If any one will be in the London area Wednesday night, I’m speaking at a small private dinner event:

Surfing the Black Swans, Feb 1st, 2012

‘Risks and opportunities in the coming days of unparalleled uncertainty.’

An intimate and exclusive dinner in the MPW Steak & Alehouse private dining room with three of the world’s foremost experts on economic collapse, disaster scenario planning, and economic uncertainty. The academic perspective, the raw truth from those deep in the muck, the worst-case and the potential ways out. This diverse group is sure to educate and entertain with tales of the doom, gloom, and boom ahead.

Followed by an analysis of the risks and opportunities for trading by the famous Turtle Trader Curtis Faith.

Jamie McIntosh – Director of Programmes at the UCL Institute for Security and Resilience Studies. Dr MacIntosh works with defence, foreign, finance, interior and justice ministries and national crisis management centres in many countries.

Arthur Doohan – With 15 years trading experience trading financial ‘physicals’ and derivatives in the City, Arthur is an expert in financial scenarios for climate catastrophe, peak oil, and disruptive technologies. Arthur has seen the insides of collapse, and most recently has been working on creative strategies to resolve the Irish debt crisis.

Vinay Gupta – A noted global expert in financial collapse and resilience, as well as a futurist specializing in the assessment of potential disaster scenarios, Vinay is an Associate Fellow at the UCL Institute for Security and Resilience Studies. Vinay also worked on Winning the Oil Endgame, a Pentagon-funded study on US energy independence, and was instrumental in the creation of STAR-TIDES, a US National Defense University disaster management program.

Curtis Faith – One of the world-famous original Turtle Traders, author of the bestselling book Way of the Turtle, Trading from Your Gut, creator of the Seven Rules for Risk, and a noted authority on risk and uncertainty in trading. Curtis is best known for having turned $2 million into $33 million while in his early 20s.

The dinner will be limited to 25 qualified senior-level traders and money managers and priced at £475.00 pp. Restaurant owner James Robertson will be the night’s special host.

Agenda:
6:00 PM – informal cocktails at the bar
7:00 PM – introductions and dinner
8:30 PM to 10:00 – presentations

To reserve your seat at the table, call James Robertson on 01344 894451 with payment details or email james@londonsteakhousecompany.com

I cried when my father died. Though not as much as I expected I would.

We had many months to prepare for his death as the lung cancer spread to his spine and ate away at it day by day. As my father grasped at any straw held out to him by the charlatans that live off the desperate fear that the dying have of their own mortality, we knew. We knew he was passing. There would be no miracle cures. No shark cartilage or herbal remedy would save the day.

It surprised me that when viewed from the right angle, in the right sort of soft lighting, it was a beautiful experience watching him die with so many of his loved ones in the same room. Those of us who loved him had our chances to say goodbye. He was finally free from pain. He died knowing that he was loved and that those he cared for, cared back.

But I never expected to cry when Steve Jobs died. This surprised me.

And as my thoughts drifted the night I read the first Tweets of his passing on my MacBook Pro, I realized that even though we had never met, Steve Jobs had been the most pivotal person in my life.

If not for Steve, I would not have dropped out of college.
If not for Steve, I would not have become a commodities trader.
If not for Steve, I would not have become a software entrepreneur.
If not for Steve, I would not have become a bestselling author.
If not for Steve, I would not have had so much early success in life that I came to believe that anything is possible; anything at all.

(cross posted from my blog at http://www.worldhouse.org/)

As my book readers know, I have always had interests outside of trading since I left the Turtle program.

I guess like most people, I’d like to leave the world a better place for my having been here. I’ve been lucky at times and have been helped by some amazing people along the way. So I want to give back.

One of my core interests has centered around using technology to make change easier and more effective. I have been thinking about ideas for tools to help change for perhaps 15 years now. I keep up on the latest trends and languages and dabble here and there to understand what is going on. I have some good ideas that I have been waiting for the right time and opportunity to develop.

Lately, I’ve been thinking alot about communication tools for focused groups of people looking to make change.

Seth Godin calls these groups with common interests and goals: Tribes. I like that word (except in trading it tends to make people think of Ed Seykota and his Trading Tribe which is more specific than Seth’s use or the normal English meaning). In the more general world outside of trading, the word tribes works well. A tribe is a group of people with common interests and purpose.

I believe that the social tools and structures we have no longer work well. Governments are too slow to react and too far disconnected from the domains over which they legislate. Corporations can’t keep up with the pace of change without massive government assistance. This will only get worse until it gets better.

