Crazy Crabbers | Giants Baseball Blog

Giants Sign Ryan Theriot

2012-01-27T09:22:00.001-08:00

Jon Heynan of CBS Sports is reporting that the Giants have signed former Cardinals shortstop Ryan Theriot.

The deal is reportedly for $1.25 million with incentives that could push it to $2 million.

My initial reaction is that this isn't a bad deal, certainly doesn't break the bank. In addition it sets up the possibility of a shortstop platoon as Theriot right handedness compliments Brandon Crawfords left handedness. He offers some value offensively with a career 107 wRC+ against left handed pitching but he is a liability on defense so he should really be used sparingly in the field especially with more ground ball heavy pitchers.

Theriot is a decent utility infielder (which the Giants seem to cornering the market in) but really shouldn't be expected to be a full time starter making him a decent fit for the Giants. This does create some questions about who will make the final 25 man roster where the Giants seem to have stockpiled quite a few middle infielders, I guess it will come down to the classic Spring Training competition that the team loves.

This isn't a flashy signing and as long as Bruce Bochy doesn't develop a veteran crush and start him everyday this should be a solid pickup for the team.

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Crazy Crabbers Top 20 Prospects: Eric Surkamp

2012-01-27T08:52:00.000-08:00

In his minor league career Eric Surkamp has but up some very impressive numbers, at any of the stops where he made more than just handful of starts he has never posted a FIP above 3. He has shown the ability to command his pitches and even without even average fastball velocity he has shown the ability to strikeout batters at a very high rate.

Last year Surkamp dominated the Eastern league and put to rest any concerns that there would be lingering issues with the hip injury that cut short his 2010 campaign. His 2011 season ended with a taste of the majors where he made 6 starts where he pitched a little timidly and was unable to put up the same type of numbers that he had shown in the minors. His struggles could have been partially due to fatigue after pitching nearly 40 more innings past his career high so it will be interesting how he does going forward.

Surkamp features a high 80's fastball that he has been able effectively place his in the minors but struggled with in his stint in the majors. His out pitches are an average change-up that has fared pretty well against righties and a plus curve ball that is his best strike out pitch.

Without premium (or even average) velocity on his fastball his ceiling is probably limited to a back of the rotation starter but the good news is that he seems to be close to already being a league average starter and right now is number one on the Giants depth chart of replacements should one of the starters go down with an injury.

Season	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
2008	Giants (R)	0	0	0	2	0	3.1	18.90	0.00	0.00	.500	66.7 %	2.70	-1.00
2008	Giants (A-)	0	2	0	5	4	14.0	10.29	3.21	0.64	.442	65.0 %	6.43	3.13
2009	Giants (A)	11	5	0	23	23	131.0	11.61	2.68	0.41	.369	70.3 %	3.30	2.20
2010	Giants (A+)	4	2	0	17	17	101.1	9.59	1.95	0.44	.288	68.0 %	3.20	2.54
2011	Giants (A+)	1	0	0	1	1	6.0	7.50	1.50	0.00	.250	100.0 %	0.00	2.03
2011	Giants (AA)	10	4	0	23	22	142.1	10.43	2.78	0.32	.298	80.3 %	2.02	2.37
2011	Giants	2	2	0	6	6	26.2	4.39	5.74	0.34	.333	66.5 %	5.74	4.68
Total	- - -	2	2	0	6	6	26.2	4.39	5.74	0.34	.333	66.5 %	5.74	4.68

Best Tool: Surkamp is a pretty polished pitcher with several good things going for him. His best pitch right now is his curve ball which he has used to great effect in the minors to rack up impressive strike out totals. He also is able to get by without a good fastball by placing the pitch where he wants it to go so that batters have trouble barreling him up for loud contact.

Needs to work on: In his brief stint in the majors he didn't show the same aggressive attacking of the zone that he had shown in the minor leagues. With that his walk rate and strikeout rate took a pretty big hit. He was probably a bit over his head and should be given the chance to work on getting ready for the majors by starting in triple-A Fresno.

Ceiling: Surkamp is a relatively low ceiling guy but he is close to the majors and has a high floor. He has some nice things going for him which could potentially make him a slightly above average pitcher but it is unlikely that he will be an All-Star. That being said even with out any more development he is probably a serviceable major league starter who could make most teams roster as a 4th or 5th starter. Luckily he has the chance to spend some time in Fresno to work on some of his weaknesses before being thrown into the fire.

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Crazy Crabbers Top 20 Prospects: Tommy Joseph

2012-01-26T09:14:00.000-08:00

Tommy Joseph is second in the list of very good Giants catching prospects and was the one that probably took the biggest step forward last season.

From the reports that I have read he made big strides defensively to ease the minds of people who were skeptical that he had the ability to stay behind the plate long term which really helps his value. In addition he really seemed to find his groove in the second half of last season flashing his potential.

