moment, and such coins really do need to be incredibly good value if they’re to be sold.

Banknotes - Decimal, Predecimal, Specimen and Pre Federation

The auction then moved onto banknotes - an area far apart from gold, proofs and Mandy sets. There was an incredible array of decimal notes on offer, it was all taken up by bids which shows this segment of the market endures. There was a good number of specimen notes as well - decimal and predecimal. The clearance rate here was straight down the middle at 50% - checking over the ones that did sell and the ones that didn’t, the determining factor was that value litmus test I mentioned just before - vendors that try and hold out for that little bit more than what is great value for money find out pretty quick that buyers have no problems leaving them the hell alone.

We saw that with the pre federation notes as well - just 2 of the 27 lots offered up were actually sold! That is abominable by any measure, no question at all. The fact is, there are very few buyers that are prepared to take a decent position in this market at the moment, which means if we want to exchange them for ready cash, the price needs to reflect that. It should be clear by now that prefed notes need to be priced at or below their recent trading range if they’re to stand any chance of getting away.

Vendors in the predecimal note market have been doing that by and large for the past few years, clearance rates and prices realized reflect that. There wasn’t a huge amount of really top quality, fresh and original predecimal notes in this sale, but those that were sold well. Many of the star replacement notes that followed were tired - pressed, cleaned and or flattened, and in my opinion the estimates and reserves flattered them. The prices realized showed the reality however - such notes at such prices simply won’t pass muster.

And that was that for Roxbury’s Auction 96 - it showed that the numismatic market continues to function in a way where buyers and sellers do business at prices that are fair to both.

Status International Auction 324

This Status sale probably passed most collectors by - it was scheduled as a stand alone event (that is, away from a major show), and didn’t really have a lot of headline material to draw in interest that might percolate through the rest of the sale.

That said, around half a million dollars worth of material changed hands over the course of the five hours or so that it took to get done. You might not have thought such a result was going to be on the cards if you were in the room when the auctioneer got underway - apart from the staff at the front of the room, there was perhaps no more than 6 people in there with them!

A lot of bids in the Status auctions are submitted postally or online, a fact that renders such portents largely irrelevant. The main notable point about this sale is that the clearance rate was a mere 25% (in round figures), which is surely a lousy result by any measure!

While some might say that is definitely the case, I can tell you that Stewart Wright (the man in charge of Status) makes it quite plain that he sees his role as being one whereby he gets what he sees as being fair value for his vendors. He’s quite right to say that anyone can sell a coin or note if it’s cheap enough, however the auctioneer’s job is really only done if the vendor and the buyer are both OK with the price. One might argue that a 25% clearance rate shows that 3 out of 4 buyers thought the starting prices in this sale were too high, so perhaps it’s a numbers game.

I don’t know that we can take too much fresh knowledge about our market away from the results of this sale - exactly the same factors were at play in determining what sold and what didn’t as were at play in Roxbury’s. I was able to get a few items that’ll have a modest earn in them, however they were dang hard to come by!

Looking over the results for the Status sale, I can’t say any more about what’s going on in our market than what I’ve said for Roxbury’s - there has to be value, value, value.

Noble’s is next up in late July - there’s a MAJOR collection of PCGS-graded Australian predecimal coins included in it, as well as a raft of other rarities to boot I have no doubt at all. We shall see how things progress then.

Australia's Next Generation $5 Polymer Note - Can Dunny Brushes Really Be A Technological Breakthrough?

andrew — Thu, 28 Apr 2016 08:40:06 +0800

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) threw the internet into meltdown on April 12th when it revealed the designs of the first note to be released in their Next Generation Banknote (NGB) Project, the $5 note.

I wasn’t working in the numismatic industry when our current series of banknotes was introduced into circulation, between 1988 and 1996, however the level of media interest in the launch of this note was far higher than I’ve experienced relating to any Australian numismatic story in the past 20 years.

I was interviewed no less than 4 times by different ABC radio stations throughout the day on April 13th (Canberra, Sydney, Darwin and Geraldton).

That doesn’t include the amount of interest in the note on social media (not that the internet, much less social media existed in the minds of most people in the world between 1988 and 1996), which was alight with the initial reactions of many Australians to the designs on the new banknotes.

Despite the fact that the new designs show that the RBA and Note Printing Australia clearly continue to push the envelope when it comes to banknote printing technology, a lot of the vitriol was shot from the hip and hardly what one would call “considered”. Such is the world we live in today, and as pretty much everyone from children to the elderly now has a keyboard and access to the internet, and as opinions are like backsides in that everyone has one, the screens of social media were alight with fury casting aspersions on any number of aspects of the new $5 note.

Colour and the Queen

The main subjects of contention were that the Queen remained part of the designs, and the fact that the colour palette used on the note was much wider than on our existing $5 notes. The intriguing question I have is how has the RBA included the much-discussed tactile element within the design of the note?

Some of the comments on Facebook really are quite laughable (more than a few keyboard warriors said the spray of wattle in the middle of the back of the note looked like “Clown vomit”), whereas the folks on Twitter voiced such sophisticated comments as that it was "...clearly Tony Abbot’s last captain’s pick".

There’s no doubt at all that among my first reactions to the designs on the new $5 was that I immediately thought that the additional yellow flowers in the middle of the note were incredibly bright, and vastly more eye-catching than we’ve seen on any Australian note to date. My eye was also caught by the clear window that seemed to run right through the middle of the note, as well as the additional colours that could be seen in that clear window.

Splash of Yellow - Prickly Moses Wattle or Dunny Brushes?

We’d be foolish to think that RBA staff weren’t aware at all of the range of reactions that this splash of colour would elicit - after all, this project has been underway since at least 2007, and their own press releases describe how “Advice has been sought through a number of channels during the development process, including an advisory panel, subject-matter experts and focus groups comprising members of the public. These ongoing consultations provide an opportunity to ensure that the new banknotes meet the needs of the community.” I have no doubt at all that the feedback in some of those consultation sessions would have been “lively” to say the least.

The RBA has long telegraphed that bright colours are just one of the ways that it enables vision-impaired members of the general public to differentiate between the various Australian denominations: "As previously announced, existing features to help the vision impaired tell the difference between different denominations of Australian banknotes will be maintained on the new series. These include: bright colours; large and bold numbers; and different sizes for each denomination of banknote."

What I find interesting about this additional splash of colour is not that it has happened, but that it can now happen.

In years past, the range of colours seen on Australia’s banknotes (and indeed the banknotes of nearly every other nation on earth) has been quite limited - the colours featured will fall within a range of the colour spectrum, each different colour closely nested with the others used. This has been largely due to the technical challenges and costs associated with doing otherwise!

I think it’s incredible that NPA has developed the polymer printing technology to the extent where it is even possible to feature a wider variety of colours on our national notes. I find it interesting that there’s been so much blowback from the general public over this development, albeit blowback that has been concentrated on social media within the space of about 48 hours (until everyone moved onto the next thing to holler and shout about!)

This is particularly the case when we consider the general agreement that Australia’s currency notes are considered to be more “interesting” than the greenbacks of the USA, all of which are printed with largely the same colour scheme, no matter which denomination they are.

The Clear Window In the Middle of the NGB $5 - Is This Really a New Development?

If you’ve been keeping across our website for the past 12 months or so, you’ll be aware that I’ve been fortunate to handle a few of the rare polymer “Turbula” test notes, as used by CSIRO in the development of our polymer currency notes in the late 1970’s. Interestingly, those notes have a clear window that runs from top to bottom, however the security element (effectively a hologram) printed within that pane is far less complex that those we’re seeing on the NGB $5 note.

As those notes are now nearly 40 years old, the clear pane is clearly a security device that NPA has been keen to include for quite some time. I’d suggest the reason that it hasn’t been included on the Australian notes that have been issued into circulation so far is because of the technical challenges involved in ensuring that the design elements stayed on the clear pane after a few decades of circulation.

If we look at the NGB $5 note closely, we can see that not only does the clear window pane have a lot of print on it, there’s a wide range of colours in that window to boot. We can see blue, green and red in the birds in the centre of the note, while Sydney’s famous Federation Pavilion (in Centennial Park) is a rich purple colour. The entire reason polymer substrate is used for circulating currency notes is because of just how incredibly hard it is to print on. Reports from the RBA following a concerted attempt by a Colombian criminal cartel to counterfeit Australia’s polymer $100 note way back in 2006 stated that the notes “...were printed on plastic film, and contained high-quality reproductions of the design, clear window, white pattern within the clear window and shadow image.” This added complexity of fine detail and a wide range of colours will surely ensure that Australia’s polymer currency notes remain difficult to counterfeit for many years to come.

Should the Queen Still Be On Australia’s Banknotes?

My personal opinion is that so long as HM QEII remains as our head of state, then the tradition of her being on at least one of our notes should remain unbroken. That’s not to say that I don’t want to eventually see an Australian head of state at some stage - once those with their hands on the levers work out a constitutional model suitable to the majority and that majority votes in favour via a referendum. If we switch to a Republic at some stage in the future, then there’s no doubt a suitable replacement will need to be found. Until that day comes however, tradition says Her Majesty remains where she is!

Another aspect to the discussion surrounding the portrait of Elizabeth II being included on our notes is whether the portrait should be a more recent one, rather than one that was designed before 1992, and was “touched up” in more recent times. My understanding is that this approach to the way that all of the people on our NGB banknotes will be depicted. In the article written by Adam Shand back in September 2012 that broke the news of the NGB Project, he quoted one source as stating that “Designers were briefed to capture "characteristics of Australia" with "youthful" and "energetic design qualities". They were supplied with new portraits depicting the subjects on the notes at earlier moments in their lives."

More than a few people online pointed out that the polymer notes recently issued by New Zealand feature a far more accurate representation of how the Queen looks today, and that this was an appropriate approach. There’s no doubt that’s a fair observation to make, however if designers will be ensuring that Unaiapon, Reify, Flynn and the other highly-regarded Australians featured on our currency notes are to be rendered in a more youthful and energetic style, then it would surely have been out of place to include a portrait of the Queen that was less so.

All in all, given the incredible level of media interest in the new designs featured on the NGB $5, I believe the near-term future of the note market bodes well.

The Tactile Element, Just Where Is It?

One of the major developments the the NGB banknotes will be bringing about is a tactile element - the ability to tell what denomination the note is, based on how it feels. Although the RBA has been quite open about this new feature since it was announced in February 2015, they have been less open about just how that tactile element will be included. Although Braille notations included on the notes seems to be the most obvious choice, there are actually a number of other options that the RBA may have opted for instead.

Connor McLeod is the young blind boy from NSW who lobbied the RBA on behalf of the blind community to include a tactile element on our new banknotes, and whenever he’s discussed the idea, he’s mentioned Braille specifically. That said, he also mentions Canada’s currency notes, and the system they’ve implemented to enable vision impaired Canadians to determine which notes they’re handling. The Bank of Canada website states that they opted for a system of raised dots that isn’t braille for some reason: "The tactile feature consists of symbols of six raised dots (two columns of three) separated by a smooth surface. This system is not Braille. It was developed in consultation with blind and partially-sighted Canadians after research indicated that not all users read Braille."

Other countries such as Thailand have included Braille on their notes, while the UAE uses a series of lines to denote which denomination is which, as does India. Many, many other countries around the world have solved the same challenge in different ways.

The images released by the RBA of the NGB $5 note to date seem to indicate two raised dots either side, close to the middle along the top and bottom edges. That said, a number of the countries mentioned on those pages above have indicated that the life-span of significantly raised dots could be impractical if they happen to wear down with circulation over time. That said, there is a section on the upper left of the front of the note that features a series of dots, and I’m not convinced that there isn’t the braille number 5 hidden within it...

I’m convinced that the launch of the new $5 note in September is certain to increase interest in collecting decimal notes - the hand-wringing hysteria of the Twitterati will fade once everyone learns just why the RBA made the decisions that it did, and people will get back to relating to their banknotes just as money!

