How to Make It Matter-New Limited gave SANZAR about US$440 million for five years of broadcasting. Assuming that $100 million was for the Lions tour and June tests and only 40% of the remainder was for the Tri/Four Nations (with 60% for Super Rugby), they pay about $30 million a year for the southern hemisphere’s international tournament. Those numbers may be off, but suffice to make a point. What if $1 million was taken off the top of every nation’s take and put into a winner’s pot? In other words, South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand would all receive $9 million, but the winner would take an additional $3 million. For the All Blacks, that would be a big boost. An extra few million means a lot of ITM Cup salaries, club level improvements, or a couple of marquee players. Likely South Africa and Australia would be against it, given the infrequency of their victories, but it would make it far less likely that sub par teams would be named as is occurring this year.

South Africa’s Tactics-The media has frequently pointed out that Peter de Villiers decision to rest “injured” players is very similar to those of Jake White. There is one massive difference that is being missed. In 2007 White declared his resting policy AFTER two home games, one of which was lost to the All Blacks. White could see the writing on the wall. He knew he had little chance of winning an abbreviated tournament with a home loss, so he threw in the towel. Now it may have been that this was a preconceived plan, but it certainly was not announced until after the loss to the All Blacks. It appeared that he took a wait and see approach. If the Tri Nations title looked possible, he’d give it a go. If not, then rest his players. De Villiers, on the other hand, is making the decision before playing a game. Sacrificing a half-lost tournament is different than sacrificing a not started tournament.

Australia’s Chance-Australia last won the Tri-Nations in 2001. In other words, Quade Cooper was thirteen and settling into Australia after a move from New Zealand the last time his squad won the tournament. Robbie Deans has to want to turn that around. He now has a chance. If South Africa are as bad as their lineup projects, it is not impossible to see the Australians and Kiwis both sweeping them. If that happens, Australia would only need to split with the All Blacks to have a shot. Such a scenario would not lead to a Bledisloe Cup, but would leave the tournament winners down to point differential.

All Blacks Selection-Before the team’s are named, here are a few scenarios that I can see coming to pass. I would call them possibilities more than probabilities. (A) I can see John Afoa in the Tri-Nations squad as the 3rd hooker. The coaches talked about it last year. If Afoa is in that place then they can carry five props if they, like most viewers, still can’t figure out who to leave out between Afoa, Ben Franks, and Wyatt Crockett. Also, Hika Elliot will get far more game time for Hawke’s Bay then with the national squad. He’ll be more game fit for the World Cup, where the Afoa experiment is more risky due to substitution rules. (B) Jarrad Hoeata is likely to be in the squad. With Anthony Boric out, Hoeata becomes an interesting option. They can give him a go and if it doesn’t work Boric will just take back the spot. If it does work, then they can use him for both lock and flanker cover, and bring in a specialist seven. That second scenario is unlikely, because I doubt that either Adam Thompson or Liam Messam will be left out on current form. Also, Hoeata is certainly the fifth best lock, with Boric, Ali Williams, Brad Thorn, and Sam Whitelock preferred options. Still, Boric’s injury allows the selectors to try Hoeata out in a low pressure scenario. They can include him as “injury cover” and if they drop him it won’t be the confidence shattering scenario it would be otherwise. (C) Brendon Leonard may be a surprise name read on Sunday. Given that individuals like Stephen Donald and Jamie Macintosh did not get a call to camp, Leonard is not there just to make up numbers. Maybe some younger guys like Ben Afeaki are there mostly for the experience, but there is no need to do that with Leonard. He must have a real shot to make the team. With Jimmy Cowan and Piri Weepu the coaching staff have a lot of things from defense, to tactical kicking, to general rugby intelligence. What they don’t have is that “sniping” halfback who will gain meters around the ruck. Currently, Leonard and Alby Matthewson are the two that fit that mold. The selectors, based on their non-selection of Matthewson so often, must not find the Aucklander to be a real option. If they want their third halfback to be a runner, they will go with Leonard. (D) Either Cory Jane or Joe Rokocoko will make the squad. Speed is one thing, but experience is vital in the back three. If Mils Muliaina is not on the paddock you want another older head at the back, directing the counter attack. Jane and Roks understand Wayne Smith’s system and they might take that knowledge over flashier speed or stats.

Now the Rankings!

