Data Colada

[134] Figuring Out Figure 1

Joe Simmons — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:02:37 +0000

A few years ago our Journal Club discussed an interesting methods paper entitled, “Putting Psychology to the Test: Rethinking Model Evaluation Through Benchmarking and Prediction” (.htm). This post describes my attempt to understand what’s happening in Figure 1 of that paper, which shows that extremely simple experiments can generate extremely negative R2s. I learned a...

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[133] Heterofriendly: The Intuition for Why You Always Need Robust Standard Errors

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 12:00:27 +0000

When I taught my first PhD-level methods course, I invited students to submit questions about any topic in statistics or methodology. Six out of 10 students asked about the same topic: robust & clustered standard errors. It's clearly a topic they found both important and confusing. Psychologists basically never use robust standard errors. But they...

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[132] statuser: R in user-friendly mode

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 16 Feb 2026 13:00:06 +0000

t.test(), the R function for running t-tests, is disconcertingly imperfect. A t-test involves computing the difference between two means. And yet, t.test(), does not report… …said difference of means. It reports the p-value for the difference of means, it reports the confidence interval for the difference of means, but not the difference of means itself....

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[131] Bending Over Backwards: The Quadratic Puts the U in AI

Uri Simonsohn — Wed, 10 Dec 2025 12:01:57 +0000

For a recent journal club in Barcelona, we read a just published article in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General (JEP:G). The paper is on the impact of using gen-AI on creativity. The paper proposes an inverted U: people are most creative with moderate levels of AI use. The paper has three studies. Studies 1...

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The Quadratic Puts the U in AI appeared first on Data Colada.

[130] ResearchBox: Even Easier to Use and More Transparently Permanent than Before

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 17 Nov 2025 12:03:00 +0000

Over the past 10 years or so, posting data, code, and materials for published papers has gone from eccentric to mundane. There are a few platforms that enable sharing research files, including ResearchBox. ResearchBox is hosted by the Wharton Credibility Lab, which I co-direct. We also host the pre-registration platform AsPredicted, and a new platform...

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[129] P-curve works in practice, but would it work if you dropped a piano on it?

Uri Simonsohn — Tue, 23 Sep 2025 11:00:10 +0000

P-curve is a statistical tool we developed about 15 years ago to help rule out selective reporting, be it p-hacking or file-drawering, as the sole explanation for a set of significant results. This post is about a forthcoming critique of p-curve in the statistics journal JASA (pdf). The authors identify four p-curve properties they object...

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[128] LinkedOut: The Best Published Audit Study, And Its Interesting Shortcoming

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 23 Jun 2025 11:00:40 +0000

There is a recent QJE paper reporting a LinkedIn audit study comparing responses to requests by Black vs White young males. I loved the paper. At every turn you come across a clever, effortful, and effective solution to a challenge posed by studying discrimination in a field experiment. But, no paper is perfect, and this...

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[127] Meaningless Means #4: Correcting Scientific Misinformation

Joe Simmons — Wed, 18 Jun 2025 12:00:59 +0000

Before we got distracted by things like being sued, we had been working on a series called Meaningless Means, which exposed the fact that meta-analytic averaging is (really) bad. When a meta-analysis says something like, “The average effect of mindsets on academic performance is d = .32”, you should not take it at face value....

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[126] Stimulus Plots

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 02 Jun 2025 10:59:33 +0000

When we design experiments, we have to decide how to generate and select the stimuli that we use to test our hypotheses. In a forthcoming JPSP article, “Stimulus Sampling Reimagined” (htm), we propose that for at least 60 years we have been thinking about stimulus selection in experiments in the wrong way [1]. Specifically, with...

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[125] "Complexity" 2: Don't be mean to the median

Uri Simonsohn — Tue, 01 Apr 2025 11:00:04 +0000

In Colada[124] I summarized a co-authored critique (with Banki, Walatka and Wu) of a recent AER paper that proposed risk preferences reflect 'complexity' rather than preferences a-la Prospect Theory. Ryan Oprea, the AER author, has written a rejoinder (.pdf). Its first main point (pages 5-12), is that our results with medians are 'knife edge' (p.8),...