IAG Numismatic Auction 83 Results - 10 People in the Room, 708 People on the Internet!

andrew — Mon, 25 Apr 2016 12:03:12 +0800

The 83rd IAG auction was far more approachable than the last Noble sale I can tell you - viewing could be achieved in the space of a few hours (as opposed to a few days for Noble’s), and the whole auction ran over about 3 and a half hours. Short and sweet!

IAG’s auctions have been some of the biggest and most exciting held in our industry - lots of rare, valuable and historic items, packed rooms and an enjoyable atmosphere.

It could well be that those were “the good old days”, not just because many numismatic auctions are more boutique affairs these days, but because the way that many collectors prefer to buy has changed significantly also.

Anyone active in the numismatic market knows that not only has online bidding become a part of numismatic auctions in recent years, but also that the online bidding is often completely overshadowing the activity in the actual auction room.

Nowhere has that been more evident than it was at the IAG 83 auction.

To give you an idea of the rate at which online bidding has been taken up by many collectors, there were only 10 people in the auction room when lot 1 was offered up (not counting auction staff). It would have been nothing to see 50-60 people in the room of an IAG auction 5 years or so ago. Before you think that the whole sale was an unmitigated disaster, I should point out that 706 bidders had registered for the auction, and 98 of those bidders had lodged successful pre-auction bids before the action in the room started.

Put those bidders in the room with the 10 hardy souls that made their way to the Gold Coast (like that’s an onerous journey to make!), and we have a vastly different visual impression of the level of interest in the auction.

The way an auction in this format pans out is also rather different to the way they used to before the inter webs got involved - the auctioneer will open the bidding at the highest pre-sale bid, which can come as a shock as we’ll see, and all of the pre-sale bids are executed by the auctioneer or a member of staff.

In IAG’s case, the bidder number the auction staff used was number 1, which meant that the call of the auction sounded something like a bookie calling out the odds for horse race in the bush - “$180 to 1”, $4,000 to 1”, “$1,600 to 28”, “$800 to 1”, and so on.

Entire pages of lots in the auction catalogue sold to different internet bidders, each of them falling under the umbrella of bidder number 1.

Three Australian Numismatic Auction Records

There were a couple of auction records achieved this way - two lots that come to mind are the trio of 1961 ten shilling star replacement notes in Uncirculated condition - these notes have been making either side of about $10,000 when they’ve turned up in this condition in recent years. Despite that, more than a few bidders were keen on getting them as a (perhaps unique) consecutive trio, and the online bidding pushed the hammer price up to a hefty $50,000 ($59,625 nett)! A result like that should remind us all that comments such as “there's no money in the upper end of the Australian banknote market” simply aren’t correct.

The other stunning result in this sale was lot 717 - a double-headed 1977 50 cent coin, again apparently unique in private hands. This coin had a pre-sale estimate of $4,000, yet was eventually knocked down for no less than $26,500 ($31,601 nett). This is quite an important coin for Australian decimal error collectors apparently - I understand it is regarded as being the coin that started the market for Australian decimal errors and varieties, which explains why at least 2 collectors wanted it as the cornerstone of their collections of Australian decimal coins.

Another strong result at lower price level was for the British Indian “Star” pagoda, which made a hammer price of $600 ($715 nett). Proclamation coins are an evergreen area of Australian numismatics, in that they remain popular regardless of the economic cycle, and don’t seem to be subject to the vagaries of the broader market. There are several varieties of this particular coin that many Australian collectors aren’t aware of - there are at least two different obverse variations (as relates to the pellets around the star), ditto with the reverse (as relates to the length of the deity’s torso that is visible). This example didn’t appear to be a rare variety, so was most likely bought by a collector sick of waiting for one at a cheaper price!

Pre-Federation and Pre-Decimal Banknotes

The rest of the auction was a little hit and miss, and reflects the state of the broader market. The cheaper Australian pre-decimal coins were covered reasonably well by the internet bidders, as were a number of the pre-federation banknotes that followed them. The clearance rate for the pre-federation notes wasn’t 100%, but at the same time showed that there is a range of interest returning to this series, a healthy sign for the future. The same could be said for the pre-decimal notes - there was a range of interest, even if prices weren’t great. The £100 note was passed in at a price modest relative to where these notes have traded previously, however the notation on the reverse may have killed any potential interest in this high value denomination. The good news is that the two pre-decimal specimen notes both sold. The not so good news for owners of comparable notes is that they made between $30,000 and $43,000. That is literally a fraction of what some folks paid for these in the crazy Rare Coin Company boom days, however it is in line with the most recent auction sales for comparable notes - the last of these notes to sell (as opposed to simply being offered) was in London in December 2012, those notes made prices very similar to these.

For some reason there was little interest in the English coins, indicating that the estimates and or reserves were a little on the high side for what the coins were. There was some strong bidding activity when a few potential buyers crossed swords on items they thought were under-graded, undervalued or both, which shows that this is normally a popular area! The star replacement notes were again patchy, showing that collectors really are price and condition sensitive in this area of the market. The decimal specimen notes were soft again - some of the notes were passed in at levels they should have easily sold at, however we don’t always live in a world of logic!

The Australian gold coins were active, with the strongest price paid for the 1880 Sydney Shield reverse sovereign with the C/O legend error in NGC MS62. It made $13,117 nett. I was amazed to see the 1887 Sydney Jubilee sovereign graded PCGS MS62 passed in for $4,000 - that is an incredibly tough coin to get in mint state, and is surely worth more than that!

Pre-Decimal Proofs, PCGS Graded Pre-Decimal Coins

Action in the Australian decimal notes was at par, ditto with the rarer Australian coins. Although it wasn’t the most attractive Kookaburra penny to be offered in recent years, the Type 6 is incredibly rare, and was passed in at $23,000. The 1930 penny made a solid price, as did a really attractive 1938 proof penny. The other predecimal proofs were soft, indicating that collectors in this area of the market are also price and value sensitive!

There was a great range of PCGS-graded Australian predecimal coins in this sale - many, many attractive coins. I don’t know that the auctioneer could have done much more to open them up to bidding, they were priced right given the market, and advertised well. News that a major collection of pre-decimal coins were to be offered for sale at the next Noble auction sucked some oxygen out of the market for these coins, which explains the relatively limited interest in them.

I wondered aloud whether this market was finally returning to the levels we saw before the PCGS standard was adopted, and a few experienced observers commented that it could well be. It is entirely normal for there to be different phases of interest when an entirely new technology is introduced to a market, the “late majority” of registry set collectors that are entering the market now certainly are getting value for money relative to what these coins were selling for just a few short years ago.

I think IAG will be seen as a turning point in the way numismatic auctions are run in this country - the hybrid model of online and traditional sale is obviously quite hard to execute without sales volume, which means sales will probably be at either end of the technological spectrum - entirely online or entirely offline. Just who moves where and how they fare will be interesting to watch!

Noble Numismatics 111 Review - $5.45m Turned Over!

andrew — Sat, 23 Apr 2016 10:39:22 +0800

Noble’s 111 Auction was a few weeks back, and we’re already onto the next show, IAG on the Gold Coast (scheduled for 23/4/16).

Noble’s was a big event, in fact the biggest I can recall for years. The sale was held over 4 days (rather than the traditional 3), and due to the sheer volume of material on offer, the evening sessions ran well into the night each night.

An event like this can’t be held without incurring some significant expenses, and expenses always need to be paid, so I had an idea that there was going to be a good amount of material “on the market”.

I understand that the overall clearance rate for the sale was up at around 87%, which in an apparently soft market is a positive sign.

Australian Gold Coins

I didn’t fully appreciate it, but there were more Australian gold coins (sovereigns and halves) in this auction than I’ve seen for many, many years - perhaps since the Quartermaster Collection was sold in 2009.

There were coins from several different experienced and dedicated collectors on offer, as a combined lot they were a gold-bug’s delight to go through. Call me cynical, but I’ve long learned to disregard any description or pre-sale estimate I see published in an auction catalogue - actual grades can be either side of the grade attributed (beauty is in the eye of the beholder of course), and the estimate is only ever an educated guess at an items’ sales price at the best of times.

So some of the results in the Noble auction reflected that - certain items with strong pre-sale estimates were passed in, while other lots that didn’t appear to be of much interest at all, sold for multiples of the auctioneer’s published estimate. I thought there were some great coins on offer in this auction, and there were (generally) enough educated buyers with the budget and a confidence in their own powers of assessment to ensure most items found the right level. I shook my head at the relatively modest prices that some of the coins made, however I guess that’s what happens in a stage of the market such as the one we’re in at the moment - not everything gets bought, and if it does get bought, not everything makes what some market observers think it should.

Overall, I believe the results of this section of the sale reflect where the Australian gold coin market is at right now, active in certain areas, and illiquid in others. There’s no doubt at all that most buyers of numismatic gold these days prefer their coins to be slabbed, which in turn has an effect on the coins that sell, and the coins that don’t. Any gold coins with obvious hairlines or other surface impediments were left well alone.

Foreign, British and Australian Pre-Decimal Coins

The next day was for foreign and British coins, these sessions are always active with a knowledgable few, this auction was no exception. It can be hard for local collectors and dealers to go up against really knowledgable buyers from outside Australia, particularly if our currency is weak. If someone were to only check the prices realised against the pre-sale estimates, there were some incredible prices achieved in these sessions. It turns out however that the prices achieved were in line with the market those items normally have.

The Wednesday evening session contained the Australian pre-decimal or Commonwealth coins, and I understand it was the most lightly attended session for that area for quite some years. The Commonwealth coin market is enjoying a reasonable amount of supply at the moment - several long-term collectors are disposing of their collections for one reason or another, so there is something of an embarrassment of riches on offer. The prices realised in this session reflected that, interestingly the 1930 penny included in this session made the strongest price I’ve seen for quite a long time.

Checking over my auction statistics for the coin, there were 2 1930 pennies in the Benchmark collection last year - the first of those featured the London obverse (one of two in private hands and incredibly rare), the second was graded EF. Both of those coins made prices commensurate with their rarity and quality. We have to go way back to October 2009 to see another 1930 penny that made an auction price higher than the result in the Noble auction a few weeks back. While there are many examples of top-quality and historic Australian coins and notes currently selling for prices that we haven’t seen since the mid 1990’s, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the 1930 penny is not among them.

We didn’t really see a lot of action in the important pre-decimal proof coins in this auction, principally because there were only 2 examples offered up! I thought the Type 12 Kookaburra penny was put out at an estimate that would prevent it from being of interest to value-minded buyers, and the 1938 florin was not the most attractive example ever seen. There is more of this material in upcoming sales, and they will be a far better guide to this segment of the market.

Australian Banknotes

The auctioneer that Mr Noble uses for his auctions really eared his keep on Thursday - not only had he already worked two and a half days straight by the time Thursday evening came around, but that session had no less than 500 lots included in it. There was no shortage of bidders and observers in the room for the Australian note session, and it got off to a solid start with the colonial notes. One of the earlier items offered up was a piece of share scrip from the Bank of New South Wales (Australia’s first bank), issued a week before the bank opened for business. This item had been seen three times throughout 2005, it was passed in twice at $10,000, and eventually sold for $15,000. Fast forward to 2016 however, and the very same note made a hammer price of $20,000. There aren’t too many Australian numismatic items that are currently bringing 30% more than they were a decade ago, however I believe this result shows that the (few) banknote collectors that are active in the upper end of the market at the moment remain as sophisticated and understanding of historical importance as they ever were.

This session had a wide range of Australian pre-federation banknotes included in it, and it was good to see some solid liquidity for them coming in from right across the room. As is often the case, that liquidity was perhaps at the expense of price, and as much as those vendors will have exhaled a sigh of relief at finally saying goodbye to notes that others have found so hard to move along, they wouldn’t have been delighted with the prices achieved. Still such is the market at the moment - very few collectors appear to be prepared to go against the grain of the market at the moment, those that are really are getting great value for money. If that market is to recover and start functioning in a healthy way however, a base needs to be built somewhere. Will we look back in 12 months and say that the bottom is finally in? A few more auctions like this, with a healthy clearance rate and a range of active buyers, and we’d have to say that’s the case.

