Pro-government crowds in Iran were extremely low, but the news of the day was arguably the vicious nature of the attacks of government supporters against Mehdi Karroubi’s home and the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz.  Clearly, the Iranian regime is scared of dissent, and running out of friends.

Note: Earlier there was an unconfirmed report of Bassij forces gathering around Mousavi’s home. Those reports remain unconfirmed, and are therefore probably not reliable at this point.

For background, see my previous entry on Qods Day. Check back, as this is a developing story:

For other great liveblogs covering this story, see Enduring America and Josh Shahryar.

Update – 15:40 GMT:

A Facebook site loyal to Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a description of the bloody seige inside the Qoba mosque inside the city of Shiraz.  The mosque was invaded by over 150 plain-clothed thugs, but they were eventually forced out.  Multiple injuries were reported (see pictures below)

Update – 15:29 GMT:

There is an unconfirmed report, via a blogger, that Mousavi’s house is in the process of being surrounded by Bassij (map)

Update – 15:22 GMT:

A source inside Iran (Iran Students Committee) sent me the following email less than an hour ago.

The lack of the participation of the public in the state-run ‘Quds Day’ Marches once again proved that the Iranian regime does not have a popular base among the Iranian people. Despite the fact that widespread advertising was put into this event by the regime, the lack of the participation of the people has brought shame on the regime. Azadi Square was so empty that it was not closed down to cars as it usually is on ‘Quds Day’. Only a few people who were organized by Bassij bases were seen walking on the sidewalks.

One year ago on Quds Day, millions of people came out on the streets to protest to the government; protests that were brutally suppressed with batons, teargas and other things. The Iranian regime has tried in the past year and a half to suffocate the smallest protests and to cause an atmosphere of fear to prevent people from leaving their homes for protests. In this way they want to show that dissident groups are very few in numbers. But the people once again proved on ‘Quds Day’ this year which group they actually belong to and what their numbers truly are.

So far, our correspondents have been unable to get an accurate reading of the size of the pro-government crowd.  Euronews is reporting that there were only “thousands” of government supporters. Their video of the day (source unknown) only shows a small portions of the crowd.  All foreign news sources operating in Iran are under the close scrutiny of the regime, and some of their video is provided to them from state-run media outlets.

As if anticipating the embarrassment for such a small crowd, several state-run media organizations have started to accuse the western press of propaganda for reporting the small size of the crowd.  Tabnak, Mehr News, and Fars News are all running similar stories.

Also, it appears that Karroubi’s news outlet, Saham News, is down and has been replaced by a placeholder, apparently the result of a cyber attack.

Update – 13:15 GMT:

According to a Facebook page loyal to Mousavi:

According to SahamNews moments ago Seyyed Yasser Khomeini, grandson of late Ayatollah Khomeini (founder of Islamic Republic), visited Mehdi Karroubi after the siege on Karroubi’s residence was broken. Seyyed Yaser Khomeini in this meeting after touring the building and seeing the extent of the damages expressed his deep concerns over these brutal actions by Basij and plain-clothes thugs. The grandson of Imam Khomeini who visited Mehdi Karroubi to comfort him strongly condemned these inhuman and barbaric behaviors.

Update – 13:09 GMT:

According to Rahe Sabz, Ayatollah Dastegheyb’s Ghoba Mosque in Shiraz has been attacked by several hundred plain-clothed Basij.  The forces have entered the mosque, disrupted prayer, and clashes are ongoing inside.  According to my colleague Josh Shahryar, the mosque door had been sealed by the government after students had vocalized plans for meeting there.  Ayatollah Ghoba is a staunch supporter of the opposition to the Islamic Republic and president Ahmadinejad.

Update – 01:05 GMT:

The security situation in Tehran is extremely tight. There are reports of walls of security personnel around the major squares and avenues in Tehran.  There are also reports of security personnel intersecting trains and buses, looking for anyone wearing Green.

A much more reliable video of the inside of Mehdi Karroubi’s house can be viewed here.  One can readily see burn marks and bullet holes, as well as other damage.  According to Saham News, a man and his wife were beaten near the scene when his wife took off her hijab and used a cell phone.  The report then claims that the couple was detained by security forces.

There is also this video, which allegedly shows last night’s attack on Karroubi’s house, though it has not yet been verified.

The Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom Seminary School, Karroubi’s own party, and Mir Hossein Mousavi, all condemned the attacks on Karroubi. Apparently, Mousavi was able to reach Karroubi by phone (perhaps a cell phone, as the land lines have been cut) with a pledge to join him inside the house.

Update – 07:44 GMT:

There are multiple new reports that motorcycles have joined the blockade of Mehdi Karroubi’s house.  There are some reports that, once again, Bassij forces are attempting to break into Karroubi’s home.

Many Iranian state-run TV channels are showing the gathering pro-government protests.

Update – 07:39 GMT:

According to Press TV, and other sources, pro-government protesters have started to gather in central locations in Tehran.  Thus far, there is no notable Green Movement presence.

Update – 07:22 GMT:

According to the Green Movement website Rahe Sabz, the internet has been slowed in Iran.  Facebook, Gmail, and other social networking sites are operating very slowly. This is a tactic used by the Islamic Republic in previous protests, as the complex network of information, much of which relies on proxy networks, becomes almost inoperable if the internet is slowed.

Also, pictures taken yesterday of heavy police presence in Tehran have emerged. Especially interesting is the presence of what appears to be female police officers to process female protesters.

Male and Female Police ready for Qods

Update: 07:06 GMT:

(Today is Qods Day, a national holiday in Iran since the Islamic Revolution protesting against the Israeli occupation of Palestine and Jerusalem, as well as other national issues.  Tensions surrounding potential anti-government protests are building, but so too are the tensions surrounding the major side-plot of today’s events.

For the last five days, the home of Mehdi Karroubi, a leading reformer and former presidential candidate, has been surrounded in a total blockade by Bassiji forces, plain-clothed militia unofficially sanctioned by the Iranian government. The Bassij have been the favored tool of Ahmadinejad’s crackdown against his political opposition since last 2009′s failed elections.

There have been some stunning developments.  According to Radio Farda, who gave an interview to Karroubi’s son before the phone lines were cut (longer summary here), and other sources in Iran, last night the crowd around Karroubi’s apartment complex has become violent.  Shots were fired into the home, and warning shots were fired back.  Some Bassij even tried to force Karroubi into the open by lighting the home on fire, but they were beaten back.  Sources also state that there have been several serious injuries, including multiple Bassij and the head of Karroubi’s security, who was taken to the hospital and may still be in a coma.

After the attacks, Mehdi Karroubi gave an interview (via phone) to RasaTV.  According to one source:

Following these events Mehdi Karroubi in an interview with Rasa TV once again announced that he is ready to pay any price and will stand in this path till the end.

Karroubi also once again stressed on attending the Qods Day demonstrations.

Mehdi Karroubi in this phone interview said: “Following the elections many events happened in the country and everyone witnessed the consequences. We also expressed our positions clearly and caringly. But my clear and frank positions regarding country’s issues has not gone well with these guys and [therefore] they plan these events and attacks.”

READ THE LONGER SUMMARY HERE

New reports just in (8 AM, Friday, local time) report that Basijis are once again gathering around Karroubi’s home. Apparently, electrical and phone lines have also been cut. According to Enduring America:

Student Supporters of Karroubi and Mousavi have issued a statement calling for a demonstration of support on Saturday at around 7:30 p.m. local time in front of Karroubi’s residence.

This alleged video has surfaced, showing damage to the Karroubi home after the attacks, though the audio seems to be added on in editing.

Please check back, as this is a developing story.

And, if you were following Qods day last year, you would know that things have changed.  Qods Day was one of the first major holidays hijacked by Iran’s Green Movement, the opposition to the current regime in Iran.  Instead of a message of hate, tens of thousands of protesters chanted pro-democratic slogans, protesting the direction of their own country and the unofficial chant became, “Not Gaza, Not Lebanon, I give my life to Iran!”

Now, once again, Qods day is upon us, and the political situation in Iran is much different, but still extremely tense.  Just this week, reformist political candidate Mehdi Karroubi released a statement, challenging the current regime on electoral fraud and other injustices. Here is an excerpt:

It is lamentable and disheartening to speak of all the faceless and nameless individuals who have paid such a heavy price during this past year. Individuals about whom most of us still remain in the dark and even if any information has been provided, though inadvertently, little attention has been given to their plight and the difficulties they have had to endure….