In the second half of the California league schedule Joseph hit .299/ .343/ .575 with 16 homers which is a pretty drool worthy line to see a catcher produce.

However despite the step forward he took he still has a number of issues to work on including working on improving his walk rate and continue to cut down on the strike outs.

Season

Team

RBI

BB%

ISO

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

2010

Giants (A)

117

473

5.5 %

24.5 %

.165

.283

.236

.290

.401

.312

2011

Giants (A+)

127

560

5.2 %

18.2 %

.198

.292

.268

.315

.467

.340

Best Tool: Joseph has incredible power and the even better thing is that it has translated into game situations. In his first 2 professional years as an 18 and 19 year old he has hit 38 big flies with a career isolated power of .184.

Needs to work on: After making big strides in improving his defense the last thing that seems to be holding Joseph back is his ability to get on base on a regular basis. His career on base percentage is .304 which even with his prodigious power is too low to make his bat valuable.

Last year he did cut down on his strikeout rate (without losing anything in the power department which is a huge plus) but his walk rate is still below average. His power has kept his hitting at just below league average but his contact issues and below average walk rate have held him back. If he builds on the second half of last year things should look up for him going forward.

Ceiling: Joseph has a number of things going for him that make him an enticing prospect to watch, he has light tower power that would be excellent for a catcher and he is still very young. This coming season will be his age 20 season with him turning 21 in July so even if he takes a couple years to work on things in double-A and a season in triple-A he is still on track to make the majors before his 24th birthday.

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Tim Lincecum Signs for Two Years

2012-01-24T15:09:00.000-08:00

The Giants have settled their final arbitration case of the season by agreeing with Tim Lincecum on a 2 year $40.5 million deal that buys out his last two team controlled seasons. Here are the details on the contract from Andrew Baggarly:

The contract, which is pending a physical, will pay Lincecum $18 million this season and $22 million in 2013. He also receives a $500,000 signing bonus.

Overall that is pretty much right in line with what you would expect for him to earn via the arbitration process but I guess it gives both some certainty that if he has a great season (or suffers some sort of injury) that next season won't be in question.

I have already come out thinking that I don't think that it is a great idea for the Giants to sign Lincecum to an ultra long term deal like he has reportedly asked for. The risk on a deal like that is very high and while you have the perk of a premier player often times by the end of these deals it is a weight on a franchise, especially if the team is not willing to spend freely to cover up mistakes.

So all that being said I am happy that Lincecum will be a Giant (but that was never in doubt because they were not going to trade him) and that it wasn't at an unreasonable price. It is too bad that a medium term extension couldn't be worked out but I don't blame Lincecum for wanting to have the chance at really maximizing his career earnings.

Maybe in two years the Giants will have an offense worth sticking around for.

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Crazy Crabbers Top 20 Prospects: Francisco Peguero

2012-01-24T08:47:00.000-08:00

Ranking Francisco Peguero number four on my Giants top prospects list is probably one the bolder jumps that I took compared to others. Most people will have him lower and while I understand that line of thinking his combination of tools and the immense ceiling that comes with them was enough for me to look past some of the red flags.

He has plus or above average ratings in all five of the scouting tools (hitting, power, fielding, arm strength and speed) and to boot he was able to actually put up a decent offensive season (.340 wOBA) in the very hitter challenging Eastern League.

So why isn't Peguero regarded as a better prospect? Well it is because he is allergic to taking a walk with an ultra aggressive hitting approach. This isn't a problem for him when he can hit above .300 but when he falls into a slump he is offensive value drops to nearly zero.

Peguero has a lot going for him but also some pretty big red flags that hurt is overall ranking. (This will be a reoccurring theme as we go through the next few prospects)

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2008	Giants (A-)	50	220	2	33	28	10	4.1 %	19.5 %	.124	.377	.307	.349	.431	.369	117
2008	Giants (A)	50	194	2	23	15	15	6.2 %	22.2 %	.089	.331	.261	.309	.350	.319	97
2009	Giants (A-)	17	76	0	14	12	7	3.9 %	11.8 %	.070	.444	.394	.421	.465	.435	159
2009	Giants (A)	58	252	1	28	34	15	2.0 %	15.5 %	.097	.396	.340	.359	.437	.367	129
2010	Giants (A+)	122	538	10	78	77	40	3.3 %	16.4 %	.159	.382	.329	.358	.488	.366	115
2011	Giants (A+)	16	76	2	12	9	4	9.2 %	10.5 %	.118	.345	.324	.387	.441	.387	125
2011	Giants (AA)	71	296	5	34	37	8	1.7 %	15.2 %	.137	.346	.309	.318	.446	.340	109

Best Tool: Peguero has many nice tools to choose from but his best tool is his ability to hit for a high average. His ability to make solid contact on a consistent basis in combination with his above average speed have allowed Peguero to post a career .312 batting average in the minors.