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[124] "Complexity": 75% of participants missed comprehension questions in AER paper critiquing Prospect Theory

Uri Simonsohn — Fri, 14 Mar 2025 11:00:22 +0000

Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) “Prospect Theory” article is the most cited paper in the history of economics, and it won Kahneman the Nobel Prize in 2002. Among other things, it predicts that people are risk seeking for unlikely gains (e.g., they pay more than $1 for a 1% chance of $100) but risk averse for...

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[123] Dear Political Scientists: The binning estimator violates ceteris paribus

Uri Simonsohn — Wed, 05 Mar 2025 12:00:31 +0000

This post delves into a disagreement I have with three prominent political scientists, Jens Hainmueller, Jonathan Mummolo, and Yiqing Xu (HMX), on a fundamental methodological question: how to analyze interactions in observational data? In 2019, HMX proposed the "binning estimator" for studying interactions, a technique that is now commonly used by political scientists. I argued...

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[122] Arresting Flexibility: A QJE field experiment on police behavior with about 40 outcome variables

Uri Simonsohn — Tue, 07 Jan 2025 12:00:16 +0000

A forthcoming paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics (QJE), "A Cognitive View of Policing" (htm), reports results from a field experiment showing that teaching police officers to "consider different ways of interpreting situations they encounter" led to "reductions in use of force, [and] discretionary arrests" (abstract). In this post I explain why, having spent...

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[121] Dear Political Scientists: Don't Bin, GAM Instead

Uri Simonsohn — Tue, 03 Dec 2024 12:00:30 +0000

There is a 2019 paper, in the journal Political Analysis (htm), with over 1000 Google cites, titled "How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice". The paper is not just widely cited, but is also actually influential. Most political science papers estimating interactions now-a-days, seem to...

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[120] Off-Label Smirnov: How Many Subjects Show an Effect in Between-Subjects Experiments?

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 16 Sep 2024 11:00:25 +0000

There is a classic statistical test known as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test (Wikipedia). This post is about an off-label use of the KS-test that I don’t think people know about (not even Kolmogorov or Smirnov), and which seems useful for experimentalists in behavioral science and beyond (most useful, I think, for clinical trials and field...

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[119] A Hidden Confound in a Psych Methods Pre‑registrations Critique

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 02 Sep 2024 11:00:02 +0000

A forthcoming paper in Psych Methods (.pdf) had a set of coders evaluate 300 pre-registrations in terms of how informative they were about several study attributes (e.g., hypotheses, analysis, DVs). The authors analyzed the subjective codings and concluded that many pre-registrations in psychology, especially those relying on the AsPredicted template, provide insufficient information., Central to...

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[118] Harvard’s Gino Report Reveals How A Dataset Was Altered

Joe Simmons — Tue, 09 Jul 2024 13:15:09 +0000

As you may know, Harvard professor Francesca Gino is suing us for defamation after (1) we alerted Harvard to evidence of fraud in four studies that she co-authored, (2) Harvard investigated and placed her on administrative leave, and (3) we summarized the evidence in four blog posts. As part of their investigation, Harvard wrote a...

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[117] The Impersonator: The Fake Data Were Coming From Inside the Lab

Uri Simonsohn — Wed, 12 Jun 2024 11:00:34 +0000

A previous version of this post was supposed to go live in January 2019. But the day before it was scheduled, the Data Colada team (Uri, Leif, and Joe) received an email that we took to be a potential death threat. After discussions with the local police, the FBI, and our families, we decided to...

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[116] Our (First?) Day In Court

Leif Joe and Uri — Wed, 08 May 2024 11:00:54 +0000

“Any update on the lawsuit?” That is the most common question any of us is asked. It is usually preceded by an apologetic preamble, like, “sorry if this is a sensitive question,” or “I don’t know if you’re tired of talking about this, but…” The reality is that, for the most part, our actual sensitivity...

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[115] Preregistration Prevalence

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 13 Nov 2023 12:00:30 +0000

Pre-registration is the best and possibly only solution to p-hacking. Ten years ago, pre-registrations were virtually unheard of in psychology, but they have become increasingly common since then. I was curious just how common they have become, and so I collected some data. This post shares the results. The data From the Web of Science...

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[114] Exhibits 3, 4, and 5

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Sat, 16 Sep 2023 12:48:38 +0000

We recently presented evidence of data tampering in four retracted papers co-authored by Harvard Business School professor Francesca Gino. She is now suing the three of us (and Harvard University). Gino’s lawsuit (.htm), like many lawsuits, contains a number of Exhibits that present information relevant to the case. For example, the lawsuit contains some Exhibits...

