They gained what was easily their most important victory of the year tonight, August 3rd, beating the Braves 3-2 courtesy of a 9th-inning solo shot by Jeff Francoeur. They also got a 1-2-3 save from Frankie Rodriguez. The tie game had been set up by a 4-pitch walk to Frenchy in the 7th, a sacrifice bunt, and an RBI single by Chris Carter.

The Mets are 54-53. Symbolically, it’s great for them to stay above .500. They stand 6.5 games behind the Braves for first place in the NL East, 4 games behind the Phillies, with the Marlins breathing down their backs within half a game. The Mets are 7.5 back of the Wild Card, behind 5 teams.

This is where the Mets have to do some serious soul searching and find out who they really are. I think they can finish in first, or in fourth. They have plenty of talent. They just have to believe in themselves.

It’s a pitching staff that is good, fantastic when it’s rolling on all cylinders, with an ace in Johan Santana, an absolute godsend in R.A. Dickey, two sparkling young starters in Niese and Pelfrey, and a serviceable swingman in Hisanori Takahashi. Their bullpen has been good for the most part, with the current Flavor of the Week being Manny Acosta. The Mets could still stand to improve it through waivers. However, right now, it seems relatively reliable.

Their hitting has been inconsistent. They seem to have worked their way out of the massive funk they saw coming out of the gates for the second half. If Beltran gets going, and Bay comes back and gets hot, watch out. I think the Mets are truly missing Bay, as pitchers can just zoom through the bottom of the Mets’ lineup.

They have a tough stretch through the middle of August, facing the Phillies on the road, the Rockies, and the Phillies at home after they finish this series tomorrow (Pelf on the mound, by the way). Then, they get some cupcake games-the Mets still have yet to play the Pirates or Astros this year. Aside from that, though, almost all the Mets’ remaining games are within the division. And honestly, I’m more afraid of the unknown as opposed to the known. The Braves and Phillies are letting the Mets hang around. The Phillies in particular have been destroyed by injuries and have a much less intimidating lineup. The Braves have as much talent as the Mets, but have just been more consistent. The Marlins? Well, they are a similar team to the Mets-lots of talent, inconsistent.

The chance is there. They have to take advantage of it.

After annihilating the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright last night, the Mets have an opportunity to kick up a nice streak. The pitching matchup will be the very same of the 20-inning game on April 17-Johan Santana vs. Jaime Garcia.

La Russa has opted to throw a rather weak lineup out against Santana. A win tonight, and a chance to go for a sweep at noon tomorrow, would be huge-the Cardinals just came off a hot streak and they are a good, competitive matchup for the Mets if New York wants to be a playoff team.

On the player personnel front, it seems Jason Bay might follow Rod Barajas onto the DL after sustaining a mild concussion. His 2010 reminds me more and more of Wright’s 2009 season.

The Mets have called up Mike Hessman, A.K.A. Crash Davis, the Minor League career home run leader. I’m not sure who will replace Bay-perhaps Justin Turner.

The Mets continue to look for buy-low relief pitching, perhaps someone like Chad Qualls. Unless they swoop out of nowhere to pluck Roy Oswalt (like the Angels did for Dan Haren), it’s unlikely that they will pick up a starter. Every team seems to be asking for far more value than their pitcher is worth-for example, the Cubs want a top prospect for Ted Lilly.

I still wouldn’t mind seeing Castillo and Perez dumped somewhere. Perez in particular, because I believe his presence may not sit well with other players. He is making a ton of money and is not a hard worker at all. Perhaps the Royals or Cubs will take one or both of the two; for Farnsworth and Jose Guillen or Carlos Zambrano. Francoeur won’t be traded due to the injury to Bay.

I still hold the belief that the Mets are a playoff contender with the current roster, but as I said earlier, they could really use some improvement.

The point is, I’m getting the feeling that the Mets aren’t going to make any significant changes by the July 31 trade deadline, whether coaching-related or player personnel related.

The Mets can’t hit, are pitching well with a mediocre pitching coach, and have played wildly inconsistent baseball with a bad players’ manager. However, since they are so inconsistent, they look like worldbeaters at their best. And every time they move towards that end of the continuum, it convinces everyone in the organization that they can win with what they have.

They become complacent. I don’t know how badly the Mets have to play for their manager to be axed. I don’t know how badly they have to play for their hitting coach, a guy who only seems to be there because he was on one of the Mets’ two championship teams and that’s supposed to give some “motivation.”