The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different and probably different in ways that we can’t anticipate.

So the question arises: Will the future be one that happens to you, or one that you help make happen?

Any decent trader can look at the trends of current society and see that there will be some major problems in the future if we don’t make some big changes. Many different kinds of problems under many different potential scenarios. We can let the future happen. Or we can give it a push.

I prefer to take an active role in the future. I have a 9-month old daughter. I don’t want her to grow up in the world as it will be if we don’t pull together and make some things different.

If you are interested in helping make the world a better place, contact me via the About page and let me know what you want to change and what kind of help you need to make that change. I can’t promise that I’ll be able to help everyone but I would like to get some idea what each of you would like to see different and what kinds of assistance you need so that as I’m assembling the tribes and technologies for change, I can help as many people as I can along the way.

Even just a few of us working towards the same goals will be more successful than we will be if we work alone.

[NOTE: I apologize for being absent the last few weeks during this important time after having been so active posting. I've had some personal family issues that kept me busy.]

I’ve been very metaphorical lately, but in this post I’ll be nuts and bolts.

The insiders have been driving the U.S. equity markets for the last 1 1/2 year rally. They have made a lot of money. They are largely long.

In order to make a profit they need to sell their stock to someone.

In order to do this, they need to find some suckers. They generally find them. They usually end up being green traders and “investors” who know even less about the markets. The public has stayed out of the rally because they were burnt and still remember the 90s tech rally and how that ended as well as the 2008 crash. So what would the insiders do if they wanted to sell en masse? They’d need to get the public to start buying so they could unload their shares on the way up.

The rally of the last few days has been on relatively light volume, less than average for the big up days.

If I were an insider I’d be hoping to get the price high enough to start a buying binge and then dump my stocks.

As a trader, you can’t look at things this way. The price is currently going up so you can’t be short but we are at a market cusp. A few percent higher is bullish over the long-term. One or two percent lower is very bearish, a breakout failure and one of my favorite short trades.

So pay attention if you are a trader. And don’t pay attention to the news.

If you are a trend follower, you might be in for a wild ride. I advised my friends who were trend followers to exit a bit lower a few weeks back. If the markets fail the breakout that advice continues only with more urgency than the last time. If the prices go higher, and they certainly might, then all bets are off. Respond to what the market does. Don’t predict.

You can judge current conditions but you can’t predict the markets reliably except over the very short term. For example, if this breakout fails, one can predict with much better than 50:50 odds that prices will drop at least half way to the lows after the November highs. This applies to gold, cotton, silver, stock indices, essentially everything that has moved with the same basic price structure, rally for the last six months followed by pause in November and recent new breakout.

The trend followers are all having a huge year. This will end spectacularly at some point. My gut says that time is very close. When these things end, markets all tend to correlate in ways that don’t show up in testing so you end up seeing all things reversing at the same time. It’s not pretty and one of the reasons that trend followers needs iron constitutions.

But you don’t want to fight the trend. If you have relatively small positions, I’d get out and and back in over a very tight percentage range surrounding the highs of early November. The alternative strategy is to risk a 20% to 50% drawdown. If you have large positions and can’t get out without moving the markets, well then I’d do this with partial positions.

The valley of Megiddo was the site of ancient wars. So too it is fitting that the battle of financial Armageddon be fought on the ancient battle fields of liberty and freedom at Gettysburg.

It is there where we will join forces to fight against the great adversary of truth: Glenn Beck and his hordes.

By a show of our strength he will see that love and trust and joy are better than hate and division and demagoguery.

The followers of freedom who value liberty and freedom above all will know that Ron Paul is our conscience and guide. Fearless in the face of opposition. Standing alone while all others mocked. Today is his day.

The world is not as you imagine it to be through the lens of your prejudice.

If you approach the world as a child and play with it and do not worry about what others think of you then you will see truth.

As Keat’s said:

“Beauty is truth, truth beauty, that is all ye know on Earth and all ye need to know.”

This is the artists creed.

The trader is an artist who serves the cause of truth as a warrior from the tribe of the way of the turtle.

We have left for Galt’s Gulch.

