Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

A Chinese memory chipmaker opened 472% higher and was briefly worth more than BHP and CBA combined. Market overexuberance may not be confined to America.

Why Microsoft is restarting Three Mile Island

In December 2024, Beijing banned exports of three metals most people have never heard of. The fallout was immediate, brutal — and it was only the beginning of a much bigger scramble.

Groundhog Day

Markets once again wake to the same headlines. Each turn of the loop starts from a weaker position than the last. Winners may be the ones who simply ignore it.

The Hidden Bear Market

Murray Dawes

Despite the S&P/ASX 200 sitting only a few percent below its all-time high, the reality for many investors is dramatically different.

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Why Microsoft is restarting Three Mile Island

In December 2024, Beijing banned exports of three metals most people have never heard of. The fallout was immediate, brutal — and it was only the beginning of a much bigger scramble.

Elon Musk revealed Optimus had stopped scaling — not from a software bug, but because he couldn’t get his hands on 3.5 kilograms of raw material. Here’s why that matters to every investor watching the AI boom

The Hat Spoke Louder Than the Winning Goal

Brian Chu

Ferran Torres, who scored the winning goal in this year’s World Cup, wore a hat that said ‘Make Spain Great Again’ at the victory parade. This message and sparked much debate worldwide. But beyond the message lies a more important issue…

The Next Asset to Target: Preparing for the ‘Trickle-Down Effect’ in Commodities

Former James Cooper details why he expects we’re embarking on a highly speculative phase in the resource market. The time to prepare is now.

Now we know how the government will steal your retirement pot

Nick Hubble

For years I’ve been warning this day would come. Now, the government has stopped pretending. The true purpose of Superannuation has been exposed.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

AI for Dummies

After many requests, here’s Charlie’s stab at how these machines think, connect ideas and remember. Explained in plain English.

Selling the Signal

Trading firms can now pay the President’s company for millisecond access to the President’s posts. Most companies have to make a product. This one just makes news.

Canberra’s Cover Charge

Albanese wants every large AI data centre to fund its own power. If the rules pass, the energy buildout becomes compulsory. The open question is whether the capital stays.

Data-struction

Paul Dichiera

Are datacentres next on the chopping block? The demand is real and already signed. The danger sits in the balance sheet, heres what headlines miss.

Musk Looks Up. China Looks Down

SpaceX wants a million AI satellites in orbit. China just switched on a wind-powered data centre under the sea. Both are chasing the same prize: cheap power and free cooling for the AI buildout.

Small Caps

Shanghai Builds a Taller Tower

A Chinese memory chipmaker opened 472% higher and was briefly worth more than BHP and CBA combined. Market overexuberance may not be confined to America.

Gold Accumulation Begins

The ASX clawed back from a two-week low on Tuesday as investors bought the dip in gold miners. That dip-buying could mark a floor for ASX resource companies.

Is the blood letting over for ASX resources?

The ASX clawed back from a two-week low on Tuesday as investors bought the dip in gold miners. That dip-buying could mark a floor for ASX resource companies.

Rocks and AI Stocks Hit by Moonshot

A Chinese AI model just rattled chip stocks from Seoul to Sydney. When commodities trade like tech, perhaps the boring businesses are the ones left standing.

IPO Fever: America Builds Its Tallest Tower Yet

America stands accused of rigging the World Cup. Meanwhile the mega-IPOs keep coming, the Fed has gone quiet, and the skyscraper index hints at where this bull market sits.

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Market Analysis

Groundhog Day

Markets once again wake to the same headlines. Each turn of the loop starts from a weaker position than the last. Winners may be the ones who simply ignore it.

The Hidden Bear Market

Murray Dawes

Despite the S&P/ASX 200 sitting only a few percent below its all-time high, the reality for many investors is dramatically different.

Greg Canavan Chats Markets on Closing Bell

This week, Greg Canavan joins Charlie to discuss the direction of the ASX, the valuations of some of our biggest players, China’s recent growth hiccups, and what they mean for our local commodity producers.

Mission Accomplished

Markets are buoyed by a softer US inflation print thanks to cheaper petrol. But with the Strait of Hormuz erupting again, that win may already be borrowed against the future.

Pick a Direction

Greg Canavan

Summertime in the north means sleepy markets, but that doesn’t mean risk isn’t present. After an ambling year for the ASX, we look to be at a crossroads.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else