The elections that took place last June with unprecedented joy and excitement by the public were turned into unimaginable events. Even now, one and a half years later [sic], in August of 2010, no matter where you are you only hear discussion of those who have been imprisoned and those who have been martyred. It is a pity that an election in which the people were demanding the results of their vote turned into this. We witnessed what they [the ruling government] did to our citizens, whether they were well known individuals or ordinary citizens….

Some claim that there has been fraud, while others insist the contrary. We however continue to state that not only was there election fraud, but more importantly this fraud was massive and widespread. In other words, it was not just around one or two million votes, it was extensive and the results of the elections were pre-determined before the vote took place. The results were rigged in order to show that one individual [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] had received 25 million votes, while another [Mir Hossein Mousavi] a few million, and a third [Karroubi] only three hundred thousand votes. They wanted the opposition to be defeated. We have sufficient evidence regarding this matter and given the opportunity we will discuss and clarify all the facts.

READ THE ENTIRE TRANSLATION HERE:

Karroubi went on to say that he was “…bewildered at the extent to which religious individuals lie and deceive, turning their back on the truth and reality. I have been committed to religion, the clergy and the Islamic Republic for many years, always seeking to protect and defend the right of the people and unlike claims by some, I have no regrets and am proud of my behavior and my past…”.  He went on to criticize the treatment of political prisoners, and other government abuses in the last year.

Following this statement, Karroubi released the big bomb: he was planning on attending protests against the Islamic Republic during Qods Day.  As a result, since Sunday Karroubi’s house has been surrounded by Bassiji thugs, a paramilitary force loyal to Ahmadinejad (and the reason why Ahmadinejad wears his windbreaker everywhere, the unofficial uniform of the Bassij).  According to Fars News, a notoriously biased government-run news organization in Iran,  Karroubi is accused of meeting with “seditious” members inside his home, an indication that this gang of pro-government thugs may be keeping Karroubi in a kind of house arrest, at least until Friday, though there is no way to confirm this (check back Saturday).  Today, Karroubi’s son confirmed that he is still under a kind of house arrest, but is planning on meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi and attending the Qods Day rallies.

This is one of several signs that the government of Iran is VERY nervous. Just this past week, Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made statements about how the “overthrowers (Reformists, especially Rafsanjani and the Green movement leaders, ect.) have not been punished yet.” Meanwhile, political infighting within the conservative party in Iran has grown more intense, as has the anti-reformist propaganda campaign (which EA and Dissected News has helped counter), and even the government-run media sources are now admitting that the unemployment rate in Iran may be over 25%.

We have no confirmation of any protests planned by the Green Movement, and Friday is likely to be dominated by pro-government, anti-Israeli, anti-U.S. sentiment, but under the surface the government and its supporters are still very afraid of the Sea of Green.

Anyone who has read Founding Brothers, or any other great read about the men who founded this country, can’t help but be blown away by how different politics were back then.  John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, the Federalists and anti-Federalists, were locked in an epic ideological struggle, the result of which has shaped the entire development of this nation.  At the end of the day, neither Adams nor Jefferson wanted to surrender the rights that the Americans had fought so bravely to secure.  Jefferson believed that the largest threat to these freedoms was a strong national government, and Adams believed that both external and internal threats, combined with the weakness of the early nation, could inevitably lead to the fall of the United States, dissolving the American dream in cataclysm.  Somewhere along the road, the debate became more defined as the tension between liberal interpretation (loose, spirit of the law, pragmatic) and the conservative interpretation (strict, cautionary, individualistic) of the Constitution of the United States.  The Federalists believed that the best way to secure liberty was to ensure strength, security, and prosperity for the people of the United States.  Problems and threats were to be treated pragmatically in order to form a more perfect union.  The anti-Federalists feared the construction of a dragon that would devour itself, a strong centralized government that would replace the King with a bureaucracy and special interests.  Trading big government for security and prosperity was not a risk the anti-Federalists were willing to take.

I could write about how neither the modern Democrats nor the modern Republicans fit the liberal nor conservative label.  After all, it is the “Conservative” party that would like to define marriage, revise the 14th amendment, mandate English as the official language of the United States, and even change the way senators are elected.  Perhaps the most glaring departure from strict interpretation would be the method that congress has used to wage war without a declaration of war by congress, and this is made even more striking when wars are waged preemptively.  On the other hand, proponents of gay marriage are very happy that our founding fathers didn’t define marriage in our founding documents.