There was some solid competition for the few quality pre-decimal notes on offer, however that was less the case for the decimal specimen banknotes offered up. If there was ever a time to buy these notes (just before the “Next Generation Banknotes” are to be introduced to circulation, and at prices we haven’t seen for 20 years at least), it is surely now. I expect that there are plenty of collectors that appreciate the history and rarity these notes have, however they don’t really have the confidence to look beyond the current market weakness to consider where these notes might be at a time when the collector base has grown considerably.

Overall, the auction was a solid event - a lot of material changed hands, which is a great start to a market looking to get back on it’s feet. As with any auction, some results were stronger than expected, others were softer. A few more auctions such as this throughout 2016, and I believe a solid base will have been built

Noble Numismatics Auction 111 - The Last of the Big Sales

andrew — Sat, 02 Apr 2016 07:27:25 +0800

I was going to start this article by stating that Noble Numismatics Auction 111 is the largest we’ve seen for some time, however that may not be correct - many of them are large, even if this one does have some incredible stock in it.

What is correct however is that Mr Noble will be doing his darnedest to stoke the furnaces of uncertainty amongst his vendors and buyers by describing it as being “the last of the big sales”. When I first heard Jim talk like this in the viewing room, I felt that he must be reading the tea leaves of vendor numbers or some such, however as he’s said exactly the same thing in the viewing room for the last 3 or 4 Noble sales, such comments are now taken with a healthy grain of salt.

Wry commentary aside, Noble 111 is certainly an important and bountiful sale - it marks the 40th anniversary of Mr Noble being in the numismatic auction business, and includes a wide range of great material that should suit every type of collector. To put this anniversary in perspective, 2016 is probably not far past the 40th anniversary of me being able to tie my own shoelaces, so Mr Noble has some longevity in the Australian numismatic market.

Over that 40 year period, Noble Numismatics has become a bastion of the Australian numismatic scene. If you haven’t seen a Noble catalogue before - they are thick, orderly and clear documents that evoke something like Christmas morning levels of anticipation in many Australian numismatists. The thunder of the postman’s delivery has somewhat been stolen by the advent of the internet - auction listings are posted online a few weeks before the physical catalogues arrive, however the Noble Numismatics catalogues still evoke continuity in the numismatic market that spans several decades.

There’s something about receiving a catalogue that’s been set out in the same order, in the same style and with very different material in it - it is fresh and traditional all at once.

Many, if not most, of the most important Australian numismatic collections have been handled by Noble’s - a full set of their catalogues is essential for any Australian numismatic library. Noble's handle ancient Greek coins with as much ease as they handle bulk lots of pennies, pattern florins, gold proof sets and Ethiopian banknotes - the entire gamut of the Australian numismatic spectrum.

This expertise speaks to their position in the industry, and the role they play in it.

So what type of material is padding out the Noble 111 auction catalogue? The coin section alone is deep in material.

Following the standard offerings of bulk-predecimal and decimal coins, there are some interesting and high-quality coins from New Zealand. The first evening session has an extensive collection of Australian colonial coins in it, and it followed by a few more items from the Bill Mira collection. For those of you that don’t know, Bill Mira was one of Australia's foremost numismatists, and he passed away just a few months ago. While the coins with the Mira provenance listed this week may not be counted amongst the finest of their type, owing one is certainly a direct link to a man that spent many, many hours and grey cells nutting out the background to Australia’s first coins and paper currency. Bill would surely be pleased to see his items find new homes this week, hopefully at strong prices, however more importantly to buyers that appreciate the role these coins played in fleshing out the story of Australia’s first circulating coins.

Following the colonial coins Bill prized in his own research, several collections of Australian gold coins are offered up. Some of the coins in this session are seen in their described quality perhaps every 5-10 years, if at all.

The rarity and past sales performance of any coin or note doesn’t solely dictate the way it will be received at auction today - although rare coins and notes are nearly always rare, what was popular “then" may not necessarily be popular now. As we’re in a phase of the market that is re-setting values across the board, it will be interesting to see how these historic, rare and attractive gold coins fare in the current market.

It doesn’t take any more than 2 bidders at an auction to set a record price, so I’m not banking on any bargains being offered up this week. That said, if any of the more important Australian gold coins offered up this week fetch close to their published estimate, there will be some very satisfied bidders indeed.

Moving on from the Australian gold, while there are a number of attractive and rare Commonwealth coins offered up in this sale, I don’t see this as being a hugely fertile area. Much of the “gas” has come out of the Australian pre-decimal coin market, so these coins will either appeal to bargain hunters, or those that are prepared to go against the grain.

Moving on from the Australian pre-decimal coins, we have the coins of the world (from ancient to current times). We all know that Australia is (numismatically at least) a rather small place in the grand scheme of things, so it should not be surprising this season contains a large number of fantastic coins. The market for coin in other parts of the world is quite disconnected from the Australian market, so on that basis I do expect to see some action in this area.

One of the things about Noble’s catalogues is that some incredible coins can be listed rather innocuously within a range of pedestrian material, and only the most specialised collectors are able to identify them. As we recounted earlier, it doesn’t take any more than two bidders to push the value of a coin to unexpected levels, all bets are off!

The note sessions contain a range of interesting foreign and Australian notes, from all periods of history. One important collection of Australian notes comes from a New Zealand-based collector. Interesting because such a collection crosses “international" boundaries, and that isn’t often seen. I haven’t yet seen the Noble 111 printed catalogue (just go online already I can hear you crying!), so have reserved my investigation until I see those items in the flesh.

I consider myself to be reasonably technically savvy, however the absence of a printed catalogue here, so close to a major auction that I expect to be knee deep in, indicates that I may need to bend with the times and design a “workflow” that takes the 21st century in account. And here’s us thinking that numismatics is a pursuit that takes us away from the complex technology of today!

Downie 320 and Noble 110 Numismatic Auction Results

andrew — Sat, 05 Dec 2015 02:17:29 +0800

As seems to be the way with the Australian numismatic market at the moment, the last round of auction activity for 2015 took place across the space of a few weeks in mid to late November.

Downie’s held their 320th auction in Box Hill, and Noble’s held their 110th auction in the State Library of NSW. I’d regard both as a success - the clearance rates were as solid as one would want or expect from an auction in any stage of the market, and there were a few bargains and strong prices along the way.

Downie’s Auction 320

Auction Turnover: $965,595

Lots Sold: 3056 / 3530

Clearance Rate: 87.31%

Average Lot Value: $316

Lots Greater Than $10,000 Sold: 7

Most Valuable Lot Sold: 1855 Sydney Half Sovereign

Although Downie’s turnover for this auction was a little lower than that of their previous sale, it remains solid. The question of whether the new venue is affecting attendance is yet to be definitively answered, and while I know some dealers aren’t attending due to the “hassle” involved with viewing, and the “difficulty" of getting to the venue, even if those challenges are only perceived, they will still be a factor. It doesn’t take more than a few dealers to push prices up - those dealers may not even spend hugely themselves, but they can ensure successful bidders (either in the room or on the phone etc), pay more for the lots they win.

The room wasn’t exactly full in the sessions that I attended, there were perhaps no more than a dozen people (collectors and dealers combined) in the main Australian coin and note sessions. That clearly didn’t stop prices getting to the levels they did. The interesting thing about the atmosphere of the Downie auction was that it was much like one feels in a competitive poker game - everyone keeps to themselves, and is aware of everyone else in the room. There wasn’t exactly a lot of collegiality going on! The kind of bidder that attends sessions like these is fairly circumspect, and doesn’t travel to socialise!

It’s interesting that each of the 6 higher value lots sold were coins, and that 3 of those lots were 1930 pennies. A reasonable Dump, a Type II Adelaide Pound and an 1855 Sydney half sovereign rounded out the other 3 items. Activity in the Australian gold, QEII proof and Commonwealth coin areas was steady, without setting records. Not much gets past a crowd like this, most of the coins that had been heavily under-estimated brought the right money. Anything with colour was chased, as well as the raw items that were likely to “grade” well.

I thought the 1922/21 overdate threepences brought solid money for what they were, while the Star Newspaper presentation box and another Centenary florin in a Perth Foy’s bag made very solid prices of about $5,000 and $1,700 respectively.

The pre-decimal note session held a lot more interest to me personally, I see this as being a great area of value at the moment, although the pickings in this particular auction were admittedly fairly slim. Sales figures were fairly unremarkable - there was a fresh example of a scarcer Treasury series 10/- note offered, it did get away, however didn’t bring close to the estimate. An attractive R55 did exceed estimate, but brought a fraction what it would have just a few short years ago.

I didn’t stick around for the British coin sessions the next day, these included a fresh collection of English hammered and milled coins. This market is incredibly strong in the UK at present, the items in the Downie sale were all historic and attractive. The highlights of this session were a gold James I Unite, a Pontefract Shilling and a truly impressive silver Oxford Pound - this last coin made more than $19,000 nett against a $7,500 estimate.

Noble Numismatics Auction 110:

Special Note - Summarised prices realised figures for this auction haven’t been published yet, I’ll update this article as soon as they are.

The atmosphere in the room at the Noble sale was quite different, lots of camaraderie and fellowship between collectors that clearly know each other well. More noise, due to more bodies in the room.

The earlier sessions for mine were fairly unremarkable, however I thought the proclamation coins in the evening session were fairly well contested, right across the board from high quality items, to coins that had been heavily circulated. Ditto from gold right through to the copper.

The first two Holey Dollars were passed in, despite the fact the first had a provenance that could be traced back to the late 1800’s, and the second came from the collection of one of Australia’s most respected numismatists of the past half century, Tom Hanley. A heavily circulated Holey Dollar, with the perplexing T KNIGHT counterstamp did sell however. This auction contained no less than 9 1813 Dumps, the majority of which sold. If vendors are finally prepared to meet the market (as this sale seems to have shown), we’ll see an improvement in liquidity here.

The Adelaide Pounds didn’t fare quite as well, however that was most likely due to the estimates more than the health of the market necessarily. The gold coins were a fairly dry affair, the clearance rates weren’t flash, reflecting the quality of the coins on offer. Good coins did sell well however, with interest coming from a few new quarters.

The area of Australian pre-decimal specimen, pattern and proofs really has a number of traps for collectors that aren’t sharp. The stakes certainly aren’t small either, particularly when the difference in value between one attribution and another is measured in the thousands of dollars - one divergent opinion can have an incredible impact on resale value, and even the ability to resell at all. There are certain diagnostic tests that need to be met if a coin is to be designated a specimen, pattern or a proof, and I don’t reckon all of the coins in that session met them. Aside from that, values for less than FDC coins have certainly come back considerably.

There was no such concern at all when it came to the lot that included the four unofficial pattern Swan / Goose dollars. The last of these to come up at auction made about $22,000 about 2 years ago - the lot in this sale, which admittedly included a proof, specimen and lead trial strike as well as the gold proof, made a shave over $38,000. I was sitting behind the successful bidder, and didn’t see any signs of them slowing up at all.

The English gold, silver and copper sessions were as strong as I’ve seen them. In these days of live internet bidding, dealers and specialised collectors from across the world can bid just as if they’re there. There were some impressive English proofs in this sale, very seldom seen Down Under. They all drew spirited bids, as did anything else that was decent! The world notes were fairly strong, with plenty of bids from right around the room.

The evening session kicked off with the pre-federation notes, the figures here showed that the market is still suffering from a lack of new collectors keen to dip their toes. The few notes that did sell didn’t make strong prices, I think the lots that were passed in were simply estimated above the range that the market has shown to be reasonable in recent months. When I think of the really extended time that lapses in between auctions, I’m reminded of how important it is to get the estimates (and more to the point, reserves), right from the outset. The predecimal notes on offer were pretty lean, despite the advertised lot descriptions, to my mind there wasn’t a huge amount of quality material on offer.

I believe accurately graded and keenly-priced predecimal notes offer great value at the moment - they’re historic, scarce if not rare, and priced at a fraction of what they were 5-10 years ago. Anyone with an interest in this series is picking up some real value at the moment. I’d preface all of that by saying that grade is all important - natural notes are strongly preferred, and quality always rules supreme.