4-Blues-The Blues are just a stupid team. There is no other way to say it. How does Jared Payne kick that chip kick in his own 22? How does Stephen Brett kick directly into touch? Why did the ball ever go to Quade Cooper? How many minutes of running sideways must tick by before someone straightens? And why, why, why did Rene Ranger not start that game? It was never going to be won on goal kicking! Mental mistakes just killed this team, and it started with Pat Lam. Lam should have zero shot at higher honors, because he has yet to clearly out coach another team. The Blues game plan almost always lacks direction. That means it is poorly crafted or the players don’t follow it, but either way it reflects poorly on the coach.

3-Stormers-One almost feels badly for the Stormers. They are a very good side that got hit by a historically good side. Just pancaked. While many cried foul over the Schalk Brits scenario (for good reason) it actually blew up in their faces. It was not surprising to see them struggle at the break down when they had a hooker trying to be a fetcher. Questions also have to be asked about Andries Bekker. He always looks so good in Super Rugby. Then, when the finals come around he wilts. No wonder he can’t really crack the Springbok set up. He doesn’t handle pressure well. His height is a huge advantage against lower level players, but the world’s best aren’t over awed by it. The Stormers may be the best team in the world at nursing a six point lead. As soon, as they threw an intercept to Sean Maitland that strength was no longer any good.

2-Reds-Quade Cooper makes this team. No other way around it. He is just spectacular. The Blues error rate was helpful for them but they helped force the errors. The Reds’ forward pack is a complete mystery. Very few of those players are easy to point out as exemplary, but together they are very effective. This weekend they will need to be at their defensive best. They can’t rely on Rod Davies to make the difference again, but the Crusaders wingers can track him down. The mismatch they will most have to watch is Ben Tapuai against Sonny Bill Williams. The midfield is not a strength for the Reds and they will have the most dominant player in rugby running right at that channel.

1-Crusaders-What can be said about this squad that hasn’t already been said? They played perhaps the most impressive semi-final in the history of Super Rugby. All cylinders were clicking. Most amazing was their energy after a long week of travel. The Franks brothers talk so much about recovery and professionalism. Their attention to detail is obvious in their energy levels on the field. Sam Whitelock and Brad Thorn look like their injuries were actually perfectly timed to get them refreshed for these games. While much of the talk going into this game is on Dan Carter versus Quade Cooper, the real question for me is Cooper vs. Tom Marshall. Cooper often lurks at the back and does the full back kicking duties. Marshall must not be burned in those exchanges. Expect to see Carter drop back a little more quickly than usual.

6-Sharks-The Sharks were living on borrowed time after their shock of the Bulls. They always were going to be in trouble against the Crusaders. Their game was based on physicality, particularly with the large loose forward trio they selected. The problem was that all those big boys tend to be a bit slower and bit less aerobically fit than their Crusader counterparts. The travel, and early injury to Willem Alberts, exasperated the disparity in fitness. John Plumtree did well to spot the Crusaders vulnerability to the counter ruck, but that was just too easy of a problem to fix for the Red and Blacks. Finally, Freddie Michalak never added to the Sharks what he has been able to add to France in the past. His kicking game was good, but he never really threatened to break the defense open.

5-Waratahs-It is reasonable to suggest that the Waratahs laid the bigger egg on the weekend, considering that they did not travel nearly as far nor play a team nearly as good. The main difference in the Sharks and Tahs is Kurtley Beale. Beale has been outstanding this year, pushing for the title of the world’s best fullback. He makes the Waratahs so much more interesting as a squad. Mark Ella has been suggesting that a coaching change may be due and he is right. The Waratahs did take a step backwards this year. The expanded playoff scenario makes it easy to forget that the Sharks and Waratahs finished fifth and sixth. Last year, they would both have been teams that squandered opportunities to make the playoffs. The Tahs have gone from a tight final in 2008 to fifth place, easy beats in the Qualifier in 2011.

4-Crusaders-Certainly if any team is the right team to win in Cape Town, it is the Crusaders. They showed good resolve on the weekend. Sonny Bill Williams is so much more dangerous when he attacks the line with gusto. When teams have to guess on the off load pass, not assume it will be there, it is more effective. Sean Maitland was also significant in his return. Years ago when he entered Super Rugby, close to the same time as Zac Guildford, I thought Guildford was the much better player. I no longer believe that. Maitland uses his speed selectively to fool defenders. He also is stronger on the ball. Guildford is the best kick chaser in the world, but doesn’t create like his wing mate. Carter will be glad that his kicking wasn’t the difference last week, and needs to pick up the pace before October.

