Your welcome BeeTrader!
Have a great day, and stay safe.
Best Regards
DowBoy

Thanks for your other Excel spreadsheets they are very useful.

Cheers

I hope everything going well for you, i just found your SuperTrader Mindmap and i just love it. I’m going to change it a little bit according to my strategy and vision. Thank you very much for this and wish you all the best possible !

Kind Regards

HOW do I find the part 2 of this masterpiece article?
Thanks!

Thank you Thiago.
Yes, at times it was a’tour de force,’ but it was fun putting this online.
Many thanks for your compliment.
I’ll take a look at your website as well, as it looks interesting.
Best Regards
DowBoy

Regards
Ian

You are 100% right. Concentrate on what you need to do in order to become successful. Discipline and the correct mindset will get you there. Follow the principals to the Law of Attraction and focus on what you want. Do not focus on what you do not want.

You’re welcome Jet,
Losing is a part of winning.
There is never total black, or white in trading or life.
To win in trading also means to accept losing as a part of winning.

Question is, within your strategy, defining your max levels of loss so you still are a NETT winner!
Regards
DowBoy

Thanks,

Al

Hello Rich,
Thank you for visiting my website.
You ask “Can you elaborate more on what is the “ONLY” that are needed to focus on to become a super trader?”

The main point I was making Rich is to focus on variables that are within your control; with a positive future orientated mind set.
Here’s an example Rich to this point that I would like to convey.

More that 10 years ago,, it was estimated that there had been about 40,000 studies on depression yet at that same time only around 400 on joy & happiness.
We are lead to believe that if we study and know all the characteristics of depression, that will then lead us to comprehend & attain happiness.
Our society has drummed into our subconscious; making us believe that things like excellence is just the opposite of failure.
So, basically we are often told to study the opposite of what we should be focusing our attention on; believing all that we have to do is just invert it so we are left with what we need/want to know.

Another example Rich: We study unhappy customers so we think we then understand happy customers.
So, if you want to be a great trader you should study fear & losing mindsets so that you now know how not to trade; which then means by this rational that you just invert it to be left with what a winning mind set is.
Trader’s are lead to believe that good trading is the opposite of bad trading,,,
Study all things bad about trading, invert,, then you know what needs to be done to achieve good trading.

Studying long and hard about Trading Mistakes tells you nothing about Good Trading,,
“IT ONLY TELLS YOU ABOUT THE CHARACTERISTICS OF BAD TRADING!”

I think you get the picture Rich.

The saying “You learn from your mistakes,” is flawed.
“YOU ONLY LEARN ABOUT THE CHARACTERISTICS OF MISTAKES FROM MISTAKES,” Rich.

Here’s the real answer Rich.

To make real progress Rich In the markets, you MUST study Successful trading techniques & mindset factors.Understand ALL you can to get to grips with Trading DISCIPLINE, FOCUS, CONFIDENCE (confidence being the main ingredient in over coming fear).
Study what you can control; capitalize on applying your strengths.
Learn to trade, track, monitor & improve on positive strength based characteristics within your trading Rich.
Study & work hard on improving whats good about you & your trading.
Focus your time & energy on everything that can help & improve your trading.
2 choices; (Both have there place, but here,, you can choose only 1).

1. Building Strengths?
2. Fixing Weaknesses?
Which gives better results for the same amount of effort Rich?

Be the contrarian Rich, you’ll be thinking from a minority point of view if you go with your Strengths as the primary rational to your trading.
But this is exactly how you want to think Rich.
Pareto style,,
Most traders lose money in the markets; most traders study failure & invert!
“TRADE TO YOU STRENGTHS Rich.” – Regard; DowBoy

thanks for reading my blog also!

keep up the good work!

regards,

ivan

Congrats for you page and excellent tools that you bring here
i like it…
is possible talk to you about somethings?

thank you.
andres

I really like the quality of content you have on your site. I also have a blog, http://www.jetsettrader.com and doing my best to provide resources and content. Maybe sometime we can collaborate or even have you post one of your articles on my site. I really like your content. All the best, Serif

Hello John,
I think you aren’t quite sure what you want! 🙂
Now you say & I quote:
“Those 3 streaks could be all over the place, not necessarily following one each other.”
&
“I will encounter at least 3 times consecutive, a streak of 3 or longer loss.”
So,, you mention now 3 consecutive losses FOLLOWING each other.