There was a wide range of notes, specimens and art proofs related to the Hay Internment note series offered up, and in the main they got away. That is a very specialised market, and I expect they won’t be seen again for many years. Sales of the specimen notes were patchy, if not soft. I believe there’s so little interest in these historic items at the moment that the old ratios of value (of certain notes in relation to others) have been forgotten, if only for the time being. This leaves great value for collectors that know their stuff, who knows how long this phase of the market will last! Star replacement notes were patchy and soft also - some truly great notes got away at bargain prices, while other material was estimated well above market, and remained unsold.

It’ll be at least another 2-3 months before the next series of auctions start to get underway, and it’ll be interesting to see whether that passage of time softens up the "strong” vendors that are holding out at the moment. Time will tell.

Roxbury's Auction 95 & Status Auction 319 Review

andrew — Sat, 07 Nov 2015 05:22:28 +0800

Brisbane is a great place to be in October, it's certainly easier to get around than Melbourne is in July anyway. The results for the most recent Roxbury's auction perhaps weren't to expectations however.

As usual, there sure were plenty of people in the room when the sale kicked off. The first mainstream items to be sold in this sale were the Australian predecimal coins. They were fairly hard going - make no mistake, there were indeed some nice coins in amongst them, however it seems items in this area of the market need to be either cheap or really special if they're to get away. There was the odd item in the British, world and decimal sessions that drew attention, as well as in the world notes.

The New Zealand specimen notes were the clear exception to that rule. This area was the domain of a few Australian dealers that are no longer in business, and it seems many of the buyers active up to about 2012 were relying mainly on the fact the notes were apparently quite rare. That is the case, but for prices to rise they buyers can't be rarer than the notes themselves, and that has been the case for the past few years now.

Out of the dozen or so lots offered, just one lot sold. Nowhere near enough interest if you're a vendor looking to sell, however this is what can happen in sections of the collectibles market from time to time. The Australian gold coins fared far better - quality items were keenly sought, items priced to sell got away also.

The evening session included a few higher valued items, and unfortunately they were hard work also. When I review the stats and see that out of the entire sale, only 2 lots out of the 1,200 sold were valued at more than $10,000. The rubber hit the road when it came ot the specimen notes however. 9 of the 10 lots sold, although the prices realised were qute shocking for some of the bidders in the room! I have little doubt confidence will return in time - the estimates for similar lots listed for sale in the coming Downie and Noble auctions don't seem to have taken any apparent softness into account.

If I told you the clearance rate for the pre federation notes in this sale was just 28%, you'd be forgiven for thinking the interest was quite limited. There were no less than 37 offered up however, which means that the number sold (11 notes), was still quite respectable. As with the decimal specimen notes, I thought some of these prefed notes sold at crazy cheap prices - prices the market hasn't seen in decades. I think (scratch that, I know!) they're getting to the stage now where collectors that haven't paid them any heed in the past, are now regarding them as an area they'd like to get into.

Given the average unit value these notes have (anywhere from $500 right up to about $15,000 at the moment, depending on whether we're talking about proofs, specimens or issued notes), this is no small proposition. That said, there are a number of other numismatic market segments that have that kind of an entry fee, so it's not unreasonable to think a resolute collector will be able to forge their own way in this historic area, and lock in some great value for the years to come.

Activity in the Australian predecimal notes was pretty par for the course - some sold rather cheaply, other items I thought fetched far more than they were worth, while others fell in between. No news there at all!

All up, with a total turnover slightly less than $500,000, only 2 lots above $10,000 sold, an average lot value of $400 and a clearance rate of 70%, Roxbury's 95 certainly didn't set the world on fire.

Status International 319 Review

A backlog of work in the S&C office meant I wasn't able to attend this sale myself, but I did get some mail bids in.
Without doing an empirical study on the subject, I reckon Status covers more lots per hour than any other Australian numismatic auctioneer - their sales generally run from 12pm until about 5pm, with a modest break half way through. Sale 319 had about 3,300 numismatic lots in it, which works out to be (get ready for this!) around 668 lots per hour, 11 lots per minute, and one lot every 5 seconds or so!

Now, to be sure, towards the end of the sale they do cover lots in batches to ensure everyone gets out before the cleaners arrive, however make no mistake, you don't want to turn up to a Status auction in an unclear state of mind.

The results of this sale show Status got more than half a million dollars in value away in that relatively short space of time, not to be sneezed at! The clearance rate was just 28% however, so as you might think, the average lot value was slightly higher than at other sales, and came in at about $500 / lot.

That said, there were only 3 items in that section of the sale that made more than $10,000 - each were Australian gold coins in attractive grade which was interesting, as that area of the market isn't the first one people think of as being robust at auction.

Aside from those, the items that drew the attention of multiple bidders were pretty much across the board - gold, pre-decimal proofs, pre-decimal coins, decimal gold coins, and tradesmans tokens. The results for the notes weren't as strong - the clearance rate was much lower, and there were far fewer lots valued in the thousands that sold.

While Status may not have ahd the hype that other sales have had in recent months, the results suggest it was just as active.

IAG Numismatic Auction 82 on the Gold Coast - the Biggest In Ages

andrew — Wed, 07 Oct 2015 09:10:18 +0800

It’s been a few weeks now since IAG had their 82nd consecutive auction on the Gold Coast - this is fortunate for me as I had a terrible cold at the time (diagnosed as man flu by un-named, entirely not male members of my nuclear family I might add), so I’ve had some time to recover from that weekend.

The results of the auction may not need as much recovery however:

Total Sales: $1,174,000 turnover (rounded out, not including the buyer’s premium)
766 / 800 lots sold for a clearance rate of 95.75%
21 lots with a value higher than $10,000 sold , with many lots sold in excess of the minimum 5 figure benchmark figure.

You might wonder why I’d focus on these figures:

The total sales figure can show us how active the market is - more coins and notes sold shows a higher level of activity;
The clearance rate shows how confident buyers (collectors and dealers) are in the value of an item at the ask price - this can give us a clear idea of how liquid the market is. Clearance rates per product category can show how liquid that product area is, and finally it can show how liquid certain items are;
The clearance rate for items above or below a certain value can be an indication of liquidity in that area of the market. Since the market has come off, I’ve used the arbitrary figure of $10,000 as a proxy indicator of the health of the upper end of the market. While certain Australian coins and notes are valued in the hundreds of thousands of dollars (if not millions), in my experience most collectors at their peak will top out with a maximum per-item spend of between $10,000 and $20,000. Certainly, many collectors will never spend less than $100 on the most valuable addition to their collection, while others will spend no less than $100,000 on an individual coin or note. $10k seems to be a figure that gives me an indicator of the upper end of the market at the moment.

Segment by segment, this is how IAG’s 82nd auction panned out:

Pre-Federation Banknotes:

Despite recent auctions, there was some movement in the notes in this auction. This may well be because the auctioneer had the courage to acknowledge where the market is at right now, with respect to clearance rates and prices realised. Other auctioneers have stubbornly tried for prices that have been clearly higher than the market average in recent months, which has heavily reduced their clearance rates. Does that mean that sellers shouldn’t punch a figurative wall when they see items sell for what many old-time collectors would regard as cents in the dollar? No, however an auctioneer needs to acknowledge reality if they want to match buyers with sellers, and in the main, that’s what happened in this sale. Certain notes didn’t find a home, however any rudimentary check of why shows the reserve dictated that result.

Australian Pre-Decimal Banknotes:

This section of the auction really only needs a 1-word description - active. Notes on every price level got away, ranging from rarer items at the upper end of the market, right down to average circulated notes at the lower end. This was perhaps the first area of the market to drop off following the GFC / Pettit and Rare Coin Company liquidation spree, and it seems it’s been among the quickest to find a base. The only exception to this rule were the Australian pre-decimal specimen notes - in my opinion, even though prices have come back significantly in this segment of the market, and even though sellers are not only punching figurative doors, they’re also kicking figurative dogs, reserves needs to come back even further if buyers are to come to the table...

Australian Star Replacement Banknotes:

While to some it’s odd that these notes would have their own category, the fact remains that some collectors specialise in these notes alone, prices of them can move quite independent of other notes in the Australian pre-decimal series. Price activity in this sale shows they’re liquid within the current price range. The prices I saw items sell for weren’t outside the range of prices I’ve seen comparable notes sell for in recent months.

Australian Decimal Specimen Banknotes:

Again, some collectors specialise collect specimen notes only, which is why I’ve isolated them from the other note results. Much like the pre-decimal star replacement notes, the sales results in this segment of the market were within the range established, as someone that rates them and was an active bidder in this sale, I begrudgingly concede results here were perhaps slightly stronger than expected.

Australian Gold Coins:

There were 3 Type II Adelaide Pounds in this sale - 1 in circulated grade, the other 2 in premium condition. Results in this sale were in direct contrast to the broader market in recent months - the more affordable coin was passed in, while the other 2 coins got away. If you’d asked me for a forecast before the sale what the results would have been (and a few collectors did), I would have (and did) state the opposite to that result. I’ve seen liquidity in the lower end of the market for these coins, however the reserve here was slightly higher than the market average for recent sales of comparable coins, which explains why it didn’t sell. The other 2 coins however really were a surprise - the only mint state or better Adelaide Pounds to sell in recent months / years have been around half of the prices achieved in this sale. I don’t believe half is too conservative a ratio either, so I reckon the vendors of these coins should be well pleased with themselves.

Holey Dollars and Dumps:

One of the real benefits of a down market is it’s a time for folks that've saved their money to get in and grab some bargains. The cheaper coin in this sale really was a bargain in my opinion - how long has it been since we were able to buy a genuine Holey Dollar with a history for less than $35,000? (Hint, it’s been some time). That the better coin (good VF) sold as well is a great indicator of the breadth of the demand for these incredibly historic coins. The cheaper dump sold as well, while the Dump that had a little more meat on it was passed in.

Pre-Decimal Proof, Pattern and Specimen Coins:

Check over the sales results for this segment of the catalogue and you’ll see the results weren’t fantastic - the great news is that the liquidity was far better than we’ve seen in other auctions recently, however the prices realised weren’t great, if compared to what such coins would have brought just 3-5 years ago. We don’t live in a world of if, so my opinion is that if subsequent auctions price their pre-decimal proofs within the range we saw here, we will have found a bottom to the market. This of course means most KGVI copper proofs are now retailing for less than $12,500, which will lead some vendors to wonder just why they bought their items in the first place...

I did see some exceptions to the rule here - I saw a few archival-standard coins get passed in at levels I thought were too low, indicating to me there is really a lot of value on the table for buyers that have confidence in this area of the market.

Australian Pre-Decimal Coins:

This was another active area - the clearance rate was pretty good, and good coins sold for good money. Each of the key dates offered up got away, showing this market continues to tick over. I should point out that there weren’t really any condition-rarituy coins included in this sale, as determined by PCGS anyway. That sector of the market I understand has less “gas” in it at the moment, however that should be hardly surprising given how far they grew in recent years.

Australian Error Coins and Tradesman’s Tokens:

Both of these fields are (mainly) populated by collectors that know nothing of the other segment - token collectors leave errors alone, while the inverse applies equally. That said, the results in this sale were the same for both segments. If there was an error coin or token that hadn’t been seen for some time (either by virtue of it’s quality or type), it was chased. If it had, it wasn’t. (Yes, that is actually a sentence I just typed!)

PCGS-Graded Australian Decimal Coins:

This has been a really fertile are of the market for some time now. Just how fertile? To give you some idea, there was a 1966 proof set in this sale that made more than $3,000… For those of you older collectors that haven’t kept up with this trend, yes - there are 3 zeroes in that figure. Higher than average quality PCGS decimal coins have been bringing strong money for some time, I expect this auction result was the first in the broader numismatic market that confirms that.

Overall, this really was a breakout auction - there was more activity in this sale than we’ve seen for some time, particularly at the upper end of the market.