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[113] Data Litigada: Thank You (And An Update)

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:00:43 +0000

Thank You A few months ago we reported evidence of data tampering in four papers that have since been retracted (or re-retracted) (Colada[109] .htm). A few weeks ago we were sued for doing so (Vox .htm). Lawsuits can be very expensive, and a thoughtful and generous group of colleagues and supporters started a fundraising campaign...

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[112] Data Falsificada (Part 4): "Forgetting The Words"

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Fri, 30 Jun 2023 14:35:46 +0000

This is the last post in a four-part series detailing evidence of fraud in four academic papers co-authored by Harvard Business School Professor Francesca Gino. It is worth reiterating two things. First, to the best of our knowledge, none of Gino’s co-authors carried out or assisted with the data collection for the studies in this...

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[111] Data Falsificada (Part 3): "The Cheaters Are Out of Order"

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Fri, 23 Jun 2023 12:27:39 +0000

This is the third in a four-part series of posts detailing evidence of fraud in four academic papers co-authored by Harvard Business School Professor Francesca Gino. It is worth reiterating that to the best of our knowledge, none of Gino’s co-authors carried out or assisted with the data collection for the studies in this series....

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[110] Data Falsificada (Part 2): "My Class Year Is Harvard"

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Tue, 20 Jun 2023 11:00:01 +0000

This is the second in a four-part series of posts detailing evidence of fraud in four academic papers co-authored by Harvard Business School Professor Francesca Gino. It is worth reiterating that to the best of our knowledge, none of Gino’s co-authors carried out or assisted with the data collection for the studies in this series....

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[109] Data Falsificada (Part 1): "Clusterfake"

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Sat, 17 Jun 2023 14:17:51 +0000

This is the introduction to a four-part series of posts detailing evidence of fraud in four academic papers co-authored by Harvard Business School Professor Francesca Gino. In 2021, we and a team of anonymous researchers examined a number of studies co-authored by Gino, because we had concerns that they contained fraudulent data. We discovered evidence...

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[108] MRAN is Dead, long live GRAN

Uri Simonsohn — Fri, 28 Apr 2023 11:00:51 +0000

Microsoft has been making daily copies of the entire CRAN website of R packages since 2014. This archive, named MRAN, allows installing older versions of packages, which is valuable for reproducibility purposes. The 15,000+ R packages on CRAN are incessantly updated. For example, the package tidyverse depends on 109 packages; these packages accumulate 63 updates, just...

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[107] Meaningless Means #3: The Truth About Lies

Joe Leif Uri — Tue, 28 Feb 2023 12:30:34 +0000

This is the third post in a series (.htm) in which we argue/show that meta-analytic means are often meaningless, because they often (1) include invalid tests of the hypothesis of interest to the meta-analyst and (2) combine incommensurate results. The meta-analysis we discuss here explores how dishonesty differs across four different experimental paradigms (e.g., coin...

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[106] Meaningless Means #2: The Average Effect of Nudging in Academic Publications is 8.7%

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Tue, 29 Nov 2022 12:00:22 +0000

This post is the second in a series (.htm) in which we argue that meta-analytic means are often meaningless, because these averages (1) include invalid tests of the meta-analytic research question, and (2) aggregate incommensurable results. In each post we showcase examples of (1) and (2) in a different published meta-analysis. We seek out meta-analyses...

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[105] Meaningless Means #1: The Average Effect of Nudging Is d = .43

Joe Leif Uri — Thu, 03 Nov 2022 11:00:49 +0000

This post is the second in a series (see its introduction: htm) arguing that meta-analytic means are often meaningless, because (1) they include results from invalid tests of the research question of interest to the meta-analyst, and (2) they average across fundamentally incommensurable results. In this post we focus primarily on problem (2), though problem...

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of Nudging Is d = .43 appeared first on Data Colada.

[104] Meaningless Means: Some Fundamental Problems With Meta-Analytic Averages

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Tue, 01 Nov 2022 11:00:18 +0000

This post is an introduction to a series of posts about meta-analysis [1]. We think that many, perhaps most, meta-analyses in the behavioral sciences are invalid. In this introductory post, we make that case with arguments. In subsequent posts, we will make that case by presenting examples taken from published meta-analyses. We have recently written...