John; this is now a consecutive losing streak of 9 (Or More)!!
The probability of this from the above mentioned criteria is: 0.44%

3 losses in a row, following one another John = 9 consecutive losses.

I hope this wraps this up John.
I hope you are enjoying using the calculators though.

Regards,
DowBoy

etc etc.

Ok, so i read i have a 77.34% chance to have 3 or more times streaks of 3 or longer over 100 trials/trades.

However those 3 streaks could be all over the place, not necesarilly following one each other. Do you understand now what i mean?

I just wanted to find a way how i can aproximate the case when in 100 trials with losing probab of 40% , i will encounter at least 3 times consecutive, a streak of 3 or longer loss…..

Thanks, i hope i dont give you to much headache..
John

John, as I stated before,
You need to know what your losing % is in order to get the correct data.
In my example (with a 40% losing probability)
I state;
“It to occur 3 or more times:77.34%”
That’s your answer if; your average trading win % is 60% within a 100 trade sample run.

So, again to clarify;
If your trade run is 100 trades & your trading style is giving you on average a 40% losing; IE (60% win rate) there is a 77.34% chance you will have a losing streak of 3 consecutive trades 3 (or more) times within this 100 trade sample size.

Play with the calc John, you’ll “get It” in the end.
Best regards;
DowBoy

thank you very much taking your time for an answer!

With the example you provided, how can i calculate the probability of 3 consecutive losses, 3 consecutive times in 100 trades?
This was actually my original question, probably not very clear stated.

Thanks again.
John.

Hello John, No ,, sorry to say you are wrong:-(
They are spreadsheets for “CONSECUTIVE” losing streaks.
You ask “example 5 consecutive streaks of 3 losses in 100 trials?”

John, you need to know what your losing % is in order to ascertain the probability of (As in your question) “5 Consecutive streaks of 3 losses in a Row.”
If you open the “Multiple Losing Streak Probability Calculator” you will see the right hand table is a “Multiple” Losing Streak Matrix.
What You Need To Do:
Set trades to 100 in the quick calc.
Set the quick calc Losing streak No to “0”
Then you MUST enter your Loss % probability.
If you trade with a 60% accuracy(win rate), enter 40% (Loss Probability).

It will return all the stats from 2-15 consecutive losses within a 100 trade sample run & with the stipulated 40% losing Probability.
With 100 Trades/40% loss Prob, the returned stats for 3 CONSECUTIVE losses in a row are as follows;
It to occur 1 or more times:98.80%
It to occur 2 or more times:92.51%
It to occur 3 or more times:77.34%
It to occur 4 or more times:54.87%
It to occur 5 or more times:32.05%
It to occur 6 or more times:15.19%
It to occur 7 or more times:5.80%
It to occur 8 or more times:1.78%
It to occur 9 or more times:0.44%
It to occur 10 or more times:0.09%
It to occur 11 or more times:0.01%
It to occur 12 or more times:0%

Please just bear in mind also; 0% (Is rounded, via formatting in the spreadsheet to show only 2 decimal places. If I removed this formatting, 0% would/could actually be a positive number, but a value very close to 0%)

I hope this helps you John.
Best Regards;
DowBoy

how do you calculate with the excel’s You provided, the probability of consecutive multiple streaks? That is, probability to have for example 5 consecutive streaks of 3 losses in 100 trials ?

I think the calculators only calculate the probability of multiple streaks but not consecutive, am i right?

Thanks.