Needs to work on: The big thing for Peguero to work on is his patience, it hasn't hurt him too much in the lower minors but as the level of pitching increases it is something that could be taken advantage of. With his contact ability and speed he doesn't need to totally overhaul his approach but refine it so that he harnesses his aggressiveness into pitches that he can drive and to help boost his offensive output for when the balls he puts in play don't fall for hits.

Ceiling: Peguero probably has one of the highest ceilings of any of the Giants prospects where his gap power and speed project really well for the spacious outfields of AT&T Park and the other NL West ball parks. Adding in above average defense and he could potentially blossom into an All-Star caliber player.

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Crazy Crabbers Top 20 Prospects: Andrew Susac

2012-01-23T13:30:00.000-08:00

Andrew Susac is the first of the Giants impressive depth at catcher on my Top Prospect list. He is also the one with the least amount of professional experience because he signed too late to get into any games last season but did get some at bats in the instructional league.

With the signing deadline for draft picks moved up in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement hopefully this wont be an issue for draft picks moving forward.

Of the three Giants catching prospects Susac has the best all around skills, with above average defense, plus power, above average hitting skills, and good athleticism for a catcher with very quick feet.

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
No pro experience

Best Tool: Susac's best tool right now is power. According to the Baseball America scouting report he has "plus power and generates the kinds of backspun home runs that keep carrying until they clear the fence." For a team that has been starved of power this is an excellent thing to hear.

Needs to work on: He has yet to make his pro debut so it is hard to get a clear read on what he needs to work on but one thing that the scouting reports have warned against is that his approach can be susceptible to breaking balls and that he will need to make adjustments on that as he moves up through the minors.

Ceiling: Susac was a projected first round draft pick that fell to the Giants with the 86th overall pick in the second round because of a hamate bone injury. With that if he is fully healthy he could be a steal for the Giants as he has a very high ceiling. With Buster Posey behind the plate and other catcher prospects higher up in the system the Giants shouldn't need to rush Susac which should be beneficial in helping him develop.

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Clay Davenport's Projected Standings

2012-01-23T09:13:00.000-08:00

Clay Davenport released his first projected standings for the 2012 season over the weekend and his projections say that the Giants should contend but they are far from the favorites in the NL West.

The plus side is that they are projected to allow the second fewest runs in Major League Baseball at 619. The bad news the 634 projected runs scored still puts them in 11th place of 16 teams.

Here is the NL West projections, check the website for the full projections:

NL West	Won	Lost	Runs	Runs A
ARI	86	76	723	678
COL	85	77	749	715
SFG	83	79	634	616
LAD	82	80	636	631
SDP	73	89	606	678

Also fun to check out are the projections that he did for each player.

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Update on the Giants Budget

2012-01-23T07:27:00.000-08:00

UPDATE 1/24/2012 3:00PM: With the Giants signing Tim Lincecum the roster is essentially finalized with the last questions figuring out the last people on the bench and in the bullpen (even that might not be that interesting).

With the Lincecum deal it looks like the Giants will be at around $128-129 million dollars and the only real change that may come is if the Giants extend Matt Cain and it alters his 2012 salary as well. I'll keep updating things as the pre-arbitration deals are announced.

****Original****

The Giants have taken care of just about all of their arbitration cases (except for the really big one for Tim Lincecum but that seems to be close to being resolved as well) and with their roster pretty much set the picture of what the Giants payroll for next season is nearly complete.

With management setting a hard cap for the season at $130 million it looks like the team is going to be right at the number and may end up slightly over it depending on the raises that the team gives to the pre-arbitration players.

Here is the current roster with the salary for each player (or estimate):

Starting Pitchers	2012 Salary	Notes
Tim Lincecum	$18,000,000.00
Matt Cain	$15,330,000.00
Madison Bumgarner	$600,000.00	Pre Arb Estimate
Ryan Vogelsong	$3,000,000.00
Barry Zito	$19,000,000.00
	$57,180,000.00

Relief Pitchers	2012 Salary	Notes
Brian Wilson	$8,500,000.00
Sergio Romo	$1,575,000.00
Santiago Casilla	$2,200,000.00
Dan Runzler	$480,000.00	Pre Arb Estimate
Javier Lopez	$4,250,000.00
Jermey Affeldt	$5,000,000.00
Guilermo Mota	$1,000,000.00
	$21,005,000.00

Catchers	2012 Salary	Notes
Buster Posey	$600,000.00
Eli Whiteside	$600,000.00
Chris Stewart	$480,000.00	Pre Arb Estimate
	$1,680,000.00