Instead, I had a conversation during this past weekend with some friends that reminded me what this debate should be about.  One friend, a social worker, was complaining about the conservatives who wanted to shut down unemployment benefits. She went on to  complain about the callous nature in which people were angry about giving aid to Pakistan in order to help with disaster relief efforts.  She spoke of the human toll of this disaster, and how the racist/Islamaphobic hearts of the world, and this country, were masking the humanity of the poor who were suffering.  It was a heartfelt argument but, as her brother pointed out, one that had no bearing on the issue of whether or not our government should give out “state-mandated charity” without the consent or control of the individual tax payer.  He talked about how he, an entrepreneur himself, wanted to give money to charity, but he still felt that the government should not be involved in mandating the giving of charity.  The merits of objectivism were praised as he explained that the government’s role should be limited to the maintenance of roads, fire and police services, basic law and order, and defense of our borders.  Anything else is the slow encroachment of the government on the rights of individuals.

Who did this guy think he was messing with? I had a pretty well planned argument about how social services, welfare, unemployment benefits, and even foreign aid, were all important parts of a system that strengthens our economy and our national security.  I had the stats and figures rolling in my head, especially about unemployment benefits, so that is where I started.  I was interrupted shortly after explaining how unemployment benefits stimulate the economy, however, by an unexpected argument.

He agreed with me, and he didn’t care.  The government should not be in the business of mandating charity, regardless of its benefits.  He was arguing from an ideological standpoint, one that refused to compromise ideology for pragmatism, and that was all there was to it.  While his politics weren’t Jefferson’s, his principles were.

I suddenly realized that this entire conversation had exposed the fundamental flaws of both the Republicans and the Democrats.  The Democrats argue too often from the heart, a strategy that is dependent on the emotional AND ideological point of view of the audience.  The Republicans too often depart from their ideological standpoint, and too often lie about the objective outcomes of certain policies in order to win on both counts.

The Democrats have become afraid to challenge the structure of their own policies for fear that they will be repealed.  Reforming the liberal agenda is an almost impossible task because the Republicans will use any sign of weakness or problem within a government program (Medicare/Medicaid,  welfare, stimulus, ect.) as a reason to eliminate the program.  On the other hand, and perhaps in attempts to avoid the “bleeding heart” label, Democrats have increasingly shied away from a liberal agenda despite the pragmatic gains such an agenda might derive. For instance, the elephant in the room during Wall Street reform, and healthcare reform, was corporate greed, one that was ignored by Democrats for fear of being called “socialists.”  The liberal voters, on the other hand, are so engrossed in the emotional reasons for their beliefs that they are incapable of even speaking or debating with the opposition.  Therefore, Democratic politicians are increasingly spineless and Democratic voters are increasingly losing their cool with, and their ground to, their conservative counterparts.  The result? Compromise without cooperation, as the Dems give away their progressive agenda in order to stem the loss of blood to the growing anger and discontent.  Just like Al Gore ignored the Clinton legacy in order to avoid the wrath of the Christian Right, the left wing is avoiding their own agenda today in order to escape the (often misplaced) wrath of tea-party anger.

The Republicans, instead of maintaining the ideology of small government and individual rights, have bargained away personal freedom for national security, given away wealth for imperialistic goals, become radical in both their adherence to and opposition of certain aspects of the Constitution, and they have lied about the objective accomplishments of programs like social security, unemployment benefits, and the merits of their own tax cuts.

So the Democrats are weak, and the Republicans are lying and conniving snakes in the grass?  There are reasons why I had a great respect for a 2000 John McCain and a 2007-2008 Barack Obama: pragmatism and honesty.  While coming from different ideological camps, and having different ideas on when government was going too far, both McCain and Obama weren’t afraid to break from the mold, or at least stress different reasons for believing what they believed.