Fingers crossed it carries on into the Sydney ANDA Show and the remaining auctions for 2015!

2015 ANDA Melbourne Show Report - Back to the Good Ol' Days

andrew — Tue, 25 Aug 2015 05:10:35 +0800

The 2015 ANDA Melbourne Coin, Note and Stamp show is now a distant memory, for those of you that weren’t there, you’ll be pleased to hear it was well attended by both dealers and collectors - it was almost like the good o’ days!

The queue on the Saturday morning was out the main door, no sooner were the main doors open than the show floor was coursing with buyers scrambling about to get first look at dealer’s stock, and sellers keen to get cashed up.

From a dealer’s point of view, a solid show has the following characteristics - strong attendance, informed buyers at all levels and in all areas of the market, a schedule that allows for time to network and socialise with other dealers, and educated sellers at all levels of the market.

Collectors pretty much expect the same thing - they want a good range of dealers that cover all areas of interest and budgets, as well as time to get around to see everything on offer.

I saw a few interesting and valuable items change hands, and heard that a number of dealers had bought some exciting, fresh material. We weren’t alone in being able to pick up some really cool items for our inventory, and ended up getting more away than we have at previous shows in 2015.

If I was going to rate this show against others in recent times, I’d have to say it was the best we’ve had for at least 12 months, if not longer.

Sunday opened quietly, however it seems that was only because people had slept in, the room was pumping again from lunchtime until much later in the afternoon.

Coinworks had some incredible material on display - the proof 1930 penny, several Holey Dollars and a series of Kookaburra pennies among them. I know Belinda was interviewed for 3AW radio earlier that morning, and did several interviews with print media also.

International Auction Galleries released the catalogue for their next auction, and held some viewing across the weekend also. That sale is shaping up to be a big one, they have no shortage of quality material on offer at figures in line with the market, it’ll be interesting to see how it fares.

ANDA was able to make available the third coin in the 2015 show $1 series, it proved to be just as popular as those from the previous shows.

All in all, it seems Victoria’s collecting public didn’t pay a great deal of attention to the latest economic bad news, as they were out in force across the entire weekend. When discussing the show with another dealer upon our return, my comment was that the people that are active in numismatics at the moment are by and large educated in their area of interest - they know how to identify good value in the series they’re interested in, and have confidence when they allocate money to their collection. All of the "fair weather collectors” that were active in the market up until the GFC hit have long gone, so the rest of the collectors that are out and about are quite happy to be buying and selling when others are sitting at home and worrying!

If Melbourne is any guide, the Sydney show scheduled for October is shaping up well.

2015 ANDA Melbourne Show - This Weekend 22-23 August

andrew — Wed, 19 Aug 2015 02:56:54 +0800

Our annual roadshow to Melbourne takes place this weekend, 22-23 August 2015. Although the venue for the successful 2014 ANDA Coin, Note and Stamp show was Dallas Brooks Hall in East Melbourne worked for everyone just fine, unfortunately the ANDA committee were advised when they went to re-book that it was slated for demolition! That demolition was approved in March this year, so the ANDA show is forced to move on, yet again.

This year, the event is being held at the Bayview on the Park Hotel in St Kilda (map below).

Although it’s not quite as central as the CBD, the venue comes with good reports for events such as this. More to the point, the bourse floor has been fully booked out by dealers wanting to attend, which is a great sign for an active show.

Melbourne has an active numismatic community - the Numismatic Association of Victoria has an active membership base, as does the Melbourne chapter of the International Banknote Society.

The 2015 Melbourne show follows hot on the heels of the release of the 2015 Pocket Guide to Australian Coins and Banknotes by Greg McDonald. Although there’s always a lot of discussion online about market factors such as this, face to face events such as the ANDA shows offer a rare opportunity for collectors to get up to speed with how others are taking in developments like this into their stride. It’ll be interesting to see how the broad range of collectors attending the show find the catalogue - if you’re there, do stop by the Sterling & Currency tables to have a chat about it.

Whether you’re buying, selling or looking to make a deal, I’ll be available to discuss any aspect of your portfolio. The afternoons tend to be a little quieter than the mornings are, so if you’re interested in a semantic discussion of whether the 1914-H or the 1915 florin is rarer in MS 63 or better, best to wait until the afternoon for that!

You’re welcome to email or call me before we get over if you’d like me to schedule some time in for you. If you have a big decision to make or would like to spend some time running over something, by all means touch base beforehand.

The Royal Australian Mint will be releasing the third coin in their popular series of 2015 carded mintmark / privy mark $1 coins - if you’re keen to continue on with the series, do let me know so I make sure I set one or a few aside for you.

Nicole and I will be at stand 18 for both days - I hope we see you there!

New Website Feature Added - Propose a Trade!

andrew — Wed, 19 Aug 2015 02:28:28 +0800

“Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.” - Oscar Wilde

If Oscar Wilde ever collected coins, he apparently wouldn't have allowed a lack of ready cash to stop him from growing his collection. For the rest of us mortals however, one of the few things that can stop or slow us down building our collection is money (or the lack thereof, more to the point).

If you’ve ever been keen on buying a coin or note from us, but your budget’s held you back, you might be pleased to know we’ve added a new button to our product pages - “Propose A Trade”. (Highlighted in yellow in the image here).

Most successful collectors build their collections not just by spending money, but also by trading or swapping items of value with fellow collectors or dealers. They’re alive to "the deal”, and can think outside the square in order to keep their collection moving forward.

Wealthy collectors swap items in and out of their collections just as much as those who work on smaller budgets - trading is one of the real thrills of collecting, it’s said that imagination often starts when a budget stops.

That said, a lot of collectors have never contemplate swapping something out of their collection once they’ve bought it.

If this is new territory for you, a trade or swap deal can help a collector acquire an item they wouldn't otherwise be able to afford, and can help a collector:

* Get rid of duplicates;
* Move on items they've outgrown;
* Say goodbye to a set they've completed;
* Get rid of mistakes;
* Make use of items they no longer like; and
* Take a profit on something they've bought cheaply.

If you see something on our website that you'd like to buy, and have any items in your collection that fall into one of the above categories, let's see if we can do a deal.

If you’ve done business with us before, you’ll know we’re pretty straightforward - our retail prices are online for the world to see (so there won’t be any mistaking what we'll sell your items for), and we can point you in the right direction if you need some help working out what your items are worth.

We're always buying inventory for our customers, and will consider pretty much anything numismatic as a trade! Here are just some of the things we'll take:

* Old pre-decimal coins (pennies, halfpennies and silver coins);
* Kilograms of old holiday change and paper money;
* Proof collector coins, sets and note folders from the mint;
* Used pre-decimal notes;
* Used paper decimal notes;
* Polymer decimal notes; as well as
* Bullion bars and coins.

Think through your collection now - do you have anything that you no longer need or want? Do you have something you can take a profit on? Do you have something you'd like to turn into something else?

In our experience, the best trade or swap deals happen when both sides know the value of the items they have, and both trade into something they want or can use.

If you’d like to see if we can’t do some business, here’s how to get the ball rolling:

Identify a coin, note or set on our website (as many items as you like) that you're interested in acquiring;
Make a list of the items you have that you're interested in trading;
Get clear on what the market's like for those items (we can guide you in the right direction if needs be);
Work out what you're prepared to take for them; then
Propose a trade!

We're active in many areas and levels of the market, so don't be shy about offering us one thing in order to get something else that's completely different. So long as we can get out of the item we're trading in at a reasonable profit, we're happy.

We buy all types of coins and notes every day of the week, it makes sense to buy from our own customers before we buy from the general public!

We look forward to setting up a trade with you soon, do get in touch if you have any questions at all.

My Review of the 2015 Pocket Guide to Australian Coins and Banknotes

andrew — Tue, 18 Aug 2015 05:39:33 +0800

The Pocket Guide to Australian Coins and Banknotes is to many collectors what the form guide is to punters - a printed publication that you must have.

Whether it stays on a dealer's desk (like mine does) or in a collector’s back pocket when they’re out and about at a dealer’s shop or at a coin show, it’s a common acquisition for many collectors, no matter what they collect.

The 2015 Pocket Guide to Australian Coins and Banknotes was put into distribution in early August, so is now out and about, providing collectors with at least one educated opinion as to the current state of the Australian numismatic industry.

The questions I know that many collectors are asking is, “Is the Pocket Guide still relevant?” and “Does the Pocket Guide reflect the market, or does it set the market?"

My answer to each of those questions is a firm yes. The internet provides today’s collector with more information than we’ve ever had before, so the Pocket Guide perhaps no longer holds the hallowed unimpeachable place in collector’s minds that is used to. That said, printed guides remain relevant in all other numismatic markets around the world, and Australia should be no different at all.

As to whether the Pocket Guide is a thermometer or a thermostat, I reckon it fills both roles. It needs to reflect changes in the market if it’s to remain relevant (which it does), and it can also guide decision making regarding buying or selling, even if only within a certain range of collectors.

As to how well it does it’s job as a thermostat, that’s open to some spirited discussion! I’m of the opinion that the Australian collecting public is probably like the army drill sergeant of old days - perpetually vigilant and with an eagle eye for slip ups. We won’t issue praise when a job’s done well, but will sure jump up and down when we think it’s not.

Values in the Australian numismatic market have of course changed significantly in the past few years - the GFC effectively brought to a halt the longest and most comprehensive bull market ever seen in Australian coins and banknotes. It took some time for the market to realise that, however informed buyers and sellers are now doing business at levels that are a fraction of where they were at just 5, and certainly 10 years ago.

That said, there have been some eye-watering prices paid for some coins (think condition-rarity pre-decimal and decimal coins, as well as gold coins). So the market is up in some areas, down in others.

If the Pocket Guide is to be an accurate thermometer of the market, it needs to reflect these changes. Does it meet that mark? In my opinion, in several areas it does, in others it doesn’t.

I’ve had some correspondence with Greg McDonald over this edition, my feedback to him was that certain sections are on the mark - I might argue the toss over the value of a specific coin or note, but I can live with the figures in certain sections. This is probably as glowing an endorsement as a price guide publisher can expect!

In other sections however, I believe are not in line with where the market is at. Not wrong because they don’t reflect my retail prices, not wrong because I have some opinion about what something should be worth, but wrong because they simply don’t reflect the majority of the transactions in that sector of the market.

If we were to presume that the price guide should show retail figures that informed collectors would be prepared to pay an informed seller for a certain coin or note in a certain grade. A long-winded definition of value could be: "The estimated amount for which an item should exchange on the date of valuation between a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm's length transaction, after proper marketing, wherein the parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without compulsion."

This means the figures in the guide shouldn’t necessarily reflect what the top-end dealers charge uninformed time-poor buyers, it shouldn’t necessarily reflect what coins are advertised for in the glossy direct mail catalogues, nor should it necessarily reflect what a collector is prepared to accept when selling directly via Gumtree or eBay. Nor should it reflect what a vendor got in a quiet auction. Something in between these extremes is probably about the mark.

With all of that in mind, here are my opinions on the figures included in the 2015 Pocket Guide to Australian Coins and Banknotes:

Proclamation Coins - these figures are OK

Holey Dollar and Dump - these figures are OK (recent sales by Noble and Coinworks of higher graded coins could point to a higher EF figure, otherwise they're OK)

Port Phillip Patterns - these figures are OK

Adelaide Pounds - these figures are OK

Half Sovereigns (This is where it gets a bit gnarly):

The about Unc column appears to be missing!

I think the figures for the 1855 half sovereign in lower grades are OK.

I think the figures for the 1857 half sovereign are OK

1858 RR legend error - Unfortunately, I don’t believe these figures reflect the market. My own sales have been at significantly lower prices, there’s been at least 2 auction prices lower still.

Type II Halves, 1858-1866 - again, I don’t believe these figures reflect the market. The price data looks to be in the wrong columns.

Greg advises there’s a chance some of the data could have been unintentionally moved around when the document was updated, that could well be the case.

Young Heads:

I can’t see that any changes have been made in values here, yet I know from personal experience that the market for these coins is down. Values for proof and pattern coins seem to have been omitted.