3-Reds-In this paragraph I will explain why I believe the Reds will lose this weekend. The Reds have been hanging on by threads for a month now. The Crusaders and Blues both did everything but beat them in Brisbane. Quade Cooper and Will Genia are great regular season players, but have yet to show they will shine when the spotlight gets hotter. The Blues forward pack is far more proficient at set pieces. Most of all, the Reds just haven’t shown the substance that one expects out of a team that will win a championship. They score a lot of points, but they don’t like an arm wrestle. The Crusaders showed their weakness in the tight game, until Stu Dickinson and the world’s worst assistant referees gifted them the game. The luck will run out this weekend.

2-Blues-The Blues are a funny bunch this year. They looked dead in the water three weeks ago. The loss in Timaru gave them some confidence, however, and things started to click. The Highlanders win was expected but important. Last week they showed a physical edge that was easy to spot. Jerome Kaino is continuing to show that he is New Zealand’s current hard man. He is almost unrecognizable from the guy that just four years ago was light years from All Black selection. His hits give the Blues their emotional center and tone. Anthony Boric was incredible and will be greatly missed. His loss, however, is compensated for by the regain of form for Ali Williams. Ali is back and flying high. One player who got overlooked last week was Benson Stanley. Stanley is now playing one spot out of the position that got him his test debut last year, but still is solid. He was brilliant in defusing the Waratah attack last week. The Blues will not win by much in Brisbane, but they will edge them out.

1-Stormers-The Stormers are top of the log here for one reason: home field advantage. It is just too hard to make a second trip to South Africa in a season. To be fair to the Stormers, it is hardly as if they were gifted the hosting rights. They earned it by a steady season of strong defense. The midfield will need to watch Sonny Bill very closely this weekend. They will not always succeed, but if they can frustrated SBW they will have done most of the job. He hasn’t seen too much adversity in rugby yet. He showed last week that he cracks a bit if heckled. Don’t be surprised to see Schalk Burger try to get under his skin very quickly. If the Blues do win the other Semifinal, the Stormers will get to host a very winnable final.

The vast distances that are required, as well as the altitude for some teams in South Africa, make it a really great model to study home-ground advantage. In fact, I’d go so far as to say it’s unique in this regard, in that it has extreme travel (10 time zones a trip) and large changes in altitude (0m to 1600m) on a weekly basis.

It makes for fascinating reading, and there’s some great stats in there for you number-crunchers out there.

Part I here.
Part II here.

The Importance of Depth-Coming into the season everyone said depth would matter, but that proved more true than I initially thought. Three extra games doesn’t sound like so much, but another month of professional rugby is a lot. The Highlanders were the best example of the grind of the season. In previous incarnations of Super Rugby, the Highlanders would have been strong contenders for a playoff spot. They lacked the depth to hold out a full 16 games. Coaching a long season is something that many of these coaches are unfamiliar with. Perhaps the Reds performed so well because of Ewan McKenzie’s time with Stade Francais. He knows how to keep a squad fresh over the killer 26 week Top 14 and that experience surely gave him an advantage.

The Strength of New Zealand Rugby-It is too easy to look at the top teams on the table. When you look at the average competition points per conference, it is clear that New Zealand was the strongest conference. The Aussies had 38.8 points per team, South Africans had 48.6, and the Kiwis 49.6. One should remember that the derbies make little difference in this stat, because it is a zero sum gain within the conference. So, the Australians clearly performed poorly against foreign opposition. Their record was in fact 17-22-1 against foreign sides. The attrition of the New Zealand Conference clearly hurt the Blues and Crusaders. Replace their four games against the Hurricanes and Chiefs with games against the Rebels, Brumbies, Lions, and Cheetahs and they would have finished higher on the table.

Referee Trouble-The refereeing has been shocking in this year’s competition. Actually, the assistant refereeing has been the real problem. Knock-ons and forward passes are now common place. Sometimes one wonders if American Football is being played. The judiciary has also seen some imbalanced decisions. Cards have been given or not given with startling inaccuracy. The IRB better hope this turns around by World Cup time. Also, why can’t Australia produce one decent referee?