You know what motivation is? Darryl Strawberry’s periodic criticism of the Mets. He’s done it before, and several Mets were discontented with it. Recently, he’s said that the Mets need to have more fire under their belly-that with the way they play, teams don’t fear them.

Teams don’t have reason to fear other squads who don’t come out with an intimidation factor, with hunger, who don’t just go through the motions. I’m a stat guy for baseball, and I’m not as big on chemistry and baseball psychology as more old-school types because every professional baseball player is amazing at what he does. Obviously, personalities differ, but there’s still a certain baseline every man sets for himself and performs up to. Some guys have trouble with in with changes of scenery: Beltran in 2005, Bay this year, etc. But the point is, something’s gotta give. The Mets have played lazy, go-through-the-motions baseball. Something has to be done to wake them up.

The Mets had reason to fire Jerry Manuel (rather, not extend him) after the 2008 collapse. Sure, they played better than they did under Willie, but Manuel constantly over- or under-managed and still bore witness to the second collapse in a row. In 2009, the Mets were destroyed by injuries. But they never played that well to begin with. After last year, the injuries excuse gave Jerry Manuel a free pass. Indeed, it may be that Omar just loves Jerry and wants to defend him. Or the Wilpons were too cheap to be paying three different managers’ contracts (Willie’s expired after 2009).

This team has talent, and that can’t be contested. The talent level is in fact very close to that of the 2006 Mets, who blew away the league with 97 wins with a rather pedestrian pitching staff. The lineup was better then, with Lo Duca and Valentin being better than Barajas and Castillo respectively. When you compare Green to Bay and Delgado to Davis you end up with a wash, and Endy Chavez was a great defender and a fan favorite, but Angel Pagan is a much better player. The starting pitching of this year’s team is much better. To compare the two:

Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Steve Trachsel
Orlando Hernandez
John Maine/Oliver Perez

vs.

Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Niese
R.A. Dickey
Hisanori Takahashi

I think we’re at a point with R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese where we can say they are good, solid pitchers. Niese could be a start at the rate he’s rising at-I see a lot of Cliff Lee, or at least Barry Zito, in him.

Pelfrey has been up and down, but has shown you flashes of greatness. Santana’s easily better than Glavine or Pedro was that year. Furthermore, this staff has managed to remain healthy. The top 4 of the rotation missed 27 starts in 2006 and never really had a “fifth starter;” John Maine made 15 starts and qualified as number 5. Darren Oliver, Alay Soler, Brian Bannister, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey all had a handful of starts each.

You can see where I’m going with this. There’s no denying the Mets have talent. But that’s exactly where the rub lies.

This organization has held out hope for years that the 2007, 2008, 2009, and now 2010 teams could match the 2006 team, which has become arguably one of the most popular Mets teams of all time-at least in this generation. We all remember. But they refuse to make proactive changes because they think they have enough. The reality is, that team’s offense never really hit a skid and just rolled through a weak National League that year. Funnily enough, the other three teams in the National League who made the playoffs that year all remain similar to this day. The Cardinals have improved with Holliday and Rasmus and the advent of Adam Wainwright. The Dodgers are a similarly good team with different players. The Diamondbacks, however, seemed to catch lightning in a bottle that year, because their team today is very similar to that team. Where I’m going with this is that the National League was weak that year. The Mets are blinded by the fact that since they won 97 games, the equally-talented ’10 team must be able to, despite that the NL is leaps and bounds stronger now than it was then.

The organization just does not make proactive moves. I was never an advocate of “blowing up the core” or rebuilding because the Mets a) have a ton of talent and b) have never really made “seller” type trades. I can back them in that sense. But furthermore, they are mediocre at developing prospects. Many teams often have a top prospect ranking in the top 25 from year-to-year. The Mets are not one of those teams. They draft poorly, no matter where they pick, and have only really succeeded with “sure thing” prospects (Wright, Davis) and the occasional Latin product like Reyes.

They have taken steps to promoting youth on the team, giving Davis the first base job, and giving Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada both shots at starting. But that’s been merely because they were forced to, either due to injury or utterly atrocious play by the “starters.” I’ll remind you that the Mets’ Opening Day first baseman was Mike Jacobs.

They don’t reinforce the supporting staff enough to make themselves a better overall contender. Luis Castillo is a below-average baseball player. They continue to make patchwork or risky signings for the bullpen to “hopefully” improve it. And they have refrained from bolstering the starting staff with anyone outside of R.A. Dickey since the Santana trade.