Jubilee and Veiled Heads, Edwards:

The changes made to the values for proof and pattern coins are OK, in the main they reflect the market. (I’d argue the toss on a few of them, but I’ll live with the changes made).

For circulated coins, the price changes made appear to be clumsy - simply adjusting prices by moving one column to the next doesn't reflect nuances of the actual market in my opinion. Again, this may have been caused by a software error when the document was updated.

KGV Halves:

To my eye, the figures in this section look to be unchanged. While this is undoubtedly the most active area of the half sovereign market, if the overall market for halves has changed, I expect it should be reflected here also. Some of these figures should be higher, not lower.

Sovereigns:

Values for the Type I's in higher grades have probably come down too far, values in the lower grades are OK however.

Type II, Shields and Young Heads:

In my opinion, the changes made in these sections are just wrong. It looks like they’re unintentional, and could be the result of that software gremlin.

There’s just no way that (accurately graded) UNC and better coins can be bought for the prices indicated. It’s a shame, as auction prices show that previously-published prices were too high. I don’t think accurate values should be well below current auction prices, much less current retail figures. It’s a real shame, as figures did need to come down to reflect the market, just not that far. If these figures do actually reflect the market, find me some coins that those prices as I’m a buyer!

Jubilees: the figures in this section are unchanged for some reason. If the whole sovereign market has dropped, these should have come down also.

Veiled Heads, Edwards and Georges:

Again, the changes made in this section really don’t reflect the market - I presume they’re unintentional. figures did need to come down to reflect the market, just not this far! This is a very active area of the market, if anything prices for better quality coins are stronger than they ever have been.

I think the inclusion of the 1920-S story is great, however recent auction results have been lower than in previous years, not higher (I believe the figures quoted should reflect that).

Halfpennies:
I’d like to see the proofs moved to their own section, they deserve it and it’ll make it easier to understand the circulating coin section. I reckon the figures for the 1916 mule have come down too far - auction sales have been higher than those indicated.

Figures for the 1923 in lower grades can stand to come down further.

For the circulating coins, Choice Uncirculated and Gem figures simply do not reflect the market for PCGS condition rarities. Values for such coins are the strongest they’ve ever been, not lower! Yes, those coins are PCGS graded, however that is the majority of the market at present - the guide should reflect that fact, even if the term Choice Uncirculated is translated into MS63RB and Gem Uncirculated reflects 65RD figures.

I now think the QEII proofs could show values across 3 grades (about FDC, FDC and condition rarities). This would show the reality of the breadth of the market - lesser coins are bringing less, really top coins are bringing much more than they ever have.

Pennies:

My comments for circulating pennies are the same as they were for halfpennies.

The 1930 penny looks to be up in Fine condition, but down in other grades - this simply doesn’t reflect the market.

Threepences to Shillings:

My general comments are as for the copper coins.

Florins:

My general comments are as for the copper coins. Figures for the 1932 florin are down far too low in VG - Fine. Key dates have come back in recent years, however you couldn’t buy a 1932 florin at auction for double what is quoted here.

The figure for the proof Canberra florin doesn’t reflect the demand for this coin in different grade ranges (a FDC, FDC and condition rarities). There have been a number of coins sold at auction for much more than $15,000 in recent months.

Kookaburra Patterns:

The figures here appear to be OK. I’ve seen the Type 12 Kookaburras sell for the figures quoted, but haven’t drilled into the other types in detail.

Hay Internment Tokens:

This market has come down significantly, unfortunately the figures do not reflect that. I think it’s a great idea to include the other military-themed items, however the information describing them could be too detailed for a pocket guide.

Decimal Coins:

This section is far too complex for mine - I think there's a case for splitting out the legal tender coins struck for circulation, and the NCLT (non circulating legal tender, such as coins ex proof sets, off-metal strikes etc). Greg advises that he arrived at this structure following vehement input from the most active collectors in this area, in which case if it suits them, all good and well.

I know the 1966 20¢ with the wavy baseline is now collected in all grades, more figures could be included, rather than less.

It’s not an area that I’m particularly active in, however I know that interest in decimal error coins is way up - the values included simply do not reflect what these coins are selling for at auction.

I know that individual decimal proof coins are now collected in a range of grades (even if only for the early dates), as a result, I reckon 3 figures could be included for these coins in future (about FDC, FDC and condition rarities).

Pre Federation Banknotes:

Values in this area have been removed, which is a real shame as there is a genuine demand for guidance on prices in this area. In my opinion, the classification system used for pre fed notes in previous editions of the Pocket Guide was far too complex, but rather than discard that section completely, I reckon it should be simplified and brought in line with reality.

Predecimal Banknotes:

Prices in this section are probably about right. I'll argue the toss about certain notes inc certain grades, however this is probably the most accurate section I’ve seen in the entire book. That’s not to say I agree with it completely, however a change needed to be made, and it looks like the changes have been reasonable.

Specimen and proof predecimal notes have been completely removed also. Just as with pre-federation banknotes, this market needs to be covered - there is demand for guidance on prices in this area. It is a difficult market to track (I know!), however it isn’t an impossible task.

Paper decimal notes:

Prices in this section are probably OK - the figures for standard prefix notes could come down further to reflect what they bring at auction.

Polymer decimal notes:

I believe prices in this area should be revised, simply to reflect what they bring at auction. Sure, these notes may sell retail for the figures indicated, however 7 times out of 10 they’ll bring far, far less at auction. The figures should be adjusted accordingly.

Paper and Polymer Specimen Notes:

Figures here are probably OK - I’ll argue that some are higher, and that some are lower than the current auction market, however in the main they're in the right range. That is probably as good as can be expected give the current volatility in the market.

All up, I reckon once the errors have been fixed, the changes made are a real step in the right direction in getting the majority of the market on the same page.

In summary, I believe many of the changes that’ve been made have done a lot to inform collectors as to where the market is now at.

It’s unfortunate some technical issues have resulted in some unintentional price changes - we’ll need to wait for the next edition to get an accurate idea of where market values are in those areas. I believe with some continued input from interested observers, figures can be made more accurate in those areas that have been updated, but are still shy of the mark.

So what do you think? Let me know what your thoughts are about the book overall, or the pricing in any particular section.

Noble Numismatics Auction 109 Report - Over $4 million in Rare Coins and Banknotes Sold!

andrew — Fri, 07 Aug 2015 04:25:53 +0800

Noble Numismatics 109 Auction is now done and dusted - as the room that the auction is normally held in wasn't available for the full 4 days that this auction was scheduled to be held, there were over 5,000 lots jammed into 3 days, rather than 4.

Throw into this equation the fact that Noble's needed to make use of a new online bidding platform, as well as the fact their usual auctioneer wasn't available, and there were several reasons why this auction might not have hit it's straps. There are now over 4 million pieces of evidence to show that those concerns were unfounded!

Make no mistake, the sale wasn't without it's hitches - some potential bidders weren't able to register for the sale, others found it difficult to bid, or at least bid to the level they wanted to, on the lots they had an interest in, and the days in the auction room really were quite long - the two I attended ran from 930 in the morning until 1030 at night.

The notable lots in this sale for mine were the old-time collections that were included, as well as the headline item of course - an Extremely Fine Holey Dollar that had a provenance attributed to Governor Lachlan Macquarie, the man that devised them and had them struck.

A really superior-quality example of any historic Australian coin or note is always going to grab the attention of the general public, this Holey Dollar was no exception. There was good press coverage of the coin leading into the sale - I saw articles in a range of the Fairfax newspapers, and I understand there was TV interest as well.

The old-time collections are in some ways far more interesting to many collectors - they include items that havn't been seen for decades, and that often spells opportunity!

Collector tastes can change significantly over time, as can grading standards (as much as many of us would like to think otherwise). This means that items that were of no interest decades ago can now be celebrated, values change significantly as a result. The old-time collections included in this sale were mainly world coins, I'll let you know how they fared.

Here are a few bullet points regarding the activity in this sale:

Error and variety coins were very strong - a few items made stronger prices than I expected;
Demand for the decimal NCLT coins (proof sets and boxed coins, etc) and bullion was quite competitive;
Circulated pre-decimal coins were popular at a level, however having said that, coins that had commanded decent money in recent years seemed to be a little off the boil. 1923 halfpennies continue to be cheaper than they were a few years ago, the 1925 pennies in better grade (ie Extremely Fine and better) that were in this sale were also making prices that raised a few eyebrows.
This sale had 4 * 1930 pennies in it - these have been a solid performer in very recent auctions, however 2 of the coins here were passed in. I can only put that down to the vendors pushing the limits of what the market will pay. The coins themselves were nice enough, however they were probably set about 10% over the market;
The activity in the Australian tadesman's token session was quite interesting - the clearance rate didn't seem to be that high, however there was good liquidity for the key rarities that were included. One of the old-time collections I mentioned earlier had some great tokens in it that hadn't been seen for decades, and while such tokens have been soft in recent years, each of the headline items got away this time round. It was positive to see that they were sold in the room to a collector too;
Proclamation and colonial coins were solid, the clearance rate was very high for the coins in that section;

The Main Holey Dollar - A Real Talking Point

The main Holey Dollar really was a talking point. I've been doing plenty of research in this area in recent months, and found it interesting how certain aspects of the provenance of this coin have been emphasised differently over the years. Although Noble auction 109 was the first public sale that this coin had appeared in, knowledge of the coin's provenance has been quite well known for decades - it's been highlighted in the publications by Mira and Noble several times. While the coin has previously been obliquely attributed to "a Scottish family", it now transpires that the family in question was apparently clan Macquarie, the good governor's descedents.

The placement of the counterstamps on this coin lent credence to the notion that the coin has personally owned by Lachlan Macquarie - the Holey Dollars were all struck rather haphazardly (with the counterstamps appearing in no particular set direction), so to find one in superior quality, and with the counterstamps aligned with the designs of the host coin, is quite remarkable.

While the value of this Holey Dollar can be justified just as much by the quality of the coin and the manner in which it was struck, it is one thing for the coin to come from a family "with links to Governor Macquarie" as the auction catalogue stated, it is quite another for "the coin to be "once owned by Governor Macquarie" goes on auction", as the headline in the Sydney Morning Herald article claimed.

Be that as it may, I counted perhaps 30 or 40 people in the room at the start of this session, and clearly they were keen to see if this coin sold or not. Against the pre-sale estimate of $350,000, bidding didn't open on the coin until the ask bid was brought back to $330,000 - not always a heartening sign, as that can be an indicator of weak interest. It didn't take long at all however for the bidding to roll on until it closed at a hammer price of $400,000, which works out to be $477,000 including the "juice" (buyer's premium).

From what I could see, the bidder was either a collector, or a client representative that wasn't known to the trade. Either way, this coin looks to have been passed into "fresh" hands.

If it wasn't an auction record for a Holey Dollar, it was certainly a very strong price, particularly as collector interest in these historic coins hasn't been robust in recent years. There were 2 other Holey Dollars that followed shortly after this coin - the planchet of the coin that immediately followed had a slightly oval-shaped planchet, and was dished to boot. Both of these characteristics are par for the course for Australia's first coin, however despite the detail, an ask of $180,000 + the juice was clearly more than the room believed it should bring. The next coin to follow after that was a good way lower down the scale - it had been fished out of the Shoalhaven river some decades ago, so was slightly porous due to being in water for so long. That didn't stop the coin from bringing just a few dollars less than $60,000, which I thought was great value, without being crazy cheap.

The gold coins that followed were active - the cheaper of the Type II Adelaide Pounds got away for a solid, price, while the more valuable example was probably set a little over the current market, and was passed in accordingly. Any sovereigns that are approaching condition rarity really are keenly contested these days, you can thank the PCGS set registry for that! Half sovereigns don't fare quite as well, particularly those from earlier dates.

The proof gold coins were patchy - 2/3 sold, even though there probably wasn't much to split the 2 better coins. Pre-decimal patterns and proofs remained patchy - the 1937 patterns were passed in, while the pre-1955 proofs only sold if they were remarkable quality, or if they were really cheap! An interesting development I saw was the inclusion of a range of PCGS-graded proofs from the QEII era, particularly coins graded 66 or better.