Flankers Matter-The breakdown has been a key area, as always. With referees lightening up on defensive players in the ruck more opportunities for turn overs have come up. Youngsters like Matt Todd and Luke Braid have been influential. The Reds have shown it is imperative to have a second player timing their entry into the ruck to get over the ball. Fascinatingly, some of the usual suspects like Richie McCaw, Heinrich Brussow, and David Pocock have spent a lot of time out injured.

Goal Kicking-Frankly, South Africa has it and New Zealand does not. The goal kicking, particularly from the Highlanders, has fallen flat in Aotearoa. Meanwhile the likes of Morne Steyn and Peter Grant have been important for their teams. As the World Cup looms some prominent kickers (i.e. Dan Carter) will want to make sure that they dust up on their penalties and conversions.

South African Feline Growth-The South Africans have long had two helpless cats in the Cheetahs and Lions. Both have taken big steps ahead this season. With the Chiefs and Hurricanes faltering, South Africa may be a better overall conference next year than New Zealand. Both South African sides are making moves by playing an attacking style of rugby, which is refreshing to see.

Get Your House in Order!-Two rather proud franchises with winning histories, the Brumbies and Hurricanes, saw their seasons collapse due to internal issues. It will be interesting to see how Jake White goes next season. Certainly he can learn from Mark Hammett that one comes down fast and hard on a strong player culture at one’s own risk. The fact that Hammett is still in control and Andy Friend is on a Gold Coast beach somewhere shows just how poorly ran Canberra’s team is.

Parity Increasing-No one likes a competition with no suspense. Super Rugby has had a weakness in that only four teams have ever won the title, and only two since 2004. Competition seems to be getting tighter, however. This year’s top six feature two teams not in the top six last year. With the Bulls out, there is a 2/3 chance that a team who has never won will take home the title. The increased derbies have also increased the feeling that anything could happen any week.

Before we go to the rankings, note that the number in parentheses is last week’s ranking, even though there was no column last week. I still ranked the teams before Week 18 began and those rankings are below.

This Week’s Ranking (Last Week’s Ranking)

15 (15)-Rebels-At the end of the season it is clear that Rebels were not only wooden spoon winners, but they are significantly off the pace of the entire rest of the competition. Still, there are some positives for them to build on for next year. They are in no worse a position than the Force after their first season.

14 (14)-Brumbies-Matt Giteau’s Super Rugby career ended with him nailing a penalty in a game that was long ago over in a season that was long ago over. Somewhat appropriate for a player that never won as much as his talent suggests he should have.

13 (13)-Lions-The Lions need to get serious. Talk in South Africa is that the Kings will play in the 2013 tournament, even if that is at the expense of someone else. The Cheetahs improvement makes clear there is only one someone else right now.

12 (12)-Force-Many questions this off season for the Force. They need to replace James O’Connor and David Smith and quickly. Also, how long does Nathan Sharpe have left?

11 (10)-Hurricanes-The Canes have made a massive gamble. If they win next year they will be proven right, but if not the fans will not be happy. If Cruden, Jane, Weepu, and Gear decide to split town because of this year it might not take that long for fans to turn.

10 (9)-Chiefs-The Chiefs season was encapsulated in their performance against the Reds. Every chance to win but defensive lapses and errors ruined their hopes. The offense that usually wows was anemic this last year. They were eleventh in scoring.

9 (11)-Cheetahs-When the schedule came out, Cheetahs hosting the Stormers sounded like a real stinker of a closer. It turned out to be a thrilling and important game, with 78 points scored. That shows just how far the Cheetahs have come.

8 (8)-Highlanders-Jamie Joseph has done step one, regain respectability. Now they need to attract enough good players that they can make noise next year.

7 (4)-Bulls-What a difference a week can make. The Bulls looked sure to be headed to another run to the Final. Even more shocking is that this was the final game for Matfield and Botha.

6 (7)-Sharks-Enjoy your win against the Bulls, it is likely the last you will have this year.

5 (6)-Waratahs-They need to show real depth to overcome their injuries. Their earlier performance against the Blues will not give them tons of hope.

4 (2)-Crusaders-Why the drop for the Crusaders? The draw has gone against them. Every road to the title for them goes through Cape Town, then back to Australia or New Zealand. Too much travel for them to overcome.

3 (5)-Blues-The Blues, on the other hand, got all the best out of the draw of the finals. They get a weakened Waratahs and then a likely semifinal in Brisbane, where they scored a lot of points. Their overall path is much easier than the Crusaders, despite not winning the conference.