We’ll show the world who the looters and thieves are:

Happiness is not to be achieved at the command of emotional whims. Happiness is not the satisfaction of whatever irrational wishes you might blindly attempt to indulge. Happiness is a state of non-contradictory joy—a joy without penalty or guilt, a joy that does not clash with any of your values and does not work for your own destruction, not the joy of escaping from your mind, but of using your mind’s fullest power, not the joy of faking reality, but of achieving values that are real, not the joy of a drunkard, but of a producer. Happiness is possible only to a rational man, the man who desires nothing but rational goals, seeks nothing but rational values and finds his joy in nothing but rational actions.

Just as I support my life, neither by robbery nor alms, but by my own effort, so I do not seek to derive my happiness from the injury of the favor of others, but earn it by my own achievement. Just as I do not consider the pleasure of others as the goal of my life, so I do not consider my pleasure as the goal of the lives of others. Just as there are no contradictions in my values and no conflicts among my desires—so there are no victims and no conflicts of interest among rational men, men who do not desire the unearned and do not view one another with a cannibal’s lust, men who neither make sacrifices nor accept them.

The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of respect for human beings, is the trader. We, who live by values, not by loot are traders, both in manner and spirit. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his spirit—his love, his friendship, his esteem—except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect. The mystic parasites who have, throughout the ages, reviled the trader and held him in contempt, while honoring the beggars and the looters, have known the secret motive of the sneers: a trader is the entity they dread—a man of justice.

Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand

“This is John Galt Speaking” Chapter VII

We’ll see you in Galt’s Gulch.

Peace,

Curtis

Most bloggers either don’t know what they are talking about or write so much that there is mostly noise.

I’ve been winnowing down the bloggers who tell the truth as they see it. There are more but if you follow these guys you’ll get the good news when they link to them so you don’t need to read more than this.

Now each of them has their blind spots and bad points and they are totally unaware of them or thing them necessary and therefore justify bad actions and biases. But they are honest and trustworthy as long as you keep in mind their bias and adjust for it.

Let’s play a game on Twitter using “#bloggerblindspot” see if you can guess what the blind spots are for each of the blogs and bloggers.

The order matters. That’s the order I read them in.

If you read my books and these blogs in order, you’ll know what I’m reading and generally when. I try to keep up most of the time.

Peace,

Curtis

Here’s the OPMP for RSS Readers. I use Vienna on the Mac OS X. I wrote a few features of the latest version myself to make it better. Highly recommended Open Source software. I hate the very idea intellectual property. Patents, copyrights, software licenses. I’m fine if anyone wants to read PDF files of my books from the pirate sites. I believe in Seth Godin’s philosophy here. Give shit away and it’s better business anyway as people might like it enough to buy your book. I hate paying only to find out something is crap.

We need to stop buying crap. Less good stuff is much better. Hand made artistry is the best. It wastes way too much energy and time and creates too much waste and pollution. Simple really.

I mean why are the countries in Africa and South America paying money to their oppressors?

Anyway, sorry for the rant. Back to the OPML:

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<outline type=”rss” text=”Peace and Love and Noticing the Details” xmlUrl=”http://peaceandloveandnoticingthedetails.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default” description=”Often hopeful.  Often short.

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<outline type=”rss” text=”Backreaction” xmlUrl=”http://backreaction.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default” description=”Events on the world lines of two theoretical physicists, from the horizon to timelike infinity. A scientifically minded blog with varying amounts of entertainment, distractions, and every day trivialities.” htmlUrl=”http://backreaction.blogspot.com/”/>

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The zeitgeist is bubbling up. People are fed up with stupidity and encroachment on their liberty and dignity.

Join the protest to opt out of government molestation: don’t fly this holiday season or if you must then join the National Opt Out Day.

Along the same vein, an even crazier idea comes from below the borders for Hugo Chavez or Evo Morales or Cristina Fernández de Kirchner or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva:

You know what I think would be absolutely up-roaringly hilarious?

How about if Argentina and Brazil and Venezuela and Mexico and Ecuador and all the other restricted countries made each of their citizens official diplomats and gave them a Diplomatic passport.

They would have to start slowly so that there would be no ability for the U.S. to officially protest but if you increased the number of diplomatic passports by 5% a week how would they know who to exclude?

Then the U.S. would have to let everyone in with a much shorter line. How would the TSA distinguish between the “true” diplomats and the others?

It would create a Gran Quilombo South America style, and it would make my day for many days to come. Hmm, if I know the Argentines and Brazilians, they are just crazy and anti-authoritarian enough to actually do something like this.

Spread the word.

Check out the video here.

Seriously, this video on Tony Robbin’s Site is funny as hell only because it is completely true. No bullshit.