Hello Santo, yes I am very pleased with my Trading Chair. Just to add;
Trading IS Human Performance. All Super Traders seek to trade ‘Optimally’ in a flow like state, ‘The Trading Zone.’
When something comes along that on some level can aid you into attaining this ‘Zone’ like state, take note!
A Super Trader seeks ‘Edges’ from all facets of life; be it health, emotional, relationships etc, not just trading per-say.
Only when there is an equilibrium across these facets, a unity; coherence, the trader has now created the environment (aided also by edges such as the ‘Embody’) to ‘Trade In The Zone.’
The Zone can only exist in a state of pure PEACE. Edges help to create this peaceful place where only ‘Super Traders’ live with consistency.
The Herman Miller ‘Embody’ IS (at some level) a trader’s edge.
Good luck with your trading Santo.
Remember; ultimately, PEACE is what we all seek. In life and in Trading.
PEACE.
Best Regards.
DowBoy

Day trading affirmations refers to completing the entire trade verification process on the same day that the actual trade took place. This process ensures that the parties are in agreement about the essential trade details. Thanks a lot…

share market

Many thanks for contacting my blog again Santo.
yes, you are right, it has been a while.
Quite a few things have been happening here in my personal life,
so unfortunately, my blog has had to be put on hold for a while.
next month (Feb 2011) I will be back on track. So, please, bear
with me as new updates & content will follow I promise.
Best Regards;
Dow-Boy

Stephen

Many thanks for your comments Brad.

Yes, how Marcus explains and rationalizes how we as humans tend to be drawn to study subjects in a way that initiates a need to actually focus more on the negative and opposite attributes of the very subject matter we wish to improve on!

This is a major stumbling block that most people face when learning new skills.

We are in an information age when we feel the need to know more and more, yet it’s not the volume of information that is important, it’s where we chose to focus and what we focus on that is important.

A very good video relative to this point by Marcus is here:
Marcus Buckingham – Strengths-Based Thinking & Application

IE,,, “You don’t need to study depression to learn about joy.”
The above video I like for the following quotes;
“If you want good we should study bad and invert it?” Actually,,,
“If you study bad and invert it you get,,,not bad!”

As to my “Super Trader Mind Map.” I have created this using some mindmapping software called, Mindjet MindManager,
DowBoy’s Mind Mapping Software
This is an excellent piece of software for mindmapping. I will include a mindjet version of my ST Mind Map soon which will make this a lot more interactive.

Again, many thanks for your comments.
I hope to publish some more material very shortly.
Best regards;
Dow-Boy

Not sure if you’ve read any of Marcus Buckingham’s work on Strengths, but his philosophy is very similar to yours.

You can’t learn success by simply studying failure.
Keep up the great work.

Lastly, how did you create the Super Trader Mind Map picture?

Is it a series of mini mind maps merged in Photoshop or something completely different?
I’m keen to adapt your concept to another topic.
Regards,
Brad

Dear Jason,
Thank you for your comments regarding goals/goal setting (incorporated into my ST Mindmap).

You say; “The only issue I have with your material is goal setting. Goal setting is in major conflict to almost everything else on your blog and you may not even realize it.”
After reading your comments, here is my reply.
I am not offended by your comments Jason, debate is healthy; but I am completely aware of the role/structure that goals and goal setting play within the Super Trader’s Matrix.

Goals are a key concept that help the Super Trader become,,,,

We can talk in semantics, IE let’s choose the words ‘focus’ or ‘discipline’ or ‘rules’, ‘vision’ etc etc. Whilst these words are important individually, and key concepts within a S.T’s make up, there is a ‘holarchy’ at work. All these parts naturally make up the whole, that support one another and are not as individual as first envisioned; but each ‘feed’ off each other, support one another, creating this Eco system, a living breathing system at work (The Super Trader’s Matrix) that strives for perfection within the day trading arena.

So goals and a goal setting framework ultimately cannot be conceived as a individualistic part at work, but more of an essential ‘organ’ that CANNOT be excluded as it is as essential to his system as our heart/liver/kidneys are to our survival.

Regarding one of your paragraphs Jason;

“In my experience trading the markets I tend to notice that the market provides opportunities when it provides opportunities and it doesn’t when it doesn’t. The point being, that daily, weekly, monthly,and maybe yearly goals are only obtainable through the opportunities provided.”
My reply is an agreement to some degree.

I ask you; “What is the most important part of trading?”

Well; my answer is simple; (Though many people might answer differently depending upon their level of understanding)
Answer: “The process of trading itself.”
I notice on your website ‘Resources page’ you have mentioned;
Change Your Thoughts – Change Your Life by Wayne Dyer.
Well, this leads me to assume you are well read (or have some understanding of the mind body connection, and with Mr. Dyer’s material (Similar to Chopra’s,) that time is illusionary, we live in the NOW.