2 (3)-Stormers-They now await their semifinal. One thing’s for sure, they will be cheering for the Reds to lose. A home final would be gold for them.

1 (1)-Reds-How will the Reds fare in the finals? They have been precariously close to defeat often in the last month and a half. That means they know how to win close ones. Or that they are due for their luck to run out.

Finally, here is a chart of the rankings over the 18 weeks of competition.

This Week’s Ranking (Last Week’s Ranking)

15 (14)-Rebels-Danny Cipriani is a really difficult player for the Rebels. It seems that he has been a headache since day one. On the other hand, where would they be without his ability as a kicker?

14 (13)-Lions-It is really hard to come up with something substantive to say about the Lions for 17 weeks.

13 (15)-Brumbies-Teams will be watching tape of the Brumbies this post season. Why? The Reds average 3.25 tries per game this year against teams other than the Brumbies. They scored one in each of their Brumbies games. The only thing the Brumbies have done right all year is their defense against Cooper and Co.

12 (12)-Force-The Force are Kiwi killers. They beat the Highlanders, drew with the Blues, and scared the Canes. Most impressively, they are a bogey team for the Crusaders.

11 (9)-Cheetahs-The Cheetahs have nothing to be ashamed of after a tough fought losses to the Bulls and Sharks.

10 (11)-Hurricanes-Ma’a Nonu has been shown the door. If I’m a fan, I do the same to my season tickets. Hammett can say what he wants about yellow cards, but if (read:when) Nonu carves the Canes up in a Chiefs jersey Hammett should get hammered by fans and the media.

9 (10)-Chiefs-If the Chiefs could ever just put a full season together it would be incredible entertainment. Their futility this season, however, has given Messam the kind of platform to impress that Sergio Parisse gets with a bad Italy team.

8 (7)-Highlanders-They…um…really…you see…SIGH.

7 (8)-Waratahs-Blues and Crusaders fans need to start cheering for the Waratahs. Their appearance in the playoffs will eliminate a potential trip to Africa.

6 (6)-Sharks-A loss to the Cheetahs would have been expected as part of a late season flame out. There is still a chance that will happen against the Lions this week, but most likely the final game against the Bulls will be a play in game.

5 (4)-Blues-Now that the losses are coming in it becomes clear just how dominant the Blues were early on. They still lead the New Zealand conference and sit third overall after this free fall.

4 (5)-Bulls-Australasian teams will be praying that the Bulls have to travel for a play-off game. They have so much momentum now that only some jet lag will slow them down.

3 (2)-Crusaders-If they are serious about a title they MUST beat the Blues this week. It is imperative not only for the their place on the table and ability to host games, but also for their confidence.

2 (3)-Stormers-If the Stormers miss out on the bye they have nothing but their poor offense to blame for it. Bonus points matter.

1 (1)-Reds-Losses to the Hurricanes and Brumbies suggest that this team can be guilty of getting distracted. Still, a semi-final won’t exactly sneak up on them.

The other thing I noticed, however, is that many of the jerseys just seemed off. For a minute, I could not put my finger on what was bothering me. Then it hit me. The logos! Right smack dab in the middle of the jersey!

Now most Americans wouldn’t think much of the look. We are used to a logo or word mark sitting right around the chest in the middle of the jersey. As a rugby fan, however, I just didn’t feel it looked right. Just a quick scan through my memory reveals one team that wore a similar look (i.e. a large logo in the middle of the jersey) and that team again came from the USA. Almost universally, rugby teams, and most soccer teams, stick with a small crest in the corner of the uniform.

Somewhat immediately my mind wandered to the issue of sponsors. Non-American sports leagues tend to have far more sponsorship and advertising on the jersey than the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA. All four those leagues avoid such things like the plague. History suggests the American audience, ironically, just won’t accept that sort of blatant capitalism. This leads to a chicken and egg question. Do non-USA teams tolerate advertising better because it fits better on a jersey with only a small crest or do non-USA teams use small crests in a corner to make room for ads? Certainly as an American fan I find the state of advertising in rugby distracting, ugly, and tacky. Ospreys tend to look like NASCAR drivers. It also makes the advertisement free Rugby World Cup a favorite tournament of mine aesthetically.

This all got me to thinking. What would it look like if some of the international sides went with an American style jersey and ditched the ads. I’ve worked up a few below. Some I like, some I don’t. My guess is many rugby people will not like them because they just don’t feel right. Still, its an interesting experiment. (Please excuse my poor photoshop skills.)

