Mortgage markets improved in roller coaster-like trading last week. And, not surprisingly, the week’s two big stories were the same two stories roiling mortgage markets since March — Greece and Jobs.

In both instances, rate shoppers won. Conforming mortgage rates in California improved for the first time in 3 weeks last week.

Early in the week, mortgage rates fell as doubts resurfaced on the just-completed Greece aid package. Although an agreement had been reached by the Greek Parliament, investors are wondering if it’s a bona fide solution, or delaying an inevitable default.

Talk like this triggers a flight-to-quality, and last week, it led mortgage rates lower.

Then, mid-week, a strong preview of the Friday jobs report led to a reversal. Mortgage markets sold off sharply with the prospect of a blow-out Non-Farm Payrolls number. Analysts upped their estimates 50% — from 80,000 net new jobs created in June to 120,000 — and mortgage rates spiked in anticipation.

The rate rise was short-lived, however, because when the actual jobs report was released, it showed just 14,000 jobs added in June. Mortgage markets reversed and mortgage rates sunk to their best levels in 2 weeks.

This week, Greece should remain in the headlines, but there’s other rate-changing news, too:

• Tuesday : FOMC Minutes
• Wednesday : 10-Year Treasury Auction
• Thursday : PPI; 30-Year Treasury Auction; Jobless Claims
• Friday : CPI; Consumer Sentiment

If you’re still floating a mortgage rate, today marks a good week to lock. Mortgage rates could fall this week and next, but there’s more room for rates to rise than to fall. 

Lock up today’s low rates while they’re still available.

Related posts:

1. What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates : Week Of July 5, 2011
2. What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 31, 2011
3. What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 6, 2011

The year is half-over. It’s an opportune time to take stock of analyst predictions made at the start of the year, and to recognize that the “experts” can be wrong as often as they are right.

For as much experience and authority an expert brings to the conversation, though, nobody can accurately predict the future.

As such, there’s often disagreement.

Looking back to December, some housing analysts called for a market rebound this year; while others called for a fall. With respect to mortgages, some said rates had nowhere to go but up; while others expected more dips.

As a layperson, how do you know who will be right?

In short, you can’t.

Predictions are a tricky business because they’re guesses about the future based on the world as it exists today. When the predictions listed earlier were made, the world was a different place.   

A lot has changed since January:

• Slowing job growth has suggested to slower U.S. economic growth
• Food and energy costs have spiked, adding inflationary pressures to the economy
• Eurozone debt issues have grown, punctuated by a near-Greek default
• Tsunamis have caused widespread damage in Japan
• Earthquakes, floods and volcanoes have harmed economic output

None of these events had occurred as of December, when the original predictions were made. Yet, each of these developments has made a deep impact on housing, and on the economy.  

So, what’s a Danville homeowner to do? Think of the present instead.

First, mortgage rates are low today — extremely low by historical standards. Second, home values have been slow to rebound through most U.S. markets. Combined, these factors have made homes more affordable than it any time in recorded history. It’s not only cheap to buy a home right now, it’s cheap to refinance one, too.

Analysts are saying the home prices will rise this year, and mortgage rates will, too. Those predictions may ultimately be proven true. Until the future arrives, though, those predictions are just guesses.

Related posts:

1. New Home Supply Falls To 16-Year Low
2. Foreclosures Drop 35 Percent Year-Over-Year

Friday morning, at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its June Non-Farm Payrolls report. If you’re currently shopping for a mortgage, or floating a mortgage rate, be prepared. Mortgage rates can change following the monthly report’s release.

Often, by a lot.

More commonly called “the jobs report“, Non-Farm Payrolls reports on the U.S. workforce by sector, summarizing its findings in terms of total workforce size, and as a national Unemployment Rate. Jobs are considered a keystone in the continuing U.S. economic recovery. 

More working Americans means:

1. More consumer spending, a boost to businesses
2. More tax collection, a boost to governments
3. More personal savings, a boost to households

For June, analysts expect the government to report 80,000 net new jobs created, and no change in the 9.1% Unemployment Rate.

Although these figures are slightly below than what can be considered “strong growth”, that’s not what should concern Danville rate shoppers. Mortgage markets react to a deviation from estimates more than to the actual results themselves.

This is because Wall Street placed bets in advance of the jobs report’s release. If jobs growth tallies more than 80,000, therefore, it signals better news for the economy than what was expected. This will push banks and investors towards equities, and away from bonds — including the mortgage-backed kind.

With less demand for mortgage bonds, mortgage rates will rise.

Conversely, if jobs growth is less than 80,000, mortgage rates should fall.

Mortgage rates remain near their lows for the year, but if the June Non-Farm Payrolls report beats estimates of 80,000 jobs made in June, look for mortgage rates to spike. The safe move is to lock today.

Related posts:

1. Making A Rate-Lock Plan Before Friday’s Jobs Report

As home buyers in the Danville area , we tend to research homes a lot. We look at square footage; at upgrades; at landscaping; at community statistics; and, at every other “number” on which we can get our hands.

