Blog - Investment Notes records our most recent investment-related research. Our focus is on market knowledge and wisdom rather than transient news. Normal update schedule for this section is daily. The blog archives have three subsections: (1) original (primary) research, (2) summaries of external (secondary) research, and (3) reviews of guru forecasts, web sites and a few books. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ en-us Copyright 2008 CXO Advisory. All Rights Reserved. steve.lecompte@cxoadvisory.com Recent S&P 500 aggregate bottoms-up earnings growth estimates have often been substantially inaccurate. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog10-13-08/ Mon, 13 Oct 2008 A reader writes: "What link on your site can help me understand today's market?" http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Sun, 12 Oct 2008 Limited evidence suggests that, in aggregate, stock market gurus may tend to anchor on bullish or bearish positions, regardless of actual market trends. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog10-10-08/ Fri, 10 Oct 2008 Formal asset valuation models (extrapolations of historical return data) provide the most (least) predictive estimates of the future equity risk premium. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog10-09-08/ Thu, 09 Oct 2008 Analysis of Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll results indicates that aggregate blogger sentiment is non-predictive for future stock market direction. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog10-08-08/ Wed, 08 Oct 2008 The well-known stock market anomalies may be much less reliable in rational practice than they appear in hindsight. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog10-07-08/ Tue, 07 Oct 2008 Investors may be able to exploit time variation of the value premium based on the state of the economy, moving out of (into) value as recessions approach (end). http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog10-06-08/ Mon, 06 Oct 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Fri, 03 Oct 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The second most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Thu, 02 Oct 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The third most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Wed, 01 Oct 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The fourth most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Tue, 30 Sep 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The fifth most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Mon, 29 Sep 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The sixth most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Fri, 26 Sep 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The seventh most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Thu, 25 Sep 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The eighth most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Wed, 24 Sep 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The ninth most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Tue, 23 Sep 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we are counting down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. The tenth most popular research item is: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Mon, 22 Sep 2008 We are taking a few days off. In the meantime, we will count down the ten most popular CXOadvisory.com research items of the past few years based on number of unique visitors, excluding the main menu items and the research collections listed in the site header. As a preliminary to the top-ten countdown, here are the honorable mentions that almost made it: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/ Fri, 19 Sep 2008 This Fed model-like stock market valuation forecast is currently much more sensitive to beliefs about future corporate earnings than beliefs about future inflation. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog9-17-08/ Wed, 17 Sep 2008 We have updated the Inflation Forecast to incorporate actual inflation data for August 2008. We have also updated Stock Market Status, the Real Earnings Yield Model and the Reversion-to-Value Model accordingly. Model updates include extending projections through 9/30/09 and sliding the start date of the window of analysis for the short-term models from 6/30/05 to 9/30/05. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/inflation/ Tue, 16 Sep 2008 The average return for the S&P 500 index is abnormally high (low) after 52-week lows (highs), but the volatility is also abnormally high (low). http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog9-16-08/ Tue, 16 Sep 2008 Traders may be able to exploit systematic one-week reversals in the prices of small stocks making 52-week lows. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/external/blog9-15-08/ Mon, 15 Sep 2008