It’s like they continue to believe, year after year, that they will catch lightning in a bottle with guys like Perez and Maine in ’06, Tatis in ’08, Castillo in ’09, and even Murphy in ’08. It’s killing them, because it seems like they are content with making the moves that on the surface seem “good enough,” but in reality, aren’t even close.

It’s sad, because it’s almost like the only option at this point is to root for poor play that motivates change. But come on, how much poor play is enough? What already, a 2-9 road trip (that should have been 1-10, mind you) doesn’t knock some sense into you?

What a shame.

In 2009, the Mets were so decimated by injuries that Reyes probably wouldn’t have made a difference. With full health this year, he’s probably worth another 2 wins or so to this point.

Reyes’ contract is actually up after this year, but the club has a $11 million option it can exercise on Reyes, which it will undoubtedly do.

The trio of injuries that have affected Reyes over the past two seasons have called his health into question as well as somewhat decreasing his stock “on the field:” since teams have not seen him as 100%, they will inherently view his abilities having declined somewhat, which I believe is untrue-we have indeed seen the best of Reyes this year; incidentally, it was during his hottest stretch starting in the third week of May that went through his injury during the Puerto Rico series that he, and the Mets, were at their best.

But getting back to 2011, Reyes has the ability to walk after the season. However, he’s said he would prefer not to leave the Mets. It’s clear that he’s very comfortable in New York and has enjoyed playing with the core of this team. He seems to like being the center of attention, and at his best, he draws that attention which feeds into him even more.

So the plus here is that Reyes’ injuries could actually decrease his market value to the point where if he ends up taking a hometown discount, the Mets could save to a second degree. It’s also important because when you talk about locking Reyes up into his mid-30s, the same will have to be done with David Wright two years later, and David is certain to make $20 million a year if he keeps up his stellar play, maybe less with the hometown discount.

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Luis Castillo 2B
3. Angel Pagan CF
4. David Wright 3B
5. Carlos Beltran CF
6. Ike Davis 1B
7. Jason Bay LF
8. Henry Blanco C
9. Johan Santana LHP

Like it except for Castillo in the 2-hole. But seeing as Pagan is the Mets’ best hitter at the moment, for now, put him in that 3-hole and make the lineup deeper down low. Perhaps it will send a signal to Bay, as well.

It’s pretty clear that with one or two more losses, Jerry Manuel may be gone. Bob Melvin is the favorite for the job, as he’s a guy who’s in the middle of the continuum of “players’ manager” vs. “motivator.” Mets fans will clamor for Bobby Valentine, Wally Backman, and maybe even Davey Johnson. Valentine is obviously a popular candidate due to his reputation and achievements with the Mets, but some fans tend to ignore his negatives, which can show up often. Backman is inexperienced as a manager (only a few years in the minors overall) and is better suited as a developmental motivator. And Johnson, well, who knows.

Manuel isn’t fully to blame for New York’s trials this year. But he’s got to shoulder a lot of it. Players love playing for him, but in terms of motivation, I don’t really think he is assertive enough, nor does he push players to the degree they should be. He’s also terrible with in-game management and has worn out more than his fair share of bullpen arms in his days as Mets manager.

The Mets are at a crossroads. The team has just been dead these last few days, and everyone is to blame for that. They have to pick themselves up and start hitting. It will come back, that much is for sure. But they can’t fall too far behind so that they are catching up. They have to stay in the race. Amidst all their struggles, they remain just 4 games back of the Wild Card and 7.5 games back in the division-neither of which are at all insurmountable deficits. But they can’t wait around. They can prove a lot to their fans and themselves by turning this road trip around and fighting through this tough stretch where they still must face a host of good ballclubs.

The Mets were swept by one of the worst teams in the league-a team that could hit, but cannot pitch at all. This is on the heels of a series loss to the Giants and general poor play by the Mets (series losses to the Marlins, Reds, and Braves, and a four-game split with the Nats) since Interleague Play ended.

What’s puzzling is how cold the Mets lineup has gone since Beltran returned. One doesn’t affect the other-to assert that it’s Beltran’s fault is a picture perfect example of the post ergo propter hoc logic fallacy (the idea that because thing A came before thing B, thing A caused thing B). Castillo’s return hasn’t meant much-it hurts the defense a bit, but once Castillo starts hitting he’s a boon in the eighth spot.

The Mets are pitching pretty well but absolutely cannot hit. Outside of a handful of solo homers, they have been absolutely unable to drive in runs. They are 5-33 with runners in scoring position in the second half-a .150 batting average. Yikes.