But those are just statistics. What about the home’s “feel”? 

In this 5-minute piece from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll learn a dozen complementary home-shopping techniques to help you review and evaluate a home for purchase. Each is focused on findings you won’t see listed on a website.

For example, instead of scheduling your second showing for the same time of day as your first one, revisit a home during an “opposite” time. if you originally saw the home in daylight, go see it at nighttime. If you first saw a home on the weekend, go see it during the work week.

By seeing a home in two distinct settings, you can get a better feel for what the home and neighborhood are really like.

Some of the other tips from the video include:

1. Visit during Rush Hour and on a Saturday night. This will help you gauge sound levels of the street.
2. Go to Google Maps and study the aerial shot of the home. What’s nearby?
3. Talk to neighbors. They’ll share everything about the neighborhood with you — good and bad.

When you buy a home, you committing to more than just the property. You’re committing to the neighborhood, too. Armed with the methods described in this video, you’ll be better prepared to make a good decision.

No related posts.

Mortgage markets worsened last week as Wall Street’s renewed optimism pushed equities to their best one-week gain in 2 years. The change in  sentiment was bad news for rate shoppers, however, as investors pored into stocks at the expense of bonds.

Last week, for the first time since February, mortgage rates rose 5 days in a row. By the time bond markets closed for the 3-day weekend, conforming fixed mortgage rates in California had climbed to their worst levels since mid-May.

Mortgage rates are now at 7-week highs.

The biggest reason for last week’s mortgage rate turnaround is that lawmakers in Greece approved a national austerity plan. Reaching an accord on spending cuts and tax increases was a necessary step for the nation-state to avoid defaulting on its debt and falling into bankruptcy.

Until last week, it wasn’t clear whether the Greek Parliament would reach this agreement, and this fear is why mortgage rates were down through May and June. Faloout from a default would have created global economic uncertainty and uncertainty tends to be good for mortgage rates.

With agreement reached, though, that uncertainty is minimized. Mortgage rates are reversing. 

This week, the big news will be June’s Non-Farm Payroll report, set for release Friday morning. If jobs growth is stronger-than-expected, stock markets should continue to post gains and mortgage rates should continue to rise.

The jobs report is a market-mover. If you’re floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, it may be prudent to lock ahead of Friday’s release.

Related posts:

1. What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 2, 2011
2. What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 6, 2011

The interest rate differential between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages continues to widen and has now reached historic levels.

There’s never been a better time to lock an ARM.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, homeowners in Danville who lock their mortgage rate today will save 129 basis points on rate, on average, by choosing a 5-year ARM as their mortgage product as compared to a 30-year fixed rate loan.

The average 30-year fixed rate is 4.51%. The average 5-year ARM rate is 3.22%.

It’s the biggest interest rate spread between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage rates in Freddie Mac’s recorded history; a gap which is the result, in part, of the 5-year ARM dropping to all-time lows this week.

Rates for the 5-year ARM are even lower than during last year’s historic Refi Boom.

Putting today’s “spread” in action against a hypothetical $250,000 loan size, a homeowner that chooses an ARM over a fixed-rate loan would save $184.30 monthly, and would have $500 fewer closing costs.

That’s a 5-year savings of $11,558 — nearly triple what you would have saved just 2 years ago.

The main reason why today’s adjustable-rate mortgages are priced so aggressively relative to comparable fixed-rate loans is that Wall Street expects the economy to drag for the next several quarters, after which it expects an acceleration. 

ARMs tend to reflect short-term expectations for the U.S. economy which is why short-term mortgage rates are dropping.  Fixed products, by contrast, take a longer view and expectations for an economic rebound are pulling fixed-rate mortgage rates up.

For now, mortgage applicants can exploit the difference — especially those who plan to move within the next 5 years — but adjustable-rate mortgages aren’t right for everyone. ARMs carry particular risks about which you should be aware before locking.

Before you choose an ARM, therefore, talk it through with your loan officer. 

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The summer housing market is heating up.

According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, the Pending Home Sales Index smashed analyst expectations, jumping 8 percent on a monthly basis in May. 

Wall Street calls were for an increase of just 0.5 percent. 

It was a surprise result that, coupled with the recent stronger-than-expected New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales readings, has sparked housing market optimism in California and nationwide.

The biggest reason for the optimism is because of what the Pending Home Sales Index measures. 

In contrast to “traditional” housing data which reports on how housing performed two months ago, for example, the Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator; a predictor of future market activity based on freshly-written contracts between buyers and sellers.

In other words, the Pending Home Sales Index looks ahead — not back. This is reflected in its methodology which states that 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months, and a large percentage of the rest close within Months 3 and 4.

Because May’s Pending Home Sales Index rose sharply, therefore, we can expect similar jumps in the Existing Home Sales figures of June and July.

For housing and home prices, this is a positive but the gains won’t apply to each home equally. The Pending Home Sales Index is still a national report for a market built on local sales. What’s happening on your particular street in your particular neighborhood may not reflect what’s happening somewhere else.