Such coins have circulated mainly in the online dealer and auction network, and haven't really been seen in the "traditional" auction circuit in decent numbers. It'll be interesting to see how market values cope with this broadening of distribution and effective increase in supply.

Collectors were pretty picky when it came to the predecimal coins - natural coins in great quality brought strong money, however other coins that didn't meet that criteria did not.

When it came to the foreign coins and notes, this is when the new bidding platform, as well as the relatively weak AUD was thought to come into play. Certainly, when bidding opened on the hammered gold English coins, bidding was keen. I didn't see any different pattern in demand for the balance of the material however - British coins from 1066 to date have long been popular here, British dealers have long bid on such coins in Australian auctions, nothing new to note on that basis.

Prices and bidding for the world coins matched the world market - (British) Indian gold and silver was strong, as were the Chinese gold and silver coins. British Commonwealth proof and pattern coins were very keenly chased, however the same can't be said for New Zealand banknotes. Don't get me wrong, the issued notes that were natural and in nice grade made strong prices, a lot of the pre-RBNZ specimens, as well as the other predecimal and decimal specimens suffered. They clearly haven't found their level yet. The banknotes from the rest of the world were quite keenly chased.

The Evening Session for the Australian Banknotes

The evening session for the Australian banknotes had some 500 lots in it, so was never going to finish early. The prefederation notes pretty much stayed on song - dealer support for specimens and printer's proofs was quite weak (if one particular dealer wasn't there, I'm convinced the clearance rate in that section would've been far lower!), however I did see some collector interest emerging, even if only at a price. Pre-decimal currency notes sold at a price, bidding on a few notes got as high as high as 50% of the previous McDonald book value (insert a shocked emoji face here), which shows that a few collectors still appreciate that really good quality pre-decimal notes are still just as hard to come by as they always have been.

It looked to me that the vendor/s of the decimal specimen banknotes wanted more than what the market is prepared to pay - even though bidding opened well below the advertised estimate on a range of lots, several of these notes were passed in at figures higher than the estimate! This shows the vendors only wanted to sell if the prices they got were strong, an attitude that just doesn't fly in the current market. Decimal banknotes were chased by those hardy souls that were prepared to do the work in viewing the bulk lots and who remained awake in the latter stages of the night!

The ancient coin sessions on the Thursday also included some of the old-time collections I mentioned at the outset, I thought some of those coins were far better than the normal retreads that are so often seen here, and looked to be great value.

So all up, Noble auction 109 was an active sale - we probably didn't get much news out of it, but $4 million in sales over 3 days has to be a solid sign that there is liquidity in the Australian numismatic market for coins and notes that are graded accurately and priced right.

Rembrandt, Picasso and How NOT to Bid at Auction

andrew — Wed, 15 Jul 2015 03:25:16 +0800

I recently came across an interesting note in an auction in Europe, it featured the notation “NOTE PRINTING AUSTRALIA” across the top, and featured a portrait of the Dutch artist Rembrandt across the front.

It obviously wasn’t an actual Australian currency note, however it was clearly official - my question was, just what was it printed and used for? I had no idea why Rembrandt was chosen for the design, however it sure seemed interesting.

I bid on the note and was able to secure it, once it arrived safe here in old Fremantle town I set to finding out more about it.

In hindsight, this is something I should have done BEFORE I bid on the note, as it turns out there are a few of them around, and they are less rare than I first expected!

After trawling through the internet for a few hours, buying a book and registering in a collector’s group or two, I’ve since learned that there is a whole market for “test” notes.

The 3 Different Categories of Test Note

It turns out that bank note printers and cash management companies show their expertise by printing currency samples, and that these are broadly referred to in numismatic circles as currency test notes or promotional currency notes.

1. Promotional Currency Notes: The most common category of currency test notes are printed to showcase printing technology and anti-counterfeiting measures, and are generally distributed at international currency trade shows to potential printing customers.

2. ATM Test Notes: A second category of currency test notes are printed to test acceptance of a new series of notes by ATMs and currency counting machines; as well as to enable banks and cash handling firms to practice handling new types of note.

3. Durability Test Notes: The rarest category of test notes are those printed by banknote printers to test the printing and durability of different substrates, inks and security devices.

In the absence of any information to the contrary, I believed this note had a shot at being in the third category, mainly because the reverse of the note had only been partially printed.

If you look down the bottom of the note, you’ll see Picasso’s name...

My father and his father before him were both tradesmen (fitters and turners the both of them), and as they’ve both now passed away, some of my most prized possessions are the tools they used in their working lives. It’s cool holding something that was used in putting a particular project they put time, effort and grey matter into. (It’s probably not cool not knowing what some of those same tools are, let alone not knowing how to use them, but that’s a whole other story!) In the same way, note collectors can find owning specimen and test notes interesting - they’re both important in the production of the notes we use.

I couldn’t see Note Printing Australia handing out partially-printed notes to potential customers as samples - surely they would’ve waited until the intaglio phase (the raised black lines showing the main design) was run across the reverse of the note if that’s what they were using them for?

My hunch that these test notes were printed to test the durability of the clear (blue) window was heightened by the fact there were 3 different types, each with a different intaglio print on the clear window.

1. Painter’s palette;

2. Round dot; and

3. Portrait of Rembrandt.

In my internet tootling I’ve since counted up a total of about 10 different examples of the test notes, a mix of the different clear window types.

That makes them slightly more readily available than I would’ve expected, and given the fact they’re all still in mint condition, without information from people that were directly involved in their production, it’s hard to determine whether they were in fact printed for to test the durability of the different clear windows, or whether they were simply printed as promotional notes.

Either way, they’re scarce and definitely of interest to note collectors down under.

How NOT to Bid at Auction

If I’d clarified all this BEFORE bidding on the notes, I would’ve definitely bid less than I had. Fortunately, even though I got the items for less than my maximum bid, and even though the prices I paid for the notes weren’t massive, I was flying blind to a degree, and that isn’t a good habit for a collector, much less a dealer to have.

So, how not to bid at auction is to just get really excited about something, then throw a whole lot of cash at it without knowing at all what the damn thing is actually worth!

I knew full well when I submitted my bids to the auction that there was a chance I’d end up with something that was worth less than I’d paid for it, however little did I know that a bit of time invested in some research, as well as a few dollars in a book that covered the subject, would have saved me hundreds of dollars.

So there we have it - I picked up a few interesting items I’ve never seen before, and reminded myself to make sure I do as much homework as I can before bidding on something at auction.

So - have you bid blind for something at auction? How did you end up? Are you a fly by the seat of your pants collector or do you only bid on something when you know EXACTLY what it’s worth?

Numismatic Roadshow Results - The 1930 Penny Reigns Supreme Across 5 Auctions In 3 States

andrew — Sat, 04 Jul 2015 12:21:39 +0800

It’s been a little over a month since we had our numismatic journey across 3 states in a week or so, let’s take a brief look over each auction first, and I’ll review the statistics afterwards:

International Auction Galleries Postal Sale 5: This was perhaps the first solely-online auction held by one of Australia’s mainstream numismatic auction houses, so was notable for that reason. The material on offer wasn’t ever represented as being the cream of the crop, more a solid offering of garden variety items across the board. This model seems to suit the current market, if the clearance rate was anything to go by. As a dealer, I found it quite hard to find anything at all I could use, showing just how accessible these online auctions are to active and confident collectors.

Status International Auction 315 (Sydney): As the Status auction was being held the day before Roxbury’s, I got in and reviewed the inventory in the sale the day before, and left some mail bids. I can’t say there was a whole lot of collectors or fellow dealers with me in the viewing room, which was perhaps a reflection of how tough it is for auctioneers to get the latest and loudest coins or notes that are in strong demand. This was easily the biggest sale of the four held in late May, however as the sales results show, the majority of it was passed in. I can’t say there was any pattern to the clearance rate, however more coins got away than notes.

Roxbury’s Auction Auction 94 (Brisbane): Roxbury’s was fairly well attended in the room, however there perhaps weren’t quite as many people as there have been in the Roxbury’s sales held last year or earlier this year. This auction had more high-value rarities in it than the other sales did, however they were only able to get 4 items away with a hammer price higher than $10,000. Roxbury’s was notable for the fact it had 45 pre-federation notes in it (issued notes, specimens and printer’s proofs) - this is more than most auctions in recent years. Unfortunately, only 1 of those notes sold, and even that was a private trader’s note that made a hammer price of less than $1,000! A result like that really can be quite hard for the market to digest - I could see collectors in the room thinking “None of this is selling at all! The market is totally dead!” My conclusion was different however. Pre-federation notes have been selling privately and via auction in recent months, just not at the prices indicated in the Roxbury’s catalogue! The reality is that the market is presently in a phase where if collectors and dealers are expected to pony up at auction with hard cash, they want that effort and risk taken into account with the price. Educated collectors know that demand is thin in this area of the market at the moment, and judging by the results here, they’re prepared to wait for items in their area of interest to turn up cheaply. I believe that vendors really need to keep this in mind when approaching the market - nobody likes taking a loss, and nobody wants to "give” a rare note away, however as the results of this auction show, vendors need to meet the market if they’re going to have any hope of exiting the market.

The same comments applied to the pre-decimal proof coins as well as the specimen banknotes in this sale - they needed to be on the market at a level in line with recent auction results for collectors to entertain buying them. The rest of the bread and butter items in this sale sold quite well, showing that sections of the market remain alive and well!

Downie’s 319A The Royal Australian Mint Master Collection (Melbourne): The first portion of Downie’s sale 319 contained items formerly in the RAM “Master Collection”, coins that "were not produced for sale – rather, they were produced as a quality standard to inform the level of production.” While the date range of the coins included didn’t stretch back any earlier than the late 1980’s, there was still keen interest across the board. Very few coins from the RAM “Master Collection” were passed in, showing not only were they on the market, but that there was collector demand for them. An interesting note is that a number of the coins had been apparently marked in ink by RAM staff to identify them as being in the Master Collection - this is thought to have a reasonable impact on their acceptability for grading by PCGS. The most notable result was a 2004 $1 Eureka commemorative coin without a mintmark that made $2,300 hammer price. Not bad for a $1 coin!

Downie’s Auction 319B (Melbourne): Leading into this sale, I had the thought that it wasn’t going to far particularly well. In the time since their prior auction, Downie’s had lost a senior staff member from the auction department and had relocated from Melbourne’s CBD to the suburbs. The results show yet again that the market is bigger than any one individual - this auction had easily the highest turnover out of all of the sales held in that fortnight! The items on offer were interesting right across the board - Australian gold, copper and silver coins, foreign notes and coins, predecimal proofs and banknotes. The majority of the sale had been estimated in line with the current market, and had been (apparently!) graded in line with market expectations, so the clearance rate was quite healthy. Prices were strong in some sections, and quiet in others, however that happens at any stage of the market. Of all the sales held across those 2 weeks in May, I though this auction showed best where the market is at - items will sell, no matter which section of the market we’re talking about, provided the items offered up are graded within market expectations, and estimated within the trading range of recent months.

The summarised figures for each auction gives us an idea of how the market is tracking at the moment:

Auction	Turnover	Total Lots	Sold	Clearance	Av. Lot Value	Highest Value Lot Sold
Status International	$431,480	3822	1101	28.81%	$392.25	$15,000 - 1930 Penny
Roxbury’s	$390,430	1069	776	72.59%	$503.13	$13,000 - 1930 Penny
Downie's 319a (RAM Master Collection)	$240,026	1146	1088	94.94%	$220.61	$44,200 - 2012 Kilogram Gold Coin
Downie's 319b	$760,988	2976	2366	79.50%	$325.76	$15,000 - 1930 Penny
International Auction Galleries	$277,897	700	616	88.00%	$451.13	$17,000 - 1930 Penny
TOTALS	$2,100,821	9713	5947	72.77%	$378.58

Here’s what I take away from the statistics above:

1. Turnover ain’t what it used to be! 5-10 years ago, I would’ve expected to see turnover figures 2-5 times those outlined above. Although the number of lots sold is clearly within cooee of what auctions used to sell, the total turnover of the average auction is a fraction of what it used to be.