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[103] Mediation Analysis is Counterintuitively Invalid

Uri Simonsohn — Mon, 26 Sep 2022 11:00:02 +0000

Mediation analysis is very common in behavioral science despite suffering from many invalidating shortcomings. While most of the shortcomings are intuitive [1], this post focuses on a counterintuitive one. It is one of those quirky statistical things that can be fun to think about, so it would merit a blog post even if it were...

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[102] R on Steroids: Running WAY faster simulations in R

Uri Simonsohn — Tue, 06 Sep 2022 11:00:15 +0000

This post shows how to run simulations (loops) in R that can go 50 times faster than the default approach of running code like: for (k in 1:100) on your laptop. Obviously, a bit of a niche post. There are two steps. Step 1 involves running parallel rather than sequential loops [1]. This step can...

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[101] Transparency Makes Research Evaluable: Evaluating a Field Experiment on Crime Published in Nature

Joe & Uri — Thu, 28 Apr 2022 11:00:16 +0000

A recently published Nature paper (.htm) examined an interesting psychological hypothesis and applied it to a policy relevant question. The authors ran an ambitious field experiment and posted all their data, code, and materials. They also were transparent in showing the results of many different analyses, including some that yielded non-significant results. This is in...

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[100] Groundhog 2.0: Further addressing the threat R poses to reproducible research

Uri Simonsohn — Fri, 08 Apr 2022 11:00:46 +0000

About a year ago I wrote Colada[95], a post on the threat R poses to reproducible research. The core issue is the 'packages'. When using R, you can run library(some_package) and R can all of a sudden scrape a website, cluster standard errors, maybe even help you levitate. The problem is that packages get updated...

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[99] Hyping Fisher: The Most Cited 2019 QJE Paper Relied on an Outdated Stata Default to Conclude Regression p-values Are Inadequate

Uri Simonsohn — Wed, 13 Oct 2021 11:00:34 +0000

The paper titled "Channeling Fisher: Randomization Tests and the Statistical Insignificance of Seemingly Significant Experimental Results" (.htm) is currently the most cited 2019 article in the Quarterly Journal of Economics (372 Google cites). It delivers bad news to economists running experiments: their p-values are wrong. To get correct p-values, the article explains, they need to...

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[98] Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Field Experiment About Dishonesty

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Tue, 17 Aug 2021 13:00:14 +0000

This post is co-authored with a team of researchers who have chosen to remain anonymous. They uncovered most of the evidence reported in this post. These researchers are not connected in any way to the papers described herein. *** In 2012, Shu, Mazar, Gino, Ariely, and Bazerman published a three-study paper in PNAS (.htm) reporting...

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[97] Data Replicada #10: Does Goal Conflict Affect Time Spent on Work and Leisure?

Joe & Leif — Tue, 04 May 2021 12:00:01 +0000

In the tenth installment of Data Replicada, we report our attempt to replicate a recently published Journal of Consumer Research (JMR) article entitled, “Goal Conflict Encourages Work and Discourages Leisure” (.htm). The article’s two key hypotheses are right there in the title: People who are faced with a goal conflict are (1) more likely to...

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[96] Madam Speaker: Are Female Presenters Treated Worse in Econ Seminars?

Uri Simonsohn — Fri, 30 Apr 2021 11:00:02 +0000

A recent NBER paper titled "Gender and the Dynamics of Economics Seminars" (.htm) reports analyses of audience questions asked during 462 economics seminars, concluding that “women are asked more questions . . . and the questions asked of women are more likely to be patronizing or hostile . . . suggest[ing] yet another potential explanation...

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[95] Groundhog: Addressing The Threat That R Poses To Reproducible Research

Uri Simonsohn — Tue, 05 Jan 2021 12:01:37 +0000

R, the free and open source program for statistical computing, poses a substantial threat to the reproducibility of published research. This post explains the problem and introduces a solution. The Problem: Packages R itself has some reproducibility problems (see example in this footnote [1]), but the big problem is its packages: the addon scripts that...

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[94] Data Replicada #9: Are Progression Ads More Credible?

Joe & Leif — Thu, 03 Dec 2020 12:00:04 +0000

In the ninth installment of Data Replicada, we report our attempt to replicate a recently published Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) article entitled, “Advertising a Desired Change: When Process Simulation Fosters (vs. Hinders) Credibility and Persuasion” (.htm). Some products, such as weight loss programs, exist to help consumers attain a desired change. In this paper,...