Injuries Begin-Injuries are beginning to have an effect on the World Cup. Argentina has been effected significantly by the loss of Juan Martin Hernandez. Hernandez has developed a bad habit of disappearing when needed by his national team, so they have had to learn to deal without him. That said, his absence still builds massive pressure on Felipe Contepomi. At 34 he is close to the end of his career. He showed good energy and decision making last June, but his body must be sore after games. Georgia, England, Scotland, and Romania are hardly the pool you want attacking a 34 year old fly half.
South Africa look like they will not have Juan Smith available. Smith is one of those players whose importance is understood more when he is absent then present. He has a lot of heart and makes a lot of tackles. His muscle allows Schalk Burger to steal possession and Pierre Spies to run free. The breakdown is shaping to be a very difficult area in this year’s tournament and South Africa will need some experience to go with their large young loose forwards.
New Zealand is looking carefully at Israel Dagg and Isaia Toeava. Likely one or both will be back in time. If not, Mils Muliaina and Cory Jane are more than capable at full back and the wings stocks are not lacking.
Rocky Elsom will be a fascinating question mark for Australia. Elsom should be back in plenty of time for the tournament, but his ankle seems to be one of those injuries, like Toeava’s hip, that just will not clear up like it is supposed to. Even if Elsom makes a return, he will have at most five tests to get back up to speed after a long lay off. If he is unavailable the Wallabies loose both his talent and leadership. Who captains this side if he is gone? If it isn’t Giteau, how will he respond to Deans overlooking him again?

How will New Zealand hold up?-I’m excited that my wife and I will be among those traveling to this year’s tournament. Still, we are a little nervous. We’ve had to move some plans for Christchurch. Generally, we are excited, but the bad press from travel folks is concerning. Will the infrastructure hold up to the flood of visitors? If, God forbid, the All Blacks fall out of the tournament early, will the national mood ruin the festival? Furthermore, as a frequent watcher of ITM Cup rugby and a ticket holder of lawn seat for a game in Napier, I’m a little concerned about rain. Everyone is hoping the tournament will be a smashing success, and those in charge seem to be competent. Still, this could go very bad very fast. The NZRU also will be concerned about unsold tickets.

Fiji-The situation with Fiji is a total mess. Fiji understandably wants to field their best side. The IRB and fans also would like to see this happen. On the other hand, no one can blame New Zealand officials for suggesting that democracy for the Fijian people is more important than some footy games. Nobody can really give ground here.
The most damaging thing for Fiji will be if Isa Nacewa again skips out. Nacewa has legitimate reasons to be bitter about his test career, but in the end he is a fabulous player. Skipping the World Cup, in New Zealand no less, would be missing out on an incredible experience for him and the fans. His presence would greatly reshape the look of that pool.

Minnow Power-The IRB would like nothing more than for the minnows to continue to have a strong role in the World Cup. Who is likely to play a big role this time around? Look for Japan to make some noise. John Kirwan seems to really know how to coach. The pool is set up for Japan to win two games and automatically qualify for 2015. Either Samoa or Fiji could (are likely?) to knock Wales out at the pool stage. Wales have suffered upsets to both in the past. One more to look for: Georgia. Scotland and Argentina are both guilty of boring, forward dominated rugby at times. If they play that game, with a weakened squad, against Georgia they could find themselves in a real dog fight. Argentina ends their pool play with Georgia. If they are already out of contention and loose focus then that game could be a famous day in Tiblisi. One final surprise match might be Italy’s with USA. If they look ahead to their game with Ireland the Americans could push them closer than they want.

Good Games Below the Radar-Looking at the schedule a couple of games should be great contests, even if they feature less than stellar sides. Japan v. Canada in Napier is one. They played to a controversial draw last time around and will need this game if either wants automatic qualification for the next RWC. Georgia v. Romania will be a bit of a grudge match, though likely boring as a spectacle. The standard of play should be higher with USA v. Russia. The two nations don’t have much rugby history, but there is more than enough other history to give that one some sizzle.

Predictions-Rugby World Cup predictions seem to be rather useless. England, for example, looked hopelessly lost two weeks into the 2007 tournament before managing their way to the final. Still, the Tri Nations tests are the only significant games left before the tournament starts. Teams will not show much in the warm up tests, so we know about as much as we will before kick off. Here are my predictions:

Teams to Qualify for 2015: Japan, Argentina, Italy, Wales
Japan is well coached and can boast better preparation than the others in its pool. Argentina will be tough, but not have the fire power to beat Scotland or England. Italy might run Ireland close, but they no longer have the element of surprise. Wales has shown a propensity to wilt in World Cups. The recall of Gavin Henson smacks of a decision by a coach desperate for attacking talent.