2. Collectors and dealers are prepared to buy, provided the items offered up are graded within market expectations, and estimated within the trading range of recent months.

3. There are far fewer collectors (and dealers) prepared to spend thousands of dollars on a single item than there used to be. It’s incredible to consider that out of nearly 10,000 items, only 13 of the lots sold brought a hammer price higher than $10,000! The highest value lot sold was a kilogram gold coin that basically sold for it’s scrap metal value, the highest value lot sold in each of the other auctions was a 1930 penny.

The 1930 Penny Still Reigns Supreme

For my mind, this was the main fact to take away from that fortnight’s activity, out of all the rare and valuable coins and notes that can be found in Australia’s numismatic history, the 1930 penny still reigns supreme as the collectible that collectors still have confidence in when the market is at it’s quietest.

I reviewed the recent auction statistics for the 1930 penny, and can let you know that despite the fact the market is currently tough for most numismatic items valued in the thousands, the clearance rate for the 1930 penny has been higher than the clearance rate for the rest of the market! Out of the 46 1930 pennies offered up over the past 2 years, only 7 of those didn’t sell. One of those was the extremely rare London obverse type, the others were either badly damaged or had been quite clearly estimated well over the current market.

Just goes to show why it’s been Australia’s most popular rare coin for the better part of the past century!

The PCGS Registry Set and it's Impact on the Australian Numismatic Market

andrew — Fri, 22 May 2015 12:37:23 +0800

The Australian numismatic market has been fundamentally affected in the past two years or so by the advent of the PCGS registry set.

This new factor in the market has fundamentally altered the way many Australian coin collectors build their collections, and may well have permanently changed coin collecting in Australia.

This article explores just what a registry set is, why it has changed the way collectors build their collections, and what they mean for collectors and vendors in the Australian rare coin market.

So What Is a Registry Set?

PCGS describes the registry set as “...a powerful inventory management tool built for coin collectors of all levels.”

There are a number of aspects to a registry set, some of them are quite complex. What follows is an earnest attempt to cover off the key points as clearly as possible:

A registry set is an online record of a set of coins that have been independently graded.

The details of each coin in the set have been registered with the company that independently graded the coins.

The public record for each coin within a set displays identifying information about the coin, information such as the coins’s certificate number, it's grade, several statistics relating to the graded population of that coin, and a field for comments by the owner. Digital images are generally shown for the coin also.

The private record for each coin within a set can also include the coin’s cost, the date of purchase, as well as where the coin was purchased from.

Only coins that have been graded by the grading company can be included in their registry sets.

Once a set has been registered, the extent of completion, as well as the quality and rarity of each of the coins in a registry set has now been empirically measured - to two decimal places no less.

This numerical measurement of a collection means a registry can be directly compared to similar sets formed by other collectors, and enables the owner “to compete for awards and recognition”.

It’s this final sentence that explains why registry sets have fundamentally changed how many collectors now build their collections. It sounds fairly innocuous, however it is an incredibly important change.

"To Compete for Awards and Recognition"

It would be completely absurd to assert, even for a second, that prior to the advent of the registry set, coin collectors didn’t compete for rewards and recognition.

Collectors have fought each other for the right to own prized coins for as long as coins have been made - 2,500 years at the very least. Some of the rewards of numismatics come from using intelligence, strategy or audacity to outwit fellow collectors to secure an item for a collection.

Collectors from all walks of life have long shared their coins with their family, friends, colleagues, fellow collectors and with the world at large.

Further, for many collectors, the social cachet that comes with people knowing that one owns an important or valuable item is just as important as owning the item or collection itself!

Some of the most famous coin collections ever formed are celebrated because the collectors that formed them were driven and determined to build a collection that would be celebrated by others for it’s quality, rarity or history.

The desire by a collector for recognition has long been seen in a packed auction room, when a buyer exhibits pride, satisfaction and pleasure in securing a hard-fought auction lot. The reward is owning the lot, the recognition comes from everyone knowing who bought it!

Outside the auction room and away from the bourse floor, competitive numismatics in the traditional sense has been quite a different activity altogether.

Old School Competitive Numismatics - the Exhibition

Prior to the advent of the registry set, if numismatists ever competed against each other for recognition, it was via a numismatic exhibition. Numismatic exhibits are often held in conjunction with a coin or note show, whereby a range of collectors prepare exhibits that display their collections, and show the history behind them.

Awards for the best numismatic display at an exhibition are generally judged based on factors such as the originality of the theme, the quality of the numismatic information displayed, the attractiveness of the display, as well as the degree of difficulty involved in building it.

Awards for a numismatic exhibition are generally judged by a panel of experts, which in itself can be a confronting and challenging process.

While many collectors might like to display their collections to those interested in viewing them, many would have been put off by the logistics involved. Preparing a successful numismatic display involves no small amount of effort, can pose a security risk to the items being exhibited (and the owner), is restricted to being seen at a specific time and place, and can obviously quite public.

Although collectors have quite clearly competed for recognition and rewards for thousands of years, there can be no doubt that a registry set enables collectors to exhibit their collections in a far more immediate and compelling way than they have ever been able to before.

An Online Registry Set - Immediate and Compelling

The process of setting up a registry set is fairly simple - a collector will:

Set up an account with one of the large independent coin grading companies such as PCGS or NGC;
Choose the set that they wish to register from the list of sets available; and finally
Add the certificate numbers for the coins that they own to that set.

The total time taken to “register” a set is dependent on the number of coins in the set being built - it’s all pretty much a point and click process, and is quite painless.

The thing about building a registry set is that the comparative information on the set is updated in real time as each new coin is added to the set.

As soon as a collector has finished adding all their coins to their registry set, they can see how it ranks against all other comparable sets being built, what the average grade of each coin in their set is, and the percentage of the set they’ve built to date.

The real innovation of the registry set is that the feedback loop to the collector once the data has been entered is incredibly short - the collector gets to see the results immediately.

The impact this has on buying decisions is incredibly powerful - once a rank, grade or rating changes, the wisdom of a purchase is affirmed straight away. Acquisitions that don’t add as much to a set’s score as the collector would like also provide feedback - it underlines exactly the type of coin that should have been bought with an increasing rank in mind!

With this immediate feedback loop in place, no sooner does a collector see the score of their registry set change, they’re already planning their next purchase.

That is what makes the registry set such a "powerful collection management tool", and a factor in the marketplace that active collectors and vendors need to appreciate, even if they aren’t building registry sets themselves!

I’m convinced it’s that short and powerful positive feedback loop that has caused the prices of condition rarity coins to rise so strongly in years past. The mental preparation that leads to determined bidding on the finest known coins with a laser-like focus really begins with a stark assessment of a registry set, and furthermore, what’s required to push it ahead even further.

Original Surfaces Get You In The Door

In the “olden days" before independent grading took a sizeable hold of the Australian numismatic market (and we’re going to have to coin a new acronym that describes the two different eras - the days before independent grading and the time since!), the vast majority of collectors bought coins in a series within a grade range they were comfortable with. Depending on the series being discussed and a collector’s budget, that grade range mint be Uncirculated or better, it might have been between Very Fine and Extremely Fine, it might have been about Unc.

If a coin was attractive to the eye and was affordable for the advertised grade, it generally passed muster and a collector was proud to own it. While some collectors and dealers might have turned away from a coin that’d been dipped, cleaned or had an odd tone, in my observation they certainly weren’t in the majority. If a coin was an attractive mint-state example and it had minor hairlines across one side or bag marks in the fields, it was still widely regarded as being an acceptable coin.

Today's collector however (that is, a collector that has only ever bought and sold coins in an environment where pretty much all coins have been independently graded) comes to learn pretty quickly that only coins with original surfaces (both for tone and contact marks) will be independently graded, and therefore only coins with original surfaces qualify to be added to their registry set.

The question of whether a rare, historic and attractive coin is worth owning if it can’t be added to a registry set is one that'll be answered by most collectors (in the negative) pretty damn quickly, however it is probably worthy of being used as a Buddhist kōan - “...a nonsensical or paradoxical question for which an answer is demanded, the stress of meditation on the question often being illuminating.”

I'll set aside meditating on that question for another day, and will observe that the past few years has seen the market drop markedly for coins that no longer have original surfaces. Whether these coins were quite popular, accepted without question and were even keenly contested for by collectors in years past is not of any interest at all to today’s collector. If a coin can’t get independently graded these days, it won’t even be considered by many collectors today, regardless of it’s provenance, eye appeal or past desirability. Unless a coin has original surfaces, it won’t even be considered for grading, much less added to a registry set.

Make no mistake, many collectors are now better off that coins that have been cleaned, artificially toned or impaired in some other way are not widely traded on the open market. Many a collector has been unwittingly caught out in years past by buying a problem coin that was spurned by collectors or fellow dealers when the time came to sell it.

There Is Now An Overriding Emphasis on Quality

Not only do the majority of collectors these days insist only on coins with original surfaces, they are now more focused on quality than they ever have been.

It isn’t a new thing for collectors to aspire to owning coins in the best possible condition, collectors have almost been hard-wired to find historic items in premium condition since the dawn of time! A rare or even a common coin in superlative condition has always been compelling to collectors, and this is precisely why independent grading came about.

That said, I believe it’s fair to say that more collectors today use quality as a key determinant in choosing which series they collect, as well as which coins they collect.

I’ve met more than a few collectors that have chosen to be active in a certain series of coins simply because that is the series their budget permits them to buy "condition rarities” in. A collector might have more interest in perhaps an old series of coins, however as they can’t afford to buy the finest condition examples in that series, they set their sights in a different area because it’s affordable.

The old line from that old Crosby Stills and Nash song comes to mind - “If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with.” Now that many, many collectors choose to focus not only on coins in premium condition, but also on sets that include coins that are affordable in premium condition, it has played a very significant role in determining not only which coins bring the strongest prices, but also which series are active and which ones are not.

In years past, it was standard practice for many collectors to buy “key date” coins in mid grade, sometimes even accumulating quantities of them. Now that the registry set is a function of the numismatic landscape, collectors that might have followed that path in previous years now prefer to purchase "common date” coins in premium or even superlative condition.

What This Means for Collectors and Vendors Today

After taking in this appraisal of the market, I hope that the consequences of the registry set to collectors and vendors today is patently clear:

Coins that do not have original surfaces no longer have the appeal they used to - this is a trend that I expect will become more apparent as time passes. Anyone that is buying coins now really needs to be keenly aware that “raw” coins (that is, those coins that haven’t yet been independently graded) that don’t have original surfaces are very difficult to sell at a price close to what such coins commanded in years past. If you own a coin that doesn’t have original surfaces, you may be best served by cutting your losses sooner rather than later - I don’t see any changes in the market that will cause demand to increase for such coins in the medium term at least!

If you sell a coin today that you think is in premium condition and you don’t get it independently graded, you’re almost certainly leaving money on the table. I have no doubt there will be more than a few old-school collectors reading this article who have a great deal of disdain for independent grading, slabs and the collectors that buy them. They will no doubt say any collector that consistently pays a premium for top graded coins is crazy, and further that they’ll have no part in it.

I would be extremely surprised however if such collectors don’t get their coins graded before offering them for sale, not with the stratospheric prices currently being paid for coins in premium condition. The simple truth is, if you sell a coin today that you think is in premium condition and you don’t get it independently graded, you’re almost certainly leaving money on the table, perhaps thousands, if not tens of thousands of dollars.

The registry set has caused collectors to focus on quality more than they have at any time in the history of the Australian numismatic market. It has also caused demand to drop off significantly for coins that don’t have original surfaces.

Postscript:

I’ve written this article to explain the role that the registry set plays in the market to collectors that may not have fully understood it in the past. I’d love to hear if you have any questions at all about the points raised. If you think that some of the points I’ve made here are inaccurate or need to be corrected, please use the comments field below to let me know.