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[93] ResearchBox: Open Research Made Easy

Uri, Joe, & Leif — Fri, 30 Oct 2020 10:59:44 +0000

This post introduces ResearchBox, a new platform for easily sharing data, code, materials, and pre-registrations. With a design and approach similar to AsPredicted, ResearchBox simplifies, standardizes, and organizes supporting materials for publishable research. Compared to the current leading platform, the OSF, ResearchBox is narrowly designed to make it easy for authors to share data, code,...

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[92] Data Replicada #8: Is The Left-Digit Bias Stronger When Prices Are Presented Side-By-Side?

Joe & Leif — Thu, 01 Oct 2020 11:00:58 +0000

In the eighth installment of Data Replicada, we report our attempt to replicate a recently published Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) article entitled, “The Left-Digit Bias: When and Why Are Consumers Penny Wise and Pound Foolish?” (.htm). In this paper, the authors offer insight into a previously documented observation known as the left-digit bias, whereby...

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[91] p-hacking fast and slow: Evaluating a forthcoming AER paper deeming some econ literatures less trustworthy

Uri Simonsohn — Tue, 15 Sep 2020 11:00:22 +0000

The authors of a forthcoming AER article (.pdf), "Methods Matter: P-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics", painstakingly harvested thousands of test results from 25 economics journals to answer an interesting question: Are studies that use some research designs more trustworthy than others? In this post I will explain why I think their...

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[90] Data Replicada #7: Does Displaying Multiple Copies of a Product Increase Its Perceived Effectiveness?

Joe & Leif — Tue, 18 Aug 2020 14:00:48 +0000

In the seventh installment of Data Replicada, we report our attempt to replicate a recently published Journal of Consumer Research (JCR) article entitled, “Product Entitativity: How the Presence of Product Replicates Increases Perceived and Actual Product Efficacy” (.html). In this paper, the authors propose that “presenting multiple product replicates as a group (vs. presenting a...

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[89] Data Replicada #6: The Problem of (Weird) Differential Attrition

Joe & Leif — Tue, 21 Jul 2020 13:00:21 +0000

In this sixth installment of Data Replicada, we report our attempt to replicate a recently published Journal of Consumer Research (JCR) article entitled, “The Impact of Resource Scarcity on Price-Quality Judgments” (.html). This one was full of surprises. The primary thesis of this article is straightforward: “Scarcity decreases consumers’ tendency to use price to judge...

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[88] The Hot-Hand Artifact for Dummies & Behavioral Scientists

Uri Simonsohn — Wed, 27 May 2020 12:58:06 +0000

A friend recently asked for my take on the Miller and Sanjurjo's (2018; pdf) debunking of the hot hand fallacy. In that paper, the authors provide a brilliant and surprising observation missed by hundreds of people who had thought about the issue before, including the classic Gilovich, Vallone, & Tverksy (1985 .htm). In this post:...

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[87] Data Replicada #5: Do Human-Like Products Inspire More Holistic Judgments?

Joe & Leif — Wed, 20 May 2020 11:00:37 +0000

In the fifth installment of Data Replicada, we report our attempt to replicate a recently published Journal of Consumer Research (JCR) article entitled, “The Influence of Product Anthropomorphism on Comparative Choice” (.html). A product becomes “anthropomorphized” when it is imbued with human-like features, such as a face or a name. For example, this camera, which...

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[86] The Data Colada Seminar Series

Leif Joe and Uri — Mon, 20 Apr 2020 10:45:52 +0000

We miss the old seminars and conferences. While we wait for those to happen again, we’ve decided to organize a seminar series ourselves. Most talks will probably be about behavioral science, but we are figuring things out as we go. The one thing that all talks will have in common is that all three of...

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[85] Data Replicada #4: The Problem of Hidden Confounds

Joe & Leif — Tue, 10 Mar 2020 12:00:57 +0000

In this installment of Data Replicada, we report on Study 3 of a recently published Journal of Consumer Research article entitled, “Does Curiosity Tempt Indulgence?” (.htm). In that study, participants were induced to feel curious or not and then were asked to (hypothetically) choose between two gym memberships, one for a “normal” gym and one...

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