Losing Quarter Finalists: France, Scotland, Samoa, South Africa
France is a mess. They will make it out of the pools but likely will see an English team to whom they tend to lose. Scotland will outlast Argentina, but have little else to hope for. Samoa has enough momentum and talent that they can definitely make the quarters. South Africa? Yep. I suspect one upset in the knock out rounds and I’m picking Ireland over South Africa. In recent times the Irish have gotten the upper hand. South Africa’s age will show and Johnny Sexton will out duel Morne Steyn.

Fourth Place: Ireland
The Irish have a nice mix of experience and youth. Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell are still world class players and leaders. Johnny Sexton is the best fly half in Europe and Sean O’Brien is a super star in the making. Throw in the likes of Jamie Heaslip and this will be a tough side. They will beat the teams they should beat, lose to Australia in the pools, and then upset the Boks.

Third Place: Australia
Many see Australia in the final. The problem is the draw. Australia will likely have England at the semi-final stage. Australia have greatly struggled with England in recent times. They lost the ’07 Quarter Final and twice in 2010. The English now have backs that can keep pace with Aussie and their forward pack dominates. Australia would likely beat any team except two, and those two will be in the Final.

Runners Up: England
I really don’t want to make this pick, but I can’t see it any other way. They will easily win their pool. They will meet two squads in the knock out rounds they have owned in recent times: France and Australia. They will then be outclassed in the Final, but they will be happy to appear a third consecutive time.

Champions: New Zealand
New Zealand want to avoid three teams in the knock out stages: Australia, South Africa, and France. They are the only three teams that have ever beaten New Zealand at the World Cup. If the Kiwis can go through without playing any of them, they likely will win. That is my prediction. They cannot play any of those teams in the Quarters. If they do have an all northern hemisphere run through the finals series (i.e. Scotland, Ireland, England) they won’t even break a sweat on their way to the title.

Enough complaints, on to the rankings!

This Week’s Ranking (Last Week’s Ranking)

15 (15)-Brumbies-Not only are the Brumbies bad, they’re also boring. Bad combination for ticket sales.

14 (13)-Rebels-Typically the rankings do not change over a bye week, but the reality of the table forces a change here.

13 (14)-Lions-The Lions now have a bit of momentum. It will be interesting to see if that can carry over to next year.

12 (11)-Force-Force lose to the Hurricanes, they fall below them in the rankings.

11 (12)-Hurricanes-It is never good when you have to deflect the kinds of rumors the Canes are deflecting. Hore and Hammett can do their best buddies song and dance all day, but surely that much smoke comes with some sort of fire.

10 (10)-Chiefs-The Chiefs have a huge role left to play in the season. Their performances against the Blues and Reds may well determine where this year’s final is played.

9 (9)-Cheetahs-After a hard fought battle with the Bulls, we now know the ceiling for the Cheetahs. Like the Lions, the question will be how well they can translate this year’s conclusion into a new beginning next year.

8 (8)-Waratahs-The Tahs had their chance to be a legitimate contender this weekend and whiffed. Pressure is now almost as huge as the Bulls forwards who will be smashing them this weekend.

7 (5)-Highlanders-Sigh. That was nice while it lasted. Actually, despite the massively disappointing loss to the Lions, the Highlanders still largely control their own destiny. This weekend they will pass the losers of the Bulls and Waratahs game if they beat the Force. The final week of the season the Bulls and Sharks play. Again, a victory over the Blues will give the Highlanders another place up in the rankings. The Blues situation in that last game (i.e. will they have anything to gain with a win) will be a huge factor.

6 (7)-Sharks-Big day for the Sharks. The Highlander loss and Shark win swung momentum as much for them as their loss and the Stormers’ win the week before.

5 (6)-Bulls-It only seems fitting that Victor Matfield would get one last push for a title in his last season as a Bull.

4 (4)-Blues-The Blues will need every bit of rest and preparation time the bye afforded against the Chiefs this weekend.