Let’s take Obama. In one of the opening chapters of his book, The Audacity of Hope, he spoke about the need to seek middle ground on perhaps the most divisive wedge issue, abortion, because both sides should recognize that abortion is not healthy for women and families.  He wrote about the need to bridge gaps, and avoid widening them, by working practically to improve the situations of the women having abortions.  In Illinois, Obama was often considered the consummate compromiser, and he has brought some of this into the White House. A prime example was the last minute executive order banning abortion funding from his health care bill (despite the fact that there was no funding for abortion in the bill anyway).  How about the fact that the healthcare bill incorporates many ideas that Republicans have long espoused, the fact that the idea of mandates is one that Mitt Romney takes credit for, or the fact that single payer was never really on the table?  These are all moves that trade idealogical gains for pragmatic gains: classic John Adams.  There are plenty of other examples of Obama’s pragmatic compromises, despite the outcry of the opposition and the accusations that Obama is a “socialist,” or a Muslim, or whatever else they’re calling him now.

However, Pragmatism can often overstep its bounds, and it is up to the strict Constitutionalists to ensure that the freedom on the American people is not impuned. So now let’s look at John McCain.  In 2000, McCain said that he was;

“…like “Luke Skywalker fighting the Death Star,” he would not only defeat Bush but reform a party corrupted by ‘big money’ and, as he later put it, ‘agents of intolerance.’

In other words, the Republican party, according to McCain, had become a place with a mixed agenda, infiltrated by greed and hate.  So what did he do about it?  On substance, John McCain used logic, a cool head, and a lot of economic theory to campaign against George Bush in 2000.  I considered voting for him in the primaries (I regret voting in the Democratic primary instead, an option independent voters have in Massachusetts).  While a conservative in values, he was more moderate, less ideologically inconsistent or reckless, and far smarter than George Bush.  It didn’t surprise me to learn that his people had been in discussions with John Kerry about running on the same ticket in 2004.

It should surprise the supporters of the 2000 McCain to find that his ideologies had changed, as had his tactics, by 2008.  From mis-characterizations or misinformation to outright lies, McCain had entered the business of winning at all costs.  We now have a Republican party that is synonymous with this kind of thinking, and John McCain was the most vocal critic of this approach only 10 years ago, or even more recently.

McCain and Palin ran a campaign that suggested Obama was “palling around” with terrorists, he might not have been born in this country, he might be a Muslim, he had to return large sums of money from Pakistani donors… McCain’s campaign slogan became “Who is the real Barack Obama?” Very Jeffersonian stuff.

Things haven’t changed. Now we have notorious liar, Sarah Palin. She is rapidly becoming the spokesperson for the resurgence of the right wing, and she continues to solidify her position as liar-in-chief of the United States of America.

So, if the Democrats are weak, and the Republicans really are committed to intolerance, misrepresentation of the truth, and demonizing of opposition, then who is having the serious discussions about the future and direction of this nation, and of the world?  Who is making sure our government programs are working?  Who is balancing pragmatic gains with the bigger picture, our freedom.

The American people deserve better than the current ilk of Democrats and Republicans, and they certainly deserve better than those new-fangled libertarians who are really a cross between anarchists and neo-conservatives.  We deserve real media coverage of these issues, less distraction and more progress.  That is something that ALL of our founding fathers would agree on.

Listen to the interview: Andrew Bacevich: U.S. Militarism

Bacevich argues that the continuance of the policies that built American power need to change as they no longer work in the modern world.  The large amount of conflicts and interventions that the U.S. has engaged in since WWII have resulted in limited short term success and even more limited long term success.  The expansion of American power over the last few decades has coincided with the growth of economic disparity, global jihadism, nuclear proliferation, and many other negative events, many of which have at least partially been caused by the unintended consequences of American policy.

Read the Entire Article on Enduring America

Recently, I added a new friend to Facebook.  He was writing some rather poignant ideas on a friend’s Wall about the need to establish peaceful dialog between races and religions, both at home and abroad. I expected to look on his info page and find that he was a devoutly religious man, but what I found was even more interesting. Listed under his “religious beliefs” was the following phrase:

Religion has caused more damage to man kind than any other hobby in the history of mankind.

I was disappointed, but not surprised. Increasingly, many I’ve encountered who are most interested in peaceful coexistence, tolerance, and consistency and integrity in beliefs are disillusioned with the traditional organized religions.  The most famous example of this was Mahatma Gandhi, when he said, “I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ.”  Who could argue with that? From Crusades, to the KKK, to sex abuse scandals, inquisitions, holocausts, and beyond, the white baptismal gowns of the Western religions are spotted with centuries of dirt and blood.