ALL WE HAVE IS THE NOW J!

So, to some degree, I believe we agree.
What’s truly important is what we do in the now, do this, and the future will take care of its self.
But reading through some of your comments I feel they are slightly misplaced, for example;
You say Quote; “As such, if there are no opportunities provided the conscious mind, and perhaps the subconscious mind, tend to “force” bad trades all in the name of achieving an unobtainable goal set in the past.”
Answer: If you “FORCE ” a bad trade this isn’t due to bad use of goals, but to a lack of discipline, a completely different entity. Also, the lack of following to a plan springsto mind; and to add another; goals are not held in the past, this is misplaced thinking, they are ‘future orientated concepts.’
Here is an except from a paper I am in the process of writing now regarding goals to give slightly more weight to my reply;

You also mention, Quote; “Conscious goal setting is often in-congruent with one’s true goals which is why they are doomed to fail.”
Answer: “Don’t set goals that are not congruent with your deepest values and belief based system.
Why would you do this?” I don’t actually see any logic in this statement.

You also mention, Quote; “Goal setting in my opinion is all about the future, all about not accepting what is…in the here and now, and wanting things different than the way they are.”
Answer:  “You must accept what is, but, importantly goals instigate a strategy to achieve a desired result.”
Jason, I am in the process of writing a paper on goals and goal setting.(Mentioned above)
I will mention part of this paper now and give a brief 10 reasons why Day Traders should incorporate a goal setting goal orientated approach in their trading;

Why Do Super Trader’s Use Goals? Top 10 Reasons.
1. DESIRE:
2. VISION:
3. PERCEPTION:
4. PURPOSE:
5. FEEDBACK:
6. FOCUS:
7. ACCOUNTABILITY:
8. INTENTION:
9. HABITS FORMING:
10. CHANGE:

Please visit my post here regarding Goals and Goal Setting For The Day Trader:
Day Trading Goals and Goal Setting

NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE TRUE POWER OF GOALS!

To summarize Jason,
You say “How can you or anyone know what’s in store over the next day, week, month, or year and then attempt to take personal responsibility for that???”
In the above 10 reasons there is 1 that is so SO important to the day trader, and it’s trading in ‘The Now’, trading at the highest level one can, (which ultimately leads to focusing purely on ‘the process’ of trading’) that said, reason 8 is key.
“Goals for the Super Trader are used as a lens, shifting one’s ‘Frame Of Reference’ (His Thinking & Awareness) to envision new opportunities, guiding ones’ decisions within a structured ‘INTENTIONAL’ framework via conscious choice.
So Jason, via goals you will see opportunities that you just wouldn’t be looking for if you didn’t instigate a goal orientated approach.
It’s a bit like when you buy a brand new car, drive it for a few days, but instantly you notice all these cars exactly the same as your new car on the road. they always were there, but you just weren’t aware of them.
Opportunities to improve are always present for the Super Trader, and using a structured, rational and systematic approach via goal setting instigates a model that will shift your awareness to seek new opportunities that one wouldn’t even dream of if a goal approach wasn’t part of the mix.
THIS IS WHY GOALS ARE PART OF THE SUPER TRADER’S MATRIX.
I leave you with a quote Jason by Peter Drucker (The grandfather of business management)

“Objectives Are Not Fate; They Are Direction. They Are Not Commands;
They Are Commitments. They Do Not Determine The Future;
They Are Means To Mobilize The Resources And Energies Of The Business For The Making Of The Future.”

I hope you might reconsider a goal approach in your trading strategy Jason.
I haven’t gone into great detail or given trade examples etc, but I hope the above comments might make you consider that goals can and do play an important role in trading at the highest level.
Best regards

Dow-Boy.

A book chapter could be written on every box on this thing! Thanks for your effort!

Many Thanks for your kind words Jure.
Super Trader Mind Map will be constantly updated, with some excel spreadsheets soon to follow etc. Best Subscribe to my feed so you will know when updates have been added.
Regards: Dow-Bow