3 (3)-Stormers-Whatever the spin out of South Africa says, the Stormers lack of attack is a major concern. Only the Rebels have less bonus points. They very likely will have won more games than the Crusaders or Blues, yet still have to fly to New Zealand for a semi-final.

2 (2)-Crusaders-Stu Dickinson can steal a win from the Crusaders, but not their place in the Power Rankings. Of all the injuries, the loss of Andy Ellis, surprisingly, may have been the most significant. The back line just hasn’t been striking without good quick ball from an over matched Willie Heinz.

1 (1)-Reds-All that stands between the Reds and home field throughout the playoffs are the Brumbies, Force, and Chiefs. The hard works been done, they just need to finish.

On to the rankings!

This Week’s Ranking (Last Week’s Ranking)

15 (15)-The Brumbies coaching staff has questioned the heart of their squad. Their comments were confirmed when Matt Giteau took a draw. After a miserable season, what is the difference between a two point draw and a bonus point loss? The loss shows you have the guts and heart to try something positive. Australia should not be one bit sad to lose Giteau who has gone from sublime to pathetic.

14 (14)-Lions-Have you ever seen as many tries scored off of kicks in a game of rugby union as this weekend with the Lions and Waratahs?

13 (13)-Rebels-Rod McQueen deserves some credit. Two of the Rebels tries came directly from line out moves. It goes to prove that a solid, well drilled set piece can keep an outclassed team in a match. The Rebs may be many things, but they were not unprepared.

12 (12)-Hurricanes-Hurricane fans may not be watching anymore, but the All Blacks selectors will be desperately hoping to see a back line of Weepu, Cruden, Nonu, Smith, Gear, and Jane start clicking at the end of this season. Those players should look at the rest of the Super Rugby season as trials for the national team.

11 (10)-Force-Given his history in clutch situations, it was shocking to see James O’Connor miss the potential game winner this weekend.

10 (9)-Chiefs-Ian Foster has had a great run in Hamilton. The trip to the final two years ago was a fine crowning achievement. Still, it seems that he might have stayed on a year or two too long. Better coaching might have made this squad a play-off team. Most damning is Foster’s record against New Zealand sides.

9 (11)-Cheetahs-The Cheetahs are still alive, barely, in the race for the postseason fourteen weeks in. Whoever decided that trying to out muscle the Bulls and Sharks in a ten man game was for the birds, shifting this team to an attacking mindset, deserves a raise. The Cheetahs are no longer easy beats and they are actually fun to watch.

8 (7)-Waratahs-This weekend’s game against the Sharks will be the biggest of the season for the Waratahs. A victory will put them in a good place and kill the Sharks. They will have momentum. On the other hand, a loss not only hurts their place on the table but also will dent their confidence heading into an even more dire set of games against the Bulls and Highlanders.

7 (5)-Sharks-The Sharks have struggled in recent years to put together a complete season. In ’09 they lost four of their last five to slip to 6th. In ’10, they started 0-5 before going on a 7-1 run at the end of the season. This year is starting to shape up like ’09.

6 (8)-Bulls-Before this weekend the Bulls had done nothing more than keep in touch of the top six. They now control their own destiny with four big games, three at home. Even if they do make it, it is hard to see them beating the Reds or a Kiwi side in a foreign soil semi-final.

5 (6)-Highlanders-The next two weeks are huge for the Highlanders. If they can get two wins and maybe a bonus point, it might be enough momentum for them to slide over the try line, even if they fall the last two weeks.

4 (2)-Blues-Pat Lam has been out coached two weeks in a row now. The Blues just seem to be off. Against the Reds they didn’t put enough men in the ruck. This week they gave the Stormers too much space in the midfield. The selection of Sherwin Stowers before Rene Ranger is absolutely baffling. Most disturbing has been the way the back line has just wilted. Defensive minded rugby is fine, but don’t waste a talented bunch of backs. One also begins to see how big of a loss Isaia Toeva is.

3 (3)-Stormers-Even after a big win, its hard to see the Stormers winning the entire competition. They were helped by a lackluster Blues team and some ignored forward passes. They need to host playoff games if they are to win them. At this point, they still place third. If that situation holds up it means a trip to New Zealand and Queensland to win it all.

2 (4)-Crusaders-Everyone is getting healthy for the Crusaders. Expect some massive performances, similar to those earlier this year.

1 (1)-Reds-The Reds will not want to have to travel for a playoff game, and won’t have to if they win this weekend against the Crusaders. This weekend is the last tough game they have in the round robin.