Read the Entire Article Here: Catholic Labs

Early this summer, I took about a month off from blogging.  This period was the first time, in a long time, that anyone has much of a chance of telling me about an important news story in the Middle East that I wasn’t already familiar with.  But I wasn’t completely isolated. So imagine my reaction when I heard the BBC run the following story (paraphrased for effect):

“For the umpteenth day, Turkey and Iran have coordinated artillery strikes on Kurdish militants in Northern Iraq.“

I almost drove off the road.  Turkey, a staunch ally, and Iran, enough said, were waging a joint war inside Iraqi terroriry, apparently with our blessing? And I didn’t know about it?!

Several factors are increasing the tension in Kurdistan. First of all, as the U.S. readies to withdraw from Iraqi combat operations, neighboring nations are scrambling to increase their influence in the partial power vacuum that is sure to follow. Iran is attempting to secure an alliance between major Shiite Muslim parties, while Saudia Arabia attempts to bolster Sunni groups and its own influence. Iran also wants to further secure it’s own borders, its alliance with Syria, and its relationship with Turkey by weakening the Kurds in the north.  This becomes increasingly important as the Israeli-Turkish relationship is further strained over Palestine, especially in the wake of the Israeli raid on an aid flotilla destined for Gaza that resulted in the deaths of 9 civilians this past spring.

Special Coverage: Raid of Gaza Flotilla – Time to Evolve Foreign Policy in the Middle East

In fact, according to Iraqi Foreign Minister Hosham Zebari, an ethnic Kurd, international interference in Iraqi politics is a major reason why a new government has not been formed since March’s elections.

However, a major reason why the war against the Kurds has escalated is that since taking office Barack Obama has placed the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), the major party representing Iranian Kurds,  and the Kurdish Workers Movement (PKK) have been placed on the Terrorist Watch List and American intelligence resources have helped share information with both Turkish and Iranian officials. While some suspected that this was an overture to Iran, it is more likely a move to satisfy Turkey and retain their role as a regional leader.

Because of the nature of the movements of PJAK and the PKK, it is unlikely that their causes have been significantly impacted by this combined shelling, though reports are that civilian casualties are mounting in northern Iraq.

(See the video interview of members of a Kurdish militant groups below)

This episode is just another example of how complex these region of the Middle East really is. The United States is stuck between Iran and Israel, with Turkey in the middle, and the Saudis pushing from a third angle, all while waging two wars and attempting to navigate the tensions of a Pakistani-Indian conflict playing out in Afghanistan. Thus far, Barack Obama has been unwilling to come out and endorse a single player.  Tensions are mounting between Israel and Turkey,  Obama and Netanyahu, Iran and the rest of the world.

It seems that the Kurds are in the crossfire, and unless PKK leaders agree to a separate peace with Turkey, they are unlikely to be relied on by the United States as part of the solution.

Twitter members joined petitions, many wrote letters to Japanese officials, and several of us wrote blog posts (and Lissnup and others even took the time to translate some of the letters into French).  Perhaps the most effective movement, however, was that of my colleagues in the Washington D.C., Mission Free Iran,  who protested often in front of the Japanese embassy.

These efforts succeeded. Jamal Saberi has been released, and he will no longer face deportation. Efforts are now being made to ensure that he is given official refugee status.

Thanks need to be given for this momentous victory. According to Mission Free Iran, they include:

@JoanneMichele, who traveled for hours weekend after weekend to attend our incessant protests in front of the Japanese Embassy; @MrZand, who could always be counted on, week after week, to stand in front of Japan and condemn their actions, and who also took beautiful photographs of our demonstrations; @Shhh28 and @KevScottDC, who made unforgettable cameo appearances at our demonstrations; Majid Azari and Saeed Salehinia, who never, ever, left us standing alone on Massachusetts Avenue; a certain person who shall remain nameless but who always made sure that we had plenty of signs for our demonstrations; and several other people who won’t be mentioned for security reasons, but who should know that they are recognized. @Shariatmadari provided strong graphics to represent our demands, both in the flesh and online. And the entire Facebook and Twitter communities who supported Mission Free Iran’s efforts on behalf of Jamal Saberi, spread the word about his case, and encouraged the world to write letters on his behalf.

Welcome back, Jamal.  This episode should stand as an example of how much online activism, and a lot of hard work, can really accomplish.