As far as pitching goes, Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey, and Jon Niese have been reliable for the past month, while Mike Pelfrey and Hisanori Takahashi have been the exact opposite. Pelfrey has been historically bad, with a WHIP of 3 in his last five starts, and Takahashi, outside of 2 starts against the Yankees, has ranged from mediocre to awful. From what I see, he’s a guy who can’t go through a lineup more than once, A.K.A., a relief pitcher.

As far as hitting goes…well, pretty much everyone seems cold. Angel Pagan has been hitting, but outside of him, no one else is doing anything. Ike Davis was hot in the Giants series, but that was good for nothing. David Wright’s had a handful of hits, as has Reyes, but it seems whenever one guy hits, it’s him and him alone. Solo homers have seemed like all the Mets can muster up.

What do you do here? What I argue is met with controversy, but you’ve got to ride it out. I’ve heard a few names in the trade market: Dan Uggla and Prince Fielder. However, both would command a king’s ransom and are unlikely to be traded, particularly Uggla. Fielder in particular would surely demand Ike Davis-and in my opinion, based on his rookie numbers, there isn’t good reason to make that swap. Fielder’s a much more prolific hitter, but he’s got weight and attitude issues. Ike’s also a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman.

The only way I’d really trade Ike, maybe, is if I could get Dan Haren, who’s easily the most valuable pitcher on the market, probably the most valuable player available through trade since Johan Santana, considering his age and reasonable contract as well as a flawless delivery. He knows how to pitch and I’d LOVE to have him on my team, and would trade anyone in the farm system for him. It seems unlikely, though-Arizona is demanding a ton for him and the Mets frankly aren’t creative enough to make such an acquisition. They might have caught lightning in a bottle when they were able to pull off the Santana deal.

Ted Lilly seems like the guy the Mets are most likely to add, probably a 50-50 shot that it happens. The word today also is that Jeff Francoeur could be traded by Monday, with Jeremy Affeldt of the Giants being a possible target. Makes perfect sense, seeing as Francoeur wants to play every day but is the odd man out in New York, and the Mets need bullpen help. Octavio Dotel is also a possibility.

I will regurgitate again, though, that Mets fans (who are going absolutely insane right now) tend to overreact to everything. Entire lineups can go into slumps-see the Phillies earlier this year. They won’t hit like this for the whole year. And the Mets won’t play this terribly the whole year. On the other hand, they won’t play as well as they did for that stretch through June. It’s always going to be somewhere in between. Right now, they’re in the toughest part of their schedule. Midway through August, it’s going to get much easier. But they can’t fall far behind and have a lot of catching up to do. They need to tread water here, get through it somewhere around .500. At three games above, they can afford to stay around there against tough teams. They head into a huge series with the Dodgers where they have to turn it around. When you’ve just gotten swept by the Diamondbacks, you’re definitely on the brink 95 games in. The Dodgers are reeling, too, and both teams will come in hungry to win.

Jason Bay, he of the Golden Sombrero last night, will sit today, as will Beltran and Barajas (Barajas not so much sitting as it is the best catcher playing over him, though Jerry doesn’t comprehend that yet). Chris Carter will play left, with Francoeur in right.

Keep in mind that who knows, Jason Bay could light up all of a sudden. Imagine if he caught fire!

Let’s go Mets!

Luis Castillo was called up today, and Ruben Tejada was demoted. I don’t have a problem with this move. Castillo will provide much more offense over Tejada (if he’s right, he’ll hit 100 points higher), but is a big downgrade in the defensive department. However, if healthy, Castillo can still play an average second base, and he still turns a good double play.

I might have opted to send down Justin Turner, but he seems adept enough with the glove, and can play second and short like Tejada with a better bat.

So here is your New York Mets starting lineup, FINALLY HEALTHY! (Can’t wait till Johan pitches in front of this lineup)

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Angel Pagan RF
3. David Wright 3B
4. Carlos Beltran CF
5. Ike Davis 1B
6. Jason Bay LF
7. Rod Barajas C
8. Luis Castillo 2B
9. Mike Pelfrey SP

A quick plug-I wish Josh Thole would be first on the depth chart, seeing as with the bats they are providing, Barajas and Blanco might as well be catching instructors. But it seems Thole, after he next catches R.A. Dickey, will be demoted when Oliver Perez returns to the team. Perez seems to be headed to the bullpen…but I’ll be honest…I would rather see him get a chance to start over Takahashi, who has just been ripped all season outside of a few good starts. Maybe if we’re lucky, we won’t have this problem-the Mets will likely still try to convince Ollie to take a minor league assignment.