For accurate, real-time data in your local market, ask a real estate agent for statistics.

Related posts:

1. Pending Home Sales Point To Seller’s Market This Summer

Maybe homes in Danville are holding value better than we thought.

Between March and April of this year, home values rose 0.8 percent nationally, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index. It’s the index’s first month-to-month improvement since May of last year.

Values are down 19 percent since peaking 4 years ago.

Private-sector data affirms the government’s report. 

Tuesday, the S&P’s Case-Shiller Index also showed home values higher by 0.8 percent in April, on a monthly basis. Led by Washington, D.C. and San Francisco, 13 of the Case-Shiller’s 20 tracked markets showed improvement in April. 

In March, just 2 markets did.

As a home seller , it’s nice to see reports of rising home prices after multiple months of “bad news”. However, the data may not be as rosy as it appears to be. National real estate surveys including the Home Price Index and the Case-Shiller Index are flawed for everyday buyers and sellers.

The biggest flaw is “age”. Both the Home Price Index and the Case-Shiller Index report on a near 2-month delay.

This week, the calendar turns to July. Yet, we’re still discussing housing news from April. The housing market of 60 days ago was very different from the housing market of today. Mortgage rates are different, market drivers are different, and the pool of buyers is likely different, too.

We can’t discuss today’s housing market with “April” in mind. The data is irrelevant.

Another flaw is that both reports are national in scope. Real estate, by contrast, is local.

When we cite the Home Price Index or the Case-Shiller Index, for example, and say “home values rose 0.8% in April”, we’re just giving a national average. On the local level, some markets rose by more, some rose by less, and others actually fell.

People buy homes on a specific block of a specific street in a specific neighborhood. Data for homes like that can’t be captured in a national survey.

The group that gets the most value from the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller is Wall Street and policy-makers. The indices do a fair job of reporting how housing behaves as a whole, but for individuals concerned with buying and selling homes, the best place to find real-time, accurate data is from a real estate professional.

Related posts:

1. Case-Shiller Shows Home Values Rolling Back 9 Years
2. Home Price Index Shows Values Down 19 Percent From Peak
3. “Homes Under Contract” Plunge 12 Percent In April

A report issued Monday by the U.S. government showed core inflation rising 2.5 percent in the last 12 months for its biggest one-year gain since January 2010.

Everyday living is becoming expensive, it seems.

But there are some U.S. towns in which the cost of living remains affordable — and downright cheap — as compared to the national average. They’re detailed in a BusinessWeek piece titled “The Cheapest 25 Cities In The U.S“.

In comparing costs across 340 urban areas as compiled by the Council of Community & Economic Research, cities in Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma ranked consistently high. Cities in Hawaii did not.

Take note, though. Although the BusinessWeek piece highlights inexpensive cities in which to live, a low cost of living does not necessarily correlate to a high standard of living. Cost-leader Harlingen, Texas, for example, boasts a poverty rate nearly triple the national average.

Other “Inexpensive Cities” feature similar poverty rates.

The Top 10 “cheapest cities”, as shown by BusinessWeek are:

1. Harlingen, Texas
2. Pueblo, Colorado
3. Pryor Creek, Oklahoma
4. McAllen, Texas
5. Cookeville, Tennessee
6. Commerce-Hunt County, Texas
7. Brownsville, Texas
8. Fort Smith, Arkansas
9. Muskogee, Oklahoma
10. Springfield, Illinois

And, at the other end of the spectrum, the top 5 most expensive cities/areas were, in order, Manhattan, New York; Brooklyn, New York; Honolulu, Hawaii; San Francisco, CA; and Queens, New York.

Manhattan’s cost of living is more than twice the national average.

The complete list is available at the BusinessWeek website.

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On paper, the market for newly-built, single-family homes looks healthy.

Last month, the number of new homes sold on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis tallied 319,000. The May reading is the second-highest of the year, and 6 percent above the current 12-month average.

These are strong numbers in isolation. However, after accounting for the dwindling supply of new homes for sale as well, the figures look even stronger.

In May, at the current pace of sales, the complete, national inventory of new homes for sale would have been sold in just 6.2 months. 

That’s the quickest pace in a year and a 3-month improvement from a year ago.

To hear it from homebuilders, though, you’d think that sales were crashing.

Homebuilder confidence slipped to a 9-month low this month; builders report slowing foot traffic; and the prospects for the next 6 months appear weak. This is not the portrait painted by HUD’s May New Home Sales report.

As a home buyer in Danville , this dichotomy may work to your advantage.

Falling supplies and rising demand correlate to higher home prices. Yet, builders are pessimistic for their market. Therefore, despite the economics, psychology may help buyers experience more favorable negotiations, including complimentary upgrades and other builder concessions.

If you’re a buyer in today’s market, it’s a reason to consider the new home market. There may be good value once you know where to look.

Related posts:

1. Homebuilder Confidence Slips To 9-Month Low
2. As Buyer Traffic Grows, Homebuilder Confidence Slips
3. Demand Is Rising, Supplies Are Falling : Home Prices Set To Rise?