UPDATE 17:19 GMT: According to Enduring America:  ABC and Mehr news are now reporting that a handmade explosive device was exploded on Pasteur Street in Hamedan, some distance from Ahmadinejad’s car. No injuries were reported.

So now the focus of the story changes significantly. Khabar Online, a conservative and state-licensed news agency, was the first organization to report this news story. Apparently, this may be interpreted as another jab at Ahmadinejad from the conservatives. Khabar Online has been consistently following the news stories about prominent Iranian Principalist lawmaker Ali Mottahari and his growing discontent with the Ahmadinejad administration.

In other words, Khabar Online has become an organization that is a mouthpiece for conservatives critical of Ahmadinejad. This may be an example of just how far these disgruntled conservatives will go to embarrass Ahmadinejad.

Stay tuned for more on this angle of the story.

UPDATE 15:38 GMT: Al Arabiya television is reporting that several people were injured and the alleged attacked was immediately arrested following an attack where an explosive device (either a grenade or a celebratory firecracker) hit a car carrying journalists and Presidential staff.

15:22 GMT:

This morning Khabar Online, a state controlled media outlet, reported that Ahmadinejad’s convoy in Hamedan (western Iran) had been attacked by a grenade as it passed through the town between the airport and a location where he was supposed to be giving a speech. Shortly thereafter, at approximately 09:00 GMT, Dubai based Al Arabiya television labeled the attack an assassination attempt and mentioned that this was confirmed by Ahmadinejad’s office.

According to Enduring America, shortly thereafter these reports were softened by the Iranian state-run press:

UPDATE 0925 GMT: Press TV has broken its silence: ”An informed source in Iran’s presidential office has rejected as false the reports of grenade attack on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad”, denying the claims of “foreign news sources”. (There is no reference to Khabar Online, which has carried the story in Iran. The reformist Parleman News is also running Khabar’s account, as is the conservative Aftab News.)

UPDATE 1015 GMT: Fars News has now recognised the incident, albeit as the explosion of a “homemade firecracker” as crowds welcomed Ahmaidinejad.

According to the BBC World Radio, at one point the reports were that this was some sort of flashbang grenade.

There is a great deal of confusion about the validity of these reports. There are also unconfirmed reports of injuries in the crowd. Foreign journalists are banned from reporting, and all other news agencies are state controlled, so once the government decides how they will spin a particular news story it becomes very unlikely that independent news will emerge from the media.

So what do we know?

Hamedan is located about 250 miles southwest of Iran. It is not known as a location that is particularly hostile to Ahmadinejad, nor is it a home base for terrorist organizations. Jundollah, a Sunni-Muslim group responsible for several terrorist attacks in Iran, is largely located in southeastern Iran. It is unlikely that their network extends this far west, as the majority of their support is among the growing population of refugees from the war in Pakistan and Afghanistan. PMOI (the People’s Mujahideen of Iran) claims that it has ceased its military campaign against Iran since 2001, and they have actually been removed from the Terrorist Watch List in Europe in the last year.  The Kurdish groups, including the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK) and the PKK are both both possible suspects, as their conflict with Iran has been growing in intensity over the last several months and they are located in the west, but they are not known to have a heavy presence in Hamedan.

However, all of these groups are (or were) professional organizations with long histories of successful attacks. It is unlikely that any of their work could be confused with a “firecracker.” Also, in the past when any of these groups do launch an attack, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) usually takes the attack as an opportunity to accuse the United States and Britain of being behind the attack.

Media Spin?

Initial reports from the state-run media sources inside Iran are often more accurate in their initial reports and less accurate as the government leaders decide how they want to spin the news. Recently, the IRI news agencies carried a full statement, a fatwa issued by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and then later pulled the statement off of their website as some inside the government considered the statement a tactical error. This incident showed the confusion inside the government on how to best portray unity and strength, but it also provides us an example on how news coverage and media spin converge inside the Islamic Republic.

Conclusion:

News on the ground is unreliable at the moment. Hamedan has not been a hotbed of activity, and as a result non-official news isn’t spreading as fast as it would in Tehran or other major cities in northern Iran. As of now, however, it is unlikely that a major terrorist organization has launched an attack against Ahmadinejad. It is still possible that the economic dissatisfaction has inspired an amateurish attack.

We will keep you posted as news comes in.