All things considered, I’d rather bring in a Ted Lilly, someone from the outside.

Let’s go Mets!

No one could anticipate that after getting Carlos Beltran back, the Mets wouldn’t score a run for 24 innings. But every team has peaks and troughs in its baseball season. You’re never as bad as you are at your worst or as good as you are at your best. For a 2-month period, the Mets were the hottest team in baseball, the best over that span. Since then, they’ve been pretty bad. But they aren’t this bad, and many, many Mets fans act like they are that bad.

Here’s the reality: Offense is far more volatile and inconsistent than pitching. Over time it evens out, but there will be times where you can’t score (hey, the Phillies couldn’t score with a healthy lineup for 2 months) and there will be times where an offense will be unstoppable. The Mets remain without Jose Reyes until (it looks like) Monday.

Now, when you put him in a lineup with Angel Pagan, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, three great hitters; Jason Bay, a slumping hitter this year, but a guy with potential to be a big stick in the SIXTH spot; Ike Davis, a solid power bat; and a few role players (Thole, a slap hitter who works counts, and Tejada, who is more in there for defense), you have a lineup that can be among the best in baseball.

This is just what I say to those who say “the Mets need a bat more than pitching.” It comes down to this. In an abstract sense, the skill difference between pitchers is far wider than the difference between hitters. A pitcher with a 2.50 ERA allows 2 runs less per 9 innings than a guy with a 4.50 ERA. But a .300 hitter, over the course of a full season, is only 25 hits better than a .250 hitter, and those can be 25 bloops, warning-track fly balls, whatever. Offense will always come, no matter what. Pitching is what needs to be focused on.

This I have been saying for weeks-Hisanori Takahashi NEEDS to be in the bullpen. He’s not a starting pitcher. Outside of two excellent outings against the Yankees, he’s been below average. He’s given up a lot of big innings, particularly ones that put the Mets in a huge hole early, like last night.

Santana, Dickey, and Niese have been excellent of late, and hopefully Pelfrey will be rested up and ready to continue his trends for April, May, and June. That meaning, the Mets need another starter. I don’t believe in the philosophy that you have your 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 starters. Inherently, this philosophy “accepts” that the bottom of the rotation can be mediocre starters. A World Series caliber team doesn’t accept throwaways in the bottom of the rotation. The Yankees have Phil Hughes and Javier Vazquez down there. The Reds have 5 very good starters. You can never have enough starting pitching.

As such, the Mets need to pull one of the following off the trade market, from most realistic to least: Ted Lilly (Cubs), Brett Myers (Astros), Jake Westbrook (Indians), Roy Oswalt (Astros), or Dan Haren (D-Backs). Lilly and Myers seem like the most likely, as the Mets will wait for the price to come down then make a reasonable trade offer. Amidst the controversy of whether the Mets can add payroll or not, it seems unlikely that they will take on Oswalt’s contract. He will command a lot in the way of prospects, but maybe, just maybe, the Astros will take on a bad Met contract-they have been rumored to be open-minded to this (I think we all know whose contract I’m referring to). The D-Backs are demanding a king’s ransom for Haren, who will be under his team’s control for several more years for a very cheap price. However, no matter the price, I would love to see Haren in a Met uniform. He strikes out a ton of batters, walks very few, and is playing for a terrible team in a small park right now. I think he would thrive in Citi Field.

All in all, as I’ve been saying all along, the Mets and fans need to keep calm. They just need to add an arm.

Today Santana faces the Giants as the Mets try to salvage a game in this series. He faces Jonathan Sanchez.

Let’s go Mets!!!

I was just going to plug tonight’s pitchers and Frenchy being in, but that was before I saw tonight’s lineup.

1. Ruben Tejada SS
2. Jason Bay LF
3. David Wright 3B
4. Carlos Beltran CF
5. Jeff Francoeur RF
6. Ike Davis 1B
7. Rod Barajas C
8. Alex Cora 2B

And another thing I missed, Nick Evans was sent down for Justin Turner, since the Mets are in need of a middle infielder. I won’t bother saying that Reyes should have been DL’d two weeks ago in the first place. Oh wait…

Wow. Talk about a shakeup. Jerry Manuel did say yesterday that he might hit Bay second. At this point, it’s not a terrible idea.

Let’s go Mets!