Infielders	2012 Salary	Notes
Aubrey Huff	$10,000,000.00
Brandon Belt	$480,000.00	Pre Arb Estimate
Freddy Sanchez	$6,000,000.00
Brandon Crawford	$480,000.00	Pre Arb Estimate
Pablo Sandoval	$3,200,000.00
Mike Fontenot	$1,050,000.00
Emmanuel Burriss	$625,000.00
Brett Pill	$480,000.00	Pre Arb Estimate
	$22,315,000.00

Outfielders	2012 Salary	Notes
Nate Schierholtz	$1,300,000.00
Angel Pagan	$4,850,000.00
Melky Cabrera	$6,000,000.00
	$12,150,000.00

Still Owed Money	2012 Salary	Notes
Aaron Rowand	$13,600,000.00	Released

Total 2012 Payroll:	$128,680,000.00

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Crazy Crabbers Top 20 Prospects: Joe Panik

2012-01-16T09:22:00.000-08:00

Joe Panik was the Giants first round draft pick last season and when his name was called there were some people that thought this was a reach. Well Panik signed quickly and was designated to the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes of the Northwest League and tore things up.

Panik isn’t known to have the most flashy of skills but he is a guy that seems to play above his tools and has excelled at just about every step in his baseball career. Panik was a short stop in college and at Salem-Keizer but switched over to second base while in the Arizona Fall League.

Scouts seem to be split on whether or not he can stick at the position long term defensively but with his tendency to play above his tools I hope he can stick it out at short where his bat would be very nice. Even if he has to switch to second base his bat profiles well there and his defense should be above average.

The big question is where the Giants see him fitting in and how fast they want to push him, if they see him as the second baseman of the future he may go straight to Double-A Richmond, if they want to keep him on the short stop track they will probably send him to High Single-A San Jose.

Season	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2011	Giants (A-)	69	304	6	49	54	13	9.2 %	8.2 %	.126	.354	.341	.401	.467	.403	144

Best Tool: Panik’s best tool is his ability to make contact. On his way to being the Northwest League MVP he struck out in just 8.2 percent of his plate appearances and made consistent hard contact. Even in his stint in the Arizona Fall League he was able to overcome a slow start to finish with a .323 average.

Needs to work on: The one disappointment of his professional debut was that he didn’t show much power but that really isn’t the type of hitter that he profiles to be. It is kind of unfair to pick on that because there just isn’t too much in his stat line to complain about.

Ceiling: Panik had as good of a debut as you could ask for. His ultimate ceiling depends on if he can stay at short or if he needs to switch over to second base at the major league level. If he can stay at short his bat should be above average and could propel him to All-Star level. If he needs to move to second he loses a bit of that value and is probably is a fringe All-Star candidate on occasion but still solidly above average.

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Brandon Belt and the Annual Spring Training Overreaction

2012-01-13T16:06:00.000-08:00

It is a slow news time of year before we start seeing the arbitration players start signing and we are still over a month away from pitchers and catcher reporting.

However Chris Haft who writes for MLB.com has a new mail bag out today really sums up a line of thinking that just drives me mad, the magnification of Spring Training stats.

Here is the question and answer that I want to look deeper at:

Where is the outfield situation headed? With Brandon Belt, Melky Cabrera and Nate Schierholtz already pretty much in place, I don't see the need for Angel Pagan. Is it possible the team trades Aubrey Huff to put Belt at first base? What can the Giants get for Huff right now? I find it hard to imagine Pagan as the fourth outfielder. -- Eric Y., San Jose

Little is certain regarding San Francisco's outfield, which explains why manager Bruce Bochy refused to name a starting threesome during last month's Winter Meetings. In fact, making definitive statements about any of the top five candidates is challenging:

Cabrera almost surely will begin the season in the lineup. But at what position?

Since the Giants gave the Mets two Major Leaguers (Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez) for Pagan, he also appears likely to start. So why didn't Bochy commit to him?

Does Schierholtz really have right field locked up? If so, it would be the first time.

Huff is virtually impossible to trade, given his $10 million salary and dismal 2011 performance. The Giants hierarchy would prefer to see him at first base rather than at one of the outfield corners.

Coming off a .225 rookie season, Belt must excel in Cactus League exhibitions just to have a chance to start either in left field or at first base. But I believe that he's capable of sustaining the kind of effort that would earn him a job. [emphasis mine]

Every time I see something like this, I don't want to believe that the front office of the team that I spend too many hours following puts faith in a few hundred at bats against uneven competition for decisions such as who should be the starting out fielder and who should be in the minor leagues. I just don't want to believe it even if it is true.

So please Giants management don't use Spring Training as a reason for why you are making important decisions. Funky things can happen in these small samples and they are not very good at predicting what will actually happen in the coming season. One last reminder:

Didn't Aubrey Huff tear up the Cactus League last year? Didn't he lead the Cactus League in home runs? So how did that work out for the season?

Yeah take spring numbers with a grain of salt and don't make important decisions based on those numbers. That is all.

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